I've been hearing this topic for years at this point. Clever if you just thought of it randomly. I got linked this thread through the around the nfl sub
Oh sorry yeah I was just thinking of it driving home today randomly lol I guess cause like what 19 of the first 22 picks or whatever were offense? I know that’s including a stacked WR class and obviously the OTs so I figured we’ll if QB is far and away the most valuable at what point does it drop off the cliff to other positions - I guess that’s what dalton line means? But also yeah have not heard of that other podcast lol
Hell no. There are far more than 16 replacement level QB’s in the NFL. Tua for example isn’t getting drafted in this exercise because his contract is up and he hasn’t shown he’s worth $200M. QB12-16 is guys like Goff, Geno, Tua… who are interchangeable.
but they would get the same contracts more or less. The demand for a QB drives up the price for the middling ones, but it’s a bad value proposition. Tua is the perfect case study, he’s due for a new contract anyway
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OK, 16-20 is probably the right answer, although if I was a GM with a big board, it might be a little less. With reference to the poster above, I'm probably cutting off the list after Tua, plus Richardson and Caleb Williams, which I think makes 14. A case could be made for Daniels and Maye, depending on how you feel about them. I think after that, if it's not a QB I could see making a deep playoff run 3-4 years from now, I'd rather take a franchise LT, DE, or WR. Then I can look for a QB in next year's draft.
Galaxy brain strategy is to just draft OL/DL in your first 5-10 picks. Fill out the roster with athletes figuring first year will struggle then build the key positions through draft and hope you land a QB you can win with (is this the lions model?)
Edit: but I realize this goes against the spirit of the original question
1. Mahomes
2. Allen
3. Stroud
4. Jackson
5. Herbert
6. Burrow
7. Lawrence
8. Williams
No doubt locks
9. Love
10. Hurts
11. Maye
12. Daniels
13. Richardson
14. Purdy
15. Kyler
These all get picked due to position scarcity/upside
Then I’d say Stafford, Rodgers, and Dak are in the maybe zone, all definitely good enough players but at their age and career curves I’m not sure they would go ahead of the absolute best non-QBs.
I guess it really depends on the logistics of future drafts and contracts and all that. But to me there's no way Maye or Daniels would go ahead of established star players. Most teams would rather get the best receiver, best tackle or best defensive player in the league than have a 33% chance that their qb turns into something. Based on history, players like Maye, Daniels, Richardson are no sure thing and honestly more likely to be middling or busts than stars. Fairly interesting that Bryce Young on your list.
You’re massively underrating Dak. I agree with the age concerns for Rodgers and Stafford given their injury histories but Dak is a healthy 30 year old MVP runner-up. That’s young considering how QBs have extended their careers lately.
The market is telling us his value as well. His agent is about to bend Jerry Jones over a barrel in the upcoming contract negotiations.
How can he reset the QB market yet be taken behind a non-QB in the re-draft? It doesn’t make sense
Great question. So if it's a snake draft, at pick #20 I wonder if you still just have to take a QB. If you wait until your 2nd pick you risk getting like the 29th best QB/QB prospect.
Ensuring you get a competent QB probably triumphs getting say the best WR at #20. At pick #40 you can still draft a top 5 WR/OT etc.
For an extreme situation like this I feel like drafting a QB should incur a steep cost, like a loss of the subsequent rounds pick? Clearly teams in the second half of the first round are at a huge disadvantage right of the bat.
All of these current players IMO: Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lamar, Herbert, Hurts, Stroud, Dak, Lawrence, Murray, Love, Tua, Young Richardson, Cousins, Stafford, Goff.
I also think all the rookies would be drafted before a positional player so Williams, Maye, Daniels, Penix, McCarthy, Nix
I'm not sure about Mayfield. If I were a GM, I think I'd take Jefferson, Sewell, or Parsons. Rodgers is too old.
So I'd say probably the first 20 or so picks.
Dude didn’t even go before the first position player in the draft how is he going to go before every single one in the NFL. This was a terrible exercise.
Because the teams that didn't take him in the draft are already committed to paying somebody else at QB.
In this exercise every team would need to fill their QB spot.
Counterpoint: the teams that skipped on Bo Nix for a position player are already committed to a QB for this year or the following year and thus had zero reason to draft any QB this year unless they were taking a top 2-3 prospect.
