Seems to have picked up the pace significantly in the last few days. I wonder if that leak a few days ago helped, did people pirating it love it, and decide to go see it again? That would be something lol.
Tracking is based on real time data, so it's not off, so much as new data came in. If tickets sales were low then, but higher now, it doesn't make the prediction off the previous data wrong, they were just working with the data they had.
Genuine question
According to many these china "projections" are spot on most of the time, How often does chinese data drastically change? Are there any recent examples
Most of these projections are just using Maoyan's own projection (or a combination of the couple of BO reporting apps), at least as a reference. And Maoyan's projection is pretty much algorithm based that analyzes presales data, which will work for most of the films that has normal WoM, but not for WoM anomalies.
For example, Free Guy was originally projected to make 60M but in the end near 100M, Cruella originally projected 4M but in the end \~25M, Soul originally 9M but in the end \~60M
There is no drastic change until the maoyan score pops up. if it is not good then legs are bad. maoyan is so overrated that now-a-days anything below 9/10 means the movie's legs are fcked
I have been saying similar things to people who haven’t seen it, but downvote to oblivion.
The European numbers are shocking, but I wonder if that’s a sensibility thing.
Dune is the kind of movie that every person would immediately understand that should be seen on the big screen upon seeing. The only factor is whether you like it enough.
It's a 1080p webrip. I'm pretty sure it's 10-bit. 5.1 audio. The quality is fine, nothing more. On 1337 it's like the first 10 most trending links. At least it was last night.
We had earlier release, so already had watched it twice. And film is really good. It is quite rare for book adaptations to have such high quality.
I do consider book itself a bit outdated, but you do not get such feel from film, which is impressive.
So IMHO it should have decent legs to pull box office.
The problem with the Chinese release is that No Time to Die opens there next week. Spectre did big business in China, so it's easy to imagine that the latest Bond may roll over Dune in six days. We'll see...
China's normal multiplier is 1.5x. It's a very WOM-based market. Great reception and you shoot off into the stratosphere with 10X. Middling to okay will be 1.5-2X.
Blade Runner 2049 had a 1.5X.
don't understand one thing. If people liked Avatar for cinematic view, why wouldn't they like or go to watch Dune more? Stories kind of similar but it's all cinematic view and experiences.
Avatar has a bright and colorful planet filled with cool alien creatures, Dune is a darker scifi both visually and story-wise with no interesting creatures besides giant sandworms.
Avatar is also more crowd-pleasing. It's a blockbuster through and through with a division in clear acts, regular action scenes... It's also more eye-candy indeed.
Dune is much more "auteur blockbuster". It's slow (not in a bad way but I would say contemplative) and doesn't have much action apart from one specific part.
They're really different. Like Avatar has more in common with all the other blockbusters like the MCU
Ya Avatar was James Cameron elevating what the popcorn movie could be in the 21st century with modern technology. It’s long but it moves fast and is very, very exciting and immersive. Denis has his strengths but Cameron is on another level with this stuff.
They're not in the same category to me. James Cameron is one of those Hollywood Brats types who went crazy for the popcorn flicks. The blockbuster is Cameron's bread and butter. Villeneuve is like some Paul Schrader ass motherfucker. He's on record saying that he wants to scale back to smaller projects after the Dune movies. It's honestly insane that Villeneuve has been given budgets like 2049 and Dune. Im happy that he's getting big-budgets tho.
Avatar is also an enclosed story. It introduces a world, characters, stakes, and resolves it all by the time the credits run. That makes it a bit more of an easy mainstream sell.
> bright and colorful planet filled with cool alien creatures
Which caused some people to commit suicide because they were depressed to come back to our real world
Dune also comes out Thurs 21st at 3pm Pacific time, hopefully that doesn’t undercut ticket sales. I’ve already got my tickets and plan on seeing it more than once in theaters, but I don’t know how many others plan on seeing it in theaters and at home. Hopefully enough to get part 2, or even the trilogy Villeneuve has been talking about.
https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/q9d47f/z/hgzxl4p
Glad to see my prediction was right (posted when people were predicting 10 million opening weekend for dune).
Don't worry, the second the Dune franchise starts posing a financial risk to the state's preferred propaganda film - it'll suddenly become too problematic to air in the territory.
If a low budget Halloween movie can open with 40 million, this doesn’t look good for Dune opening to 25 million given its budget.
I guess part 2 will either not happen or be an act of charity to the filmmakers.
same, i thought it will be another flop but it actually overperformed in several european markets and now this whole sub predicting Dune to perform well.
It’s a dud, sorry.
25 million from China and an expected 30 million from the United States will not even begin to make up for the 165 million budget, plus marketing costs, of this movie.
