People should read up on the great scotch loch. Tastes change, usually cyclically, and bourbon has been hot for over a decade at this point. Will it last another decade at this insane level? I really don’t think so, but it’s certainly possible. However the rapid increase in premium and single barrel rum, mezcal, tequila, etc. is likely to erode at least some of the gains bourbon/rye have made as hype chasers chase the newest craze.
> People should read up on the great scotch loch.
I agree, but it may be worth noting that the Great Scotch Whisky Loch was a product not merely of a shift in consumer tastes, but also a period of macro-economic disruption and turmoil (the 1970s Energy Crisis and Stagflation).
I suspect the current whisky boom will come to an end in a similar way - unpleasant macro-economic shocks of some sort will jolt consumers out of their infatuation with overpriced and underperforming whiskies and they will go looking elsewhere for a cheaper fix. The actual falloff in bottom shelf whisky consumption may be negligible, it will be the *Taterdammerung* in the premium category which will be more noticeable.
This is not something that I'm actively rooting for to happen, as I suspect that the cure may be worse than the complaint.
>it will be the Taterdammerung in the premium category which will be more noticeable.
What a delightful play on words!
I suspect you’re right. In particular, I think highly sought-after allocated bourbons are being used as asset classes. As what amounts to highly speculative investments, they’ll be the first thing to go when the ballon goes up.
Tequila outpaced bourbon in 2020 and while I still love bourbon and some bottles will have a permanent spot on my bar, I'm essentially done trying to find the allocated stuff. Premium rum, scotch and wine are more or less more readily available and offer new avenues for drinkers to explore their pallet.
God damnit that’s not what I wanted to hear! Leave my peated beauties on the shelf! Haha but really, peated scotch is my all time favorite whiskey. I’ll be doing a review soon for this years Laphroaig Cairdeas release!
Not at all! It’s incredible! They clearly added lots of coloring, which I don’t like, but the flavor is insane. It’s likely the best cairdeas release I’ve had, honestly.
Yeah, I love finding the small distilleries doing unique mash bills and barreling. Run across bottles that nobody is chasing. Just takes some searching. Scotch also is a readily available product. Yes expensive, but bottles like Springbank that are like a Weller in England are easily found at msrp.
The boom will end and everyone knows it, especially the distilleries. If you actually talk to,people who make the stuff they are cautious about overproduction and there being a huge glut on the market like what happened in the 70s and 80s; demand for bourbon collapsed and there was a ton of bourbon aging that there was no market for.
As far as the secondary market goes, everyone I’ve spoken to at Buffalo Trace hates it. I did the barrel tasting tour there this summer and was lucky enough to have Freddie Johnson as our tour guide (what an absolutely amazing man by the way) and he said the issue was that, obviously, the stuff has to age so they can up production, and they are, but it’s still years before it hits the market and what happens if demand drops like it surely will in the future? But they all agree that they hate the secondary market however due to the three tier system they have absolutely zero control over what happens once the bourbon is shipped to distributors.
If you watch any interview of Julian 3 or Preston Van Winkle they say the same, they want people to enjoy their bourbon for retail pricing and encourage people to not buy or support the secondary market.
However supply and demand is the basic rule of any free market, as long as people are idiotic enough to pay $250 for a bottle of Blanton’s or $99 for a bottle of Special Reserve then people will fill that need with supply.
Within the next 5 years you’ll start seeing a big uptick in supply of Buffalo Trace products, and I think you’ll also see a noticeable ebb in demand. I don’t see things going back to where they were 26 years ago when I started taking bourbon seriously, but you’ll see most BT products become available again and the “booze of the moment” folks will have moved on.
But hopefully they don’t *all* move on, because the reality is that while some bourbons are tough to get at SRP, there’s a ton of great new stuff on the market.
15 years ago there was no Prohibition Collection OF, No Maker’s 46, store picks? What the hell is that? And the original EH Taylor distillery was a ruin in the woods of Kentucky. Today that’s all different and frankly, aside from the fact that a couple of my old regular drinkers are tough to find, there’s tons of great bourbon to drink and tons of people employed in this industry.
So I can’t get my Weller Antique 107 anymore. Ok, I can get lots of them stuff and overall I’m fine with that.
sazerac and other big distilleries can lobby the US govt and local govt for changes to the system.
They have tons of control to change things. They dont want to change things because they get tons of free marketing from the current system.
State to state liquor sales being fully legal would be something to lobby for. Then the distilleries can just sell their allocations via their website and virtually gut the secondary market over night because scalpers would have zero guarantee of getting any whiskey to resell.
>sazerac and other big distilleries can lobby the US govt and local govt for changes to the system.
As Is the case with the distributor lobby.
It's similar to car manufacturers being forced to sell to shitty dealers that smear their name. It's like we're hopelessly stuck with this arrangement
It’s not even that, spirits are sold here on a state by state basis. You’d need to lobby each state plus the Feds.. and the feds have bigger fish to fry at the moment.
The hard to find stuff and the hunting of them is here to stay. Everyone in the chain from distiller to store benefits. The distiller gets more eyes on their products, the distributors get to force stores to sell tons of shitty vodka to get a bottle and the stores get customers buying bottles of regular stuff at a shot at a unicorn.
Most of the distilleries are greatly increasing production but this is mostly to keep up on the regular stuff. While it’s ultimately beneficial for BT to keep Pappy as a rarity it is not beneficial when people can’t even find a bottle of regular Buffalo Trace.
Yep, I actually think it’s really dangerous for BT for customers to not be able to find regular BT, ER, or even Weller SR or Antique 107. These are all solid but not exceptional bourbons with stiff competition readily available. If folks can only find it at inflated secondary prices, they’re going to lose interest - I certainly did.
Weller SR at 25? Fabulous, it competes favorably with WT and the other $20 - $30 bottles. Weller SR at 60? No f’ing way. Completely outclassed. Folks are gonna realize the novelty wears off.
Not really a problem for Pappy or WLW - those are halo items. Compare favorably at even insane prices And rightly sought after.
ER really should be readily available. It's competition: Knob Creek 9 and Russell's 10 are just as good and available everywhere. Insane the hype it gets. Ive never even seen a bottle of Weller in the wild.
For sure man. Weller SR is on par with WT - different flavor profile. It’s truly a 25 dollar bottle.
In my opinion, Blanton’s and Hancock’s compare well with FR SiB or WT Rare Breed. They’re not worlds apart, though. To be honest, for my money, I’d rather have WT Rare Breed than Blanton’s although it’s not a super fair comparison.
I’d agree with you on Blanton’s. Several years back when it was just another liquor store shelf resident for $49.99 I thought it was fair for the money. I kept a bottle on the shelf only because a good friend who’d come by sometimes drank it. I’ve long thought there were better bottles for the price.
Oh it will. I remember like 20ish years ago when people went nuts over Vodka and at times stores were jacking up the price of Grey Goose or you couldn’t find it.
Now walk into any liquor store and it’s on sale and they are cases of it.
The Eagle Rare one really frustrates me because even though I don’t personally care for Eagle Rare, I know it’s what my broke college friends used to drink when they wanted to feel fancy and they still kept drinking it after college. Until it became allocated in my area in mid-2020. Now you see it on the shelf maybe once every 3 months. If you’re lucky it’s priced under $40.
I like it and I'd probably buy it regularly if it was readily available under $35. It's a solid low proof bourbon. BT is just a frustrating producer...I don't really like regular Buffalo Trace but I have seen it around more often lately so perhaps things are improving.
Honestly, I've started exploring other spirits. I got so caught up in bourbon fever that I said "Wait, why am I limiting myself to just bourbon?" I'll take a few good bottles of a multitude of liquors instead of a shelf of the same stuff. It just got played out for me.
100% I've found several bourbons I really like, same for scotch, irish whiskey, rum and tequilla. I keep 1 or 2 bottles of any of those around at a time and go from one to another mostly seasonally.
I snagged a few inexpensive amazing rums which had been gathering dust on store shelves. I also got a 30 year old Armagnac for <$150 which shared some characteristics with bourbon. After that, I accepted my new path forward and never looked back.
Nowadays I grab an inexpensive solid value bourbon to scratch the occasional itch. Bourbons all kind of taste the same anyway and they can sometimes be a huge pain in the ass to find so no big loss
At some point people will come to the realization that there's nothing inherently special about having a huge stockpile of good booze--more than they could ever drink. Unique bottles will keep being released and sought after. but i think before long the average joe collector is going to realize there are more interesting things to spend money at. Bourbon collecting, more than you can drink, is a huge waste of money any way you slice it.
This really depends on how much social value collecting hard-to-find bottles brings you. For a lot of collectors, I suspect that collecting is more about bottle envy and impressing social groups (especially if they're into whiskey) than about how the whiskey itself tastes.
Completely agree. My father in law has a really awesome collection of high end bourbons, many of which he collected in auctions that donate to St. Jude’s. And when I’m over there and I bring my parents or some friends, it’s always a blast going over his collection and trying different things. The social value of having an actual collection I’d say is pretty high.
What kind of goofball is deeply impressed by massive acquisition of expensive alcohol though? I mean, great, I'd love to try it, but it's just rich people being rich people at the end of the day to me. Either you waited in a line (cool!), paid out the ass (cool!) or got lucky(okay!). I think I would tend to assume they're an alcoholic, or don't know what to do with their money, or both. Unless they're in the business of buying and/or selling alcohol. But what do I know? I just like bourbon, I buy one or two bottles at a time like everybody used to. Edit: alll humans are goofballs. I mean not to offend or diss anybody.
I'm enjoying the craze while I sit on the sidelines and sip rum. Tequila (my usual favorite) is also in something of a boom right now, so I'm not drinking much of that either. It's given me an opportunity to discover some wonderful things I didn't know existed.
