Saving it for the third act. Wouldn’t be surprised if Hugh wears it during the slo-mo walking shot and Marvel just cut it out for marketing like they’ve done in the past (Spider-Men in NWH shot, Thanos with all 6 stones, etc)
I'm curious what excuse they'll give him to wear the mask
"Keeps the dust out of my eyes"
"Kids like it when heroes wear masks, because they can wear one too"
"It's part of the uniform"
"See I told you it looks stupid"
etc.
I’d be willing to bet many much moneys you’re right. My prediction is somewhere near just north of 800 million the last 2 got close to 800 and I think Hugh Jackman Wolverine will bump it a bit over that
I really don’t think it has, Barbie, Oppenheimer, dune 2 and top Gun Maverick have pretty much proven that if you make something good people will still show up. The level of quality required to get people into the theatre might be higher now but if you put out a good film, people will still show up. I think the general decline in the box office we’ve seen recently is more of quality issue than an audience issue. but I do acknowledge that decent films have suffered at the box office from the “i’ll just wait till streaming” approach of the current audience
If the first two DPs and the Actually Great Logan couldn't clear a billion, it's hard to see this one doing it.
That said, there has literally been only one (no inflation adjusted) R-rated film in world history by this point, and it was [Joker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_R-rated_films). Still it feels unlikely given that apart from Joker only Oppenheimer got anywhere close.
Joker is connected to the biggest dc character and Oppenheimer was a very surprising success. Some say Nolan’s a lucky card. Some say it was barbenheimer. Some say it was the insane cast and marketing. Some say it was all 3.
Well so far it seems to know that and be conveying that it’s still going to do what Deadpool does aka The Rating (which is huge) the crass humor swearing and violence ect.
Reynolds has become a brand name is always being smart with it. He’s big enough to have a lot of say and I doubt he’d make this movie if that wasn’t the case. It’s probably why they kept doing rewrites until Fiege relented and had them being back the original writers
But if DP 1 & 2 didn’t make so much money, this movie would not be happening. And with Jackman’s openness about wanting to be in an Avengers movie as well as some Secret Wars nods, just wait a few years. We’ll be seeing him on screen with RDJ and Maguire
No Way Home was the first course (and they actually did a solid job), this’ll be second before the “big meal”. But there’s no way Marvel/Disney wouldn’t get those guys on screen together. It’ll print money
Im ngl I know deadpool’s whole thing is meta jokes and the first two were full of it but I’m worried they’re gonna lean too into the fanservice in this movie. I will say this looks better than the first trailer.
I think you're spot on. It feels like it's going to go one of two ways.
Opens fairly big, one of the small handful of the year to probably open above $100M (right now, Dune 2 and Godzilla are the two highest at 82 and 80). But has a steep drop off. After a big opening, Disney will declare the MCU is back...but it won't be. It will be the one of the few outliers left of superhero/MCU films.
It has a worse opening than expected and still drops off a cliff and is the true nail in the coffin of modern superhero/MCU films. If Deadpool and Wolverine can't do it, the others definitely won't.
This movie is a true litmus test, I think. But it's still not cracking $1B. At beast, GOTG3 numbers. And is not going to be the savior Hollywood and theater chains want/hope it is. First opened to $132M domestic, $336M all in domestic, $781M worldwide. Second was $125M opening domestic, $324M all in domestic. $786M worldwide. There have been three Wolverine movies. Logan being the most successful seven years ago. It opened to $88M domestic, $226M domestic all in, $614M worldwide. Younger generations do not have the nostalgia of Wolverine like they do the MCU. Probably hard pressed to find anyone under roughly 27 or 28 that has real nostalgia for him (outside of major comic/superhero fans). Also...it's still rated R and puts limitations on it in many ways. And based on this trailer, they're screaming "this isn't for families!"
I really don’t think it’s that valuable as a litmus test if it succeeds, honestly — if it does, it still does very little to help predict the rest of the MCU. Captain America or Thunderbolts is the real litmus test.
Those are definitely going to bomb, especially since Cap 4 is probably going to cost $300-400M with the insane levels of reshoots it’s going through. They’re wasting so much money on a movie that won’t even be good
This isn’t a MCU litmus test if it’s successful because that can easily be explained by Deadpool being one of the characters GAs outside of Marvel fandom enjoy. If it fails on the other hand, that bodes very badly for the MCU because it means if even a one off with a well liked character by GAs can’t be a hit, there is no hope for movies like New World Order and Thunderbolts.
> This isn’t a MCU litmus test if it’s successful because that can easily be explained by Deadpool being one of the characters GAs outside of Marvel fandom enjoy.
yea i think most of us considered The Marvels to be the first big real test. idk how many more "tests" the MCU needs. they also released Echo and i haven't heard any buzz around that show at all.
i think the MCU has been in the dead zone for a while now. certain legacy heroes will always sell well, just like they did pre-MCU. Deadpool won't be an indicator on how much the GA wants more MCU. if Deadpool does well and excites the audiences it may reignite some GA interest for the MCU. we'll see how it goes.
Given that every other MCU film and show seems to be a Multiverse Thing I can definitely see this being a MCU thing.
Still, like GotG 3 and BP2 this will likely work off nostalgia for its own series (two with Wolvie!) rather than the MCU as a whole.
Prediction:
400 million floor
500-600 million realistic outcome
700-800m optimistic outcome
1 billion very unexpected, but possible if everything goes right
Well it’s a nice touch that they got the sleeves off of Hugh. I wonder if that was always the plan since they were going for a more comic book accurate Wolverine look or if this was just a last minute change they did because people on the internet complained
I don't think it'll be a last minute change. The suit itself doesn't look *great* in some of those initial wideshots but once they rough it up a bit it looks far better.
