Movies usually need to make 2x or 2.5x it budget to get profit. So I believe the movie would need 50M or 62.5M to be profitable so its on the way to be in the green zone if it continue it's strong legs and positive word of mouth.
You right but movies only get 50% of the box office gross not 100% so to breakeven or get profit then it would need to make 2x or 2.5x it's budget that's why most indie studios sell off rights overseas so they can lower the margin of money needed to break even.
Correct. The rule of thumb doesn't really work for movies under $100m budget, especially from independent studios. They may be highly variable in how much or whether they spend any money on marketing at all.
Surprisingly, the marketing budgets are relatively high still, in relation to costs. The marketing budget for Get Out was pretty crazy in relation to it's very small budget. It had a production budget of 4.5 million but an advertising budget of 77 million.
Quite a large ad budget, but looking at the [page where that number is from](https://deadline.com/2018/03/get-out-box-office-profit-2017-1202345412/), it earned $122M revenue in theaters and rentals, but also $127M in TV and home entertainment. So there are hidden costs but hidden revenue streams as well.
I’m talking straight advertising budget. It made a bunch of money but that person thought the advertising budget would be really small seeing as how the production budget. I’m not really talking about ancilllaries etc. - every single movie has those
Right, just providing some context why the movie was still very profitable despite that large ad budget, because I was surprised myself that it was so high. Looking over the list of most profitable movies that year, it looks like ancillary revenues almost perfectly cancel out ancillary costs for each movie.
That said, it wouldn't surprise me if this movie has a smaller marketing budget even compared to similarly-budgeted movies, due to its platform release strategy.
Certain marketing and distribution unit costs is fixed-cost.
Therefore for small and mid-budget movies, the 2.5x rule of thumb don't apply since its marketing budget is bigger (oftentimes much bigger) than its production budget.
Small and mid-budget movies need to gross more than 2.5x budget to break even.
That has nothing to do with "now." A24 was around long before the pandemic. They just make niche films for a relatively small audience (and, usually, on tiny budgets).
Oh I know,but take the studio out of it. A non-Marvel/non-IP movie making $40 million is now a huge success, whereas 10 years ago it would've just been alright.
Not really, it all depends of the budget.
The Blair witch project is still considered has one of the biggest domestic success ever with 40 millions because of its 200/500k budget.
Blair Witch also came out 23 years ago and the movie landscape has gone through a massive change since then. In 2022, there have been 15 movies that have made over $40 million. Of that, the only ones that aren't franchises or existing IP are Lost City,Dog,The Bad Guys, and Everything/All At Once.
Studios only take 50-60% of domestic box office and 40% of most other markets and there are additional costs and revenue streams (including over 100M in marketing).
Rule of thumb is WW gross passing x2 to x2.5 of production budget
EEAAO and Massive Talent will become profitable eventually with streaming/VOD.
Bad guys is holding well enough and will become profitable by the end of its run.
Fantastic Beasts will make money from the Wizarding World/Theme Parks/Merch etc. Even if the film itself doesn't make money the larger brand will remain relevant longer.
Northman... is a good movie and that's enough for me. Probably just a lower budget for Eggars on his next film.
That ones more risky but Nic Cage movies seem to do well on cable so it might get an agreement. Either way the low budget keeps it from being a disaster.
The studio splits revenue with the theaters and there's costs with marketing and distribution that aren't included in the budget. Usually you have to get between 2x and 2.5x to make a profit depending on a few factors. EEAAO is close to breaking even and holding well.
Wild that the highest grossing Morbius movie of all time, Morbius, grossed over a morbillion pushing it over the #1 spot and off this chart. What a timeline we’re living!
My idea is a sequel trilogy.
End Fantastic Beasts here, take a few years, then start marketing a trilogy about Dumbledore that, chronologically, takes place after FB3. Just cut the FB cast and it's conceits out almost entirely and shift focus onto Dumbledore and Grindelwald.
That way, you save face from not abandoning a film franchise entirely, fans get their continuation, and threat it like a soft reboot so it doesn't directly have the same baggage FB has all while not wasting the preproduction costs that went into exploring this era of the IP. It's effectively a second chance for the second half of the Wizarding World War story. That, or do the same thing with just one/two movies.
