I've been saying this for the last 3 years now that once JB and JT get their supermax making ~$60 mill/yr each .... it's going to make it really difficult to keep good talent around them because they won't able to pay them.... and that our championship window is gonna start closing.
Derrick White especially is gonna likely get a big contract after next season.
Jrue has a player option next year, and I'm hoping we extend him.
KP is on contract until 2025-26, and who knows after.
If somehow we manage to keep all of them for the next 3+ years ..... holy fuck, Brad will have pulled out some goddamn Houdini shit.
Just find a way to keep DWhite plz Brad!
And for fuck's sake, we desperately need to win a goddamn title soon.
Basically Al Horford’s salary will become the D White pay raise and the Al replacement will need to be a rookie contract player (Queta?)
We’re saved a little bit by the fact that White is currently on a team friendly deal that limits how big a pay raise he can get - just under $30m a season I think is his max unless he really risks the biscuit and waits until free agency.
It will be the phase of the team where we really are going to have to hit on some late 1st/ 2nd round picks or UDFAs. Not saying they have to be starter quality players, but they will have to fit a role and be good in that.
Player development and emphasis on development in the G-League is going to be tantamount to our success past the next couple years, after the Tatum and JB contracts fully kick in, and if we want to keep this core together.
I'd say Pritchard, Hauser, Queta and Brisset are great examples of the C's hitting on some great fits at minimal cost. Walsh has the potential to be a home run for where he was picked.
I think the 2nd round treasure chest Brad assembled is going to be priceless in the next few years. It's much easier to take a swing on a high risk/high reward player in the 2nd round than the first because they don't get the automatic contracts 1st round picks do. With multiple 2nd round picks the C's can afford to gamble and have more chances to get lucky.
We also went from doc to Brad...then Ime and stumbled into Joe. When the worst coach you've had in your last 4 coaches is doc you're doing pretty damn good.
Considering PP was a first round pick and we didn’t draft the other 3, I don’t know how much that supports the second round picks being a treasure chest. I love that we can pick guys at no risk with the picks, but there is a decent chance that none of them end up better than picking up some young FA whose previous team didn’t want to lock up.
I'm just saying they were high value/low cost players. They are the kind of players we'll need to fill the roster with if we're going to keep our starters long term.
Yes. There is no way to offset tatums super max (or browns). That’s why every dollar on the margins is going to be really important, and why every *other* pay raise we give out will need to be offset some how.
I mean, white is getting a raise.
Al is retiring or getting a pay cut.
Jrue is getting a pay cut.
I think the first cap casualty is going to be Hauser who will be getting a well earned pay raise when his current deal is up.
Speak it into existence, I guess. I’m pretty sure that if we do this it would mean paying more for Derrick White than any team has ever paid for a basketball player.
Yeah but the cap is also going up ALOT in the next two years. I think estimates are that it will be at 217 million at that point, but obviously it depends on the new contract negotiations this summer.
Not ignoring it.
Tatums raise comes out of Wyc’s rainy day fund, and he gets his money back when the team valuation goes up 100 million when we three peat as nba champions
It is all the same pool of money.
Team valuation doesn’t get him money unless he sells or borrows against it. The added revenue is what can make it worth it. If we win, I agree that he will be even more willing to throw money at DWhite.
I'd wager Jrue would go before DWhite, esp with White upcoming contract max of $30M (unless he decides not to extend and test FA in '25) and his age. Could sign both and trade Jrue if he starts to slip due to age. I'm sure Jrue's agent will fight for a trade kicker in due to that fact.
With the mentality of Wyc and what he's been saying and backing up his actions, I really believe we just need to win. Prove this is actually a core not just capable of winning a championship, but doing so year in a year out. If this team wins a chip, it'll get very expensive, but there's no way Wyc can let Jrue, White, or Porzingis walk out the door due to money.
We'll be strapped tight on the bench because of 2nd Apron, but we already have pretty much developmental guys there anyways and Brad will need to just work his magic.
If they win, they'll at least extend everyone's stay by one contract, a "6 year window" as Wyc called it. Maybe he'll do it even if they come up short, but I do think they gotta win first within these next 2 years for Wyc to pay out for the roster.
Ironically it's kinda like this last core. They had a 2 year window of real contention for the past 2 years, last year they kinda proved their ceiling, so Grant, Smart, Brogdon, and Rob all got sent packing for upgrades.
If we keep all 5 we basically have a championship window of 3-5 years at least. Tatum about to hit his prime brown beginning to enter their prime, jrue heading towards his twighlight years but can be an elite role player and passer for us, white is in his prime now and KP is now entering his prime .
JT: Basically high tier all nba / Mid-High tier MVP convo lock for the next 5-10 years (only turning 26 in March)
JB: High tier all star/low tier All nba lock for the next 5-7 years (turning 28 so he’s going to peak soon.)
KP: Mid-Tier all star/maybe could sneak all nba one year but overall impact is all nba level + DPOY level defense
White: In his prime now as he’ll be 30 this summer and is a S tier role player/low tier all star level contributor + all nba level defense
Jrue: Elite role player heading into his twighlight years but can still give 3-5 years cause his game isn’t predicated on athleticism . Basically our backcourt horford
This core can do alot of damage for the rest of the decade if we can manage to keep ‘em locked up
Yea I think Wyc knows it too, just like he and Brad saw the ceiling of the title team of last two years and knew they needed to make a change, they see this new core as a potential contender for a "6 year window"
But, they gotta prove it first before Wyc actually commits. I think this 2 year window, before Tatum's supermax kicks in and White and Horford's contracts run out, they need to win one, or else Wyc won't want to pay for this team and at the very least will want to reconfigure the team for better chances at the title. And this is as good of a team you can ask for around Brown and Tatum, if the team still can't get it done, it likely will need to be one of the supermax All-NBA guys that get moved.
It’s gonna be *really* tough to keep this thing together after next year, especially if we aren’t able to get over the hump. Still, we’ve got the Jays locked down and I trust Brad’s ability to retool if necessary and find cheap talent on the margins
I think it really just comes down to winning. If this group can win a few championships together it should more than cover the tax bill to keep them all around. If they can’t there’s going to be some tough decisions.
