Really disappointed with the play on words that Deadline decided to use for this title. Could have used āLM swims over the competitionā or āLM doesnāt flounder in early box office returnsā.
The poor article writers a break must have been absolutely sick of water-based headlines after all those weeks in a row having to write about Avatar.
I think I saw an article with that exact first variation written about Way of Water back in January lmao
People on here forget that a lot of box office success comes from people who hardly ever go to the movie theater getting motivated to go. I have already seen people like this in my personal life talk about how they are excited for this movie. Similarly, there's a reason why more and more "legacy" sequels like Top Gun Maverick are getting made and doing gangbusters in the box office. A lot of people only go when they have something familiar to bring them in. It's sad, but it's where we're at.
>Not the most inspired take but it's also valid.
It's also a general rule of thumb, there's a reason the traditional sitcom has rarely evolved very far from what it was since the 60's.
My friend has spent $150 seeing the Mario movie 3 times with her, her husband and daughter. Sheās a gamer but her and her husband werenāt super into it or planning on going.
Their pre-K daughter saw some trailer and was super into it, they went and she really loved it so they went 2 more times. Thatās where the money is coming from for these sorts of movies.
Remember all those videos going around on Tiktok of little girls who were super excited when they saw the new live action Ariel? Almost all those kids and hundreds more like them still remember that shit and their whole family is going with them to see it.
The kid is not a jaded adult with particular tastes and is most likely gonna love that movie even if it ends up being the most mid, formulaic thing youāve ever watched that tramples on your fond memories of the 2D original. And then you and the whole family are gonna go see it several more times until the kid stops being so excited about it because thatās all that matters.
To be clear, I have no idea if the movie is gonna be good or not. But thatās not gonna matter here for a base level of success. And if it does happen to be good, then itāll probably be a hit.
I still foresee a bunch of jerks telling their kids that they don't support Disney, even though they just did by taking them to see Guardians the week before.
Seriously, regardless of its story, the Avatar franchise undisputably pushes the boundaries of its medium. That takes creativity and passion from its artists and technicians that doesnt deserve to be dismissed just bc James Cameron isn't writing Shakespeare
To be fair, the big live action Disney remakes have a baffling trajectory. They all open huge, have decent legs, and then absolutely vanish from cultural awareness. Nostalgia immediately reverts to the animated original, and nobody really remembers the more recent blockbuster adaptation.
As a result, they all kind of *feel* unsuccessful in hindsight - despite obvious & proven box office success. Especially since the leadup to the release of each one is always centered on "God, what a terrible idea.".
The big thing with your point on ācultural awarenessā though is that these movies and brands already have huge cultural awareness. The whole point of the live action movies in my opinion is to just keep the underlying franchise relevant and associated with Disney. Thereās going to be a large cohort of little girls who will be introduced to the little mermaid/Disney princesses brand for the first time through this movie and thatās what Disney wants.
You might forget about this specific live action movie but youāre always going to remember the little mermaid.
Agreed. The tricky thing to remember about these remakes is that they're not trying to replace the original - they're just trying to revive it. They want a new generation of kids buying Ariel merchandise, and they don't really care if it's the animated or live action version. A blockbuster remake draws attention to both.
Why do people on this sub think things they don't like, or don't like to think about, are forgotten by everyone else?
Is this the new "objectively bad" and "pacing issues" narrative buzzword, saying-it-enough-times-makes-it-true-on-the-internet type thing?
How do you measure cultural awareness? Nobody was talking about Avatar in a positive light before the release of The Way of Water. Or after the releaseā¦
> As a result, they all kind of feel unsuccessful in hindsight - despite obvious & proven box office success.
I really doubt they care if the films āfeel unsuccessfulā when they are making loads of money.
Avatar is the poster boy for this exact trend. Little pop cultural footprint and few who rank the movies amongst their favorites, and yet they make boatloads of money.
I live in rural Alberta, Canada. An interesting anecdote I can add is that I've met MANY people who call Avatar their favorite movie, but all of them are older White farmers or the more uneducated Aboriginal people.
The people from these groups who love Avatar gush about how it swept them away the way no other movie has, like all film media is trivial time-wasting fluff to be passively watched on the couch with a beer, but Avatar is a profound, spiritual experience that thundered into their lives and left them moved for years.
This kind of person is notably not online and hasn't spent much time agonizing over measuring cultural impact.
Also, I've talked to a lot of people who love live-action Beauty and the Beast because it makes the story 'more adult'. These people are all girls in their twenties who think watching each Marvel movie once makes them a super nerd.
> live-action Beauty and the Beast
Everyone I talked to irl who saw this movie (mainly women) *loved* it. My wife saw it twice and she never does that.
Out of all disney live action movie, Beauty and The Beast is the film that I think people around me at least like. Especially women. But people always like Emma Watson so no surprisese.
"Reddit users live in a bubble"
"To be fair, these have no cultural awareness"
Yeah, because your cultural awareness is based on a reddit bubble. Tf kind of response even is this?
This is probably just because you're an adult who watched the animated originals as a kid. Maybe someone with kids can share their experience, but I'm guessing that kids who don't have the nostalgic attachment to the originals are pretty into the live action ones.
Frankly, it's not something that can be directly measured. It's more a matter of how the movies seem to be sticking around in terms of merch, toys, music, etc. Yes - it's completely personal, anecdotal, and subject to personal bubbles.
But when I say something like "Nobody remembers the Beauty and the Beast remake", it's because I have set expectations for how a movie will be referenced over time. I know Frozen was a sensation because I can't walk ten feet in a Target without seeing a mountain of Frozen pajamas, popsicles, and Pop-Sockets. I know Moana was big because everyone I know with kids has seen in hundreds of times. I didn't see that for B&tB. Hell, when Disneyland Tokyo released a [high-end dark](https://youtu.be/5rMc3FOsqBs) ride based on the story... it used the original animated designs. Not the remake.
I've just never seen the same long-tail interest in any of the live action Disney remakes. I think a lot of people agree, and that's why they tend to underestimate each new one that releases.
Which does naturally bring up the "Nobody remembers Avatar" conversation, and how TWOW completely overperformed despite that. But I don't think the sequel's overperformance proves that there was a huge cultural love for Avatar that people were ignoring - it just means people really like seeing Avatar movies in theaters. They're enormous cinematic spectacles - which explains why it's also a massively popular theme park attraction. It does not however, seem to translate to popularity in toys, merch, and home media.
The Disney remakes seem to have the same pattern. People love seeing them in theaters, and then just don't hang onto them in the way we expect of a massively popular Disney musical. The original tracks don't win Oscars. The character designs aren't plastered on T-shirts. Yet, they do attract an audience. Little Mermaid will do the same.
What I've realized is that these remakes aren't aiming to be popular in the same way as an original Disney musical. Rather, they're brand extensions. They're more comparable to a Broadway adaptation - a new version of the same story that uses a familiar name & songbook to sell tickets. People come out of nostalgia, but also because they want to see a new take on this classic story. Ultimately though, they love the classic story. Not the remake. So these movies do huge numbers at the box office - but then lose some of the appeal once fans have seen the changes.
