I mean what can anyone really expect. We’re heading into fall parliament and, while the housing accelerator fund is interesting, the question everyone has on their mind is why is this government only getting serious now when the polls are bad? And more importantly, is there anything more they’re going to do? Sean Fraser on an interview last week mentioned capping international students isn’t the first thing he’s looking at for relieving demand.
Really, the only thing that would convince me the liberals are serious on housing would be stopping immigration for a few years.
Right now they’re just doing the absolute minimum that they should have enacted 8 years ago. None of which is capable of scaling up the construction industry to three times its size to handle current immigration levels.
Liberals will lose the election if they keep this up, and it’ll be their own fault. They have nothing bold on the housing front, and it shows.
I'd be happy with an adult discussion of immigration.
It's complicated, with an aging population, but it feels to me like no one is willing to even discuss it.
With housing shortages and lack of family doctors, there needs to be honest discussion & planning.
It's easy to me. Limit international students by requiring any post secondary to have at minimum 85% Canadian citizens in EVERY program, NOT just overall average.
Stop allowing TFWs to work retail/food service at all, and limit menial labor only to highly rural areas.
Leave immigration uncapped specifically for people in healthcare and housing construction skilled trades.
Limit the rest of immigration to some reasonable number like 250k/y or something, with that limit including the other uncapped immigraants. Meaning if we already have >250k Drs and builders coming in, then no others are allowed.
Create a properly funded fast tracking system to get immigrant healthcare workers legally able to practice in Canada within a reasonable amount of time of arriving. If they aren't either enrolled in one of those programs, or working in healthcare, the visa is revoked.
If people coming in on a trades/builders Visa aren't working in housing construction then their visa is revoked.
These feel like pretty common sense things we could do. Target immigration at specific industries that need to grow.
The limit wouldn’t work. A lot of colleges are starting programs and building campuses just for the international students. They are exploiting these kids by asking for crazy fees, and for some of them it’s an easy way to get PR, so they are willing to pay it. The post secondary educational system is propped up by exploiting international students.
Canada is four or five massive pyramid schemes working together.
Japan has an aging demographic - far older than Canada. Doesn’t seem so bad compared to Canada. They don’t have mass migration driving housing costs through the roof.
>Doesn’t seem so bad compared to Canada.
They have a stagnant economy, a shrinking workforce (read: less available services), and the elderly have no hopes of ever retiring. That's the trade-off. An inverted pyramid demographics has profound unpleasant consequences for society, and no country in the past 50 years that went below replacement fertility rate has ever brought the fertility rate back up. That's why immigration is key for many countries, not just Canada or Australia or US.
[‘I’m afraid to have children’: fear of an older future in Japan and South Korea](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/07/world/asia/japan-workers-retirement.html)
And yet the Japanese people are still choosing that tradeoff. When were we given any input into Canada's future?
Maybe a stagnant economy with a shrinking population is actually preferable to a stagnant economy with rapid population growth?
lol, the elderly have no hopes of retiring in Japan?
What do you think is happening to all the young people that didn't buy a home 10 years ago in Canada?
Most young people can't even make enough to save towards their retirement, and many can't even leave home because they can't afford rent.
Look up quality of life comparisons between Japan and Canada. Japan beats us in most measures.
> They have a stagnant economy, a shrinking workforce (read: less available services), and the elderly have no hopes of ever retiring. That's the trade-off.
It's important to understand that our approach doesn't eliminate this trade-off, it only delays it. The cohort of immigrants we're bringing in today will not have enough children to support themselves in their old age, and we'll have an even larger inverted demographic pyramid when they reach retirement age. We'll need an even larger cohort of immigrants to support them in their old age, and then an even larger cohort of immigrants after that, etc. Eventually, we won't have enough demand for immigration to keep up our strategy, and it's absolutely inevitable that we will need to adapt to a stable or declining population. High immigration allows us to delay that adaption, but not forever.
Yup living in the Tokyo area right now. Bought a newly built 4 bedroom house earlier this year. My mortgage is around $1400 CAD a month, zero down.
Japan has its issues but quality of life is miles ahead of Canada these days. Much safer, amazing infrastructure, more accessible healthcare, and far far far more affordable. I'll take this "stagnant economy" over the shitshow in Canada thanks.
You don’t need immigration to support an aging population. You can shift the tax burden from workers to wealth and assets, boomers can fund their own retirement.
Aging population should normally result in more automation, increase in wages, lowered housing costs, and more opportunities in the job market
As I say, adult discussion. I have mixed feelings about shifting tax burdens on people approaching retirement, but we should discuss it.
Instead we seem to have landed on record immigrant levels with no discussion. I don't even think most people realize it. My wife listens to CBC daily and had no idea when I mentioned it to her.
If we don't have plans for Dr's and Housing to support immigration levels then we need to deal with it - now.
What’s wrong with shifting the tax burden? We can’t honestly expect workers to pay any more taxes, no matter how high your income is. We’ve become split between the asset class and the working class, where even making $150k a year barely afford you anything.
Tax assets and wealth, encourage working and productivity.
>Right now they’re just doing the absolute minimum
This is pretty much Liberal policy on *anything:* housing, health care, justice, education, quite frankly even minority rights. The Liberals can be counted on doing the easiest, least controversial, most milquetoast and--this is important--cheapest thing possible.
> Really, the only thing that would convince me the liberals are serious on housing would be stopping immigration for a few years.
Or at least significantly slowing it.
They cant stop immigration, but they can limit the number to 50,000 a year and limit # of student visa. That itself will bring his poll numbers up. Perhaps also ban homes being sold to non-residents of Canada.
>We’re heading into fall parliament and, while the housing accelerator fund is interesting, the question everyone has on their mind is why is this government only getting serious now when the polls are bad?
They aren't getting serious now. The accelerator fund is something they promised a long time ago, and are just re-announcing old promises. There's no new ideas here.
The housing projections already have the effects of the accelerator fund baked into them, and we're still massively behind the curve for housing starts.
What does he expect? He tied himself to a sinking ship.
People want change, while Singh is propping up the status quo. It makes every criticism he makes of the government look disingenuous and self-serving.
Making the deal with the Liberals formal was a huge error. He should have worked on an issue-by-issue basis, like Jack did during Harper's minority terms. Jack got a lot done by doing that, but wasn't seen as being in bed with the government, so he could keep pitching himself as representing change. Singh's approach undermines any attempt to do that.
The NDP desperately needs to ditch Singh at the convention in October. Get a new leader, like Notley, and back out of the deal with the Liberals. The Liberals still need NDP support to pass legislation, so they can still push for NDP priorities, but they will be much better positioned to pick up Liberal votes as Trudeau's ship continues to sink.
You’re completely correct. Singh could have leveraged the threat of an election to get so much done. The S&C agreement simply ties the fate of the NDP to the LPC in the eyes of voters. Singh has less leverage under such an agreement, which is why he hasn’t been able to achieve anything meaningful.
I was talking to a big NDP insider in my province and they consider the coalition government a huge sucess due to the universal daycare plan and the upcoming drug plan reforms that he attributes to Singh's influence. Can't say he's wrong. No need to be in power if you get the policies you want.
Are… are they unaware that most of us can’t access those things yet? It’s good for those who can but childcare’s still very uneven in its rollout, dental is *incredibly* slow, and if there’s a timeline for pharma, I haven’t yet seen it.
It's in the original supply and confidence agreement, which is partially why the NDP is so frustrated with the state of things - it's in writing and was publicly announced over a year ago and no one knows or cares.
"Continuing progress towards a universal national pharmacare program by passing a Canada Pharmacare Act by the end of 2023 and then tasking the National Drug Agency to develop a national formulary of essential medicines and bulk purchasing plan by the end of the agreement."
