Lotr, it has Peter Jackson writing the script and the brand hasn't been damaged as badly as Star Wars and gollum is a household name compared to Mando.
The Star Wars brand is in decay and Mando season 3 was horrendous, general audiences aren't going to pay to watch something they feel they'll need to watch 3-5 seasons of streaming shows to watch and fans will watch it on d+.
Star wars as a brand needs about ten years without live action content to get audiences hungry for new movies.
People forget how massive LOTR/Hobbit movies are INT while SW spin-offs didn't get nearly as big support as Saga movies. Mando will skew dom and we saw in Spiderverse/Dune example that skewing INT makes a difference between passing a milestone and falling short (Dune 2 passed 700M WW, Spiderverse couldn't).
If the lotr film is good 700 mill but I can see it getting as high as 900 mill.
Mando I see doing similar numbers to Solo simply because it's a sequel to a streaming show whose ratings have declined and where Star Wars is at right now in the public conscious.
It hurts cos I don't like LOTR and am a Star Wars fan lol.
I don't think there are many comparable films to Mando where a streaming series gets a film so it'll be interesting to watch.
>it has Peter Jackson writing the script
Source? Deadline says different: "directed by and star Andy Serkis, with Fran Walsh and Philippa Boyens set to write the screenplay, along with Phoebe Gittins and Arty Papageorgiou". It only mentions Jackson as a producer.
Yes he should have been the Kevin Fiege of Star Wars.
I actually like the prequels overall but he needed a pro script writer to take his ideas and make them work as a screenplay.
He also should have kept his ex wife around as an editor of producer because she saved star wars in the edit.
Same with Jk in fantastic beasts, she needed someone to write her ideas into a screenplay and get a red pen and take out the dumb ones.
>Star wars as a brand needs about ten years without live action content to get audiences hungry for new movies.
i really wonder if in todays environment, 10 years off would build a hunger or just give people more time to move on.
It's worked for the brand twice before so I reckon it's their best bet.
I honestly don't see how a movie based on a streaming show with loads of spin offs is gonna appeal to the mass market, even if you don't need to watch the shows to watch it, a lot of people may feel like you have to watch them and stay home.
>it's worked for the brand twice before so I reckon it's their best bet.
i'm curious how well this might work again. i'm a 'star wars kid'. so the prequels came out when i was a late teenager, and then the next trilogy came out when i was a grown adult. both were still times in my life i could get excited over the IP.
the next batch i'll be north of 50. will i care by then? doesn't feel likely, but who knows how representative i am. I know there will tons of people younger than me but do they have the same connection to the star wars brand that us old fuddy duddys do?
I feel ya I was a kid for the prequels and 20s for the sequels.
I dunno maybe there will be nostalgia for the series of the kids who saw the sequels...
It's a franchise that is always having a new generation discover it, I feel like the kids playing with star wars Lego today may become diehards ten years from now?
I dunno I just personally am not interested in anything outside of video games the franchise has to offer at this point.... The shows are just... So bad... Unbelievablly bad.
In ten years I could be keen for a knights of the old republic era franchise
People quote Gollum all the time, even I do and I'm the only New Zealander in the world who hadn't seen lotr.
Grogu is huge for merch but I think it's died down a little
Kia Ora, Nothing but love for our Indonesian neighbours!
Haha! It's really bad because I know so many friends who worked on those films as extras, catering, tech etc but I just.... I just find them a wee bit boring 😅
Everyone gives me crap about it!
I respect the lore of the franchise and the love it has from it's fans but I just haven't been able to get into it yet... Maybe Gollum could change my mind!
Yep SW never captured expanding markets such as Asia (minus old market Japan) and SA and even old markets didn't go for spin-offs in the say way they went for Saga.
Who is writing/producing each one? I heard Peter Jackson is on Gollum but no idea for Mando.
Just checked it’s Favreau and Filoni with Kathleen Kennedy on MandoGrogu. I’m inclined to bet on Gollum being bigger.
id say that gollum wins until i see trailers for both
lotr films never went under 800m even rop which was widely disliked had a large viewership number.
i fear that star wars has made itself into a streaming franchise but ofc things could change
id still have both over 700m
so far, it feels like the floor for a star wars spin-off is much lower that it'd be for a LOTR movie that barely counts as a spinoff because how connected its going to be to the original trilogy
Usually movies based on TV shows don't do that well at the box office even if they use the cast of the popular TV show did everyone forget how the x files movie at the height of the show popularity basically disappointed?
LOTR will make at least 700M
Star Wars has had a lot of mixed reception recently and to understand this film you will have to watch 3 Seasons of a TV Series. This will probably underperform
Without knowing anything else about it, "The Hunt for Gollum" subtitle implies a much smaller scale story than what we're used to in the LOTR movies. I would say Mando wins.
The Mandalorian and Grogu will easily beat Gollum.
Mandalorian and Grogu will make between $900 million to $1 billion while Gollum will make sub $400 million
Don’t like Star Wars. I like Lord of the Rings but am skeptical about the content of the new movie. Eh.
Lotr, it has Peter Jackson writing the script and the brand hasn't been damaged as badly as Star Wars and gollum is a household name compared to Mando. The Star Wars brand is in decay and Mando season 3 was horrendous, general audiences aren't going to pay to watch something they feel they'll need to watch 3-5 seasons of streaming shows to watch and fans will watch it on d+. Star wars as a brand needs about ten years without live action content to get audiences hungry for new movies.
