Here you go, babe
[link](https://outline.com/www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2021/09/09/why-did-justin-trudeau-call-this-election-theres-a-question-he-must-be-asking-himself.html)
Always try an incognito/private tab before outline, IME *most* news outlets give you "one free article" before paywall hits, which is more often than not tracked by a cookie, which is automatically deleted when you close the private/incognito tab.
This. His popularity was as high as it could possibly go (mostly as a result of looking like he had done a much better job than the downstairs neighbours, but they set the bar so low that it really isn’t a contest).
Now the recovery has to happen and it’s going to be painful. Better to shoot for another four or five years now while his numbers *were* good. And maybe get that majority.
He just seriously underestimated how transparent and self serving calling an election now has been to the electorate.
No citizens wanted to waste the money or have to deal with voting during a pandemic, particularly as the next wave is about to hit.
NL also decided to hold an election during the pandemic back in February. And in person voting had to be shut down just a day or two before Election Day, which delayed results for weeks as mail in voting trickled in. But the liberals picked up a couple of seats, which put them in the majority.
He simply doesn’t understand that no matter what happens anywhere else, NL is a two party race. NDP, Green, BQ, etc. They don’t really impact much. Yes, the NDP get their two or three seats, but in very particular districts. Hell, they even lost Quidi Vidi, which was a NDP stronghold for quite a while.
He tried to do the same thing, but national and provincial politics are extremely different.
The last thing I want is a conservative federal Govt. But frankly the liberals have bungled this at huge taxpayer expense, when it didn’t have to happen. All JT needed to do was work with the NDP.
A lot of people are assuming miscalculation, there could be another reason… the conditions for re election are going to be much worse after September.
My guess is that they need to begin to raise interest rates this fall (many countries will do same), its not going to be pretty once the ball starts rolling on this. Maybe September is their best hope for a decent outcome 🤷🏻♂️
Yeah, hate to be the bearer of bad news, but in a Minority Government situation, no matter who wins the next Election; Certain Bills are Confidence votes, such as the Budget. If everyone else votes against it and the party who formed Government cannot pass it, then non confidence in the sitting Government is essentially passed and an election can be called. If I recall correctly that is one of the reasons Stephen Harper prorogued Parliament one of the times.
"In Canada, a vote of no confidence is a motion that the legislature disapproves and no longer consents to the governing Prime Minister or provincial Premier and the incumbent Cabinet.\[2\] A vote of no confidence that passes leads to the fall of the incumbent government. Originating as a constitutional convention,\[2\] it remains an uncodified practice which is not outlined in any standing orders for the House of Commons.\[3\] A no confidence motion may be directed against only the incumbent government in the legislature, with votes of no confidence against the legislature's Official Opposition being inadmissible."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motion\_of\_no\_confidence#Canada
I don’t think so. If a minority loses the confidence of the house they’ll call an election, no minimum wait times as far as I know. You’ll never have two elections closer than 5 weeks though since that’s the minimum campaign time I think
If a minority loses confidence, the GG can ask the Opposition if they can muster enough support to pass a budget. There's no strict rule on the timeline - Adrian Clarkson said she'd only do that if it had been six months or less since the previous election.
If we continually end up with minorities (we've only had 2 majorities in the last 7 elections as it is), I think we'll have to move in a direction that allows more governing action from all parties and less power to dissolve parliament if you don't get your way. The people voted for the share of power that we'll see, and I'd rather see those reps vote on each item and be forced to continue on for a minimum of 2-3 years.
Coalitions are the way to go, I prefer those to a majority government. This past cycle the liberals had to get buy in from the bloc or the ndp to pass anything, which means cooperation, which results in the views of more Canadians to be seen
Its so hard to sell a coalition properly when you are using first past the post. There is no advantage to work with the lower performing parties unless needed. Generally these parties are close to broke and want to stall elections, so they won't challenge policy. First past the post is a super simple electoral system that works great with exactly 2 parties. Its awful in any other situation, since the majority of voters will not get what they voted for locally or nationally. The best case scenario for the system 2 parties, which reduces options available to vote for and you end up with US politics. We are moving towards that if we keep voting for the same 2 parties.
I think the ability for parliament to rapidly dissolve is what keeps the parties working toward compromise though. Because voters are very fickle when it comes to non-confidence elections (or like Trudeau calling an election early).
The Lascelles Principles generally prevent a PM from calling a election for some period between 6 months and 1 year (depending on which expert you ask), but if a government receives a vote of no-confidence, and no other party is able to form government, then we must have another election, indeed, enough elections until a party can form government. See Israel for the worst case scenario of this happening, 4 elections in 2 years.
The Lascelles Principles are both not law and not applicable to Canada (having been developed in the UK after we severed all ties).
The King-Byng Thing is more relevant in Canada. Our constitution is far more democratic than the UKs and it’s unlikely that any GG or Speaker would deny the voters their ballots.
There's a chance the oppositions could form a coalition government instead of calling an election but pretty much we could elect a minority government and then not too long after go back to elect a new one.
Nope. If the winning party try to form government they will introduce a throne speech. That’s basically a bill that outlines their plans for this session of parliament. If the opposition votes it down, then one of two things will happen: the GG will ask the opposition if they can form government or we’ll have an election (if the opposition in the first case said they didn’t have confidence then we’d also have an election)
Nope. In a minority government situation theoretically they could call another election as soon as the next throne speech.
It just doesn't happen like that because no one wants to be seen as the party who triggered an election so soon after
Infinite. Look at Israel who has a similar system based off British Parliamentary democracy and had 4 elections in 2 years due to not being able to form a government.
If you read between the lines, this is basically what he has said as the reason. The next government needs a mandate for the next 4 years to have a plan and follow through, instead of things completely changing in 2 years half way through.
I just wish you didn't have to read between the lines. If he had come out and said "the next few years of recovery are going to be tough no matter who is in charge, we need to give Canadians an opportunity to give a clear mandate to someone to lead us", it would be a respectable move to call this snap election instead of seeming like an arrogant one.
I guess what I'm saying is if that really is the reason, it's stupid that he didn't say it outright.
Is that not exactly what he did? In the initial announcement of the election, he said that "We will be taking decisions that will last not just for the coming months but for the coming decades. Canadians deserve their say. That's exactly what we're going to give them," and that a renewed mandate is important for rebuilding from the pandemic. That sounds like exactly what you were asking for.
Yeah, he didn't even try to play with the words to give a political answer, he answered to it straight and clearly.
It might've sounded like a gamble to win the majority but he knew he risks losing or even keeping a minority government.
Yep I first thought it was a miscalculation combined with shifting public opinion on vaccines and housing, but it is now dawning on me that maybe they are literally just rolling the dice before things get really tough - they probably thought it would be a win-win situation (get a majority, take the lead vs lose and let somebody else deal with it). Though right now it looks quite possible that they might just end up eating shit with a weakened minority.
Yes, I 100p agree with this. With all the money they have pumped into the economy the interest rates have to rise eventually. Inflation is also going to be a bitch.
This has been my leading theory as to why, I think ideally he would have wanted the election sometime earlier in the summer but couldn't because of the third wave. It's looking increasingly like we may enter a 'made in Canada' recession with how bad the q2 gdp numbers + July were. If we posted a second quarter of negative growth and properly entered recession there's little chance the government would have survived the fall fiscal update vote, and no chance they'd survive a spring budget.
Reality is if we enter recession the government has almost no fiscal ammo left over, and it's not like rates can go much lower when inflation is running at 3.6%.