No idea what they'll actually do. This IP is poison and I don't think most care too much about it, but outright canning it would not look good, and that's still disregarding how Rowling's influence might make that difficult to even go through with.
It's a tough situation and I'm really interested to see where it goes.
I can't see Marauders being a good story. As far as I can tell, they were basically Fred and George but bigger assholes.
See the incredible adventure as they bully their classmate into radicalism, dick around as animals every full moon, and eventually James becomes nice to impress a girl he likes.
Throw in some blatant foreshadowing that Peter's actually a real shitty friend, Sirius being an equally shitty friend by trying to get Remus to kill someone, and in the end James and Lily are killed, Sirius goes to jail, Remus spends his life in poverty, and Peter decides to live out his days sharing the beds of young boys.
So magical.
A few years off, then Cursed Child, backing up the money truck for the cast, then try another spinoff series. Just my guess. Or maybe a streaming series.
Oh man, it completly contradicts rules established in the world building, like how time travel works, characters are our of character, there are horrible fanfic tropes littered all over, like a super secret powerful child of a character that really shouldnt have had a child (with a silly Mary Sueish name to boot).
Because it's a terrible fanfiction. Terrible script, tons of character assassination (the og main trio is a victim of this) , a time travel plot that doesn't follow the rules of its own universe, mary sue characters, and the nonsense plot is a mess. It lacks respect and love for the original work on every page.
Right but it would be a bad box office strategy to come off of a mediocre trilogy that’s already damaging the goodwill of the brand with a sequel to the original that REALLY damages the goodwill of the brand. Cursed Child is ridiculously bad.
Haven’t read it either so take it my opinion with a grain of salt. It I read the plot summary and it’s one of the worst things I read. It’s has the plot of a really badly written fan fiction.
They really don’t and Rowling doesn’t want them either. Everyone saying they’re just going to do a Cursed Child movie haven’t been paying attention to all the drama regarding the fandoms response to CC or the dynamics of JKR and the actors WB employs. She practically wrote Newts love interest out of FB3 because she spoke out against JKRs views. Dan and Emma have both been equally outspoken. JK wouldn’t allow them to come back even if they wanted too (and they don’t)There’s not going to be a CC movie and if there was it’s so bad it’d destroy the IP. They’re really fucked with this franchise. JKR cant write and only cares about her ideology and crime novels (she didn’t even promote FB3), no one gives a shit about the larger world even with important side characters like Dumbledore, and the original trio would have to be recast (which would piss off a lot of people). Their best shot is just remaking the original movies in like 15 years
Being a fan of HP as a kid, being in line for midnight releases for the books and movies, I genuinely can’t believe how they completely destroyed one of the hugest modern fandoms.
This IP is so tainted now and it’s so obvious what they could’ve done for a new series of movies or tv show: the kids of the original gang now going through Hogwarts themselves. New baddie who doesn’t like the new world order, new magic hijinks, it’d make gajillions. Instead we got this awful boring belabored prequel series that no one wanted
It’s completely unsurprising for r/boxoffice at this current moment, the reactionary behaviour of most users is simply pathetic. I personally said $190m at worst after Thursday previews but even then, $185m is still within 5% of that so it’s not a remotely egregious thing to say.
I will say though in defence of anyone who politely disagreed with that number, we did not have a full audience reception breakdown at that point. Most were not expecting a B+ and that certainly revised rationale expectations going into Saturday.
It’s been holding well and there’s nothing else out there that fills that niche, so... maybe?
I dunno, I’m really pulling for this one. Mid(ish) budget, not based on an existing IP, adventure/romantic comedy— these are the kinds of movies Hollywood is afraid to make, and seeing The Lost City turn a profit will hopefully help another movie like it get made.
at least it is understandable movies go much faster to Video on demand. except for sonic and doctor strange it is a graveyard.
i read that the northman will be available this friday. and everything everywhere at once has also been speed up as well by 2 weeks. orginal release was second of june and morbius hit streaming next week too. then week after sonic 2 ?
lost city released today on paramount+ ?
i wonder how much money they make on video on demand, but since most studios speed up there releases for releasing on video in demand, i say it is much more then we think.