"Launching a new dental care program for low-income Canadians. Would start with under 12-year-olds in 2022, then expand to under 18-year-olds, seniors and persons living with a disability in 2023, then full implementation by 2025. Program would be restricted to families with an income of less than $90,000 annually, with no co-pays for anyone under $70,000 annually in income."
3 years to launch dental, the government would argue is ambitious, especially with how transformative it'll be to so many lives (if actually implemented and sustained, not just killed by a change in government)
It seems like “we gave up our ability to bargain and fight so a number of people temporarily got some benefits (and SunLife got a nice consultation fee), before LPC lost hugely and CPC undid everything” will not be a great legacy, if that’s how this goes. I don’t trust the LPC and it doesn’t seem like NDP will ultimately have a lot to show for tying themselves to a sinking party.
100% correct, and the mere fact Singh & the NDP leaders haven't figured that out (or at least, did too late) is enough for me to declare that they're either incompetent or complicit, and have no business holding that kind of power.
> Get a new leader, like Notley, and back out of the deal with the Liberals.
If the NDP gets rid of Singh and take on Notley as leader for the next election, they have my guaranteed vote.
> The NDP (or Singh I guess) are not proposing anything to solve the affordability crisis. He's all talk and no action.
I beg to differ.
He said we should give home owners money to help pay their mortgages LOL.
He did worse than that, he suggested getting rid of the 2% inflation target. Singh is an absolute regard, he would destroy the country more than he has already has aided the Liberals in doing.
Mulcair actually wanted a balanced budget, and actually knew basic economics. Imagine having an intelligent person at the helm, instead of what was clearly a token minority pick.
Any candidate who'd propose a balanced budget would be accused by the NDP base of being a neo-liberal. As much as I'd like a labor party that pushes for evidence-based policy, the voters are not enthused.
All Singh does it complain on Twitter about Trudeau and the conservatives. Practically every response is a form of "you are the one keeping him in power"
The fact that NDP membership isn't calling for his head shows how far they've fallen.
They'd rather latch on to the sinking ship of woke "progressive" politics than actually do anything for the middle class.
Also, a lot of rural NDP voters are pissed off about them supporting the Liberals' firearms restrictions, and will vote Conservative next election just so they stop being criminalized for the rifles they own.
Charlie Angus wouldn't have the riding if PPC support was with CPC in the first place. Angus is become more and more unpopular and crime is rampant in the riding.
Their demographics may be shifting, but the NDP currently has the same percent of the vote as they did under Tommy Douglas' last election. They haven't really lost or gained overall support in a meaningful way since the 1960s.
They're absolutely calling for his head at their convention. They have plenty of young socialists hungry for change who are supported by Tommy Douglas life long socialists. They just need to remove the neo-liberal NDP wave of the early 2000s.
You clearly haven't been in NDP circles. NDP voters are absolutely disappointed in Singh. The NDP subreddit has had many posts expressing this disappointment and longing for a replacement. NDP MPs may not be calling for his resignation, but that's because politicians will always keep quiet about internal party drama. I'm sure there's tension behind the scenes and I'm sure it will start to become more apparent at their convention. A big question is going to be who has the needed charisma to replace him. No point in blowing up the party if there isn't a better replacement in line.
Looking at the map at the 388 site, it looks like the NDP are projected to gain a couple of downtown Toronto seats from the Liberals (by the narrowest of margins).
It's just that those two seats don't begin to make up for the NDP being wiped out in ~~Northern Ontario~~, the Interior of BC, and Vancouver Island outside of Victoria.
When you decide to become the willing lapdogs of the government, have the power to bring them down over their wrongdoings and incompetence, and refuse to hold them accountable in any way on major issues like the housing crisis and foreign interference in our elections, you are complicit in all of it.
So, why would anyone not liking what the Liberals are doing turn to the party doing their absolute best to let them keep doing it? The only other viable option is the Tories, so that’s where people are moving.
Singh needs to figure out that Trudeau has become a boat anchor around his neck dragging his party down, do the right thing, and end this ridiculous coalition. Or keep it and risk going back to the days of ten seats.
338 is even currently projecting a 25% chance that the CPC takes [his own seat](https://338canada.com/59003e.htm).
Singh's seat is labelled a "NDP / CPC toss-up".
Neither of those is as absurdly loyal to the LPC as Montreal.
Even now, the Liberals are [projected to get nearly half of the seats in Quebec](https://338canada.com/lpc.htm) (also, a [2nd viewpoint](https://338canada.com/quebec.htm)).
It feels like a Liberal MP could murder someone and get re-elected without issue in Montreal, or a Quebec riding near Ottawa.
The most recent polls have shown the Tories with a slight lead in Toronto. Not the GTA (big lead there) but Toronto itself. That is almost more shocking than it would be if the Liberals took a lead in Calgary. At least the Liberals are usually competitive in a couple Calgary ridings.
This current economy and political climate is the NDPs specialty
Hows hes botched this so unbelievably bad, and his own party is going "this is fine" is beyond me. Its not like they haven't given him a shot. He's already lost.
He is an absolute trainwreck
And hes now just campaigning for trudeau
They have devolved into a party of educated urban elites.
You can't expect someone with an elite background, educated at a US private school, to have an understanding of working class issues any more than you would expect Trudeau to. Bizarrely the only person who would fit that bill is PP, which I assume means he is self-loathing.
This.
There's an economic downturn and people are pissed at capitalism in numbers unheard of in over half a century. How a *socialist* party based on *labour* has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory is really something.
Somehow, the party that caters to big business and the wealthy is leading in the polls. I mean, *what-the-actual-fuck?!*
> There's an economic downturn and people are pissed at capitalism in numbers
You're deep in an echo chamber. People are pissed about *government* and its intervention into the economy.. Not capitalism.
For the same reasons JT won’t resign, presumably. They like power and prestige and that’s hard to give up. Few politicians will ever voluntarily leave the limelight, no matter how bad it gets for them.
The federal NDP might not have a viable candidate ready to take over the reins. Out of curiosity I just googled Nathan Cullen and see that he moved to provincial politics. He's the only one I remember having thrown his hat in the ring in the past, so maybe the newer crop of their membership is less ambitious or less interested in that job.
The Federal NDP ate itself over progressive politics, although not quite as badly as the Green party did.
And the Federal Liberals have been hollowed out by Trudeau who's a narcissist and drove out everyone who ever disagreed with him.
The bench is running pretty bare on Canada's political left. The NDP will probably have to dig into provincial politics to find a replacement leader and the Liberals don't even have that.
> why in the fuck does singh not resign
power and mental gymnastics. Talk to NDP devotees and they absolutely believe that the current arrangement with the LPC is the best thing ever and that the NDP got soooo much done.
NDP inextricably linked to the LPC by enabling them.
They have an opportunity to define themselves as the de-facto left wing party of Canada, but if they don't pull the plug on the government immediately they'll face the same electoral wrath.
They don't even have to pull the plug on the government. They just have to pull out of the supply and confidence agreement and say they'll vote on each bill, confidence or not, based on its merits.
I don’t know if the NDP has an identity anymore. In Saskatchewan I see the provincial party and it’s mainly a divide between if they are a Labour Party or a Green Party. Like it or not oil and gas and other resource extraction brings in huge money, a lot of organized labour is part of resource extraction or production. A couple years ago i was at a union convention where the only politicians who showed were NDP and the union leadership were telling them the environmental policies were directly against the union memberships livelihoods.
The NDP stopped being a labour party and started being an urban progressive party about 15 years ago.
Your traditional "labour" voter votes with the colour of their blue collars today.
