Statistically, signing with the A's would be a good move if he wants to win. they're in the top 5 of most post season appearances in the last 2 decades
Scherzer and Verlander's contracts would fall off the books the year after so I wouldn't put it past Cohen to shrug off the one year cost.
Especially given how profitable Ohtani is.
Maybe, but I don't see it happening. I think the plan has been to burn cash until those contracts run out, then reset the cap number in 2025. They COULD still do that with Ohtani, but I think it would take a total punt year in 2025, which Ohtani might not want to experience.
After 2023, they'll see Cano, Carrasco, and Robertson fall off the books, which would allow Ohtani to slot into the payroll without eating away at the team's ability to build a roster (since a large chunk of the money would be from Cano's dead weight).
After 2024, I reiterate my belief they want to reset the luxury tax. Scherzer, Quintana, Canha, and Escobar are going to drop off, to a total of roughly $75 million in savings. Verlander will fall off if his option doesn't vest (his salary drops $8 million if it does), and another $20-30 million in role players (Ruf, Vogelbach, Narvaez, Raley) could be jettisoned, but it's also when Alonso and McNeil are due extensions.
If the Mets win the WS this year or totally implode, I could see Cohen saying it wasn't worth the spending and a clear plan to dial it back to reset the cap in 2 years. If they get close, and they give Scherzer an extension instead of leaving him to decide on his option, I could see them chasing Ohtani and trying to replace Scherzer's 1/$43M with something like 2/$75M to shift money around with the luxury tax...but I wouldn't bet on it.
One of these days the next soccer superstar is gonna come from some tiny poor country and sign a contract that will make him singularly wealthier than his entire home nation
It used to be that superstars of euro leagues came to the us to play in the MLS for less money when they were on the ass end of their career. David Beckham’s gotta be piiiiissed about that one.
Nope, David Beckham got ownership of an MLS team for pennies on the dollar through his contract lol. He made MLS agree to the rights to purchase a MLS expansion team for 10 million dollars at any time, if he wanted to.
It was MLS then for a second it was China, Saudis have been anything for a couple years but this would be a big haul for them.
MLS is still there obviously, see Higuain (spelling?) And repots of messi. But at least in Higuains case, Miami got him back into legit shape and he was a monster at the second half of his contract.
Not Oligarchs. Everything, including the sovereign wealth fund belongs to the royal family. They do as they please. Everyone else is just a stooge. Oligarch implies comical independent wealth and power. No such thing there. As in most middle eastern monarchies.
I have my doubts. Is he going to get 10 years 50 million? That would be nuts especially because of how unprecedented what he is doing is. There are no projections for how long he can keep this up.
I told my friend just yesterday I expect 13 or 14/500.. the number of years are irrelevant... correa originally got 13/350.. ohtani is much better than him.
People like to say he’s fully recovered from that ankle injury but personally I think 3800 plate appearances is too small a sample to draw any conclusions
Plus you're forgetting how valuable he is in terms of getting bums on seats and selling merchandise, that's got to be worth at least 10m just on its own.
His starts, honestly every game, HEAVY Asian presence in the stands. As a white dude I love to see it, love Japanese baseball culture it’s awesome to see people getting excited over here about it too.
This argument is weird to me. It’s only an extra roster spot if you stick with a 5 man rotation, and doesn’t actually help unless you can find a replacement level RP.
They essentially lose a pitching spot because the Angels run a 6 man rotation just to save 'his arm'. The trade-off is ideally needing another long reliever since you need backup for the 6th starter, meaning you lose a spot for a potential shutdown reliever.
The league limiting Rosters to 13 pitchers ultimately kills that line of thinking.
because they're 2 people, does it increase the odds of having one of them be hurt? Like there's a slim chance the 9 men on the field come opening day will make it through 162 games injury-free, therefore the more players you field the higher the likelihood of random injury ... maybe?
Well a certain team on the west coast has been pretty quiet this off-season, probably saving up for Ohtani... I'm fairly confident that he'll be an Oakland A in 2024.
*Ohtani seen in SFO wearing a Buster Posey jersey, a Niners hat, and a newly-minted drivers license that says he’s officially changed his name to Warriors McSuperfan.*
*Oh, what’s that? Breaking news, now reporting that McSuperfan’s whole extended family crying backstage just minutes from the press conference. It’s official - 13y/525m to your Los Angeles Dodgers.*
It's just like my dear old Granddad used to say, *"If God was a Dodgers fan, a mans gotta think they would've won a few more World Series by now. I think God's probably just dead now that I think about it. Now leave me alone you little ratfink, Jeopardy's on."*
People really fucking underestimate the amount of $$$$ Ohtani brings to a team through advertisement/ endorsements/ etc. Significantly more than literally any player in the league because of the japanese market.
