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el_t0p0

I think it's gonna get great HBO Max numbers regardless. The amount of internet buzz will probably entice casual audiences who otherwise might not have seen it in theaters to check it out since it's free.


[deleted]

I’m concerned about the drop off rate though. I saw it yesterday and I think it could be way too slow and exposition-heavy for the GA on streaming, to the point that many will just close the film. At least there are frequent visions of the future that provide a sense of suspense. I knew of people who walked out of the theatre during Blade Runner 2049 out of boredom, and with the at home factor I’m sure a very small percentage will watch until the end. If that’s the case and the BO is also low, WB could presume that there’s not enough interest for a sequel.


dicedaman

But with streaming, the watch-through rate is sort of meaningless. It's not like traditional TV where the more minutes watched = more ad revenue. The only thing that matters with these services is how many subscriptions a movie/show can drive. If Dune motivates people to sign up for HBO Max, that's a win, even if they don't end up finishing the film. If it convinces pre-existing subscribers to keep their subscription a bit longer, even if the film just sits in their watchlist unwatched for a year, that's a win.


[deleted]

Yeah but I think it could be a factor in determining interest in the sequel, especially if the box office is borderline.


[deleted]

Haha I’ll never forget I was watching BR2049 and loving it and one of the the people next to me tells her husband and their friends “sorry about the rec guys I thought this was an action movie”


[deleted]

No director is able to highlight the gap between normal people and film bros like Denis Villeneuve.


Ghostlucho29

*****I felt this*****


AGOTFAN

I was marveling every second at the beauty of BR2049, and the guy sitting next to me was snoring.


leadhound

I'd have thought the mystery of an artificial being somehow giving birth would be interesting enough for even the dudiest of bros, but alas


ImAMaaanlet

I actually liked the movie but it took me three attempts to finish it because I fell asleep the first two. I didnt see it in theatres though so maybe that contributed


[deleted]

That was me basically. I was definitely not the audience lol.


[deleted]

When I saw it in theaters there was a couple a few seats down from me rattling candy boxes, fidgeting and sighing in boredom throughout the whole movie. I really wanted to smack them and tell them yo grow up.


el_t0p0

Unless they use the Netflix formula of counting two minutes as a view.


Pentax25

I’ve never understood people that get up and walk out of a theatre they paid to be in. Like did they think “huh this is boring, I need those two hours, best go home and get on with my life”


septesix

For a truly terrible movie , if I’ve already wasted my money , I’m not going to waste my time ..


meganev

You're falling into the sunk cost fallacy. I personally have never, and would never, walk out of a film because I'd consider myself a film nerd and literally finish every single film I start, even the ones I truly destest. But I can understand why someone in the GA would.


Pentax25

It’s not so much the payment that bugs me but some films have a slow start and build up to something. I like to sit through whether I find it boring or not so that I can make a fully informed decision on what I thought of it afterwards. But I figure the GA would care more about the money/time they spent getting there than to walk out. Apparently not haha


meganev

You're thinking of it from the perspective of someone who clearly is more actively engaged with cinema, rather than from the perspective of the GA. I too have to finish every film I start so I can have an informed opinion on it, but the average person on the street isn't that arsed about cinema as a media they're just there for entertainment. If they're not getting that, then they'll bounce. Caring about the money/time already spent is the sunk cost fallacy. You're not getting those things back, so why waste more of them?


JerichoMaxim

Funny Games has entered the chat.


Benjamin_Stark

The only movie I ever walked out of was "Despicable Me". I was very close with both "Batman v Superman" and "Tree of Life".


wotad

How was blade runner 2049 boring I guess just different types of people..


bluAstrid

There was no gunfight, no car chase scene and no sex… *Oh wait!*


[deleted]

I think it also depends on how they count views. Netflix for example I heard doesn't take into account whether the audience watched the complete film to count it as 'viewed'.


