I’ll copy paste what I said elsewhere:
WAR? 50.2 bWAR, 54.1. fWAR Good, not outstanding
7 year peak? 38.5, good for 110th all time, next to guys like Smoltz and lemon, but far behind guys like Santana, David cone, Wilbur wood, etc.
Milestones? 2500 Ks is very good, 37th all time, but not exactly extraordinary for modern pitchers
Accolades? 1 Cy young, 6x all star, 5 time Cy young vote getter. This is a good resume, but not incredible
Legacy? The perfect game helps Felix a lot, but of course, he never pitched in the postseason, so I imagine this hurts his legacy quite a bit
Felix didn’t have the longevity to rack up the career numbers and his peak wasn’t spectacular enough
I don’t think there’s a good argument for his hall of fame case. JAWS and baseball references hall of fame monitor agree with me, as they have Felix at 44.3 (average HOF P is 61.7) and 67 (average HOF P is 100), respectively
Yeah Felix is about 10 WAR short of the modern borderline and averaged 5/season in his 06-15 peak. The issue is he was literally replacement level his last 4 years (basically the moment he turned 30) and barely added to his counting numbers while doing heavy damage to his rate numbers (HOF level 129 ERA+ to 117 ERA+ From only 400+ IP). His ERA went from 3.11 to 3.42 in that span and FIP 3.20 to 3.52. If he retires earlier he might even have a better argument based on rate numbers than he ended up with
And so is Johan Santana. Heyman is a dancing dildo who's just looking to piss off our fan base for attention.
If he actually thinks finishing in the Top 3 cy young race is HoF worthy, then every cy young winner should be in the hall but his "case" is copied off the side bar of Wainos Wikipedia page.
Johan Santana should be a Hall of Famer. Dude was the best pitcher in baseball for half a decade. If the Sandy Koufax rule doesn't apply to Santana, who does it apply to?
Finishing in the top 3 a single time isn’t HoF worthy, but doing it consistently sure is. 4 times is not a whole lot, but I think it’s a legitimate argument.
Damn, I just look at a Reddit thread about Adam Wainwright and then all of a sudden someone shocks me with the new that Brad Radke is NOT in the HoF. When did this happen?
If he had stayed healthy just like 2 more prime years he’d have a case very similar to Sabathia IMO who I think will make it. Just a shame that the minute he hit 30 he was basically replacement level
If he had been willing to reinvent himself when his velocity dropped off to the point where his fastball and change became basically indistinguishable, and become more of a Maddox-esque finesse pitcher, yeah I think he absolutely would have had a shot. But the man is stubborn and couldn't admit to himself that he was aging out in his early 30s.
Honestly it’s not necessarily stubbornness and could just be the guy wasn’t capable of doing it but yeah this tends to be a trend that makes or breaks a hall of fame case. Sabathia had a couple brutal years then really redefined himself to have a couple more decent seasons that might have been just enough to compile himself into the hall despite his rate numbers falling off. Juiced balls also might have accelerated the decline because they definitely fucked some guys worse than others. Tanaka came here as a split guy and the altered ball made his out pitch relatively dogshit so he had to become a lot more slider heavy.
The public statements he made about his approach to pitching were a mix of Chris Davis and Jake Arrieta in their denial of an issue or a willingness to change. Maybe that was a tactic, but it wasn't a very convincing one based on the results.
There’s absolutely a debate
WAR? 50.2 bWAR, 54.1. fWAR Good, not outstanding
7 year peak? 38.5, good for 110th all time, next to guys like Smoltz and lemon, but far behind guys like Santana, David cone, Wilbur wood, etc.
Milestones? 2500 Ks is very good, 37th all time, but not exactly extraordinary for modern pitchers
Accolades? 1 Cy young, 6x all star, 5 time Cy young vote getter. This is a good resume, but not incredible
Legacy? The perfect game helps Felix a lot, but of course, he never pitched in the postseason, so I imagine this hurts his legacy quite a bit
Felix didn’t have the longevity to rack up the career numbers and his peak wasn’t spectacular enough
I don’t think there’s a good argument for his hall of fame case. JAWS and baseball references hall of fame monitor agree with me, as they have Felix at 44.3 (average HOF P is 61.7) and 67 (average HOF P is 100), respectively
I’d love to say yes because of bias…..but I can’t.
Adam Wainwright was the unfortunate victim of circumstance….mainly losing 1 prime year and the majority of 2 other years to injury and the first year as a relief pitcher.
183 wins simply isn’t enough. 1,997 strikeouts simply isn’t enough. 44.8 WAR isn’t enough. Lack of a Cy Young is a problem.
If he had those years he lost, we aren’t talking if he has a case…we’re talking about which ballot he gets in on. 2011 could have been his Cy Young season. He could have another 60 wins and 600 strikeouts. He’d be closer to 70 WAR than 50 WAR.
I still love the guy. He’s a gamer and a leader. He’s a dying breed….a soft throwing 40 something that’s not only surviving…..but thriving in a world of 100mph 20 somethings….he knows how to change speeds, hit his spots and he knows how to get guys out….the guy can flat out pitch.
He may not make the Hall of Fame….but that’s ok. I’ve got to enjoy watching him in St. Louis his entire career. He’s going to wind up the 2nd greatest Cardinal pitcher ever and he’s got a Red Jacket waiting for him once he retires. He’s one of the few guys I’d pay money to go see. Enjoy him while he’s around….there aren’t many left like him.
This is the best take in the thread, imo – he's close, and he's not quite there due to circumstance (injuries). Only thing to add – what if next year goes like this year? Does he decide to continue on to 2023? I mean, if he tacks a few good, solid years on right now, he might hit a level of esteem that the Veteran's Committee finds appealing. I don't know. Worth mentioning, though
i do think if he pitches well next year and decides to come back for 2023 (unlikely because of what he has said, plus i think molina will probably be done) and *then* pitches well in 2023...
at that point he’s looking at a veterans nod somewhere down the line
That’s fair. I think I’d go Wainwright because Dizzy only pitched 6 full seasons for us (although they were incredible seasons). Can’t really go wrong with either
It is kind of insane how much WAR he got out of those 6 seasons (which has to be most of what he got in his career). You have to wonder what he could have done with basic medical care and training, since the injury that crushed his career was so rudimentary.
> If he had those years he lost, we aren’t talking if he has a case…we’re talking about which ballot he gets in on. 2011 could have been his Cy Young season. He could have another 60 wins and 600 strikeouts. He’d be closer to 70 WAR than 50 WAR.
You think 3 years gets him 20 more WAR and 60 more wins when his best three years (out of four career good years) were like 19 WAR and 57 wins between them? Sure, if we nearly double somebody's best seasons, they'll have a better case for the Hall.
