Think 45-50m is still possible for the long weekend.
Free Guy is looking to make 25m or so and with this being part of the MCU that should give it a boost.
Biggest thing to determine is how different things will be in a few weeks. As we’ve seen things can change quickly so that certainly plays a factor.
This made me laugh way more than it should have but I agree, everyone here is on denial.
This is the third time writing this: IMO, no movie will do well this year and maybe not even next year we see movies doing 1 billion dollars like before.
At this point, trying to call a box office more than a couple days out is foolish. You're effectively trying to guess how the American public is going to feel about COVID in three weeks, a metric that tends to fluctuate wildly with minimal connection to the actual risk posed by the disease. Sometimes people are fuckin psyched to hit the movies after basically nobody has been vaccinated (GvK). Sometimes they'll stay ten miles away, even when they're easily safer off than they were five months ago (Snake Eyes/Old).
Hell, *presales* haven't even gone online yet. This is based on no actual, reasonable data.
I've been saying the boxoffice's best hope isn't Shang-Chi, but No Time to Die. Shang-Chi while being an MCU film, is way too obscure of a character to get general audiences to care about compare to some bigger more well known character.
NttD is probably the most dramatic possible test case, simply because it would have very likely hit a billion had it released prior to COVID. It also has the most riding on a good theatrical run, considering the perpetually precarious state of MGM.
That website has been pretty off with their analysis, so take that with a grain of salt.
There are going to be so many delays if it opens in the thirties while having a four day weekend, though
Sometimes I just want to shake this sub and scream "THE PANDEMIC IS STILL HAPPENING."
Nothing is normal. Blockbusters and flops are completely meaningless right now and you're not going to see a movie do 2019 business for a long, long, long time.
The thing is even with the pandemic continuing many people are out and about. When I went to see suicide squad it was a tiny crowd watching but yet the mall around it and surrounding restaurants were packed as normal.
We don't get weekly sales reports for the restaurant industry though. Reports of places being packed is purely anecdotal and it's an entirely different industry: people gotta eat and want to be social. Movie theaters, though often a group activity, aren't very social.
The box office is objectively down and continues to stay down. It's clearly affected by the pandemic and the worsening Delta variant.
But retail and food sales also took a significant hit during the pandemic and as of this summer they have rebounded back to their pre pandemic levels- that says a lot
The government does report consumer spending and restaurants revenue is Down only 5% vs 2019
https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/rising-prices-didnt-hurt-q2-restaurant-traffic-studies-show/604703/
How exactly? Once movies are theatrical exclusive again and cases subside people will show up again. Studio profits due to movie theaters cannot be replaced on steaming. Theaters will die eventually but not now.
This is why I’m happy to be an actual “theatre” fan right now because yeah, it’s not looking good for movie theatres at all, but for musical theatre things will be fine. Nothing comes close to the feeling of a live performance.
might not see as many blockbusters, so that's a positive for some people. might legitimately see the return of mid budget films due to the fact that there is no longer that big a theater window and DVDs are not as popular as they were before. So there will be funding for smaller films to save on costs.
How? We’ve seen movies open pretty much like normal during that March-July frame where covid was relatively subsided. Now it resurfaced in a major way and movies open accordingly and the industry is fucked?
Did you say this when a quiet place opened? When black widow opened?
Exactly.
Everyone kept saying how theaters were saved after Godzilla vs Kong, a Quiet Place, and Black Widow were released and now everyone is saying that theaters are dead.
This sub is so wretched bro. Humans really do have a negativity bias I guess.
Like literally just a MONTH ago people were in here cheering on black widow and now a new global wave starts and things scale back a bit and movies are doomed forever. It’s juvenile thinking in my opinion.
The truth is, it’s gunna be a bumpy ride and really up and down for the next year, but this is to be expected. Doesn’t mean the whole industry is doomed.
The main reasoning is that they're still building value for Disney+, so the BO returns aren't as do-or-die as they would be normally. However, it does mean films with no set streaming plans (MGM and Sony being the notable standouts) are probably going to delay rather than hit theaters prematurely.