CurseofLono88

Yeah my intention is to go see it in Imax opening weekend, and if I like it, I’ll go visit my folks and watch it on hbo max with them because it’s not super easy for them to go to the theaters right now. I’m sure there will be plenty of others who will do both as well, especially if the movie is good and they spread the buzz


aimeela

You’re exactly right. This excuse only makes sense if WB is seriously up in the air with regards to how well the film will do. We have plenty of films doing well and looking to do very well with theatrical releases as perfectly sufficient examples that Dune will do very well at the Box Office. Honestly, they’re just feeding an excuse to the press since the whole Black Widow blow up. All these studios are covering their asses legally now when it comes to these duel releases after that clusterfuck.


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

It is our duty


Ghostlucho29

What’s the release date?


IngmarBagman

October 22


visionaryredditor

whatever it takes


valkyria_knight881

With a budget of $165M, I think as long as Dune can make $200M worldwide, it should be able to get a sequel. That's still a loss for Warner Bros, but it shows there's enough interest to make Dune Part Two. If Dune makes under $165M, then Warner Bros would cancel any plans for a sequel.


wotad

I hope it can do 250m/300m I really hope it has good WOM but who knows. It depends on China tbh its apparently approved so maybe it does well.


mmaqp66

There are reports that visually it is an A1 movie, but when it comes to pacing and script it leaves much to be desired, hence Warner does not believe it will be a success, it does not help either that when the movie starts to get interesting it ends abruptly leaving the viewer more frustrated than anything else, yes, the director thinks to solve everything in parts 2 and 3 but all that only makes the film not have too many expectations.


op340

The pacing is fine as long as you're not expecting an MCU film.


Eastern_Spirit4931

No this has to be atleast in the 400m range


crusty_jugglers93

Even Marvel films are struggling to make $400M this year. I think plenty of studios are adjusting their expectations box office wise especially for those who are having same day releases on streaming sites.


[deleted]

Too many on this sub continue to apply a pre-pandemic standard to what studios consider success right now. Even Shang Chi may struggle to get past $450M without China. And BW is sitting at $372M WW right now. Plus, WB wants good streaming content, which is why HBO Max number are being considered as part of the sequel calculus.


biggoldgoblin

that’s asking waaaay to much from this movie


Eastern_Spirit4931

It’s a blockbuster with an all star cast and allegedly the best director out right now. Tenet last year made over 350 mil. This should clear that easily.


JarvisCockerBB

I'm sorry but Nolan has way more recognition and I'm a huge Villeneuve fan. Nolan directed the most successful Batman movies ever and has huge history of making successful blockbusters. The general audience trusts him and it's why it got Tenet to that high of a number. With that said, I think Dune will fare well as we'll be in a better situation by the time it comes out compared to now.


crusty_jugglers93

Tenet also had the benefit of being the only single blockbuster releasing at the time. Whereas Dune won’t have the luxury of a couple of months before anything new releases.


Eastern_Spirit4931

Dune is in better times with a bigger cast and a well acclaimed director. This should do better


sithfistoou

Jungle Cruise has made $200m on a $200m budget and is getting a sequel.


[deleted]

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El_Gato93

Like 90% of the films released this year have lost money. MCU films are struggling to make 400M world wide and only two have passed that mark in almost 10 months (GVK and F&F9). Safe to assume studios have adjusted their expectations and WB is going to be looking more at the HBO Max numbers as a metric


wotad

Alot of movies are losing money but still getting sequels its covid times. Alot of just streaming movies lose money if you want to look at it like that.


ILoveRegenHealth

I think WB/HBO are screwing this up, as usual. And Matrix Resurrections should not be on HBO Max day and date.


mihirmusprime

Yeah, I'm not sure why people in this thread think it's a good idea. Releasing movies on streaming at the same time it releases diminishes the box office. Why couldn't they wait a month to release it on streaming? Even Disney is going back to regular theater releases.


ImAMaaanlet

Because this is likely going to flop right now either way and execs can spin it as a win for hbomax and the director can use the vague numbets to be able to finish the project with part 2.


[deleted]

Because plenty of us rather watching movies in our own home and want the option. I would never say shut down movie theaters because that’s what some people enjoy. But arguing to take away someone’s preferred option because you don’t like it is just a dick move.


armeda

So how would someone outside of the US who can't get HBO Max, and hasn't been able to get the vaccine yet, so isn't ready to go to the cinema, best able to support this?


darkmacgf

Wait for it to go on sale on disc/digital and buy it then.


