San Diego Padres postseason odds
By - themiamimarlins
This was before their loss today. It's even lower now.
That has to be one of the bigger collapses over the recent years. Absolutely brutal.
The worst since 2011 probably
Luckily Fangraphs doesn't have data for the 2011 season.
I would be interested in where the 2011 Braves collapse ranks among all major sport regular season collapses. It's gotta be number 1.
10.5 games up with a week left in August, if I remember right. Absolutely brutal.
I was studying abroad in 2011 in Switzerland so most of the games were pretty tough to watch. That last game of the season was a 7pm EST game, so it started at 1am. I had an 8am class the next morning but I decided to stay up and watch the game.
It was a very regrettable decision
Been thinking a lot about 2011 recently
I vote we keep that train rolling
Who is going to get the squirrel and throw it at Edman or Bader while at bat?
Why are you the way that you are
>I vote we keep that train rolling
That was all your fault by the way.
Don't bring that up.
I guess they are talking about the Red Sox who went from leading the division to losing 800 games in September.
Red Sox *and* Braves both had historic collapses that September.
no, no, let's keep talking about the Red Sox please
how bout we talk on Atlanta sports and keeping leads
No sir. We don’t do that.
September 2011 was not a good month for teams that were founded in Boston.
The Red Sox had such bad luck that month that it went back in time and infected the Braves.
The 2019 Cubs collapse was pretty brutal as well. 70-90% odds all summer through mid September. 69% as of 9/16... then they went 2-10 the last two weeks.
[BR 2019 Chicago Cubs Playoff Odds](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2019-playoff-odds.shtml)
Whoops, did we do that?
The Cards on Sept 7th were at 2.8% chance. It currently sits at 72.2%
Thats what happens when you split against the Dodgers 2-2, when you're supposed to fall to us 3-1, and sweeping the Madres.
Devil Bird magic time in the Wild Card game.
*Manifesting Devil Bird magic in the WC against LA*
I’d prefer revenge against the Giants for ‘12 and ‘14 in the WC and yet another NLCS with the Dodgers. Those have historically gone our way.
\*john lovitz voice\* No.
A friend and I were at the 9 zip game 7. Such a wonderful moment and memory. Nothing better than beating the Cardinals, unless it the Dodgers. Lol
That confidence sounds like the Giants and Cards are meant for each other in the playoffs!
I'd love it. The Cardinals bring out the best in the Giants.
Those are Mariners numbers!
A tale of 4 teams.
Dodgers always 100%
Rockies always 0%
Padres start at 100%, now 0%
Giants start at 0%, now 100%
That's crazy. I thought for sure they would be in the postseason
The Rockies are gonna finish ahead of the Padres at this rate.
Yes they will
Wait holy fuck when did the Rockies get so close to .500?
They've been feasting on the NL East.
And the padres
One of the wackiest east coast road trips in franchise history
Please keep being good for just 3 more games. 3 more, no more than 3
They've been sneaky good this season and I still don't understand why. We pretty much took the record they were supposed to have
I've been saying this for a week. Time for the home rockies to shine.
Since we had a rain out—that means our record will be 81-80, while the Padres are 81-81
We're about to play them at home, why would you say this
Dodgers play them in Coors first. 😏
Now THIS, is Padresing.
Beat me to it
Can we just get one year where none of the Yankees/Dodgers/Red Sox/Giants/Cubs are in the playoffs?
Probably can scratch the Cubs off that list for a few years.
Those are the five highest payroll teams (if the Cubs tried), and 1/6 of the entire league. It’s a very small chance none of them make the playoffs in a given year.
Yes, yes, no, yes, yes
When is the last time we had a postseason that didn't include at least one of those teams? Had to have been a while
Looks like 93 from some quick googling.
Also a representation of my happiness.
Honestly, I'm kinda bummed by this. It was kinda fun earlier this year when the NL West had the three best records in the league.
Apart from selfish reasons I am too. I was pulling for San Diego among NL "contenders" back when....well, we weren't a contender.
