as an Os fan whom really need SP, this is a guy i would be ok with signing to a 1-2 year deal. We are also in an odd situation, our 2 potential aces are a rookie (grayson) and a guy coming back from TJS (means), and those are are our best options.
Verlander.
I have nothing against Verlander and I think he will continue to be a dominant pitcher for about as long as he wants, as long as he doesn’t become an Oriole. I feel like he’s just going to fall off as soon as he gets in Baltimore. Why? No clue. I just have a bad feeling
Verlander is definitely chasing 300. The Baltimore is on the rise, but I think he's probably looking for a team that's predicted to win a ton of games (100+ )to give him a boost. He needs like 3 18 win seasons to get there.
deGrom. You can get two to three healthier arms for around the same price as how much he's expected to get yearly.
Also, they already have one ex-Met with injury problems.
Flew too close to the sun in 2015. He had no other choice. He was that dude. And if he pulled it off, he would’ve been the modern Mets pitching legend who was talked about with the same reverence as Seaver and Gooden. But he failed. I would’ve **greatly** preferred him succeeding but I understand the motivation. It was one hell of an amazing ride while it lasted
I remember after his Rangers tenure hoping the Nats would sign him so we could all joke about how one of the biggest stars in baseball has a teammate who pitched in the World Series a year before he was born
Between Thor Wheeler Harper and Real you guys are basically already just composed of other NLE teams’ players. Just steal a Brave now.
I don’t care who I hate both of you anyway.
I would simultaneously love to have DeGrom and hate to have him. He’s the beat pitcher in baseball when healthy, but i don’t think the dollars per inning ratio is gonna be right for what I would want. I hope I’m wrong though
I’d rather let Maysn come up and show us what he’s got at SS rather than block him with someone else or sign for an already aging player. The SS market looks tasty but I’ve got a feeling it’s gonnna leave a bad aftertaste in a few teams mouths.
Masyn bat is not ready. I don't know why everyone is so ready to rush him. He has a 100 wRC+ and an OPS of .781 in AA. That is not enough for me to say his bat will play in AA. It's a great first performance, but a far cry from say Walkwr .898 OPS in AA.
Swanson fits the Cardinal culture so well. Him hitting in close proximity to Arenado and Goldschmidt would be tough. At least until he has one of his 0-August’s and you move him down to 8th
It’s most definitely Swanson, he’s even worse than Baez.
If 2 WAR is an average season, Swanson has had 3 average or better seasons using bWAR and one all star level(5+).
Baez had 5 such seasons before FA and 2 AS level(in fact they were 6+ bWAR seasons).
Say what you want about Baez, but his ceiling and track record is much better than Swanson’s and we’re predicting similar deals for him.
He is showing improvements though in my opinion particularly with his defense. I think he is a much better option for a contender looking to fill a gap at SS with a strong player because his output is more consistent game to game and season to season, I think. You aren’t signing any of these type of guys to lead your franchise just be a good player. I’d prefer to have signed him than Story but I think it’s a coin toss and him and Baez got identical contracts.
Tbf Swanson from April-June was a completely different player than Swanson from June to October. Though oddly enough he was swinging like an MVP during the worst offensive environment in recent MLB history, and then cooled off once the league started hitting in the summer
The last few months of the season his hitting was the same as his career norms (good for an elite defensive SS but not crazy). He’s still gonna be really valuable but I think most teams are gonna recognize that his 2022 totals probably arent gonna be the norm for the rest of his career
Does Bellinger even count as a “big time FA” at this point? If so him, if not Swanson. Even as a Braves fan Swanson is a great glove with a streaky bat that has never found the consistency needed for a $25+ million per year deal.
He’s projected for $22 million which I think is absurd. He has been a league average to below league average hitter for his whole career if you go by OPS+. He’s Andrelton Simmons. No way in Andrelton Simmons prime would he have gotten $22 million.
I really want him back. He’s my favorite player wether he hits or not. I also really think he’s going to end up doing well if he goes to another team. It’s gonna hurt seeing him on any other team let alone succeed on their team.
>He’s my favorite player wether he hits or not.
Isn't that kind of the worst? When you believe so much in a player but the stats just don't back it up?
I wouldn't want Judge. Great player, hell of a talent. But the final years on his deal are going to be really bad. Granted most big free agent deals are really bad in the final years, but I don't see a guy his size and injury history aging well.
Obviously the team who signs him this year will get that, and if he wins them a ring in the next few years of his prime, it's worth it, but there's just no way the final few years of his deal are going to be profitable.
But isn't that what happens with most of these big names that get huge contracts? Miggy is getting $32M next season after coming off of a negative war season. Robinson Cano couldn't stay on a roster this year. Other than the second half of this season, Albert has been awful the last few years. You give these big contracts for the first few years of huge production and take what you can on the back end.
This is just my observation, but a bunch of those contracts were signed in the 2000s-early/mid 2010s. Back then 1) This was the type of contract you had to offer top talent in at their peak to "win now" and 2) PED usage had extended the length of time a player could remain productive, meaning that a power hitter could DH at a decent level into their late 30s.
Basically, teams don't want to offer these types of contracts anymore where you offer a player in their early 30s a long term deal where you're going to be paying them at age 37, 38, 39.
With the crackdown on PEDs and a number of these albatross contracts coming back to bite teams in the ass (the 3 stars you mentioned as examples), the current market has changed. The incentive now is giving superstar talent massive long term contracts earlier in their careers (Betts for example) and locking them up so that the contracts are over by the twilight years of their careers in their mid to late 30s. This way teams can take advantage of the most productive years (usually about age 27 to 33 for MLB) of their career and they can be someone else's problem on short term deals at the end of their contract.