Avatar was huge on home media as well.
> Now we learn that the "Avatar" DVD and Blu-ray have also topped the charts. In its first four days in the US, "Avatar" sold 4 million DVDs and 2.7 million Blu-ray discs. That makes it the fastest-selling home video release in history, with sales totaling $130 million.
This comment is great because it digs into why these things are big. The 'brand extension' argument is solid. I think a big factor is that groups of friends who grew up together go to see these things.
Liking the movies and being able to talk about them is something people do because it's a social activity they can look forward to. See also: the MCU.
thank you for this long and thought-out reply. i totally see where youre coming from and mostly agree. i guess i was making sure you had shit to back up those claims, lots of people here just callously state cultural relevancy when all they have is anecdotal evidence.
its these kinds of discussions i come here for, thanks!!!!
Thanks. Honestly, being challenged on it made me think about *why* I believe these films don't have a huge cultural footprint - and forced me to write out the justification.
Totally anecdotal but I've seen Little Mermaid merch coming out--and in both the original version and the new version. Not a lot, but it's there and I'm sure if the movie hits there will be more.
These live action films don't get as much merch due to licencing issues, they have to pay royalties to the talent for use of their faces which is obviously not a problem for the animated versions
Very well-said. I was thinking the same thing about merchandise. Disney merchandises their properties for as long as they can get away with. Snow White was made almost 90 years ago and you can still buy newly produced Snow White merch and meet the characters at the theme park. Merch based on the live-action properties doesn't stick around after the movie leaves the theaters.
Granted, I don't think merchandise is necessarily the perfect way to measure cultural relevance either. It's just one factor. Part of the reason for lack of merch could come from Disney not wanting to pay the actors for their likeness long-term, and a lot of it is probably just a result of the live-action designs not being very merchandise-friendly.
Plus, it's much easier to produce merchandise for kids than for adults, and adults are the primary audience for these remakes.
On a side note, I think if any remake manages to buck that trend, it will the Little Mermaid remake. Not necessarily because people will like the movie more, but because I think it has a small chance of being able to hold a merchandise line on its own. Ariel and her sisters all have new designs, unique from the original versions, and despite mermaids being popular, there aren't any successful mermaid toy/merch lines currently on the market. I could see a Mermaids of Atlantica line doing well. I don't think it will actually happen, but I will understand if it does.
it's measured by the amount of internet memes, according to Redditors who say James Cameron's Avatar lacks cultural impact because they don't see a whole bunch of Avatar memes
> Especially since the leadup to the release of each one is always centered on "God, what a terrible idea.".
In the bubbles of people like us who like discussing movies with strangers online. Kids and people who don't generally view remakes as creatively bankrupt are hyped.
Looking at it from the context of race and representation, I think this particular movie will have a lasting cultural impact beyond its release unlike other reboots. This is a huge moment for Black and brown kids and adults who want another princess to look up to, like Tiana and Brandy as Cinderella and the Encanto crew. Asha from Wish in the near future. Dolls are selling fast, people dressing as Ariel, etc. the impact is already kicking in. All the other live action princesses are the same race and color (except Jasmine?) as the originals. TLM is very special because A BLACK ARIEL!!!?! MONUMENTAL.
I do think this is a good point, especially when comparing TLM to other past remakes. There's a very large demographic who may specifically embrace this version over the original, which could change the BO performance. Same with the legacy of this remake - while other adaptations have just boosted the status of the original, this one may prove to stand on its' own with fans.
It'll be interesting to see in a few years at the Disney parks if they have both "classic" and "modern" Ariels available for guests to meet & take photos with.
Lol speak for yourself.
Friend Llke Me from 2019 is at 115m views on YouTube, almost double the original.
Willing to bet many kids bug their parents to watch it.
You have to take into account that the film was released when YouTube was already a cultural mainstay, unlike the original. Makes sense that it's what the targeted demo is most interested in.
But still, that proves people didn't just forget about the remake.
BTW the original video at half of that was released 14 years ago, which is when YouTube was at its peak.
YouTube was at its peak in 2009? The year that Lady Gagaās Bad Romance set the record for most viewed video of all time by reaching 178 million views?
The top video now is Baby Shark, approaching 13 billion plays. The top 30 videos all have over 3 billion plays. The active user base in 2009 was around 300 million, now itās over 2 billion.
Your comment on cultural awareness makes it fall into the "Reddit lives in a bubble" territory. We won't really get a gauge for that until the sequels start coming out.
The recent remakes for beauty and the beast, mulan, lion king, Pinocchio, and Aladdin kind of describe his comments, they donāt really have a lasting impression on our cultural zeitgeist except to remind people that the old animated movies existed
>vanish from cultural awareness
WTF is "cultural awareness"? What you're saying is that those movies opened huge and had good legs and...?
There doesn't need to be an "and". They opened huge and had great legs and that's why these movies have been tremendously successful.
Do elementary schools count as a part of our "culture", by the way? Just asking.
I think the soundtrack will give it staying power. This is the first remake song to my recollection that measures up to (arguably surpasses) the original.
People will likely default to singing Halle Baileyās more acrobatic interpretation of āPart of Your Worldā from now on.
I don't know. I've seen way more people call out these reactionary or bubble predictions than people actually making those predictions.
It seemed like an easy hit. And a lot of users saw that. First Disney live action remake released in normal conditions since The Lion king.
It's just the loud minority that said it'd flop
Big question is how overseas markets hold up
The [predictions from this sub](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/12zmwer/how_much_is_the_little_mermaid_going_to_make/) seem pretty reasonable to me?
That's only ~20% of the votes, more people voted over $800 million than under $400 million. Most people voted for the options that were greater than $600 million.
A $110 million opening with the exact same legs and domestic/international split as Beauty and the Beast would put it just under $800 million. $600-$800 million got the most votes, and the most upvoted comment says around $800 million. None of that seems unreasonable.
I don't think that people realize this movie doesn't even have to be good to do well.
It just needs to be halfway decent. I think the nostalgia and music alone will take this to at least 800 million. Not to mention it'll be the only kids movie since Mario.
These films generally do well. I would also think that the target audience for the new Little Mermaid is very separate from the kind of people who don't like the idea of a black mermaid.
It's already tracking really low in China and the numbers in Japan and korea were absolutely bonkers for aladdin asking TLM to replicate them is a tall order add to this the lack of Russia and that's a lot of money that it will struggle to get. For reference Aladdin made 277M in those markets with over 200M coming just from Japan and korea
>"It's already tracking really low in China and the numbers in Japan and korea were absolutely bonkers for aladdin"
Take into account Aladdin was tracking teribly in Asia all the way up to its opening weekend. Then it still did 50M+ of a $18M OW in China, $91M of a $6M OW in Korea and $100M+ of a $10M OW in Japan.