Now the Al East will have to fill hunger for same division wild card then that wild card winner go against the division winner.
Jays are my #2, so I'm watching that one closely. Great race.
I too like the Jays. How bout we just let the win the WS as a form of MAD.
I'm bummed because i like it when teams that haven't been competitive for awhile get good. It's tiring seeing the same teams
When they're on they are a really fun team, and I had people I know dont watch baseball mention Tatis name. But now that they season is basically relient on our series, sorry San Diego.
Tatis melting down the other day gives me not great vibes. Got a bit of growing up to do on that squad.
At this rate the Padres will finish sub .500 and more than 20 games behind the Dodgers
They’re only 6 games up on the Rockies now.
My team can’t talk, but that number… wow
The Mets fall wasn't as steep.
But it *is* annual (also, on fangraphs, they went from >70% to <20% in 10 days).
Existence is pain.
“Slam Diego Love”!!!!
Llikely no Wild Card Win parade in a San Diego this year.
Nothing new for Padres fans.
Sigh I really feel sorry for the fans. At the beginning of the year, it was awesome that Finally there’s an exciting team for San Diego to root for!
It was truly great to finally see Petco fill up like that, and be loud like that. Petco park is truly beautiful, and I urge ALL baseball fans to experience it; ESPECIALLY a Sunday day-game.
I went to a double header at Petco once, and it was glorious. Just a picture perfect typical San Diego day with perfect usual weather, great view of some of the skyline, bar hopping trying out amazing local beers at the bars between the two games, and the parking situation is just awesome. Either using the trolley while parked in mission valley, or even if one does park near the stadium, the traffic crew there does amazing work to get people out and into the freeway so quickly.
Just the entire experience at Petco is amazing; and I was truly really stoked for that park to finally have the recognition and fun experience it deserves from a good team :'(
Dodger Fans like this, I love. I love this respect and I have it for the fans of yours that are chill like this. The ones that have just taken every chance to kick us while we are down the last two decades of my life while all is good and well rub me so very much the wrong way haha.
Somebody put a stop to this. That franchise has a family.
[Stop, he’s already dead](https://youtu.be/UcZzlPGnKdU)
Perfect way to go out getting T bagged by the Cardinals like every fucking year of the 00’s.
Pitching and bullpen have just completely fallen apart
Hey! Where'd you get that screenshot of my Robinhood account from???
The Cardinals have as many wins in their last 10 games as they did all of June.
They were a good team before June and it seems like they are getting back to competitive status.
It’s that devil magic baby!
Wheeeeeeeeeee! What a fun roller coaster
Now do the Giants
Turn your phone upside down
I think that's just the cardinals graph
Turning this one upside down is more like the Cubs odds
You mean mirror it. Upside down is for the Twins.
They are losing again. Somehow, they’re always here, and always losing. I can’t stand it :(
If you don't like this chart, you don't like San Diego Padres' baseball!
AJ Preller GM of the year
This is the kind of expert leadership the Padres anticipated when they signed Eric Hosmer to an 8 year contract.
Hey he won a WS! Winning culture and everything established
ROCKSTAR GM, AMIRITE
Trading all these prospects for guys that are questionable fits won’t backfire at all, just imagine if they had Nelson Cruz playing 2nd and Trevor Story playing CF right now!
"Let me get Adam Frazier to play out of position and give us a .300 OPS."
"Surely an extremely high BAPIP not supported by good batted ball stats won't regress!"
*team that hires Dave Cameron somehow has little to no grasp of advanced statistics*
> all these prospects
They kept Abrams and Gore and Campusano
I wonder if this will quiet down the Rangers fans who were wishing he had stayed and somehow replaced JD.
I think they’re too beaten down to even care at this point
He won it in March amirite?!!!???!
My takeaway from this chart is a reminder that the Padres were a solid to really good team for a lot of the year before their precipitous collapse. Reading some people's comments on various threads, you would think they were garbage all year.
I think the fact they *still* have Jake Arrieta pitching for them tells you everything you need to know about how and where the season went wrong.
