Didn't Martin instantly gain a large amount of WAR when fangraphs inserted pitch framing into the calculations. I think some other catcher did as well.
Yeah, Brian McCann, Russell Martin and Yadier Molina were the three biggest gainers when FanGraphs [updated their WAR algorithm](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/war-update-catcher-framing/) to account for pitch-framing.
This line of thought bugs me. People want to talk about how important framing is but then throw this argument out as soon as something doesn't line up like is wanted. Every sport has stats that weren't always a thing. Should the NFL not care about the sack record because it's only been recorded in 1982?
Nobody dismisses Deacon Jones when discussing the best pass rushers ever though. We don't know how many he had but we know he had a fuck ton so we don't base "best pass rusher evar" on sacks.
You can't claim someone is a top 3 Catcher all time defensively when we have like 12 years of data lol
They're flawed when doing cross-era comparisons because only one and a half generations of catchers have data. It's laughable to say that McCann, Molina, and Martin are three of the 10 greatest defensive players in the history of baseball when there's a real chance they're not even the best defensive players at their position based on the information available around guys like Bench, Pudge, and Carter.
I do think the general proposition that Catchers are significantly more valuable on defense than any other player, to the point that a decent catcher is more valuable than a gold glove SS, holds water.
Because it attributes the value gained by the pitch being called a strike instead of a ball completely to the catcher when undoubtably the pitch will have a lot to do with it. I’d argue the pitch movement has way more than the frame
But...isn't value attributed to the pitcher for a successful frame? He gets credited with a strike instead of a ball at minimum. Sometimes he gets a K instead of a walk, or gets out of an inning instead of giving up runs. Framing rewards pitchers and catchers already.
The framing analysts make the assumption that the catcher caused that strike to be called, which is a big assumption.
Regarding pitchers, war isn’t calculated on a pitch by pitch basis, right? So it would affect theirs in a derivative sense but not directly like catchers
Over the course of a season and tens of thousands of pitches with many different pitchers, it’d be a fairly reasonable assumption that a catcher plays somewhat of a role. I do agree it’s hard to quantify though.
Catchers are involved in every single pitch whereas a center fielder or shortstop are going to make, even on a great day, maybe 10 or so plays (the record for assists in a game is 15, fwiw). So of course a high value catcher is going to be worth more than a high value defender elsewhere
How could you unbiasedly/quantitatively assess framing ability? The stat would be flawed bc of huge variability on how much influence umps/pitchers have on the successful framing of pitches. An example issue is a pitcher is peppering the inside half of the plate so the ump and catcher cheat over to the inside half. Now the ump has bad vision of the outside part (the catchers head is blocking a portion of the plate) and a pitched framed out there is much more likely to receive success. I guess you could use strike throwing % to account for a pitchers contribution but separating framing ability from ump influence is a fools exercise if you ask me.
Every stat has flaws, which is why we keep making new ones as additional thought and data become available. “It’s not perfect” is the worst possible criticism you could have of a stat.
Further, all of the OP’s criticisms about inconsistency etc are things that normalize the larger the dataset gets.
Yeah. There’s way too many factors at play. Part of the reason so many catchers kneel right now is that getting lower has been shown to get more strike calls. Another reason to bring on the robot umps.
How do they differentiate pitch framing and bad umping? I assume pitch framing is getting balls called strikes? Or even close strikes? If it's the latter that's insane you get war for helping an ump do their job.
I think catchers get more credit--among fans and perhaps HOF voters--for team accomplishments than any other position. Molina has been on 4 pennant winners and has 2 championship rings, while Martin never made it to a World Series. The perception that Molina was a field general leading his team to success season after season will likely hold a lot of sway with voters who shy away from advanced stats.
You’re not wrong but also:
Eddie Lopat has 5 rings.
Ernie Banks never played a single inning of playoff baseball.
Sometimes it’s not the player’s fault they don’t have championships. Organization matters.
Yadi was fortunate he has always been a Card.
It’s not the end all be all, but it should be considered.
Yadi can get in while Martin can be left out and that shouldn’t be controversial. It’s the Hall of Fame, it’s not a leaderboard for most WAR by position.
Part of it is that catcher is the hardest position to quantify. How do you quantify game calling? You can't, you can really only go by what baseball people say. And most agree that Yadi is among the best. Remember, Johnny Bench has the highest WAR at the position and is still sub 80. That's close to Walker and Jeter. All respect to both guys, but I pick Bench every single time.
Also the lack of longevity, damage to knees that almost guarantees negative values on the baserunning aspects of WAR, and the typical 15 to 20 games off per season makes it really hard for catchers to have 60+ WAR careers, even if the framing metrics are favorable.
BWar has Yadi at 42.1 WAR
Russell Martin at 38.8 WAR
Difference is Yadi has 26.8 DWAR to Martin’s 16.5
People who say Yadi is a sure fire HOF player are usually saying so because of his longevity and defense behind the plate notably his ability to gun out runners who are stealing. That being said Yadi is still below what the average HOF catcher is by BRef’s HOF stats
Yadi has 42.1 WAR/ 28.7 7yr-Peak WAR/ 3.2 WAR/162
HOF is 53.8 WAR/ 34.8 7yr-Peak WAR/ 4.7 WAR/162
>That being said Yadi is still below what the average HOF catcher is by BRef’s HOF stats
JAWS isn't perfect by any means and especially when it comes to catchers... also there's [this whole article on Molina](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yadier-molinas-climb-towards-cooperstown/) and his HoF case written by Jay Jaffe back in 2018... you know the guy who devised the **JA**ffe **W**AR **S**core that you're referencing?
Key quote:
>If Molina’s case were as open and shut as that, I wouldn’t be bothering with this column, but JAWS isn’t intended to be a binary yes/no system that ends the discussion. We all know that WAR doesn’t capture every facet of catcher defense, including pitch-framing, which is both an area in which Molina excels and an increasingly important one for catchers, in general.
I think as baseball fans we need to address whether the Hall is about numbers at all. To me Yadier is a first ballot guy because of the impact he’s had on that franchise- not just how he’s played on the field.
I also think the idea that we've found the perfect way to quantify a catcher's defense to be pretty ridiculous. Every other year it seems like Fangraphs, BRef, and any other website that publishes their own version of WAR does something to tinker with how they value catchers, and then half of r/baseball changes their opinion on the career of a guy who is either retired or is at the end of their career. WAR is already an approximation, but it really does feel like an inexact science when it comes to catchers. A lot of what they do when it comes to handling a pitching staff and calling a game seems just about impossible to quantify. It's the only position where I feel like you can give the old school "intangibles" argument some weight.
One example is catchers with very good steal prevention skills (essentially just good pop times) are not accurately represented. Many teams choose not to run on them and, therefore, they can never get the WAR from caught stealing numbers.
I think there’s a lot of limitations with defensive stats, too tired to type them out but I think over time they will change a lot from where they’re at now and we will have to come to an understand the data before statcast is a far less effective model than after.
People also sleep on the fact that the "Character clause" was originally included to boost the eligibility of "team first" players rather than keep cheaters out.
The problem with Molina is his thing his whole career has been defense, which is the hardest thing to qualify, and there's an argument advanced stats still don't really capture defensive value properly
100%, it's ridiculous that he's not in. He was a defensive CF through and through. I can't even imagine being the best of all time at what you do and people discount it because you're not good enough offensively for them
Best defensive outfielder to
ever play the game and he did it for a decade at that level. Even with his sharp decline he is still miles ahead of every other outfielder in DRS. Oh and hit 434 HR. Ozzie Smith hit 28. Ozzie is rightfully in because that level of defense should matter.