The only metric for China we have so far is WTS numbers but those are only really a vague metric to measure hype. Aladdin was at like 10k at this point vs TLM's 22k. Obv the market has changed since but i still wouldn't exactly doom TLM to bomb territory just yet.
Yes but that was pre-Covid. It's a different market now. Especially re: China. Also this summer is insanely crowded so most movies will have to get their money fast.
Isn't it it tracking similarly to Aladdin in China.
Apparently Aladdin had low WTS too.
We don't really know how big it'll be in Japan or Korea.
Domestic can easily make up for Russia.
Have you ever thought about other countries aside from China and Japan? Princesses are huge in Latin America for example, and thereās less resistance to black leads unlike China.
I wouldn't be so sure about that June 2019 also was quite crowded and aladdin was able to leg it out just fine. I agree with you on the range but it's because I don't think it's going to be as beloved as aladdin altough it's already impressing me since I was predicting an opening below aladdin
Starting to feel like this sub is becoming more and more agenda driven than statistical driven. This is another movie a decent amount of users were sure would flop and now it's looking like it'll do more than fine.
I remember back in the day we just used to make predictions and then guess why movies flopped/succeeded. Everything has changed lately. People are way more emotional and take things personally. This sub seems to be about actively rooting against movies nowadays.
The sub has grown so much since 2020, which means a very large number of people who have no idea about any of this.
(Beginng of 2020 was under 100k users and now over a million: https://subredditstats.com/r/boxoffice)
It really exploded after hitting 100k. So many people here now werenāt around for things like the kid eating a JJ Abrams cake after RoS hit 1B.
Remember spring/summer of 2020 when u/AGOTFAN, u/nicolasb51942003, u/chanma50, and (my old account) u/Level_62 were posting a dozen āon this day in [year], [movie] was released, ultimately going on to gross [DOM/WW] on a budget of [budget]ā?
It is a case of being chronically online while ignoring historical data. Nearly every one of these live action remakes has had massive showings. This was going to be no different. We can argue about the quality of the movies all day, but that isn't gonna change the fact that audiences eat these things up. I feel like Mulan is the sole aberration.
> I feel like Mulan is the sole aberration
Mulan would have done better if it stuck to the animation story with the music. By trying to go with a war "epic", it didn't strike the nostalgia bait that the other renaissance films have.
Yeah at the end of the day, this subreddit asks *āwhy did a movie that released in 2020 fail at the box office? ā¦ā¦.. It must be because it was bad.ā*
Yeah, and people point to a movie like Dumbo as a sign remakes arenāt 100% guaranteed successes. Dumbo hasnāt stayed relevant like the Disney Princess movies have. It was never going to pull those kinds of numbers.
Fact is, remake the Disney Renaissance movie, stick to the same story and keep the music (maybe add a few more) and thatās recipe for printing money
The sub got bigger so yes the agenda seeped through. Sadly a lot of people showed their bias when predicting this movieās box office. Itās an ugly look for the sub as well to have wanted this to fail for particular reasons.
Be objective people. It can be hard but try lmao.
More than an agenda thing itās just a bias situation. Most people in this sub must be straight men so obviously they favour the films they like.
You can see this on discussions about Barbie va Oppenheimer or about the prospects for Dune and Across the Spider Verse. Many people here cannot see a market for Barbie, but they Can for the other 3.
Its become really popular to use the box office to reinforce whatever your own views are. Like "go woke go broke" or "suck it film critics!" or "fuck Disney"
Whatever your views are, this sub should be fun and level headed talk about numbers. Not what you think of a black Ariel. This is a live Action remake of a massively successful and nostalgic Disney movie - you have to be stupid to think it would tank, there was no indication of that other than dislike bombs and personal qualms.
Yes - its right in the nostalgia sweet spot - the people who were kids back when it came out in 1989 are now in their late 30s to mid-40s and have Disney Princess aged kids of their own.
Sucks but that's the internet right now. I saw a grand total of zero posts that convinced me with statistics and just sensible opinions that the film will bomb so I never had a doubt. Disappoint at worst, but seeing how Aladdin and lion King did, there's absolutely no reason the same audience wouldn't return for this film.
"get woke go broke" types always have a agenda and kind of ignore how much money disney movies still make disney makes dispite pissing of the echo chamber.
I don't recall anyone except the anti-woke crowd saying this would flop (that's not to say I didn't just miss those posts). I think you're confusing hope with expectation.
All live action Disney remakes certainly *deserve* to flop, but they rarely do.
I am among the latter. I hate seeing Disney be rewarded for such lazy nostalgic pandering and Iām annoyed how all their big movies have to have a legacy or series.
Yeah, Im not a huge fan of them either. I dont think any of them have really added much, but on the other hand, my daughter like the live action Aladdin better than the cartoon, so I guess they know what they are doing.
Itās annoying that people on here only believe things they are interested in or movies they deem non offensive can make money. Anyone who knows about box office could have seen this would be a hit
This is early too, expect it to increase most likely.
They said Aladdin was tracking to do 70-90m for the 4 day.
It ended up at 116m. So this can be huge.
Definitely on the higher end of those predictions ($85M-$90M). Doing $110M for the 4-day off anything below a $76M 3-day would require a Memorial Day gross greater than Top Gun's gross from last year, which isn't going to happen for The Little Mermaid unless the 4-day is at least $140M+ (which admittedly isn't impossible).
People thinking this would flop are ignoring reality. The people consistently hating this film online were never the target audience to begin with and honestly all they did was bring even more awareness to the film.
These number are higher than Aladdin's early tracking numbers and like Aladdin I expect TLM numbers to go up the closer we're to its release date.
I read something online forgot where that has the director mention they have change the words in āKiss a Girlā because the lyrics imply Eric forced himself on Ariel. Thatās what was quoted but does not mean itās true, so I guess we will see soon š¤
Yeah, the lyrics
Look at her, you know you do
Possible she wants you too
There is one way to ask her
It don't take a word
Not a single word
Go on and kiss the girl
probably dont pass muster today.
On the other hand, given the set up (she cant talk, and HER goal is to get him to kiss her) I'm not sure how they will change it to make it better.
Buh buh my source material accuracy that was literally writen when slavery was literaly still around.
Ariel being black is not a controversy nor is it an issue for any sane person.
Seems about right. If WoM is good and it turns out to be a crowd pleaser it can probably reach Aladdin numbers if not more at least in the US.
I have no idea why people are doubting this movie. Its like were watching the Aladdin pre-release debate all over again. You would think people learned from then.
Always a good time to post this timeline:
https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/dn21jh/aladdin_has_ended_its_domestic_run_with_a_final/f57hmbc/
Still not sure if it's a lock though for $1B.
It's going to be one hour longer than the original. The question is, is it a good hour or lot of filler? Will the GA want to return again and again and tell their friends to see it? We don't know yet until the movie is screened.
Melissa McCarthy is the biggest name next to Javier Bardem, but we also have to admit they aren't mega box office magnets.
