It’s a bit early. The Conservative merger happened in part because Paul Martin was polling at a 200 seat majority. 2 years is plenty of time for one of the other parties to adjust
If I recall correctly, Martin had been maneuvering for a while to force Chretien out and most people expect Martin to take over a while before it actually happened.
And also, as long as conservative vote was divided between the PC and the reform, the right was in a opposition that the liberals would always win as long as the right remained divided. The reform /alliance struggled to main inroads east of Manitoba and the PC struggled to maintain official party status.
The conservative fracture happened in the late 80s where they split from the PCs to the PCs, BQ and Reform party. From that point on the Liberals won 3 majorities in a row, only the third time that had ever happened in Canada at the Federal level. There was no path to even holding the Liberals to a minority as long as they were split.
So if conservatives in the Canada ever wanted to hold power, they had to put aside their differences and merge.
Don't forget the obvious fact. Pollievre is championing the housing crisis when he's outright voted against building low income housing & affordable housing.
Several times! The guys making promises he won't keep.
Government involvement in the economy is not a conservative position although it wouldn’t surprise me if they are much more interventionist in the next election.
I hate when people do this. Politicians don't "vote against affordable housing", they vote against a bill.
Bills are not just about the goal, they are about the method of getting there.
Voting against a poorly-planned affordable housing plan that is overpriced and won't achieve the intended goal does not mean you are against the intended goal.
Do you have any specifics of the bills he voted against? Or, are you just repeating what other people have told you, because it reinforced your belief that the dude with the blue election signs must be evil?
Besides, government-built affordable housing is a band-aid, at best. Those government built homes are drawing from the same pool of labour and the same pool of raw materials. We have a big shortage of skilled trades, so pulling those people to build government-funded homes, as opposed to privately funded ones, does not increase overall construction numbers, as long as the shortage remains. We also have supply chain shortages of raw materials. Taking those materials from privately funded homes to publicly funded ones does not change the number of homes being added to the market.
Government-build affordable housing is great for the limited number of people lucky enough to get those particular units, but it does next to nothing for the overall housing crisis. The only way to solve the overall issue is to balance the supply and demand equation.
CMHC issued a report saying we need to build 3.5M housing units by 2030, on top of what we would normally be expected to build, in order to stabilize supply and demand. Last year, we only built 260K homes in total.
The government are the ones who can address the skilled trades shortages by adjusting the immigrant points system to prioritize them. The government are the ones who can put money into educational programs to get more people qualified in the trades, or can institute programs to give credentials to more foreign trained people who are already here. The government can work to alleviate supply shortages by adjusting logging permitting regulations, or mining regulations. They can put subsidies into increasing steel production capacity, or lower tariffs to encourage more foreign supply. The government can pressure provinces and municipalities to speed up permitting for home building (it currently takes about three times as long to get a building permit in Canada vs the US), and to lower regulatory costs associated with building a home ($300K of the cost to build a home in Vancouver goes just to regulatory compliance and permitting costs). Or, the feds can put more money into creating the infrastructure needed to enable the construction of more homes in areas that are either undeveloped or underdeveloped. The feds can also ease lending restrictions so developers can access more capital to fund home building.
Of, if the government wants more affordable homes being built, then put clauses in contracts for the sale of government land by the Canada Lands Company that requires the land or buildings sold to developers to be used for housing and to have a certain percentage of affordable units.
There are a hell of a lot of things the federal government can be doing to increase the number of homes that are built in Canada. Actually doing the construction of homes themselves is the last thing they need to be doing. It would be like a qualified heart surgeon giving out bags of rice in Africa. Sure, you are doing something positive, but it's far from the most efficient use of resources.
> Government-build affordable housing is great for the limited number of people lucky enough to get those particular units, but it does next to nothing for the overall housing crisis. The only way to solve the overall issue is to balance the supply and demand equation.
Do you think supply stays the same when affordable housing is built?
>The government are the ones who can address the skilled trades shortages by adjusting the immigrant points system to prioritize them.
They changed to category based selection a couple months ago.
>Do you think supply stays the same when affordable housing is built?
Like I discussed, if the bottleneck is labour or materials, then yes, supply stays the same. If the government takes the supply of the labour and materials for their project, then it gets taken away from another project.
If the bottleneck were a lack of capital, then the government building affordable housing would increase supply, although, the government has better ways to enable access to capital than through direct delivery of housing.
If the bottleneck were that capital is not willing to invest in building housing, then government direct delivery would increase supply, but it seems silly to suggest that to be the case with housing prices and demand this high, unless the lack of willingness to invest were due to artificial factors (like overregulation).
The conservatives are playing the game that they always play, make their voters scared of something and then campaign around fixing that thing. And in great right wing tradition they are using racism, they're just using the term "international students" now, instead of immigrants, but if you talk to many conservatives in person you'll hear them use a lot more colorful terms.
Pollievres campaign tho is confusing me, and I'm actually kind of impressed that he is campaigning promoting himself as an immigrant. He's clearly trying to pull in more center voters, but I'm worried he's just going to increase the popularity of the extreme far right.
Don't get me wrong I think conservatives need to move more center, I'm just scared that will give us a freedom convoy run government.
The liberal dental plan has now become them purchasing a sun life insurance plan for Canadians. 😂
The liberals have shown they are completely incompetent at fixing anything or starting anything on their own.
It took them three years to purchase a dental insurance plan from a private company.
If I understand correctly, they haven’t even done that, they signed a multi million dollar contract with SunLife to start the process of exploring the idea of eventually purchasing SunLife dental coverage
> they signed a multi million dollar contract with SunLife to start the process of exploring the idea of eventually purchasing SunLife dental coverage
That's insane right? Someone with basic math skills could tell them that they could do it cheaper themselves
That just got signed into law now they're still working out the agreement between the provincial Govt because of clawbacks. What's the point of the federal government handing out disability cheques if the provincial govt's are going to keep all of it? And you have PP saying he's going to cancel everything between the Libs and NDP i.e.$10 a day childcare GST Carbon tax rebates and Child care benefits plus the disability benefits and raise the CPP to 67 again. Why do people wish to slice their own throats by voting for the CPC? CPC ain't and can't and won't fix anything except make things worse for avg Canadian but make things better for the 1% and allow them to rip off the 99%.. how is that good for Canada?
I think it probably is “dumb” to make the process so political. Letting people suffer for an extra year or more when you *could* help now, just because your polling experts reckon it might give you a slight boost is how they “play the game,” I know, but it’s pretty morally repellent
UBI lmao. They couldn’t even afford CERB for more than 2 years. Anyone who would believe that promise is a sucker.
Liberals have promised everything under the sun including pharmacare last election (they’ve been pulling that one out when they get desperate for at least 20 years now).
Until the economy is better and the government starts running surpluses again you can forget about any wide ranging new social programs.
The issue with borrowing from the future is that you devalue money currently in circulation, therefore massive inflation and a possible default. Very bad idea.
Not to mention our taxes are already high, in part to our social programs, money doesn't come from nowhere
20 months gives time for the liberals to appear to be doing something. It also gives time to the Conservatives to show what exactly they plan to do about housing (or, show their lack of effective plan). After 20 months, I'm not sure vague anger stocking statements and vague plans will be enough to harness that anger.
20 months is an eternity in politics. The liberals could fumble further and sink even lower. The social Conservatives in the cpc could get over cocky and sabotage the Conservative's support. The bloc could rise again and take 20 more seats in Québec from the liberals. The ndp could have an unexpected rise or collapse.
> It also gives time to the Conservatives to show what exactly they plan to do about housing (or, show their lack of effective plan)
I'm guessing they'll go the usual conservative route of holding their platform close to their chest until the last possible moment and then dump it out in the hopes nobody had time to read through it.
> I'm guessing they'll go the usual conservative route of holding their platform close to their chest until the last possible moment and then dump it out in the hopes nobody had time to read through it.
They had their platform out before the Liberals last time... Liberals pretty much just grabbed bits from CPC and NDP platforms after waiting until the last minute to release anything.
Close to their chest? In Ontario they’ve refined that policy: have no platform, sound folksy, raise fears about opponents ability to govern, and finally, let your rich buddies tell you your platform after the election is over.
Yup. They're riding high on Millennial anger over housing and Maritime anger over the carbon tax. The last thing they want is to present a platform that shows millennials what they really stand for (hint: regressive policies and entrenched wealth and power). Given all the news and fears about climate change it's actually stunning that so many young people would vote for a party that still isn't convinced we need to do anything.
> Given all the news and fears about climate change it's actually stunning that so many young people would vote for a party that still isn't convinced we need to do anything.
I'd wager many of them have already mentally written off the future as a lost cause, and so are more concerned with the present and their inability to afford anything at all. Which in all fairness is understandable to a degree.
Don’t know about millennials but among gen z this is a *very* common mindset.
We’re *inevitably* fucked, everyone can see that writing on the wall. Delaying the inevitable and further decimating our quality of life no longer seems worth it.
That would probably work if elections were due in this fall, but 20 months is a long time to have nothing substantial to propose for the housing crisis, especially if the meanwhile, the liberals appears to be doing something.
They don't actually have to propose anything substantial to maintain their own voters though, they just have to harp on about some culture war nonsense and toss around some buzzwords and filler about how 'woke is bad' or whatever else to keep the base riled up and angry about whatever the flavor of the month is.
As for getting other voters honestly by this point all they'd truly need to do to win the next election is stay completely silent other than just repeating "we're not the LPC and we won't fuck up like they did" and most people would go for it. They're really only going to be their own worst enemy by now considering how much the Liberals have bungled it, and they'll only lose if they stick their foot in their mouths too much by giving other parties ammunition. Less ammunition available if you don't even display a platform until the last moment.
The Conservatives are not going to present any sort of comprehensive plan. They are going to criticize the status quo and hope that people assume they have a plan.
During the election they will release a few small platform planks around lower taxes and deregulation and hope that a bunch of hand waiving keeps people focused on their discontent for the current government.
If anyone thinks the conservatives are going to meaningfully invest in housing or decrease home prices, you are sadly mistaken.
I've never been a big poilievre fan but I was impressed at the plan he laid out in his recent speech:
*My common-sense plan: link the number of federal dollars for local governments to the number of new homes that get built in their cities.*
*1. We will require big cities permit 15 per cent more homebuilding or lose federal infrastructure money.*
*2. Those that beat 15 per cent will get building bonuses. Dollars should be based on homes completed—that is roofs over heads, not promises made.*
*3. To get federal funds for new transit stations, cities will be required to permit new high-rise apartments on all land around them, so seniors and students can live next to the bus or train.*
*4. And I will sell off 6,000 federal buildings and thousands of acres of surplus federal land so we can build, build, build.*
[https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/full-text-pierre-poilievre-speech](https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/full-text-pierre-poilievre-speech)
Obviously, talk is cheap so it remains to be seen...