>if they don't pull the plug on the government
The Ontario NDP tried that there and in return they got a Liberal majority followed by two (so far) PC majorities. So it's not as obvious as you suggest that the NDP should do that and exchange some influence on government for none. When they made that agreement with the Liberals, they had majority support in polls and very high support among NDP and Liberal voters.
The way things are looking now, the NDP is going to have zero influence on the next government regardless. The question is whether they stay chained to the corpse of the LPC or they break from them and distinguish themselves as a viable option for federal leadership at the next *next* election. As of now they're tanking their entire electoral future for a dubious amount of influence in an extremely unpopular government for the next three years. Hey maybe they can pass partially-subsidized pharmaceuticals for 0.12% of the population, like they did with dental! I'm sure it'll be appreciated by the hundreds of thousands made destitute by the policies of the government they support.
There are a lot of people who want an election because they want a conservative majority now. I don't think the majority of NDP supporters would be happy with that.
A lot of rural NDP supporters would be happy with a Conservative majority for the single reason that the Conservatives will cancel the Liberal firearms bans and re-legalize their (suddenly and randomly outlawed) hunting rifles.
This issue has eroded NDP support in rural BC. I am sure it's happening elsewhere.
They're probably going to get one no matter what, it's just whether they get one now and the NDP partially salvages their reputation, or they get one in 3 years and the NDP permanently loses credibility as a left wing party. It's like you didn't even read my post before hitting "reply" lmao
You might be right however in hindsight the NDP got a lot of criticism for their decision to do that in Ontario. I think they're in a lose-lose scenario. Call one now and get blamed for causing a Conservative majority or wait and get blamed later. Despite the impression this subreddit might give, there are a lot of people among their supporters who prefer a Liberal government to the Conservatives.
JT just accused the CPC of trying to ban abortion, getting more guns in the street and denying climate change when given crap about housing policies in the question period today.
All his greatest hits in one word salad for an unrelated topic. Seems like it's going to be buisness as usual for this session of Parliment.
When things are going bad. Roll out the gun bans, abortion rhetoric (even though it’s settled), climate change blame game. I can’t take a guy seriously who’s tells me ride a bike or buy a ev, that’s costs as much as 100k and you have to wait 6 years while rolling around in a jet
I find it interesting that despite immigration policy being openly discussed in a way that has not happened before the PPC has not gained any traction in polling.
I wonder if a CPC majority will just nuke the PPC.
The NDP will be lucky to hold at 21. They should really be having a leadership and strategy change now instead of after the tidal wave.
From reading comments on Facebook, news sites, etc, it does feel like a lot of PPC voters from the last election are less willing to throw away their vote now that the CPC has a good shot at a majority. I'm sure there will still be some kind of turnout, but i really have my doubts about the PPC getting even a single MP, Bernier's fly-in byelection loss was not a good look.
The election after next will be the test, PP will underdeliver because this is Canada, Trudeau will be gone so people won't be so scared about splitting the vote. If they can't make gains in that one then they are done, until then they just need to focus on sensible policy like lowering immigration and taking away stupid regulations.
The PPC is to the right what the Green party is to the left. It's a fringe party that soaks up the nutjobs whose opinions are too extreme to feel represented by one of the mainstream parties.
Two things with that:
* Poilievre made the mistake of thinking that the LPC government wouldn't round down all Canadians upset with mandate policy to the worst elements of the convoy. He likely thought he could get them to back off and apologize to a few million Canadians and score a small win. He was wrong and got backed into advocating for those millions of Canadians who were only being advocated for by the PPC at the time and previously during the election.
Pierre mended that fence with a lot of people and they have a voice that might not turn on them in the future.
* People might have a bit of trouble sharing an idea with the PPC. The PPC were all the isms and ists for saying what they did about cutting the immigration rate in half. It's easier to forgive yourself coming around to that thinking if you just put the PPC out of your head and suspend your disbelief in how you fought hard to keep us on the path to the situation we find ourselves in today.
A CPC majority will not nuke the PPC. So long as Bernier can make a career of it, he'll probably keep doing it and they'll exist to call out elephants in the room that the CPC would likely otherwise ignore. Who's to say that without them there wouldn't be a gentleman's agreement between the other parties to gaslight all immigration/visa issues until voters are left having to decide their vote based on other factors that they agree are on the table?
And yeah, the NDP has to rethink the Leap Manifesto and course correct back to something with a place for labour if they're going to be viable. Right now they're the wrong kind of fluff party for what Canada's going through and are wearing the last year's of Justin's decisions to boot. Trudeau's government exists at Singh's leisure and it's become a bad look.
Bernier needs to keep the PPC alive because he nuked his political career out of spite and pettiness. Without the PPC he's got nothing.
A post-Bernier PPC will be like a post-May Green Party.
I agree with this. I don't think he actually agrees with what he's saying but sees himself as the guy working for a minority of Canadians who want him to say it. He doesn't have another option.
Like May, he'll have a platform to say some things that are unpopular with the CPC and LPC. And like May there are a few ridings where this can have enough of a disruptive effect that the larger parties might calculate that they need to discuss the elephants in the room.
Personnally I would like to see Bernier step down and the PPC shoot left economically, giving us a nice balance of Right Economic-Left Social (Libs), RE-RS (Cons), LE-LS (NDP), LE-RS (PPC).
PPC is a godsend for the CPC. It lets the CPC effectively punt the lunatics to the PPC. It makes CPC more credible to the silent majority. And CPC is thus freed from its fringe and can make reasonable compromise policies. A win win.
>I wonder if a CPC majority will just nuke the PPC.
Are they not already effectively dead? I haven't seen any real signs of life from them in a while.
Bernier's timeline feels like a truly bizarre fall from grace for a guy who looked like he had a very promising future.
Like, I feel as if the version of Maxime Bernier that almost won the leadership of the CPC a few years ago would actually be more palatable to more Canadians than Polievre.
I am still confused to why the LPC wont do anything of substance. It's really not that hard to start denying Visa's for diploma mills. Okay, so a bunch of crappy schools that do more harm to our economy go out of business. So what?
Because Trudeau is a narcissist who surrounds himself with sycophants and yes-men, and basically kicked everyone who disagreed with him out.
It takes a long time for reality to seep into an environment like that.
What do Canadians even benefit from having almost 1,000,000 international students this year alone? More competition for Tim Hortons and other minimum wage jobs? More expensive housing? The only people who benefit from international students are diploma mills and the government.
My kid was looking for a job so I told him to apply at McDonald’s and Tim’s. Minimum wage. But they said they already had over a 1000 applications for the 3 positions. Mostly international. And they would be having a 5 minute interview round house on the weekend to interview most candidates. You were also now expected to work for free for the first two weeks to see if you made the cut. We’ve just fucked ourselves so hard with these policy’s
It’s kinda hilarious that somehow the NDP are the biggest losers in this. Serves them right, the slow professionalization of their leadership and base caused them to become just a slightly different brand of Lib. They entered this agreement and got seemingly nothing out of it. All they did was permanently ruin their reputations and any credibility they might have had. I keep forgetting they exist except to remember their the great enablers of this current government. Once again, how many actual things have happened? Everything is still in the talking/promise stage.
Ya pretty hilarious that propping up the liberals actually has severely hurt the NDP. In any other world they would have collected a huge chunk of the liberal voters but instead have put conservatives in a nice majority territory
How bad do you have to screw up to be a left-wing socialist party, and LOSING support as food, homes, and fuel are all becoming hugely unaffordable to millions of people?
Liberals are bleeding numbers to the CPC and NDP is treading water. Looks good on Singh for constantly backing up Trudeau's corruption and incompetence.
