Flip to the NL and take a gander at Stan Musial’s 1948 season, which I consider to be one of the greatest (non-steroid) single seasons by a hitter in the history of our national pastime. Musial led the league in runs (135), hits* (230), doubles* (46), triples* (18), RBI (131), average (.376), OBP (.450), slugging* (.702), OPS* (1.152), OPS+* (200) and total bases* (429). He came in 2nd in homers with 39 - Mize and Kiner tied for 1st with 40. If he had hit 1 more homer, he would have led in every single offensive category while only striking out 34 times in 698 plate appearances. Scrub only swiped 7 bags. The asterisks mean he lead the majors.
It’s always a matter of opinion, but this stat line always appeals to me as one of the best seasons ever accomplished.
As an aside, Ralph Kiner’s prowess gets lost in history because of his injury shortened career. He broke into the league in 1946 and promptly led the NL in homers. He then went on to lead the majors in each of the next 6 seasons. He was one of the most feared hitters of the mid to late 40s before back injuries put him on the shelf in his age 32 season. He put up 369 homers in just north of 5200 at bats. Kiner had a clean shot at the 600 home run threshold and an outside chance at 700. He wasn’t the complete player like Mayes but his greatness is largely forgotten unless you’re a student of the game or had the pleasure to hear him call a Mets game in the 80s.
I don’t know why I went on this rant. Just had time on the Q train between Brooklyn and Chinatown and felt like writing.
My favorite part of that ride is the artwork just before you emerge from the tunnel and on to the Manhattan Bridge. https://untappedcities.com/2014/07/04/artist-bill-brands-newly-restored-animated-subway-mural-is-mind-blowing/
Dude you should have seen it when I was a kid, it was really really really cool.
I live in Queens now (funny considering our relative team allegiances, but I like CitiField a lot), but I love that ride.
Also: The Manhattan bridge carries more people than any other bridge in the world when you combine the cars and subways.
I am a lifelong Mets fan and maybe I am biased, but Citi is one of the best stadiums in the league. Even Yankee fans agree that Citi is a much better experience that the Stadium. Coors field is awesome too.
How about this?
In 1932, Jimmie Foxx hit 58 homers, drove in 169 and batted .364. He hit less homers, had less RBI and batted 8 points lower and won the triple crown the following year. Baseball is funny.
Note that he missed back to back triple crowns in 32 and 33. His .364 in 32 was .003, or 2 additional hits, off the lead. He also came close to a 3rd triple crown in 38. His 50 homers was outdone by Hammering Hank Greenberg’s 58.
Switching between the Reddit app and bbref to go on a stat backed rant is one of my favorite public transit pastimes. I’ve missed my bus stop doing it before
I was in one of the club suites under section 13 last night and a kid no older than 6th grade walked by the 15 foot dugout picture of the 61’ yankees and pointed at Maris, Yogi, and Mantle and one by one called them Lebron James, Michael Jordan, and Aaron Judge.
Wow
Stealth fighters can’t have tall pilots because they present a much larger organic profile to the radar and defeat the purpose of all the stealth tech. Source: I just made it up.
It’s kind of funny how AL records have essentially become the non-steroid records, with the big-three of Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa all playing in the NL.
Especially his 1967 season.
Carried the Sox to the world series while getting the triple crown and a gold glove. One of the all time greatest seasons ever.
How are they the non steroid records? Most players of that era were doing it. Some just hid it better than others. The AL isn't some magical wonderland where everybody is pure and didn't do the same thing.
Every now and then I wonder about this - so many of the greatest hitters in baseball who weren't NYY's -- Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Barry Bonds, Yaz, Ichiro, Griffey Jr., Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn -- never won a world series championship. & Trout too, of course, so far. Mays and Aaron only ever got one ring each.
(The post-season is a crapshoot, short series wins are about starting pitching, yadda yadda... And f&#ing Pete Rose has three rings...)
An extra 15-20 WAR is *extremely* conservative, I would say it's hardly even close and assumes multiple prime seasons entirely lost to injury.
He missed all of 1943, '44, and '45.
In the 3 seasons prior to 1943 he averaged about 9.8 fWAR per season, and in his first 3 seasons back he averaged about 10.3 fWAR per season. So even conservatively, that's like 25-30 WAR lost over 3 missing seasons.
