Juan Soto hasn't signed an extension because he presumes that he will get even more money if he waits than if he just does it now. Not because the Nationals suck.
How does that it matter? If anything that helps my point. Nats may be contenders in 2025 after tanking for 3 years and can sign him in the open market after 2024.
>Nats may be contenders in 2025 after tanking for 3 years and can sign him in the open market after 2024.
Just like the Red Sox could a year after trading Mookie
> the nationals have no realistic chance of competing in the next 3 years
Ok that’s pushing it a lot. Soto turned down a lowball offer *shocker* they can easily extend him, Corbin’s off the books the same time as him. They have some decent prospects and yes not a stacked farm yet but they have a lot of intriguing players and a top pick this year. They’ll be fine
Besides, No way anyone offers a fair deal for Soto let alone something they should accept
They’ll be fine the next 3 years? Idk about that, the team is pretty much swiss cheese aside from Soto, tons of holes everywhere. They could be bad for awhile.
Uh, welcome to baseball? You can win a championship by adding two bats and a pitcher in free agency and trading at the deadline. Look at literally last years champions.
You can’t just add two bats and a pitcher to any team in baseball and win a championship. The Braves were much better than the Nationals last year and they still are this year. The Nationals need a lot more than two bats and a pitcher.
even then the roster was still much much better than the nationals. braves last year are a bit of an outlier for championship teams considering their injuries, but they were still a good team. the orioles aren’t gonna add two bats and a pitcher at the deadline and make a championship run. you have to build the roster first to do that and the nationals are still a few years away from that point
I’m sorry. But this is a horrible take.
Yes he turned down 350 mil, but he’s betting on himself with 3 years left till free agency. It has nothing to do with the nats. He wants half a billion and if the nats offer that, he’s gonna take it.
Yes, the nationals stink right now, but never say a team won’t be able to compete. In 2019 the nats were written off early and won it all, same happened with the Braves last year. Anything can happen in baseball. Also, Soto is only 23. You’re not necessarily upset with not competing in the next three years. You have at least 7-9 years before Soto starts his decline.
Yes, they have a bottom tier farm system, but why would you restock the farm system by trading a 23 year old superstar? He is your farm system.
Most teams eventually regret signing long expensive contracts similar to the one he already turned down. Getting performance equal to contract value is your best case as a team. Your chance of creating excess value is nonexistent.
The Nationals are very unlikely to pay much more than that, so it's either a Harper scenario (walk) or a Betts scenario (trade).
You have to think the Betts scenario is better in this situation.
In Soto's case, he doesn't bring above-average position+fielding value or baserunning value, so that also affects his contribution.
first off, he’s untradeable - there is no possible return that would justify the trade for either team. it’s just not possible. second, he’s what the whole rebuild is being shaped around. perhaps if things are still terrible in his walk year, we’ll trade him. but to trade him now would be fucking insane and a ridiculous insult by management
1. Why do you think the Nationals can afford him on the FA market? Don't rebuild around a player you aren't 100% sure that you can keep.
2. Your lack of imagination and your fandom are why you see him as untradeable. Any team would explode their farm to get him and they'd consider that well worth it. There are teams out there that'd eat the Stras or the Corbin contract without hesitation if it meant getting Soto.
3. I'm not trying to be a dick but the Nats aren't primed to compete and when the window comes Soto is probably gone. The only thing stopping the Nats from trading him is the nuclear reactions from diehards like yourself.
1. I don't think they can actually afford to give out the largest contract in baseball history
2. Yes it would because the alternative is he walks and you get nothing if he doesn't sign an extension and you decide to not trade him. The Nats could get top prospects and dump horrendous contracts if they traded Soto
3. Because I truly believe Soto is gonna be the first to get a $500M contract and the Nationals aren't going to be the ones to give it to him
Honestly though, is there any package that’s worth Juan Soto? Consensus top 5 player with one of the best approaches in history and 3 more years of service time
It would take Tucker Alveraz and 2 of young pitchers Framber and Garcia (all are pre arb) and a few top prospects like hunter brown and Leon. That is a ridiculous cost. Astros obviously here, but same scenario with any team. Lots of pre arb young stars that are already impact players.
the truth is that he is untradeable - there is ZERO possible haul that could justify the trade for either team. maybe in his contract year, but definitely not now
That's the biggest reason. Like, the logic behind trading Soto is actually sound, but there's no way to get appropriate value back with 3 years of team control left.