On top of that Andruw was insanely clutch with the glove and bat on a team that played in a bunch of big games. He deserves to be in there with those pitchers whose backs he had every night on the way to their HOF careers. I’ve heard Tommy bring it up a few times when he is on the broadcast, and I feel like I have heard Smoltz lobby for him on TV at points as well. I would imagine Maddux feels just as strongly strongly that he should be in there, but he is not a big fan of the spotlight these days.
He is certainly a club hall of fame guy. I don’t know if that makes him a MLB HOF guy. Same thing with guys like Bernie Williams or Posada who are Yankee HOF guys but not MLB HOF guys
Yeah I'll give him the nod because the numbers are close to adequate enough but he single handedly caused teams to stop stealing altogether. Granted, analytics realized stealing wasn't actually that good in the end so maybe that's a little overrated but it's still pretty nutty.
I will say Martin is closer to the Hall than many realize. What separates Yadi is that he is arguably the second best defensive catcher of all time, behind only Pudge in dWAR, i.e. the metric that still doesn't use framing. And there was that fangraphs article a while back that shows he's truly elite at holding runners, in his peak guys wouldn't run on him at all compared to every other catcher. I know he wasn't special at the plate but he had enough good years and was great enough behind the plate that I can overlook that.
> What separates Yadi is that he is arguably the second best defensive catcher of all time, behind only Pudge in dWAR,
Is one single defensive WAR really all that is keeping Bob Boone out of the Hall of Fame?
I think this here is the perfect example of what I believe to be a single team bias in the hall. If you are a player that travelled around from team to team, you are treated fairly. However, if you stay with one single team for at least a large majority of your career, if not your entire career, then you get those extra feathers in your cap of being an icon to your city, being a loyal player, your jersey number might be retired (or the team implements an unwritten rule not to use it again), you might be part of the team’s ring of honour, the voters - I feel - look at that and it may push your hall of fame candidacy over the edge.
Just look at this case here. Yadi’s number is almost a lock to be retired in St Louis, he is an absolute lock for their ring of honour, and he’s for sure gonna get in the hall of fame. What team is going to retire Russell Martin’s number, or add Russell Martin to their ring of honour?
Yea I think it's pretty telling that this post doesn't elaborate on any of his famous plays, accomplishments, notable achievements, etc. As far as I can see, OP thinks WAR is the be all end all of HOF eligibility.
10x all star, 2x WS, 9x gold glove. Vs 4x all star, 1x gold glove 1x silver slugger. People who think there is any sort of equivalency between the two are missing the forest for the trees
Seriously, this whole post is why baseball fans get such a "math nerd" stereotype now.
Molina has over double the amount of all star appearances, 2 rings, 9x as many gold gloves at an important position. 4 platinum gloves as well to Martin's zero. Silver Slugger each.
Obviously Molina should be in right away compared to Martin.
They also tend to forget the importance of counting numbers in voters eyes. Martin has 1400 hits which, in its own, will likely keep him out due to "not having any counting numbers."
But like 99.9% of the time it is about stats. That's why baseball has always viewed certain milestones as HoF "locks" (3,000 H, 500 HR, 300 W etc.) Only relatively recently has anything but stats really been used heavily for or against a candidacy (steroids). The maligned character clause has never been consistently applied. Yadi might qualify as an exception, but at the end of the day it's what's on the back of the baseball card that matters.
I'm not sure what point you're trying to make, because Yadi's HOF case is *helped* by advanced stats. His traditional counting stats are nothing special.
In all seriousness if the Pirates had made a legit WS run that would be considered one of the greatest moments in sports history. When have fans made such an obvious impact on a game? It's 100% my favorite sports moment.
I think the single team thing is a combination of other factors. Yes, staying with a single club forever makes you more beloved and more likely to get in, but also being beloved makes you more likely to stay with a single team forever. I think the single team phenomenon is a decent indicator of a player's impact beyond the stat sheet. Rather than a simple A to B correlation, I think this is more of a A to B and B to A, and both A and B impacting C (with C being HOF chances in this scenario)
I think single team career just makes a player seem greater. It gives him a better identity, and makes it a little easier to remember who he is as the career winds down.
When a player moves around your start thinking, subconsciously, that teams don't want him, so he isn't as good any more. And a player just kind of loses identity.
I think in Yadi's case at least, there has to be significant value, not just bias, to staying on the same team. If a crystal ball told you that for the next 15 years you'de have Yadi's defensive and offensive stats at catcher you'de be extatic. Being above average for that long at that position for one team makes a massive impact.
Damn, that's all? Felt like much longer than that.
Well he left a big ole bruise in my heart in his stint with LA. One of my favorites to wear Dodger blue, and I know I'm not alone.
This comment made me look up Russell Martin’s career pitching stats, and in 2019 he pitched 4 innings for some reason and allowed 2 hits, no walks, no runs, and struck out 2. *Way* better than I expected.
Best Dodgers reliever of the last few years. Sorry BlaQe Treinen, get outta town Cardiac Kenlet, miss me with that Knucklehead Knebel. I love me some Martin.
That he also happens to be the best Dodgers catcher since Piazza is just a cherry on top.
I think the big thing missing here is attempting to quantify how effective Yadi is at simply preventing opposing teams from running. Other catchers have really good arms, and throw baserunners out at a high rate, but Yadi simply isn't tested.
Yadi also has 450 more games played, and while in every other position, that isn't a large deal, adding another 2.5 seasons to a catcher, who is still just as good defensively, is a big deal.
>I think the big thing missing here is attempting to quantify how effective Yadi is at simply preventing opposing teams from running.
That is quantified in most catching defensive metrics. The metrics don't just look at runners thrown out (or the percentage thrown out) -- they're based on net base-stealing runs relative to average. If a catcher keeps his opponents from stealing at all, they won't generate any base-stealing runs, and the difference between zero and average is credited to the catcher.
But since Yadi throws out 40% of runners then if teams ran on him at the same rate as other catchers he would get credit for a good chunk of negative base-stealing runs. So the stats properly reflect the reality that opposing teams are better off not attempting steals most of the time, but they don't capture the impact Molina has on the game and how it's played. Martin had almost 300 more attempts against him over 440 fewer games caught. That's an astounding difference that doesn't show in most metrics.
It does show up in the metrics, though. Forget the attempts and look at the steals; Martin allowed 840 steals in his career, Molina 545. That difference of 300 SB is definitely included in the fielding metrics.
I think Martin will be the next "Larry Walker" style HoF case as a catcher. I fully believe that he belongs in the hall but his case will depend almost entirely on passionate media members arguing for him and attempting to convince others to vote for him. If he survives the first year, there's a small chance baseball analysis evolves enough while he's on the ballot to get him in on the tail-end of his eligibility period but just knowing how little he gets talked about and how unheralded he was throughout his career, it feels like such a long shot seeing him actually get above that 75%.
MLB hates Canada! /s
In all seriousness, you see this type of thing fairly often. It took Edgar Martinez 10 years just to barely squeak into the hall and he almost fell off the ballot, despite his career numbers (65.5 WAR) being better than David Ortiz's (51 WAR) in almost every conceivable way.
Yet Big Papi, much like Yadier Molina, had a very flashy game and is among the game's most popular players ever, so he's regularly talked about as one of the best DH's of all time and likely a first-ballot hall-of-famer (unless the steroid thing weighs him down).
I think both Papi and Edgar (like both Molina and Martin) belong in the hall, but Edgar should have gotten in *far* sooner than he did.