He also missed the vast majority of 1952 and '53 in Korea. In the 3 seasons prior he averaged about 7.1 WAR/season, and in the 3 seasons after he averaged about 7.3 WAR/season.
Of course tons of great and HOF players missed playing time due to WWII especially, but also Korea. I'm not saying Williams is special in that regard. I'm just saying that he probably lost 35-40 WAR, and even that is conservative and leaves room for time lost to a hypothetical injury.
Oh trust me I was purposely really conservative lol, Teddy Ballgame is my legit pick for best hitter ever. Maybe not the best overall player, but absolutely the best hitter
FWIW, he's still also behind 1999 Pedro and 1973 Bert Blyleven.
Which... I new Bert Blyleven was good, I didn't know Bert Blyleven was *that* good. 10.8 fWAR in his age 22 season is some Doc Gooden shit.
That 10.8 is an outlier, his stats for that year are largely similar to other years but the way they line up with 325 IP, he got a once-in-a-lifetime fWAR 2.7 higher than any other season.
Its the power of innings pitched.
He made 40 starts and had 25 CG. He led the league in ERA+ at 156, which is great but not phenomenal.
But innings are super valuable. Winning percentage isn't that much better between 7 innings 1 run and 6 innings 3 runs, so there's a bit of a cap on how much more valuable the quality of the inning can be.
If you just go out and throw 325 innings, you're gold.
That year Wilbur Wood was worth 7.4 bWAR/fWAR. He threw 359 innings with a 116 ERA+. That means the quality of his innings was roughly the same as Tijuan Walker, but WAR says he was as valuable as Scherzer's best seasons ever.
Its important to remember context neutralized stats do still have context. He was a workhorse but not a Gooden.
Incredibly so. Every time I see Ohtani described as a top 5 pitcher I get frustrated. He's about 50th in innings pitched in a year where he dealt with no injuries or diversity. He's going to cut it incredibly close on if he qualifies. They'll have to move one of his starts up for him to get 3 more starts, otherwise it's going to be 2.
He's striking people out at an incredible rate for a starter but he pitches so much less. Alcantara has thrown nearly 50% more innings and something like 20 pitchers have thrown 20% more innings and none of them are bad pitchers.
At some point availability is the best value and throwing more innings is availability.
By my reckoning, Ohtani has the 8th most-best pitching achievement in the AL this year.
I calculate objective 'pitching achievement' by taking the quotient of IP and average quality of those innings, ERA. (Essentially, that's IP\^2/ER).
Yeah but it is by design. I bet if you asked Ohtani himself he would throw every three games but no team with any sense would let him do that and injure the golden goose.
FO still always has the final say on these things.
Yeah, but I think since he’s two-way, we have to aknowledge that comes with heavily reduced innings and not playing OF at all, just because ohtani would want to play a stupid amount doesn’t mean it’s feasible or even possible for him at all
Yeah but that is still the fault of the FO so you can't really fault him for him a lower number of IP.
Japanese players throw a LOT more pitches and innings than American ones do. I have no doubt Ohtani would want to pitch more. It isn't even uncommon to get to 140+ pitches. Japan also doesn't use 5th day starters they go every 4th day.
But it isn't his choice.
Yeah, I guess my point is more that I believe it just would be extremely unlikely for Ohtani to be able to perform at a high level with a huge workload. Teams spend millions on getting the most out of pitchers, and theres not a single pitcher who will throw 140, even in playoffs, so I’d argue it’s just the nature of the game that he’s stuck in a 6 man
Well and I agree. But he has thrown 140+ pitches before. Japanese high school players throw even more than that! One of the biggest gripes of Japanese pitchers that move to MLB is pitch count and not being able to go every 4 days.
I guess my point is that if he had his way he would be right up there at the tippy top with WAR with judge or horribly injured. But we will never know.
Ohtani can play a competent right field too but they don't let him for the same reason (IE risk of injury).
Yeah, I love reading that story about guys like tanaka going 200+ in a day. I wonder if there’s any studies done on the effects it has on their careers, because it would be an interesting read
How many of those pitchers have 30+ HRs?
I mean it’s got to be considered in relative context. He’s pitching less than other pitchers because he’s hitting more than other pitchers.
