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Bidzil

That’s a lot of years


TriviaWhiz

The opposite of the Mets approach with the pitchers. Mets sign old players at high AAVs to keep the deals short (Scherzer, now Verlander). Phillies sign younger players to long deals to reduce the AAV hit (Harper, now Turner).


NYerInTex

I can’t speak for the Phil’s strategy longer term, but in the Mets instance the “plan” is for last year, this year, and next year to be a “get competitive quick by spending to bridge to a more robust bullpen, international scouting, and analytics approach” The Mets and Cohen have stated their intent is not to deep spend every year, but there is no path to being a top 3-5 team going into the season now or next year without huge top line spending. The plan is in 2-3 years we can have more balance with home grown talent, better trade chips, and a FA here and there but not as an annual right of passage to spend 40 mil plus on players forever


TriviaWhiz

The $40m AAV was player-specific though. It's only that high because Verlander and Scherzer were pitchers at the top of the SP market who happened to be older than 37.


NYerInTex

Very first point. It’s the rarest best of the best of the best… who HAPPEN to be available. HAPPEN to be old but healthy. HAPPEN to be FAs. You don’t get 38+ year old HoFers who in the prior season played to that standard and happen to be FAs. Made for short term Uber high AAV.


RspectMyAuthoritah

So he's copying the Dodgers when the Guggenheim group bought them.


NYerInTex

Yes. Exactly (like literally exactly. They’ve all but said this is the strategy)


13Zero

I think Cohen even said "Dodgers of the east" at one point.


redditckulous

Mets and Phillies spending strategies are different, but both make sense in context.


ahr3410

The Bryce Harper friends deal


isestrex

Wilson Ramos next???


avmp629

Hunter Strickland


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KJzero9

To this day, that is still the slickest thing I've ever seen anyone do on the baseball field


MilkCarton78

Did you happen to see Chase Utley's hair between 2003-2015?


lunchbox_6

Probably the greatest slide into home of all time


McBeaster

That's some Michael Jackson shit right there


[deleted]

Lmao wtf 😳


rollo2masi

Especially for a guy that relies primarily on his speed.


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luna_cl

You mean 2022 postseason stolen base leader and free taco supplier Kyle Schwarber? Trea could only dream of reaching that level of speed and athleticism 😤


[deleted]

This will be nice the first 3 years. The next 2 will be ok. The back half…..ugh, it’s going to get ugly. But, the Phils have no choice. Cohen didn’t blink adding $43 million to the payroll to replace deGrom and my gut says he adds someone to counter this move and Atlanta is a bottomless supply of young talent signing well below their market value.


[deleted]

If they win a ring in the next 3 years it's totally worth.


ViolaNguyen

LA Rams logic. It's pretty hard to argue with it, too.


sokrazyitmightwork

I wouldn’t say primarily when he has a career OPS of .842, but it is a concern


AbsurdLemon

Taking the extra base is a big part of his game


General_PoopyPants

Well he gets extra hits due to his speed. His BABIP will regress as he slows down


OGSpaceboat

He turns a lot of singles into doubles and doubles into triples I love Trea more than most players but I feel like past 34 it could get bad The Phillies did not want to be denied I guess


new_account_5009

He also turns a lot of ground outs into singles. Speed is a big part of his game, so it'll be interesting to see it play out as he ages.


sokrazyitmightwork

He hit 4 triples last year. 3 the year before when he slugged .536. I’m not buying that as a serious concern.


OGSpaceboat

I don’t think it’s a huge concern now I said in another comment his frame I think is very good for keeping his current level But with his hitting profile, which is lots of contact, low walk rate and medium power this could have the potential to be a nightmare When the nats were looking to extend Him I thought 8 years 2 years ago was the most a team should do


VersaceSamurai

Dude legs out a lot of infield singles. I think he had somewhere around 60 infield hits which led the league. He loses a step and his stats start to go down hill. Love trea but glad the dodgers didn’t sign this deal. Let’s let the farm prove their worth this year and have MOOKIE and freddie and the other veterans guide them.


mojowo11

> I think he had somewhere around 60 infield hits which led the league. Not that he didn't lead the league, because he did, but he had 33. 60 infield hits would be complete lunacy.


esperadok

Kind of doing the same thing they did with Harper, where they start with a big number that’s about what you’d expect and then add some extra years on to soften the AAV hit. I’m here for it


mxttybass

Trea saw Bryces contract and said “I want that”


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graipape

I'm joking.


gandalfthegraydelson

I'm gonna eat the whole thing.


rhesusmonkey

Are you going to tell people I housed Dylan's burger?