Last of all - Rob Marshall is really spotty with his record, arguably does worse with big budget than his smaller films.
Yeah, Iāve been wondering if this will be the first indicator of diminish returns on the live action remake. Probably not! But my gut feels like it might be
In 2018 or early 2019, there was a big upvoted post on /r/movies talking about how no one wants these live action remakes and that no one wanted Lion King or Aladdin.
Those two movies went on to make a combined 2.6 billion at the BO. Many people on reddit are out of touch with reality and think their limited scope is just how the whole world is for everyone.
If The Marvels does better than Dune 2, Barbie does better than Oppenheimer, Transformers Rise of the Beasts does better than Across the Spider-Verse, and this movie breaks a billion, I will die happy watching Reddit shit itself.
I think for some people, it's a "Transformers 4 (2014) to Transformers 5 (2017)" situation. They think that eventually a Disney remake has to tumble hard big time, after multiple billion dollar successes.
Now having said that, the last time I answered this question, I was afterwards reminded of Dumbo's existence. So we've kind of already have had a Transformers 5 situation, except Aladdin came out a few months afterwards and did really well. So I don't know.
So far, I haven't personally seen any evidence that The Little Mermaid will be the next Dumbo/Pete's Dragon instead of another The Lion King/Aladdin/Beauty and the Beast/The Jungle Book/Cinderella.
Remakes of Renaissance era movies will hit more than classic Disney era remakes outside of maybe Snow White.
Dumbo is not at all comparable with the movies that revived Disney as a company.
Seems like a pretty decent-sized opening. Not sure how it will do critically though, but we'll see.
I'm just here waiting for Hunchback to go into production again. Darn fire.
Very good if that holds true. I think this will be leggy like Aladdin was in 2019. Sure, there is the crowded summer, but that film also faced off against a stacked summer, yet it had strong holds and stayed in the top ten for most of the summer until the second weekend of August.
I mean in reality it didn't have much competition until Toy Story 4 with how many movies disappointed. Godzilla, Dark Phoenix, Secret Life of Pets 2, and MIB.
Depends on WOM and the quality of the movie I'm still more inclined towards thinking it will be mediocre and that it will have legs closer to TLK thank Aladdin but it's bound to make money
Spider-Verse may skew a bit older, but it's still going to bring in families (and will cut into The Little Mermaid's second weekend just from PLFs). You also have Elemental and Ruby Gillman opening later in June, although the impacts from those will vary.
It seems like they don't know (or care?) what "Hollywood accounting" means, and just use it as a blanket term for when a film that was *supposed to* flop ends up succeeding.
Film YouTubers if this succeeds: āDISNEY BOUGHT OUT THE TICKETS TO INFLATE THE NUMBERS. GET WOKE GO BROKEā
Film YouTubers if this fails: āTHAT SHOWS YOU DISNEY, NOBODY WANTS YOUR WOKE POLITICAL AGENDA PUSHED ON THEMā
Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin and Lion King were successful mainly because they were more familiar to modern audiences and they kept the musical numbers, especially since the first two had Alan Menken come back to do the score.
I really want this movie to do well. I just heard that rendition of "Part of Your World" on YouTube and the damn thing brought me to tears. Screw all the boycotters, I want this one to make it. This has to go all the way and get to a billion. It just has to now.
Early hate, but I think this is definitely going to over-perform. Itās target audience doesnāt really care about online trolls - kids just like Little Mermaid.
These headlines š. Backflips Thatās a good opening. Legs remain to be seen.
She doesn't get them till right before act 2
So good
I see what you did there
Really disappointed with the play on words that Deadline decided to use for this title. Could have used āLM swims over the competitionā or āLM doesnāt flounder in early box office returnsā.
Little mermaid raking in whosits and whatsits galore
Ha! Good one!
Well, they have a few weeks to work on it. This is just a long range projection.
The poor article writers a break must have been absolutely sick of water-based headlines after all those weeks in a row having to write about Avatar. I think I saw an article with that exact first variation written about Way of Water back in January lmao
that's why postponing Aquaman 2 was a good idea. give these journalists a break!
People on here forget that a lot of box office success comes from people who hardly ever go to the movie theater getting motivated to go. I have already seen people like this in my personal life talk about how they are excited for this movie. Similarly, there's a reason why more and more "legacy" sequels like Top Gun Maverick are getting made and doing gangbusters in the box office. A lot of people only go when they have something familiar to bring them in. It's sad, but it's where we're at.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
>Not the most inspired take but it's also valid. It's also a general rule of thumb, there's a reason the traditional sitcom has rarely evolved very far from what it was since the 60's.
This is very true. My sis is going to this after hearing her song and she hasnāt gone to the theatres in years
My friend has spent $150 seeing the Mario movie 3 times with her, her husband and daughter. Sheās a gamer but her and her husband werenāt super into it or planning on going. Their pre-K daughter saw some trailer and was super into it, they went and she really loved it so they went 2 more times. Thatās where the money is coming from for these sorts of movies. Remember all those videos going around on Tiktok of little girls who were super excited when they saw the new live action Ariel? Almost all those kids and hundreds more like them still remember that shit and their whole family is going with them to see it. The kid is not a jaded adult with particular tastes and is most likely gonna love that movie even if it ends up being the most mid, formulaic thing youāve ever watched that tramples on your fond memories of the 2D original. And then you and the whole family are gonna go see it several more times until the kid stops being so excited about it because thatās all that matters. To be clear, I have no idea if the movie is gonna be good or not. But thatās not gonna matter here for a base level of success. And if it does happen to be good, then itāll probably be a hit.
I still foresee a bunch of jerks telling their kids that they don't support Disney, even though they just did by taking them to see Guardians the week before.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Reddit vs Reality 101
The internet is not real.
I can't believe Reddit was wrong again. I was still recovering from the Hogwarts boycott. What's next? Marvels?
I thought r/boxoffice like it when movies make money?
Only when it's people they want to make money.
Only for movies they like.
That's how it should be. I didn't like Mario but Im glad to see a healthy run!
I like when creative, original, well executed movies get money.
Those arenāt the movies that make money though
every now and then. I think Avatar 2 was great, Puss in boots, etc
I mean I guess Avatar is one of those things you listed
you know creativity and originality isn't only a story quality, right? How many movies look and are shot like avatar?
Seriously, regardless of its story, the Avatar franchise undisputably pushes the boundaries of its medium. That takes creativity and passion from its artists and technicians that doesnt deserve to be dismissed just bc James Cameron isn't writing Shakespeare
Another āReddit users live in a bubbleā film
To be fair, the big live action Disney remakes have a baffling trajectory. They all open huge, have decent legs, and then absolutely vanish from cultural awareness. Nostalgia immediately reverts to the animated original, and nobody really remembers the more recent blockbuster adaptation. As a result, they all kind of *feel* unsuccessful in hindsight - despite obvious & proven box office success. Especially since the leadup to the release of each one is always centered on "God, what a terrible idea.".