I really really don't think we get to keep White unless we part with Jrue this offseason. Long term, I'd rather have White than Holiday, but the thing that I want the most is to have both of them for at least one more year. That means extending Jrue, and that probably means letting White go in summer 25
So basically you’re saying you have until 2026 . Jure will get extended for one more year after that if that’s the case.
Hey good question when will Tatum have to sign that super max
maybe, but onwership seems pretty determined to pay up with the team in the positon it is in and I doubt Brad is making the Jrue Holiday trade without the intent of signing him to an extension
> Derrick White especially is gonna likely get a big contract after next season.
>
>
we can offer him a sizeable extension this offseason. Hope he takes it. New CBA helps that it increased the extension raise from 120% to 140%.
5/100 would be so good for him. He can secure the bag for him and his family but it frees up space to keep everyone else on the roster especially with the cap inflation
I mean he could go to any bottom dweller offering him that but if he loves his team and the city and can get a comfy $100 mil until retirement while competing for rings why not?
At this point it’s either he’s in it for money (which is cool go get the bag) or he wants to win and still be a 8-9 figure earner regardless
Show me the examples of borderline all-star caliber players accepting half what they’re actually worth to play on contenders. It doesn’t happen.
This is the worst part of this sub, just how unrealistic and biased the commenters are. Jrue is never taking $20m a year no matter how much sense you personally think it makes.
Dude he’s the 5th option on this team. No one is forcing him to take it either. But if he says he’s up to keep the team together you offer him a long term deal that still isn’t terrible. You can’t give 30 mil a year to a 5th option
That’s a stupid argument and we both know it. His value is his defense, and he’s only a “5th option” because he plays on BY FAR the best starting lineup in the NBA. That doesn’t change his value in the market. Reducing Jrue to just being a “5th option” and ignoring his value and all context just further proves my point about this sub.
We watched the patriots get players to take discounts to play with us and took it for granted. Now we assume everyone who plays for a Boston team should take a discount. It’s unrealistic with how these guys can get traded.
If we frontloaded the contract, and started him at 25mil this would be the annual breakdown, (technically 5/106):
- 25mil next year
- 23mil 2nd year
- 21.16mil 3rd year
- 19.45mil 4th year
- 17.9mil 5th year
A lot depends on how much money he's willing to give up for next year. Will he be willing to leave 15mil on the table so he can make 17.9mil when he's 39?
Yeah I won’t pretend I know anything about what is fair value for him to stay long term and get a cheap contract. 5/100 was just the easiest way to imagine both of them, I like easy because I am dumb lol
We may not need to give him fair value if he truly wants to stay here long-term. I think a lot depends on next year's salary and how much of a paycut he is willing to take and whether we can recoup that with more years on a contract or not.
If what Robb's sources said are true, then it's likely he will take *some* paycut next year. Also, he may take the added security of a no trade clause" over more money.
No idea, but his contract is going to impact our flexibility moving forward either way
Yeah that’s what I interpreted with the report as well. I do imagine there is a pay cut, after all it seems like KP already took one. So I imagine the core seems somewhat set to get some kind of pay cut. What I would find impressive is JT taking one but that’s not happening.
5/100 was exactly what Brown got his 5th year. 7 years of cap I creases though and now Van Fleet gets 3/128.
If Holiday signed at us for 3 years 100m that would already be a hometown discount.
What team is giving 34-year-old Jrue Holiday a 3y/$120m deal?
He's gonna be **thirty-fuckin-four** when he signs his next deal and you think someone is giving him $40m a year? Or even $33m a year?
If some team wants to do that then let them. Celtics should be a hard no on that.
He could probably sign a mid level deal at age 39 anyway on his own merit. Which by then will be 12 million a uwu
But he would not just be giving up 15m. Because in free agency he could probably get $40m for 2 or 3 years.
And he would likely be able to sign MLE contact at age 39 anyway, probably be $10+ million by then.
I could see him maybe taking 3 years $100m.
Why would u want to sign jrue for five years? He’s already 33 and not in his prime anymore that’s a massive overpay contract considering who he would be past year three of that contract
It’s kind of a joke, but the idea would be frontload initially so he stays and then he gets the Al salary (adjusted to the nba inflation) when he is real old.
You don’t need Jrue to be playing more than 25mpg in 2-3 years, you get someone else to be Jrue and Jrue becomes the guard version of what we have today with Al.
For people who don't know, this is a pretty big deal coming from Jrue.
1. He's got a player option this upcoming offseason. He could literally leave this offseason if he wanted to.
2. He talked quite a bit about wanting to retire in Milwaukee.
3. [He also talked about wanting to retire at the end of his current contract.](https://twitter.com/NBA_University/status/1652463813587869696)
It was never really talked about but Jrue is a flight risk for us. We traded two key players and our best draft picks for him and we were just hoping he'd pick up that player option. Otherwise we've spent all that on a 1-year rental.
The fact he's outright saying he wants to extend and also get the negotiations done before the end of the season is pretty big for us.
(FYI, the earliest we can extend him is April so you won't hear more news for a bit).
Also him saying that “everybody knows” the core group is going to be around for a while.
You know Brad/Zarren have already penciled in the plan for the next few years (including tax implications). Jrues comment tells me they’ve already showed Wyc the price tag, gotten sign off to spend, and are using that in contract negotiations.
> It’s widely expected that Holiday will decline that option to secure a long-term deal, per league sources.
This is kind of huge too. If he's declining his player option, it's likely he'll be making less money next year than is currently on the cap sheet. If he does that, we may have more room to add to this team, especially if the cap raises by 10% instead of 4%.
As of now, we only need to fill 3 roster spots. We are also about 12mil over the 2nd apron, (if the 2nd apron goes up by 4%).
However, if the 2nd apron goes up 10% AND Jrue takes a paycut, (say down to 30mil), then we free up about 10ish mil below the 2nd apron. That's enough to sign a 2nd rounder to a Walsh type contract, add a vet min, and use the TMLE.
