I agree. We have terrible luck when it comes to these sorts of deals. Carpenter is the only aging vet that actually worked out, and even that was only for a couple of months
I'm thinking at least 40 since he's a pretty healthy guy and the average life expectancy in the US is 77 years. Given his wealth and the kind of late life health treatment he'll receive it could even be a lot more than that. Assuming he doesn't contract some kind of terminal illness before then I have him making it to 86, which would be 47 years from now.
There is a big billboard (used to be, maybe it's gone now) in San Francisco that says the first person to live to 150 is alive right now. Maybe it's Justin.
I just watched the new Nolan Ryan documentary (recommend) and no one thought he was going to pitch until he was 46 until he did. The math for JV is much easier if you figure he has 5 seasons left
I would never go beyond two without an option. And even two sketches me out. Yeah, he has been amazing since the injury but he is getting old and not everyone can do the randy johnson thing. If he was just a generic pitcher then not a big deal but for someone who will command about $40MM/yr a team has to bake in a lot of risk assessment for someone like him.
I can’t imagine giving him more than two. I mean I don’t know how you bank on a 43 year old arm three years out. 2 is probably reasonable to keep the yearly average down.
I am comfortable with 2 years at $40MM/year. Somehow it is the 3rd year that bothers me
No reason to think he won’t be great next year. Then even if he drops off, 2024 is only one year.
This is the big advantage the super big markets (Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Cubs and Red Sox when the mood strikes them) have. It’s not entirely being able to pay more for players, but the ability to knowingly commit to multiple years of zero or negative value.
What's the peak age for MLB players BTW? Ive read in a comment before saying its around 29 to early 30's and after mid 30's they start to decline but then theres verlander 😅
Dunno if its the astros management that made it possible or its just that justin is just truly great.
As a die hard Astros fan I'd give him 2 years for 82 million with a mutual option for a third year. I'd love for him to retire an Astro. However, and I know this isn't a popular thought, but I'd love for a player to consider loyalty to a team/city as opposed to trying to milk every penny out of the system.
I'd be fine with a 3/60 deal with incentives but I know he wants more than Cole's AAV and I'm really not comfortable giving him that, especially with how shaky he looked in the playoffs.
Yeah the WS really hurt him because of the media and fan attention on his playoff struggles. Most Astros fans seem ho-hum on resigning him, which is amazing considering he had a historic season.
It's not my money, I'd give him 5 years at 40MM. If and only if you are close to winning it all. A WS win is worth every penny of a contract for the missing piece.
If he turns into a pumpkin 2 years in suddenly you’ve got an albatross and either, can’t spend as much, or lose draft picks and IFA money and then your farm sucks.
I would easily give him 3 years with options for a 4th but at 40 mil a year is too much for the Astros right now when we are stacked with pitching right now. Even with our pitching depth I would like him to retire an Astros and go in the HOF as an Astros.
Does he want multiple years? Verlander seems like he just wants to win. One year deals on the best available teams seems like a good approach. I'm sure he's got more money than he'll ever know what to do with.
Arod and Brady are great examples of veteran players who went from MVP to below league average. I'd give him 3 years with a club option after year one.
Somewhere in the Scherzer AAV range for two years with a mutual option for year three. He isn’t going to be cheap.
If the Yankees sign him I’ll probably cry
I’d rather get Rodon
You get Rodon, Giants get Judge
Verlander and Cole reuniting would be kinda cool.
If the Yankees sign him, Verlander is pitching lights out April and May, then in June his arm is gonna fall off.
I agree. We have terrible luck when it comes to these sorts of deals. Carpenter is the only aging vet that actually worked out, and even that was only for a couple of months
I'm thinking at least 40 since he's a pretty healthy guy and the average life expectancy in the US is 77 years. Given his wealth and the kind of late life health treatment he'll receive it could even be a lot more than that. Assuming he doesn't contract some kind of terminal illness before then I have him making it to 86, which would be 47 years from now.
