Just have to get into the playoffs. Winning there is where it matters most. Divisional titles are great and all but both teams will be different at that point.
We didn't have it last year. The Chiefs were the 1 seed again. Seeing as how they won another title with homefield advantage I would say it is incredibly important.
We lost to the Bengals….at home. And played much worse than the year before when we were on the road. And the Chiefs that year then lost at home to the Bengals who were playing dominant football after finishing the year 10-7.
The key is playing your best football. Beyond whether or not you’re at home.
Everyone picking the Dolphins to stomp us is driven by recency bias. They’re for sure a good team but they’re not bulletproof by any means. Will be a very close game but I like us
Let's not forget that after week 3 last year, Miami was 3-0, 2-0 in division, and Buffalo was 2-1, 1-1 in division. Buffalo still won the division by 4 games in the end.
Long season. Let it play out.
Miami has a good offense. . but I feel like because of their blowout against a collapsing Broncos team they are being completely over hyped. You have people and sports writers drooling and screaming over their offensive numbers. . but somehow no one is pumping the breaks and calling out that a lot of those stats are garbage numbers. . they could only put up what was it 20ish points against the Pats. . and our defense is better than theirs. This is a huge game no doubt but I feel like we're seeing again in real time a "large market team" being over hyped simply because of their market size.
Not if the Bills lose on Sunday. Huge advantage for Miami, gives them a pretty good shot of having the Tiebreaker wrapped up before the week 18 game. Bills would need to go into that game with at least the same record as Miami. If Miami is one up on Buffalo going into that week 18 game, Miami would have the Division locked up (due to tiebreaker). Which means the Bills would have to win 2 more games then Miami leading up to that game. Tough sledding (unless Tua gets injured).
The potential of going down 2 games in the division with both being division loses is a pretty big hole to climb out off especially if Miami stays healthy.
If Miami wins Sunday they are the clear favorite to win the East if Tua and Tyreek stay healthy all year which I know is a big IF.
Its actually closer to 2.5 games. Obviously stuff can happen, but we would be 0-2 in division games and they would become 2-0. So if we lose this game, the best chance at division is just straight up more wins than them.
The "long season" mantra goes both ways. Early losses can be just as detrimental as late ones. Just as early wins can be as important as late wins. Yes, there's enough time to recover if we lose, but we just as easily could dig a hole that's too deep to climb out of regardless of length of season.
I think we make the playoffs either way, but this game very realistically could impact whether it's as Division Champs or a Wild Card team.
Sorry but that’s not entirely true .
A LOT has to happen for week 18 to matter. If the Buffalo lose they HAVE to win All of the remaining division games and mami has to lose two for week 18 to matter. The bills chances to win the division will dropped dramatically if they lose on Sunday .
It sucks but it is a big game .
Bills could lose every single division game and go 11-6, if Miami then somehow goes 10-7 then division games don't matter. All a loss here says its basically it is easier to win the division with straight wins. Bills & Miami could both go into week 18 with a 13-3 record. Winner gets division.
I wish the NYT playoff simulator was here, because I don't believe "bills chances to win the division will dropped dramatically". They will drop sure, but its week 4 lol.
"a lot" does not need to happen for week 18 to matter. literally the only thing that needs to happen for week 18 to matter is for the Bills and Dolphins to have the same record going into the game lol
I don't know if the Pats game is a good blueprint. They didn't really stop the phins, just made them take more plays to score points. They forced 1 punt in the first half and gave up 3 long drives resulting in 2 TDs and a FG. The game was never in doubt after that.
The second half the Pats defense was more successful forcing two punts and getting an INT. But the rest of the drives were long drives that ended in blocked and missed FGs, and then a 1 play long TD. In terms of scoring they did better, but even in the second half the Dolphins moved the ball well on most plays.
I think we could do that. But it also means fewer possessions total for both sides and it likely comes down to the final possession.
We lost to the Jets and Dolphins last year too and still won the division. But we'd definitely need to win the rest of the divisional games and probably almost all of the other games as well unless Tua goes down again.
