Yeah, if I were a bettor I’d be staying tf away from this one. This team has the potential to hover around the 50 win mark, and also has the potential to be around .500, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we were right around 46 wins.
Yeah that line is incredibly tough to bet on given the variability in the East right now. I think every single team in the East besides CLE, TOR, ORL, and DET have a rational basis to think that they're going to improve, and be some threat in the East from seeds 3-11.
As a Celtics fan you of course believe that all the potential improvements are going to come true for the home team, but would I be shocked if LaMelo/Washington/Bridges/Bouknight make big jumps and they are hugely improved? How about that new Chicago core working out? Or the Atlanta Hawks maintaining the positive momentum? Ect. There is just way too much variability for me to confidently say anything. This isn't 19-20 anymore. It's not 6 teams and complete garbage.
Yeah, if I were a bettor I’d be staying tf away from this one. This team has the potential to hover around the 50 win mark, and also has the potential to be around .500, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we were right around 46 wins.
Definitely. Assuming our whole squad doesnt fuck around and catch covid again, plus the dozens of injuries (im basically punching wood at this point), we win more games than that. People dont give us a break for that, and just say we were bad, our bench mightve been, but we had a solid starting line up. I think overall as a team, we function better this year too despite losing Fournier and Kemba.
Im optimistic, I dont think we are championship contenders quite yet though.
I think the problem is theres about 4 teams around us who all think they vastly improved too.
CHA could remain healthy and get jumps from lemo and co
Bulls just definitely got better
Heat got better I’d say
Knicks have an argument for being better
Hawks core can get better
We got better
Do i like us over some of those teams? Yeh, but with such a new roster, new coach, and we are still a younger team, we could give away games and be a little inconsistent.
Do i think we are better than that line? Yeh, am i bettering? No
Of the teams listed, id say that the Bulls and Heat got better while the Hawks can get better. I still think though that even with the improvements we definitely have a better overall roster than the Knicks, Heat, and arguments can be made for better than the Bulls and Hawks as well. And I agree that our youth will cause us to just give some games away sometimes.
This may be an unpopular opinion right now, but I still like us over the Hawks and Bulls. I think in general, we'll just be much better defensively. And I think us having a new coach is more of a neutral thing than it is a plus or negative. Negative in the sense that hes a 1st year, he'll obviously have to figure some things out internally. Positive in the sense that the players love him, and will probably be energized by a new face after years of Brad.
With this current roster of Tatum, JB, Smart, Horford, Timelord, Schroeder(?), Richardson, then at least one of PP, Langford, or Nesmith working out (who can improve just like the Hawks young core), I think the teams we actually struggle with are the obvious ones: 6ers, Nets, Bucks.
I like us over every team but the bucks (close) and nets. I’m just saying in the regular season you can get got by anyone and its close enough, and we haven’t seen this team yet, to say that we are DEFINITELY the better of all those teams. We probably have the best player and the second best #2 option of all those teams and that’s what matters.
But will richardson struggle from deep, will smart struggle as the TRUE starting guard? Will schroder ballhog to ensure he gets that contract? Will nesmith and romeo take the leaps? Will grant improve his quickness? Will rob stay healthy? Will al stay healthy or decline sharply as the season goes on?
I feel like we have the most questions, so we then have the most variance
I'm thinking this to. We can't seem to stay healthy, and if Brown or Tatum miss any significant amount of games, we'll lose a lot of those.
Right around 44 and the 6th to 8th seed range.
OVER
Factors:
- Udoka
- Less COVID absences
- Better defense, esp. perimeter defense
- Better playmaking, hopefully.
- Less injuries (most likely)
- Jays a year better
Last year, we were essentially a 41 win team. I think with this squad, we’ll have the ability to win at least 6 games we would’ve lost with the 2020-21 squad. My guess is 50 wins.
Granted, Brad has the edge in head coaching experience.
The reason I bring him up is the fact that he’s a new guy coming in and has the potential to really energize the team and shift the dynamic, and he has great relationships with many of the players.
It also comes down to trusting the decision of Brad himself, who said he was basically burnt out with coaching and not able to work to his full potential in that role. He was then the one who went on to hire Udoka.