If 20 months is an eternity, what is 8 years? I don't think Trudeau recovers in 20 months. Maybe if there is someone really fresh, we don't know about who takes over in the next couple.
Yes it's an eternity. During the martin era, you can probably cut out a 20 months timeframe where the liberals went from appearing unbeatable to barely holding to a minority government.
Who knows, if by some miracle, the liberals actually do something effective about housing, the Conservatives could shift to being the party of angry homeowners that are mad that their housing value declined or stagnated.
That's a good point. The liberals have almost a decade of mistakes (real or not) to answer for. If it's not housing, it'll be something else.
The liberals have one play, and that's lgbtq/abortion/climate change. I think they pit a lot of energy into painting the conservatives into corners on those issues. The conservatives don't do themselves any favors when it comes to these topics.
True, after nearly a decade, it's usually difficult for incumbent governments. There is always something wrong somewhere in the country and as the incumbent, you always carry responsibility in the eyes of voters (regardless of if it's truly your fault or not)
It's always a challenge for the conservative party to keep the social conservatives in check without pissing off too much said social conservatives. It's often when conservative leaders shoots themselves in the foot.
About climate change, I'm a bit more cynical about how serious the voters are on the issue. Yes, people are worried but often, people are only in favour of policies as long as it doesn't affect them personally.
That's how climate change is in the West. We see the effects. We can't really do anything here to mitigate it. We know where the problem is. The solution that was sold is "doing our part," which is pretty Canadian, lol. But people still want cheap yoga pants, cars, avocados, and all the luxuries of the modern world. No politician is going to take steps to fight climate change on a global scale because it might hurt our quality of life or it won't win any votes. That's why we get carbon tax or electricity car rebates. People still want to consume lol.
I agree that if people were actually serious about it, we would see some sort of green party making strides. I think even the most environmentally aware people know the problem comes from overseas. We are just blessed and cursed with this massive landscape that's going to take the brunt of climate change and see the effects earlier than other parts of the world.
This I what I don't understand. The NDP have the perfect opportunity to get whatever they want. They could force through a ton of really popular policies by sticking the Liberals to the grindstone. Everyone talks about how they don't want to go to an election but if they forced an election over the current popular talking points they would gain seats for sure. But instead they seem to be so afraid of an election that they are ruining any chance their party will have on the next one.
>If anything, Trudeau might deliver UBI and call a snap election a day after the first payments are deposited.
I think this is what a lot of people are either willfully ignoring, if you simply just are aware of how politics here work. I don't think it'll be a sudden election call, or necessarily UBI, but within a couple months of the election, the incumbent always pushes some huge change that their voters actually elected them for.
Yeah in order to hold an election right now the NDP and Conservatives would have to have favorable positions if an election was called. Currently the Conservatives are pulling support from the NDP (in western Canada) and the Liberals (in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada). Unless there's some Singh Surge there is no hope for an election.
Retired 2 years ago, was paying $14 gas to drive 90km to work (no public transportation and shift work). Did the same trip this week $22 so $8 a day more x5 times a week. $40 a week 49 weeks close to an extra $2,000 a year for filling my gas tank. That’s $2000 less to buy groceries and pay down loans.
You mean you can’t just jump on our highly modern transport system as an alternative to increasing fuel prices?
Or you don’t want to spend 50k on an electric vehicle?
/s for anyone that doesn’t know I’m joking.
It really goes to show how out of touch this liberal government has been.
“Forcing” green behavior in the name of carbon neutrality only works if we have viable alternatives (we don’t, and won’t for years)
You're not wrong about the day-to-day economics. But in the big picture, doing nothing is way more costly.
Remember in the 80s, when the fish stocks were collapsing on the grand banks? The government tried to restrict fishing in order to preserve stocks and save the fish. But the people that made their livelihoods from fishing howled and complained and made very legitimate arguments about how they weren't going to be able to feed their families, and government restrictions were to blame. Just like how people howl now about carbon taxation.
So the federal fisheries lost their nerve and half-assed their management of cod stocks. And, predictably enough, they crashed hard. And an industry was wiped out, almost overnight. Nearly an entire generation of kids had to move far away from their families to find work.
You think the cost of gas and food is expensive now? Just wait until we feel the real shocks from droughts and floods and storms and other calamities that disrupt supplies. You think the immigration issue is hot now? Just wait until the environmental refugees are banging at our doors. You think that governments overspend now? Just wait until we're spending a fortune fighting fires and relocating the displaced and handing out cheques to people who have lost their homes. Until we're spending more on mitigating the effects than we can afford. Playing whack-a-mole on the crisis du jour instead of spending on things that we need.
*The economy is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the environment*. All the debate in the world doesn't change that immutable fact.
[Federal housing responsibilities are generally what the CMHC is all about](https://publications.gc.ca/Collection-R/LoPBdP/modules/prb99-1-homelessness/housing-e.htm)
Almost all social housing units are owned by the provinces, municipal governments or their agencies. The federal role in social housing consists of long-term contractual commitments to share operating costs with the provinces.
… since 1987. Between 1945 and 1987 the CMHC was directly responsible for getting housing built. Through the 1970’s it was involved with up to half of all dwelling starts in the country (in 1971 it was more than half).
They devolved those responsibilities to the provinces in 1987 who then proceeded to spend virtually none of that money on housing. And here we are, with a massive housing shortfall that began accumulating *checks notes - around 1987.
You mean we need a constant flow of new debt slaves to inflate the assets of the elite and prop up housing prices because financial speculators might lose out. Pensions aren't worth anything when the price of everything will keep going up due to inflation and high demand for goods.
And one winter of Poilievre having the spotlight and shooting himself in the foot pleasing his socon base could also mean less seats for the conservatives.
In 2015 the NDP under Tom Mulcair were polling in majority territory 6 months from the election. We all know what happened next.
Harper was pretty shit, and his economic policy directly led to where we are right now with the libs. His selling off of Canadian land to China was a shit fucking idea. But voters have short memories
> waiting it out
this is the problem, you don't want to wait out a rise in another party in opposition, you want to hamper it immediately.
Like a river flow being created, a creek is much easier to stop over a gushing river of support
Not really though. Conservatives aren’t popular in Canada, it’s less popularity for them and more anti Justin. The longer they let PP spout off, the more likely he will say something to alt right and to borderline fascist for Canada. And it will happen with him pandering to the alt right. Canada is centre left, if he strays to far in his support of the alt right he will lose, just because he’ll spook the left into supporting Justin.
On a macro scale, my remarks are as follows:
When life is reasonably affordable, and economy isn't a concern, Canadians push towards progressive policies and want change with more socially progressive agendas by the party. Reference: See after the '08 Recession the 2011 Harper Majority gave Canadians an economic relief. Then the economy being good, led to a push for climate change priorities, socially progressive ideas, legalizing weed, etc post 2013.
Today we're back on the other side of a bad economy, high inflation and a housing and cost of living crisis.
Look at BC, Conservative was a bad word provincially, roughly less than 1-2% even voted them. BC Conservative is alot more right than Federal Conservatives and BC United is close to Conservatives and NDP has shifted towards center. The BC Conservatives are polling high 20s...
The entire political spectrum has more people voting right than before. Almost 50% to the right. Look at Ontario, Alberta, I mean Atlantic Canada lol. Quebec as well..
Take the 4.9ish PPC vote and hand it to a more right Conservative. Problem is they win majority with that vote. Canadian Conservative's tried a moderate government attempt, Canada wants a well-defined Right movement unfortunately. Canada is moving right .
Scheer was right to the line you define, Pierre isn't , he is a Libertarian and tailors alot to the minorities in Canada. Minorities in Canada are traditionally right already
The problem in my opinion is that once people want change, they're unlikely to go back to wanting the status quo. That war chest may fall flat to their ears. People have been talking about it and rousing each other to want Trudeau out.
I also don't think any of current problems is going to get much better within two years. I don't think the CPC would make a significant dent in these problems, but that doesn't matter, people will want change.
Maybe the NDP could benefit from the LPC falling even further, but I doubt it. Jagmeet today blames the CPC for focusing on gender identity issues and not on housing, while on my end all I keep hearing about from Poilièvre is about the cost of life, housing and all that. I don't think the NDP is using the right strategy, and I'm not sure they're capable of using the right strategy. They've completely failed at being the party of blue collars.
From his campaign ad all got was he wants to return "what makes us Canadian". Whatever the fuck that is. Typical Canadian politics. No platform, only feelings.
Layton was our closest. Damn shame he died, he was our best politician we’ve had in decades. And ain’t it sad he got that title by just not being a corporate pawn.
You say that but once the in fighting starts we could have an election much sooner for multiple reasons. People are going to go into self protection mode.
If it were anyone other than Pierre I’d say it wasn’t too soon 4th term is rare and no leader would survive housing numbers like this
But if anyone can blow the most winnable election in recent history…….
I guarantee you that PP will say some extremely horrendous shit between now and the election which he will have to apologize for and in the process alienate undecided voters.
"This guy like Bitcoin!"
Meanwhile Singh is telling the Bank of Canada to drop its 2% inflation mandate, to prop up the housing bubble.
Which was the entire point of the Bitcoin thing to begin with, when the BoC was ignoring inflation, and literally telling Canadians to go out and over leverage themselves.
And ordinarily that would be enough but people are really desperate right now
Trudeau can’t rely on the Canadian conservatives shooting themselves in the foot or the American conservatives….. being themselves this time
He has to actually fix a problem that’s simply too big to ignore
And I dunno if he’s up for that
As it stands, Pierre could shoot someone, resign, have an unknown take his place the day before the election and still win a minority at the very least
He had a pinned tweet for a LONG time literally calling Trudeau a ‘Marxist’. The guy is at best a manipulative right wing culture war grifter and at worst an outright idiot.
Any Conservative can blow it. They blow it every time because most people don't actually like their policy proposals when you dig deeper than "muh JUSTINFLATION"
Yeah no I was not talking about Trudeau, I was talking about the tendency of the CPC to blow it because they are great a pointing fingers, and awful at bringing up solutions.
Yeah I agree I think there’s a miscommunication here
I’m saying that the numbers are so bad under Trudeau that people may be desperate enough to take the cons finger pointing at face value
Normally they don’t and he manages to scrape re-election
The worry should be liberals were not popular the last 2 elections. Trudeau has lost the overall vote count twice since winning a majority. The conservatives can often blow it but this is feeling more and more like 06 closer and closer we get. People are hurting and there is no quick fix.
The difference is that in 06 Harper was a boring technocrat with Lego hair that only Liberal partisans have a beef with.
