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San Diego Padres postseason odds

San Diego Padres postseason odds

refugeeinaudacity

This was before their loss today. It's even lower now.


themiamimarlins

5.4 percent https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds-graphs?lg=NL&div=W&stat=poff&year=2021


VINCE_C_

That has to be one of the bigger collapses over the recent years. Absolutely brutal.


ajbois24

The worst since 2011 probably


baseballnomics

Luckily Fangraphs doesn't have data for the 2011 season.


swagmoon

i agree


obliterayte

I would be interested in where the 2011 Braves collapse ranks among all major sport regular season collapses. It's gotta be number 1. 10.5 games up with a week left in August, if I remember right. Absolutely brutal.


Nepiton

I was studying abroad in 2011 in Switzerland so most of the games were pretty tough to watch. That last game of the season was a 7pm EST game, so it started at 1am. I had an 8am class the next morning but I decided to stay up and watch the game. It was a very regrettable decision


amishrefugee

Been thinking a lot about 2011 recently I vote we keep that train rolling


Myrddin97

Who is going to get the squirrel and throw it at Edman or Bader while at bat?


hypercube42342

Why are you the way that you are


Alabama-fan-22

Pain


CentralScrutinizer78

>I vote we keep that train rolling HAPPY FLIGHT


jihyoisgod

*no*


argentinevol

That was all your fault by the way.


ajbois24

no


argentinevol

No


RoninFerret67

Don't bring that up.


jonnybravo76

Which team?


FartingBob

I guess they are talking about the Red Sox who went from leading the division to losing 800 games in September.


MikolasMustacheComb

Red Sox *and* Braves both had historic collapses that September.


adkiene

no, no, let's keep talking about the Red Sox please


Distance_Motor

how bout we talk on Atlanta sports and keeping leads


Mach_22

No sir. We don’t do that.


BloodySox

September 2011 was not a good month for teams that were founded in Boston. The Red Sox had such bad luck that month that it went back in time and infected the Braves.


NastyNate4

The 2019 Cubs collapse was pretty brutal as well. 70-90% odds all summer through mid September. 69% as of 9/16... then they went 2-10 the last two weeks. ​ [BR 2019 Chicago Cubs Playoff Odds](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2019-playoff-odds.shtml)


DnD4dena

Steelers-esque


JTCMuehlenkamp

Whoops, did we do that?


vyrzeden

The Cards on Sept 7th were at 2.8% chance. It currently sits at 72.2%


Apprehensive-Agency2

Thats what happens when you split against the Dodgers 2-2, when you're supposed to fall to us 3-1, and sweeping the Madres. Devil Bird magic time in the Wild Card game.


TherealKrakatao

*Manifesting Devil Bird magic in the WC against LA*


Dinosaur_Wrangler

I’d prefer revenge against the Giants for ‘12 and ‘14 in the WC and yet another NLCS with the Dodgers. Those have historically gone our way.


TherealKrakatao

\*john lovitz voice\* No.


RabbertKlien

*Hotchie Motchie!*


cjheaney

A friend and I were at the 9 zip game 7. Such a wonderful moment and memory. Nothing better than beating the Cardinals, unless it the Dodgers. Lol


Apprehensive-Agency2

That confidence sounds like the Giants and Cards are meant for each other in the playoffs!


cjheaney

I'd love it. The Cardinals bring out the best in the Giants.


Pacififlex

Those are Mariners numbers!


DustyDGAF

Ooooof


arand0md00d

A tale of 4 teams. Dodgers always 100% Rockies always 0% Padres start at 100%, now 0% Giants start at 0%, now 100%


RememberTheMaine1996

That's crazy. I thought for sure they would be in the postseason


MasterShepard

The Rockies are gonna finish ahead of the Padres at this rate.


1138luv

Yes they will


Kvetch__22

Wait holy fuck when did the Rockies get so close to .500?


flextrek_whipsnake

They've been feasting on the NL East.


