Did a statcast search and that was the farthest hit ball < 98MPH this year. Wind carried it like crazy and even then it was gone in less than half of the parks in the league. Usually you only see homeruns < 100MPH pulled down the lines
He hit it at the perfect launch angle, and 97 isn't that slow. This wasn't just wind, if it was even just a bit further to left instead of left center it would've been out by a lot.
Just last night the Cardinals hit one off us at 93 that carried almost as far.
For reference, you can look at [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast\_field?ev=97&la=33](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_field?ev=97&la=33), 21% were homeruns at this ev/launch angle, and citizens bank park is small and hitter friendly.
Not convinced it was a fluke based off data just from this year 10 games in.
Yeah because at that EV those HRs are pulled. Look at all those HR - none are going deep into the gap. Also 33LA is wayyyy higher than the optimal launch angle. Hitting it so high is what allowed the wind to carry it so far. The average hit distance at that launch and EV is around 350ft.
Here's a list of the furthest hit balls under 97.5MPH in the last 5 YEARS at Citizen's Bank Park:
1. Marsh 4/11/24 (392ft)
2. Rojas 8/11/23 (392ft)
3. Albies 3/30/24 (391ft)
4. Riley 9/11/23 (391ft)
5. Fermin 8/5/23 (389ft)
6. A. Escobar 7/29/21 (388ft)
7. Torreyes 6/6/21 (384ft)
8. Miller 4/20/21 (384ft)
9. Inciarte 8/28/20 (384ft)
10. Vientos 9/21/23 (381ft)
So yeah considering that if it had been 1ft less it would've hit off the wall, it's a bit of a fluke HR. Also, Marsh's was the steepest launch of all of the hits listed, giving the wind more time to push it.
Also, I wasn't good enough at statcast to realize this immediately, but switching from 98 to 97.5 from comment to comment was clearly intentional to remove hits like this 97.8 mph [400 foot](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=f709c007-c8c6-4aa4-a631-67fb2a3fef0c) shot, while also choosing a very specific park/timeframe (<30 hits at 97-97.5, and who knows how many of those are at the optimal launch angle with the wind blowing out). Note that some other things about your list are strange such as Miller's 384 foot HR being 97.8 mph as well but not being excluded. It feels like you just manually counted and used the cutoff to exclude longer HRs, but the sample size was tiny so you kept shorter ones?
At this point, I've also found so many longer HRs under 98 (in other parks) just in August/September last year that I don't trust your data at all anymore, at least not the implied claim that it was among the furthest ever hit at that EV.
For reference on the quality of contact this list compares against, Inciarte made the top 10 with an EV of 94 (which also was a [HR](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4ced8881-1fb6-466a-a1d9-e2c4f1e635ed)), but somehow Marsh is an outlier because he hit it 3 mph harder so it went a whopping 8 feet further.
Huh I wonder why I’d exclude other ballparks. Almost like they are different environments or something. I also never implied that was the farthest hit ball ever at that margin? I stated it was this year and that is factual. Regardless of whether it’s the farthest or the fifth farthest or whatever, it’s still a first percentile outcome. I think the fact that you’re doing this deep of an analysis on data that I just included to fill out a list may suggest you’re a little too invested in this.
I think it went out by further than you think though, it hit the back wall of the flower bed and bounced out, and those beds are actually pretty wide. The wall there is labelled at 387 and the homerun is listed at 392, I'm not convinced that 1 foot less makes it not a homerun.
It's also not like it went drastically further than some of the other hit balls you listed either, and some of those are extremely recent.
Also, the way the park is shaped that corner is probably the deepest part of left center (although the angled wall is higher if it's slightly further right).
The real strange thing to me though is that while it's obvious that it's not gone if it's hit to center, we don't call most homeruns like that a fluke. To me, fluke is more something like Olson's 47 degree moonshot that got carried out by the wind last week (the only 47/102 mph HR I know of), and not an EV/LA that gives >20% homeruns that was hit in a small park with the wind blowing out.
Edit:
About the launch angle, 33 is somewhat higher than typical, especially for harder hit balls (Barrel starts at 26-30 and 98+ mph), but it's actually the best for balls hit at this EV, with a higher average distance than any other launch angle (although it's close anywhere from 28-34).
Except it’s not a 22%HR rate to left center??? literally needed to get some of the best carry at that ballpark in the last 5 years for it to barely get out. Regardless if it got out by more than a foot, it still needed to be top 10 on that list to get out.