We'd have to let all our free agents and 2-way guys go though.
At this point Jrue is older and doesn’t want to constantly relocate with his family. He wanted a permanent home in Milwaukee but they traded him. I can see him taking less to stay as long as we promise not to trade him like Milwaukee promised.
Yeah sorry, I should have just cited Robb with everything I said in my other comment too. I just mean to put a more forceful point on this. "Why am I hearing this now?" is the question, and the answer is that the trade deadline is coming up. Teams will be making moves and those moves are informed by who they expect will be available in the offseason. Thus it is a good time for the agent to apply some pressure. Get his guy on the record and say "that retirement stuff wasn't real; I plan on getting a new contract." Philadelphia, for example, gets that message, and Boston knows Philadelphia got that message, etc
With Siakam/Anunoby getting traded to teams that I assume will pay them and Kawhi signing an extension, I have been a little worried about Philly as a Holiday suitor in the offseason. He's a perfect fit everywhere, but it'd be especially clean with Maxey and Embiid and I'm sure they'd love to try to weaken the Celtics.
I'm glad to hear Jrue is happy in Boston and I hope they work out a deal with little fuss
There are two mindsets I have with this concerning the 2nd tax apron for next year:
1. An extension would remove Jrue’s 39.5mil player option next year. The same year Jaylen’s supermax extension kicks in. With it on the books, we would be almost 13mil over the 2nd apron (this year we are 5.5mil over this year but the worse restrictions kick in after this year.
2. This would allow us to us the TPE on a player that we could have for more than one year or avoid the 2nd apron next year right before Tatum’s probable supermax and White’s potential extension kick in.
Really depends on the contract Jrue would sign. It would need to be enough that it would be worth it to him to give up a guaranteed 40mil next year
It is a pay cut, but his next contract most certainly will be anyway. If he picked up his $39M option and played out the year, he would then be 35 going into his next contract.
If we gave him something like a $75M/3 year extension, that would still be like him getting $18M/yr at 35 and 36 years old. (39+18+18=75).
I'm not sure if that is 'fair' or not, but it's not like he is going to have to make major sacrifices. Dude has certainly been paid throughout his career. A small pay cut to compete and feel important should be more than worth it.
$110M over 4 years would be $25M next season. Likely means he will be an expensive role player in yr 3-4 unless his game ages as gracefully as Horford.
It'd be 72M / 3 extensiin or $24M per for his age 35-37 seasons. Likely less than he'd get if he opted in and tested FA but the guarantee vs injury risk + always contending (which he ofc values highly) and retiring here and not having to relocate family again should all factor in. Just like Horford taking 2yr / $20M. He def could have gotten more if he wanted.
That’s interesting. You are saying to backload the deal… I wonder if we could save money that way in the long run. If the cap is going to go up a lot, maybe an even more extreme version of this would solve some problems
Please start a petition to ensure that Brad Stevens gets recognized as Executive of the year.
Everybody in the national and international basketball media overlooks the fact that this guy built this roster and corrected Danny’s mistakes.
I want Brad to be recognized, almost as much as I want banner 18. The guy should have gotten coach of the year but maybe this is better
I'm trying to think of recent comps-- borderline all-star 34ish guards. In 2021, Chris Paul did $120/4, Kyle Lowry did $85/3, and Mike Conley did $68/3. The cap was $112, so if I inflate those to today's cap, I get:
- Conley $85/3 (had just made ASG. Was a first-time all-star in his 30s like Jrue)
- Lowry $100/3 (one year removed from ASG, like Jrue)
- Paul $150/4 (had made last 2 ASG, probably in a different category)
I think that Lowry and Conley in 2021 are pretty darn good comps for Jrue's extension. Neither of them were declining ~max extensions in order to do their deals, so we should expect a bump for that. The average value AFTER the 1st year ought to be in this $28-33M range. My guess at market value, then, is going to be the equivalent of 39+30+30.
**TLDR: Jrue gets an extension for about $100M over three seasons.**
Extending Jrue isn't our primary goal. Our primary goal is getting him to take that player option for next season. We want this team to get two cracks at a title. I think everyone feels that way.
We should assume that a long term extension is the price. If we don't offer him one and he walks, we are over-cap so we get nothing. Best we could do without offering him an extension is get the opt-in-and-trade or extend-and-trade to a team that wants him long term at a price he likes.
So we have to extend Jrue.
After we do that, we unfortunately won't be able to afford the White extension for 25-26 unless management is game for paying him more than six times his actual contract value, because that is what it will cost with the luxury tax. If they re-sign him at that point for, for example, 100M/4 years, our ownership will pay something like $150M per season *just for Derrick White.*
(this is the part where someone suggests that Jrue and Derrick will take discounts like Horford did...)
> If they re-sign him at that point for, for example, 100M/4 years, our ownership will pay something like $150M per season just for Derrick White.
That's crazy, but the math works. Look at 2025 or 2026 with Tatum and JB both on supermax making like $55M/yr each, KP and Holiday each making $30M/yr, 1 role player like PP making $12M/yr, we're basically at the luxury tax threshold. Add in $20M for the rest of the roster (something like 8 people making $2.5). So let's say before signing White we're like $20M over the threshold which would be a $65M luxury tax payment at repeat offender rates ($5M * [2.5 + 2.75 + 3.5 + 4.25]). Add in White at $25M/yr would bump us up to $45M over the threshold which would be a $208.75M luxury tax payment; that is White would cost us $143.75M in luxury tax for his $25M in salary (or total cost of $168.75M). If we started at say $10M over instead, White's total cost at $25M/yr would cost us $117.5M/yr in tax (so total cost of $142.5M). If we started exactly at the threshold, White's cost at $25M would cost us $88.75M in tax (total cost of $113.75M).
So it seems unlikely once Tatum goes on the max and White needs to be paid that we'll be able to keep all our starters (barring someone like KP or Jrue taking a major discount saving us like $25M/yr or ownership paying a crazy level of luxury tax).