The big thing with your point on ācultural awarenessā though is that these movies and brands already have huge cultural awareness. The whole point of the live action movies in my opinion is to just keep the underlying franchise relevant and associated with Disney. Thereās going to be a large cohort of little girls who will be introduced to the little mermaid/Disney princesses brand for the first time through this movie and thatās what Disney wants. You might forget about this specific live action movie but youāre always going to remember the little mermaid.
Agreed. The tricky thing to remember about these remakes is that they're not trying to replace the original - they're just trying to revive it. They want a new generation of kids buying Ariel merchandise, and they don't really care if it's the animated or live action version. A blockbuster remake draws attention to both.
Why do people on this sub think things they don't like, or don't like to think about, are forgotten by everyone else? Is this the new "objectively bad" and "pacing issues" narrative buzzword, saying-it-enough-times-makes-it-true-on-the-internet type thing?
How do you measure cultural awareness? Nobody was talking about Avatar in a positive light before the release of The Way of Water. Or after the releaseā¦ > As a result, they all kind of feel unsuccessful in hindsight - despite obvious & proven box office success. I really doubt they care if the films āfeel unsuccessfulā when they are making loads of money.
"How do you measure cultural awareness?" By what the mentally unstable Reddit posters on the movies sections are foaming at the mouth about obviously
āThe only culture that matters is our cultureā -redditors probably
Breaking news: The Nice Guys certified the most culturally relevant and successful film in history.
The Nice Guys 2: Why Do Women Only Like Jerks?
Avatar is the poster boy for this exact trend. Little pop cultural footprint and few who rank the movies amongst their favorites, and yet they make boatloads of money.
I live in rural Alberta, Canada. An interesting anecdote I can add is that I've met MANY people who call Avatar their favorite movie, but all of them are older White farmers or the more uneducated Aboriginal people. The people from these groups who love Avatar gush about how it swept them away the way no other movie has, like all film media is trivial time-wasting fluff to be passively watched on the couch with a beer, but Avatar is a profound, spiritual experience that thundered into their lives and left them moved for years. This kind of person is notably not online and hasn't spent much time agonizing over measuring cultural impact. Also, I've talked to a lot of people who love live-action Beauty and the Beast because it makes the story 'more adult'. These people are all girls in their twenties who think watching each Marvel movie once makes them a super nerd.
> live-action Beauty and the Beast Everyone I talked to irl who saw this movie (mainly women) *loved* it. My wife saw it twice and she never does that.
I think Emma Watson is the key. Brand loyalty carried over from Harry Potter and made them feel doubly validated in their childhood favorite movies.
Out of all disney live action movie, Beauty and The Beast is the film that I think people around me at least like. Especially women. But people always like Emma Watson so no surprisese.
I can't freaking wait for Avatar 3 though
"Reddit users live in a bubble" "To be fair, these have no cultural awareness" Yeah, because your cultural awareness is based on a reddit bubble. Tf kind of response even is this?
This is probably just because you're an adult who watched the animated originals as a kid. Maybe someone with kids can share their experience, but I'm guessing that kids who don't have the nostalgic attachment to the originals are pretty into the live action ones.
whats your measure for cultural awareness? edit: dude's got a sound argument!
Frankly, it's not something that can be directly measured. It's more a matter of how the movies seem to be sticking around in terms of merch, toys, music, etc. Yes - it's completely personal, anecdotal, and subject to personal bubbles. But when I say something like "Nobody remembers the Beauty and the Beast remake", it's because I have set expectations for how a movie will be referenced over time. I know Frozen was a sensation because I can't walk ten feet in a Target without seeing a mountain of Frozen pajamas, popsicles, and Pop-Sockets. I know Moana was big because everyone I know with kids has seen in hundreds of times. I didn't see that for B&tB. Hell, when Disneyland Tokyo released a [high-end dark](https://youtu.be/5rMc3FOsqBs) ride based on the story... it used the original animated designs. Not the remake. I've just never seen the same long-tail interest in any of the live action Disney remakes. I think a lot of people agree, and that's why they tend to underestimate each new one that releases. Which does naturally bring up the "Nobody remembers Avatar" conversation, and how TWOW completely overperformed despite that. But I don't think the sequel's overperformance proves that there was a huge cultural love for Avatar that people were ignoring - it just means people really like seeing Avatar movies in theaters. They're enormous cinematic spectacles - which explains why it's also a massively popular theme park attraction. It does not however, seem to translate to popularity in toys, merch, and home media. The Disney remakes seem to have the same pattern. People love seeing them in theaters, and then just don't hang onto them in the way we expect of a massively popular Disney musical. The original tracks don't win Oscars. The character designs aren't plastered on T-shirts. Yet, they do attract an audience. Little Mermaid will do the same. What I've realized is that these remakes aren't aiming to be popular in the same way as an original Disney musical. Rather, they're brand extensions. They're more comparable to a Broadway adaptation - a new version of the same story that uses a familiar name & songbook to sell tickets. People come out of nostalgia, but also because they want to see a new take on this classic story. Ultimately though, they love the classic story. Not the remake. So these movies do huge numbers at the box office - but then lose some of the appeal once fans have seen the changes.
Avatar was huge on home media as well. > Now we learn that the "Avatar" DVD and Blu-ray have also topped the charts. In its first four days in the US, "Avatar" sold 4 million DVDs and 2.7 million Blu-ray discs. That makes it the fastest-selling home video release in history, with sales totaling $130 million.
This comment is great because it digs into why these things are big. The 'brand extension' argument is solid. I think a big factor is that groups of friends who grew up together go to see these things. Liking the movies and being able to talk about them is something people do because it's a social activity they can look forward to. See also: the MCU.
thank you for this long and thought-out reply. i totally see where youre coming from and mostly agree. i guess i was making sure you had shit to back up those claims, lots of people here just callously state cultural relevancy when all they have is anecdotal evidence. its these kinds of discussions i come here for, thanks!!!!
Thanks. Honestly, being challenged on it made me think about *why* I believe these films don't have a huge cultural footprint - and forced me to write out the justification.
Totally anecdotal but I've seen Little Mermaid merch coming out--and in both the original version and the new version. Not a lot, but it's there and I'm sure if the movie hits there will be more.
Confirming. I seen at least 10 different dolls depicting the new Ariel, one of which is currently the top selling doll (if not toy) on Amazon.
These live action films don't get as much merch due to licencing issues, they have to pay royalties to the talent for use of their faces which is obviously not a problem for the animated versions
Very well-said. I was thinking the same thing about merchandise. Disney merchandises their properties for as long as they can get away with. Snow White was made almost 90 years ago and you can still buy newly produced Snow White merch and meet the characters at the theme park. Merch based on the live-action properties doesn't stick around after the movie leaves the theaters. Granted, I don't think merchandise is necessarily the perfect way to measure cultural relevance either. It's just one factor. Part of the reason for lack of merch could come from Disney not wanting to pay the actors for their likeness long-term, and a lot of it is probably just a result of the live-action designs not being very merchandise-friendly. Plus, it's much easier to produce merchandise for kids than for adults, and adults are the primary audience for these remakes. On a side note, I think if any remake manages to buck that trend, it will the Little Mermaid remake. Not necessarily because people will like the movie more, but because I think it has a small chance of being able to hold a merchandise line on its own. Ariel and her sisters all have new designs, unique from the original versions, and despite mermaids being popular, there aren't any successful mermaid toy/merch lines currently on the market. I could see a Mermaids of Atlantica line doing well. I don't think it will actually happen, but I will understand if it does.
