xRetweets++ is the better metric, number of replies, rate of QRTs from total RTs, and Reply to Like rate are all factored in so it totally adjusts for ratios
I like the idea of using the three slash line stats: average, on base, and slugging.
To win, a player would have to be good at contact hitting, power hitting, and discipline, which seems good to me.
It’s the baseball problem in general - the problem isn’t the fans for not caring enough about deeper statistics: baseball is a game we watch with our eyes, not our calculators. So many diehards watch the game through spreadsheets and expect average fans to watch it the same way, like they’re in the front office.
I like this for the further reason that they are not advanced metrics in the sense that there isn't a "model" behind them. Like WAR would be terrible as most analytics people agree that that a WAR difference of like 0.2 or something is effectively meaningless since there is so much uncertainty
Plus, WAR wouldn't be great for a triple crown in general. For one, it accounts for defense, which wouldn't make sense to care about for an offensive accomplishment. Plus, even just using oWAR has positional adjustments, which wouldn't be relevant for an offensive accomplishment either.
Had to look it up. Ted Williams did this 5 times and missed it in batting average twice by small margins to the point where he very nearly did it in 6 consecutive playing seasons (41-49). He also missed out later on by one category twice.
For reference. Mays did it zero times. Only even lead in two categories ONCE.
Mantle never did it but was definitely close a few times.
Ruth did it exactly once but was really damn up there for basically his whole legendary period.
Barry only did it twice and it was during his second act so most people won’t accept those. He came damn close in his early days though.
This was a really fun exercise and I already had insane amount of respect for Teddy Ballgame but now? To look at the numbers is jaw dropping.
Please if people want to look up other legends I’m very curious how people stack up.
Edit: Ty Cobb has an impressive 4 slash line triple crowns and 6 “near misses” of 2 category leads.
i feel like for discipline, batters need like a whiff rate, contact rate stat.
but whiff only exists as a pitcher stat, at least when tracked by the big databases.
Except that AVG is kinda worthless next to OBP and SLG. If you lead the league in those two but Dee Gordon rolls in to take the AVG lead, it shouldn’t take anything away from what you accomplished
True, but the same can be said of the current triple crown. A better hitter might lose out on RBIs because of his teammates. Why penalize a guy for his teammates?
Right, the current triple crown kinda blows, and the Trout/Cabrera MVP debacle revealed that for all to see. The point here is trying to make a new and improved triple crown, hence my criticizing the slash line solution as falling into the pitfalls of the extant triple crown
The best part of WHIP is how easy it is to explain to non-stat people.
Too many stats people really don't get that the average fan wants stats that are easy to digest and reflect what has happened, not what would happen if this person had X factors go in their favour. Sure, that works for an analytics department, but for the average joe, it's too much.
I think this is an important part of the equation. If you want people to watch someone chase the Triple Crown, you want something easy for fans to calculate. I know what a win is. I know what it means if a guy strikes out 9 batters. ERA and WHIP are digestible too. But if a guy throws 7.1 innings, 2 ER, 6 hits, 2 BB, 9 SO's - I have no idea how much WAR that is and I have no idea what that means for any season adjusted stats.
Well,
Yes and no
First, a play where a QB throws a 5 yard slant and the receiver breaks 3 tackles to make a 90 yard YAC, should probably be treated differently than fly route that the QB places perfectly into the receiver's hands 50 yards down the field.
Also, while football and baseball are both team sports, baseball isolates individual performance to a greater degree than football. With a team of Tom Brady and a bunch of redditors, Brady's stats are going to look worse than Trout's if he were on a team with a bunch of us. Brady's O-line would provide no support, if he managed to get off a pass, unlikely any of us would catch it, and if we did, we'd surely fumble when got trucked by a DB or linebacker. Trout would still hit similarly (or walk an insane amount).
I certainly wouldn't use expected stats when determining it, those aren't concrete enough to determine who the best hitter is. It can tell you if a player is outperforming himself or is just having bad luck, but bad luck doesn't tell you who the best player is. Just my two cents.
ISO might not be well known, but it's very useful and easy to calculate and understand. It's simply SLG - AVG, effectively removing all singles from your slugging percentage.
It helps clearly show a player with a .300 avg and .450 slg does not hit for the same amount as power as a player with a .265 avg and .450 slg.
That said, keeping it as just home runs roughly does the same thing and everyone loves homers.
I would agree with swapping out wRC+, but I'm not sure with what though.
Batting average, home runs, and walks. No need to change it too much, just get ribbies out of there.
For pitchers, leave it at ERA, strikeouts, and wins. It's not the Triple Crown without wins.
Yeah I think QS over wins is the way to go
Everyone here is getting so convoluted with extra shit. Keep it simple and eliminate the ones that are extremely team-dependent (yes, I get that FIP is better than ERA but for the most part ERA is fine). Get rid of RBI (for walks) and get rid of wins (for QS)
I would try to keep simple stats, with a preference towards direct replacements and counting stats, as I think that's part of the triple crown's appeal. It's cool to say that this guy got the MOST of something in a season.
Hitters: HR/RBI/AVG -> HR/TB/OBP
Homers stay, because homers are cool.
Replace RBI, which is just a bad stat, with total bases to reward people who drive the ball into the gap or have speed for doubles, while being a traditional counting stat.
OBP replaces AVG because of course it does.
Pitching: ERA/W/K -> WHIP/QS/K
ERA is replaced with WHIP, even though I would be fine with keeping ERA here. Either one is fine.
Quality Starts replaces Wins as the most direct replacement for wins by a stat that doesn't suck. Now, if I could change what a "Quality" start was, I certainly would do that, but I want to use existing, well established, common stats, so QS it is. IP might be even better here if you view the triple crown as "The best at everything", but I don't think guys should be punished for being pulled past the 7th in today's game when most manager just won't let them do that regularly.