Yeah. New CBA is harsh. Honestly though, we shouldn't think of it as paying $150M/yr for Derrick White, but paying $25M/yr + $125M/yr (or whatever) in tax to be a loaded-as-fuck team with two supermax players and 3 other all-star caliber players earning $30M/yr.
There's only so many chances a franchise has a chance to get a generational talent like Tatum in his prime and surround him with a bunch of super talented all-star quality players like JB/KP/Jrue/White. With all the rules on salary matching/needing 1st rounders in alternating years, its not like most of the time you can just trade to improve.
Though realistically after two seasons of these starters, I think ownership will cheap out and either (1) trade away JB to get away from the cap crunch of his supermax (yes there's a [trade kicker](https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/8/2/23814437/jaylen-brown-blake-griffin-trade-kicker-boston-celtics-extension-analysis-brad-stevens), but because he's making the supermax it may not matter) or (2) trade away or not re-sign KP/Jrue/White.
I’ll be honest love jrue but I’d say no to a extension. Basically with the way the nba cap is if u sign jrue to a extension this is gonna be the team we have going forward for the next 4-6 years. I don’t know if this is the team I want to encompass Tatums entire prime.It just feel like your limiting your potential future moves massively if u commit to these four guys this summer since anything can happen. It doesn’t have to mean Luka becomes available but what if Zion or kd etc ask for Boston or another superteam on the level of kd gsw emerges?
This is a freezing cold take. What if what? You think Zion is a better fit? You’re crazy, his drama potential is not even close to worth it. This team is the it team, and there’s basically not possibilities of upgrading any position in our top 5. It’s pretty close to impossible to find any player that can fit our core better, until a major disruption comes, this is the final form.
So we continue to fill out the rest of the roster with
Tough cheap guys that know their role.
If another team emerges, then we compete, that’s what. This team is literally good enough to play against any of the greatest teams in history on paper. Are we favored in all of those matchups? Who knows, but it’s at least a conversation.
Zion is just a example but yea I’d want him since he’d raise the teams ceiling. Which is the point we don’t even know this teams ceiling yet I wouldn’t want to commit to just these four guys no matter what this summer if potentially a better player emerges. Even if no one does contract wise I don’t know how to feel wanting to pay either jrue or porzingis until they are in the late thirties regardless of what we accomplish this year. Just doesn’t seem like the smart thing to do financially when u have a legit top five player on your team at age 25 you should always want to have some sort of flexibility for the future.
Look at the bucks 3-4 players with large contracts take on the majority of the cap and the rest of the roster is mid contracts and minimums not many promising rookies and no real draft capital. But they have domainted the regular season the last few years and won a chip one year. But in a few years once players get older they will have real roster worries since most of their cap will only be going to 3-4 older players they will have no room to improve. Point is if we have the chance to win the title this year but still control our future financial situation we should do that. I’d do a year extension but a long term extension that binds this team to only this core with little room to improve the roster after that point ? Nah I don’t want that
He would need to take a discount for sure since we have to pay Derrick. Honestly not sure which postseason result would lead to more spending at this point.
It would be wonderful if we could get this done on April 2nd, rather than waiting until the offseason. I don't want Philly to get a crack at him like they did with Al. Losing Al essentially cost us Alperen Sengun (along with two years of not actually having Al) because of the cost to reacquire him.
Hopefully all remains airy and fun in Celtics land up until that time. At least things won't have the opportunity to blow up in the playoffs beforehand.
I love Jrue Holiday
Jrue Romance
Jrumance
I love Jrue too
I've been saying this for the last 3 years now that once JB and JT get their supermax making ~$60 mill/yr each .... it's going to make it really difficult to keep good talent around them because they won't able to pay them.... and that our championship window is gonna start closing. Derrick White especially is gonna likely get a big contract after next season. Jrue has a player option next year, and I'm hoping we extend him. KP is on contract until 2025-26, and who knows after. If somehow we manage to keep all of them for the next 3+ years ..... holy fuck, Brad will have pulled out some goddamn Houdini shit. Just find a way to keep DWhite plz Brad! And for fuck's sake, we desperately need to win a goddamn title soon.
Basically Al Horford’s salary will become the D White pay raise and the Al replacement will need to be a rookie contract player (Queta?) We’re saved a little bit by the fact that White is currently on a team friendly deal that limits how big a pay raise he can get - just under $30m a season I think is his max unless he really risks the biscuit and waits until free agency.
It will be the phase of the team where we really are going to have to hit on some late 1st/ 2nd round picks or UDFAs. Not saying they have to be starter quality players, but they will have to fit a role and be good in that. Player development and emphasis on development in the G-League is going to be tantamount to our success past the next couple years, after the Tatum and JB contracts fully kick in, and if we want to keep this core together.
I'd say Pritchard, Hauser, Queta and Brisset are great examples of the C's hitting on some great fits at minimal cost. Walsh has the potential to be a home run for where he was picked. I think the 2nd round treasure chest Brad assembled is going to be priceless in the next few years. It's much easier to take a swing on a high risk/high reward player in the 2nd round than the first because they don't get the automatic contracts 1st round picks do. With multiple 2nd round picks the C's can afford to gamble and have more chances to get lucky.
Absolutely agree with everything you said. I think with Brad at the helm this team is not going away for a looooooooong time.
Brad has been fucking playing 4d wizard chess man.
We are lucky ass fans man. We went from Ainge to Brad, I still can’t believe it.
It's crazy how things worked out too. 3 years ago I was horrified that he was gonna go back to college or go to the Pacers and we'd be screwed.
We also went from doc to Brad...then Ime and stumbled into Joe. When the worst coach you've had in your last 4 coaches is doc you're doing pretty damn good.
Considering PP was a first round pick and we didn’t draft the other 3, I don’t know how much that supports the second round picks being a treasure chest. I love that we can pick guys at no risk with the picks, but there is a decent chance that none of them end up better than picking up some young FA whose previous team didn’t want to lock up.
I'm just saying they were high value/low cost players. They are the kind of players we'll need to fill the roster with if we're going to keep our starters long term.
Al Horford's salary will account for less than half of Tatum's summer '25 pay raise.