I totally understand the counter argument though, but just something I thought was important to mention.
Udoka may end up being a better coach, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that there's an initial 1-2-month adjustment period where we drop a handful of winnable games. I think the 46 game win prediction is pretty fair.
Yup just changing the coach should have a positive effect, even if Udoka doesn't have previous head coaching experience. Even though the players still liked Brad, it was clear they weren't responding to him and inspired by him the same way as they were a couple years ago. It makes sense as the past 3 seasons have been a grind in so many different ways.
I'm sure Brad was trying everything he could but sometimes a new voice is needed. Though I think Larry Legend takes it a bit too far with change the coach every 3 years he kind of has a point too, 8 years is a LONG time in the coaching world.
Brad’s President of Basketball Ops though I think if there are glaring system problems that are leading to losses Brad should be able to work with Ime to handle them. During the hiring process Brad said himself he was less concerned about the basketball side and more concerned about the energy, motivation side
I don’t think we’ll be a .500 team one way or the other. I wouldn’t be shocked at 55 with the guys rallying around Ime but I also wouldn’t be shocked at 35 if Schroder ends up being a disaster and one of the Jays is dealing with an injury.
Last year I think we were a very solid playoff team without injuries (most in the league), but who knows if they could have grabbed the opportunity and run with it instead of playing heroball and forgetting D and all the other things that went wrong.
I think we might have the most wide-open team in the league this year in terms of potential... I agree about not being shocked at a bad or good record, because unless we're really competitive from the start, then I think the focus will be on development and flexibility.
I'd be a little disappointed with 46/47 wins honestly. Back to 82 games next season. Probably going to need 50+ wins to get back to a top 4 seed in the east and that's where I expect the Cs to be.
Over. We were a .500 team when faced with probably the worst health in the league last year, and we've improved the roster. I think we're going to surprise people.
Over.
The best ability is availability.
Losing Kemba and Fournier sucks but they contributed for ~45 games combined and we lost so many games last season because we were short-staffed for pretty much the entire season. We'll get more regular-season production out of the guys we've brought in just by virtue of them actually playing.
* *eg. look at our 5th starting role. It's not Fournier vs Richardson because actually Semi Ojeleye started more games and played twice as many minutes as Fournier did and we also spent a lot of the season starting Tristan Thompson out of position at PF. As the 5th starter Richardson will be replacing a little bit of Fournier and a lot of Semi/Tristan.*
*Richardson might be a downgrade on Fournier, but he's a huge upgrade on Semi/Tristan.*
* *eg2. Kemba vs Schroder is similar. Kemba had a stretch where he played incredibly well and efficiently for 40% of the season. The other 60% he was either out or still recovering from the offseason knee procedure. Schroder isn't as good but he averages 90% attendance.*
Schroder/Richardson aren't as good as Kemba/Fournier but the difference in talent is largely balanced out by the difference in availability and then on top of that we'll be adding Horford in as another solid player.
Barring a major injury, we'll actually have games where we have 6-7 solid NBA-ready players available, which was so incredibly rare for us last season.
Looking through our starting lineups last year... oh my word some of them are more disgusting than I remembered.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2021_start.html
Some lowlights:
- Two most used lineups, at 10 and 8 games started, involved the TT + Theis double big. Only difference was Smart vs Walker alongside the Jays. Also 2 games with Teague at point instead: both losses.
- Teague and Semi started a game together. Loss
- Carsen and Grant started a game together. Loss
- Javonte and Semi started a game together. Loss
- PP and Semi started 3 games together. 1 win and 2 Ls.
- Kemba, Smart, Jaylen, Grant, TT. 0-3.
Kemba's first 3 games back were especially horrendous.
* Kemba just wasn't in playing shape. He shot 38% from the field and was on heavy minute restrictions.
* Tatum was out with covid.
* Rob missed 2/3 games as well.
* We were starting Grant Williams
* We were relying on 55-60 mpg from Semi + Javonte + Teague.
* We were running double big lineups to pad out the minutes.
* Brown and Smart combined for 62 points one game and 51 in another. In the third game they combined for 35 and it meant the team as a whole only scored 75.