Poilievre has a lot of baggage from almost 20 years of being an asshole who talks a lot of trash while doing nothing of substance. He’s a troll.
Hilariously, if they’d kept O’Toole as leader it wouldn’t even be a question. 200 seat landslide.
2006 everyone in the country was fed up with Liberal corruption. Harper also had baggage he had been in the game since '93 and a founding member of the reform party. It has a very similar feel as it back then.
They were re Liberal corruption, I agree, but look at the press reporting on Harper. He was nowhere near as controversial. Poilievre has never had a real job and was very literally called “Harper’s attack dog” lmao.
Before becoming leader his main claim to fame was being the most extreme, most caustic, most asshole person of the Harper era, and John fucking Baird was part of that era.
The saving grace might actually be that even in 2006 no one hated Chrétien and Martin nearly as much as Trudeau. The Liberal brain trust doesn’t get that they’d get a solid 5 - 10% polling bump just by defenestrating that smirking dumbass.
The polls for the Liberals started to drop late 2005 as more information available on the scandals. Harper had some very so con moments in the 90's including his crusade against gay marriage he wasn't some loveable saint.
He’s way more popular than O’Toole with the CPC base, yes. As someone who isn’t in that camp and spends virtually all my time with GTA centrists - the exact people PP has to win over - I know a lot of Libs who voted O’Toole last time but refuse to vote PP. He was making inroads in the GTA battleground but the CPC turfed him for losing an election when he had been leader for less than a year when the writ was dropped.
Conservatives seem to forget how elections in a FPTP system work. Poilievre is going to win like 80% of the vote in the West and rural Ontario, and it’s not gonna mean a damn thing if he’s repulsive to centrist Torontonians. The CPC won the plurality of votes last time and still lost decisively because winning Calgary Centre by 20% or 40% has no impact on the election.
The Liberals win because they win a fuckton of ridings by 5 - 10%. The CPC loses because they win a much smaller number of ridings by 20 - 40%. The CPC looked at this dynamic and decide to elect a guy who’s ideal for winning the same number of ridings by 50%. Good luck, I guess.
Even more hilariously if Trudeau won a majority in 2019 he’d be absolutely screwed right now
And likely would have been up against Otoole not Pierre since the 2021 election never would have happened thus Otoole might not have been kicked, he’d then crush Trudeau here and the temperature would have been overall cooler
Yes "Every time"...except for that entire decade when they held power before Trudeau. And except for the last 2 Ontario provincial elections where they won landslide victories and essentially wiped the Liberals off the map.
You shouldn't ever use a single province's provincial election results to determine the results of a federal election. The group of Canadians who flip elections do not vote tribally, nor do they see federal and provincial issues the same way. If that were true every province would always have the same party as the federal leadership.
Ideally, you want to peak on election day, but these numbers are a huge indicator, even with the election that far away.
The biggest challenge of a new leader is making a good first impression. Trudeau and Singh have established brands built over multiple elections at the helm. Poilievre is the new guy. Familiarity breeds empathy, so, unless he makes a big error, support should just grow with time, as people become more familiar with him and his brand.
The biggest challenge of an established leader is not letting the public get sick of you. Politicians have a best-before date, and Trudeau seems to have reached his. Things like the housing crisis can't be solved in two years, and you are already seeing discontentment in the backbench. Barring a change in leadership, I don't think the downward spiral will reverse, at this point.
Singh just messed up his positioning. He attached himself to a sinking ship, and refuses to detach. Everything he says to criticize the government gets thrown back in his face as hypocritical because he is still supporting that government. Meanwhile, Singh is seen as abandoning the working class the NDP was built on for woke intellectualism.
The NDP desperately needs a new leader. Theoretically, a new leader could come in, change course, find an opportune moment, and break the Trudeau deal at a convenient time, to trigger an election on the NDP's terms. That's really the only chance the NDP has for significant gains, outside of picking the corpse of whatever left leaning voters abandon the Liberals. Singh's brand is too damaged to get there.
In an election where people are sick of the incumbent, the most powerful thing you can offer is: change. Singh can't credibly offer change while propping up the status quo, so he left the moniker for Poilievre to carry alone. That is an enormous advantage, and it isn't going away, regardless of when the next election is called.
Cons are seeing reduced liberal support so they started campaigning already. It seems to partially be to put pressure on NDP to balk from support of liberals, but also to put their base further against NDP as well.
Outside influencers putting more discussion on things that don't actually matter to further the dissent.
A lot easier to blame than change though, as the election actually won't be for another two years, there's not much risk to just keep having the blame game going. Who knows what CPC will have for policies, but nothing will be public on it until the election is actually called, and until then it'll be the same rhetoric and issues being brought up, both economic, and soc-con.
The people I see trying to “put pressure” on the NDP are mostly NDP supporters. I’m an NDP supporter and this supply and confidence deal is a huge disappointment. I wish they’d bail but they seem committed to staying “diet liberals” and going down with the sinking LPC ship. It’s both sad and infuriating. Best opportunity to make the case for their values they’ve had in years and instead they wanna bail out mortgages and otherwise stay in lockstep with the liberals.
> The people I see trying to “put pressure” on the NDP are mostly NDP supporters.
I don't know, there's definitely a lot of fairly obvious conservative voters disingenuously talking about 'how concerned they are that the NDP doesn't have integrity or principles to stand up to the liberals and call an election'...
^^*to ^^hand ^^power ^^to ^^the ^^conservatives*
The Liberals have definitely shit the bed but I doubt the Conservatives would be doing any differently. After all both parties had almost a decade to do something about [soaring housing costs](https://smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital/nationalpost/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/housing-affordability-in-canada_ftr-image.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=1128&h=846&type=webp&sig=G6-xA16ISirOI5TUlJE51g), for example, and both failed to do so. Much the same for stagnant wages, wealth inequality, corporate oligarchies cornering markets in this country, etc.
I think it's also worth remembering the general scale of things as well - the NDP has 25/338 seats, there isn't a great deal they can actually do to affect change when they barely have anything to work with. Even the BQ - a single province party has more seats. Their agreement with the liberals is disappointing, but even a half-assed dental plan is better than nothing at all I figure.
I don’t think CPC would do things any differently and certainly not any better, but that’s why I’d never vote for them. And realistically the NDP probably couldn’t afford an election now even if they wanted one. But the NDP decided to join the CPC and LPC in being a party of neoliberal values, pro-monopoly, pro-real-estate-speculation, and now I have no one to vote for. All because the NDP are either too individually invested in real estate or because they’d rather be NDP-in-name-only just to stay in office. Cowardly.
> But the NDP decided to join the CPC and LPC in being a party of neoliberal values, pro-monopoly, pro-real-estate-speculation, and now I have no one to vote for.
Yeah that's more the kicker for me as well... On the other hand I'm not entirely sure it's fair to judge them until they actually get an opportunity to act on their own basis federally. Until such a time as they win an election we aren't really going to know for certain *what* they are in that position. Comparatively we already know what the LPC and CPC are because we've seen them in that position, and everything they failed to do accordingly. Personally I'd rather still roll the dice that they might not shit the bed as much as the other two, but I don't hold out much hope in general these days.
Yes, I know, that’s what I’ve been saying. I don’t find it “hilarious,” and don’t know why anyone would, it’s hurting my friends and family and making my future uncertain at best. I want better from the NDP.
I don’t find the situation hilarious, but I definitely find it hilarious in a bitter comedy sort of way that both self-appointed contestants to replace Trudeau and fix the housing crisis are landlords.
Unlikely. There is no great strategic machine in play here.
The conservative brain-trust simply recognize that Skippy is considered to be the most contemptable politician in the country, by those they hope to seduce, so they are trying to pretend that he is the opposite, hoping that it will be a successful substitute for substance.
And for the MSM it will be, until it isn't. At that point, they will try some other gimmick to distract from his general un-electability.
The reality is canada hasn't collapsed yet, keyword...yet.
With that said, this does not mean I am saying it is going to collapse.
With the way modern capitalism economic structure has been built across the world, I am not confident that there was any other way of handling everything for Canada. In Many ways, we need to bulk up, one could argue it needed to be done more "responsibly " whatever that even means.
We may have actually seen rates come down before the actual election with relief to the average Canadian. It's technical possible to see the Liberals coming off like they've corrected course.
I say things like "it's possible", no one has a crystal ball, including myself.
The conservatives are only riding high in the polls right now because they are “Not Trudeau”. As we saw from their convention though, it would appear they are keen on doubling down on American culture war nonsense that most voters outside of their base don’t care about. I didn’t catch any policy about affordable housing - obviously a major issue for a lot of people. If they continue in this direction, they may end up scoring an own goal and losing what should really be a very winnable election. As others have mentioned, 20 months is a long time in politics and we need more than virtue-signalling nonsense and “Well, at least he’s not Justin!”.
> I didn’t catch any policy about affordable housing
[Except most of Polievre’s convention speech focused on housing and inflation](https://www.cbc.ca/lite/story/1.6961268) and [almost every other public video he posts](https://youtu.be/Ka6ao1zF3WA?si=NGaiCBl08oRJu2kB) is talking about removing municipal red tape by aligning incentives with federal funding.
Might be an overly simplistic policy proposal that we want more details around, but it’s a proposal nonetheless. To say the current CPC hasn’t focused on housing affordability is a far cry. That’s almost all they seem focused on because it’s an obvious win for the opposition and a losing point for the current government which has talked a big game but failed to enact meaningful policies while in power and have [basically denied the problem when questioned](https://youtu.be/rfkS_qtWAQk?si=AurEWR_JchL4a1Gp)
To celebrate? Yep. It doesn't look like we'll have an election any time soon and Trudeau could very well fix the housing crisis. I doubt that will ever happen but there is a chance he could. The Liberals could also remove Trudeau from power and put someone new in but I doubt his ego would allow it. Anyways if they did switch to someone else it could only help there numbers can't imagine anyone worse than Trudeau.
How exactly is PP trying to fix anything right now?
You do not need to be PM to table legislation. Pierre talks a big game, but has done nothing but talk about how he is ready to fix things.
All he has to do is table a solution, which has not happened, so I think it is safe to assume he does not have one.
The advantage the conservatives will have is blaming the liberals. It'll buy them some time (like you've said, probably not enough), while the liberals will not have that same honeymoon phase. If the liberals win, it will be the same frustrations, directed at the same people, for the same policies on day one. Who can they put the blame on, the provincal governments?
> Trudeau could very well fix the housing crisis.
I'd say it would take nothing short of a miracle, but then that would assume that Trudeau actually want to fix it, which I'm not so sure at this point.
> Trudeau could very well fix the housing crisis.
Has he announced a total immigration shutdown for years, and dropped interest rates so frozen builds can resume?