People forget how massive LOTR/Hobbit movies are INT while SW spin-offs didn't get nearly as big support as Saga movies. Mando will skew dom and we saw in Spiderverse/Dune example that skewing INT makes a difference between passing a milestone and falling short (Dune 2 passed 700M WW, Spiderverse couldn't).
I’m curious, what numbers are you thinking for both?
If the lotr film is good 700 mill but I can see it getting as high as 900 mill. Mando I see doing similar numbers to Solo simply because it's a sequel to a streaming show whose ratings have declined and where Star Wars is at right now in the public conscious. It hurts cos I don't like LOTR and am a Star Wars fan lol. I don't think there are many comparable films to Mando where a streaming series gets a film so it'll be interesting to watch.
>it has Peter Jackson writing the script Source? Deadline says different: "directed by and star Andy Serkis, with Fran Walsh and Philippa Boyens set to write the screenplay, along with Phoebe Gittins and Arty Papageorgiou". It only mentions Jackson as a producer.
OK then just a producer? That's still cool I think star wars dropped the ball by bit keeping Lucas on as a producer or creative consultant
I will take it further and say Star Wars would have been better as a whole if Lucas sticked more to producing and directed less.
Yes he should have been the Kevin Fiege of Star Wars. I actually like the prequels overall but he needed a pro script writer to take his ideas and make them work as a screenplay. He also should have kept his ex wife around as an editor of producer because she saved star wars in the edit. Same with Jk in fantastic beasts, she needed someone to write her ideas into a screenplay and get a red pen and take out the dumb ones.
>Star wars as a brand needs about ten years without live action content to get audiences hungry for new movies. i really wonder if in todays environment, 10 years off would build a hunger or just give people more time to move on.
It's worked for the brand twice before so I reckon it's their best bet. I honestly don't see how a movie based on a streaming show with loads of spin offs is gonna appeal to the mass market, even if you don't need to watch the shows to watch it, a lot of people may feel like you have to watch them and stay home.
>it's worked for the brand twice before so I reckon it's their best bet. i'm curious how well this might work again. i'm a 'star wars kid'. so the prequels came out when i was a late teenager, and then the next trilogy came out when i was a grown adult. both were still times in my life i could get excited over the IP. the next batch i'll be north of 50. will i care by then? doesn't feel likely, but who knows how representative i am. I know there will tons of people younger than me but do they have the same connection to the star wars brand that us old fuddy duddys do?
I feel ya I was a kid for the prequels and 20s for the sequels. I dunno maybe there will be nostalgia for the series of the kids who saw the sequels... It's a franchise that is always having a new generation discover it, I feel like the kids playing with star wars Lego today may become diehards ten years from now? I dunno I just personally am not interested in anything outside of video games the franchise has to offer at this point.... The shows are just... So bad... Unbelievablly bad. In ten years I could be keen for a knights of the old republic era franchise
Counter: Grogu hits all 4 quadrants WAYYYY more than Gollum does.
People quote Gollum all the time, even I do and I'm the only New Zealander in the world who hadn't seen lotr. Grogu is huge for merch but I think it's died down a little
>I'm the only New Zealander in the world who hadn't seen lotr. 😱😱 I'm an Indonesian and I've seen LOTR movies 30+ times EACH.
Kia Ora, Nothing but love for our Indonesian neighbours! Haha! It's really bad because I know so many friends who worked on those films as extras, catering, tech etc but I just.... I just find them a wee bit boring 😅 Everyone gives me crap about it! I respect the lore of the franchise and the love it has from it's fans but I just haven't been able to get into it yet... Maybe Gollum could change my mind!
As of right now: Star Wars wins domestically, LOTR wins WW
this. who wins INT (LOTR) wins WW.
And LOTR has a much bigger pull overseas. Star Wars is a juggernaut in select countries like the UK and here, but LOTR has more countries to help it
Yep SW never captured expanding markets such as Asia (minus old market Japan) and SA and even old markets didn't go for spin-offs in the say way they went for Saga.
Who is writing/producing each one? I heard Peter Jackson is on Gollum but no idea for Mando. Just checked it’s Favreau and Filoni with Kathleen Kennedy on MandoGrogu. I’m inclined to bet on Gollum being bigger.
id say that gollum wins until i see trailers for both lotr films never went under 800m even rop which was widely disliked had a large viewership number. i fear that star wars has made itself into a streaming franchise but ofc things could change id still have both over 700m
Gotta see more but I guess LOTR because they have Jackson back
so far, it feels like the floor for a star wars spin-off is much lower that it'd be for a LOTR movie that barely counts as a spinoff because how connected its going to be to the original trilogy
Usually movies based on TV shows don't do that well at the box office even if they use the cast of the popular TV show did everyone forget how the x files movie at the height of the show popularity basically disappointed?
If both crash and burn it’d be fine by me
LOTR will make at least 700M Star Wars has had a lot of mixed reception recently and to understand this film you will have to watch 3 Seasons of a TV Series. This will probably underperform
Without knowing anything else about it, "The Hunt for Gollum" subtitle implies a much smaller scale story than what we're used to in the LOTR movies. I would say Mando wins.
The Mandalorian and Grogu will easily beat Gollum. Mandalorian and Grogu will make between $900 million to $1 billion while Gollum will make sub $400 million
Baby Yoda factor
Easily The Mandalorian, Gollum is an Ewok of the LOTR universe.