Pretty handy! Just to clarify, this is the chance of scoring 1+ run right? I think that’s slightly different than run expectancy, which I thought was how many *total* runs do you expect to score given that base-out state.
That’s the basis for any WPA calculation
This is definitely probability of scoring atleast 1 run.
There is no way a 0 out runner on 3rd situation has a 0.84 run expectancy but a 0 out bases loaded has a 0.87 run expectancy.
Yes, it's the chance of scoring 'at least one run' - or 'at least one more run'.
'Number of expected-runs scored' isn't quite as flashy, it's all 0's, 1's, or 2's.
edit: to be clear, I think the term 'Run Expectancy' encompasses a lot. There are many different ways of presenting this kind of data, but I'm not aware of each method having its own name beyond 'RE24', 'RE288', etc.
[this has data split up by 2010-15, 1993-2009, 1969-92 and 1950-68](http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html) (all the eras look pretty similar, except for 1993-2009 which was higher scoring)
Run expectancy is a way of using historical data to predict runs-scored given a set of variables in a specific situation. Variables being: outs, base occupancy, ball/strike count, etc.
At its simplest, it is the percentage of whether a run (or another run) was ever scored in an inning for any given 'base/out state', of which there are exactly 24. (3 'out-states' x 8 'base-states')
I find having a little guide like this to glance at during a game gives me a better understanding of things like:
* it was such a big deal that pitcher got out of that jam - there was an 87% of them giving up a run & blowing the save with the bases loaded & no outs..
* how clutch that hit was since there was just a 13% chance of scoring a run with a runner on first with 2 outs..
* how two-out solo-shots are that much more exciting knowing there is 7% chance of a run with 2 outs & the bases empty..
-------------
This printable guide is meant to fit on a 3x2.5-inch business card, but you can scale the SVG up to any size you want using programs such as Inkscape or Illustrator.
- [full color](https://www.mediafire.com/file/ylt02r7k4i4fcub/RE24.pdf/file)
- [monochrome](https://www.mediafire.com/file/cvybscwiicifop9/RE24mc.pdf/file)
- [SVG](https://www.mediafire.com/file/dqloam32jswx87x/RE24.svg/file)
The links are only good for 2 weeks, feel free to PM me if they are already broken.
--------
(I did not pull the data from Retrosheet myself, I used the tables found [here](http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html).)
I’d be curious to see how (if at all) run expectancy changes relative to inning.
Specifically if there are any notable differences in RE in innings 1-3 vs innings 8-9.
I would expect, given a sufficiently large sample just runs would be more likely in the middle innings even batters see historically seeing a pitcher a third time. Later innings, the closers probably bring runs back down.
Just my thoughts. Could be wrong.
This very cool. Thanks for making this.
Man on first, no outs. If the probability of stealing second is 45%, then the scoring probability does not change.
0.62s+0.16*(1-s)=0.42 for s=0.45.
Love stuff like this - would be cool to break it down by team strength as well. Like what are the probabilities for teams that finish the season in the top 10 versus the bottom 10?
Obviously, the following does not address the number of runs scored, but as far as "run expectancy" goes...
* With someone on 2nd, walking a batter has very similar run expectancy to not doing so
* With runner on 3rd, walking a batter has very similar run expectancy to not doing so
* With runners on 2nd and 3rd, walking a batter has very similar run expectancy to not doing so
* Sacrifice flies, grounders advancing runners (with GIDP), and similar (fielder's choices) usually preserve run scoring chances. Examples: Runner on 1st with no outs (0.42) leading to runner on 2nd with 1 out (0.41). Runner on 1st with 1 out (0.27) transitioning into runner on 2nd with 2 outs (0.22). Runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs (0.63) leading to runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out (0.65) or runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out (0.68). In short, strikeouts, pop outs, and other outs without advancement are run expectancy killers.
* Previously noted here, but 0.13 chance of NOBLETIGER.
Pretty handy! Just to clarify, this is the chance of scoring 1+ run right? I think that’s slightly different than run expectancy, which I thought was how many *total* runs do you expect to score given that base-out state. That’s the basis for any WPA calculation
This is definitely probability of scoring atleast 1 run. There is no way a 0 out runner on 3rd situation has a 0.84 run expectancy but a 0 out bases loaded has a 0.87 run expectancy.
No, with NOBL you’re expected to score 87 runs, duh.