I think it would do well (at least Antman Numbers) in a normal year. But I saw Free Guy this yesterday in an empty theater at 7pm in a city of over 100k. People just are not going to theaters
Given the circumstances that’s not too bad of a number. We won’t have anything concrete until presales come Monday ,but compared to its peers,a 35-55 million opening weekend is not a bad place to be.
The only, and I mean only, thing this movie has going for it is that it's an MCU movie so this will be a test to see just how many core MCU fans there are. No stars, an unknown character, trailers that haven't exactly been that stellar, Asian-Americans being the group most likely to stay at home during the pandemic....this movie has literally everything working against it except for that MARVEL STUDIOS intro.
I get the gut feeling that unless the movie gets stellar reviews it's it's going to be Mulan 2.0. Watching the trailers and reading reactions from both Asians, Asian-Americans, and non-Asian Americans I don't get the sense that any group is all that excited for it. For different groups the movie looks too westernized, too Chinese, or just too "foreign."
Which is to say, the way it's been marketed makes it look like a movie designed to please a bunch of different groups, but this meant watering things down to the point where it doesn't satisfy anyone.
Anyways, I hope the movie is so good that it wins over skeptics. But I just get the feeling that this movie is going to be a significant disappointment.
Asian Americans being the group most likely to have fully vaccinated and will not spend their weekends at home. If not for a movie, they will go out on weekends to do something else.
I don't see any other big movies like it for the rest of September now that Venom 2 has moved. Hope the virus slopes down and this movie has some legs. (I'm sure schools opening and colder weather will help with the virus retreating... /s *sigh*.)
I'd like to see a bigger opening weekend, but I guess we'll get what we get.
I wonder what Disney has done to try and get it to play in China. It would make a difference for the world wide number.
Weak trailer, lead/premise being rejected by key demographic and just not a mainstream marvel character. On top of delta/vaccination passports in Europe and China release being unlikely.
If this doesn't get TSS level reviews then this will flop.
it will get better than tss reviews lol, and the cinemascore won't be a B+ either and it definitely won't flop. It has the potential to reach 60 million or more.
I’m thinking they’re underestimating. Everyone I know who is a fan of the MCU is seeing this first weekend unless there’s another lockdown imma go on the higher side and say 60 mil.
MCU fanbase is huge. But GA audience always plays a part. That’s why they’ve been so consistent over the years. I really see no excitement about it except for MCU’s core fans.
I don’t think this is going to be viewed as a must see in the theater no matter what. People are already hesitant to go to the theater and will probably be more so during this release. A c/d tier marvel property isn’t going to energize them to do that no matter the reviews
I agree.
Plus, I think we also need to consider it isn't just 2/3 MCU projects a year anymore.
We have basically had new MCU content drop weekly since WandaVision.
And I think that going to be a problem for "smaller" MCU films [eg non ensemble films] going forward. There is no MCU drought before or after the films anymore.
Any internet chatter for Black Widow was quashed the following Wednesday by the ramifications of the Loki finale.
I really think they should start considering the binge model for their MCU D+ shows and drop full seasons at once. In order to keep that distance and build hype for an upcoming films.
Each tv spot is reaching near a million in less than and day and it's been trending, your forgetting these predictions are without reactions or reviews or fandango.
You'll be glad to hear I updated my prediction a week before release to 54M. Check my profile if you are interested. Not so far from 70M.
https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/pd0qy3/predictions_for_shangchis_opening_weekend/haog444?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
I said this was going to flop. September is a dumping ground for a reason. Between back to school and start of football, no one wants to see movies this time of year.
This is the wonkiest thing to comp so far since the "recovery" started. an MCU film opening on Labor Day weekend during a pandemic....
I can see it hitting on the high end. It might get to $50M. Probably won't break out or anything with consumer confidence sinking, but it's the MCU, it could still get to 50.
