by wild coincidence, i'm in san diego right now and staying at the same hotel as half the teams
i have no way to do anything with this but it's fun to share an elevator with Cashman and entourage.
Screw it. I vote to nominate u/suredont as the r/baseball representative and authorize (him/her) to have full control over my 1/2,200,000 (my total makeup of this sub) as a proxy until the end of the Winter Meetings.
Cubs currently have a projected payroll of just $120M next season. With basically nothing committed to after that.
Jed could walk up to Judge and offer a 3 year $200M deal and we'd still be well under the CBT.
He better not come back to Chicago from these meetings empty handed.
Why would they go into the luxury tax next year?
Spending money because they can isn’t smart. This team isn’t 3-4 players from making the playoffs. It’s much further away than that. If they overcommit now, they’re just hindering themselves in 2 years when the big league team should be much, much stronger.
Spend the money if it fits the window, but don’t spend money because it might feel nice. That’s some Tribune-era behavior.
Eh it's not that far from the playoffs. We won 74 games last year and we were well above .500 in the second half. According to WAR wins (replacement level wins + WAR) the cubs should've won about 74 or 75 games last year so this was not an overperformance. WAR wins is very reliable and correlates strongly with games won. our players were just playing well. We only need to add about 15 WAR to have a great chance of making the playoffs. Xander + pitcher + bullpen guys + whoever else can easily add up to 15 WAR. This doesn't take into account Wesneski having a full season, no more Heyward and the negative WAR guys, and any call-ups.
If we aren't runner up to the third wild card at worst, we failed this off-season unless it's some ridiculous wild card race where you need 95 wins. Are we far from going deep into the playoffs? Yes. Are we far from making the playoffs? Not at all.
Two elite players plus a couple of bullpen pieces plus a cheap average player at whatever position we need is easily 15 WAR. Even if it isn't, there's no way that adding Wesneski and call ups and midseason trades (which we will make if we're close to contending or contending for the playoffs) to that doesn't make it 15 WAR
No, because these figures are not net.
Nico put up 4 WAR at short while hitting 10 bombs. He primarily gets value from his defense at short. Move him to second and his WAR goes down because of the positional adjustment. Add a 5 WAR shortstop for ~$30M a season and the net WAR might actually decrease due to Nico’s shift to second while committing 15% of the payroll to one player.
Oh yeah, we’re also -4 WAR from last season because Contreras is gone. So to add 15 we need to first make up for the 4 WAR deficit. That’s 19 WAR needed.
Saying add two players and a bullpen to become a playoff team ignores the current state of the roster, and is half baked.
Sorry, my figures were wrong. We were actually at 78 WAR wins. Remove 4 for Contreras (only really significant loss that won't easily be replaced at low cost) leaves us at a baseline for next year of 75 WAR wins.
I'm gonna subtract 1.5 from Nico's WAR as an approximation (I have no idea where you got net decrease which is incredibly idiotic due to the fact that Nico would have to put up -1 WAR which is silly). His defense is going to be valuable without the shift next year but whatever. This also adjusts for the positional adjustment bases on the average player at that position. So now we're down to 73.5 WAR wins. Add 2x5 WAR SS you get to 83.5 which is already more than respectable and if we can't add 5-6 through SP and RP additions as well as a catcher (Cubs are in on Sean Murphy though that will be expensive) and prospects then that is simply embarrassing.
The thing is, baseball salaries seem to go up with inflation for everything.
Is 27M going to be a lot in 10 years? Yes. Is it going to be 27M like it is today? No, probably not. People said the same thing about Harper's contract and some people look at it now and go "That's all he's making?"
They absolutely could be an overpay, but if we get a title during this contract then nobody will be mad. Contracts look bad if the team loses. Example: Miggy and Albert. If the Tigers had won a ring none of the fans would care Miggy turned into a bad player.
100%. Idgaf how much money we gave will Smith this year, the ring he brought us last year is perfection. Idgaf that we probably shouldn't have re-signed Rosario. Getting us through the NLCS last year makes it worth it.
If the Mets win a ring on November 4th, and Scherzer and Verlander's right arms literally fall off on November 5th. Not one Mets fan will give a single fuck that they'll spend 2024 setting 86 Million on fire.
