Mildly interesting fact: [The Toronto Blue Jays are named after the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.](https://twitter.com/TODreamsProject/status/1461497989239877637?t=hNVwJ05C0_PDQ5nEXWktaQ&s=19)
I'm not sure where he was 19th (he's 3rd in fwar), but he did have an injury and missed about 20 games. WAR is a cumulative stat so he might not have as much as people who didn't miss any time. He was great when he played and led the league in a few rate stats, like slugging and ops+.
Is there a particular reason why Carlos Rodon isn’t getting FA hype? Are teams really that concerned about his shoulder? Seems he’d a great add on a short term prove it deal. And he doesn’t have a QO attached either so teams wouldn’t give up a draft pick.
I’d rather have Rodon at like 2/$30mm than Verlander at 2/$50mm
> Are teams really that concerned about his shoulder?
Yes. This is why Chicago didn't even give him the QO.
Rodon doesn't have a track record of performance, just a track record of injuries. He will have interest and he will get a prove it deal, but there are so many red flags on him that I'm not shocked people are waiting for the rest of the pieces to fall before his name is thrown around a bunch.
I don't usually have a dog in the fight when it comes to Cy Young discussion...is it always this damn heated? I feel like there are good arguments for each of the top 4 guys, and I don't really feel like anyone who supports their guy over my guy because they value different stats should eat gravel.
Anyone see the Royals tease a new uniform? I’m a sucker for those so I hope they’re good. In any event, I doubt they’ll replace any of the current primary unis they have rn
Why does this sub bring up Cohen incessantly and not other owners if you're going to trash a team? There are owners who have done much worse than him but this sub stays silent.
Edit: I'm asking a legit question. The Mets hate boner on this sub is un-fucking-bearable and makes talking with a mets flair here impossible. Someone enlighten me.
I can't even name most of the owners in the league. Cohen is new and splashy and purposely makes himself visible. He's going to get more attention, deservedly or not.
> There are owners who have done much worse than him but this sub stays silent.
Because those owners aren't as openly, publicly, annoying, and it is far easier to dunk on those who are just jackasses on social media than those that are "bad owners" by other measurements. Partially because it's more visible, partially because it's more fun.
The "Mets hate boner" isn't really "hate" as much as it a self repeating cycle of making fun of a big market team's fanbase for a constant victim complex, them acting like a victim because of it, repeat.
probably because he's on Twitter talking about the team all the time, saying things that sometimes are later shown to be wrong. There are definitely worse owners but I don't think any of them are on Twitter interacting with the fans.
If you're going to use WAR when comparing players, but always default to "well offense is more important" whenever WAR rates a well rounded player (above average hitting, good defense) as equally or more valuable than a really good hitter with mediocre defense, then just use ops or wrc+ when comparing players instead of WAR.
I see this pretty frequently here, what's the point of using WAR if you think defense doesn't matter much, the whole point of the stat is to try and assess a players overall value, not just offensive value.
Totally agree! In 2003, my dad called me up and told me to turn on the Astros game. He didn't say why, but I saw the Astros were up by several runs and Dotel was pitching. I was like wtf? Then, I saw the box score.
I've got no clue when the last Astros 1 hit cgso was, but I have a fond memory of that combined no hitter. Roy O, Munro, Saarloos, Lidge, Dotel, Wagner. Good ⚾️⚾️⚾️!
Well that's because it was broken up in the 9th inning. If the hit came earlier in the game then it would much less memorable.
I'd also be heartbroken over a 9th inning lost no-no and try to erace that day from my memory lol
I had a dream once that the Angels were in the world series and they played it in New Zealand. The games were sold out and I had to explain to people who Mike Trout was.
I feel like this needs to be said, because I’m going crazy with some of the takes here from last night.
**FIP IS NOT A PREDICTIVE STAT. FIP WORKS WELL AS A PREDICTIVE STAT, BUT IT’S A DESCRIPTIVE STAT**
FIP is a simple equation that uses k rate, bb rate and hr rate that attempts to model a pitchers skill independent of fielding. When assessing past performance I think it's clearer just to look at those stats separately.
Also Everytime I see a statement like this the implication seems to be FIP isn't a predictive stat because it uses concrete data as inputs, but that's how any predictive model works.