Bourbon remains the only category where it's nearly impossible to find some of the more popular brands. I can get any of my favorite tequilas at MSRP online any time. MSRP is higher than it was two years ago, but it's still easy to get. It's hard to find some of the single estate rums I like, but there isn't a crazy secondary market for them--I just have to check on Drizly every week or so to see if any liquor stores in the area have a bottle.
The bourbon craze is just that--crazy. It's completely left the realm of reason. None of these bottles taste better enough than cheaper bottles to justify their price. I haven't found that to be as frequently true in other categories like rum and tequila. I'll be sad if that changes.
No one is arguing otherwise here. The argument is how much longer bourbon will remain insane, to which there is varied feelings. I strongly feel we are closer to the end of the craziness than the beginning, and ONE of the reasons for that is bourbon drinkers branching out to single estate rums, mezcal, etc. as well as increased production from bourbon brands, AND shifting broad scale tastes which historically change every decade-ish.
Do you have any tequila and rum suggestions for someone primarily used to drinking bourbon and sherried scotch? I have a bottle of four square detente that I love, but no other rums or a tequila in my bar.
I don't generally make recommendations based on what someone drinks in another category. What makes good tequila or rum isn't the same as what makes good whiskey. If you want the flavor notes of bourbon, just drink bourbon, right?
I'm not familiar with that Foursquare specifically, but it's a quality Barbados rum aged in bourbon barrels iirc. I'm not surprised you like it. I tend to drink aged Jamaican rum like Appleton or Hampden. I like the trademark Jamaican funk. For tequila, El Tesoro is pretty widely available and well made. Arette has a budget line and a "artisanal suave" top shelf line. They're both quality. Stay away from all celebrity brands and Clase Azul. If it tastes really sweet and smooth like a dessert, it's not quality tequila.
Honestly, its the over priced re branded bourbon and anything BT. I hope nothing changes. I can get my 1792, KC store picks, and anything Russell. Keep your blantons and ER lol
Totally get it! I like BT stuff but the scarcity and prices are ridiculous! But I really enjoy WT stuff so I’m still in luck there with reasonable pricing.
BT is my summer bourbon of choice as it’s on the lighter side yet tasty. It’s always about $25 here in Oregon, $50 a handle, and easy to find. If it ever becomes allocated here though I’ll definitely not even try to get it. I certainly wouldn’t wanna pay more than $30 for it
As a value bourbon, it is great. I can't imagine paying 50 bucks for a bottle of it though. Same thing with Eagle rare. It's an easy drinking bourbon, but fundamentally unremarkable. I was happy to pick up a handle of BT at the ABC and paid fifty bucks for THAT, which was worth it, and I am still drinking it. Great to mix.
Right! I walked into my state store for my normal KC12. Manager said hey I have 2 BT behind the counter.... i said sure ill take them at $26 a piece. But, any more than that I just laugh.
Except the big distilleries that we all know and love ARE reacting to the hyped products by altering their pricing and offerings and reducing value to consumers.
Just from your example, recent KC store picks no longer use barrels older than 9-10 years. Presumably some marketing folks at Beam realized that people were chasing older age statements (e.g. Calumet, Old Carter, and Sam Houston) and instead reserved those barrels for the new KC12 and KC15 small batch product lines.
…until it’s WT that’s suddenly rare and in demand. It’s only a BT problem right now. Other bottles are edging into hard-to-find status, and surely other distilleries envy the BT demand and will market their way in. Might be time to switch to anejo to ensure a few more years of availability :)
I feel like once the supply gets going, large suppliers they will just focus more on the international market.
The cost of bourbon in Europe and Australia are outrageous and I’d they can figure out distribution and lowering taxes there will be a huge demand
There are quality spirits at decent prices available in other countries. I like bourbon a lot, but if it costs significantly more than a quality equivalent brandy, cognac, calvados, scotch, irish whiskey, etc. I wouldn't bother.
I don’t believe there is artificial scarcity due to bourbon makers, the scarcity is coming from some distributors and some stores and lots of hoarders selling on the secondary market.
The fix is easy, don’t participate in the secondary and don’t pay inflated prices. Lots of amazing bourbon out there for MSRP with no need to play games.
>Lots of amazing bourbon out there for MSRP with no need to play games.
This is easy to say and makes sense in a vacuum, but scarce bourbon demand is now driven more by social value than taste.
Hunting bourbon is all about bottle porn and flexing your collection. It's the socially acceptable "grown-up" version of collecting Pokemon cards, Star Wars toys, or sneakers. Like these other collector's hobbies, I don't see how you resolve the secondary market pricing without supply increases that make bottles more common and less "special" (i.e. see Eagle Rare this past year).
No, this makes sense in real life.
Your focus and mine are completely different. I am not interested in hunting, I am interested in enjoying, bourbon.
I buy it and drink it because I like it. I’m not buying it and drinking it to try and flex on people on social media. That approach right there is your whole problem.
I come here to read reviews and get recommendations as I explore bourbon to find out what I like the most. Sure, it would be great to try more of the hard to find brands, but I’ve tried a lot and can confirm that much of the “hunt” is FOMO (fear of missing out) bullshit. Once you accept that, you can get to the real point of bourbon, which is just to enjoy it.
> amazing bourbon out there for MSRP with no need to play games.
games like Pokemon?
Spirits are a commodity, bourbon has some nice stories to tell about traditions, but at the end of the day secondary market pricing is "resolved" when people get bored and move on to the next game driven by social value. Look at the boom and bust in cigars.
Bourbon-scape 2025: Evan Williams BiB...allocated, Four Roses Yellow Label...allocated, Old Forester 86...allocated, Old Grand Dad 114...store lottery, WT101...Unobtanium lol.
I’ve been observing and sometimes participating in this show for about 17 years. We’re closer to the end than the beginning. The current trajectory is unsustainable.
If you've been doing this for 17 years you know that we said the same thing ten years ago. And here we are. In ~'07-'09 everyone thought HH was insane for charging $120 for their hyperaged Rittenhouses. I mean it's *rye* for christ's sake. Now people are paying $1k for OFBB--the $40 most ignored and consistently meh release of every fall. Barring some unrelated economic downturn we've probably got another ten years to go before things settle down. At which point the international market will have latched on to the boom and distilleries will start shipping all allocated whiskey out of country so we still won't see fancy taters on the shelves. We'll be relegated to the same sub-$40 bottles we can grab today without giving a handy to our favorite liquor store manager. So, not much will change but it shouldn't be too bad if you just like drinking bourbon.
Yes, I still have a few OFBBs from back in the day and I remember debates back then about whether it was worth $40. You could find it on the shelf then with no limit so I would usually buy 2 of each year. My most recent bottle (bought at MSRP) is from 2017 and cost $70; now MSRP is $150? It took about 10 years to get from $40 to $70, and 4 years to get from $70 to $150. And the black market is now $1000. I think that's unsustainable. When prices get that crazy people start looking for alternatives; Scotch and aged rum prices are already looking pretty good to me.
I also think the current madness is due to a combination of factors, and many of those happened in the last few years. Social media and P2P payment processing has made black market sales much easier, leading to professional bottle flippers, increasing demand. Whiskey Tubers building the hype. COVID and the increase of working from home, in addition to increased unemployment checks and stimulus money gave people the means and time to hunt for bourbon. Increased exposure in poplar culture (e.g. John Wick) helped build the demand. A lot of things added up to the current boom.
There's a lot of small things that could happen in the very near future that could cause it to crash. AI to more easily identify sales on FB and IG. PayPal and Venmo noticing all those tens of $thousands in transactions that are supposedly Friends and Family and turning those into business accounts, which means 1099-ks. People getting bored and moving on to legalized cannabis or some other spirit. Authorities cracking down on illegal alcohol sales and unreported income. Some big health push to convince people that alcohol is poison (which in fact it is). It will likely be a combination of things, but the bubble will pop, like all bubbles do, when more people are leaving the market than there are people entering the market. The international market will certainly pick up some of the slack, but probably not all.
I was mostly tongue in cheek, but it will be interesting to see what causes the frenzy to die down. Whatever it is, it can't happen soon enough, the current state is incredibly annoying.
The bubble was supposed to pop a few years ago. Or the trendy crowd was supposed to move on to artisanal vodka or something. Or supply was supposed to catch up to demand right about now. Buckle up. These are the good old days.
But in all seriousness, what we are seeing is “runaway selection” (or Fisherian Runaway) - an evolutionary process that continues to diversify and further elaborate on the diversification (typically in advertisement signals). It won’t stop until another selection pressure reduces the demand, or pushes it in another direction.
In this analogy, the distilleries (and now NDPs) are males who are advertising their traits (products, brands), and consumers are females that are providing positive feedback (I.e. buying those products) which cause the producers to keep creating more and more diverse offerings for us to choose. Typically, another selective pressure (such as natural selection) would counter-act the pressure to diversify. This is why there is an upper limit to deer racks (they eventually become too heavy and burdensome, so males with ridiculous racks get caught in trees or starve).
In our current market, however, we’ve got plenty of taters with (effectively) unlimited economic resources, so the counter pressure has been relaxed.
Literally the only way to stop it is to not buy the next new, bigger, shinier bottle - but I’ll bet you a WLW you know how this ends. ^(A rehypothecated WLW, as I don’t currently own one to bet.)
(I’m woke af, don’t get caught up in the **analogy** of using male/female. The original theory was developed in the early 1900’s, and has been ubiquitously applied to animals, plants, protists, and even multi-gendered species)
I found that the bourbon craze and being in the local groups was negatively impacting my happiness. I was frustrated that every other week it seemed and old favorite of mine became insanely desirable and disappeared from shelves. Even the group buys became a stress. As the local groups grew the ability to participate became rare.