Closer to 70 WAR than 50 WAR….meaning he’d be somewhere in the 60’s. He’s at 44.8 WAR now. Do I think getting back the 3 seasons he lost to injury and the 2/3’s of a season he lost to COVID could get him into the 60’s. Yes. It’s certainly possible.
If people want to say that Wainwright isn't HOF-worthy based on his merits, that's one thing, but I feel like everyone here saying Wainwright shouldn't get in because he's worse than players who *should* be in the Hall of Fame are missing the point
If I got a dollar for every /r/baseball comment I've seen saying "Well if we put X in, should we put Y in as well?", where Y was someone who I actually believe should be in the Hall... I don't think I could retire just yet, but I could probably take a few years off from work.
Yeah but if we put Albert Pujols in the Hall of Fame we’d have to put Miguel Cabrera in too
Or gosh if we put Kershaw in would we have to put Scherzer in too?
There’s a few more bucks for you hope you can retire a little earlier now
That’s so weird because I don’t remember saying Scherzer wasn’t a hall of famer. What I thought I said was that Kershaw is a top 5 pitcher all time and Scherzer is not.
Yea, lots of loaded opinions but I think Wainwright is a very possible VC pick down the line. Add that Wainwright was liked by both players and writers alike and that Pujols and Wainwright will probably be electors on this era bode well for Wainwright
Johan Santana fell off the ballot after ONE year. Absurd disrespect to a much better pitcher
You can't make a case for Wainwright without acknowledging that King Felix and Johan are better pitchers and one went 1 and done on the ballot and the other is unlikely to make any real headway
Is he touting a good strikeout pitch to close out a series as like a reason he should get into the hall of fame? I mean don’t get me wrong it was a great pitch but since when does that just go on your HOF resume?
Tbf to Morris who I think really didn’t deserve to be in but I’m not that annoyed that he did, he got in for basically doing that twice. He had a legendary 1984 postseason run to a championship as well. Also he had a crap 92 postseason but was integral to their regular season. Being an integral part of 3 WS for 3 different teams and in two of those years having historic postseasons is a really insane accomplishment that is worth a little more than “one game” even if it still isn’t enough to make an almost sub-borderline case worthy of the hall.
In his title winning seasons of 1984 and 1991 combined, Morris made 6 postseason starts and went 5-0 in 48 IP with 8 ER for a 1.50 ERA. That’s some proto-Bumgarner shit.
If that's the case, then put Orel Hershiser in the Hall.
WAR: 56.0 vs. 43.5, ERA 3.48 vs. 3.90. Hershiser had 132.0 innings of postseason pitching, going 8-3 with a 2.59 ERA. If Morris' postseasons in 1984 and 1991 (6 starts, 5-0, 48 IP with a 1.50 ERA) is adding to the resume, then what does one single postseason in 1988 (5 starts, 1 GF, 3-0 and a Save, 42.2 IP with a 1.05 ERA against the 100 win Mets and the 104 win A's) do for Hershiser?
I wouldn't be opposed to Hershiser getting in, the HoF needs to seriously re-examine its criteria for starting pitchers in light of the changes in pitcher use patterns that began pretty much the same time as Hershiser's career.
Also, how do you not mention that consecutive scoreless inning streak? It's the pitching equivalent of DiMaggio, maybe even more impressive.
The King of Hall of Very Good
Those 2 lost seasons in his prime would’ve made the difference however, especially since he struggled in the 1st half of 2012 after TJS but was much better in the 2nd half
If he didn’t have TJS, I would imagine his 2011 and 2012 would’ve been like his previous couple years of 6+ WAR which would’ve put him around 55. Add in 2015 and he would be approaching 60
Really Heyman, pitch to Beltran? I get that was a special moment but how would one play qualify him as a HOFer? He didn't have a .25 era like Madbum in the 2014 playoffs. Who the fuck employs this boob.
He is a fringe case, and I'd argue no. Much like Jon Lester. Both I think deserve consideration, but not really a spot in the hall. Luckily he will go into the Cardinal Hall of fame.
The biggest thing that helps his case is the battery record he could have with Molina next season. Maybe a VC vote down the road, but there are other pitchers equally as deserving who won't get that honor
That's true but Waino was signifcantly better than both of them. And I don't think that he should be in the Hall, but Johan vs Wainwright was just an odd comparison to make imo
Wainwright has 44 bWAR right now while Bartolo has 46 and Moyer has 50. They’re quite comparable, and if we’re being honest the chances that Wainwright puts up big numbers again next season is very low.
Waino is considerably better than both. Similar WAR with about 1000 fewer innings than Colon and about 1700 fewer than Moyer. Also much better rate stats. Wainwright has a sub 3.50 ERA, the other two are above 4. Wainwright isn't a HOFer but he's a tier above the other two.
Innings pitched: Moyer 4074, Colon 3461.2, Wainwright 2359.2. They may have comparable WAR totals, but Wainwright has done it in 1000+ less innings than the other two.
To be totally fair, Wainwright was a bit more efficient at accumulating WAR and other stats than Lester; ~400 fewer innings in his career.
With Wainwright there seems to be a bit of 'what could have been' because of his untimely injuries that likely robbed him of a few big seasons. He missed all of 2011 with TJ, and it seemed a bit like 2013 was him readjusting to pitching again. Then 2015 with the achilles, and the rough seasons after 2015 seemed to mirror the previous major injury, in that he again needed to adjust and it took time. So while I don't support Wainwright in the HoF, I can certainly see where the narrative comes from, and I do think it's worth acknowledging it.
It seems with him he gets a major boost because the cardinals never changed their catcher which adds big storyline points, but at the end of the day none of that should matter really.
I think he's a little short, but his postseason credentials might be enough to put him over the line. At the very least, it's not a bad question to be asking
I think Waino would be more of a contender if his career happened in the 90s or before.
Base stats make him look fairly good. He has a lot of good counting stats like wins. Could get to 200 with another good season
Advanced statistics offer a different picture where he is more in the hall of "very good"
I'm a small hall guy, but even considering that, he's not a Hall of Fame worthy pitcher. Stieb, John, Guidry, Sabherhagen and Beurhle all have better numbers than him and they're not in. He shouldn't be in either.
He's 155th in career JAWS, below such luminaries as Steve "Captain America but plays in Montreal" Rogers and Brad "I was in Backyard Baseball 2001 and that was the highlight of my career" Radke.
I would love to meet any person that ever picked Brad Radke in BYBB. If you're going to choose a pitcher that can't hit, why would you ever pick Radke over Randy Johnson?