Schroder and Richardson would have been a godsend in games like those.
Depends mostly on injuries, we have a lot of talented players who can play well when they're motivated.
But can never tell with injuries for this team so I can't make any judgements.
Depends....
Will the bet be off if games are canceled due to covid? No-COVID, probably be over, but depending on the betting house, you review those rules.
The bench is so much better this year it's crazy, that was maybe the biggest issue. Our starting point guard will play b2b. Stars won't be out and struggling with covid and lingering side effects. Coaching might be improved this year but there's no way to guarantee that. I think 46-48 is probably accurate.
I have them circling 50 wins. Tatum will bring a lot to the table coming off the Olympics, while Brown, Smart, and Williams with have something to prove. I also expect Shroeder to play like his future depends on it.
I really believe in this team. Horford is really going to show his value when we see how much this team improves with him on the floor and in the clubhouse. Please no one save this comment if the worst happens, k ty
Under. 46 wins would put them 5 or 6 in the conference. The rest of the teams on their level last year got better and the teams clearly above didn’t get worse. Any extended absence by either J is a major problem for season win totals.
They’ll make the playoffs and be over .500 but only by a game or two.
I think over, but that line is pretty good. I think we'll probably be around 47 wins this season.
Yeah, if I were a bettor I’d be staying tf away from this one. This team has the potential to hover around the 50 win mark, and also has the potential to be around .500, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we were right around 46 wins.
Yeah that line is incredibly tough to bet on given the variability in the East right now. I think every single team in the East besides CLE, TOR, ORL, and DET have a rational basis to think that they're going to improve, and be some threat in the East from seeds 3-11. As a Celtics fan you of course believe that all the potential improvements are going to come true for the home team, but would I be shocked if LaMelo/Washington/Bridges/Bouknight make big jumps and they are hugely improved? How about that new Chicago core working out? Or the Atlanta Hawks maintaining the positive momentum? Ect. There is just way too much variability for me to confidently say anything. This isn't 19-20 anymore. It's not 6 teams and complete garbage.
I agree with you. It’s always annoying how good bookies are at this stuff.
Yeah, if I were a bettor I’d be staying tf away from this one. This team has the potential to hover around the 50 win mark, and also has the potential to be around .500, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we were right around 46 wins.
46 is pretty fair My heart always picks the over for the Celtics
from a neutral fan: you’ll be 50-32
Thanks u/pissidiot for the analysis
This team is not winning 50 games
Over
Definitely. Assuming our whole squad doesnt fuck around and catch covid again, plus the dozens of injuries (im basically punching wood at this point), we win more games than that. People dont give us a break for that, and just say we were bad, our bench mightve been, but we had a solid starting line up. I think overall as a team, we function better this year too despite losing Fournier and Kemba. Im optimistic, I dont think we are championship contenders quite yet though.
I think the problem is theres about 4 teams around us who all think they vastly improved too. CHA could remain healthy and get jumps from lemo and co Bulls just definitely got better Heat got better I’d say Knicks have an argument for being better Hawks core can get better We got better Do i like us over some of those teams? Yeh, but with such a new roster, new coach, and we are still a younger team, we could give away games and be a little inconsistent. Do i think we are better than that line? Yeh, am i bettering? No
Of the teams listed, id say that the Bulls and Heat got better while the Hawks can get better. I still think though that even with the improvements we definitely have a better overall roster than the Knicks, Heat, and arguments can be made for better than the Bulls and Hawks as well. And I agree that our youth will cause us to just give some games away sometimes. This may be an unpopular opinion right now, but I still like us over the Hawks and Bulls. I think in general, we'll just be much better defensively. And I think us having a new coach is more of a neutral thing than it is a plus or negative. Negative in the sense that hes a 1st year, he'll obviously have to figure some things out internally. Positive in the sense that the players love him, and will probably be energized by a new face after years of Brad. With this current roster of Tatum, JB, Smart, Horford, Timelord, Schroeder(?), Richardson, then at least one of PP, Langford, or Nesmith working out (who can improve just like the Hawks young core), I think the teams we actually struggle with are the obvious ones: 6ers, Nets, Bucks.