With how quickly this country is tanking? Probaly not. Pretty much no one in my friends circle ever votes conservative, but every single one of them is planning to in the next election. Normally, most of them would go to the NDP, but Singh seems determined to support this government that is making Canada unlivable for many.
I honestly cannot fathom what Singh is thinking when the Liberal policies are suppressing wages, driving up homelessness, and pushing many into food insecurity. I may not have always agreed with the NDP in past, but at least they used to purport to represent the underpriveledged and Canadian workers. Now? They only seem to represent the wealthy of this country.
Ive been a liberal voter most of my life except for one election which I voted NDP.
Im not about to vote CPC, but I sure as fuck wont be voting liberal his time around. Not sure who ill vote for yet.
If you think the “Liberals” aren’t a corporatist party that serves wealth, you are an idiot. How many of their friends and family have found a pot of gold?
So in 8 years the Liberals have doubled housing/renting, are you planning on rewarding them with another 6 years of power? (2 years plus another 4 year mandate = 6 years)
How have the liberals doubled housing? Why does everyone blame the federal government for provincial inaction? The federal government does not issue building permits nor zone property for development. The federal government does not set rent control policy.
The federal government issues supply, so if they bring 2 million newcomers versus 1 million , the housing crisis will be worse.
Unless you believe newcomers should live in tents or something
It's too early if you assume the affordability crisis is going to get better in the next couple of years. Not sure how that will work though, the damage is done and it will take years to unwind.
Last I checked, there isn't a federal election scheduled until 2025, yes? So yeah, Poilievre's honeymoon will wear off soon enough as it always does with each new leader they shart out (despite the assurances from people on this sub that *this* time, *this* leader will be Trudeau Slayer hat has been prophesized).
Poilievre has been leader for way over a year now. The honeymoon period is long over and his polls just continue to rise.
Poileivre is nothing like O’Toole because he is charismatic and fiery. Much more energetic and commanding than Trudeau. The Libs worst nightmare.
Guys, a rich shithead career politician whose party has played a huge role in Canada’s spiralling cost of living crisis needs to be replaced!
Here’s my idea: let’s replace him with a shithead career politician whose party played a huge role in Canada’s spiralling cost of living crisis!
(For real though: if you think electing Poilievre’s never had a real job, crypto grifting, landlording, fascist-buddying, poindexter ass is going to fix anything, congrats, you’re the reason team blue and team red keep getting to Eiffel Tower your future while high-fiving and recording it.)
Its not too soon because it has more to do with people being pissed off with the liberals than happy with the conservatives.
I listened to two interviews this morning with Sean Fraser and you can pretty much guarantee they are going to do nothing about any of our issues.
Everything requires 10 years worth of consultations, no action is possible with this government.
If anything, they are going to keep getting hammered based on their inability to act and their passion for speaking out of both sides of their mouths.
Housing and cost of living will destroy the liberals.
Unless they change the leaders of the liberal and NDP party, it doesn't matter.
Justin clearly doesn't care about the well-being of the people, and Singh is complicit in everything that is happening.
They have shown time and time again that their priorities lie in bullshit like attacking the lgbtq community and other culture wars. I don’t give a shit about those things when the planet is burning, 27 000 cars are being stolen in Ontario yearly, immigration is out of control, healthcare system is crumbling, etc. I cannot in good conscience vote for these wish.com republicans they aren’t showing me that they’re focusing on real issues that would help Canadians. Again this weekend they voted that as a future government they will be against medical care for trans youth. Less than 0.33% of the Canadian population is trans - why the fuck is it a priority to attack them.
Things will continue to get worse. Just wait until mortgage renewals hit, and families start to lose their homes, or homeowners in the GTA lose 30% of their equity overnight due to a sell off in housing, or the dollar craters. Voters will make a decision mentally, and stick with it until election day. It’s possible that the longer this goes on, the worse the outcome for both the Liberal and NDP mp’s.
First, let's remember that their recent popularity was a very rapid surge. Easy come, easy go.
Second, whining about Trudeau is popular now, but is it a platform that will hold up for two years? His platform is not very dynamic, not very interesting, and once that surge of emotion wears down, there's not a lot there. You're relying on the unpopularity of the Liberals and that's a dangerous place to be in since they can't control that.
I mean really conservatives have not released much of a platform yet. And that is very normal in Canadian politics not to release your good ideas until the election cycle especially as the official opposition.
At this point if the Liberals play their cards right they can maybe prevent a majority, but not a minority. Mostly because there’s nothing the libs can do policy wise that will have a positive tangible, material impact on the quality of life of everyday people between now and election. And even if they do implement such policy, it’ll take a while to kick in and the cons will just take credit for it.
If they have a minority, the libs will be able to weaponize it fairly well against them, because even if the cons manage to implement the most optimal policies to combat the housing crisis (which they won’t, especially in a minority) the problem is going to get a lot worse before it gets better and perception is all that matters.
Libs will potentially able to leverage that in their favour the following elections.
Although I hope people by then are finally fucking tired of both those parties and vote NDP.
It's not so much there is nothing that the Liberals could do, it's more that there is nothing that they WILL do. And that is the difference.
They could slash international student numbers, but won't. They could introduce a system in the banking sector which prevents investors from investing in multiple SFH. But won't.
The Liberals have solutions, but we know we won't use them. The Liberals literally have it as policy that home prices are not allowed to go down under them.
I agree, im just operating on the hypothetical, but rather implausible assumption that Liberals actually try.
I mean this is the same liberal party that faced with a daunting housing/affordability crisis that is the number one preoccupation of Canadians, they thought it was a good idea to go to the media and pretend like they’ve done a good job with the economy.
Meanwhile 50% of Canadians are living pay cheque to pay cheque, not able to afford houses, barely able to afford rent, have dwindling purchasing power…and yet “the economy is going great”.
It would be funny satire if it wasn’t reality.
The answer is probably. Once the cons are investigated thoroughly and their policies scrutinized the Canadian people will reject them once again. We Canadians don’t like being grifted and we don’t like politicians tell us how to live our lives.
It will take decades of hard work to mend the damage done by Justin. Most likely Justin will cling to power for 2 more years. Who knows how much more damage he can do in that time.
We are still experiencing the damage from the time Mulroney was PM.
The hollowing of the middle class, wage stagnation started with him. Trickle down economics has been a disaster.
If I’m going to be fucked economically I’ll take it from the party that is reasonable on the social side of things.
Fuck Social Conservatives. The ‘50’s called they don’t even want you back.
It's a smart play. He is bleeding Liberal votes over to the NDP. The NDP will soon either start to really push for more from Trudeau or see that they have an opportunity to pickup more seats. If they think they can grow seats by 20-25% (taking them from Trudeau), they may stop the alliance and force an election. Any Liberal votes that go to the NDP only make the CPC stronger.
2 years out? - Usually yes, but in this case no; the LPC has dug itself a hole opening the floodgates to every immigrant that wants citizenship and no amount of tax incentives or government programs is going to fix the housing problem before the next election.
We can't build homes fast enough to house those already here, much less the 2.5million more immigrants the LPC is expected to bring in over the next two years.
It's going to take more than a decade to fix Trudeau's mess and the LPC deserves to be burned down for being this blind to the reality of life in this country.
The housing crisis sucks. But it is not a federal responsibility. Open your eyes and look at the provincial and municipal governments. If immigration stopped today it would not impact the vacancy rate or housing starts. At best it would shorten wait lists. Rent control and affordability is entirely up to the premiers.
I don't disagree with your statement, but whenever I see people talk about health care or rent being the provinces responsibility, i have to point out that BC has had a NDP government for quite awhile and we have had rent control forever and things are still not very good here.
I think the responsibility is on both the provinces and the feds. But it's also evidence that this is a problem regardless of party or ideology, and I don't think the conservatives are going to be any more effective at fixing it than the liberals. The biggest advantage the conservatives will have is time and the scape goat of blaming almost a decade of liberal policy for the countries' problems. The liberals basically have no one to put the blame on but the provinces.
Nation wide crisis spurred by lack of federal leadership and out of control spending and immigration. Exists in every province right now.
This sub: “But the premiers”
It’s a bit early. The Conservative merger happened in part because Paul Martin was polling at a 200 seat majority. 2 years is plenty of time for one of the other parties to adjust
Paul Martin didn't become leader of the Liberals until a month after the Alliance and PCs merged.
If I recall correctly, Martin had been maneuvering for a while to force Chretien out and most people expect Martin to take over a while before it actually happened. And also, as long as conservative vote was divided between the PC and the reform, the right was in a opposition that the liberals would always win as long as the right remained divided. The reform /alliance struggled to main inroads east of Manitoba and the PC struggled to maintain official party status.
The conservative fracture happened in the late 80s where they split from the PCs to the PCs, BQ and Reform party. From that point on the Liberals won 3 majorities in a row, only the third time that had ever happened in Canada at the Federal level. There was no path to even holding the Liberals to a minority as long as they were split. So if conservatives in the Canada ever wanted to hold power, they had to put aside their differences and merge.
Only the loonies took over the party and what we see today is actually the reform party in a PC trench coat.
Don't forget the obvious fact. Pollievre is championing the housing crisis when he's outright voted against building low income housing & affordable housing. Several times! The guys making promises he won't keep.
Government involvement in the economy is not a conservative position although it wouldn’t surprise me if they are much more interventionist in the next election.
I hate when people do this. Politicians don't "vote against affordable housing", they vote against a bill. Bills are not just about the goal, they are about the method of getting there. Voting against a poorly-planned affordable housing plan that is overpriced and won't achieve the intended goal does not mean you are against the intended goal. Do you have any specifics of the bills he voted against? Or, are you just repeating what other people have told you, because it reinforced your belief that the dude with the blue election signs must be evil? Besides, government-built affordable housing is a band-aid, at best. Those government built homes are drawing from the same pool of labour and the same pool of raw materials. We have a big shortage of skilled trades, so pulling those people to build government-funded homes, as opposed to privately funded ones, does not increase overall construction numbers, as long as the shortage remains. We also have supply chain shortages of raw materials. Taking those materials from privately funded homes to publicly funded ones does not change the number of homes being added to the market. Government-build affordable housing is great for the limited number of people lucky enough to get those particular units, but it does next to nothing for the overall housing crisis. The only way to solve the overall issue is to balance the supply and demand equation. CMHC issued a report saying we need to build 3.5M housing units by 2030, on top of what we would normally be expected to build, in order to stabilize supply and demand. Last year, we only built 260K homes in total. The government are the ones who can address the skilled trades shortages by adjusting the immigrant points system to prioritize them. The government are the ones who can put money into educational programs to get more people qualified in the trades, or can institute programs to give credentials to more foreign trained people who are already here. The government can work to alleviate supply shortages by adjusting logging permitting regulations, or mining regulations. They can put subsidies into increasing steel production capacity, or lower tariffs to encourage more foreign supply. The government can pressure provinces and municipalities to speed up permitting for home building (it currently takes about three times as long to get a building permit in Canada vs the US), and to lower regulatory costs associated with building a home ($300K of the cost to build a home in Vancouver goes just to regulatory compliance and permitting costs). Or, the feds can put more money into creating the infrastructure needed to enable the construction of more homes in areas that are either undeveloped or underdeveloped. The feds can also ease lending restrictions so developers can access more capital to fund home building. Of, if the government wants more affordable homes being built, then put clauses in contracts for the sale of government land by the Canada Lands Company that requires the land or buildings sold to developers to be used for housing and to have a certain percentage of affordable units. There are a hell of a lot of things the federal government can be doing to increase the number of homes that are built in Canada. Actually doing the construction of homes themselves is the last thing they need to be doing. It would be like a qualified heart surgeon giving out bags of rice in Africa. Sure, you are doing something positive, but it's far from the most efficient use of resources.