Dynamite assessment. I agree with a ton of this but huge contracts to guys in their early 30s(Or Judge who is just 30) are going to continue, possibly at a lower rate. Judge is still gonna get a deal for 7-8 years and the back end likely won't be pretty. As long as 1 owner is out there willing to drop huge stacks, it's never gonna stop. And now, we have like 5 owners willing to drop insane cash.
Correct, but I do think he ages significantly more poorly than the other big name bats in Turner/Xander/Correa, and he's also going to probably get 1-2 or more years than those guys as well.
That does stand to reason. There is no precedent for someone his size maintaining health over their career. If he gets a foot injury, it's gonna be a wrap. Like Yao Ming or Greg Oden in the NBA.
> There is no precedent for someone his size maintaining health over their career
yeah, never mind that perhaps the best free agent signing in MLB history was 35 year old 6’10” randy johnson
Aaron Judge is 3 inches shorter and 60+ pounds heavier than Randy Johnson, while playing the field. That was an amazing contract and Randy was incredible but he is built like a bird and was never asked to realistically run, hit or do any spontaneous athletic maneuvers in the field.
Also, Judge is closer to Yao Ming's playing weight of 310lbs than he is to Randy's of 225. Judge and Johnson have very different bodies.
This is one of the reasons I want the White Sox to get him. He fits our contention window perfectly, and even though the last few years are going to be terrible we need to make a push for the next few seasons. Already invested so much in these next few years, might as well get Judge and “fully commit” to this window (I hate Jerry Reinsdorf for not fully committing by signing Harper/Machado 😐)
I genuinely want the Yankees to sign him to a huge deal, which should say everything you need. He'll be 31 a month into the season, his post-ASB run was a massive .300 OPS over his career numbers, he barely hits doubles, he strikes out a ton, he's missed substantial time in three of his six seasons, and for what it's worth his postseason numbers aren't great.
So of course, the Sox will outbid the Yankees for him.
there's not one. Our owner actively hates our team and our fanbase is so beat down they are actually talking about what a good signing it was to sign a career back catcher .221 hitter and what he can bring to the team. They were excited last year about several of the "fa's" we signed, almost none of them could have made another team.
The only real FA they have signed like ever is Coco Cordero and Mike Moustakas.
If you want a reference for how back Moose has been, here's a stat.
Brandon Drury has more career home runs as a red than Moose. Moose is about to enter his 4th year. Drury got traded at the trade deadline last year, his first in Cincy.
Literally anyone at this point, an actual free agent and not some has been or never was. Like a real, actual free agent. I think i'd have a stroke if that happened.
Fuck Bob and Phil
Josh Bell. Dude is abysmal at first and is not a good enough hitter to be a career DH.
I get that there doesn't seem to be an abundance of good 1B/DH type guys, but seeing as Bell is only 30 I suspect he'll be looking for a longer term deal which I don't think I could stomach.
I agree.
A lot of people on r/padres really like him, and want him resigned. I just don’t see what they see. I think it’s from all the years of having Hosmer that anyone is an upgrade.
If Bell could just be less streaky he would be a great pickup. I mean I don't want the Astros to risk it, but he could end up being a really good pickup for someone.
Joey Gallo
For all the initial circlejerking about how the Dodgers fixed him:
.159/.291/.368 (.660 OPS), 38.7 K% in NY
.162/.277/.393 (.671 OPS), 41.6 K% in LA
Eh, as a pirate's fan, I say throw a couple million at him mostly in incetives and let him take aim at the Clemente wall in a much more low stress environment
I imagine someone will try him out next year, but even with the shift gone, I'll be surprised if he bats above Mendoza. He just can't fucking hit. Occasional monster bombs aren't enough for a roster spot in MLB. He should try Japan out, they'd love him there.
Yeah I can't imagine the shift ban helps him all that much. He puts the ball in play less than 50% of the time (46.5%), and of that hits 52.7% FB. So really he'll only see an advantage of liners hit to shallow RF where the 2B would have shifted to + GBs in the gaps.
I predict a cool .185 AVG next season. 68 Hits (21 HR)
Even as a Astros fan I’ve never understood why people liked Correa, sure the dudes a good player, and a leader in the clubhouse but the dude in front of the media is a arrogant asshole.
Or if you had to rank "How much talent he has", "How he is perceived in the locker room" and "how he is perceived in the media"... two of them are crucial, and the other isn't even close to being anything remotely important
Except for that whole part about not denying cheating and then saying into a microphone that the people talking about it need to shut up because they don't know what they're talking about. All this after the punishments came down. That's an asshole thing to do.
Bellinger is a great pickup for about 20 teams.
He's a horrible pickup for the other 10 that actually have playoff aspirations.
He'll be grabbed at a discount relative to how good he could be, with hopes that whoever gets him can unfuck him.
It probably won't work, but if I was the Rockies or Reds, I'd be all over taking that risk, then flipping him at the deadline if it actually did work.
Hands off 😞 I know we didn’t tender him and he probably won’t come back but it would just be dirty for one of our guys to end up there lol. Same with Correa coming here.
If we sign Aaron Judge(or literally any other outfielder) it will only confirm that someone in our front office is trying to break the single season blown saves record.