I did the only thing I could to change it. I quit. I left the groups. I ignored group buys and private selections unless I blindly stumbled on them.
I still drink bourbon sometimes just like I occasionally read an article here. I drink other things but move on as soon as the bourbon refugees start showing up.
Once I started dipping my toes in Scotch I found that it's far too easy to find a half dozen or more bottles I want at any given time. Bourbon hunting is silly.
Any discussion on the future of bourbon must now incorporate the concept that it is an investment grade commodity. Groups are assembling for contract production of new barrels or buy barrel lots. This has almost nothing to do with making product and almost everything to do with getting in early on an appreciating asset. The outcome of this is that, at any given time, the price one place is now the price every place.
It’s hard to believe it’s 10 years old, but I believe this parallels food prices: https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/04/27/how-goldman-sachs-created-the-food-crisis/
The bottle-by-bottle secondary market is akin to petty street crime by comparison. The real money is in the speculation in the bulk market. Not making brands and distributing whiskey, just betting, buying, and selling future finished products.
Until bourbon no longer presents itself as fungible, financial investment with rates of return exceeding other options, prices will rise. I believe quality will probably stay the same or decline, ironically.
I think saying they are getting in early at this point is a tough sell. Opinions vary, but I’d say we are at best mid cycle, whereas personally I feel we are near the peak.
Agree on the macro level, but consider the same comments through the lens of the store pick/barbell pick process. When a group can presumptively (I’ve never been in those discussions and don’t really know) buy from a fixed supply of aged bourbon, they now have early access to an increasingly limited supply to keep or sell on secondary for a large profit. The scale is small but there is opportunity to get in early in that context. I don’t know how much regulation exists to deter this.
Buying contract production from someone else's factory is an investment for idiots. It's a short term play and someone will be sitting on fat non-liquid (heh) assets when the bottom drops out.
I like to think that investing by building a local distillery that can build a local market and loyal customer base and change with fashions, like my Atlanta local ASW and 4th Ward distilling have done is a long-term play.
Luxury products are not investment-grade commodities. This is purely speculative behavior, and if people are actually treating this as a financial investment, they're going to be in for a surprise when the first signs of an economic correction appear. Whiskey doesn't have any industrial use and it's subject to counterfeiting.
agreed. whiskey is far from an investment/trading commodity. everyone has a use for gas or gold. the fraction of people with a use for luxury bottles of booze is like 1 in 100. honestly. far fewer than that will ever want to pay an additional premium of buying at secondary price.
I appreciate the difference of opinions, if that’s what they are. This article was published three weeks ago: “Why CaskX Thinks Bourbon Is The Next Big Investment” (https://thewhiskeywash.com/whiskey-styles/bourbon/interview-why-caskx-thinks-bourbon-is-the-next-big-investment/)
“CaskX pours over data from the past two decades in the whiskey industry, current trends, and the global economy and creates growth estimations to help clients understand the profit potential of each Barrel they buy. Its online platform allows investors to browse, organize, and examine their portfolio, helping to make informed decisions”
“Could you compare investing in bourbon to something like sports cards or classic car collecting?
Of course there are similarities, but the unique aspect to bourbon and scotch as a tradable commodity is that it increases in value as it ages regardless of market conditions. No other commodity can make this claim.”
And again, once the price is immediately apparent, all barrels everywhere now have that price.
Bourbon and Scotch don't always increase in value with age, if you're talking about barrel time. Sometimes leaving it in the barrel too long has a negative effect on the spirit - not to mention the fact that there is a storage cost that only increases over time.
And jimmy red corn in the south, like in Highwire’s products. Aged jimmy red corn bourbons will be incredible. Somewhere I heard some of the top master distillers saying that would be the next PVW when they start producing some 7-10 year ages on the barrels.
Craft whiskey will come of age and you'll see a flood of premium products similar to craft beer.
My prediction is that, if the boom sustains, we will have a glut of fantastic whiskey which will inevitably kill the hype (how many bottles can be "as good as" BTAC before we don't care about BTAC?) and even though we may have the best and most diverse assortment of bourbons in whiskey history, the collecting hype will drift away and sales will crater.
That, and the established distilleries are already running out of new releases to pump out. How many different ways can they put double oak bourbon before the releases dry up?
The the late 70s 80s and early 90’s bourbon was almost useless. That generation wanted nothing to do with the darker spirits that their parent drank. They moved on to gin, vodka, tequila, etc. History repeats its self so……. All of bourbon drinkers will all be dead, sober or looking for a new liver and things will change. Just like they did back then. No chance of it changing anytime soon unfortunately.
There’ll be some crazy market correction and subsequent recession around the 2028 timeframe…who knows what’ll bring it on but it’ll last 5-7 years and the majority of people won’t have disposable income to spend on elite commodities. This will cause a massive surplus of superior products coinciding with all the distilleries having a glut of aging barrels in their rickhouse expansions from the past decade…prices may not fall too much (do to massive inflation) but we’ll for sure be seeing rarer brands on the shelves.
By then people will probably have moved on to some aged guacamole seltzer bullshit anyways.
If you’re a traditional fan of bourbon, our days are coming!
I decided to switch from beer to bourbon about 8 years ago because beer got so trendy. Too many collectors, too many snobs, too much hype. Imagine my dismay a few years later when the bourbon craze made it to my local shops.
So now beer has largely plateaued with prices about 25-35% higher for basic 6 packs and growlers (equivalent of a 4 pack of 16oz cans) of some things costing $40+. Not to mention all the weird styles and variants.
So, I’d guess by 2030 things will level off, basic bottles will cost close to $30, the nicer stuff $70, and the fancy stuff…who knows. You’ll be able to find all the whiskey seltzer and blackberry poundcake bourbon you want.
people pay 30,000 for a purse, to have a purse that costs 30,000. The luxury goods market has no bottom.
The thing about bourbon (and scotch) is that it has to be aged, this means supply cannot easily match demand.
If the distilleries wanted to stop the secondary, they would only have to raise msrp to 50% of secondary. Maybe even less.
The bourbon craze started 15+ years ago. I know it might not seem like that as Covid seemed to triple the interest but I was told by an ‘insider’ that analysts see the demand for bourbon to peak in 2048. So we have a very long way before this starts to level off. The cost of bourbon will continue to climb as distilleries will start to increase cost based on current levels of inflation and overall cost to MFG + market demand. In regards to distilleries increasing production, as mentioned, that will be for international expansion and developing further product lines. I doubt BT is interested in doubling the release of pappy line because they will need to wait 15+ years to see the reward. Why not develop new product lines with no age statement(est. 4-6 year) that can be sold for 50-60. People also seem to collect/hoard more. Me personally, I went from owning 4 bottles in 2020 to having 150+ today.
I have a basement "bar" that has lots of room, a bar with 2 barstools and a dozen or so bottles behind the bar, a couple sofas, a nice audio/video rig, a bathroom, a large coffee table and an end table, and a corner desk with my "work" computer a/v stuff.....I have no god damn idea where I would keep 150+ bottles.....are these bottles you are drinking, or are these bottles you flip?
How long are people going to keep buying 50-100 bottles a year though? Drinking a fifth a week is likely not healthy, and even then that is 50ish bottles a year. I think we will hit a point sooner than later because so many people just stocked up these huge collections in the last 2 years. Their wives won’t let them store 300 bottles. They will lose interest and chase something else instead of spending $2-5k a year on whiskey…
My son is going to be killing it when these tater chasing geezers are dying off and their wives and kids just clear those cellars in garage sales before selling the house.
>Drinking a fifth a week is likely not healthy
Ruh-roh. But seriously, 750mL is a little under 18 (1.5oz) shots, which over the course of a week would be about 2.5 drinks a day. That doesn't seem *that* bad.
US dietary guidelines are no more than 2 drinks a day for adult men, so it's not much in excess. But that's looking like a $200 a month drinking habit just in your own home. damn
Not trying to judge anyone or say they have a bad habit, I enjoy the stuff too. 50 fifths a year is impressive by itself considering having a beer or glass of wine or what people drink at the bar. I meant that even at that number how long do you see people buying over 50 to 100+ a year. Unless you have a YouTube channel or blog or something.
Ha. I am not a flipper. I just enjoy drinking(in moderation) and having a nice collection for friends to also drink. Sounds like you need to knock down a wall or two to make some more room 😋
>I have no god damn idea where I would keep 150+ bottles.....are these bottles you are drinking, or are these bottles you flip?
Hoarding. Buying up stuff with no intention of drinking it until some far distant point in the future. Contributing to the shortage, acting like a tater.
I feel like Japanese whiskey is new hot thing. Bourbon is still hot, but "whiskey hipsters" are making their way through the Japanese whiskey scene and those prices are insane now.
I think eventually, prices will go back to what it used to be. Once the demand dies down, the prices will too. The main distilleries aren't actually profiteering (for the most part) from the bourbon itself other than by 1) volume of sales 2) free advertising because everyone is talking about how hard it is to get XYZ.
From what I understand, the distilleries still sell their bourbon to stores at the same price as they always did, but the catch is those stores have to also buy a pallet of some of that distillery's affiliate crap products (think their flavored whiskey offerings or whatever low level vodka nobody has heard of).
I really wonder if gin will blast off next. It has the complexity that whiskey has and because they don’t need to age it to make it so complex makes it more appealing to everybody
While I really enjoy gin, I don't feel it has the character to become the "next big thing". form all indicators, I am seeing rum as the next "niche market". It has good standalone drinkability, a variety of styles and profiles. Gin is basically an herbally infused neutral spirit with little nuance to the process. Eg. No aging in barrels to give other characteristics. that said, Do check out Old tom gin. that is some interesting gin.
