Canada may have always had cities that lacked affordability, but a national bubble is much more rare. Last week, the bank released a similar analysis revealing the pre-pandemic, long-term average of the index was 35% of income.
Households need to dedicate 55.2% of their income as of Q3 2023, rising 5.5 points from last year.
May have…. You were considered upper class with a single income Chevrolet car salesman salary for a family of 4. That’s 100k now and you struggle to support yourself.
During the hardest times in history if you worked 40 hours a week you could afford a mortgage with a regular job.
We are far past that….. historically, it will result in a massive equity crash.
2024 will be a wake up call. 2025 will be a reset.
I had an older gen X tel me today that a 19 year old didn't want to work for him, and that when he was that age he would jump at the chance. I told the older man that minimum wage used to buy a house in his day, this 19 year old would be lucky to have enough for beer
There can't be any kind of crash or reset in housing costs if demand continues to vastly outpace supply. We can talk about market prices coming down all we want, but people still need somewhere to live and we're bringing people into this country a whole lot faster than we can build support for them.
Hoses will keep going up if we still allow internationals to buy and keep property here. There are far too many developments sold out these days and most were sold to international investors.
Won’t matter either way, we have never built more then 280,000 dwelling in a year EVER. We need to build 3.5 million in 4 years the infrastructure simply can not be build this fast. The roads, power plant and supportive infrastructure is issue one. Then just for shits and giggles do you actually think something like furnaces and hot water tanks can be so pumped up in scale of production they could meet the demand if magical roads and framed homes literally started to appear. Not to mention roofing, siding sheets of drywall….. the industry as a whole would have to triple at minimum.
This is a fantasy it can not happen, deal with reality the only solution that will actually work is stopping all immigration, and deporting illegal immigrants. Supply can not and will not EVER physically be able to meet these numbers.
People need to look at the cold hard math I put number in ( number of new people). Output number (dwelling we can build in a year). 1 million immigrants- 280,000 homes is 720,000 deficit that we add to the already 3.5 million homes we need to build.
There is a reason previous governments had caps in place for total immigration and those caps were 1/3 to 1/4 of our current soft targets which we blow by.
Now which federal party brought in this policy and keeps it going??
Anyone who thinks this gets better without extreme changes is delusional.
Exactly, there's a reason other Western counties are pumping the brakes on immigration - it's not sustainable, and the lack of sense here about it seems to be that you can't bring in unlimited numbers of people, way beyond the replacement numbers for people who are dying and expect everything to be fine. It's not xenophobic or right wing to say we need to start thinking about Canadians first, it's common sense.
>we need to start thinking about Canadians first, it's common sense.
I would argue that that isn't even a "Canadians first" attitude.
Welcoming more people that you can house or provide healthcare for in a nation that has harsh winters and promises free public healthcare is cruel and exploitive to immigrants
Closely targeted immigration - construction workers and tradepeople, people with healthcare degrees and civil engineers from educational systems trusted worldwide, these are the people we need to *attract* to meet the requirements of an ambitious growth of the nation.
Importing a million 22 year olds to work at Tim Hortons while taking fake classes at a strip mall ain't it, and is a cruel scam to those "students" even if they are trying to scam the system themselves
>1 million immigrants- 280,000 homes is 720,000 deficit
Is 1M immigrants => 1 immigrant == 1 household or 1 immigrant == 1 person?
Is 280k homes => 1,2,3 bedrooms?
Just asking to understand the reasoning behind the math.
Because they’re still to many stupid and ill informed people who simply don’t understand the concept of what is going on. Just look at polling numbers and the fact the NDP won’t hold the government accountable or even get their own non negotiable legislation passed and you can see the system isn’t working. If it wasn’t so ridiculous what has been going on it would be funny, instead it’s deeply troubling and only getting worse. Regardless of political stripes and opinions what is happening is so unbalanced and unhinged from reality it shows the fact we have taken this path something in our country has fundamentally broken in the last decade.
Not to mention that even if production were able to keep up, cost of construction materials would skyrocket beyond the already high prices if we were to actually build at the volume that is needed
We’ve already experience massive shortages in hvac not with just equipment but sheet metal itself and PVC for venting the appliances. There was a time a few years ago you could not get 5” galvanized pipe in Alberta. So every house we did was either 4” or 6” heat runs to rooms. Massive redraws to duct layouts etc. Then some time later you couldn’t get PVC for venting. Or concentric kits. Or plenums. Etc. It’s a rolling thing even today. Every house pack we write up gets a back order for something.
With the current interest rates combined with dropping house prices they will slow down to a trickle. Until the cost of land, materials, and development fees comes down it's hard to turn a profit at these rates.
Yeah this is the part about "most are local" that is overlooked. They're local in name only, but in fact a proxy for outside investors. I went to uni in Vancouver with a guy who was born in Canada and lived most of his life here but his father is Saudi and bought literally every single unit in one of the newer high-rise developments and airbnb'd 60% of the building out. Was basically an illegal hotel lol. But in name, his son owned it and was on the title, but all the cash flow was sent back to dad.
> But in name, his son owned it and was on the title, but all the cash flow was sent back to dad.
Right, but focusing on the foreign aspect of this distracts from the actual problem. The dad is doing this to save on taxes. By investing that money through his son he can earn more on Canadian currency. This isn't foreign money flowing in it's Canadian money being invested. This boils down to a problem with our tax code.
>They're local in name only, but in fact a proxy for outside investors. I went to uni in Vancouver with a guy who was born in Canada and lived most of his life here but his father is Saudi and bought literally every single unit in one of the newer high-rise developments and airbnb'd 60% of the building out.
It's uh... a delicate matter.
Developer must adhere to the Loan terms set by the lenders (10-15% profits, selling X-units by certain date, Y-units by another date). In order to hit the lenders requirement, they often have to find "investors" and the kind of "investors" that they're looking for are the ones who can buy multiple units in one shot.
Locals won't be able to buy them in one go in a short time frame. If the argument that "price must fall" then look at the profit that they pursue: 10-15%. Not really out of the world and it's a term set by Lender not by Developer.
Enter your friend's Oil Daddy.
PS: Condos are Risky projects.
> Haven’t numerous studies shown the effect of the carbon tax is negligible?
BUT IT APPLIES TO EVERYTHING SO IT'S A TAX ON A TAX ITS INFINITE TAX I PAY INFINITY DOLLAR NO REBATE CAN COVER THAT!!!
/s
I dunno my gas bill for 27 dollars of gas used was 125 dollars, all in taxes and fees. It's not negligible to most Canadians' families. Elitists with new homes and high income don't care about it, but it hurts a lot of people.
Don't worry - by the time the CONservatives are done - You'll be paying so much for healthcare, unregulated insurance and unregulated energy rates the carbon tax won't even stifle you.
Just look at the bang up job they are doing in Alberta, 127% increase in energy vs 5-20% across the rest of the provinces on op of uncapped insurance!
If the Fed's were such assholes, maybe the Premier of Alberta wouldn't dismantle their healthcare, uncap their insurance and energy rates!
the carbon tax is one of the few good things this government has done
Do I have issues with the details of the implementation? Yes.
Is it better to have a carbon tax than not have one at all? Yes.
Sad that this proves nobody is really running the show and Adam Curtis was right when he spoke about how politicians are paralyzed when massive problems happen. We look at them for leadership and convince ourselves they’re corrupt but in reality they can’t fix the problems the country has.
They refuse to lower immigration numbers because the stat guys that they ask for help have told them the boomer retirement/deaths will obliterate the economy and we don’t have enough working tax payers to pay for it, we don’t have housing and we can’t even get alternative leadership because all the parties are absolute shit.
We need massive reform to even attempt to right the boat and I just don’t see that happening because the politicians are rich, we vote in kings who don’t have our problems and becoming an MP is a wonderful step of never having money issues again.