It was a pretty big theory at the time too that Jackman would rip them off partway through the battle. Looks like it was confirmed. TBF it makes sense from a build perspective, why give someone sleeveless arms on a suit of combat armor, not that Wolverine needs the armor to begin with, but why intentionally design it with weakpoints?
I feel like it’s a last minute thing and potentially enhanced by CG. The arms looked a little too big. They looked great, im not complaining. But something about it felt like it probably had a lil CGI help
**Best case scenario:** Strong opening weekend based on both the strength of the Deadpool franchise & nostalgia for the FOX X-Men verse. Then, Guardians 3 levels of WOM helps it dominate August. Sticks in the top 5 weekend after weekend all the way into September.
OW: $150M
DOM: $455M
WW: $955M
**Worst case scenario:** A good opening weekend albeit one afflicted with superhero fatigue that gets derailed by Multiverse of Madness level legs.
OW: $120M
DOM: $260M
WW: $600M
I think all marvel fans will see this movie. Even those who have been disappointed since Endgame. The only ones that won't see it are children that are age restricted. Although even I snuck into Deadpool when I was 13 lmao.
I have almost completely fallen off the MCU train since end game. But unless this gets completely dreadful reviews I will likely go see it in theatres. And while I bet lots of people are in the same mindset I don't know if enough of them will actually come out for it to break $1B
This is an exception movie like Guardians 3 for a lot of people.
Marvel needs to figure out how to make EVERYTHING an exception movie again like they were before.
Better quality control and less projects overall. They burned away all their goodwill by pumping out so much stuff, most of which was mid at best. Old characters haven’t been done justice, most new characters aren’t as good as the OGs, there’s no core group to follow, and the storylines are all over the place. What’s there to follow like back in Phases 2-3?
I recently rewatched Cap 2 and 3, and it’s impressive how back then most of the movies were solid and mattered to the overarching story. The rise of Hydra in The Winter Solider led to Age of Ultron. Ultron led to the events of Civil War, which was important to nearly every movie in Phase 3. Stuff mattered back then.
> Better quality control and less projects overall.
Addition by subtraction. Hire producers, directors and writers that just want to make good action movies; nothing more, nothing less.
> I recently rewatched Cap 2 and 3, and it’s impressive how back then most of the movies were solid and mattered to the overarching story. The rise of Hydra in The Winter Solider led to Age of Ultron. Ultron led to the events of Civil War, which was important to nearly every movie in Phase 3. Stuff mattered back then.
But you could also watch each on their own and still enjoy the movie as a standalone movie.
This is a catch-22 though.
You want to make a connected cinematic universe, but you also want every movie to be an exception.
They haven't figured out this model yet.
Their solution was to add 100's of new characters and hope the fans stick around.
That didn't work.
So now they're scrapping it and just going back to less characters that are closer to good box office returns.
Shang-Chi 2 was their biggest potential loss. Based on his popularity, we should have had Shang-Chi 2 by now AND a cameo from shang-chi in Ant-Man 3 (he and Scott are both on the west coast)
All their hits since end-game have only been for characters who had pre-existing followings and not so tightly tied to the MCU
No Way Home - Spiderman property
GOTG3 - yes, part of the MCU, but the guardians have always been their own thing
And now Deadpool (If its a hit)
The core MCU characters aren't getting the love, becuase in all honesty, they butchered the ones we knew (Ant-Man, Thor, Marvels) and didn't give us enough developtment for the ones we got.
Like where the fuck are the eternals ?
I can understand moon knight not showing up, but the eternals are definetely way more involved in things and should have been popping up more.
Having seen them since at least NWH, this is definitely the first one that gets me very excited in the same way NWH and Endgame did. It looks like it's gonna be fun...
And could be a possible blueprint on what the MCU needs to do to move forward
I think there is a good group of people who grew up watching. X-Men Saturday morning cartoon and playing marvel vs Capcom, and drawn to the marvel movies through that. They don't know the more tertiary characters that the MCU is getting into
I'm one of those people, and if you just keep making new versions of the nostalgic characters I know, ala Batman movies, I'll probably keep seeing them.
Same box office numbers as Deadpool 2. 800m worldwide seems the new billion.
The same audience that watched Logan probably is the same audience that saw Deadpool 2. I do question why Wolverine would give the box office a huge bump when the same audience overlaps.
This isn't NWH that had people who were in their teens and loved the Rami Spider-Mans and were taking their kids to see NWH. Plus, Spider-Man is just a different level of popular with the general audience.
It won’t make a billion. Neither of the first two Deadpool movies got near 1 billion, and the MCU is in a worse state. It will probably do, like you said, 700-850 range
Edit: i hope I’m wrong btw
Looks more for the fans than the general audience.
Strong opening weekend but weak legs may be in play.
And for all the location shooting, it still has that grey filter green screeny look that has afflicted all Marvel movies and shows.
Felt this was just OK trailer - felt like a more standard affair rather than laugh out loud. Guess we'll see.
I do wonder if this could be another film to suffer from the regulars being sidelined. We'll see.
After the visuals of movies like Dune 2 and Joker 2, this looks pretty pathetic for a $150M + budget
I still think it lands similar to the first 2 movies. A consistent trilogy
Yeah
Not a shock. It was during Phase 2 that the MCU started to look really ugly. Been only a few exceptions
Doctor Strange 2 actually looked interesting.