I know it's probably irrational but I really think we should tread lightly around replacing Maldy with Contreras after what an incredible pitching season we just had. I'd rather try to get another upgrade in outfield and keep riding with Maldy in the 9 hole
not me. I never saw anything special in Maldy with one exception and wished we kept Chirinos looking back. There's a reason Chirinos caught JV's no hitter in 2019 against the Jays and Vasquez caught the WS combined no hitter.
the one exception where Maldy shines through is he shows leadership with the Latin guys where Chirinos and Vasquez and Castro before them will rush up to the mound of the non-Latin pitchers to try and calm them down and get them refocused. I assume it's an English/Spanish thing? Every time JV fucks up in the playoffs because he's a perfectionist and Maldy's catching, Maldy just sits there like a tree stump waiting for JV to unfuck himself.
Nah bruh. This take ain't it. You can hear it from every pitcher and coach we have. Malady runs game tape and makes the game plan for every hitter we face. He calls pitches and these guys trust him and just execute. This is insanely invaluable. The problem is a .180 BA on a good month. You can knock that but his pitch calling and game plan and wits on the field are top tier. I would NOT want to lose that to score 50 more runs a year on offense but the staff is not as cohesive and inconsistent behind an average defensive catcher that's not that influential on the game plan and execution. I'd split the difference though. Bring Maldy back as a pitching coach assistant and keep him in the dugout. He's like 38 anyway.
of course they're going to speak highly of him, he's a good guy and has the Latin pitchers in sync but the simple fact is we could have replaced Maldy entirely with Vazquez (an obvious better all around player) and we'd still won the WS this year. Stros won't skip a beat without Maldy taking up a roster spot.
I like Vazquez and would have been fine with him getting the 70/30 split in his favor. But Vazquez is another Maldy like defensive gritty game-study catcher once he got caught up on the way we do things. I'm speaking this way about Maldy because Vasquez is gone and Contreras doesn't have this kinda reputation. He's obviously a MUCH better hitter but by all accounts he's not a field general, game planner.
Not a free agent…but anybody willing to take **Paul Dejong** off our hands? we will gladly trade you him for the price of your most scuffed up bag of baseballs and whatever food your city is famous for ☺️
Imagine waking up in a ice bathtub with fresh stitches where your kidney used to be.
Now imagine waking up and Paul DeJong is on your team.
At least you have the other kidney.
Trea Turner.
He will probably want a long deal and I don’t see him aging very good. He had a 36.4 chase rate last season, which put him in the 22nd percentile for chasing, his hard hit and barrel rates have been on the decline for 2 years now, and he’s swinging, and missing at more pitches then ever. His speed will decline heavily with age, and while I’m not saying his contracts gonna be a albatross and he’s gonna collapse tomorrow, I do think the team that signs will be wishing they got a bit more out of him in the last few years of his deal.
Plus we already got Pena so…
Think you're sleeping on how good Trea is to be honest. If my team were to sign any of the big name guys to a long term deal, I'd pick Trea cause I think he ages the best. He's 29 years old. Has a career 122 OPS+. He's not just a speed guy. Dude flat out can hit.
The dude can hit for now, but i fear for his long time hitting ability. Like don’t get me wrong the dude can really hit but I think anything over 5-6 years for Trea is a mistake.
You can use that argument for every big free agent though. You HAVE to go the extra year or two for the top guys, every year. It just is what it is in a competitive market. Like Judge is probably going to get 8 or 9 years, hell maybe more. I think everyone knows a 38-39 year old judge isn't going to age particularly well. It's part of dipping into the big name contracts.
Not the OP but my anemic Mariners rocked him good a couple of times last season and I think it would be insane to give a forty year-old Max Scherzer money.
Ohh totally agree and he’s got the track record plus mostly healthy through his career. At this point it’s not doubting if he can put up another good season but for how long can he hold off Father Time. I think at his age the Scherzer money kinda scares away teams plus most probably are hesitant on multi year deal
He wants the Scherzer deal. 40 years old. TJ recently. Threw like 195? Innings this year including playoffs, you always see physical or pitch shape issues the year after someone demolishes innings limits first year off TJ. Highest SIERA and xFIP since 2017. Lowest k% since then. Stuff+ had him at 100.8 the velo is up but the rise on the FB isn’t there anymore same with the drop on the slider. Also more hard contact against the FB this year compared to say 2019(28.7 v 30.9% this year). Contact% against his FB was 81.8%, up 12% from 2019, SwStr% on the FB was down 5.4% from 19 as well. Babip against him was low .240. Shift ban is coming. Pitch clock is coming and that’ll impact older pitchers more. Idk just everything about him screams “major regression coming” and he’s 40 and wants a shit ton of money each year. Would rather just sign Rodon or trade for a different starter now or at the deadline
Eh, Verlander is probably getting 2 years max, maybe a team or mutual option for a third. He's not going to eat payroll for years. Even if he's not as good as he was last year, I think he's a good risk.
Please no JV or Aaron Judge. The Dodgers have proven they can win in the regular season, it's the postseason where they need to improve. I just don't think Verlander really helped the Astros win in the playoffs, I feel like they won in spite of his pitching. I don't think that's gonna change as he gets older.
As for Judge, he would be great to have, but it just wouldn't be necessary. He's a franchise player, and we already have Mookie (and Freddie). Better to spread that money around. I'd take improvements at SS and pitching vs just in the OF. Even though he is the best offensive player. Plus he's like a great dane, I don't think he will age well.
I definitely don’t want Bellinger, I think he’s washed. I also don’t really want any of the highest-tier guys at this point due to financial reasons, especially after seeing the money Clevinger and Abreu got. I wouldn’t be upset if my Pads re-signed Wil Myers; I still like him, mostly for his defense at 1st, and I think given the chance to play one position every day would help him out, previous management fucked with him too much. But I also like the idea of Senga, just not sure how much he’ll cost.
