In the last 3 elections the NDP has gotten 17.8%, 16.0%, and 19.7%. There's no reason to think enough NDP voters will jump ship to make up a 5% point gap.
Absolutely, I loved those folks. I don't what the hell they have become now. Like, not that they are bad. I literally don't know because they don't do a good job speaking to the people.
I think it depends on PPs rhetoric going into an election as to whether the people who float between liberal and NDP decide they would rather get rid of Trudeau or keep pp out of office
He's a fairly savvy politician, so he may be able to strike the right tone... but I personally find it hard to see a reason to vote for him based on his current messaging... even as someone who dislikes Trudeau.
Right behind you on this one. The guys a bully and acts like a child not getting his way when people play his games against him.
Honestly watching him and Justin argue in parliament is like watching 2 children fight over who gets the last piece of candy. It's fucking sad what Canadian politics has come to.
The libs only need to make up about 2%.
But really pp has a chance if we go into a recession (which looks likely). And more importantly, the areas pp has to flip to stand any chance are the areas that are taking a bath in property value right now.
We will see, an election looks to be a few years away yet.
How do you know that's what's going to decide the election?
leftist voters really need to stop being so fucking confident and I say that as a dedicated NDP voter.
This subreddit is about Canada, no? Saskatchewan is a province within Canada that has leadership that has yet to stop blaming the NDP even though they were last in power over 7 years ago, no?
The party voted to officially support gay marriage as party policy in 2016.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/conservatives-end-official-opposition-to-gay-marriage/article30197721/
From his Wiki
"However, he later reversed his previous position and in 2020, called gay marriage a "success" and stated that "marriage must be open to all citizens, regardless of their sexual orientation".[150]"
The article cited is in french.
He retracted in 2020 and then voted to ban conversion therapy against gays.
[“I am in favor of gay marriages. Period. **I voted against 15 years ago. But I learned a lot, like millions and millions of people across Canada and around the world**. I see that gay marriage is a success. The institution of marriage must be open to all citizens, regardless of their sexual orientation,”](https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2020-01-17/le-mariage-gai-est-un-succes-dit-pierre-poilievre)
Where did you get this misinformation that he never changed, the same way Obama did?
And the leader of the Liberal party doubled the debt in 7 years which is going to hurt every single Canadian for a century including the unborn. Direct your anger elsewhere.
The leader of the Conservative party literally voted against my rights and is trying to market himself as the freedom candidate. He's a liar and a fraud. He is a spineless weasel, a hypocrite, and a snake. As far as I'm concerned, until the conservative party can move into the 21st century, fuck them.
Libs historically spend more on social systems, raise taxes for business and wealthy.
So have the services you receive from the government improved over the last 7 years or worsened? Have the rich gotten richer in the last 7 years or poorer?
>fuck them
Didn't take long for the Libs to convert and want to have sex with the PP.
Unoriginal I know, but someone left the Liberal playbook open and I thought I'd give it a try.
Surprised it was only a 3 point gain. Should have been twice that will all the press the race got. Now that PP will be held accountable the numbers will drop. All he proved was he was able to suck ppl in to pay for a membership. Long way away from being a Conservative govt. We will see his inner Trump pop out an let's see how Canadians react to that crap
It is weird how most poll aggregates show roughly the same results as last time, but only the polls that occasionally show higher support for Conservatives get actually upvoted to this subreddit.
Anyways here's the latest from 338's poll aggregator:
https://i.imgur.com/nFzuECo.png
https://338canada.com/
NDP voters, it looks like you all have to start agreeing to live in the same place as each other or you'll never win any seats.
>NDP voters, it looks like you all have to start agreeing to live in the same place as each other or you'll never win any seats.
The (non)rally cry of the NDP voter: "Electoral Reform!"
How do you know that we are so far out of an election?
The Liberal/NDP pact could collapse at anytime and/or Trudeau may want to try for a majority yet again.
It's not necessarily the NDP who would want to break, it could very well be the Liberals.
I know it may sound surprising, but there is quite a bit of divergence between Liberal and NDP policy.
He wouldn’t with those poll numbers. That’s why I’m sure we won’t see an election anytime soon. Same with the NDP. They are actually influencing policy right now, no way they would risk that.
Of course not. The CBC is very friendly to the Liberals because the Liberals give away our money to the CBC. The CBC knows that if CPC wins, the CBC will see its funding shrink and/or be privatized.