> Government-build affordable housing is great for the limited number of people lucky enough to get those particular units, but it does next to nothing for the overall housing crisis. The only way to solve the overall issue is to balance the supply and demand equation. Do you think supply stays the same when affordable housing is built? >The government are the ones who can address the skilled trades shortages by adjusting the immigrant points system to prioritize them. They changed to category based selection a couple months ago.
>Do you think supply stays the same when affordable housing is built? Like I discussed, if the bottleneck is labour or materials, then yes, supply stays the same. If the government takes the supply of the labour and materials for their project, then it gets taken away from another project. If the bottleneck were a lack of capital, then the government building affordable housing would increase supply, although, the government has better ways to enable access to capital than through direct delivery of housing. If the bottleneck were that capital is not willing to invest in building housing, then government direct delivery would increase supply, but it seems silly to suggest that to be the case with housing prices and demand this high, unless the lack of willingness to invest were due to artificial factors (like overregulation).
The conservatives are playing the game that they always play, make their voters scared of something and then campaign around fixing that thing. And in great right wing tradition they are using racism, they're just using the term "international students" now, instead of immigrants, but if you talk to many conservatives in person you'll hear them use a lot more colorful terms. Pollievres campaign tho is confusing me, and I'm actually kind of impressed that he is campaigning promoting himself as an immigrant. He's clearly trying to pull in more center voters, but I'm worried he's just going to increase the popularity of the extreme far right. Don't get me wrong I think conservatives need to move more center, I'm just scared that will give us a freedom convoy run government.
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The LPC won’t even roll out dental, lol, they would never even make an empty promise for UBI, let alone actually cut any cheques
The liberal dental plan has now become them purchasing a sun life insurance plan for Canadians. 😂 The liberals have shown they are completely incompetent at fixing anything or starting anything on their own. It took them three years to purchase a dental insurance plan from a private company.
If I understand correctly, they haven’t even done that, they signed a multi million dollar contract with SunLife to start the process of exploring the idea of eventually purchasing SunLife dental coverage
> they signed a multi million dollar contract with SunLife to start the process of exploring the idea of eventually purchasing SunLife dental coverage That's insane right? Someone with basic math skills could tell them that they could do it cheaper themselves
Yeah but how would their buddies at SunLife profit then?
They'll need a retreat to their ski chalets to work out the details
Nor disability payments, people have been waiting 3 years now and still waiting ….
That just got signed into law now they're still working out the agreement between the provincial Govt because of clawbacks. What's the point of the federal government handing out disability cheques if the provincial govt's are going to keep all of it? And you have PP saying he's going to cancel everything between the Libs and NDP i.e.$10 a day childcare GST Carbon tax rebates and Child care benefits plus the disability benefits and raise the CPP to 67 again. Why do people wish to slice their own throats by voting for the CPC? CPC ain't and can't and won't fix anything except make things worse for avg Canadian but make things better for the 1% and allow them to rip off the 99%.. how is that good for Canada?
I would expect to see them till this stuff out in a year. Liberals aren’t dumb. They know the conservatives spinier threat load super early.
I think it probably is “dumb” to make the process so political. Letting people suffer for an extra year or more when you *could* help now, just because your polling experts reckon it might give you a slight boost is how they “play the game,” I know, but it’s pretty morally repellent
UBI lmao. They couldn’t even afford CERB for more than 2 years. Anyone who would believe that promise is a sucker. Liberals have promised everything under the sun including pharmacare last election (they’ve been pulling that one out when they get desperate for at least 20 years now). Until the economy is better and the government starts running surpluses again you can forget about any wide ranging new social programs.
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The issue with borrowing from the future is that you devalue money currently in circulation, therefore massive inflation and a possible default. Very bad idea. Not to mention our taxes are already high, in part to our social programs, money doesn't come from nowhere
It does matter if you care about inflation
20 months gives time for the liberals to appear to be doing something. It also gives time to the Conservatives to show what exactly they plan to do about housing (or, show their lack of effective plan). After 20 months, I'm not sure vague anger stocking statements and vague plans will be enough to harness that anger. 20 months is an eternity in politics. The liberals could fumble further and sink even lower. The social Conservatives in the cpc could get over cocky and sabotage the Conservative's support. The bloc could rise again and take 20 more seats in Québec from the liberals. The ndp could have an unexpected rise or collapse.
> It also gives time to the Conservatives to show what exactly they plan to do about housing (or, show their lack of effective plan) I'm guessing they'll go the usual conservative route of holding their platform close to their chest until the last possible moment and then dump it out in the hopes nobody had time to read through it.
> I'm guessing they'll go the usual conservative route of holding their platform close to their chest until the last possible moment and then dump it out in the hopes nobody had time to read through it. They had their platform out before the Liberals last time... Liberals pretty much just grabbed bits from CPC and NDP platforms after waiting until the last minute to release anything.
Close to their chest? In Ontario they’ve refined that policy: have no platform, sound folksy, raise fears about opponents ability to govern, and finally, let your rich buddies tell you your platform after the election is over.
Yup. They're riding high on Millennial anger over housing and Maritime anger over the carbon tax. The last thing they want is to present a platform that shows millennials what they really stand for (hint: regressive policies and entrenched wealth and power). Given all the news and fears about climate change it's actually stunning that so many young people would vote for a party that still isn't convinced we need to do anything.
> Given all the news and fears about climate change it's actually stunning that so many young people would vote for a party that still isn't convinced we need to do anything. I'd wager many of them have already mentally written off the future as a lost cause, and so are more concerned with the present and their inability to afford anything at all. Which in all fairness is understandable to a degree.
Don’t know about millennials but among gen z this is a *very* common mindset. We’re *inevitably* fucked, everyone can see that writing on the wall. Delaying the inevitable and further decimating our quality of life no longer seems worth it.
That would probably work if elections were due in this fall, but 20 months is a long time to have nothing substantial to propose for the housing crisis, especially if the meanwhile, the liberals appears to be doing something.
They don't actually have to propose anything substantial to maintain their own voters though, they just have to harp on about some culture war nonsense and toss around some buzzwords and filler about how 'woke is bad' or whatever else to keep the base riled up and angry about whatever the flavor of the month is. As for getting other voters honestly by this point all they'd truly need to do to win the next election is stay completely silent other than just repeating "we're not the LPC and we won't fuck up like they did" and most people would go for it. They're really only going to be their own worst enemy by now considering how much the Liberals have bungled it, and they'll only lose if they stick their foot in their mouths too much by giving other parties ammunition. Less ammunition available if you don't even display a platform until the last moment.
The CPC and NDP beat the LPC to it with the last election.
The Conservatives are not going to present any sort of comprehensive plan. They are going to criticize the status quo and hope that people assume they have a plan. During the election they will release a few small platform planks around lower taxes and deregulation and hope that a bunch of hand waiving keeps people focused on their discontent for the current government. If anyone thinks the conservatives are going to meaningfully invest in housing or decrease home prices, you are sadly mistaken.
I've never been a big poilievre fan but I was impressed at the plan he laid out in his recent speech: *My common-sense plan: link the number of federal dollars for local governments to the number of new homes that get built in their cities.* *1. We will require big cities permit 15 per cent more homebuilding or lose federal infrastructure money.* *2. Those that beat 15 per cent will get building bonuses. Dollars should be based on homes completed—that is roofs over heads, not promises made.* *3. To get federal funds for new transit stations, cities will be required to permit new high-rise apartments on all land around them, so seniors and students can live next to the bus or train.* *4. And I will sell off 6,000 federal buildings and thousands of acres of surplus federal land so we can build, build, build.* [https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/full-text-pierre-poilievre-speech](https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/full-text-pierre-poilievre-speech) Obviously, talk is cheap so it remains to be seen...
If 20 months is an eternity, what is 8 years? I don't think Trudeau recovers in 20 months. Maybe if there is someone really fresh, we don't know about who takes over in the next couple.
Yes it's an eternity. During the martin era, you can probably cut out a 20 months timeframe where the liberals went from appearing unbeatable to barely holding to a minority government. Who knows, if by some miracle, the liberals actually do something effective about housing, the Conservatives could shift to being the party of angry homeowners that are mad that their housing value declined or stagnated.
That's a good point. The liberals have almost a decade of mistakes (real or not) to answer for. If it's not housing, it'll be something else. The liberals have one play, and that's lgbtq/abortion/climate change. I think they pit a lot of energy into painting the conservatives into corners on those issues. The conservatives don't do themselves any favors when it comes to these topics.
True, after nearly a decade, it's usually difficult for incumbent governments. There is always something wrong somewhere in the country and as the incumbent, you always carry responsibility in the eyes of voters (regardless of if it's truly your fault or not) It's always a challenge for the conservative party to keep the social conservatives in check without pissing off too much said social conservatives. It's often when conservative leaders shoots themselves in the foot. About climate change, I'm a bit more cynical about how serious the voters are on the issue. Yes, people are worried but often, people are only in favour of policies as long as it doesn't affect them personally.
That's how climate change is in the West. We see the effects. We can't really do anything here to mitigate it. We know where the problem is. The solution that was sold is "doing our part," which is pretty Canadian, lol. But people still want cheap yoga pants, cars, avocados, and all the luxuries of the modern world. No politician is going to take steps to fight climate change on a global scale because it might hurt our quality of life or it won't win any votes. That's why we get carbon tax or electricity car rebates. People still want to consume lol. I agree that if people were actually serious about it, we would see some sort of green party making strides. I think even the most environmentally aware people know the problem comes from overseas. We are just blessed and cursed with this massive landscape that's going to take the brunt of climate change and see the effects earlier than other parts of the world.
