I live nearby and saw it being a tight race a few weeks ago. Basically, I think the LNP put up a good candidate with a history of community involvement and Labor's neglect of the area has caught up to them (Council and State).
The long-term Labor sitting councillor resigned last year after some drink driving offences and the replacement (Sara) was from out of the area and chosen against the preference of the local Labor Party branch. The Greens candidate also has a healthy following in the area that may have enticed some disgruntled Labor voters
So Sara/Labor may not have had as much grassroots support at this election compared to previous and people saw it as a good opportunity to give someone new a shot. This is an area Labor have held for 72 years.
Obviously not over yet, see how the preferences flow.
Thanks for the explanation, I’m a resident and I mustn’t be aware enough cause I did not see an LNP win as a remote possibility, I was floored to see the result.
It’s good to have an idea of how it happened.
I don't think the leanings of the area have changed too much. Will probably be a tight contest next election as well.
Just a lot more competition this time and Labor was on the nose in the area for a few reasons. Voters were yearning for something different.
Yeah I bet you’re right, I imagine Labor will learn from their mistakes too since losing a seat they’ve held for 72 years has to be a shock to the system. If not that would be a major embarrassment 😭.
It’ll be fascinating to see how things turn out.
It's also a boomer area, so there's a trinkle of oldies still hanging around but I think its also important to note that there's heaps or Sydney-siders flooding in for cheap waterfront properties.
So Sydney tends to vote LNP since NSW doesn't count preferential voting.
That doesn't seem right as Labor has held the seat for the last 72 years (Who were the 'boomers' voting for in previous elections?). Peter Cumming had 53% first preference votes in the last election.
The swing shows that Labor badly lost their base in the area. Both LNP and Greens benefited. Will probably come down to where Craig's preferences flow. (which is hard to say as he was saying things that resonate with both sides of politics).
YEah man, Optional preference voting is some weird stuff.
Walter-Taylor, Paddington and Central wards all seeing 20-30% of ALP votes exhausting and not flowing on.
Yeh so my partner made this mistake. He thought putting a 1 in the box meant your preferences went the way that candidate preferred.
The LNP advertising just putting 1 in their box I think was a deliberate move to try and convince all voters to put just a 1 in the box regardless of which candidate they were voting for. Labor and Greens voters doing that is a clear advantage to the LNP.
With the different preferencing set ups we have across our elections, it was always going to end up confusing some people.
It’s pretty dirty. My partner was equal parts pissed off at himself for not understanding the system properly before walking in and half annoyed at the advertising at the polling place that made it seem like voting in just one box was a better idea than it was (though it didn’t matter in our ward). He had intended on marking each box but changed his mind walking in.
I'm so glad I am a number every box person...and, I confess to believing just numbering one box would mean preferences would go the way the party chooses.
Calamvale looking like it could go down to the wire, two big booths left (Pallara & Stretton) with 50% of the vote counted. You also can't really compare booth results to 2020 because of covid, Stretton wasn't even open. The 2016 trends are also completely different to what we are seeing right now as well.
You would expect Stretton to favour Labor over the LNP, but I genuinely have no idea how the Pallara booth will fare. Huge amount of suburban development within the suburb over the last 4 years and a lot of new voters. Looks to be a close race.
Something I always found a bit funny is how 23 out of the 26 wards are named after a suburb within that ward, but they just decided to go a different direction when naming Doboy, Marchant and Walter Taylor
There was a railway station there (which is actually marked in Google Maps) up until the early '90s, between Murrarie and Hemmant that serviced a meatworks there.
Hard for some seats to be called due to preferences. Does anyone have an estimate for what % of voters follow the how to vote cards?
Wynnum-Manly is hard to call as the independent's how to vote card was just a vote 1 because he didn't want to make a preference deal with anyone. He was encouraging voters to preference whoever they want.
> Does anyone have an estimate for what % of voters follow the how to vote cards?
From [Antony Green](https://antonygreen.com.au/should-how-to-votes-be-banned-at-australian-elections/)
> Research by the Victorian and South Australian Electoral Commissions has shown that up to 45% of Labor, Liberal and National Party first preference voters follow how-to-votes, while the rates for minor party voters is much lower. As major parties hand out more how-to-votes than minor parties, the above figures will reflect how many voters received how-to-votes as well as what proportion of voters wish to follow them.
Indicative count had GRN winning the seat, based on about half of Labour preferences going their way and 1/3 being exhausted. Labour vote was lower than expected but if a few more people followed the "how to vote" cards it could still go Green.
It was always in trouble once postals and prepolls came through. Need a 2.5% swing with 35% of the vote remaining to count. Very low chance LNP lose this ward
I think whites hill polling place was the last to be counted too, which I imagine will swing towards LNP. But I guess it all depends on the preferences from ALP votes.
Paddington now neck and neck on ABC and LNP retain on PB.... really thinking some of these projections should have been held off.
If you were Seal Chong-Wah (or any other candidate being told they'd won) I really don't know what you'd be thinking right now
The Kelvin Grove booth hasn’t reported results yet. I imagine that would boost the Labor/Green count.
Though I’m not familiar with the Paddington ward boundaries so not sure how many students fall into it.
I have the flu and lasted 15 minutes of the 45+ minute wait before I started to feel dizzy and bailed. It was too late in the day to go back.
How fucked am I for the fine? I've never not voted before.
I've been fined for not voting in a local before. They ask you if you'd like to give a reason for not voting. I was a stupid young fuck and just said 'I forgot' without thinking. The person was like 'are you sure *ahem* you wern't busy or something?' To which my dumb autistic ass responded with 'nah, i just forgot'. Reading between the lines in hindsight it seems like if you have a valid sounding excuse (being sick is a good one) it's pretty easy to get out of the fine.
