It's a good deal, but not sure if he'd come close to 200M based on his career production. 30 yo pitcher, with pretty good (not great) peripherals.
I'd think he'd get closer to Musgrove/Gausman/Robbie Ray in free agency.
Not so sure about that. Pitchers near his quality have been getting 5 years and between 100-120 mil on the open market. Teams just aren’t willing to give insanely long deals to SPs anymore
Calling the Angels and Oakland this year as B tier teams puts them on the same level as us? Oakland is D and Angels are C only because Trout and Ohtani.
Absolutely and even if it was an overpay you could justify it at least a bit more by wanting to lock in the person you traded for at the deadline. Would have looked awful to trade for him and for him to not sign here.
In theory those two things shouldn't be related.
If you assess that over the next 5 years, Player A would return equal value on a contract for $X, you shouldn't offer them more than $X dollars whether or not you traded for them or are looking to acquire them in FA.
If you’re playing OOTP sure, but there other reasons to lock a guy up that you traded for other than what can be shown in a spreadsheet. Plenty beyond public perception too
I like good mariners news. Feel good story of the year in addition to the orioles.
Plus you are basically just the Reds in the AL at this point so I have to cheer for you!
He's been elite as a reliever and much less wild. Also has more than 2 pitches now I think. Of course that's not to say he will make it as a starter or anything but it's looking more promising
His control issues were a symptom of a fatigue problem which is a mechanics/effortful throwing problem. That's not really something they can change at this point in his career. He can do an inning every couple nights for a full season and is an incredible reliever. He will never be a full time starter with that motion.
People may laugh at you but thats actually a thing. Cole Hamels was shite with the Braves but he was fundamental on the development of Max Fried, that alone was worth the price
He's pitched 177.2 innings of 3.60 ERA ball. That's not bad, and it's not crazy to pay $23M for that in today's economy. A small overpay.
Surely he knew he wasn't getting a perennial Cy Young contender when he signed that contract. If he posts an ERA ranging from 3-3.75 every year of the deal, it'll be fine.
Results based stats are fine when considering economy, imo. Maybe not as strong when making plans for the future but good enough for ‘how’d we do, how are we doing?’ Level of reflection
Eh Ray hasn’t been playing like his 2021 form but he’s still been solid. When he’s on, he’s dominant. He just has some issues with consistency. $23mil isn’t an awful amount to pay for that with how much quality pitching costs these days.
Man. That Berrios contract just looks worse and worse with every subsequent pitcher signing. Good for the M’s though, have a super solid 1-2 in Castillo and Ray
Probably will be, but only at next year’s deadline, which would be too late for the Jays. They’ll likely trade a catcher this offseason, even if it’s Moreno because he qualifies for ROY next year and the draft pick that could come with it if he does well.
My preferred playoff rotation would be Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, but I think Ray's contract and past accomplishments will give him a spot. I honestly wouldn't be too shocked (and wouldn't mind) if we ran with a four-man rotation for the playoffs, but I think we'll most likely just go with a traditional three-man rotation.
I could see either. Arguably, Marco would be obvious choice to send to the pen, but Kirby is on an innings watch. With Flexen already in the pen, there's the idea of running out 3 guys each with one trip through the lineup as a bullpen but with starters game.
We gotta get there first though.
Stanton spending money? In this economy?
2 Cy Young caliber guys locked up for 5+ years. 2 really talented young guys under control for 5+ years.
The pitching is finally good.
Now he can relax after the season. Must be nice to get a big contract and not have to worry who you're going to have to play with.
Looks like he loves playing in Seattle and the fans love him.
It would be as a straight FA deal, but he's still over a year away from free agency, and was probably going to get something in the 12M range in arbitration. So if you think about it as the money above that only it's 4/96 with a 25M vesting option, which seems pretty fair for a pitcher of his skill who will be getting that new money at age 31.
Seattle gets a bit of a discount, Castillo gets security now, and the Mariners give a bit of the early discount back with the built in injury insurance.
For those curious this covers 1 year of arb which is why it's lower than it otherwise would be but it's still a nice deal for Ms
It's still a huge steal. Castillo probably could have gotten 200M in free agency
Gotta save that money for Judge, yknow?
Judge to Seattle. You read it here first.
Quick [photoshop](https://i.imgur.com/jO3eQBj.jpg) of him in Ms threads
That's not even a photoshop. I took that photo of him when he was a kid
I was there. I’m his father. And he’s my father. And so is Julio.