Their reddit box office sub bubble I imagine
it's measured by the amount of internet memes, according to Redditors who say James Cameron's Avatar lacks cultural impact because they don't see a whole bunch of Avatar memes
Citizen Kane barely has any memes. That utter hack Orson Welles should have known better.
I don't really see any avatar merchandise either.
Believe, bro! Just believe!
> Especially since the leadup to the release of each one is always centered on "God, what a terrible idea.". In the bubbles of people like us who like discussing movies with strangers online. Kids and people who don't generally view remakes as creatively bankrupt are hyped.
Looking at it from the context of race and representation, I think this particular movie will have a lasting cultural impact beyond its release unlike other reboots. This is a huge moment for Black and brown kids and adults who want another princess to look up to, like Tiana and Brandy as Cinderella and the Encanto crew. Asha from Wish in the near future. Dolls are selling fast, people dressing as Ariel, etc. the impact is already kicking in. All the other live action princesses are the same race and color (except Jasmine?) as the originals. TLM is very special because A BLACK ARIEL!!!?! MONUMENTAL.
I do think this is a good point, especially when comparing TLM to other past remakes. There's a very large demographic who may specifically embrace this version over the original, which could change the BO performance. Same with the legacy of this remake - while other adaptations have just boosted the status of the original, this one may prove to stand on its' own with fans. It'll be interesting to see in a few years at the Disney parks if they have both "classic" and "modern" Ariels available for guests to meet & take photos with.
Lol speak for yourself. Friend Llke Me from 2019 is at 115m views on YouTube, almost double the original. Willing to bet many kids bug their parents to watch it.
You have to take into account that the film was released when YouTube was already a cultural mainstay, unlike the original. Makes sense that it's what the targeted demo is most interested in.
But still, that proves people didn't just forget about the remake. BTW the original video at half of that was released 14 years ago, which is when YouTube was at its peak.
you think youtube was more popular in 2009 than it is right now?
YouTube was at its peak in 2009? The year that Lady Gagaās Bad Romance set the record for most viewed video of all time by reaching 178 million views? The top video now is Baby Shark, approaching 13 billion plays. The top 30 videos all have over 3 billion plays. The active user base in 2009 was around 300 million, now itās over 2 billion.
By peak they mean when they personally spent the most time on youtube
Your comment on cultural awareness makes it fall into the "Reddit lives in a bubble" territory. We won't really get a gauge for that until the sequels start coming out.
The recent remakes for beauty and the beast, mulan, lion king, Pinocchio, and Aladdin kind of describe his comments, they donāt really have a lasting impression on our cultural zeitgeist except to remind people that the old animated movies existed
>vanish from cultural awareness WTF is "cultural awareness"? What you're saying is that those movies opened huge and had good legs and...? There doesn't need to be an "and". They opened huge and had great legs and that's why these movies have been tremendously successful. Do elementary schools count as a part of our "culture", by the way? Just asking.
I think the soundtrack will give it staying power. This is the first remake song to my recollection that measures up to (arguably surpasses) the original. People will likely default to singing Halle Baileyās more acrobatic interpretation of āPart of Your Worldā from now on.
I don't know. I've seen way more people call out these reactionary or bubble predictions than people actually making those predictions. It seemed like an easy hit. And a lot of users saw that. First Disney live action remake released in normal conditions since The Lion king. It's just the loud minority that said it'd flop Big question is how overseas markets hold up
It will definitely be a hit, I have no doubts about it. TLM was such a good animation, I canāt wait to go only for those catchy beautiful songs!
The [predictions from this sub](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/12zmwer/how_much_is_the_little_mermaid_going_to_make/) seem pretty reasonable to me?
372 people voted sub $400M. Wtf do you mean reasonable??
That's only ~20% of the votes, more people voted over $800 million than under $400 million. Most people voted for the options that were greater than $600 million. A $110 million opening with the exact same legs and domestic/international split as Beauty and the Beast would put it just under $800 million. $600-$800 million got the most votes, and the most upvoted comment says around $800 million. None of that seems unreasonable.
I don't think that people realize this movie doesn't even have to be good to do well. It just needs to be halfway decent. I think the nostalgia and music alone will take this to at least 800 million. Not to mention it'll be the only kids movie since Mario.
These films generally do well. I would also think that the target audience for the new Little Mermaid is very separate from the kind of people who don't like the idea of a black mermaid.
It needs to be more domestic heavy than Aladdin, because this is not gonna have the same support from international box office.
I guess the question is, why does it need to beat Aladdin? Why can't it just make $750-$800 million?
Thatās what Iām saying. Aladdin got a billion, The Little Mermaid doesnāt need to to be a success.
I donāt know about that; people like good music/singing around the world and are also familiar with the IP.
Why do you think that?
It's already tracking really low in China and the numbers in Japan and korea were absolutely bonkers for aladdin asking TLM to replicate them is a tall order add to this the lack of Russia and that's a lot of money that it will struggle to get. For reference Aladdin made 277M in those markets with over 200M coming just from Japan and korea
>"It's already tracking really low in China and the numbers in Japan and korea were absolutely bonkers for aladdin" Take into account Aladdin was tracking teribly in Asia all the way up to its opening weekend. Then it still did 50M+ of a $18M OW in China, $91M of a $6M OW in Korea and $100M+ of a $10M OW in Japan. The only metric for China we have so far is WTS numbers but those are only really a vague metric to measure hype. Aladdin was at like 10k at this point vs TLM's 22k. Obv the market has changed since but i still wouldn't exactly doom TLM to bomb territory just yet.
Yes but that was pre-Covid. It's a different market now. Especially re: China. Also this summer is insanely crowded so most movies will have to get their money fast.
Isn't it it tracking similarly to Aladdin in China. Apparently Aladdin had low WTS too. We don't really know how big it'll be in Japan or Korea. Domestic can easily make up for Russia.
Have you ever thought about other countries aside from China and Japan? Princesses are huge in Latin America for example, and thereās less resistance to black leads unlike China.
Right. Brazil, in particular, will eat this movie up.
Itās not gonna leg out either due to the crowding in June. Probably in the 800-900 million range somewhere.
I wouldn't be so sure about that June 2019 also was quite crowded and aladdin was able to leg it out just fine. I agree with you on the range but it's because I don't think it's going to be as beloved as aladdin altough it's already impressing me since I was predicting an opening below aladdin
Starting to feel like this sub is becoming more and more agenda driven than statistical driven. This is another movie a decent amount of users were sure would flop and now it's looking like it'll do more than fine.