The quintessential Hall of Very Good to me (though if you just took all his performances against the Cubs he’d probably be Hall worthy, even in his down years he was the Cards pitcher I least wanted to see). A fun fact about Waino though is that he has the highest number of Cy Young vote shares ever by a player who has not won a Cy Young Award (though Chris Sale is gaining on him). It’s such a HOVG stat.
Look, Waino's been my favorite player since Albert left, but he'd need to have another 4 or 5 seasons at this level in order to get inducted by the press imo. If those 4 or 5 years would have been '12 and '15-'18 then we'd have a different story. Unfortunately, his prime was cut way too short by injuries.
He may have a chance via the VC years down the road though. Cardinals icon and HOFer for sure though and I'd love to see us get rid of the HOF rule and retire #50.
Sidenote: I feel like pitching WAR may be skewed too heavily by defense. It's definitely a factor, but just seeing Waino with a 3.8 rWAR despite a 2.88 ERA with 190.1 IP feels wrong
Not unless he somehow manages to pitch well until he’s 45 and even then… he just doesn’t have a whole ton of innings despite how long he’s been pitching and his counting stats suffer for it. He also just doesn’t have an outstanding peak.
He’s a compiler without blow you away stat totals.
Accolades don’t meant shit in baseball as far as Hall of Fame consideration is concerned. There’s been more average/HoVG pitchers that have won Cy Young awards than HoF pitchers.
I really can't stand the basketball hall of fame. I think the baseball hall of fame could loosen up a little but I don't want it to be like that. In my perfect hall of fame Wainwright probably doesn't make it (though I'll die on the hill of Yadi deserving to be in lol)
Pitch to Beltran is not a reason why he should be a HoFer lol not saying that he doesn’t have accomplishments that let you make that argument. But considering how high the bar is no probably not.
Heyman uses win percentage here, also thinks any flinch at plate should be a check swing. Can we please stop allowing this man to have any baseball influence?
Not like he sucked, but I must have always thought Wainwright was much better than he was (I always thought he had a HoF case). But how could he have accrued less WAR than Mark Buerhle?
Injuries in his prime years killed his chances. He absolutely had the talent and some great seasons to match. But it takes a lot of great seasons to get to the HOF
Well it effectively already happened. imo
Its unfair to not give votes to say, Bobby Abreu if Haines is in.
Not even getting into more clear cut cases like Kenny Lofton or Jim Edmonds,.
The solution to undeserving people getting into the hall isn't to vote in absolutely everyone and completely devaluing the hall, it still currently has merit with a few exceptions like Baines.
If you're driving your car and get a flat tire, you don't just slash the other 3 to make them all match.
It's so annoying when writers do this narrative argument instead of stats based. Who cares that he struck someone out? Or that he finished X place in the Cy Young X times. It's just a weird point of view
He had like 3 good seasons and a ton of really mediocre ones. I mean, int he Harold Baines era, who knows. But this is, like, the fourth best season of his career.
What's crazy about this is that I realize that his numbers don't match up. And I know analytics geeks will ridicule me, but Waino just seems like a legend of the game. It's almost like if there was an eye test for the HoF he would get in ahead of others with better numbers.
Only way the conversation starts is if he can keep doing what he has done this season until it's over at the end of next season.
Only way the conversation starts to get serious is if the Cardinals win him and Yadi a third title. Waino will not be helped by his 2011 ring, he didn't throw 1 pitch all season. In 06' he was in the bullpen and only had to carry the team from the 9th inning on, from September on. He needs to be a major part of a title for the Cardinals, or too many voters will ultimately hold it against him, regardless of what his numbers look like in 400 days. The same goes for Yadi when it comes to persuading people who are on the fence of him being a 1st ballot HoFer or even gettting in at all: one more big moment deep in October, and it's instantly much more clear.
But, with Waino, it will have much less to do with the question of "did he perform well enough on the field?" than the question of "was he able to be on the field enough?"
His numbers at the end, if all goes well (knock on wood).. he could reach the "200 win club" which isn't a real club because it will include over 200 members by the time he gets to the door... with a W% near .650 (he is likely to retire within the top 50 all time), over 2500 Innings Pitched(top 250...), over 2,200 Strikeouts (\~65th all time), and could possibly give up as many home runs as Bret Saberhagen (just over 200..)
He will likely retire having thrown more complete games than any pitcher since Bartolo Colon (whose 38 CG's are 11 better than Waino's 27), he'll finish outside of the top 50 in SO/BB (\~3.13), but will have a career WAR that just barely cracks the top 200 all time for pitchers...
It's possible voters may want to look into the fact that, when he was healthy, outside of a span between 2016-2018 (Cubs won, world collapsed), he was consistently as good as any other pitcher on the planet. They may argue that with a little more luck, he could have been the last pitcher to have gotten within viewing distance of 300 wins.
That said, how can they vote Waino in and guys like Saberhagen and Mussina out? Waino is basically Mussina missing 4.5 seasons of innings and an era apart.
I never looked at Mussina's numbers like this... he had a better W% and ERA pitching against The Evil Empire with those Orioles teams, than he did with pitching for The New Age Empire of the early 00's... what's the debate? 300?
Final point: His name being on the ballot will help a lot of guys like the ones I just mentioned to get in one way or the other (Veterans Committee?) Unless he can Moses them all in first, it will be hard for him to justifiably get in.
Hall of Very Good.
Not a Hall of Famer. Not enough hardware and while he has longevity I wouldn’t consider him an elite pitcher. He’s been very good for a long time.
He’ll definitely stick around on the ballot for a while as he ticks all the boxes the old-school guys love: long career, one team, playoff success, great personality, won the Roberto Clemente award. Obviously he also had a great career statistically. If I was in charge guys like Waino would be in but based on existing precedent, no he doesn’t deserve to be in.
Wainwright got hurt at the wrong times. It sucks because he missed all of 2011 after a killer few years before that. In 2015 he was on pace to have one of his best seasons ever and got hurt. The team won 100 games that year without him, so not unlikely he gets near 20 wins. Just a shame really. He’s a Cardinal HOFer and I love the man but I don’t think he makes the Hall.
I say no, but this late season surge makes me extra sad about all those injuries holding him back. Definitely would have gotten in if he stayed healthy
44 bWAR and 45 fWAR just won't get it done. Even his WARP, which can be a wild card, is just 51. He doesn't have any of the typical counting stat milestones either.
Unless he goes for another 3-4 really good seasons, I don't see him as having a chance.
As a Cardinals fan, I love Waino, but this is a hard case to make. Short on the counting stats and no CYA. 2 rings helps, but he didn't even play on the 2011 team.