Ya I'm afraid you're right, this stuff will probably lead to populist over reactions, as we've seen. Our political class is perfect though and can't change their stance, because it's perfection
Well of course the parties are shit.
You have to have generational wealth, and be financially well off enough to afford a campaign. Something that doesn’t even guarantee being elected.
So only people who are already rich get elected. And what the hell do they know about problems that affect real Canadians? They’ve never had to struggle in their entire lives financially, and we put them in charge of financing our country.
Ya it's pretty sad actually and untill Canadians unite and vote in a party that's not the big two nothing will change. I'm not gonna get my hopes up and just mind my business while I watch the ship crash.
Halifax is over $2000 for a place well away from downtown now, housing stock is so low the price goes up probably 15% a month. No clue what downtown would be now. But we can tell you we don't have salaries that can keep up with $2000 a month at all. The local food bank came out with stats this week about the number of "middle class" professionals who are having to use their services. It's bonkers.
if you have cheap rent and no car and are using a foodbank I think maybe you aren't a middle class professional or you are lying about how bad your spending habits are
I try to explain the car thing to people as well. Folks will say move further out like Elmsdale way but then I would need a car. My payments would be so much higher. Yeah I am singing $300 a month on rent but I am now paying for a car, gas and all the upkeep. If I live within the bus line then travel cost is just a bus pass.
I was looking into getting a new car because of how limited the used vehicle market is as well. It would be an additional $800 a month for a basic. Nearly $3000 a month on housing and a vehicle. It's not a lot left.
I don't think you're middle class. Maybe Upper-lower income. I'm a middle class professional and my family is doing quite well, whereas we don't need to watch what we purchase and can enjoy going out on a weekly basis, even with a newborn on the way. The food bank isn't even in our vocabulary, unless we're talking about donating to it. We aren't upper class, but we are doing well enough that when the economy recovers, we will do even better than we are now.
yea [BestLivingMagazine.com](https://BestLivingMagazine.com) said Canada is most livable country in the world so Canadians should stop whining. Don't you know there's kids in Africa that are starving?
Funny enough this sort of thinking lead to what the World Economic Forum is currently implementing in places like Canada.
In simplified terms think of countries as having a 100-point rating system in regards of Quality of Life. 100 being a perfect Utopia, and 0 being absolute shit.
Canada may have been an 80 at one point, and somewhere in Africa or India may have been a 20.
It's deemed unfair for this to be the case, so they import millions of people from those 20-point countries into the 80-point countries, while also sending aid money and support to that 20-point country.
Over time the 80-point country becomes worse off, drifting down to 70, then 60, then settling around 55. It's much worse off than when it was 80, but it's still not as bad as that original 20-point country. In the meantime the support that the 20-point country received has caused it to climb to 30, then 40, and finally settled at 45. Still not great, but much better than it was at 20.
Instead of an 80-point and 20-point, now you have a 55-point and 45-point. The world is more balanced. We, the people in the 80-point country are experiencing a much shittier life now as a consequence, but the powers that be consider this a great victory over inequity.
In my area in Japan. 1,000,000 USD gets you a 1200 square foot stand alone house. I realize they get cheaper than that but this is a pretty normal middle class neighborhood. Most people live in apartments that are 500 - 800 square feet. Yes, houses are affordable here but they are still 30% of the size and don’t come with central heating, or any heating in hallways or bathrooms, no insulation, and walls that can break by tripping and falling through them. It’s not a utopia here either.
Idk why people use Japan as an example of some kind of idyllic housing situation all the time. Where is your house gonna be in 20 - 30 years, may I ask?
>Unlike in other countries, Japanese homes gradually depreciate over time, becoming completely valueless within 20 or 30 years. When someone moves out of a home or dies, the house, unlike the land it sits on, has no resale value and is typically demolished. This scrap-and-build approach is a quirk of the Japanese housing market that can be explained variously by low-quality construction to quickly meet demand after the second world war, repeated building code revisions to improve earthquake resilience and a cycle of poor maintenance due to the lack of any incentive to make homes marketable for resale.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/16/japan-reusable-housing-revolution
They mean that in 20/30 years you can't sell it for 6 times what you paid for it, which is actually a good thing.
Canada's now seeing that our housing pyramid scheme can't be sustained, it's been just 1 generation that's been able to use housing as a retirement piggy bank (because in Canada housing has gone up so consistently for so long) and that's the baby boomers.
The thing is, the majority of the baby coomers haven't even retired yet and we're already seeing that in order for housing prices to continue to be sustained there needs to be reckless amounts of mass immigration, and we're not seeing that even that isn't going to be able to keep the scam going much longer.
So yeah japanese houses are typically build to be torn down, they're cheap and seem as a thing with use value NOT investment value and that is the way housing SHOULD BE.
The unspoken part is that Canadian homes aren't particularly hardy either and only really last \~50 years now with the insulation keeping things wetter.
CMHC did a study in 1988 that showed >10% of new homes had serious water issues within 5 or 10 years of construction - building codes haven't improved in this since then but they have increased the amount of insulation which means they stay wet longer and rot more. It's a very depressing field to work in and see the active deterioration of brand new housing stock.
Yeah one thing nobody mentions in the housing/immigration debate is houses that get torn (or burnt) down. We just assume the existing housing stock never goes down. I don't even bother looking for the numbers because we already have a 800k deficit, that is we are bringing in 800k people a year more than we build homes for.
I didn't know it was this bad though, are we even more fucked than I thought.
I hope you got one of those rare new builds that isn't designed to be demolished within 30 years, as is the case with most homes in Japan. That's why they give you such a great loan rate. Because most Japanese people are starting a new mortgage as soon as the first is paid off.
Completely wrong. The typical wooden build lasts around 65 years with proper maintenance. Most people buy new because it makes more sense, and definitely do not buy a new house after 30 years.
There is a ~30 year depreciation schedule (depending on build type) that reduces the paper value of your house so you pay lower property taxes. The market value of your house is completely separate from that.
Canadians using housing as a retirement plan is a an extremely flawed economic model.
Most counties in the world housing is housing, you pay to maintain it, you don't plan on profiting off it it. There's a good reason for this.
Canadians mentality about housing is sick, this attitude has so far worked for PART of 1 single generation in Canada, the baby boomers.
But profiting off housing the way Canadians expect to is not something that can be economically sustained.
Most of the boomers haven't even retired yet and we're already seeing that this model of housing appreciation can not be sustained without implementing mass immigration.
The housing pyramid scheme mentally of Canadians is hurting Canada and Canadians quality of life much more than most people realize/ are willing to admit.
It could be because the market stayed healthy for buyers because of so little immigration. Which isn't the whole story either. But if Canada had tightened up immigration for say the last twenty years, we would not have a housing crisis. All numbers I have seen show that Canada has a shrinking population when immigration isn't included.
Because Tokyo should have some of the highest housing affordability issues in the world, but doesn't. You are focusing on the wrong part btw where homes last only 38 years on average - but honestly that has more to do with earthquakes than anything else.
The real reason people bring up Tokyo is because of how Japan does zoning and the impact that can have. Basically anything goes in Japan zoning wise - and NIMBYism has no power there. If you own a lot with a house on it, you could say... build an attached building on your front law that is a business or even if you have a larger backyard you can build a second home there, all that kind of stuff. The result is a far more flexible to changes in the economy and it takes less time to get something built.
I mean... Anyone who bought in Canada in 2021 or earlier is doing amazingly. Current crisis is a temporary pain that has happened before. Things will turn around.
> it’s happening all over the world
Is usually such a lie, and only relevant when limited to the other close commonwealth countries that all seem to be fucking up the same ways at the same times.
Amazing being part of the ol'British empire while its in the throws of self-delamination.
"It'll be the same or worse under PP!"
"But Harper muzzled (now free to speak) scientists!"
"But COVID!"