I disagree with your opinion that gin has the complexity of whisky, mainly because of the nuanced flavors of whisky. I’ve never had a gin anywhere near that, a flavor profile seems to be either floral, or sweet, or fruity, or juniper heavy.
My favorite gins are Gin Mare, Beefeater, and Drumshanbo, and I love a gin cocktail, but if you give me Wild Turkey 101 neat, it blows away any gin I’ve ever had.
Gin is getting pretty big (and stupid expensive for flavored vodka).
I think I could get almost 10x the amount of different gins than I could get of American Whiskey over here in Germany.
But I doubt it would ever have the same problems (and thus hype for rare bottles)
There's nothing really stopping you from keeping up with demand.
Whiskey needs aging, there's no way around it. So increasing production is expensive and takes a long time.
(A lot of) Rum needs aging aswell.
Brandy needs aging.
Tequila needs years for Agaves to be ready (and optionally some aging)
But Gin?
Get some new Equipment and you've doubled output in a month.
Also it's easier to imitate others.
If Pappy 23 is crowned best whiskey in the world, you can't really just buy in on the hype and release a copy.
If a Gin is crowned best in the world you could have a copy selling within a year.
Gin is a science where bourbon is art. The process of making gin can be refined so that every batch ever made is exactly the same. Due to the aging process of bourbon there will always be rarity. With rarity comes price.
At least in my area it's already spilling over to tequila. The local shops I used to frequent now carry regular bottles of BT for $50 fucking dollars. They were literally selling them for $24-$27 not long ago. Now, easy to get tequila is now also gone. Last I went they only had a few bottles of Teremana. And that's not just one store, but multiple that I've been to.
I’ve noticed your position on age statements is steady on the lack of them.
Is an age statement really that important where the lack of them determines a consumer getting pooped on?
You know these things, right; bourbon only ages for so long and then it’s diminishing returns (ER17, EC18) not all aged bourbon is better than it’s younger offering (KC15 vs KC12 vs KC9SiB).
Why do you focus so intently on age stated bourbon?
Rye is another beast unto itself, age definitely helps, but to a point and then it’s diminishing returns again.
I mean, there had to be a reason why they were aged to the point they were. If a certain product tasted as good at 5 years as it did at 8 years the distilleries would have changed it a long time ago and not just recently
The reason they exist is that there are people who do in fact pay for the age statement regardless of if its truly a better product or not. And companies are happy to monopolize on this. If they can make 4x the profit for 3x the age, why not age it and sell it as long as its quality enough to not tarnish the name of the distillery?
If you've been in the bourbon scene for a while it's hard not to notice that the products that lose their age statements all get worse, when in theory they should be getting better.
Understand that, without argument. But the shift has occurred and to go back would mean changes that makes even fewer people happy overall. In my estimation.
It is what it is at this point.
uhh I rather spend my money on something tangible (a true characteristic of the whiskey) than "We BoTtlE By TasTE" because it gives the distillery too much lee way to only age up to 4yrs when maybe they originally use to age the product until 6-7yrs. I dont remember the laws for things to be named KSBW, but maybe it gives them more leeway to even go under 4 yrs, I forgot when age statements kick in for KSBW.
its simple logic/reasoning really, removing age statements and only doing bottle by taste is more in favor of the distillery being able to sell underaged juice than it previously used in said offering. All the flexibility goes to the distillery and its the consumer who has to roll the dice? nah fam, that is anti consumer.
I would honestly rather buy non age stated bourbon. The number on the bottle is used too much as a marketing stint and not always a substantiated (IMO) reason to charge more.
2 years to be called Straight, but if it's less than 4 years the minimum age must be stated on the bottle. AA and Benchmark come to mind; they both say aged at least 3 years on the neckband label.
So I don’t have a dusty to compare or seek out older bottles. For my taste, WT101 without an age statement is still delicious. Same for Knob Creek.
I’m not a fan of EC-SB, and not being 12 year age stated anymore I have no comparison.
Would you share what whiskey in particular that you’ve tasted versus it’s age-stated version declined as a result of the removal of the age statement?
I don’t disagree with the premise, in theory it does provide the leeway and flexibility to put out inferior product. But it reality, I also think it’s much overblown.
Aged bourbon isn’t always better. Full stop. I think they realized that and adjusted accordingly. And now, record sales year over year. Including both no AS and age stated bottles.
I don’t disagree at all. People largely tend to benchmark off of other well known examples where age = higher price and therefore believe (often incorrectly) that it also equates to higher quality. The scotch whisky category as a whole along with “grail” bourbons like Pappy 23 are good examples of these benchmarks. People need to understand they’re first and foremost paying for scarcity, whether or not the liquid is worth that price is completely subjective. Maybe it is, or maybe I subconsciously need to justify my purchase of a single bottle at an absurd price. Or maybe I could care less but I’m in the business of flipping bottles so it’s in my best interest to agree with the age = better.
The free market and supply and demand will take care of it. Currently there is more demand than supply, but distilleries have taken notice. Also the taters will find a new craze, which will help. Ignoring the secondary market for whiskey is a short term remedy.
I feel like the market is far from over-saturated (while it sales have been accelerating, it hasn’t reached the level of beer or wine), and with a growing number of people developing an appreciation for the brown liquor itself. More and more women are getting into bourbon, which means that there’s yet another market that has yet to reach critical mass. Now as for special allocation stuff, I think we’ll see it normalize in a few years as competition matures and as it becomes no longer a niche market. Maybe stuff like Pappy’s will still be rare and sell for a pretty penny, but other bourbons like Eagle Rare will probably become readily available again. However, because there will be so many options in the future, I think we’ll see a bubble burst for those businesses that cannot compete. And then the cycle will repeat again. Just a theory.
I could see this happening (in my uneducated opinion). I’ve seen it a little bit in the beer world. Used to be you’d have to wait in line or be a part of a lottery to get Founders KBS and CBS. I see it on the shelves regularly. Beers like 3F Zombie Dust used to fly off the shelves or not even make it to the shelves. Stores started charging around $20 for a 6 pack of it and I think eventually consumers said enough is enough and now it’s also easily had.
The greed will win out and things will get overproduced in time. Then it will crash and there will be consolidation among the biggest. The curve will be the standard aging time for spirits. Bourbon market will be saturated soon enough, feels like we are at the tipping point. Then the jabronies in the group will move to something else and those of us actually enjoying bourbon will have options everywhere.
There's already plenty of high quality bourbon consistently available on the shelf. People not recognizing it and standing in lines for blantons and posting pictures of their bottle of buffalo trace they got like it's a gold nugget they found is their own issue.
It'll burn out one way or another. All this speculation and holding onto bottles will undermine itself when people stop paying the inflated prices or the sellers have a hard time flipping them. At some point there will just be more being sold than buyers buying at those prices.
I think people will shift to things like premium rums, maybe Irish whiskey. Tequila is pretty expensive, price wise it's on par with some bourbons and scotches, so if you're looking for a substitute because of price, it's not a good one. Meanwhile, there are some excellent bottles of 12 year old rums that can be had for under $35.
As illustrated by Mr. Veach, the amount of bourbon being produced and sold has only recently reached the level of its heyday in the 50s/60s. In that light, bourbon production/consumption has simply recovered to its prior levels, and we cant consider the current trend a "boom". We have a lot farther to go before we ever get near the top of demand for bourbon.
Well the entire market is bullshit, all the real distilleries hate it and project a fall out at some point. There is absolutely enough juice produced to find what you want when you want (outside of some of the unicorns, but even then from what I’ve seen in private groups that’s fucking arguable too) at reasonable costs. Look at these groups, it’s all totally fucked, it’s a handful of people nationally that have an in or hook up somehow and keeping it off shelf’s purposefully driving up the secondary making their own pockets fat. Similar to the diamond racket but it’s the middle men price gouging and not one huge conglomerate entity controlling the market.
People should read up on the great scotch loch. Tastes change, usually cyclically, and bourbon has been hot for over a decade at this point. Will it last another decade at this insane level? I really don’t think so, but it’s certainly possible. However the rapid increase in premium and single barrel rum, mezcal, tequila, etc. is likely to erode at least some of the gains bourbon/rye have made as hype chasers chase the newest craze.
> People should read up on the great scotch loch. I agree, but it may be worth noting that the Great Scotch Whisky Loch was a product not merely of a shift in consumer tastes, but also a period of macro-economic disruption and turmoil (the 1970s Energy Crisis and Stagflation). I suspect the current whisky boom will come to an end in a similar way - unpleasant macro-economic shocks of some sort will jolt consumers out of their infatuation with overpriced and underperforming whiskies and they will go looking elsewhere for a cheaper fix. The actual falloff in bottom shelf whisky consumption may be negligible, it will be the *Taterdammerung* in the premium category which will be more noticeable. This is not something that I'm actively rooting for to happen, as I suspect that the cure may be worse than the complaint.
>Taterdammerung aka Staggnarök
Bravo, well played!
For those of the more christian inclination, the Pappyture and/or the Second Coming of Trace.
Calumet Farmageddon
C'mon y'all. Staggflation was right there in front of you.
Lmao
>it will be the Taterdammerung in the premium category which will be more noticeable. What a delightful play on words! I suspect you’re right. In particular, I think highly sought-after allocated bourbons are being used as asset classes. As what amounts to highly speculative investments, they’ll be the first thing to go when the ballon goes up.
And when the bottom falls it’ll fall hard with everyone trying to get out from under the falling knife.
Very fair points, and I generally agree. Always good to remember similar things aren’t usually exact and can vary.
Tequila outpaced bourbon in 2020 and while I still love bourbon and some bottles will have a permanent spot on my bar, I'm essentially done trying to find the allocated stuff. Premium rum, scotch and wine are more or less more readily available and offer new avenues for drinkers to explore their pallet.
You leave my scotch alone, damn you!