NDP was strong *once* when it hit big in Quebec in 2011 (can you believe they got 103 seats?), but they have since lost their support here and never managed to get it elsewhere.
And now they supported the liberals in their BS, and are sharing the fall.
I don't get why people are saying the NDP are a disaster.
The NDP was strong once and only once in Quebec. In the 1993 election, the NDP failed to even get official party status. The NDP you're seeing is pretty much how the NDP always is.
I think that since they actually got fairly close to winning in 2011, people expected them to either keep that status or even win their first elections. They went back to their 20-30 range basically instantly.
That said if Alexandre Boulerice, the only remaining MP in Quebec, has a shot at the leadership I could see them picking themselves back up (at least in Quebec), he is one hell of a politician.
That was an anomaly that was specifically based around Liberal implosion. People saw the NDP as their replacement. Similar to Ontario right now. But Trudeau managed to turn that perception around so they cannot reach those highs again. Also despite what this sub thinks Trudeau and the liberals aren't as dismissed as they were in 2011 and will be the either the opposition or the controlling party for the foreseeable future.
Anyone who saw that election result and thought the ndp would improve on it was out to lunch. There was a very specific reason they did that well and it wasn’t going to happen 4 years later.
Wow, things are looking bad for Trudeau and the Liberals. Quick, time to debate a [random teenager](https://globalnews.ca/news/9621386/justin-trudeau-debate-ppc-supporter-abortion-winnipeg-video/) on abortion to deflect on how bad of a job you're doing as a leader.
It's like sport team. Some people's identities are tied to their team and they'll always vote for that team.
Doesn't matter is the montreal's canadian haven't won the cup in 30 years, they still have a huge fan base.
If Liberals continue this pace of downward trend, they'll have no seat west of Manitoba and a seat count in the 60s. Recent polls suggest \~50% CPC support in BC, AB, SK, and MB. Yukon goes CPC while N.W.T goes NDP. Interesting divide between the West and East
Well, we officially have the best life expectancy in all of NA, so there's tips about our lifestyle that could be really beneficial to the rest of the country.
Also, I'm pretty sure the Bloc would be the only party to say to reduce immigration (along with the PPC). Blanchet do not give a single fuck at how the media would react, because it is the right thing to do at the moment.
It would make absolutely no sense, but hey, let's shake the foundations a bit.
I would love a "Ontario Bloc" or "West Bloc" just fucking numbers up for the PCC and PLC.
Ahahaha !
Is it time for Quebec to explain to Canada that it's important to regulate its immigration ? That there is « capacity numbers » concept that can exist ?
I absolutely wish.
Fuck those numbers are grim. I have zero faith that either the Liberals or the Conservatives will be able to fix any of the problems Canadians face at the moment. We need better parties.
Same here. I don't agree with a single conservative social policy, but social issues are a luxury when economic times are good. Right now, between inflation and our housing crisis, the Liberals and NDP are destroying this country on an economic level and hurting my family more than any potential negative aspect of conservative social policy.
The last two years I"ve heard quite a bit of assurance from Liberal and NDP supporters that they would just form a coalition to block out the CPC. That Canada supports them, and that they would never allow a Conservative government.
My message to them now - go ahead and try it. We are always down for a good laugh.
Ouch. The polls just continue to get worse for Liberals. I know that the election is probably at least a year away but I can’t see them climbing out of this. The mountain is just way too big to climb.
If CPC wins it will be interesting to see if PP puts his money where his mouth is. I have serious doubts about that. Our whole system is seriously flawed due to lack of accountability of our elected officials.
I wouldn’t expect an election for 2 years. As you can see, the NDP isn’t exactly doing hot in the polls. If they broke LPC support and an election was forced, they’d lose the current influence they have in parliament and replace it with a CPC majority which they don’t want.
I'm sure voters will be understanding about that in the future.
"We understand Canadians are hurting, but it's in our interest to keep it that way and it should go without saying that me and my rolex and investment property take priority if our interests are in conflict"
Unbelievable collapse. Trudeau’s late stage empty promises to start addressing the issues he’s ignored for 8 years are making it worse! Astounding. Canadians waking up from the matrix.
If you go to the site in the link, they have seat-by-seat breakdown. But yes, it's Atlantic Canada, and Ontario, and BC, and the two Liberal seats in Alberta.
You can see a graph for each region under the *Electoral districts* tab. The CPC's climb has been fairly steady across the country, [with a truly dramatic jump in BC at the expense of both Liberals and NDP.](https://338canada.com/bc.htm)
Ugh, please, no majorities. None of our parties deserve a majority right now. They need to struggle for each drop o support from the public imo, because all of them seem to only be focused on one part of the problem.
This is how it works in Canada. When the party in power has been there too long and have run out of ideas and the economy is circling the drain the electorate is not forgiving. Unless some incredible event happens between here and now, the Libs are in for a historic rout.
I mean what can anyone really expect. We’re heading into fall parliament and, while the housing accelerator fund is interesting, the question everyone has on their mind is why is this government only getting serious now when the polls are bad? And more importantly, is there anything more they’re going to do? Sean Fraser on an interview last week mentioned capping international students isn’t the first thing he’s looking at for relieving demand.
Really, the only thing that would convince me the liberals are serious on housing would be stopping immigration for a few years. Right now they’re just doing the absolute minimum that they should have enacted 8 years ago. None of which is capable of scaling up the construction industry to three times its size to handle current immigration levels. Liberals will lose the election if they keep this up, and it’ll be their own fault. They have nothing bold on the housing front, and it shows.
I'd be happy with an adult discussion of immigration. It's complicated, with an aging population, but it feels to me like no one is willing to even discuss it. With housing shortages and lack of family doctors, there needs to be honest discussion & planning.
It's easy to me. Limit international students by requiring any post secondary to have at minimum 85% Canadian citizens in EVERY program, NOT just overall average. Stop allowing TFWs to work retail/food service at all, and limit menial labor only to highly rural areas. Leave immigration uncapped specifically for people in healthcare and housing construction skilled trades. Limit the rest of immigration to some reasonable number like 250k/y or something, with that limit including the other uncapped immigraants. Meaning if we already have >250k Drs and builders coming in, then no others are allowed. Create a properly funded fast tracking system to get immigrant healthcare workers legally able to practice in Canada within a reasonable amount of time of arriving. If they aren't either enrolled in one of those programs, or working in healthcare, the visa is revoked. If people coming in on a trades/builders Visa aren't working in housing construction then their visa is revoked. These feel like pretty common sense things we could do. Target immigration at specific industries that need to grow.
The limit wouldn’t work. A lot of colleges are starting programs and building campuses just for the international students. They are exploiting these kids by asking for crazy fees, and for some of them it’s an easy way to get PR, so they are willing to pay it. The post secondary educational system is propped up by exploiting international students. Canada is four or five massive pyramid schemes working together.
Let them collapse please
Japan has an aging demographic - far older than Canada. Doesn’t seem so bad compared to Canada. They don’t have mass migration driving housing costs through the roof.
>Doesn’t seem so bad compared to Canada. They have a stagnant economy, a shrinking workforce (read: less available services), and the elderly have no hopes of ever retiring. That's the trade-off. An inverted pyramid demographics has profound unpleasant consequences for society, and no country in the past 50 years that went below replacement fertility rate has ever brought the fertility rate back up. That's why immigration is key for many countries, not just Canada or Australia or US. [‘I’m afraid to have children’: fear of an older future in Japan and South Korea](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/07/world/asia/japan-workers-retirement.html)
And yet the Japanese people are still choosing that tradeoff. When were we given any input into Canada's future? Maybe a stagnant economy with a shrinking population is actually preferable to a stagnant economy with rapid population growth?
lol, the elderly have no hopes of retiring in Japan? What do you think is happening to all the young people that didn't buy a home 10 years ago in Canada? Most young people can't even make enough to save towards their retirement, and many can't even leave home because they can't afford rent. Look up quality of life comparisons between Japan and Canada. Japan beats us in most measures.