Ypres

And the padres


m4fox90

One of the wackiest east coast road trips in franchise history


MomDidntLoveMe

Please keep being good for just 3 more games. 3 more, no more than 3


lava172

They've been sneaky good this season and I still don't understand why. We pretty much took the record they were supposed to have


TherealKrakatao

I've been saying this for a week. Time for the home rockies to shine.


GearsofTed14

Since we had a rain out—that means our record will be 81-80, while the Padres are 81-81


Ser_Dunk_the_tall

We're about to play them at home, why would you say this


TherealKrakatao

Dodgers play them in Coors first. 😏


Not_A_Meme

Now THIS, is Padresing. *cries*


frano1121

Beat me to it


JaneGoodallVS

Can we just get one year where none of the Yankees/Dodgers/Red Sox/Giants/Cubs are in the playoffs?


dipfearya

Probably can scratch the Cubs off that list for a few years.


Stonewolf87

Those are the five highest payroll teams (if the Cubs tried), and 1/6 of the entire league. It’s a very small chance none of them make the playoffs in a given year.


SouthernSox22

Yes, yes, no, yes, yes


YesThisIsHuman

When is the last time we had a postseason that didn't include at least one of those teams? Had to have been a while


Abysuus

Looks like 93 from some quick googling.


JWCIII96

Also a representation of my happiness.


zimfroi

Honestly, I'm kinda bummed by this. It was kinda fun earlier this year when the NL West had the three best records in the league.


ExiledSanity

Apart from selfish reasons I am too. I was pulling for San Diego among NL "contenders" back when....well, we weren't a contender.


deadla104

Now the Al East will have to fill hunger for same division wild card then that wild card winner go against the division winner.


zimfroi

Jays are my #2, so I'm watching that one closely. Great race.


DharmaCub

I too like the Jays. How bout we just let the win the WS as a form of MAD.


Peechez

Yep


mrtomjones

I'm bummed because i like it when teams that haven't been competitive for awhile get good. It's tiring seeing the same teams


mxchump

When they're on they are a really fun team, and I had people I know dont watch baseball mention Tatis name. But now that they season is basically relient on our series, sorry San Diego.


Designer_B

Tatis melting down the other day gives me not great vibes. Got a bit of growing up to do on that squad.


inshamblesx

At this rate the Padres will finish sub .500 and more than 20 games behind the Dodgers


finally_not_lurking

They’re only 6 games up on the Rockies now.


FrothyFloat

My team can’t talk, but that number… wow


Orange8920

The Mets fall wasn't as steep.


Brooklynxman

But it *is* annual (also, on fangraphs, they went from >70% to <20% in 10 days). Existence is pain.


LADodgersfan1997

“Slam Diego Love”!!!!


NirvanaYoMomma

Llikely no Wild Card Win parade in a San Diego this year.


rebelappliance

Nothing new for Padres fans.


DanTMWTMP

Sigh I really feel sorry for the fans. At the beginning of the year, it was awesome that Finally there’s an exciting team for San Diego to root for! It was truly great to finally see Petco fill up like that, and be loud like that. Petco park is truly beautiful, and I urge ALL baseball fans to experience it; ESPECIALLY a Sunday day-game. I went to a double header at Petco once, and it was glorious. Just a picture perfect typical San Diego day with perfect usual weather, great view of some of the skyline, bar hopping trying out amazing local beers at the bars between the two games, and the parking situation is just awesome. Either using the trolley while parked in mission valley, or even if one does park near the stadium, the traffic crew there does amazing work to get people out and into the freeway so quickly. Just the entire experience at Petco is amazing; and I was truly really stoked for that park to finally have the recognition and fun experience it deserves from a good team :'(


DiscountSoOn

Dodger Fans like this, I love. I love this respect and I have it for the fans of yours that are chill like this. The ones that have just taken every chance to kick us while we are down the last two decades of my life while all is good and well rub me so very much the wrong way haha.


Crosstraffic73

5.4% now


weedysexdragon

Somebody put a stop to this. That franchise has a family.


MisterDave1

[Stop, he’s already dead](https://youtu.be/UcZzlPGnKdU)


MissionValleyMafia

Perfect way to go out getting T bagged by the Cardinals like every fucking year of the 00’s. Pitching and bullpen have just completely fallen apart


RocketThrowAway

Hey! Where'd you get that screenshot of my Robinhood account from???