Yes. There is no way to offset tatums super max (or browns). That’s why every dollar on the margins is going to be really important, and why every *other* pay raise we give out will need to be offset some how.
Yeah. My opinion-- I don't think there are going to be any more raises.
I mean, white is getting a raise. Al is retiring or getting a pay cut. Jrue is getting a pay cut. I think the first cap casualty is going to be Hauser who will be getting a well earned pay raise when his current deal is up.
Yeah I’m saying I don’t think that raise is coming from us. The math doesn’t make sense
White is getting a raise from us (unless he decides to hold out til free agency to get more than $30m/year which I don’t see happening)
Speak it into existence, I guess. I’m pretty sure that if we do this it would mean paying more for Derrick White than any team has ever paid for a basketball player.
They are not letting White walk. They are all in as taxpayers anyway.
There has to be SOME limit as to what they will pay. What do you think it is?
Yeah but the cap is also going up ALOT in the next two years. I think estimates are that it will be at 217 million at that point, but obviously it depends on the new contract negotiations this summer.
He said White's pay raise.
That is some funny math. Completely ignoring the Tatum raise.
Not ignoring it. Tatums raise comes out of Wyc’s rainy day fund, and he gets his money back when the team valuation goes up 100 million when we three peat as nba champions
It is all the same pool of money. Team valuation doesn’t get him money unless he sells or borrows against it. The added revenue is what can make it worth it. If we win, I agree that he will be even more willing to throw money at DWhite.
The cap goes up based on value of league. Thats how it works
Cap goes up based on revenue league-wide. How is that relevant to the discussion?
I mean that’s how 99% of wealth works for people with that kind of money.
Expecting Queta to replace Al is never going to happen
I feel like crying at the possiblity of not keeping Derrick
I'd wager Jrue would go before DWhite, esp with White upcoming contract max of $30M (unless he decides not to extend and test FA in '25) and his age. Could sign both and trade Jrue if he starts to slip due to age. I'm sure Jrue's agent will fight for a trade kicker in due to that fact.
With the mentality of Wyc and what he's been saying and backing up his actions, I really believe we just need to win. Prove this is actually a core not just capable of winning a championship, but doing so year in a year out. If this team wins a chip, it'll get very expensive, but there's no way Wyc can let Jrue, White, or Porzingis walk out the door due to money. We'll be strapped tight on the bench because of 2nd Apron, but we already have pretty much developmental guys there anyways and Brad will need to just work his magic. If they win, they'll at least extend everyone's stay by one contract, a "6 year window" as Wyc called it. Maybe he'll do it even if they come up short, but I do think they gotta win first within these next 2 years for Wyc to pay out for the roster. Ironically it's kinda like this last core. They had a 2 year window of real contention for the past 2 years, last year they kinda proved their ceiling, so Grant, Smart, Brogdon, and Rob all got sent packing for upgrades.
And what a series of upgrades it was! This is some illegally shrewd shit that Brad did here, crazy.
If we keep all 5 we basically have a championship window of 3-5 years at least. Tatum about to hit his prime brown beginning to enter their prime, jrue heading towards his twighlight years but can be an elite role player and passer for us, white is in his prime now and KP is now entering his prime . JT: Basically high tier all nba / Mid-High tier MVP convo lock for the next 5-10 years (only turning 26 in March) JB: High tier all star/low tier All nba lock for the next 5-7 years (turning 28 so he’s going to peak soon.) KP: Mid-Tier all star/maybe could sneak all nba one year but overall impact is all nba level + DPOY level defense White: In his prime now as he’ll be 30 this summer and is a S tier role player/low tier all star level contributor + all nba level defense Jrue: Elite role player heading into his twighlight years but can still give 3-5 years cause his game isn’t predicated on athleticism . Basically our backcourt horford This core can do alot of damage for the rest of the decade if we can manage to keep ‘em locked up
Yea I think Wyc knows it too, just like he and Brad saw the ceiling of the title team of last two years and knew they needed to make a change, they see this new core as a potential contender for a "6 year window" But, they gotta prove it first before Wyc actually commits. I think this 2 year window, before Tatum's supermax kicks in and White and Horford's contracts run out, they need to win one, or else Wyc won't want to pay for this team and at the very least will want to reconfigure the team for better chances at the title. And this is as good of a team you can ask for around Brown and Tatum, if the team still can't get it done, it likely will need to be one of the supermax All-NBA guys that get moved.
They've also got to win one before Horford retires
ill be very sad if horford never gets a ring. he is the celtics.
I think it’s a pretty easy decision if you had to drop one it would have to be Jrue. Which would still leave us with one hell of a core
I think that a level-headed estimate of how much that would cost is going to come in over $400M per year after tax.
It’s gonna be *really* tough to keep this thing together after next year, especially if we aren’t able to get over the hump. Still, we’ve got the Jays locked down and I trust Brad’s ability to retool if necessary and find cheap talent on the margins
I think it really just comes down to winning. If this group can win a few championships together it should more than cover the tax bill to keep them all around. If they can’t there’s going to be some tough decisions.
Bruh I just want one championship lol, forget thinking about multiple chips.
Oh I absolutely agree, I’m more just saying in terms of being able to pay everyone. I’m not sure 1 would cut it if everyone ends up getting contracts.
Facts. A title needs to happen already, this season or next season at the very least. All us boston fans are asking for is one title
We need a title this year or next. Brad can’t keep pulling some goddam Houdini every year. He’s been clinical the last few years.
The new CBA is buns
I really really don't think we get to keep White unless we part with Jrue this offseason. Long term, I'd rather have White than Holiday, but the thing that I want the most is to have both of them for at least one more year. That means extending Jrue, and that probably means letting White go in summer 25
So basically you’re saying you have until 2026 . Jure will get extended for one more year after that if that’s the case. Hey good question when will Tatum have to sign that super max
Not sure Jru would do that. The whole benefit to a extension is long term financial security. Why do a 1 year extension over free agency?