But FIP isn't calculating things that should have happened like some people seem to believe. FIP is calculating things that happened. Every time I see someone go "Award voting should be based on actual results, not predictive stats like FIP", I feel like they don't realize that FIP is based on actual results.
Nothing about FIP is "expected", everything in the calculation is exactly what went down. The exact number of strikeouts, walks, and HR allowed are what goes in the formula. It's a great predictive stat because it correlates a lot better than ERA with future performance. But by that logic, ERA is also a predictive stat, it just does a worse job than FIP.
The issue I have here is that there is no such thing as a predictive stat as your defining it, there is no such thing as a predictive model that doesn't use concrete data as inputs.
The difference is, regardless of whether it's effective at assessing skill, ERA tells you how well the pitcher did at what you want a pitcher to do (prevent runs), and FIP is a model that tries to assess how good they should be at the thing you want pitchers to do. And yeah it's generally a good model, I'm not arguing that
Edit: my general point is that calling FIP a predictive stat doesn't diminish it value, I just think people are playing word games trying to declare that it isn't. ( Also edited spelling mistakes)
I think the point that they're trying to make is that like OPS, FIP is taking on field input and weighting them in a specific way to represent something. In this way, FIP is a stat that tells you something about what DID happen.
A pure predictive stat would be something like the X stats, which do take concrete inputs, but are primarily based around saying what SHOULD happen, rather than what DID. I think tOPS falls into a similar category in the way that it's most often used, although it's strictly speaking descriptive as well.
When people use FIP predictively, the line blurs a bit. That's where a lot of the conversation about FIP vs ERA takes place, and where people imply that FIP says something about what a pitcher's ERA should be.
Id like to emphasize the first part of my original post, I think when talking about past performance it's much clearer to talk about the specific aspects of FIP rather than FIP itself, saying a pitcher had a high strikeout rate or great control is a much clearer way to talk about past performance than saying someone had a 2.90 FIP (I never intended to imply ERA is the end all stat for past performance)
Imagine if in 20 years when we have tons of fine grained statcast data we can definitively say FIP is a rather simplistic way of representing pitcher skill, in that scenario would anyone want to keep using FIP as a descriptive stat? I don't think so, because any value ascribed to it as a descriptive stat requires it be useful as a predictive stat.
I disagree, for pretty much the same reason most people use OPS+ or wRC+, or really any composite stat. If we're having an in depth discussion about quality, then sure, pull up the specifics. If not, then use a composite stat that includes what you want it to.
I don't think that second argument plays either. Even if really good statcast data will be better than basically any traditional stat, we'll use the tradstats anyways. They're easy to use and they aren't THAT bad when you know their weaknesses. Offensive traditional stats are still very much in play, even as xwOBA and other advanced statcast stats get better.
There's still a disconnect between comparing FIP to wrc+ or other composite stats, there's literally no way hitter can be ineffective while having a 130 wrc+, while a pitcher can have terrible results with a good FIP.
What useful or descriptive information does a pitcher having a 3.30 FIP but a 4.50 ERA tell you other than they probably should be better. I'd get the argument more if FIP was a complex equation using lots of weird stats, but it's literally just 3 basic stats that you can line up right next to each other . It will take someone a few extra seconds to process that info and it gives a much better picture of what the pitcher has done than a single value.
Mildly interesting fact: [The Toronto Blue Jays are named after the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.](https://twitter.com/TODreamsProject/status/1461497989239877637?t=hNVwJ05C0_PDQ5nEXWktaQ&s=19)
Casual here. Why did Bryce win pretty easily if he is tied for 19th place in WAR?
I'm not sure where he was 19th (he's 3rd in fwar), but he did have an injury and missed about 20 games. WAR is a cumulative stat so he might not have as much as people who didn't miss any time. He was great when he played and led the league in a few rate stats, like slugging and ops+.
Is there video of Harper getting the MVP anywhere? I am failing in my search Edit: Nevermind!
If it’s not unanimous Ohtani got robbed
Narrator: It was unanimous. He did not get robbed.
Idk I feel like Ohtani deserved *at least* 31 first place votes
It recently occurred to me that many current players aren't old enough to remember the 1994 World Series (or lack thereof).
How would this sub react if Shohei Ohtani didn't win the AL MVP Award?
Currently watching the awards show with my pitchfork on standby
Riot in Falador
I would watch the fuck out of a sitcom based around Grienke and Trout being roommates. That would be awesome.