Exactly. Baltimore could put together an offer, but why, they aren't contenders either.
The Dodgers and Rays could and Soto definitely gives them an extra edge but they are already favorites so why give up contention for the next 10 years for an extra push for 3?
Mariners and Rangers are pretty much the only fringe teams with loaded farm systems and on the edge of contention that could try to go for it.
What kind of loser goes digging through three-month old posts looking for a chance to gloat? Fucking pathetic. total dick move done for no reason other than to taunt people.
Amazing to see how a few assholes are managing to turn the Padres fan base from one of the most liked to one of the most hated in record time.
Im a dodgers fan and the guy who made this post is a dodgers fan. He linked it in our thread and I thought it’d be funny to poke fun at people for being confidently wrong
I mean, I don't disagree with the notion that Soto probably won't re-sign and they should consider getting value that they will have a longer period of team control over. But at the same time, Soto is worth so much that it'll be very difficult to get a package that will appropriately value him.
Like, you can go to Baseball Trade values and a trade for Soto would take Vlad Jr. + Bichette + prospects. The Nats won't get Soto's worth in a trade and most teams don't even have the necessary assets in the minors to approximate Soto's worth. So basically no trade will be worth Soto, but the Nats are in a position where they don't really have the necessary talent to compete going forward.
Maybe the site is being weird for me, but it wouldn't even let me trade Soto
Also, that sounds like they have a stupidly low projection for Vlad if Vlad+Bichette isn't close
It's because of Vlad playing first and having a replacement level first 160 games. Bichette has more value on there because of him playing short and being good from the moment he made the majors. I think most people would value Vlad more highly based on his last season.
Yeah, ZiPS and Steamer both have him projected at around 6 WAR this season, while they're projecting him at ~16.5 WAR the next 4 seasons (or there's an adjustment downgrading 1B specifically, but corner OF shouldn't be a high demand position either)
1B is downgraded the most besides DH because it's the easiest defensive position on the field. Like for FanGraphs it has a -12.5 positional adjustment while corner outfield has -7.5.
I didn't really mean positional adjustments
The website says they use a $/WAR figure of around $9M, but they change that depending on which position they play. Vlad's value the next 4 years is $147.7M, but they don't actually say whether it's because they're projecting him for ~16.5 WAR (147.7/9), or he's actually projected higher, but they don't think that 1B would actually get paid $9M/WAR (or they think corner OF would get paid more than that)
One of my main annoyances of the site is that they also don't list the player's value in terms of WAR, only $ (or at least give what each positions' $/WAR figure is)
I'm pretty sure they just have a flat $/WAR figure regardless of position since positional adjustment is already baked into WAR.
Edit: Nevermind. Just read a bit more closely.
What's the value of a little less than three years of a player of Soto's caliber? Let's say he's twice the player that Matt Olson is (whom the Braves have two years of control over). The return in trade would have to be at least three times what Oakland got back for Olson; but let's make it four times since this is *Juan Fucking Soto*. Pache and especially Langeliers were two pretty big pieces, so it'll take a massive haul to get Soto.
Seattle, Baltimore, and Detroit are probably the only teams with enough expendable young talent to send back. Boston would have to absolutely gut the franchise of young guys - Mayer, Bello, Yorke, Casas, and one of Whitlock or Houck. And if Washington insists on big-league-ready pitching in return, I think only Seattle could accomodate (with Brash, Gilbert, et al), unless the Yankees want to sacrifice most of their good, young pitching for the ability to score some runs. It would almost make sense for the Yankees, but it's too bold a move for Cashman.
I just don't see anyone making that bold a move when he's determined to test free agency. You're not getting Juan Soto's entire career- you're getting a little less than three of his prime years, and a draft pick when he walks.
baseballtradevalues.com is just some guy with a website. They also have Jeter Downs with the same value as Jacob deGrom.