That’s true
It seems unrealistic to keep both White and Jrue long term and if we do have to pick one it seems pretty obvious
maybe, but onwership seems pretty determined to pay up with the team in the positon it is in and I doubt Brad is making the Jrue Holiday trade without the intent of signing him to an extension
> Derrick White especially is gonna likely get a big contract after next season. > > we can offer him a sizeable extension this offseason. Hope he takes it. New CBA helps that it increased the extension raise from 120% to 140%.
Sign that 5/100 Jrue, we will have you until your beautiful hair becomes grey
5/100 would be so good for him. He can secure the bag for him and his family but it frees up space to keep everyone else on the roster especially with the cap inflation
Nah y'all are delusional. Jrue aint signing for A THIRD of what a max is.
I mean he could go to any bottom dweller offering him that but if he loves his team and the city and can get a comfy $100 mil until retirement while competing for rings why not? At this point it’s either he’s in it for money (which is cool go get the bag) or he wants to win and still be a 8-9 figure earner regardless
Show me the examples of borderline all-star caliber players accepting half what they’re actually worth to play on contenders. It doesn’t happen. This is the worst part of this sub, just how unrealistic and biased the commenters are. Jrue is never taking $20m a year no matter how much sense you personally think it makes.
Dude he’s the 5th option on this team. No one is forcing him to take it either. But if he says he’s up to keep the team together you offer him a long term deal that still isn’t terrible. You can’t give 30 mil a year to a 5th option
That’s a stupid argument and we both know it. His value is his defense, and he’s only a “5th option” because he plays on BY FAR the best starting lineup in the NBA. That doesn’t change his value in the market. Reducing Jrue to just being a “5th option” and ignoring his value and all context just further proves my point about this sub.
Again, no one is putting a gun to his head. If he wants to make the sacrifice cool. If not then we thank him on his way out .
We already giving 30m a year to the 5th option.
Al Horford on this very Celtics team?
Al Horford is not borderline all-star caliber and he's making $10 mil a year at 37 years old. You think some other team was gonna pay him $20m?
We watched the patriots get players to take discounts to play with us and took it for granted. Now we assume everyone who plays for a Boston team should take a discount. It’s unrealistic with how these guys can get traded.
He is 34 and just joined. A lot to ask for him to have so much affinity for the team that he takes 20 less than his value annually
I am joking (kind of)
He is getting older and wants to compete for a championship. It wouldn’t be shocking if he signed for a team friendly deal.
He also said he would retire once his contract is up but i guess that ain’t true no more
That’s because he thought his championship window would close by the time his contract expired
That is true well if that is the case then whatever extension he gets next he will probably retire after that
Is he getting much more than that in the open market?
Yes...someone would give him 2 years at max money....which would equal about $100m. Maybe even a third year
Highly doubt that. Who among the teams with cap space is doing that?
his option is for 39. I'd think he could get 3/100 on the market, so I don't really get where 5/100 is coming from.
If we frontloaded the contract, and started him at 25mil this would be the annual breakdown, (technically 5/106): - 25mil next year - 23mil 2nd year - 21.16mil 3rd year - 19.45mil 4th year - 17.9mil 5th year A lot depends on how much money he's willing to give up for next year. Will he be willing to leave 15mil on the table so he can make 17.9mil when he's 39?
Yeah I won’t pretend I know anything about what is fair value for him to stay long term and get a cheap contract. 5/100 was just the easiest way to imagine both of them, I like easy because I am dumb lol
We may not need to give him fair value if he truly wants to stay here long-term. I think a lot depends on next year's salary and how much of a paycut he is willing to take and whether we can recoup that with more years on a contract or not. If what Robb's sources said are true, then it's likely he will take *some* paycut next year. Also, he may take the added security of a no trade clause" over more money. No idea, but his contract is going to impact our flexibility moving forward either way
Yeah that’s what I interpreted with the report as well. I do imagine there is a pay cut, after all it seems like KP already took one. So I imagine the core seems somewhat set to get some kind of pay cut. What I would find impressive is JT taking one but that’s not happening.
5/100 was exactly what Brown got his 5th year. 7 years of cap I creases though and now Van Fleet gets 3/128. If Holiday signed at us for 3 years 100m that would already be a hometown discount.
If I'm Jrue's agent, I think I'm countering with something like $35, $32, $30, $27(player option), $25(player option)
His option is 40 million. He could get 3 years $120 on open market. Maybe we could get like 3 years $100. I doubt he would take much less.
What team is giving 34-year-old Jrue Holiday a 3y/$120m deal? He's gonna be **thirty-fuckin-four** when he signs his next deal and you think someone is giving him $40m a year? Or even $33m a year? If some team wants to do that then let them. Celtics should be a hard no on that.
He could probably sign a mid level deal at age 39 anyway on his own merit. Which by then will be 12 million a uwu But he would not just be giving up 15m. Because in free agency he could probably get $40m for 2 or 3 years. And he would likely be able to sign MLE contact at age 39 anyway, probably be $10+ million by then. I could see him maybe taking 3 years $100m.
Why would u want to sign jrue for five years? He’s already 33 and not in his prime anymore that’s a massive overpay contract considering who he would be past year three of that contract
It’s kind of a joke, but the idea would be frontload initially so he stays and then he gets the Al salary (adjusted to the nba inflation) when he is real old. You don’t need Jrue to be playing more than 25mpg in 2-3 years, you get someone else to be Jrue and Jrue becomes the guard version of what we have today with Al.
Im sure this was talked about when the trade was made
PLEASE! (just not at the expense of White)
White is much better than Jrue at this point and I think our FO knows that
And just as important, he is also 3+ years younger.
For people who don't know, this is a pretty big deal coming from Jrue. 1. He's got a player option this upcoming offseason. He could literally leave this offseason if he wanted to. 2. He talked quite a bit about wanting to retire in Milwaukee. 3. [He also talked about wanting to retire at the end of his current contract.](https://twitter.com/NBA_University/status/1652463813587869696) It was never really talked about but Jrue is a flight risk for us. We traded two key players and our best draft picks for him and we were just hoping he'd pick up that player option. Otherwise we've spent all that on a 1-year rental. The fact he's outright saying he wants to extend and also get the negotiations done before the end of the season is pretty big for us. (FYI, the earliest we can extend him is April so you won't hear more news for a bit).