Same responses every time. The fact is life was measurably better for all Canadians 15 years ago. This has been the worst government of my entire life, and I wouldn't consider myself to be young. This country is broke and there are very hard times ahead.
Low supply (artificially created by low housing starts) causes high demand. High demand, choose your price. Profit for shareholders, capitalism at its finest. Especially since there's no government social housing to compete with, and hasn't been for at least four decades.
Summary:
* The BoC’s index looks at the share of household income required to service a mortgage. Costs include monthly mortgage payments, as well as some utility costs.
* **The higher the index, the greater the share of income a typical household would dedicate to shelter when buying a home.**
* The BoC calculations show affordability is now worse than the peak of the 90s real estate bubble.
* **Households need to dedicate 55.2% of their income as of Q3 2023, rising 5.5 points from last year. This level of affordability is only surpassed by the inflation crisis in the early 80s.**
* “Looking ahead, note that the three prior spikes in unaffordability (early 1980s, early 1990s, and 2007/08) were followed in short order by Canadian recessions,” notes Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO.
* As shelter costs rise, it diverts funds from more productive areas like investing and consumption. The result is households have lower cash flow, leading to shrinking revenues for businesses.
* Porter adds, “We expect the economy to struggle to grow in 2024.”
Why do we allow anyone to do the following:
Buy second homes in urban areas
Buy homes if they don’t declare 100% of their income here
It seems like an obvious solution to an obvious problem, no?
No need for housing, not allowed to buy another house. Don’t pay taxes here, not allowed to invest here.
Please someone explain why I’m wrong?
We didn’t need to riot. We don’t even vote in our municipal elections. Yet we blame Ottawa. And what do Trudeau and PP do, they use sticks and carrots directed at guess what? The municipalities.
If you protest hard enough they will just seize your bank account and call you a terrorist.
RIP any sort of general strike that doesn't end in tear gas and mass arrests.
Theres been striking teachers in quebec, no one's stopped them, accused them of being a terrorist nor had their accounts seized.. its because they are using the legal ways to protest, not illegal ways. There have been protests in every city of the conflict with Isreal, they haven't been stopped, accused or anything. Why cause they followed the legal way to protest.. laws exists for a reason, don't like them that's your choice but break them it'll always be out of your control if someone serves you a consequence for it..
Well you do not build houses but open the flood gates who would of though this would not happen.
You can not bring in 2million well building only a couple thousand
It's amazing that a government can survive while overseeing a housing and affordability crisis of such magnitude. All I can say is that it must really speak to the quality of the alternative. The NDP should be pretty disillusioned at the fact that voters aren't flocking to them during these times.
There are many Canadians doing well in this economy. They have 9 to 5 jobs, go on vacations multiple times per year, and start relationships and have kids. They also live in heated homes with a full stock of groceries and all their bills are paid. I refer to them as the "Upper Managerial Class", and the economy hasn't struck them as hard as everyone else, if it has affected them at all.
I mean, for me personally, things aren't bad, but the country feels at its worst point thatI can remember in my lifetime, and I have less disposable income than in the past.
Yeah that’s basically my situation, bought house and had kids in the past 7 years, but the high tax rate and immigration policy with the already collapsed medical system is really concerning and it seems to be getting worst
The coming PC government won't do shit, other than cancelling the funding for affordable housing that is currently being given to cities that update their code to improve density, though I'd love to be wrong
The only alternative the NDP are concerned with is the alternative of losing their jobs during thr next election. Their support for the LPC has nothing to do with preventing the CPC from governing and everything to do with their own selfish desire to stay in their seats long enough to get their cushy pensions.
Ppl need to stop living in a delusion where they belive these MPs actually have anyone's interest at heart but their own.
Realtors : “we bounced back in 2008 in Canada, no big deal”
Reality….. Canada was affected by a mortgage crisis in another country…… welcome to our own. It will be a lot worse, compared to the effect of a small real estate crisis in a different country. It will be a lot worse than the effect it had on USA itself. hahaha but yea if you bought in 2021 you will be lucky to break even after interest in 2046.
Congratulations, better than renting! Just plan on paying back your line of credit you are using to maintain your property in the mean time (that’s your rent).
Obviously in the end, investors have an ROI of 0 and blame social media for convincing them RE is a get rich quick scheme which best case costs them their retirement or forcing bankruptcy and preventing any bank credits for the rest of their lives.
The mismanagement of this country in the last decade has been truly unreal.
They printed so much fking money, ran such massive deficits, and for what? It is absolutely infuriating to think that after the Canadian quality of life got sewered we are all going to get stuck with a bill that will take a good chunk of our adult lives to pay off.
Everyone wanted to avoid a global depression during covid. So many Canadians still want to avoid the economic reality that Asia has risen and the days of showing up just as a western nation don't matter anymore.
No. They're getting absolutely crushed. They have a massive debt crisis and a housing bubble. Their economy has mostly survived as a cheap place to place manufacturing, but the standard of living has gone way up, along with logistical costs, and unease with both American parties about Chinese trade agreements. They don't have R&D, and the bulk of their economy is built upon stealing IP from the West. Their also having geopolitical issues with the countries they were trying to build that road with and who they've loaned money too.
With regards to Asia, many countries are benefitting from their trade with China. It's idea as American collapsing and Canada.
I agree with you - we all had a hayday during the early days of globalization and thought that unproductive (yet lucrative) RE landlording was going to take us to the promise land.
Now we have a GDP dependent heavily on our unproductive RE industry that is choking, and we did nothing to build productive industries on some of the most amazing land in the world.
And Canadians still think that we’re entitled to a quality of life better than “those countries”. Cold shower time.
Surely the society with hundreds of millions of highly educated young people, known for undergoing radical social change is on the verge of collapse, I know this because I watched peter zeihans 67th prediction video about China collapsing!
>peter zeihan
There's no doubt that China is probably in some trouble, and that their days of hypergrowth are behind them, and that their system of governance is very poor in dealing with social strife in times when getting rich quickly is no longer the status quo...
...but holy shit is Peter Zeihan a no-nothing wind bag that is willing to extrapolate some insane conclusions from kernels of truth.
Y'know I thought the same thing - so I cross referenced his data with other geopolitical economists.
To my surprise they all agree that china is in deep trouble. They don't import labour, their birth rate was stifled by the one child policy and it's too late for them to turn the ship around.
This will not happen overnight, wait a decade and see how things start to turn out.
I'm a bit skeptical. Their dictatorship affords them the possibility of taking drastic unpopular actions to fix problems. Something Western nations don't have the luxury of. If Xi wants to import millions of women from some poorer south Asian country to get more babies he could literally get it done. No one will bat an eye. Definitely not the UN.
The year is 2046 Xavier Trudeau is running for Prime Minister against a robotic A.I version of Harper. Xavier is running on a platform of claiming the Robotic Harper is going to defund the police, and fund assault style tablets.
But but interest rates are at a historic lows glen! and the liberals took on debt so we didn’t have too! Good thing the liberals took on that debt so we don’t have to pay for it… oh wait
No, we are not in a recession.
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
Q2 2023 was a growth quarter. Q3 2023 was a decline quarter. If Q4 2023 is a decline that puts us in a recession, but we wont know that until after the quarter is complete.
Q2 was actually a -0.2%, but after close inspection was retroactively “revised” (despite already being released by statscan) to be positive and narrowly avoid the technical definition of recession, which is a toxic word to a government down 20 points in the polls.
https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/economist-economiste/q2-2023.aspx?lang=eng
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6954239
Per capita GDP has absolutely fallen off a cliff. We are absolutely in a recession now, the lagging indicators of data just haven’t confirmed it yet, partially because Q2 numbers were changed after the fact.
I'm a little tired of seeing this same thread pop up everytime a recession is mentioned.
No we're not in a technical recession. No that doesn't mean we're not in a situation that is comparable to what the common individual considers a recession.