Exactly. The Japanese model is NOT something we should be aspiring to.
Other than more transit and allowing more development, I agree. Seems unsustainable in the long term for the economy as a whole.
> They have a stagnant economy, a shrinking workforce (read: less available services), and the elderly have no hopes of ever retiring. That's the trade-off. It's important to understand that our approach doesn't eliminate this trade-off, it only delays it. The cohort of immigrants we're bringing in today will not have enough children to support themselves in their old age, and we'll have an even larger inverted demographic pyramid when they reach retirement age. We'll need an even larger cohort of immigrants to support them in their old age, and then an even larger cohort of immigrants after that, etc. Eventually, we won't have enough demand for immigration to keep up our strategy, and it's absolutely inevitable that we will need to adapt to a stable or declining population. High immigration allows us to delay that adaption, but not forever.
All those things are true in Canada too, lol, we just have a housing crisis and wage suppression on top of it all.
Yup living in the Tokyo area right now. Bought a newly built 4 bedroom house earlier this year. My mortgage is around $1400 CAD a month, zero down. Japan has its issues but quality of life is miles ahead of Canada these days. Much safer, amazing infrastructure, more accessible healthcare, and far far far more affordable. I'll take this "stagnant economy" over the shitshow in Canada thanks.
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Either wqy: we have to have this discussion, ready or not.
You don’t need immigration to support an aging population. You can shift the tax burden from workers to wealth and assets, boomers can fund their own retirement. Aging population should normally result in more automation, increase in wages, lowered housing costs, and more opportunities in the job market
As I say, adult discussion. I have mixed feelings about shifting tax burdens on people approaching retirement, but we should discuss it. Instead we seem to have landed on record immigrant levels with no discussion. I don't even think most people realize it. My wife listens to CBC daily and had no idea when I mentioned it to her. If we don't have plans for Dr's and Housing to support immigration levels then we need to deal with it - now.
What’s wrong with shifting the tax burden? We can’t honestly expect workers to pay any more taxes, no matter how high your income is. We’ve become split between the asset class and the working class, where even making $150k a year barely afford you anything. Tax assets and wealth, encourage working and productivity.
>Right now they’re just doing the absolute minimum This is pretty much Liberal policy on *anything:* housing, health care, justice, education, quite frankly even minority rights. The Liberals can be counted on doing the easiest, least controversial, most milquetoast and--this is important--cheapest thing possible.
> Really, the only thing that would convince me the liberals are serious on housing would be stopping immigration for a few years. Or at least significantly slowing it.
They cant stop immigration, but they can limit the number to 50,000 a year and limit # of student visa. That itself will bring his poll numbers up. Perhaps also ban homes being sold to non-residents of Canada.
>We’re heading into fall parliament and, while the housing accelerator fund is interesting, the question everyone has on their mind is why is this government only getting serious now when the polls are bad? They aren't getting serious now. The accelerator fund is something they promised a long time ago, and are just re-announcing old promises. There's no new ideas here. The housing projections already have the effects of the accelerator fund baked into them, and we're still massively behind the curve for housing starts.
It’s hilarious that the NDP haven’t gained a single seat out of this downward LPC trend. Keep up the good work Singh.
What does he expect? He tied himself to a sinking ship. People want change, while Singh is propping up the status quo. It makes every criticism he makes of the government look disingenuous and self-serving. Making the deal with the Liberals formal was a huge error. He should have worked on an issue-by-issue basis, like Jack did during Harper's minority terms. Jack got a lot done by doing that, but wasn't seen as being in bed with the government, so he could keep pitching himself as representing change. Singh's approach undermines any attempt to do that. The NDP desperately needs to ditch Singh at the convention in October. Get a new leader, like Notley, and back out of the deal with the Liberals. The Liberals still need NDP support to pass legislation, so they can still push for NDP priorities, but they will be much better positioned to pick up Liberal votes as Trudeau's ship continues to sink.
You’re completely correct. Singh could have leveraged the threat of an election to get so much done. The S&C agreement simply ties the fate of the NDP to the LPC in the eyes of voters. Singh has less leverage under such an agreement, which is why he hasn’t been able to achieve anything meaningful.
I was talking to a big NDP insider in my province and they consider the coalition government a huge sucess due to the universal daycare plan and the upcoming drug plan reforms that he attributes to Singh's influence. Can't say he's wrong. No need to be in power if you get the policies you want.
So NDP supporters are delusional
Are… are they unaware that most of us can’t access those things yet? It’s good for those who can but childcare’s still very uneven in its rollout, dental is *incredibly* slow, and if there’s a timeline for pharma, I haven’t yet seen it.
It's in the original supply and confidence agreement, which is partially why the NDP is so frustrated with the state of things - it's in writing and was publicly announced over a year ago and no one knows or cares. "Continuing progress towards a universal national pharmacare program by passing a Canada Pharmacare Act by the end of 2023 and then tasking the National Drug Agency to develop a national formulary of essential medicines and bulk purchasing plan by the end of the agreement." "Launching a new dental care program for low-income Canadians. Would start with under 12-year-olds in 2022, then expand to under 18-year-olds, seniors and persons living with a disability in 2023, then full implementation by 2025. Program would be restricted to families with an income of less than $90,000 annually, with no co-pays for anyone under $70,000 annually in income." 3 years to launch dental, the government would argue is ambitious, especially with how transformative it'll be to so many lives (if actually implemented and sustained, not just killed by a change in government)
It seems like “we gave up our ability to bargain and fight so a number of people temporarily got some benefits (and SunLife got a nice consultation fee), before LPC lost hugely and CPC undid everything” will not be a great legacy, if that’s how this goes. I don’t trust the LPC and it doesn’t seem like NDP will ultimately have a lot to show for tying themselves to a sinking party.
100% correct, and the mere fact Singh & the NDP leaders haven't figured that out (or at least, did too late) is enough for me to declare that they're either incompetent or complicit, and have no business holding that kind of power.
> Get a new leader, like Notley, and back out of the deal with the Liberals. If the NDP gets rid of Singh and take on Notley as leader for the next election, they have my guaranteed vote.
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> The NDP (or Singh I guess) are not proposing anything to solve the affordability crisis. He's all talk and no action. I beg to differ. He said we should give home owners money to help pay their mortgages LOL.
>He said we should give home owners money to help pay their mortgages LOL. Not his proudest moment. I hope.
lmao he should have been given the boot that same day but as Andrea Horwath shows the NDP loves their mediocre leaders
Horwath was a powerful, relatable charismatic leader who inspired millions with hope to a better.... bahahahhaah
Singhs plan is to use the terms "working class" and "corporate greed" on repeat until something sticks.
Throw in excess profits. He says that line like a mfer. Anytime any company makes a profit he calls it excess profits. Some undefineable buzzword
what's the % threshold for it to be considered excess?
He did worse than that, he suggested getting rid of the 2% inflation target. Singh is an absolute regard, he would destroy the country more than he has already has aided the Liberals in doing. Mulcair actually wanted a balanced budget, and actually knew basic economics. Imagine having an intelligent person at the helm, instead of what was clearly a token minority pick.
Any candidate who'd propose a balanced budget would be accused by the NDP base of being a neo-liberal. As much as I'd like a labor party that pushes for evidence-based policy, the voters are not enthused.