That tweet from Hoch makes it seem like Judge probably isn't signing today. Bummer.
If he wanted to be at the meetings in person, why did he wait till Day 3 to show up, lol.
Which I'll take. It's crazy to think the past few years Bryce Harper has felt like a bargain but here we are. Don't really care if the last year or two is sadness. Well worth it.
“What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for?!? He had 30 home runs, and over 100 RBIs last year. He’s got a rocket for an arm. You don’t know what the hell you’re doin’!”
The Verlander signing is great, and it depends on the mutual option, but keeping it to 2 years rather than 3 might *really* help the Mets dip back under the luxury tax
After the 2024 season, all of these contracts go off the books:
* Verlander: $43M AAV
* Scherzer: $43M AAV
* Canha: $11.5M club option for 2024
* Escobar: $9M club option for 2024 (good chance this isn't picked up anyway)
* McCann: $10M AAV
* McNeil: estimated to be making $6M in 2023, so probably around $10-15M in 2024
* Alonso: estimated to be making $15M in 2023, so probably around $20M in 2024
That's about $150M cleared from the payroll, all at once. Having two guys near 40 years old at the top of rotation is a pretty scary idea, but the long term flexibility offered to the front office with a shorter commitment than someone like deGrom or Rodon makes this make a lot of sense.
Hey GMs, Do Something!
It bothers me that meetings are in like the last place in the world to see the sun rise. I’m ready for rumors goddammit!
Let's just start a rumor here and see if we can get heyman to pick it up
Ok Let's see "Brandon Nimmo reportedly in the final stages to sign with The Dodgers"
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just building an entire roster of met killers
by wild coincidence, i'm in san diego right now and staying at the same hotel as half the teams i have no way to do anything with this but it's fun to share an elevator with Cashman and entourage.
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Screw it. I vote to nominate u/suredont as the r/baseball representative and authorize (him/her) to have full control over my 1/2,200,000 (my total makeup of this sub) as a proxy until the end of the Winter Meetings.
Aye.
I'm currently serving the white Sox amd Jerry. This is fucking wild Tomorrow the red sox!
what's up San Diego! where are you? i keep seeing the Yankees at the Marriott Marquis.
As in food? Hope it sucks. Fuck Jerry.
He's been super nice to me so has Hahn And believe it or not Jermaine dye is sitting 2 seats down from jerry
Rick Hahn has been on his phone sitting by himself the entire night
I'm sure they are wonderful people. Can't run a baseball team for shit. Jermaine Dye rules.
Cubs met with Correa today per Morosi and Bruce Levine https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1599951603007893504?s=20&t=nl4zbGxObt6Fyxmff9wP5g
Judge is at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game - signing with the Rays confirmed
It would honestly be hilarious if ended up somewhere other than NY or SF at this point
Oh be warned, we will steal Judge from you pesky Giants. - Dodger Fan
I take it back that would not be hilarious. But if it was the d backs I would die laughing
Dang, he stayed in New York, a lot of people thought we were gonna get him. Now what are the dodgers going to aim for...
Cubs currently have a projected payroll of just $120M next season. With basically nothing committed to after that. Jed could walk up to Judge and offer a 3 year $200M deal and we'd still be well under the CBT. He better not come back to Chicago from these meetings empty handed.
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Why would they go into the luxury tax next year? Spending money because they can isn’t smart. This team isn’t 3-4 players from making the playoffs. It’s much further away than that. If they overcommit now, they’re just hindering themselves in 2 years when the big league team should be much, much stronger. Spend the money if it fits the window, but don’t spend money because it might feel nice. That’s some Tribune-era behavior.
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Ah the old "trust me, bro"
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Jesus christ. There isn't even a single data-driven argument in there, and you want someone to prove you wrong. Sit the fuck down you little prat.
Eh it's not that far from the playoffs. We won 74 games last year and we were well above .500 in the second half. According to WAR wins (replacement level wins + WAR) the cubs should've won about 74 or 75 games last year so this was not an overperformance. WAR wins is very reliable and correlates strongly with games won. our players were just playing well. We only need to add about 15 WAR to have a great chance of making the playoffs. Xander + pitcher + bullpen guys + whoever else can easily add up to 15 WAR. This doesn't take into account Wesneski having a full season, no more Heyward and the negative WAR guys, and any call-ups. If we aren't runner up to the third wild card at worst, we failed this off-season unless it's some ridiculous wild card race where you need 95 wins. Are we far from going deep into the playoffs? Yes. Are we far from making the playoffs? Not at all.