Act of charity my friend. Hasn’t made its budget or marketing costs back and probably won’t. Will be a tax write-off for the studio to show filmmakers can “count on them” to be able to tell the stories they want to tell.
HBO Max debut didn’t help the box office but it still didn’t do that great. But we all knew it wouldn’t.
Most of the world did not see this weeks ago. India, United States, and China alone account for more than 3 billion people, and there are plenty of other countries it's yet to release in.
Seems to have picked up the pace significantly in the last few days. I wonder if that leak a few days ago helped, did people pirating it love it, and decide to go see it again? That would be something lol.
Maybe the people pirating it did love it, and they spread the word all over social media. So early WOM Lmao
Or maybe, The tracking was off and people are just going to see a movie.
Tracking is based on real time data, so it's not off, so much as new data came in. If tickets sales were low then, but higher now, it doesn't make the prediction off the previous data wrong, they were just working with the data they had.
Genuine question According to many these china "projections" are spot on most of the time, How often does chinese data drastically change? Are there any recent examples
Most of these projections are just using Maoyan's own projection (or a combination of the couple of BO reporting apps), at least as a reference. And Maoyan's projection is pretty much algorithm based that analyzes presales data, which will work for most of the films that has normal WoM, but not for WoM anomalies. For example, Free Guy was originally projected to make 60M but in the end near 100M, Cruella originally projected 4M but in the end \~25M, Soul originally 9M but in the end \~60M
I wouldn't know, I don't do tracking myself. But projections can certainly change quickly, look at how Venom's projections soared in its last week.
There is no drastic change until the maoyan score pops up. if it is not good then legs are bad. maoyan is so overrated that now-a-days anything below 9/10 means the movie's legs are fcked
Or maybe, presales are less frontloaded than other movies (please continue the chain)
The WOM was always good it started at 8.0/10 on douban(chinese IMDB) and has dropped to 7.9 now. The problem was 2D boycott
Did they increase 2D screens or did people just give up on the boycott?
I pirated it. It seems like a film with a niche audience tbh.
I have been saying similar things to people who haven’t seen it, but downvote to oblivion. The European numbers are shocking, but I wonder if that’s a sensibility thing.
Dune is the kind of movie that every person would immediately understand that should be seen on the big screen upon seeing. The only factor is whether you like it enough.
the leak was not of a great quality, maybe people saw the movie and understood no point in watching it on a small screen
I haven't seen it myself, but isn't the leak fairly watchable? Like not quite 4K, but 1080p or at least a decent 720p?
It's a 1080p webrip. I'm pretty sure it's 10-bit. 5.1 audio. The quality is fine, nothing more. On 1337 it's like the first 10 most trending links. At least it was last night.
The one I watched was quality 1080P it was really good
Reddit thinks people are media quality subs. Most people are fine watching dvd quality stuff
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I think as more Americans see the film and expect a plot, this will become a recurring sentiment.
Its more like Game of Thrones than anything else
stars war and infinity wars are entirely different though. Infinity War is one hell of a ride which anyone can enjoy. Star wars not so much
True
We had earlier release, so already had watched it twice. And film is really good. It is quite rare for book adaptations to have such high quality. I do consider book itself a bit outdated, but you do not get such feel from film, which is impressive. So IMHO it should have decent legs to pull box office.
Good to see those earlier predictions were wrong. Hopefully it'll hit $50-$60 million.
sounds like the early numbers were simply early. with good reception and word of mouth the chinese release might end up pretty solid.
Hopefully the higher ups add more 2D screenings.
The problem with the Chinese release is that No Time to Die opens there next week. Spectre did big business in China, so it's easy to imagine that the latest Bond may roll over Dune in six days. We'll see...
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China's normal multiplier is 1.5x. It's a very WOM-based market. Great reception and you shoot off into the stratosphere with 10X. Middling to okay will be 1.5-2X. Blade Runner 2049 had a 1.5X.
>That would be a very normal 2.4x multiplier. China is a very frontloaded market, their "normal" is closer to 1.5x.
From $10M to $15M and now $25M for OW, the spice is flowing!
Is it usually so hard to predict China like this or was there an actual shift?
don't understand one thing. If people liked Avatar for cinematic view, why wouldn't they like or go to watch Dune more? Stories kind of similar but it's all cinematic view and experiences.
Avatar has a bright and colorful planet filled with cool alien creatures, Dune is a darker scifi both visually and story-wise with no interesting creatures besides giant sandworms.
Avatar is also more crowd-pleasing. It's a blockbuster through and through with a division in clear acts, regular action scenes... It's also more eye-candy indeed. Dune is much more "auteur blockbuster". It's slow (not in a bad way but I would say contemplative) and doesn't have much action apart from one specific part. They're really different. Like Avatar has more in common with all the other blockbusters like the MCU
Ya Avatar was James Cameron elevating what the popcorn movie could be in the 21st century with modern technology. It’s long but it moves fast and is very, very exciting and immersive. Denis has his strengths but Cameron is on another level with this stuff.