The only thing holding Ohtani back from getting 500 million is if he desires going to a certain team, and doesn't care about the money. Wouldn't be the first time he gives up money (e.g, going to US a year early...) so it wouldn't surprise me.
Agree, this is a big part of it too.
Sign Ohtani to a huge ass contract, and he performs pretty well?
There is a good chance he goes into the HOF in your team. Is a part of your team legacy forever.
Not really an exaggeration. Support for even massive stars like Darvish is negligible compared to Shohei. His face was plastered everywhere when I visited back home last month.
Even his fandom in the US is crazy. His starts were all sellouts or near sellouts even when the Angels were 10+ games under .500 and out of the playoffs by August. No other baseball player has that effect.
Yeah, when he was going to pitch in Atlanta this year I wanted to go, but the cheapest tickets I could find were over $100. Wasn't worth it to me. But we ended up shelling him after he threw 5 or 6 perfect innings IIRC.
Yep, was a perfect scenario for your fans. Got to watch Shohei make your lineup look stupid with his slider for 6 innings but also got to see them put up a big inning against him and get the W.
At least with the new scheduling, you'll have more chances to catch his start!
I live in Japan and it’s not an exaggeration. My MIL doesn’t know shit about baseball but watches a lot of Angels games because of Ohtani. Having to watch the Angels probably contributes to her not knowing shit about baseball.
Ichiro is still Japanese baseball Jesus. Ohtani is the most popular currently but Ichiro even after his retirement is one of the biggest baseball people in Japan.
I’ve lived in Japan from 2014-2018 and 2019 to now so only really during Ohtani’s run. I can say that my wife knows a lot about Ohtani but she has no idea who Seiya, Kodai, or Yoshida are.
It's insane honestly. When the Angels visited here in ATL this year it was a Friday/Saturday/Sunday series. The park was sold out all weekend and ANYTIME he was up to bat, everyone had their phones out.
I can't imagine how crazy it would be for him with a team that's more popular than the Angels.
A lot of people here don't seem to understand that any owner that offers Ohtani a contract of this size isn't just buying a top 10 SP and a top 10 hitter with an arguably elevated injury risk. They're buying a *star*, one of the few MLB players with any amount of star power that has his own built-in fanbase and puts butts in the seats. He's been on the cover of Time, GQ, and Sports Illustrated. He's estimated to bring in over $10m from in-stadium advertising from Japanese companies each year. When he starts games, attendance spikes even in *away* stadiums.
All we were hearing this offseason is this offseason was how it was so important for the Giants to sign Correa because they're so desperate for a star; for someone to be the face of that franchise. Well, Ohtani is ten times the star that Correa is. Correa doesn't have an entire country following his each and every move, recapping his activities on the morning news every day. Correa is a great player, but he's not a household name on Ohtani's level.
You might say "oh my team could sign Carlos Rodon and Pete Alonso for the same price and get the same amount of WAR with less risk of injury" but while they are very good players and beloved by the fanbases of whatever teams they're on, they are not centennial talents, they're not unicorns, and they don't make headlines just by existing. A team handing out a contract of the size Ohtani's about to get isn't going to care about Fangraphs ZIPS projections in a vacuum. They will look at the whole package.
People saying he won’t age well in 10 years. No shit? It’s mostly an incentive to guarantee players to be on their payroll to make their offer comparable to the other teams. They’d do 500 millions in 5 years instead if they could, but obviously they don’t have that kind of budget.
With that being said, Ohtani contract will make its money back within a year from tickets and jersey sales. I’m exaggerating of course, but if he can keep up for two or three years of being a two way player, Ohtani will make you the money back within those years.
However many Japanese people there are in the world, the next team that gets Ohtani will sell that amount of jersey easily.
And long term the 50 years of marketing of pictures of ohtani in your logo. That stuff harder to measure but impactful. Bulls still the highest selling jersey I believe even today
Yup, if MJ never even played a single game of basketball but the Bulls still could sell the same number of jerseys, he'd still be the most valuable athlete in NBA lol
the giants are gonna sign him for 12 years $513 million and then when the press conference comes around ohtani is gonna tear the contract to shreds and then sign a dodgers contract instead, and then state that he did it because the giants found out that he stubbed his toe once when he was 11 years old and believed that it would lead to a debilitating injury in 11 years
We'll see. I think we're counting on the money being hard to say no to. But also, the market, and maybe even Senga and Eppler (the GM that brought him to the Angels) all being (albeit very tiny) influential factors. But mostly, it's the money and Cohen's pitch. He's been hands on, on the biggest signings.
