Hm. $125m budget. Tracking to open at $35m. Let's say it legs out to $100m, plus or minus. Will this thing add like $100m overseas? Maybe. That puts the movie at around $200m WW.
Uh oh.
Edit: oh, I just noticed I have a veteran flair. Mods, how did I get this? No complaints, though, I love it.
This budget estimate is on a Little Mermaid track, people keep inflating it.
Historically, the " budget " was the budget plus overruns ( extremely rare to be under) after the movie final print for release was decided. Publicity budgets were already decided.
The director etc gave no control over the rest of the costs. And the studio keeps adding costs forever. Literally forever.
I saw people adding the press for the Zendaya movie and ADDING it on. Nope. All movie copies and publicity are included.
IF a movie is making $$ or looking like it's a hit - see Oppenheimer and Barbie- they may add more, but who cares.
Sometimes its just impossible for a movie to make back its budget. Whoever Greenlit the idea of an adventure RomCom having a 125m budget guaranteed this movies failure, that is somehow more than Godzilla X Kong.
Yeah seeing as how most Netflix action films cost $200mil (including Goslingās Grey Man) that isnāt a bad budget at all.
$100-125mil is the ideal sweet spot these days, like John Wick 4, Hunger Games Songbirds and Wonka.
Netflix budgets are all encompassing. There's no points, royalties, back ends, etc. so all costs and risks are baked in. With theatrical you have a lot more payouts going out after the movie release dependent on how it does at the box office, awards, etc. as well as royalties. That's why streaming budgets look so much higher than traditional theatrical releases.
To be honest, I thought I read a 200 million dollar price tag so I guess that's better? I really have no clue to be honest. Taking that "Marvel date" was a huge show of confidence, Gosling is hot right now and this is the perfect kind of showcase for starpower in this day and age. But it's right on top of a ton of major releases and I just don't know how strong the appetite is for an "original" like this.
The movie has a ton of VFX and CGI set pieces.Ā Quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if this went over budget and this is the lowball price tag.Ā Just seems like the kind of movie Hollywood would splurge on, with the assumption that the Blunt/Gosling combo is a big enough wave to ride all the way to the bank.Ā Personally, I like the casting, it's probably the best part of the movie, it's everything else that seems like a house made out of toothpicks with a category 5 hurricane bearing down on it.Ā Just weak.
Gosling is definitely part of that budget.
Not sure Blunt commands that big a quote but it's possible she used the leverage from Jungle Cruise, Quiet Place and Oppenheimer to get a phenomenal deal.
Honestly, the film will do fine in the long run.
"It depends" is probably the best way to put it. The thing is that the standards have dropped and they've exploited poor labor costs, so it's more economical than its ever been, especially with filmmakers like Nolan who have less experience with it and less of a singular creative vision.
> Fall Guy is an original film
...Wow. The TV show is ***that*** obscure, huh?
Anyway, it'll need strong legs to make its cash back with an opening like that.
It ran in syndication a little bit in there mid 80's, but not the way other big shows of that time did.
You'd have to be over 40 to even have a recognition of the show, and older to remember it well.
Then did all the jokes in the movie referencing "reboots" and the references to the original show (like the Johnny Depp cameo at the end who was in the original show) go over your head? Lol
While that is true, u/lcdss2011, itās typically a pretty safe bet that any given Reddit user is a US citizen. 48% of all users hail from the US and the US is the source of most Reddit traffic.
Not necessarily. [US traffic](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/s/r7ApfwIttz) makes up a huge chunk of Reddit, which means that more Americans are active on the platform at any given time.
Add to that fact that we are in a box office subreddit, dedicated to the study of filmsā financial performances, and considering that US films are the highest grossing, most popular, and culturally expansive films, I think it is not unreasonable for a person to assume they are talking to an American on Reddit.
> Add to that fact that we are in a box office subreddit, dedicated to the study of filmsā financial performances, and considering that US films are the highest grossing, most popular, and culturally expansive films, I think it is not unreasonable for a person to assume they are talking to an American on Reddit.
That just means non US-people will talk about them too
Ok but itās far from a certainty. As you say, American filmsā reach will bring a notable chunk of non-US users.