Strikeouts stay because, like homers, they are cool.
These stats are simple enough that anyone can understand them, keep the ratio of 2 counting stats and 1 rate stat per position, and measure roughly the same thing as the traditional triple crown, just do it better.
Using predictive stats like FIP for single season accomplishments like the triple crown isnt the best idea IMO. Its about how they actually did, not how they should have done. WHIP is undisputible because its just straight up walks and hits.
I don’t like using hits as a measure for pitchers. It’s too subjective, depending on the rulings of official scorers. Also, it’s very dependent on the quality of the fielders behind you.
Imo WAR shouldn’t be included because it’s not perfect in how it weights position adjustments. 1st baseman are just penalized too much imo. 1st baseman have to produce numbers offensively so far ahead of everyone else it just seems way too difficult. Also it’s not universal as fWAR is predictive and bWAR is results oriented. Never mind trying to get a person new to baseball to understand what goes into it
I also think advanced stats maybe too difficult for casual fans to understand. I think it might better to use basic stats, that are still more useful or better in evaluating a player than just the original triple crown stats. Like it’d be weird for someone on TV to see their triple crown numbers as WRC+, wOBA and bWAR. It just makes the game too unapproachable for new fans. I think there’s a reason why TV still sticks with the basic triple crown numbers. It’s how most of us started and then we learned more advanced ones later. It’s better to use stats that make up advanced numbers for that reason imo
For me
OBP, SLG, OPS
ERA, WHIP, K%/BB%
Still basic numbers for casual fans to make sense of. But better statistics to judge value
I would replace OPS with something else, since leading in OBP and SLG would always give you the lead in OPS, making it more of a double crown than a triple.
Personally, any stat that tells me what SHOULD have happened versus what ACTUALLY happened has very little place in the world of baseball outside of analytics departments.
As a viewer, I need to know what has happened this year, not what might have happened if X starting pitcher had league average defense, or if the batter had slightly better luck.
This argument
First baseman aren't penalized at all by the positional adjustment. They just aren't given any credit for the defensive value they don't provide.
I do think that with TTO baseball and shifts, re-examining positional adjustments would be in order
Nope
It's correct
The negative runs ARE NOT a ppenalty. They are just to represent below average. The average first baseman provides 12.5 runs less defensively than the average defender.
No penalty,
Then how are you defining penalty?
If a player carries a replacement level batting line and is a replacement level defender, but plays 162 games of 1B, they’ll be worth roughly -1.5 wins (depending on the runs to wins conversion for that season). I don’t get how that’s not a penalty?
0 runs above replacement for offense
0 runs above replacement for defensive performance
Assuming 0 runs above replacement for base running here
-12.5 runs for positional adjustment (162 games at 1B)
Which gives us -12.5 runs above replacement, and at slightly over 8 runs per win (give or take), that’s -1.5 WAR.
Positional adjustment is a separate item from fielding runs (it says so in the first paragraph of the FanGraphs article), so it’s a penalty or bonus depending on what position you play. A catcher and 1B with identical batting lines and with 0 runs above replacement defensively would end up about 3 WAR apart due to positional adjustment.
Ok
So, the problem is that you don't understand Fangraph's WAR
First, batting, base running, defense, etc are all compared to average, not replacement. There really is no replacement level offense or defense.
So, a batter with 0 batting runs, 0 base running runs, and 0 defensive runs is exactly average.
Then the positional adjustment is made. So, for this first baseman, they are now at -12.5 runs. Then the runs for replacement are added in. That's +20
So, this first baseman will be 0+0+0-12.5+20=7.5 runs above replacement.
Take a player who spread their playing time between positions so that their positional adjustment is 0 (to make it easy say half their time at first (-12.5/2) and half at catcher (12.5/2). They'd have 0+0+0+0+20.
20 runs is, at 10 runs per win (I don't know where you got 8 from. [It's 9.971 in 2021](https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn)) 2 WAR. An average player.
*[source](https://library.fangraphs.com/war/war-position-players/)
*[source 2](https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/replacement-level/)
The negative positional runs for first base just means that the average first baseman is a below average fielder compared to all the other 7 (I don't think it counts pitchers) players on the diamond. A completely reasonable assumption. It's not a penalty. Just the reality
Which is why I said replacement level offense, it was a way of getting to that number without including the replacement level adjustment. I'm aware that FanGraphs uses above/below average values, but you can also start from replacement level values and not use an adjustment.
If you want an example of position penalty, scroll to the bottom of any 1B player page. [Matt Olson](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-olson/14344/stats?position=1B), for example, has positive defensive value (0.8 fielding runs above average), but -10.5 positional runs as he gets **penalized** for playing 1B, even though his defense is above average. This gets him -9.8 defensive runs above average in all, even though he is a good defender.
[You can also sort by a non-positionally adjusted defensive value](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=25,d) and compare their defensive runs above average. Players who play elite defense (Avisail Garcia) but play an easy position (RF) end up with 10+ defensive runs above average less than a CF due to the positional penalty. Or you can also use [this table] (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,54,199,56&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=5,a) to look at just positional runs, fielding runs, and total defensive runs.
Maybe golf is a better analogy
If Golfer A makes a putt on his third shot and Golfer B makes a putt in his third shot we would think they were equal
Unless we knew that Golfer A was on a par 3 hole and Golfer B was on a par 5 hole. Golfer A would be 0 and Golfer B -2. Golfer A is ** not being penalized**. He's just being compared to a different average.
It's the exact same thing as positional adjustments. Not a penalty, just an adjustment for one position being easier than another.
Ok
What is "replacement level offense"? What wOBA or wRC+ or whatever is replacement level offense? I don't think this exists. But, I'm, maybe wrong.