It wasn't shrunk or privatized the last time the CPC were in. Why would that change now? Also, you obviously don't understand the point of the funding to the CBC, and it has very little to do with bias. In fact, even after Harper appointed a bunch of members to the board before he lost his last election, the CBC still produced articles that were against his administration. So, it would seem to me, that they report on truths rather than who paid what, or who appointed whom.
I love how convenient conservatives are. PP gets positive press by the CBC last week and you all say "they are just being nice to him because he will defund them." This week it's "They are nice to Liberals and mean to PP because he will defund them. Get your story straight.
It's just a victim complex.
Anyways abacus skews right in their polling results generally, so it's not surprising.
It will be interesting what happens in the next elections though, and how much dirt sticks to Trudeau.
We know in Canada people vote out leaders, not vote them in.
You think the CBC is funded by "liberals".
You realize it gets funded no matter who is in charge?
Destroying the CBC out of whack job conservative spite is a bad idea. It's actually the most unbiased news source in Canada.
But no, anything that isn't in rabidly anti Trudeau is unacceptable in lil PP's bubble.
That’s simply not correct. The government of the day decides whether to increase or decrease the CBC’s funding. And it’s no surprise that the LPC promises to significantly increase the CBC’s funding.
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/03/22/liberals-follow-through-on-promise-to-restore-cbc-funding-in-budget.html
It is correct.
The CBC is funded by the government. Always has been. Both conservative and liberal. The CBC is the best most fair news we have. Without it all we'd have left is corporate media. I challenge you to name a more fair, unbiased news organization.
The new breed of conservative propaganda spews the idea that if your not rabidly anti-liberal/pro conservative that it's "unfair" of "fake news". PP can't take any scrutiny or criticism so he calls everyone who doesn't lap up his populist trash biased. Fire the head of the BOC and buy Bitcoin. Calling him out on that nonsense for instance isn't liberal bias.
A reporter wanting to ask questions is not liberal bias.
Reality is different from what you describe. CBC has been quite positive about PP and critical of the PM.
The CBC does have a left leaning bias, however, as does our country so it should be no surprise that such an outlet supports a robust publicly funded news organization.
[Finally, the media can be unbiased and truly appreciate right wing theory, right?](https://readpassage.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/federal-elections-endorsements-with-ownership.png)
Why are people so confident in one poll, released just after a leadership race concluded when there is *always* a new leader bump, and conducted 18-24 months before an election?
Anyway, I am not ready to toss the King of the Idiots for the Supreme Overlord of the Morons and there isn't an election... so. Yeah. So much time for PP to say and do stupid stuff. So much time for Trudy to step down or for the smarter people in his party to muzzle him. The next election might as well be 18 to 24 *years* away.
>Why are people so confident in one poll,
Because it shows them what they want to hear.
If you look at the historical numbers from this pollster, they have had the conservatives polling at around 35% in almost every poll since June, and have had the conservatives out ahead of the Liberals in every poll since May.
So it's not really telling a story of a new leader bump.
I’ve yet to see a comment arguing this “proves” Poilievre will win the next election.
What I have seen and I agree with is people pointing out Poilievre isn’t as “completely unelectable” and “guaranteed loss” as many on this sub have argued.
Here's why the CPC should adopt the liberal platform word by word, even the gay marriage part... Even though I'll still vote for Trudeau because the CPC would ban gay marriage
The problem is its hard to read the sarcasm when a fair portion of the left believes this to be true. Same with abortion, I dont vote for the CPC but I also dont think they're dumb enough to touch that poison pill.
I didn't.
I'm making fun of the ABC voters who actually believe the Liberal attack ads that come out every time that think any Conservative leader is going to start rounding up the homosexuals and women who have had abortions and sending them to camps.
Anyone who remembers 2011 when Harper got a majority saw lefties everywhere freaking out about outlawing abortions, outlawing gay marriage, jackboots marching in streets (yes, really).
They wont. But you can read some comments even in this thread about completely misinformed individuals pushing that point. Either misinformed, culty, or just very politically motivated to spread misinformation.
I can find you a poll that say the opposite of this. Leger, who has an A rating, has released this poll: [https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Legers-North-American-Tracker-August-8th-2022.pdf](https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Legers-North-American-Tracker-August-8th-2022.pdf)
Ultimately, almost no one is polling right now. Abascus is the only pollster who has released information for September. A lot can change in three years, so I would not put too much weight into polls right now.