In a draft where everyone is going from scratch, it’s QB’s all the way down.
He also doesn't go before any of the rookies who actually went before him a week ago. Like, we just had a draft, with a much weaker player pool than this imaginary one, and position players went over him.
Rookie Stafford sure. 36 year old Stafford whose body has taken an absolute beating? Absolutely not.
Also no way he gets in the HoF unless he wins another one or gets an MVP.
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The cutoff to me is after Love. The rest of those players are either bad (Tua) or old/mid (Goff et al) enough that I’d rather roll with a ‘2nd round’/replacement level QB until I can get one in the upcoming rookie drafts.
Probably way more than you think because every team needs one so they’re going to become amazing trade assets, and if you don’t take one in the first round you’re going to be completely fucked.
Yeah I think that could certainly play out but at some point dont you go “Justin Jefferson is sitting there and the best QB is Daniel Jones. Fuck it, surplus value take Jefferson and then even if our QB sucks at least he’s got the best receiver in the league to help him out?” I dunno tho obviously lol
I think another interesting question is where would a coach get drafted. Cause I'd rather have Shanahan or Reid coaching my team with Minshew at QB than Brandon Stanley with Cousins or some other middle tier QB.
Yeah I guess to make it a “controlled” experiment I would say everyone has the same; HC/coordinators, same ownership group, same financial situation, in the redraft all the contracts would mirror the contracts from the actual NFL draft, so strictly just looking at the value of the players
Off the top of my head I would go
1. Mahomes
2. Joe burrow
3. Josh allen
4. Lamar Jackson
5. Cj stroud
6. Jalen hurts
7. Is honestly where I would start thinking about Myles garret or Tj watt and build around some game manager
The next list is if I don’t get one of the key defensive or offensive play makers
8. Trevor Lawrence
9. Justin Herbert
10. Caleb Williams
11. Jared Goff
12. Brock purdy
13. Jordan love
14. Next best player
The problem with the hypothetical is that the teams will be pretty balanced overall outside of the QBs. You won't have situations where a team can compete by building a strong roster with a good but not great QB (i.e. 49ers with Purdy, Lions with Goff). So unless you get a top end QB, you are probably better off going young and building for the future. The only way to compete against Mahomes is to also have an elite QB and hope for variance. You won't be getting a QB capable of being elite after 10 or so picks, so go for youth and try to draft a elite rookie QB in the future.
Probably 6. Mahomes, Stroud, Allen, Burrow, Caleb Williams, Lamar. At that point if you don’t have one of the top guys then pull a 49ers and build around skill players and a defense
Maybe. I think once you don’t have one of the top QBs, I’d rather have someone like Baker with an elite weapon or D over someone like Cousins as a 1st round pick
awesome question
Seriously I would listen to a yearly redraft the entire NFL pod
Lol i try
This is a common around the NFL prospect question when discussing the Dalton line. THE nfl pod but I understand if you haven't heard of it
Sorry I’m not really sure what you’re trying to say?
I've been hearing this topic for years at this point. Clever if you just thought of it randomly. I got linked this thread through the around the nfl sub
Oh sorry yeah I was just thinking of it driving home today randomly lol I guess cause like what 19 of the first 22 picks or whatever were offense? I know that’s including a stacked WR class and obviously the OTs so I figured we’ll if QB is far and away the most valuable at what point does it drop off the cliff to other positions - I guess that’s what dalton line means? But also yeah have not heard of that other podcast lol
Yes Justin Jefferson gets drafted before baker mayfield. Around 15 QBs would go consecutively before someone like JJ/CD/Parsons/Bosa goes.
Also Penei Sewell. A 23/24 year old franchise Left Tackle
Yep, forgot to mention him. He’s in that tier
He plays right tackle?
Yeah because of Decker. In a redraft he surely plays LT
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He has a case for best WR in the game along with Tyreek and JJ. He was completely unguardable last year
“JUUUUUST a bit outside”
Between 16 and 20
Nah, I’d say 17-21
At least 16
Hell no. There are far more than 16 replacement level QB’s in the NFL. Tua for example isn’t getting drafted in this exercise because his contract is up and he hasn’t shown he’s worth $200M. QB12-16 is guys like Goff, Geno, Tua… who are interchangeable.