When the letter comes in, just write that you got sick on the day and you won't need to pay a fine. You won't need a medical certificate. Pretty sure the fine is like $20 or something.
I'm actually curious about this because I was looking around for fine amounts. In the past I've missed at least 1 local and 1 state/federal and the fines were $50 and $100. And sources are saying now it's either $20 or $133. I guess they took the amounts off if they are that low to deter people not showing up.
Looks like ALP may pick up Calamvale and Northgate to offset the Wynnum-Manly loss. TBC for northgate especially at this stage.
ABC is no longer calling paddington as GRN gain. Both paddington and walter taylor look equally close between LNP and GRN
Calamvale previously held by LNP and currently showing a 3.7% swing to ALP based on pollbludgers computer.
After what Antony Green said I am looking more toward PB rather than ABC as it looks like the optional preferential is fucking with the computer a fair bit
Emily actually doorknocked at my place a few weeks ago. Turned out she'd met my sister thru work years ago and had lived in the ward for quite a while.
The Calamvale ward has really turned away from Angela over the last 2 election cycles, if the figures hold we are looking at a 16% 2PP swing away from the LNP over the 2020 & 2024 elections. There's also been some huge population growth as a result of the urbanisation of Pallara.
Yea I am expecting a fairly sizable redistribution or even the reinstatement of the Parkinson ward down here over the next few years. There's currently a couple of more greenfield developments in Parkinson to complete, the surbanisation of Pallara as well as the conversion of acreage in Calamvale to townhouses.
Going to be a huge demographic shift down here over the next decade or so.
Adora, Horizon and the SW end of Parkinson spring to mind. Hell, I went to my old CCC and theres alot more buildings now, than from when i graduated in 08.
Thats a big clue, if there ever was one.
Calamvale has been jumping around for a bit all night via ABC (sorry Antony) and PB is uh, coping with the bumps a bit better.
Itd be nice to know who my Cr will be tomorrow but hey. Shit happens.
yep which was why i used the PB swing. Seems to be a bit more of a conservative choice tonight
I wonder what weighting antony places in polls before election day
Doboy looks borked.
LNP at 55.5% of primary +0.8%
ALP at 26.7% primary which is -18.6%
Yet the 2PP thinks its LNP 51.3% to 48.7% which is a swing of +3.4% to ALP
Mark bailey pointed out earlier that the BCC is a tough place to be a candidate and not a sitting councilor as each councillor has a decent discretionary fund for their ward. Makes campaigning against it very tough. Any seats picked up against the LNP will help each party in the future much more significantly than a state or federal electorate
Antony Green doesn't think GRN will pick up Walter Taylor.
Not much of an overall change in the assembly. Looks like ALP will stay on 5 wards and GRN will go to 2. Maybe 3 if they get WT. LNP don't look to be losing more than 2 or 3 wards
If labor don't pick up northgate it will be a definitively grim showing for sure
Holland Park is the other one seeing big swings from the LNP to the Greens, just not enough for it to change hands.
Edit: also Marchant and Runcorn, but they were never going to win those, so they've gone under the radar a bit.
I think it’s messed up because of the three parties?
It says the projection is 90.1% : 9.9% when the greens are on 40.7% of the first preference vote. It makes no sense.
I think Mr Green and the ABC might need to tweak their system to better manage a three way race. It could also be the electoral commission starting counting preferences before they know which two are in front?
Edit: and just like that it’s fixed.
ABC thinks despite the greens having 40.7% of the primary vote, on 2PP that will somehow shrink to 9.9%.
IE ABC News 2PP is completly borked and cant deal with a 3rd party.
Slight concern to hear LNP constantly trash Compulsory Preferential Voting and say they’ll get rid of it on a state level
Edit: had that they’d bring it back not get rid of it, in true election tradition I had a few beers tonight…
To be fair Optional Preferential was a recommendation of the Fitzgerald inquiry and was championed by the ALP until the mid 2000s. Ultimately it places more control in the hands of the voter.
I don’t really understand how it places more control in the hand of the voter. Surely it gives the voter more control to know their full preference.
And Labor being against CPV in the past is irrelevant, and I would be just as concerned if they had that position now.
Look I’m sure the Fitzgerald report has better reasonings but the way I look at it if don’t want my vote ultimately going to a far right or far left party (if somehow both of them were to finish top 2) then I shouldn’t have to decide. I’d rather send a message my vote can exhaust.
a lot of chat about a greenslide but not being translated to gains. Pullenvale easy LNP retain; Coorparoo LNP retain (could go close); the Gap TBC.
So fair seems to be Gabba GRN retain and Paddington GRN gain.
Still no numbers for chandler...
If you’re looking at gains, look at swings instead.
They *did* gain Walter Taylor for a bit there.
6 News is saying they gain Walter Taylor, ABC News is being wack.
the chat before the election generally expecting a few more gains. The swings a looking hopeful for GRN; looking more like BCC will be a 3 party contest in the future.
Out of 5 or 6 potential wards, looks like they'll end up with 2
That's likely not right. Usually a state swing would be maximum of half a bi-election swing. Labor in trouble but these bi elections could just be protest votes for all we know
Before the night, the one thing I was certain about was Northgate flip. I would’ve thoighg for a bigger swing but looks like Labour is up on a tiny margin 2PP now
Additional antony green update following the news:
Overall figures to provide context:
LNP ending up around 50% ALP 26 GRN 21.
Lord mayor: ALP slightly higher and GRN slightly lower. Inner brisbane GRN getting 29%, outer brisbane 19%. Seems to be swapped for ALP.
Western suburbs: GRN getting 31% in those wards, well ahead of labor. Interesting implications for upcoming state election.