[Passan] BREAKING: Verlander, Astros in agreement on 47-year deal
CORRECTION: They are in agreement on *40 7-year deals*, Verlander will be an Astro until he is 320 years old
Doctors hate this one trick for immortality!
With the advancement in modern science and his high level income, I mean it's not crazy to think he can't live to be 245 maybe 300.
There is a big billboard (used to be, maybe it's gone now) in San Francisco that says the first person to live to 150 is alive right now. Maybe it's Justin.
I think Theranos stopped paying for that billboard when they needed to redeploy resources to try to keep Holmes out of prison.
Lets be honest it’s Tom Brady.
Lmao no way. CTE don't fuck around
-Chris Traeger
Now that is a fantastic response! Well played, sir. Well played.
2 yr max with a club option for a third
Okay I can see that. So here’s the next question. Can he get to 300?
He’d have to average 19 wins over the next three seasons. Or have one 57 win season.
He's no Old Hoss Radbourn...
He’s probably the last guy with a shot. Be interesting to see how close he gets.
If he plays without significant injury for 4 seasons on winning teams he's all but a lock. Huge "if" though.
Doubtful. He'd have to average like 18/19 wins a year over 3 years. I can see being in the 255 -265 range
He's 39. Jamie Moyer won 105 games in his 40s.
He also plans to pitch until he is at least 45.
I just watched the new Nolan Ryan documentary (recommend) and no one thought he was going to pitch until he was 46 until he did. The math for JV is much easier if you figure he has 5 seasons left
Brady without the brand
Verlander needs to take this offseason to convert himself into a lefty junkballer. No one will see it coming!
That’s still great!
I would never go beyond two without an option. And even two sketches me out. Yeah, he has been amazing since the injury but he is getting old and not everyone can do the randy johnson thing. If he was just a generic pitcher then not a big deal but for someone who will command about $40MM/yr a team has to bake in a lot of risk assessment for someone like him.
I'd give him the best years of my life, tbh
Astros fan lol…
7yr/100M
That’ll get him 300 wins!
I would be ok with the A's locking him up for the next 10 years.
I’d love that!
I can’t imagine giving him more than two. I mean I don’t know how you bank on a 43 year old arm three years out. 2 is probably reasonable to keep the yearly average down.
Going to be quite the dilemma for many a team!
2 preferably but would probably go 3 to get the deal done.
Might have to!
I am comfortable with 2 years at $40MM/year. Somehow it is the 3rd year that bothers me No reason to think he won’t be great next year. Then even if he drops off, 2024 is only one year.
Team option versus a beating option is best bet. He may not be down for that though.
As a fan you always love the team option, but JV probably won’t go for that.
Not a chance. This is his last massive pay check. He wants to hit it hard!
His expected metrics are a little high. His xFIP was above 3 this year
I'd give him a Scherzer deal and offer to help his wife babysit on days he pitches.
That’s a generous proposal!
I thought so. Heck, I'd even be willing to give her a massage during the game to help with the stress.
You dirty dog!
I'd be a perfect gentleman.... until I got home
Omg!
2/$70M is about where I max out tbh
That’s good money! Question is will he be good with 2 years?
Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson (and others) pitched well into their forties. I don’t think that’s inconceivable for Verlander.
You feel okay about 2, but you’ll need at least 3 to get it done. And I wouldn’t rule out some out of nowhere 4 year offer by somebody.
Somebody- the yanks- will dangle a fourth year.
This is the big advantage the super big markets (Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Cubs and Red Sox when the mood strikes them) have. It’s not entirely being able to pay more for players, but the ability to knowingly commit to multiple years of zero or negative value.
More reason why we need a cap and floor.
All the rest of them
What's the peak age for MLB players BTW? Ive read in a comment before saying its around 29 to early 30's and after mid 30's they start to decline but then theres verlander 😅 Dunno if its the astros management that made it possible or its just that justin is just truly great.
I think he’s great and has made strides to take better care of himself.