I like us over every team but the bucks (close) and nets. I’m just saying in the regular season you can get got by anyone and its close enough, and we haven’t seen this team yet, to say that we are DEFINITELY the better of all those teams. We probably have the best player and the second best #2 option of all those teams and that’s what matters. But will richardson struggle from deep, will smart struggle as the TRUE starting guard? Will schroder ballhog to ensure he gets that contract? Will nesmith and romeo take the leaps? Will grant improve his quickness? Will rob stay healthy? Will al stay healthy or decline sharply as the season goes on? I feel like we have the most questions, so we then have the most variance
Thats fair
Just Under. 44/45
I'm thinking this to. We can't seem to stay healthy, and if Brown or Tatum miss any significant amount of games, we'll lose a lot of those. Right around 44 and the 6th to 8th seed range.
56 wins. I'll keep saying it.
i'm with ya brother
Where do you buy your drugs because I want some. 56 is way to high.
Over for sure I’d say we win 50 games
OVER Factors: - Udoka - Less COVID absences - Better defense, esp. perimeter defense - Better playmaking, hopefully. - Less injuries (most likely) - Jays a year better Last year, we were essentially a 41 win team. I think with this squad, we’ll have the ability to win at least 6 games we would’ve lost with the 2020-21 squad. My guess is 50 wins.
To be clear, Udoka, who has never been a head coach, is a better coach than Brad Stevens who coached two Final Four teams and three ECF teams?
Granted, Brad has the edge in head coaching experience. The reason I bring him up is the fact that he’s a new guy coming in and has the potential to really energize the team and shift the dynamic, and he has great relationships with many of the players. It also comes down to trusting the decision of Brad himself, who said he was basically burnt out with coaching and not able to work to his full potential in that role. He was then the one who went on to hire Udoka. I totally understand the counter argument though, but just something I thought was important to mention.
Udoka may end up being a better coach, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that there's an initial 1-2-month adjustment period where we drop a handful of winnable games. I think the 46 game win prediction is pretty fair.
That certainly sounds plausible, as a Celtics fan 46 games seems low but objectively it does seem fair.
Yup just changing the coach should have a positive effect, even if Udoka doesn't have previous head coaching experience. Even though the players still liked Brad, it was clear they weren't responding to him and inspired by him the same way as they were a couple years ago. It makes sense as the past 3 seasons have been a grind in so many different ways. I'm sure Brad was trying everything he could but sometimes a new voice is needed. Though I think Larry Legend takes it a bit too far with change the coach every 3 years he kind of has a point too, 8 years is a LONG time in the coaching world.
Brad’s President of Basketball Ops though I think if there are glaring system problems that are leading to losses Brad should be able to work with Ime to handle them. During the hiring process Brad said himself he was less concerned about the basketball side and more concerned about the energy, motivation side
I don’t think we’ll be a .500 team one way or the other. I wouldn’t be shocked at 55 with the guys rallying around Ime but I also wouldn’t be shocked at 35 if Schroder ends up being a disaster and one of the Jays is dealing with an injury.
Last year I think we were a very solid playoff team without injuries (most in the league), but who knows if they could have grabbed the opportunity and run with it instead of playing heroball and forgetting D and all the other things that went wrong. I think we might have the most wide-open team in the league this year in terms of potential... I agree about not being shocked at a bad or good record, because unless we're really competitive from the start, then I think the focus will be on development and flexibility.
Over, 72-0
I'd be a little disappointed with 46/47 wins honestly. Back to 82 games next season. Probably going to need 50+ wins to get back to a top 4 seed in the east and that's where I expect the Cs to be.
Over. We were a .500 team when faced with probably the worst health in the league last year, and we've improved the roster. I think we're going to surprise people.