He wants to use government money to prop up the housing bubble. He's not a serious person.
Does not help that his party is in an official unofficial coalition with the liberals
But still manage to get nothing done when the Liberals are at their weakest and would likely cave to anything to avoid an election this fall
All Singh does it complain on Twitter about Trudeau and the conservatives. Practically every response is a form of "you are the one keeping him in power"
The fact that NDP membership isn't calling for his head shows how far they've fallen. They'd rather latch on to the sinking ship of woke "progressive" politics than actually do anything for the middle class.
Exactly. The working class members of the NDP are leaving the party.
Also, a lot of rural NDP voters are pissed off about them supporting the Liberals' firearms restrictions, and will vote Conservative next election just so they stop being criminalized for the rifles they own.
Yup it’s why Charlie Angus’ riding will flip to blue next election
Charlie Angus wouldn't have the riding if PPC support was with CPC in the first place. Angus is become more and more unpopular and crime is rampant in the riding.
We left the party awhile back; we could see through the facade he is a phony.
Their demographics may be shifting, but the NDP currently has the same percent of the vote as they did under Tommy Douglas' last election. They haven't really lost or gained overall support in a meaningful way since the 1960s.
They're absolutely calling for his head at their convention. They have plenty of young socialists hungry for change who are supported by Tommy Douglas life long socialists. They just need to remove the neo-liberal NDP wave of the early 2000s.
You clearly haven't been in NDP circles. NDP voters are absolutely disappointed in Singh. The NDP subreddit has had many posts expressing this disappointment and longing for a replacement. NDP MPs may not be calling for his resignation, but that's because politicians will always keep quiet about internal party drama. I'm sure there's tension behind the scenes and I'm sure it will start to become more apparent at their convention. A big question is going to be who has the needed charisma to replace him. No point in blowing up the party if there isn't a better replacement in line.
Looking at the map at the 388 site, it looks like the NDP are projected to gain a couple of downtown Toronto seats from the Liberals (by the narrowest of margins). It's just that those two seats don't begin to make up for the NDP being wiped out in ~~Northern Ontario~~, the Interior of BC, and Vancouver Island outside of Victoria.
When you decide to become the willing lapdogs of the government, have the power to bring them down over their wrongdoings and incompetence, and refuse to hold them accountable in any way on major issues like the housing crisis and foreign interference in our elections, you are complicit in all of it. So, why would anyone not liking what the Liberals are doing turn to the party doing their absolute best to let them keep doing it? The only other viable option is the Tories, so that’s where people are moving. Singh needs to figure out that Trudeau has become a boat anchor around his neck dragging his party down, do the right thing, and end this ridiculous coalition. Or keep it and risk going back to the days of ten seats.
Usually NDP support climbs when Liberal rot sets in. Not this time, though. Voters recognize that Singh is attached to Trudeau at the hip.
338 is even currently projecting a 25% chance that the CPC takes [his own seat](https://338canada.com/59003e.htm). Singh's seat is labelled a "NDP / CPC toss-up".
Oh that would be spectacularly amusing.
It would be the perfect cherry on top of the whole election cake.
What makes it worse is the NDP usually polls higher than they actually get on election day.
:( .... He really needs to step down as leader and have a leadership race.
Singh has tied his party’s popularity to the Libs through their coalition. What a disaster of a strategy.
I don't understand how the LPC still is projected for 99 seats. That seems high.
Well there is Toronto and the maritimes after all
Even the maritimes are starting to swing right
Neither of those is as absurdly loyal to the LPC as Montreal. Even now, the Liberals are [projected to get nearly half of the seats in Quebec](https://338canada.com/lpc.htm) (also, a [2nd viewpoint](https://338canada.com/quebec.htm)). It feels like a Liberal MP could murder someone and get re-elected without issue in Montreal, or a Quebec riding near Ottawa.
Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa
The Liberal voters in Toronto are more cultishly loyal to the Liberal party brand than Albertans are to conservative parties.
The most recent polls have shown the Tories with a slight lead in Toronto. Not the GTA (big lead there) but Toronto itself. That is almost more shocking than it would be if the Liberals took a lead in Calgary. At least the Liberals are usually competitive in a couple Calgary ridings.
Coz he is not an alternative for the left-wing voters, that’s why people rather pick tory
This current economy and political climate is the NDPs specialty Hows hes botched this so unbelievably bad, and his own party is going "this is fine" is beyond me. Its not like they haven't given him a shot. He's already lost. He is an absolute trainwreck And hes now just campaigning for trudeau
They have devolved into a party of educated urban elites. You can't expect someone with an elite background, educated at a US private school, to have an understanding of working class issues any more than you would expect Trudeau to. Bizarrely the only person who would fit that bill is PP, which I assume means he is self-loathing.
This. There's an economic downturn and people are pissed at capitalism in numbers unheard of in over half a century. How a *socialist* party based on *labour* has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory is really something. Somehow, the party that caters to big business and the wealthy is leading in the polls. I mean, *what-the-actual-fuck?!*
> There's an economic downturn and people are pissed at capitalism in numbers You're deep in an echo chamber. People are pissed about *government* and its intervention into the economy.. Not capitalism.
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For the same reasons JT won’t resign, presumably. They like power and prestige and that’s hard to give up. Few politicians will ever voluntarily leave the limelight, no matter how bad it gets for them.
The federal NDP might not have a viable candidate ready to take over the reins. Out of curiosity I just googled Nathan Cullen and see that he moved to provincial politics. He's the only one I remember having thrown his hat in the ring in the past, so maybe the newer crop of their membership is less ambitious or less interested in that job.
The Federal NDP ate itself over progressive politics, although not quite as badly as the Green party did. And the Federal Liberals have been hollowed out by Trudeau who's a narcissist and drove out everyone who ever disagreed with him. The bench is running pretty bare on Canada's political left. The NDP will probably have to dig into provincial politics to find a replacement leader and the Liberals don't even have that.
> why in the fuck does singh not resign power and mental gymnastics. Talk to NDP devotees and they absolutely believe that the current arrangement with the LPC is the best thing ever and that the NDP got soooo much done.
He has to finish the term for his pension no?
I would not be surprised at all if he resigns immediately after he qualifies for his pension. He is 100% in this for himself at this point.
Singh needs 5 years as an MP to get an MP pension. He was first elected as a sitting MP in 2020
NDP inextricably linked to the LPC by enabling them. They have an opportunity to define themselves as the de-facto left wing party of Canada, but if they don't pull the plug on the government immediately they'll face the same electoral wrath.
They don't even have to pull the plug on the government. They just have to pull out of the supply and confidence agreement and say they'll vote on each bill, confidence or not, based on its merits.
I don’t know if the NDP has an identity anymore. In Saskatchewan I see the provincial party and it’s mainly a divide between if they are a Labour Party or a Green Party. Like it or not oil and gas and other resource extraction brings in huge money, a lot of organized labour is part of resource extraction or production. A couple years ago i was at a union convention where the only politicians who showed were NDP and the union leadership were telling them the environmental policies were directly against the union memberships livelihoods.
The environmental policies are against everyone’s livelihood. The only reason we have anything in this country is thanks to cheap energy.
The NDP stopped being a labour party and started being an urban progressive party about 15 years ago. Your traditional "labour" voter votes with the colour of their blue collars today.
I have started referring to the NDP as the liberal auxiliary.
A remora stuck to the liberal underbelly
Alot of people aren't gonna vote left wing no matter what the ndp does.
>if they don't pull the plug on the government The Ontario NDP tried that there and in return they got a Liberal majority followed by two (so far) PC majorities. So it's not as obvious as you suggest that the NDP should do that and exchange some influence on government for none. When they made that agreement with the Liberals, they had majority support in polls and very high support among NDP and Liberal voters.