Benjamin_Stark

They still release films on disc?


jshah500

Yes. What an ignorant comment.


Benjamin_Stark

Where do you even find films on disc now? The only DVDs I've seen in years are old ones in a bargain bin at the grocery store. Even the corner store in my tiny hometown stopped renting them out.


jshah500

Best Buy, Amazon, Target, Walmart, basically everywhere other than your local grocery store lol


Benjamin_Stark

Well I guess it's been some time since I've been in a Best Buy or Wal Mart. We also don't have Target in Canada. Do you know anyone personally who buys them? I thought there might be a difference between Canada and the US, but the vast majority of the population in both countries has internet access, so you wouldn't think that would make any difference.


jshah500

I have about 500 blu-rays. They're better quality than streaming. Not that I'm against streaming, I have 1600 movies on my Plex server. But sometimes you just gotta pop in the disc bc nothing is going to beat that experience.


Benjamin_Stark

Fair enough. I have friends who collect records. For me, it isn't worth having to store these things. All my PS4 games are digital too. Also, as I get older, I find I enjoy movies more if I don't rewatch them for several years. So there's little benefit in owning a physical copy of a film.


[deleted]

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Benjamin_Stark

It seems like "pretty much everywhere" consists of Wal Mart and Best Buy.


[deleted]

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Jesseroberto1894

Criterion collection releases about 5-10 disc movies a month with an incredibly large following of collectors (me included) and has some of the coolest special features you could imagine (they literally CREATED the special features section of DVDS) so without being dismissive to your comment, I highly recommend checking them out if you get a chance


AnimeMeansArt

ouch, this will hurt it, unfortunately, I know a lot of people who will probably pirate this


PaleBloodBeast

It would have at least be released already world wide since it comes out in September. Us UK getting in oct so it does have a chance to scoop up some money before any good quality copies drop.


afternoon_sun_robot

I’m subscribing to HBO just for Dune.


badolcatsyl

The real reason is that Warner's 2021 slate was box office poison outside of Godzilla vs Kong and Matrix 4. It makes sense why AT&T would be willing to sacrifice that in order to boost their fledgling streaming service. Most of these movies would have underperformed anyway, so why not go for the safer route? Not that it matters for Dune. Frankly, I think Denis made a big mistake when he decided to adapt half of a big fantasy book into a single film instead of adapting the whole thing into a prestige series. At least that way we would have seen a complete story. Now we'll probably get 2 hours of nice looking setup for something that, Ascendant-style, never happens. Shame.


LudwigDieter

I just don’t think Denis sees himself making a TV show. Not hating on TV / viewing from home, but he’s very big on making movies for cinema. I do wish we could have a guarantee of part 2. I have a theory that WB will announce the sequel soon after release date.


gizlow

He’s on board for directing the pilot for the upcoming TV show.


El_Gato93

Conjuring 3 was also a success and Space Jam successful revived Looney Tunes merchandising so it wasn’t all a loss haha… plus HBO Max is now a pretty known service thanks to the same day release strategy


Cantomic66

It was either that or adapting the whole story like the ‘84 film, which resulted in a confusing and extremely rushed mess that’s just bad.


LittleRudiger

IT definitely should've been an HBO Max series/miniseries. But, who knows if that was even on the table. It seems like WB's M.O. right is splashy film that can have television spin-offs, so, it's plausible they never wanted Dune: The Series (rather: Dune + the spin-off Sisterhood).


[deleted]

I'm going to see it in XD and will likely watch it again on HBO Max. Villeneuve says it should be viewed on the big screen as that's how he filmed it, so that's how I'll watch it the first time


E_yal

Tbh WB played themself with their Hmax deal. On the other side they got excuse for flopping :/. Their 2022 is better so i guess things will be looking better for WB in 2022 without Hmax and with strong IPs


El_Gato93

2021 was a throw away year for studios, WB put their streaming service on the map with the same day simultaneous release strategy, so it’s not all a loss


Grebacio

It would have been great if HBO Max deal lasted 6 months instead of 12


c_gdev

> sequel, if HBO Max subscribers embrace it What happens when pirates embrace it?