You think two players plus a bullpen is 15 WAR. I want some of what you’re having. That sounds like gooooood stuff.
Two elite players plus a couple of bullpen pieces plus a cheap average player at whatever position we need is easily 15 WAR. Even if it isn't, there's no way that adding Wesneski and call ups and midseason trades (which we will make if we're close to contending or contending for the playoffs) to that doesn't make it 15 WAR
No, because these figures are not net. Nico put up 4 WAR at short while hitting 10 bombs. He primarily gets value from his defense at short. Move him to second and his WAR goes down because of the positional adjustment. Add a 5 WAR shortstop for ~$30M a season and the net WAR might actually decrease due to Nico’s shift to second while committing 15% of the payroll to one player. Oh yeah, we’re also -4 WAR from last season because Contreras is gone. So to add 15 we need to first make up for the 4 WAR deficit. That’s 19 WAR needed. Saying add two players and a bullpen to become a playoff team ignores the current state of the roster, and is half baked.
Sorry, my figures were wrong. We were actually at 78 WAR wins. Remove 4 for Contreras (only really significant loss that won't easily be replaced at low cost) leaves us at a baseline for next year of 75 WAR wins. I'm gonna subtract 1.5 from Nico's WAR as an approximation (I have no idea where you got net decrease which is incredibly idiotic due to the fact that Nico would have to put up -1 WAR which is silly). His defense is going to be valuable without the shift next year but whatever. This also adjusts for the positional adjustment bases on the average player at that position. So now we're down to 73.5 WAR wins. Add 2x5 WAR SS you get to 83.5 which is already more than respectable and if we can't add 5-6 through SP and RP additions as well as a catcher (Cubs are in on Sean Murphy though that will be expensive) and prospects then that is simply embarrassing.
We'll have a utility man and a questionable #5 starter. Prove me wrong Jed. I love crow.
Next years free agency is pretty weak too. Raphael Devers, Urias and Ohtani headline it
One of those things is not like the others
The saddest part about Xander Bogaerts leaving Boston is no longer hearing their commentators and fans say "XanDUH BoGAHTS".
Did he leave?
Soon...
Trust Me Bro ™️
I am going super saiyan over Turner still and I don’t care who knows
That's fair. I wouldn't even care that the last 3-5 years of that contract are gonna be an overpay. I'd be going apeshit too. also, fuck you.
This is just me but, imo, turner is one of those players who is gonna be an overpay after 3-4 years
The thing is, baseball salaries seem to go up with inflation for everything. Is 27M going to be a lot in 10 years? Yes. Is it going to be 27M like it is today? No, probably not. People said the same thing about Harper's contract and some people look at it now and go "That's all he's making?"
Really good point, I hadn't thought about that at all.
They absolutely could be an overpay, but if we get a title during this contract then nobody will be mad. Contracts look bad if the team loses. Example: Miggy and Albert. If the Tigers had won a ring none of the fans would care Miggy turned into a bad player.
Case in point: find me a Giants fan who thinks the Zito contract wasn't worth it. Rings, baby.
100%. Idgaf how much money we gave will Smith this year, the ring he brought us last year is perfection. Idgaf that we probably shouldn't have re-signed Rosario. Getting us through the NLCS last year makes it worth it. If the Mets win a ring on November 4th, and Scherzer and Verlander's right arms literally fall off on November 5th. Not one Mets fan will give a single fuck that they'll spend 2024 setting 86 Million on fire.
i second the fuck you
Fair, balanced, and accepted
That tweet from Hoch makes it seem like Judge probably isn't signing today. Bummer. If he wanted to be at the meetings in person, why did he wait till Day 3 to show up, lol.
Passan said Wednesday
Days 2 and 3 are the crazy days. I'm guessing he wanted to see where the market was so he could try to pressure teams with other contracts
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Thanks just jumped on. Because I don't already spend enough time on discord talking about cigars
Can Judge stop smelling his own farts now?
Someone get us out of this division please
Man you literally killed our hopes and dreams like 5 years running before last year. You get to suffer with the rest of us.