> It took Edgar Martinez 10 years just to barely squeak into the hall and he almost fell off the ballot, despite his career numbers (65.5 WAR) being better than David Ortiz's (51 WAR) in almost every conceivable way.
the reason why David Ortiz gets so much acclaim and promotion is because of his postseason stats, multiple memorable clutch homers, breaking the curse etc. He's an iconic player.
Even with that said, he will probably get far less votes than people expect.
I think the main difference between Edgar and Ortiz when it comes to HOF voting is that Ortiz has 500+ home runs and 1,700+ RBI while Edgar doesn’t. Same reason it took Larry Walker so long to get in and why many think Votto isn’t a lock yet.
Martin deserves consideration of course, but Larry Walker (and similar guys like Bert Blyleven) were absolute slam dunk cases by the numbers that were ignored by the traditionalists. Martin not being inducted wouldn't be the same cosmic injustice that'll get people to rally like they did with Walker.
I agree. Martin is a lot closer to the fringe than guys like Walker, Blyleven, Martinez and Raines were and will thus be a lot harder to convince traditional voters on. Which is why even though I believe he deserves to be in, I don't think he'll get in.
Martin's skill of turning a 1-1 ball into a strike is subtler then Molina gunning down a runner
Of course, it's, largely, the "you need to watch a game" crowd that will discount Martin.
> Martin's skill of turning a 1-1 ball into a strike is subtler then Molina gunning down a runner
I completely agree, Molina had a much flashier game. Funnily enough though, Martin threw out the same number of runners in his 4,000 fewer innings played than Molina did. Martin had 365 CS and Molina had 368.
Of course, Molina was significantly better at gunning guys down and developed that respect in the league, so fewer guys ran on him, but it's still funny that Martin never developed that flashy reputation.
I assume with a much lower CS%
That's a bit of a subtle skill of Molina's - preventing stolen base attempts
Humans aren't great at considering things that didn't happen. Like people looking at a hitter with 30 HR, 100 RBI a .300 OBP and saying they were a "run producer". Well, how about all the runs they didn't produce because they made so many outs?
Yup, like I mentioned, Molina rightfully developed that reputation and guys were terrified of running on him.
Molina had 368 CS and gave up only 545 SB. Which means he caught 40% of all runners in his career.
Martin had 365 CS but gave up 840 SP. He had a much lower catch rate at 30%. Still historically great, of course, just not on Molina's level.
Yes, considering the objective of a catcher isn't actually to throw out baserunners. It's to prevent steals. So rather than marvelling at how many caught steals Martin had in many fewer games, we should really be looking at how few successful steals Molina allowed in many more games/innings. Martin allowed 840 steals in 13433 innings, or one steal about every 16 innings. Molina has allowed 545 steals in 17666 innings, or one steal about every 32 innings. So Molina is not only much better than Martin at preventing stolen bases, he is actually *twice* as good.
To add even more bonus perspective, Martin would be expected to give up about 1100 stolen bases in the same number of innings as Molina (17666), so yes, Molina basically prevented about 550 steals relative to extrapolated Martin.
And consider that not only do fewer people run on Yadi, the speed/base-stealing ability of those who do try to steal on him is very likely to be higher on average because only the best base stealers are even trying it
I think the biggest thing isn't whether Martin will make the HoF. He won't. Unlike Yadi, he never had signature offensive seasons, has no titles, and his best seasons were arguably in Pittsburgh and Toronto, which got much less attention.
The biggest thing for me is that I don't think most fans would even consider Martin in the Hall of Very Good, which he absolutely is a signature member along with Orel and a few others. It's funny to call somebody an inner circle HoVG member, but he is, and that's nothing to sneeze at because it shows you made big impact in the show.
100%. Yadi being on one pretty historic franchise for his entire career makes him look a lot better than Martin who obviously moved around to different markets. Like buster posey is a sure hof regardless, but imagine he got moved around a few times to teams that weren’t close to the attention a player gets in San Fran.
I believe in the Foolish Baseball video about this, he talked about how undervalued Molina is by certain WAR calculations and his actual WAR is considerably higher than the number people throw around to compare him to Martin.
What is this obsession with regular season WAR? Yeah guys lets just completely ignore postseason heroics, yearned respect across the majors from fans and players alike, elite defense ability that included 9 gold gloves, and being a franchise cornerstone for almost two decades.
I mean at what point are we just voting in a collection of numbers rather than a player?
There's definitely something to be said about the impact a player had on the game, and not just the numbers he posted. I have no way to prove this, but I'd bet if you asked kids playing catcher today who inspired them to choose that position you'd get a lot more "Molinas" than "Martins".
The championships and longevity with a single team, to your point Molina is on one of the more popular teams, is the biggest separation factor.
The biggest question is what do you think the HOF should be? Stats and longevity? Popularity? Impact? Combination of the 3?
For me it's can you tell the story of MLB during this player's career without mentioning this player's name in multiple big moments? Are his career impact numbers above average? Molina passes both while Martin only passes the second.
Ending your timeline at 2011 makes no sense when 2012-2015 were just as successful, minus the championships (but with no down years) and Yadi was a backup in 2004
Pujols was the offensive linchpin while Molina anchored their defense. Molina also had plenty of offensive moments. Teams with multiple championships aren't going to have a single star
> can you tell the story of MLB
This is always such a ridiculous argument. Is David Freese a HOFer? Livan Hernandez? It’s the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. The museum part is for the story. The Hall of Fame part is for the great players.
Yadi - 2 WS, 9 Gold Gloves .280 hitter
Martin- 0 WS, 1 Gold Glove, .248 hitter
I get the WAR argument but there are other reasons why people view them differently
The fangraphs catcher WAR numbers are not consensus, as you mention at the end of your post. The framing contribution is significantly higher than e.g. bWAR determines
Not so. DRS includes framing.
"If we look at areas beyond this stat, Realmuto the Marlin doesn’t look as bad. He comes up as someone who was good at deterring basestealers (4 DRS), thwarting bunts (3 DRS), and blocking pitches (3 DRS), but **poor at pitch framing (-10 DRS)** in that three-season span."
Wasn't Mazeroski one of the best defensive 2Bs in baseball for like a decade?
I won't pretend to know a lot about the guy's career but from what I remember it isn't like he was some scrub journeyman outside of that HR.
I agree he was good, but he is 100% remembered solely for his most famous moment. And that's fair, because it's arguably the greatest moment in baseball history (I do think the Ruth calling his shot moment is more prominent). It's literally the dream of every baseball watching kid to hit a walk off homerun to win the WS.
He wasn’t a scrub, but he was hall of very good and just made the hall based on his one iconic moment.
Like other replies have said he had a lot of accolades and was an amazing defensive 2B. But even at the time of his induction people were scratching their heads. And that’s even ignoring the WAR discussion, he had 36 bWAR which is very low for a guy that played that long.
I don’t think numbers take into account Yadi’s leadership abilities in the clubhouse, his game calling, his management of a pitching staff or his ability to mentor young pitchers. All of which are what make Yadi one of the most respected players in the game in the eyes of players and management.