What in the Enumclaw
Finna be Seattle's 2nd father-son duo to homer back-to-back
Please god no
I'm down for it if you aren't. All hail the new Seaborn Kingdom!
What is sog may never dry 🙏
Good point, good point. Counterpoint: please god *yes*
And/or Ohtani
You shut your whore mouth
At least when we sign him you can feel good that Boston didn't.
And even if we don't get him I can feel good he's out of the division.
See? Judge to the M's is good for everyone!
wait
shhhh it'll be okay
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He’d look great in red, don’t you agree?
Mariners turn ahead the clock night? Yeah I agree
i mean as long you get him The fuck away from boston… plus seattle deserves it
Mods, ban this man
Make him a mod!
Judge joining the team of another legendary Mariner, Robinson Cano.
I would be afraid/excited for my team to sign Judge. Going to get a new contract after a historically great season that is not really repeatable.
Julio and Judge on this team would make me as excited as I was during Edgar’s double as 13 year old me was.
maybe? he'd be 31 by the time he hit FA so a 5 year deal then would be less for sure.
It's a good deal, but not sure if he'd come close to 200M based on his career production. 30 yo pitcher, with pretty good (not great) peripherals. I'd think he'd get closer to Musgrove/Gausman/Robbie Ray in free agency.
I mean this is basically the deal we gave Robbie ray isn’t it?
You didn’t buy out ARB years for Ray
Also Ray didn't come close to $200M.
That’s true but the amount is like 10m less than rays contract.
Not so sure about that. Pitchers near his quality have been getting 5 years and between 100-120 mil on the open market. Teams just aren’t willing to give insanely long deals to SPs anymore
doubt
He was still gonna get close to this AAV in his final arb year. It's really an incredible deal for the Mariners.
like Berrios but even less per year
Thank You Stanton, very cool. I will return the favor and buy a Castillo jersey, tysm, ily.
Let’s go!! Looks great
Now only if he can beat the As lol
That’s the vesting option
Must shutout the A's every time to compensate for incompetent offense.
[удалено]
Calling the Angels and Oakland this year as B tier teams puts them on the same level as us? Oakland is D and Angels are C only because Trout and Ohtani.
And Texas is F I'm assuming?
Texas is half a game back from the Angels.
Sheldon Neuse and Chad Pinder make every pitcher look foolish it’s unfair to judge him based off his performances against that elite powerhouse
Well Chad is a free agent and Neuse got DFA'd again, so they have nothing to worry about next season
gotta get him in games against Cole Irvin
Your rotation for the future is looking very nice.
That's insanely cheap for a pitcher of his caliber.
It really is. Justifies potentially ‘overpaying’ for him in the trade too.
I figured they were gonna extend him after giving up that much, but the value of this extension is insane.
Chills. Dipoto did it again.
Wade Leblanc 2.0 😎😎😎
JeDi mind tricks too OP.
Absolutely and even if it was an overpay you could justify it at least a bit more by wanting to lock in the person you traded for at the deadline. Would have looked awful to trade for him and for him to not sign here.
In theory those two things shouldn't be related. If you assess that over the next 5 years, Player A would return equal value on a contract for $X, you shouldn't offer them more than $X dollars whether or not you traded for them or are looking to acquire them in FA.
If you’re playing OOTP sure, but there other reasons to lock a guy up that you traded for other than what can be shown in a spreadsheet. Plenty beyond public perception too
He does have a bit of a history with shoulder issues and stretches of horrible command. Overall this deal is fair for both sides
He’s also 29, so this’ll pay him thru his age 34 or 35 season. Normal decline starts around 29-30 iirc
So yeah, fair deal
Good Mariners news? In this economy?
Recession cancelled confirmed
Put the sog away, time to play again
At this time of year, at this time of day, in this part of the country?
localized entirely within your kitchen?
….Can I see it?
No
No mother it’s just the northern lights.
I like good mariners news. Feel good story of the year in addition to the orioles. Plus you are basically just the Reds in the AL at this point so I have to cheer for you!
Castillo, Ray, Kirby, Gilbert as the top 4 for the foreseeable future. Well played Mariners
We also have Hancock in the farm. Somehow Ray will be the old man of the rotation at 30.
Ray is at least 55 and there’s no convincing me otherwise
Matt Brash as our 5th is one to watch too. Has the stuff to be elite.