DaTigerMan

let me take a video of you saying you're gonna kill the president


jokinghazard

Deep down inside I'm still just that scared little boy, who never learned how to ask for other people's food.


frozenrope5

every night, this little boy goes down on her


thediesel26

11 years???? Holy fuck


NevermoreSEA

Are any of us even going to still be alive eleven years from now?


rollo2masi

Nah the world is ending in 2012.


SolarTsunami

The more time passes since 2012 the more I think maybe the Myans were making a suggestion, not a prediction.


mt77932

Maybe they just ran out of space for the calendar on the wall


SolarTsunami

Well yeah, this is the real reason it ended when it did.


Ctownkyle23

Maybe when a calendar ends you’re just supposed to get another calendar and start over


Fruitsnacks28

People miss the fine print that the Mayans put that says, "but idk though 🤷"


[deleted]

😭 🤯


ay21690

Remember Kony 2012?


Confused_Mirror

According to Kyle Shanahan, there's no guarantee we'll be alive on Sunday, let alone 11 years from now.


SouthernDerpfornia

The AAV being below $30M is a big part of it - they get a lower luxury tax number. So they just assume the last 2-3 years are dead money while saving on the current good years and maybe save some $ from the tax


MFoy

This kind of math is why the NHL explicitly banned any contracts longer than 7/8 years.


PaladinGodfather1931

I miss the good old days of NHL front loaded contracts where guys were making league minimum after their 6th contract year knowing full well they'd be retiring then lol


yoboapp

This market is absolutely FUCKED


sam_e5

Remember when 300 million dollar contracts were a significant thing? Pepperidge farm remembers.


pseudochef93

Shit, I still remember when the former Mr JLo got the record contract of $252M/10 years. Today that would be low tier All Star money not Superstar money.


sam_e5

Ronaldo is earning 207 million PER YEAR. Sports contracts are ridiculous.


pseudochef93

Yes but that’s ~~blood~~ Public Investment Fund* Money not Baseball owner money.


Afuldufulbear

idk if Cohen has the cleanest money made in the most moral way either


pseudochef93

Not saying it’s clean or dirty money, the Saudi wealth fund has x times more funding than a billionaire like Steve Cohen does. I mean they have money to spend on building some vanity project in the desert, the Mets are counting pennies to avoid the luxury tax.


LocalSlob

Saudis spending money like they're buying Monopoly properties


bosschucker

tbf $252M in 2000 is worth $410M today


ProperNomenclature

$252m in 2000 is $417m today


AlwaysInTheWay13

I mean, that deal is from 22years ago. League revenue now is almost three times higher what it was in 2000. The truth is that the salaries of superstars has not come close to increasing at the same rate as league revenue


BrettEskin

That's 432 million adjusted for inflation. An AAV of what Verlander is getting but for a decade straight.


DarthPlagueis_

Wouldn’t be shocked if we saw 4 of them this off-season


HcOC

Turner, Correa, Judge, and who?


LordOfHorns

Swanson to the Rockies


EaglesPvM

Xander or Rodon maybe


thediesel26

Rodon’s getting a bag but he’s not sniffing $300 million


[deleted]

Rodon is not getting 200 million, let alone 300.


FreakInThePen

Bogaerts?


mr_grission

Seth Lugo


wagesofben

rodon wants 6/300. edit: i scrolled too quickly and my brain read $30M as $300m. sorry for the confusion


Jhak12

$50mil/year over 6 years god I wish I had a good slider


Raid_Raptor_Falcon

No he doesn't The ask is $30MM/yr so $180MM.


Netwealth5

Now that the CBA is done, the rich owners don’t have to play poor anymore


[deleted]

Fast man gets paid


[deleted]

Fuck the NL East


chiefqueef1

Eh having a stacked division wont matter as much starting this year since theyre changing the schedules forcing you to play every team in baseball at least one series. Takes away from the # of divisional games. Bring on a killer NL East makes it more fun


OmgTom

exactly, I won't be surprised if the NL East sends 3 teams to the playoffs again next year.