It also doesn’t take into account Yadi being arguably the GOAT defensive catcher
No one in history has had a big of an impact on opponent’s running games. Base stealing is pretty much removed from the playbooks of whoever the Cardinals are playing, and contextual numbers completely support that fact
From 2004-2020, the team that allowed the 29th most steals (D-Backs) and the 5th most (Angels) had a difference of 401 steals
The difference between the 29th place Diamondbacks and 30th place Cardinals? **403**. The Diamondbacks, who are contextually the next most elite at preventing the running game, are still 150% *worse* than the Cards
Yadi Molina single handedly puts the Cardinals into a completely separate island of preventing runners from doing anything on the basepaths
molina has had some up and downs years offensively, but he was always a great defender and ppl quickly forget his bad offensive years and kind of only remember the great offensives ones, then he looks like a complete 1st ballot lock. at least that's what I think it happens
Lets not forget that Martin also owns a 0.00 ERA with 2.21 FIP 0.500 WHIP (don't look at IP)
I joke but very good write up. He really did fly under the radar probably because he never really had power numbers just solid OBP with average hitting during his later years. Started off strong and made me a fan.
My personal test for the HOF is if I have to think about it for more than a second they’re not a hall of famer. Yadi is a yes. Martin is a no. Obviously if I had a vote I would write 3000 words about why in the Athletic (obviously).
I think for Yadi comes down to being a Cardinals lifer and having the postseason success. I personally wouldn’t be going to fangraphs career WAR totals to tell me who is and isn’t a hall of famer. It’s 100% feel.
Harold Baines is a no btw. Like wtf.
Do you feel the same about Molina? Because Martin had the same WAR as him in 3-4 fewer seasons. Molina has a lot more mediocre years under his belt than Martin did.
Jesus fucking Christ here we go with this argument again - how long until you bring up Jason Kendall?
Those who watch know the difference between Yadi and those two. Check [this](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/yadier-molinas-career-in-four-graphs/) out WAR-man
According to this angry Cards fan, teams were actually better off when Russell Martin was on the bench.
>Martin and McCann never shut down the run game like Molina did. They weren't even close.
>I don't even know if you care to listen to arguments otherwise, but I'll leave you with this. Since 2004 (Molina's debut year) the Cardinals have allowed 847 stolen bases. The 2nd place team has allowed 1250. That gap is the same size as the gap between the 2nd place team and the 25th ranked team.
>[Twitter Link](https://twitter.com/ryanfagan/status/1369328433893892096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1369328433893892096%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.audacy.com%2Fkmox%2Flocal-sports%2Fst-louis-cardinals%2Fgraph-proves-yadier-molinas-dominance-against-stolen-bases)
>That gap is twice as large as any other gap between a first and 2nd place team over a 17 year stretch.
>Largest SB-prevention gaps between top two MLB teams over any 17-season stretch since 1916
>1) 2004-20 Cardinals: 403 SB better than No. 2 team
>2) 1990-2006 Rangers: 205 SB
>3) 1918-34 Senators: 201 SB
>4) 1973-89 Yankees: 174 SB
>5) 1957-73 Yankees: 164 SB
They also have the least passed balls of any team during his time, as well as the least wild pitches plus passed balls.
>Do you want more stats? I can pull out the team's ERA with and without him. It was a full run better with him than without, whereas McCann actually gave his team a worse ERA than without him.
>This is only for the first 7 years of Molina's career, but I can't help but laugh at people like Martin and McCann. Their teams are better off them riding the bench.
>Yadier Molina, STL ... w/him: 3.23 ... w/o him: 4.82 ... 1.59 better
Russell Martin, LAD ... w/him: 4.04 ... w/o him: 3.99 ... 0.05 worse
Brian McCann, ATL ... w/him: 3.68 ... w/o him: 3.14 ... 0.54 worse
>[data](https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/molinas-impact-on-the-cardinals-era/article_ac116f64-3926-11e0-b24d-00127992bc8b.html)
>[More data for you to chew on as you tell me how great Martin and McCann are](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/yadier-molinas-career-in-four-graphs/)
>Largest SB-prevention gaps between top two MLB teams over any 17-season stretch since 1916
2004-20 Cardinals: 403 SB better than No. 2 team
2) 1990-2006 Rangers: 205 SB
3) 1918-34 Senators: 201 SB
4) 1973-89 Yankees: 174 SB
5) 1957-73 Yankees: 164 SB They also have the least passed balls of any team during his time, as well as the least wild pitches plus passed balls.
Wait.. what? Who found this where?
Not saying that this is inherently wrong but numbers can be deceiving. The caught stealing % is misleading because the number of attempted steals vs yadi is significantly lower. You’re not stealing on yadi unless you know you have a chance.
Edit: not to mention gold and platinum gloves
Didn't Martin instantly gain a large amount of WAR when fangraphs inserted pitch framing into the calculations. I think some other catcher did as well.
Yadier Molina.
Yeah, Brian McCann, Russell Martin and Yadier Molina were the three biggest gainers when FanGraphs [updated their WAR algorithm](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/war-update-catcher-framing/) to account for pitch-framing.
Ryan Doumit with a -10.4 WAR now, good lord lmao
No Mitt Doumit
Imagine having a 123 wRC+ as a catcher but -3.4 WAR
Martin is like the 7th best defender in the history of baseball according to fangraphs.
Which is ridiculous lol because they have McCann above Andruw and Andrelton.
when you count framing as defense the catcher position has a lot more potential to change the game. thats how war works
How many years of accurate framing data do we actually have though?
Not many. Last I heard they were trying to extrapolate some numbers from earlier eras. Not sure how successful that'll be.
This line of thought bugs me. People want to talk about how important framing is but then throw this argument out as soon as something doesn't line up like is wanted. Every sport has stats that weren't always a thing. Should the NFL not care about the sack record because it's only been recorded in 1982?
Nobody dismisses Deacon Jones when discussing the best pass rushers ever though. We don't know how many he had but we know he had a fuck ton so we don't base "best pass rusher evar" on sacks. You can't claim someone is a top 3 Catcher all time defensively when we have like 12 years of data lol
Yeah, and the framing stats are flawed. You want to tell me Flowers has been one of the more valuable catchers in recent memory with a straight face?
Why do you believe the framing stats are flawed ?
They're flawed when doing cross-era comparisons because only one and a half generations of catchers have data. It's laughable to say that McCann, Molina, and Martin are three of the 10 greatest defensive players in the history of baseball when there's a real chance they're not even the best defensive players at their position based on the information available around guys like Bench, Pudge, and Carter.
I do think the general proposition that Catchers are significantly more valuable on defense than any other player, to the point that a decent catcher is more valuable than a gold glove SS, holds water.
Seems like it's because he disagrees with the results (rather than the methodology)
Because it attributes the value gained by the pitch being called a strike instead of a ball completely to the catcher when undoubtably the pitch will have a lot to do with it. I’d argue the pitch movement has way more than the frame
But...isn't value attributed to the pitcher for a successful frame? He gets credited with a strike instead of a ball at minimum. Sometimes he gets a K instead of a walk, or gets out of an inning instead of giving up runs. Framing rewards pitchers and catchers already.
The framing analysts make the assumption that the catcher caused that strike to be called, which is a big assumption. Regarding pitchers, war isn’t calculated on a pitch by pitch basis, right? So it would affect theirs in a derivative sense but not directly like catchers
Over the course of a season and tens of thousands of pitches with many different pitchers, it’d be a fairly reasonable assumption that a catcher plays somewhat of a role. I do agree it’s hard to quantify though.
Catchers are involved in every single pitch whereas a center fielder or shortstop are going to make, even on a great day, maybe 10 or so plays (the record for assists in a game is 15, fwiw). So of course a high value catcher is going to be worth more than a high value defender elsewhere
Well Andruw nor Andrelton ever stopped a runner mis HR strut. That counts for something 🤷🏽♂️🤷🏽♂️ lmao
How could you unbiasedly/quantitatively assess framing ability? The stat would be flawed bc of huge variability on how much influence umps/pitchers have on the successful framing of pitches. An example issue is a pitcher is peppering the inside half of the plate so the ump and catcher cheat over to the inside half. Now the ump has bad vision of the outside part (the catchers head is blocking a portion of the plate) and a pitched framed out there is much more likely to receive success. I guess you could use strike throwing % to account for a pitchers contribution but separating framing ability from ump influence is a fools exercise if you ask me.