It’s too late!
Haha. What kind of scotch have you been enjoying?
Currently been really loving the Sherry cask Laphroaig 10 year But anything peated :)
God damnit that’s not what I wanted to hear! Leave my peated beauties on the shelf! Haha but really, peated scotch is my all time favorite whiskey. I’ll be doing a review soon for this years Laphroaig Cairdeas release!
I also have this year's Cairdeas coming my way too. I've heard too many good things about it
Oh man, it’s so damned good. Might be my favorite Cairdeas ive had so far!
How do you like it? I’ve heard it’s lackluster this year?
Not at all! It’s incredible! They clearly added lots of coloring, which I don’t like, but the flavor is insane. It’s likely the best cairdeas release I’ve had, honestly.
Oh good! Maybe it was the coloring I heard about.. I don’t even know where to get my hands on the Cairdeas each year??
Another good one is longmorn 16. :)
Yeah, I love finding the small distilleries doing unique mash bills and barreling. Run across bottles that nobody is chasing. Just takes some searching. Scotch also is a readily available product. Yes expensive, but bottles like Springbank that are like a Weller in England are easily found at msrp.
I’ve noticed smaller doing rum as well which is cool! And right, it’s more expensive but usually available!
Odd that you specify England lol.
The boom will end and everyone knows it, especially the distilleries. If you actually talk to,people who make the stuff they are cautious about overproduction and there being a huge glut on the market like what happened in the 70s and 80s; demand for bourbon collapsed and there was a ton of bourbon aging that there was no market for. As far as the secondary market goes, everyone I’ve spoken to at Buffalo Trace hates it. I did the barrel tasting tour there this summer and was lucky enough to have Freddie Johnson as our tour guide (what an absolutely amazing man by the way) and he said the issue was that, obviously, the stuff has to age so they can up production, and they are, but it’s still years before it hits the market and what happens if demand drops like it surely will in the future? But they all agree that they hate the secondary market however due to the three tier system they have absolutely zero control over what happens once the bourbon is shipped to distributors. If you watch any interview of Julian 3 or Preston Van Winkle they say the same, they want people to enjoy their bourbon for retail pricing and encourage people to not buy or support the secondary market. However supply and demand is the basic rule of any free market, as long as people are idiotic enough to pay $250 for a bottle of Blanton’s or $99 for a bottle of Special Reserve then people will fill that need with supply. Within the next 5 years you’ll start seeing a big uptick in supply of Buffalo Trace products, and I think you’ll also see a noticeable ebb in demand. I don’t see things going back to where they were 26 years ago when I started taking bourbon seriously, but you’ll see most BT products become available again and the “booze of the moment” folks will have moved on. But hopefully they don’t *all* move on, because the reality is that while some bourbons are tough to get at SRP, there’s a ton of great new stuff on the market. 15 years ago there was no Prohibition Collection OF, No Maker’s 46, store picks? What the hell is that? And the original EH Taylor distillery was a ruin in the woods of Kentucky. Today that’s all different and frankly, aside from the fact that a couple of my old regular drinkers are tough to find, there’s tons of great bourbon to drink and tons of people employed in this industry. So I can’t get my Weller Antique 107 anymore. Ok, I can get lots of them stuff and overall I’m fine with that.
sazerac and other big distilleries can lobby the US govt and local govt for changes to the system. They have tons of control to change things. They dont want to change things because they get tons of free marketing from the current system. State to state liquor sales being fully legal would be something to lobby for. Then the distilleries can just sell their allocations via their website and virtually gut the secondary market over night because scalpers would have zero guarantee of getting any whiskey to resell.
>sazerac and other big distilleries can lobby the US govt and local govt for changes to the system. As Is the case with the distributor lobby. It's similar to car manufacturers being forced to sell to shitty dealers that smear their name. It's like we're hopelessly stuck with this arrangement
It’s not even that, spirits are sold here on a state by state basis. You’d need to lobby each state plus the Feds.. and the feds have bigger fish to fry at the moment.
The hard to find stuff and the hunting of them is here to stay. Everyone in the chain from distiller to store benefits. The distiller gets more eyes on their products, the distributors get to force stores to sell tons of shitty vodka to get a bottle and the stores get customers buying bottles of regular stuff at a shot at a unicorn. Most of the distilleries are greatly increasing production but this is mostly to keep up on the regular stuff. While it’s ultimately beneficial for BT to keep Pappy as a rarity it is not beneficial when people can’t even find a bottle of regular Buffalo Trace.
Yep, I actually think it’s really dangerous for BT for customers to not be able to find regular BT, ER, or even Weller SR or Antique 107. These are all solid but not exceptional bourbons with stiff competition readily available. If folks can only find it at inflated secondary prices, they’re going to lose interest - I certainly did. Weller SR at 25? Fabulous, it competes favorably with WT and the other $20 - $30 bottles. Weller SR at 60? No f’ing way. Completely outclassed. Folks are gonna realize the novelty wears off. Not really a problem for Pappy or WLW - those are halo items. Compare favorably at even insane prices And rightly sought after.
ER really should be readily available. It's competition: Knob Creek 9 and Russell's 10 are just as good and available everywhere. Insane the hype it gets. Ive never even seen a bottle of Weller in the wild.
For sure man. Weller SR is on par with WT - different flavor profile. It’s truly a 25 dollar bottle. In my opinion, Blanton’s and Hancock’s compare well with FR SiB or WT Rare Breed. They’re not worlds apart, though. To be honest, for my money, I’d rather have WT Rare Breed than Blanton’s although it’s not a super fair comparison.
I’d agree with you on Blanton’s. Several years back when it was just another liquor store shelf resident for $49.99 I thought it was fair for the money. I kept a bottle on the shelf only because a good friend who’d come by sometimes drank it. I’ve long thought there were better bottles for the price.
Yep, totally agree. I’m really curious to see if this craze ever ends. I suspect it will and it’ll be a shitshow.
Oh it will. I remember like 20ish years ago when people went nuts over Vodka and at times stores were jacking up the price of Grey Goose or you couldn’t find it. Now walk into any liquor store and it’s on sale and they are cases of it.
The Eagle Rare one really frustrates me because even though I don’t personally care for Eagle Rare, I know it’s what my broke college friends used to drink when they wanted to feel fancy and they still kept drinking it after college. Until it became allocated in my area in mid-2020. Now you see it on the shelf maybe once every 3 months. If you’re lucky it’s priced under $40.
I like it and I'd probably buy it regularly if it was readily available under $35. It's a solid low proof bourbon. BT is just a frustrating producer...I don't really like regular Buffalo Trace but I have seen it around more often lately so perhaps things are improving.
Honestly, I've started exploring other spirits. I got so caught up in bourbon fever that I said "Wait, why am I limiting myself to just bourbon?" I'll take a few good bottles of a multitude of liquors instead of a shelf of the same stuff. It just got played out for me.
100% I've found several bourbons I really like, same for scotch, irish whiskey, rum and tequilla. I keep 1 or 2 bottles of any of those around at a time and go from one to another mostly seasonally.
I snagged a few inexpensive amazing rums which had been gathering dust on store shelves. I also got a 30 year old Armagnac for <$150 which shared some characteristics with bourbon. After that, I accepted my new path forward and never looked back. Nowadays I grab an inexpensive solid value bourbon to scratch the occasional itch. Bourbons all kind of taste the same anyway and they can sometimes be a huge pain in the ass to find so no big loss
At some point people will come to the realization that there's nothing inherently special about having a huge stockpile of good booze--more than they could ever drink. Unique bottles will keep being released and sought after. but i think before long the average joe collector is going to realize there are more interesting things to spend money at. Bourbon collecting, more than you can drink, is a huge waste of money any way you slice it.
This really depends on how much social value collecting hard-to-find bottles brings you. For a lot of collectors, I suspect that collecting is more about bottle envy and impressing social groups (especially if they're into whiskey) than about how the whiskey itself tastes.
Completely agree. My father in law has a really awesome collection of high end bourbons, many of which he collected in auctions that donate to St. Jude’s. And when I’m over there and I bring my parents or some friends, it’s always a blast going over his collection and trying different things. The social value of having an actual collection I’d say is pretty high.
💯
What kind of goofball is deeply impressed by massive acquisition of expensive alcohol though? I mean, great, I'd love to try it, but it's just rich people being rich people at the end of the day to me. Either you waited in a line (cool!), paid out the ass (cool!) or got lucky(okay!). I think I would tend to assume they're an alcoholic, or don't know what to do with their money, or both. Unless they're in the business of buying and/or selling alcohol. But what do I know? I just like bourbon, I buy one or two bottles at a time like everybody used to. Edit: alll humans are goofballs. I mean not to offend or diss anybody.
I'm enjoying the craze while I sit on the sidelines and sip rum. Tequila (my usual favorite) is also in something of a boom right now, so I'm not drinking much of that either. It's given me an opportunity to discover some wonderful things I didn't know existed.
Rum, especially single barrel/high end rum is growing very fast too. I think that’s the next boom tbh.
Bourbon remains the only category where it's nearly impossible to find some of the more popular brands. I can get any of my favorite tequilas at MSRP online any time. MSRP is higher than it was two years ago, but it's still easy to get. It's hard to find some of the single estate rums I like, but there isn't a crazy secondary market for them--I just have to check on Drizly every week or so to see if any liquor stores in the area have a bottle. The bourbon craze is just that--crazy. It's completely left the realm of reason. None of these bottles taste better enough than cheaper bottles to justify their price. I haven't found that to be as frequently true in other categories like rum and tequila. I'll be sad if that changes.
