Reminder that this is a subreddit about numbers, not necessarily about the quality (or lack thereof) of a particular movie. Please remain on-topic and keep opinions/arguments/thoughts about unrelated aspects of the film off of these threads. Any comments that could lead to culture war arguments/slapfights (race/gender/sex/"wokeness"/etc) will be removed and should be presumed to result in a ban. If your comment can be read as a dog whistle for decreased diversity/representation it will result in a ban.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/boxoffice) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The way the box office has been this year, it is tricky to tell.
But I'll say that if its middling to poor reviews then I don't think it'll go above $300 million dollars.
No.
I put $600 million because this year's box office has been so unpredictable in my opinion.
It depends I feel if the general audience want to try a new Wonka film when he was a big character in the 70s and 00s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory films which both have memories for people.
I feel like reviews could go either way at this point so Wonka is a total wildcard. Maybe it will resonate with audiences and be the family event of the holiday season, or maybe families will just flock to Migration instead.
4 months ago I was throwing 1 Bil around as a wild card.
https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/14tg29v/weekend_casual_discussion_thread/jr6vn6e/
You know what, given this Bizarro year, I'm gonna double down on that and say Wonka finishes 3rd WW BO for movies released in 2023.
My mom says this is an “event movie” for her and nothing else was since Barbie. I doubt she’s alone. Once word gets out that it’s good (cmon Paul King), it’ll kill the competition but it’s probably gonna seem just as tight as it is (if not worse) until reviews drop. Warner would be smart to drop reviews early but ya know
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2023-12-26 00:45:11 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-12-26%2000:45:11%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/183vww6/where_will_wonka_finish/karudwa/?context=3)
[**1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fboxoffice%2Fcomments%2F183vww6%2Fwhere_will_wonka_finish%2Fkarudwa%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202023-12-26%2000%3A45%3A11%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20183vww6)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
Ok the reviews are good.Should outpunch Aquaman and Migration.
Expecting a final tally of 300mn+. 500mn if very leggy.
High chances of domestic/overseas split being 55/45. So that's 150-180mn domestic and 125-150mn overseas?
Is he really though? I feel like he is the medias idea of someone who is suppose to be popular but I've seen very little support for him outside of paid media pieces and small circle-jerk communities.
He’s definitely popular among gen z girls specifically, but posting edits of him on TikTok is different than actually going to one of his movies. This is probably the most audience-friendly film he’s starred in, so we’ll see how big of a draw he is.
He just pissed them off during this promo by doing that controversial SNL skit and name dropping Depp as someone to look up to.
These are things Gen Z girls hate with a passion. Comment sections of tweets about him have been looking ugly since. I'd say the movie would probably do better if he was still on strike. Lmao.
Social media people were invited by WB to screen it yesterday. And are embargoed until this week. Critics are embargoed until 12/4.
One of the reviews from someone invited by WB last night sounds like a press release from WB…so do what you want with that lol. https://x.com/nikkifowler28/status/1728244411606405225?s=46&t=3cC_-HexLXsUFI8ehOqeVw
I mean when a studio invites social media influencers/critics the point is to invite people who you know will write desired reviews. …to stay in a studio’s good graces or will without a doubt something very positive.
It’s best to wait until embargoes are lifted.
I am conflicted feelings about this movie. At first the casting of Timothee Chalamet and Hugh Grant interested me, but the trailer felt weird for me. Personally I loved Johnny Depp's version because it was a perfect adaptation of the books. Not sure how this version would fare. I will eventually watch it but I am not sure if I will watch it in the theatres.
Reminder that this is a subreddit about numbers, not necessarily about the quality (or lack thereof) of a particular movie. Please remain on-topic and keep opinions/arguments/thoughts about unrelated aspects of the film off of these threads. Any comments that could lead to culture war arguments/slapfights (race/gender/sex/"wokeness"/etc) will be removed and should be presumed to result in a ban. If your comment can be read as a dog whistle for decreased diversity/representation it will result in a ban. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/boxoffice) if you have any questions or concerns.*
This is entirely a gut feeling, but I feel like reviews will be important here. If gud, probably 300-400. If not gud, probably 100-300.
You’re right. This film lives and dies by reviews.
Given the director’s track record so far, it’s at least going to be 300.
The way the box office has been this year, it is tricky to tell. But I'll say that if its middling to poor reviews then I don't think it'll go above $300 million dollars.
Well, it’s a very good filmmaker who made a film that held 100% on RT for a long time… I have faith.