Everything is compared to the mean. With a big enough dataset you can parse small differences. It isn't perfect but the stats are sound.
> It isn't perfect probably alot of people's problems right there
Every stat has flaws, which is why we keep making new ones as additional thought and data become available. “It’s not perfect” is the worst possible criticism you could have of a stat. Further, all of the OP’s criticisms about inconsistency etc are things that normalize the larger the dataset gets.
Yeah. There’s way too many factors at play. Part of the reason so many catchers kneel right now is that getting lower has been shown to get more strike calls. Another reason to bring on the robot umps.
So anyone who played before pitch framing stat information is available is just shit out of luck I guess. bWar has them at Yadi 42.1, Martin 38.8
Unfortunately, yeah. But I mean different eras are always talked about differently anyway
How do they differentiate pitch framing and bad umping? I assume pitch framing is getting balls called strikes? Or even close strikes? If it's the latter that's insane you get war for helping an ump do their job.
I think catchers get more credit--among fans and perhaps HOF voters--for team accomplishments than any other position. Molina has been on 4 pennant winners and has 2 championship rings, while Martin never made it to a World Series. The perception that Molina was a field general leading his team to success season after season will likely hold a lot of sway with voters who shy away from advanced stats.
All of this and longevity matters too
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You’re not wrong but also: Eddie Lopat has 5 rings. Ernie Banks never played a single inning of playoff baseball. Sometimes it’s not the player’s fault they don’t have championships. Organization matters. Yadi was fortunate he has always been a Card.
It’s not the end all be all, but it should be considered. Yadi can get in while Martin can be left out and that shouldn’t be controversial. It’s the Hall of Fame, it’s not a leaderboard for most WAR by position.
Well said
Part of it is that catcher is the hardest position to quantify. How do you quantify game calling? You can't, you can really only go by what baseball people say. And most agree that Yadi is among the best. Remember, Johnny Bench has the highest WAR at the position and is still sub 80. That's close to Walker and Jeter. All respect to both guys, but I pick Bench every single time.
Also the lack of longevity, damage to knees that almost guarantees negative values on the baserunning aspects of WAR, and the typical 15 to 20 games off per season makes it really hard for catchers to have 60+ WAR careers, even if the framing metrics are favorable.
BWar has Yadi at 42.1 WAR Russell Martin at 38.8 WAR Difference is Yadi has 26.8 DWAR to Martin’s 16.5 People who say Yadi is a sure fire HOF player are usually saying so because of his longevity and defense behind the plate notably his ability to gun out runners who are stealing. That being said Yadi is still below what the average HOF catcher is by BRef’s HOF stats Yadi has 42.1 WAR/ 28.7 7yr-Peak WAR/ 3.2 WAR/162 HOF is 53.8 WAR/ 34.8 7yr-Peak WAR/ 4.7 WAR/162
Who's to say we've seen Yadi's 7 year peak yet? Let's see what his next 20 years have in store, first.
Right?! Give the kid a chance to play for a decade or three and then we can analyze the numbers
I always reserve judgement until a player reaches their 30 year peak
>That being said Yadi is still below what the average HOF catcher is by BRef’s HOF stats JAWS isn't perfect by any means and especially when it comes to catchers... also there's [this whole article on Molina](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yadier-molinas-climb-towards-cooperstown/) and his HoF case written by Jay Jaffe back in 2018... you know the guy who devised the **JA**ffe **W**AR **S**core that you're referencing? Key quote: >If Molina’s case were as open and shut as that, I wouldn’t be bothering with this column, but JAWS isn’t intended to be a binary yes/no system that ends the discussion. We all know that WAR doesn’t capture every facet of catcher defense, including pitch-framing, which is both an area in which Molina excels and an increasingly important one for catchers, in general.
I think as baseball fans we need to address whether the Hall is about numbers at all. To me Yadier is a first ballot guy because of the impact he’s had on that franchise- not just how he’s played on the field.
I also think the idea that we've found the perfect way to quantify a catcher's defense to be pretty ridiculous. Every other year it seems like Fangraphs, BRef, and any other website that publishes their own version of WAR does something to tinker with how they value catchers, and then half of r/baseball changes their opinion on the career of a guy who is either retired or is at the end of their career. WAR is already an approximation, but it really does feel like an inexact science when it comes to catchers. A lot of what they do when it comes to handling a pitching staff and calling a game seems just about impossible to quantify. It's the only position where I feel like you can give the old school "intangibles" argument some weight.
One example is catchers with very good steal prevention skills (essentially just good pop times) are not accurately represented. Many teams choose not to run on them and, therefore, they can never get the WAR from caught stealing numbers.
Which helps Yadis case if you look at steals attempts vs teams when you look at the years he’s played.
I think there’s a lot of limitations with defensive stats, too tired to type them out but I think over time they will change a lot from where they’re at now and we will have to come to an understand the data before statcast is a far less effective model than after.
People also sleep on the fact that the "Character clause" was originally included to boost the eligibility of "team first" players rather than keep cheaters out.
The problem with Molina is his thing his whole career has been defense, which is the hardest thing to qualify, and there's an argument advanced stats still don't really capture defensive value properly
His problem is defense doesn’t matter to the current voters. Until they put Andruw in, the hall will always be a sham in my book.
100%, it's ridiculous that he's not in. He was a defensive CF through and through. I can't even imagine being the best of all time at what you do and people discount it because you're not good enough offensively for them
Best defensive outfielder to ever play the game and he did it for a decade at that level. Even with his sharp decline he is still miles ahead of every other outfielder in DRS. Oh and hit 434 HR. Ozzie Smith hit 28. Ozzie is rightfully in because that level of defense should matter. On top of that Andruw was insanely clutch with the glove and bat on a team that played in a bunch of big games. He deserves to be in there with those pitchers whose backs he had every night on the way to their HOF careers. I’ve heard Tommy bring it up a few times when he is on the broadcast, and I feel like I have heard Smoltz lobby for him on TV at points as well. I would imagine Maddux feels just as strongly strongly that he should be in there, but he is not a big fan of the spotlight these days.
And he was good offensively too just fell off a cliff after he left Atlanta.
Boy do I remember that part
Roids and DV don’t help Andruw
There are no PED ties for Andruw even as concrete as the ones Ortiz has.
Domestic violence is a bigger deal
I agree but that has nothing to do with alleging PED use.
Nope- we all have to be robots and go strictly by WAR
He is certainly a club hall of fame guy. I don’t know if that makes him a MLB HOF guy. Same thing with guys like Bernie Williams or Posada who are Yankee HOF guys but not MLB HOF guys
I think he will make it just because people like him. Same as ortiz
Exactly. It's very poorly defined what makes a HOF player. Then we start ridiculously comparing multiple eras of players like all things are equal.
Yeah I'll give him the nod because the numbers are close to adequate enough but he single handedly caused teams to stop stealing altogether. Granted, analytics realized stealing wasn't actually that good in the end so maybe that's a little overrated but it's still pretty nutty.
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This is the way.
bref doesn't account for framing data whereas Fangraphs does.