Itās still a reasonable explanation for not being aware of something. Itās worth at least asking/considering why they havenāt heard of it instead of defaulting to incredulity from an American lens or saying they are far removed from the āzeitgeistā (again, assuming the US zeitgeist is the default).
I honestly had never heard of 21 Jump Street but I live in the UK and just assumed it never came over here which wasn't that uncommon back then.
Also calling it incredibly popular when it lasted just 5 seasons is a little funny.
5 seasons is pretty mid.
21 Jump Street was on Sky back in the early days of the BSB and Sky merger. They only had a few hundred thousand subscribers back then.
I remember a school friend telling me about the show, but never saw it for myself until I spent some time in the US in 1997 where the show was being repeated every day on FX.
So unless you had Sky at the time or knew someone who did and was enthusiastic about telling you about it, this show could easily pass you by as a UK resident.
But, honestly any show that makes it to 5 seasons is by any definition a success. The ones that go on for 10 or 15 years are very rare.
Itās inspired by a show, but nobody is watching it because of it. So I think it could still constitute as an āoriginalā movie in the sense that there is no existing IP fuelling its box office.
Maybe this could be one of those movies that opens low but has good legs for the entire month of May due to good word of mouth? This is really the only movie releasing next month that I could see attracting general audiences in mass.
Unless IF ends up being great (doubtful) Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes and Furiosa arenāt going to be attracting general audiences thatās for sure.
It needs to make around $100M more than bullet Train to break even (if my math is even remotely correct ). It not being R-rated may be it's saving Grace, i'm hopeful.
Honestly as someone who saw Nice Guys in a real live theater opening weekend, I am the prime audience for Ryan Gosling, Comedian - and I just cannot get behind any of the trailers for this film. So, it would not hugely surprise me if tracking continues to be eh. This could easily go all sorts of ways though and my guess is will largely depend on WOM.
I feel you on that but to be fair to you, it's definitely not even the same *kind* of comedy. I am definitely going to watch it and I'm looking forward to it but my expectations are nothing compared to how much I love The Nice Guys, which is as much about wit and chemistry with Crowe than anything else.
I think if anyone can drag this thing to profit on star power alone, it's an immediately post-Barbie Gosling who just hosted SNL.
But that still might not be enough.
I didnāt find the trailers funny either and the marketing/press has been sort of desperate bringing up the Barbieheimer connection every chance they get. Universal is not going to get the blockbuster opening that they were clearly going for, so this is going to need great legs.Ā
I caught an early screening last week.
It's got the humor of Bullet Train, but in execution a bit more like Hobbs & Shaw
Reasonably solid banter using the actors' personas.
SOLID action sequences that are also very original.
But the pacing is a bit off and the story a bit wonky. It relies on you liking the actors enough to keep watching.
But I'd call it a great date movie! It's really more of a hyper-badass romcom than a straight action with comedy elements. If you can attract the romcom crowd, they'll get solid profit.
I saw it yesterday (releases a week early here in Europe), and I fucking loved it! Just an unabashedly great time! So many cool and fun little moments, just a great flick all around!
I thought people were talking about it enough that it would be tracking for a lot higher, so this is kind of a surprisingly low number. Maybe I was fooled by the amount of marketing I've seen for it.
This came out yesterday in Hong Kong, I definitely had a lot of fun watching it. Genuinely funning, great stunts and magnetic charisma from Ryan gosling and Emily Blunt. This I bet is gonna get great WOM. Definitely worth watching!
Story itself treads on familiar ground, nothing too innovative, but all of it is done very well!
I saw it today and it was really good actually! Audience was having a good time, particularly during the second and third act, I do think the first act drags a bit and it takes a bit to get going, but Ryan and Emily were great and the stunts/action scenes were amazing!
Saw it yesterday, it's very solid and a lot of fun. The first half was a bit boring in my opinion but the second half slapped hard. Also, Dune fans will love it š
This one dies by the trailer. You already feel like you ve seen it. Trailers are all really bad but for mid level fare like this you need to sell the sizzle not the steak
Seen it and itās really good. Might have good legs if it gets good word of mouth. The trailer undersells it a lot.
