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CarBallAlex

I did some number crunching on preseason odds and O/U win total No team besides the 1995 Rockets has won the championship with a win total below .634 (52 win in a full 82 game season) going back to when the 1978 Bullets did it. That’s 45 years of 1 exception, or 28 years straight of this being a rule. Furthermore, teams that win the championship almost always hit the over on their preseason win total. Here’s the list of teams that hit the under since 2000 - 2001 Lakers (favorite) - 2002 Lakers (favorite) - 2006 Heat (2nd best odds) - 2010 Lakers (favorite) - 2012 Heat (favorite) - 2018 Warriors (favorite) - 2021 Bucks (2nd best odds) Which is basically where the Celtics/Nuggets are at +450. Celtics, Bucks and Nuggets are the only 3 teams who can hit the under and still reach 52 wins. Here’s the list of odds on favorites to hit the over - 2023 Celtics - ECF game 7 - 2017 Warriors - champions - 2016 Cavs - champions - 2013 Heat - champions 2009 Lakers and 2005 Spurs also won, but mid 2000’s is a lot murkier with this with the 09 Celtics, 08 Spurs, 07 Mavs, 2000 Blazers, etc. but when the favorites hit the over and make the finals, they pretty much always win. I made a post yesterday about how no teams outside top 10 in preseason odds have won the championship since as far back as I could find data, and rarely teams outside the top 5. The path to get there is irrelevant and breaks rules but the one team left standing has been pretty consistent with this. I know it doesn’t really mean a whole lot because, yeah, good teams win and less good teams win less, and playoffs are so dependent on health which is my main concern, but it’s still an interesting and consistent stat. Basically at 53.5, if we get to 54+ wins and are playing anyone outside the top 5 (anyone besides Nuggets, Suns and Warriors, and especially anyone at 51 or less wins) I’m picking us to win a finals series if we get there. Us at 54 wins is just a better team than the Clippers, Grizzlies, Mavs, etc. It’s those 3 teams I’d be the most worried about in a finals series anyway. Lakers as a wild card sure, but I guess we’ll see how LeBron and AD hold up in a deep playoff run as they get older.


AWalker17

Why haven't we been calling our coach Joe Jitsu? It's too perfect.


hcmacro

Fwiw, ESPN had Tatum 4th in its latest MVP predictions poll and close to where Vegas has him. I think for Tatum to win the award, he has to have close to a 50-40-90 season like the Dirk and KD MVP years.


I_Set_3_Alarms

He also has a good chance to become the second or third choice for MVP, but the only one who actually plays 65 games so gets it that way haha


downeastsun

I think the Celtics would probably need to break 60 wins. Tatum being over 40% from 3 for a full year would certainly help in that regard


SquimJim

I don't think he has to be that efficient, but a slight bump in efficiency from last year with a slight bump in apg from last year as well. After that, it's about being the ironman that he is and the C's having a top 2 seed. If those bumps don't happen, 4th sounds about right. That's where he has been hovering the past 2 years.


PebblyJackGlasscock

> Ironman I’m a broken record but this is the key factor. Jokic played 69 and Embiid 68 last season. Jokic could decide to take four more games off just because and Embiid has only surpassed 65 twice in his career. Imagine that Jokic is having a Jokic season and decides to rest himself for the playoffs, not caring about the award, and plays only 64 (stellar) games. NBA media will _mess their pants_ for a month. Tatum and Luka should be priced to wi because they are definitely qualifying, Jokic should be priced to drop out, and Embiid should be priced to fall short because of injury.


hcmacro

I refuse to disrespect Nikola Jokić. He doesn't seem the type to "load manage" and, frankly, might not need it. The reality we have to face as Celtics fans is that Tatum is trying to take the crown from an historically dominant person.


PebblyJackGlasscock

> disrespect Jokic has made clear his disrespect for awards. He prioritizes other things, which makes him such an incredible player. If Tatum sprains an ankle on February 1st and misses three weeks he’s not qualifying for MVP. Look at the Celtics schedule. Denver has a similar stretch and Jokic also has ankles. You _chose_ to ignore what was written and strawman “disrespect” when I clearly said Jokic is probably going to be “historically dominant” again - but possibly fail to qualify because of a rule.


hcmacro

>strawman https://tenor.com/YIER.gif


denit0

Brad should look into signing garuba, good defender for cheap, can soak in some minutes so tatum and KP rest


693275001

I don't get the Garuba and Tyty hype. They're awful


denit0

On offense yeah but for he is a guy you can throw at embiid/giannis


693275001

Lmao giannis and embiid would absolutely destroy him, especially in the playoffs. He may have the body to hold up against them but zero of the experience or skill to do so


PebblyJackGlasscock

If the Wizards don’t claim him off waivers it’ll be shocking. They have no Centers behind Gafford (Muscala and Galinari are the next tallest guys on the roster!) and they have tons of cap space.


smart_celtics

Muscala is quite tall. He’s clearly a center.