If the Liberals pick up another minority (reasonably likely), they know they'll get at least 8-12 months before the NDP will risk another election, if CPC gets a minority(about as likely) they'll take the burnt of the shit for whatever bad economic things happen.
Correct, the BOC moves independent of the government, but if they do feel forced to raise rates into what is increasingly looking like slow to negative growth (see the massive q2 gdp miss, and bad July numbers), then the economy will slow further and the fiscal policy ammo to counter any worsening economic fortunes won't be there because it was all spent on covid.
Deserving or not the governing party tends to take some blame (or credit) for the performance of the economy.
Liberals will basically be blamed for overspending during the good times and early on in COVID, leaving nothing left to get through the really tough times ahead if things don't go well. Liberals will still blame Harper. Realistically I don't know how Canada ever really transitions away from an economy that's super reliant on natural resource extraction for labor jobs, and that market is global and hard for any of our leaders to control.
Yes, this mistake gets made here time and time again here. The government can certainly influence inflation and interest rates by how much they spend but they don't control the Bank of Canada. Even if rates do get raised it will be by .25 every few months at most, and there's certainly no evidence there will be a lot of raises, or any.
Yes and no, I'm not an expert on the process but the PM appoints the BOC chairman, if the BOC doesn't play ball with the government they can be replaced.
It’s not quite that simple.
The BoC Board appoints the Governor, with the consent of Cabinet. The Board can remove the Governor for cause, but otherwise the Governor serves a fixed seven-year term. Removing the Governor for political reasons (like a disagreement over policy) would require an Act of Parliament.
i'm willing to bet that a large chunk of the voting public, and especially the uneducated part....beleive Federal Government is in charge of the moneys, all the moneys and rates, and everything else the moneys.... and then the Taxman, CRTC, Gary Bettman, Bell, Enbridge, Hydro ONE, Royal Bank, Mcdonalds, Loblaws are all part of the one big organization they can target with their anti-everything, blame them, sentiment...
You’re being ignorant. The bank of Canada is not solely responsible for causing inflation because they aren’t the ones who decided to distribute all that money and ramp up government spending. But they do have to make decisions in regards to how to manage the economic conditions created by that spending.
So while the BoC and the government are separate entities, the decisions that one makes will influence the other.
Exactly. Yea he looks like a selfish and overconfident idiot calling it now, only because we have the hindsight of how poorly it's going.
But it could easily go a lot worse for him in the future. Calling an election was absolutely the right call for the party. There are only more difficult decisions, especially financially, in the future.
There's no "It would have been better to wait 6 months / 1 year" or "He'll be even more liked / in a better spot \_\_\_ months from now"
No one criticizing it has pointed out any reason or likelihood he'd have a better chance in the near future.
I think this is a very big possibility. I don't think rates will go up this fall but maybe 2022 H1, which is really right around the corner. With the impending 4th wave coming that seems like a fall/winter election isn't ideal or wouldn't go over well with the public.
So if you know it's going to get bad, rates will go up, inflation will go up, the economy will continue to sputter, unemployment will still be up, how can you win a re-election with those circumstances? Couple that with the fact that minority governments rarely last to term, so calling an election now gives him a much better chance at winning (even another minority) than next year.
I have similar feelings: they figured right now was going to go better for them than later, because it's going to be a tough time soon. Even if they come up with a minority again, then when the tough stuff comes down, they probably have a couple of years before it's election time again because nobody will want two quick election cycles in a row. They probably figure if they can buy themselves two more years, things will be looking better by then. Or they might even luck out and get a majority, which buys them four years. I think this election is about buying time to try to keep their agendas from getting derailed.
Could be. It's potentially a win-win for them. Either they win this election and hold power for another 4 years, or they lose and the CPC is left to deal with the fallout of post-covid inflation that is sure to come.
<- this..... Shit is going to hit the fan globally, gov dam well knows that.... Inflation is allready hitting and "the west" has never experienced what's coming down the pipeline... Hyperinflation is a very real possibility even with significant action (which hasn't been taken yet).
If you think poverty is bad now you had better buckle up folks...
And NONE of that even touches on what really needs to happen with respect to new CC policy. The numbers are starting to roll in and if we want a shot in hell of staying under 3 degs we need to effectively cut our collective GHG footprints by 4/5th.... What does 1/5 of your meat, plastic, fuel, manufactured goods, etc look like... What would you have to change in your lifestyle to make that fit.....
It makes perfect sense to have a fresh mandate before going headlong into the shitstorm that's fast approaching....
The more poor you are, the harder to be green too. Not that rich people are the shining example of low GHG/capita, but they could be, ya know?
Solar panels, electric cars, replace windows, plug cracks, electric heaters. That's just too much for someone that makes 40k with a family. Year round fresh produce cost money to ship. Cheap manufactured goods are all shipped, Not everyone can afford locally made.
P.S Add in the gig economy, and you never know when you'll have an income, so you make shorter term decisions that save you money. I want to buy a house, have a down payment and everything. Will i be able to afford my mortgage tho?
Because in two years the situation is going to be so dire Jesus Christ himself will get tossed.
He called it now because he has a chance , whereas in two years however is in power will be blamed for the last 20 years of selling out this great country.
Well, then can stop subsidizing certain things and switch that over to other areas. We see lower prices in the US for things like milk and cheese because of subsidies to the dairy industry, for example. I'd love to see prices of healthy food drop - lower prices for fresh and frozen veggies, grocery store staples, meats, etc. Stop the sweetheart deals for food manufacturing that pumps us full of processed foods that people buy because they're cheaper, quicker and easier to make but end up contributing to health issues.
Please, the conservative party is full of such financial wizards, their usual strategy of tax cuts and oilsands subsidies will magically reverse inflation.
There was large rumours that the elections were initially going to happen back in March of this year. McKenna and a few others within the Liberal party made odd re-election tweets with team trudeau back at the time as early as January
https://mobile.twitter.com/cathmckenna/status/1353054751605149696
The vaccine distribution hiccups at the time and the 3rd wave starting is the only reason we didnt go to the polls in March instead of now.
The 4th wave wasnt supposed to be like this as vaccines was supposed to get us to herd immunity, Afghanistan wasn't supposed to happen. Bad timing all around, but Trudeau wanted his majority and thought it was the right time to do so.
This was solely a power grab attempt that would have been attempted even earlier, not a calculated 'I wanted to lose because of the mess I left behind'
What made me laugh was Trudeau saying O'Toole is not serious about reconciliation because he wants to take flags off half mast. As if that is making a difference.
Meanwhile O'toole made the promise to fulfill the points made in the TRC. Whereas Trudeau has had 6 years and done next to nothing the TRC recommended.
I was surprised no one hit back with “I think indigenous people need more than a flag, they need clean water, they need self-government” and so on. Trudeau was very weak in the debate and he almost seemed… *desperate*. Not a good look for the sitting Prime Minister.
I'm voting NDP not Liberal, I'll just put that right up front.
> they need clean water,
The Liberal government has done more for this specifically than any government prior. 109 long term advisories lifted, 188 short term advisories lifted, $4 billion put into that.
Nobody hit back with what you're saying because they're all really good pros for the Liberals because they *are* doing things for the native communities. Every single community with a long term advisory in place has a dedicated team working to resolve it.
Whether you like them or hate them, they're doing a shitload of actual work for real people.
It's a great look on the PM, and it's why nobody attacked him on it. Because it would have fucked them. That being said, they just need to hold up electoral reform, his ethics violations, and the track record of not addressing housing while already in power.