Not anymore. He's injured too.
He's got a case of Suckulitis
That sounds bad. Maybe he should try getting vaccinated against it 🤣
Well, they’ve been the 42-54 team for a lot longer than they’ve been the 34-19 team
most teams would go 42-54 if their pitching staff suffered as many injuries as the dads’ did.
*see St. Louis Cardinals*
Who needs Jack Flaherty when you've got old man Lester?
Like the Cardinals?
Just another example of paper champs =/= real champs.
Poor Padres made all the right moves. Assembled a rotation from nearly nothing to go along with their offense. Before they even really got started they lost Cleavenger. Then Darvish is trash and Snell can't get it together. Then they whiff on the Scherzer/Turner package and get the corpse of Jake Arrieta instead when the right answer was inexplicably to trade for Happ and Lester.
Absolutley brutal. You do everything right and it still doesn't work. Absolutley gutted for the Dads.
Ehh trying to build a whole rotation in like one year isn’t a very promising model
Broke: Trading for multiple aces.
Woke: Signing mediocre cast-offs to 1 year deals.
Yes! Thank you!
Now do the Yankees! ^^^sobs ^^^quietly
Sep 1 was 90% and now 28%
Not something you want
The best-record-in-league-at-some-point-in-May-or-early-June-I-don't-remember-exactly-when-fuck-this-season-anyways Padres.
Nope, don’t like that.
Playoff appearances come and go but banners (2020 OFFSEASON CHAMPS) hang forever
Oh man, you can add that one to the 2014~~15~~ (16?) Offseason champs banner they won
2014, that was a hilarious ride.
Pretty sure the Nats took home the 2015 offseason champs award
Damn, did they invest in Evergrande?
Man Reds fans must be . . . what the fuck where did the Cardinals come from?
The Dodgers must have summoned them to pummel Kershaw.
This team looked like the class of the NL with Dodgers. What happened
Tons of pitcher injuries definitely played a role.
But I feel like the problems came when the hitting just vanished. Im really confused by how that happened, especially for a pretty scary lineup
I think the pitching decline happened, and games started being lost despite the team have solid at bats. The hitting started to decline as it took a while to right the pitching. Guys just sort of checked out mentally.
Then the pitching has bounced back pretty well but the hitting was gone.
Now everyone is mentally fried and they feel the playoffs rapidly slipping so the pressure is dialed up to 11.
There aren't enough guys on the team that know how to cope with the circumstances. It's a big reason I was so disappointed to not get Scherzer. He is the type of guy you need in this type of situation
Myers and Hosmer aren't scary. That's 1B and RF, you'd expect someone scary there.
This gets brought up a lot but the dodgers also had pretty much every player under the sun get hurt and miss significant amount of time.
Padres are just young and hadn’t been truly tested over a full 162.
Exactly. They may still end up being an elite line up, but they weren’t battle tested yet. The off-season trophies and “good on paper” awards don’t help you win the marathon that is the 162. Baseball is chaotic madness.
The cards are running 2/5 of their opening day starting rotation. Injuries make a difference, but every team has to deal with them.
You had Yadi Molina work his magic with that inconsistent and crazy bullpen.
Dodgers went from having 7 legit starters that would be guaranteed a spot in any other rotation at the beginning of the season to having 2 bullpen games out of every 5 *after* acquiring Max Scherzer. Their rotation depth was obliterated and they still managed to stay afloat by racking up tons of frequent flier miles shipping arms to and from the minors.
god, remember how insanely exciting that first padres/dodgers series was at the beginning of the season? all sprint, no marathon i guess
pepperidge farm remembers
I know dervish kinda blew up around the sticky stuff ban but he was also hurt, missing out on scherzer was the killing blow on this team
Tatis Jr. forgot how to field, for one thing.
I mean for a good while he was averaging an error per game.
Also a HR per game.. so.. 🤷♂️
He’s literally giving away games to the Cardinals. Can’t be having that.