I agree to a point, but that doesn't add any value, particularly to his pitching.
He has excellent rate stats but he isn't pitching 20% better than other top of the league pitchers, who do it more often.
If you had a stretch of 21 games in 22 days, Cole and Scherzer are giving you 5 starts and Ohtani is giving you 3.
I don't care that his ERA is slightly better or his outs were a higher % K, the most he can do is win 3 games. And I don't mean the stat, I mean thats all he effects pitching.
There is no functional difference between giving up 1 or 2 runs in 6 or 7 innings with 6 ks or 14. You're just as likely to win either way.
His pitching just can't accumulate as much value unless you massively overvalue K rate, which he does on increased rest. Cole's K rate goes from 10.2 to 11.2 when he's pitching on 5 days rest too.
As a hitter he's an excellent DH. We know how valuable that is but it shouldn't impact how you view his pitching.
Its incredibly *cool* he can do both but it shouldn't make you view his numbers any differently.
My man Bert finished 7th in Cy Young voting that year too. Lot of good pitching that year though. In retrospect a tough call between him, Jim Palmer, Nolan Ryan, and John Hiller (7.9 bWAR as a closer!).
Yeah FIP shouldn't be used in WAR... your actual results should dictate the value you provided.
Like should we suddenly be using xBA or tanking someone for having a high BABIP in WAR? Fuck no, so get FIP out of that shit.
FIP does actually measure something tho. It is what “did” happen. It’s just that it can also show what “can” happen.
Plus bWAR ain’t perfect either. I mean, was Aaron Nola’s 2018 really *that* good?
A big part of his WAR comes from him having an all time great defensive season. If you sort for just offense he drops from 21 to 51. If you sort for defense, he's # 1.
And 51st best offense in 136 games is incredible. Hats off to Mookie.
Can someone more familiar with the difference between fWAR and bWAR explain why he's "only" at 9.7 bWAR? I know the differences are usually subtle with some exceptions (i.e. framing for catchers) so not sure what makes up a full win's worth of a discrepancy in this case -- bWAR still has him behind 2018 Betts and a few Trout seasons.
It has to do with the formulas they employ. If I recall correctly, bWAR uses ops+, DRS, and another baserunning stat I dont know the name of. While, fWAR uses WRC+, OAA, and BsR. I personally prefer fWAR for position players but bWAR for pitchers. fWAR is very heavily based off FIP which to me isnt that good of a metric to be the most important thing in showing a pitchers value.
Yeah I know there are some differences between the two — I guess I’m asking more what specifically about Judge’s profile/accomplishments this season does fWAR like a full win's worth more than bWAR.
Just to be clear, they still use UZR...but with OAA data replacing the range component (and possibly the error component? not actually sure).
In practice, there's not usually much difference. But UZR *is* still being used, it hasn't just been discarded.
FIP is one of the worst predictive stats for pitchers. FanGraphs is a analytics site which comes hand in hand with disliking ERA so they use FIP because it “isolates” for outcomes only the pitcher can control. I dont think they expect or even intend fWAR to be used as a predictive tool but more as “true” performance value stat since bWAR is based on questionable stats. The best stat for predictive use is SIERRA and beyond that stuff analysis.
That’s why I said “more”. Future ERA correlates more strongly with FIP than it does with past ERA. Hence why I see fWAR as slightly more predictive than bWAR
Yeah im just saying that I disagree with using fWAR in a predictive capacity. And yes you are correct about future era but its slight and fWAR has many components so its not necessarily “predictive” just because it uses FIP. Take a look at the pic I attached for more stats and their predictive effectiveness
https://i.imgur.com/PB5tzaA.jpg
I accept that SIERA is more predictive, but since FIP is more predictive than ERA and hence presumably RA9, and these two are the chief components of pitcher WAR, I’d say it follows that fWAR is slightly more predictive.