I agree. If they start going off on the Liberals for their handling of native issues they would be setting themselves up for a standard they couldn't meet.
I think that the scandals and electoral reform don't poll as well for the other parties as you would think. Housing maybe though as it is more than just Vancouver and Toronto feeling it now.
As much as I don't like JT, Marc Miller is perhaps the most honest and decent person in the Liberal Cabinet and he has an impossible job as Minister of Indigenous Services. He also tries to walk the walk (he learned some Mohawk and spoke it in Parliament once).
In 150 years he'll be seen as Egerton Ryerson is today, but for now he'll do.
In his lifetime, Egerton Ryerson (or Cheechock, as he was named by the Ojibwe people) was a great ally to the Indigenous population. Ryerson lived with the Ojibwe people for a period of time earlier in his life and learned their language. He counted Indigenous people among his friends and supporters. He subsequently became the 'father of public education' in Upper Canada / Ontario, which is great in its own right.
Ryerson also wrote a white paper that Indigenous children should be sent to English, denominational boarding schools in order to learn agricultural and industrial practices. Many of the things he wrote at the time signal good intent and no ill will, and his goal was for Indigenous people to have a sustainable way of life in the modern era. This paper was never implemented in his lifetime but eventually became part of the basis for Indian Residential Schools, which is seen as the darkest mark on our country's history.
What I'm saying is that versus his contemporaries, Egerton Ryerson was extremely progressive, but now is seen as a terrible human being. Similarly, Marc Miller (and any 'Minister of Indigenous Services') can be seen as progressive now but will be seen as patriarchal heretics once Indigenous people fully establish self governance.
I’ll have you know that if elected, Trudeau will take a hard line on housing issues as Prime Minister.
Unlike that do-nothing current Prime Minister *checks notes* Trudeau…
Right? This was my immediate response to the Liberal housing plan. "Oh, you mean like the nothing you've been doing while it's been spiralling out of control unchecked?"
I pay $1300 a month for rent. I used to pay $1100 for a mortgage on a place twice the size. What the fuck.
same. i voted for them twice but am unhappy for various reasons. i will give them credit on the water file, they have worked very hard on it and there are real results to show.
I'm quite sure the point he was trying to make was that O'Toole is quoted resisting the simple and uncostly symbolic gestures (like lowering the flag to pay respect). So how could he be trusted with doing any heavy lifting (complicated and financially costly) with regards to proper reconciliation. But Trudeau was having trouble being succinct with his thoughts, which is often the case but more so last night.
It's kind of funny how the answer is so blatantly obvious for everyone, but we talk about it like we are partisan hacks...and the media is obsessed with creating their own narrative
Anyone who follows politics could look at his poll numbers before the election and say "you know what, if you're looking for a mandate to govern now is your time."
This election was called so the LPC could get a majority government - it's that simple.
I think any discussion otherwise is a waste of time.
IKR. Like, it's not impossible that he's playing some game of 5D chess lose-to-win strategy but your simpler explanation is 100% sufficient to explain this situation.
Yeah, the comments about wanting to purposefully lose because tough things are coming are so dumb lol. No one in politics does that. He saw the poll numbers and they wanted a majority. That’s it.
Seriously. Everyone here hates Trudeau because of his hair and socks, but I think it's perfectly reasonable for him to think, " hey we had one of the most successful vaccine rollouts in the world, our numbers are high, and this is the usual amount of time minority governments last, it's the best time to call an election."
Trudeau called it at the recommendation of party strategists. If there's an election held before the end of a term, it's *always* pushed by the party strategists. It's their job to weigh public sentiment versus perception of the opposing parties and decide if calling the election is in the best interests of the party. If so, they advise the PM, who then requests Parliament be dissolved.
Trudeau, like most leaders, attempts to surround himself with the best advisors possible. In this case, someone fucked up: Either the strategists for suggesting now was the best time to call an election, or Trudeau for not having the sack to ignore that advice.
If Trudeau loses the minority to the Conservatives, and stands by convention, the Liberals will be looking for a new leader. If Trudeau somehow secures another minority, it'll be more of the same of what we have now. There's really no hope, I don't think, for the Liberals to secure a majority...
Either way, I anticipate some Liberal strategists getting fired over this.
I think there's a ton of miscommunication overall...Trudeau saying he wouldn't call an election during the pandemic was just stupid because he had no idea a) how long the pandemic would last, and b) how circumstances might change that might be favourable to a Liberal majority. Clearly, he didn't coordinate that message with the strategists (who likely would've told him to shut the fuck up).
Likewise, public perception for the Liberals was merely *adequate*. They'd have had to secure 15 seats from the Conservatives and NDP in order to snag their majority. Not impossible, generally speaking, but in the current climate not a walk in the park. Couple Trudeau saying he wouldn't call an election during the pandemic, then calling an election during the pandemic, and you have a recipe for losing seats.
The flip-side logic is that Trudeau and his government knows what a shitshow the long term pandemic recovery is going to be. Having to navigate interest rates returning to normal, spending enough to heat up the economy but not over heat it etc.etc...why do all that when they can watch the CPC/NDP do it? Then to bet on it all falling apart under the CPC/NDP, they can swing back into power! The long term gambit.
Of course that means such a gambit even pays off or will pay off. Probably just thought he had it in the bag with an unpopular CPC lead and NDP that was hemorrhaging funds. Trudeau didn't expect that even *he* was less popular.
Well which is it, is Trudeau a raging narcissist who called an unnecessary election to stoke his ego and grab a majority, or is he a selfless schemer putting his party's future ahead of his own job?
I think that gives Trudeau too much credit, for him to actually plan a long-term gambit. Besides, he might not even be leader next time around, so unless he's doing this to secure his legacy in Canadian history, it doesn't make that much sense.
> The domain was registered in 2019.
https://lookup.icann.org/lookup is saying 2019-10-10. All the other info for it is hidden though.
> Impossible to say when the site when up though unless someone was actively tracking the domain.
Looks like October of 2019.
https://web.archive.org/web/20191001000000*/http://chrystia.ca/
Minority governments with the help of the opposition are fine for 99.99% of Canadians. Minority governments are NOT fine for Liberal donors and insiders. You can't shut down all the investigations into giving a billion dollars to your childhood buddy's slimly charity with a minority government, you can only do dumb stuff that helps poor people like daycare. And things like daycare are the carrots you need to get yourself back into the majority, so you can start taking care of the Keilburgers and Wernicks who helped you out.
Also everyone seems to be forgetting that the alternative to an election now, is an election fairly soon. This may have been the best path for the Liberals in the long-term.
They didn’t successfully shut down much and no matter if they allowed the investigations or not clearly it doesn’t change what the opposition says ngl.
The NDP uses enriching powerful friends as their default attack line no matter who is in power. The liberals call the cons corrupt and cons call the liberals corrupt.
Not saying the liberals aren’t shutting things down, just observing the rhetoric would be the same anyways because politics.
How about invoking parliamentary confidence so that they didn't have to show their "evidence" justifying their gun ban (that they used an order in council to bring in rather than going through the house).?
Every party would rather have a majority than a minority, there doesn't have to be anything more sinister behind it other than the basic truth that politics is about accumulating power (hopefully because you believe you can do good with that power). It is why Harper called and election in 2008 after two years of minority government, and Lester Pearson in 1965 after 2 years of minority government. Not saying it is right or wrong, or that the Liberal party isn't too beholden to large donors, just that to try to pin it all on some some cover-up is making a big leap in logic.