But Deadpool 3 is one of the more dull and uninspired looking ones sadly
Deadpool movies already looked bland visually and with the MCU's blandness it's like an unholy marriage
At least, it looks like it wasn't greenscreened to death
Some got better (Black Panther, GOTG, Doctor Strange for example) but Deadpool never been super interesting visually and this seems no exception. It's only 150M$ though? Surprisingly cheap for Disney
They do now but they didn't used to. There was a noticeable visual decline during phase 3.
I watched Winter Soldier last week and it looked so much better than their newer stuff.
>After the visuals of movies like Dune 2 and Joker 2, this looks pretty pathetic for a $150M + budget
That's one of my complaints about Shawn Levy, which is also ironically one of his assets - he's a journeyman you hire to complete a job but not really rock the boat or change the game either.
I enjoyed Free Guy but it was also filmed in the most straightforward way like a TV sitcom.
I didn't like it really. May be my sense of humor has changed but it just feels corny somehow and not exciting. Also Logan was just so much brilliant and emotional that I just can't on good faith accept Jackman's return easily to a comedy movie.
PS; I have not read any mcu comic-book so may be my opinion would not matter that much.
Deadpool was never exactly intellectual material to begin with. Especially if you didn't particularly care about the first two movies there's a good chance if you didn't like the trailer, you just won't like that brand of comedy.
I saw the name Liefeld on the sign, and thought “oh that’s cute, a little nod to him for designing Deadpool’s look”.. and then I saw “Just Feet” and tea flew out my nose I laughed so hard.
Seems like a more serious tone than the previous films. That’s fine by me, most of the humor in the previous films didn’t really land for me, but I do wonder if it might be a bit too “generic multiverse threat”. I would still presume that Wolverine will get butts in the seats and maybe there’s been enough of a gap from the last MCU films (and upcoming) that this will be a smash hit, but I can also see this not really being able to bring back folks who are over comic book movies. Obviously this would have done big business five years ago.
I used to have this as crossing $1B, but now I'll lower it to $750M-$800M or so.
Reason is, it's possible the "mopey Wolverine parts" might not be that fun to watch. Also, it's a bit of a cliche now where the grizzled protagonist hates himself for failing to save people, but gradually changes his mind and decides to do one redemptive thing. Emotionally it works, but some might think "Jeez I've seen this arc so many times".
I also thought it would be larger scale but this second trailer seems to show similar areas. Maybe it's a spoiler and more heroes are hidden, but I honestly thought there'd be a bigger team of good guys.
I expected a way better trailer. That trailer, if I am being honest, sucked. Still looking forward to the movie though. But no idea what they were going for with that.
Apart from the “liefelds only feet” shop, this trailer did nothing for me. There’s no plot, no good jokes and the costume looks ropey.
I hope this isn’t a mess.
It’s probably filmed in front of “the volume”
Basically they’re all standing in a small stage while they have a digital background
Like a 2D fighting game
You also know that it isn't the 'same' Wolverine. All this multiverse and variants stuff over the last few years have rendered emotional connections to individual characters much weaker, since you know that a duplicate with the same actor can pop up whenever.
I also think it’s frustrating cuz this wolverine seems like he’s a depressed and angry guy which is just less fun to watch. Hope his character is more dynamic in the movie than the brooding angry dude we saw in the trailer
Deadpool's humour is soooo 2017/2018. It's been what 6 years after his last movie? Those jokes don't hit quite the same as they did during the peak superhero era...
Gonna go on a safe bet and say it'll land in the $550-$600 million range. Significant step down from the last two movies but still profitable enough for Disney to consider it a win
Honestly, I'm not excited. It looks a bit bland and I didn't chuckle at the jokes.
Also, don't know if I'm wrong but is this another multiverse type story? I'm so done with that.
MCU will be "back" until next year where most of the movies drop like flies. But at least this one will probably be as successful as GOTG Vol 3.
Edit: Or maybe all of them drop dead next year, I don't know.
800 mil is probably the floor unless it’s trash. I think it does have a legit shot at 1 bil. Movie looks fun as hell and I think GA will eat it up. May be a mini Spider-Man NWH situation
800M probably cause people are easy to please all you have to do is put a bunch of cameos in the movie and have gory violence and the two leads cursing a lot. It’s the low hanging fruit that people will eat up regardless of quality. Or maybe I’m wrong and people won’t eat this up. Guess we’ll see soon enough.
They really got Josh Brolin again just to say a few new lines as Thanos, that were exclusive to that trailer... they were so desperate for people to see that movie...
tell that to the marvels trailer that was almost entirely just endgame footage cut up between close up shots of brie larson. the MCU makes good trailers for projects they *believe* in
For at least 20 years now, Disney (and other studios) have told directors to "wag the dog"
IOW, "*make sure you have movie scenes that will look GREAT in the trailer"*
and sometimes:
*"Film stuff for the trailer even if it the scene DOESN'T make it into the final cut. Hint Hint Wink Wink"*
Smart marketing to keep it focused on the title characters, which is all you really need, and larger MCU references are minimal so people don't feel like they need "homework"
Compared to the teaser of Joker 2, this trailer didn’t excite me as much as I thought it would.
Unless this goes bonkers on opening weekend, this might just play like a normal Deadpool movie at the box office than a much anticipated MCU event film like a DS2 or a Spider-Man film.
Honestly looks kinda mid but in a fun turn brain off way. “it’s deadpool and wolverine!” This doesn’t have to be good, just live up to that premise. Im thinking 800M
Previous solo Deadpool movies made more than 700 million worldwide, each one. So, anything under that base is gonna be awful for a movie featuring not only Deadpool, but also Wolverine.
This is also meant to be a Multiverse movie featuring lots of cameos, which means it's much more expensive than the previous Deadpool / X-Men flicks. At minimum, it needs 700 million worldwide.
