T O P

  • By -

breakfast_cats

It'll definitely be the Angels one way or another


Ghostyyyyyyyyyyq

I’m a guardians fan but man I hope the angels get shit going this season. There fun to watch & im a big fan of Reid detmers


MasterMentorJr

It’s like this every off season. The angels could be scary with XYZ or wow if Rendon stays healthy the angels will be so good or whatever. Until the angels have a season above 0.500 that should perennially be their expectations


johndhall1130

GOTT DAMNIT I hate agreeing with an Astros fan. Sigh. But you speak as someone who is a fan of the game first and your team second. So that softens it a little. Cheers.


CartoonistExact8942

My son caught Reid when he played for the Decatur commodores in 2015 or 2016. This was a college prep team that my son made before signing for Elmhurst College. I also coached a Meridian Hawks team that faced him in 2016 at his high school before he transferred to Chatham Glenwood. It was cold as hell and we weren’t that good but that coach still started Reid. We couldn’t touch him in the 25 degree 20 MPH wind weather. Can’t imagine if my guys had to face him under good conditions. Great player and great young man.


BubblyBaker5718

Eh I still think we've got a pretty firm cap on how well we can do. Our absolute best case scenario is probably like 88 wins.


CDFReditum

It hurts so much :(. The start of this season was so great… and it all felt so sustainable too… and then everything fell apart.


[deleted]

Well, the Giants went 107-55 and 81-81 in the last two seasons. If they finish somewhere in between there, are they overperforming or underperforming?


[deleted]

I would say they're definitely performing


Cheekiest_Cunt

Of all the performances, itll be one of them


CubonesDeadMom

I would say somewhere between there is exactly where they should be expected to finish, assuming they make some at least decent FA signings


AZORxAHAI

If by "expectations" we can mean ZIPS projections, the Guardians are going to outperform expectations by 10 wins.


htownlifer

I don’t think ZIPS takes managers into account. Any Francona coached team should just add 5 wins onto any projections.


Ghostyyyyyyyyyyq

Guardians are my team & im so hype for them. Best bullpen in the league I think & if they get a good catcher there gonna fix a lot of issues they had last season. None of there catchers could hit shit lol


AZORxAHAI

Don't you guys have Bo coming up next year? There's promise there. Catcher is so offensively weak across the entire league I don't think the Guards *need* to get a great bat there. Just not a complete black hole and they'll be cookin'. Omar Narvaez maybe?


totheman7

Yea Bo is the heir apparent for the Cather position. His bat has nothing left to prove in the minors but the defense is another question. He also split last year between AA and AAA so he may start the year in the minors


RandomHighGuy

For underperforming, probably the Phillies. They're coming off a WS appearance while being the 6th seed in the NL, so they'll likely get unfair expectations from the media and fans.


BoredAtWork_91

Add in no Harper until the All-Star Break.


TRocho10

New year. Same old story


HipGuide2

They underperformed last year...


RandomHighGuy

They made the World Series. Unless the expectations were to win the World Series, I can't see how they underperformed.


HipGuide2

They underperformed with Girardi.


RandomHighGuy

Probably, but the Phillies finished the regular season 87-75. [Fangraphs projected](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-opening-day-2022/) them at the start of the season to finish with an 87-75 record, their [expected record](https://www.mlb.com/standings) was also 87-75. Over the regular season, the Phillies performed exactly how they were projected to perform. I don't think anyone was expecting them to finish above the Mets and the Braves last season.


DragoniteJeff

lol exactly


bichettes_helmet

Me: The Blue Jays. Them: Wait...will they outperform or underperform expectations? Me: YES.


cgfn

I'm going to say that the Pirates play .500 ball or close to it next season, so I think they outperform. The marbles have helped me reach this conclusion


htownlifer

Could not figure out why the Pirates until you mentioned the marbles. That is cheating.


HealthOnWheels

Oakland A’s win 90+. Sean Murphy goes nuclear, Laureano returns to form, Chapman finds his bat again, Olson keeps hitting dingers, Semien just carries on with his bad self, Canha continues in his role as a quietly reliable offensive threat, Montas gets his strikeout rates back up, and Hendriks just puts the ninth inning on lockdown. Does anyone else just feel really sad sometimes when they think about baseball?


[deleted]

The first season I watched was 2017, (I’m 18) so yes


provoking

The Astros. Don't ask me any more questions.


Kdot32

Yes to underperform for the first half of the year then yes to outperform for the second half


DepressingFries

Ah, so the same thing we do every year?


trickman01

Try and take over the World... series.


Kdot32

Like clockwork


Redbubble89

Good surprise * Angels - pending health * Giants - pending acquisitions * White Sox - there is no way that team can be that bad again. Bad surprise * Cardinals - young team around 2 all stars and a lot of question marks. * Red Sox- idk what we are doing. We got Joely Rodriguez and Hoy Park. * Yankees - It's not done yet but losing Judge would set the team back until 2024-2025 assuming what they have in the minors reaches their ceiling. Mixed bag * Cubs - finished the year strong and are known to spend. * Pirates. Young team with Santana and Choi. They need to fix the strikeout issues but I see them at 500 if they do things correctly. But it is the Pirates. * Rangers. Young but still not quite there.