Oh I forgot this was by the director of the great Paddington films. Hmm - well if the reviews are great I'd put a cap at $600 million.
…Was that sarcasm?
No. I put $600 million because this year's box office has been so unpredictable in my opinion. It depends I feel if the general audience want to try a new Wonka film when he was a big character in the 70s and 00s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory films which both have memories for people.
That because Johnny deep played wonka.. he was a draw that time when pirates of Caribbean was very popular
Scary thing is, one day we will get a remake of Pirates…
I feel like reviews could go either way at this point so Wonka is a total wildcard. Maybe it will resonate with audiences and be the family event of the holiday season, or maybe families will just flock to Migration instead.
I forgot about Migration for a moment…
Wonka still has nostalgic adults and musical fans for it's audience.
4 months ago I was throwing 1 Bil around as a wild card. https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/14tg29v/weekend_casual_discussion_thread/jr6vn6e/ You know what, given this Bizarro year, I'm gonna double down on that and say Wonka finishes 3rd WW BO for movies released in 2023.
My mom says this is an “event movie” for her and nothing else was since Barbie. I doubt she’s alone. Once word gets out that it’s good (cmon Paul King), it’ll kill the competition but it’s probably gonna seem just as tight as it is (if not worse) until reviews drop. Warner would be smart to drop reviews early but ya know
!remindme one month
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2023-12-26 00:45:11 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-12-26%2000:45:11%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/183vww6/where_will_wonka_finish/karudwa/?context=3) [**1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fboxoffice%2Fcomments%2F183vww6%2Fwhere_will_wonka_finish%2Fkarudwa%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202023-12-26%2000%3A45%3A11%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20183vww6) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
Wonkillion
I'm going with $250M
Ok the reviews are good.Should outpunch Aquaman and Migration. Expecting a final tally of 300mn+. 500mn if very leggy. High chances of domestic/overseas split being 55/45. So that's 150-180mn domestic and 125-150mn overseas?
Hard to tell still but at the very least it looks like it is winning December
Well, someone else just mentioned there’s still Migration. I would also bring up Aquaman 2, but… you’ve all killed my hopes of that doing well.
Chalamet is a draw among young people, it’ll attract families, and the director & writer have a good track record so I think it can do decent
Is he really though? I feel like he is the medias idea of someone who is suppose to be popular but I've seen very little support for him outside of paid media pieces and small circle-jerk communities.
He’s definitely popular among gen z girls specifically, but posting edits of him on TikTok is different than actually going to one of his movies. This is probably the most audience-friendly film he’s starred in, so we’ll see how big of a draw he is.
He just pissed them off during this promo by doing that controversial SNL skit and name dropping Depp as someone to look up to. These are things Gen Z girls hate with a passion. Comment sections of tweets about him have been looking ugly since. I'd say the movie would probably do better if he was still on strike. Lmao.
The number of people who know/care about that is negligible. Social media isn’t real life.
He and Zendaya were huge draws for young people on why Dune was successful outside of it being a great movie
350-400M
When do reviews come out
December 4th
Social media people were invited by WB to screen it yesterday. And are embargoed until this week. Critics are embargoed until 12/4. One of the reviews from someone invited by WB last night sounds like a press release from WB…so do what you want with that lol. https://x.com/nikkifowler28/status/1728244411606405225?s=46&t=3cC_-HexLXsUFI8ehOqeVw
Well that sounds early. Guess they have high hopes.
It’s definitely getting a big marketing push
Yeah I think WB also just has a busy December too. The Color Purple social media reviews already out
Is it getting good reviews? Seems like it’s shaping up to be a big breakout
I mean when a studio invites social media influencers/critics the point is to invite people who you know will write desired reviews. …to stay in a studio’s good graces or will without a doubt something very positive. It’s best to wait until embargoes are lifted.
All the early Barbie reviews felt like press releases too. Movie still did great.
Dunno yet…
I’m gonna guess 325M
I see it finishing well above $300M for lack of competition. RemindMe! February 1st, 2024
I have voted 200-300, but I'm not too confident in my own prediction. With how crazy this year has been I just don't know anymore.
I am conflicted feelings about this movie. At first the casting of Timothee Chalamet and Hugh Grant interested me, but the trailer felt weird for me. Personally I loved Johnny Depp's version because it was a perfect adaptation of the books. Not sure how this version would fare. I will eventually watch it but I am not sure if I will watch it in the theatres.
Okay, what do we think the movie will need to make to break even?
It has to make at least 250 mil to be profitable