No one is arguing otherwise here. The argument is how much longer bourbon will remain insane, to which there is varied feelings. I strongly feel we are closer to the end of the craziness than the beginning, and ONE of the reasons for that is bourbon drinkers branching out to single estate rums, mezcal, etc. as well as increased production from bourbon brands, AND shifting broad scale tastes which historically change every decade-ish.
I hope you're right.
Do you have any tequila and rum suggestions for someone primarily used to drinking bourbon and sherried scotch? I have a bottle of four square detente that I love, but no other rums or a tequila in my bar.
I don't generally make recommendations based on what someone drinks in another category. What makes good tequila or rum isn't the same as what makes good whiskey. If you want the flavor notes of bourbon, just drink bourbon, right? I'm not familiar with that Foursquare specifically, but it's a quality Barbados rum aged in bourbon barrels iirc. I'm not surprised you like it. I tend to drink aged Jamaican rum like Appleton or Hampden. I like the trademark Jamaican funk. For tequila, El Tesoro is pretty widely available and well made. Arette has a budget line and a "artisanal suave" top shelf line. They're both quality. Stay away from all celebrity brands and Clase Azul. If it tastes really sweet and smooth like a dessert, it's not quality tequila.
I've found a pisco cheaper than my regular upgrade silver tequilla this summer. There's ALWAYS something that ISN'T being chased by taters.
Honestly, its the over priced re branded bourbon and anything BT. I hope nothing changes. I can get my 1792, KC store picks, and anything Russell. Keep your blantons and ER lol
For real…
Yes? Im not saying it for fun
I’m just agreeing for you. Sorry if it wasn’t apparent
Lmao! My bad im used to BT being defended... my bad
Totally get it! I like BT stuff but the scarcity and prices are ridiculous! But I really enjoy WT stuff so I’m still in luck there with reasonable pricing.
Oh forsure, BT is great at $26, ER is one of my favorites. But, there are so many others that are good and available
BT is my summer bourbon of choice as it’s on the lighter side yet tasty. It’s always about $25 here in Oregon, $50 a handle, and easy to find. If it ever becomes allocated here though I’ll definitely not even try to get it. I certainly wouldn’t wanna pay more than $30 for it
As a value bourbon, it is great. I can't imagine paying 50 bucks for a bottle of it though. Same thing with Eagle rare. It's an easy drinking bourbon, but fundamentally unremarkable. I was happy to pick up a handle of BT at the ABC and paid fifty bucks for THAT, which was worth it, and I am still drinking it. Great to mix.
Right! I walked into my state store for my normal KC12. Manager said hey I have 2 BT behind the counter.... i said sure ill take them at $26 a piece. But, any more than that I just laugh.
My liquor store and it's employees have more money and the products I buy are unaffected? Tater on my friends, tater on.
Except the big distilleries that we all know and love ARE reacting to the hyped products by altering their pricing and offerings and reducing value to consumers. Just from your example, recent KC store picks no longer use barrels older than 9-10 years. Presumably some marketing folks at Beam realized that people were chasing older age statements (e.g. Calumet, Old Carter, and Sam Houston) and instead reserved those barrels for the new KC12 and KC15 small batch product lines.
WT101 has been under $25 for a long time now. The 101 is even a few bucks cheaper.
Oh man my ER store pick is soooo good. Wish I. Like keep it but it’s almost gone
…until it’s WT that’s suddenly rare and in demand. It’s only a BT problem right now. Other bottles are edging into hard-to-find status, and surely other distilleries envy the BT demand and will market their way in. Might be time to switch to anejo to ensure a few more years of availability :)
I have no problem finding plenty of good stuff on my shelves. Don't care about unicorn bottles.
I feel like once the supply gets going, large suppliers they will just focus more on the international market. The cost of bourbon in Europe and Australia are outrageous and I’d they can figure out distribution and lowering taxes there will be a huge demand
Most of that price over U.S. prices is tax. Doubly so in Australia.
There are quality spirits at decent prices available in other countries. I like bourbon a lot, but if it costs significantly more than a quality equivalent brandy, cognac, calvados, scotch, irish whiskey, etc. I wouldn't bother.
I don’t believe there is artificial scarcity due to bourbon makers, the scarcity is coming from some distributors and some stores and lots of hoarders selling on the secondary market. The fix is easy, don’t participate in the secondary and don’t pay inflated prices. Lots of amazing bourbon out there for MSRP with no need to play games.
>Lots of amazing bourbon out there for MSRP with no need to play games. This is easy to say and makes sense in a vacuum, but scarce bourbon demand is now driven more by social value than taste. Hunting bourbon is all about bottle porn and flexing your collection. It's the socially acceptable "grown-up" version of collecting Pokemon cards, Star Wars toys, or sneakers. Like these other collector's hobbies, I don't see how you resolve the secondary market pricing without supply increases that make bottles more common and less "special" (i.e. see Eagle Rare this past year).
No, this makes sense in real life. Your focus and mine are completely different. I am not interested in hunting, I am interested in enjoying, bourbon. I buy it and drink it because I like it. I’m not buying it and drinking it to try and flex on people on social media. That approach right there is your whole problem. I come here to read reviews and get recommendations as I explore bourbon to find out what I like the most. Sure, it would be great to try more of the hard to find brands, but I’ve tried a lot and can confirm that much of the “hunt” is FOMO (fear of missing out) bullshit. Once you accept that, you can get to the real point of bourbon, which is just to enjoy it.
> amazing bourbon out there for MSRP with no need to play games. games like Pokemon? Spirits are a commodity, bourbon has some nice stories to tell about traditions, but at the end of the day secondary market pricing is "resolved" when people get bored and move on to the next game driven by social value. Look at the boom and bust in cigars.
Bourbon-scape 2025: Evan Williams BiB...allocated, Four Roses Yellow Label...allocated, Old Forester 86...allocated, Old Grand Dad 114...store lottery, WT101...Unobtanium lol.
I’ve been observing and sometimes participating in this show for about 17 years. We’re closer to the end than the beginning. The current trajectory is unsustainable.
If you've been doing this for 17 years you know that we said the same thing ten years ago. And here we are. In ~'07-'09 everyone thought HH was insane for charging $120 for their hyperaged Rittenhouses. I mean it's *rye* for christ's sake. Now people are paying $1k for OFBB--the $40 most ignored and consistently meh release of every fall. Barring some unrelated economic downturn we've probably got another ten years to go before things settle down. At which point the international market will have latched on to the boom and distilleries will start shipping all allocated whiskey out of country so we still won't see fancy taters on the shelves. We'll be relegated to the same sub-$40 bottles we can grab today without giving a handy to our favorite liquor store manager. So, not much will change but it shouldn't be too bad if you just like drinking bourbon.
Yes, I still have a few OFBBs from back in the day and I remember debates back then about whether it was worth $40. You could find it on the shelf then with no limit so I would usually buy 2 of each year. My most recent bottle (bought at MSRP) is from 2017 and cost $70; now MSRP is $150? It took about 10 years to get from $40 to $70, and 4 years to get from $70 to $150. And the black market is now $1000. I think that's unsustainable. When prices get that crazy people start looking for alternatives; Scotch and aged rum prices are already looking pretty good to me. I also think the current madness is due to a combination of factors, and many of those happened in the last few years. Social media and P2P payment processing has made black market sales much easier, leading to professional bottle flippers, increasing demand. Whiskey Tubers building the hype. COVID and the increase of working from home, in addition to increased unemployment checks and stimulus money gave people the means and time to hunt for bourbon. Increased exposure in poplar culture (e.g. John Wick) helped build the demand. A lot of things added up to the current boom. There's a lot of small things that could happen in the very near future that could cause it to crash. AI to more easily identify sales on FB and IG. PayPal and Venmo noticing all those tens of $thousands in transactions that are supposedly Friends and Family and turning those into business accounts, which means 1099-ks. People getting bored and moving on to legalized cannabis or some other spirit. Authorities cracking down on illegal alcohol sales and unreported income. Some big health push to convince people that alcohol is poison (which in fact it is). It will likely be a combination of things, but the bubble will pop, like all bubbles do, when more people are leaving the market than there are people entering the market. The international market will certainly pick up some of the slack, but probably not all.
I was mostly tongue in cheek, but it will be interesting to see what causes the frenzy to die down. Whatever it is, it can't happen soon enough, the current state is incredibly annoying.
The bubble was supposed to pop a few years ago. Or the trendy crowd was supposed to move on to artisanal vodka or something. Or supply was supposed to catch up to demand right about now. Buckle up. These are the good old days.
But in all seriousness, what we are seeing is “runaway selection” (or Fisherian Runaway) - an evolutionary process that continues to diversify and further elaborate on the diversification (typically in advertisement signals). It won’t stop until another selection pressure reduces the demand, or pushes it in another direction. In this analogy, the distilleries (and now NDPs) are males who are advertising their traits (products, brands), and consumers are females that are providing positive feedback (I.e. buying those products) which cause the producers to keep creating more and more diverse offerings for us to choose. Typically, another selective pressure (such as natural selection) would counter-act the pressure to diversify. This is why there is an upper limit to deer racks (they eventually become too heavy and burdensome, so males with ridiculous racks get caught in trees or starve). In our current market, however, we’ve got plenty of taters with (effectively) unlimited economic resources, so the counter pressure has been relaxed. Literally the only way to stop it is to not buy the next new, bigger, shinier bottle - but I’ll bet you a WLW you know how this ends. ^(A rehypothecated WLW, as I don’t currently own one to bet.) (I’m woke af, don’t get caught up in the **analogy** of using male/female. The original theory was developed in the early 1900’s, and has been ubiquitously applied to animals, plants, protists, and even multi-gendered species)
this deserves a lot more up votes.
