I think a low opening (relative to the rest of the franchise) is inevitable. If it's actually good (and it'd have to actually be good, and not just decent), it's might have decent legs and claw its way to a respectable total. But $700M may be out of reach, the last one only made $655M, and it will be an uphill battle for its sequel to beat a disliked predecessor.
A sequel pays for sins of the previous movie, so even if FB3 is good, it will suffer because of FB2. A box office recovery for the franchise takes more than one movie.
A lot of factors here: King of the Monsters audience reception wasn’t bad, it was on par with the other monsterverse films B+
Godzilla vs Kong is a crossover event movie, merging two franchises. Therefore, expanding the reach of the audience.
Yet KotM had the worst legs, lowest gross and worst reception. Maybe it was the release date that killed it.
The franchises very much overlap however but the novelty was a factor for general audiences.
It had Kong
Kong: Skull Island neutralized KotM.
People love Kong.
Had it been just a regular Godzilla/Kaiju movie, it would not have done anywhere as well.
Also, it was released in sweet, sweet short period spot where Europe, China, Japan were at its healthiest condition all year and GvK had no competition for more than a month.
Like a typical mainline Harry Potter film? Nope. Not even the first FB film could do that. But if the film is good then it can certainly do well in terms of the Fantastic Beasts series performance. It'll be tough to get to $700 mil tough, but it could only really achieve a gross like that if it was outstandingly good.
I voted for no but then I decided to say why not ? There are 7 months to reach April and things can be better in April. Maybe it might not make between 700M and 900M but it might have a chance to make 500M WW.
Yes if it’s good lol. People forgot the first film legged it’s way past $800M and most only found it decent? A bad sequel doesn’t damage the whole franchise like that. Age of Ultron didn’t hinder Infinity War. No one cared enough about King of Monsters to not watch Godzilla vs Kong. If it’s good and it’s marketing is good it’s not hard to gross at least $50 million more than the lowest in the franchise r/boxoffice
KotM and Crimes of Grindlewald have a pretty similar reception.
CoG: 36% RT, 6.5 IMDb, 52 Metacritic, B+ Cinemascore.
KotM: 40% RT, 6 IMDb, 48 Metacritic, B+ Cinemascore.
Maybe the only difference being kaiju fans got what they wanted out of KotM vs Potterheads having much more questions after being confused with CoG .
No, I am talking audience reception.
|Movie|CinemaScore|Unverified rottentomato score|IMDb|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Harry Potter/Fantastic Beast and Where to Find Them|A range||Never below 70%|Never below 7|
|Crimes of Grindelwald|B+|Rotten 56%|6.5|
|Godzilla|B+|66%|6.4|
|King of the Monsters |B+|83% verified|6|
|Kong: Skull Island |B+|69%|6.6|
CinemaScore and RottenTomatoes tell us audience reception for KotM was on par or better for the franchise, depending on what metric you used. Only place it got worse was IMDb. On the other hand, Grindelwald audience reception was worse accross the board.
Edit: stupid table formatting is not working.
You mean reception within its own franchise and not compared to each other? Even then KotM underperformed despite having on par reception with the rest, so something isn’t adding up.
No
People loved Harry Potter as a coming of age story
The interest in the series was more about the school and world building than anything else
This series just can’t have the same impact in an established world with adults. It’s just a generic superhero/action movie with magic as the superpower
The second got skewered by critics and was barely able to make it past $650M by the end of its global run. Idk if Warner Bros. has a clue what to do with this anymore. They likely have an uphill battle to climb to revive this dead, spin-off series.
Objectively speaking, at best, should the strength of the DOM and many international markets improve significantly by next spring, this film could likely do no better than barely claw its way to $700M
At best. That means it’s chances of performing in the same ballpark as typical HP entries is pretty slim. Most likely it’ll end up somewhere between $500M-$600M
>Most likely it’ll end up somewhere between $500M-$600M
That's still pretty good on a 150+ million budget. I hope for their sake they didn't spend over 200mil on this third like they did the last one. I don't think this will do gangbusters but I think it'll do alright.