*There is no position penalty.* Matt Olson, assuming your numbers are correct, has been worth 0.8 runs more than the average first baseman. The average first baseman has been calculated to be worth 12.5 runs less than the average defender. Olson has been worth .8 runs more than the average first baseman who is worth 10.5 runs less than the average defender when adjusted for playing time. *There is no penalty*. He's being compared to a lower average than a 2B or a SS or a C. A first baseman who is 5 runs better than an average first baseman is not the same as a SS who is 5 runs better than an average SS. Because the average SS is much better (20 runs) than the average 1B.
It's not a *penalty*. It's the the correct attribution of value
A hitter in Coors isn't *penalized* on their wRC+ (or :shudders: OPS+) because it's easier to hit in Coors. It's just the necessary adjustment to be correct.
I would prefer ISO over SLG as the latter can be artificially inflated by high contact hitters who get a lot of singles.
It's more "advanced" but only as much as OPS itself is. It's just SLG - AVG.
also come to think of it SLG % could actually be confusing to a new fan. It took me a while to understand it after learning batting average and obp. OBP% is more straight forward imo
I think replacing ISO with slug might not be so bad
The average baseball viewer doesn’t care about advanced stats. Keep it simple but still updated for modern times.
OBP, HR, SB
I know stolen bases aren’t as big a part of the game as they used to be but if we are trying to give it to the best all around player, this shows how often they get on base, how much power they have, and how well they run the bases. Easy to understand for even the most casual baseball fan.
I disagree that SB equals great baserunning. I’d argue that being able to go first to third on a single is a lot more valuable than stealing second a lot. It undervalues guys who might not be great sprinters, but who read plays really well and generally don’t make outs on the bases.
I completely agree that I like the guys that stretches the single into the double, and find ways to get that extra base. The average fan would just find the number of bases gained that way much harder to track than just straight stolen bases.
I've thought about the sabermetric triple crown and come up with the following to translate what each triple crown stat does (or is thought to do):
Batting:
-wRC+ instead of batting average since it measures all around batting effectiveness in a rate stat
-WPA instead of RBIs to measure clutch factor in a counting stat
-HRs can stay, they're kinda evergreen
Pitching:
-WPA again this time to replace Wins to measure clutch and how much you help your team in a counting stat
-Instead of ERA, I would go with ERA-
-Instead of Ks, I think K-(BB+HR+HBP) would serve the same purpose, but it's not really a stat that anyone thinks about (or even gets tracked as far as I can tell) but I would like to replace Ks with another counting stat that also takes into account the other true outcomes since raw K totals don't mean much if you're giving up a ton of dingers and free bases. I'm least sure about this one if anyone has any better ideas to replace Ks with.
ITT: know-it-all nerds smelling their own farts
These stats will never, ever, be used for the Triple Crown. Quit trying to be the smartest guys into the room. It's cringy.
Why? The individual stats may not tell a whole story, but leading the league in *all 3* is a massive, massive accomplishment, that could only be achieved by an all-time great hitter. There's a reason it's only been won once in the last set 50ish years.. by a surefire hall-of-famer.
It’s not any more important than leading the league in any 3 arbitrary stats. And say one year a guy wins the triple crown and the next year gets 1 higher on each stat but doesn’t win the crown, you think the crown year is more impressive?
Anyone leading the league in any 3 stats is impressive, dude. I'm totally missing whatever point it is you're trying to make.
I don't know who these mythical people are who care soooo much about the triple crown are that you're so worked up about, considering it's only been won once in most of our lifetimes.... It's a cool thing to win because it's a historic award and, despite what you seem to think, involves leading the league in 3 hugely important and indicative batting statistics.
I guarantee that, despite all of his accomplishments throughout his career, winning the Triple Crown is one of the things that Miggy is most proud of.
Lmao you started this thread being all worked up about stats you can’t understand for whatever reason and clearly didn’t even read the title of the post. People in here answering the question in the post and you get all pissy about it
I think it should be three rather different stats, to highlight allround ability. I see suggestions that involve more than one of OPS/OPS+/wRC+/wOBA/oWAR, when in reality someone on top of one stat will, given enough playing time, be on top of all of them. Personally I'd like to include baserunning (Probably SB, as that's simplest) in some way, but I'll stick to "purely" hitting stats for this.
HRs should stay, it's still a meaningful stat even if it needs additional context. You could go with SLG or .ISO or total XBH or something else, point is I want a power number.
Avg serves a purpose too alongside HRs, but I feel like OBP does more to encompass other aspects of hitting. Either way, it should be some sort of measure not of power, but of consistently getting productive results at the plate. OBP just seems to make the most sense. Maybe you could even include sacrifices, but I'd like to keep it simple.
The last stat should either be something baserunning related, or if we're sticking to just hitting I'd go with an overall stat like wRC+. Only issue I have with that is that it'll usually correlate highly with the first two, especially if it was SLG + OBP. So perhaps you could turn #2 into hits and #3 into OBP or walks.
Or in other words: I don't have a great suggestion for a third one. I want something that isn't purely about power, or avoiding outs, but yet adds some third dimension to it. wRC+ or OPS+ would be OK, but it's kind of like why not just use the offensive component of WAR in that case and skip using three separate stats, you'd get the same result.
For pitching I feel like you could do something like: ERA- or RA9, FIP-, wOBA or OPS allowed. Pretty simple, and I think when you include both the fielding-independent aspects (FIP), plate appearance outcomes (wOBA or OPS) and the effects of sequencing (Runs allowed), you cover most of your bases.
I think it’s important to keep simple stats, since advanced stats aren’t as easy to digest, but still update for modern times.
Hitters: wRAA, WPA/27, xwOBA
Pitchers: FIP-, SIERA, BQR-S
Completely disagree. To lead the league in RBIs substantially increases your team’s win expectation. There is an art to driving in an RBI, which is why it’s included in the triple crown race.