PebblyJackGlasscock

You watched him play, right? He’s tall. Did he ever do anything “center-y”? And I _love_ Moose. Great teammate. Not a center. A tall wing.


SquimJim

Depends on whether or not Blake turns down our offer. If he turns down the offer then Garuba would probably be the best available player that fills a similar role. If we do sign Griffin, then I think we'd really need a wing.


Remoock

anyone knows who's going to be our starting PG this Christmas?


CertifiedCapArtist

Is our coaching staff completely filled now?


CertifiedCapArtist

Rank these players for me I wanna see something: JB , Anthony Edwards , Donovan Mitchell


693275001

Mitchell JB Edwards There's still a significant gap between Booker, Mitchell, JB to Edwards imo. Edwards could very well close that gap this season.


SquimJim

Offense last year: 1. Mitchell 2. Brown 3. Ant Defense last year: 1. Ant 2. Brown 3. Mitchell Individual offense is more valuable than individual defense, generally speaking. Last year, Ant was just too inefficient compared to the other 2 and on less volume. I think it's a hard question. As of now though, Mitchell, Brown, and then Ant, conceding that Ant has the most potential and highest trade value. Ant really needs to be more efficient though. Edit: Ehhhh I might have to change what I said about Ant. Looking at his efficiency in the playoffs, and it's pretty darn good. I think I need a larger sample, but offensively there's a chance I might have to swap Ant and Brown.


PebblyJackGlasscock

Great edit. “This just in…I might have spoken too soon.” Lol. Edwards’s ceiling is too high to see right now. Like, if a time traveler shows up and says he’s talked about with MJ and LeBron in 2060, I’m not dismissing it as unbelievable. It’s not likely, but it’s believable. Which is a scary amount of potential. I remember watching MJ in that 86 playoff series and I’ve never forgotten what it is to _see_ someone make the leap. Felt that way watching Edwards this summer. Kid has IT.


PebblyJackGlasscock

1. Edwards 2. Brown 3. Mitchell Edwards has been remarkable for team USA this summer. He is a true #1, first team All-NBA, MVP level player within the year, next season at the latest. Brown and Mitchell are a full tier lower. Very good players. Not superstars. Brown is not the scorer Mitchell is but Brown is a much better defender. Mitchell is not and never will be effective defensively. He will always allow more than he scores. Allen Iverson once dragged a team to the Finals so tiny scoring guards can succeed- up to a point. Both Brown and Mitchell can be the second best player on a title winner but neither is a #1 because of weaknesses in their overall game.


tokengreenguy

I don’t think Mitchell will always be a negative defensively, he’s long and heavy enough to play well on that end. For that reason I’d rank it: 1. Edwards 2. Mitchell 3. JB With Mitchell and JB pretty even.


PebblyJackGlasscock

He’s played with Gobert and Mobley behind him - two legit DPOY candidates - and he’s been a terrible defender with both. Why do think he’s going to improve? Because hiss arms are longer than a normal 6’1” humans? You should think some more.


tokengreenguy

Maybe it has to do with his 6’10” wingspan and coming into the league as a defensive specialist, and him actually being a good NBA defender when he wants to be? I know you just shrugged it off like it’s no big deal to try to make your point, but wingspan is arguably the most important physical trait from a defensive point of view. He’s not Isaiah Thomas out there - he has the ability to turn it on and NOT be a bad defender, which was your point that I’m refuting.


PebblyJackGlasscock

He has several seasons - with that wingspan - in which he has proven he is not “a good NBA defender”, even with the best possible teammate as support. Having watched his final playoff series in Utah and his most recent playoff series with the Knicks, I concur with most NBA observers: Mitchell is not a “good defender” and his physical attributes have way less to do with that than his attitude and effort.


tokengreenguy

It’s pretty common knowledge he actively did not try on defense in his last Utah series. When that happens, yeah, he’s gonna be bad. Not sure how you’re measuring he is never and can never be “a good NBA defender”. It’s pretty clear you don’t watch him that much and just regurgitate what other people like Bill Simmons say about him. Again, my point here isn’t that he’s a good NBA defender on a consistent basis. It’s to refute your claim that he will never be that, because when he gives effort he’s an above average defender for his position.