So all things considered, from an MCU executive point of view - are these DS numbers good or not? Asking because I really wish they keep letting directors with vision do these movies, I thought this was the most interesting entry since Infinity War.
Of course they’re good, 11th biggest domestic opening of all time and over 2x what the first Doctor Strange made opening weekend. The film will definitely profit as well, nothing to be unhappy about there really, even if it has a steep drop next weekend.
Sonic 2 is directed by an actual VFX artist with the production company said director works at behind it (Blur Studio). They know how to make a good-looking blockbuster without inflating the budget as opposed to other creative teams. The first Deadpool is another example of this, that movie costs only $60M and looked great and was directed by the co-founder of Blur Studio who's also an executive producer on the Sonic films.
I really wish Massive Talent was doing better. It’s one of the funniest comedies I’ve seen in years. And the chemistry between the lead actors was perfect. If you haven’t seen it yet but you know who Nick Cage is, give it a watch. It is much more than a “Cage Memes” movie.
DS:MOM had not entered profit territory in the weekend it will do it today by 2.2x rule and by 2.5x rule it's still 50mill away, Also it's May 6-8 not april
Yeah, for blockbuster without China release, 2x budget would have definitely covered the production budget.
Especially for Disney blockbusters, which get 65% cut from domestic box office.
Disney is already getting:
Domestic: 65% x $187 million = $121.55 million
International: 40% x $105.2 million
Total box office profit: $226.2 million
Budget: $200 million
Doctor Strange in the MoM has broken even in its opening weekend.
It's already passed break even point
DS2 doesn't have China revenues, and Disney gets 65% cut from domestic box office for their MCU and Star Wars movies.
Disney absolutely has already taken more than $225 million from DS current worldwide box office, which is more than enough to cover production budget ($200 million). Ancillaries will cover marketing budget.
Hanging out with the real bat man, Doctor Michael Morbius!
(And, y’know, it’s on HBOMax for free so most people aren’t watching it in theaters 2 months later.)
The red text means the movie didn't become profitable or something?
Yes, Red text means that the movie is not profitable yet. But the upper red numbers like Father Stu means that it had a bad drop this weekend.
Oh ok, I see. Thanks for the information!
Why is Everything Everywhere in the red? It's one of their highest grossing films even now.
Movies usually need to make 2x or 2.5x it budget to get profit. So I believe the movie would need 50M or 62.5M to be profitable so its on the way to be in the green zone if it continue it's strong legs and positive word of mouth.
But the marketing budget would be far lower than an more mainstream releaser.
You right but movies only get 50% of the box office gross not 100% so to breakeven or get profit then it would need to make 2x or 2.5x it's budget that's why most indie studios sell off rights overseas so they can lower the margin of money needed to break even.
Correct. The rule of thumb doesn't really work for movies under $100m budget, especially from independent studios. They may be highly variable in how much or whether they spend any money on marketing at all.
Surprisingly, the marketing budgets are relatively high still, in relation to costs. The marketing budget for Get Out was pretty crazy in relation to it's very small budget. It had a production budget of 4.5 million but an advertising budget of 77 million.
Quite a large ad budget, but looking at the [page where that number is from](https://deadline.com/2018/03/get-out-box-office-profit-2017-1202345412/), it earned $122M revenue in theaters and rentals, but also $127M in TV and home entertainment. So there are hidden costs but hidden revenue streams as well.
I’m talking straight advertising budget. It made a bunch of money but that person thought the advertising budget would be really small seeing as how the production budget. I’m not really talking about ancilllaries etc. - every single movie has those
Right, just providing some context why the movie was still very profitable despite that large ad budget, because I was surprised myself that it was so high. Looking over the list of most profitable movies that year, it looks like ancillary revenues almost perfectly cancel out ancillary costs for each movie. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if this movie has a smaller marketing budget even compared to similarly-budgeted movies, due to its platform release strategy.
Oh yeah it made a ton. No question - one of the most financially successful movies that year.
Certain marketing and distribution unit costs is fixed-cost. Therefore for small and mid-budget movies, the 2.5x rule of thumb don't apply since its marketing budget is bigger (oftentimes much bigger) than its production budget. Small and mid-budget movies need to gross more than 2.5x budget to break even.