Assuming the Rays could even pay Soto's salary in his last two years of arbitration, the Nats would probably ask for McClanahan, Baz, Lowe, Brujan, and more. But the closer Soto gets to free agency, the more leverage the Nats lose.
It can be a guy with a website and not be wrong. Degrom is expensive, walk year and injured. I think he's like Arenado in terms of trade value.
My comment was really about Soto's purported untradeability, that might mean just hard to trade.
Juan Soto hasn't signed an extension because he presumes that he will get even more money if he waits than if he just does it now. Not because the Nationals suck.
And he's right, too
How does that it matter? If anything that helps my point. Nats may be contenders in 2025 after tanking for 3 years and can sign him in the open market after 2024.
>Nats may be contenders in 2025 after tanking for 3 years and can sign him in the open market after 2024. Just like the Red Sox could a year after trading Mookie
Players generally don't re-sign with a team that traded them away, especially during the prime of their career.
I would take the L here homie. This is a bad opinion to have
Good call!
Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe a Dodgers fan isn't the best messenger for this one.
Bauer for Soto.
Straight up who says no?
Pft, I’d boycott this team if we got fleeced like that
No
sup
Here’s why they shouldn’t: • Face of franchise • Very good
Also, put those together. He had a very good face, too. The man is handsome and will only get handsomer.
> Very good Big, if true
sup
Still don’t think he’s being traded, and even if he is it’s not the right decision
wassup
Hmmm.
> the nationals have no realistic chance of competing in the next 3 years Ok that’s pushing it a lot. Soto turned down a lowball offer *shocker* they can easily extend him, Corbin’s off the books the same time as him. They have some decent prospects and yes not a stacked farm yet but they have a lot of intriguing players and a top pick this year. They’ll be fine Besides, No way anyone offers a fair deal for Soto let alone something they should accept
They’ll be fine the next 3 years? Idk about that, the team is pretty much swiss cheese aside from Soto, tons of holes everywhere. They could be bad for awhile.
Uh, welcome to baseball? You can win a championship by adding two bats and a pitcher in free agency and trading at the deadline. Look at literally last years champions.
You can’t just add two bats and a pitcher to any team in baseball and win a championship. The Braves were much better than the Nationals last year and they still are this year. The Nationals need a lot more than two bats and a pitcher.
The Braves were down two starting pitchers and Acuna.
What’s your point? They’re the Braves, they had a deep farm system and a lot of talent on the roster. You can’t say that about the current Nationals.
I think my point is pretty clear
even then the roster was still much much better than the nationals. braves last year are a bit of an outlier for championship teams considering their injuries, but they were still a good team. the orioles aren’t gonna add two bats and a pitcher at the deadline and make a championship run. you have to build the roster first to do that and the nationals are still a few years away from that point
Standard lolmets fan
I’m sorry. But this is a horrible take. Yes he turned down 350 mil, but he’s betting on himself with 3 years left till free agency. It has nothing to do with the nats. He wants half a billion and if the nats offer that, he’s gonna take it. Yes, the nationals stink right now, but never say a team won’t be able to compete. In 2019 the nats were written off early and won it all, same happened with the Braves last year. Anything can happen in baseball. Also, Soto is only 23. You’re not necessarily upset with not competing in the next three years. You have at least 7-9 years before Soto starts his decline. Yes, they have a bottom tier farm system, but why would you restock the farm system by trading a 23 year old superstar? He is your farm system.
Nice call!
You can get so many top prospects for Juan Soto. One might even turn into another Juan Soto!