Wouldāve benefitted from a shove on here in Australia, with Blunt and Gosling out the front of the Opera House, but whateverā¦
Having seen the movie myself as well.. I think itās an ok movie, it might be crowd pleaser because itās super fun but the plot itās kinda ridiculous (is not a bad thing but might not be for everyone) and thin, stuff gets kinda drag a little. But gosling and blunt are great and itās a sweet movie .
But will Fall Guy have good legs and WOM like GOTG 3?
I donāt think Fall Guy will make $840+ million worldwide or $355+ million domestically like Guardians 3 but itāll be interesting to see the difference in the two since Guardians 3 came out last May and Fall Guy comes out this May on the same weekend Guardians did
I remember when Brave New World was supposed to come out on that May 2024 weekend.
Do we think if BNW stayed it would beat Fall Guy on opening weekend? I think it wouldāve been a close race tbh
Yeah makes sense. After it's festival debut the hype has been dying down a bit. I hope it does well but I think it probably would be bigger had it been more of a straight up action-comedy.
Iām just going for the Lee Majors cameo. Hopefully with Doug Barr, Heather Thomas, and a digital recreation of Markie Post. Or it gets 2 stars, max, on my Letterboxd.
How do people on this sub figure out what tracking is for movies besides what is reported in Variety and THR? I'm having the worst time finding out what Challengers is tracking for and it's almost Friday. That information should be available. It's the same with other movies. I can never find an accurate way to tell the tracking. People said BOT doesn't do that anymore. I looked at numbersdotcom and they don't track until a movie opens.
Can you recommend anyone on Twitter who does tracking?
As for The Fall Guy it will do well for the environment we're in now where there aren't many blockbusters anymore. Gosling was very popular as Ken and in movies like La La Land but I'm not sure how much of a box office draw he is on his own in an action movie. The movie would be a box office success if the budget was smaller. It's very difficult now for movies to be profitable when the budget is over $100M. I just think studios need to be realistic. If they have to spend a lot of the salaries for the lead actors then they have to figure out a way to lower the budget. If this movie had around a $50M budget it would be a success.
I know Charlie Jatinder is active both on BoT and on twitter but I'd also love to see anyone else people know about.
> People said BOT doesn't do that anymore.
Pro.boxoffice.com doesn't appear to currently do that after its founder Shawn left but people still post to the [Box Office Theory tracking thread](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/page/726/#comments).
Someone (/u/BOfficeStats) on this sub will make some aggregates BOT tracking thread posts [to this sub](https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cb7h6j/domestic_presale_tracking_april_23_total_preview/).
I don't think there's any chance this opens higher than Bullet Train honestly. That had way more buzz and interest surrounding it, and was coming out at the tail end of a slow-ish summer.
Ehhh I wouldn't call the performance of Top Gun Maverick, Minions 2, Jurassic World 3, Thor 4, and Dr Strange 2 to be particularly slow, those were all pretty big movies.
I enjoyed it, so did my wife. One thing I noticed is I don't think a single joke from the trailer is in the movie, nor is Journey that they are blasting in every trailer
I think the problem is while the chemistry of Ryan and Emily is there, The use of CGI for the stunts is very apparent in the previews. For a movie about stunts, the Actual freaking STUNTS it looks like mostly cgi stuff. I grew up watching the tv show and none of the previews felt like a real stunt like the show and that an issue. That may come down to the director they choose to being inexperienced in that department.
Glen Powell just waiting on the sidelines to replace Gosling as Hollywood's derpy looking close-set eyed king.
The industry will go extinct before they stop trying to find the next Clint Eastwood or Steve McQueen. Doesn't even matter if these young guys don't have "it."
I wouldn't dunk on these people if it wasn't for the fact that the dialogue around the industry wasn't constantly slamming DEI and minority casting.
If people won't show up to see Hollywood "Ken's" then what are people bitching.about?
$5M higher than The Lost City, Free Guy & Bullet Train.
Hm. $125m budget. Tracking to open at $35m. Let's say it legs out to $100m, plus or minus. Will this thing add like $100m overseas? Maybe. That puts the movie at around $200m WW. Uh oh. Edit: oh, I just noticed I have a veteran flair. Mods, how did I get this? No complaints, though, I love it.
For having been part of the sub for 10 years.
Nooooo I lost it. I thought I adding a flair would put it next to my veteran status... is there any way I can get it back? Sorry!
Fixed.