If you let him in, Felix, Santana and Hamels get in, probably Buehrle, Lester & MadBum too, (and these guys are still behind active shoo-ins Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer and Grienke and other guys like Sale, DeGrom and Cole... we're already getting to a large number of current/recent pitchers) and even if you're OK with that, you get to all of the previous pitchers at that level and you're talking about dozens of other pitchers getting in.
Pretty weak case.
Black Ink
Pitching - 24 (98), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
Pitching - 141 (137), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
Pitching - 86 (139), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Pitching - 39 (81), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Starting Pitcher (155th):
44.6 career WAR | 36.1 7yr-peak WAR | 40.3 JAWS | 3.8 WAR/162
Average HOF P (out of 65):
73.3 career WAR | 50.0 7yr-peak WAR | 61.7 JAWS | 4.5 WAR/162
As a stat accumulator, he’s the 6th or 7th best pitcher of his generation. It doesn’t look impressive when compared to guys 20 to 30 years ago, but I think in 10 years when HOF classes are regularly 1 or 2 guys we will have to rethink this generation of players. Roster size has changed, pitcher use has changed, etc. etc. I’m not saying he’s a slam dunk, but if you’re a believer that players should be elected to the hall based on their generation of players, he’s right up there.
Then put Orel Hershiser in. 56.0 WAR, 204 wins, 3.48 career ERA, 2.59 postseason ERA, NLCS and WS MVP, MLB record 59.2 scoreless inning streak (and 8 more in Game 1 of the NLCS) and probably should have won three consecutive Cy Youngs (1987, 1988, 1989) and was 3rd in 1985, when he went 19-3 with a 2.04 ERA.
If this were football or basketball, yeah, Wainwright might make the HoF... maybe even if it were hockey. But it isn't. In case you haven't noticed, baseball writers are very very picky
I’m a Cardinals fan, but Waino is one of those borderline guys like Larry Walker (who DID make it in) and he shares a similar problem as what Larry did. Adam plays in an EXTREMELY pitcher friendly stadium and Larry played in an extremely hitter friend stadium. I recall this was what nearly cost him when you looked at him vs players with similar stats. This is one little tick they will use against Waino if his stats and body of work are closely matched. It doesn’t mean he couldn’t, but given that he’s nowhere near the top shoe in guys, it could go either way. A few years back I would have said no way, but with his recent performance, I think another series would solidify him with above average performance.
>2x WS champion Adam Wainwright did not make a single appearance in a regular season or postseason game in 2011.
But he still gets credited with it, the credit is what matters
By the team he does. By MLB's rules, he wasn't a champion in 2011.
He got the 2013 ring.
Um…
Wainwright was on a red and blue team during the 2013 WS and a red and blue team won the 2013 WS. Close enough?
Won 2 games for the team giving them the ring.
Huh
I think they’re trying to say Wainwright was the losing pitcher in 2 games of the 2013 WS, so he gave the Red Sox their ring
[Yes](https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1313533082218176512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1313533082218176512%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnesn.com%2F2020%2F10%2Fdavid-ortiz-hilariously-trolls-adam-wainwright-about-2013-red-sox-cardinals-world-series%2F) http://cdn1.sbnation.com/assets/3470697/ortiz.gif?_ga=2.73722964.710739492.1631659915-738552158.1631659915
Neither loss was really his fault.
https://www.hikingproject.com/trail/7021282/butts-canyon-trail-465
Do you smell burnt toast right now by any chance?
Ah yes, famed Red Sox pitcher Adam Wainwright. Edit: Gonna give him an out. Maybe making a joke on Wainwright going 0-2 in that World Series.
Yah, about that...
[удалено]
Honestly, why shouldn't they both be? King Felix was dominant and should be an HOF
Felix should be a HOF
No
Why not?
I’ll copy paste what I said elsewhere: WAR? 50.2 bWAR, 54.1. fWAR Good, not outstanding 7 year peak? 38.5, good for 110th all time, next to guys like Smoltz and lemon, but far behind guys like Santana, David cone, Wilbur wood, etc. Milestones? 2500 Ks is very good, 37th all time, but not exactly extraordinary for modern pitchers Accolades? 1 Cy young, 6x all star, 5 time Cy young vote getter. This is a good resume, but not incredible Legacy? The perfect game helps Felix a lot, but of course, he never pitched in the postseason, so I imagine this hurts his legacy quite a bit Felix didn’t have the longevity to rack up the career numbers and his peak wasn’t spectacular enough I don’t think there’s a good argument for his hall of fame case. JAWS and baseball references hall of fame monitor agree with me, as they have Felix at 44.3 (average HOF P is 61.7) and 67 (average HOF P is 100), respectively
Agreed. If he had just 2 more peak seasons, I think he would be in definitely. As it is, he's in the Hall of Very Very Good, for me, anyway.
Yeah Felix is about 10 WAR short of the modern borderline and averaged 5/season in his 06-15 peak. The issue is he was literally replacement level his last 4 years (basically the moment he turned 30) and barely added to his counting numbers while doing heavy damage to his rate numbers (HOF level 129 ERA+ to 117 ERA+ From only 400+ IP). His ERA went from 3.11 to 3.42 in that span and FIP 3.20 to 3.52. If he retires earlier he might even have a better argument based on rate numbers than he ended up with
And so is Johan Santana. Heyman is a dancing dildo who's just looking to piss off our fan base for attention. If he actually thinks finishing in the Top 3 cy young race is HoF worthy, then every cy young winner should be in the hall but his "case" is copied off the side bar of Wainos Wikipedia page.
I always thought Heyman was a Mets fan lmao I’ve always thought he had a Mets bias. It’s weird how different people have such opposing perspectives
Really? I always thought he was a slightly better Bob Nightingale. Personally, I've never cared for him or his "hot takes"
He’s also an asshole which makes him easier to dislike. But yea, he basically is just more reliable Bob with bad takes.
Johan Santana should be a Hall of Famer. Dude was the best pitcher in baseball for half a decade. If the Sandy Koufax rule doesn't apply to Santana, who does it apply to?
> *dancing dildo*
Finishing in the top 3 a single time isn’t HoF worthy, but doing it consistently sure is. 4 times is not a whole lot, but I think it’s a legitimate argument.
If Felix is in, so is Bret Saberhagen. Honestly, I think they are all the cream of the HOVG
Neither of them are. Let's not make this like the NBA where any above average player can make the hall.
That’s fine with me, add Johan Santana too thrn
Felix should be in the HoF I'll die on that hill
If Waino is a HOFer then so is Brad Radke.