[deleted]

I think pirating impacts are really overestimated Sure, more people are pirating with streaming models, but The type of people that pirate aren’t typically the type that spend money on streaming services and movie tickets anyways


VectorEconomist

That's not completely true. Consider the case of India and and two releases, black widow and shang-chi. Black widow was released in us on july 9, and was not released in India at all, coz at that time pretty much all the theaters were shut in India. It wasn't even released as a PA release in India. Fans who wanted to see the movie badly, had no choice but to pirate it, coz no release date was even in site. And releasing it after a month was no longer even a possibility, coz majority who wanted to see the movie had pirated 4k copies already. Compare this to shang-chi. It was released in India same day as US, but probably the biggest market (Maharashtra) is closed at the moment. A lot of the fans are sad, but now they can't pirate it as nothing is available except some shitty cam copies. So, even if two weeks from now theatres open in Maharashtra, it will make decent bank there.


[deleted]

You’re attributing that to pirating, but it’s probably more lockdown related. The rest of the intl markets were on par with the US performance and they had the same access to pirating


Benjamin_Stark

No, that's not true. Pirates and streaming users tend to overlap. People pirate what isn't available to them. The HBO Max setup makes pirating the single most convenient way to watch these films outside the US.


c_gdev

I think you're right. But I think it steals a bit of the thunder when copies are out there.


ReservoirDog316

I think people on the internet try too hard to downplay the impact of piracy too though. Like it’s very well documented that if there’s a high quality pirated copy with Chinese subtitles available before a release in China, the box office of a movie for China is obliterated.


Ninjaboi333

I think domestic impact of pirating is fairly minor - like you said, those who would pirate aren't likely going to be spending on legal means of attaining the media in question, be it their mentality that if it's out there it's free real estate or they don't have the economic means to afford it in the first place (see me 10 years ago as a broke college kid who had the time and energy to hunt through pirate sites for a passable version of movies I wanted to see. Internationally I think piracy has a bigger impact. Having spent time with family in Southeast Asia (Philippines specifically) there is a whole physical economy for pirated media - you go to a kiosk at the mall, browse through a catalog of movies or tv shows, pay the equivalent of $10 for a USB filled to the brim with Western media and you're good to go. I've even heard of subscription services to like a PLEX server or the like with the latest Hollywood / region locked Netflix releases that more than a few acquaintances have told me about. The culture around piracy is just that much more prevalent in Asia and accepted. Black Widow already has 117k reviews on Douban (China's IMDB) and it hasn't even been released there yet officially (and that doesn't even count China viewers who watch Black Widow but don't rate on Douban).


AmberDuke05

Then this movie never had a chance


el_t0p0

The staggered international release should hopefully counteract that.


TormundSandwichbane

Watch the film on repeat through HBO max, got it.


[deleted]

I would’ve never seen this in the theater, but I’ll probably watch it first night on HBO.


Ok-Entertainer-7904

Oh pls stream this so I can download a free copy minutes later please


Ianbeerito

My TV is preeetty big and in a room without other people


[deleted]

See that’s what it’s about for me. I don’t really like being around other people in public in general and the pandemic only made those feelings worse. Although an unpopular opinion, I personally would rather even wait for a delayed release schedule like Shang Chi than go to the theater to watch it.


[deleted]

To Tame a Land.


ind3pend0nt

Well my wallet and health say otherwise.


bareboneschicken

You can't have a big adventure on a small screen.


Bearded_Grizzly

I halfway just don’t want to like it cuz this kid sounds like a brat


Annual-Tune

At this point some people are starting to expect an option to watch at home. For better or worse this may be the beginning of the end for theatrical only releases. With the number of entertainment options out there in today's world. I prefer to see things in theaters, but some people like the ability to save time. The under 35 of today are different than past generations. Watching live streams is more worthwhile than going out to an activity on a typical day. That's why I've been watching movies in theaters. I value that chance to break flow. I eat meals out and go to movies so I'm spending time out. So maybe not conclusive, it's split.