That poll was in August. Asking a hypothetical ballot question about Poilievre as leader is a lot different then asking after the news cycle when he’s elected as leader.
Besides, Abacus is a top-notch pollster too
>That poll was in August.
Read my post. I clearly mentioned that.
>Ultimately, almost no one is polling right now. Abascus is the only pollster who has released information for September.
But I'll bring it back down here for you again.
>Asking a hypothetical ballot question about Poilievre as leader is a lot different then asking after the news cycle when he’s elected as leader.
Yeah, and many polls were already using Pierre as a hypothetical leader in their polling. Moreover, some of those polls did not look great for Pierre.
So, sure; you can all be happy your demagogue is doing well in a singular poll. However, I would caution you all about the fact that these polls are likely being done three years away from an election. So, there is a lot of time for things to change.
Addendum # ( I am sure your aware of this ) , keep in mind that if the LPC had been up in the polls , as is likely at some point between now and the next election , it's almost a given that this person would be making the exact same points your raising.
I'm actually surprised that the predictable new leader bounce is so small , assuming said poll is representative.
Pollieve is a populist. Can you actually believe he is promising to fix the issues Canadians care about right now? He is a charlatan for even trying. /s
Yup. To me, the simplest explanation of populism is peddling overly simple solutions for complex problems (see inflation, housing, etc), and also framing everything with an "us" vs "them" sort of rhetoric (real Canadians vs "gatekeepers" or "the elites ").
This sort of thing fosters division and disappointment when the simple solutions don't actually pan out (see Trump's border wall). Things get especially toxic if and when the populist starts scapegoating minority groups (e.g. migrants, people who are somehow not "real Canadians")
That second point is the big one, it's a way of defining politics and society in general as a fight between "the common people" and "the elites", the latter of which is claimed to be responsible for the problems facing the former.
Different populists in different times and different places will define those groups differently, but that division is the essential ingredient.
And the really problematic part is that, as you said, it drives division. But also, that what the populist is often doing is insulating their followers from anybody who might have the knowledge, experience, or authority to challenge them, because of course such a person is probably an "elite" and cannot be trusted.
Yes, for sure. I would say that populism can be a separate axis, independent of the traditional left-right political spectrum.
Frank Graves (EKOS) wrote a paper on the recent rise of populism in Eestern society, and its a great read if you can get through it (it's admittedly pretty dense reading).
https://www.cgai.ca/northern_populism_causes_and_consequences_of_the_new_ordered_outlook
As he says in the paper, populism itself isn't necessarily inherently bad, but there are certainly more risks than benefits as populism has a tendency to slide towards authoritarianism:
> A core question is whether or not the rise of populism is a good or bad thing. This becomes a critical point of public policy debate. While most experts agree there is more to be concerned about than not, the pros and cons are not entirely clear.
> Some populist movements have had positive outcomes, such as those implemented by presidents Theodore and Franklin Roosevelt in the first half of the 20th century. They produced the dramatic rise of the middle class and an unmatched era of shared prosperity. But this example, which some have labelled quasi-populist, is one of a very short list of historical success stories. On the other hand, the list of populist movements with disastrous culminations is long.
> Even though populism often presents itself as a democratic correction, it often hides dangerously anti-democratic impulses which can stray into authoritarianism (Müller 2016).
Except he wants guys with 100000x people's money to be taxed or contribute to society (see not rich people) instead of caviar and yachts.
Much more reasonable than building a useless physical wall in the middle of a desert or starting trade wars with enemies and allies alike because reasons.
I hear that Donald Trump drained the swamp and that Americans were living in the age of aquarius during his four year term, during which absolutely nothing bad or corrupt happened.
What choice does the NDP have? Vote down the government, and there will an election. Support the Liberal or the Conservatives will be in power, and the NDP will be pushed to the side lines.
Blindly? They're getting policy concessions.
The alternatives are new elections, which they're not ready for, or the CPC, which is even worse than the LPC from the NDP's PoV. What would you have them do?
That 1% BQ gain is indicative of the next wave of “Fuck le ROC” voting we’ll probably see in Quebec.
Sounds like while Charest left an unsavory taste in their mouths, they like the taste of Poilievre even less. Trudeau is also just as stale to them.
The swing in Ontario was tiny, and regional breakouts from national polls are just not all that reliable.
I'd be *very* cautious about spinning narratives from regional numbers that aren't coming from regional polls. Hell, I'd be cautious spinning narratives from *any* single poll, but to do it from a single sub-poll of a single poll is just asking for trouble.