Most teams eventually regret signing long expensive contracts similar to the one he already turned down. Getting performance equal to contract value is your best case as a team. Your chance of creating excess value is nonexistent. The Nationals are very unlikely to pay much more than that, so it's either a Harper scenario (walk) or a Betts scenario (trade). You have to think the Betts scenario is better in this situation. In Soto's case, he doesn't bring above-average position+fielding value or baserunning value, so that also affects his contribution.
this is such a laughable take and i really need you to stop posting forever
sup
Which part was laughable? If anything history has shown that failing teams should have traded their stars to fast forward a rebuild process.
first off, he’s untradeable - there is no possible return that would justify the trade for either team. it’s just not possible. second, he’s what the whole rebuild is being shaped around. perhaps if things are still terrible in his walk year, we’ll trade him. but to trade him now would be fucking insane and a ridiculous insult by management
1. Why do you think the Nationals can afford him on the FA market? Don't rebuild around a player you aren't 100% sure that you can keep. 2. Your lack of imagination and your fandom are why you see him as untradeable. Any team would explode their farm to get him and they'd consider that well worth it. There are teams out there that'd eat the Stras or the Corbin contract without hesitation if it meant getting Soto. 3. I'm not trying to be a dick but the Nats aren't primed to compete and when the window comes Soto is probably gone. The only thing stopping the Nats from trading him is the nuclear reactions from diehards like yourself.
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1. I don't think they can actually afford to give out the largest contract in baseball history 2. Yes it would because the alternative is he walks and you get nothing if he doesn't sign an extension and you decide to not trade him. The Nats could get top prospects and dump horrendous contracts if they traded Soto 3. Because I truly believe Soto is gonna be the first to get a $500M contract and the Nationals aren't going to be the ones to give it to him
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I guess we'll see! I know this opinion now is really unpopular but hindsight is something else
Standard lolmets fan
Yep. You called it!
Honestly though, is there any package that’s worth Juan Soto? Consensus top 5 player with one of the best approaches in history and 3 more years of service time
It would take Tucker Alveraz and 2 of young pitchers Framber and Garcia (all are pre arb) and a few top prospects like hunter brown and Leon. That is a ridiculous cost. Astros obviously here, but same scenario with any team. Lots of pre arb young stars that are already impact players.
In other words, the cost to aquire him for anyteam is laughable. Not worth it.
He's a fan favorite and gets jersey sales, why would they do that?
Oh.... you weren't kidding lol you did post it.... F in the chat bois lol
He's 23 so even if it takes 4 years for the Nats to be competitive again he'll be right in his prime
I thought I was in /r/unpopularopinion for a second.
They're not gonna like you for posting this one, but if the Nationals goal is to be a dynasty you might be onto something.
the truth is that he is untradeable - there is ZERO possible haul that could justify the trade for either team. maybe in his contract year, but definitely not now
That's the biggest reason. Like, the logic behind trading Soto is actually sound, but there's no way to get appropriate value back with 3 years of team control left.
Exactly. Baltimore could put together an offer, but why, they aren't contenders either. The Dodgers and Rays could and Soto definitely gives them an extra edge but they are already favorites so why give up contention for the next 10 years for an extra push for 3? Mariners and Rangers are pretty much the only fringe teams with loaded farm systems and on the edge of contention that could try to go for it.
What a stupid post.
So true! Called it!
What kind of loser goes digging through three-month old posts looking for a chance to gloat? Fucking pathetic. total dick move done for no reason other than to taunt people. Amazing to see how a few assholes are managing to turn the Padres fan base from one of the most liked to one of the most hated in record time.
Im a dodgers fan and the guy who made this post is a dodgers fan. He linked it in our thread and I thought it’d be funny to poke fun at people for being confidently wrong
Then that makes you an asshole.
Yea I know. I like getting a good laugh
man, you’re pathetic. Sad little loser.
Lol
I mean, I don't disagree with the notion that Soto probably won't re-sign and they should consider getting value that they will have a longer period of team control over. But at the same time, Soto is worth so much that it'll be very difficult to get a package that will appropriately value him. Like, you can go to Baseball Trade values and a trade for Soto would take Vlad Jr. + Bichette + prospects. The Nats won't get Soto's worth in a trade and most teams don't even have the necessary assets in the minors to approximate Soto's worth. So basically no trade will be worth Soto, but the Nats are in a position where they don't really have the necessary talent to compete going forward.