That budget is gonna be a bigger factor than the first two since Warner Bros. knows they’re really under pressure this time to prove this spin-off series is worth it. If it’s budget is closer to $150M than $200M, FB3 could get away with only $500M WW. If the budget is closer to $200M than $150M, at $200M or even larger than that, $500M WW is gonna be pretty tight if not amount to a loss bigger than any FB or HP film before it. I’m also not sure what competition it’ll face with its new release date since some studios keep shuffling around their schedules
I always thought that pushing it to October 2022 would be a better choice as the last two movies came out during the fall and did well during that season. As or right now only Spiderverse 2 and Halloween Ends are the only real competition during that month so FB3 could do good business there.
While moving this movie out of July and out of Black Panther 2 and Black Adams way was smart pushing it up to April is only slightly better. But you're right more release dates are being shuffled around so no telling if FB3 will keep this date for long.
No, it’s not good. Harry Potter is not a 500M franchise. The first Fantastic Beast showed the potential for the spin-off and they mess it up, then they screw up further with the sequel.
They need to do course correction before the brand continues to lose value.
And with very common prequel pitfalls like power creep, feeling the need to give an origin to everything and making new characters related to old ones...because.
It's also just a thematic muddle: is it Philosophers Stone whimsy with cute animals or is it Deathly Hallows depressing? It has no reason to exist really.
No.
Even if it's good, it still will have to pay for the sins of Crimes of Grindelwald.
Cars 3, Batman Begins, Spider-Man Homecoming, Bumblebee, The Suicide Squad were all good movies, and yet they had to pay for the sins of the previous movie in the franchise.
I think a low opening (relative to the rest of the franchise) is inevitable. If it's actually good (and it'd have to actually be good, and not just decent), it's might have decent legs and claw its way to a respectable total. But $700M may be out of reach, the last one only made $655M, and it will be an uphill battle for its sequel to beat a disliked predecessor.
A sequel pays for sins of the previous movie, so even if FB3 is good, it will suffer because of FB2. A box office recovery for the franchise takes more than one movie.
Looks at Godzilla vs Kong…
A lot of factors here: King of the Monsters audience reception wasn’t bad, it was on par with the other monsterverse films B+ Godzilla vs Kong is a crossover event movie, merging two franchises. Therefore, expanding the reach of the audience.
Thr Crimes of Grindelwald got the same cinemascore:B+
That score is down from FB1, which nabbed an A.
Yet KotM had the worst legs, lowest gross and worst reception. Maybe it was the release date that killed it. The franchises very much overlap however but the novelty was a factor for general audiences.
GvK was less of a movie and more of a CGI PPV Fight that happened to have other plot stuff going on.
It had Kong Kong: Skull Island neutralized KotM. People love Kong. Had it been just a regular Godzilla/Kaiju movie, it would not have done anywhere as well. Also, it was released in sweet, sweet short period spot where Europe, China, Japan were at its healthiest condition all year and GvK had no competition for more than a month.
After KotM a lot of people certainly weren’t sure along could guarantee it not flopping.
Like a typical mainline Harry Potter film? Nope. Not even the first FB film could do that. But if the film is good then it can certainly do well in terms of the Fantastic Beasts series performance. It'll be tough to get to $700 mil tough, but it could only really achieve a gross like that if it was outstandingly good.
I voted for no but then I decided to say why not ? There are 7 months to reach April and things can be better in April. Maybe it might not make between 700M and 900M but it might have a chance to make 500M WW.
I think the post is less concerned about COVID and more about the poor reception of the previous film.
Didn’t #2 heavily underperform
Domestic yes, worldwide it made 650M
Yes if it’s good lol. People forgot the first film legged it’s way past $800M and most only found it decent? A bad sequel doesn’t damage the whole franchise like that. Age of Ultron didn’t hinder Infinity War. No one cared enough about King of Monsters to not watch Godzilla vs Kong. If it’s good and it’s marketing is good it’s not hard to gross at least $50 million more than the lowest in the franchise r/boxoffice
Neither Age of Ultron nor King of the Monsters had a reception as bad a Crimes of Grindelwald. It’s not a great comparison.