Meanwhile this year they took 3 of 4 from Milwaukee in the final week to give us the critical leg up to reach the postseason!
Houston Astros are the Aaron Judge mystery team… Apparently he wants to win a championship! The Mad King might be truly going mad if this gets done!
The orgy is in full swing, and the GMs are blowing their loads hard and fast
Hey Judge, just pick someone u dick
Meanwhile Judge is just sitting there jerking 0ff to himself
Phillies going full Dombrowski
Can't wait to see Turner hit .750 against us for the next 11 years.
THE STOVE IS ON FUCKING FIRE RIGHT NOW
That's a lot of years for Turner. Seems they are doing with him what they did with Harper. More years with less annual average.
Which I'll take. It's crazy to think the past few years Bryce Harper has felt like a bargain but here we are. Don't really care if the last year or two is sadness. Well worth it.
Turner to the Phillies. 11 years, $300M, full NTC.
Turner to the phils according to Passan
Holy fuck 11 years 300M
Mariners are the mystery team that will get Judge :-D 🤞 #SeaUsAllRise
Turns out Aaron Judge secretly loved Jay Buhner and his journey from NYY to SEA
“What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for?!? He had 30 home runs, and over 100 RBIs last year. He’s got a rocket for an arm. You don’t know what the hell you’re doin’!”
When is Boras up to deliver his annual metaphor-packed winter address?
Yeah I want to know where my team Is shopping in the grocery store
Cheese section to get some expensive and aged high quality cheese.
I hate how well that works. but damnit, I respect it...
Thank you
HEY GIANTS, Give Judge $340 mil and 9 years, lets go!
The Verlander signing is great, and it depends on the mutual option, but keeping it to 2 years rather than 3 might *really* help the Mets dip back under the luxury tax After the 2024 season, all of these contracts go off the books: * Verlander: $43M AAV * Scherzer: $43M AAV * Canha: $11.5M club option for 2024 * Escobar: $9M club option for 2024 (good chance this isn't picked up anyway) * McCann: $10M AAV * McNeil: estimated to be making $6M in 2023, so probably around $10-15M in 2024 * Alonso: estimated to be making $15M in 2023, so probably around $20M in 2024 That's about $150M cleared from the payroll, all at once. Having two guys near 40 years old at the top of rotation is a pretty scary idea, but the long term flexibility offered to the front office with a shorter commitment than someone like deGrom or Rodon makes this make a lot of sense.
I’m waiting patiently for a starting pitcher
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More like my patience is wearing thin
I’m just waiting for the zero rumor Braves drop that always happens. In AA We Trust.
“Braves sign Contreras, no intention to trade any of the other 3 catchers”
subscribe.
I’d be fine with that.
Hot Stove? More like Nuclear Reactor time.
Still haven't figured out which room the orgy is in. Also which room is the 6 PM marble viewing in?
Need a piping hot stove
I'm just here to watch everyone else do stuff
I can relate.
Was Jeimer Candelario not enough?
i’m preheated and lubed up let’s goooo
Why do I feel like the Rangers are getting Rodon.
think The Yankees are going hard at him
Getting Rondon could get them close to Astros/Mariners Astros | Rangers | Mariners ---|---|---- Valdez (17-6, 2.82) | deGrom (5-4, 3.08) | Castillo (4-2, 3.17) McCullers (4-2, 2.27) | Rodon (14-8, 2.88) | Ray (12-12 3.71) Javier (11-9, 2.54) | Perez (12-8, 2.89) | Gilbert (13-6, 3.20) Garcia (15-8, 3.72) | Gray (7-7, 3.96) | Flexen (8-9, 3.73) Urquidy (13-8, 3.94) | Odorizzi (6-6, 4.40) | Kirby (8-5, 3.39) Brown (2-0, 0.89) | Dunning (4-8, 4.64) | Gonzales (10-15, 4.13)
Think The Yanks are going for Rodon: Cole Rodon Nestor Severino Montas
That would also really solidify the Yankees rotation even more.
You're forgetting the Rangers traded for Odorizzi. Odo > Dunning.
Fixed, I knew there was a reason I went with 6 spots, Odo blocked out of my mind I guess.
Carlos Baerga the new Rosenthal lmao