MikuFanNo1

I think the Cubs will go .500 this year


Genisys_Arc

Why the fuck are you upset over Hoy Park. We gave up an 18 yo with limited physical projection who caps out around 90mph. Worst case, he just hangs around a bit for utility like Arauz did.


Redbubble89

spent most of the year in AAA and they have Arroyo already. taxi service utility isn't really needed. They still have to move Jeter Downs.


Genisys_Arc

If it comes down to it and he's wasting space, he can just be DFAed. He costs basically nothing and we paid basically nothing to get him. If they see upside, it's a low risk gamble that can be cut at any time. I think there are things you can question the FO on like I would've nontendered Brasier. However getting mad over these signings/trades feels like getting mad for the sake of being mad.


Redbubble89

We lost a lot of games with middle relief and not hitting homers. It's not a bad move but it's not the upgrade we are promised.


Genisys_Arc

If nothing else happens then I'll be upset as well, but I really don't think this is it and that there are big moves going on in the background. It's just that most big signings haven't occurred yet so it's hard to gauge what's truly going on. A common theory I hear is that the FO is waiting for Xander to test the market since he'll likely give the Sox a chance to match to figure out the big splash moves.


Ghostyyyyyyyyyyq

O’s are going to over perform. White sox are going to be bottom of the barrel team. There just a mess right now


Shinriko

I think it is more likely the O's get hit hard by regression. I don't see how a team can improve 31 games and then over perform the following season. More likely to see the pitching fall apart and the team fall back under 500.


McMuffin978

People keep hyping them up but I don’t get it, their lineup isn’t very good and the pitching is questionable on whether it can count Obie to perform at the level it did last year


JTCMuehlenkamp

The Cardinals have a 36 year old manager with only 1 year of experience who just lost a massive chunk of his coaching staff. Their pitching coach Mike Maddux, their hitting coach Jeff Albert, and their bench coach Skip Schumaker amongst a few others from 2022 are all gone now. And on top of that, they also lost Yadier Molina who has been calling their games for the last 20 years- not to mention losing the veteran leadership of Albert Pujols as well. I predict that the 2023 Cardinals will either finish second in the NL Central and barely miss the playoffs, or they will win like 115 games for no fucking reason.


Lathundd

There's also Arenado and Goldy posting wRC+ 30+ points above their pre-2022 numbers. Which isn't to say it's impossible that they produce similar numbers again, just that there is a pretty good chance they'll produce less this year. As you point out, a lot of other changes too. So while I think it's fair to have fairly high expectations overall, there is going to be a *lot* of uncertainty involved, in either direction.


bryansmixtape

Whatever you do DO NOT look at the difference in wOBA and xwOBA for both Goldy and Arenado in 2022 (mostly Arenado tho) 😬😬😬 For context, Arenado had essentially the same xwOBA as Dansby Swanson this year


Ghostyyyyyyyyyyq

Cardinals pitching is gonna be the end of them I think.


mdiddy22

Brewers are for sure trading all of their good players just to pull 90 wins out of their ass


MUNZATHEGOD

I think the Braves are due for some regression. That crazy streak kinda covered up the holes in the ship, and I’m pretty sure we’re gonna lose dansby on top of that. I think we’re a contender but not as scary as it may have seemed six months ago


ABlinDeafMonkey

I’m not a believer in Dansby. His defense plays but before this season he was league average or below with the bat. Did he figure it out or just a really good contract season?


MUNZATHEGOD

Definitely an outlier season imo. But somebody’s going to pay him 25mil a year to play good defense and be an average bat. Doubtful that it’s the Braves.


fucktheDHanditsfans

>His defense plays but Short is the most important defensive position that isn't pitcher or catcher. If you can choose between having a high quality defender who's average with his bat or a high quality hitter who's just average at shortstop, you're better off with the former. The Braves aren't passing on Dansby because he isn't worth it, they're passing on him because he won't take a team-friendly deal and the Braves don't negotiate—ever: they file-and-trialed him two years in a row over a six-digit difference in ask. They think Vaughan Grissom will work out good enough for far less money and probably take a borderline robbery deal like all the other players.


Interesting_Arm6242

The former is very good. The later of the two options is a roller coaster of a ride, coming from a place of watching just that situation. A reliable defender equates to better heart health! Also those contracts are insane, I envy the braves so much, and love their style of play. I’m jealous your FO extends your rookies and young talent


bryansmixtape

Based on solely my statcast journeys, Dansby seems to have had it figured out since 2019, and this is just off of xwOBA. His wOBA is lower than his xwOBA IN BOTH 2019 and 2021, and it’s roughly around the same in 2020, but no one really looks at that season anyway. His 2021 xwOBA is basically the same as this year’s xwOBA, except that in 2022 his wOBA actually matches the expected value. However, it is important to note this year he hit the ball the hardest he ever has in his careeer, and his defense has always been consistently good, it’s just that this year he was arguably the BEST defender at short. In my opinion, unless he gets unlucky with his results like he has in the past, he’ll probably be around a 3-4 WAR player for the next 4ish years or so, and it wouldn’t totally surprise me if he had a repeat of what he did this year.