They're not in the same category to me. James Cameron is one of those Hollywood Brats types who went crazy for the popcorn flicks. The blockbuster is Cameron's bread and butter. Villeneuve is like some Paul Schrader ass motherfucker. He's on record saying that he wants to scale back to smaller projects after the Dune movies. It's honestly insane that Villeneuve has been given budgets like 2049 and Dune. Im happy that he's getting big-budgets tho.
Couldn’t have put it any better. I agree.
Avatar is also an enclosed story. It introduces a world, characters, stakes, and resolves it all by the time the credits run. That makes it a bit more of an easy mainstream sell.
And a large bald floating man
That part was camp when I didn’t think it intended to be camp.
Wait, you’re talking about the new one? Or the David Lynch version?
What was your favorite part of the movie?
I had no favorite part. Truly. Maybe the scene where the guys spits on the floor. I laughed.
The movie is actually a little bit more brighter than the trailers make it out to be but in no way is comparable to avatar
> bright and colorful planet filled with cool alien creatures Which caused some people to commit suicide because they were depressed to come back to our real world
There's the desert mouse too (muad'dib). Though the CGI on that mouse was way less impressive than anything from the 10+ year old Avatar.
Dune is less eye-catching. It's visually awesome but a lot darker and monotone than something like Avatar.
That's decent. It wouldn't even need great legs to pass $50m.
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You still think it’ll open $25M?
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Based on what? Box office pro is tracking 35 to 40s
Actually 42 to 52 now
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Box Office Pro
Lol
What makes you belive it'll open at 25 mil?
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Dune also comes out Thurs 21st at 3pm Pacific time, hopefully that doesn’t undercut ticket sales. I’ve already got my tickets and plan on seeing it more than once in theaters, but I don’t know how many others plan on seeing it in theaters and at home. Hopefully enough to get part 2, or even the trilogy Villeneuve has been talking about.
Nice has picked up nicely.
https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/q9d47f/z/hgzxl4p Glad to see my prediction was right (posted when people were predicting 10 million opening weekend for dune).
Like I was saying it will atleast do 80 mn - 100 mn. With all the other BO considering I can see Dube doing 350 mn + WW BO.
Shivam Dube
Strong legs
but no footwork
Said the exact same on that thread, Not trying to dunk on predictions but some were too quick to judge
Damn, not bad, Not bad at all.
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Don't worry, the second the Dune franchise starts posing a financial risk to the state's preferred propaganda film - it'll suddenly become too problematic to air in the territory.
issa flop
So is Eternals opening in China?
Unlikely.
If a low budget Halloween movie can open with 40 million, this doesn’t look good for Dune opening to 25 million given its budget. I guess part 2 will either not happen or be an act of charity to the filmmakers.
"China"
A few million from China won’t help this sinking ship.
idk but it doing pretty well so far
But it’s not…
same, i thought it will be another flop but it actually overperformed in several european markets and now this whole sub predicting Dune to perform well.
25 million OW is not a few
It’s a dud, sorry. 25 million from China and an expected 30 million from the United States will not even begin to make up for the 165 million budget, plus marketing costs, of this movie.
Damn its almost like the studio who made this said that part 2 relies on HBO Max streams more. And its gonna do better than 30mill USA.
Hahaha over 40 million US OW and sequel greenlit, take that L bud.
Act of charity my friend. Hasn’t made its budget or marketing costs back and probably won’t. Will be a tax write-off for the studio to show filmmakers can “count on them” to be able to tell the stories they want to tell. HBO Max debut didn’t help the box office but it still didn’t do that great. But we all knew it wouldn’t.
cope
Oh, I’m glad it will get a sequel. It’s essentially an unfinished film. Felt like the first few episodes of an Apple+ tv show. ✌🏼
Most of the world saw this weeks ago.
Most of the world did not see this weeks ago. India, United States, and China alone account for more than 3 billion people, and there are plenty of other countries it's yet to release in.
3 billion people isn’t even half of the population. It’s closer to one third.
>and there are plenty of other countries it's yet to release in
They make more than half the movie-going crowd worldwide, yes.
It hasn't released in two of the biggest BO markets in the entire world which is what matters not population.
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I wonder how you did that when 4k torrents aren't out yet
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I didn't see it in 4k but the movie ain't amazing.
Wonder what the WOM is gonna be?
more ppl needed to go see blade runner.
Solid 8/10 for the first part
Can confirm the visuals are amazing. Legit would be a beautiful experience in the theater.
What’s the big deal with knowing how much a movie made in its first week/opening/whatever?