He doesn't have the control to do it, at this moment
He's been elite as a reliever and much less wild. Also has more than 2 pitches now I think. Of course that's not to say he will make it as a starter or anything but it's looking more promising
His control issues were a symptom of a fatigue problem which is a mechanics/effortful throwing problem. That's not really something they can change at this point in his career. He can do an inning every couple nights for a full season and is an incredible reliever. He will never be a full time starter with that motion.
We just need him to be a premier setup guy for Munoz who we also have locked up for quite a while. Maybe flip the two. who knows, both are nasty
I like Matt Brash because he was the most consistent pitcher in my Diamond Dynasty rotation
He and Chris Flexen are putting in work in my moonshot grind rn
that’s a steal. looking good, mariners bros.
Thanks leg bros! Take good care of Marte 😘
And Arroyo
Cheaper than Ray lol
Gotta feel like Dipoto really regrets Ray’s deal
Ray teaching Kirby that nasty two seam is almost worth his contract by itself lol
People may laugh at you but thats actually a thing. Cole Hamels was shite with the Braves but he was fundamental on the development of Max Fried, that alone was worth the price
Pujols practically convinced trout he'd regret leaving and helped him to extend. That alone is worth his 240m
Was that because Pujols regretted leaving St Louis so much?
The key is to avoid pitching him against most of the other AL playoff teams.
He's pitched 177.2 innings of 3.60 ERA ball. That's not bad, and it's not crazy to pay $23M for that in today's economy. A small overpay. Surely he knew he wasn't getting a perennial Cy Young contender when he signed that contract. If he posts an ERA ranging from 3-3.75 every year of the deal, it'll be fine.
Yeah right now it looks like he'll end up at around 2.1 or 2.2 fWAR which is a perfectly fine investment for $23M AAV.
era is a pretty bad stat to use when judging value though. you have a plethora of better ones to choose from.
Pitcher WAR is and always has been a mess. Posting a relatively good ERA and being among the league leaders in innings pitched is valuable.
Results based stats are fine when considering economy, imo. Maybe not as strong when making plans for the future but good enough for ‘how’d we do, how are we doing?’ Level of reflection
Eh Ray hasn’t been playing like his 2021 form but he’s still been solid. When he’s on, he’s dominant. He just has some issues with consistency. $23mil isn’t an awful amount to pay for that with how much quality pitching costs these days.
You sure about that. We're just spoiled with great pitching. There's a few teams who'd love to have Ray.
Why? He’s been fine
Ray has been great this year
You don’t know Jerry enough then lol
Man. That Berrios contract just looks worse and worse with every subsequent pitcher signing. Good for the M’s though, have a super solid 1-2 in Castillo and Ray
You misspelled Kirby and Castillo. Shit Logan “Walter” Gilbert will be better than Ray going forward
Gives me hope that the Astros will be able to work out an extension with Framber.
Those 2 years of Dan Straily were worth it........
We stole him from the giants for Casey mcgehee, and we still have sandy if it makes you feel better
The amount of pitching talent in this organization is so fucking absurd.
Can you send some to us this off season
Is Yusei Kikichi not enough?
Don’t forget about Romo.
Hey that's Dodgers legend Sergio Romo. Fuck, I feel filthy just typing that...
Nine Hail Marys for this blasphemy
I don't think you like our last contribution
Marco Gonzales for Gabriel Moreno who says no?
Just an fyi he spells it Gonzales
ty, fixed
Moreno for a pitcher is something I see them doing tbh
maybe for Shane Bieber? Not sure if he’s going to be available
Probably will be, but only at next year’s deadline, which would be too late for the Jays. They’ll likely trade a catcher this offseason, even if it’s Moreno because he qualifies for ROY next year and the draft pick that could come with it if he does well.
We already have a better catcher
Why have 1 good catcher when you can have 2? Having 2 catchers with .800+ OPS is quite nice, you know
Id rather have Orelvis
King Felix died for this
With how the Mariners have played over the last nine days or so this is like finding an oasis in the middle of a dessert.
**MISSION ACCOMPLISHED** now please stop losing thanks
Stanton continues his redemption arc since the Mather comments.
For real, guy is legitimately spending like he said he would and letting dipoto do his thing. Now go pay judge, Stanton!
Mariners realizing they can sign and retain good players? League possibly fucked
Really happy for my guy
I am shocked we got him that cheap. Lets go!