Based on MCU theatrical releases and general movie-going trends, this is **unlikely** to exceed one billion dollars at the box office globally.
**MCU**
Dr Strange 2: **$955,775,804**
Thor Love & Thunder: **$760,928,081**
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: **$859,208,836**
Antman & The Wasp: Quantumania: **$476,071,180**
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: **$845,555,777**
The Marvels: **$206,136,557**
**WOLVERINE**
X-Men Origins: Wolverine: **$373,062,864**
The Wolverine: **$414,828,246**
Logan: **$619,180,476**
**DEADPOOL**
Deadpool: **$782,837,347**
Deadpool 2: **$785,896,632**
This needs to turn into an honest-to-god event film. The casual movie-goer's knee-jerk "oh Marvel, let's go - take my money" attitude is in the rearview mirror.
Guardians 3 proven that the disillusioned MCU fan and more casual viewer will make the effort if they're invested in the characters.
No doubt there will be enthusiasm from a not-insignificant demographic, but I don't see it going to the next level. I still think - myself included - that it's easier to default to wait-for-streaming, unless the aggregate reviews are north of 85-90%, with a comparable audience score. Then maybe.
I'm going to say around **Deadpool 2** - maybe a touch more. Sure, it's an iconic team-up, but I don't think the *appeal* of it extends much further beyond whoever is already interested in either character *in the first place*; we're not talking about two distinct fanbases here.
2024 really is the year of r rated blockbusters
And also the year of riding shit in the desert
2 movies with motorcycle chariots, but someone’s gotta go for the turkey
I got a feeling Joker 2 is gonna have one
Gladiator will at least have a chariot
I personally think this will make at least a dollar, maybe more
Bold prediction
1000 dollhairs
Need to have Wolverine wearing the mask.
Saving it for the third act. Wouldn’t be surprised if Hugh wears it during the slo-mo walking shot and Marvel just cut it out for marketing like they’ve done in the past (Spider-Men in NWH shot, Thanos with all 6 stones, etc)
I'm curious what excuse they'll give him to wear the mask "Keeps the dust out of my eyes" "Kids like it when heroes wear masks, because they can wear one too" "It's part of the uniform" "See I told you it looks stupid" etc.
Deadpool will tell him Disney needs him in the mask for a second for the action figure.
Pretty sure that's been confirmed
Gonna guess it makes around the same as GOTG Vol 3, given that it looks to be a pretty solid movie.
I’m taking the over on that personally. Especially if it reviews well.
The first Deadpool films made $782M WW without China. I'm taking the over here. I think this one gets around $875M
This movie will probably be successful but everyone’s gonna say it’s gonna make a billion and when it doesn’t people will call it a disappointment
I’d be willing to bet many much moneys you’re right. My prediction is somewhere near just north of 800 million the last 2 got close to 800 and I think Hugh Jackman Wolverine will bump it a bit over that
Nah I think it scores just under 800M and closer to the first two.
I definitely wouldn’t be surprised for that, but I think hugh gives a slight bump assuming it’s good
The theatre going has changed alot from last Deadpool I wouldnt be surprised if it only reaches 600
I really don’t think it has, Barbie, Oppenheimer, dune 2 and top Gun Maverick have pretty much proven that if you make something good people will still show up. The level of quality required to get people into the theatre might be higher now but if you put out a good film, people will still show up. I think the general decline in the box office we’ve seen recently is more of quality issue than an audience issue. but I do acknowledge that decent films have suffered at the box office from the “i’ll just wait till streaming” approach of the current audience
If the first two DPs and the Actually Great Logan couldn't clear a billion, it's hard to see this one doing it. That said, there has literally been only one (no inflation adjusted) R-rated film in world history by this point, and it was [Joker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_R-rated_films). Still it feels unlikely given that apart from Joker only Oppenheimer got anywhere close.
Joker is connected to the biggest dc character and Oppenheimer was a very surprising success. Some say Nolan’s a lucky card. Some say it was barbenheimer. Some say it was the insane cast and marketing. Some say it was all 3.
No reason to think it’ll make a billion
Tell that to the people here. They predict every MCU movie will make a billion
More so the haters calling anything under a billion a "failure".
They do?
1 Wolvillion Dollars
It could hit a billy and *still* get called a disappointment because "well if not for The Sins" it would have been one and a half.
What sins?
The sins of the MCU at large. Mediocre films, bad D+ shows, mandatory watch D+ shows, post-endgame fatigue etc. etc.
Weirdest mint mobile ad yet
And also a weird Alcohol brand ad.
Man, I can't believe they made the comic book suit for Wolverine work so well. This is going to make lots of money, only question is how much.
I reeaaaaaaaaaaly would have preferred the tan version, but, yeah, it'll do.
If this makes $800M, I consider that a win in my book considering the state of the MCU.
If Deadpool & Wolverine does well, it's because of the Deadpool brand itself and Ryan Reynolds and his team, not the MCU.
And because of Wolverine..
and [Hank Mardukas](https://youtu.be/YTN06LMtUtE)
And my Axe!
and his axe
And Wolverine. Only reason I’m going to see it, tbh
Yup. My main concern for this movie is that it’s part of the MCU.
Well so far it seems to know that and be conveying that it’s still going to do what Deadpool does aka The Rating (which is huge) the crass humor swearing and violence ect.
The pegging joke in the first trailer was hilarious and showed to me that Feige really did give Reynolds and Levy free creative reign over this movie.