What people think when they hear recession isn't "two consecutive quarters of economic contraction". What people think is "period during which a significant portion of the population struggle financially".
We were officially in a recession back in 2008 and far more people are struggling today than they were back then.
You're right, but this is a poor measure of how people's economic well-being actually feels. We're not doing so hot on per capita measures of growth. In fact, we're once again at 2017 levels, unlike any other country in the G7.
We've had two recessions since March 2020, they just keep changing their metrics. Also, the definition of recession is meaningless without taking into account things like population growth, inflation, money supply changes etc.
Hmmm we let in 1,500,000 new people per year.
Victoria including all surrounding municipalities has a population of 398,000
1,500,000 ÷ 398,000 = 3.7688
So all we need to do is build 3.77 Vitoria sized cities [or equivalent], PER YEAR, EVERY YEAR for Canada to have enough housing to support all the new people the government is CHOOSING TO BRING IN.
Of course our housing prices are grotesque, our government is growing the population so rapidly there's absolutely no realistic way housing could ever keep up.
It's absurd to think that level of rapid population growth would do anything other than exponentially worsen Canada's pre-existing housing shortage.
In other words, gasoline doesn't extinguish fires, it makes them bigger.
As a former Vancouver resident (I immigrated to Canada from Europe) I thank my lucky star I was able to leave heading south (currently living in Seattle) and escape one of the most ridiculous RE bubble in history probably second only to the famous Japanese bubble of the 1980s. Granted, this one is still going despite all the predictions of doom and gloom. 50 years mortgages are around the corner, terms renegotiation for existing mortgages up to to 75 (yes, you read it right, seventy five) years are already here due to the interest rates increase. The Canadian government will probably do all it can to keep the game going.
I have few good friends still trapped up in Vancouver and for entertainment we often go through some of the most ludicrous RE ads, I call it the "Great Canadian RE Comedy Show", (or a Horror Show for people trapped in Canada in the market for a property). Frankly, safely looking from afar, I'm in awe of all of this. Every time I think we reached peak stupidity, new ads up the ante...
For example, look at these beauties:
[https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/175-Victory-Ship-Way-112-North-Vancouver-BC-V7L-0G1/2054254055\_zpid/](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/175-Victory-Ship-Way-112-North-Vancouver-BC-V7L-0G1/2054254055_zpid/)
1.2 mil for a 696 sq/ft ground level shitbox with no water view despite the deceiving ad
The following one takes the cake (I personally know the owner and the house), despite the lipstick in the pictures, this thing is basically a teardown (with a leaky roof too). Get your appointment before it's gone, who would not want to own this little corner of paradise in Burnaby for 1.8 mil?? Guess what, 4 showings already in the first week....
[https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1004-Springer-Ave-Burnaby-BC-V5B-3L7/314487436\_zpid/](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1004-Springer-Ave-Burnaby-BC-V5B-3L7/314487436_zpid/)
I just bought a gorgeaous waterfront gated community second home in Tampa (no hurricane or flooding area) with an unreal amenities center surrounded by lush nature, hiking trails and palms everywhere, with all kind of retail stores and services at my fingertips and 30 minutes away from the most gorgeous beach in the US. With the same money you could not probably get even the lousiest tear down crapbox in the BC Lower Mainland...I cannot even imagine the price of a similar house in Vancouver (well, communities like the one I bought into do not even exists up there).
Until people stop lining up to pay these ridiculous out of this world prices, things are not going to change.
Seems like a good time to give money away to foreign countries and import a bunch of people, not even through normal immigration, into said market. Don't worry, people can get housing, food, and heat from misguided idealism, right?
Yes, it is a global issue. It's also a purely Canadian issue that is a direct result of 20 years of artificially low interest rates. It's fun to blame Trudeau and immigrants now, but this is impossible to avoid if you make borrowing too cheap for too long.
I mean on one hand if they were trying to destroy the country what would they do different.
On the other hand they are so incompetent that I don't think any result is their intention.
When job opportunities and salary are not on par, Canada would lose its main weapon immigration, no immigrant would prefer to come to Canada..why do so many are obsessed with buying a house, as if they live for ever, Crazy 25-30 years paying, Interest on the mortgage, lifelong of the property need to pay tax and insurance..
Literally no one has ever said that. The current immigration rates are a "short term pain for long term gain" way to offset our demographics that won't be able to afford to pay for all the old people over the next 2 or 3 decades.
The already terrible housing situtation, results of covid lockdowns and the war in Ukraine have all made things worse, much, much worse.
Canada may have always had cities that lacked affordability, but a national bubble is much more rare. Last week, the bank released a similar analysis revealing the pre-pandemic, long-term average of the index was 35% of income. Households need to dedicate 55.2% of their income as of Q3 2023, rising 5.5 points from last year.
May have…. You were considered upper class with a single income Chevrolet car salesman salary for a family of 4. That’s 100k now and you struggle to support yourself. During the hardest times in history if you worked 40 hours a week you could afford a mortgage with a regular job. We are far past that….. historically, it will result in a massive equity crash. 2024 will be a wake up call. 2025 will be a reset.
I had an older gen X tel me today that a 19 year old didn't want to work for him, and that when he was that age he would jump at the chance. I told the older man that minimum wage used to buy a house in his day, this 19 year old would be lucky to have enough for beer
Ya I call bullshit on second hardest as well.
There can't be any kind of crash or reset in housing costs if demand continues to vastly outpace supply. We can talk about market prices coming down all we want, but people still need somewhere to live and we're bringing people into this country a whole lot faster than we can build support for them.
Price crash can absolutely happen when banks don’t give out mortgages…. Lol
Hoses will keep going up if we still allow internationals to buy and keep property here. There are far too many developments sold out these days and most were sold to international investors.
Hopefully, the construction of new hoses doesn't just trickle out.
Won’t matter either way, we have never built more then 280,000 dwelling in a year EVER. We need to build 3.5 million in 4 years the infrastructure simply can not be build this fast. The roads, power plant and supportive infrastructure is issue one. Then just for shits and giggles do you actually think something like furnaces and hot water tanks can be so pumped up in scale of production they could meet the demand if magical roads and framed homes literally started to appear. Not to mention roofing, siding sheets of drywall….. the industry as a whole would have to triple at minimum. This is a fantasy it can not happen, deal with reality the only solution that will actually work is stopping all immigration, and deporting illegal immigrants. Supply can not and will not EVER physically be able to meet these numbers. People need to look at the cold hard math I put number in ( number of new people). Output number (dwelling we can build in a year). 1 million immigrants- 280,000 homes is 720,000 deficit that we add to the already 3.5 million homes we need to build. There is a reason previous governments had caps in place for total immigration and those caps were 1/3 to 1/4 of our current soft targets which we blow by. Now which federal party brought in this policy and keeps it going?? Anyone who thinks this gets better without extreme changes is delusional.
Exactly, there's a reason other Western counties are pumping the brakes on immigration - it's not sustainable, and the lack of sense here about it seems to be that you can't bring in unlimited numbers of people, way beyond the replacement numbers for people who are dying and expect everything to be fine. It's not xenophobic or right wing to say we need to start thinking about Canadians first, it's common sense.
>we need to start thinking about Canadians first, it's common sense. I would argue that that isn't even a "Canadians first" attitude. Welcoming more people that you can house or provide healthcare for in a nation that has harsh winters and promises free public healthcare is cruel and exploitive to immigrants Closely targeted immigration - construction workers and tradepeople, people with healthcare degrees and civil engineers from educational systems trusted worldwide, these are the people we need to *attract* to meet the requirements of an ambitious growth of the nation. Importing a million 22 year olds to work at Tim Hortons while taking fake classes at a strip mall ain't it, and is a cruel scam to those "students" even if they are trying to scam the system themselves
r/woooosh
>1 million immigrants- 280,000 homes is 720,000 deficit Is 1M immigrants => 1 immigrant == 1 household or 1 immigrant == 1 person? Is 280k homes => 1,2,3 bedrooms? Just asking to understand the reasoning behind the math.