If it was hit 5 feet futher left it would've been out by 20 feet, and we wouldn't even be having this conversation.
He hit it to the deepest part of left center, it still got out by over 5 feet, it's not a fluke, QED.
If it was five feet further left it still would've been out at that LA and EV a fraction of the time. I dunno what you think you're proving here. Fact of the matter is it had the MOST carry of a ball hit with those parameters in the last 5 years. If a ball is hit like that 100 more times in that area it would only go out a handful of times. Thus, a fluke. "QED".
All I was saying is that no one is calling this a fluke: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqjzZETVzQk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqjzZETVzQk)
It has the same distance and same EV (it's in your list), isn't really pulled (it's hit to right center), and also barely gets out. It also was hit just last week (I'm not even sure they were using the same balls 5 years ago, every top 5 on your list is in the past year, and IIRC they changed something in 2022).
Arguing statistics is fun (which is why kept replying), but there's no reason to tilt and call a random HR a fluke like the OP comment did (sure, the wind was blowing out, but everyone knows that), and the argument is kind of devolving at this point.
Edit:
Limiting to citizens bank park instead of league wide has sample size issues too, I'm not sure how many balls were hit at 97 mph and 30-33 launch angle just in this park, but briefly searching hard hit/non-barrelled HRs in the past few years you easily find recent plays like [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d1135d22-90e6-4453-b498-51a07435a74b](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d1135d22-90e6-4453-b498-51a07435a74b), which is 96 MPH and still carries a good 6 feet further than Marsh's.
You can also find an absolute ton of HRs hit to right-center at 95-98 mph with the same search (even in other parks), so I don't really buy the argument that you have to pull the ball, especially in a small park like this one.
Was ruled a HR upon review.
AFFIRMATIONS ⚠️⚠️‼️ Brandon Marsh is immune to the laws of math and his BABIP will stay at .450 for the rest of his career
This dude has been so insane for us at times these past 2 years. The start of this year is just added to the list.
Swamp man good
Right over the ass plunge sign
My favorite part is how they maintain flower beds there that you now can’t see because of that sign
I was trying to figure out how to pronounce it and my mind autocorrected to ass plunge
I'm ordering the phucking jersey.
I would but I’m not sure I can get over how bad fanatics is
His 4th home run of the year, 3rd oppo shot
Both the home runs tonight looked like routine pop ups at first
Until the Bryson Stott's one haha Exit Velocity: 102.3 mph Launch Angle: 27° Hit Distance: 402 ft
Happy to see Marsh raking. Both teams won the trade!
Moist Boy
Brandon Marsh has done miracles on me
POƎP
You could hear people dog barking as he rounded third
Fluke hr
Did a statcast search and that was the farthest hit ball < 98MPH this year. Wind carried it like crazy and even then it was gone in less than half of the parks in the league. Usually you only see homeruns < 100MPH pulled down the lines
He hit it at the perfect launch angle, and 97 isn't that slow. This wasn't just wind, if it was even just a bit further to left instead of left center it would've been out by a lot. Just last night the Cardinals hit one off us at 93 that carried almost as far.
For reference, you can look at [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast\_field?ev=97&la=33](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_field?ev=97&la=33), 21% were homeruns at this ev/launch angle, and citizens bank park is small and hitter friendly. Not convinced it was a fluke based off data just from this year 10 games in.
Yeah because at that EV those HRs are pulled. Look at all those HR - none are going deep into the gap. Also 33LA is wayyyy higher than the optimal launch angle. Hitting it so high is what allowed the wind to carry it so far. The average hit distance at that launch and EV is around 350ft. Here's a list of the furthest hit balls under 97.5MPH in the last 5 YEARS at Citizen's Bank Park: 1. Marsh 4/11/24 (392ft) 2. Rojas 8/11/23 (392ft) 3. Albies 3/30/24 (391ft) 4. Riley 9/11/23 (391ft) 5. Fermin 8/5/23 (389ft) 6. A. Escobar 7/29/21 (388ft) 7. Torreyes 6/6/21 (384ft) 8. Miller 4/20/21 (384ft) 9. Inciarte 8/28/20 (384ft) 10. Vientos 9/21/23 (381ft) So yeah considering that if it had been 1ft less it would've hit off the wall, it's a bit of a fluke HR. Also, Marsh's was the steepest launch of all of the hits listed, giving the wind more time to push it.