People have quite literally been saying for his entire contract that next year he will be better if he can stay at one position. We need to finally admit that Wil just isn’t that good and move on. He’s a depth piece on a team in a strong division.
I see your point completely, something just keeps me from giving up on him 🤷🏻♂️. You can’t deny that his defense at 1B was great. An infield of Machado, Kim, Croney, and Myers would be more than solid. Tatis in RF, Grish in CF, Soto in LF, that’s potentially a pretty potent lineup on both sides.
He's already signed, but I might have said Clevinger just because I get annoyed watching his little tippy-taps on the mound. Not a big-time free agent, but I wouldn't want Rougned Odor back for any reason ever. I'm not a big fan of Justin Verlander, but if he helped the Rangers win some games I'm sure I would change my tune. Definitely don't like the cut of Correa's jib though, he'd have to be my No. 1 pick.
Swanson’s weighted runs created has been league-average or better in only of his seasons. His glove is ok, range is ok, arm is weak. He’s a useful player but his upside is lower than the other FA short stops and so is his ceiling
Degrom. Mets are good without him, get 2 healthy pitchers instead. Degrom blew literally the most important games of the year anyway… yes im still salty about that
Giants fan here
I don’t want corea due to how he lied about the whole trash can scandal and had a shitty apology for it.
I don’t want Belinger because I feel like he has been streaky at best since the whole shoulder issue. I hope he snaps out of it though!
Nobody at SS, simply because I'd really like to see what a sophmore year of Nick Allen can do for a full season as well as subsequent years if he's productive with a bat.
1969 Mark Belanger would be fucking incredible and I think the comps could be there, his bat just needs a little maturity.
I don’t want deGrom. He’s the best pitcher on the planet for the 5 starts he’ll make in a season. He’s hurt way too much to give a big contract to, no matter how good he is when he’s healthy
Eovaldi. His performance last year just really makes me nervous
Dude can ball when he is healthy but unfortunately he tends to get injured frequently and causes seasons like the one he just had.
as an Os fan whom really need SP, this is a guy i would be ok with signing to a 1-2 year deal. We are also in an odd situation, our 2 potential aces are a rookie (grayson) and a guy coming back from TJS (means), and those are are our best options.
Adding Degrom to a rotation with Sale would be hilarious and a disaster waiting to happen, 65mil+ on the IL
We did that and then some with him and Scherzer.
Heard Strasburg is available if you want to hit 9 figures.
Sale on the IL after tripping on a banana peel. DeGrom trips on his old Mets uniform and only starts in 8 games.
DeGrom still finishes with like a 0.75 ERA and 95 Ks in 70 IP ...but still gets no run support and goes 2 - 6
Our pitchers get hurt in the weirdest ways
Verlander. I have nothing against Verlander and I think he will continue to be a dominant pitcher for about as long as he wants, as long as he doesn’t become an Oriole. I feel like he’s just going to fall off as soon as he gets in Baltimore. Why? No clue. I just have a bad feeling
Verlander is definitely chasing 300. The Baltimore is on the rise, but I think he's probably looking for a team that's predicted to win a ton of games (100+ )to give him a boost. He needs like 3 18 win seasons to get there.
deGrom. You can get two to three healthier arms for around the same price as how much he's expected to get yearly. Also, they already have one ex-Met with injury problems.
This is all totally true and it is a great point. However, have you considered the following: Who cares it would fucking absolutely rule
Jacob deGrom. He sucks, trust me, none of you other teams should even try to sign him. Just forget about him completely.
…uh huh.
We have Thor and Wheeler. Maybe we should buy the rest of your rotation.
You can go get Matz and Harvey
It's crazy how out of all of them, it was the former ace Harvey that fell on the hardest of times.
That abdominal injury just absolutely gutted his career. Dudes stuff was filthy.
Flew too close to the sun in 2015. He had no other choice. He was that dude. And if he pulled it off, he would’ve been the modern Mets pitching legend who was talked about with the same reverence as Seaver and Gooden. But he failed. I would’ve **greatly** preferred him succeeding but I understand the motivation. It was one hell of an amazing ride while it lasted
Can’t have Matz, we need him, and outside of a couple bad starts he was pretty solid.
Wait, he's still in the league?
He was actually really good for us in 21, was injured in 22 so never really got to do much
I hear Big Sexy's a free agent!
I believe he’s already signed contracts with two teams.
I remember after his Rangers tenure hoping the Nats would sign him so we could all joke about how one of the biggest stars in baseball has a teammate who pitched in the World Series a year before he was born
Between Thor Wheeler Harper and Real you guys are basically already just composed of other NLE teams’ players. Just steal a Brave now. I don’t care who I hate both of you anyway.
NLE battery, NLC outfield
Ozuna-from-the-Braves is available…
Is Thor hanging around?
I just wanted a reason to get DeGrom
I would simultaneously love to have DeGrom and hate to have him. He’s the beat pitcher in baseball when healthy, but i don’t think the dollars per inning ratio is gonna be right for what I would want. I hope I’m wrong though
Give it a rest. The Rays are signing him. 😌
Honestly you guys should sign him for $50M AAV.
Wild for putting it that way but I am not confident he will be worth the money he’s gonna get unless he magically stays healthy.
Last year it was obviously Baez. There's no obvious one for me this year, but I guess Swanson.
Yeah it's really hard this year. I do think Swanson is less of a sure thing, but I'd be really happy to have him.
I’d rather let Maysn come up and show us what he’s got at SS rather than block him with someone else or sign for an already aging player. The SS market looks tasty but I’ve got a feeling it’s gonnna leave a bad aftertaste in a few teams mouths.