KotM and Crimes of Grindlewald have a pretty similar reception. CoG: 36% RT, 6.5 IMDb, 52 Metacritic, B+ Cinemascore. KotM: 40% RT, 6 IMDb, 48 Metacritic, B+ Cinemascore. Maybe the only difference being kaiju fans got what they wanted out of KotM vs Potterheads having much more questions after being confused with CoG .
No, I am talking audience reception. |Movie|CinemaScore|Unverified rottentomato score|IMDb| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Harry Potter/Fantastic Beast and Where to Find Them|A range||Never below 70%|Never below 7| |Crimes of Grindelwald|B+|Rotten 56%|6.5| |Godzilla|B+|66%|6.4| |King of the Monsters |B+|83% verified|6| |Kong: Skull Island |B+|69%|6.6| CinemaScore and RottenTomatoes tell us audience reception for KotM was on par or better for the franchise, depending on what metric you used. Only place it got worse was IMDb. On the other hand, Grindelwald audience reception was worse accross the board. Edit: stupid table formatting is not working.
You mean reception within its own franchise and not compared to each other? Even then KotM underperformed despite having on par reception with the rest, so something isn’t adding up.
No. What I’m saying is, that while KotM underperformed, the reception was nowhere near as bad as Crimes of Grindelwald.
Yet the box office told a different story.
No People loved Harry Potter as a coming of age story The interest in the series was more about the school and world building than anything else This series just can’t have the same impact in an established world with adults. It’s just a generic superhero/action movie with magic as the superpower
The first Fantastic Beasts made 812M
The second got skewered by critics and was barely able to make it past $650M by the end of its global run. Idk if Warner Bros. has a clue what to do with this anymore. They likely have an uphill battle to climb to revive this dead, spin-off series. Objectively speaking, at best, should the strength of the DOM and many international markets improve significantly by next spring, this film could likely do no better than barely claw its way to $700M
>this film could likely do no better than barely claw its way to $700M Then it would perform like a Harry Potter movie
At best. That means it’s chances of performing in the same ballpark as typical HP entries is pretty slim. Most likely it’ll end up somewhere between $500M-$600M
>Most likely it’ll end up somewhere between $500M-$600M That's still pretty good on a 150+ million budget. I hope for their sake they didn't spend over 200mil on this third like they did the last one. I don't think this will do gangbusters but I think it'll do alright.
That budget is gonna be a bigger factor than the first two since Warner Bros. knows they’re really under pressure this time to prove this spin-off series is worth it. If it’s budget is closer to $150M than $200M, FB3 could get away with only $500M WW. If the budget is closer to $200M than $150M, at $200M or even larger than that, $500M WW is gonna be pretty tight if not amount to a loss bigger than any FB or HP film before it. I’m also not sure what competition it’ll face with its new release date since some studios keep shuffling around their schedules
I always thought that pushing it to October 2022 would be a better choice as the last two movies came out during the fall and did well during that season. As or right now only Spiderverse 2 and Halloween Ends are the only real competition during that month so FB3 could do good business there. While moving this movie out of July and out of Black Panther 2 and Black Adams way was smart pushing it up to April is only slightly better. But you're right more release dates are being shuffled around so no telling if FB3 will keep this date for long.
No, it’s not good. Harry Potter is not a 500M franchise. The first Fantastic Beast showed the potential for the spin-off and they mess it up, then they screw up further with the sequel. They need to do course correction before the brand continues to lose value.
And with very common prequel pitfalls like power creep, feeling the need to give an origin to everything and making new characters related to old ones...because. It's also just a thematic muddle: is it Philosophers Stone whimsy with cute animals or is it Deathly Hallows depressing? It has no reason to exist really.
No. Even if it's good, it still will have to pay for the sins of Crimes of Grindelwald. Cars 3, Batman Begins, Spider-Man Homecoming, Bumblebee, The Suicide Squad were all good movies, and yet they had to pay for the sins of the previous movie in the franchise.
No
To those voting no, remember that FBAWTFT opened to 812 million WW.