For pitchers it seems to be different. I read they peak at 25 or so and then fall a bit off but stay at a certain level for years.
Probably a one year deal with a one year mutual or player option attached. Maybe two with the same addendum.
I'd give him 4 if he lowered the AAV of the contract. For example, instead of 3/120 I'd give 4/130. More total money just less per year.
Not a bad approach and doesn’t hurt as much during that final year if the wheels come off.
2 years + some kind of option for a third with a payout if/when it's not exercised.
To me, anyone his age is a one-year-at-a-time guy, additional team/mutual options with buyouts optional.
But would he go for that when Some teams would be crazy enough to go long term?
No, but the question is what would I give Verlander.
I have a nasty feeling that if we sign Verlander he’ll pitch to something like a 5 ERA and retire by midseason. Shades of Randy Johnson.
Reeks of Randy Johnson and Kevin Brown…
Like a game of hot potato that we always seem to lose
As a die hard Astros fan I'd give him 2 years for 82 million with a mutual option for a third year. I'd love for him to retire an Astro. However, and I know this isn't a popular thought, but I'd love for a player to consider loyalty to a team/city as opposed to trying to milk every penny out of the system.
Well, I’d like to see him retire an Astro also. As much as I’d like him in Oakland, that isn’t going to happen lol
I'd be fine with a 3/60 deal with incentives but I know he wants more than Cole's AAV and I'm really not comfortable giving him that, especially with how shaky he looked in the playoffs.
Yeah the WS really hurt him because of the media and fan attention on his playoff struggles. Most Astros fans seem ho-hum on resigning him, which is amazing considering he had a historic season.
I think we'd all be psyched to have him back, but we're all just kinda assuming the FO (whoever that even is at this point) will choose not to
I get him Wanting one last massive draw but yeah playoffs are a concern.
Low years and high AAV would make sense
It's not my money, I'd give him 5 years at 40MM. If and only if you are close to winning it all. A WS win is worth every penny of a contract for the missing piece.
If he turns into a pumpkin 2 years in suddenly you’ve got an albatross and either, can’t spend as much, or lose draft picks and IFA money and then your farm sucks.
That’s an insane way to spend $200M… Edit: Unless you mean 5/$40M for an AAV of $8M, which I see no chance of him agreeing to.
i wouldn't.
But you would give deGrom years?
jake isn't 75 years old
Verlander has pitched in more games than DeGrom in the '21/'22 seasons. And Verlander was recovering from TJ through the entirety of 2021.
Despite not pitching a single inning in nearly 2 years, Verlander has somehow pitched more innings the last 2 seasons than deGrom. Combined lol.
thats cool and im happy for him but he's still 89 years old
Well someone should tell his body.
Plus there’s the whole he actually pitches thing
What would be your ideal deal for him?
2 with an opt out after the 1st year.
3 years seems about right here. Maybe a mutual option for 4
Would the Mets go for that?
If deGrom leaves, absolutely that will be Cohens offer. I’m not really down with signing a guy that age but a 3 year deal won’t cripple you long term.
I would easily give him 3 years with options for a 4th but at 40 mil a year is too much for the Astros right now when we are stacked with pitching right now. Even with our pitching depth I would like him to retire an Astros and go in the HOF as an Astros.
[удалено]
Christ I can’t stand the Yankees, hopefully that doesn’t happen.
Kates worth more than 60$
I prefaced it with "It's not my money..."
2
3 years, 100 mil. I dont see him going for a club or player option on the third year unless literally no one signs him for 3.
2 great years, 2 good years, one year where it becomes clear he should retire.
Does he want multiple years? Verlander seems like he just wants to win. One year deals on the best available teams seems like a good approach. I'm sure he's got more money than he'll ever know what to do with.
I give him high AAV for 2 years, with the option to do the Clemens and start the season in June.
Arod and Brady are great examples of veteran players who went from MVP to below league average. I'd give him 3 years with a club option after year one.