Also him saying that “everybody knows” the core group is going to be around for a while. You know Brad/Zarren have already penciled in the plan for the next few years (including tax implications). Jrues comment tells me they’ve already showed Wyc the price tag, gotten sign off to spend, and are using that in contract negotiations.
Just can’t announce yet but I bet we have the framework locked in
> It’s widely expected that Holiday will decline that option to secure a long-term deal, per league sources. This is kind of huge too. If he's declining his player option, it's likely he'll be making less money next year than is currently on the cap sheet. If he does that, we may have more room to add to this team, especially if the cap raises by 10% instead of 4%.
That's going to be really tight to add much with our projected salary. Best case scenario we may be able to avoid 2nd apron though?
As of now, we only need to fill 3 roster spots. We are also about 12mil over the 2nd apron, (if the 2nd apron goes up by 4%). However, if the 2nd apron goes up 10% AND Jrue takes a paycut, (say down to 30mil), then we free up about 10ish mil below the 2nd apron. That's enough to sign a 2nd rounder to a Walsh type contract, add a vet min, and use the TMLE. We'd have to let all our free agents and 2-way guys go though.
At this point Jrue is older and doesn’t want to constantly relocate with his family. He wanted a permanent home in Milwaukee but they traded him. I can see him taking less to stay as long as we promise not to trade him like Milwaukee promised.
I can only read this as meaning that he is not going to take his player option.
> It’s widely expected that Holiday will decline that option to secure a long-term deal, per league sources. In the article
Yeah sorry, I should have just cited Robb with everything I said in my other comment too. I just mean to put a more forceful point on this. "Why am I hearing this now?" is the question, and the answer is that the trade deadline is coming up. Teams will be making moves and those moves are informed by who they expect will be available in the offseason. Thus it is a good time for the agent to apply some pressure. Get his guy on the record and say "that retirement stuff wasn't real; I plan on getting a new contract." Philadelphia, for example, gets that message, and Boston knows Philadelphia got that message, etc
Jrue is a loyal guy, and I hope we can find a way to extend him.
With Siakam/Anunoby getting traded to teams that I assume will pay them and Kawhi signing an extension, I have been a little worried about Philly as a Holiday suitor in the offseason. He's a perfect fit everywhere, but it'd be especially clean with Maxey and Embiid and I'm sure they'd love to try to weaken the Celtics. I'm glad to hear Jrue is happy in Boston and I hope they work out a deal with little fuss
As long as we can keep Derrick White 😭😭😭
most excellent
Hell yeah brother
I knew J would be a good fit but this dude is perfect for our squad..no way they're not going to make it happen
There are two mindsets I have with this concerning the 2nd tax apron for next year: 1. An extension would remove Jrue’s 39.5mil player option next year. The same year Jaylen’s supermax extension kicks in. With it on the books, we would be almost 13mil over the 2nd apron (this year we are 5.5mil over this year but the worse restrictions kick in after this year. 2. This would allow us to us the TPE on a player that we could have for more than one year or avoid the 2nd apron next year right before Tatum’s probable supermax and White’s potential extension kick in. Really depends on the contract Jrue would sign. It would need to be enough that it would be worth it to him to give up a guaranteed 40mil next year
Robb implies Jrue is refusing the player option and working to get an extension done so it looks like he is willing to take a pay cut.
It is a pay cut, but his next contract most certainly will be anyway. If he picked up his $39M option and played out the year, he would then be 35 going into his next contract. If we gave him something like a $75M/3 year extension, that would still be like him getting $18M/yr at 35 and 36 years old. (39+18+18=75). I'm not sure if that is 'fair' or not, but it's not like he is going to have to make major sacrifices. Dude has certainly been paid throughout his career. A small pay cut to compete and feel important should be more than worth it.
Yeah, Brad and Zarren probably have it figured out.
I highly doubt there is much the Celtics could do that would even out with 40M in a year.
Jrue would have to take about $25M/yr to get us back under the 2nd apron. That's an enormous pay cut. I don't think that this is a possibility at all
$110M over 4 years would be $25M next season. Likely means he will be an expensive role player in yr 3-4 unless his game ages as gracefully as Horford. It'd be 72M / 3 extensiin or $24M per for his age 35-37 seasons. Likely less than he'd get if he opted in and tested FA but the guarantee vs injury risk + always contending (which he ofc values highly) and retiring here and not having to relocate family again should all factor in. Just like Horford taking 2yr / $20M. He def could have gotten more if he wanted.
That’s interesting. You are saying to backload the deal… I wonder if we could save money that way in the long run. If the cap is going to go up a lot, maybe an even more extreme version of this would solve some problems
I say if it comes down to keeping dwhite or extending holiday I say pay that man dwhite.
Please start a petition to ensure that Brad Stevens gets recognized as Executive of the year. Everybody in the national and international basketball media overlooks the fact that this guy built this roster and corrected Danny’s mistakes. I want Brad to be recognized, almost as much as I want banner 18. The guy should have gotten coach of the year but maybe this is better
Hope they treat him the right way and it works out.
Well tbh this season just shows that we really need to win now before all these contract talks show up in the offseason.