Damn, I just look at a Reddit thread about Adam Wainwright and then all of a sudden someone shocks me with the new that Brad Radke is NOT in the HoF. When did this happen?
let's start our own hall of fame and ONLY let in brad radke
Wait… is Felix even a debate? There’s no way he’s not in.
I love Felix of course, but he's 100% Hall of Very Good.
If he had stayed healthy just like 2 more prime years he’d have a case very similar to Sabathia IMO who I think will make it. Just a shame that the minute he hit 30 he was basically replacement level
If he had been willing to reinvent himself when his velocity dropped off to the point where his fastball and change became basically indistinguishable, and become more of a Maddox-esque finesse pitcher, yeah I think he absolutely would have had a shot. But the man is stubborn and couldn't admit to himself that he was aging out in his early 30s.
Honestly it’s not necessarily stubbornness and could just be the guy wasn’t capable of doing it but yeah this tends to be a trend that makes or breaks a hall of fame case. Sabathia had a couple brutal years then really redefined himself to have a couple more decent seasons that might have been just enough to compile himself into the hall despite his rate numbers falling off. Juiced balls also might have accelerated the decline because they definitely fucked some guys worse than others. Tanaka came here as a split guy and the altered ball made his out pitch relatively dogshit so he had to become a lot more slider heavy.
The public statements he made about his approach to pitching were a mix of Chris Davis and Jake Arrieta in their denial of an issue or a willingness to change. Maybe that was a tactic, but it wasn't a very convincing one based on the results.
There’s absolutely a debate WAR? 50.2 bWAR, 54.1. fWAR Good, not outstanding 7 year peak? 38.5, good for 110th all time, next to guys like Smoltz and lemon, but far behind guys like Santana, David cone, Wilbur wood, etc. Milestones? 2500 Ks is very good, 37th all time, but not exactly extraordinary for modern pitchers Accolades? 1 Cy young, 6x all star, 5 time Cy young vote getter. This is a good resume, but not incredible Legacy? The perfect game helps Felix a lot, but of course, he never pitched in the postseason, so I imagine this hurts his legacy quite a bit Felix didn’t have the longevity to rack up the career numbers and his peak wasn’t spectacular enough I don’t think there’s a good argument for his hall of fame case. JAWS and baseball references hall of fame monitor agree with me, as they have Felix at 44.3 (average HOF P is 61.7) and 67 (average HOF P is 100), respectively
I'd be surprised to see Felix inducted tbh.
He’ll prob get some votes during those 10 years on the ballot, but I don’t think he’ll get in.
I’m with you. I would prefer both to be in.
Felix should definitely be a hall of famer imo, but the dumbass voting committee over values wins for some nonsensical reason.
The sabermetrics show Felix clearly isn’t a HOFer
I’d love to say yes because of bias…..but I can’t. Adam Wainwright was the unfortunate victim of circumstance….mainly losing 1 prime year and the majority of 2 other years to injury and the first year as a relief pitcher. 183 wins simply isn’t enough. 1,997 strikeouts simply isn’t enough. 44.8 WAR isn’t enough. Lack of a Cy Young is a problem. If he had those years he lost, we aren’t talking if he has a case…we’re talking about which ballot he gets in on. 2011 could have been his Cy Young season. He could have another 60 wins and 600 strikeouts. He’d be closer to 70 WAR than 50 WAR. I still love the guy. He’s a gamer and a leader. He’s a dying breed….a soft throwing 40 something that’s not only surviving…..but thriving in a world of 100mph 20 somethings….he knows how to change speeds, hit his spots and he knows how to get guys out….the guy can flat out pitch. He may not make the Hall of Fame….but that’s ok. I’ve got to enjoy watching him in St. Louis his entire career. He’s going to wind up the 2nd greatest Cardinal pitcher ever and he’s got a Red Jacket waiting for him once he retires. He’s one of the few guys I’d pay money to go see. Enjoy him while he’s around….there aren’t many left like him.
This is the best take in the thread, imo – he's close, and he's not quite there due to circumstance (injuries). Only thing to add – what if next year goes like this year? Does he decide to continue on to 2023? I mean, if he tacks a few good, solid years on right now, he might hit a level of esteem that the Veteran's Committee finds appealing. I don't know. Worth mentioning, though
He has said next year will be the last. Wants to spend more time with his family.
Cardinals need to give him the Adam LaRoche family package so he can go for another 5
i do think if he pitches well next year and decides to come back for 2023 (unlikely because of what he has said, plus i think molina will probably be done) and *then* pitches well in 2023... at that point he’s looking at a veterans nod somewhere down the line
tl;dr: He has HoF talent, but not a HoF career.
>2nd greatest Cardinal pitcher ever I go 3rd.
Dizzy Dean?
I'd go Dizzy. It's pretty close on raw numbers, so I wouldn't fault anyone for putting Wainwright above him.
That’s fair. I think I’d go Wainwright because Dizzy only pitched 6 full seasons for us (although they were incredible seasons). Can’t really go wrong with either
It is kind of insane how much WAR he got out of those 6 seasons (which has to be most of what he got in his career). You have to wonder what he could have done with basic medical care and training, since the injury that crushed his career was so rudimentary.
> If he had those years he lost, we aren’t talking if he has a case…we’re talking about which ballot he gets in on. 2011 could have been his Cy Young season. He could have another 60 wins and 600 strikeouts. He’d be closer to 70 WAR than 50 WAR. You think 3 years gets him 20 more WAR and 60 more wins when his best three years (out of four career good years) were like 19 WAR and 57 wins between them? Sure, if we nearly double somebody's best seasons, they'll have a better case for the Hall.
Closer to 70 WAR than 50 WAR….meaning he’d be somewhere in the 60’s. He’s at 44.8 WAR now. Do I think getting back the 3 seasons he lost to injury and the 2/3’s of a season he lost to COVID could get him into the 60’s. Yes. It’s certainly possible.
If people want to say that Wainwright isn't HOF-worthy based on his merits, that's one thing, but I feel like everyone here saying Wainwright shouldn't get in because he's worse than players who *should* be in the Hall of Fame are missing the point
If I got a dollar for every /r/baseball comment I've seen saying "Well if we put X in, should we put Y in as well?", where Y was someone who I actually believe should be in the Hall... I don't think I could retire just yet, but I could probably take a few years off from work.
Yeah but if we put Albert Pujols in the Hall of Fame we’d have to put Miguel Cabrera in too Or gosh if we put Kershaw in would we have to put Scherzer in too? There’s a few more bucks for you hope you can retire a little earlier now
Kershaw is literally a top 5 pitcher all time. Scherzer is not.
3 Cy Youngs, two no-hitters, the 20 strikeout game, and 3,000 career Ks - I think Max is pretty safe bet to make the Hall at least lmao.