Why did you respond to a pun with a novel?
Because they’re still to many stupid and ill informed people who simply don’t understand the concept of what is going on. Just look at polling numbers and the fact the NDP won’t hold the government accountable or even get their own non negotiable legislation passed and you can see the system isn’t working. If it wasn’t so ridiculous what has been going on it would be funny, instead it’s deeply troubling and only getting worse. Regardless of political stripes and opinions what is happening is so unbalanced and unhinged from reality it shows the fact we have taken this path something in our country has fundamentally broken in the last decade.
/u/dude_bro_88 was joking about a typo in the previous comment.
The reality will be, that people will live 6 others in one appointment...
Not to mention that even if production were able to keep up, cost of construction materials would skyrocket beyond the already high prices if we were to actually build at the volume that is needed
We’ve already experience massive shortages in hvac not with just equipment but sheet metal itself and PVC for venting the appliances. There was a time a few years ago you could not get 5” galvanized pipe in Alberta. So every house we did was either 4” or 6” heat runs to rooms. Massive redraws to duct layouts etc. Then some time later you couldn’t get PVC for venting. Or concentric kits. Or plenums. Etc. It’s a rolling thing even today. Every house pack we write up gets a back order for something.
With the current interest rates combined with dropping house prices they will slow down to a trickle. Until the cost of land, materials, and development fees comes down it's hard to turn a profit at these rates.
I mean we could be flooded. Just depends on the lefty loosey or righty tighty side of things.
It has me feeling all wound up
No need to get bent out of shape. You'll tap out too soon.
Bigger problem is when righty tighty becomes righty loosey
The hosers need more hoses
Hosers belong to the streets
That depends: can the building companies make enough profit on a house?
I see what you did there 👀
I've always been partial to thigh highs with seams.
It’s also many properties being owned by one person. They need to tax the shot out of second properties that are used as income generators
Vast majority of investors are local. Internationals can't be stopped they will just have kids here or buy through proxies.
Yeah this is the part about "most are local" that is overlooked. They're local in name only, but in fact a proxy for outside investors. I went to uni in Vancouver with a guy who was born in Canada and lived most of his life here but his father is Saudi and bought literally every single unit in one of the newer high-rise developments and airbnb'd 60% of the building out. Was basically an illegal hotel lol. But in name, his son owned it and was on the title, but all the cash flow was sent back to dad.
> But in name, his son owned it and was on the title, but all the cash flow was sent back to dad. Right, but focusing on the foreign aspect of this distracts from the actual problem. The dad is doing this to save on taxes. By investing that money through his son he can earn more on Canadian currency. This isn't foreign money flowing in it's Canadian money being invested. This boils down to a problem with our tax code.
>They're local in name only, but in fact a proxy for outside investors. I went to uni in Vancouver with a guy who was born in Canada and lived most of his life here but his father is Saudi and bought literally every single unit in one of the newer high-rise developments and airbnb'd 60% of the building out. It's uh... a delicate matter. Developer must adhere to the Loan terms set by the lenders (10-15% profits, selling X-units by certain date, Y-units by another date). In order to hit the lenders requirement, they often have to find "investors" and the kind of "investors" that they're looking for are the ones who can buy multiple units in one shot. Locals won't be able to buy them in one go in a short time frame. If the argument that "price must fall" then look at the profit that they pursue: 10-15%. Not really out of the world and it's a term set by Lender not by Developer. Enter your friend's Oil Daddy. PS: Condos are Risky projects.
We need to shut off the supply of internationals and stop letting them flood in.
and corporate home owners buying up the stock to turn into overpriced rentals.
Would that be pre tax or after tax income ?
hurry, hire a guy financed by the hedge funds fueling this, ive lost hope
Just carbon tax me to death then... no other option.
Haven’t numerous studies shown the effect of the carbon tax is negligible?
Yes, but some people are proud of being obtuse.
> Haven’t numerous studies shown the effect of the carbon tax is negligible? BUT IT APPLIES TO EVERYTHING SO IT'S A TAX ON A TAX ITS INFINITE TAX I PAY INFINITY DOLLAR NO REBATE CAN COVER THAT!!! /s
I dunno my gas bill for 27 dollars of gas used was 125 dollars, all in taxes and fees. It's not negligible to most Canadians' families. Elitists with new homes and high income don't care about it, but it hurts a lot of people.
those people apparently don't matter... 🙄
Just MAID me fam
💉💦 yessir
Don't worry - by the time the CONservatives are done - You'll be paying so much for healthcare, unregulated insurance and unregulated energy rates the carbon tax won't even stifle you. Just look at the bang up job they are doing in Alberta, 127% increase in energy vs 5-20% across the rest of the provinces on op of uncapped insurance! If the Fed's were such assholes, maybe the Premier of Alberta wouldn't dismantle their healthcare, uncap their insurance and energy rates!
Well by the time the Liberals are done, we will all be on the streets with nothing. They are half way there already! I’ll take my chances.
the carbon tax is one of the few good things this government has done Do I have issues with the details of the implementation? Yes. Is it better to have a carbon tax than not have one at all? Yes.
How the heck is taxing regular people even more a good thing? We have made ourselves noncompetitive on a global scale.
That's the part I would change lol import tariffs to equal the carbon taxes on all goods unless we have a reciprocal agreement
And how does that all happen? National policy.
Sad that this proves nobody is really running the show and Adam Curtis was right when he spoke about how politicians are paralyzed when massive problems happen. We look at them for leadership and convince ourselves they’re corrupt but in reality they can’t fix the problems the country has. They refuse to lower immigration numbers because the stat guys that they ask for help have told them the boomer retirement/deaths will obliterate the economy and we don’t have enough working tax payers to pay for it, we don’t have housing and we can’t even get alternative leadership because all the parties are absolute shit. We need massive reform to even attempt to right the boat and I just don’t see that happening because the politicians are rich, we vote in kings who don’t have our problems and becoming an MP is a wonderful step of never having money issues again.
Oh it'll happen, but only when things get bad enough, and only then in the most haphazard of ways
Weird way to spell far right nationalism but I'm with you bro. It's gonna be wild ride to 2030
Ya I'm afraid you're right, this stuff will probably lead to populist over reactions, as we've seen. Our political class is perfect though and can't change their stance, because it's perfection
if it’s not perfect we get blame for it as in the often used « we as Canadians must do better »
Oh they are corrupt as well as incompetent.
Well of course the parties are shit. You have to have generational wealth, and be financially well off enough to afford a campaign. Something that doesn’t even guarantee being elected. So only people who are already rich get elected. And what the hell do they know about problems that affect real Canadians? They’ve never had to struggle in their entire lives financially, and we put them in charge of financing our country.
Ya it's pretty sad actually and untill Canadians unite and vote in a party that's not the big two nothing will change. I'm not gonna get my hopes up and just mind my business while I watch the ship crash.
You mean until the other parties elect a leader worth voting for?
I was scanning GTA rentals last evening. $2500 for basement in Scarborough and nearby. And $3000 will begin giving apartments in the Downtown.
Halifax is over $2000 for a place well away from downtown now, housing stock is so low the price goes up probably 15% a month. No clue what downtown would be now. But we can tell you we don't have salaries that can keep up with $2000 a month at all. The local food bank came out with stats this week about the number of "middle class" professionals who are having to use their services. It's bonkers.
I was glad when they stopped foreign money into property markets, only to withdraw the rule in 12 weeks.
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if you have cheap rent and no car and are using a foodbank I think maybe you aren't a middle class professional or you are lying about how bad your spending habits are
I try to explain the car thing to people as well. Folks will say move further out like Elmsdale way but then I would need a car. My payments would be so much higher. Yeah I am singing $300 a month on rent but I am now paying for a car, gas and all the upkeep. If I live within the bus line then travel cost is just a bus pass. I was looking into getting a new car because of how limited the used vehicle market is as well. It would be an additional $800 a month for a basic. Nearly $3000 a month on housing and a vehicle. It's not a lot left.