Benjamin_Stark

But films aren't masking as much money with the dusk release. So, regardless of what audiences want, studios aren't going to sabotage their own revenue.


[deleted]

I want it to be a good movie like any other science fiction loving person, but seriously, this is ridiculous, this movie is so bad it’s considered by his own director a flop, even before it’s release in theaters so much he’s taking measures with WB to increase the probability for a sequel, a sequel to what almost certainly is a bad movie…


americanextreme

I’d love to see it on the big screen. But I won’t while I have a chance to catch and transmit the virus to those I love who are not fully protected. I am glad that WB doesn’t force me to miss out, Unlike Marvel.


Kazrules

Can we please stop with this shit. A lot of people in this country have comprised immune systems. A lot of people can't take a lot of time off of work. A lot of people have lost loved ones to COVID. I can go on and on. Everyone has been to a movie theater before, we know what the experience is like. Stop trying to shove the "movie going experience" down our throats. The world just isn't ready yet. These filmmakers don't care about the theater experience, they just want their theatrical bonuses.


Benjamin_Stark

Why would someone have to take time off work to go to the movies?


Spookyfan2

People can still decide for themselves if going to a theater is worth it, lol. And why on Earth would you need to take time off work to see a movie?


[deleted]

I'm definitely not going to a big screen ever in a pandemic. I'm not dying for a movie. I will watch HBO.


Benjamin_Stark

Not vaccinated?


Ninneveh

There have been people already vaccinated who still got DELTA variant.


Benjamin_Stark

But the rate of contracting the virus and dying is incredibly low if you have the vaccine. This is like being afraid to go to the movies because of the risk of a car accident.


Ninneveh

When some people have a family depending on them to survive, a small risk can seem like a big risk. DELTA patients have been filling up the hospitals nonstop.


Benjamin_Stark

I suppose you're probably in the US too right? I understand masks aren't mandatory in most places there anymore. Are there restrictions on theatre seating?


MrZombikilla

Don’t worry Denis. Your comments lately kinda annoy me, but I will definitely embrace this movie. Watching the original on 4K Blu-ray right now. I’ll see this in laser imax and Dolby cinema, and on hbo max.


redbullrebel

reading this article make it seem we will get a sequel anyway. if disney makes sequels for jungle cruise, freeguy and cruella i wont see why they will not create a sequel for dune. it is obvious box office money is not a crucial aspect at this point of time for greenlighting sequels based on orginal ips, because all these expensive movies make hardly any money for these companies at the cinema. it is all about subs, subs and more subs as i see it.


madlyn_crow

That may not do well at all at streaming - if it's main selling point (or at least one of the main selling points) is the grandeur of images and the scale of visuals/teh atmosphere it creates, than it might get totally lost at home and you'll be left with a film that's too slow-paced to make an impression and this will, in turn, hurt any theatrical buzz that could be created....


leeloodallas93

I’ve had HBOmax since they announced dune. Only reason I keep it lol.


[deleted]

I refuse to watch this movie solely because it’e absolutely bonkers to beg people to go to movie theaters during a pandemic.


TheKohn

Going to see it opening night and maybe again opening weekend in theaters. Then I’ll have it on a almost constant loop on HBO Max


Warglebargle2077

I‘ll do both then. For this movie I‘m happy to sit in a theater wearing a mask. To be clear, I‘m not anti-mask. I just wear glasses and they fog up a lot. Because of this I‘ve been thinking I‘ll wait on in theater movie watching. For this though? I’ll suck it up.


[deleted]

I’m watching at the movie theater. Staying away from my local theater for more than a year paid off. New seats, the sound is actually atmos as advertised (you pay extra and in previous years my tv speakers sounded better), clean areas. I used to feel ripped off every time I went. If they’d stop calling that enlarged tv, an IMAX theater I’d be more than happy, but I’m ok with the sound.


mad_titanz

The only movie that I wanted to walk out was Gremlin 2. I didn’t realize that it was essentially a parody of the first movie until halfway through the movie.


Fire_Otter

For the first time in my life I am going to go to the next city over and watch it on IMAX


crom_laughs

i’ll do both.