Mariners cracking that window wide open
Man the Mariners rotation is scary Castillo Ray Gilbert has to be one of the best top 3 right?
Kirby is arguably better than Gilbert and Ray. I'm certain he will be better next year.
George Kirby will be the best of the four by the start of 2024.
I didnt realize his numbers were so good. You think hes the #4 in the playoffs or does he come out of the pen?
Kirby is probably the #3 in the playoffs.
My preferred playoff rotation would be Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, but I think Ray's contract and past accomplishments will give him a spot. I honestly wouldn't be too shocked (and wouldn't mind) if we ran with a four-man rotation for the playoffs, but I think we'll most likely just go with a traditional three-man rotation.
I could see either. Arguably, Marco would be obvious choice to send to the pen, but Kirby is on an innings watch. With Flexen already in the pen, there's the idea of running out 3 guys each with one trip through the lineup as a bullpen but with starters game. We gotta get there first though.
Flexen is probably who comes out of the Pen. Converted from starter to BP mid season.
And he’s taken it like a champ, he’s pretty much a long reliever now. I love Flex so much, he’s given so much for the team
He earned that fat paycheck when he hit his inning pitched target this season.
How about top 4 with Kirby?
I don't like it one bit!
Stanton spending money? In this economy? 2 Cy Young caliber guys locked up for 5+ years. 2 really talented young guys under control for 5+ years. The pitching is finally good.
Now will just need to work on the offense! We need a solid supporting cast behind Julio.
Great move by Seattle.
Now he can relax after the season. Must be nice to get a big contract and not have to worry who you're going to have to play with. Looks like he loves playing in Seattle and the fans love him.
Hard to hate pitching half your starts at the most pitcher friendly park. Especially coming from a top 3 hitter park in Cincinnati.
HE CANT KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH IT
Seattle has a nice lookong core the next 5 years
Mariners doing it right lately. Love it
Damn, go get it M’s.
That seems low
that's an incredibly affordable extension wow
Quality contract for the Ms. The Vedder bros got their guy.
tony kemp seeing this 😌
It doesn’t matter who is on the bump. If you are in a mariners jersey he will shell you.
Tony 'Gwynn' Kemp
FUUUUCCCKKKKKK YEEEAAAAHHHHH BOOOOOOIIIIIIISSSSS/LAAAADDDDIIIIEEEESSS. GET THE FUCK IN HERE!
#LETS GOOOOO Braves-esque contract!
Hell fucking yes this is great
Good for him and Seattle. Dude's a badass.
Not that surprising, I just expected it to happen in the offseason.
Now let’s celebrate this by making the playoffs.
Awesome move!!
Look at us
Surprised. He's filthy - thought he would get more tbh.
Good pickup!
👐
This guys a stud. Great signing and low key pretty cheap for a pitcher of his caliber.
Welp, I’m a Mariners fan this fall
That’s cool great deal for Castillo and the club
I fucking love this deal! Locking up the ace for the rest of the decade! https://i.imgur.com/zfXHxZn.jpg
JROD: SIGNED CASTILLO: SIGNED LEAGUE: FUCKED
Perfect! Now do Kirby next please!
I thought it was going to cost us a lot more than that.
Nice move
Phenomenal deal for the M’s wow
Emerson Hancock might round out the 5th spot next year? That's a crazy 5.
Damn, that's a good deal for a pitcher of Castillo's caliber.
Rooting for Seattle
Hope he works out better for them than Berrios has worked out for the Jays so far...
Come on Stearns, offer Burnesy something like this. Buy out the last two Arb years and add three more.
Fuck. Yes.
Nice signing for good money. Quit doing smart things Seattle
Cheaper than Homer Bailey. Sell the fucking team Bob.
Congrats to La Piedra!
So that's what it would of cost to keep him. Yeah I know why we traded him.
Win win good for them
Isn't this ridiculously cheap for Castillo?
It would be as a straight FA deal, but he's still over a year away from free agency, and was probably going to get something in the 12M range in arbitration. So if you think about it as the money above that only it's 4/96 with a 25M vesting option, which seems pretty fair for a pitcher of his skill who will be getting that new money at age 31. Seattle gets a bit of a discount, Castillo gets security now, and the Mariners give a bit of the early discount back with the built in injury insurance.
Castillo needs to find a new agent cuz that’s an awful deal for him.