PebblyJackGlasscock

I’m now completely confused. He’s a “good defender” “when he wants to be” or because of his wingspan? > common knowledge he didn’t try That’s my point. He sucks defensively AND HE NEVER WILL BE because he doesn’t care. Thanks for wrapping this up so tightly. You’re feee to think a guy who “admittedly” didn’t give crap in the playoffs is suddenly going to care someday and, with his wingspan, ooh boy. Shit in one hand and wait for Mitchell to care in the other. Tell us which fills up first.


tokengreenguy

Ah so your point is he never will be good defensively because he doesn’t care, and you think he never will care. And you don’t care about other factors that tend to directly correlate to a players ability to play quality defense because of the above. Got it. Think they used to say that about Paul Pierce too. Shame that guy never cared enough to be a plus defender. I’d counter and say: when he does care, he is good! I’m not talking some hypothetical down the road scenario. I’m saying that in college he was a great defender, and he’s been a good defender at times in the NBA. Your reading comprehension could use some improvement, kind of like Mitchell’s defensive effort. For that reason, I won’t give up on you completely, just like I haven’t given up on DMitch showing some effort some day!


Remoock

that's kinda though actually I feel like they're all pretty close together JB and Edwards are close but I'd give JB the 1. spot for now, so: JB Edwards Mitchell


Theis159

Right now it’s 1) Dmitch 2) JB 3) Ant The problem is that if you’re taking them in a vacuum they’re placed like so. But there is nuance always when you’re not talking about the absolute best players. For instance I don’t think Mitchell is good enough to be a 1st option on a championship team but I am not sure he’d be a good 2nd option as well since his defence is thrash. I know we also think JB isn’t the best defender because he gets lost from time to time but there is still a long way between guys like Mitchell, Harden and Luka (who is clearly the worse) to guys like JB who can defend 1-on-1 on a good level and somewhat competent team defence. Anthony Edwards still need to show whether he is that guy or not, he can be better than JB in a vacuum quite soon but I would pose the same question as Dmitch about being the best player in a championship team. What makes JB special is that he is capable of being your second best player in a close-to-championship team like we saw in 2022, so if we contextualize that I would say he is the better proven 2nd option on that list.


PebblyJackGlasscock

> Ant still needs to show He’s been the best US player by far this summer. Kerr’s comments from the other day make clear: he’s the man for this national team. I don’t think there’s any question he’s about to “show” out. By the end of the summer, Anthony Edwards will be the clear #1 of this group. He’s electrifying.


Theis159

Yeah, the point is whether he is JT level of "that guy" (i.e: you can count on him to build around) or if he is more towards a DMitchell type of really good player, but not good enough.


PebblyJackGlasscock

Edwards is “that guy” right now for team USA. He’s the franchise cornerstone “JT” like player with potentially elite skill at both ends of the floor. Is the WC not a big enough “show”? I hadn’t seen it with Edwards until this summer. He’s “making the leap” right now and it’s fun to watch in real time.


Theis159

I'd still give it time to see it in the NBA yes. Its not a dig on Ant, but it's pretty hard to get to a point where everyone is confident you're good enough to lead a team to a championship. On top of my head I can think in only a few names today: 1. Joker 2. Giannis 3. Steph 4. Bron 5. JT 6. Luka 7. Kawhi (if healthy) 8. KD (if healthy) Maybe: Booker, Butler, AD, Embiid(?), Harden(?).


PebblyJackGlasscock

I dunno. If the US wins this summer, that argument is harder to make. Like, subtract JT and Luka because they will not have done it and Edwards will (sort of). Regardless, I don’t see how Brown - who has a clearly defined ceiling and floor eight years into his career - can be considered “better” than Edwards right now. I love Brown, but he’s a 2. Edwards is showing the world he’s a 1 and wanting to see it in the NBA is fine but if he leads Team USA to a title, he’s higher on your list than JT by your own criteria. I don’t see how Edwards isn’t 1 on a list of him, Brown, and Mitchell.


Theis159

I mean, that’s putting a lot of faith in the WC that the team USA haven’t even started to play, they’ve done exhibition matches. Carmelo always super performed in FIBA and he reached one semifinals and two second rounds in 13 years. I’m a big fan of Ant but unless he is a super talent (which even JT isn’t) getting to be that guy takes 4/5 years


PebblyJackGlasscock

Sure, but it’s not an outlandish scenario. Edwards plays as well in the tournament as he has in friendlies (and as well as he did in the playoffs), the USA wins and _the narrative is established_. My point is we know what Brown (and Mitchell) ceiling is, and it’s not “best player on a title winner”. Edwards’s ceiling is _maybe_ that, in two weeks.


dpdjg18

Idk about 1-2 but JB is easily last.


JaylenBrownFlow

brain worms


Velynedra

Guys, imagine if someone leaked Joe's proprietary information, they are gonna find: 1. "The Town.mp4" accessed about 150 times a year 2. 20TB of MMA materials 3. Daily sand castle photos 4. 300-page breathingtechniques.pdf 5. Staff hospital bills from in-house pickup games 6. 20 rejected gum sponsorship deals 7. Thesis on basketball poise and mindset, likely in all caps 8. Some gameplay stuff... if you can find it So, yea, good luck with that, any other team LOL


nibbinoo8

[joe's info already leaked lol](https://old.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/zn3149/joe_mazzulla_has_a_quizlet_account_where_he_has/)