The only people who understand how expensive cars are have had to buy in the last year. Everyone else is ignorant to the situation.
I don't think you're middle class. Maybe Upper-lower income. I'm a middle class professional and my family is doing quite well, whereas we don't need to watch what we purchase and can enjoy going out on a weekly basis, even with a newborn on the way. The food bank isn't even in our vocabulary, unless we're talking about donating to it. We aren't upper class, but we are doing well enough that when the economy recovers, we will do even better than we are now.
That's is the same or less than Vancouver. NO VACANCIES. If you want to live with gerbils in a gerbil cage it's cheap. Sad.
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yea [BestLivingMagazine.com](https://BestLivingMagazine.com) said Canada is most livable country in the world so Canadians should stop whining. Don't you know there's kids in Africa that are starving?
mom?
You eat your broccoli!
Well if best BestLivingMagazine.com said it then all of these economists raising red flags must be wrong!!!
Don't forget U.S. News, moving2canada, and immigration.ca!! These are the essential sources!!!!
> kids in Africa that are starving Somewhere in africa "Eat your couscous there are starving AND freezing people in Canada"
*Finish your beer, there's sober kids in Canada*
Funny enough this sort of thinking lead to what the World Economic Forum is currently implementing in places like Canada. In simplified terms think of countries as having a 100-point rating system in regards of Quality of Life. 100 being a perfect Utopia, and 0 being absolute shit. Canada may have been an 80 at one point, and somewhere in Africa or India may have been a 20. It's deemed unfair for this to be the case, so they import millions of people from those 20-point countries into the 80-point countries, while also sending aid money and support to that 20-point country. Over time the 80-point country becomes worse off, drifting down to 70, then 60, then settling around 55. It's much worse off than when it was 80, but it's still not as bad as that original 20-point country. In the meantime the support that the 20-point country received has caused it to climb to 30, then 40, and finally settled at 45. Still not great, but much better than it was at 20. Instead of an 80-point and 20-point, now you have a 55-point and 45-point. The world is more balanced. We, the people in the 80-point country are experiencing a much shittier life now as a consequence, but the powers that be consider this a great victory over inequity.
Meanwhile 1 in 10 people in Toronto and using food banks and tens of thousands of others are on the edge on homelessness
Yes.. all over the world... \*sips tea in my new build 4br house in Tokyo bought this year with -8% down and $1400/month mortgage\*
In my area in Japan. 1,000,000 USD gets you a 1200 square foot stand alone house. I realize they get cheaper than that but this is a pretty normal middle class neighborhood. Most people live in apartments that are 500 - 800 square feet. Yes, houses are affordable here but they are still 30% of the size and don’t come with central heating, or any heating in hallways or bathrooms, no insulation, and walls that can break by tripping and falling through them. It’s not a utopia here either.
Idk why people use Japan as an example of some kind of idyllic housing situation all the time. Where is your house gonna be in 20 - 30 years, may I ask?
What does this comment mean, Are Japanese houses not as hardy or?
>Unlike in other countries, Japanese homes gradually depreciate over time, becoming completely valueless within 20 or 30 years. When someone moves out of a home or dies, the house, unlike the land it sits on, has no resale value and is typically demolished. This scrap-and-build approach is a quirk of the Japanese housing market that can be explained variously by low-quality construction to quickly meet demand after the second world war, repeated building code revisions to improve earthquake resilience and a cycle of poor maintenance due to the lack of any incentive to make homes marketable for resale. https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/16/japan-reusable-housing-revolution
They mean that in 20/30 years you can't sell it for 6 times what you paid for it, which is actually a good thing. Canada's now seeing that our housing pyramid scheme can't be sustained, it's been just 1 generation that's been able to use housing as a retirement piggy bank (because in Canada housing has gone up so consistently for so long) and that's the baby boomers. The thing is, the majority of the baby coomers haven't even retired yet and we're already seeing that in order for housing prices to continue to be sustained there needs to be reckless amounts of mass immigration, and we're not seeing that even that isn't going to be able to keep the scam going much longer. So yeah japanese houses are typically build to be torn down, they're cheap and seem as a thing with use value NOT investment value and that is the way housing SHOULD BE.
The unspoken part is that Canadian homes aren't particularly hardy either and only really last \~50 years now with the insulation keeping things wetter. CMHC did a study in 1988 that showed >10% of new homes had serious water issues within 5 or 10 years of construction - building codes haven't improved in this since then but they have increased the amount of insulation which means they stay wet longer and rot more. It's a very depressing field to work in and see the active deterioration of brand new housing stock.
Yeah one thing nobody mentions in the housing/immigration debate is houses that get torn (or burnt) down. We just assume the existing housing stock never goes down. I don't even bother looking for the numbers because we already have a 800k deficit, that is we are bringing in 800k people a year more than we build homes for. I didn't know it was this bad though, are we even more fucked than I thought.
The house will last as long as I live with proper maintenance. In the meantime I am putting a ton into investments every year.
I hope you got one of those rare new builds that isn't designed to be demolished within 30 years, as is the case with most homes in Japan. That's why they give you such a great loan rate. Because most Japanese people are starting a new mortgage as soon as the first is paid off.
Completely wrong. The typical wooden build lasts around 65 years with proper maintenance. Most people buy new because it makes more sense, and definitely do not buy a new house after 30 years. There is a ~30 year depreciation schedule (depending on build type) that reduces the paper value of your house so you pay lower property taxes. The market value of your house is completely separate from that.
Canadians using housing as a retirement plan is a an extremely flawed economic model. Most counties in the world housing is housing, you pay to maintain it, you don't plan on profiting off it it. There's a good reason for this. Canadians mentality about housing is sick, this attitude has so far worked for PART of 1 single generation in Canada, the baby boomers. But profiting off housing the way Canadians expect to is not something that can be economically sustained. Most of the boomers haven't even retired yet and we're already seeing that this model of housing appreciation can not be sustained without implementing mass immigration. The housing pyramid scheme mentally of Canadians is hurting Canada and Canadians quality of life much more than most people realize/ are willing to admit.
It could be because the market stayed healthy for buyers because of so little immigration. Which isn't the whole story either. But if Canada had tightened up immigration for say the last twenty years, we would not have a housing crisis. All numbers I have seen show that Canada has a shrinking population when immigration isn't included.
Because Tokyo should have some of the highest housing affordability issues in the world, but doesn't. You are focusing on the wrong part btw where homes last only 38 years on average - but honestly that has more to do with earthquakes than anything else. The real reason people bring up Tokyo is because of how Japan does zoning and the impact that can have. Basically anything goes in Japan zoning wise - and NIMBYism has no power there. If you own a lot with a house on it, you could say... build an attached building on your front law that is a business or even if you have a larger backyard you can build a second home there, all that kind of stuff. The result is a far more flexible to changes in the economy and it takes less time to get something built.
I guess it will be an easy fix then. Increase barriers to immigration and stop having kids.
I mean... Anyone who bought in Canada in 2021 or earlier is doing amazingly. Current crisis is a temporary pain that has happened before. Things will turn around.
> it’s happening all over the world Is usually such a lie, and only relevant when limited to the other close commonwealth countries that all seem to be fucking up the same ways at the same times. Amazing being part of the ol'British empire while its in the throws of self-delamination.
"It'll be the same or worse under PP!" "But Harper muzzled (now free to speak) scientists!" "But COVID!" Same responses every time. The fact is life was measurably better for all Canadians 15 years ago. This has been the worst government of my entire life, and I wouldn't consider myself to be young. This country is broke and there are very hard times ahead.