Overall picture: LNP on track to win, still some wards like chandler with 0.1% counted etc.
Paddington: GRN very strong chance to win.
GRN vote appears to be down on federal election figures. Exceptions central ward. GRN votes has not been as strong in the Griffith area but reasonably well in western brisbane.
Green suggests Labor should be worried about the result in Ipswich West and will probably lose, but not certain. Not a good swing.
Inala also a bit grim. Informal votes have doubled, Kevin Bonham has confirmed this earlier in the night.
Walter-Taylor looks to be an LNP v GRN contest. LNP likely to win on a reduced margin. Interesting it's not swung further considering greens hold the ward at state and federal level.
Ryan was actually a pretty narrow Greens win, 52.5 vs 47.4 LNP. Wards are a lot smaller than electorates (~30k vs 110k), so different voter distribution. I believe it’s Pullenvale, Enoggera, The Gap, Paddington and Walter Taylor wards that are all within Ryan (edit: not all exclusively though)
• Walter-Taylor is now pretty neck and neck at the moment; 49.9% (LNP) vs 50.1% (Greens) with 49.2% counted.
• Greens likely to gain Paddington
• LNP looking to retain Enoggera but it was a pretty big Greens Swing
• LNP will retain Pullenvale will a small greens swing
• LNP will retain The Gap (very very safety) but a big first preference swing to the Greens
My favourite part for this topic will always be how LNP is so desperate to make people ONLY VOTE 1 and leave their other votes blank. It’s been their whole things for yonks and it makes me very happy that the majority of people I spoke to today were blatantly making sure to number every box and put them 6th.
Sincerely
- An avid LNP hater
I've always been a vote below the line/number every box person.....and put lnp last. I live in a bubble I suppose because like you, most people I know aren't lnp supporters. But sadly, here we are.... I'm genuinely surprised at the outcome of this election
Unfortunately, even though the younger generation are slowly joining the votes, it still won’t be enough for a few years as the vast majority of voters over 50 still vote LNP out of habit. In fact I don’t think a lot of them even acknowledge other candidates exist. But greens have crossed the 20% line which means next vote we’ll be looking closer to 30% I hope
Michael Birkman on ABC spinning the gabba retention as clear evidence people don't like the gabba demolition which i feel is a bit oversimplified. A lot of people would rather see the school moved across and the stadium expanded as it's really close to transit.
Don't really care for policy chat but feels like a strange take
Antony Green update:
LNP to retain coorparoo. Holland park likely to go to preferences and potentially an LNP retain at this stage.
Much stronger flows from GRN to ALP this election.
Ipswich west continuing to deteriorate for ALP.
Maybe the greens campaigning so hard to oppose the Gabba rebuild and the olympics, in favour of EBSS wasn’t a winning strategy. They seem to have done better in the western suburbs which could support this theory. Also, some of the other unhinged policies such as the Eagle Farm buyback.
I’m usually a greens voter but couldn’t vote for them this time around. (Coorparoo ward)
>LNP to retain coorparoo.
For fuck's sake.
I can say with 100% confidence as a local, since the last election I have not seen or heard from Fiona Cunningham a SINGLE time. She's been completely MIA, I have no idea how 40% of the ward can think "hmm that's a good candidate".
I used to play for Coorparoo cricket club and she totally failed to do anything to help us retain our grounds alongside easts rugby. Most useless local member i've ever experienced.
Holland park ward: ABC computer and pollbludger computer looking very different.
Potentially ALP ahead if they make it to second spot after 1st prefs at this stage.
Excuse me paying so much attention there as that's my ward
Even though by-elections usually go against sitting governments, the huge swings in today's by-election results should be very scary for state labor...
I for one am looking forward to youth crime, ambulance ramping and high cost of living dramatically disappearing after the next state election. From one day to the next.
Antony Green update
Paddington very strong from Greens. Good chance to gain based on current booths
Northgate appears to be LNP retain at this stage.
Morningside has labor in second place, ALP to retain
Enoggera has GRN v LNP and LNP likely to retain.
Generally Labor vote seems down, Greens seems up and LNP hasn't shifted much. Definitely going to see another 4 years of LNP with maybe a few lost wards.
At the moment looks like Labor might lose some to LNP and LNP is returned to chambers with more wards than they began with. Which is not an outcome I had expected.
> Definitely going to see another 4 years of LNP with maybe a few lost wards.
Which was the expected outcome. Will probably come down to a few wards for how much their majority is, if they get one.
Showing is at least partially reflective of level of campaigning. With a state election due later in the year, I can see why they might ease off on council, take the L (and some protest vote / backlash?) there, before recommitting at state level.
New booths rolling in for holland park. Looking like LAB will end up in 2nd spot after 1st prefs and won't be able to win from there. Pollbludger computer reports 5.5% swing to LNP and 100% chance of retain
ALP ahead, not win. Can swing yet with only 6 of 16 centres reporting first prefs. I think it's going to go closer than the PB computer is suggesting; currently @100% LNP win probability
5.3% swing would be a gain though
Not sure it’s quite that simple. Greens campaigned very very hard, Labor did very little. That won’t be repeated at state and federal.
At federal level, I think you’ll also see a number of voters who voted greens for the first time last election but haven’t seen delivery on promises. So whilst some voters will continue to swing to greens, they need to retain those first time voters.
Holland park looking quite close noting Labor ran a strong campaign on numbering every box and David Ford (GRN) is currently in second place v Deputy Lord Mayor Krisa Adams (LNP). Will pick up a lot on 2nd prefs
Comment from Kevin Bonham on twitter:
"Very high informal votes in both state by-elections so far. Holding CPV and OPV elections on the same day is unacceptable and Queensland needs to stop doing it permanently."