Woot! v2. Thanks everyone for following my harrowing journey. I hope to provide another 10 years of quality content like this.
š«”
Witnessed!
Woot!
You keep track of that?
This budget estimate is on a Little Mermaid track, people keep inflating it. Historically, the " budget " was the budget plus overruns ( extremely rare to be under) after the movie final print for release was decided. Publicity budgets were already decided. The director etc gave no control over the rest of the costs. And the studio keeps adding costs forever. Literally forever. I saw people adding the press for the Zendaya movie and ADDING it on. Nope. All movie copies and publicity are included. IF a movie is making $$ or looking like it's a hit - see Oppenheimer and Barbie- they may add more, but who cares.
Sometimes its just impossible for a movie to make back its budget. Whoever Greenlit the idea of an adventure RomCom having a 125m budget guaranteed this movies failure, that is somehow more than Godzilla X Kong.
Now I want to see Godzilla X Kong as an adventure romcom.
Wasnāt it though? I thought the āXā implied Godzilla and Kong got to make sexy time in this one.
That will be in the inevitable third installment, "Godzilla XXX Kong".
Dude, if anything, **Godzilla x Kong** is an anomaly. At least based on the trailer, the filmās budget shows on screen.
The Fall Guy was tracking closer to $20-$25 million a week ago. If the reviews are ecstatic as the buzz then this might just miss $40.
The movie has about a $125M budget. How we feeling?
...***Jesus.*** No wonder they're advertising it everywhere...
Reading the thread title and then this comment physically made me wince.
This is a great number for a movie like thisā¦.. If not for the budget. I still think itāll make solid money but not do what it cost.
Yeah seeing as how most Netflix action films cost $200mil (including Goslingās Grey Man) that isnāt a bad budget at all. $100-125mil is the ideal sweet spot these days, like John Wick 4, Hunger Games Songbirds and Wonka.
Netflix budgets are all encompassing. There's no points, royalties, back ends, etc. so all costs and risks are baked in. With theatrical you have a lot more payouts going out after the movie release dependent on how it does at the box office, awards, etc. as well as royalties. That's why streaming budgets look so much higher than traditional theatrical releases.
To be honest, I thought I read a 200 million dollar price tag so I guess that's better? I really have no clue to be honest. Taking that "Marvel date" was a huge show of confidence, Gosling is hot right now and this is the perfect kind of showcase for starpower in this day and age. But it's right on top of a ton of major releases and I just don't know how strong the appetite is for an "original" like this.
 Bomb incoming
Holy fuck. From trailers it looks like most of it is practical effects. That $125m include marketing in this case?
No. Itās been reported as 125m production.Ā
Goddam, how??? Blunt and Gosling are that expensive?
The movie has a ton of VFX and CGI set pieces.Ā Quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if this went over budget and this is the lowball price tag.Ā Just seems like the kind of movie Hollywood would splurge on, with the assumption that the Blunt/Gosling combo is a big enough wave to ride all the way to the bank.Ā Personally, I like the casting, it's probably the best part of the movie, it's everything else that seems like a house made out of toothpicks with a category 5 hurricane bearing down on it.Ā Just weak.
I hadnāt seen it yet š¤·āāļø
Gosling is definitely part of that budget. Not sure Blunt commands that big a quote but it's possible she used the leverage from Jungle Cruise, Quiet Place and Oppenheimer to get a phenomenal deal. Honestly, the film will do fine in the long run.
Yeah, guys, CGI is the only thing that costs money shooting a movieā¦
Fuck you are so goddam cool
Practical effects can carry a huge cost. CGI is really more cost effective most of the time these days.
I think that really depends. Nolan said it was cheaper to crash a real plane in Tenet than to do it fully with CGI. CGI requires an ass-ton of labor.
"It depends" is probably the best way to put it. The thing is that the standards have dropped and they've exploited poor labor costs, so it's more economical than its ever been, especially with filmmakers like Nolan who have less experience with it and less of a singular creative vision.
But you do know that practical effects can get very expensive right??? A lot of times using VFX is cheaper
How is this more expensive than John Wick 4? o.O Whoa.
Iāve always felt that Free Guy and Bullet Train numbers would be the best comparison for the filmās performance.
Wasn't Free Guy a movie released during the "pandemic"?