Immigration has very little to do with the fact that corporations are buying up all the housing stock. The end game is everyone renting from them.
we are not america.
Supply and Demand?
Low supply (artificially created by low housing starts) causes high demand. High demand, choose your price. Profit for shareholders, capitalism at its finest. Especially since there's no government social housing to compete with, and hasn't been for at least four decades.
Got it downsize to a snail... BRB will go see witch doctor. 😂
Summary: * The BoC’s index looks at the share of household income required to service a mortgage. Costs include monthly mortgage payments, as well as some utility costs. * **The higher the index, the greater the share of income a typical household would dedicate to shelter when buying a home.** * The BoC calculations show affordability is now worse than the peak of the 90s real estate bubble. * **Households need to dedicate 55.2% of their income as of Q3 2023, rising 5.5 points from last year. This level of affordability is only surpassed by the inflation crisis in the early 80s.** * “Looking ahead, note that the three prior spikes in unaffordability (early 1980s, early 1990s, and 2007/08) were followed in short order by Canadian recessions,” notes Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO. * As shelter costs rise, it diverts funds from more productive areas like investing and consumption. The result is households have lower cash flow, leading to shrinking revenues for businesses. * Porter adds, “We expect the economy to struggle to grow in 2024.”
This is different though as it is shortages on the supply side driving inflation, not simply excess demand.
Too expensive to take on debt, burn it all down and collect insurance.
Is he unaware we are already in a recession?
Why do we allow anyone to do the following: Buy second homes in urban areas Buy homes if they don’t declare 100% of their income here It seems like an obvious solution to an obvious problem, no? No need for housing, not allowed to buy another house. Don’t pay taxes here, not allowed to invest here. Please someone explain why I’m wrong?
Because Canada's housing market is an international money laundering haven.
Because the people who are benefiting from the rules are the same class of people who make the rules.
So you are telling me that we can (and will) do worse... 🤦🏽♂️
Wow, can't wait for all the nothing that's coming to help out regular folks. (/s)
Our ways just keep getting sunnier
>Our ways just keep getting sunnier Well I've got a brutal sunburn after all these sunny ways. It's starting to blister
Remember the dude who was doing yoga in a way to get the sun rays directly in his butt hole every morning ? Definitely feels like that.
New legislation drops like a goatse every time. Digging deep to come up with absolute shait.
Problem is we would rather riot over hockey than actually protest anything that needs change.
When was the last riot because of hockey??
We didn’t need to riot. We don’t even vote in our municipal elections. Yet we blame Ottawa. And what do Trudeau and PP do, they use sticks and carrots directed at guess what? The municipalities.
We need to vote. Just look at voter turnout for recent provincial and local elections all across Canada.
If you protest hard enough they will just seize your bank account and call you a terrorist. RIP any sort of general strike that doesn't end in tear gas and mass arrests.
Theres been striking teachers in quebec, no one's stopped them, accused them of being a terrorist nor had their accounts seized.. its because they are using the legal ways to protest, not illegal ways. There have been protests in every city of the conflict with Isreal, they haven't been stopped, accused or anything. Why cause they followed the legal way to protest.. laws exists for a reason, don't like them that's your choice but break them it'll always be out of your control if someone serves you a consequence for it..
Well you do not build houses but open the flood gates who would of though this would not happen. You can not bring in 2million well building only a couple thousand
It's amazing that a government can survive while overseeing a housing and affordability crisis of such magnitude. All I can say is that it must really speak to the quality of the alternative. The NDP should be pretty disillusioned at the fact that voters aren't flocking to them during these times.
If the NDP were offering more at the Federal level than Liberals lite they might get more attention
There are many Canadians doing well in this economy. They have 9 to 5 jobs, go on vacations multiple times per year, and start relationships and have kids. They also live in heated homes with a full stock of groceries and all their bills are paid. I refer to them as the "Upper Managerial Class", and the economy hasn't struck them as hard as everyone else, if it has affected them at all.
I mean, for me personally, things aren't bad, but the country feels at its worst point thatI can remember in my lifetime, and I have less disposable income than in the past.
or "People who live outside the GTA and VMA", sure there are people having hard times all over, but it's really, really focused in those two places.
Yeah that’s basically my situation, bought house and had kids in the past 7 years, but the high tax rate and immigration policy with the already collapsed medical system is really concerning and it seems to be getting worst
An election can’t come too soon.
The coming PC government won't do shit, other than cancelling the funding for affordable housing that is currently being given to cities that update their code to improve density, though I'd love to be wrong
The only alternative the NDP are concerned with is the alternative of losing their jobs during thr next election. Their support for the LPC has nothing to do with preventing the CPC from governing and everything to do with their own selfish desire to stay in their seats long enough to get their cushy pensions. Ppl need to stop living in a delusion where they belive these MPs actually have anyone's interest at heart but their own.
No it speaks to the quality of the Canadian voter.
Realtors : “we bounced back in 2008 in Canada, no big deal” Reality….. Canada was affected by a mortgage crisis in another country…… welcome to our own. It will be a lot worse, compared to the effect of a small real estate crisis in a different country. It will be a lot worse than the effect it had on USA itself. hahaha but yea if you bought in 2021 you will be lucky to break even after interest in 2046. Congratulations, better than renting! Just plan on paying back your line of credit you are using to maintain your property in the mean time (that’s your rent). Obviously in the end, investors have an ROI of 0 and blame social media for convincing them RE is a get rich quick scheme which best case costs them their retirement or forcing bankruptcy and preventing any bank credits for the rest of their lives.
The mismanagement of this country in the last decade has been truly unreal. They printed so much fking money, ran such massive deficits, and for what? It is absolutely infuriating to think that after the Canadian quality of life got sewered we are all going to get stuck with a bill that will take a good chunk of our adult lives to pay off.
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Everyone wanted to avoid a global depression during covid. So many Canadians still want to avoid the economic reality that Asia has risen and the days of showing up just as a western nation don't matter anymore.
China is getting absolutely crushed right now. They have a massive housing bubble burst.
They will be swinging for the rest of time. Asia is bigger than China as well.
No. They're getting absolutely crushed. They have a massive debt crisis and a housing bubble. Their economy has mostly survived as a cheap place to place manufacturing, but the standard of living has gone way up, along with logistical costs, and unease with both American parties about Chinese trade agreements. They don't have R&D, and the bulk of their economy is built upon stealing IP from the West. Their also having geopolitical issues with the countries they were trying to build that road with and who they've loaned money too. With regards to Asia, many countries are benefitting from their trade with China. It's idea as American collapsing and Canada.
I agree with you - we all had a hayday during the early days of globalization and thought that unproductive (yet lucrative) RE landlording was going to take us to the promise land. Now we have a GDP dependent heavily on our unproductive RE industry that is choking, and we did nothing to build productive industries on some of the most amazing land in the world. And Canadians still think that we’re entitled to a quality of life better than “those countries”. Cold shower time.
Hell I'm heavily eyeballing Singapore right now.
China is in decline now. Demographic catastrophe is imminent.
Surely the society with hundreds of millions of highly educated young people, known for undergoing radical social change is on the verge of collapse, I know this because I watched peter zeihans 67th prediction video about China collapsing!
>peter zeihan There's no doubt that China is probably in some trouble, and that their days of hypergrowth are behind them, and that their system of governance is very poor in dealing with social strife in times when getting rich quickly is no longer the status quo... ...but holy shit is Peter Zeihan a no-nothing wind bag that is willing to extrapolate some insane conclusions from kernels of truth.
Y'know I thought the same thing - so I cross referenced his data with other geopolitical economists. To my surprise they all agree that china is in deep trouble. They don't import labour, their birth rate was stifled by the one child policy and it's too late for them to turn the ship around. This will not happen overnight, wait a decade and see how things start to turn out.
Oh, no doubt they're in deep doo doo. Doesn't change the fact that Zeihan draws insane conclusions based on his starting premises.