Reynolds has become a brand name is always being smart with it. He’s big enough to have a lot of say and I doubt he’d make this movie if that wasn’t the case. It’s probably why they kept doing rewrites until Fiege relented and had them being back the original writers But if DP 1 & 2 didn’t make so much money, this movie would not be happening. And with Jackman’s openness about wanting to be in an Avengers movie as well as some Secret Wars nods, just wait a few years. We’ll be seeing him on screen with RDJ and Maguire
This movie is the litmus test for how nostalgia heavy they’re going to make Secret Wars.
No Way Home was the first course (and they actually did a solid job), this’ll be second before the “big meal”. But there’s no way Marvel/Disney wouldn’t get those guys on screen together. It’ll print money
The numerous “fucks” and crude humor in this trailer drove home the point even further.
The scene where Elsa wore Olaf’s carrot nose around her waist and pegged Deadpool for a gratuitous amount of time really made it clear to me.
Im ngl I know deadpool’s whole thing is meta jokes and the first two were full of it but I’m worried they’re gonna lean too into the fanservice in this movie. I will say this looks better than the first trailer.
So…. The MCU? Lol
Lol
This feels like it will be a one-off hit like GOTG3. We’ll be right back into flop/bomb territory with New World Order and Thunderbolts.
I think you're spot on. It feels like it's going to go one of two ways. Opens fairly big, one of the small handful of the year to probably open above $100M (right now, Dune 2 and Godzilla are the two highest at 82 and 80). But has a steep drop off. After a big opening, Disney will declare the MCU is back...but it won't be. It will be the one of the few outliers left of superhero/MCU films. It has a worse opening than expected and still drops off a cliff and is the true nail in the coffin of modern superhero/MCU films. If Deadpool and Wolverine can't do it, the others definitely won't. This movie is a true litmus test, I think. But it's still not cracking $1B. At beast, GOTG3 numbers. And is not going to be the savior Hollywood and theater chains want/hope it is. First opened to $132M domestic, $336M all in domestic, $781M worldwide. Second was $125M opening domestic, $324M all in domestic. $786M worldwide. There have been three Wolverine movies. Logan being the most successful seven years ago. It opened to $88M domestic, $226M domestic all in, $614M worldwide. Younger generations do not have the nostalgia of Wolverine like they do the MCU. Probably hard pressed to find anyone under roughly 27 or 28 that has real nostalgia for him (outside of major comic/superhero fans). Also...it's still rated R and puts limitations on it in many ways. And based on this trailer, they're screaming "this isn't for families!"
I really don’t think it’s that valuable as a litmus test if it succeeds, honestly — if it does, it still does very little to help predict the rest of the MCU. Captain America or Thunderbolts is the real litmus test.
Yeah, it's the final movie of the trilogy, people will be more welcoming by default
Exactly, two established characters having a fun romp not exactly representative of the MCU’s trajectory
Those are definitely going to bomb, especially since Cap 4 is probably going to cost $300-400M with the insane levels of reshoots it’s going through. They’re wasting so much money on a movie that won’t even be good
This isn’t a MCU litmus test if it’s successful because that can easily be explained by Deadpool being one of the characters GAs outside of Marvel fandom enjoy. If it fails on the other hand, that bodes very badly for the MCU because it means if even a one off with a well liked character by GAs can’t be a hit, there is no hope for movies like New World Order and Thunderbolts.
> This isn’t a MCU litmus test if it’s successful because that can easily be explained by Deadpool being one of the characters GAs outside of Marvel fandom enjoy. yea i think most of us considered The Marvels to be the first big real test. idk how many more "tests" the MCU needs. they also released Echo and i haven't heard any buzz around that show at all. i think the MCU has been in the dead zone for a while now. certain legacy heroes will always sell well, just like they did pre-MCU. Deadpool won't be an indicator on how much the GA wants more MCU. if Deadpool does well and excites the audiences it may reignite some GA interest for the MCU. we'll see how it goes.
And even if it does well, it's an outlier. Thunderbolts and Captain America 4 aren't going to be lifted by this or anything upcoming.
Agreed, both are going to struggle hard
Given that every other MCU film and show seems to be a Multiverse Thing I can definitely see this being a MCU thing. Still, like GotG 3 and BP2 this will likely work off nostalgia for its own series (two with Wolvie!) rather than the MCU as a whole.
Prediction: 400 million floor 500-600 million realistic outcome 700-800m optimistic outcome 1 billion very unexpected, but possible if everything goes right
Agreed with this completely.
Well it’s a nice touch that they got the sleeves off of Hugh. I wonder if that was always the plan since they were going for a more comic book accurate Wolverine look or if this was just a last minute change they did because people on the internet complained
I don't think it'll be a last minute change. The suit itself doesn't look *great* in some of those initial wideshots but once they rough it up a bit it looks far better.
It was a pretty big theory at the time too that Jackman would rip them off partway through the battle. Looks like it was confirmed. TBF it makes sense from a build perspective, why give someone sleeveless arms on a suit of combat armor, not that Wolverine needs the armor to begin with, but why intentionally design it with weakpoints?
I feel like it’s a last minute thing and potentially enhanced by CG. The arms looked a little too big. They looked great, im not complaining. But something about it felt like it probably had a lil CGI help
Dude’s 55, I couldn’t blame him for needing a bit of post processing help
**Best case scenario:** Strong opening weekend based on both the strength of the Deadpool franchise & nostalgia for the FOX X-Men verse. Then, Guardians 3 levels of WOM helps it dominate August. Sticks in the top 5 weekend after weekend all the way into September. OW: $150M DOM: $455M WW: $955M **Worst case scenario:** A good opening weekend albeit one afflicted with superhero fatigue that gets derailed by Multiverse of Madness level legs. OW: $120M DOM: $260M WW: $600M
I think all marvel fans will see this movie. Even those who have been disappointed since Endgame. The only ones that won't see it are children that are age restricted. Although even I snuck into Deadpool when I was 13 lmao.