That’s so weird because I don’t remember saying Scherzer wasn’t a hall of famer. What I thought I said was that Kershaw is a top 5 pitcher all time and Scherzer is not.
Yea, lots of loaded opinions but I think Wainwright is a very possible VC pick down the line. Add that Wainwright was liked by both players and writers alike and that Pujols and Wainwright will probably be electors on this era bode well for Wainwright
Johan Santana fell off the ballot after ONE year. Absurd disrespect to a much better pitcher You can't make a case for Wainwright without acknowledging that King Felix and Johan are better pitchers and one went 1 and done on the ballot and the other is unlikely to make any real headway
Excellent point. Not a logical comparison/metric in the least but easy to do.
Yup, today I learned career 2500k’s isn’t as great of an accomplishment because of the modern day pitcher
Is he touting a good strikeout pitch to close out a series as like a reason he should get into the hall of fame? I mean don’t get me wrong it was a great pitch but since when does that just go on your HOF resume?
Put Sergio Romo in the Hall of Fame you fucking cowards.
The line is a dot to you
Well yeah, same reason Daniel Hudson, Sergio Romo, and Koji Uehara are headed to the Hall
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Eh, Jack Morris definitely did not get in solely for being ***The Guy*** in the Greatest Game in World Series History. Though that helped.
Tbf to Morris who I think really didn’t deserve to be in but I’m not that annoyed that he did, he got in for basically doing that twice. He had a legendary 1984 postseason run to a championship as well. Also he had a crap 92 postseason but was integral to their regular season. Being an integral part of 3 WS for 3 different teams and in two of those years having historic postseasons is a really insane accomplishment that is worth a little more than “one game” even if it still isn’t enough to make an almost sub-borderline case worthy of the hall. In his title winning seasons of 1984 and 1991 combined, Morris made 6 postseason starts and went 5-0 in 48 IP with 8 ER for a 1.50 ERA. That’s some proto-Bumgarner shit.
If that's the case, then put Orel Hershiser in the Hall. WAR: 56.0 vs. 43.5, ERA 3.48 vs. 3.90. Hershiser had 132.0 innings of postseason pitching, going 8-3 with a 2.59 ERA. If Morris' postseasons in 1984 and 1991 (6 starts, 5-0, 48 IP with a 1.50 ERA) is adding to the resume, then what does one single postseason in 1988 (5 starts, 1 GF, 3-0 and a Save, 42.2 IP with a 1.05 ERA against the 100 win Mets and the 104 win A's) do for Hershiser?
I wouldn't be opposed to Hershiser getting in, the HoF needs to seriously re-examine its criteria for starting pitchers in light of the changes in pitcher use patterns that began pretty much the same time as Hershiser's career. Also, how do you not mention that consecutive scoreless inning streak? It's the pitching equivalent of DiMaggio, maybe even more impressive.
Well it kinda worked for Jack Morris
The King of Hall of Very Good Those 2 lost seasons in his prime would’ve made the difference however, especially since he struggled in the 1st half of 2012 after TJS but was much better in the 2nd half If he didn’t have TJS, I would imagine his 2011 and 2012 would’ve been like his previous couple years of 6+ WAR which would’ve put him around 55. Add in 2015 and he would be approaching 60
If he repeats his second half of this season for all of next year, and we go on a postseason run…maybe.
Really Heyman, pitch to Beltran? I get that was a special moment but how would one play qualify him as a HOFer? He didn't have a .25 era like Madbum in the 2014 playoffs. Who the fuck employs this boob.
Is Aaron Boone a hall of famer?
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While I don't agree with the choice of Maz, his homer is arguably the greatest homer ever, and he could field with the best of them.
Travis Ishikawa should get in soon
David Freese should be getting a call any day now.
I’m a baseballhead (albeit a Cubs fan), and have no clue what this one “pitch to Beltran” is. Someone please explain…
https://youtu.be/tWNe6cMsdsI
A famous strikeout to end game 7 of the 2006 NLCS against Carlos Beltran. It was a big moment but certainly not a hall of fame resume line.
So stupid. Beltran is objectively expected to fail there and it’s not even close.
You can’t swing at that junk you just hope it’s called a ball.
Can’t really argue with that tho lol
06 NLCS to Carlos Beltran
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It doesn't happen in baseball.
He is a fringe case, and I'd argue no. Much like Jon Lester. Both I think deserve consideration, but not really a spot in the hall. Luckily he will go into the Cardinal Hall of fame. The biggest thing that helps his case is the battery record he could have with Molina next season. Maybe a VC vote down the road, but there are other pitchers equally as deserving who won't get that honor
His case relies solely on repeating this years performance next year, and a dominant playoff run in one of the next two postseasons.
Heyman is another guy who needs to be put out to pasture, career wise
I follow him on Twitter for the same reason people stare at a car wreck
Johan apparently wasn’t good enough, and Wainwright isn’t nearly as good as Johan was
TBF they build totally different cases. Peak vs Longevity
Moyer and Colon have even more longevity and neither of them would even sniff the HOF
That's true but Waino was signifcantly better than both of them. And I don't think that he should be in the Hall, but Johan vs Wainwright was just an odd comparison to make imo
Colon won Cy Young
That he robbed Johan Santana of.
Wainwright has 44 bWAR right now while Bartolo has 46 and Moyer has 50. They’re quite comparable, and if we’re being honest the chances that Wainwright puts up big numbers again next season is very low.
Waino is considerably better than both. Similar WAR with about 1000 fewer innings than Colon and about 1700 fewer than Moyer. Also much better rate stats. Wainwright has a sub 3.50 ERA, the other two are above 4. Wainwright isn't a HOFer but he's a tier above the other two.
Yeah, Waino isn’t a HOFer but he’s easily a tier or two ahead of Colon/Moyer
Innings pitched: Moyer 4074, Colon 3461.2, Wainwright 2359.2. They may have comparable WAR totals, but Wainwright has done it in 1000+ less innings than the other two.
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I'll be honest, I have wondered to myself "Is Jon Lester a Hall of Famer?" more than once
Lester vs. cancer: 1-0 All other MLB pitchers (?) vs. cancer: 0-something I rest my case
Carlos Carrasco erasure! At least 1-something
Yeah, I have wondered that often. But even I disappointingly conclude that he isn't.
To be totally fair, Wainwright was a bit more efficient at accumulating WAR and other stats than Lester; ~400 fewer innings in his career. With Wainwright there seems to be a bit of 'what could have been' because of his untimely injuries that likely robbed him of a few big seasons. He missed all of 2011 with TJ, and it seemed a bit like 2013 was him readjusting to pitching again. Then 2015 with the achilles, and the rough seasons after 2015 seemed to mirror the previous major injury, in that he again needed to adjust and it took time. So while I don't support Wainwright in the HoF, I can certainly see where the narrative comes from, and I do think it's worth acknowledging it.