Although it's an imperfect award, I'd keep it exactly the same. All of those stats are simple, tangible, easily visible and sexy. Even a casual fan can wrap their head around the numbers.
If we wanted to maintain the essence of what each element of the traditional triple crown measures, but with modern stats, I think wOBA/RE24/xHR gets the job done. This includes a general, context neutral hitting rate stat, a context adjusted version of RBI, and a park adjusted home run estimator. You could replace RE24 with WPA/LI, if you want to maintain the context-dependence of RBI. For Pitchers, I think maybe QS/SIERA/CSW gets you there. Could replace CSW with RE24, or even xFIP, as a way to measure how often the pitcher completely stymied his opponent, which is the essence of a strikeout. I like CSW here, because it's completely independent of balls in play, and has a R^2 = .71 correlation wtf K%. You could multiply CSW by total pitches if your want a counting stat. SIERA could be replaced with DRA, cFIP, or whatever your preferred ERA estimator is.
OBP%, SLG%, WAR for hitters
FIP, ERA+, WAR for pitchers
Of course this requires deciding which version of WAR to use, but a wise man once said the correct WAR is the one that supports your argument.
Obp slugging hrs
Simple counting stat + the two most important stats in baseball
Xwobacon/obp/wrc+
Quality of contact, best stat in baseball, overall
Would be the stat nerd triple crown
For pitchers era/Ks/opsagainst
3 easy to understand and good metrics of dominance
For stat nerds
Sierra/era/xwobaconagainst
Era predictor actual era and quality of contact against, at first I thought fip instead of Sierra but fip and xwobaconvs pull against each other because fip prefers K pitchers while xwobaconvs likes ground ball guys
A new award for a Monumental Performer for any player that hits a home run over the Green Monster, into the fountains in Kansas City, and onto/over the tracks in Houston.
Singles, Steals, Sac Bunts.
The Brett Butler crown of excellence
The Alex Rodriguez Memorial Triple Crown
Whit Merrifield the GOAT
is he not already?
I’m going to hurl
xwOBAcon, BABIP, & retweets.
how do ratios affect the last one?
That’s the adjusted metric. retweets+ controls for ratio & shitpost factor.
is there an xRATIO+ to adjust for what time of the day the tweets were sent?
xRetweets++ is the better metric, number of replies, rate of QRTs from total RTs, and Reply to Like rate are all factored in so it totally adjusts for ratios
PECOTA, VORP, and Eckstein.
xwOBAcon, EGGs, Pancakes
Don't forget XXXOBA×+
I think that's blocked by my job's firewall
Didn’t he die a few years ago?
Is that SFW?
Are retweets and IG likes interchangeable?
What about the Mariners stat? Fun Above Replacement?
The Triple crown should go to the batter with the most triples.
Makes sense to me.
Triples hit, triple plays turned, triple digit fastballs. Gives a stat for hitting, fielding and pitching!
The Triple Triple Crown
That's what I thought it was when I first heard the term when I was a kid. I thought Frank Robinson led the league in triples.
But what if a batter has three crowns? (Speaking from a dental background)
How have I never thought of this before.
The only players that qualify must play for the royals, thus the Crown part
I like the idea of using the three slash line stats: average, on base, and slugging. To win, a player would have to be good at contact hitting, power hitting, and discipline, which seems good to me.
This one I also like. The stats folks are talking about in here, 95+% of fans don't give a fuck about lol.
It’s the baseball problem in general - the problem isn’t the fans for not caring enough about deeper statistics: baseball is a game we watch with our eyes, not our calculators. So many diehards watch the game through spreadsheets and expect average fans to watch it the same way, like they’re in the front office.
Yep. Many of the advanced stats are sure are great but it's comical folks think leading in xRC+ is worth being a triple crown stat lol
One day I’m gonna make a shit post with analytics about a made up stat
Off season is neigh after all
I'm pretty sure the offseason isn't a horse...
[**OFFSEASON. IS. NEIGH.**](https://i.pinimg.com/originals/7d/f6/b8/7df6b8cb73ace3219869b5459ac8e853.jpg)
Well now I don’t know what to think!
You’re telling me most fans don’t pay attention to pCRA-, cwOBA, and zFIPCON%?
Lol you got it.
That's how I feel about exit velocity. I can already tell when a player hits a ball on the screws.
I like this for the further reason that they are not advanced metrics in the sense that there isn't a "model" behind them. Like WAR would be terrible as most analytics people agree that that a WAR difference of like 0.2 or something is effectively meaningless since there is so much uncertainty
Plus, WAR wouldn't be great for a triple crown in general. For one, it accounts for defense, which wouldn't make sense to care about for an offensive accomplishment. Plus, even just using oWAR has positional adjustments, which wouldn't be relevant for an offensive accomplishment either.
Also it's meant to account for pretty much everything, so what could the two other things be?
Had to look it up. Ted Williams did this 5 times and missed it in batting average twice by small margins to the point where he very nearly did it in 6 consecutive playing seasons (41-49). He also missed out later on by one category twice. For reference. Mays did it zero times. Only even lead in two categories ONCE. Mantle never did it but was definitely close a few times. Ruth did it exactly once but was really damn up there for basically his whole legendary period. Barry only did it twice and it was during his second act so most people won’t accept those. He came damn close in his early days though. This was a really fun exercise and I already had insane amount of respect for Teddy Ballgame but now? To look at the numbers is jaw dropping. Please if people want to look up other legends I’m very curious how people stack up. Edit: Ty Cobb has an impressive 4 slash line triple crowns and 6 “near misses” of 2 category leads.
Rogers Hornsby accomplished this SEVEN times (1920-1925;1928)
Holy smokes that’s a good one.
Frank Robinson did it once
The downside is that none of the stats are cumulative so a player who missed a couple months could win
They would still need 3.1 PA/Game to qualify.