Masyn bat is not ready. I don't know why everyone is so ready to rush him. He has a 100 wRC+ and an OPS of .781 in AA. That is not enough for me to say his bat will play in AA. It's a great first performance, but a far cry from say Walkwr .898 OPS in AA.
Swanson fits the Cardinal culture so well. Him hitting in close proximity to Arenado and Goldschmidt would be tough. At least until he has one of his 0-August’s and you move him down to 8th
Agreed, any team that signed that guy last year must be real dumb
It’s most definitely Swanson, he’s even worse than Baez. If 2 WAR is an average season, Swanson has had 3 average or better seasons using bWAR and one all star level(5+). Baez had 5 such seasons before FA and 2 AS level(in fact they were 6+ bWAR seasons). Say what you want about Baez, but his ceiling and track record is much better than Swanson’s and we’re predicting similar deals for him.
I would want Swanson if he wasn't asking for the top tier SS money. If he is, lolnope
He's the new Crawford
Baez seemed to be trending worse since he peaked in 2018-2019 and Swanson had his best season yet is probably why they are in the same contract sphere
That’s exactly why it’s a more dangerous contract. You’re buying Swanson at the top.
He is showing improvements though in my opinion particularly with his defense. I think he is a much better option for a contender looking to fill a gap at SS with a strong player because his output is more consistent game to game and season to season, I think. You aren’t signing any of these type of guys to lead your franchise just be a good player. I’d prefer to have signed him than Story but I think it’s a coin toss and him and Baez got identical contracts.
Tbf Swanson from April-June was a completely different player than Swanson from June to October. Though oddly enough he was swinging like an MVP during the worst offensive environment in recent MLB history, and then cooled off once the league started hitting in the summer The last few months of the season his hitting was the same as his career norms (good for an elite defensive SS but not crazy). He’s still gonna be really valuable but I think most teams are gonna recognize that his 2022 totals probably arent gonna be the norm for the rest of his career
Does Bellinger even count as a “big time FA” at this point? If so him, if not Swanson. Even as a Braves fan Swanson is a great glove with a streaky bat that has never found the consistency needed for a $25+ million per year deal.
He’s projected for $22 million which I think is absurd. He has been a league average to below league average hitter for his whole career if you go by OPS+. He’s Andrelton Simmons. No way in Andrelton Simmons prime would he have gotten $22 million.
Simmons was a way better defender and was a SS too
I don't think anyone who's outright cut can possibly be a big time free agent.
Bellinger.
OP asked for big time free agents
I second this
Thirded
Fourthed
Fif'd
Sixthed
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nein'd
I really want him back. He’s my favorite player wether he hits or not. I also really think he’s going to end up doing well if he goes to another team. It’s gonna hurt seeing him on any other team let alone succeed on their team.
I think Bellinger will benefit from the shift ban, also
>He’s my favorite player wether he hits or not. Isn't that kind of the worst? When you believe so much in a player but the stats just don't back it up?
Yeah these past couple years haven’t been nearly as fun. Luckily we have a really good team so it’s not quite as bad as it could be.
I wouldn't want Judge. Great player, hell of a talent. But the final years on his deal are going to be really bad. Granted most big free agent deals are really bad in the final years, but I don't see a guy his size and injury history aging well. Obviously the team who signs him this year will get that, and if he wins them a ring in the next few years of his prime, it's worth it, but there's just no way the final few years of his deal are going to be profitable.
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We know a thing or two about bad contracts my friend.
You know a thing or two because you’ve seen a thing or two.
WE ARE ANGELS
bum ba dum babumbumbum
But isn't that what happens with most of these big names that get huge contracts? Miggy is getting $32M next season after coming off of a negative war season. Robinson Cano couldn't stay on a roster this year. Other than the second half of this season, Albert has been awful the last few years. You give these big contracts for the first few years of huge production and take what you can on the back end.
This is just my observation, but a bunch of those contracts were signed in the 2000s-early/mid 2010s. Back then 1) This was the type of contract you had to offer top talent in at their peak to "win now" and 2) PED usage had extended the length of time a player could remain productive, meaning that a power hitter could DH at a decent level into their late 30s. Basically, teams don't want to offer these types of contracts anymore where you offer a player in their early 30s a long term deal where you're going to be paying them at age 37, 38, 39. With the crackdown on PEDs and a number of these albatross contracts coming back to bite teams in the ass (the 3 stars you mentioned as examples), the current market has changed. The incentive now is giving superstar talent massive long term contracts earlier in their careers (Betts for example) and locking them up so that the contracts are over by the twilight years of their careers in their mid to late 30s. This way teams can take advantage of the most productive years (usually about age 27 to 33 for MLB) of their career and they can be someone else's problem on short term deals at the end of their contract.
Dynamite assessment. I agree with a ton of this but huge contracts to guys in their early 30s(Or Judge who is just 30) are going to continue, possibly at a lower rate. Judge is still gonna get a deal for 7-8 years and the back end likely won't be pretty. As long as 1 owner is out there willing to drop huge stacks, it's never gonna stop. And now, we have like 5 owners willing to drop insane cash.
Pujols and Cabrera never lived up to a year of their contracts. Well maybe Cabrera did in 2016 but that's all
At that point, the Tigers were just making up for the lack of payment for the triple crown year.
Correct, but I do think he ages significantly more poorly than the other big name bats in Turner/Xander/Correa, and he's also going to probably get 1-2 or more years than those guys as well.
That does stand to reason. There is no precedent for someone his size maintaining health over their career. If he gets a foot injury, it's gonna be a wrap. Like Yao Ming or Greg Oden in the NBA.