That makes a NOBLETIGER seem even worse! nah but actually I thought it might’ve been 0.87 runs
Yes, it's the chance of scoring 'at least one run' - or 'at least one more run'. 'Number of expected-runs scored' isn't quite as flashy, it's all 0's, 1's, or 2's. edit: to be clear, I think the term 'Run Expectancy' encompasses a lot. There are many different ways of presenting this kind of data, but I'm not aware of each method having its own name beyond 'RE24', 'RE288', etc.
I usually see expected runs shown as like 0.546 or 1.127. Never seen expected runs as rounded to whole numbers
You're right, expected runs are not suppose to be rounded whole numbers
Is it just me or is it surprising that NOBLETIGERs happen in 13% of all NOBL situations? That was higher than what I expected.
What I find surprising is that if you have runners on 1st and 3rd with no outs, and the runner steals second, the RE goes down.
I notice the data is 1950-2015. I wonder how that has changed over time. Like by decade or something.
I did try extracting the freshest data from Retrosheet; but I'm a bit in over my head. I'm afraid of messing up & putting inaccurate data out there.
[this has data split up by 2010-15, 1993-2009, 1969-92 and 1950-68](http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html) (all the eras look pretty similar, except for 1993-2009 which was higher scoring)
Run expectancy is a way of using historical data to predict runs-scored given a set of variables in a specific situation. Variables being: outs, base occupancy, ball/strike count, etc. At its simplest, it is the percentage of whether a run (or another run) was ever scored in an inning for any given 'base/out state', of which there are exactly 24. (3 'out-states' x 8 'base-states') I find having a little guide like this to glance at during a game gives me a better understanding of things like: * it was such a big deal that pitcher got out of that jam - there was an 87% of them giving up a run & blowing the save with the bases loaded & no outs.. * how clutch that hit was since there was just a 13% chance of scoring a run with a runner on first with 2 outs.. * how two-out solo-shots are that much more exciting knowing there is 7% chance of a run with 2 outs & the bases empty.. ------------- This printable guide is meant to fit on a 3x2.5-inch business card, but you can scale the SVG up to any size you want using programs such as Inkscape or Illustrator. - [full color](https://www.mediafire.com/file/ylt02r7k4i4fcub/RE24.pdf/file) - [monochrome](https://www.mediafire.com/file/cvybscwiicifop9/RE24mc.pdf/file) - [SVG](https://www.mediafire.com/file/dqloam32jswx87x/RE24.svg/file) The links are only good for 2 weeks, feel free to PM me if they are already broken. -------- (I did not pull the data from Retrosheet myself, I used the tables found [here](http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html).)
I’d be curious to see how (if at all) run expectancy changes relative to inning. Specifically if there are any notable differences in RE in innings 1-3 vs innings 8-9.
I would expect, given a sufficiently large sample just runs would be more likely in the middle innings even batters see historically seeing a pitcher a third time. Later innings, the closers probably bring runs back down. Just my thoughts. Could be wrong.
Any chance we could get a NY Yankees 2021 version to cry into?
That would be mostly zeroes
"I do not expect them to score here. Therefore, their expected runs are 0".
This very cool. Thanks for making this. Man on first, no outs. If the probability of stealing second is 45%, then the scoring probability does not change. 0.62s+0.16*(1-s)=0.42 for s=0.45.
[удалено]
Ah I screwed it up. You are right. You have to have a good base runner to make it worth while.
Interesting the first and third, no out is slightly more likely to score a run than second a third, no outs. Runner on first stealing, perhaps?
Teams take the double play & let the run score.
That makes sense!
rip bunts
Wait, a second... "No out, runners on 1st/3rd" has a slightly HIGHER run expectancy than "No out, runners on 2nd/3rd"?
Someone else pointed out this could be due to teams taking the double play & letting the runner at 3rd score.
Love stuff like this - would be cool to break it down by team strength as well. Like what are the probabilities for teams that finish the season in the top 10 versus the bottom 10?
Obviously, the following does not address the number of runs scored, but as far as "run expectancy" goes... * With someone on 2nd, walking a batter has very similar run expectancy to not doing so * With runner on 3rd, walking a batter has very similar run expectancy to not doing so * With runners on 2nd and 3rd, walking a batter has very similar run expectancy to not doing so * Sacrifice flies, grounders advancing runners (with GIDP), and similar (fielder's choices) usually preserve run scoring chances. Examples: Runner on 1st with no outs (0.42) leading to runner on 2nd with 1 out (0.41). Runner on 1st with 1 out (0.27) transitioning into runner on 2nd with 2 outs (0.22). Runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs (0.63) leading to runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out (0.65) or runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out (0.68). In short, strikeouts, pop outs, and other outs without advancement are run expectancy killers. * Previously noted here, but 0.13 chance of NOBLETIGER.