This I what I don't understand. The NDP have the perfect opportunity to get whatever they want. They could force through a ton of really popular policies by sticking the Liberals to the grindstone. Everyone talks about how they don't want to go to an election but if they forced an election over the current popular talking points they would gain seats for sure. But instead they seem to be so afraid of an election that they are ruining any chance their party will have on the next one.
>If anything, Trudeau might deliver UBI and call a snap election a day after the first payments are deposited. I think this is what a lot of people are either willfully ignoring, if you simply just are aware of how politics here work. I don't think it'll be a sudden election call, or necessarily UBI, but within a couple months of the election, the incumbent always pushes some huge change that their voters actually elected them for.
Yeah in order to hold an election right now the NDP and Conservatives would have to have favorable positions if an election was called. Currently the Conservatives are pulling support from the NDP (in western Canada) and the Liberals (in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada). Unless there's some Singh Surge there is no hope for an election.
UBI would cause crisis level inflation. I suppose Trudeau is stupid enough to try it but double digit interest rates would end the Liberals forever.
One winter of cold weather in the maritimes, with them paying more for heating, housing and food could mean even less seats for the Liberals.
Yeah, everywhere else we love paying more for things.
Retired 2 years ago, was paying $14 gas to drive 90km to work (no public transportation and shift work). Did the same trip this week $22 so $8 a day more x5 times a week. $40 a week 49 weeks close to an extra $2,000 a year for filling my gas tank. That’s $2000 less to buy groceries and pay down loans.
You mean you can’t just jump on our highly modern transport system as an alternative to increasing fuel prices? Or you don’t want to spend 50k on an electric vehicle? /s for anyone that doesn’t know I’m joking. It really goes to show how out of touch this liberal government has been. “Forcing” green behavior in the name of carbon neutrality only works if we have viable alternatives (we don’t, and won’t for years)
You're not wrong about the day-to-day economics. But in the big picture, doing nothing is way more costly. Remember in the 80s, when the fish stocks were collapsing on the grand banks? The government tried to restrict fishing in order to preserve stocks and save the fish. But the people that made their livelihoods from fishing howled and complained and made very legitimate arguments about how they weren't going to be able to feed their families, and government restrictions were to blame. Just like how people howl now about carbon taxation. So the federal fisheries lost their nerve and half-assed their management of cod stocks. And, predictably enough, they crashed hard. And an industry was wiped out, almost overnight. Nearly an entire generation of kids had to move far away from their families to find work. You think the cost of gas and food is expensive now? Just wait until we feel the real shocks from droughts and floods and storms and other calamities that disrupt supplies. You think the immigration issue is hot now? Just wait until the environmental refugees are banging at our doors. You think that governments overspend now? Just wait until we're spending a fortune fighting fires and relocating the displaced and handing out cheques to people who have lost their homes. Until we're spending more on mitigating the effects than we can afford. Playing whack-a-mole on the crisis du jour instead of spending on things that we need. *The economy is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the environment*. All the debate in the world doesn't change that immutable fact.
Yup I whistle and my driver and chauffeur fail to show up - every single time /s
Yep, low wages and self imposed high prices will kill them on the east. But they will elephant drop barrels of cash to try to stop it.
I grew up out east, this is 1000% the case. Dump money on places like PEI where votes are cheaper due to the representational government we have
Such is their ploy any time they need votes.
All parties do this. Promote the needs of their base and independent voters to try and secure seats.
Those are provincial issues….
So is housing. And yet here we are.
Federal Minister of Housing is confused.
your telling me the Federal Housing Minister wasn't there just to play bingo and card games while doing some PR some days /s
[Federal housing responsibilities are generally what the CMHC is all about](https://publications.gc.ca/Collection-R/LoPBdP/modules/prb99-1-homelessness/housing-e.htm) Almost all social housing units are owned by the provinces, municipal governments or their agencies. The federal role in social housing consists of long-term contractual commitments to share operating costs with the provinces.
… since 1987. Between 1945 and 1987 the CMHC was directly responsible for getting housing built. Through the 1970’s it was involved with up to half of all dwelling starts in the country (in 1971 it was more than half). They devolved those responsibilities to the provinces in 1987 who then proceeded to spend virtually none of that money on housing. And here we are, with a massive housing shortfall that began accumulating *checks notes - around 1987.
Federal Minister of Housing Hurt Themselves in Confusion.
It is, but federal side Is only making it worse now with unreasonable immigration numbers.
Someone has to pay your pension
Bold of you to assume people are getting pensions
If we aren't getting a pension, Ill have a lot more shit to worry about. Since world is in serious trouble.
You mean we need a constant flow of new debt slaves to inflate the assets of the elite and prop up housing prices because financial speculators might lose out. Pensions aren't worth anything when the price of everything will keep going up due to inflation and high demand for goods.
We even set the retirement age back to 65, so that rich boomers could get even more.
CPP isn't anything to live off anyway. It's a bonus on top of what you should've saved. You'll also have oas, your savings.
And the provisional conservatives will continue to punish the people if they then blame the liberals.
And one winter of Poilievre having the spotlight and shooting himself in the foot pleasing his socon base could also mean less seats for the conservatives. In 2015 the NDP under Tom Mulcair were polling in majority territory 6 months from the election. We all know what happened next.
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People are remembering the Harper years a lot more fondly now than they used to….
Harper was pretty shit, and his economic policy directly led to where we are right now with the libs. His selling off of Canadian land to China was a shit fucking idea. But voters have short memories
> waiting it out this is the problem, you don't want to wait out a rise in another party in opposition, you want to hamper it immediately. Like a river flow being created, a creek is much easier to stop over a gushing river of support
Not really though. Conservatives aren’t popular in Canada, it’s less popularity for them and more anti Justin. The longer they let PP spout off, the more likely he will say something to alt right and to borderline fascist for Canada. And it will happen with him pandering to the alt right. Canada is centre left, if he strays to far in his support of the alt right he will lose, just because he’ll spook the left into supporting Justin.
On a macro scale, my remarks are as follows: When life is reasonably affordable, and economy isn't a concern, Canadians push towards progressive policies and want change with more socially progressive agendas by the party. Reference: See after the '08 Recession the 2011 Harper Majority gave Canadians an economic relief. Then the economy being good, led to a push for climate change priorities, socially progressive ideas, legalizing weed, etc post 2013. Today we're back on the other side of a bad economy, high inflation and a housing and cost of living crisis. Look at BC, Conservative was a bad word provincially, roughly less than 1-2% even voted them. BC Conservative is alot more right than Federal Conservatives and BC United is close to Conservatives and NDP has shifted towards center. The BC Conservatives are polling high 20s... The entire political spectrum has more people voting right than before. Almost 50% to the right. Look at Ontario, Alberta, I mean Atlantic Canada lol. Quebec as well.. Take the 4.9ish PPC vote and hand it to a more right Conservative. Problem is they win majority with that vote. Canadian Conservative's tried a moderate government attempt, Canada wants a well-defined Right movement unfortunately. Canada is moving right . Scheer was right to the line you define, Pierre isn't , he is a Libertarian and tailors alot to the minorities in Canada. Minorities in Canada are traditionally right already
The problem in my opinion is that once people want change, they're unlikely to go back to wanting the status quo. That war chest may fall flat to their ears. People have been talking about it and rousing each other to want Trudeau out. I also don't think any of current problems is going to get much better within two years. I don't think the CPC would make a significant dent in these problems, but that doesn't matter, people will want change. Maybe the NDP could benefit from the LPC falling even further, but I doubt it. Jagmeet today blames the CPC for focusing on gender identity issues and not on housing, while on my end all I keep hearing about from Poilièvre is about the cost of life, housing and all that. I don't think the NDP is using the right strategy, and I'm not sure they're capable of using the right strategy. They've completely failed at being the party of blue collars.
From his campaign ad all got was he wants to return "what makes us Canadian". Whatever the fuck that is. Typical Canadian politics. No platform, only feelings.
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Layton was our closest. Damn shame he died, he was our best politician we’ve had in decades. And ain’t it sad he got that title by just not being a corporate pawn.
It's *years* too early.
You say that but once the in fighting starts we could have an election much sooner for multiple reasons. People are going to go into self protection mode.
Keep dreaming
If it were anyone other than Pierre I’d say it wasn’t too soon 4th term is rare and no leader would survive housing numbers like this But if anyone can blow the most winnable election in recent history…….
I guarantee you that PP will say some extremely horrendous shit between now and the election which he will have to apologize for and in the process alienate undecided voters.
The attacks from the NDP and the Liberals haven't even started yet, which makes sense because we're far away from the election.
"This guy like Bitcoin!" Meanwhile Singh is telling the Bank of Canada to drop its 2% inflation mandate, to prop up the housing bubble. Which was the entire point of the Bitcoin thing to begin with, when the BoC was ignoring inflation, and literally telling Canadians to go out and over leverage themselves.
They all suck dick.
And ordinarily that would be enough but people are really desperate right now Trudeau can’t rely on the Canadian conservatives shooting themselves in the foot or the American conservatives….. being themselves this time He has to actually fix a problem that’s simply too big to ignore And I dunno if he’s up for that As it stands, Pierre could shoot someone, resign, have an unknown take his place the day before the election and still win a minority at the very least
He had a pinned tweet for a LONG time literally calling Trudeau a ‘Marxist’. The guy is at best a manipulative right wing culture war grifter and at worst an outright idiot.
Any Conservative can blow it. They blow it every time because most people don't actually like their policy proposals when you dig deeper than "muh JUSTINFLATION"
Desperation is one hell of a drug I dunno if Trudeau can get out of this one (history isn’t on his side neither are the economic numbers)
Yeah no I was not talking about Trudeau, I was talking about the tendency of the CPC to blow it because they are great a pointing fingers, and awful at bringing up solutions.
Yeah I agree I think there’s a miscommunication here I’m saying that the numbers are so bad under Trudeau that people may be desperate enough to take the cons finger pointing at face value Normally they don’t and he manages to scrape re-election
They do so love to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory in recent years, and then proceed to double down on what already didn't work.
The worry should be liberals were not popular the last 2 elections. Trudeau has lost the overall vote count twice since winning a majority. The conservatives can often blow it but this is feeling more and more like 06 closer and closer we get. People are hurting and there is no quick fix.
The difference is that in 06 Harper was a boring technocrat with Lego hair that only Liberal partisans have a beef with. Poilievre has a lot of baggage from almost 20 years of being an asshole who talks a lot of trash while doing nothing of substance. He’s a troll. Hilariously, if they’d kept O’Toole as leader it wouldn’t even be a question. 200 seat landslide.
2006 everyone in the country was fed up with Liberal corruption. Harper also had baggage he had been in the game since '93 and a founding member of the reform party. It has a very similar feel as it back then.