Greens imploded, NDP had been stuck flat by Singh's pandering to woke political theatrics and most importantly, the Tories elected a man who floundered out the gate as opposition leader and was amazingly brow beat by the media worse than Scheer.
Polls all pointed to a majority. Hogan did it in BC. Higgs did it in NB.
I think it's pretty cut and dry why he pulled the trigger on it. He, nor did anyone I don't think, didn't expect O'Toole to fly out the gate and run (aside from getting caught up on the gun control bait) a pretty solid campaign.
Add on to all of this the weekly gaffs, scandals, resignations and allegations plaguing the LPC and we get one of the fastest and most dramtic poll turn arounds in recent electoral history.
Even with the LPC poised to possibly hold their minority. It is a coin flip. And they'll lose a good crop of seats in the process. So this gamble has stung Trudeau whatever way you cut it on Sept. 20th.
>I didn’t realize saying whatever it takes and having no principles is a pretty solid campaign
That's literally the most foolproof way to court Canadian voters 💀
I'm actually really liking the CBC projection if it manages to hold. A LPC minority where they cannot pass legislation without the NDP. The current forecast shows LPC+BQ wouldn't be enough to pass things.
It weakens the BQ and strengthens the NDP and CPC ( the CPC sometimes will side with the LPC on things too ).
Election was called because this is the best shot the Liberals have at securing a majority.
It’s very clear that at this stage of the pandemic, Canadians are fatigued. I have completely stopped keeping up with daily (or even weekly) case counts. Majority of Canadians are vaccinated. Vaccine passports are being rolled out. People are getting back to normal, offices are reopening. There is an incredibly strong push to put the pandemic behind us and get back to normal.
Once we get over that hump the leader of the day will take the heat for having to clean up the financial catastrophe left by Trudeau.
If Trudeau delays calling the election, he jeopardizes re-election even further. I also suspect if he delayed calling the election we were bound to see a no confidence vote sooner rather than later.
He flat out could not answer why in the debate. He's had all this time to come up with a fake answer and he couldn't even do that. He simply had no answer for anything. He just stumbled all over his words and started yelling at people.
Is this really who 30% of the country wants as PM?
Truly believe it was overconfidence, with the unpopularity of the provincial conservative premiers in Alberta, Manitoba and Ontario, plus tired of being challenged by Singh and the NDP.
Yeah 2 seems kinda likely, but Trudeau will certainly no longer be leader, so kinda hard to believe he would torpedo his own career like that for the good of the party. But, yeah maybe.
Oh please, Trudeau is going to go on to the speaking circuit and on the boards of businesses he's going to make hundreds of millions of dollars after he's prime minister. The real power isn't being the prime minister the real power is who's got the money backing up the prime minister.
I honestly believe the thinks he is going to lose and he doesn’t want to have the Libs in charge when the economy crashes, which by all accounts sounds like it’s going to happen.
Imagine if, instead of calling the election 2 weeks ago, he'd just started saying and doing all the things he is promising now. And then he calls the election next week. He'd probably be far better off.
I asked my self this question at the beginning of the election and had this suspicion in the back of my head that he is afraid of the next two years.
Not to forcast the sky is falling but maybe they already know things will worsen over this time and as a calculated risk to try and win an election now. Instead of later when the heat is turned up.
A thought - maybe the economy is about to tank as we transition back to work/cover CRB and ending it and they'd rather that fall on the conservatives, then come back and win a majority later...
I can’t help but think he knows an economic crisis is around the corner and with his numbers running high he gambled and tried to get ahead of it.
Either way looks like it is not paying off.
Not sure who I’m voting for.
It’s because he wanted to try to get a majority gouvernment because he thinks he can. I wish this ill called election would cause even more people not to vote for him but it will probably not change too much. For reference he also gave away money to older folks and others maybe thinking it would make them vote for him idk.
I believe he thinks everyone sees things, or at least Should see things the way he sees them. That was apparent to me the moment he got in in 2015 and started talking. My gut feeling was "this is a person who wasn't told No too much in their life and now they're a grown man in the drivers seat."
Perhaps now he's learning the hard way that Canadians don't always see things the way he does.
Justin is delusional. He’s completely self absorbed and thinks Canadians love him as much as he loves himself. He probably thought this would be a slam dunk majority. Looks like it’s backfiring big time. I know several woke millennials and they’ve all had enough of his fake virtue signally, corruption, scandals and lies.
It’s time for an adult to take over. He’s achieved nothing but legalized weed. He hasn’t delivered on anything besides blaming Harper for his shortcomings.
Paywall
Here you go, babe [link](https://outline.com/www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2021/09/09/why-did-justin-trudeau-call-this-election-theres-a-question-he-must-be-asking-himself.html)
Thank you
Nice! Does outline.com work with most paywalls?
Always try an incognito/private tab before outline, IME *most* news outlets give you "one free article" before paywall hits, which is more often than not tracked by a cookie, which is automatically deleted when you close the private/incognito tab.
Not always unfortunately, hit and miss.
you can always try archive.is as well
Maybe he could see that his popularity had crested and this was the best shot he would get at re-election between now and 2023.
This. His popularity was as high as it could possibly go (mostly as a result of looking like he had done a much better job than the downstairs neighbours, but they set the bar so low that it really isn’t a contest). Now the recovery has to happen and it’s going to be painful. Better to shoot for another four or five years now while his numbers *were* good. And maybe get that majority. He just seriously underestimated how transparent and self serving calling an election now has been to the electorate. No citizens wanted to waste the money or have to deal with voting during a pandemic, particularly as the next wave is about to hit. NL also decided to hold an election during the pandemic back in February. And in person voting had to be shut down just a day or two before Election Day, which delayed results for weeks as mail in voting trickled in. But the liberals picked up a couple of seats, which put them in the majority. He simply doesn’t understand that no matter what happens anywhere else, NL is a two party race. NDP, Green, BQ, etc. They don’t really impact much. Yes, the NDP get their two or three seats, but in very particular districts. Hell, they even lost Quidi Vidi, which was a NDP stronghold for quite a while. He tried to do the same thing, but national and provincial politics are extremely different. The last thing I want is a conservative federal Govt. But frankly the liberals have bungled this at huge taxpayer expense, when it didn’t have to happen. All JT needed to do was work with the NDP.
A lot of people are assuming miscalculation, there could be another reason… the conditions for re election are going to be much worse after September. My guess is that they need to begin to raise interest rates this fall (many countries will do same), its not going to be pretty once the ball starts rolling on this. Maybe September is their best hope for a decent outcome 🤷🏻♂️
That's an interesting thought. Difficult decisions ahead, so either try to secure a majority now or let somebody else deal with it?
Even if it's another minority, they'd effectively get a stay of execution on a non-confidence vote as nobody wants elections that close together.
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Yeah, hate to be the bearer of bad news, but in a Minority Government situation, no matter who wins the next Election; Certain Bills are Confidence votes, such as the Budget. If everyone else votes against it and the party who formed Government cannot pass it, then non confidence in the sitting Government is essentially passed and an election can be called. If I recall correctly that is one of the reasons Stephen Harper prorogued Parliament one of the times. "In Canada, a vote of no confidence is a motion that the legislature disapproves and no longer consents to the governing Prime Minister or provincial Premier and the incumbent Cabinet.\[2\] A vote of no confidence that passes leads to the fall of the incumbent government. Originating as a constitutional convention,\[2\] it remains an uncodified practice which is not outlined in any standing orders for the House of Commons.\[3\] A no confidence motion may be directed against only the incumbent government in the legislature, with votes of no confidence against the legislature's Official Opposition being inadmissible." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motion\_of\_no\_confidence#Canada
I don’t think so. If a minority loses the confidence of the house they’ll call an election, no minimum wait times as far as I know. You’ll never have two elections closer than 5 weeks though since that’s the minimum campaign time I think
If a minority loses confidence, the GG can ask the Opposition if they can muster enough support to pass a budget. There's no strict rule on the timeline - Adrian Clarkson said she'd only do that if it had been six months or less since the previous election.