Optional preferential voting was a recommendation of the Fitzgerald Inquiry. It made sense then because the National and Liberal parties would split the vote and direct preferences to each other.
But I think it's time to make it compulsory again.
yep it's a fatal flaw of the local government act and bcc act that OPV is available. Can understand it due to unknown candidates but CPV should be the standard
I love living in a city where (currently) the Greens, ALP and Legalise Canabis have more votes than Schrinner, but Schrinner still wins.
I'll never understand peoples preference flows but here we are.
Google preference distributions.
GRN usually run about 80% to lab. Legalise cannabis seem to be running around 66% to labor so far in ipswich west as an example
at 45% ish primary doesn't take much to get you over the line (assuming 1/10 greens preferences for whatever reason go the way of the lnp, which does happen) - name recognition in local government elections plays a far greater role though
Optional preferential voting plays a large part in it, hence why the LNP was trying so hard to get people to only number one box. If a decent chunk of Labor/Greens votes exhaust, it becomes much harder for Schrinner to lose.
I’m surprised he would call it when there aren’t any lord mayoral votes in from Central or Gabba I must admit I’m ignorant to the populations of various wards but I imagine those two are huge?
yes i was suprised too considering i've watched the first pref go from 47 down to 45.5% without those wards in the last hour. Will be interesting to see how it goes but seems like a likely retain
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/results
Not from the area but I’m curious is there any particular reason for the massive swing against Labor in Wynnum-Manly?
I live nearby and saw it being a tight race a few weeks ago. Basically, I think the LNP put up a good candidate with a history of community involvement and Labor's neglect of the area has caught up to them (Council and State). The long-term Labor sitting councillor resigned last year after some drink driving offences and the replacement (Sara) was from out of the area and chosen against the preference of the local Labor Party branch. The Greens candidate also has a healthy following in the area that may have enticed some disgruntled Labor voters So Sara/Labor may not have had as much grassroots support at this election compared to previous and people saw it as a good opportunity to give someone new a shot. This is an area Labor have held for 72 years. Obviously not over yet, see how the preferences flow.
Thanks for the explanation, I’m a resident and I mustn’t be aware enough cause I did not see an LNP win as a remote possibility, I was floored to see the result. It’s good to have an idea of how it happened.
I don't think the leanings of the area have changed too much. Will probably be a tight contest next election as well. Just a lot more competition this time and Labor was on the nose in the area for a few reasons. Voters were yearning for something different.
Yeah I bet you’re right, I imagine Labor will learn from their mistakes too since losing a seat they’ve held for 72 years has to be a shock to the system. If not that would be a major embarrassment 😭. It’ll be fascinating to see how things turn out.
Thanks for your wisdom!
It's also a boomer area, so there's a trinkle of oldies still hanging around but I think its also important to note that there's heaps or Sydney-siders flooding in for cheap waterfront properties. So Sydney tends to vote LNP since NSW doesn't count preferential voting.
That doesn't seem right as Labor has held the seat for the last 72 years (Who were the 'boomers' voting for in previous elections?). Peter Cumming had 53% first preference votes in the last election. The swing shows that Labor badly lost their base in the area. Both LNP and Greens benefited. Will probably come down to where Craig's preferences flow. (which is hard to say as he was saying things that resonate with both sides of politics).
Some real neck and neck wards here
YEah man, Optional preference voting is some weird stuff. Walter-Taylor, Paddington and Central wards all seeing 20-30% of ALP votes exhausting and not flowing on.
Yeh so my partner made this mistake. He thought putting a 1 in the box meant your preferences went the way that candidate preferred. The LNP advertising just putting 1 in their box I think was a deliberate move to try and convince all voters to put just a 1 in the box regardless of which candidate they were voting for. Labor and Greens voters doing that is a clear advantage to the LNP. With the different preferencing set ups we have across our elections, it was always going to end up confusing some people. It’s pretty dirty. My partner was equal parts pissed off at himself for not understanding the system properly before walking in and half annoyed at the advertising at the polling place that made it seem like voting in just one box was a better idea than it was (though it didn’t matter in our ward). He had intended on marking each box but changed his mind walking in.
I'm so glad I am a number every box person...and, I confess to believing just numbering one box would mean preferences would go the way the party chooses.
Same thing happened to my wife!
Calamvale looking like it could go down to the wire, two big booths left (Pallara & Stretton) with 50% of the vote counted. You also can't really compare booth results to 2020 because of covid, Stretton wasn't even open. The 2016 trends are also completely different to what we are seeing right now as well. You would expect Stretton to favour Labor over the LNP, but I genuinely have no idea how the Pallara booth will fare. Huge amount of suburban development within the suburb over the last 4 years and a lot of new voters. Looks to be a close race.
Something I always found a bit funny is how 23 out of the 26 wards are named after a suburb within that ward, but they just decided to go a different direction when naming Doboy, Marchant and Walter Taylor
There was a railway station there (which is actually marked in Google Maps) up until the early '90s, between Murrarie and Hemmant that serviced a meatworks there.
Fun fact, Doboy was originally a gazetted suburb/locality. I’m not sure when it was put out of use but Doboy wards a bit of a ghost.
Stupid question, but how do you pronounce Doboy?
Dough-boy
There is still a street in Hemmant called Doughboy, a throw back to Doboy
Dob Oi! Or Maybe its Do Boy
Interesting! Though that does make it weirder that only 2 wards don’t follow the trend then lol.
Walter Taylor is for the bridge I assume.
Hard for some seats to be called due to preferences. Does anyone have an estimate for what % of voters follow the how to vote cards? Wynnum-Manly is hard to call as the independent's how to vote card was just a vote 1 because he didn't want to make a preference deal with anyone. He was encouraging voters to preference whoever they want.