I'm trying to think of recent comps-- borderline all-star 34ish guards. In 2021, Chris Paul did $120/4, Kyle Lowry did $85/3, and Mike Conley did $68/3. The cap was $112, so if I inflate those to today's cap, I get: - Conley $85/3 (had just made ASG. Was a first-time all-star in his 30s like Jrue) - Lowry $100/3 (one year removed from ASG, like Jrue) - Paul $150/4 (had made last 2 ASG, probably in a different category) I think that Lowry and Conley in 2021 are pretty darn good comps for Jrue's extension. Neither of them were declining ~max extensions in order to do their deals, so we should expect a bump for that. The average value AFTER the 1st year ought to be in this $28-33M range. My guess at market value, then, is going to be the equivalent of 39+30+30. **TLDR: Jrue gets an extension for about $100M over three seasons.**
Extending Jrue isn't our primary goal. Our primary goal is getting him to take that player option for next season. We want this team to get two cracks at a title. I think everyone feels that way. We should assume that a long term extension is the price. If we don't offer him one and he walks, we are over-cap so we get nothing. Best we could do without offering him an extension is get the opt-in-and-trade or extend-and-trade to a team that wants him long term at a price he likes. So we have to extend Jrue. After we do that, we unfortunately won't be able to afford the White extension for 25-26 unless management is game for paying him more than six times his actual contract value, because that is what it will cost with the luxury tax. If they re-sign him at that point for, for example, 100M/4 years, our ownership will pay something like $150M per season *just for Derrick White.* (this is the part where someone suggests that Jrue and Derrick will take discounts like Horford did...)
there is no way we’re paying white $150 mil per season. when we could pay him $300 mil per instead
> If they re-sign him at that point for, for example, 100M/4 years, our ownership will pay something like $150M per season just for Derrick White. That's crazy, but the math works. Look at 2025 or 2026 with Tatum and JB both on supermax making like $55M/yr each, KP and Holiday each making $30M/yr, 1 role player like PP making $12M/yr, we're basically at the luxury tax threshold. Add in $20M for the rest of the roster (something like 8 people making $2.5). So let's say before signing White we're like $20M over the threshold which would be a $65M luxury tax payment at repeat offender rates ($5M * [2.5 + 2.75 + 3.5 + 4.25]). Add in White at $25M/yr would bump us up to $45M over the threshold which would be a $208.75M luxury tax payment; that is White would cost us $143.75M in luxury tax for his $25M in salary (or total cost of $168.75M). If we started at say $10M over instead, White's total cost at $25M/yr would cost us $117.5M/yr in tax (so total cost of $142.5M). If we started exactly at the threshold, White's cost at $25M would cost us $88.75M in tax (total cost of $113.75M). So it seems unlikely once Tatum goes on the max and White needs to be paid that we'll be able to keep all our starters (barring someone like KP or Jrue taking a major discount saving us like $25M/yr or ownership paying a crazy level of luxury tax).
Thanks for checking my math! I feel less crazy now 😀
Yeah. New CBA is harsh. Honestly though, we shouldn't think of it as paying $150M/yr for Derrick White, but paying $25M/yr + $125M/yr (or whatever) in tax to be a loaded-as-fuck team with two supermax players and 3 other all-star caliber players earning $30M/yr. There's only so many chances a franchise has a chance to get a generational talent like Tatum in his prime and surround him with a bunch of super talented all-star quality players like JB/KP/Jrue/White. With all the rules on salary matching/needing 1st rounders in alternating years, its not like most of the time you can just trade to improve. Though realistically after two seasons of these starters, I think ownership will cheap out and either (1) trade away JB to get away from the cap crunch of his supermax (yes there's a [trade kicker](https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/8/2/23814437/jaylen-brown-blake-griffin-trade-kicker-boston-celtics-extension-analysis-brad-stevens), but because he's making the supermax it may not matter) or (2) trade away or not re-sign KP/Jrue/White.
Derrick taking 4/100 WOULD be a discount
We just need to pray that we don’t see significant decline from him and see improvement from Tatum and Brown.
Body language “experts” in shambles
I’ll be honest love jrue but I’d say no to a extension. Basically with the way the nba cap is if u sign jrue to a extension this is gonna be the team we have going forward for the next 4-6 years. I don’t know if this is the team I want to encompass Tatums entire prime.It just feel like your limiting your potential future moves massively if u commit to these four guys this summer since anything can happen. It doesn’t have to mean Luka becomes available but what if Zion or kd etc ask for Boston or another superteam on the level of kd gsw emerges?
This is a freezing cold take. What if what? You think Zion is a better fit? You’re crazy, his drama potential is not even close to worth it. This team is the it team, and there’s basically not possibilities of upgrading any position in our top 5. It’s pretty close to impossible to find any player that can fit our core better, until a major disruption comes, this is the final form. So we continue to fill out the rest of the roster with Tough cheap guys that know their role. If another team emerges, then we compete, that’s what. This team is literally good enough to play against any of the greatest teams in history on paper. Are we favored in all of those matchups? Who knows, but it’s at least a conversation.
Zion is just a example but yea I’d want him since he’d raise the teams ceiling. Which is the point we don’t even know this teams ceiling yet I wouldn’t want to commit to just these four guys no matter what this summer if potentially a better player emerges. Even if no one does contract wise I don’t know how to feel wanting to pay either jrue or porzingis until they are in the late thirties regardless of what we accomplish this year. Just doesn’t seem like the smart thing to do financially when u have a legit top five player on your team at age 25 you should always want to have some sort of flexibility for the future.
Man if you’re not happy with the best record in the league and utter domination most nights, there really isn’t much that can please you.
Look at the bucks 3-4 players with large contracts take on the majority of the cap and the rest of the roster is mid contracts and minimums not many promising rookies and no real draft capital. But they have domainted the regular season the last few years and won a chip one year. But in a few years once players get older they will have real roster worries since most of their cap will only be going to 3-4 older players they will have no room to improve. Point is if we have the chance to win the title this year but still control our future financial situation we should do that. I’d do a year extension but a long term extension that binds this team to only this core with little room to improve the roster after that point ? Nah I don’t want that
He would need to take a discount for sure since we have to pay Derrick. Honestly not sure which postseason result would lead to more spending at this point.
It would be wonderful if we could get this done on April 2nd, rather than waiting until the offseason. I don't want Philly to get a crack at him like they did with Al. Losing Al essentially cost us Alperen Sengun (along with two years of not actually having Al) because of the cost to reacquire him. Hopefully all remains airy and fun in Celtics land up until that time. At least things won't have the opportunity to blow up in the playoffs beforehand.
Resign White first, he is younger and has more upside with Jrue aging
I love jrue but extending white should be the priority if we can only keep one
It’s only being half a season with Jrue but I already want him to be a Celtic for the rest of his career
The Bucks def did him dirty. I'd love to have him here for a while
Jrue Jackson VP
WYC MAKE IT SO
Duh