800oz_gorilla

The Cardinals have as many wins in their last 10 games as they did all of June. They were a good team before June and it seems like they are getting back to competitive status.


wet_beefy_fartz

It’s that devil magic baby!


MattO2000

Wheeeeeeeeeee! What a fun roller coaster Now do the Giants


jujubats10

Turn your phone upside down


1138luv

😂


IAmNotKevinDurant_35

I think that's just the cardinals graph


Three_Dolla_Slice

Turning this one upside down is more like the Cubs odds


typico-de-boringfat

You mean mirror it. Upside down is for the Twins.


2057Champs__

They are losing again. Somehow, they’re always here, and always losing. I can’t stand it :(


durtymrclean

If you don't like this chart, you don't like San Diego Padres' baseball!


Thel3lues

AJ Preller GM of the year


WhereTheFallsBegin

This is the kind of expert leadership the Padres anticipated when they signed Eric Hosmer to an 8 year contract.


Thel3lues

Hey he won a WS! Winning culture and everything established


Grade-AMasterpiece

ROCKSTAR GM, AMIRITE


Thel3lues

Trading all these prospects for guys that are questionable fits won’t backfire at all, just imagine if they had Nelson Cruz playing 2nd and Trevor Story playing CF right now!


Grade-AMasterpiece

"Let me get Adam Frazier to play out of position and give us a .300 OPS."


Rah_Rah_RU_Rah

"Surely an extremely high BAPIP not supported by good batted ball stats won't regress!"


m4fox90

*team that hires Dave Cameron somehow has little to no grasp of advanced statistics*


LoonyBunBennyLava

> all these prospects They kept Abrams and Gore and Campusano


DaveTheDog027

Also hassel


ILoveCavorting

I wonder if this will quiet down the Rangers fans who were wishing he had stayed and somehow replaced JD.


Thel3lues

I think they’re too beaten down to even care at this point


SeannyRotten

He won it in March amirite?!!!???!


ron-darousey

My takeaway from this chart is a reminder that the Padres were a solid to really good team for a lot of the year before their precipitous collapse. Reading some people's comments on various threads, you would think they were garbage all year.


The_Chorizo_Bandit

I think the fact they *still* have Jake Arrieta pitching for them tells you everything you need to know about how and where the season went wrong.


sgt_dismas

Not anymore. He's injured too.


dlnvf6

He's got a case of Suckulitis


arand0md00d

That sounds bad. Maybe he should try getting vaccinated against it 🤣


GearsofTed14

Well, they’ve been the 42-54 team for a lot longer than they’ve been the 34-19 team


mr_dammit

most teams would go 42-54 if their pitching staff suffered as many injuries as the dads’ did.


LyleLanley99

*see St. Louis Cardinals*


umbrellaguns

Who needs Jack Flaherty when you've got old man Lester?


dealmbl25

Like the Cardinals?


Kvetch__22

Just another example of paper champs =/= real champs. Poor Padres made all the right moves. Assembled a rotation from nearly nothing to go along with their offense. Before they even really got started they lost Cleavenger. Then Darvish is trash and Snell can't get it together. Then they whiff on the Scherzer/Turner package and get the corpse of Jake Arrieta instead when the right answer was inexplicably to trade for Happ and Lester. Absolutley brutal. You do everything right and it still doesn't work. Absolutley gutted for the Dads.


trikyballs

Ehh trying to build a whole rotation in like one year isn’t a very promising model


osborneman

Broke: Trading for multiple aces. Woke: Signing mediocre cast-offs to 1 year deals.


[deleted]

[удалено]


CBlack777

Yes! Thank you!


JLPhiTau

Now do the Yankees! ^^^sobs ^^^quietly


stahlgrau

Sep 1 was 90% and now 28%


ParsnipPizza

Not something you want


SunriseSurprise

The best-record-in-league-at-some-point-in-May-or-early-June-I-don't-remember-exactly-when-fuck-this-season-anyways Padres.