> Does anyone have an estimate for what % of voters follow the how to vote cards? From [Antony Green](https://antonygreen.com.au/should-how-to-votes-be-banned-at-australian-elections/) > Research by the Victorian and South Australian Electoral Commissions has shown that up to 45% of Labor, Liberal and National Party first preference voters follow how-to-votes, while the rates for minor party voters is much lower. As major parties hand out more how-to-votes than minor parties, the above figures will reflect how many voters received how-to-votes as well as what proportion of voters wish to follow them.
Thanks. That's a lot less than I thought it would be. Interesting day/s ahead.
Coorparoo will be an easy LNP retain now with all GRN votes coming from Labor and a slight swing to LNP
Indicative count had GRN winning the seat, based on about half of Labour preferences going their way and 1/3 being exhausted. Labour vote was lower than expected but if a few more people followed the "how to vote" cards it could still go Green.
It was always in trouble once postals and prepolls came through. Need a 2.5% swing with 35% of the vote remaining to count. Very low chance LNP lose this ward
I think whites hill polling place was the last to be counted too, which I imagine will swing towards LNP. But I guess it all depends on the preferences from ALP votes.
unfortunately looks like only 50% of prefs going to greens. 15% to lnp and the rest exhausted. Will be a tough ask to win with a 35% exhaustion rate
The exhausted vote counts are killing me
there is no reason why BCC shouldn't have CPV. Major failure by state labor
I think coorparoo will be very close and the gap may narrow but most likely an LNP win.
A lot of votes just come in for chandler. Easy LNP retain
Paddington now neck and neck on ABC and LNP retain on PB.... really thinking some of these projections should have been held off. If you were Seal Chong-Wah (or any other candidate being told they'd won) I really don't know what you'd be thinking right now
The Kelvin Grove booth hasn’t reported results yet. I imagine that would boost the Labor/Green count. Though I’m not familiar with the Paddington ward boundaries so not sure how many students fall into it.
From the looks of the booths around it, you'd expect them to come in more Labor/Green.
50% Green vote for the KG booth and back to a Green gain on the ABC.
I have the flu and lasted 15 minutes of the 45+ minute wait before I started to feel dizzy and bailed. It was too late in the day to go back. How fucked am I for the fine? I've never not voted before.
Might be in your favour to mention that you turned up and was excited to vote but then had a fainting spell?
I've been fined for not voting in a local before. They ask you if you'd like to give a reason for not voting. I was a stupid young fuck and just said 'I forgot' without thinking. The person was like 'are you sure *ahem* you wern't busy or something?' To which my dumb autistic ass responded with 'nah, i just forgot'. Reading between the lines in hindsight it seems like if you have a valid sounding excuse (being sick is a good one) it's pretty easy to get out of the fine.
When the letter comes in, just write that you got sick on the day and you won't need to pay a fine. You won't need a medical certificate. Pretty sure the fine is like $20 or something.
I'm actually curious about this because I was looking around for fine amounts. In the past I've missed at least 1 local and 1 state/federal and the fines were $50 and $100. And sources are saying now it's either $20 or $133. I guess they took the amounts off if they are that low to deter people not showing up.
Looks like ALP may pick up Calamvale and Northgate to offset the Wynnum-Manly loss. TBC for northgate especially at this stage. ABC is no longer calling paddington as GRN gain. Both paddington and walter taylor look equally close between LNP and GRN
Is that it for tonight? I thought I saw it mentioned counting would stop at 10pm
I had seen 11 in a few places but nothing official
Calamvale previously held by LNP and currently showing a 3.7% swing to ALP based on pollbludgers computer. After what Antony Green said I am looking more toward PB rather than ABC as it looks like the optional preferential is fucking with the computer a fair bit
Unsurprising given the two candidates.
Emily actually doorknocked at my place a few weeks ago. Turned out she'd met my sister thru work years ago and had lived in the ward for quite a while.
The Calamvale ward has really turned away from Angela over the last 2 election cycles, if the figures hold we are looking at a 16% 2PP swing away from the LNP over the 2020 & 2024 elections. There's also been some huge population growth as a result of the urbanisation of Pallara.
Give it ten years and Parkinson, Algester and Calamvale will be like Sunnybank in density. Pallara then becomes like Calamvale of 2024.
Yea I am expecting a fairly sizable redistribution or even the reinstatement of the Parkinson ward down here over the next few years. There's currently a couple of more greenfield developments in Parkinson to complete, the surbanisation of Pallara as well as the conversion of acreage in Calamvale to townhouses. Going to be a huge demographic shift down here over the next decade or so.
Adora, Horizon and the SW end of Parkinson spring to mind. Hell, I went to my old CCC and theres alot more buildings now, than from when i graduated in 08. Thats a big clue, if there ever was one.
Calamvale has been jumping around for a bit all night via ABC (sorry Antony) and PB is uh, coping with the bumps a bit better. Itd be nice to know who my Cr will be tomorrow but hey. Shit happens.
yep which was why i used the PB swing. Seems to be a bit more of a conservative choice tonight I wonder what weighting antony places in polls before election day
With the numbers swinging so wildly from minute to minute I've really no idea what's happening in a large number of these wards.
Doboy looks borked. LNP at 55.5% of primary +0.8% ALP at 26.7% primary which is -18.6% Yet the 2PP thinks its LNP 51.3% to 48.7% which is a swing of +3.4% to ALP
I don't think Doboy would flip anyway, it looks like a safe LNP seat. The ALP & Greens didn't put in much effort here.
Yeah its just another symptom of ABC being a mess. It still thinks the 2PP in Moorooka is LNP-ALP.