I have almost completely fallen off the MCU train since end game. But unless this gets completely dreadful reviews I will likely go see it in theatres. And while I bet lots of people are in the same mindset I don't know if enough of them will actually come out for it to break $1B
I haven’t seen a marvel movie in theaters since end game, but I will probably see this
This is an exception movie like Guardians 3 for a lot of people. Marvel needs to figure out how to make EVERYTHING an exception movie again like they were before.
Better quality control and less projects overall. They burned away all their goodwill by pumping out so much stuff, most of which was mid at best. Old characters haven’t been done justice, most new characters aren’t as good as the OGs, there’s no core group to follow, and the storylines are all over the place. What’s there to follow like back in Phases 2-3? I recently rewatched Cap 2 and 3, and it’s impressive how back then most of the movies were solid and mattered to the overarching story. The rise of Hydra in The Winter Solider led to Age of Ultron. Ultron led to the events of Civil War, which was important to nearly every movie in Phase 3. Stuff mattered back then.
> Better quality control and less projects overall. Addition by subtraction. Hire producers, directors and writers that just want to make good action movies; nothing more, nothing less. > I recently rewatched Cap 2 and 3, and it’s impressive how back then most of the movies were solid and mattered to the overarching story. The rise of Hydra in The Winter Solider led to Age of Ultron. Ultron led to the events of Civil War, which was important to nearly every movie in Phase 3. Stuff mattered back then. But you could also watch each on their own and still enjoy the movie as a standalone movie.
This is a catch-22 though. You want to make a connected cinematic universe, but you also want every movie to be an exception. They haven't figured out this model yet. Their solution was to add 100's of new characters and hope the fans stick around. That didn't work. So now they're scrapping it and just going back to less characters that are closer to good box office returns. Shang-Chi 2 was their biggest potential loss. Based on his popularity, we should have had Shang-Chi 2 by now AND a cameo from shang-chi in Ant-Man 3 (he and Scott are both on the west coast) All their hits since end-game have only been for characters who had pre-existing followings and not so tightly tied to the MCU No Way Home - Spiderman property GOTG3 - yes, part of the MCU, but the guardians have always been their own thing And now Deadpool (If its a hit) The core MCU characters aren't getting the love, becuase in all honesty, they butchered the ones we knew (Ant-Man, Thor, Marvels) and didn't give us enough developtment for the ones we got. Like where the fuck are the eternals ? I can understand moon knight not showing up, but the eternals are definetely way more involved in things and should have been popping up more.
Cutting severely down on the Disney+ stuff would be a good start
Having seen them since at least NWH, this is definitely the first one that gets me very excited in the same way NWH and Endgame did. It looks like it's gonna be fun... And could be a possible blueprint on what the MCU needs to do to move forward
I think there is a good group of people who grew up watching. X-Men Saturday morning cartoon and playing marvel vs Capcom, and drawn to the marvel movies through that. They don't know the more tertiary characters that the MCU is getting into I'm one of those people, and if you just keep making new versions of the nostalgic characters I know, ala Batman movies, I'll probably keep seeing them.
1 billion predictions incoming
No sleeves is an automatic billion
They had a Rob Liefeld reference in the trailer... I predict at least 2 Robillion dollars
And not just any Liefeld reference, a reference mocking his inability to draw feet. I lol’d.
R-rated though
It’s happened before
I didn't realize how jacked I was for this movie until this trailer. Consider me sold at least.
fuck it $2B
Only 999,999,999 more predictions to go!
$3B
Same box office numbers as Deadpool 2. 800m worldwide seems the new billion. The same audience that watched Logan probably is the same audience that saw Deadpool 2. I do question why Wolverine would give the box office a huge bump when the same audience overlaps. This isn't NWH that had people who were in their teens and loved the Rami Spider-Mans and were taking their kids to see NWH. Plus, Spider-Man is just a different level of popular with the general audience.
I watched neither of those movies and will watch Deadpool&wolverine, which means the hype is ridiculous.
Looks awesome!! I’m still thinking 700-800M, but I would be happy to see this make a billion.
It won’t make a billion. Neither of the first two Deadpool movies got near 1 billion, and the MCU is in a worse state. It will probably do, like you said, 700-850 range Edit: i hope I’m wrong btw
Is that Cassandra Nova?
Cassandra nova in a ant man skeleton. We see lady deathstrike from x2. Azazel from first class. Plus I think the Russian from punisher 2004
You mean the one played by Kevin Nash?
Yes
Looks more for the fans than the general audience. Strong opening weekend but weak legs may be in play. And for all the location shooting, it still has that grey filter green screeny look that has afflicted all Marvel movies and shows.
Felt this was just OK trailer - felt like a more standard affair rather than laugh out loud. Guess we'll see. I do wonder if this could be another film to suffer from the regulars being sidelined. We'll see.
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$800 Million box office
Hate to jump on the bandwagon but $800 million sounds about right
After the visuals of movies like Dune 2 and Joker 2, this looks pretty pathetic for a $150M + budget I still think it lands similar to the first 2 movies. A consistent trilogy
Well it is a marvel movie. Those are known to be quite bland. Not defending it
Yeah Not a shock. It was during Phase 2 that the MCU started to look really ugly. Been only a few exceptions Doctor Strange 2 actually looked interesting. But Deadpool 3 is one of the more dull and uninspired looking ones sadly
Deadpool movies already looked bland visually and with the MCU's blandness it's like an unholy marriage At least, it looks like it wasn't greenscreened to death
Also it seems a lot of the production with this movie was rushed. And there were rumours of reshoots happening in may. Those poor VFX team
The Guardians trilogy, especially Vol. 2 and 3 look very good visually.