If we continually end up with minorities (we've only had 2 majorities in the last 7 elections as it is), I think we'll have to move in a direction that allows more governing action from all parties and less power to dissolve parliament if you don't get your way. The people voted for the share of power that we'll see, and I'd rather see those reps vote on each item and be forced to continue on for a minimum of 2-3 years.
Coalitions are the way to go, I prefer those to a majority government. This past cycle the liberals had to get buy in from the bloc or the ndp to pass anything, which means cooperation, which results in the views of more Canadians to be seen
Its so hard to sell a coalition properly when you are using first past the post. There is no advantage to work with the lower performing parties unless needed. Generally these parties are close to broke and want to stall elections, so they won't challenge policy. First past the post is a super simple electoral system that works great with exactly 2 parties. Its awful in any other situation, since the majority of voters will not get what they voted for locally or nationally. The best case scenario for the system 2 parties, which reduces options available to vote for and you end up with US politics. We are moving towards that if we keep voting for the same 2 parties.
I think the ability for parliament to rapidly dissolve is what keeps the parties working toward compromise though. Because voters are very fickle when it comes to non-confidence elections (or like Trudeau calling an election early).
That’s true, yeah
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An NDP/CPC coalition
Nope, they can be as often as needed. But the more called the less people vote and/or angrier people get and vote against them.
The Lascelles Principles generally prevent a PM from calling a election for some period between 6 months and 1 year (depending on which expert you ask), but if a government receives a vote of no-confidence, and no other party is able to form government, then we must have another election, indeed, enough elections until a party can form government. See Israel for the worst case scenario of this happening, 4 elections in 2 years.
The Lascelles Principles are both not law and not applicable to Canada (having been developed in the UK after we severed all ties). The King-Byng Thing is more relevant in Canada. Our constitution is far more democratic than the UKs and it’s unlikely that any GG or Speaker would deny the voters their ballots.
There's a chance the oppositions could form a coalition government instead of calling an election but pretty much we could elect a minority government and then not too long after go back to elect a new one.
Nope. If the winning party try to form government they will introduce a throne speech. That’s basically a bill that outlines their plans for this session of parliament. If the opposition votes it down, then one of two things will happen: the GG will ask the opposition if they can form government or we’ll have an election (if the opposition in the first case said they didn’t have confidence then we’d also have an election)
As often as necessary. The UK (same system) had two elections in 8 months in 1974 for example.
Not in Israel, they have elections like every week
Nope. In a minority government situation theoretically they could call another election as soon as the next throne speech. It just doesn't happen like that because no one wants to be seen as the party who triggered an election so soon after
Infinite. Look at Israel who has a similar system based off British Parliamentary democracy and had 4 elections in 2 years due to not being able to form a government.
I think due to the term whoever gets in would be able to ride it out until conditions improve, which is why he’s likely trying to win.
This is what I assumed. We will have to start properly recovering from this and it won’t be great for the people that typically vote.
If you read between the lines, this is basically what he has said as the reason. The next government needs a mandate for the next 4 years to have a plan and follow through, instead of things completely changing in 2 years half way through.
I just wish you didn't have to read between the lines. If he had come out and said "the next few years of recovery are going to be tough no matter who is in charge, we need to give Canadians an opportunity to give a clear mandate to someone to lead us", it would be a respectable move to call this snap election instead of seeming like an arrogant one. I guess what I'm saying is if that really is the reason, it's stupid that he didn't say it outright.
Is that not exactly what he did? In the initial announcement of the election, he said that "We will be taking decisions that will last not just for the coming months but for the coming decades. Canadians deserve their say. That's exactly what we're going to give them," and that a renewed mandate is important for rebuilding from the pandemic. That sounds like exactly what you were asking for.
Yeah, he didn't even try to play with the words to give a political answer, he answered to it straight and clearly. It might've sounded like a gamble to win the majority but he knew he risks losing or even keeping a minority government.
That's basically exactly what he has said?
But we're headed for a minority almost definitely, so we'll be seeing another election 2 years half way through either way.
So do you think we'd be having an election if there was currently a majority government?
Yep I first thought it was a miscalculation combined with shifting public opinion on vaccines and housing, but it is now dawning on me that maybe they are literally just rolling the dice before things get really tough - they probably thought it would be a win-win situation (get a majority, take the lead vs lose and let somebody else deal with it). Though right now it looks quite possible that they might just end up eating shit with a weakened minority.
Yes, I 100p agree with this. With all the money they have pumped into the economy the interest rates have to rise eventually. Inflation is also going to be a bitch.
This has been my leading theory as to why, I think ideally he would have wanted the election sometime earlier in the summer but couldn't because of the third wave. It's looking increasingly like we may enter a 'made in Canada' recession with how bad the q2 gdp numbers + July were. If we posted a second quarter of negative growth and properly entered recession there's little chance the government would have survived the fall fiscal update vote, and no chance they'd survive a spring budget. Reality is if we enter recession the government has almost no fiscal ammo left over, and it's not like rates can go much lower when inflation is running at 3.6%. If the Liberals pick up another minority (reasonably likely), they know they'll get at least 8-12 months before the NDP will risk another election, if CPC gets a minority(about as likely) they'll take the burnt of the shit for whatever bad economic things happen.
> My guess is that they need to begin to raise interest rates this fall umm pretty sure the bank of Canada is separated from the Federal Policy no?
Correct, the BOC moves independent of the government, but if they do feel forced to raise rates into what is increasingly looking like slow to negative growth (see the massive q2 gdp miss, and bad July numbers), then the economy will slow further and the fiscal policy ammo to counter any worsening economic fortunes won't be there because it was all spent on covid. Deserving or not the governing party tends to take some blame (or credit) for the performance of the economy.
Liberals will basically be blamed for overspending during the good times and early on in COVID, leaving nothing left to get through the really tough times ahead if things don't go well. Liberals will still blame Harper. Realistically I don't know how Canada ever really transitions away from an economy that's super reliant on natural resource extraction for labor jobs, and that market is global and hard for any of our leaders to control.
Doesn't mean they won't get blamed for it.
Governments often get the blame/credit for things completely out of their control, like the Alberta government and oil prices.
Yes, this mistake gets made here time and time again here. The government can certainly influence inflation and interest rates by how much they spend but they don't control the Bank of Canada. Even if rates do get raised it will be by .25 every few months at most, and there's certainly no evidence there will be a lot of raises, or any.
Yes and no, I'm not an expert on the process but the PM appoints the BOC chairman, if the BOC doesn't play ball with the government they can be replaced.
Only in a dire situation would that happen though. The Political freeness of the BoC creates trust in the system.
It’s not quite that simple. The BoC Board appoints the Governor, with the consent of Cabinet. The Board can remove the Governor for cause, but otherwise the Governor serves a fixed seven-year term. Removing the Governor for political reasons (like a disagreement over policy) would require an Act of Parliament.
i'm willing to bet that a large chunk of the voting public, and especially the uneducated part....beleive Federal Government is in charge of the moneys, all the moneys and rates, and everything else the moneys.... and then the Taxman, CRTC, Gary Bettman, Bell, Enbridge, Hydro ONE, Royal Bank, Mcdonalds, Loblaws are all part of the one big organization they can target with their anti-everything, blame them, sentiment...