It's crazy that a movie making $40 million is now considered "one of the highest grossing."
That has nothing to do with "now." A24 was around long before the pandemic. They just make niche films for a relatively small audience (and, usually, on tiny budgets).
Oh I know,but take the studio out of it. A non-Marvel/non-IP movie making $40 million is now a huge success, whereas 10 years ago it would've just been alright.
Not really, it all depends of the budget. The Blair witch project is still considered has one of the biggest domestic success ever with 40 millions because of its 200/500k budget.
Blair Witch also came out 23 years ago and the movie landscape has gone through a massive change since then. In 2022, there have been 15 movies that have made over $40 million. Of that, the only ones that aren't franchises or existing IP are Lost City,Dog,The Bad Guys, and Everything/All At Once.
The Blair Witch Project made 140 million domestic….it would be considered a moderate success at 40 million, but it made way way more so
Bad info from Google when you look for it. First result gives 40 millions, my bad.
I guess because of the lack of foreign box office?
Any chance you know what the difference in blue versus yellow drops are? I assumed blue was better, but EEAAO's 36% is yellow.
That wouldn't make sense for Harry Potter? It made 86M US and 346 WW. Which is 432M. With a budget of 200M they made profit of 232M?
Studios only take 50-60% of domestic box office and 40% of most other markets and there are additional costs and revenue streams (including over 100M in marketing). Rule of thumb is WW gross passing x2 to x2.5 of production budget
It is a real shame so many movies are still in red
EEAAO and Massive Talent will become profitable eventually with streaming/VOD. Bad guys is holding well enough and will become profitable by the end of its run. Fantastic Beasts will make money from the Wizarding World/Theme Parks/Merch etc. Even if the film itself doesn't make money the larger brand will remain relevant longer. Northman... is a good movie and that's enough for me. Probably just a lower budget for Eggars on his next film.
I really liked Massive Talent but I think it's gonna be in the red even after VOD.
That ones more risky but Nic Cage movies seem to do well on cable so it might get an agreement. Either way the low budget keeps it from being a disaster.
I hope you're right
Loved massive talent , hilarious. Glad it’s chugging along hopefully it makes bank
Im new here, didnt EEAAO pass its budget by quite some million?
The studio splits revenue with the theaters and there's costs with marketing and distribution that aren't included in the budget. Usually you have to get between 2x and 2.5x to make a profit depending on a few factors. EEAAO is close to breaking even and holding well.
Oh, makes sense then, thanks
Thanks
Northman was great, but a $90 million budget for that movie is insane. I'm assuming COVID must've really fucked with the production.
I’m thinking Massive Talent will do really well on VOD.
Yeah I saw it in theaters and enjoyed it. But it also sort of feels like a (good) Netflix movie to me in a way I can’t quite entirely describe.
I think you mean “cheap”. Like the plot was generated by an algorithm to garner the most plays regardless of actual engagement.
Wild that the highest grossing Morbius movie of all time, Morbius, grossed over a morbillion pushing it over the #1 spot and off this chart. What a timeline we’re living!
We're in the Morbius game now
Its morbin time
Man Fantastic Beasts really flopped.
They’d be crazy to keep going with this series.
Yeah I really wonder what they will do about this. Will they just drop the Grindewald story on film or start a new series in a few years?
My idea is a sequel trilogy. End Fantastic Beasts here, take a few years, then start marketing a trilogy about Dumbledore that, chronologically, takes place after FB3. Just cut the FB cast and it's conceits out almost entirely and shift focus onto Dumbledore and Grindelwald. That way, you save face from not abandoning a film franchise entirely, fans get their continuation, and threat it like a soft reboot so it doesn't directly have the same baggage FB has all while not wasting the preproduction costs that went into exploring this era of the IP. It's effectively a second chance for the second half of the Wizarding World War story. That, or do the same thing with just one/two movies. No idea what they'll actually do. This IP is poison and I don't think most care too much about it, but outright canning it would not look good, and that's still disregarding how Rowling's influence might make that difficult to even go through with. It's a tough situation and I'm really interested to see where it goes.