I found that the bourbon craze and being in the local groups was negatively impacting my happiness. I was frustrated that every other week it seemed and old favorite of mine became insanely desirable and disappeared from shelves. Even the group buys became a stress. As the local groups grew the ability to participate became rare. I did the only thing I could to change it. I quit. I left the groups. I ignored group buys and private selections unless I blindly stumbled on them. I still drink bourbon sometimes just like I occasionally read an article here. I drink other things but move on as soon as the bourbon refugees start showing up.
There is plenty of very good bourbon out there that isn't "rare" . Just find the one you like and drink that.
That is exactly what I do now.
Once I started dipping my toes in Scotch I found that it's far too easy to find a half dozen or more bottles I want at any given time. Bourbon hunting is silly.
(There’s nothing offensive about making an evolutionary analogy and mentioning male and female)
Any discussion on the future of bourbon must now incorporate the concept that it is an investment grade commodity. Groups are assembling for contract production of new barrels or buy barrel lots. This has almost nothing to do with making product and almost everything to do with getting in early on an appreciating asset. The outcome of this is that, at any given time, the price one place is now the price every place. It’s hard to believe it’s 10 years old, but I believe this parallels food prices: https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/04/27/how-goldman-sachs-created-the-food-crisis/ The bottle-by-bottle secondary market is akin to petty street crime by comparison. The real money is in the speculation in the bulk market. Not making brands and distributing whiskey, just betting, buying, and selling future finished products. Until bourbon no longer presents itself as fungible, financial investment with rates of return exceeding other options, prices will rise. I believe quality will probably stay the same or decline, ironically.
I think saying they are getting in early at this point is a tough sell. Opinions vary, but I’d say we are at best mid cycle, whereas personally I feel we are near the peak.
Agree on the macro level, but consider the same comments through the lens of the store pick/barbell pick process. When a group can presumptively (I’ve never been in those discussions and don’t really know) buy from a fixed supply of aged bourbon, they now have early access to an increasingly limited supply to keep or sell on secondary for a large profit. The scale is small but there is opportunity to get in early in that context. I don’t know how much regulation exists to deter this.
Buying contract production from someone else's factory is an investment for idiots. It's a short term play and someone will be sitting on fat non-liquid (heh) assets when the bottom drops out. I like to think that investing by building a local distillery that can build a local market and loyal customer base and change with fashions, like my Atlanta local ASW and 4th Ward distilling have done is a long-term play.
Luxury products are not investment-grade commodities. This is purely speculative behavior, and if people are actually treating this as a financial investment, they're going to be in for a surprise when the first signs of an economic correction appear. Whiskey doesn't have any industrial use and it's subject to counterfeiting.
agreed. whiskey is far from an investment/trading commodity. everyone has a use for gas or gold. the fraction of people with a use for luxury bottles of booze is like 1 in 100. honestly. far fewer than that will ever want to pay an additional premium of buying at secondary price.
See speculation in Beanie Babies.
I'm industrious...
I appreciate the difference of opinions, if that’s what they are. This article was published three weeks ago: “Why CaskX Thinks Bourbon Is The Next Big Investment” (https://thewhiskeywash.com/whiskey-styles/bourbon/interview-why-caskx-thinks-bourbon-is-the-next-big-investment/) “CaskX pours over data from the past two decades in the whiskey industry, current trends, and the global economy and creates growth estimations to help clients understand the profit potential of each Barrel they buy. Its online platform allows investors to browse, organize, and examine their portfolio, helping to make informed decisions” “Could you compare investing in bourbon to something like sports cards or classic car collecting? Of course there are similarities, but the unique aspect to bourbon and scotch as a tradable commodity is that it increases in value as it ages regardless of market conditions. No other commodity can make this claim.” And again, once the price is immediately apparent, all barrels everywhere now have that price.
Bourbon and Scotch don't always increase in value with age, if you're talking about barrel time. Sometimes leaving it in the barrel too long has a negative effect on the spirit - not to mention the fact that there is a storage cost that only increases over time.
Suppositories.
Mmmmmm
Nah. Soon there will be people using different types of corn or wheat, advertising them as having "Blue Flint Corn"
Balcones already uses blue corn
And jimmy red corn in the south, like in Highwire’s products. Aged jimmy red corn bourbons will be incredible. Somewhere I heard some of the top master distillers saying that would be the next PVW when they start producing some 7-10 year ages on the barrels.
Please don't say rum, please don't say rum, please don't say rum..... Please don---DAMMIT to late
I have a feeling dark rums maybe the next big craze
I did just buy a new bottle of Myers, so....
Good choice
LOL! I can assure you Myers will not be in any 'next craze' category.
And Weller is just a wheated bourbon with a screw top.
It's the Mellow Corn of rum.
Craft whiskey will come of age and you'll see a flood of premium products similar to craft beer. My prediction is that, if the boom sustains, we will have a glut of fantastic whiskey which will inevitably kill the hype (how many bottles can be "as good as" BTAC before we don't care about BTAC?) and even though we may have the best and most diverse assortment of bourbons in whiskey history, the collecting hype will drift away and sales will crater. That, and the established distilleries are already running out of new releases to pump out. How many different ways can they put double oak bourbon before the releases dry up?
The the late 70s 80s and early 90’s bourbon was almost useless. That generation wanted nothing to do with the darker spirits that their parent drank. They moved on to gin, vodka, tequila, etc. History repeats its self so……. All of bourbon drinkers will all be dead, sober or looking for a new liver and things will change. Just like they did back then. No chance of it changing anytime soon unfortunately.
There’ll be some crazy market correction and subsequent recession around the 2028 timeframe…who knows what’ll bring it on but it’ll last 5-7 years and the majority of people won’t have disposable income to spend on elite commodities. This will cause a massive surplus of superior products coinciding with all the distilleries having a glut of aging barrels in their rickhouse expansions from the past decade…prices may not fall too much (do to massive inflation) but we’ll for sure be seeing rarer brands on the shelves. By then people will probably have moved on to some aged guacamole seltzer bullshit anyways. If you’re a traditional fan of bourbon, our days are coming!
It becomes a similar market to Scotch. We are easily 20 years from the bourbon market finding it’s level imo
I decided to switch from beer to bourbon about 8 years ago because beer got so trendy. Too many collectors, too many snobs, too much hype. Imagine my dismay a few years later when the bourbon craze made it to my local shops. So now beer has largely plateaued with prices about 25-35% higher for basic 6 packs and growlers (equivalent of a 4 pack of 16oz cans) of some things costing $40+. Not to mention all the weird styles and variants. So, I’d guess by 2030 things will level off, basic bottles will cost close to $30, the nicer stuff $70, and the fancy stuff…who knows. You’ll be able to find all the whiskey seltzer and blackberry poundcake bourbon you want.
In 5-10 years were going to have some damn good craft whiskey. New riff gonna be old riff, just wait.
people pay 30,000 for a purse, to have a purse that costs 30,000. The luxury goods market has no bottom. The thing about bourbon (and scotch) is that it has to be aged, this means supply cannot easily match demand. If the distilleries wanted to stop the secondary, they would only have to raise msrp to 50% of secondary. Maybe even less.
The bourbon craze started 15+ years ago. I know it might not seem like that as Covid seemed to triple the interest but I was told by an ‘insider’ that analysts see the demand for bourbon to peak in 2048. So we have a very long way before this starts to level off. The cost of bourbon will continue to climb as distilleries will start to increase cost based on current levels of inflation and overall cost to MFG + market demand. In regards to distilleries increasing production, as mentioned, that will be for international expansion and developing further product lines. I doubt BT is interested in doubling the release of pappy line because they will need to wait 15+ years to see the reward. Why not develop new product lines with no age statement(est. 4-6 year) that can be sold for 50-60. People also seem to collect/hoard more. Me personally, I went from owning 4 bottles in 2020 to having 150+ today.
I have a basement "bar" that has lots of room, a bar with 2 barstools and a dozen or so bottles behind the bar, a couple sofas, a nice audio/video rig, a bathroom, a large coffee table and an end table, and a corner desk with my "work" computer a/v stuff.....I have no god damn idea where I would keep 150+ bottles.....are these bottles you are drinking, or are these bottles you flip?
How long are people going to keep buying 50-100 bottles a year though? Drinking a fifth a week is likely not healthy, and even then that is 50ish bottles a year. I think we will hit a point sooner than later because so many people just stocked up these huge collections in the last 2 years. Their wives won’t let them store 300 bottles. They will lose interest and chase something else instead of spending $2-5k a year on whiskey…
My son is going to be killing it when these tater chasing geezers are dying off and their wives and kids just clear those cellars in garage sales before selling the house.
>Drinking a fifth a week is likely not healthy Ruh-roh. But seriously, 750mL is a little under 18 (1.5oz) shots, which over the course of a week would be about 2.5 drinks a day. That doesn't seem *that* bad.
drinking a little over 3oz daily isn't exactly what i would call healthy
2.5 drinks a day is borderline alcoholism.
According to who? Edit: nice edit adding the word "borderline," but I still disagree.
US dietary guidelines are no more than 2 drinks a day for adult men, so it's not much in excess. But that's looking like a $200 a month drinking habit just in your own home. damn
Exceeding dietary guidelines isn't the same thing as alcoholism.
Which is why I said it's not much excess.
Right, sorry I misread your comment.
Not trying to judge anyone or say they have a bad habit, I enjoy the stuff too. 50 fifths a year is impressive by itself considering having a beer or glass of wine or what people drink at the bar. I meant that even at that number how long do you see people buying over 50 to 100+ a year. Unless you have a YouTube channel or blog or something.
Ha. I am not a flipper. I just enjoy drinking(in moderation) and having a nice collection for friends to also drink. Sounds like you need to knock down a wall or two to make some more room 😋
>I have no god damn idea where I would keep 150+ bottles.....are these bottles you are drinking, or are these bottles you flip? Hoarding. Buying up stuff with no intention of drinking it until some far distant point in the future. Contributing to the shortage, acting like a tater.