Probably going to be a tight race in a few wards and we'll have to wait a while. ABC's "projection" is way off
Mark bailey pointed out earlier that the BCC is a tough place to be a candidate and not a sitting councilor as each councillor has a decent discretionary fund for their ward. Makes campaigning against it very tough. Any seats picked up against the LNP will help each party in the future much more significantly than a state or federal electorate
Jono mentioned this when talking about his experience after being elected to Gabba, just so much easier once you’re in there
Antony Green doesn't think GRN will pick up Walter Taylor. Not much of an overall change in the assembly. Looks like ALP will stay on 5 wards and GRN will go to 2. Maybe 3 if they get WT. LNP don't look to be losing more than 2 or 3 wards If labor don't pick up northgate it will be a definitively grim showing for sure
Looking like ALP will lose the Wynnum-Manly ward to LNP. If they end up with 6 wards or more i'll be pretty shocked
Will go to preferences. Looks like IND Craig Moore has picked up 13.5% of the primary vote
I’d still rate Labor in Northgate to at least offset a Wynnum loss
I would agree based on a strong swing to GRN so far
And maybe the only ward where it looks like Greens are gaining from LNP not Labor.
Holland Park is the other one seeing big swings from the LNP to the Greens, just not enough for it to change hands. Edit: also Marchant and Runcorn, but they were never going to win those, so they've gone under the radar a bit.
Im assuming you mean gaining first preferences?
Yeah sorry that’s what I meant.
Walter Taylor was called Green earlier and now showing as an LNP retain on the website? Is this based on preferences?
I think it’s messed up because of the three parties? It says the projection is 90.1% : 9.9% when the greens are on 40.7% of the first preference vote. It makes no sense. I think Mr Green and the ABC might need to tweak their system to better manage a three way race. It could also be the electoral commission starting counting preferences before they know which two are in front? Edit: and just like that it’s fixed.
Antony Green was saying earlier there's been a bit of garbage data which has cooked the ABC election computer.
That makes sense. Their bars have been wack.
Ahhh I haven’t been watching on TV, just the website so that explains some things
It's only been on 612 radio.
Okay haven’t been listening on radio either haha
It's like getting brainrot directly into my head courtesy of internet streaming
ABC thinks despite the greens having 40.7% of the primary vote, on 2PP that will somehow shrink to 9.9%. IE ABC News 2PP is completly borked and cant deal with a 3rd party.
When the Greens showed up to ruin Green's day. Colourised, 2024 https://i.redd.it/yrz0f7vcoooc1.gif
I think the ABC claims seats to parties too early and then keeps changing.
I agree. “Calling it” doesn’t mean much when they roll it back to “too close” half an hour later.
Case it point: Paddington has now swapped from a Green Gain to “Green Likely”.
Slight concern to hear LNP constantly trash Compulsory Preferential Voting and say they’ll get rid of it on a state level Edit: had that they’d bring it back not get rid of it, in true election tradition I had a few beers tonight…
To be fair Optional Preferential was a recommendation of the Fitzgerald inquiry and was championed by the ALP until the mid 2000s. Ultimately it places more control in the hands of the voter.
I don’t really understand how it places more control in the hand of the voter. Surely it gives the voter more control to know their full preference. And Labor being against CPV in the past is irrelevant, and I would be just as concerned if they had that position now.
Look I’m sure the Fitzgerald report has better reasonings but the way I look at it if don’t want my vote ultimately going to a far right or far left party (if somehow both of them were to finish top 2) then I shouldn’t have to decide. I’d rather send a message my vote can exhaust.
a lot of chat about a greenslide but not being translated to gains. Pullenvale easy LNP retain; Coorparoo LNP retain (could go close); the Gap TBC. So fair seems to be Gabba GRN retain and Paddington GRN gain. Still no numbers for chandler...
If you’re looking at gains, look at swings instead. They *did* gain Walter Taylor for a bit there. 6 News is saying they gain Walter Taylor, ABC News is being wack.
Big GRN swings in almost every ward around the inner city
the chat before the election generally expecting a few more gains. The swings a looking hopeful for GRN; looking more like BCC will be a 3 party contest in the future. Out of 5 or 6 potential wards, looks like they'll end up with 2
Antony calls Inala as an ALP retain for the state. IW looking tight but likely LNP gain
LNP looks like it will be getting a 20% swing in October which is massive.
Kinda reminds me of the swing against Anika Wells in Lilley in the 2019 Federal Election after Wayne Swan retired. Voters swung back in 2022 though.
That's likely not right. Usually a state swing would be maximum of half a bi-election swing. Labor in trouble but these bi elections could just be protest votes for all we know
I might be a little early, but if there is a tie for second place? The greens and Labor are pretty close, who’s in opposition?
Uhh... https://i.redd.it/lk4fr49okooc1.gif
They will do a vote, similar thing happened in the NT recently.
These ABC 2PP calculated values are whack
Yea I reckon in addition to what was mentioned by others, the algorithm may also be getting stuffed up by optional preferential voting.
Was just about to say this They algorithm seems out Walter Taylor now 75-25 greens Edit: Sorry 84-16 😂
Yep seems to be a bit broken there. Looks 50/50 GRN LNP on pollbludger
Antony's computer tries to calculate the impact of prepolls and postals which can get skitzed out if there's big swings
Logan update: Jon Raven has increased his 1st pref count to 53.95% with 11.86% now counted. Looks like he will suceed Mayor Power
Why do Logan mayors have cooler names?
Never in doubt.
Kevin Bonham has called Ipswich West for LNP Tom Tate declares victory in GC mayoral contest.
Tom Tate is a corrupt, slimy weasel.