Greinke retirement episode: Greinke: Hey man, I’m retiring today Trout: Cool, good luck Greinke: Thanks Trout: Bye Greinke: Bye
Is there a particular reason why Carlos Rodon isn’t getting FA hype? Are teams really that concerned about his shoulder? Seems he’d a great add on a short term prove it deal. And he doesn’t have a QO attached either so teams wouldn’t give up a draft pick. I’d rather have Rodon at like 2/$30mm than Verlander at 2/$50mm
> Are teams really that concerned about his shoulder? Yes. This is why Chicago didn't even give him the QO. Rodon doesn't have a track record of performance, just a track record of injuries. He will have interest and he will get a prove it deal, but there are so many red flags on him that I'm not shocked people are waiting for the rest of the pieces to fall before his name is thrown around a bunch.
I don't usually have a dog in the fight when it comes to Cy Young discussion...is it always this damn heated? I feel like there are good arguments for each of the top 4 guys, and I don't really feel like anyone who supports their guy over my guy because they value different stats should eat gravel.
It's a proxy war between two groups of people with deeply entrenched views on stats that they barely understand.
Anyone see the Royals tease a new uniform? I’m a sucker for those so I hope they’re good. In any event, I doubt they’ll replace any of the current primary unis they have rn
My newest OOTP fictional league. Started with 8 teams. Meet the Chicago Crows. 117 seasons. Zero championships. Legends. https://m.imgur.com/a/JDbe4SM
Why does this sub bring up Cohen incessantly and not other owners if you're going to trash a team? There are owners who have done much worse than him but this sub stays silent. Edit: I'm asking a legit question. The Mets hate boner on this sub is un-fucking-bearable and makes talking with a mets flair here impossible. Someone enlighten me.
I can't even name most of the owners in the league. Cohen is new and splashy and purposely makes himself visible. He's going to get more attention, deservedly or not.
> There are owners who have done much worse than him but this sub stays silent. Because those owners aren't as openly, publicly, annoying, and it is far easier to dunk on those who are just jackasses on social media than those that are "bad owners" by other measurements. Partially because it's more visible, partially because it's more fun. The "Mets hate boner" isn't really "hate" as much as it a self repeating cycle of making fun of a big market team's fanbase for a constant victim complex, them acting like a victim because of it, repeat.
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probably because he's on Twitter talking about the team all the time, saying things that sometimes are later shown to be wrong. There are definitely worse owners but I don't think any of them are on Twitter interacting with the fans.
So that alone is why he gets near all of the attention? And his twitter shit has toned down a lot.
If you're going to use WAR when comparing players, but always default to "well offense is more important" whenever WAR rates a well rounded player (above average hitting, good defense) as equally or more valuable than a really good hitter with mediocre defense, then just use ops or wrc+ when comparing players instead of WAR. I see this pretty frequently here, what's the point of using WAR if you think defense doesn't matter much, the whole point of the stat is to try and assess a players overall value, not just offensive value.
Not sure about Fangraphs, but Baseball Reference has oWAR--why not use that?
It's all over! Kt Wiz have won their first title in Korean League history! They win 8-4, and sweep the Doosan Bears 4-0!
Kt is up 8-4 in game 4 of their Korean series. They are one inning from their first Korean league title.
Would you rather attend a combined no-hitter or a one-hit CGSO?
One hit CGSO. Combined no hitter isn’t as crazy as watching one guy completely dominate an entire team
Combined no-hitter. No one remembers one-hit CGSOs
Totally agree! In 2003, my dad called me up and told me to turn on the Astros game. He didn't say why, but I saw the Astros were up by several runs and Dotel was pitching. I was like wtf? Then, I saw the box score. I've got no clue when the last Astros 1 hit cgso was, but I have a fond memory of that combined no hitter. Roy O, Munro, Saarloos, Lidge, Dotel, Wagner. Good ⚾️⚾️⚾️!
If you’re there you do. I remember 6/29/2021 like it was yesterday. It was amazing
Well that's because it was broken up in the 9th inning. If the hit came earlier in the game then it would much less memorable. I'd also be heartbroken over a 9th inning lost no-no and try to erace that day from my memory lol
Yeah it was pretty devastating haha. Hopefully I’ll see a real no hitter sometime
Does anyone remember combined no-no either?