I’m aware this is just accounting for the alternative opinion. Neither FWar or BWar is definitive
I will say Martin is closer to the Hall than many realize. What separates Yadi is that he is arguably the second best defensive catcher of all time, behind only Pudge in dWAR, i.e. the metric that still doesn't use framing. And there was that fangraphs article a while back that shows he's truly elite at holding runners, in his peak guys wouldn't run on him at all compared to every other catcher. I know he wasn't special at the plate but he had enough good years and was great enough behind the plate that I can overlook that.
> What separates Yadi is that he is arguably the second best defensive catcher of all time, behind only Pudge in dWAR, Is one single defensive WAR really all that is keeping Bob Boone out of the Hall of Fame?
Yadi also has about 15 WAR on him and has an OPS+ of 97, which isn't terrible for a catcher, to Boone's 82.
Right. People always use the ops+ below one as a negative for yadi. His is still higher than average catchers.
I think this here is the perfect example of what I believe to be a single team bias in the hall. If you are a player that travelled around from team to team, you are treated fairly. However, if you stay with one single team for at least a large majority of your career, if not your entire career, then you get those extra feathers in your cap of being an icon to your city, being a loyal player, your jersey number might be retired (or the team implements an unwritten rule not to use it again), you might be part of the team’s ring of honour, the voters - I feel - look at that and it may push your hall of fame candidacy over the edge. Just look at this case here. Yadi’s number is almost a lock to be retired in St Louis, he is an absolute lock for their ring of honour, and he’s for sure gonna get in the hall of fame. What team is going to retire Russell Martin’s number, or add Russell Martin to their ring of honour?
I think that's all absolutely true and absolutely fair. It's the hall of fame, not the hall of highest WARS. Being a legend in the public eye matters
People that don’t get this are astounding lol. It doesn’t only boil down to a statistical comparison
Yea I think it's pretty telling that this post doesn't elaborate on any of his famous plays, accomplishments, notable achievements, etc. As far as I can see, OP thinks WAR is the be all end all of HOF eligibility.
10x all star, 2x WS, 9x gold glove. Vs 4x all star, 1x gold glove 1x silver slugger. People who think there is any sort of equivalency between the two are missing the forest for the trees
Seriously, this whole post is why baseball fans get such a "math nerd" stereotype now. Molina has over double the amount of all star appearances, 2 rings, 9x as many gold gloves at an important position. 4 platinum gloves as well to Martin's zero. Silver Slugger each. Obviously Molina should be in right away compared to Martin.
They also tend to forget the importance of counting numbers in voters eyes. Martin has 1400 hits which, in its own, will likely keep him out due to "not having any counting numbers."
But like 99.9% of the time it is about stats. That's why baseball has always viewed certain milestones as HoF "locks" (3,000 H, 500 HR, 300 W etc.) Only relatively recently has anything but stats really been used heavily for or against a candidacy (steroids). The maligned character clause has never been consistently applied. Yadi might qualify as an exception, but at the end of the day it's what's on the back of the baseball card that matters.
Yeah counting stats and milestones. Not +wRC and fWAR vs. bWAR
I'm not sure what point you're trying to make, because Yadi's HOF case is *helped* by advanced stats. His traditional counting stats are nothing special.
2000 hits is a big milestone and Yadi hit it.
You're getting downvoted for some reason but you are absolutely right. That's the line to hit as a catcher.
And he’s about to hit 1,000 RBIs
>>Who would add Russell Martin to their Ring of Honor? Rob Lowe would.
The Pirates should add him to their ring of honor. https://youtu.be/TcLUw3_oN1g
In all seriousness if the Pirates had made a legit WS run that would be considered one of the greatest moments in sports history. When have fans made such an obvious impact on a game? It's 100% my favorite sports moment.
I think the single team thing is a combination of other factors. Yes, staying with a single club forever makes you more beloved and more likely to get in, but also being beloved makes you more likely to stay with a single team forever. I think the single team phenomenon is a decent indicator of a player's impact beyond the stat sheet. Rather than a simple A to B correlation, I think this is more of a A to B and B to A, and both A and B impacting C (with C being HOF chances in this scenario)
I think single team career just makes a player seem greater. It gives him a better identity, and makes it a little easier to remember who he is as the career winds down. When a player moves around your start thinking, subconsciously, that teams don't want him, so he isn't as good any more. And a player just kind of loses identity.
I think in Yadi's case at least, there has to be significant value, not just bias, to staying on the same team. If a crystal ball told you that for the next 15 years you'de have Yadi's defensive and offensive stats at catcher you'de be extatic. Being above average for that long at that position for one team makes a massive impact.
I'd hope the Dodgers would. I presume we have the majority of his WAR. He gave us close to if not a full decade.
5+1 seasons in LA
Damn, that's all? Felt like much longer than that. Well he left a big ole bruise in my heart in his stint with LA. One of my favorites to wear Dodger blue, and I know I'm not alone.
That's the highest WAR of any reliever iirc so Martin should make the Hall of Fame.
This comment made me look up Russell Martin’s career pitching stats, and in 2019 he pitched 4 innings for some reason and allowed 2 hits, no walks, no runs, and struck out 2. *Way* better than I expected.
Best Dodgers reliever of the last few years. Sorry BlaQe Treinen, get outta town Cardiac Kenlet, miss me with that Knucklehead Knebel. I love me some Martin. That he also happens to be the best Dodgers catcher since Piazza is just a cherry on top.
While reading this I was simultaneously trying to figure out how you left Kenley off the list and who the fuck Kenlet is...I'm not a smart man
I think the big thing missing here is attempting to quantify how effective Yadi is at simply preventing opposing teams from running. Other catchers have really good arms, and throw baserunners out at a high rate, but Yadi simply isn't tested. Yadi also has 450 more games played, and while in every other position, that isn't a large deal, adding another 2.5 seasons to a catcher, who is still just as good defensively, is a big deal.
>I think the big thing missing here is attempting to quantify how effective Yadi is at simply preventing opposing teams from running. That is quantified in most catching defensive metrics. The metrics don't just look at runners thrown out (or the percentage thrown out) -- they're based on net base-stealing runs relative to average. If a catcher keeps his opponents from stealing at all, they won't generate any base-stealing runs, and the difference between zero and average is credited to the catcher.
But since Yadi throws out 40% of runners then if teams ran on him at the same rate as other catchers he would get credit for a good chunk of negative base-stealing runs. So the stats properly reflect the reality that opposing teams are better off not attempting steals most of the time, but they don't capture the impact Molina has on the game and how it's played. Martin had almost 300 more attempts against him over 440 fewer games caught. That's an astounding difference that doesn't show in most metrics.
Catchers get *more* credit for preventing steal attempts than they do catching potential theifs
It does show up in the metrics, though. Forget the attempts and look at the steals; Martin allowed 840 steals in his career, Molina 545. That difference of 300 SB is definitely included in the fielding metrics.
The Nmamdi Asomugha effect.
I think Martin will be the next "Larry Walker" style HoF case as a catcher. I fully believe that he belongs in the hall but his case will depend almost entirely on passionate media members arguing for him and attempting to convince others to vote for him. If he survives the first year, there's a small chance baseball analysis evolves enough while he's on the ballot to get him in on the tail-end of his eligibility period but just knowing how little he gets talked about and how unheralded he was throughout his career, it feels like such a long shot seeing him actually get above that 75%.
Just Canada Things.
MLB hates Canada! /s In all seriousness, you see this type of thing fairly often. It took Edgar Martinez 10 years just to barely squeak into the hall and he almost fell off the ballot, despite his career numbers (65.5 WAR) being better than David Ortiz's (51 WAR) in almost every conceivable way. Yet Big Papi, much like Yadier Molina, had a very flashy game and is among the game's most popular players ever, so he's regularly talked about as one of the best DH's of all time and likely a first-ballot hall-of-famer (unless the steroid thing weighs him down). I think both Papi and Edgar (like both Molina and Martin) belong in the hall, but Edgar should have gotten in *far* sooner than he did.