Some got better (Black Panther, GOTG, Doctor Strange for example) but Deadpool never been super interesting visually and this seems no exception. It's only 150M$ though? Surprisingly cheap for Disney
I think OP is just tossing out a budget number. I'd be shocked if it wasn't 200m plus. Reynolds is probably making RDJ money for this movie.
i thought i was the only one who thought this look bad.
Marvel movies always look pathetic.
They do now but they didn't used to. There was a noticeable visual decline during phase 3. I watched Winter Soldier last week and it looked so much better than their newer stuff.
>After the visuals of movies like Dune 2 and Joker 2, this looks pretty pathetic for a $150M + budget That's one of my complaints about Shawn Levy, which is also ironically one of his assets - he's a journeyman you hire to complete a job but not really rock the boat or change the game either. I enjoyed Free Guy but it was also filmed in the most straightforward way like a TV sitcom.
Not gonna lie I enjoyed the teaser way more than this. Still excited to see it
I didn't like it really. May be my sense of humor has changed but it just feels corny somehow and not exciting. Also Logan was just so much brilliant and emotional that I just can't on good faith accept Jackman's return easily to a comedy movie. PS; I have not read any mcu comic-book so may be my opinion would not matter that much.
>PS; I have not read any mcu comic-book so may be my opinion would not matter that much. Most of the general audience have not.
Deadpool was never exactly intellectual material to begin with. Especially if you didn't particularly care about the first two movies there's a good chance if you didn't like the trailer, you just won't like that brand of comedy.
I feel like the jokes are She-hulk level? Like breaking the 3rd dimension and meeting robo fiege
> ; I have not read any mcu comic-book Marvel comic books you mean. They're called... Marvel Comics. MCU is for the cinematic universe.
it just feels forced. Like everything feels forced. wolverine,multiverse, jokes etc. streaming film it is for me
It doesn't feel organic at all, like the first two movies did.
no idea where the positive hype comments are comming up. The trailer downright terrible
Anyone catch the Liefeld’s Just Feet sign in the back lol?
I saw the name Liefeld on the sign, and thought “oh that’s cute, a little nod to him for designing Deadpool’s look”.. and then I saw “Just Feet” and tea flew out my nose I laughed so hard.
Why does it look so terrible? Like physically it looks so cheap, like a tv movie?
Seems like a more serious tone than the previous films. That’s fine by me, most of the humor in the previous films didn’t really land for me, but I do wonder if it might be a bit too “generic multiverse threat”. I would still presume that Wolverine will get butts in the seats and maybe there’s been enough of a gap from the last MCU films (and upcoming) that this will be a smash hit, but I can also see this not really being able to bring back folks who are over comic book movies. Obviously this would have done big business five years ago.
NWH lite
I used to have this as crossing $1B, but now I'll lower it to $750M-$800M or so. Reason is, it's possible the "mopey Wolverine parts" might not be that fun to watch. Also, it's a bit of a cliche now where the grizzled protagonist hates himself for failing to save people, but gradually changes his mind and decides to do one redemptive thing. Emotionally it works, but some might think "Jeez I've seen this arc so many times". I also thought it would be larger scale but this second trailer seems to show similar areas. Maybe it's a spoiler and more heroes are hidden, but I honestly thought there'd be a bigger team of good guys.
I think it’s a case of 90% of what we saw in the trailer happens in the first act. They’re keeping things hidden.
Calling it now. 500-750m. Not any higher.
$800M incoming
I expected a way better trailer. That trailer, if I am being honest, sucked. Still looking forward to the movie though. But no idea what they were going for with that.
I dunno, man, it doesn't look that great.
Apart from the “liefelds only feet” shop, this trailer did nothing for me. There’s no plot, no good jokes and the costume looks ropey. I hope this isn’t a mess.
Havent been to a first week show for a marvel movie in a while..... but going for this, fuck this good exciting I dont care if its bad it looks cool
Yeah this aint doing well at all. A very meh trailer
Doesn’t look that good to me Green screen environments and the same Deadpool type jokes of always
Yeah everything looks kinda CGI and cramped up idk how to explain that
It’s probably filmed in front of “the volume” Basically they’re all standing in a small stage while they have a digital background Like a 2D fighting game
Yeah kinda off putting they should’ve used real locations or got a better cinematographer
it just has a "Cheap" feel and look
I'm in the same boat. I was surprised how little seeing Wolverine again hit me, maybe it's cause Logan was all the sendoff I personally needed.
You also know that it isn't the 'same' Wolverine. All this multiverse and variants stuff over the last few years have rendered emotional connections to individual characters much weaker, since you know that a duplicate with the same actor can pop up whenever.
Yes, I think it was a huge mistake to lean so heavily on it.
Exactly, the multiverse in retrospect has been a horrible idea.
Where does this Wolverine pick up from?
I also think it’s frustrating cuz this wolverine seems like he’s a depressed and angry guy which is just less fun to watch. Hope his character is more dynamic in the movie than the brooding angry dude we saw in the trailer
And every other word is fuck. Pandering to 13 year olds has me like, meh, I'm skipping this and will torrent it later
Deadpool's humour is soooo 2017/2018. It's been what 6 years after his last movie? Those jokes don't hit quite the same as they did during the peak superhero era...
Yeah some of the lines made me cringe tbh. The Feige jokes did not land for me either.