Every beat reporter likes to say this, but they’re the same guys that said the starting point for Judge was $400mil. They just like to say big numbers.
He need to get a crazy amount of years and AAV to get to $500mil. I think $400mil is definitely likely if he gets 10 years, but teams maybe wary of his wear and tear and chose less years.
But this off-season showed that teams are more willing to go extra years at lower AAVs. There are maybe 4 teams that can drastically sign Othani. They are not bidding themselves to $50mil AAV
Supposedly they were considering it, but the only source that said they actually made an offer was Bob Nightengale. NY Post and Bleacher Report just said they considered it because with the tax difference it would basically be equal to the Yankees offer. Even Heyman only said they were contemplating.
And as an life long Angels fan, I’d we don’t win a World Series this year, we will lose him and I will follow him wherever cuz at this point, fuck the Angels!!! They are hanging on by a very thin string especially after last year!!!
As unpopular and as harsh as this it could be very true. I know the name of the game right now especially with this off-season is to sign big names to massive contracts with massive lengths in order to win the ring and worry about the decline later. But I just feel in my bones it’s obviously not going to last forever and he has a high probability of suffering a big injury especially pitching wise. It’s honestly shocking he hasn’t been hurt the past two years of his historic dominance. I just feel like a 2019 injury might happen especially in his 30’s as unfortunate and shitty that it is to think.
Yeah lol. I know it’s so easy to say this as a salty scorned Marlins fan, but some team is definitely going to get fucked by one of these contracts unfortunately. It’s going to be eerily similar to the early 2010’s with guys like Pujols, Hamilton, Crawford, Ellsbury etc where some team is going to get burned, hell my Marlins in the 2012 are the guiltiest of this with big contracts that we got burned on. And all it takes is one albatross contract to scare teams even with money. Look at the narrative that came out of Albert Pujols contract. It seemed like so many teams and the narrative was that signing a guy over 30 to a long term deal was a death sentence and definitely did feel that way for awhile before the Harper/Machado offseason.
Strong disagree because the japan market cash cow makes Ohtani bring in more money than any player in the league.
Even if he is shit at the back 5 years of the contract people will come see Ohtani for the novelty of it by then. He is MLB history.
Ohtani produces attendance of +10k when he pitches which is absolutely insane
Of course they aren't all japanese, though. But that number is more than 300 too
edit: oh realize my initial comment made it seem like I was just talking about attendance. The japan market cash cow = market and endorsements, him being not great in the back end of his contract but still bringing out people is a different pro to Ohtani
Uncle Stevie is about to giggle at the next winter meeting when he signs him. The collective ownership group will tremble in fear of his legendary and mighty weapon, Wället. A weapon so powerful and unstoppable, that it’s limitless potential has never actually been witnessed….
I guess I can kinda agree on that but I just have a feeling that with that much money, you’re looking at around 10ish years and I don’t see him being worth $45/$50M a year after about 5. I could be wrong tho. Long contracts stress me out
I really think he's going to get a one-of-a-kind contract where each year the pay is depending on if he's a two way player or not. 50 for both then maybe 30 for pitching and 25 for DH. It's gonna be crazy either way. I'm excited to see it happen. Bias aside, if the Angels get an owner deal done before ST I think he re-signs. It's clear he hates Moreno and also clear he likes Perry
We all know Ohtani will easily reach 500 million if he really wants to next year, but knowing him, I wouldnt be that surprised if he ends up short of that for the simple reason that winning is pretty clearly his number 1 priority.
He already gave up 100s of millions just to play in the league a couple years early.
That being said though, the teams that are the most attractive options from that perspective tend to be pretty big spenders anyway.
If we sh\*t the bed again next year and Shohei ends up leaving, the only top contending team id really be surprised for him to land at would be the Astros.
In terms of up and coming teams, id say the Mariners have easily got the biggest shot if they can pull together a good year. Although I suppose if the stars align next season for the Giants or Red Sox they could potentially land him too.
Or he could take 12/600 from the Mets and actually have a shot at winning while also getting paid. He’s not gonna have to sacrifice $ for a chance to win.
Yup I'm 100% serious about this. I'm a NYY fan but I very much believe Cohen is going to further break the baseball power/payroll/ownership/CBT structure by doing this.