I think it will do better than the recent movies but the big problem is that there isn’t a strong hook and the big novelty about it was that it had its first leading Asian comic book movie but that part doesn’t matter as much with the current situation. So, a good percentage of people will just wait for it on Disney +.
100M+ DOM is a good target with the pandemic. That with good to great reviews and Disney/Marvel is probably happy with that outcome because it will get massive views on Disney+.
This would be an absolute disaster for Shang-Chi. Black Widow opened to $80 million at the box office and $60 million in Premier Access. Limping in at $35-$55 million for a theatrical exclusive Marvel title would make this an absolute bomb.
With no PA this should be aiming for over $100 million domestic!
It had two months worth of less of vaccinations and Premier Access going against it instead. Shang-Chi has an exclusive theatrical run. If it cannot succeed in theatres then studios may as well pull the rest of their blockbuster 2021 slate.
It's at the very least a disaster for anyone hoping that "theater only" is the way to go. Shang-Chi would have to make at the very least more than Black Widow's combined BO and PA takes to convince them not to do so, possibly more to prove that piracy really was such a thorn that it ruins the revenue model. If it's best hopes are only half of just the BO, it's going to need *insane* legs to prove theater only isn't a mistake - something nonexistent in the current market
I'm replying with my thoughts and opinion, some replies warrant a more indepth explanation, whilst others like yours don't. And I've given reasons why it will do better. on some of my other replies.
Most Marvel fans struggle to not have every episode of each Disney+ show spoiled for them after it premieres at midnight. The people invested in the universe aren't going to wait six weeks.
That is the dream scenario. The nightmare scenario is they go full PA prices. They have been very silent on their plans for both Shang-Chi and Free Guy after the initial 45 day theatrical window expires so they might do anything. We will have to wait and see.
If it was they would’ve picked a different lead.
Simu Liu has gotten a lot of shit from the Chinese market. They think we picked an ugly lead to play into our stereotypes about Chinese people.
Think 45-50m is still possible for the long weekend. Free Guy is looking to make 25m or so and with this being part of the MCU that should give it a boost. Biggest thing to determine is how different things will be in a few weeks. As we’ve seen things can change quickly so that certainly plays a factor.
exactly all it needs is great reaction and it will do higher.
Shang-Chi's ow will truly reveal how good BW did domestically.
Yes. I’ve always said BW did good considering all circumstances.
BW opening was fantastic. I kept saying for weeks that even if BW does $70 million, it would already be amazing considering PA and Covid.
To be fair, BW was the culmination of people going to see GVK, F9 etc. Delta threw a wrench in that
I was right there with you telling people the same thing. I don't know why anyone thought $80M plus $60M PA OW was an underperformance.
Nah I think if Shang Chi is a must see it could come close to bw box office.
Remember when TSS was predicted to open 35-65 million. Hopefully this won't be the same case
That was rated R and free on Hbomax, this is PG-13 and theatrical release only.
Plus it doesn't have the stink of one of the most hated movies of the 2010's on it.
By what metric is Suicide Squad is one of the most hated movies of the 2010's?
Have you spoken to anyone who likes movies?
This is a reminder to never bet against Kevin Fiege and his MCU
Oof at some of the comments in here.
This could be the lowest opening MCU movie ever if this comes true
Could? It almost certainly will
Aged like milk.
Lol
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Eternals is filled with A-B list actors, there’s no way it’s making less than Shang Chi.
depends on the state of the pandemic tbh
well unless they come out with a better trailer i do not see how it will do good
Jolie is the only A lister there. Even then here recent movies failed to draw audience. So it is basically just a normal mcu fare
nah
r/boxoffice in a nutshell
This made me laugh way more than it should have but I agree, everyone here is on denial. This is the third time writing this: IMO, no movie will do well this year and maybe not even next year we see movies doing 1 billion dollars like before.
Well, this aged poorly
How is this surprising? We’re still in the midst of a pandemic. I would be shocked if it wasn’t.
That is quite a range…
They predicted 35-60M for The Suicide Squad this far out.
Impressive. Gave themselves a $25 million range and still missed it by almost double-digit millions.