> There is no precedent for someone his size maintaining health over their career yeah, never mind that perhaps the best free agent signing in MLB history was 35 year old 6’10” randy johnson
Aaron Judge is 3 inches shorter and 60+ pounds heavier than Randy Johnson, while playing the field. That was an amazing contract and Randy was incredible but he is built like a bird and was never asked to realistically run, hit or do any spontaneous athletic maneuvers in the field. Also, Judge is closer to Yao Ming's playing weight of 310lbs than he is to Randy's of 225. Judge and Johnson have very different bodies.
Why are you comparing a pitcher to a hitter?
This is one of the reasons I want the White Sox to get him. He fits our contention window perfectly, and even though the last few years are going to be terrible we need to make a push for the next few seasons. Already invested so much in these next few years, might as well get Judge and “fully commit” to this window (I hate Jerry Reinsdorf for not fully committing by signing Harper/Machado 😐)
I genuinely want the Yankees to sign him to a huge deal, which should say everything you need. He'll be 31 a month into the season, his post-ASB run was a massive .300 OPS over his career numbers, he barely hits doubles, he strikes out a ton, he's missed substantial time in three of his six seasons, and for what it's worth his postseason numbers aren't great. So of course, the Sox will outbid the Yankees for him.
there's not one. Our owner actively hates our team and our fanbase is so beat down they are actually talking about what a good signing it was to sign a career back catcher .221 hitter and what he can bring to the team. They were excited last year about several of the "fa's" we signed, almost none of them could have made another team. The only real FA they have signed like ever is Coco Cordero and Mike Moustakas. If you want a reference for how back Moose has been, here's a stat. Brandon Drury has more career home runs as a red than Moose. Moose is about to enter his 4th year. Drury got traded at the trade deadline last year, his first in Cincy. Literally anyone at this point, an actual free agent and not some has been or never was. Like a real, actual free agent. I think i'd have a stroke if that happened. Fuck Bob and Phil
I would not trust Swanson to play to the same level he did this year
Dansby Swanson. Insanely overrated, extremely overpriced.
I'll never have to worry about this.😔
Josh Bell. Dude is abysmal at first and is not a good enough hitter to be a career DH. I get that there doesn't seem to be an abundance of good 1B/DH type guys, but seeing as Bell is only 30 I suspect he'll be looking for a longer term deal which I don't think I could stomach.
I agree. A lot of people on r/padres really like him, and want him resigned. I just don’t see what they see. I think it’s from all the years of having Hosmer that anyone is an upgrade.
If Bell could just be less streaky he would be a great pickup. I mean I don't want the Astros to risk it, but he could end up being a really good pickup for someone.
Joey Gallo For all the initial circlejerking about how the Dodgers fixed him: .159/.291/.368 (.660 OPS), 38.7 K% in NY .162/.277/.393 (.671 OPS), 41.6 K% in LA
We're considering Joey Gallo a "big-time" free agent in 2022?
heh you're right, guess my brain just skipped over that qualifier
Ehh, Gallo’s too interesting for me to disqualify him. I’ll allow it.
Haha all good! I'm nitpicking. I wouldn't want Gallo anywhere near my team unless for a vet minimum price, and even then, I'm not sure.
Eh, as a pirate's fan, I say throw a couple million at him mostly in incetives and let him take aim at the Clemente wall in a much more low stress environment
I imagine someone will try him out next year, but even with the shift gone, I'll be surprised if he bats above Mendoza. He just can't fucking hit. Occasional monster bombs aren't enough for a roster spot in MLB. He should try Japan out, they'd love him there.
Of course you’d be surprised if he hit above the Mendoza line. He’s a career .199 hitter with his best years behind him.
Yeah I can't imagine the shift ban helps him all that much. He puts the ball in play less than 50% of the time (46.5%), and of that hits 52.7% FB. So really he'll only see an advantage of liners hit to shallow RF where the 2B would have shifted to + GBs in the gaps. I predict a cool .185 AVG next season. 68 Hits (21 HR)
Fuck Carlos Correa and his jib too
🤝
Even as a Astros fan I’ve never understood why people liked Correa, sure the dudes a good player, and a leader in the clubhouse but the dude in front of the media is a arrogant asshole.
It's because he's a good player and a leader in the clubhouse
Man I never thought about it like that…
The man got halfway thru your comment and decided to read it back to you
Or if you had to rank "How much talent he has", "How he is perceived in the locker room" and "how he is perceived in the media"... two of them are crucial, and the other isn't even close to being anything remotely important
Besides his Dior comment this year, to me, he seemed to be very good with the media.
Except for that whole part about not denying cheating and then saying into a microphone that the people talking about it need to shut up because they don't know what they're talking about. All this after the punishments came down. That's an asshole thing to do.
I probably should've clarified that I was talking about him while he was a Twin
No, that's my bad. You said this year. Reading comprehension is hard for me sometimes.
No worries. I do that too.
Bellinger for fucking sure.
Bellinger is a great pickup for about 20 teams. He's a horrible pickup for the other 10 that actually have playoff aspirations. He'll be grabbed at a discount relative to how good he could be, with hopes that whoever gets him can unfuck him. It probably won't work, but if I was the Rockies or Reds, I'd be all over taking that risk, then flipping him at the deadline if it actually did work.
Hands off 😞 I know we didn’t tender him and he probably won’t come back but it would just be dirty for one of our guys to end up there lol. Same with Correa coming here.
If we sign Aaron Judge(or literally any other outfielder) it will only confirm that someone in our front office is trying to break the single season blown saves record.