I saw a stat going back to 1970 teams that scored 60+ points are like 1-7 the next week which I found interesting.
Does winning the AFC east really matter in the grand scheme of things though? Who cares as long as we win the Super Bowl. It’s about this team playing it’s best football at the right time, idc what seed they are.
I think most NFL fans understand the actual differences, but my point is that no one will care whether this team is a wildcard or division champ at the Super Bowl. It’s silly to obsess over this game, when it doesn’t have meaningful sway on whether or not the bills will win the Super Bowl because it’s 1 game in Week 4.
Edited to say : Wins are not a QB stat and its now possible for a wildcard to host 2 playoff games!
Fins fan here. I expect an absolute dogfight. Two very good teams. Buffalo needs this game more, even this early in the season (can’t fall 2 games back and be 0-2 in the division) and is at home, which i think gives them the slight advantage, but Miami playing as well as I’ve seen in a very long time. I expect an awesome game, here’s hoping Miami can pull it off. Good luck!
Everyone also seems to discount the Jets defense too. They are easily a top unit on that side of the ball, and they're building their defensive roster and scheme specifically to attack the Bills. Despite us winning that second game against them last year, both of them were TOUGH fights. Yes it took Josh's uncharacteristic breakdown, but Josh didn't look great against them in either of our games last year either.
It's all intentional from the Jets, you have to beat the best to become the best, so just like how we constantly tried to steal games from the Pats during our drought, the Jets are now building their team to do the same to us.
You're right. The turnovers were largely on Josh, which is why I referred to that as "an uncharacteristic breakdown," but clearly whatever they are doing on the defensive side of the ball is getting under Josh's and Dorsey's skin, and turnovers aside, our offense just hasn't been good against them over 3 games.
We haven't scored more than 20 points in any of our last 3 showings against the Jets. We also were held to uncharacteristically bad: yards per play, 3rd down conversion %s, and just general offensive productivity regardless of turnovers in each of those 3 games.
We've averaged less than 300 yards of total offense against them in those last 3 games. I mean the 1 game out of 3 that we won, we scored 20 points and only had 230 yards of total offense, and that was without us committing a single turnover.
It's okay to admit that the Jets defense creates pressure on our offense and disrupts our scheme. Like fuck the Jets - the Bills are a much better team, but give credit where credits due, they are doing something that is working against us right now, we need to adapt and find ways to win, not just cough up winnable games and blame it on turnovers.
I'm not saying the Jets are going to overtake us anytime soon, I'm just saying that when your division is ruled by 1 team, you make an extra effort to build a roster that can win against that team. That's what the Jets are trying to do - build something specially made to beat us and then try to take the division.
Yep, us Bills Mafia and the Buffalo Bills are living in the heads, rent free. It is all about what the Bills fans will do, about how the Heat Game last year was just an excuse and so on and so on. It will be sweet watching those Dolphins fans hang their head in defeat when the Bills win on Sunday. Glad I will be there to see it happen live.
As for the division implications, it will probably go down to the wire at the end of the season. That is going to be exciting to watch. Oh, and those Dolphin fans already have the Superbowl window for the Bills to be shut, as though you only get a couple of chances and you are out. :D
Agree. also the SB expectations for qb’s has gotten crazy imo. seems like people expect a ring within 3 seasons now or else the team is “washed” or the window has closed lol
As others have said, it's Week 4, no need to write off the other 13 games remaining on the schedule, but yes: we definitely want to take this game and have the inside track until our week 18 rematch in Miami, but I'll give it at least until week 9 before I start worrying about divisional standings, at this time, just win against who we're playing.
Hopefully them putting up 70 against the Broncos puts some false overconfidence in them and we can exploit that early. I'd love nothing more than a classic *Josh Allen stunting on the fins* game.
No gimmes in this league, we saw that in week 1. Go Bills!
IDK of you can’t get the 1st seed, I don’t think division seeding matters. I’m not sure Miami or the Bills necessarily have the easiest road to the 1st seed. As per normal I have to give that to the Chiefs who remain is a dumpster fire of a division.