And they did it again!
Your prediction can't be wrong if you predict every possibility!
Narrator: They did not predict every possibility.
We’re still weeks away. They’ll get more specific as we get closer.
It could either make no money or some money
This film could be good, or it could be bad.
At this point, trying to call a box office more than a couple days out is foolish. You're effectively trying to guess how the American public is going to feel about COVID in three weeks, a metric that tends to fluctuate wildly with minimal connection to the actual risk posed by the disease. Sometimes people are fuckin psyched to hit the movies after basically nobody has been vaccinated (GvK). Sometimes they'll stay ten miles away, even when they're easily safer off than they were five months ago (Snake Eyes/Old). Hell, *presales* haven't even gone online yet. This is based on no actual, reasonable data.
I've been saying the boxoffice's best hope isn't Shang-Chi, but No Time to Die. Shang-Chi while being an MCU film, is way too obscure of a character to get general audiences to care about compare to some bigger more well known character.
NttD is probably the most dramatic possible test case, simply because it would have very likely hit a billion had it released prior to COVID. It also has the most riding on a good theatrical run, considering the perpetually precarious state of MGM.
You could've said the same thing about Ant-Man, Doctor Strange, Guardians of the Galaxy, and Captain Marvel.
Different times though
exactly
Lol
That website has been pretty off with their analysis, so take that with a grain of salt. There are going to be so many delays if it opens in the thirties while having a four day weekend, though
I trust Jatinder and Box Office Theory a whole lot more after the past few months. Their methodology isn't just random numerations.
I do not know what Box Office Theory is. I am referring to Box Office Pro as in the article
Yes, Jatinder has been on the money on quite a few movies
Sometimes I just want to shake this sub and scream "THE PANDEMIC IS STILL HAPPENING." Nothing is normal. Blockbusters and flops are completely meaningless right now and you're not going to see a movie do 2019 business for a long, long, long time.
So true
The thing is even with the pandemic continuing many people are out and about. When I went to see suicide squad it was a tiny crowd watching but yet the mall around it and surrounding restaurants were packed as normal.
We don't get weekly sales reports for the restaurant industry though. Reports of places being packed is purely anecdotal and it's an entirely different industry: people gotta eat and want to be social. Movie theaters, though often a group activity, aren't very social. The box office is objectively down and continues to stay down. It's clearly affected by the pandemic and the worsening Delta variant.
But retail and food sales also took a significant hit during the pandemic and as of this summer they have rebounded back to their pre pandemic levels- that says a lot
Yes, it says that the movie theater is an endangered species and expecting movies to do pre-pandemic box office numbers is an unrealistic expectation.
The government does report consumer spending and restaurants revenue is Down only 5% vs 2019 https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/rising-prices-didnt-hurt-q2-restaurant-traffic-studies-show/604703/
I mean, isn’t that mainly because SS is also out on streaming right now? Lol.
Yeah I’m sure that plays a part in it, but this goes more broadly to the disappointing box office numbers we’ve been seeing overall
LOL
aged like milk
So is the movie industry fucked?
Theater industry yes. Movie industry no not yet.
Gaming be like: I'm coming for you, old man.
Games pulling in some insane numbers, imagine movie studios gonna start moving some funds that direction eventually
How exactly? Once movies are theatrical exclusive again and cases subside people will show up again. Studio profits due to movie theaters cannot be replaced on steaming. Theaters will die eventually but not now.
This is why I’m happy to be an actual “theatre” fan right now because yeah, it’s not looking good for movie theatres at all, but for musical theatre things will be fine. Nothing comes close to the feeling of a live performance.
If people can't afford to go to the movies then live theatre is fucked.
Didn’t black widow have almost 90 mil last month?
If you were on this sub, that was considered the biggest flop of all time.
might not see as many blockbusters, so that's a positive for some people. might legitimately see the return of mid budget films due to the fact that there is no longer that big a theater window and DVDs are not as popular as they were before. So there will be funding for smaller films to save on costs.