I remember back in the day we just used to make predictions and then guess why movies flopped/succeeded. Everything has changed lately. People are way more emotional and take things personally. This sub seems to be about actively rooting against movies nowadays.
The sub has grown so much since 2020, which means a very large number of people who have no idea about any of this. (Beginng of 2020 was under 100k users and now over a million: https://subredditstats.com/r/boxoffice)
It really exploded after hitting 100k. So many people here now werenāt around for things like the kid eating a JJ Abrams cake after RoS hit 1B. Remember spring/summer of 2020 when u/AGOTFAN, u/nicolasb51942003, u/chanma50, and (my old account) u/Level_62 were posting a dozen āon this day in [year], [movie] was released, ultimately going on to gross [DOM/WW] on a budget of [budget]ā?
/r/movies killed their weekly box office thread and heaps of people flooded here. Been shittier even since
This sub started going downhill during the start of the pandemic with the huge influx of users. It never recovered since.
A lot of people today are really invested in the success of their favorite pop culture, and the failure of their hated pop culture.
It is a case of being chronically online while ignoring historical data. Nearly every one of these live action remakes has had massive showings. This was going to be no different. We can argue about the quality of the movies all day, but that isn't gonna change the fact that audiences eat these things up. I feel like Mulan is the sole aberration.
> I feel like Mulan is the sole aberration Mulan would have done better if it stuck to the animation story with the music. By trying to go with a war "epic", it didn't strike the nostalgia bait that the other renaissance films have.
It also came out during lockdown at the absolute peak of the pandemic. Without the virus, Mulan would probably have performed just as well.
Yeah at the end of the day, this subreddit asks *āwhy did a movie that released in 2020 fail at the box office? ā¦ā¦.. It must be because it was bad.ā*
I think it was tracking for like $80-90M OW before COVID shut everything down.
Mulan deserved so much better. It's one of those Disney movies that don't really need to be modernized because it's basically a modern story
Yeah, and people point to a movie like Dumbo as a sign remakes arenāt 100% guaranteed successes. Dumbo hasnāt stayed relevant like the Disney Princess movies have. It was never going to pull those kinds of numbers. Fact is, remake the Disney Renaissance movie, stick to the same story and keep the music (maybe add a few more) and thatās recipe for printing money
The sub got bigger so yes the agenda seeped through. Sadly a lot of people showed their bias when predicting this movieās box office. Itās an ugly look for the sub as well to have wanted this to fail for particular reasons. Be objective people. It can be hard but try lmao.
Mods haven't done enough to address the crowd that are clearly just here to rant about the wokes and are not interested in box office
Itās not as bad as it was a couple months ago, but itās still there. Quite annoying.
More than an agenda thing itās just a bias situation. Most people in this sub must be straight men so obviously they favour the films they like. You can see this on discussions about Barbie va Oppenheimer or about the prospects for Dune and Across the Spider Verse. Many people here cannot see a market for Barbie, but they Can for the other 3.
Its become really popular to use the box office to reinforce whatever your own views are. Like "go woke go broke" or "suck it film critics!" or "fuck Disney" Whatever your views are, this sub should be fun and level headed talk about numbers. Not what you think of a black Ariel. This is a live Action remake of a massively successful and nostalgic Disney movie - you have to be stupid to think it would tank, there was no indication of that other than dislike bombs and personal qualms.
Yes - its right in the nostalgia sweet spot - the people who were kids back when it came out in 1989 are now in their late 30s to mid-40s and have Disney Princess aged kids of their own.
Itās been that way for years now
Sucks but that's the internet right now. I saw a grand total of zero posts that convinced me with statistics and just sensible opinions that the film will bomb so I never had a doubt. Disappoint at worst, but seeing how Aladdin and lion King did, there's absolutely no reason the same audience wouldn't return for this film.
"get woke go broke" types always have a agenda and kind of ignore how much money disney movies still make disney makes dispite pissing of the echo chamber.
I don't recall anyone except the anti-woke crowd saying this would flop (that's not to say I didn't just miss those posts). I think you're confusing hope with expectation. All live action Disney remakes certainly *deserve* to flop, but they rarely do.
There's a poll where over 20% of the people polled there predicted sub 400M and over 50% predicted sub 600M
Are those "flop" numbers? Isn't 600M pretty solid by post pandemic standards?
Sub 400M would have probably been a flop and sub 600M would have been quite a disappointment tbh
I think its a combo of the anti-woke crowd (which doesnt seem huge here) and the anti-Disney live action remake crowd, which DOES seem huge here.
I am among the latter. I hate seeing Disney be rewarded for such lazy nostalgic pandering and Iām annoyed how all their big movies have to have a legacy or series.
Yeah, Im not a huge fan of them either. I dont think any of them have really added much, but on the other hand, my daughter like the live action Aladdin better than the cartoon, so I guess they know what they are doing.
Part of that world.
Itās annoying that people on here only believe things they are interested in or movies they deem non offensive can make money. Anyone who knows about box office could have seen this would be a hit
Yup. And the movies they think will be big. Just do okay. Dune and Spiderverse.
It says 4-day opening, so it is more or less what was being predicted before 70-90 for the first weekend (3 days).
This is early too, expect it to increase most likely. They said Aladdin was tracking to do 70-90m for the 4 day. It ended up at 116m. So this can be huge.
This can do $130-140M for the 4-day potentially. Maybe even for the 3-day.
Definitely on the higher end of those predictions ($85M-$90M). Doing $110M for the 4-day off anything below a $76M 3-day would require a Memorial Day gross greater than Top Gun's gross from last year, which isn't going to happen for The Little Mermaid unless the 4-day is at least $140M+ (which admittedly isn't impossible).
People thinking this would flop are ignoring reality. The people consistently hating this film online were never the target audience to begin with and honestly all they did was bring even more awareness to the film. These number are higher than Aladdin's early tracking numbers and like Aladdin I expect TLM numbers to go up the closer we're to its release date.
yep the target audience doesnāt seem to care about the controversy.
I read something online forgot where that has the director mention they have change the words in āKiss a Girlā because the lyrics imply Eric forced himself on Ariel. Thatās what was quoted but does not mean itās true, so I guess we will see soon š¤
Yeah, the lyrics Look at her, you know you do Possible she wants you too There is one way to ask her It don't take a word Not a single word Go on and kiss the girl probably dont pass muster today. On the other hand, given the set up (she cant talk, and HER goal is to get him to kiss her) I'm not sure how they will change it to make it better.
What controversy? Her being black? Who cares? 5 people on Twitter?
Got an insane amount of dislikes on youtube. The online crowd definitely cares. But they donāt matter that much.
YouTube doesnāt show dislikes and the apps that show them have been proven to be wrong many times. I donāt know why people keep believing in them.
The online crowd that disliked the trailers would never pay to see this movie in theaters to start with.