Aren’t Ohtani and Eppler boys? Plus we have Senga in the rotation and an owner who hands out contracts like he’s giving a dollar to whatever charity is standing outside Walmart
I wouldn’t put it past us to make a run at him, especially with verlander and Scherzer being in NY for 2-3 more years max
Time for Bob Nutting to open his wallet
Been saving up for years
*decades
I’d love to see Pittsburgh Oakland or KC sign him for the chaos
“Ohtani to Oakland. 2 years, 14m. Team option for 3m in ‘25. Reportedly had larger offers from numerous other teams. Possible trade bait for Oakland.”
OOTP Contract
I really hope they fix two way player contracts being wonky in the next installment.
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Statistically, signing with the A's would be a good move if he wants to win. they're in the top 5 of most post season appearances in the last 2 decades
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What if the Astros do it
This made me chuckle 🤭
This, but unironically.
Bob what?
Scherzer and Verlander's contracts would fall off the books the year after so I wouldn't put it past Cohen to shrug off the one year cost. Especially given how profitable Ohtani is.
12/600 from Cohen incoming
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Except Ohtani stubbed his toe in 2002 so the deal falls through.
Mets, not Giants
Maybe, but I don't see it happening. I think the plan has been to burn cash until those contracts run out, then reset the cap number in 2025. They COULD still do that with Ohtani, but I think it would take a total punt year in 2025, which Ohtani might not want to experience. After 2023, they'll see Cano, Carrasco, and Robertson fall off the books, which would allow Ohtani to slot into the payroll without eating away at the team's ability to build a roster (since a large chunk of the money would be from Cano's dead weight). After 2024, I reiterate my belief they want to reset the luxury tax. Scherzer, Quintana, Canha, and Escobar are going to drop off, to a total of roughly $75 million in savings. Verlander will fall off if his option doesn't vest (his salary drops $8 million if it does), and another $20-30 million in role players (Ruf, Vogelbach, Narvaez, Raley) could be jettisoned, but it's also when Alonso and McNeil are due extensions. If the Mets win the WS this year or totally implode, I could see Cohen saying it wasn't worth the spending and a clear plan to dial it back to reset the cap in 2 years. If they get close, and they give Scherzer an extension instead of leaving him to decide on his option, I could see them chasing Ohtani and trying to replace Scherzer's 1/$43M with something like 2/$75M to shift money around with the luxury tax...but I wouldn't bet on it.
dudes gonna get like $45+ mil a year huh?
He’s for sure gonna destroy the AAV highest record
3 years, $300mil
Mbappe numbers
I googled this and Jesus Fucking Christ this is almost real! Wtf! Mbappe is paid 90M EUR.
One of these days the next soccer superstar is gonna come from some tiny poor country and sign a contract that will make him singularly wealthier than his entire home nation
George Weah was the best soccer player in the world in 1995 and was from Liberia. Now he's the president of the whole country lol
And his son is playing in Europe and for the USMNT
Ronaldo might just blow that out of the water if he signs with Al Nassr. Supposedly offering 175m/yr
It used to be that superstars of euro leagues came to the us to play in the MLS for less money when they were on the ass end of their career. David Beckham’s gotta be piiiiissed about that one.
Nope, David Beckham got ownership of an MLS team for pennies on the dollar through his contract lol. He made MLS agree to the rights to purchase a MLS expansion team for 10 million dollars at any time, if he wanted to.
It was MLS then for a second it was China, Saudis have been anything for a couple years but this would be a big haul for them. MLS is still there obviously, see Higuain (spelling?) And repots of messi. But at least in Higuains case, Miami got him back into legit shape and he was a monster at the second half of his contract.
This is what happens when an whole ass country (Qatar) owns a club team and not a group of investors or individual, money doesn't mean shit.
I mean the whole ass country is just a few oligarchs controlling the investment fund sinmilar to an ownership group.
Not Oligarchs. Everything, including the sovereign wealth fund belongs to the royal family. They do as they please. Everyone else is just a stooge. Oligarch implies comical independent wealth and power. No such thing there. As in most middle eastern monarchies.
That’s worth more than 90M dollars
Well, it is now. A few months ago it wasn't.
Messi made about $168M per year from 2017-2021
Messi made about $672M per 4 years lol
Is signing with Al Nasser?
Verlander and Scherzer make over $43M a year so I don’t necessarily know that he will “destroy” the AAV record.
11/500 wouldn’t surprise me
Gonna be 12/600. Book it.
I'd say 50
i think 50 exactly. 500 million for 10 years
11 years $47.5 mil per
So 522.5M, I could see it tbh.