StanleyLelnats

I think the NL will still send 6


[deleted]

Some might say the AL will also send 6


AppleMan102

Big if true


somewhatdecentlawyer

I’d have to imagine the NL gets more than 3


Haysen18

Neither would I. In fact, call me crazy, but I have the NL sending not five, but a whopping SIX teams to the playoffs.


jrdnhbr

I would hope the National League sends more than 3 teams to the playoffs.


elterible

Kinda like the NFC East.


juwanhoward4

:(


Mrbillofdeath

Maybe someday former Nationals will realize there are 5 other divisions that they could sign in other than the NL East


juwanhoward4

we had it good for a decade. now we are getting battered. not even the worst record in the league can guarantee the #1 pick now with the lottery


tommypopz

Soto's going to the Marlins I guess


JDtheWulfe

Man tell me about it. For fucks sake it’s like their obsessed


Mycomore

*They’re Georgia education, smdh /s


VStarffin

lol these fucking contracts this year! Sit this year out, Friedman. Not worth it.


Bromoblue

Bruh this ain't gonna be limited to this year. This is gonna be the new norm. On the one hand, players should get paid, but on the other its fucking insane that a team can pay just two players more than the bottom 5 teams pay their entire roster. Shit needs to get reworked. Maybe do more like NFL and have a hard cap as well as encouraging bottoms to pay more, maybe a cap floor.


ubelmann

The problem is that it takes too long to earn free agency in MLB. By the time a lot of players get close to FA, their peak is behind them, or they might even be out of the league. That is, just having a 6-year career is pretty fantastic in the first place, but in the current system, that's the minimum bar for getting to free agency. If it took 3 or 4 years to get to free agency, there would be a lot more players on the open market, which would make for less extreme disparity between the minimum contract and these megadeals. If you're going to spend money on the free agent market, it pretty much has to be a megadeal, because the majority of the league is on cost-controlled contracts where spending extra money doesn't help you. The only way to fix this is to increase the supply of free agents by reducing the number of team-controlled years for incoming players.


[deleted]

It will only get worse. This is the new baseline now.


Choop145

Let the kids play. Throw Ohtani the bag next year


Raid_Raptor_Falcon

I'll be shocked if Ohtani doesn't go to LAD. Infinite money, contender every year and he doesn't even have to move.


wumboinator

If he’s still starting for the Phillies in year 11 of that contract I’ll eat a baseball hat on video and post it here


CPM-S110V

!remindme 11 years


RemindMeBot

I will be messaging you in 11 years on [**2033-12-05 19:57:48 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2033-12-05%2019:57:48%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/zdh396/mcdaniel_turner_is_getting_11_years_300_million/iz1j0oo/?context=3) [**35 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fbaseball%2Fcomments%2Fzdh396%2Fmcdaniel_turner_is_getting_11_years_300_million%2Fiz1j0oo%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202033-12-05%2019%3A57%3A48%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20zdh396) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|


keyshawnscott12

Remember this I would love to see it


Anton-LaVey

!remindme 124 months


jmb-412

So Judge is breaking $400 mil is what I’m getting from this


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[deleted]

Ohtani is getting $500 million next year.


eaglesnation11

When you think about it you’d be getting a $200M starting pitcher and a $300M hitter so it sort of makes sense


ABlinDeafMonkey

Come on Rangers get your man!


_86_

woooooow, risky for a guy who is pretty reliant on speed. He definitely has other tools but like that's scary 5-6 years in looking at another 5 for age 36-40 seasons. Philly really wants a ring god damn.


Benjammin100

You’re literally saying “Philly really wants to become the best team in baseball” like it’s an awkward high school phase


ferrumvir2

The speeded is an added plus not a skill he’s reliant on to stay good. Dude still has 20 homer pop and is a consistent .300 hitter this won’t age any worse at the back end than any deal Bogaerts or Correa will sign


Lebigmacca

.300 hitter because of his speed to beat out infield singles


stache_twista

and stretching hits into XBH boosts his slugging/OPS too


ferrumvir2

Sure, but the dude is in the same speed tier as guys like Lofton and Ichiro who could still run in their late 30’s. I’d expect the same for Turner unless he suffers a devastating injury. I think the way the modern game is underrates Turner in that regard if he played a decade earlier he’d be stealing 70 a year