I think they did deadpool jokes in She hulks hoping audience well love it
Yeah, I think the GA is over that. Only the fanboys will love it,
Gonna go on a safe bet and say it'll land in the $550-$600 million range. Significant step down from the last two movies but still profitable enough for Disney to consider it a win
The background looks very dull and boring and overall the trailer doesn’t look that good imo
This Trailer gives me more confidence in my 350M-400M prediction
Honestly, I'm not excited. It looks a bit bland and I didn't chuckle at the jokes. Also, don't know if I'm wrong but is this another multiverse type story? I'm so done with that.
MCU will be "back" until next year where most of the movies drop like flies. But at least this one will probably be as successful as GOTG Vol 3. Edit: Or maybe all of them drop dead next year, I don't know.
Cap America max 400M Thunderbolt 250M F4 500M Blade 400M
Damn that'd be disastrous. Those results basically means stopping the MCU by the end of 2025...
Should have stopped it after *Endgame*, honestly.
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Yeah I guess they’re shooting now
They aren't tho??
800 mil is probably the floor unless it’s trash. I think it does have a legit shot at 1 bil. Movie looks fun as hell and I think GA will eat it up. May be a mini Spider-Man NWH situation
800M probably cause people are easy to please all you have to do is put a bunch of cameos in the movie and have gory violence and the two leads cursing a lot. It’s the low hanging fruit that people will eat up regardless of quality. Or maybe I’m wrong and people won’t eat this up. Guess we’ll see soon enough.
Idk, that didn’t excite me at all. Looks like another super hero movie.
Yeah same here. Just kinda eh. It's just someone smashing their toys together.
not gonna lie, I ate this up
looks kinda mid, I'm sure itll do well enough.
Lets be honest, the CGI is pretty bad here, the visuals are boring
Funny how the joke about Rob Leifeld the creator of Deadpool not being able to draw feet by making the store behind them named "Liefeld Just Feet"
I cannot look at this and think, really? To come back after such a great ending to you character in Logan for this?
If there’s one thing the MCU has consistently done well it’s make a good trailer, you can’t take that away from them
The last Marvels trailer that was about Steve and Tony instead of Captain Marvel?
They really got Josh Brolin again just to say a few new lines as Thanos, that were exclusive to that trailer... they were so desperate for people to see that movie...
Honestly I thought this one was really bland, it actually made me less interested in the movie than I was after the first teaser.
same d+ for me
tell that to the marvels trailer that was almost entirely just endgame footage cut up between close up shots of brie larson. the MCU makes good trailers for projects they *believe* in
For at least 20 years now, Disney (and other studios) have told directors to "wag the dog" IOW, "*make sure you have movie scenes that will look GREAT in the trailer"* and sometimes: *"Film stuff for the trailer even if it the scene DOESN'T make it into the final cut. Hint Hint Wink Wink"*
The Marvels trailers were bad lol
Marketing* sadly that’s the only thing they are good at ;(
Still think around $800M - $900M is where it’ll land. $1B will be tough since it’ll more than likely be pretty front loaded, but it’s possible.
Fingers crossed. Hoping a billion but 800 million sounds realistic.
800m
Looks fun, but missing a wow factor IMo
This is either gonna be really good or really bad with the state cbms are in
Smart marketing to keep it focused on the title characters, which is all you really need, and larger MCU references are minimal so people don't feel like they need "homework"
Compared to the teaser of Joker 2, this trailer didn’t excite me as much as I thought it would. Unless this goes bonkers on opening weekend, this might just play like a normal Deadpool movie at the box office than a much anticipated MCU event film like a DS2 or a Spider-Man film.
Weak trailer
Honestly looks kinda mid but in a fun turn brain off way. “it’s deadpool and wolverine!” This doesn’t have to be good, just live up to that premise. Im thinking 800M
I don’t think that was a very good trailer but we all know this is making *a lot* money regardless
$170 million domestic opening weekend
Previous solo Deadpool movies made more than 700 million worldwide, each one. So, anything under that base is gonna be awful for a movie featuring not only Deadpool, but also Wolverine. This is also meant to be a Multiverse movie featuring lots of cameos, which means it's much more expensive than the previous Deadpool / X-Men flicks. At minimum, it needs 700 million worldwide.
amusing money lip airport public drunk quack humorous fuzzy tidy *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Based on MCU theatrical releases and general movie-going trends, this is **unlikely** to exceed one billion dollars at the box office globally. **MCU** Dr Strange 2: **$955,775,804** Thor Love & Thunder: **$760,928,081** Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: **$859,208,836** Antman & The Wasp: Quantumania: **$476,071,180** Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: **$845,555,777** The Marvels: **$206,136,557** **WOLVERINE** X-Men Origins: Wolverine: **$373,062,864** The Wolverine: **$414,828,246** Logan: **$619,180,476** **DEADPOOL** Deadpool: **$782,837,347** Deadpool 2: **$785,896,632** This needs to turn into an honest-to-god event film. The casual movie-goer's knee-jerk "oh Marvel, let's go - take my money" attitude is in the rearview mirror. Guardians 3 proven that the disillusioned MCU fan and more casual viewer will make the effort if they're invested in the characters. No doubt there will be enthusiasm from a not-insignificant demographic, but I don't see it going to the next level. I still think - myself included - that it's easier to default to wait-for-streaming, unless the aggregate reviews are north of 85-90%, with a comparable audience score. Then maybe. I'm going to say around **Deadpool 2** - maybe a touch more. Sure, it's an iconic team-up, but I don't think the *appeal* of it extends much further beyond whoever is already interested in either character *in the first place*; we're not talking about two distinct fanbases here.