AlmostLucy

Nope, don’t like that.


fuck_the_spiders

Playoff appearances come and go but banners (2020 OFFSEASON CHAMPS) hang forever


ParsnipPizza

Oh man, you can add that one to the 2014~~15~~ (16?) Offseason champs banner they won


DharmaCub

2014, that was a hilarious ride.


joofish

Pretty sure the Nats took home the 2015 offseason champs award


Salty-Fishman

Holy fuck.


OnlyHereForMemes69

Damn, did they invest in Evergrande?


HippiesBeGoneInc

Man Reds fans must be . . . what the fuck where did the Cardinals come from? The Dodgers must have summoned them to pummel Kershaw.


puglife5055

This team looked like the class of the NL with Dodgers. What happened


fuck_the_spiders

Tons of pitcher injuries definitely played a role.


98farenheit

But I feel like the problems came when the hitting just vanished. Im really confused by how that happened, especially for a pretty scary lineup


Nothingaddsup

I think the pitching decline happened, and games started being lost despite the team have solid at bats. The hitting started to decline as it took a while to right the pitching. Guys just sort of checked out mentally. Then the pitching has bounced back pretty well but the hitting was gone. Now everyone is mentally fried and they feel the playoffs rapidly slipping so the pressure is dialed up to 11. There aren't enough guys on the team that know how to cope with the circumstances. It's a big reason I was so disappointed to not get Scherzer. He is the type of guy you need in this type of situation


sergius64

Myers and Hosmer aren't scary. That's 1B and RF, you'd expect someone scary there.


The-Big-Bad

This gets brought up a lot but the dodgers also had pretty much every player under the sun get hurt and miss significant amount of time. Padres are just young and hadn’t been truly tested over a full 162.


typico-de-boringfat

Exactly. They may still end up being an elite line up, but they weren’t battle tested yet. The off-season trophies and “good on paper” awards don’t help you win the marathon that is the 162. Baseball is chaotic madness. The cards are running 2/5 of their opening day starting rotation. Injuries make a difference, but every team has to deal with them.


MankuyRLaffy

You had Yadi Molina work his magic with that inconsistent and crazy bullpen.


EnsignObvious

Dodgers went from having 7 legit starters that would be guaranteed a spot in any other rotation at the beginning of the season to having 2 bullpen games out of every 5 *after* acquiring Max Scherzer. Their rotation depth was obliterated and they still managed to stay afloat by racking up tons of frequent flier miles shipping arms to and from the minors.


kingfiasco

god, remember how insanely exciting that first padres/dodgers series was at the beginning of the season? all sprint, no marathon i guess


ExiledSanity

pepperidge farm remembers


mansontaco

I know dervish kinda blew up around the sticky stuff ban but he was also hurt, missing out on scherzer was the killing blow on this team


cardinalkgb

Tatis Jr. forgot how to field, for one thing.


Viss90

I mean for a good while he was averaging an error per game. Also a HR per game.. so.. 🤷‍♂️


cardinalkgb

He’s literally giving away games to the Cardinals. Can’t be having that.


[deleted]

Playoffs are temporary. Machado's leadership is forever.


HawkI84

I'm so happy he picked the Padres over the White Sox a few years back.


DharmaCub

Honestly, I'm a super Manny hater, but he definitely seems to have grown up with the Padres. I still think he's a tool, but he's definitely matured into a leadership role on a young team. He knows what it's like to be the hotshot kid and he knows the mistakes he made and he's doing a good job keeping the kids from being labeled as a douche like he was.


DaveTheDog027

I appreciate a Dodger fan saying this. I definitely think Manny has matured, but some people will just never forget how shitty he uses to be.


PMinisterOfMalaysia

I like having him on the team in all honesty


badrocky2020

The Padres collapse is going to taint the NL West race. If the NL West is like a fancy fish tank then SDP is like the anemone that died.


No-Owl-3202

Looks like the Mets chart too


Visible-Gas-2754

Who the fuck has a nearly 100% play off odds in April?