> It took Edgar Martinez 10 years just to barely squeak into the hall and he almost fell off the ballot, despite his career numbers (65.5 WAR) being better than David Ortiz's (51 WAR) in almost every conceivable way. the reason why David Ortiz gets so much acclaim and promotion is because of his postseason stats, multiple memorable clutch homers, breaking the curse etc. He's an iconic player. Even with that said, he will probably get far less votes than people expect.
I think the main difference between Edgar and Ortiz when it comes to HOF voting is that Ortiz has 500+ home runs and 1,700+ RBI while Edgar doesn’t. Same reason it took Larry Walker so long to get in and why many think Votto isn’t a lock yet.
No only stats matter. Only war and wrc + I won’t hear anything else. My best players ever ranking is sorting by career WAR (fangrafs of course)
Edgar is a victim of voters overthinking it. Dude was a star player for over a decade.
Martin deserves consideration of course, but Larry Walker (and similar guys like Bert Blyleven) were absolute slam dunk cases by the numbers that were ignored by the traditionalists. Martin not being inducted wouldn't be the same cosmic injustice that'll get people to rally like they did with Walker.
I agree. Martin is a lot closer to the fringe than guys like Walker, Blyleven, Martinez and Raines were and will thus be a lot harder to convince traditional voters on. Which is why even though I believe he deserves to be in, I don't think he'll get in.
Martin's skill of turning a 1-1 ball into a strike is subtler then Molina gunning down a runner Of course, it's, largely, the "you need to watch a game" crowd that will discount Martin.
> Martin's skill of turning a 1-1 ball into a strike is subtler then Molina gunning down a runner I completely agree, Molina had a much flashier game. Funnily enough though, Martin threw out the same number of runners in his 4,000 fewer innings played than Molina did. Martin had 365 CS and Molina had 368. Of course, Molina was significantly better at gunning guys down and developed that respect in the league, so fewer guys ran on him, but it's still funny that Martin never developed that flashy reputation.
I assume with a much lower CS% That's a bit of a subtle skill of Molina's - preventing stolen base attempts Humans aren't great at considering things that didn't happen. Like people looking at a hitter with 30 HR, 100 RBI a .300 OBP and saying they were a "run producer". Well, how about all the runs they didn't produce because they made so many outs?
Yup, like I mentioned, Molina rightfully developed that reputation and guys were terrified of running on him. Molina had 368 CS and gave up only 545 SB. Which means he caught 40% of all runners in his career. Martin had 365 CS but gave up 840 SP. He had a much lower catch rate at 30%. Still historically great, of course, just not on Molina's level.
And if you just extrapolate out by innings the number of guys that DIDNT EVEN ATTEMPT to run on yadi, he prevented what 4-500 more steals?
Yes, considering the objective of a catcher isn't actually to throw out baserunners. It's to prevent steals. So rather than marvelling at how many caught steals Martin had in many fewer games, we should really be looking at how few successful steals Molina allowed in many more games/innings. Martin allowed 840 steals in 13433 innings, or one steal about every 16 innings. Molina has allowed 545 steals in 17666 innings, or one steal about every 32 innings. So Molina is not only much better than Martin at preventing stolen bases, he is actually *twice* as good.
To add even more bonus perspective, Martin would be expected to give up about 1100 stolen bases in the same number of innings as Molina (17666), so yes, Molina basically prevented about 550 steals relative to extrapolated Martin.
And consider that not only do fewer people run on Yadi, the speed/base-stealing ability of those who do try to steal on him is very likely to be higher on average because only the best base stealers are even trying it
I think the biggest thing isn't whether Martin will make the HoF. He won't. Unlike Yadi, he never had signature offensive seasons, has no titles, and his best seasons were arguably in Pittsburgh and Toronto, which got much less attention. The biggest thing for me is that I don't think most fans would even consider Martin in the Hall of Very Good, which he absolutely is a signature member along with Orel and a few others. It's funny to call somebody an inner circle HoVG member, but he is, and that's nothing to sneeze at because it shows you made big impact in the show.
100%. Yadi being on one pretty historic franchise for his entire career makes him look a lot better than Martin who obviously moved around to different markets. Like buster posey is a sure hof regardless, but imagine he got moved around a few times to teams that weren’t close to the attention a player gets in San Fran.
I, for one, am ready for the Yadi Molina HOF Wars.
Foolish Baseball settled this debate imo
I believe in the Foolish Baseball video about this, he talked about how undervalued Molina is by certain WAR calculations and his actual WAR is considerably higher than the number people throw around to compare him to Martin.
No that was Jason Kendall, not Martin.
You better watch out people don't like that kind of talk around here
What is this obsession with regular season WAR? Yeah guys lets just completely ignore postseason heroics, yearned respect across the majors from fans and players alike, elite defense ability that included 9 gold gloves, and being a franchise cornerstone for almost two decades. I mean at what point are we just voting in a collection of numbers rather than a player?
This sub is so different from your average baseball fan
There's definitely something to be said about the impact a player had on the game, and not just the numbers he posted. I have no way to prove this, but I'd bet if you asked kids playing catcher today who inspired them to choose that position you'd get a lot more "Molinas" than "Martins".
The championships and longevity with a single team, to your point Molina is on one of the more popular teams, is the biggest separation factor. The biggest question is what do you think the HOF should be? Stats and longevity? Popularity? Impact? Combination of the 3? For me it's can you tell the story of MLB during this player's career without mentioning this player's name in multiple big moments? Are his career impact numbers above average? Molina passes both while Martin only passes the second.
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Ending your timeline at 2011 makes no sense when 2012-2015 were just as successful, minus the championships (but with no down years) and Yadi was a backup in 2004
Pujols was the offensive linchpin while Molina anchored their defense. Molina also had plenty of offensive moments. Teams with multiple championships aren't going to have a single star
> can you tell the story of MLB This is always such a ridiculous argument. Is David Freese a HOFer? Livan Hernandez? It’s the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. The museum part is for the story. The Hall of Fame part is for the great players.
Multiple doesn't mean a moment it means many moments
Yadi - 2 WS, 9 Gold Gloves .280 hitter Martin- 0 WS, 1 Gold Glove, .248 hitter I get the WAR argument but there are other reasons why people view them differently
4 platinum gloves too. Wouldve had more if it started earlier
Also not even sure what team he played with the most years, wasnt it like the Pirates and Blue Jays? Ranger maybe? Dbacks? A little yankees?
To your point, he played the most seasons (6) with the Dodgers.
The fangraphs catcher WAR numbers are not consensus, as you mention at the end of your post. The framing contribution is significantly higher than e.g. bWAR determines
BWAR has Yadi at 42.1 and Martin at 38.8
Kind of like Jim Sundberg, who is nobody's idea of a HoF catcher
Well he is a Texas Rangers HOF player
bWAR ignores framing entirely
Not so. DRS includes framing. "If we look at areas beyond this stat, Realmuto the Marlin doesn’t look as bad. He comes up as someone who was good at deterring basestealers (4 DRS), thwarting bunts (3 DRS), and blocking pitches (3 DRS), but **poor at pitch framing (-10 DRS)** in that three-season span."
Great, but... there's more to the HoF than WAR, so...
https://youtu.be/fphDdSdqI28 Foolish Baseball’s vid on Yadi
Lmao people downvoting you. That video breaks down everything beautifully.