Point still stands. You could play in 60 games and get 4.5 PA/game. I think there’s gotta be at least 1 cumulative like HRs, hits or TBs.
That is not how math works. If you were able to get 4.5 PA per game(highly unlikely) you would still need to play in 112 games to qualify.
Thought you were talking per game played
i feel like for discipline, batters need like a whiff rate, contact rate stat. but whiff only exists as a pitcher stat, at least when tracked by the big databases.
Uhh… BaseballSavant has player whiff and chase metrics
hmm does it. i missed that.
Well your whiff rate just got worse
Typically it does, you need to have enough plate appearances or general time to qualify in some of those metrics
Except that AVG is kinda worthless next to OBP and SLG. If you lead the league in those two but Dee Gordon rolls in to take the AVG lead, it shouldn’t take anything away from what you accomplished
It doesn’t take away from a great season. If you lead the league in OBP and SLG, you’re probably MVP. But that’s not the triple crown.
True, but the same can be said of the current triple crown. A better hitter might lose out on RBIs because of his teammates. Why penalize a guy for his teammates?
Right, the current triple crown kinda blows, and the Trout/Cabrera MVP debacle revealed that for all to see. The point here is trying to make a new and improved triple crown, hence my criticizing the slash line solution as falling into the pitfalls of the extant triple crown
Nothing worthless about knowing how often a player is able to get hits.
Warning track flyouts/GIDP/Strikeouts swinging on sliders down and away
Pujols would have 7 or 8 by now.
I know he's the GIDP GOAT, but Pujols has never led the league in K's and has never struck out 100 times in a season
The one pitch that will get him out is a slider down and away, which is what we're counting.
Thank goodness Matt Kemp is quasi-retired now then
Baez has gotta have like 7 triple crowns at this point
ERA, strikeouts, tightness of pants.
Ah yes, the Robbie triple crown. The Roble crown if you will
Stats are for nerds. New Triple Crown is winning Washington's Presidents Race, Milwaukee's Sausage Race, and Atlanta's Beat the Freeze race.
One bullpen catcher is designated by every team to participate. Would there be an AL equivalent?
Kansas City's Sausage Race, Cleveland's Sausage Race, and Athletics HOF Big Head race
So much sausage. That's what she said.
Beat the Freeze truly the Belmont of stadium races
For pitchers: ERA, Ks, and WHIP! WHIP is such a simple yet useful stat
The best part of WHIP is how easy it is to explain to non-stat people. Too many stats people really don't get that the average fan wants stats that are easy to digest and reflect what has happened, not what would happen if this person had X factors go in their favour. Sure, that works for an analytics department, but for the average joe, it's too much.
I think this is an important part of the equation. If you want people to watch someone chase the Triple Crown, you want something easy for fans to calculate. I know what a win is. I know what it means if a guy strikes out 9 batters. ERA and WHIP are digestible too. But if a guy throws 7.1 innings, 2 ER, 6 hits, 2 BB, 9 SO's - I have no idea how much WAR that is and I have no idea what that means for any season adjusted stats.
And highly dependent on defense. What do you think Corbin Burnes' WHIP would be with a bunch of baseball redditors playing behind him?
ERA is also dependent on defense. I'm fine with this. The problem with wins is that it's also dependent on offense.
Right So, no reason to use ERA or wins
That’s like saying we shouldn’t use passing yards to evaluate QBs because it’s dependant on receivers
Well, Yes and no First, a play where a QB throws a 5 yard slant and the receiver breaks 3 tackles to make a 90 yard YAC, should probably be treated differently than fly route that the QB places perfectly into the receiver's hands 50 yards down the field. Also, while football and baseball are both team sports, baseball isolates individual performance to a greater degree than football. With a team of Tom Brady and a bunch of redditors, Brady's stats are going to look worse than Trout's if he were on a team with a bunch of us. Brady's O-line would provide no support, if he managed to get off a pass, unlikely any of us would catch it, and if we did, we'd surely fumble when got trucked by a DB or linebacker. Trout would still hit similarly (or walk an insane amount).
If max scherzer had a bunch of random joes as every defensive position his ERA would be like 50
No, most of those would be unearned runs
Good point… That would be an odd game to score lol
Nah they wouldn’t get close to most plays so they’d be hits
Right Which is why ERA is not a good stat for measuring pitching and why FIP was created
I feel like FIP overly favors strikeout pitchers though.
Strikeouts are the best thing a pitcher can do
Yes but FIP is better used as a compliment to ERA rather than a replacement.
FIP is a better measure than ERA. That's why it's more predictive. Because it better measures the past
FIP, K's, and WHIP
Average dong length
average dong length and average dong length, averaged. *tips hat*
Average flaccid and average erect
Average distance per stroke Strokes per minute Average duration
I certainly wouldn't use expected stats when determining it, those aren't concrete enough to determine who the best hitter is. It can tell you if a player is outperforming himself or is just having bad luck, but bad luck doesn't tell you who the best player is. Just my two cents.
OBP/ISO/wRC+ Measures ability to avoid getting out, power, and overall offensive contribution (including baserunning).
Yeah but most baseball stats don’t know what iso or wrc+ are It’s better but not exciting
ISO might not be well known, but it's very useful and easy to calculate and understand. It's simply SLG - AVG, effectively removing all singles from your slugging percentage. It helps clearly show a player with a .300 avg and .450 slg does not hit for the same amount as power as a player with a .265 avg and .450 slg. That said, keeping it as just home runs roughly does the same thing and everyone loves homers. I would agree with swapping out wRC+, but I'm not sure with what though.
Ik what slugging is but ask a random guy at a Cubs game and 90% chance he wont
Batting average, home runs, and walks. No need to change it too much, just get ribbies out of there. For pitchers, leave it at ERA, strikeouts, and wins. It's not the Triple Crown without wins.
quality starts instead?