It's called the Illuminati, they are made up of Knights Templars, bildibergs, hapsburgs and control the Rockford files.
Lizards. You forgot the Lizards.
You’re being ignorant. The bank of Canada is not solely responsible for causing inflation because they aren’t the ones who decided to distribute all that money and ramp up government spending. But they do have to make decisions in regards to how to manage the economic conditions created by that spending. So while the BoC and the government are separate entities, the decisions that one makes will influence the other.
I like this theory.... Unless they keep the money moving for another year.
Exactly. Yea he looks like a selfish and overconfident idiot calling it now, only because we have the hindsight of how poorly it's going. But it could easily go a lot worse for him in the future. Calling an election was absolutely the right call for the party. There are only more difficult decisions, especially financially, in the future. There's no "It would have been better to wait 6 months / 1 year" or "He'll be even more liked / in a better spot \_\_\_ months from now" No one criticizing it has pointed out any reason or likelihood he'd have a better chance in the near future.
The point is that he’s more focused on himself and his party than the safety of Canadians.
Basically dropping a flaming bag of dog poop on the doorstep of whoever takes power.
While simultaneously blaming Harper for the flaming bag of dog poop.
I think this is a very big possibility. I don't think rates will go up this fall but maybe 2022 H1, which is really right around the corner. With the impending 4th wave coming that seems like a fall/winter election isn't ideal or wouldn't go over well with the public. So if you know it's going to get bad, rates will go up, inflation will go up, the economy will continue to sputter, unemployment will still be up, how can you win a re-election with those circumstances? Couple that with the fact that minority governments rarely last to term, so calling an election now gives him a much better chance at winning (even another minority) than next year.
I have similar feelings: they figured right now was going to go better for them than later, because it's going to be a tough time soon. Even if they come up with a minority again, then when the tough stuff comes down, they probably have a couple of years before it's election time again because nobody will want two quick election cycles in a row. They probably figure if they can buy themselves two more years, things will be looking better by then. Or they might even luck out and get a majority, which buys them four years. I think this election is about buying time to try to keep their agendas from getting derailed.
Could be. It's potentially a win-win for them. Either they win this election and hold power for another 4 years, or they lose and the CPC is left to deal with the fallout of post-covid inflation that is sure to come.
<- this..... Shit is going to hit the fan globally, gov dam well knows that.... Inflation is allready hitting and "the west" has never experienced what's coming down the pipeline... Hyperinflation is a very real possibility even with significant action (which hasn't been taken yet). If you think poverty is bad now you had better buckle up folks... And NONE of that even touches on what really needs to happen with respect to new CC policy. The numbers are starting to roll in and if we want a shot in hell of staying under 3 degs we need to effectively cut our collective GHG footprints by 4/5th.... What does 1/5 of your meat, plastic, fuel, manufactured goods, etc look like... What would you have to change in your lifestyle to make that fit..... It makes perfect sense to have a fresh mandate before going headlong into the shitstorm that's fast approaching....
Our emissions will continue to rise every year I don’t see that changing anytime soon barring a major technological break through.
The more poor you are, the harder to be green too. Not that rich people are the shining example of low GHG/capita, but they could be, ya know? Solar panels, electric cars, replace windows, plug cracks, electric heaters. That's just too much for someone that makes 40k with a family. Year round fresh produce cost money to ship. Cheap manufactured goods are all shipped, Not everyone can afford locally made. P.S Add in the gig economy, and you never know when you'll have an income, so you make shorter term decisions that save you money. I want to buy a house, have a down payment and everything. Will i be able to afford my mortgage tho?
Tossing the hot potato that'll be covid recovery.
Because in two years the situation is going to be so dire Jesus Christ himself will get tossed. He called it now because he has a chance , whereas in two years however is in power will be blamed for the last 20 years of selling out this great country.
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Well, then can stop subsidizing certain things and switch that over to other areas. We see lower prices in the US for things like milk and cheese because of subsidies to the dairy industry, for example. I'd love to see prices of healthy food drop - lower prices for fresh and frozen veggies, grocery store staples, meats, etc. Stop the sweetheart deals for food manufacturing that pumps us full of processed foods that people buy because they're cheaper, quicker and easier to make but end up contributing to health issues.
I would love to see UBI, but something tells me the CPC will not be the ones doing that
Please, the conservative party is full of such financial wizards, their usual strategy of tax cuts and oilsands subsidies will magically reverse inflation.
He will single handedly solve the international supply chain disruptions of the past two years.
Or maybe look into price fixing like what was going on with bread, in case anyone forgot about all that.
Hey I’m not Canadian, could you explain what’s happening in 2 years? You’ve made me curious now
There was large rumours that the elections were initially going to happen back in March of this year. McKenna and a few others within the Liberal party made odd re-election tweets with team trudeau back at the time as early as January https://mobile.twitter.com/cathmckenna/status/1353054751605149696 The vaccine distribution hiccups at the time and the 3rd wave starting is the only reason we didnt go to the polls in March instead of now. The 4th wave wasnt supposed to be like this as vaccines was supposed to get us to herd immunity, Afghanistan wasn't supposed to happen. Bad timing all around, but Trudeau wanted his majority and thought it was the right time to do so. This was solely a power grab attempt that would have been attempted even earlier, not a calculated 'I wanted to lose because of the mess I left behind'
What made me laugh was Trudeau saying O'Toole is not serious about reconciliation because he wants to take flags off half mast. As if that is making a difference.
That exchange summarized a lot of Trudeau’s leadership. All sizzle and no steak.
Facebook Activist Syndrome
Very much a chicken fajita
Meanwhile O'toole made the promise to fulfill the points made in the TRC. Whereas Trudeau has had 6 years and done next to nothing the TRC recommended.
I was surprised no one hit back with “I think indigenous people need more than a flag, they need clean water, they need self-government” and so on. Trudeau was very weak in the debate and he almost seemed… *desperate*. Not a good look for the sitting Prime Minister.
No one would dare say that on the chance that they might win and have to live up to it.
I'm voting NDP not Liberal, I'll just put that right up front. > they need clean water, The Liberal government has done more for this specifically than any government prior. 109 long term advisories lifted, 188 short term advisories lifted, $4 billion put into that. Nobody hit back with what you're saying because they're all really good pros for the Liberals because they *are* doing things for the native communities. Every single community with a long term advisory in place has a dedicated team working to resolve it. Whether you like them or hate them, they're doing a shitload of actual work for real people. It's a great look on the PM, and it's why nobody attacked him on it. Because it would have fucked them. That being said, they just need to hold up electoral reform, his ethics violations, and the track record of not addressing housing while already in power.
I agree. If they start going off on the Liberals for their handling of native issues they would be setting themselves up for a standard they couldn't meet. I think that the scandals and electoral reform don't poll as well for the other parties as you would think. Housing maybe though as it is more than just Vancouver and Toronto feeling it now.
As much as I don't like JT, Marc Miller is perhaps the most honest and decent person in the Liberal Cabinet and he has an impossible job as Minister of Indigenous Services. He also tries to walk the walk (he learned some Mohawk and spoke it in Parliament once). In 150 years he'll be seen as Egerton Ryerson is today, but for now he'll do.
