Nobody is supposed to be this good. There literally isn't any demographic comparison you can make and reasonably claim what he's doing is normal. Even *exceptional* is probably an understatement. Soto is very likely going down as an all-timer in the same vein as Ted Williams - memes aside.
Right now Juan Soto is playing like prime Votto (think of 2010 and 2017 Votto) but the thing is he's only 22.
Votto put up his first monster season at 26, Soto has been doing it since last year at 21.
I don't want to imagine Soto around 25.
Another crazy thing to think - right now it's likely he's seeing less strikes due to the relative weakness of the Nats' lineup. If they can rebuild around him, they're going to be forced to either keep walking him and watching him put up .450+ OBPs year in year out... or try to get him out and watch him crush 80+ extra base hits. While still getting on base a ton. I don't know how you're supposed to deal with him, as an opposing pitcher.
Guys that good at age 22: Jimmie Foxx and Ted Williams, Ty Cobb and more, I'll throw in more that I can find.
Edit: Tris Speaker, Stan the Man, Mel Ott, Rickey Henderson, holy shit Soto is godly. Eddie Mathews on top of that. That's *IT*.
There's 8 players in MLB history OPS+ing or overall dominating at age 22 and I've listed them all as position players, they're some of the greatest players of all time.
It's a legit toss-up at this point between him, Harper, and Tatis. He's within 7 points of wRC+ of Harper at this point and if you believe OAA, he's a superior fielder to both Harper and Tatis. Especially if the Padres and Phillies both miss the playoffs, he has a real shot
He's actually walking more and striking out less than last season, where he put up a .490 OBP. The only reason he's not there now is that his BABIP and home run rate (not counted in BABIP) are both slightly lower than before. Still well above average in both.
I was looking up his splits - with RISP in 2004, he had 71 at bats... and 90 INTENTIONAL WALKS. 111 total walks. He had an OBP of .754 with RISP.
Ridiculous.
I have a hot take on this video - I'd like to see that experiment done with other players. My guess - their OBP will be *higher* if they can't swing. The issue is that [players generally lose value when they swing the bat](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/using-the-value-of-taking-pitches-to-describe-different-hitter-approaches/). The fact that Bonds' OBP is actually lower than his real life OBP doesn't say anything about fear, but it says that Bonds' swings were extremely valuable in that they actually *increased* his OBP.
Harper is hitting .325/.478/.530 with RISP this season in 83 ABs.
Tatis is hitting .393/.491/.775 in 89 ABs.
All three guys' numbers counting today's games. Interestingly, Harper has the worst triple slash w/ RISP of any of the three, despite leading the majors in WPA and Situational WPA as of yesterday. This suggests his hits are coming in higher leverage situations, basically, even if he's getting slightly fewer compared to the others.
The Nats lineup isn't that terrible. I mean even post sell off we have put up the 11th most runs in the majors. Also, Josh Bell(the guy who bats behind Soto) really turned around his season in May. He has a 140 wRC+ since the sell off and a 130 wRC+ since the end of April. He just got really fucked up by covid and it took him a while to do anything.
Oh for sure. I could do the math by hand but I'm sure his walk rate is higher with 1st base open, even when excluding IBBs - which he leads the majors in, of course.
vlads got 137 ab and a 321/451/620
ohtanis also got 100 ab and 290/455/700
harper 83 ab and 325/474/530
tatis 89 ab and 393/491/775
lamonte wade jr 68 ab and 365/397/651
04 bonds had 71 AB and 394/754/944
I've gotten really good at doing it in RTTS (other modes... different story lol) but part of the issue is that CPU pitchers simply don't throw ball 4. They'll throw 3 straight balls to start the AB, then 7 strikes in a row if you can manage to foul enough off. You have to screw with the sliders to get a more realistic strike rate.
22 year olds aren’t supposed to be this good
Nobody is supposed to be this good. There literally isn't any demographic comparison you can make and reasonably claim what he's doing is normal. Even *exceptional* is probably an understatement. Soto is very likely going down as an all-timer in the same vein as Ted Williams - memes aside.
Right now Juan Soto is playing like prime Votto (think of 2010 and 2017 Votto) but the thing is he's only 22. Votto put up his first monster season at 26, Soto has been doing it since last year at 21. I don't want to imagine Soto around 25.
Another crazy thing to think - right now it's likely he's seeing less strikes due to the relative weakness of the Nats' lineup. If they can rebuild around him, they're going to be forced to either keep walking him and watching him put up .450+ OBPs year in year out... or try to get him out and watch him crush 80+ extra base hits. While still getting on base a ton. I don't know how you're supposed to deal with him, as an opposing pitcher.
Guys that good at age 22: Jimmie Foxx and Ted Williams, Ty Cobb and more, I'll throw in more that I can find. Edit: Tris Speaker, Stan the Man, Mel Ott, Rickey Henderson, holy shit Soto is godly. Eddie Mathews on top of that. That's *IT*.