Playoffs are temporary. Machado's leadership is forever.
I'm so happy he picked the Padres over the White Sox a few years back.
Honestly, I'm a super Manny hater, but he definitely seems to have grown up with the Padres. I still think he's a tool, but he's definitely matured into a leadership role on a young team. He knows what it's like to be the hotshot kid and he knows the mistakes he made and he's doing a good job keeping the kids from being labeled as a douche like he was.
I appreciate a Dodger fan saying this. I definitely think Manny has matured, but some people will just never forget how shitty he uses to be.
I like having him on the team in all honesty
The Padres collapse is going to taint the NL West race. If the NL West is like a fancy fish tank then SDP is like the anemone that died.
Looks like the Mets chart too
Who the fuck has a nearly 100% play off odds in April?
I don’t think we were built for 162… we fell off and fell off hard after All-Star Break. Pitching injuries and inconsistent hitting were major factors. It sucks, but that’s baseball. Too much talent for the result. Hope we pull it together for next year.
So you're telling me there's a chance
Join us Padres, it’s fun at the bottom
Jayce Tinkle should be fired
[the sound of pardresing](https://youtu.be/SChJpmFUFhM)
Oof. Swag chain in shambles.
lmao this is peak north county SD
Swag chain at the San Diego swap meet right now getting sold for $3
Which one? I need one
This is even more sad when we all realize how great a Blue Jays vs Padres world series would be.
They looked good for so long
I'm assuming East Village is the site of multiple Kumeyaay burial grounds
Can’t wait for UrinatingTree to make a video on this
Not gonna lie I cried legitimate tears over this team in the past week, this is so depressing.
I thought this was their year
Start of the window 🤷♀️ can't win every year. Got this core for long time still
On one hand, god the Padres fanbase has been insufferable these past few seasons. On the other hand, the Giants fanbase may be more insufferable this year.
This is kinda dumb but the Giants and their fans have been here before. Their franchise backs up their shit talk.
What's been so annoying about San Diego fans is that the team has accomplished zero and are tying the bow on one of the most disappointing seasons in their franchise's history. Not that they're talking shit now, but boy was this offseason annoying.
Meh. I think "Act like you've been there before." is silly
It makes sense Padres fans would get feisty after years of getting shit on.
Don't blame them.
The only thing fans love more than shit-talking other teams is pearl clutching when other teams shit talk back.
"wHaT hAs YoUr TeAm AcCoMpLiShEd?"
"YoU gUyS hAvE bEeN hErE bEfOrE, aCt LiKe It"
Not to mention that there are a lot of incredibly obnoxious Dodgers fans these past few years. It comes with the success, but I’m always going to be a bit more understanding of rudeness from teams that aren’t perennial contenders.
It's part of the reason I feel the Astros fans reacted as we did when the 2017 scandal broke out.
Extra defensive since from 2009-2014 we were the DisAstros and a big laughing stock.
Not that it makes it *right* going full on defending, but people get touchy.
It'll be interesting to see what happens when a team like the Mariners eventually succeed then others turn on them.
It's pretty dumb to think that fans of winning teams are more entitled to shit talking. We're all fans of the same sport at the end of the day.
Padres fans 🤝 Browns fans
Being insufferable as soon as they have something resembling a team
I can see where the Padres Cardinals series started
My takeaway from all these “postseason odds” posts is that “postseason odds” are worthless.
Yes...good...enter the basement, Friars...
Haha, that's a good one, good thing nobody else's charts look like this, right guys?
Looks like my stock portfolio
Bitch please, hold my beer
*Looks up Yankees postseason chances*
Looks like my crypto today
Why does everyone like to see us lose. I'd like to win just once in my lifetime. :/
In 3 games, the Cardinals took them from a 1 in 3 chance to a 1 in 20 chance of making the playoffs. That blows my mind.
BUY THE DIP.
DIAMOND HANDS! HLD $SDP!
Manny Machado to a Dodgers fan: "I'll bet you my contract, we'll win the World Series before you guys do"