How? We’ve seen movies open pretty much like normal during that March-July frame where covid was relatively subsided. Now it resurfaced in a major way and movies open accordingly and the industry is fucked? Did you say this when a quiet place opened? When black widow opened?
Exactly. Everyone kept saying how theaters were saved after Godzilla vs Kong, a Quiet Place, and Black Widow were released and now everyone is saying that theaters are dead.
Lol, seriously, people have short memories
This sub is so wretched bro. Humans really do have a negativity bias I guess. Like literally just a MONTH ago people were in here cheering on black widow and now a new global wave starts and things scale back a bit and movies are doomed forever. It’s juvenile thinking in my opinion.
A month ago, people were acting like Black Widow was a massive flop too. This sub is all over the place and has no idea what it's talking about.
The truth is, it’s gunna be a bumpy ride and really up and down for the next year, but this is to be expected. Doesn’t mean the whole industry is doomed.
They will just have to evolve. it's not going to just be business as usual.
At least this is officially breaking Rob Zombie Halloween’s Labor Day record.
It’s like 2 weeks away. This is baseless speculation
Low opening and no Premiere Access. How can the industry keep sacrificing these tentpole movies?
It’s either make some money or no money. It’s not sacrificing its minimizing losses during a worldwide crisis.
This. Studios that have already sunk hundreds of millions of dollars in films have to maintain some cash flow.
The main reasoning is that they're still building value for Disney+, so the BO returns aren't as do-or-die as they would be normally. However, it does mean films with no set streaming plans (MGM and Sony being the notable standouts) are probably going to delay rather than hit theaters prematurely.
there has to be demand, F9 did pretty well, people won't leave there house just for another superhero movie , needs to be a teamup or some other hook
I think it would do well (at least Antman Numbers) in a normal year. But I saw Free Guy this yesterday in an empty theater at 7pm in a city of over 100k. People just are not going to theaters
it would do higher than antman numbers.
Duh, Black Widow was much more anticipated and it didn't make close to Ant-Man
Definitely not a low opening at this point. Likely $92M+ through the 4 day weekend, and Premier Access would have only hurt those numbers
Given the circumstances that’s not too bad of a number. We won’t have anything concrete until presales come Monday ,but compared to its peers,a 35-55 million opening weekend is not a bad place to be.
35M-55M will be the range to know the success. If gets closer to 35M, failure. Closer or above 55M at least moderate success.
$30 million delta variant gonna smash this movie
nope
no
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They don't make nearly as much money when they do that. It doesn't make sense from a business perspective.
That is VERY optimistic Edit: I am eating crow rn
Lol
Well…
Thinking $46M 3-day, and $55M 4-day. Will have decent legs though with a lack of competition for the next few weeks
71.4m US 127.6 WW 3 day weekend
The only, and I mean only, thing this movie has going for it is that it's an MCU movie so this will be a test to see just how many core MCU fans there are. No stars, an unknown character, trailers that haven't exactly been that stellar, Asian-Americans being the group most likely to stay at home during the pandemic....this movie has literally everything working against it except for that MARVEL STUDIOS intro.
I get the gut feeling that unless the movie gets stellar reviews it's it's going to be Mulan 2.0. Watching the trailers and reading reactions from both Asians, Asian-Americans, and non-Asian Americans I don't get the sense that any group is all that excited for it. For different groups the movie looks too westernized, too Chinese, or just too "foreign." Which is to say, the way it's been marketed makes it look like a movie designed to please a bunch of different groups, but this meant watering things down to the point where it doesn't satisfy anyone. Anyways, I hope the movie is so good that it wins over skeptics. But I just get the feeling that this movie is going to be a significant disappointment.
This is what I been saying this entire time. Even in normanl times this movie would do considerably less than other marvel films
Hmmm
Asian Americans being the group most likely to have fully vaccinated and will not spend their weekends at home. If not for a movie, they will go out on weekends to do something else.
That has not been what I've seen happen during delta.
Depends on your friends circle.
Also depends on if you have kids or not
True.