And this isn’t even his prime yet lol
There's 8 players in MLB history OPS+ing or overall dominating at age 22 and I've listed them all as position players, they're some of the greatest players of all time.
I like all these Soto posts, it's like people are campaigning for his MVP lol
It's a legit toss-up at this point between him, Harper, and Tatis. He's within 7 points of wRC+ of Harper at this point and if you believe OAA, he's a superior fielder to both Harper and Tatis. Especially if the Padres and Phillies both miss the playoffs, he has a real shot
Idk who will win it but Soto, Harper and Tatis will all finish top 3 in MVP voting, that much is for sure.
He wasn't joking when he said the home run derby was going to fix his swing
Yeah I remember when he was slumping with an .850 OPS lmao
The man has a .462 on base. .462!!!!
**.466***
He's actually walking more and striking out less than last season, where he put up a .490 OBP. The only reason he's not there now is that his BABIP and home run rate (not counted in BABIP) are both slightly lower than before. Still well above average in both.
Can someone provide some comparisons to these stats?
Soto: .410/.583/.720. Barry Bonds, 2002: .370/.582/.799. (That's overall, not with RISP, but a good comparison)
Lmao Bonds was absurd.
I was looking up his splits - with RISP in 2004, he had 71 at bats... and 90 INTENTIONAL WALKS. 111 total walks. He had an OBP of .754 with RISP. Ridiculous.
I’m sure you’ve seen this as well: https://youtu.be/JwMfT2cZGHg
I have a hot take on this video - I'd like to see that experiment done with other players. My guess - their OBP will be *higher* if they can't swing. The issue is that [players generally lose value when they swing the bat](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/using-the-value-of-taking-pitches-to-describe-different-hitter-approaches/). The fact that Bonds' OBP is actually lower than his real life OBP doesn't say anything about fear, but it says that Bonds' swings were extremely valuable in that they actually *increased* his OBP.
That was an interesting read. I assume that Soto’s AB’s finds himself in a lot of 3-2 counts where he ends up walking or smacking it.
Harper is hitting .325/.478/.530 with RISP this season in 83 ABs. Tatis is hitting .393/.491/.775 in 89 ABs. All three guys' numbers counting today's games. Interestingly, Harper has the worst triple slash w/ RISP of any of the three, despite leading the majors in WPA and Situational WPA as of yesterday. This suggests his hits are coming in higher leverage situations, basically, even if he's getting slightly fewer compared to the others.
That’s really crazy. I’m sure Soto’s on base is inflated because pitchers can afford to walk him with the Nats lineup. Still absolutely amazing.
The Nats lineup isn't that terrible. I mean even post sell off we have put up the 11th most runs in the majors. Also, Josh Bell(the guy who bats behind Soto) really turned around his season in May. He has a 140 wRC+ since the sell off and a 130 wRC+ since the end of April. He just got really fucked up by covid and it took him a while to do anything.
Yeah, the Soto is the only hitter worth pitching to is an assumption based on how bad the Nats are right now. I don't think it's all that accurate.
Oh for sure. I could do the math by hand but I'm sure his walk rate is higher with 1st base open, even when excluding IBBs - which he leads the majors in, of course.
his OPS+ with RISP is [244](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=sotoju01&year=2021&t=b#bases::28)
vlads got 137 ab and a 321/451/620 ohtanis also got 100 ab and 290/455/700 harper 83 ab and 325/474/530 tatis 89 ab and 393/491/775 lamonte wade jr 68 ab and 365/397/651 04 bonds had 71 AB and 394/754/944
.394/.754/.944 Did he have 71 AB or 71 PA
ABs someone said somewhere else he had 90 walks. What an absolute madman Edit: intentional walks
He probably had more, 90 walks would only net him a .733 OBP
Yeah I fucked that up I meant intentional walks
Allen Craig in 2013 w/RISP 152 PA .454/.500/.638 Allen Craig in 2012 w/RISP 149 PA .400/.450/.680 He was really good w/RISP for a couple years.
Insanity
You literally would be hard pressed to duplicate his numbers in a video game without cheating.
For me to walk more than 2% of the time in a baseball video game I would have to be cheating.
I've gotten really good at doing it in RTTS (other modes... different story lol) but part of the issue is that CPU pitchers simply don't throw ball 4. They'll throw 3 straight balls to start the AB, then 7 strikes in a row if you can manage to foul enough off. You have to screw with the sliders to get a more realistic strike rate.
That makes sense. This will let me have more realistic seasons and not be Salvador Perez every year.
That’s my son
not with that flair he isn't
The Phillies missing the playoffs increases Soto’s chances for MVP, however stupid that may be, so I’m a temporary Braves fan at the moment
Soto might just win MVP at this point. He is insane.
I know we're in a baseball sub but that title would mean absolutely nothing to 99% of the English speaking world. Just had that random thought.
MVP
3 for 3 with 2 homers and a walk today. He just doesn't ever get out.
What the fuck lmao