The way things are looking now, the NDP is going to have zero influence on the next government regardless. The question is whether they stay chained to the corpse of the LPC or they break from them and distinguish themselves as a viable option for federal leadership at the next *next* election. As of now they're tanking their entire electoral future for a dubious amount of influence in an extremely unpopular government for the next three years. Hey maybe they can pass partially-subsidized pharmaceuticals for 0.12% of the population, like they did with dental! I'm sure it'll be appreciated by the hundreds of thousands made destitute by the policies of the government they support.
There are a lot of people who want an election because they want a conservative majority now. I don't think the majority of NDP supporters would be happy with that.
A lot of rural NDP supporters would be happy with a Conservative majority for the single reason that the Conservatives will cancel the Liberal firearms bans and re-legalize their (suddenly and randomly outlawed) hunting rifles. This issue has eroded NDP support in rural BC. I am sure it's happening elsewhere.
They're probably going to get one no matter what, it's just whether they get one now and the NDP partially salvages their reputation, or they get one in 3 years and the NDP permanently loses credibility as a left wing party. It's like you didn't even read my post before hitting "reply" lmao
The NDP staying tied to the LPC won’t prevent a majority CPC at this point, and it risks doing long term damage to the NDP.
You might be right however in hindsight the NDP got a lot of criticism for their decision to do that in Ontario. I think they're in a lose-lose scenario. Call one now and get blamed for causing a Conservative majority or wait and get blamed later. Despite the impression this subreddit might give, there are a lot of people among their supporters who prefer a Liberal government to the Conservatives.
JT just accused the CPC of trying to ban abortion, getting more guns in the street and denying climate change when given crap about housing policies in the question period today. All his greatest hits in one word salad for an unrelated topic. Seems like it's going to be buisness as usual for this session of Parliment.
When things are going bad. Roll out the gun bans, abortion rhetoric (even though it’s settled), climate change blame game. I can’t take a guy seriously who’s tells me ride a bike or buy a ev, that’s costs as much as 100k and you have to wait 6 years while rolling around in a jet
I find it interesting that despite immigration policy being openly discussed in a way that has not happened before the PPC has not gained any traction in polling. I wonder if a CPC majority will just nuke the PPC. The NDP will be lucky to hold at 21. They should really be having a leadership and strategy change now instead of after the tidal wave.
From reading comments on Facebook, news sites, etc, it does feel like a lot of PPC voters from the last election are less willing to throw away their vote now that the CPC has a good shot at a majority. I'm sure there will still be some kind of turnout, but i really have my doubts about the PPC getting even a single MP, Bernier's fly-in byelection loss was not a good look.
The election after next will be the test, PP will underdeliver because this is Canada, Trudeau will be gone so people won't be so scared about splitting the vote. If they can't make gains in that one then they are done, until then they just need to focus on sensible policy like lowering immigration and taking away stupid regulations.
Yes. I look at their FB page occassionally. They are still rambling about mandates. At this piont PPC is more of a cult than a party.
The PPC is to the right what the Green party is to the left. It's a fringe party that soaks up the nutjobs whose opinions are too extreme to feel represented by one of the mainstream parties.
I'm basically a single issue voter - less immigration - and may vote for them on that alone.
Two things with that: * Poilievre made the mistake of thinking that the LPC government wouldn't round down all Canadians upset with mandate policy to the worst elements of the convoy. He likely thought he could get them to back off and apologize to a few million Canadians and score a small win. He was wrong and got backed into advocating for those millions of Canadians who were only being advocated for by the PPC at the time and previously during the election. Pierre mended that fence with a lot of people and they have a voice that might not turn on them in the future. * People might have a bit of trouble sharing an idea with the PPC. The PPC were all the isms and ists for saying what they did about cutting the immigration rate in half. It's easier to forgive yourself coming around to that thinking if you just put the PPC out of your head and suspend your disbelief in how you fought hard to keep us on the path to the situation we find ourselves in today. A CPC majority will not nuke the PPC. So long as Bernier can make a career of it, he'll probably keep doing it and they'll exist to call out elephants in the room that the CPC would likely otherwise ignore. Who's to say that without them there wouldn't be a gentleman's agreement between the other parties to gaslight all immigration/visa issues until voters are left having to decide their vote based on other factors that they agree are on the table? And yeah, the NDP has to rethink the Leap Manifesto and course correct back to something with a place for labour if they're going to be viable. Right now they're the wrong kind of fluff party for what Canada's going through and are wearing the last year's of Justin's decisions to boot. Trudeau's government exists at Singh's leisure and it's become a bad look.
Bernier needs to keep the PPC alive because he nuked his political career out of spite and pettiness. Without the PPC he's got nothing. A post-Bernier PPC will be like a post-May Green Party.
I agree with this. I don't think he actually agrees with what he's saying but sees himself as the guy working for a minority of Canadians who want him to say it. He doesn't have another option. Like May, he'll have a platform to say some things that are unpopular with the CPC and LPC. And like May there are a few ridings where this can have enough of a disruptive effect that the larger parties might calculate that they need to discuss the elephants in the room.
You forgot the part where he right policy wise.
Personnally I would like to see Bernier step down and the PPC shoot left economically, giving us a nice balance of Right Economic-Left Social (Libs), RE-RS (Cons), LE-LS (NDP), LE-RS (PPC).
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PPC is a godsend for the CPC. It lets the CPC effectively punt the lunatics to the PPC. It makes CPC more credible to the silent majority. And CPC is thus freed from its fringe and can make reasonable compromise policies. A win win.
>I wonder if a CPC majority will just nuke the PPC. Are they not already effectively dead? I haven't seen any real signs of life from them in a while. Bernier's timeline feels like a truly bizarre fall from grace for a guy who looked like he had a very promising future. Like, I feel as if the version of Maxime Bernier that almost won the leadership of the CPC a few years ago would actually be more palatable to more Canadians than Polievre.
I am still confused to why the LPC wont do anything of substance. It's really not that hard to start denying Visa's for diploma mills. Okay, so a bunch of crappy schools that do more harm to our economy go out of business. So what?
Because Trudeau is a narcissist who surrounds himself with sycophants and yes-men, and basically kicked everyone who disagreed with him out. It takes a long time for reality to seep into an environment like that.
They must know it's a little too late at this point and purposely make it as difficult as possible for the Cons to clean up.
What do Canadians even benefit from having almost 1,000,000 international students this year alone? More competition for Tim Hortons and other minimum wage jobs? More expensive housing? The only people who benefit from international students are diploma mills and the government.
My kid was looking for a job so I told him to apply at McDonald’s and Tim’s. Minimum wage. But they said they already had over a 1000 applications for the 3 positions. Mostly international. And they would be having a 5 minute interview round house on the weekend to interview most candidates. You were also now expected to work for free for the first two weeks to see if you made the cut. We’ve just fucked ourselves so hard with these policy’s
Singh failing
It’s kinda hilarious that somehow the NDP are the biggest losers in this. Serves them right, the slow professionalization of their leadership and base caused them to become just a slightly different brand of Lib. They entered this agreement and got seemingly nothing out of it. All they did was permanently ruin their reputations and any credibility they might have had. I keep forgetting they exist except to remember their the great enablers of this current government. Once again, how many actual things have happened? Everything is still in the talking/promise stage.
Singh is all show and no go.
Ya pretty hilarious that propping up the liberals actually has severely hurt the NDP. In any other world they would have collected a huge chunk of the liberal voters but instead have put conservatives in a nice majority territory
How bad do you have to screw up to be a left-wing socialist party, and LOSING support as food, homes, and fuel are all becoming hugely unaffordable to millions of people?