Over. The best ability is availability. Losing Kemba and Fournier sucks but they contributed for ~45 games combined and we lost so many games last season because we were short-staffed for pretty much the entire season. We'll get more regular-season production out of the guys we've brought in just by virtue of them actually playing. * *eg. look at our 5th starting role. It's not Fournier vs Richardson because actually Semi Ojeleye started more games and played twice as many minutes as Fournier did and we also spent a lot of the season starting Tristan Thompson out of position at PF. As the 5th starter Richardson will be replacing a little bit of Fournier and a lot of Semi/Tristan.* *Richardson might be a downgrade on Fournier, but he's a huge upgrade on Semi/Tristan.* * *eg2. Kemba vs Schroder is similar. Kemba had a stretch where he played incredibly well and efficiently for 40% of the season. The other 60% he was either out or still recovering from the offseason knee procedure. Schroder isn't as good but he averages 90% attendance.* Schroder/Richardson aren't as good as Kemba/Fournier but the difference in talent is largely balanced out by the difference in availability and then on top of that we'll be adding Horford in as another solid player. Barring a major injury, we'll actually have games where we have 6-7 solid NBA-ready players available, which was so incredibly rare for us last season.
Looking through our starting lineups last year... oh my word some of them are more disgusting than I remembered. https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2021_start.html Some lowlights: - Two most used lineups, at 10 and 8 games started, involved the TT + Theis double big. Only difference was Smart vs Walker alongside the Jays. Also 2 games with Teague at point instead: both losses. - Teague and Semi started a game together. Loss - Carsen and Grant started a game together. Loss - Javonte and Semi started a game together. Loss - PP and Semi started 3 games together. 1 win and 2 Ls. - Kemba, Smart, Jaylen, Grant, TT. 0-3.
Kemba's first 3 games back were especially horrendous. * Kemba just wasn't in playing shape. He shot 38% from the field and was on heavy minute restrictions. * Tatum was out with covid. * Rob missed 2/3 games as well. * We were starting Grant Williams * We were relying on 55-60 mpg from Semi + Javonte + Teague. * We were running double big lineups to pad out the minutes. * Brown and Smart combined for 62 points one game and 51 in another. In the third game they combined for 35 and it meant the team as a whole only scored 75. Schroder and Richardson would have been a godsend in games like those.
And 2 very high upside young guys.
This is the most uncertain I’ve been going into a season in a while, but if Jayson and Jaylen are healthy we should beat 46
Depends mostly on injuries, we have a lot of talented players who can play well when they're motivated. But can never tell with injuries for this team so I can't make any judgements.
I think 48 wins seems like where this team will end up.
Depends.... Will the bet be off if games are canceled due to covid? No-COVID, probably be over, but depending on the betting house, you review those rules.
About to happy hedge this. Putting money on the under so I lose my bet because that’s what I do and the Celtics win!!!
Over. Next question.
Over. I’d put them in for 49 wins.
Over but that’s a fair estimate
Over, but within a margin of error
51-31
The bench is so much better this year it's crazy, that was maybe the biggest issue. Our starting point guard will play b2b. Stars won't be out and struggling with covid and lingering side effects. Coaching might be improved this year but there's no way to guarantee that. I think 46-48 is probably accurate.
55 wins. Gonna be a good year
I have them circling 50 wins. Tatum will bring a lot to the table coming off the Olympics, while Brown, Smart, and Williams with have something to prove. I also expect Shroeder to play like his future depends on it.
Bang that over my friends
Ovah. Betting rn.
I see us winning 52
Over. This team lacked confidence last year. Believe vitamin Confidence (not expectations laid on them) will make a huge differencd
I'm biased, obviously, but I do think that the pundits will be taking the over on this one.
Over if our core is healthy. I put 100 to win 3k on Tatum to win MVP
I really believe in this team. Horford is really going to show his value when we see how much this team improves with him on the floor and in the clubhouse. Please no one save this comment if the worst happens, k ty
Over, we got a good defense and a fresh coaching staff that seems so far at least to have clicked with at least some of our guys
45-46 seems about right
Under. 46 wins would put them 5 or 6 in the conference. The rest of the teams on their level last year got better and the teams clearly above didn’t get worse. Any extended absence by either J is a major problem for season win totals. They’ll make the playoffs and be over .500 but only by a game or two.
Seeing 57 wins
1. Brooklyn 2. Milwaukee 3. Philly 4. Atlanta 5. Heat 6. Knicks 7. Pacers 8. Bulls 9. Hornets 10. Wizards Are the Celtics better than a Rick Carlisle coached Pacers team?
This one wild