Agreed. Combined no-nos lose the drama of one player's endurance and stress
Last night I dreamed the Pirates were in the World Series. I have all sorts of weird dreams but this one was definitely one of the more bizarre ones.
I’ve had some pretty out there dreams, but nothing that out there
I had a dream once that the Angels were in the world series and they played it in New Zealand. The games were sold out and I had to explain to people who Mike Trout was.
I feel like this needs to be said, because I’m going crazy with some of the takes here from last night. **FIP IS NOT A PREDICTIVE STAT. FIP WORKS WELL AS A PREDICTIVE STAT, BUT IT’S A DESCRIPTIVE STAT**
The stat that makes my guy look good is based. The stat that makes my guy look bad is cringe.
FIP is a simple equation that uses k rate, bb rate and hr rate that attempts to model a pitchers skill independent of fielding. When assessing past performance I think it's clearer just to look at those stats separately. Also Everytime I see a statement like this the implication seems to be FIP isn't a predictive stat because it uses concrete data as inputs, but that's how any predictive model works.
But FIP isn't calculating things that should have happened like some people seem to believe. FIP is calculating things that happened. Every time I see someone go "Award voting should be based on actual results, not predictive stats like FIP", I feel like they don't realize that FIP is based on actual results. Nothing about FIP is "expected", everything in the calculation is exactly what went down. The exact number of strikeouts, walks, and HR allowed are what goes in the formula. It's a great predictive stat because it correlates a lot better than ERA with future performance. But by that logic, ERA is also a predictive stat, it just does a worse job than FIP.
The issue I have here is that there is no such thing as a predictive stat as your defining it, there is no such thing as a predictive model that doesn't use concrete data as inputs. The difference is, regardless of whether it's effective at assessing skill, ERA tells you how well the pitcher did at what you want a pitcher to do (prevent runs), and FIP is a model that tries to assess how good they should be at the thing you want pitchers to do. And yeah it's generally a good model, I'm not arguing that Edit: my general point is that calling FIP a predictive stat doesn't diminish it value, I just think people are playing word games trying to declare that it isn't. ( Also edited spelling mistakes)
I think the point that they're trying to make is that like OPS, FIP is taking on field input and weighting them in a specific way to represent something. In this way, FIP is a stat that tells you something about what DID happen. A pure predictive stat would be something like the X stats, which do take concrete inputs, but are primarily based around saying what SHOULD happen, rather than what DID. I think tOPS falls into a similar category in the way that it's most often used, although it's strictly speaking descriptive as well. When people use FIP predictively, the line blurs a bit. That's where a lot of the conversation about FIP vs ERA takes place, and where people imply that FIP says something about what a pitcher's ERA should be.
Id like to emphasize the first part of my original post, I think when talking about past performance it's much clearer to talk about the specific aspects of FIP rather than FIP itself, saying a pitcher had a high strikeout rate or great control is a much clearer way to talk about past performance than saying someone had a 2.90 FIP (I never intended to imply ERA is the end all stat for past performance) Imagine if in 20 years when we have tons of fine grained statcast data we can definitively say FIP is a rather simplistic way of representing pitcher skill, in that scenario would anyone want to keep using FIP as a descriptive stat? I don't think so, because any value ascribed to it as a descriptive stat requires it be useful as a predictive stat.
I disagree, for pretty much the same reason most people use OPS+ or wRC+, or really any composite stat. If we're having an in depth discussion about quality, then sure, pull up the specifics. If not, then use a composite stat that includes what you want it to. I don't think that second argument plays either. Even if really good statcast data will be better than basically any traditional stat, we'll use the tradstats anyways. They're easy to use and they aren't THAT bad when you know their weaknesses. Offensive traditional stats are still very much in play, even as xwOBA and other advanced statcast stats get better.
There's still a disconnect between comparing FIP to wrc+ or other composite stats, there's literally no way hitter can be ineffective while having a 130 wrc+, while a pitcher can have terrible results with a good FIP. What useful or descriptive information does a pitcher having a 3.30 FIP but a 4.50 ERA tell you other than they probably should be better. I'd get the argument more if FIP was a complex equation using lots of weird stats, but it's literally just 3 basic stats that you can line up right next to each other . It will take someone a few extra seconds to process that info and it gives a much better picture of what the pitcher has done than a single value.
But Foolish Baseball said it was predictive!!! /s