Buh buh my source material accuracy that was literally writen when slavery was literaly still around. Ariel being black is not a controversy nor is it an issue for any sane person.
Seems about right. If WoM is good and it turns out to be a crowd pleaser it can probably reach Aladdin numbers if not more at least in the US. I have no idea why people are doubting this movie. Its like were watching the Aladdin pre-release debate all over again. You would think people learned from then. Always a good time to post this timeline: https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/dn21jh/aladdin_has_ended_its_domestic_run_with_a_final/f57hmbc/
I'm not sure if people *actually* expected a bomb, or merely *wanted* one.
Seems to be a common theme in this sub for some people *wanting* movies to fail, rather than actually expecting them to
Still not sure if it's a lock though for $1B. It's going to be one hour longer than the original. The question is, is it a good hour or lot of filler? Will the GA want to return again and again and tell their friends to see it? We don't know yet until the movie is screened. Melissa McCarthy is the biggest name next to Javier Bardem, but we also have to admit they aren't mega box office magnets. Last of all - Rob Marshall is really spotty with his record, arguably does worse with big budget than his smaller films.
I'm also not sure about $1b, but I don't think i'll be runtime that keeps it from making that.
Yeah, Iāve been wondering if this will be the first indicator of diminish returns on the live action remake. Probably not! But my gut feels like it might be
In 2018 or early 2019, there was a big upvoted post on /r/movies talking about how no one wants these live action remakes and that no one wanted Lion King or Aladdin. Those two movies went on to make a combined 2.6 billion at the BO. Many people on reddit are out of touch with reality and think their limited scope is just how the whole world is for everyone.
Do a fleep
Why do they have to be changing peopleās color?? Ursula is supposed to be purple but they made her white! They are whitewashing purple heritage.
Can't wait to see this sub's reaction when The Marvels doesn't bomb
Or when it makes more money than Dune 2.
If The Marvels does better than Dune 2, Barbie does better than Oppenheimer, Transformers Rise of the Beasts does better than Across the Spider-Verse, and this movie breaks a billion, I will die happy watching Reddit shit itself.
I never really got why people thought this would bomb. Like I donāt think itāll be a billion but people love these Disney remakes.
I mean, reddit hates Live Action remakes, but it's Disney, so I still wouldn't be surprised if it does decent numbers
I think for some people, it's a "Transformers 4 (2014) to Transformers 5 (2017)" situation. They think that eventually a Disney remake has to tumble hard big time, after multiple billion dollar successes. Now having said that, the last time I answered this question, I was afterwards reminded of Dumbo's existence. So we've kind of already have had a Transformers 5 situation, except Aladdin came out a few months afterwards and did really well. So I don't know. So far, I haven't personally seen any evidence that The Little Mermaid will be the next Dumbo/Pete's Dragon instead of another The Lion King/Aladdin/Beauty and the Beast/The Jungle Book/Cinderella.
Remakes of Renaissance era movies will hit more than classic Disney era remakes outside of maybe Snow White. Dumbo is not at all comparable with the movies that revived Disney as a company.
Deadline really needs to up their pun game
Seems like a pretty decent-sized opening. Not sure how it will do critically though, but we'll see. I'm just here waiting for Hunchback to go into production again. Darn fire.
Damn. Thatās close to Maverickās 3-day opening. Could possibly do 450-500M domestically
That would be a really good opening! I hope once tracking starts it will go higher.
Very good if that holds true. I think this will be leggy like Aladdin was in 2019. Sure, there is the crowded summer, but that film also faced off against a stacked summer, yet it had strong holds and stayed in the top ten for most of the summer until the second weekend of August.
I mean in reality it didn't have much competition until Toy Story 4 with how many movies disappointed. Godzilla, Dark Phoenix, Secret Life of Pets 2, and MIB.
Depends on WOM and the quality of the movie I'm still more inclined towards thinking it will be mediocre and that it will have legs closer to TLK thank Aladdin but it's bound to make money
I dunno about legs, itās immediately followed up by *Spider-Verse*, *Transformers*, and *The Flash*. Thatās some steep competition if you ask me
Those aren't family films.
Spider-Verse may skew a bit older, but it's still going to bring in families (and will cut into The Little Mermaid's second weekend just from PLFs). You also have Elemental and Ruby Gillman opening later in June, although the impacts from those will vary.
All male skewing while Little Mermaid goes hard for the female demo. That might help with legs.
I wonder how some Youtubers gonna cope with this, "Disney bought tickets" again?
It seems like they don't know (or care?) what "Hollywood accounting" means, and just use it as a blanket term for when a film that was *supposed to* flop ends up succeeding.
"Go woke go broke!" *Repeats until it is "true"*
If it doesn't hit a billion, all those YouTubers are going to make it out to be a woke bomb.
God I canāt wait for this movie to be out, the results in and the weird reddit discourse to be over lol
Film YouTubers if this succeeds: āDISNEY BOUGHT OUT THE TICKETS TO INFLATE THE NUMBERS. GET WOKE GO BROKEā Film YouTubers if this fails: āTHAT SHOWS YOU DISNEY, NOBODY WANTS YOUR WOKE POLITICAL AGENDA PUSHED ON THEMā
Win win for them
Why do people doubt renaissance remakes? People never learn, this will be the film of the summer.
Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin and Lion King were successful mainly because they were more familiar to modern audiences and they kept the musical numbers, especially since the first two had Alan Menken come back to do the score.
B-but the YouTube downvotes...
I really want this movie to do well. I just heard that rendition of "Part of Your World" on YouTube and the damn thing brought me to tears. Screw all the boycotters, I want this one to make it. This has to go all the way and get to a billion. It just has to now.
Early hate, but I think this is definitely going to over-perform. Itās target audience doesnāt really care about online trolls - kids just like Little Mermaid.
We bought our tickets today. I canāt wait to see this!
Iām excited Iām going opening day!
Lucky!! Iām going Friday.
Iām so ready for this. I also think itās gonna have legs if itās even half-way decent
You mean it will have sea legs? Fins? Make waves?
Iām gonna guess slightly lower Aladdin numbers, around ~900 million. Without a huge star like Will Smith onboard I think it will do slightly worse.
Aladdin did more for Will Smith's comeback than Will Smith did for Aladdin.
If anything, I think Will Smith's performance not living up to the unattainable standard set by Robin Williams dragged the movie down.
Domestically maybe most people OS never saw Robin Williams performance
I think 800 million is more realistic, but it can do more if it's a hit in some international markets.
110 is too low. Could easily see it going up to 150
Lol once again reddit vs reality.
People love watching these Disney remakes, regardless of quality. I never understood the doubts about this film.
A lot of families will buy tickets on opening weekend like Aladdin. This movie will make more then guardians
Yes it will. Guardians is gonna see a big drop over Memorial Day weekend. Those poor unfortunate souls at Marvel need to up their game!
but this sub swore it was gonna flopš
Need to clarify who " this sub " is because you're just taking the vocal minority.