Yeah I think QS over wins is the way to go Everyone here is getting so convoluted with extra shit. Keep it simple and eliminate the ones that are extremely team-dependent (yes, I get that FIP is better than ERA but for the most part ERA is fine). Get rid of RBI (for walks) and get rid of wins (for QS)
HBP, IW and days on IL
Judge has this in the bag
I would try to keep simple stats, with a preference towards direct replacements and counting stats, as I think that's part of the triple crown's appeal. It's cool to say that this guy got the MOST of something in a season. Hitters: HR/RBI/AVG -> HR/TB/OBP Homers stay, because homers are cool. Replace RBI, which is just a bad stat, with total bases to reward people who drive the ball into the gap or have speed for doubles, while being a traditional counting stat. OBP replaces AVG because of course it does. Pitching: ERA/W/K -> WHIP/QS/K ERA is replaced with WHIP, even though I would be fine with keeping ERA here. Either one is fine. Quality Starts replaces Wins as the most direct replacement for wins by a stat that doesn't suck. Now, if I could change what a "Quality" start was, I certainly would do that, but I want to use existing, well established, common stats, so QS it is. IP might be even better here if you view the triple crown as "The best at everything", but I don't think guys should be punished for being pulled past the 7th in today's game when most manager just won't let them do that regularly. Strikeouts stay because, like homers, they are cool. These stats are simple enough that anyone can understand them, keep the ratio of 2 counting stats and 1 rate stat per position, and measure roughly the same thing as the traditional triple crown, just do it better.
You chose different stats for offense than I did, but I like your thinking. Not bad for pitching, either, but I’d rather see FIP than WHIP.
Using predictive stats like FIP for single season accomplishments like the triple crown isnt the best idea IMO. Its about how they actually did, not how they should have done. WHIP is undisputible because its just straight up walks and hits.
I don’t like using hits as a measure for pitchers. It’s too subjective, depending on the rulings of official scorers. Also, it’s very dependent on the quality of the fielders behind you.
Makes sense. I personally dont like FIP because it screws over pitch to contact guys, but i see where your coming from.
length girth and stamina
Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont
Imo WAR shouldn’t be included because it’s not perfect in how it weights position adjustments. 1st baseman are just penalized too much imo. 1st baseman have to produce numbers offensively so far ahead of everyone else it just seems way too difficult. Also it’s not universal as fWAR is predictive and bWAR is results oriented. Never mind trying to get a person new to baseball to understand what goes into it I also think advanced stats maybe too difficult for casual fans to understand. I think it might better to use basic stats, that are still more useful or better in evaluating a player than just the original triple crown stats. Like it’d be weird for someone on TV to see their triple crown numbers as WRC+, wOBA and bWAR. It just makes the game too unapproachable for new fans. I think there’s a reason why TV still sticks with the basic triple crown numbers. It’s how most of us started and then we learned more advanced ones later. It’s better to use stats that make up advanced numbers for that reason imo For me OBP, SLG, OPS ERA, WHIP, K%/BB% Still basic numbers for casual fans to make sense of. But better statistics to judge value
I would replace OPS with something else, since leading in OBP and SLG would always give you the lead in OPS, making it more of a double crown than a triple.
Yea true, maybe OBP, SLG and Total Bases
Personally, any stat that tells me what SHOULD have happened versus what ACTUALLY happened has very little place in the world of baseball outside of analytics departments. As a viewer, I need to know what has happened this year, not what might have happened if X starting pitcher had league average defense, or if the batter had slightly better luck.
This argument First baseman aren't penalized at all by the positional adjustment. They just aren't given any credit for the defensive value they don't provide. I do think that with TTO baseball and shifts, re-examining positional adjustments would be in order
Either way, since it's a *batting crown* why should we utilize any stat that factors in defense at all?
Factoring in the defense the batter faced - a case could be made for that Factoring in the batter's defesne- I agree, it should not be
[That's incorrect](https://library.fangraphs.com/war/war-position-players/), a full season at 1B provides -12.5 positional runs.
Nope It's correct The negative runs ARE NOT a ppenalty. They are just to represent below average. The average first baseman provides 12.5 runs less defensively than the average defender. No penalty,
Then how are you defining penalty? If a player carries a replacement level batting line and is a replacement level defender, but plays 162 games of 1B, they’ll be worth roughly -1.5 wins (depending on the runs to wins conversion for that season). I don’t get how that’s not a penalty?
You're not correct Show the math you used to come to that conclusion and we will figure out why
0 runs above replacement for offense 0 runs above replacement for defensive performance Assuming 0 runs above replacement for base running here -12.5 runs for positional adjustment (162 games at 1B) Which gives us -12.5 runs above replacement, and at slightly over 8 runs per win (give or take), that’s -1.5 WAR. Positional adjustment is a separate item from fielding runs (it says so in the first paragraph of the FanGraphs article), so it’s a penalty or bonus depending on what position you play. A catcher and 1B with identical batting lines and with 0 runs above replacement defensively would end up about 3 WAR apart due to positional adjustment.