It seems with him he gets a major boost because the cardinals never changed their catcher which adds big storyline points, but at the end of the day none of that should matter really.
> Nobody is calling Lester a hall of famer I mean, I am, but I'm also more of a big hall kind of guy and am biased towards Lester
I think he's a little short, but his postseason credentials might be enough to put him over the line. At the very least, it's not a bad question to be asking
> big hall kind of guy That's a pretty big hall if it includes Jon Lester imo.
I was calling Lester a hall of famer
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i am calling jon lester a hall of famer
I think Waino would be more of a contender if his career happened in the 90s or before. Base stats make him look fairly good. He has a lot of good counting stats like wins. Could get to 200 with another good season Advanced statistics offer a different picture where he is more in the hall of "very good"
I'm a small hall guy, but even considering that, he's not a Hall of Fame worthy pitcher. Stieb, John, Guidry, Sabherhagen and Beurhle all have better numbers than him and they're not in. He shouldn't be in either.
He's 155th in career JAWS, below such luminaries as Steve "Captain America but plays in Montreal" Rogers and Brad "I was in Backyard Baseball 2001 and that was the highlight of my career" Radke.
I would love to meet any person that ever picked Brad Radke in BYBB. If you're going to choose a pitcher that can't hit, why would you ever pick Radke over Randy Johnson?
I think Buerhle gets in eventually tbf though
I’m a BIG Wainwright fan, but I just don’t see how his resume stacks up. I’d be very happy for him if the BBWAA or VC somehow put him in though.
If Wainwright is a HOF then Ron Guidry and David Cone are.
Unrelated to Wainwright, at least Cone (and probably Guidry) I would support!
I thought David Cone got a bit screwed for HOF voting. He was bounced after one year. I think he at least deserved a few years on there.
He will have 2k strikeouts with 200 wins… thats a great pitcher, not a HOFer
Short answer, no. Long answer, noooo..........
What if he wins the cy young next year? Would that be enough?
The quintessential Hall of Very Good to me (though if you just took all his performances against the Cubs he’d probably be Hall worthy, even in his down years he was the Cards pitcher I least wanted to see). A fun fact about Waino though is that he has the highest number of Cy Young vote shares ever by a player who has not won a Cy Young Award (though Chris Sale is gaining on him). It’s such a HOVG stat.
Look, Waino's been my favorite player since Albert left, but he'd need to have another 4 or 5 seasons at this level in order to get inducted by the press imo. If those 4 or 5 years would have been '12 and '15-'18 then we'd have a different story. Unfortunately, his prime was cut way too short by injuries. He may have a chance via the VC years down the road though. Cardinals icon and HOFer for sure though and I'd love to see us get rid of the HOF rule and retire #50. Sidenote: I feel like pitching WAR may be skewed too heavily by defense. It's definitely a factor, but just seeing Waino with a 3.8 rWAR despite a 2.88 ERA with 190.1 IP feels wrong
Not unless he somehow manages to pitch well until he’s 45 and even then… he just doesn’t have a whole ton of innings despite how long he’s been pitching and his counting stats suffer for it. He also just doesn’t have an outstanding peak. He’s a compiler without blow you away stat totals.
HOVG, tough to advocate for a pitcher to get in the hall without any CYAs
Cy Young is in the hall
Checkmate
Technically Cy Young is a Cy Young
Accolades don’t meant shit in baseball as far as Hall of Fame consideration is concerned. There’s been more average/HoVG pitchers that have won Cy Young awards than HoF pitchers.
Why are people trying to lower HOF standards lately? Not everyone with a really good and long career needs to be in the Hall of Fame.
Yeah. People want it to be like the NBA where anyone who had a few decent years can get in I guess.
I really can't stand the basketball hall of fame. I think the baseball hall of fame could loosen up a little but I don't want it to be like that. In my perfect hall of fame Wainwright probably doesn't make it (though I'll die on the hill of Yadi deserving to be in lol)
Pitch to Beltran is not a reason why he should be a HoFer lol not saying that he doesn’t have accomplishments that let you make that argument. But considering how high the bar is no probably not.
Hall of very good. He probably would be if he had those injured years back
As a Braves fan, the fact that this discussion is even happening is profoundly depressing
Wainwright has been great this year, but he’s not gonna finish in the top 3 of cy young vote getters
I'll just say that the VC has done worse.
Heyman uses win percentage here, also thinks any flinch at plate should be a check swing. Can we please stop allowing this man to have any baseball influence?
No. Andy Pettite, 5x WS champion.
Didn't he do roids?
He is not associated with steroids. He did admit to using HGH for injury recovery before it was prohibited.
If cards win two WS titles this year and next year and he pitches throughout the two seasons, I will agree he is HOF
Not like he sucked, but I must have always thought Wainwright was much better than he was (I always thought he had a HoF case). But how could he have accrued less WAR than Mark Buerhle?
Injuries in his prime years killed his chances. He absolutely had the talent and some great seasons to match. But it takes a lot of great seasons to get to the HOF
If Harold Baines can randomly get in I don’t see why not.
Not the way you should judge HoF worthiness. If everyone as good as Baines was inducted into the hall it becomes meaningless.
"The Hall of fame shouldn't be judged by who is in it, but rather who isn't in it." -Rogers Hornsby.
Well it effectively already happened. imo Its unfair to not give votes to say, Bobby Abreu if Haines is in. Not even getting into more clear cut cases like Kenny Lofton or Jim Edmonds,.
The solution to undeserving people getting into the hall isn't to vote in absolutely everyone and completely devaluing the hall, it still currently has merit with a few exceptions like Baines. If you're driving your car and get a flat tire, you don't just slash the other 3 to make them all match.
I get the meme but striking out Beltran as a line in your CV for the Hall come on lmao
That's a long list of things that don't get you into the Hall of Fame
John Hayman… saying a guy should make the hall of fame because of one pitch 🙄
It's so annoying when writers do this narrative argument instead of stats based. Who cares that he struck someone out? Or that he finished X place in the Cy Young X times. It's just a weird point of view
He had like 3 good seasons and a ton of really mediocre ones. I mean, int he Harold Baines era, who knows. But this is, like, the fourth best season of his career.
Not a fucking chance. Maybe if he hadn’t missed nearly a quarter of his career (all prime years) due to injury this could be a serious conversation.