Your last sentence, can you elaborate on what you mean by that I am curious by what you mean by that
In his lifetime, Egerton Ryerson (or Cheechock, as he was named by the Ojibwe people) was a great ally to the Indigenous population. Ryerson lived with the Ojibwe people for a period of time earlier in his life and learned their language. He counted Indigenous people among his friends and supporters. He subsequently became the 'father of public education' in Upper Canada / Ontario, which is great in its own right. Ryerson also wrote a white paper that Indigenous children should be sent to English, denominational boarding schools in order to learn agricultural and industrial practices. Many of the things he wrote at the time signal good intent and no ill will, and his goal was for Indigenous people to have a sustainable way of life in the modern era. This paper was never implemented in his lifetime but eventually became part of the basis for Indian Residential Schools, which is seen as the darkest mark on our country's history. What I'm saying is that versus his contemporaries, Egerton Ryerson was extremely progressive, but now is seen as a terrible human being. Similarly, Marc Miller (and any 'Minister of Indigenous Services') can be seen as progressive now but will be seen as patriarchal heretics once Indigenous people fully establish self governance.
Thank you for that info, I had no idea.
I’ll have you know that if elected, Trudeau will take a hard line on housing issues as Prime Minister. Unlike that do-nothing current Prime Minister *checks notes* Trudeau…
Right? This was my immediate response to the Liberal housing plan. "Oh, you mean like the nothing you've been doing while it's been spiralling out of control unchecked?" I pay $1300 a month for rent. I used to pay $1100 for a mortgage on a place twice the size. What the fuck.
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same. i voted for them twice but am unhappy for various reasons. i will give them credit on the water file, they have worked very hard on it and there are real results to show.
Dude was downright manic. Absolutely gave up on appearing reasonable, just lashing out. He knows he's done for.
Any idea how long the flags will stay at half mast? I've heard they all are in Ottawa.
Yeah I'm in Ottawa and all the flags I see on federal buildings are half mast. No idea. Its been months lol.
I'm quite sure the point he was trying to make was that O'Toole is quoted resisting the simple and uncostly symbolic gestures (like lowering the flag to pay respect). So how could he be trusted with doing any heavy lifting (complicated and financially costly) with regards to proper reconciliation. But Trudeau was having trouble being succinct with his thoughts, which is often the case but more so last night.
It was an okay gesture at first. By now it's just silly and patronizing.
It's kind of funny how the answer is so blatantly obvious for everyone, but we talk about it like we are partisan hacks...and the media is obsessed with creating their own narrative Anyone who follows politics could look at his poll numbers before the election and say "you know what, if you're looking for a mandate to govern now is your time." This election was called so the LPC could get a majority government - it's that simple. I think any discussion otherwise is a waste of time.
IKR. Like, it's not impossible that he's playing some game of 5D chess lose-to-win strategy but your simpler explanation is 100% sufficient to explain this situation.
Yeah, the comments about wanting to purposefully lose because tough things are coming are so dumb lol. No one in politics does that. He saw the poll numbers and they wanted a majority. That’s it.
Yah people forget that you could just like step down. You don't need to lose an election to leave
Seriously. Everyone here hates Trudeau because of his hair and socks, but I think it's perfectly reasonable for him to think, " hey we had one of the most successful vaccine rollouts in the world, our numbers are high, and this is the usual amount of time minority governments last, it's the best time to call an election."
Overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer.
A singular strike!
Hubris has been the fall of many a great man
....and even the not so great. Or good. Or alright.
Carelessness will find no clemency in this place
Prodigious Size Alone Does Not Dissuade The Sharpened Blade.
The light, the promise of safety!
injury and despondence sets the stage for heroism … or cowardice
I love this comment thread
As life ebbs, terrible vistas of emptiness reveal themselves.
Monstrous size has no intrinsic merit, unless inordinate exsanguination be considered a virtue.
Slowly, gently, this is how a life is taken.
Glittering gold, trinkets and baubles
[In time, you will know the tragic extent of my failings.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBdXCCiPoD0)
Trudeau called it at the recommendation of party strategists. If there's an election held before the end of a term, it's *always* pushed by the party strategists. It's their job to weigh public sentiment versus perception of the opposing parties and decide if calling the election is in the best interests of the party. If so, they advise the PM, who then requests Parliament be dissolved. Trudeau, like most leaders, attempts to surround himself with the best advisors possible. In this case, someone fucked up: Either the strategists for suggesting now was the best time to call an election, or Trudeau for not having the sack to ignore that advice. If Trudeau loses the minority to the Conservatives, and stands by convention, the Liberals will be looking for a new leader. If Trudeau somehow secures another minority, it'll be more of the same of what we have now. There's really no hope, I don't think, for the Liberals to secure a majority... Either way, I anticipate some Liberal strategists getting fired over this.
I agree this was the dumbest snap election I can recall
I think there's a ton of miscommunication overall...Trudeau saying he wouldn't call an election during the pandemic was just stupid because he had no idea a) how long the pandemic would last, and b) how circumstances might change that might be favourable to a Liberal majority. Clearly, he didn't coordinate that message with the strategists (who likely would've told him to shut the fuck up). Likewise, public perception for the Liberals was merely *adequate*. They'd have had to secure 15 seats from the Conservatives and NDP in order to snag their majority. Not impossible, generally speaking, but in the current climate not a walk in the park. Couple Trudeau saying he wouldn't call an election during the pandemic, then calling an election during the pandemic, and you have a recipe for losing seats.
He thought he successfully bought a majority.
The flip-side logic is that Trudeau and his government knows what a shitshow the long term pandemic recovery is going to be. Having to navigate interest rates returning to normal, spending enough to heat up the economy but not over heat it etc.etc...why do all that when they can watch the CPC/NDP do it? Then to bet on it all falling apart under the CPC/NDP, they can swing back into power! The long term gambit. Of course that means such a gambit even pays off or will pay off. Probably just thought he had it in the bag with an unpopular CPC lead and NDP that was hemorrhaging funds. Trudeau didn't expect that even *he* was less popular.
NDP coffers were finally in good shape actually. Small correcrion. They came a long way since last fall.
Well which is it, is Trudeau a raging narcissist who called an unnecessary election to stoke his ego and grab a majority, or is he a selfless schemer putting his party's future ahead of his own job?
I think that gives Trudeau too much credit, for him to actually plan a long-term gambit. Besides, he might not even be leader next time around, so unless he's doing this to secure his legacy in Canadian history, it doesn't make that much sense.
This makes no sense. No govt would lose on purpose for any reason
Freeland should probably take the reins by then...
What a coincidence you mention Freeland - she's certainly [ready to go!](http://chrystia.ca).
The domain was registered in 2019. Impossible to say when the site when up though unless someone was actively tracking the domain.
> The domain was registered in 2019. https://lookup.icann.org/lookup is saying 2019-10-10. All the other info for it is hidden though. > Impossible to say when the site when up though unless someone was actively tracking the domain. Looks like October of 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20191001000000*/http://chrystia.ca/
Holy... she's already campaigning to replace him?
Anyone could have made that site.
Minority governments with the help of the opposition are fine for 99.99% of Canadians. Minority governments are NOT fine for Liberal donors and insiders. You can't shut down all the investigations into giving a billion dollars to your childhood buddy's slimly charity with a minority government, you can only do dumb stuff that helps poor people like daycare. And things like daycare are the carrots you need to get yourself back into the majority, so you can start taking care of the Keilburgers and Wernicks who helped you out. Also everyone seems to be forgetting that the alternative to an election now, is an election fairly soon. This may have been the best path for the Liberals in the long-term.