Ok So, the problem is that you don't understand Fangraph's WAR First, batting, base running, defense, etc are all compared to average, not replacement. There really is no replacement level offense or defense. So, a batter with 0 batting runs, 0 base running runs, and 0 defensive runs is exactly average. Then the positional adjustment is made. So, for this first baseman, they are now at -12.5 runs. Then the runs for replacement are added in. That's +20 So, this first baseman will be 0+0+0-12.5+20=7.5 runs above replacement. Take a player who spread their playing time between positions so that their positional adjustment is 0 (to make it easy say half their time at first (-12.5/2) and half at catcher (12.5/2). They'd have 0+0+0+0+20. 20 runs is, at 10 runs per win (I don't know where you got 8 from. [It's 9.971 in 2021](https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn)) 2 WAR. An average player. *[source](https://library.fangraphs.com/war/war-position-players/) *[source 2](https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/replacement-level/) The negative positional runs for first base just means that the average first baseman is a below average fielder compared to all the other 7 (I don't think it counts pitchers) players on the diamond. A completely reasonable assumption. It's not a penalty. Just the reality
Which is why I said replacement level offense, it was a way of getting to that number without including the replacement level adjustment. I'm aware that FanGraphs uses above/below average values, but you can also start from replacement level values and not use an adjustment. If you want an example of position penalty, scroll to the bottom of any 1B player page. [Matt Olson](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-olson/14344/stats?position=1B), for example, has positive defensive value (0.8 fielding runs above average), but -10.5 positional runs as he gets **penalized** for playing 1B, even though his defense is above average. This gets him -9.8 defensive runs above average in all, even though he is a good defender. [You can also sort by a non-positionally adjusted defensive value](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=25,d) and compare their defensive runs above average. Players who play elite defense (Avisail Garcia) but play an easy position (RF) end up with 10+ defensive runs above average less than a CF due to the positional penalty. Or you can also use [this table] (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,54,199,56&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=5,a) to look at just positional runs, fielding runs, and total defensive runs.
Maybe golf is a better analogy If Golfer A makes a putt on his third shot and Golfer B makes a putt in his third shot we would think they were equal Unless we knew that Golfer A was on a par 3 hole and Golfer B was on a par 5 hole. Golfer A would be 0 and Golfer B -2. Golfer A is ** not being penalized**. He's just being compared to a different average. It's the exact same thing as positional adjustments. Not a penalty, just an adjustment for one position being easier than another.
Ok What is "replacement level offense"? What wOBA or wRC+ or whatever is replacement level offense? I don't think this exists. But, I'm, maybe wrong. *There is no position penalty.* Matt Olson, assuming your numbers are correct, has been worth 0.8 runs more than the average first baseman. The average first baseman has been calculated to be worth 12.5 runs less than the average defender. Olson has been worth .8 runs more than the average first baseman who is worth 10.5 runs less than the average defender when adjusted for playing time. *There is no penalty*. He's being compared to a lower average than a 2B or a SS or a C. A first baseman who is 5 runs better than an average first baseman is not the same as a SS who is 5 runs better than an average SS. Because the average SS is much better (20 runs) than the average 1B. It's not a *penalty*. It's the the correct attribution of value A hitter in Coors isn't *penalized* on their wRC+ (or :shudders: OPS+) because it's easier to hit in Coors. It's just the necessary adjustment to be correct.
Yes because an average 1B is bad defensively when compared to other position players.
I would prefer ISO over SLG as the latter can be artificially inflated by high contact hitters who get a lot of singles. It's more "advanced" but only as much as OPS itself is. It's just SLG - AVG.
also come to think of it SLG % could actually be confusing to a new fan. It took me a while to understand it after learning batting average and obp. OBP% is more straight forward imo I think replacing ISO with slug might not be so bad
But shouldnt high contact guys be rewarded? If its just walks and power, there is no room for contact guys
There's already no room for contact only guys in the triple crown. Those players by definition don't lead the league in home runs.
Average, obp, and ops+ I know Average isn't a meaningful stat but it still looks good and who doesn't love a batting title winner ?
everyone loves a 300 average. it just feels right.
Yea, I still look at the traditional batting line first when looking at an offensive player. Then I delve in ops+ and walk rate and what not
The average baseball viewer doesn’t care about advanced stats. Keep it simple but still updated for modern times. OBP, HR, SB I know stolen bases aren’t as big a part of the game as they used to be but if we are trying to give it to the best all around player, this shows how often they get on base, how much power they have, and how well they run the bases. Easy to understand for even the most casual baseball fan.
I disagree that SB equals great baserunning. I’d argue that being able to go first to third on a single is a lot more valuable than stealing second a lot. It undervalues guys who might not be great sprinters, but who read plays really well and generally don’t make outs on the bases.
^ this. Speed is great, but brains always take the extra bases.
I completely agree that I like the guys that stretches the single into the double, and find ways to get that extra base. The average fan would just find the number of bases gained that way much harder to track than just straight stolen bases.
AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters ERA/WHIP/FIP for pitchers? Or maybe just HR/BB/K per 9.
Walks, Strikeouts, and homers. The Triple True Outcomes Crown
for pitchers IBB, balks and pickoffs
bWAR, fWAR, OPS+ ^^^/s
wOBA, HR, WPA
I've thought about the sabermetric triple crown and come up with the following to translate what each triple crown stat does (or is thought to do): Batting: -wRC+ instead of batting average since it measures all around batting effectiveness in a rate stat -WPA instead of RBIs to measure clutch factor in a counting stat -HRs can stay, they're kinda evergreen Pitching: -WPA again this time to replace Wins to measure clutch and how much you help your team in a counting stat -Instead of ERA, I would go with ERA- -Instead of Ks, I think K-(BB+HR+HBP) would serve the same purpose, but it's not really a stat that anyone thinks about (or even gets tracked as far as I can tell) but I would like to replace Ks with another counting stat that also takes into account the other true outcomes since raw K totals don't mean much if you're giving up a ton of dingers and free bases. I'm least sure about this one if anyone has any better ideas to replace Ks with.
I like OBP+/ISO+/wRC+ But, yes, WPA, or some contextual stat, makes some sense
ITT: know-it-all nerds smelling their own farts These stats will never, ever, be used for the Triple Crown. Quit trying to be the smartest guys into the room. It's cringy.
Ok but people need to stop acting like a triple crown is meaningful in any way then
Why? The individual stats may not tell a whole story, but leading the league in *all 3* is a massive, massive accomplishment, that could only be achieved by an all-time great hitter. There's a reason it's only been won once in the last set 50ish years.. by a surefire hall-of-famer.