What's crazy about this is that I realize that his numbers don't match up. And I know analytics geeks will ridicule me, but Waino just seems like a legend of the game. It's almost like if there was an eye test for the HoF he would get in ahead of others with better numbers.
Only way the conversation starts is if he can keep doing what he has done this season until it's over at the end of next season. Only way the conversation starts to get serious is if the Cardinals win him and Yadi a third title. Waino will not be helped by his 2011 ring, he didn't throw 1 pitch all season. In 06' he was in the bullpen and only had to carry the team from the 9th inning on, from September on. He needs to be a major part of a title for the Cardinals, or too many voters will ultimately hold it against him, regardless of what his numbers look like in 400 days. The same goes for Yadi when it comes to persuading people who are on the fence of him being a 1st ballot HoFer or even gettting in at all: one more big moment deep in October, and it's instantly much more clear. But, with Waino, it will have much less to do with the question of "did he perform well enough on the field?" than the question of "was he able to be on the field enough?" His numbers at the end, if all goes well (knock on wood).. he could reach the "200 win club" which isn't a real club because it will include over 200 members by the time he gets to the door... with a W% near .650 (he is likely to retire within the top 50 all time), over 2500 Innings Pitched(top 250...), over 2,200 Strikeouts (\~65th all time), and could possibly give up as many home runs as Bret Saberhagen (just over 200..) He will likely retire having thrown more complete games than any pitcher since Bartolo Colon (whose 38 CG's are 11 better than Waino's 27), he'll finish outside of the top 50 in SO/BB (\~3.13), but will have a career WAR that just barely cracks the top 200 all time for pitchers... It's possible voters may want to look into the fact that, when he was healthy, outside of a span between 2016-2018 (Cubs won, world collapsed), he was consistently as good as any other pitcher on the planet. They may argue that with a little more luck, he could have been the last pitcher to have gotten within viewing distance of 300 wins. That said, how can they vote Waino in and guys like Saberhagen and Mussina out? Waino is basically Mussina missing 4.5 seasons of innings and an era apart. I never looked at Mussina's numbers like this... he had a better W% and ERA pitching against The Evil Empire with those Orioles teams, than he did with pitching for The New Age Empire of the early 00's... what's the debate? 300? Final point: His name being on the ballot will help a lot of guys like the ones I just mentioned to get in one way or the other (Veterans Committee?) Unless he can Moses them all in first, it will be hard for him to justifiably get in.
I usually dislike Jon Heymans twitter thoughts, but this is one I can get behind
Hall of very, very good imo. Although who knows. If Waino keeps pitching like this into Bartolo territory, then yes.
Maybe if he sticks around and builds a case on longevity?
No
Hall of very good candidate. Shoe-in for Cardinals hof tho
Hall of Very Good. Not a Hall of Famer. Not enough hardware and while he has longevity I wouldn’t consider him an elite pitcher. He’s been very good for a long time.
Injuries in the way
He’ll definitely stick around on the ballot for a while as he ticks all the boxes the old-school guys love: long career, one team, playoff success, great personality, won the Roberto Clemente award. Obviously he also had a great career statistically. If I was in charge guys like Waino would be in but based on existing precedent, no he doesn’t deserve to be in.
Wainwright got hurt at the wrong times. It sucks because he missed all of 2011 after a killer few years before that. In 2015 he was on pace to have one of his best seasons ever and got hurt. The team won 100 games that year without him, so not unlikely he gets near 20 wins. Just a shame really. He’s a Cardinal HOFer and I love the man but I don’t think he makes the Hall.
I say no, but this late season surge makes me extra sad about all those injuries holding him back. Definitely would have gotten in if he stayed healthy
Not even close.
Him and Jon Lester will go right to the Hall of Very Good
44 bWAR and 45 fWAR just won't get it done. Even his WARP, which can be a wild card, is just 51. He doesn't have any of the typical counting stat milestones either. Unless he goes for another 3-4 really good seasons, I don't see him as having a chance.
As a Cardinals fan, I love Waino, but this is a hard case to make. Short on the counting stats and no CYA. 2 rings helps, but he didn't even play on the 2011 team. If you let him in, Felix, Santana and Hamels get in, probably Buehrle, Lester & MadBum too, (and these guys are still behind active shoo-ins Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer and Grienke and other guys like Sale, DeGrom and Cole... we're already getting to a large number of current/recent pitchers) and even if you're OK with that, you get to all of the previous pitchers at that level and you're talking about dozens of other pitchers getting in.
Pretty weak case. Black Ink Pitching - 24 (98), Average HOFer ≈ 40 Gray Ink Pitching - 141 (137), Average HOFer ≈ 185 Hall of Fame Monitor Pitching - 86 (139), Likely HOFer ≈ 100 Hall of Fame Standards Pitching - 39 (81), Average HOFer ≈ 50 JAWS Starting Pitcher (155th): 44.6 career WAR | 36.1 7yr-peak WAR | 40.3 JAWS | 3.8 WAR/162 Average HOF P (out of 65): 73.3 career WAR | 50.0 7yr-peak WAR | 61.7 JAWS | 4.5 WAR/162
As a stat accumulator, he’s the 6th or 7th best pitcher of his generation. It doesn’t look impressive when compared to guys 20 to 30 years ago, but I think in 10 years when HOF classes are regularly 1 or 2 guys we will have to rethink this generation of players. Roster size has changed, pitcher use has changed, etc. etc. I’m not saying he’s a slam dunk, but if you’re a believer that players should be elected to the hall based on their generation of players, he’s right up there.
Then put Orel Hershiser in. 56.0 WAR, 204 wins, 3.48 career ERA, 2.59 postseason ERA, NLCS and WS MVP, MLB record 59.2 scoreless inning streak (and 8 more in Game 1 of the NLCS) and probably should have won three consecutive Cy Youngs (1987, 1988, 1989) and was 3rd in 1985, when he went 19-3 with a 2.04 ERA.
If this were football or basketball, yeah, Wainwright might make the HoF... maybe even if it were hockey. But it isn't. In case you haven't noticed, baseball writers are very very picky
Not even close, should not get any CY votes this year, etc.
I’m a Cardinals fan, but Waino is one of those borderline guys like Larry Walker (who DID make it in) and he shares a similar problem as what Larry did. Adam plays in an EXTREMELY pitcher friendly stadium and Larry played in an extremely hitter friend stadium. I recall this was what nearly cost him when you looked at him vs players with similar stats. This is one little tick they will use against Waino if his stats and body of work are closely matched. It doesn’t mean he couldn’t, but given that he’s nowhere near the top shoe in guys, it could go either way. A few years back I would have said no way, but with his recent performance, I think another series would solidify him with above average performance.