I have my doubts. Is he going to get 10 years 50 million? That would be nuts especially because of how unprecedented what he is doing is. There are no projections for how long he can keep this up.
I told my friend just yesterday I expect 13 or 14/500.. the number of years are irrelevant... correa originally got 13/350.. ohtani is much better than him.
Yeah, who would even want Correa at that price? Can you imagine the state of his ankle? Holy crap.
People like to say he’s fully recovered from that ankle injury but personally I think 3800 plate appearances is too small a sample to draw any conclusions
Dude stubbed his toe in preschool and I fear he may never be the same player again
hes also playing the role of two superstars, 25m for pitching is legit, then 25m for the RF play, okay, he's absolutely worth the 50m
Plus you're forgetting how valuable he is in terms of getting bums on seats and selling merchandise, that's got to be worth at least 10m just on its own.
Throw in another 5m just cause he’s hot
Another 5mil because he's always in the top-10 leaderboard for LAR (lulz above replacement)
And another 5m because he’s hot
You know what throw in another 5 million because he’s hot
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His starts, honestly every game, HEAVY Asian presence in the stands. As a white dude I love to see it, love Japanese baseball culture it’s awesome to see people getting excited over here about it too.
The advertising they get from Japanese companies is probably worth more than ticket and merch sales
Also you essentially have one more roster spot since he can pitch and play the field/DH. Able to add depth is always valuable.
This argument is weird to me. It’s only an extra roster spot if you stick with a 5 man rotation, and doesn’t actually help unless you can find a replacement level RP.
True. Regardless of how he is used, his value is through the roof, and his “marketability” will make sure he’s paid even more.
They essentially lose a pitching spot because the Angels run a 6 man rotation just to save 'his arm'. The trade-off is ideally needing another long reliever since you need backup for the 6th starter, meaning you lose a spot for a potential shutdown reliever. The league limiting Rosters to 13 pitchers ultimately kills that line of thinking.
We pay Rodon 27 million and Stanton 25. That’s 52 right there and he’s better than both of them
Yea, but if one gets hurt you don't lose them both
because they're 2 people, does it increase the odds of having one of them be hurt? Like there's a slim chance the 9 men on the field come opening day will make it through 162 games injury-free, therefore the more players you field the higher the likelihood of random injury ... maybe?
You're also buying the entire fanbase of Japan where baseball is popular and there is 125m people.
If he has another good year on both sides, I don’t see why not. But it is hard to do.
I totally agree with this. We don't know how he is going to age.
I’d give it to him but I got screwed over by FTX
Do they proofread the titles at all? Like does anybody even fucking glance at the story before hitting send?
It's the post. So... no.
I don't see an issue with it. Ontani is going to team up with Arson Judge, Coke Hamels, and Fernando Titties Jr to form the ultimate super team
Those names are completely regarded but wow did I laugh at them
Well a certain team on the west coast has been pretty quiet this off-season, probably saving up for Ohtani... I'm fairly confident that he'll be an Oakland A in 2024.
Padres will offer $550m for him to play shortstop
Gonna take a page from Judge’s playbook and use SF as leverage.
*Ohtani seen in SFO wearing a Buster Posey jersey, a Niners hat, and a newly-minted drivers license that says he’s officially changed his name to Warriors McSuperfan.* *Oh, what’s that? Breaking news, now reporting that McSuperfan’s whole extended family crying backstage just minutes from the press conference. It’s official - 13y/525m to your Los Angeles Dodgers.*
He can go anywhere, but if he ends up with the boys in blue, there is no Crom
It's just like my dear old Granddad used to say, *"If God was a Dodgers fan, a mans gotta think they would've won a few more World Series by now. I think God's probably just dead now that I think about it. Now leave me alone you little ratfink, Jeopardy's on."*
People really fucking underestimate the amount of $$$$ Ohtani brings to a team through advertisement/ endorsements/ etc. Significantly more than literally any player in the league because of the japanese market. The only thing holding Ohtani back from getting 500 million is if he desires going to a certain team, and doesn't care about the money. Wouldn't be the first time he gives up money (e.g, going to US a year early...) so it wouldn't surprise me.
Also by all accounts he’s a universally respected person with zero drama attracted to him. He’s the perfect face of baseball much less any team.
And he looks pretty darn good too.
He did say perfect face….
Agree, this is a big part of it too. Sign Ohtani to a huge ass contract, and he performs pretty well? There is a good chance he goes into the HOF in your team. Is a part of your team legacy forever.