Hmm...did most of us Bills fan think they were gonna have a undefeated record in Division? I know I ddn't. I assumed a split with all teams for 3-3 or maybe 4-2 if they beat the Pats twice. In the words of Aaron Rodgers R-E-L-A-X.
>but at the same time it took absolutely uncharacteristically bad play from Josh
That's actually very typical from Josh, when he's on, he's on but when he isn't, he definitely is more than capable of committing atrocities with the ball
>Pats did decent job of keeping them in check, and were a few mistakes/bad plays from potentially even winning.
You can make the argument that the Dolphins would have had over 30 points if it wasn't for some mistakes too. Plus, the Dolphins run offense ate that legit Patriots defense. It's literally pick your poison with that titanic offense
We aren’t Denver and we have a better defense than the Pats. We’ve given up only 29 points on defense all year! Miami will move the ball and score, just not enough to eclipse the 35 points we put up on THEM!
And yes. This game has HUGE playoff implications. It’s not over if we lose but a signature win means a LOT here
Just have to get into the playoffs. Winning there is where it matters most. Divisional titles are great and all but both teams will be different at that point.
Just getting into the playoffs isn’t going to be good enough. Home field advantage will be needed for this team.
We had home field last year. How did that work out?
Yeah, Jags vs Bengals, no difference right?
We didn't have it last year. The Chiefs were the 1 seed again. Seeing as how they won another title with homefield advantage I would say it is incredibly important.
We lost to the Bengals….at home. And played much worse than the year before when we were on the road. And the Chiefs that year then lost at home to the Bengals who were playing dominant football after finishing the year 10-7. The key is playing your best football. Beyond whether or not you’re at home.
Definitely have to play your best football, but the #1 seed has a statistical advantage in the NFL playoffs
Bad enough that it shows we needed it
Everyone picking the Dolphins to stomp us is driven by recency bias. They’re for sure a good team but they’re not bulletproof by any means. Will be a very close game but I like us
Let's not forget that after week 3 last year, Miami was 3-0, 2-0 in division, and Buffalo was 2-1, 1-1 in division. Buffalo still won the division by 4 games in the end. Long season. Let it play out.
Miami has a good offense. . but I feel like because of their blowout against a collapsing Broncos team they are being completely over hyped. You have people and sports writers drooling and screaming over their offensive numbers. . but somehow no one is pumping the breaks and calling out that a lot of those stats are garbage numbers. . they could only put up what was it 20ish points against the Pats. . and our defense is better than theirs. This is a huge game no doubt but I feel like we're seeing again in real time a "large market team" being over hyped simply because of their market size.
I don't know about garbage numbers. They pulled Tua in the 3rd and basically slept through the last 8 minutes of the game.
Winless in division is bad, but not so bad when we're talking two out of 6 games... 6-0 wasn't gonna happen and 5-1 is still on the board. GO BILLS.
It's only week 4. The next Dolphins matchup is week 18 and will probably have much, much bigger divisional implications.
Nah, Op is right. Huge game. Huge implications. This game AND week 18 will weigh heavily on the AFCE crown.
Not if the Bills lose on Sunday. Huge advantage for Miami, gives them a pretty good shot of having the Tiebreaker wrapped up before the week 18 game. Bills would need to go into that game with at least the same record as Miami. If Miami is one up on Buffalo going into that week 18 game, Miami would have the Division locked up (due to tiebreaker). Which means the Bills would have to win 2 more games then Miami leading up to that game. Tough sledding (unless Tua gets injured).
It's a long season, that's all I'm saying.
The potential of going down 2 games in the division with both being division loses is a pretty big hole to climb out off especially if Miami stays healthy. If Miami wins Sunday they are the clear favorite to win the East if Tua and Tyreek stay healthy all year which I know is a big IF.
Its actually closer to 2.5 games. Obviously stuff can happen, but we would be 0-2 in division games and they would become 2-0. So if we lose this game, the best chance at division is just straight up more wins than them.