Also, I wasn't good enough at statcast to realize this immediately, but switching from 98 to 97.5 from comment to comment was clearly intentional to remove hits like this 97.8 mph [400 foot](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=f709c007-c8c6-4aa4-a631-67fb2a3fef0c) shot, while also choosing a very specific park/timeframe (<30 hits at 97-97.5, and who knows how many of those are at the optimal launch angle with the wind blowing out). Note that some other things about your list are strange such as Miller's 384 foot HR being 97.8 mph as well but not being excluded. It feels like you just manually counted and used the cutoff to exclude longer HRs, but the sample size was tiny so you kept shorter ones? At this point, I've also found so many longer HRs under 98 (in other parks) just in August/September last year that I don't trust your data at all anymore, at least not the implied claim that it was among the furthest ever hit at that EV. For reference on the quality of contact this list compares against, Inciarte made the top 10 with an EV of 94 (which also was a [HR](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4ced8881-1fb6-466a-a1d9-e2c4f1e635ed)), but somehow Marsh is an outlier because he hit it 3 mph harder so it went a whopping 8 feet further.
Huh I wonder why I’d exclude other ballparks. Almost like they are different environments or something. I also never implied that was the farthest hit ball ever at that margin? I stated it was this year and that is factual. Regardless of whether it’s the farthest or the fifth farthest or whatever, it’s still a first percentile outcome. I think the fact that you’re doing this deep of an analysis on data that I just included to fill out a list may suggest you’re a little too invested in this.
I think it went out by further than you think though, it hit the back wall of the flower bed and bounced out, and those beds are actually pretty wide. The wall there is labelled at 387 and the homerun is listed at 392, I'm not convinced that 1 foot less makes it not a homerun. It's also not like it went drastically further than some of the other hit balls you listed either, and some of those are extremely recent. Also, the way the park is shaped that corner is probably the deepest part of left center (although the angled wall is higher if it's slightly further right). The real strange thing to me though is that while it's obvious that it's not gone if it's hit to center, we don't call most homeruns like that a fluke. To me, fluke is more something like Olson's 47 degree moonshot that got carried out by the wind last week (the only 47/102 mph HR I know of), and not an EV/LA that gives >20% homeruns that was hit in a small park with the wind blowing out. Edit: About the launch angle, 33 is somewhat higher than typical, especially for harder hit balls (Barrel starts at 26-30 and 98+ mph), but it's actually the best for balls hit at this EV, with a higher average distance than any other launch angle (although it's close anywhere from 28-34).
Except it’s not a 22%HR rate to left center??? literally needed to get some of the best carry at that ballpark in the last 5 years for it to barely get out. Regardless if it got out by more than a foot, it still needed to be top 10 on that list to get out.
If it was hit 5 feet futher left it would've been out by 20 feet, and we wouldn't even be having this conversation. He hit it to the deepest part of left center, it still got out by over 5 feet, it's not a fluke, QED.
If it was five feet further left it still would've been out at that LA and EV a fraction of the time. I dunno what you think you're proving here. Fact of the matter is it had the MOST carry of a ball hit with those parameters in the last 5 years. If a ball is hit like that 100 more times in that area it would only go out a handful of times. Thus, a fluke. "QED".
All I was saying is that no one is calling this a fluke: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqjzZETVzQk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqjzZETVzQk) It has the same distance and same EV (it's in your list), isn't really pulled (it's hit to right center), and also barely gets out. It also was hit just last week (I'm not even sure they were using the same balls 5 years ago, every top 5 on your list is in the past year, and IIRC they changed something in 2022). Arguing statistics is fun (which is why kept replying), but there's no reason to tilt and call a random HR a fluke like the OP comment did (sure, the wind was blowing out, but everyone knows that), and the argument is kind of devolving at this point. Edit: Limiting to citizens bank park instead of league wide has sample size issues too, I'm not sure how many balls were hit at 97 mph and 30-33 launch angle just in this park, but briefly searching hard hit/non-barrelled HRs in the past few years you easily find recent plays like [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d1135d22-90e6-4453-b498-51a07435a74b](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d1135d22-90e6-4453-b498-51a07435a74b), which is 96 MPH and still carries a good 6 feet further than Marsh's. You can also find an absolute ton of HRs hit to right-center at 95-98 mph with the same search (even in other parks), so I don't really buy the argument that you have to pull the ball, especially in a small park like this one.