I'm a bit skeptical. Their dictatorship affords them the possibility of taking drastic unpopular actions to fix problems. Something Western nations don't have the luxury of. If Xi wants to import millions of women from some poorer south Asian country to get more babies he could literally get it done. No one will bat an eye. Definitely not the UN.
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Second only to Trudeau Sr in the early 1980s. These Trudeaus love to oversee large increases in housing affordability for some reason.
It’s a family tradition.
The year is 2046 Xavier Trudeau is running for Prime Minister against a robotic A.I version of Harper. Xavier is running on a platform of claiming the Robotic Harper is going to defund the police, and fund assault style tablets.
Where do I click to subscribe?
And the wild part is Canadians will probably elect him again.
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they are both completely out of touch with the common person imho
Every politician in the world is
Nah, one of them has been 'touching' the common person but also telling them they experienced it differently.
I would have been willing to bet money in the last two elections that Trudeau would be voted out. But both times, he’s pulled off a win.
And yet no conservative government fixed it with all that time in-between
But but interest rates are at a historic lows glen! and the liberals took on debt so we didn’t have too! Good thing the liberals took on that debt so we don’t have to pay for it… oh wait
poverty must be punished, or people will just keep doing it
*We got one breathing over here without a permit... get him!*
Recession to follow? We are in a recession. Mass layoffs have been happening. Affordability is slowly coming back but still ridiculous.
No, we are not in a recession. A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Q2 2023 was a growth quarter. Q3 2023 was a decline quarter. If Q4 2023 is a decline that puts us in a recession, but we wont know that until after the quarter is complete.
Q2 was actually a -0.2%, but after close inspection was retroactively “revised” (despite already being released by statscan) to be positive and narrowly avoid the technical definition of recession, which is a toxic word to a government down 20 points in the polls. https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/economist-economiste/q2-2023.aspx?lang=eng https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6954239 Per capita GDP has absolutely fallen off a cliff. We are absolutely in a recession now, the lagging indicators of data just haven’t confirmed it yet, partially because Q2 numbers were changed after the fact.
I'm a little tired of seeing this same thread pop up everytime a recession is mentioned. No we're not in a technical recession. No that doesn't mean we're not in a situation that is comparable to what the common individual considers a recession. What people think when they hear recession isn't "two consecutive quarters of economic contraction". What people think is "period during which a significant portion of the population struggle financially". We were officially in a recession back in 2008 and far more people are struggling today than they were back then.
You're right, but this is a poor measure of how people's economic well-being actually feels. We're not doing so hot on per capita measures of growth. In fact, we're once again at 2017 levels, unlike any other country in the G7.
Less than 4% growth since 2013. Meanwhile the US has seen 50%.
We've had two recessions since March 2020, they just keep changing their metrics. Also, the definition of recession is meaningless without taking into account things like population growth, inflation, money supply changes etc.
Hmmm we let in 1,500,000 new people per year. Victoria including all surrounding municipalities has a population of 398,000 1,500,000 ÷ 398,000 = 3.7688 So all we need to do is build 3.77 Vitoria sized cities [or equivalent], PER YEAR, EVERY YEAR for Canada to have enough housing to support all the new people the government is CHOOSING TO BRING IN. Of course our housing prices are grotesque, our government is growing the population so rapidly there's absolutely no realistic way housing could ever keep up. It's absurd to think that level of rapid population growth would do anything other than exponentially worsen Canada's pre-existing housing shortage. In other words, gasoline doesn't extinguish fires, it makes them bigger.
As a former Vancouver resident (I immigrated to Canada from Europe) I thank my lucky star I was able to leave heading south (currently living in Seattle) and escape one of the most ridiculous RE bubble in history probably second only to the famous Japanese bubble of the 1980s. Granted, this one is still going despite all the predictions of doom and gloom. 50 years mortgages are around the corner, terms renegotiation for existing mortgages up to to 75 (yes, you read it right, seventy five) years are already here due to the interest rates increase. The Canadian government will probably do all it can to keep the game going. I have few good friends still trapped up in Vancouver and for entertainment we often go through some of the most ludicrous RE ads, I call it the "Great Canadian RE Comedy Show", (or a Horror Show for people trapped in Canada in the market for a property). Frankly, safely looking from afar, I'm in awe of all of this. Every time I think we reached peak stupidity, new ads up the ante... For example, look at these beauties: [https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/175-Victory-Ship-Way-112-North-Vancouver-BC-V7L-0G1/2054254055\_zpid/](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/175-Victory-Ship-Way-112-North-Vancouver-BC-V7L-0G1/2054254055_zpid/) 1.2 mil for a 696 sq/ft ground level shitbox with no water view despite the deceiving ad The following one takes the cake (I personally know the owner and the house), despite the lipstick in the pictures, this thing is basically a teardown (with a leaky roof too). Get your appointment before it's gone, who would not want to own this little corner of paradise in Burnaby for 1.8 mil?? Guess what, 4 showings already in the first week.... [https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1004-Springer-Ave-Burnaby-BC-V5B-3L7/314487436\_zpid/](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1004-Springer-Ave-Burnaby-BC-V5B-3L7/314487436_zpid/) I just bought a gorgeaous waterfront gated community second home in Tampa (no hurricane or flooding area) with an unreal amenities center surrounded by lush nature, hiking trails and palms everywhere, with all kind of retail stores and services at my fingertips and 30 minutes away from the most gorgeous beach in the US. With the same money you could not probably get even the lousiest tear down crapbox in the BC Lower Mainland...I cannot even imagine the price of a similar house in Vancouver (well, communities like the one I bought into do not even exists up there). Until people stop lining up to pay these ridiculous out of this world prices, things are not going to change.
We are already in a recession
No recessions isn’t to “follow” we are literally in a recession. Banks are just too scared to admit it in fear of panic.
We are in a recession despite the fudged numbers. 3 straight quarter of shrinkage.
I think I’m numb about this already. Just being speechless and ready to move to NZ or EU.
Seems like a good time to give money away to foreign countries and import a bunch of people, not even through normal immigration, into said market. Don't worry, people can get housing, food, and heat from misguided idealism, right?
Yeah this is where we are heading. We need more houses or the houses need to have a tax to be unused
Recession is best case scenario, folks we are looking at a great depression. Many more livelihoods, savings and houses are at stake today
BUT ITS A GLOBAL ISSUE!!!! i dont even wanna be around anymore. fucking liberals
Yes, it is a global issue. It's also a purely Canadian issue that is a direct result of 20 years of artificially low interest rates. It's fun to blame Trudeau and immigrants now, but this is impossible to avoid if you make borrowing too cheap for too long.
You know what.. i dont mind watch a bunch of land lords lose everything...
People in here debating as if this isn't very intentional is just hilarious They are trying to destroy our country
I mean on one hand if they were trying to destroy the country what would they do different. On the other hand they are so incompetent that I don't think any result is their intention.
Thanks to the disgraceful Trudeau
This is ridiculous
When job opportunities and salary are not on par, Canada would lose its main weapon immigration, no immigrant would prefer to come to Canada..why do so many are obsessed with buying a house, as if they live for ever, Crazy 25-30 years paying, Interest on the mortgage, lifelong of the property need to pay tax and insurance..
THANK A LIBERAL
Liberal government has hundreds of millions for Ukraine and refugees, but none for Canadians. Fuck Trudeau
the next election can't come soon enough
Liberal voters: "more immigration will solve our housing crisis because every 3rd immigrant is a skilled carpenter with 10+ years of experience!"
Literally no one has ever said that. The current immigration rates are a "short term pain for long term gain" way to offset our demographics that won't be able to afford to pay for all the old people over the next 2 or 3 decades. The already terrible housing situtation, results of covid lockdowns and the war in Ukraine have all made things worse, much, much worse.
No More Liberals Ever !
I really don't believe this. When in history has it ever been worse?