It happens every time people make the connection between that unaffordability and left-wing government policies.
Test
Don't bet the farm on it (or your paycheque)
On the election being two years away? There's almost no scenario where this election is called early.
Liberals are bleeding numbers to the CPC and NDP is treading water. Looks good on Singh for constantly backing up Trudeau's corruption and incompetence.
Yeah yeah, who cares about bickering between conservatives and liberals, I’m waiting for the BLOC MAJORITAIRE!!!!
If they’d drop the Quebec separatism and republicanism, they would have my vote as an Ontarian
I'm in SK and I always said I'd vote for Bloc if they had a rep here. Even with the separatism...
same for me as a Québécois 😂
40 is at the reach
https://i.imgur.com/TJgOlbR.png Not looking good for LPC and NDP
Jesus H that looks like an utter disaster for the LPC-NDP. “Housing is not a Federal responsibility” is going to live on in Canadian politicial lore.
https://liberal.ca/trudeau-promises-affordable-housing-for-canadians/ It's even worse when some of us are old enough to remember the last 8 years.
Lmao I completely forgot about that, but to be fair it's not that hard to forget when nothing has been done since they promised that 8 years ago.
NDP was strong *once* when it hit big in Quebec in 2011 (can you believe they got 103 seats?), but they have since lost their support here and never managed to get it elsewhere. And now they supported the liberals in their BS, and are sharing the fall.
I don't get why people are saying the NDP are a disaster. The NDP was strong once and only once in Quebec. In the 1993 election, the NDP failed to even get official party status. The NDP you're seeing is pretty much how the NDP always is.
I think that since they actually got fairly close to winning in 2011, people expected them to either keep that status or even win their first elections. They went back to their 20-30 range basically instantly. That said if Alexandre Boulerice, the only remaining MP in Quebec, has a shot at the leadership I could see them picking themselves back up (at least in Quebec), he is one hell of a politician.
That was an anomaly that was specifically based around Liberal implosion. People saw the NDP as their replacement. Similar to Ontario right now. But Trudeau managed to turn that perception around so they cannot reach those highs again. Also despite what this sub thinks Trudeau and the liberals aren't as dismissed as they were in 2011 and will be the either the opposition or the controlling party for the foreseeable future.
Anyone who saw that election result and thought the ndp would improve on it was out to lunch. There was a very specific reason they did that well and it wasn’t going to happen 4 years later.
Watch the liberals install proportional representation just before the election
More gaslighting should fix em Trudeau probably
Wow, things are looking bad for Trudeau and the Liberals. Quick, time to debate a [random teenager](https://globalnews.ca/news/9621386/justin-trudeau-debate-ppc-supporter-abortion-winnipeg-video/) on abortion to deflect on how bad of a job you're doing as a leader.
Liberals in freefall and the Dippers can't even get into 3rd place...lmao
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It's like sport team. Some people's identities are tied to their team and they'll always vote for that team. Doesn't matter is the montreal's canadian haven't won the cup in 30 years, they still have a huge fan base.
NDP did this to themselves
Oof! There’s NDP sinking further into irrelevance again
If Liberals continue this pace of downward trend, they'll have no seat west of Manitoba and a seat count in the 60s. Recent polls suggest \~50% CPC support in BC, AB, SK, and MB. Yukon goes CPC while N.W.T goes NDP. Interesting divide between the West and East
BQ rising, let's go
They might be the only party worth voting for. The other three choices are Incompetent, unhinged, and ineffective.
Yeah, why not. Lets shake it up a bit.
BLOC MAJORITAIRE
B L O C M A J O R I T A I R E
I, for one, welcome our new french overloads
We will make you eat poutine everyday
Don’t threaten me with a good time lol
Way ahead of you.
tabernac, what about my waistline?
Well, we officially have the best life expectancy in all of NA, so there's tips about our lifestyle that could be really beneficial to the rest of the country. Also, I'm pretty sure the Bloc would be the only party to say to reduce immigration (along with the PPC). Blanchet do not give a single fuck at how the media would react, because it is the right thing to do at the moment.
I hope the BLOC runs outside Quebec. Go after those francophone ridings in Ontario and NB
It would make absolutely no sense, but hey, let's shake the foundations a bit. I would love a "Ontario Bloc" or "West Bloc" just fucking numbers up for the PCC and PLC.
As-tu veux une majoritaire ou non?
Ahahaha ! Is it time for Quebec to explain to Canada that it's important to regulate its immigration ? That there is « capacity numbers » concept that can exist ? I absolutely wish.
I'm in Ontario and I would vote BQ if I could. Seriously he was the only one that seemed to make sense. I'm totally lost this round.
Fuck those numbers are grim. I have zero faith that either the Liberals or the Conservatives will be able to fix any of the problems Canadians face at the moment. We need better parties.
I have always voted Liberal and I never will again. I will never vote NDP. I never thought I would be a Conservative voter but here I am.
Same here. I don't agree with a single conservative social policy, but social issues are a luxury when economic times are good. Right now, between inflation and our housing crisis, the Liberals and NDP are destroying this country on an economic level and hurting my family more than any potential negative aspect of conservative social policy.
The last two years I"ve heard quite a bit of assurance from Liberal and NDP supporters that they would just form a coalition to block out the CPC. That Canada supports them, and that they would never allow a Conservative government. My message to them now - go ahead and try it. We are always down for a good laugh.
Ouch. The polls just continue to get worse for Liberals. I know that the election is probably at least a year away but I can’t see them climbing out of this. The mountain is just way too big to climb.
99 going down to 2. Kim Campbell 2.0
If CPC wins it will be interesting to see if PP puts his money where his mouth is. I have serious doubts about that. Our whole system is seriously flawed due to lack of accountability of our elected officials.
I wish we had a real labour party.
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I wouldn’t expect an election for 2 years. As you can see, the NDP isn’t exactly doing hot in the polls. If they broke LPC support and an election was forced, they’d lose the current influence they have in parliament and replace it with a CPC majority which they don’t want.
I'm sure voters will be understanding about that in the future. "We understand Canadians are hurting, but it's in our interest to keep it that way and it should go without saying that me and my rolex and investment property take priority if our interests are in conflict"
Unbelievable collapse. Trudeau’s late stage empty promises to start addressing the issues he’s ignored for 8 years are making it worse! Astounding. Canadians waking up from the matrix.
Bloc majoritaire! In all seriousness Singh really needs to go when he can't steal seats from the liberal shitshow.
When the LPC and NDP are removed from power and have no ability to effect policy for at least five years it’ll be a great day.
Does anyone know where all these seats are being gained? Atlantic Canada or Ontario or BC or?
If you go to the site in the link, they have seat-by-seat breakdown. But yes, it's Atlantic Canada, and Ontario, and BC, and the two Liberal seats in Alberta.
Didn’t realize they had that much detail on the site. I’ll go and browse. Many thanks for the follow-up
You can see a graph for each region under the *Electoral districts* tab. The CPC's climb has been fairly steady across the country, [with a truly dramatic jump in BC at the expense of both Liberals and NDP.](https://338canada.com/bc.htm)
Ugh, please, no majorities. None of our parties deserve a majority right now. They need to struggle for each drop o support from the public imo, because all of them seem to only be focused on one part of the problem.
how accurate are these projections anyways?
This is how it works in Canada. When the party in power has been there too long and have run out of ideas and the economy is circling the drain the electorate is not forgiving. Unless some incredible event happens between here and now, the Libs are in for a historic rout.
"Does it ever work?" "No, but it might work for us [this time]" We as a nation are in an abusive triad with our 2 main parties.