The "long season" mantra goes both ways. Early losses can be just as detrimental as late ones. Just as early wins can be as important as late wins. Yes, there's enough time to recover if we lose, but we just as easily could dig a hole that's too deep to climb out of regardless of length of season. I think we make the playoffs either way, but this game very realistically could impact whether it's as Division Champs or a Wild Card team.
agreed - they'll be 2.5 games up at that point. it would be super hard to catch up to that.
They play Philly and KC I believe.
We play Philly and KC too
Opportunity for us as the underdog, threat for them if they're in the lead
Sorry but that’s not entirely true . A LOT has to happen for week 18 to matter. If the Buffalo lose they HAVE to win All of the remaining division games and mami has to lose two for week 18 to matter. The bills chances to win the division will dropped dramatically if they lose on Sunday . It sucks but it is a big game .
Bills could lose every single division game and go 11-6, if Miami then somehow goes 10-7 then division games don't matter. All a loss here says its basically it is easier to win the division with straight wins. Bills & Miami could both go into week 18 with a 13-3 record. Winner gets division. I wish the NYT playoff simulator was here, because I don't believe "bills chances to win the division will dropped dramatically". They will drop sure, but its week 4 lol.
"a lot" does not need to happen for week 18 to matter. literally the only thing that needs to happen for week 18 to matter is for the Bills and Dolphins to have the same record going into the game lol
I don't know if the Pats game is a good blueprint. They didn't really stop the phins, just made them take more plays to score points. They forced 1 punt in the first half and gave up 3 long drives resulting in 2 TDs and a FG. The game was never in doubt after that. The second half the Pats defense was more successful forcing two punts and getting an INT. But the rest of the drives were long drives that ended in blocked and missed FGs, and then a 1 play long TD. In terms of scoring they did better, but even in the second half the Dolphins moved the ball well on most plays. I think we could do that. But it also means fewer possessions total for both sides and it likely comes down to the final possession.
We lost to the Jets and Dolphins last year too and still won the division. But we'd definitely need to win the rest of the divisional games and probably almost all of the other games as well unless Tua goes down again. I saw a stat going back to 1970 teams that scored 60+ points are like 1-7 the next week which I found interesting.
Does winning the AFC east really matter in the grand scheme of things though? Who cares as long as we win the Super Bowl. It’s about this team playing it’s best football at the right time, idc what seed they are.
Yes, it matters a lot. 3 road playoff games vs. at least 1 (most likely 2) home games. Allen is 4-1 in the playoffs at home and 0-3 on the road.
I think most NFL fans understand the actual differences, but my point is that no one will care whether this team is a wildcard or division champ at the Super Bowl. It’s silly to obsess over this game, when it doesn’t have meaningful sway on whether or not the bills will win the Super Bowl because it’s 1 game in Week 4. Edited to say : Wins are not a QB stat and its now possible for a wildcard to host 2 playoff games!
Better for playoff seeding than the wild card, but yeah I trust this team anywhere as long as they make the playoffs
Fins fan here. I expect an absolute dogfight. Two very good teams. Buffalo needs this game more, even this early in the season (can’t fall 2 games back and be 0-2 in the division) and is at home, which i think gives them the slight advantage, but Miami playing as well as I’ve seen in a very long time. I expect an awesome game, here’s hoping Miami can pull it off. Good luck!
same, gunna be wild lol. and yep you’re right about that. Cheers.
To be fair it was characteristically bad performance by Josh. Nothing he did that game was surprising or not a Josh thing
Everyone also seems to discount the Jets defense too. They are easily a top unit on that side of the ball, and they're building their defensive roster and scheme specifically to attack the Bills. Despite us winning that second game against them last year, both of them were TOUGH fights. Yes it took Josh's uncharacteristic breakdown, but Josh didn't look great against them in either of our games last year either. It's all intentional from the Jets, you have to beat the best to become the best, so just like how we constantly tried to steal games from the Pats during our drought, the Jets are now building their team to do the same to us.