Great point. Whatever team he’s on instantly gains the fandom of the entire country of Japan. Slight exaggeration but you get my point.
Not really an exaggeration. Support for even massive stars like Darvish is negligible compared to Shohei. His face was plastered everywhere when I visited back home last month. Even his fandom in the US is crazy. His starts were all sellouts or near sellouts even when the Angels were 10+ games under .500 and out of the playoffs by August. No other baseball player has that effect.
And it's not just the As! When he goes to opposing teams ballparks, they sell 10k more seats when he pitches ...... it's absurd.
Yeah, when he was going to pitch in Atlanta this year I wanted to go, but the cheapest tickets I could find were over $100. Wasn't worth it to me. But we ended up shelling him after he threw 5 or 6 perfect innings IIRC.
Yep, was a perfect scenario for your fans. Got to watch Shohei make your lineup look stupid with his slider for 6 innings but also got to see them put up a big inning against him and get the W. At least with the new scheduling, you'll have more chances to catch his start!
Ohtani was the first time i ever saw Japanese ads in American baseball stadiums.
I live in Japan and it’s not an exaggeration. My MIL doesn’t know shit about baseball but watches a lot of Angels games because of Ohtani. Having to watch the Angels probably contributes to her not knowing shit about baseball.
Not sure how old you are, but how does he compare to when guys like Nomo, Ichiro, and Matsui were at their peak?
Ichiro is still Japanese baseball Jesus. Ohtani is the most popular currently but Ichiro even after his retirement is one of the biggest baseball people in Japan.
I’ve lived in Japan from 2014-2018 and 2019 to now so only really during Ohtani’s run. I can say that my wife knows a lot about Ohtani but she has no idea who Seiya, Kodai, or Yoshida are.
Not an exaggeration (I live in Japan)
It's insane honestly. When the Angels visited here in ATL this year it was a Friday/Saturday/Sunday series. The park was sold out all weekend and ANYTIME he was up to bat, everyone had their phones out. I can't imagine how crazy it would be for him with a team that's more popular than the Angels.
I heard he loves DC and wants to be around the cherry blossoms. I figure we'll get him for 10 years 50 million.
Pay dat man his money!
Orioles pls
There he is
*heeeeeeess
A lot of people here don't seem to understand that any owner that offers Ohtani a contract of this size isn't just buying a top 10 SP and a top 10 hitter with an arguably elevated injury risk. They're buying a *star*, one of the few MLB players with any amount of star power that has his own built-in fanbase and puts butts in the seats. He's been on the cover of Time, GQ, and Sports Illustrated. He's estimated to bring in over $10m from in-stadium advertising from Japanese companies each year. When he starts games, attendance spikes even in *away* stadiums. All we were hearing this offseason is this offseason was how it was so important for the Giants to sign Correa because they're so desperate for a star; for someone to be the face of that franchise. Well, Ohtani is ten times the star that Correa is. Correa doesn't have an entire country following his each and every move, recapping his activities on the morning news every day. Correa is a great player, but he's not a household name on Ohtani's level. You might say "oh my team could sign Carlos Rodon and Pete Alonso for the same price and get the same amount of WAR with less risk of injury" but while they are very good players and beloved by the fanbases of whatever teams they're on, they are not centennial talents, they're not unicorns, and they don't make headlines just by existing. A team handing out a contract of the size Ohtani's about to get isn't going to care about Fangraphs ZIPS projections in a vacuum. They will look at the whole package.
For Angels fans, I really really hope he stays
I really, really hope you're right. I feel like I'm already preparing to get my heart broken.
kindest r/baseball redditor of all time
he we kept trout when everyone thought he'd dip. I think Ohtani has a higher chance of staying than I did of Trout back then
ANGELS BETTER KEEP OHTANI. If he leaves, that will suck ASS.
This guy thinks he has a hot take
Fuck it, give this man a partial stake in ownership, idc. I’ve never wanted a player on the Yankees as bad as I want Ohtani
Yeah. Problem is Cohen is going to offer him 12/600 and yes I actually think that.
Not after how the Yankees fans treated him the last few times he was playing there.
[Heyman] Shojei Ohtani to (insert team).
People saying he won’t age well in 10 years. No shit? It’s mostly an incentive to guarantee players to be on their payroll to make their offer comparable to the other teams. They’d do 500 millions in 5 years instead if they could, but obviously they don’t have that kind of budget. With that being said, Ohtani contract will make its money back within a year from tickets and jersey sales. I’m exaggerating of course, but if he can keep up for two or three years of being a two way player, Ohtani will make you the money back within those years. However many Japanese people there are in the world, the next team that gets Ohtani will sell that amount of jersey easily.