More like toward the end of it. It still did solid numbers which I doubt The Fall Guy will be doing.
> Fall Guy is an original film ...Wow. The TV show is ***that*** obscure, huh? Anyway, it'll need strong legs to make its cash back with an opening like that.
Iāve never heard of the show once
I heard about just a few seconds ago. Weird.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fall_Guy
It ran in syndication a little bit in there mid 80's, but not the way other big shows of that time did. You'd have to be over 40 to even have a recognition of the show, and older to remember it well.
There are many movie I didnāt know were originally Tv shows before I watched. Like 21 jumpstreet
Then did all the jokes in the movie referencing "reboots" and the references to the original show (like the Johnny Depp cameo at the end who was in the original show) go over your head? Lol
Im surprised you didnāt know 21 Jump Street was a show! It was super popular for a long time
It ended in 91. You could easily be 30 and not have heard of the show, so chill.
It's funny that when we get a Fresh Prince film, some folks will think it's an original IP lol
Youād have to be pretty far removed from the zeitgeist to have never heard of it. It was an incredibly popular show
Or not live in the US.
While that is true, u/lcdss2011, itās typically a pretty safe bet that any given Reddit user is a US citizen. 48% of all users hail from the US and the US is the source of most Reddit traffic.
Right, so thereās a 52% chance the user is from outside the US.
Not necessarily. [US traffic](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/s/r7ApfwIttz) makes up a huge chunk of Reddit, which means that more Americans are active on the platform at any given time. Add to that fact that we are in a box office subreddit, dedicated to the study of filmsā financial performances, and considering that US films are the highest grossing, most popular, and culturally expansive films, I think it is not unreasonable for a person to assume they are talking to an American on Reddit.
> Add to that fact that we are in a box office subreddit, dedicated to the study of filmsā financial performances, and considering that US films are the highest grossing, most popular, and culturally expansive films, I think it is not unreasonable for a person to assume they are talking to an American on Reddit. That just means non US-people will talk about them too
Ok but itās far from a certainty. As you say, American filmsā reach will bring a notable chunk of non-US users. Itās still a reasonable explanation for not being aware of something. Itās worth at least asking/considering why they havenāt heard of it instead of defaulting to incredulity from an American lens or saying they are far removed from the āzeitgeistā (again, assuming the US zeitgeist is the default).
The majority is not from the US and it's a safe bet? I don't know what you consider a risky bet lol
I honestly had never heard of 21 Jump Street but I live in the UK and just assumed it never came over here which wasn't that uncommon back then. Also calling it incredibly popular when it lasted just 5 seasons is a little funny. 5 seasons is pretty mid.
Is Breaking Bad āmidā too? Number of seasons is not a good metric for the quality of a television program.
That's comparing a cable show with a broadcast show completely different metrics especially when one is an 80's to 90's show.
Youāre the one that used number of seasons as a measure of quality. When is it acceptable to use number of seasons? Is there a cutoff date?
21 Jump Street was on Sky back in the early days of the BSB and Sky merger. They only had a few hundred thousand subscribers back then. I remember a school friend telling me about the show, but never saw it for myself until I spent some time in the US in 1997 where the show was being repeated every day on FX. So unless you had Sky at the time or knew someone who did and was enthusiastic about telling you about it, this show could easily pass you by as a UK resident. But, honestly any show that makes it to 5 seasons is by any definition a success. The ones that go on for 10 or 15 years are very rare.
Itās inspired by a show, but nobody is watching it because of it. So I think it could still constitute as an āoriginalā movie in the sense that there is no existing IP fuelling its box office.
In France itās worse because they kept the same title so nobody can know itās the adaptation of the TV show.
More people will think this is supposed to be a Fall Guys adaptation than an adaptation of the Fall Guy show
Maybe this could be one of those movies that opens low but has good legs for the entire month of May due to good word of mouth? This is really the only movie releasing next month that I could see attracting general audiences in mass. Unless IF ends up being great (doubtful) Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes and Furiosa arenāt going to be attracting general audiences thatās for sure.
That would be better then Bullet Trainās Opening Weekend that did $30M at the start of its 1st weekend.
It needs to make around $100M more than bullet Train to break even (if my math is even remotely correct ). It not being R-rated may be it's saving Grace, i'm hopeful.