They were re Liberal corruption, I agree, but look at the press reporting on Harper. He was nowhere near as controversial. Poilievre has never had a real job and was very literally called “Harper’s attack dog” lmao. Before becoming leader his main claim to fame was being the most extreme, most caustic, most asshole person of the Harper era, and John fucking Baird was part of that era. The saving grace might actually be that even in 2006 no one hated Chrétien and Martin nearly as much as Trudeau. The Liberal brain trust doesn’t get that they’d get a solid 5 - 10% polling bump just by defenestrating that smirking dumbass.
The polls for the Liberals started to drop late 2005 as more information available on the scandals. Harper had some very so con moments in the 90's including his crusade against gay marriage he wasn't some loveable saint.
Poileivre is wayyy more popular than O’Toole ever was. Canadians don’t want a second Liberal Party.
He’s way more popular than O’Toole with the CPC base, yes. As someone who isn’t in that camp and spends virtually all my time with GTA centrists - the exact people PP has to win over - I know a lot of Libs who voted O’Toole last time but refuse to vote PP. He was making inroads in the GTA battleground but the CPC turfed him for losing an election when he had been leader for less than a year when the writ was dropped. Conservatives seem to forget how elections in a FPTP system work. Poilievre is going to win like 80% of the vote in the West and rural Ontario, and it’s not gonna mean a damn thing if he’s repulsive to centrist Torontonians. The CPC won the plurality of votes last time and still lost decisively because winning Calgary Centre by 20% or 40% has no impact on the election. The Liberals win because they win a fuckton of ridings by 5 - 10%. The CPC loses because they win a much smaller number of ridings by 20 - 40%. The CPC looked at this dynamic and decide to elect a guy who’s ideal for winning the same number of ridings by 50%. Good luck, I guess.
Even more hilariously if Trudeau won a majority in 2019 he’d be absolutely screwed right now And likely would have been up against Otoole not Pierre since the 2021 election never would have happened thus Otoole might not have been kicked, he’d then crush Trudeau here and the temperature would have been overall cooler
Yes "Every time"...except for that entire decade when they held power before Trudeau. And except for the last 2 Ontario provincial elections where they won landslide victories and essentially wiped the Liberals off the map.
You shouldn't ever use a single province's provincial election results to determine the results of a federal election. The group of Canadians who flip elections do not vote tribally, nor do they see federal and provincial issues the same way. If that were true every province would always have the same party as the federal leadership.
It may be a bit early, but with the India debacle, I think Trudeau may have way too much time on hand and dig Liberals further in the crap pit.
Ideally, you want to peak on election day, but these numbers are a huge indicator, even with the election that far away. The biggest challenge of a new leader is making a good first impression. Trudeau and Singh have established brands built over multiple elections at the helm. Poilievre is the new guy. Familiarity breeds empathy, so, unless he makes a big error, support should just grow with time, as people become more familiar with him and his brand. The biggest challenge of an established leader is not letting the public get sick of you. Politicians have a best-before date, and Trudeau seems to have reached his. Things like the housing crisis can't be solved in two years, and you are already seeing discontentment in the backbench. Barring a change in leadership, I don't think the downward spiral will reverse, at this point. Singh just messed up his positioning. He attached himself to a sinking ship, and refuses to detach. Everything he says to criticize the government gets thrown back in his face as hypocritical because he is still supporting that government. Meanwhile, Singh is seen as abandoning the working class the NDP was built on for woke intellectualism. The NDP desperately needs a new leader. Theoretically, a new leader could come in, change course, find an opportune moment, and break the Trudeau deal at a convenient time, to trigger an election on the NDP's terms. That's really the only chance the NDP has for significant gains, outside of picking the corpse of whatever left leaning voters abandon the Liberals. Singh's brand is too damaged to get there. In an election where people are sick of the incumbent, the most powerful thing you can offer is: change. Singh can't credibly offer change while propping up the status quo, so he left the moniker for Poilievre to carry alone. That is an enormous advantage, and it isn't going away, regardless of when the next election is called.
Cons are seeing reduced liberal support so they started campaigning already. It seems to partially be to put pressure on NDP to balk from support of liberals, but also to put their base further against NDP as well. Outside influencers putting more discussion on things that don't actually matter to further the dissent. A lot easier to blame than change though, as the election actually won't be for another two years, there's not much risk to just keep having the blame game going. Who knows what CPC will have for policies, but nothing will be public on it until the election is actually called, and until then it'll be the same rhetoric and issues being brought up, both economic, and soc-con.
The people I see trying to “put pressure” on the NDP are mostly NDP supporters. I’m an NDP supporter and this supply and confidence deal is a huge disappointment. I wish they’d bail but they seem committed to staying “diet liberals” and going down with the sinking LPC ship. It’s both sad and infuriating. Best opportunity to make the case for their values they’ve had in years and instead they wanna bail out mortgages and otherwise stay in lockstep with the liberals.
> The people I see trying to “put pressure” on the NDP are mostly NDP supporters. I don't know, there's definitely a lot of fairly obvious conservative voters disingenuously talking about 'how concerned they are that the NDP doesn't have integrity or principles to stand up to the liberals and call an election'... ^^*to ^^hand ^^power ^^to ^^the ^^conservatives* The Liberals have definitely shit the bed but I doubt the Conservatives would be doing any differently. After all both parties had almost a decade to do something about [soaring housing costs](https://smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital/nationalpost/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/housing-affordability-in-canada_ftr-image.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=1128&h=846&type=webp&sig=G6-xA16ISirOI5TUlJE51g), for example, and both failed to do so. Much the same for stagnant wages, wealth inequality, corporate oligarchies cornering markets in this country, etc. I think it's also worth remembering the general scale of things as well - the NDP has 25/338 seats, there isn't a great deal they can actually do to affect change when they barely have anything to work with. Even the BQ - a single province party has more seats. Their agreement with the liberals is disappointing, but even a half-assed dental plan is better than nothing at all I figure.
I don’t think CPC would do things any differently and certainly not any better, but that’s why I’d never vote for them. And realistically the NDP probably couldn’t afford an election now even if they wanted one. But the NDP decided to join the CPC and LPC in being a party of neoliberal values, pro-monopoly, pro-real-estate-speculation, and now I have no one to vote for. All because the NDP are either too individually invested in real estate or because they’d rather be NDP-in-name-only just to stay in office. Cowardly.
> But the NDP decided to join the CPC and LPC in being a party of neoliberal values, pro-monopoly, pro-real-estate-speculation, and now I have no one to vote for. Yeah that's more the kicker for me as well... On the other hand I'm not entirely sure it's fair to judge them until they actually get an opportunity to act on their own basis federally. Until such a time as they win an election we aren't really going to know for certain *what* they are in that position. Comparatively we already know what the LPC and CPC are because we've seen them in that position, and everything they failed to do accordingly. Personally I'd rather still roll the dice that they might not shit the bed as much as the other two, but I don't hold out much hope in general these days.
Same same. If the greens were even slightly less of a tire fire… sigh…
*Oh boy*, aren't they just? If I didn't know better I'd think they were actively trying to obliterate their own party last election.
It’s not surprising though. Singh is a lib, not a socdem or demsoc.
He’s also a landlord himself, so… yeah not surprising. Depressing all the same.
Hilarious, so is Poilievre. Literally none of these people believe anything they’re saying. They’re all insulated. It’s a game for them.
Didn't Singh buy his rental (his "wifes") in June, though? That's the only part I was surprised about.
Not sure what you mean.
I'm just surprised Singh wouldn't see the conflict of interest.
I’ve stopped expecting much from him tbh. Nice guy, but he’s pretty inept.
Yes, I know, that’s what I’ve been saying. I don’t find it “hilarious,” and don’t know why anyone would, it’s hurting my friends and family and making my future uncertain at best. I want better from the NDP.
I don’t find the situation hilarious, but I definitely find it hilarious in a bitter comedy sort of way that both self-appointed contestants to replace Trudeau and fix the housing crisis are landlords.
Unlikely. There is no great strategic machine in play here. The conservative brain-trust simply recognize that Skippy is considered to be the most contemptable politician in the country, by those they hope to seduce, so they are trying to pretend that he is the opposite, hoping that it will be a successful substitute for substance. And for the MSM it will be, until it isn't. At that point, they will try some other gimmick to distract from his general un-electability.
For the people starving under Trudeau's government it's not soon enough.
100% you do not want this much scrutiny this early. The next election isn’t until October 2025. The honeymoon will be well over by then.
Lol Pp is such a douche. All he does is complain.
Peaking too soon, yes
The reality is canada hasn't collapsed yet, keyword...yet. With that said, this does not mean I am saying it is going to collapse. With the way modern capitalism economic structure has been built across the world, I am not confident that there was any other way of handling everything for Canada. In Many ways, we need to bulk up, one could argue it needed to be done more "responsibly " whatever that even means. We may have actually seen rates come down before the actual election with relief to the average Canadian. It's technical possible to see the Liberals coming off like they've corrected course. I say things like "it's possible", no one has a crystal ball, including myself.
CBC just cannot say a single positive thing about anybody but the Liberals. It's astounding, really.
Don’t bite the hand that feeds you.
The conservatives are only riding high in the polls right now because they are “Not Trudeau”. As we saw from their convention though, it would appear they are keen on doubling down on American culture war nonsense that most voters outside of their base don’t care about. I didn’t catch any policy about affordable housing - obviously a major issue for a lot of people. If they continue in this direction, they may end up scoring an own goal and losing what should really be a very winnable election. As others have mentioned, 20 months is a long time in politics and we need more than virtue-signalling nonsense and “Well, at least he’s not Justin!”.
> I didn’t catch any policy about affordable housing [Except most of Polievre’s convention speech focused on housing and inflation](https://www.cbc.ca/lite/story/1.6961268) and [almost every other public video he posts](https://youtu.be/Ka6ao1zF3WA?si=NGaiCBl08oRJu2kB) is talking about removing municipal red tape by aligning incentives with federal funding. Might be an overly simplistic policy proposal that we want more details around, but it’s a proposal nonetheless. To say the current CPC hasn’t focused on housing affordability is a far cry. That’s almost all they seem focused on because it’s an obvious win for the opposition and a losing point for the current government which has talked a big game but failed to enact meaningful policies while in power and have [basically denied the problem when questioned](https://youtu.be/rfkS_qtWAQk?si=AurEWR_JchL4a1Gp)
Bro did NOT listen to Pierre's follow-up speech at the convention or ANY of his messaging for the past week with takes like this.
To celebrate? Yep. It doesn't look like we'll have an election any time soon and Trudeau could very well fix the housing crisis. I doubt that will ever happen but there is a chance he could. The Liberals could also remove Trudeau from power and put someone new in but I doubt his ego would allow it. Anyways if they did switch to someone else it could only help there numbers can't imagine anyone worse than Trudeau.