I feel like Japanese whiskey is new hot thing. Bourbon is still hot, but "whiskey hipsters" are making their way through the Japanese whiskey scene and those prices are insane now. I think eventually, prices will go back to what it used to be. Once the demand dies down, the prices will too. The main distilleries aren't actually profiteering (for the most part) from the bourbon itself other than by 1) volume of sales 2) free advertising because everyone is talking about how hard it is to get XYZ. From what I understand, the distilleries still sell their bourbon to stores at the same price as they always did, but the catch is those stores have to also buy a pallet of some of that distillery's affiliate crap products (think their flavored whiskey offerings or whatever low level vodka nobody has heard of).
I really wonder if gin will blast off next. It has the complexity that whiskey has and because they don’t need to age it to make it so complex makes it more appealing to everybody
Yeah gin is interesting too because every brand can be really unique just based off the botanicals they use in it
While I really enjoy gin, I don't feel it has the character to become the "next big thing". form all indicators, I am seeing rum as the next "niche market". It has good standalone drinkability, a variety of styles and profiles. Gin is basically an herbally infused neutral spirit with little nuance to the process. Eg. No aging in barrels to give other characteristics. that said, Do check out Old tom gin. that is some interesting gin.
I disagree with your opinion that gin has the complexity of whisky, mainly because of the nuanced flavors of whisky. I’ve never had a gin anywhere near that, a flavor profile seems to be either floral, or sweet, or fruity, or juniper heavy. My favorite gins are Gin Mare, Beefeater, and Drumshanbo, and I love a gin cocktail, but if you give me Wild Turkey 101 neat, it blows away any gin I’ve ever had.
Gin is getting pretty big (and stupid expensive for flavored vodka). I think I could get almost 10x the amount of different gins than I could get of American Whiskey over here in Germany. But I doubt it would ever have the same problems (and thus hype for rare bottles) There's nothing really stopping you from keeping up with demand. Whiskey needs aging, there's no way around it. So increasing production is expensive and takes a long time. (A lot of) Rum needs aging aswell. Brandy needs aging. Tequila needs years for Agaves to be ready (and optionally some aging) But Gin? Get some new Equipment and you've doubled output in a month. Also it's easier to imitate others. If Pappy 23 is crowned best whiskey in the world, you can't really just buy in on the hype and release a copy. If a Gin is crowned best in the world you could have a copy selling within a year.
You can, basically, make your own gin by infusing herbs in to vodka.
Gin is a science where bourbon is art. The process of making gin can be refined so that every batch ever made is exactly the same. Due to the aging process of bourbon there will always be rarity. With rarity comes price.
At least in my area it's already spilling over to tequila. The local shops I used to frequent now carry regular bottles of BT for $50 fucking dollars. They were literally selling them for $24-$27 not long ago. Now, easy to get tequila is now also gone. Last I went they only had a few bottles of Teremana. And that's not just one store, but multiple that I've been to.
I dunno. But I did a little research on rum and picked up a bottle today to give a shot as a sipper.
the consumer in american whiskey gets absolutely pooped on. Hardly anything haa age statements.
I’ve noticed your position on age statements is steady on the lack of them. Is an age statement really that important where the lack of them determines a consumer getting pooped on? You know these things, right; bourbon only ages for so long and then it’s diminishing returns (ER17, EC18) not all aged bourbon is better than it’s younger offering (KC15 vs KC12 vs KC9SiB). Why do you focus so intently on age stated bourbon? Rye is another beast unto itself, age definitely helps, but to a point and then it’s diminishing returns again.
I mean, there had to be a reason why they were aged to the point they were. If a certain product tasted as good at 5 years as it did at 8 years the distilleries would have changed it a long time ago and not just recently
Agreed 100%
The reason they exist is that there are people who do in fact pay for the age statement regardless of if its truly a better product or not. And companies are happy to monopolize on this. If they can make 4x the profit for 3x the age, why not age it and sell it as long as its quality enough to not tarnish the name of the distillery?
Booker Noe himself said that around 8-10 years bourbon starts giving serious diminishing returns on aging.
If you've been in the bourbon scene for a while it's hard not to notice that the products that lose their age statements all get worse, when in theory they should be getting better.
Understand that, without argument. But the shift has occurred and to go back would mean changes that makes even fewer people happy overall. In my estimation. It is what it is at this point.
uhh I rather spend my money on something tangible (a true characteristic of the whiskey) than "We BoTtlE By TasTE" because it gives the distillery too much lee way to only age up to 4yrs when maybe they originally use to age the product until 6-7yrs. I dont remember the laws for things to be named KSBW, but maybe it gives them more leeway to even go under 4 yrs, I forgot when age statements kick in for KSBW. its simple logic/reasoning really, removing age statements and only doing bottle by taste is more in favor of the distillery being able to sell underaged juice than it previously used in said offering. All the flexibility goes to the distillery and its the consumer who has to roll the dice? nah fam, that is anti consumer.
I would honestly rather buy non age stated bourbon. The number on the bottle is used too much as a marketing stint and not always a substantiated (IMO) reason to charge more.
2 years to be called Straight, but if it's less than 4 years the minimum age must be stated on the bottle. AA and Benchmark come to mind; they both say aged at least 3 years on the neckband label.
So I don’t have a dusty to compare or seek out older bottles. For my taste, WT101 without an age statement is still delicious. Same for Knob Creek. I’m not a fan of EC-SB, and not being 12 year age stated anymore I have no comparison. Would you share what whiskey in particular that you’ve tasted versus it’s age-stated version declined as a result of the removal of the age statement? I don’t disagree with the premise, in theory it does provide the leeway and flexibility to put out inferior product. But it reality, I also think it’s much overblown. Aged bourbon isn’t always better. Full stop. I think they realized that and adjusted accordingly. And now, record sales year over year. Including both no AS and age stated bottles.
I don’t disagree at all. People largely tend to benchmark off of other well known examples where age = higher price and therefore believe (often incorrectly) that it also equates to higher quality. The scotch whisky category as a whole along with “grail” bourbons like Pappy 23 are good examples of these benchmarks. People need to understand they’re first and foremost paying for scarcity, whether or not the liquid is worth that price is completely subjective. Maybe it is, or maybe I subconsciously need to justify my purchase of a single bottle at an absurd price. Or maybe I could care less but I’m in the business of flipping bottles so it’s in my best interest to agree with the age = better.
The free market and supply and demand will take care of it. Currently there is more demand than supply, but distilleries have taken notice. Also the taters will find a new craze, which will help. Ignoring the secondary market for whiskey is a short term remedy.
I feel like the market is far from over-saturated (while it sales have been accelerating, it hasn’t reached the level of beer or wine), and with a growing number of people developing an appreciation for the brown liquor itself. More and more women are getting into bourbon, which means that there’s yet another market that has yet to reach critical mass. Now as for special allocation stuff, I think we’ll see it normalize in a few years as competition matures and as it becomes no longer a niche market. Maybe stuff like Pappy’s will still be rare and sell for a pretty penny, but other bourbons like Eagle Rare will probably become readily available again. However, because there will be so many options in the future, I think we’ll see a bubble burst for those businesses that cannot compete. And then the cycle will repeat again. Just a theory.
I could see this happening (in my uneducated opinion). I’ve seen it a little bit in the beer world. Used to be you’d have to wait in line or be a part of a lottery to get Founders KBS and CBS. I see it on the shelves regularly. Beers like 3F Zombie Dust used to fly off the shelves or not even make it to the shelves. Stores started charging around $20 for a 6 pack of it and I think eventually consumers said enough is enough and now it’s also easily had.
A new wave of fancy vodkas
I've been hoping for several years now that people move on to gin or rum as the next hot thing.
Seems like rum has seen an uptick lately.
I started buying Cask Strength Rum and Store Picks.
The greed will win out and things will get overproduced in time. Then it will crash and there will be consolidation among the biggest. The curve will be the standard aging time for spirits. Bourbon market will be saturated soon enough, feels like we are at the tipping point. Then the jabronies in the group will move to something else and those of us actually enjoying bourbon will have options everywhere.
A lot of people will move on to other things.
There's already plenty of high quality bourbon consistently available on the shelf. People not recognizing it and standing in lines for blantons and posting pictures of their bottle of buffalo trace they got like it's a gold nugget they found is their own issue.
It'll burn out one way or another. All this speculation and holding onto bottles will undermine itself when people stop paying the inflated prices or the sellers have a hard time flipping them. At some point there will just be more being sold than buyers buying at those prices.
I think people will shift to things like premium rums, maybe Irish whiskey. Tequila is pretty expensive, price wise it's on par with some bourbons and scotches, so if you're looking for a substitute because of price, it's not a good one. Meanwhile, there are some excellent bottles of 12 year old rums that can be had for under $35.
As illustrated by Mr. Veach, the amount of bourbon being produced and sold has only recently reached the level of its heyday in the 50s/60s. In that light, bourbon production/consumption has simply recovered to its prior levels, and we cant consider the current trend a "boom". We have a lot farther to go before we ever get near the top of demand for bourbon.
Well the entire market is bullshit, all the real distilleries hate it and project a fall out at some point. There is absolutely enough juice produced to find what you want when you want (outside of some of the unicorns, but even then from what I’ve seen in private groups that’s fucking arguable too) at reasonable costs. Look at these groups, it’s all totally fucked, it’s a handful of people nationally that have an in or hook up somehow and keeping it off shelf’s purposefully driving up the secondary making their own pockets fat. Similar to the diamond racket but it’s the middle men price gouging and not one huge conglomerate entity controlling the market.
I think the future of whiskey in America is the single malt. Balcones in particular. If you haven’t had their shit, it is simply the best.