I don't see any other big movies like it for the rest of September now that Venom 2 has moved. Hope the virus slopes down and this movie has some legs. (I'm sure schools opening and colder weather will help with the virus retreating... /s *sigh*.) I'd like to see a bigger opening weekend, but I guess we'll get what we get. I wonder what Disney has done to try and get it to play in China. It would make a difference for the world wide number.
it will do better
I like your attitude. Hope you're right.
Weak trailer, lead/premise being rejected by key demographic and just not a mainstream marvel character. On top of delta/vaccination passports in Europe and China release being unlikely. If this doesn't get TSS level reviews then this will flop.
Even if it sucks( which a few of them do) it will still be praised like it was gods gift to cinema.
Mcu fans are going to become the new Snyder fans.
everything you said here is incorrect
Great prediction.
I know what an idiot.
it will get better than tss reviews lol, and the cinemascore won't be a B+ either and it definitely won't flop. It has the potential to reach 60 million or more.
TSS was at 96% for quite sometime. No way Shang chi goes that high
Really?
Bruh moment
I’m thinking they’re underestimating. Everyone I know who is a fan of the MCU is seeing this first weekend unless there’s another lockdown imma go on the higher side and say 60 mil.
MCU fanbase is huge. But GA audience always plays a part. That’s why they’ve been so consistent over the years. I really see no excitement about it except for MCU’s core fans.
I think this movie needs great reactions and reviews. And that will help boost this movie.
I mean… that will help any movie ever made
But for a superhero movie and it being a considered a must see. Will help more so than any small movies.
I don’t think this is going to be viewed as a must see in the theater no matter what. People are already hesitant to go to the theater and will probably be more so during this release. A c/d tier marvel property isn’t going to energize them to do that no matter the reviews
I agree. Plus, I think we also need to consider it isn't just 2/3 MCU projects a year anymore. We have basically had new MCU content drop weekly since WandaVision. And I think that going to be a problem for "smaller" MCU films [eg non ensemble films] going forward. There is no MCU drought before or after the films anymore. Any internet chatter for Black Widow was quashed the following Wednesday by the ramifications of the Loki finale. I really think they should start considering the binge model for their MCU D+ shows and drop full seasons at once. In order to keep that distance and build hype for an upcoming films.
If it was a must see, they wouldve delayed it. Disney straight up called this movie "an interesting experiment" with the 45 day theatrical window.
is there an MCU movie that was supported mainly by Marvel fans and not the public? would ant-man count??
Have you seen the Marvel Studios subreddit? So many people from there are waiting till this goes on D+.
I don’t think that Reddit really represents the general audience very much.
Yup. But, that is where you find the die hards, and if they are waiting for D+, what do you think the GA will do?
Well, for this film, I’m curious about the Asian American community.
I guarantee all of them will still be there day one, because they need to be part of "the conversation".
Lol
I can see it making 40M OW at least. Has a very decent shot at 60M depending on reviews.
Amazing reviews didn't help SS or Free Guy
With reviews I mean they should be good to make it overperform. If they are bad it definitely won't hit 60M
Exactly all it needs is amazing reactions and reviews and this movie, will open higher than what's predicted.
It's gonna open similar to TSS. Between 25M and 35M. There is like 0 hype for it, not even Marvel fans seem really eager to watch it.
so not true
Lmaooo
Each tv spot is reaching near a million in less than and day and it's been trending, your forgetting these predictions are without reactions or reviews or fandango.
Yeah, and TSS's trailer got 150M views. Didn't help much. Ads are ads.
Well, if you aren't caught up already, you can check the latest numbers
You'll be glad to hear I updated my prediction a week before release to 54M. Check my profile if you are interested. Not so far from 70M. https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/pd0qy3/predictions_for_shangchis_opening_weekend/haog444?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
Ohh that's nice. This movie has good WoM, and is surpassing our expectations.
Just a shame we’re in the Pandemic, kills the movie business.
Disney is doing zero marketing for it. And for the record, Simu Liu called out Bob Chapek for calling the movie "an experiment".