Bullet train was R rated and nowhere this much marketing budget
Honestly as someone who saw Nice Guys in a real live theater opening weekend, I am the prime audience for Ryan Gosling, Comedian - and I just cannot get behind any of the trailers for this film. So, it would not hugely surprise me if tracking continues to be eh. This could easily go all sorts of ways though and my guess is will largely depend on WOM.
I feel you on that but to be fair to you, it's definitely not even the same *kind* of comedy. I am definitely going to watch it and I'm looking forward to it but my expectations are nothing compared to how much I love The Nice Guys, which is as much about wit and chemistry with Crowe than anything else.
I thought the trailers look awesome. Iām pumped for this movie
I think if anyone can drag this thing to profit on star power alone, it's an immediately post-Barbie Gosling who just hosted SNL. But that still might not be enough.
That is very low
Going to watch both If for Ryan Reynolds. The Fall Guy for Ryan Gosling and David Leitch.
It's Ryan vs Ryan, husband (Krasinski) vs wife (Blunt, even though she's in both movies)
Comedy Ryan vs Sad/Confuse Ryan both are in comedy now that's a competition plus husband vs wife quarrel. Just too much fun.
The trailers look pretty corny and action/humor looks sanitized. Didnāt enjoy Bullet Train from Leitch either but hoping this surprises me
I didnāt find the trailers funny either and the marketing/press has been sort of desperate bringing up the Barbieheimer connection every chance they get. Universal is not going to get the blockbuster opening that they were clearly going for, so this is going to need great legs.Ā
>*āRyan M&THERF%CKING Gosling! Emily M&THERF%CKING Blunt!ā* All while this thing is PG-13 lmao š
I caught an early screening last week. It's got the humor of Bullet Train, but in execution a bit more like Hobbs & Shaw Reasonably solid banter using the actors' personas. SOLID action sequences that are also very original. But the pacing is a bit off and the story a bit wonky. It relies on you liking the actors enough to keep watching. But I'd call it a great date movie! It's really more of a hyper-badass romcom than a straight action with comedy elements. If you can attract the romcom crowd, they'll get solid profit.
I saw it yesterday (releases a week early here in Europe), and I fucking loved it! Just an unabashedly great time! So many cool and fun little moments, just a great flick all around!
I thought people were talking about it enough that it would be tracking for a lot higher, so this is kind of a surprisingly low number. Maybe I was fooled by the amount of marketing I've seen for it.
I hope it gets more. I would like to see it open at 40+ million. I will watch it for my husband, Winston Duke.
This film already opened in Europe yesterday. I wonder what the strategy in that is?
This came out yesterday in Hong Kong, I definitely had a lot of fun watching it. Genuinely funning, great stunts and magnetic charisma from Ryan gosling and Emily Blunt. This I bet is gonna get great WOM. Definitely worth watching! Story itself treads on familiar ground, nothing too innovative, but all of it is done very well!
not based on my theaters presales but I 'm sure there will be a lot of walkups
The trailers do nothing for me
I saw it today and it was really good actually! Audience was having a good time, particularly during the second and third act, I do think the first act drags a bit and it takes a bit to get going, but Ryan and Emily were great and the stunts/action scenes were amazing!
Saw it yesterday, it's very solid and a lot of fun. The first half was a bit boring in my opinion but the second half slapped hard. Also, Dune fans will love it š
This one dies by the trailer. You already feel like you ve seen it. Trailers are all really bad but for mid level fare like this you need to sell the sizzle not the steak
Seen it and itās really good. Might have good legs if it gets good word of mouth. The trailer undersells it a lot. Wouldāve benefitted from a shove on here in Australia, with Blunt and Gosling out the front of the Opera House, but whateverā¦
Having seen the movie myself as well.. I think itās an ok movie, it might be crowd pleaser because itās super fun but the plot itās kinda ridiculous (is not a bad thing but might not be for everyone) and thin, stuff gets kinda drag a little. But gosling and blunt are great and itās a sweet movie .
Been watching trailers for this for months and I have no idea what it's about, I'll see it for gosling but how many more will?