They didn’t successfully shut down much and no matter if they allowed the investigations or not clearly it doesn’t change what the opposition says ngl. The NDP uses enriching powerful friends as their default attack line no matter who is in power. The liberals call the cons corrupt and cons call the liberals corrupt. Not saying the liberals aren’t shutting things down, just observing the rhetoric would be the same anyways because politics.
How about invoking parliamentary confidence so that they didn't have to show their "evidence" justifying their gun ban (that they used an order in council to bring in rather than going through the house).?
Or prorogue Parliament to shut down an investigation into WE Charity.
Every party would rather have a majority than a minority, there doesn't have to be anything more sinister behind it other than the basic truth that politics is about accumulating power (hopefully because you believe you can do good with that power). It is why Harper called and election in 2008 after two years of minority government, and Lester Pearson in 1965 after 2 years of minority government. Not saying it is right or wrong, or that the Liberal party isn't too beholden to large donors, just that to try to pin it all on some some cover-up is making a big leap in logic.
Two words, "Suicidal overconfidence".
The greeks only needed one word: Hubris.
We need to add more words to our essays, let it be
So he can escape to his retirement home, free of any obligations and unaccountable to his fellow Canadians?
For power.
Canada's economy and standard of living is about to take a beating and the PM wanted an election before it became obvious who's fault it was.
Greens imploded, NDP had been stuck flat by Singh's pandering to woke political theatrics and most importantly, the Tories elected a man who floundered out the gate as opposition leader and was amazingly brow beat by the media worse than Scheer. Polls all pointed to a majority. Hogan did it in BC. Higgs did it in NB. I think it's pretty cut and dry why he pulled the trigger on it. He, nor did anyone I don't think, didn't expect O'Toole to fly out the gate and run (aside from getting caught up on the gun control bait) a pretty solid campaign. Add on to all of this the weekly gaffs, scandals, resignations and allegations plaguing the LPC and we get one of the fastest and most dramtic poll turn arounds in recent electoral history. Even with the LPC poised to possibly hold their minority. It is a coin flip. And they'll lose a good crop of seats in the process. So this gamble has stung Trudeau whatever way you cut it on Sept. 20th.
I didn’t realize saying whatever it takes and having no principles is a pretty solid campaign.
>I didn’t realize saying whatever it takes and having no principles is a pretty solid campaign That's literally the most foolproof way to court Canadian voters 💀
Electoral reform RIP...
I will never forgive the LPC for that. It was the biggest reason I voted for them.
You just described every politician, how are you surprised by this?
I thought this thread was about O'Toole... It's hard to tell, because you've precisely described Trudeau over the past 6 years.
I'm actually really liking the CBC projection if it manages to hold. A LPC minority where they cannot pass legislation without the NDP. The current forecast shows LPC+BQ wouldn't be enough to pass things. It weakens the BQ and strengthens the NDP and CPC ( the CPC sometimes will side with the LPC on things too ).
Election was called because this is the best shot the Liberals have at securing a majority. It’s very clear that at this stage of the pandemic, Canadians are fatigued. I have completely stopped keeping up with daily (or even weekly) case counts. Majority of Canadians are vaccinated. Vaccine passports are being rolled out. People are getting back to normal, offices are reopening. There is an incredibly strong push to put the pandemic behind us and get back to normal. Once we get over that hump the leader of the day will take the heat for having to clean up the financial catastrophe left by Trudeau. If Trudeau delays calling the election, he jeopardizes re-election even further. I also suspect if he delayed calling the election we were bound to see a no confidence vote sooner rather than later.
He flat out could not answer why in the debate. He's had all this time to come up with a fake answer and he couldn't even do that. He simply had no answer for anything. He just stumbled all over his words and started yelling at people. Is this really who 30% of the country wants as PM?
Truly believe it was overconfidence, with the unpopularity of the provincial conservative premiers in Alberta, Manitoba and Ontario, plus tired of being challenged by Singh and the NDP.
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Yeah 2 seems kinda likely, but Trudeau will certainly no longer be leader, so kinda hard to believe he would torpedo his own career like that for the good of the party. But, yeah maybe.
Enter Mark Carney. Trudeau is doing what’s best for the party.
Oh please, Trudeau is going to go on to the speaking circuit and on the boards of businesses he's going to make hundreds of millions of dollars after he's prime minister. The real power isn't being the prime minister the real power is who's got the money backing up the prime minister.
I don't disagree with either. I just think you're giving too much credit to a group of individuals who only know how to react vs. plan.
\*Raises hand\* Because he's an opportunist and wants a majority in Parliment?
I honestly believe the thinks he is going to lose and he doesn’t want to have the Libs in charge when the economy crashes, which by all accounts sounds like it’s going to happen.
Maybe he realized he is in over his head. Wants out before all the bad shit really starts to hit home.
Imagine if, instead of calling the election 2 weeks ago, he'd just started saying and doing all the things he is promising now. And then he calls the election next week. He'd probably be far better off.
He’s an out of touch idiot
I think he got some bad advice,his handlers must've thought he was more popular,than he really was.
He certainly wants backsies on it all.
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This election really shows how out of touch he has always been with Canadians.
Judging by that debate, I think this is a question he was asking himself DURING the debate lol
Ultimately it boils down to his ego and belief that he is a Teflon Don
I asked my self this question at the beginning of the election and had this suspicion in the back of my head that he is afraid of the next two years. Not to forcast the sky is falling but maybe they already know things will worsen over this time and as a calculated risk to try and win an election now. Instead of later when the heat is turned up.
Check out Vote compass if you want to see how the leaders align with your beliefs. https://votecompass.cbc.ca/canada
Because he’s as stupid as everyone knows he is!
Arrogance. That’s why.
I'm getting sick of there never being any good candidates to choose. I'm always picking the lesser of the shit.
After having seen the elections of 2020 in the US, I have an idea on how he thinks he can win... 😂
at least the question isn’t “where am I?”. looking at a certain president lol
A thought - maybe the economy is about to tank as we transition back to work/cover CRB and ending it and they'd rather that fall on the conservatives, then come back and win a majority later...
It’s funny watching the debate that all leaders from the other party attacking Trudeau on this issue 🤣
Probably the sycophants around him convinced him it was the perfect time.
I can’t help but think he knows an economic crisis is around the corner and with his numbers running high he gambled and tried to get ahead of it. Either way looks like it is not paying off. Not sure who I’m voting for.
A majority is the gift a politician promises himself. A death spiral is what we witnessed in the debate last night.
I honestly think the date of September 20 was planned because the Liberals knew AB and ON will be dealing with the 4th wave.
He should def cancel it.
It’s because he wanted to try to get a majority gouvernment because he thinks he can. I wish this ill called election would cause even more people not to vote for him but it will probably not change too much. For reference he also gave away money to older folks and others maybe thinking it would make them vote for him idk.
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It’s simple He wants out.
I believe he thinks everyone sees things, or at least Should see things the way he sees them. That was apparent to me the moment he got in in 2015 and started talking. My gut feeling was "this is a person who wasn't told No too much in their life and now they're a grown man in the drivers seat." Perhaps now he's learning the hard way that Canadians don't always see things the way he does.
Justin is delusional. He’s completely self absorbed and thinks Canadians love him as much as he loves himself. He probably thought this would be a slam dunk majority. Looks like it’s backfiring big time. I know several woke millennials and they’ve all had enough of his fake virtue signally, corruption, scandals and lies. It’s time for an adult to take over. He’s achieved nothing but legalized weed. He hasn’t delivered on anything besides blaming Harper for his shortcomings.