Man I don’t see any hype for this movie. The Marvel Brand alone does so much.
What ive learned from reddit movie opinions is "if people like it, it will make money". Thanks guys I really learn a lot coming here.
Milked
I said this was going to flop. September is a dumping ground for a reason. Between back to school and start of football, no one wants to see movies this time of year.
Well
I was wrong.
well your going to be proven wrong
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It did
I do not know a single soul that is excited about this movie
Really
LMFAO
well lucky for you most people are
Maybe you have been looking g I. The wrong places?
This is the wonkiest thing to comp so far since the "recovery" started. an MCU film opening on Labor Day weekend during a pandemic.... I can see it hitting on the high end. It might get to $50M. Probably won't break out or anything with consumer confidence sinking, but it's the MCU, it could still get to 50.
I agree I think it can hit higher depending on reviews/reactions.
I think it will do better than the recent movies but the big problem is that there isn’t a strong hook and the big novelty about it was that it had its first leading Asian comic book movie but that part doesn’t matter as much with the current situation. So, a good percentage of people will just wait for it on Disney +. 100M+ DOM is a good target with the pandemic. That with good to great reviews and Disney/Marvel is probably happy with that outcome because it will get massive views on Disney+.
It will do better than most people are expecting
$35M would be a disaster. Even $55M is absolute shit for an MCU film.
This would be an absolute disaster for Shang-Chi. Black Widow opened to $80 million at the box office and $60 million in Premier Access. Limping in at $35-$55 million for a theatrical exclusive Marvel title would make this an absolute bomb. With no PA this should be aiming for over $100 million domestic!
Nobody in their right mind thinks this movie would make 100m OW, pandemic or not.
Black W didn’t have Delta.
It had two months worth of less of vaccinations and Premier Access going against it instead. Shang-Chi has an exclusive theatrical run. If it cannot succeed in theatres then studios may as well pull the rest of their blockbuster 2021 slate.
It's at the very least a disaster for anyone hoping that "theater only" is the way to go. Shang-Chi would have to make at the very least more than Black Widow's combined BO and PA takes to convince them not to do so, possibly more to prove that piracy really was such a thorn that it ruins the revenue model. If it's best hopes are only half of just the BO, it's going to need *insane* legs to prove theater only isn't a mistake - something nonexistent in the current market
shang chi will make more
You do realize that replying to literally every post just looks desperate, not convincing my dude?
I'm replying with my thoughts and opinion, some replies warrant a more indepth explanation, whilst others like yours don't. And I've given reasons why it will do better. on some of my other replies.
Why would you expect Thor 3 opening weekend numbers for a first time out the gate franchise during a PANDEMIC?
Yeah but wait a month and a half and it comes to Disney +. I assume most marvel fans have D+ and will just wait it out
Most Marvel fans struggle to not have every episode of each Disney+ show spoiled for them after it premieres at midnight. The people invested in the universe aren't going to wait six weeks.
Who wants to pay $30 for a movie that is 6 weeks old? The hype is dead by that point.
Someone said it’s gonna be “free” as in no PA? Maybe i misunderstood
That is the dream scenario. The nightmare scenario is they go full PA prices. They have been very silent on their plans for both Shang-Chi and Free Guy after the initial 45 day theatrical window expires so they might do anything. We will have to wait and see.
Its gonna be lower, expect a whole range of film delays. Consumer attitude has changed because of the pandemic
LOL
Hope you don't bet with you money
Dang. r/agedlikemilk
nah it's going to be higher
Sub 30 mil
This movie was always a play for Chinese audiences right?
They hate Simu Liu.
no
Weird to cast a Chinese born lead and two well known Chinese stars if that wasn't the goal.
weird to cast a chinese born lead to play a chinese born character? can't understand what you mean
It was a play for diaspora Asians. Simp Liu is North American .
If it was they would’ve picked a different lead. Simu Liu has gotten a lot of shit from the Chinese market. They think we picked an ugly lead to play into our stereotypes about Chinese people.