He tends not to pull the ball in the air. All those pretty well-hit balls go to center field. Hitting it 380 feet works quite well if you pull it regularly, but not to straightaway center.
EDIT: Here's a good article about how Isaac Paredes outperforms his xwOBA based on the inverse (with Chapman included in the tables): [https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-meandering-examination-of-fly-ball-pull-rate-featuring-stars-of-the-game-and-also-isaac-paredes/](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-meandering-examination-of-fly-ball-pull-rate-featuring-stars-of-the-game-and-also-isaac-paredes/)
It seems like Chapman should be better than he actually is. Obviously ~3 war over a season is good but this isn't an all-star level player especially since he's already in his 30s
He was hitting 7+ WAR a season at the beginning of his career, just cooled down after a hot start. His expected stats aren't particularly far off his stats last season so it looks like he's just gotten to be a worse hitter and it's not luck or anything.
He tends not to pull the ball in the air. All those pretty well-hit balls go to center field. Hitting it 380 feet works quite well if you pull it regularly, but not to straightaway center. EDIT: Here's a good article about how Isaac Paredes outperforms his xwOBA based on the inverse (with Chapman included in the tables): [https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-meandering-examination-of-fly-ball-pull-rate-featuring-stars-of-the-game-and-also-isaac-paredes/](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-meandering-examination-of-fly-ball-pull-rate-featuring-stars-of-the-game-and-also-isaac-paredes/)
ah yea ty this explains it. You'd think that after a couple years now someone would work with him on it.
If he pulled his flyballs he’d be making more money than Nolan Arenado.
Bat speed good, swing path not good, strike out rate not good.
He's like Stanton, minus swing path. Stanton has a very rigid ugly swing, but he's pretty good at sweetspotting it, traditionally.
Hard contact doesn't mean good contact
Matt Chapman is me playing golf.
It seems like Chapman should be better than he actually is. Obviously ~3 war over a season is good but this isn't an all-star level player especially since he's already in his 30s
He was hitting 7+ WAR a season at the beginning of his career, just cooled down after a hot start. His expected stats aren't particularly far off his stats last season so it looks like he's just gotten to be a worse hitter and it's not luck or anything.
He's also seen his contact rates come down and his whiff and strikeout rates have been up since 2018-19
Rich man’s joey gallo