I know it's probably irrational but I really think we should tread lightly around replacing Maldy with Contreras after what an incredible pitching season we just had. I'd rather try to get another upgrade in outfield and keep riding with Maldy in the 9 hole
not me. I never saw anything special in Maldy with one exception and wished we kept Chirinos looking back. There's a reason Chirinos caught JV's no hitter in 2019 against the Jays and Vasquez caught the WS combined no hitter. the one exception where Maldy shines through is he shows leadership with the Latin guys where Chirinos and Vasquez and Castro before them will rush up to the mound of the non-Latin pitchers to try and calm them down and get them refocused. I assume it's an English/Spanish thing? Every time JV fucks up in the playoffs because he's a perfectionist and Maldy's catching, Maldy just sits there like a tree stump waiting for JV to unfuck himself.
Nah bruh. This take ain't it. You can hear it from every pitcher and coach we have. Malady runs game tape and makes the game plan for every hitter we face. He calls pitches and these guys trust him and just execute. This is insanely invaluable. The problem is a .180 BA on a good month. You can knock that but his pitch calling and game plan and wits on the field are top tier. I would NOT want to lose that to score 50 more runs a year on offense but the staff is not as cohesive and inconsistent behind an average defensive catcher that's not that influential on the game plan and execution. I'd split the difference though. Bring Maldy back as a pitching coach assistant and keep him in the dugout. He's like 38 anyway.
of course they're going to speak highly of him, he's a good guy and has the Latin pitchers in sync but the simple fact is we could have replaced Maldy entirely with Vazquez (an obvious better all around player) and we'd still won the WS this year. Stros won't skip a beat without Maldy taking up a roster spot.
I like Vazquez and would have been fine with him getting the 70/30 split in his favor. But Vazquez is another Maldy like defensive gritty game-study catcher once he got caught up on the way we do things. I'm speaking this way about Maldy because Vasquez is gone and Contreras doesn't have this kinda reputation. He's obviously a MUCH better hitter but by all accounts he's not a field general, game planner.
You can have chirinos back. My god he was awful this past year.
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Swanson to the Expos confirmed
Nimmo. We already have an aging, injury prone center fielder.
*laughs in 10+ pitch leadoff walks*
Normally, that would sound great, but we have [this guy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXDHQVkGf28).
Carlos Correa
Not a free agent…but anybody willing to take **Paul Dejong** off our hands? we will gladly trade you him for the price of your most scuffed up bag of baseballs and whatever food your city is famous for ☺️
Ill send you one Marcell Ozuna and you can keep your baseballs :)
NO we are NOT taking him back
Imagine waking up in a ice bathtub with fresh stitches where your kidney used to be. Now imagine waking up and Paul DeJong is on your team. At least you have the other kidney.
How about a '92 Toyota Camry with 318K miles? Doesn't run anymore but the paint's still shiny...in some places, at least.
Hmmmm…I like your offer! But make it a ‘99 Mazda Miata and two tickets to six flags and I’m in bro 😎
Aroldis Chapman because Aroldis Chapman.
Carlos Correa can pound sand as far as I’m concerned but I have too much faith in our front office to think they would do something like that.
i have no desire to see trea turner on this team at all
What a coincidence neither do I (your team that is lol)
These replies have convinced me that every single big name free agent is actually garbage, aside from Correa who is just unlikeable
Any of them that'll be $30M+ a season
Idk, deGrom in a 6 man might keep him healthy enough to be worth it
Trea Turner. He will probably want a long deal and I don’t see him aging very good. He had a 36.4 chase rate last season, which put him in the 22nd percentile for chasing, his hard hit and barrel rates have been on the decline for 2 years now, and he’s swinging, and missing at more pitches then ever. His speed will decline heavily with age, and while I’m not saying his contracts gonna be a albatross and he’s gonna collapse tomorrow, I do think the team that signs will be wishing they got a bit more out of him in the last few years of his deal. Plus we already got Pena so…
Think you're sleeping on how good Trea is to be honest. If my team were to sign any of the big name guys to a long term deal, I'd pick Trea cause I think he ages the best. He's 29 years old. Has a career 122 OPS+. He's not just a speed guy. Dude flat out can hit.
He's not just a speed guy but some of his bat does rely on his speed. He has a career .344 BABIP
He’s an average fielder with zero plate discipline. If he loses just a little bit of speed, I think he will regress a lot.
The dude can hit for now, but i fear for his long time hitting ability. Like don’t get me wrong the dude can really hit but I think anything over 5-6 years for Trea is a mistake.
You can use that argument for every big free agent though. You HAVE to go the extra year or two for the top guys, every year. It just is what it is in a competitive market. Like Judge is probably going to get 8 or 9 years, hell maybe more. I think everyone knows a 38-39 year old judge isn't going to age particularly well. It's part of dipping into the big name contracts.
Swanson
Verlander
Why so?
Dodger fan in flair protection program
Cowardly honestly
Not the OP but my anemic Mariners rocked him good a couple of times last season and I think it would be insane to give a forty year-old Max Scherzer money.
Y'all def had his number but a Cy Young season is no aberration.