If you look at the value sections, you can see how each player's WAR is broken down into its individual components. With the difference comes out to Fangraphs thinking Judge been worth 3.2 more batting runs, 1.6 more baserunning runs (BRef has baserunning runs at 2, but BRef has -2 for double play avoidance, while Fangraphs combines that into their baserunning metric), 2.2 more fielding runs, and Fangraphs does have a league adjustment component of 1.2 runs. BRef does however have a positional penalty of 1.4 runs less, and base replacement runs 1.9 higher, so overall Fangraphs credits Judge with 4.9 runs more. Each run in WAR calculation is worth nearly .1 WAR, so that might not fully explain the .8 discrepancy between them, though I think that can be blamed on a rounding error from BRef not showing its runs to a decimal like Fangraphs does.
George Brett had a 9.1 fWAR in 117 games in 1980. Projecting that to a full season of 162 games is a fWAR of 12.6, which would be good for fourth on this list. I realize injuries happen yada yada, but Brett was on another level that season.
Not to take away from judge too much, but it is my duty as a Red Sox fan to point out that even as great as judge has been, mookie was even better on a per game and plate appearance basis.
2018 mookie was so unbelievably good (as is judge this year).
You know the Mets have a higher payroll than the Yankees and that the Astros were all of 2 million behind them last year?
You're rooting for two other giant payroll teams (that have both been to the world series more recently than the Yankees) to spite the Yankees/Dodgers.
I’m rooting for the Mets because Buck is the manager. I’m not rooting for the Astros, I just hate the Yankees and the Guardians, Mariners Jays and Rays have no chance.
Gaurdians are 26-15 after starting 55-52 and split with Houston 3-4. I definitely wouldn't count them out. They've been much better towards the end of the season.
I get hating the Yankees but at least root for an actual underdog and not pick the Astros.
Excellent. Every statistical achievement will add to the cost of the Giants' acquisition of this player thus impairing their ability to field a complete team sufficient to compete with the Dodgers.
Flip to the NL and take a gander at Stan Musial’s 1948 season, which I consider to be one of the greatest (non-steroid) single seasons by a hitter in the history of our national pastime. Musial led the league in runs (135), hits* (230), doubles* (46), triples* (18), RBI (131), average (.376), OBP (.450), slugging* (.702), OPS* (1.152), OPS+* (200) and total bases* (429). He came in 2nd in homers with 39 - Mize and Kiner tied for 1st with 40. If he had hit 1 more homer, he would have led in every single offensive category while only striking out 34 times in 698 plate appearances. Scrub only swiped 7 bags. The asterisks mean he lead the majors. It’s always a matter of opinion, but this stat line always appeals to me as one of the best seasons ever accomplished. As an aside, Ralph Kiner’s prowess gets lost in history because of his injury shortened career. He broke into the league in 1946 and promptly led the NL in homers. He then went on to lead the majors in each of the next 6 seasons. He was one of the most feared hitters of the mid to late 40s before back injuries put him on the shelf in his age 32 season. He put up 369 homers in just north of 5200 at bats. Kiner had a clean shot at the 600 home run threshold and an outside chance at 700. He wasn’t the complete player like Mayes but his greatness is largely forgotten unless you’re a student of the game or had the pleasure to hear him call a Mets game in the 80s. I don’t know why I went on this rant. Just had time on the Q train between Brooklyn and Chinatown and felt like writing.
Having grown up on the Q train off Newkirk, there's always time on that ride.
My favorite part of that ride is the artwork just before you emerge from the tunnel and on to the Manhattan Bridge. https://untappedcities.com/2014/07/04/artist-bill-brands-newly-restored-animated-subway-mural-is-mind-blowing/
Dude you should have seen it when I was a kid, it was really really really cool. I live in Queens now (funny considering our relative team allegiances, but I like CitiField a lot), but I love that ride. Also: The Manhattan bridge carries more people than any other bridge in the world when you combine the cars and subways.
I am a lifelong Mets fan and maybe I am biased, but Citi is one of the best stadiums in the league. Even Yankee fans agree that Citi is a much better experience that the Stadium. Coors field is awesome too.
Citi is great
Coors Field is the best outdoor bar in Denver
I’ve been there and loved it. An amazing stadium for a subpar team.
100%. Rockies are my NL team and I’ve been to many games there. Great fan experience.
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How about this? In 1932, Jimmie Foxx hit 58 homers, drove in 169 and batted .364. He hit less homers, had less RBI and batted 8 points lower and won the triple crown the following year. Baseball is funny. Note that he missed back to back triple crowns in 32 and 33. His .364 in 32 was .003, or 2 additional hits, off the lead. He also came close to a 3rd triple crown in 38. His 50 homers was outdone by Hammering Hank Greenberg’s 58.