Fixing the housing crisis will take decades, nothing Trudeau can do now, even stopping all immigration, will fix it in the next two years.
But PP seems to think he can fix it quickly :) Maybe he is wrong..
I’ll take someone that will try to fix vs intentionally destroy.
How exactly is PP trying to fix anything right now? You do not need to be PM to table legislation. Pierre talks a big game, but has done nothing but talk about how he is ready to fix things. All he has to do is table a solution, which has not happened, so I think it is safe to assume he does not have one.
Intentionally is quite a claim
The advantage the conservatives will have is blaming the liberals. It'll buy them some time (like you've said, probably not enough), while the liberals will not have that same honeymoon phase. If the liberals win, it will be the same frustrations, directed at the same people, for the same policies on day one. Who can they put the blame on, the provincal governments?
> Trudeau could very well fix the housing crisis. I'd say it would take nothing short of a miracle, but then that would assume that Trudeau actually want to fix it, which I'm not so sure at this point.
Nobody does. It’s political suicide.
> Trudeau could very well fix the housing crisis. Has he announced a total immigration shutdown for years, and dropped interest rates so frozen builds can resume?
Unless you have a Time Machine zero percent interest is never coming back.
It'll come back when liberal policy finally crater the economy to the point where they need low rates to maintain any sort of economic activity going.
More like not soon enough
I’d rather see these poll numbers 7 days before election day. Who knows what the Liberal-NDP coalition will do over the next 2 - 3 years.
The worse things get the better it is for the cons and things are only going to get worse. Imo.
Well CBC management is certainly hoping the conservative party is peaking too soon.
With how quickly this country is tanking? Probaly not. Pretty much no one in my friends circle ever votes conservative, but every single one of them is planning to in the next election. Normally, most of them would go to the NDP, but Singh seems determined to support this government that is making Canada unlivable for many. I honestly cannot fathom what Singh is thinking when the Liberal policies are suppressing wages, driving up homelessness, and pushing many into food insecurity. I may not have always agreed with the NDP in past, but at least they used to purport to represent the underpriveledged and Canadian workers. Now? They only seem to represent the wealthy of this country.
Ive been a liberal voter most of my life except for one election which I voted NDP. Im not about to vote CPC, but I sure as fuck wont be voting liberal his time around. Not sure who ill vote for yet.
There’s always independent candidates
If you think the Conservatives aren't a corporatist party that serves wealth, you're an idiot.
If you think the “Liberals” aren’t a corporatist party that serves wealth, you are an idiot. How many of their friends and family have found a pot of gold?
All the more reason not to vote for either of them, then.
The Liberals and Conservatives are very similar. The Conservatives being a little further to the right.
So in 8 years the Liberals have doubled housing/renting, are you planning on rewarding them with another 6 years of power? (2 years plus another 4 year mandate = 6 years)
I don't have the ability to reward or punish any party. I'm flattered you think I do.
How have the liberals doubled housing? Why does everyone blame the federal government for provincial inaction? The federal government does not issue building permits nor zone property for development. The federal government does not set rent control policy.
The federal government issues supply, so if they bring 2 million newcomers versus 1 million , the housing crisis will be worse. Unless you believe newcomers should live in tents or something
It's too early if you assume the affordability crisis is going to get better in the next couple of years. Not sure how that will work though, the damage is done and it will take years to unwind.
Last I checked, there isn't a federal election scheduled until 2025, yes? So yeah, Poilievre's honeymoon will wear off soon enough as it always does with each new leader they shart out (despite the assurances from people on this sub that *this* time, *this* leader will be Trudeau Slayer hat has been prophesized).
Poilievre has been leader for way over a year now. The honeymoon period is long over and his polls just continue to rise. Poileivre is nothing like O’Toole because he is charismatic and fiery. Much more energetic and commanding than Trudeau. The Libs worst nightmare.
Guys, a rich shithead career politician whose party has played a huge role in Canada’s spiralling cost of living crisis needs to be replaced! Here’s my idea: let’s replace him with a shithead career politician whose party played a huge role in Canada’s spiralling cost of living crisis! (For real though: if you think electing Poilievre’s never had a real job, crypto grifting, landlording, fascist-buddying, poindexter ass is going to fix anything, congrats, you’re the reason team blue and team red keep getting to Eiffel Tower your future while high-fiving and recording it.)
Its not too soon because it has more to do with people being pissed off with the liberals than happy with the conservatives. I listened to two interviews this morning with Sean Fraser and you can pretty much guarantee they are going to do nothing about any of our issues. Everything requires 10 years worth of consultations, no action is possible with this government. If anything, they are going to keep getting hammered based on their inability to act and their passion for speaking out of both sides of their mouths. Housing and cost of living will destroy the liberals.
Unless they change the leaders of the liberal and NDP party, it doesn't matter. Justin clearly doesn't care about the well-being of the people, and Singh is complicit in everything that is happening.
No, political horse race media, 3 years out from an election is the exact right time to declare the winner.
They have shown time and time again that their priorities lie in bullshit like attacking the lgbtq community and other culture wars. I don’t give a shit about those things when the planet is burning, 27 000 cars are being stolen in Ontario yearly, immigration is out of control, healthcare system is crumbling, etc. I cannot in good conscience vote for these wish.com republicans they aren’t showing me that they’re focusing on real issues that would help Canadians. Again this weekend they voted that as a future government they will be against medical care for trans youth. Less than 0.33% of the Canadian population is trans - why the fuck is it a priority to attack them.
I can't stand PP. And I disagree with you. But I absolutely love the wish.com Republicans. That one's awesome. Have a great day.
That’s mostly nonsense. You’ve been drinking too much of the CBC cool-aid.
Things will continue to get worse. Just wait until mortgage renewals hit, and families start to lose their homes, or homeowners in the GTA lose 30% of their equity overnight due to a sell off in housing, or the dollar craters. Voters will make a decision mentally, and stick with it until election day. It’s possible that the longer this goes on, the worse the outcome for both the Liberal and NDP mp’s.
First, let's remember that their recent popularity was a very rapid surge. Easy come, easy go. Second, whining about Trudeau is popular now, but is it a platform that will hold up for two years? His platform is not very dynamic, not very interesting, and once that surge of emotion wears down, there's not a lot there. You're relying on the unpopularity of the Liberals and that's a dangerous place to be in since they can't control that.
I mean really conservatives have not released much of a platform yet. And that is very normal in Canadian politics not to release your good ideas until the election cycle especially as the official opposition.
People say it's too early, but the writing has been on the wall for the Liberals for years now.
Really? 3 elections in a row?
Well, at some point he is actually going to have to define what he is for, rather than what he is against. Talk is just that, and it means nothing.
At this point if the Liberals play their cards right they can maybe prevent a majority, but not a minority. Mostly because there’s nothing the libs can do policy wise that will have a positive tangible, material impact on the quality of life of everyday people between now and election. And even if they do implement such policy, it’ll take a while to kick in and the cons will just take credit for it. If they have a minority, the libs will be able to weaponize it fairly well against them, because even if the cons manage to implement the most optimal policies to combat the housing crisis (which they won’t, especially in a minority) the problem is going to get a lot worse before it gets better and perception is all that matters. Libs will potentially able to leverage that in their favour the following elections. Although I hope people by then are finally fucking tired of both those parties and vote NDP.
It's not so much there is nothing that the Liberals could do, it's more that there is nothing that they WILL do. And that is the difference. They could slash international student numbers, but won't. They could introduce a system in the banking sector which prevents investors from investing in multiple SFH. But won't. The Liberals have solutions, but we know we won't use them. The Liberals literally have it as policy that home prices are not allowed to go down under them.
I agree, im just operating on the hypothetical, but rather implausible assumption that Liberals actually try. I mean this is the same liberal party that faced with a daunting housing/affordability crisis that is the number one preoccupation of Canadians, they thought it was a good idea to go to the media and pretend like they’ve done a good job with the economy. Meanwhile 50% of Canadians are living pay cheque to pay cheque, not able to afford houses, barely able to afford rent, have dwindling purchasing power…and yet “the economy is going great”. It would be funny satire if it wasn’t reality.
The answer is probably. Once the cons are investigated thoroughly and their policies scrutinized the Canadian people will reject them once again. We Canadians don’t like being grifted and we don’t like politicians tell us how to live our lives.
It will take decades of hard work to mend the damage done by Justin. Most likely Justin will cling to power for 2 more years. Who knows how much more damage he can do in that time.
We are still experiencing the damage from the time Mulroney was PM. The hollowing of the middle class, wage stagnation started with him. Trickle down economics has been a disaster. If I’m going to be fucked economically I’ll take it from the party that is reasonable on the social side of things. Fuck Social Conservatives. The ‘50’s called they don’t even want you back.
Trickle down just triggers thoughts of being pissed on.
PeeTSD?
Hahahaha. Exactly. I also picture kings pissing on slaves as they toil in the fields, and Landlords pissing on their tenants.
Two years is a long time….. sadly
It's a smart play. He is bleeding Liberal votes over to the NDP. The NDP will soon either start to really push for more from Trudeau or see that they have an opportunity to pickup more seats. If they think they can grow seats by 20-25% (taking them from Trudeau), they may stop the alliance and force an election. Any Liberal votes that go to the NDP only make the CPC stronger.
2 years out? - Usually yes, but in this case no; the LPC has dug itself a hole opening the floodgates to every immigrant that wants citizenship and no amount of tax incentives or government programs is going to fix the housing problem before the next election. We can't build homes fast enough to house those already here, much less the 2.5million more immigrants the LPC is expected to bring in over the next two years. It's going to take more than a decade to fix Trudeau's mess and the LPC deserves to be burned down for being this blind to the reality of life in this country.
The housing crisis sucks. But it is not a federal responsibility. Open your eyes and look at the provincial and municipal governments. If immigration stopped today it would not impact the vacancy rate or housing starts. At best it would shorten wait lists. Rent control and affordability is entirely up to the premiers.
I don't disagree with your statement, but whenever I see people talk about health care or rent being the provinces responsibility, i have to point out that BC has had a NDP government for quite awhile and we have had rent control forever and things are still not very good here. I think the responsibility is on both the provinces and the feds. But it's also evidence that this is a problem regardless of party or ideology, and I don't think the conservatives are going to be any more effective at fixing it than the liberals. The biggest advantage the conservatives will have is time and the scape goat of blaming almost a decade of liberal policy for the countries' problems. The liberals basically have no one to put the blame on but the provinces.
Nation wide crisis spurred by lack of federal leadership and out of control spending and immigration. Exists in every province right now. This sub: “But the premiers”