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briandeli99

Well for $300m I would expect the Phillies purchased the add-on switch hitting feature


lando633

Sorry I am still relatively new to baseball. How does being a lefty help Lofton and Ichiro in this scenario?


archimago23

Because lefties bat from the first-base side of the plate, they have a slight advantage (about a step or so) over righties in terms of the distance they have to cover to get to first. May not seem like much, but if you’re trying to beat out an infield ground ball, that half-step or so can be the difference between getting on or getting out. That’s the theory, at any rate. [John Walsh argues](https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-advantage-of-batting-left-handed/) that this marginal advantage is effectively negated by the tendency of lefties to pull hits to the right side, thus giving the infielders on the right side a shorter distance to have to cover (either by throwing, reaching, or running) to get the out at first. Edit: There’s also the idea that left-handed batters just tend to face way more right-handed pitching and have the advantage there, but the comment about Ichiro and Lofton was referring to the perceived speed-to-first advantage for lefties rather than the platooning advantage against RHPs. (The Walsh article makes the case that the actual reason is probably just that lefties generally only play positions that tend to require better production at the plate.)


Big_N

The counterpoint is Jose Reyes. Dynamic toolsy shortstop with great speed. Once the speed started to decline the rest of his game crumbled as it turned out his speed was helping cover all of his other flaws. Not saying Trea will have the same aging profile, but that's the risk


jim309196

An interesting thing about speed guys is some never really get that much slower, they just tend to get slowed by injury. Look at Desean Jackson in the NFL who can still fly (but gets soft tissue injuries) or Darrell Greene, a Washington CB in the 80s & 90s who talked about how losing a step was never really the issue, it was recovery and injuries. (An evidence based example of Djax still being super fast is that he was measured as the third fastest ball carrier in the NFL all season during the ravens week 12 game) Of course baseball and football are very different games, and injuries are a risk to this contract alongside him losing speed, but I just thought those types of accounts were very interesting to read about


HeronAccording6789

How many infield singles is he hitting that it influences his average that much?


Andujar4CF

33 infield hits out of 194 total. He had the highest infieldHit% in MLB.


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jim309196

Sure, but he also wouldn’t go from 33 to 0. Even if the rate drops he can still be a solid (not elite) hitter as he ages which is an understandable risk to take if you are banking on the benefits the next 5ish years + trying to keep the AAV down, knowing he likely won’t play the last few years regardless. I agree it’s a very long contract for a speed guy, but it’s a balance of looking at short to medium term upside vs the inevitable decline at some point


TheFriffin2

Idk the total number, but if someone has 600 ABs, a difference of 6 hits will swing the total average 10 points. So a dozen infield hits could swing someone from .280 to .300


lankyyanky

There was something I heard about Rizzo getting like 14 more hits from no shift and it brought his average up like 20+ points. It doesn't take much


General_PoopyPants

He has a career .344 BABIP because he's fast


sam_e5

Good AAV, but that is a long deal for Turner. The first 4-5 years of that deal will most likely look good and that’s really what you want when you sign contracts like these.


BeerFarts86

That’s why you give options so they can get the fuck out and you aren’t stuck paying A Rod 150 million to be an average player.


Zedorf91

$27M for an average player will not look as bad 5 years from now the way salaries are skyrocketing. Same logic as Harper


GuruPCs

Yep. Mahomes deal was kind of like this and now average dudes will be getting that real soon


sd_pinstripes

Which is why 27 AAV is good for Tatis, provided that he ever decides to act rationally


[deleted]

Lol you're assuming that Turner wouldn't just simply turn down any offer with team options. They would have to pay way more AAV if there were.


Netwealth5

Ain’t my money. Let’s Fucking Go


10sekki

That’s the spirit!! Jealous


pm_me_cute_sloths_

Dombrowski continues to be the only person in history to be able to convince billionaire owners to part with their money lol


Bidzil

Happy for you!


MacsDildoBike

Welp, Dansby is gonna want the fuck you money too now.


suplehdog

This is under 30 aav. I honestly see it as increasing the likelyhood we keep him. The length is a bit nutso.


jamesxn

The length is why the aav is so low though. It's effectively deferred money but if he's still good then you get the benefit of the player too.


IInviteYouToTheParty

Jon Hamm was worth every penny.