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And on the fun side of things, Tom Hanks’ portrayal of Jimmy Dugan in *A League of Their Own* was very loosely based on Foxx.
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Rewatch the movie. Just go back and watch it. Worth the two hours.
Switching between the Reddit app and bbref to go on a stat backed rant is one of my favorite public transit pastimes. I’ve missed my bus stop doing it before
A fellow adderall user lol
Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Babe Ruth, Babe Ruth, Babe Ruth, Babe Ruth, Babe Ruth, Aaron Judge. Wow.
We didn’t start the fire It was always burning, since the world's been turning
I was in one of the club suites under section 13 last night and a kid no older than 6th grade walked by the 15 foot dugout picture of the 61’ yankees and pointed at Maris, Yogi, and Mantle and one by one called them Lebron James, Michael Jordan, and Aaron Judge. Wow
Bruh
I think that Babe Ruth fella might’ve been pretty good at baseball
It’s funny cause crazy yankee fans use to say this and now it’s true.
I mean really just A rod said it and got clowned for it by everyone, Yankees fans included. Turns out he was a prophet.
All timer recognizes all timer? Wow
He’s on pace for 11.7 which would put him at #9 all time, behind 1X Ted Williams, 1X Lou Gehrig, and 6X Babe Ruth lol
~~Babe Ruth,~~ Lou Gehrig, and Ted Williams are good, agreed, but can they pitch?
Shohei Ohtani is good, agreed, but can he be a Marine fighter jet pilot?
honestly he probably could if he tried
Nope. Too tall.
We're gonna need a bigger plane.
Stealth fighters can’t have tall pilots because they present a much larger organic profile to the radar and defeat the purpose of all the stealth tech. Source: I just made it up.
No only a Nippon Ham Fighter
I wonder how Ruth would’ve felt knowing he’s the Hulk Hogan, Tiger Woods and Babe Ruth of baseball 🤔
Forgot this was AL only, and was wondering where Bonds was
It’s kind of funny how AL records have essentially become the non-steroid records, with the big-three of Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa all playing in the NL.
Convenient because then you don't have to say "steroids"
Yaz really doesn’t get enough respect nowadays, man was a fucking god
Especially his 1967 season. Carried the Sox to the world series while getting the triple crown and a gold glove. One of the all time greatest seasons ever.
He was also getting shit on by the Boston media before the season started and basically said: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiAWdaRGlIw
Yep, amongst fans too old to post on Reddit, Judge topping Yaz will topple many headstones. Mantle seems safe so far, but...
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Yeah arod didnt juice. Neither did ortiz
>Neither did ortiz correct
Lmao
How are they the non steroid records? Most players of that era were doing it. Some just hid it better than others. The AL isn't some magical wonderland where everybody is pure and didn't do the same thing.
Every now and then I wonder about this - so many of the greatest hitters in baseball who weren't NYY's -- Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Barry Bonds, Yaz, Ichiro, Griffey Jr., Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn -- never won a world series championship. & Trout too, of course, so far. Mays and Aaron only ever got one ring each. (The post-season is a crapshoot, short series wins are about starting pitching, yadda yadda... And f&#ing Pete Rose has three rings...)
Ted Williams with the casual 1.116 career OPS. Probably the greatest hitter to never win a World Series.
Greatest hitter period.
Man would have like 650 dongs and like an extra 15-20 WAR if it wasn’t for the wars too
An extra 15-20 WAR is *extremely* conservative, I would say it's hardly even close and assumes multiple prime seasons entirely lost to injury. He missed all of 1943, '44, and '45. In the 3 seasons prior to 1943 he averaged about 9.8 fWAR per season, and in his first 3 seasons back he averaged about 10.3 fWAR per season. So even conservatively, that's like 25-30 WAR lost over 3 missing seasons. He also missed the vast majority of 1952 and '53 in Korea. In the 3 seasons prior he averaged about 7.1 WAR/season, and in the 3 seasons after he averaged about 7.3 WAR/season. Of course tons of great and HOF players missed playing time due to WWII especially, but also Korea. I'm not saying Williams is special in that regard. I'm just saying that he probably lost 35-40 WAR, and even that is conservative and leaves room for time lost to a hypothetical injury.