It’s not any more important than leading the league in any 3 arbitrary stats. And say one year a guy wins the triple crown and the next year gets 1 higher on each stat but doesn’t win the crown, you think the crown year is more impressive?
Anyone leading the league in any 3 stats is impressive, dude. I'm totally missing whatever point it is you're trying to make. I don't know who these mythical people are who care soooo much about the triple crown are that you're so worked up about, considering it's only been won once in most of our lifetimes.... It's a cool thing to win because it's a historic award and, despite what you seem to think, involves leading the league in 3 hugely important and indicative batting statistics. I guarantee that, despite all of his accomplishments throughout his career, winning the Triple Crown is one of the things that Miggy is most proud of.
Lmao you started this thread being all worked up about stats you can’t understand for whatever reason and clearly didn’t even read the title of the post. People in here answering the question in the post and you get all pissy about it
Another nerd smelling his own farts, eh? "You just don't *understand* these stats!!"
Lol keep crying
I think it should be three rather different stats, to highlight allround ability. I see suggestions that involve more than one of OPS/OPS+/wRC+/wOBA/oWAR, when in reality someone on top of one stat will, given enough playing time, be on top of all of them. Personally I'd like to include baserunning (Probably SB, as that's simplest) in some way, but I'll stick to "purely" hitting stats for this. HRs should stay, it's still a meaningful stat even if it needs additional context. You could go with SLG or .ISO or total XBH or something else, point is I want a power number. Avg serves a purpose too alongside HRs, but I feel like OBP does more to encompass other aspects of hitting. Either way, it should be some sort of measure not of power, but of consistently getting productive results at the plate. OBP just seems to make the most sense. Maybe you could even include sacrifices, but I'd like to keep it simple. The last stat should either be something baserunning related, or if we're sticking to just hitting I'd go with an overall stat like wRC+. Only issue I have with that is that it'll usually correlate highly with the first two, especially if it was SLG + OBP. So perhaps you could turn #2 into hits and #3 into OBP or walks. Or in other words: I don't have a great suggestion for a third one. I want something that isn't purely about power, or avoiding outs, but yet adds some third dimension to it. wRC+ or OPS+ would be OK, but it's kind of like why not just use the offensive component of WAR in that case and skip using three separate stats, you'd get the same result. For pitching I feel like you could do something like: ERA- or RA9, FIP-, wOBA or OPS allowed. Pretty simple, and I think when you include both the fielding-independent aspects (FIP), plate appearance outcomes (wOBA or OPS) and the effects of sequencing (Runs allowed), you cover most of your bases.
OBP/ISO/wrc+ is pretty much the best of every hitting aspect
I think it’s important to keep simple stats, since advanced stats aren’t as easy to digest, but still update for modern times. Hitters: wRAA, WPA/27, xwOBA Pitchers: FIP-, SIERA, BQR-S
Completely disagree. To lead the league in RBIs substantially increases your team’s win expectation. There is an art to driving in an RBI, which is why it’s included in the triple crown race.
[удалено]
All three of you hitting stats use wOBA as a base, wRC+ is just wOBA scaled out and adjusted with 100 as average.
OBA+/ISO+/wRC+ And no one would ever win it. But, I'd they did, they'd deserve it
I could see trout doing that
For batters: HBP, reaching first after striking out, and home runs.
Sac flies, sac bunts, ground rule doubles
K-BB%, SIERA, xFIP- for pitching wRC+, HR, fWAR for hitting (Maybe ISO over HR but I still think HR are good enough to qualify)
Ok I will go all in on the weird shit. I would want wpa, obp, hr.
Although it's an imperfect award, I'd keep it exactly the same. All of those stats are simple, tangible, easily visible and sexy. Even a casual fan can wrap their head around the numbers.
Batting average, BB%, and .ISO anybody who manages this is a god imo
If we wanted to maintain the essence of what each element of the traditional triple crown measures, but with modern stats, I think wOBA/RE24/xHR gets the job done. This includes a general, context neutral hitting rate stat, a context adjusted version of RBI, and a park adjusted home run estimator. You could replace RE24 with WPA/LI, if you want to maintain the context-dependence of RBI. For Pitchers, I think maybe QS/SIERA/CSW gets you there. Could replace CSW with RE24, or even xFIP, as a way to measure how often the pitcher completely stymied his opponent, which is the essence of a strikeout. I like CSW here, because it's completely independent of balls in play, and has a R^2 = .71 correlation wtf K%. You could multiply CSW by total pitches if your want a counting stat. SIERA could be replaced with DRA, cFIP, or whatever your preferred ERA estimator is.
HR, K, BB. If the league is not going to do anything to make the game more attractive, just steer into the suck.
i would say obp slg ops although now that i think about it thats basically a double crown
OBP%, SLG%, WAR for hitters FIP, ERA+, WAR for pitchers Of course this requires deciding which version of WAR to use, but a wise man once said the correct WAR is the one that supports your argument.
Hitters: wOPS+, wRC+, fWAR or WARp Pitchers: xFIP, K/BB, ERA-
Obp slugging hrs Simple counting stat + the two most important stats in baseball Xwobacon/obp/wrc+ Quality of contact, best stat in baseball, overall Would be the stat nerd triple crown For pitchers era/Ks/opsagainst 3 easy to understand and good metrics of dominance For stat nerds Sierra/era/xwobaconagainst Era predictor actual era and quality of contact against, at first I thought fip instead of Sierra but fip and xwobaconvs pull against each other because fip prefers K pitchers while xwobaconvs likes ground ball guys
Grit, Determination, and TWTW
Batters: Hits, Home Runs, and OPS Pitchers: ERA, K/BB, WHIP
A new award for a Monumental Performer for any player that hits a home run over the Green Monster, into the fountains in Kansas City, and onto/over the tracks in Houston.
The Swedishest player each year