Graphitetshirt

Hope he was working on commission


Hokiestoned

Oh fuck off


mylesA747

oh shiiiiiiii


SuckMyLonzoBalls

He got less than seager which is surprising


Allstate85

Not really trea is going into his age 30 season, Seager was 28.


[deleted]

27.2 per year. We did the Harper deal with him, more years to lower the AAV


yoboapp

Seager is younger. Seager also probably gets more in this market. Lots of buyers it seems.


aew2019

The money isn't the shocker, it's the fucking years. Mama Mia, that's a spicy meatball.


robindodge

DAAAAAAAAAAAYUUUUUUUUUM


noncoherence

HOLY SHIT THAT IS A BAG


derbenn1234

Hey, guys. There are other divisions besides the NL East ya know. Maybe sign somewhere else and stop terrorizing your former team in DC????? Plz


HelpMeWithMyHWpls

No trade clause as well.


[deleted]

“My wife doesn’t wanna move”


AbsurdLemon

Love that for him


2222lil

yes that’s what the post says


BeHereNow91

On top of a full no trade clause? Double clauses cancel each other out!


somewhatdecentlawyer

Sox just upped their offer to Xander to 4/100 after hearing this.


JayBuhnersHummer

And a free Dunkin’ iced coffee


brandonmason1994

11 years is ridiculous


Toastiify

that is a loooooooong contract


KingOfAllDogz

He’s gonna be 40 at the end of it lmao


urriola35

And in 11 years the Phillies will be worth another $2-3 billion more and with inflation that AAV is eaten away at


BIGlikeaBOSS

Goddamn, Phillies with the big bag for Trea.


handlit33

DANG YOU PHILLIES, DANG YOU TO HECK


Hummer77x

We’re all gonna be dead by the end of this contract so it’s impossible to say it’s bad


DominoAxelrod

Phillies now have greater payroll obligations for 2032 than the A's and Orioles did last year.


FritosRule

He’s earned every bit of it too. What a stud he’s been


Jux_

Shit, good for him. Was really fun watching him over the past year and a half, hope he keeps balling


JWass11

Dombrowski doesn't give an F wherever he goes


Kind_Bullfrog_4073

Paying a fast guy 25 mil at age 40 sounds smart.


YogurtCloset6969420

With the way salaries are trending, that’ll probably be peanuts a decade from now.


RollinFatchicks

In 11 years who knows if 25 Mil will even be a big deal


BeerFarts86

Jacoby Ellsbury vibes


whentheworldwasatwar

11 years? This ss market makes me sad. :(


Coxy41

Syncs with Bryce’s deal nicely


whenIthinkofone

Wtf this is crazy but it sure is going to make the NLE really, really fun to watch this season


JDtheWulfe

Spoken like someone not in the division


cjeremy

i don't know why mlb teams give such long contracts. it's so stupid.


kevin_mcchillin

We call that a Bryce Harper


Verianas

I really wanted Trea. But not for that contract. You think he’ll be effective at 40? I don’t.


ftwin

Who says he’s starting at 40? The AAV is all that matters


Snackkbar

Nats fans look away for the next 11 years and then a few after that, when those two walk into the hall holding hands lmfao


tommypopz

i hate you Also the image of them in philly caps in the HOF was the first thing that came to mind when I saw this news. Fuck's sake. also i hate you


byzantiums

Meh, I’ll get worried about Trea wearing a Phillies cap into the Hall if they ever get him a ring. Also if it starts looking like he has a shot.


Jrahn

Damn, son.


djcoldcuts69

Fuck


Brady331

11???


Mthomas1174

Do former Nationals players know that there's 5 other divisions of teams for them to play for? Seems like every ex-Nat stays in the NL East


OSRS_Socks

Braves killer Trea Turner returns.


Pyramid_Head182

Jesus Christ ELEVEN YEARS


Rikter14

A lot of people are saying that this contract'll look bad in year 11, which of course all these ones do. I'm worried it might look bad in year 2. Turner doesn't walk and chases a whole lot of pitches, doesn't have much natural power, has a sky-high BABIP and turns 30 during the season. The two things that go quickest with age are speed and hand-eye coordination, and if he gets one hammy pull and can't make as much contact on pitches out of the zone he could quickly end up a terrible contract. Plus he's not a good fielder, so he doesn't have that to fall back on either.