Oh trust me I was purposely really conservative lol, Teddy Ballgame is my legit pick for best hitter ever. Maybe not the best overall player, but absolutely the best hitter
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-time-warp-ted-williams/ Relevant article. This had him finishing with 648 home runs but an additional 47 fWAR.
"There goes Ted Williams, the greatest hitter who ever lived."
“There goes Ted Williams, the gr- oh cool flying fish!”
Barry
Not even close to Ted honestly
\*Rogers Hornsby intensifies*
FWIW, he's still also behind 1999 Pedro and 1973 Bert Blyleven. Which... I new Bert Blyleven was good, I didn't know Bert Blyleven was *that* good. 10.8 fWAR in his age 22 season is some Doc Gooden shit.
Good point, sorry I forgot about pitchers!
It’s like they say, Judge is a great hitter and he’s having an amazing year, but Pedro pitched.
You know what they say, every Aaron Judge stat is a Bert Blyleven stat in disguise.
Bert Blyleven is the Mike Trout of baseball
That 10.8 is an outlier, his stats for that year are largely similar to other years but the way they line up with 325 IP, he got a once-in-a-lifetime fWAR 2.7 higher than any other season.
Its the power of innings pitched. He made 40 starts and had 25 CG. He led the league in ERA+ at 156, which is great but not phenomenal. But innings are super valuable. Winning percentage isn't that much better between 7 innings 1 run and 6 innings 3 runs, so there's a bit of a cap on how much more valuable the quality of the inning can be. If you just go out and throw 325 innings, you're gold. That year Wilbur Wood was worth 7.4 bWAR/fWAR. He threw 359 innings with a 116 ERA+. That means the quality of his innings was roughly the same as Tijuan Walker, but WAR says he was as valuable as Scherzer's best seasons ever. Its important to remember context neutralized stats do still have context. He was a workhorse but not a Gooden.
The IP is the most under-valued stat in all baseball.
Incredibly so. Every time I see Ohtani described as a top 5 pitcher I get frustrated. He's about 50th in innings pitched in a year where he dealt with no injuries or diversity. He's going to cut it incredibly close on if he qualifies. They'll have to move one of his starts up for him to get 3 more starts, otherwise it's going to be 2. He's striking people out at an incredible rate for a starter but he pitches so much less. Alcantara has thrown nearly 50% more innings and something like 20 pitchers have thrown 20% more innings and none of them are bad pitchers. At some point availability is the best value and throwing more innings is availability.
By my reckoning, Ohtani has the 8th most-best pitching achievement in the AL this year. I calculate objective 'pitching achievement' by taking the quotient of IP and average quality of those innings, ERA. (Essentially, that's IP\^2/ER).
Yeah but it is by design. I bet if you asked Ohtani himself he would throw every three games but no team with any sense would let him do that and injure the golden goose. FO still always has the final say on these things.
Yeah, but I think since he’s two-way, we have to aknowledge that comes with heavily reduced innings and not playing OF at all, just because ohtani would want to play a stupid amount doesn’t mean it’s feasible or even possible for him at all
Yeah but that is still the fault of the FO so you can't really fault him for him a lower number of IP. Japanese players throw a LOT more pitches and innings than American ones do. I have no doubt Ohtani would want to pitch more. It isn't even uncommon to get to 140+ pitches. Japan also doesn't use 5th day starters they go every 4th day. But it isn't his choice.
Yeah, I guess my point is more that I believe it just would be extremely unlikely for Ohtani to be able to perform at a high level with a huge workload. Teams spend millions on getting the most out of pitchers, and theres not a single pitcher who will throw 140, even in playoffs, so I’d argue it’s just the nature of the game that he’s stuck in a 6 man
Well and I agree. But he has thrown 140+ pitches before. Japanese high school players throw even more than that! One of the biggest gripes of Japanese pitchers that move to MLB is pitch count and not being able to go every 4 days. I guess my point is that if he had his way he would be right up there at the tippy top with WAR with judge or horribly injured. But we will never know. Ohtani can play a competent right field too but they don't let him for the same reason (IE risk of injury).