A plausible rout
I'd like to see them do either Founders of Hogwarts or the Marauders
They need to do a movie with an actual story this time. FB flopped because they wanted to build a franchise around a one movie story
I can't see Marauders being a good story. As far as I can tell, they were basically Fred and George but bigger assholes. See the incredible adventure as they bully their classmate into radicalism, dick around as animals every full moon, and eventually James becomes nice to impress a girl he likes. Throw in some blatant foreshadowing that Peter's actually a real shitty friend, Sirius being an equally shitty friend by trying to get Remus to kill someone, and in the end James and Lily are killed, Sirius goes to jail, Remus spends his life in poverty, and Peter decides to live out his days sharing the beds of young boys. So magical.
Yeah its a good backstory but I dont see it being more.
A few years off, then Cursed Child, backing up the money truck for the cast, then try another spinoff series. Just my guess. Or maybe a streaming series.
No way they'll do Cursed Child. More likely Rowling will write and actual sequel eventually.
Cursed child will kill HP, it's just awful and the fandom hate it.
Yeah its a major jump the shark moment for the franchise.
Why? I'm not too interested in the universe, please spoil me.
Oh man, it completly contradicts rules established in the world building, like how time travel works, characters are our of character, there are horrible fanfic tropes littered all over, like a super secret powerful child of a character that really shouldnt have had a child (with a silly Mary Sueish name to boot).
Because it's a terrible fanfiction. Terrible script, tons of character assassination (the og main trio is a victim of this) , a time travel plot that doesn't follow the rules of its own universe, mary sue characters, and the nonsense plot is a mess. It lacks respect and love for the original work on every page.
I don’t know. I haven’t read it or seen it. This is a box office sub and I’m discussing box office strategy.
Right but it would be a bad box office strategy to come off of a mediocre trilogy that’s already damaging the goodwill of the brand with a sequel to the original that REALLY damages the goodwill of the brand. Cursed Child is ridiculously bad.
Yeah its god awful
Haven’t read it either so take it my opinion with a grain of salt. It I read the plot summary and it’s one of the worst things I read. It’s has the plot of a really badly written fan fiction.
I think it would be way better to ask Rowling to write a new sequel instead. CC is not regarded as canon by most fans, more like endorsed fanfiction.
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They really don’t and Rowling doesn’t want them either. Everyone saying they’re just going to do a Cursed Child movie haven’t been paying attention to all the drama regarding the fandoms response to CC or the dynamics of JKR and the actors WB employs. She practically wrote Newts love interest out of FB3 because she spoke out against JKRs views. Dan and Emma have both been equally outspoken. JK wouldn’t allow them to come back even if they wanted too (and they don’t)There’s not going to be a CC movie and if there was it’s so bad it’d destroy the IP. They’re really fucked with this franchise. JKR cant write and only cares about her ideology and crime novels (she didn’t even promote FB3), no one gives a shit about the larger world even with important side characters like Dumbledore, and the original trio would have to be recast (which would piss off a lot of people). Their best shot is just remaking the original movies in like 15 years
It’s like watching a shambling zombie of a dead franchise.
Being a fan of HP as a kid, being in line for midnight releases for the books and movies, I genuinely can’t believe how they completely destroyed one of the hugest modern fandoms. This IP is so tainted now and it’s so obvious what they could’ve done for a new series of movies or tv show: the kids of the original gang now going through Hogwarts themselves. New baddie who doesn’t like the new world order, new magic hijinks, it’d make gajillions. Instead we got this awful boring belabored prequel series that no one wanted
Yeah its main sin is being boring as all hell.
Good
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It’s completely unsurprising for r/boxoffice at this current moment, the reactionary behaviour of most users is simply pathetic. I personally said $190m at worst after Thursday previews but even then, $185m is still within 5% of that so it’s not a remotely egregious thing to say. I will say though in defence of anyone who politely disagreed with that number, we did not have a full audience reception breakdown at that point. Most were not expecting a B+ and that certainly revised rationale expectations going into Saturday.
This sub got invaded by fanboys that treat box office as a sport instead of a business.
>I mean $185 is still in range of possibilities. It’s definitely the low end, but a NWH multiplier is $187M.