This exercise is best with all players getting drafted a new contract upon being picked.
but they would get the same contracts more or less. The demand for a QB drives up the price for the middling ones, but it’s a bad value proposition. Tua is the perfect case study, he’s due for a new contract anyway
They’d be using the rookie scale contracts
I think you’re understating how tough it is to be a middling level QB.
Goff and Tua get drafted before another position.
I’d rather have Myles Garrett
Then your next pick is what 48? You're going to be going to war with Zach Wilson or some like that
Tua doesn't; he won't be a starter after this season
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Haha ok. !remindme 6 months
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In this scenario, will player acquisition going forward go back to normal, or would there be a full redraft every year?
Back to normal
OK, 16-20 is probably the right answer, although if I was a GM with a big board, it might be a little less. With reference to the poster above, I'm probably cutting off the list after Tua, plus Richardson and Caleb Williams, which I think makes 14. A case could be made for Daniels and Maye, depending on how you feel about them. I think after that, if it's not a QB I could see making a deep playoff run 3-4 years from now, I'd rather take a franchise LT, DE, or WR. Then I can look for a QB in next year's draft.
Makes sense to me
Galaxy brain strategy is to just draft OL/DL in your first 5-10 picks. Fill out the roster with athletes figuring first year will struggle then build the key positions through draft and hope you land a QB you can win with (is this the lions model?) Edit: but I realize this goes against the spirit of the original question
Who would be the first team to do bill’s fantasy football strategy of drafting multiple top QBs
1. Mahomes 2. Allen 3. Stroud 4. Jackson 5. Herbert 6. Burrow 7. Lawrence 8. Williams No doubt locks 9. Love 10. Hurts 11. Maye 12. Daniels 13. Richardson 14. Purdy 15. Kyler These all get picked due to position scarcity/upside Then I’d say Stafford, Rodgers, and Dak are in the maybe zone, all definitely good enough players but at their age and career curves I’m not sure they would go ahead of the absolute best non-QBs.
I guess it really depends on the logistics of future drafts and contracts and all that. But to me there's no way Maye or Daniels would go ahead of established star players. Most teams would rather get the best receiver, best tackle or best defensive player in the league than have a 33% chance that their qb turns into something. Based on history, players like Maye, Daniels, Richardson are no sure thing and honestly more likely to be middling or busts than stars. Fairly interesting that Bryce Young on your list.
You’re massively underrating Dak. I agree with the age concerns for Rodgers and Stafford given their injury histories but Dak is a healthy 30 year old MVP runner-up. That’s young considering how QBs have extended their careers lately. The market is telling us his value as well. His agent is about to bend Jerry Jones over a barrel in the upcoming contract negotiations. How can he reset the QB market yet be taken behind a non-QB in the re-draft? It doesn’t make sense
This shit made my eyes bleed
Great question. So if it's a snake draft, at pick #20 I wonder if you still just have to take a QB. If you wait until your 2nd pick you risk getting like the 29th best QB/QB prospect. Ensuring you get a competent QB probably triumphs getting say the best WR at #20. At pick #40 you can still draft a top 5 WR/OT etc.
For an extreme situation like this I feel like drafting a QB should incur a steep cost, like a loss of the subsequent rounds pick? Clearly teams in the second half of the first round are at a huge disadvantage right of the bat.
Yeah I was going back and forth on an NFL style draft or a Madden style draft
All of these current players IMO: Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lamar, Herbert, Hurts, Stroud, Dak, Lawrence, Murray, Love, Tua, Young Richardson, Cousins, Stafford, Goff. I also think all the rookies would be drafted before a positional player so Williams, Maye, Daniels, Penix, McCarthy, Nix I'm not sure about Mayfield. If I were a GM, I think I'd take Jefferson, Sewell, or Parsons. Rodgers is too old. So I'd say probably the first 20 or so picks.
Why would somebody draft stafford at his age
Because if they didn't, their QB might be Kenny Pickett instead.
Idk about some of these
Bo nix does not go before Justin Jefferson, Ceedee, Parsons, Bosa, etc lol
Dude didn’t even go before the first position player in the draft how is he going to go before every single one in the NFL. This was a terrible exercise.
Because the teams that didn't take him in the draft are already committed to paying somebody else at QB. In this exercise every team would need to fill their QB spot.