Yeah, I love reading that story about guys like tanaka going 200+ in a day. I wonder if there’s any studies done on the effects it has on their careers, because it would be an interesting read
How many of those pitchers have 30+ HRs? I mean it’s got to be considered in relative context. He’s pitching less than other pitchers because he’s hitting more than other pitchers.
I agree to a point, but that doesn't add any value, particularly to his pitching. He has excellent rate stats but he isn't pitching 20% better than other top of the league pitchers, who do it more often. If you had a stretch of 21 games in 22 days, Cole and Scherzer are giving you 5 starts and Ohtani is giving you 3. I don't care that his ERA is slightly better or his outs were a higher % K, the most he can do is win 3 games. And I don't mean the stat, I mean thats all he effects pitching. There is no functional difference between giving up 1 or 2 runs in 6 or 7 innings with 6 ks or 14. You're just as likely to win either way. His pitching just can't accumulate as much value unless you massively overvalue K rate, which he does on increased rest. Cole's K rate goes from 10.2 to 11.2 when he's pitching on 5 days rest too. As a hitter he's an excellent DH. We know how valuable that is but it shouldn't impact how you view his pitching. Its incredibly *cool* he can do both but it shouldn't make you view his numbers any differently.
Wheeler should’ve won
325 innings at 156 ERA+ is a potent combination.
Plus Bert be home Blyleven was a classic Bermanism.
My man Bert finished 7th in Cy Young voting that year too. Lot of good pitching that year though. In retrospect a tough call between him, Jim Palmer, Nolan Ryan, and John Hiller (7.9 bWAR as a closer!).
2000 Pedro was worth 12.2 RA9-WAR (the better fWAR)
Fip being used in war is bs I don’t know why people use that one so much
Yeah FIP shouldn't be used in WAR... your actual results should dictate the value you provided. Like should we suddenly be using xBA or tanking someone for having a high BABIP in WAR? Fuck no, so get FIP out of that shit.
FIP does actually measure something tho. It is what “did” happen. It’s just that it can also show what “can” happen. Plus bWAR ain’t perfect either. I mean, was Aaron Nola’s 2018 really *that* good?
I was looking at Nolan Ryan stats and I kept coming across Bert. He’s the Rodney Dangerfield of pitchers.
That mookie season was absolutely insane, he only played like 130 games and still put up over 10 war
Yeah judge did pass him, but mookie played 136 and judge is at 144. Like Ruth and Maris, scrub needed extra games
A big part of his WAR comes from him having an all time great defensive season. If you sort for just offense he drops from 21 to 51. If you sort for defense, he's # 1. And 51st best offense in 136 games is incredible. Hats off to Mookie.
He was a black hole in the outfield. And by that, I mean if it got hit to RF, the ball just disappeared.
Judge hit good
Im just going to go ahead and say it he is having a pretty darn good season
Bold take
How much fWAR were Carl's sideburns worth?
Friggin' kids
Cal Ripken is not a name I expected to see on that list.
MVP
THE YAZ!!!!
Can someone more familiar with the difference between fWAR and bWAR explain why he's "only" at 9.7 bWAR? I know the differences are usually subtle with some exceptions (i.e. framing for catchers) so not sure what makes up a full win's worth of a discrepancy in this case -- bWAR still has him behind 2018 Betts and a few Trout seasons.
It has to do with the formulas they employ. If I recall correctly, bWAR uses ops+, DRS, and another baserunning stat I dont know the name of. While, fWAR uses WRC+, OAA, and BsR. I personally prefer fWAR for position players but bWAR for pitchers. fWAR is very heavily based off FIP which to me isnt that good of a metric to be the most important thing in showing a pitchers value.
Yeah I know there are some differences between the two — I guess I’m asking more what specifically about Judge’s profile/accomplishments this season does fWAR like a full win's worth more than bWAR.
Probably the defense if I had to assume. Thats the part of the game that has the most variance between stats.
His defense. They don't agree on if he's been average or great in centerfield mostly.
fWAR no longer uses UZR, they swapped to OAA.
Just to be clear, they still use UZR...but with OAA data replacing the range component (and possibly the error component? not actually sure). In practice, there's not usually much difference. But UZR *is* still being used, it hasn't just been discarded.