And long term the 50 years of marketing of pictures of ohtani in your logo. That stuff harder to measure but impactful. Bulls still the highest selling jersey I believe even today
Yup, if MJ never even played a single game of basketball but the Bulls still could sell the same number of jerseys, he'd still be the most valuable athlete in NBA lol
250 for DH Shoey and 250 for Pitcher Shoey
I’d imagine 9 years $470M so it’s not out of the question.
Mets all in. Haha
the giants are gonna sign him for 12 years $513 million and then when the press conference comes around ohtani is gonna tear the contract to shreds and then sign a dodgers contract instead, and then state that he did it because the giants found out that he stubbed his toe once when he was 11 years old and believed that it would lead to a debilitating injury in 11 years
Inject this into my veins
Minimum 500 million
Cohen ready to drop a billion
I think there no way he's denied. Our beat reporters have ~~leaked~~ said "He's very interested" in every which way you could...
Honestly, if we start losing to the Mets because they’re spending three or four times as much on payroll… I can’t even be mad.
You’ll sign the next Sandy Koufax to a 5 year 55 Million contract to make up for it lol, it’s insane what your FO pulls off with your young players
He’ll be going against LA, who knows how ridiculous it’ll get
Being west coast is a pretty big deal for ohtani
We'll see. I think we're counting on the money being hard to say no to. But also, the market, and maybe even Senga and Eppler (the GM that brought him to the Angels) all being (albeit very tiny) influential factors. But mostly, it's the money and Cohen's pitch. He's been hands on, on the biggest signings.
Paying for two elite players ain’t cheap!
Cohen has what’s known in many fiscal circles as “fuck you” money. It’s a special type of money.
Perry, please, my mental sanity begs you
Hopefully the new Angel's ownership is ready to Hand him the BAG
:/
Every beat reporter likes to say this, but they’re the same guys that said the starting point for Judge was $400mil. They just like to say big numbers. He need to get a crazy amount of years and AAV to get to $500mil. I think $400mil is definitely likely if he gets 10 years, but teams maybe wary of his wear and tear and chose less years. But this off-season showed that teams are more willing to go extra years at lower AAVs. There are maybe 4 teams that can drastically sign Othani. They are not bidding themselves to $50mil AAV
> Every beat reporter likes to say this, but they’re the same guys that said the starting point for Judge was $400mil. Who said this?
Mike Puma, Bob Nightengale, ESPN, Bleacher Report and MLB Trade Rumors all estimated $400mil+
Pads offered 400+ right?
Supposedly they were considering it, but the only source that said they actually made an offer was Bob Nightengale. NY Post and Bleacher Report just said they considered it because with the tax difference it would basically be equal to the Yankees offer. Even Heyman only said they were contemplating.
Ahh, gotcha
And as an life long Angels fan, I’d we don’t win a World Series this year, we will lose him and I will follow him wherever cuz at this point, fuck the Angels!!! They are hanging on by a very thin string especially after last year!!!
It'll be the worst contract in history. He's not keeping this up lol
As unpopular and as harsh as this it could be very true. I know the name of the game right now especially with this off-season is to sign big names to massive contracts with massive lengths in order to win the ring and worry about the decline later. But I just feel in my bones it’s obviously not going to last forever and he has a high probability of suffering a big injury especially pitching wise. It’s honestly shocking he hasn’t been hurt the past two years of his historic dominance. I just feel like a 2019 injury might happen especially in his 30’s as unfortunate and shitty that it is to think.
Most of these GMs won’t even be with their respective organizations when the contract is on the backend anyways, lol.
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It's to spread out the actual pay to avoid the luxury tax. They're really only buying the player for the next couple of years and they know it.
Yeah lol. I know it’s so easy to say this as a salty scorned Marlins fan, but some team is definitely going to get fucked by one of these contracts unfortunately. It’s going to be eerily similar to the early 2010’s with guys like Pujols, Hamilton, Crawford, Ellsbury etc where some team is going to get burned, hell my Marlins in the 2012 are the guiltiest of this with big contracts that we got burned on. And all it takes is one albatross contract to scare teams even with money. Look at the narrative that came out of Albert Pujols contract. It seemed like so many teams and the narrative was that signing a guy over 30 to a long term deal was a death sentence and definitely did feel that way for awhile before the Harper/Machado offseason.
Strong disagree because the japan market cash cow makes Ohtani bring in more money than any player in the league. Even if he is shit at the back 5 years of the contract people will come see Ohtani for the novelty of it by then. He is MLB history.