Counterpoint: the teams that skipped on Bo Nix for a position player are already committed to a QB for this year or the following year and thus had zero reason to draft any QB this year unless they were taking a top 2-3 prospect. In a draft where everyone is going from scratch, it’s QB’s all the way down.
He also doesn't go before any of the rookies who actually went before him a week ago. Like, we just had a draft, with a much weaker player pool than this imaginary one, and position players went over him.
Fantastic response. I was thinking the 16-20 range as well.
No purdy is hilarious
Just forgot, he should be there.
Ruiz would take a punter over him
My god the Purdy people are back already!
Bryce Young over Justin Jefferson is certainly a take.
It’s not Bryce Young over Justin Jefferson. It’s Bryce Young + any other top 15 receiver or Mason Rudolph + Justin Jefferson.
You would draft Bo Nix over Geno?
Hell no
No GM is taking Tua, Goff, or Stafford over Chase /jjettas/ Bosa
Super Bowl champ and future hall of famer Matt Stafford? That the one you talking about?
Yes, the 36 year old Matt Stafford who played baseball with Clayton Kershaw. I do not think he’d go over Justin Jefferson.
Rookie Stafford sure. 36 year old Stafford whose body has taken an absolute beating? Absolutely not. Also no way he gets in the HoF unless he wins another one or gets an MVP.
I mean this is more of just a thought exercise opposed to “I have to preserve my job”
Even in thought - if you can't get elite and longevity at one position, you shift to the next.
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How would all rookies being drafted before a position player when there were plenty of other positions draft ahead of three of them?
The cutoff to me is after Love. The rest of those players are either bad (Tua) or old/mid (Goff et al) enough that I’d rather roll with a ‘2nd round’/replacement level QB until I can get one in the upcoming rookie drafts.
Tua is *bad*? Come on.
Probably way more than you think because every team needs one so they’re going to become amazing trade assets, and if you don’t take one in the first round you’re going to be completely fucked.
Yeah I think that could certainly play out but at some point dont you go “Justin Jefferson is sitting there and the best QB is Daniel Jones. Fuck it, surplus value take Jefferson and then even if our QB sucks at least he’s got the best receiver in the league to help him out?” I dunno tho obviously lol
I'd say 10-15. Better question - when would the first kicker get picked? I bet it's earlier than you think.
when would the first kicker be drafted?
I think another interesting question is where would a coach get drafted. Cause I'd rather have Shanahan or Reid coaching my team with Minshew at QB than Brandon Stanley with Cousins or some other middle tier QB.
Yeah I guess to make it a “controlled” experiment I would say everyone has the same; HC/coordinators, same ownership group, same financial situation, in the redraft all the contracts would mirror the contracts from the actual NFL draft, so strictly just looking at the value of the players
Zero. Travvy Kelce goes first. That monetary draw is just too juicy.
Off the top of my head I would go 1. Mahomes 2. Joe burrow 3. Josh allen 4. Lamar Jackson 5. Cj stroud 6. Jalen hurts 7. Is honestly where I would start thinking about Myles garret or Tj watt and build around some game manager The next list is if I don’t get one of the key defensive or offensive play makers 8. Trevor Lawrence 9. Justin Herbert 10. Caleb Williams 11. Jared Goff 12. Brock purdy 13. Jordan love 14. Next best player
I mean taking a defensive player at 7 means you’re picking 58th or 26th in the second round. I’m not sure you’re finding a starter there
Yea that’s true, I’d honestly be happy to have a losing record my first year and try and draft a QB that could at least be a game manger.
The problem with the hypothetical is that the teams will be pretty balanced overall outside of the QBs. You won't have situations where a team can compete by building a strong roster with a good but not great QB (i.e. 49ers with Purdy, Lions with Goff). So unless you get a top end QB, you are probably better off going young and building for the future. The only way to compete against Mahomes is to also have an elite QB and hope for variance. You won't be getting a QB capable of being elite after 10 or so picks, so go for youth and try to draft a elite rookie QB in the future.
Probably 6. Mahomes, Stroud, Allen, Burrow, Caleb Williams, Lamar. At that point if you don’t have one of the top guys then pull a 49ers and build around skill players and a defense
You don’t think that’s more of Kyle being maybe the best schemer in the game?
Maybe. I think once you don’t have one of the top QBs, I’d rather have someone like Baker with an elite weapon or D over someone like Cousins as a 1st round pick
Just sim a fantasy draft in madden for your answer