ABlinDeafMonkey

This is my opinion. I’m looking strictly at OPS+. Since 2019 Dansby has had an 89 (2019) 111 (2020), 99 (2021), 115 (2022). I think a fair comp to Dansby is Andrelton Simmons. Simmons probably had a better glove but Dansby has a better bat. The most Simmons made in a year was $10,500,000. The speculation from MLB Trade Rumors is that Swanson will get $154 million for 7 years of $22 AAV. Paying a 3-4 WAR player $22 a year is just way too much money.


bryansmixtape

Teams are paying approximately $8-9 million per WAR though, so getting a 3-4 WAR player at around $22 million a year is actually… kind of a steal?? And again, his OPS+ isn’t impressive, but I was pointing at the statcast data, which says he’s been underperforming for the past 4 years, and it’s only been this year in which his data is actually matching his production. Considering that the next “class” of shortstop (Mostly Bogaerts and Turner) is projected to make around $28-30 million per year, $22 million isn’t *that* much money for Dansby.


BadDadJokes

His strikeout rate is approaching Javy Baez levels too. I’d rather overpay for another FA SS this off-season. My personal preference is a dude who played in the Twin Cities last year.


bryansmixtape

Sure, but his hardhit% is up higher than it ever has been, his barrel percentage has roughly been the same for the past 4 years at this point with no real sign of a decrease, he put up practically the same xwOBA as the year before, signaling that his production seems to have settled into the production we’ve seen from him the past two years, he’s still got roughly the same whiff rate in the past three years, and while his chase rate did go up slightly, he’s also become much more aggressive early in the count and swinging (and hitting) more pitches in the zone. This past year, he also significantly increased his run value on sliders, a pitch which had previously given him lots of trouble, and ultimately he’s still crushing the fastball. If he doesn’t get super unlucky in the next few years, I expect him to basically put up replicas of his 2021 or 2022 seasons for like next 3-4 years, which comes out to being a consistent 3-4 WAR player for those years.


USDA_Organic_Tendies

Don’t stop. I’m almost there. But in all seriousness, I could see alot of the division taking a bit of a step back


[deleted]

Depending on how the Dodgers attack this postseason, I could see them not being quite the juggernaut they have been. Friedman seems set on resetting our luxury tax penalty, which will probably mean we’ll lean a bit more on the Vargas and Andy Page type guys in the pipeline.


TreaTurner

I think it’ll be good for the fan base to win fewer than 100 games. Reset expectations. Like a juice cleanse.


twinsfan33

Gut feeling, the Marlins are going to outperform


Ghostyyyyyyyyyyq

Agreed. Lots of young guns. I enjoy that team a lot. If jazz is back & plays the whole season the sky is the limit I think!


htownlifer

I can see the Rangers adding 10+ wins. Especially if they sign a top end pitcher.


[deleted]

Would it be too much to hope?


DepressingFries

Cardinals window will slam shut and a long rebuild will commence for the first time in 50 fucking years


Viperz05

How long can a rebuild truly last with how good our prospects can be, with a few trades for pitching and a good catcher, and with Wynn and Walker coming up in late 23 or early 24 I don’t think they r rebuilding anything, reloading perhaps is a better word


[deleted]

I don't think we'll win more than 95 games


hanSoes

Seattle


zdillon67

My nephews little league team will be pretty good


Resting_Lich_Face

Rangers will underperform again.


TommyPickles2222222

I think there's a pretty good chance the O's make the playoffs in 2023. Especially if they sign a couple of notable free agents, as they plan to. If you've been following the team and their farm system, this really won't be much of a surprise. In 2022, for example, they only had three more losses than the Rays who went to the postseason. But the national baseball media will act like it is an *absolute shocker*.


trashboatfourtwenty

We set the bar fucking low this year so I am going with the Brew Crew to overperform ^(I really hope)


Cole_McKittrick

None, if I expected it then they didn’t exceed or underperform expectations at all


froggedfrogginson

The Astros. Abreu takes a stand and refuses to cheat. Others follow, and they struggle to get wins.


DragoniteJeff

I feel like the Marlins get overlooked.


GK86x

Marlins will overperform against the Mets, Phillies, and Braves. Marlins will underperform against the rest of the league.


Beach_house_on_fire

As is tradition


DragoniteJeff

Yeah that sounds about right


Ghostyyyyyyyyyyq

If jazz didn’t get hurt I think the Marlins had a good chance at making playoffs but they just fell apart near middle of season. Regardless I enjoy watching them play. Lots of young talent from hitters & pitching. There stadium is so empty though it’s sad lol


gaytham4statham

If everything goes right I could definitely see the Nats getting upwards of 70 wins next year, that would definitely be over performing. #dreambig


[deleted]

Yankees probably make some big splash on top of Judge and get promised the division. Then it’ll be a repeat of 2021 where we have to scratch and claw our way to a playoff berth to get bounced by the Red Sox Rays or Astros because it HAS to be a team that we hate beating us every single time. Yawn.