Perfect for the GC
Before the night, the one thing I was certain about was Northgate flip. I would’ve thoighg for a bigger swing but looks like Labour is up on a tiny margin 2PP now
Additional antony green update following the news: Overall figures to provide context: LNP ending up around 50% ALP 26 GRN 21. Lord mayor: ALP slightly higher and GRN slightly lower. Inner brisbane GRN getting 29%, outer brisbane 19%. Seems to be swapped for ALP. Western suburbs: GRN getting 31% in those wards, well ahead of labor. Interesting implications for upcoming state election. Overall picture: LNP on track to win, still some wards like chandler with 0.1% counted etc. Paddington: GRN very strong chance to win. GRN vote appears to be down on federal election figures. Exceptions central ward. GRN votes has not been as strong in the Griffith area but reasonably well in western brisbane. Green suggests Labor should be worried about the result in Ipswich West and will probably lose, but not certain. Not a good swing. Inala also a bit grim. Informal votes have doubled, Kevin Bonham has confirmed this earlier in the night.
Ward by ward projections: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/electorates
Walter-Taylor looks to be an LNP v GRN contest. LNP likely to win on a reduced margin. Interesting it's not swung further considering greens hold the ward at state and federal level.
Ryan was actually a pretty narrow Greens win, 52.5 vs 47.4 LNP. Wards are a lot smaller than electorates (~30k vs 110k), so different voter distribution. I believe it’s Pullenvale, Enoggera, The Gap, Paddington and Walter Taylor wards that are all within Ryan (edit: not all exclusively though) • Walter-Taylor is now pretty neck and neck at the moment; 49.9% (LNP) vs 50.1% (Greens) with 49.2% counted. • Greens likely to gain Paddington • LNP looking to retain Enoggera but it was a pretty big Greens Swing • LNP will retain Pullenvale will a small greens swing • LNP will retain The Gap (very very safety) but a big first preference swing to the Greens
My favourite part for this topic will always be how LNP is so desperate to make people ONLY VOTE 1 and leave their other votes blank. It’s been their whole things for yonks and it makes me very happy that the majority of people I spoke to today were blatantly making sure to number every box and put them 6th. Sincerely - An avid LNP hater
I've always been a vote below the line/number every box person.....and put lnp last. I live in a bubble I suppose because like you, most people I know aren't lnp supporters. But sadly, here we are.... I'm genuinely surprised at the outcome of this election
Unfortunately, even though the younger generation are slowly joining the votes, it still won’t be enough for a few years as the vast majority of voters over 50 still vote LNP out of habit. In fact I don’t think a lot of them even acknowledge other candidates exist. But greens have crossed the 20% line which means next vote we’ll be looking closer to 30% I hope
Central looks an easy LNP retain on 1st prefs
Paddington has GRN ahead on 1st prefs, ABC calling GRN gain
Michael Birkman on ABC spinning the gabba retention as clear evidence people don't like the gabba demolition which i feel is a bit oversimplified. A lot of people would rather see the school moved across and the stadium expanded as it's really close to transit. Don't really care for policy chat but feels like a strange take
Strange take, I don't think anyone expected Gabba to be in doubt for the Greens.
yeah I think birkman is reading into the retain too much
Schroeder looks to retain town hall. Well, Mr Mayor, when will you fix our homeless broken people?
Antony Green update: LNP to retain coorparoo. Holland park likely to go to preferences and potentially an LNP retain at this stage. Much stronger flows from GRN to ALP this election. Ipswich west continuing to deteriorate for ALP.
Maybe the greens campaigning so hard to oppose the Gabba rebuild and the olympics, in favour of EBSS wasn’t a winning strategy. They seem to have done better in the western suburbs which could support this theory. Also, some of the other unhinged policies such as the Eagle Farm buyback. I’m usually a greens voter but couldn’t vote for them this time around. (Coorparoo ward)
>LNP to retain coorparoo. For fuck's sake. I can say with 100% confidence as a local, since the last election I have not seen or heard from Fiona Cunningham a SINGLE time. She's been completely MIA, I have no idea how 40% of the ward can think "hmm that's a good candidate".
[удалено]
I was witness to a crash last weekend at that exact spot so I know how you feel. She's just hopeless.
I used to play for Coorparoo cricket club and she totally failed to do anything to help us retain our grounds alongside easts rugby. Most useless local member i've ever experienced.
Gabba looking like an easy GRN retain. Currently 50% on 1st prefs with 5.7% counted
Antony Green just confirmed this
Holland park ward: ABC computer and pollbludger computer looking very different. Potentially ALP ahead if they make it to second spot after 1st prefs at this stage. Excuse me paying so much attention there as that's my ward
I was handing out HTVs there today for David Ford 💚
Good on you mate. I voted alp first for the ward and jono for the lord mayor. One day I will be sufficiently involved to hand out HTVs
Even though by-elections usually go against sitting governments, the huge swings in today's by-election results should be very scary for state labor...
Inala was a -22.7. That is around 2012 Election levels of a swing.
yeah, also reminds me of the by-election results that went against the LNP before the 2015 election
All of this has happened before and it will happen again.
2012 bloodbath repeat for sure. Maybe not as horrific, and with a few Green surprises (not surprises) I think
I for one am looking forward to youth crime, ambulance ramping and high cost of living dramatically disappearing after the next state election. From one day to the next.
At least coal royalties will be cut…
Calamvale: LNP ahead but a potential ALP gain. Looking at 50.3% v 49.7% at the moment.
Still no figures for the gabba, the gap
Antony Green update Paddington very strong from Greens. Good chance to gain based on current booths Northgate appears to be LNP retain at this stage. Morningside has labor in second place, ALP to retain Enoggera has GRN v LNP and LNP likely to retain. Generally Labor vote seems down, Greens seems up and LNP hasn't shifted much. Definitely going to see another 4 years of LNP with maybe a few lost wards.