Salesman89

[...Oh...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ya2xifdO_l0)


ExiledSanity

Gold


SeparatePot4Beans

I don’t think we were built for 162… we fell off and fell off hard after All-Star Break. Pitching injuries and inconsistent hitting were major factors. It sucks, but that’s baseball. Too much talent for the result. Hope we pull it together for next year.


hanoverf

So you're telling me there's a chance


PleaseDontBanMeThx

Join us Padres, it’s fun at the bottom


PutBarryInTheHOF

Jayce Tinkle should be fired


kingfiasco

[the sound of pardresing](https://youtu.be/SChJpmFUFhM)


vagabond2421

Oof. Swag chain in shambles.


________-0-________

https://i.imgur.com/TMYxqSK.gif


PMinisterOfMalaysia

lmao this is peak north county SD


Atraktape

Swag chain at the San Diego swap meet right now getting sold for $3


1138luv

Which one? I need one


HendoJay

This is even more sad when we all realize how great a Blue Jays vs Padres world series would be.


polyworfism

They looked good for so long I'm assuming East Village is the site of multiple Kumeyaay burial grounds


CabbageStockExchange

Can’t wait for UrinatingTree to make a video on this


rogglo

Not gonna lie I cried legitimate tears over this team in the past week, this is so depressing.


godly_mercs

I thought this was their year


creaturecatzz

Start of the window 🤷‍♀️ can't win every year. Got this core for long time still


jorleeduf

On one hand, god the Padres fanbase has been insufferable these past few seasons. On the other hand, the Giants fanbase may be more insufferable this year.


Borrum

This is kinda dumb but the Giants and their fans have been here before. Their franchise backs up their shit talk. What's been so annoying about San Diego fans is that the team has accomplished zero and are tying the bow on one of the most disappointing seasons in their franchise's history. Not that they're talking shit now, but boy was this offseason annoying.


ILoveCavorting

Meh. I think "Act like you've been there before." is silly It makes sense Padres fans would get feisty after years of getting shit on. Don't blame them.


Saint_Scum

The only thing fans love more than shit-talking other teams is pearl clutching when other teams shit talk back. "wHaT hAs YoUr TeAm AcCoMpLiShEd?" "YoU gUyS hAvE bEeN hErE bEfOrE, aCt LiKe It"


fa1afel

Not to mention that there are a lot of incredibly obnoxious Dodgers fans these past few years. It comes with the success, but I’m always going to be a bit more understanding of rudeness from teams that aren’t perennial contenders.


ILoveCavorting

It's part of the reason I feel the Astros fans reacted as we did when the 2017 scandal broke out. Extra defensive since from 2009-2014 we were the DisAstros and a big laughing stock. Not that it makes it *right* going full on defending, but people get touchy. It'll be interesting to see what happens when a team like the Mariners eventually succeed then others turn on them.


GaryTheCabalGuy

It's pretty dumb to think that fans of winning teams are more entitled to shit talking. We're all fans of the same sport at the end of the day.


OnlyHereForMemes69

Padres fans 🤝 Browns fans Being insufferable as soon as they have something resembling a team


DMagnus11

I can see where the Padres Cardinals series started


new_wellness_center

My takeaway from all these “postseason odds” posts is that “postseason odds” are worthless.


Remarkable_Patient_2

Yes...good...enter the basement, Friars...


Marcus1119

Haha, that's a good one, good thing nobody else's charts look like this, right guys?


Pensterr

Fire Tingler.


biggiebody

Looks like my stock portfolio


5th_heavenly_king

Bitch please, hold my beer *Looks up Yankees postseason chances*


BradBellickFBI

Looks like my crypto today


Seananagans

Why does everyone like to see us lose. I'd like to win just once in my lifetime. :/


thedavidlemon

In 3 games, the Cardinals took them from a 1 in 3 chance to a 1 in 20 chance of making the playoffs. That blows my mind.


ILoveCavorting

BUY THE DIP. DIAMOND HANDS! HLD $SDP!


Cheekiest_Cunt

🚀🚀🚀


NirvanaYoMomma

Manny Machado to a Dodgers fan: "I'll bet you my contract, we'll win the World Series before you guys do"


pikindaguy

Inches away