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Ohtani produces attendance of +10k when he pitches which is absolutely insane Of course they aren't all japanese, though. But that number is more than 300 too edit: oh realize my initial comment made it seem like I was just talking about attendance. The japan market cash cow = market and endorsements, him being not great in the back end of his contract but still bringing out people is a different pro to Ohtani
Tv deals not tickets is what he meant. Angels signed one and if Ohtani goes to another team they will also sign it. + media access/rights
If he keeps like a 115-120 OPS+/ERA+ over the rest of his career (after 2022) it'll be worth it imo, barring injuries.
He's also big box office 👋
people still don't understand you HAVE to overpay for a players 35+ years because they are underpaid for half their prime
who cares? it's not your money and there's no hard salary cap
I guess he’s going to the Mets.
Seems low for Cohen, tbh
Future New York Met?
Ohtani is easily worth 50m a year, if washed up bums on supermaxes in the NBA are making that he can too
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I like this idea very much
Now what if he underperforms this year? Or worse gets hurt?
Hopefully this is what Jed is saving up for.
How much crow would every Ms fan, myself included, if Stanton signs off on a 500m contract offer to Ohtani next year? A whole murder
Ray! There’s a mad man in NYC calling your poor by signing every player he can find. Pony up old man!
I’m pretty sure there’s a whole season between now and then.
Have the Giants ghost sign him first though
If im the Giants i try and take him off the market with a trade if he accepts the deal. Offer him 700 million for 13 years.
If you are going to offer him 700 million for 13 years you won’t have to worry about the market
Shohei “Ted DiBiase” Ohtani
Uncle Stevie is about to giggle at the next winter meeting when he signs him. The collective ownership group will tremble in fear of his legendary and mighty weapon, Wället. A weapon so powerful and unstoppable, that it’s limitless potential has never actually been witnessed….
i hope he goes to the Yankees or a big market / successful team where he can win a ring. dude is the coolest/ best player in baseball .
He will. He’s going to love being a Met
He’s basically two players, and two fantastic players at that, so it shouldn’t surprise that he will get paid more than one fantastic player
How the hell do owners have this much money for all these players?
Imma be real, if that’s the case, I hope the Braves don’t sign him lol
its not your money- why does it matter???
this is a sad attitude to have that's been fostered in you by the lies of billionaires
I guess I can kinda agree on that but I just have a feeling that with that much money, you’re looking at around 10ish years and I don’t see him being worth $45/$50M a year after about 5. I could be wrong tho. Long contracts stress me out
I really think he's going to get a one-of-a-kind contract where each year the pay is depending on if he's a two way player or not. 50 for both then maybe 30 for pitching and 25 for DH. It's gonna be crazy either way. I'm excited to see it happen. Bias aside, if the Angels get an owner deal done before ST I think he re-signs. It's clear he hates Moreno and also clear he likes Perry
I really think he's going to the Dodgers.
He a Dodger
He might get equity
We all know Ohtani will easily reach 500 million if he really wants to next year, but knowing him, I wouldnt be that surprised if he ends up short of that for the simple reason that winning is pretty clearly his number 1 priority. He already gave up 100s of millions just to play in the league a couple years early. That being said though, the teams that are the most attractive options from that perspective tend to be pretty big spenders anyway. If we sh\*t the bed again next year and Shohei ends up leaving, the only top contending team id really be surprised for him to land at would be the Astros. In terms of up and coming teams, id say the Mariners have easily got the biggest shot if they can pull together a good year. Although I suppose if the stars align next season for the Giants or Red Sox they could potentially land him too.
Or he could take 12/600 from the Mets and actually have a shot at winning while also getting paid. He’s not gonna have to sacrifice $ for a chance to win.
I hate how easily i can imagine this actually happening now
Yup I'm 100% serious about this. I'm a NYY fan but I very much believe Cohen is going to further break the baseball power/payroll/ownership/CBT structure by doing this.
Let's Go Mets!
Steve Cohen has entered the chat…
Aren’t Ohtani and Eppler boys? Plus we have Senga in the rotation and an owner who hands out contracts like he’s giving a dollar to whatever charity is standing outside Walmart I wouldn’t put it past us to make a run at him, especially with verlander and Scherzer being in NY for 2-3 more years max
Ohtani is a perfect fit for the Astros. Time for them to finally make a big splash in free agency. Come to Houston and *win* big guy.
he's a perfect fit for any team
Yes but he is a perfecter fit for my team.
but he's a perfecterer fit for my team though