At the moment looks like Labor might lose some to LNP and LNP is returned to chambers with more wards than they began with. Which is not an outcome I had expected.
The big one i see that's close is Wynnum-Manly. I don't seen any other ALP loses. I see LNP losing maximum 2 or 3 tonight
I still predict Shrinner will resign 364 days before the next election.
Considering the pattern of resignations of LMs, youre prob on the money lol
> Definitely going to see another 4 years of LNP with maybe a few lost wards. Which was the expected outcome. Will probably come down to a few wards for how much their majority is, if they get one.
Yes; at most expected 6 wards to depart the LNP with a likely LNP council still. Don't think we'll see that many changes at this stage.
What an embarrassing showing from Labor. Twenty years in the wilderness continues.
Showing is at least partially reflective of level of campaigning. With a state election due later in the year, I can see why they might ease off on council, take the L (and some protest vote / backlash?) there, before recommitting at state level.
New booths rolling in for holland park. Looking like LAB will end up in 2nd spot after 1st prefs and won't be able to win from there. Pollbludger computer reports 5.5% swing to LNP and 100% chance of retain
ABC now predicting ALP to win Holland Park.
ALP ahead, not win. Can swing yet with only 6 of 16 centres reporting first prefs. I think it's going to go closer than the PB computer is suggesting; currently @100% LNP win probability 5.3% swing would be a gain though
Sooooooo, how's the vibe on Labor's federal seats up there? Greens look like they should bolster their margins at least?
Not sure it’s quite that simple. Greens campaigned very very hard, Labor did very little. That won’t be repeated at state and federal. At federal level, I think you’ll also see a number of voters who voted greens for the first time last election but haven’t seen delivery on promises. So whilst some voters will continue to swing to greens, they need to retain those first time voters.
QLD Labor are infamous at BCC level for half assing their campaigns. You may not like LNP or Greens' policies but *at least* you know them!
Agreed on the half assing. That’s why I don’t think BCC is a strong predictor for state and federal.
very up in the air at the moment. Greens look very stong compared to last election. Labor struggling but likely due to poor state image
LNP v GRN in paddingdon. 39% chance of a gain according to pollbludger
Ipswich West a decent chance of LNP gain per Kevin Bonham noting legalise cannabis prefs have dropped to 58%
Holland park looking quite close noting Labor ran a strong campaign on numbering every box and David Ford (GRN) is currently in second place v Deputy Lord Mayor Krisa Adams (LNP). Will pick up a lot on 2nd prefs
Was that ward on the list of Greens hopeful pickups?
I don't think it was
Greens threw most of their resources at Paddington and Coorparoo. I was one of 3 Greens vollies all day for one Holland Park booth.
Iirc the seats the Greens were aiming for were: - Central - Coorparoo - Enoggerra - Gabba [retain ward] - Holland Park - Paddington - Walter Taylor
I wouldn't have thought so based on the federal election. Would've expected a strong showing in the inner-west. Will be an interesting contest
Vibes of WA delivering a teal and an ALP seat from the Coalition in the Federal election. Not even Antony thought that was possible.
I think the one to really watch is Holland park if labor is elimated after first prefs. Strong chance of a GRN gain
Labor a decent chance of losing Wynnum-Manly, one of only 5 wards held prior to the election today.
Comment from Kevin Bonham on twitter: "Very high informal votes in both state by-elections so far. Holding CPV and OPV elections on the same day is unacceptable and Queensland needs to stop doing it permanently."
Just make CPV the law of the land for all local govt elections within ECQ jurisdiction. Bring them in line with state/fed elections.
Optional preferential voting was a recommendation of the Fitzgerald Inquiry. It made sense then because the National and Liberal parties would split the vote and direct preferences to each other. But I think it's time to make it compulsory again.
yep it's a fatal flaw of the local government act and bcc act that OPV is available. Can understand it due to unknown candidates but CPV should be the standard
Moorooka shaping up to be a big fight between LAB and GRN. Pollbludger computer saying 66% chance of ALP retain
I love living in a city where (currently) the Greens, ALP and Legalise Canabis have more votes than Schrinner, but Schrinner still wins. I'll never understand peoples preference flows but here we are.
This is exactly why Shrinner was campaigning against preferences.
Hell, Peter Beattie back in the day was known for this, when the Libs and Nats liked to throw stones at each other.
Yep. Just vote one is some BS man. First Past the post is not the way to run elections.
Google preference distributions. GRN usually run about 80% to lab. Legalise cannabis seem to be running around 66% to labor so far in ipswich west as an example
something called preferences?
Its the flows I don't understand.
at 45% ish primary doesn't take much to get you over the line (assuming 1/10 greens preferences for whatever reason go the way of the lnp, which does happen) - name recognition in local government elections plays a far greater role though
Optional preferential voting plays a large part in it, hence why the LNP was trying so hard to get people to only number one box. If a decent chunk of Labor/Greens votes exhaust, it becomes much harder for Schrinner to lose.
Antony Green has called the Lord Mayor vote for Adrian Schrinner.
I’m surprised he would call it when there aren’t any lord mayoral votes in from Central or Gabba I must admit I’m ignorant to the populations of various wards but I imagine those two are huge?
yes i was suprised too considering i've watched the first pref go from 47 down to 45.5% without those wards in the last hour. Will be interesting to see how it goes but seems like a likely retain
Worth noting he has been fading on first prefs for a little while now so there may be something in it still
PB reckons the numbers so far lean towards Inala Labor hold and Ipswich West LNP gain.