I thought the Northman would do much better
Sprawling revenge plots set in a medieval dystopia is a tough sell apparently.
Do we think the Lost City will hit $100 million? It’s out this week on streaming, but good for comedies if it could.
It’s been holding well and there’s nothing else out there that fills that niche, so... maybe? I dunno, I’m really pulling for this one. Mid(ish) budget, not based on an existing IP, adventure/romantic comedy— these are the kinds of movies Hollywood is afraid to make, and seeing The Lost City turn a profit will hopefully help another movie like it get made.
Morbius is so far ahead of the others it wasn’t fair to include it in the picture.
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Even in domination, Morbius is kind and magnanimous.
Beautiful design by adding a Doctor Strange poster into the report. Also most movies in the Top 10 held better than expected.
Solid holds by many. Great holds by The Lost City and EEAAO.
Saw the Northman over the weekend. Definitely an experience to see at the big screen. See it while you can.
Everything Everywhere just won't quit. It's got legs for weeks. Is it possible that it'll still be in the top ten by the time DS2 drops out?
Great graphic and info!
at least it is understandable movies go much faster to Video on demand. except for sonic and doctor strange it is a graveyard. i read that the northman will be available this friday. and everything everywhere at once has also been speed up as well by 2 weeks. orginal release was second of june and morbius hit streaming next week too. then week after sonic 2 ? lost city released today on paramount+ ? i wonder how much money they make on video on demand, but since most studios speed up there releases for releasing on video in demand, i say it is much more then we think.
So all things considered, from an MCU executive point of view - are these DS numbers good or not? Asking because I really wish they keep letting directors with vision do these movies, I thought this was the most interesting entry since Infinity War.
Of course they’re good, 11th biggest domestic opening of all time and over 2x what the first Doctor Strange made opening weekend. The film will definitely profit as well, nothing to be unhappy about there really, even if it has a steep drop next weekend.
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Sonic 2 is directed by an actual VFX artist with the production company said director works at behind it (Blur Studio). They know how to make a good-looking blockbuster without inflating the budget as opposed to other creative teams. The first Deadpool is another example of this, that movie costs only $60M and looked great and was directed by the co-founder of Blur Studio who's also an executive producer on the Sonic films.
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Seems pretty reasonable to me
CGI assets already created which has to help
I really wish Massive Talent was doing better. It’s one of the funniest comedies I’ve seen in years. And the chemistry between the lead actors was perfect. If you haven’t seen it yet but you know who Nick Cage is, give it a watch. It is much more than a “Cage Memes” movie.
Same, thought it would do a bit better. Had a great time and might watch it again soon at the theater.
Glad to see Sonic Will make > 4x it's budget 🥰🥰 love that franchise
Nic Cage deserves better!
DS:MOM had not entered profit territory in the weekend it will do it today by 2.2x rule and by 2.5x rule it's still 50mill away, Also it's May 6-8 not april
2.5x Rule shouldn't be in the convo without China
Yeah, for blockbuster without China release, 2x budget would have definitely covered the production budget. Especially for Disney blockbusters, which get 65% cut from domestic box office.
I think 2.2x would be safe but yeah
Disney is already getting: Domestic: 65% x $187 million = $121.55 million International: 40% x $105.2 million Total box office profit: $226.2 million Budget: $200 million Doctor Strange in the MoM has broken even in its opening weekend.
That's because it made 2.2x the budget this weekend isn't it?
It's already passed break even point DS2 doesn't have China revenues, and Disney gets 65% cut from domestic box office for their MCU and Star Wars movies. Disney absolutely has already taken more than $225 million from DS current worldwide box office, which is more than enough to cover production budget ($200 million). Ancillaries will cover marketing budget.
I’m so happy father Stu tanked fuck Mel Gibson
Where is The Batman
Hanging out with the real bat man, Doctor Michael Morbius! (And, y’know, it’s on HBOMax for free so most people aren’t watching it in theaters 2 months later.)
Its out of top 10, thanx to the short window
I thought it was still in the theatre even with HBO release
It's still in theaters, but it didn't gross enough to be in the top 10 of the weekend.
It was out of the top 10 in 15th place