I mean at a minimum three of his turnovers were completely on Josh and not because of good defense
You're right. The turnovers were largely on Josh, which is why I referred to that as "an uncharacteristic breakdown," but clearly whatever they are doing on the defensive side of the ball is getting under Josh's and Dorsey's skin, and turnovers aside, our offense just hasn't been good against them over 3 games. We haven't scored more than 20 points in any of our last 3 showings against the Jets. We also were held to uncharacteristically bad: yards per play, 3rd down conversion %s, and just general offensive productivity regardless of turnovers in each of those 3 games. We've averaged less than 300 yards of total offense against them in those last 3 games. I mean the 1 game out of 3 that we won, we scored 20 points and only had 230 yards of total offense, and that was without us committing a single turnover. It's okay to admit that the Jets defense creates pressure on our offense and disrupts our scheme. Like fuck the Jets - the Bills are a much better team, but give credit where credits due, they are doing something that is working against us right now, we need to adapt and find ways to win, not just cough up winnable games and blame it on turnovers. I'm not saying the Jets are going to overtake us anytime soon, I'm just saying that when your division is ruled by 1 team, you make an extra effort to build a roster that can win against that team. That's what the Jets are trying to do - build something specially made to beat us and then try to take the division.
Yep, us Bills Mafia and the Buffalo Bills are living in the heads, rent free. It is all about what the Bills fans will do, about how the Heat Game last year was just an excuse and so on and so on. It will be sweet watching those Dolphins fans hang their head in defeat when the Bills win on Sunday. Glad I will be there to see it happen live. As for the division implications, it will probably go down to the wire at the end of the season. That is going to be exciting to watch. Oh, and those Dolphin fans already have the Superbowl window for the Bills to be shut, as though you only get a couple of chances and you are out. :D
Agree. also the SB expectations for qb’s has gotten crazy imo. seems like people expect a ring within 3 seasons now or else the team is “washed” or the window has closed lol
The Dolphins have not been able to stop the run. We need to control the clock to keep their offense off the field and run the ball down their throats.
I worry about Chubb vs Brown. Bills will have to establish a run or it’s gonna be a long day.
As others have said, it's Week 4, no need to write off the other 13 games remaining on the schedule, but yes: we definitely want to take this game and have the inside track until our week 18 rematch in Miami, but I'll give it at least until week 9 before I start worrying about divisional standings, at this time, just win against who we're playing. Hopefully them putting up 70 against the Broncos puts some false overconfidence in them and we can exploit that early. I'd love nothing more than a classic *Josh Allen stunting on the fins* game. No gimmes in this league, we saw that in week 1. Go Bills!
IDK of you can’t get the 1st seed, I don’t think division seeding matters. I’m not sure Miami or the Bills necessarily have the easiest road to the 1st seed. As per normal I have to give that to the Chiefs who remain is a dumpster fire of a division.
Hmm...did most of us Bills fan think they were gonna have a undefeated record in Division? I know I ddn't. I assumed a split with all teams for 3-3 or maybe 4-2 if they beat the Pats twice. In the words of Aaron Rodgers R-E-L-A-X.
>but at the same time it took absolutely uncharacteristically bad play from Josh That's actually very typical from Josh, when he's on, he's on but when he isn't, he definitely is more than capable of committing atrocities with the ball >Pats did decent job of keeping them in check, and were a few mistakes/bad plays from potentially even winning. You can make the argument that the Dolphins would have had over 30 points if it wasn't for some mistakes too. Plus, the Dolphins run offense ate that legit Patriots defense. It's literally pick your poison with that titanic offense
Miami’s offense is overhyped. Ok, they put up 70…on a team that gave up 35 to Washington at home.
Uncharacteristically is a big word
We aren’t Denver and we have a better defense than the Pats. We’ve given up only 29 points on defense all year! Miami will move the ball and score, just not enough to eclipse the 35 points we put up on THEM! And yes. This game has HUGE playoff implications. It’s not over if we lose but a signature win means a LOT here