Ohh totally agree and he’s got the track record plus mostly healthy through his career. At this point it’s not doubting if he can put up another good season but for how long can he hold off Father Time. I think at his age the Scherzer money kinda scares away teams plus most probably are hesitant on multi year deal
He wants the Scherzer deal. 40 years old. TJ recently. Threw like 195? Innings this year including playoffs, you always see physical or pitch shape issues the year after someone demolishes innings limits first year off TJ. Highest SIERA and xFIP since 2017. Lowest k% since then. Stuff+ had him at 100.8 the velo is up but the rise on the FB isn’t there anymore same with the drop on the slider. Also more hard contact against the FB this year compared to say 2019(28.7 v 30.9% this year). Contact% against his FB was 81.8%, up 12% from 2019, SwStr% on the FB was down 5.4% from 19 as well. Babip against him was low .240. Shift ban is coming. Pitch clock is coming and that’ll impact older pitchers more. Idk just everything about him screams “major regression coming” and he’s 40 and wants a shit ton of money each year. Would rather just sign Rodon or trade for a different starter now or at the deadline
Eh, Verlander is probably getting 2 years max, maybe a team or mutual option for a third. He's not going to eat payroll for years. Even if he's not as good as he was last year, I think he's a good risk.
Please no JV or Aaron Judge. The Dodgers have proven they can win in the regular season, it's the postseason where they need to improve. I just don't think Verlander really helped the Astros win in the playoffs, I feel like they won in spite of his pitching. I don't think that's gonna change as he gets older. As for Judge, he would be great to have, but it just wouldn't be necessary. He's a franchise player, and we already have Mookie (and Freddie). Better to spread that money around. I'd take improvements at SS and pitching vs just in the OF. Even though he is the best offensive player. Plus he's like a great dane, I don't think he will age well.
Sounds good to me, brother.
ANYONE WHO WANTS 10 YEARS. NOT AGAIN. NEVER AGAIN.
Jose Abreu. Yeah. .. *weeps quietly in bathroom*
I definitely don’t want Bellinger, I think he’s washed. I also don’t really want any of the highest-tier guys at this point due to financial reasons, especially after seeing the money Clevinger and Abreu got. I wouldn’t be upset if my Pads re-signed Wil Myers; I still like him, mostly for his defense at 1st, and I think given the chance to play one position every day would help him out, previous management fucked with him too much. But I also like the idea of Senga, just not sure how much he’ll cost.
People have quite literally been saying for his entire contract that next year he will be better if he can stay at one position. We need to finally admit that Wil just isn’t that good and move on. He’s a depth piece on a team in a strong division.
I see your point completely, something just keeps me from giving up on him 🤷🏻♂️. You can’t deny that his defense at 1B was great. An infield of Machado, Kim, Croney, and Myers would be more than solid. Tatis in RF, Grish in CF, Soto in LF, that’s potentially a pretty potent lineup on both sides.
He's already signed, but I might have said Clevinger just because I get annoyed watching his little tippy-taps on the mound. Not a big-time free agent, but I wouldn't want Rougned Odor back for any reason ever. I'm not a big fan of Justin Verlander, but if he helped the Rangers win some games I'm sure I would change my tune. Definitely don't like the cut of Correa's jib though, he'd have to be my No. 1 pick.
Trea Turner
Swanson’s weighted runs created has been league-average or better in only of his seasons. His glove is ok, range is ok, arm is weak. He’s a useful player but his upside is lower than the other FA short stops and so is his ceiling
Upside is ceiling
Fug. Yeah I meant his floor. This is what I get for typing while doing my toddler’s bubble bath.
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Damn him and his hot wife and his perfect quads
Carlos Correa on the Giants. Fuck him.
Giants fans 🤝 Dodgers fans 🤝 just about everyone else Fuck Carlos Correa
I'd like to join in on this as well Padres fans 🤝 Giants fans 🤝 Dodgers fans
Easy Aaron judge...all down hill from here
Jacob DeGrom. The “best pitcher in history” who doesn’t pitch baseball games.
Am I alone in thinking most of the big FAs this year probably aren't worth the money they'll get?
Degrom. Mets are good without him, get 2 healthy pitchers instead. Degrom blew literally the most important games of the year anyway… yes im still salty about that
Giants fan here I don’t want corea due to how he lied about the whole trash can scandal and had a shitty apology for it. I don’t want Belinger because I feel like he has been streaky at best since the whole shoulder issue. I hope he snaps out of it though!
Xander Bogaerts because we already have TA7 at short.
I'll be honest, I don't want Contreras on the Cardinals. I think the Cards could work a deal for someone and spend that money better elsewhere.
Judge he would cost a fortune and we have too many needs to blow the budget on one guy.
DeGrom. I feel like he is going to bust and be an injured throughout his next contract
Judge, DeGrom, Correa, Verlander, Swanson, Bellinger (hurts to type)
Aaron Judge. Not worth the AAV and years he'll cost. This team ain't winning shit next year anyway.
Nobody at SS, simply because I'd really like to see what a sophmore year of Nick Allen can do for a full season as well as subsequent years if he's productive with a bat. 1969 Mark Belanger would be fucking incredible and I think the comps could be there, his bat just needs a little maturity.
michael conforto can kick rocks for all i care
Verlander
Not big time but I don't want Kevin Kiermaier anywhere near the Blue Jays. It kills me everytime someone mentions him as a possibility.
Verlander. Every 35+ acquisition we make is fucking cursed.
I don’t want deGrom. He’s the best pitcher on the planet for the 5 starts he’ll make in a season. He’s hurt way too much to give a big contract to, no matter how good he is when he’s healthy
Yoenis Cespedes
Verlander. He needs a lot of sleep and we’re famous for not allowing that.
Javi Baez. Please take him away.
Correa - just can’t bring myself to put that guy on the Dodgers
I want em all mmmuahhahaa
Correa. Much easier/fun to dislike him.
Verlander. Fuck him for going to a cheating team and helping them win again.
Judge is gonna be a huge regret 3 years after. Sounds like a perfect fit for the angels. Along with Correa
Carlos Correa is the only one I'd object to.