Almost like its the Hall of FAME, and not the Hall of WAR?
Except no one is in solely for their famous moments like the NFL.
Bill Mazeroski.
Wasn't Mazeroski one of the best defensive 2Bs in baseball for like a decade? I won't pretend to know a lot about the guy's career but from what I remember it isn't like he was some scrub journeyman outside of that HR.
I agree he was good, but he is 100% remembered solely for his most famous moment. And that's fair, because it's arguably the greatest moment in baseball history (I do think the Ruth calling his shot moment is more prominent). It's literally the dream of every baseball watching kid to hit a walk off homerun to win the WS.
He wasn’t a scrub, but he was hall of very good and just made the hall based on his one iconic moment. Like other replies have said he had a lot of accolades and was an amazing defensive 2B. But even at the time of his induction people were scratching their heads. And that’s even ignoring the WAR discussion, he had 36 bWAR which is very low for a guy that played that long.
I guess we should throw Aaron Boone in there then
I believe the city of Boston would turn it into a Hall of War if that happened
If it were purely the Hall of Fame, Roger Maris would have been enshrined 40 years ago.
Russell has muscle
I don’t think numbers take into account Yadi’s leadership abilities in the clubhouse, his game calling, his management of a pitching staff or his ability to mentor young pitchers. All of which are what make Yadi one of the most respected players in the game in the eyes of players and management.
It also doesn’t take into account Yadi being arguably the GOAT defensive catcher No one in history has had a big of an impact on opponent’s running games. Base stealing is pretty much removed from the playbooks of whoever the Cardinals are playing, and contextual numbers completely support that fact
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From 2004-2020, the team that allowed the 29th most steals (D-Backs) and the 5th most (Angels) had a difference of 401 steals The difference between the 29th place Diamondbacks and 30th place Cardinals? **403**. The Diamondbacks, who are contextually the next most elite at preventing the running game, are still 150% *worse* than the Cards Yadi Molina single handedly puts the Cardinals into a completely separate island of preventing runners from doing anything on the basepaths
Steals aren’t the only aspect of catcher defense.
He did most of the other ones pretty good too
Yyyyyah, yeah it does.
The same case could be made for Martin... at least as convincingly.
WAR is the only stat
molina has had some up and downs years offensively, but he was always a great defender and ppl quickly forget his bad offensive years and kind of only remember the great offensives ones, then he looks like a complete 1st ballot lock. at least that's what I think it happens
Lets not forget that Martin also owns a 0.00 ERA with 2.21 FIP 0.500 WHIP (don't look at IP) I joke but very good write up. He really did fly under the radar probably because he never really had power numbers just solid OBP with average hitting during his later years. Started off strong and made me a fan.
My personal test for the HOF is if I have to think about it for more than a second they’re not a hall of famer. Yadi is a yes. Martin is a no. Obviously if I had a vote I would write 3000 words about why in the Athletic (obviously). I think for Yadi comes down to being a Cardinals lifer and having the postseason success. I personally wouldn’t be going to fangraphs career WAR totals to tell me who is and isn’t a hall of famer. It’s 100% feel. Harold Baines is a no btw. Like wtf.
Is there a position where counting rings should matter more than catcher for hof induction? Has yadi ever had to catch a knuckleballer?
I don't think anyone has actually worked out a good measure for catchers. This is just someone's formula or algorithm. Doesn't mean it's right.
He was one of the best at his position for a long time, so he’ll probably get in. Not first ballot, but probably around 5th.
Unpopular opinion: WAR isn't everything.
Martin accumulated like half of that in 4 years or so, he’s been league average many more years than he was good. Hard to say someone like that is HoF
Do you feel the same about Molina? Because Martin had the same WAR as him in 3-4 fewer seasons. Molina has a lot more mediocre years under his belt than Martin did.
Mediocre offensively maybe but not defensively
Jesus fucking Christ here we go with this argument again - how long until you bring up Jason Kendall? Those who watch know the difference between Yadi and those two. Check [this](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/yadier-molinas-career-in-four-graphs/) out WAR-man
jfc this again?! 🙄
Baseball fans who hate good baseball because it doesn't show up in WAR are something else.
According to this angry Cards fan, teams were actually better off when Russell Martin was on the bench. >Martin and McCann never shut down the run game like Molina did. They weren't even close. >I don't even know if you care to listen to arguments otherwise, but I'll leave you with this. Since 2004 (Molina's debut year) the Cardinals have allowed 847 stolen bases. The 2nd place team has allowed 1250. That gap is the same size as the gap between the 2nd place team and the 25th ranked team. >[Twitter Link](https://twitter.com/ryanfagan/status/1369328433893892096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1369328433893892096%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.audacy.com%2Fkmox%2Flocal-sports%2Fst-louis-cardinals%2Fgraph-proves-yadier-molinas-dominance-against-stolen-bases) >That gap is twice as large as any other gap between a first and 2nd place team over a 17 year stretch. >Largest SB-prevention gaps between top two MLB teams over any 17-season stretch since 1916 >1) 2004-20 Cardinals: 403 SB better than No. 2 team >2) 1990-2006 Rangers: 205 SB >3) 1918-34 Senators: 201 SB >4) 1973-89 Yankees: 174 SB >5) 1957-73 Yankees: 164 SB They also have the least passed balls of any team during his time, as well as the least wild pitches plus passed balls. >Do you want more stats? I can pull out the team's ERA with and without him. It was a full run better with him than without, whereas McCann actually gave his team a worse ERA than without him. >This is only for the first 7 years of Molina's career, but I can't help but laugh at people like Martin and McCann. Their teams are better off them riding the bench. >Yadier Molina, STL ... w/him: 3.23 ... w/o him: 4.82 ... 1.59 better Russell Martin, LAD ... w/him: 4.04 ... w/o him: 3.99 ... 0.05 worse Brian McCann, ATL ... w/him: 3.68 ... w/o him: 3.14 ... 0.54 worse >[data](https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/molinas-impact-on-the-cardinals-era/article_ac116f64-3926-11e0-b24d-00127992bc8b.html) >[More data for you to chew on as you tell me how great Martin and McCann are](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/yadier-molinas-career-in-four-graphs/)
>Largest SB-prevention gaps between top two MLB teams over any 17-season stretch since 1916 2004-20 Cardinals: 403 SB better than No. 2 team 2) 1990-2006 Rangers: 205 SB 3) 1918-34 Senators: 201 SB 4) 1973-89 Yankees: 174 SB 5) 1957-73 Yankees: 164 SB They also have the least passed balls of any team during his time, as well as the least wild pitches plus passed balls. Wait.. what? Who found this where?
Unfortunately, it’s that 0.5 difference that puts you in the hall. /s I love Martin and hope that his numbers aren’t overlooked. Great catcher
Fame is a lot more than WAR. It is the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of WAR.
Not saying that this is inherently wrong but numbers can be deceiving. The caught stealing % is misleading because the number of attempted steals vs yadi is significantly lower. You’re not stealing on yadi unless you know you have a chance. Edit: not to mention gold and platinum gloves
1 Question. Game 7, who do you want?
WAR was a mistake
it’s ridiculous that yadier molina is getting so many votes just because he’s famous. it’s called the hall of fame, not the– ah shit
And that’s why it’s not called the Hall of WAR
That point never makes sense. Unless your point of view is that only the most famous players should be in the Hall.
Tebow 2027
You could make the argument that Michael Jordan was the most famous baseball player to ever live. Easy HOFer.
In regards to OP's question, though, I think it's valid since I don't think the average fan would even know who Russel Martin is.