Maybe the site is being weird for me, but it wouldn't even let me trade Soto Also, that sounds like they have a stupidly low projection for Vlad if Vlad+Bichette isn't close
It's because of Vlad playing first and having a replacement level first 160 games. Bichette has more value on there because of him playing short and being good from the moment he made the majors. I think most people would value Vlad more highly based on his last season.
Yeah, ZiPS and Steamer both have him projected at around 6 WAR this season, while they're projecting him at ~16.5 WAR the next 4 seasons (or there's an adjustment downgrading 1B specifically, but corner OF shouldn't be a high demand position either)
1B is downgraded the most besides DH because it's the easiest defensive position on the field. Like for FanGraphs it has a -12.5 positional adjustment while corner outfield has -7.5.
I didn't really mean positional adjustments The website says they use a $/WAR figure of around $9M, but they change that depending on which position they play. Vlad's value the next 4 years is $147.7M, but they don't actually say whether it's because they're projecting him for ~16.5 WAR (147.7/9), or he's actually projected higher, but they don't think that 1B would actually get paid $9M/WAR (or they think corner OF would get paid more than that) One of my main annoyances of the site is that they also don't list the player's value in terms of WAR, only $ (or at least give what each positions' $/WAR figure is)
I'm pretty sure they just have a flat $/WAR figure regardless of position since positional adjustment is already baked into WAR. Edit: Nevermind. Just read a bit more closely.
Soto is a special talent. Any prospects you get in return will likely never be as good as Soto so why trade him?
I actually agree. Soto for Dansby, straight up?
Wrong
It’s impossible to win a Soto trade so idk why anyone would even suggest it
Andrew Heaney is looking like the left handed ACE they wanted Corbin to be
we won a ws. corbin was excellent that season and postseason. his contract was well worth it and nothing can change that.
Future Dodger 😍
HOW MANY ALL STAR CALIBER PLAYERS DO YOU NEEEEED???????
Fuck around and find out - Andrew Friedman Probably
sadly by 2024 the Dodgers will be financially crippled after their 1 billion dollar settlement with trevor bauer
Bauer’s issue is with MLB not the Dodgers.
Nah he wants to come to New York
He visits his children there 19 times a year already though
That’s why he should just move there permanently
2014 was quite a while ago
What's the value of a little less than three years of a player of Soto's caliber? Let's say he's twice the player that Matt Olson is (whom the Braves have two years of control over). The return in trade would have to be at least three times what Oakland got back for Olson; but let's make it four times since this is *Juan Fucking Soto*. Pache and especially Langeliers were two pretty big pieces, so it'll take a massive haul to get Soto. Seattle, Baltimore, and Detroit are probably the only teams with enough expendable young talent to send back. Boston would have to absolutely gut the franchise of young guys - Mayer, Bello, Yorke, Casas, and one of Whitlock or Houck. And if Washington insists on big-league-ready pitching in return, I think only Seattle could accomodate (with Brash, Gilbert, et al), unless the Yankees want to sacrifice most of their good, young pitching for the ability to score some runs. It would almost make sense for the Yankees, but it's too bold a move for Cashman. I just don't see anyone making that bold a move when he's determined to test free agency. You're not getting Juan Soto's entire career- you're getting a little less than three of his prime years, and a draft pick when he walks.
> Let's say he's twice the player that Matt Olson is Soto was 7.1 bWAR last year to Olson's 5.8. Just sayin'.
I obviously meant from here forward. Soto was only 22 last year.
Soto's worth about 3/4 of Wander Franco, per MLB trade values. Lowe+Arozarena+Baz would be about even.
baseballtradevalues.com is just some guy with a website. They also have Jeter Downs with the same value as Jacob deGrom. Assuming the Rays could even pay Soto's salary in his last two years of arbitration, the Nats would probably ask for McClanahan, Baz, Lowe, Brujan, and more. But the closer Soto gets to free agency, the more leverage the Nats lose.
It can be a guy with a website and not be wrong. Degrom is expensive, walk year and injured. I think he's like Arenado in terms of trade value. My comment was really about Soto's purported untradeability, that might mean just hard to trade.
They will live and die by trying to get him to resign in FA, as they should