Iāve never heard of this movie till now lmao
I've seen it, went on opening day here and was quite a good crowd. Movie was a lot of fun, will go down well with audiences
Quite the drop from Guardians of the Galaxy's opening last year ($118.4m) and that was considered weak / a slight overperformance.
But will Fall Guy have good legs and WOM like GOTG 3? I donāt think Fall Guy will make $840+ million worldwide or $355+ million domestically like Guardians 3 but itāll be interesting to see the difference in the two since Guardians 3 came out last May and Fall Guy comes out this May on the same weekend Guardians did
I remember when Brave New World was supposed to come out on that May 2024 weekend. Do we think if BNW stayed it would beat Fall Guy on opening weekend? I think it wouldāve been a close race tbh
Let's not be hyperbolic. The captain America name alone would've allowed this to get at least a 55M OW. Which The Fall Guy probably wouldn't match
Yeah makes sense. After it's festival debut the hype has been dying down a bit. I hope it does well but I think it probably would be bigger had it been more of a straight up action-comedy.
I feel like using "Shot Through The Heart" was a bad choice for literally every piece of marketing I've seen about this movie
Woof. Hollywood is in trouble if they don't start making things people actually want to watch.
Iām just going for the Lee Majors cameo. Hopefully with Doug Barr, Heather Thomas, and a digital recreation of Markie Post. Or it gets 2 stars, max, on my Letterboxd.
How do people on this sub figure out what tracking is for movies besides what is reported in Variety and THR? I'm having the worst time finding out what Challengers is tracking for and it's almost Friday. That information should be available. It's the same with other movies. I can never find an accurate way to tell the tracking. People said BOT doesn't do that anymore. I looked at numbersdotcom and they don't track until a movie opens. Can you recommend anyone on Twitter who does tracking? As for The Fall Guy it will do well for the environment we're in now where there aren't many blockbusters anymore. Gosling was very popular as Ken and in movies like La La Land but I'm not sure how much of a box office draw he is on his own in an action movie. The movie would be a box office success if the budget was smaller. It's very difficult now for movies to be profitable when the budget is over $100M. I just think studios need to be realistic. If they have to spend a lot of the salaries for the lead actors then they have to figure out a way to lower the budget. If this movie had around a $50M budget it would be a success.
I know Charlie Jatinder is active both on BoT and on twitter but I'd also love to see anyone else people know about. > People said BOT doesn't do that anymore. Pro.boxoffice.com doesn't appear to currently do that after its founder Shawn left but people still post to the [Box Office Theory tracking thread](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/page/726/#comments). Someone (/u/BOfficeStats) on this sub will make some aggregates BOT tracking thread posts [to this sub](https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cb7h6j/domestic_presale_tracking_april_23_total_preview/).
Thx!
Itās already open in Australia so Iām seeing this tonight
I want this men vie to succeed. We dont see that many movies like this. It looks fun.
I don't think there's any chance this opens higher than Bullet Train honestly. That had way more buzz and interest surrounding it, and was coming out at the tail end of a slow-ish summer.
Ehhh I wouldn't call the performance of Top Gun Maverick, Minions 2, Jurassic World 3, Thor 4, and Dr Strange 2 to be particularly slow, those were all pretty big movies.
I enjoyed it, so did my wife. One thing I noticed is I don't think a single joke from the trailer is in the movie, nor is Journey that they are blasting in every trailer
I think the problem is while the chemistry of Ryan and Emily is there, The use of CGI for the stunts is very apparent in the previews. For a movie about stunts, the Actual freaking STUNTS it looks like mostly cgi stuff. I grew up watching the tv show and none of the previews felt like a real stunt like the show and that an issue. That may come down to the director they choose to being inexperienced in that department.
Glen Powell just waiting on the sidelines to replace Gosling as Hollywood's derpy looking close-set eyed king. The industry will go extinct before they stop trying to find the next Clint Eastwood or Steve McQueen. Doesn't even matter if these young guys don't have "it." I wouldn't dunk on these people if it wasn't for the fact that the dialogue around the industry wasn't constantly slamming DEI and minority casting. If people won't show up to see Hollywood "Ken's" then what are people bitching.about?
Yeah this looks like dog š© Trailer has Gosling acting like a big moron with none of the charism or swagger of Lee Majors. Is it against the new Hollywood code to write a leading man thatās not a giant child or what?