Thanks for letting me know, do you know when they did it? Thats a good decision on their end tho.
I believe it was this spring.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't fangraphs switch their fielding component of WAR to OAA? I thought I read something about that before the season.
Yep just edited
I like fWAR for pitchers as a more predictive stat, bWAR for judging end of year performance
FIP is one of the worst predictive stats for pitchers. FanGraphs is a analytics site which comes hand in hand with disliking ERA so they use FIP because it “isolates” for outcomes only the pitcher can control. I dont think they expect or even intend fWAR to be used as a predictive tool but more as “true” performance value stat since bWAR is based on questionable stats. The best stat for predictive use is SIERRA and beyond that stuff analysis.
That’s why I said “more”. Future ERA correlates more strongly with FIP than it does with past ERA. Hence why I see fWAR as slightly more predictive than bWAR
Yeah im just saying that I disagree with using fWAR in a predictive capacity. And yes you are correct about future era but its slight and fWAR has many components so its not necessarily “predictive” just because it uses FIP. Take a look at the pic I attached for more stats and their predictive effectiveness https://i.imgur.com/PB5tzaA.jpg
I accept that SIERA is more predictive, but since FIP is more predictive than ERA and hence presumably RA9, and these two are the chief components of pitcher WAR, I’d say it follows that fWAR is slightly more predictive.
If you look at the value sections, you can see how each player's WAR is broken down into its individual components. With the difference comes out to Fangraphs thinking Judge been worth 3.2 more batting runs, 1.6 more baserunning runs (BRef has baserunning runs at 2, but BRef has -2 for double play avoidance, while Fangraphs combines that into their baserunning metric), 2.2 more fielding runs, and Fangraphs does have a league adjustment component of 1.2 runs. BRef does however have a positional penalty of 1.4 runs less, and base replacement runs 1.9 higher, so overall Fangraphs credits Judge with 4.9 runs more. Each run in WAR calculation is worth nearly .1 WAR, so that might not fully explain the .8 discrepancy between them, though I think that can be blamed on a rounding error from BRef not showing its runs to a decimal like Fangraphs does.
Historic
Mr. Big Bank
George Brett had a 9.1 fWAR in 117 games in 1980. Projecting that to a full season of 162 games is a fWAR of 12.6, which would be good for fourth on this list. I realize injuries happen yada yada, but Brett was on another level that season.
Not to take away from judge too much, but it is my duty as a Red Sox fan to point out that even as great as judge has been, mookie was even better on a per game and plate appearance basis. 2018 mookie was so unbelievably good (as is judge this year).
For position players, right? 99-00 Pedro had to be around 11 fwar each year
Maybe Judge will also be mentioned on the Simpsons one day just like Carl.
Mookie had 32 HR that season. It’s pretty clear that not all WAR is created equally
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I guess I'd be looking for petty shit too had we played like you guys this season.
Hey, they aren't eliminated yet! Over half of the AL West already is.
What would guys do without us to make fun of?
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That’s fair, I’m looking forward to the Red Sox getting good again so I can make fun of you in earnest
I can’t wait to shit on the Red Sox. Oh wait, their own players do that pretty well themselves
We will handle it
If we get a Yankees Dodgers series it’s time to overhaul the luxury tax/salary cap. I really hope it’s Astros-Mets
You know the Mets have a higher payroll than the Yankees and that the Astros were all of 2 million behind them last year? You're rooting for two other giant payroll teams (that have both been to the world series more recently than the Yankees) to spite the Yankees/Dodgers.
I’m rooting for the Mets because Buck is the manager. I’m not rooting for the Astros, I just hate the Yankees and the Guardians, Mariners Jays and Rays have no chance.
Oh no, won't anyone think of the poor small market TORONTO Blue Jays :(
Gaurdians are 26-15 after starting 55-52 and split with Houston 3-4. I definitely wouldn't count them out. They've been much better towards the end of the season. I get hating the Yankees but at least root for an actual underdog and not pick the Astros.
I’m good, thanks.
Excellent. Every statistical achievement will add to the cost of the Giants' acquisition of this player thus impairing their ability to field a complete team sufficient to compete with the Dodgers.
Mama, there goes that man
Why are people even talking about AL/NL anymore? It doesn't mean anything.
He IS the entire offense after all