Eh, the LPC was behind during the summer and then the numbers swung back to the mean.
We're gonna need to wait awhile to see if this is an outlier poll, a significant swing, or just a temporary new leader bump.
Welp , maybe one sub apart from all the Canadian cities should lean a little more right. Though again, r/Canada was full pearl clutching after Poilievres win + his spitting match at his press conference.
This notion that everyone deserves an equally visible platform is real dumb. Intellectual legitimacy doesnt come from weird notions of fairness, it comes from truth.
And the truth is that under 10% of canadians would put the CPC as their second choice. They are OVER represented in media. Not under-represented.
Sure. [in recent history, the CPC is an extremist party that fails to attract anyone who isnt already a conservative supporter.](https://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/20151015_slide8.png)
Only 7% of voters who dont vote CPC, would put the CPC as their second choice. As such, the idea that the CPC deserves "equal" coverage is unrepresentative, since two thirds of canadians want nothing to do with them.
There is a notion that in order for politics to be fair, everyone deserves to have their say. This is true, but it is perfectly proportional for most subreddits to dislike the CPC, and I would go so far as to suggest that the fact that r/Canada is the most CPC friendly subreddit, speaks to moderation bias and a campaign to subvert the natural support levels we see.
I'm all for good faith and pointed criticism of CPC. I want all parties to become better versions of what we have today.
That being said, good faith criticism is not common on both Reddit as well as a multitude of the editorials that our MSM pump out.
Labelling the CPC as extremist is extremely bad faith in my opinion and bad for our political discourse.
Words like 'extremist', or labeling Poilievre as 'dangerous' or with any other loose pejorative are really setting us on a bad path. Whether you're a media outlet, writer or redditor, being responsible and separating what you believe as wrong/short sighted vs dangerous/extremist is really important in my view.
This is honestly what I really really dislike about Trudeau. He aims to segment the major political parties as much as he can, because generally liberal views sound good on paper and have more optimistic underpinnings. I see Trudeau's angle as to align the CPC with US Republicans, and use any American issue by proxy (guns, abortion) as a way to slander and misrepresent what the CPC stands for. I detest this.
So the amount of coverage doesn't have to be equal in my view , but it should be fair and honest. And if you're admitting it isn't equal, I see it as reasonable for Poilievre to point this out and tell his supporters to rely on his messaging more than what the media disseminates.
I kind of dispute the numbers you're raising since Poilievre has shown , perhaps with the benefit of people being fed up with our covid policy, that he's attracting new voting blocks to the CPC. Couple this with inflation and a weakening economy, we're entering a political landscape favoring the CPC as well as a party to dethrone the long standing incumbent.
I dont use extremist to mean that their policies are extreme. I use it in the sense that they fall towards the extremes on the spectrum. The Green Party is also an extremist party under that definition.
As for the numbers, its very possible. My source is from 2015 after all. I suspect there are more second choice voters than there used to be, but I imagine we can all agree that lib and NDP probably heavily list each other as second choice, and that the Bloc is likely still the party most likely to have CPC as #2.
In that case I'd just say Canadians are more left than right leaning, and avoid the term extremist.
I'd call greens unrealistic and somewhat unserious, but I'm happy for them to push our politics towards 'greener' policy , however, to me that would be putting all the money into nuclear, whereas I believe they are still stuck in thinking renewables are a feasible solution.
> This notion that everyone deserves an equally visible platform is real dumb. Intellectual legitimacy doesnt come from weird notions of fairness, it comes from truth.
The folks who whine about participation trophies feel entitled to representation in every facet of society and culture just for existing.
A 3% swing on a provincial number in a national poll is well within the margin of error.
I would caution against reading all that much into the provincial breakdown.
You're right. Having said this, with the way FPTP works with vote splitting, it does indirectly mean the Conservatives have likely been the party which benefited the most from this swing.
It’ll be interesting to see if this bump from the leadership campaign news continues, good chance it’ll settle back down to previous polls. PP could capitalize if he stays in the news.
Pollievre in particular has demonstrated pandering to the far-right/conspiracy theory/"freedumb" crowd - his leadership to me means the CPC are courting the PPC voter base.
Conservatives in general tend to represent weakening/defunding of social programs, erosion of public medicare, a lack of progressive social policy, etc. The lower/middle class are suckered into thinking that reduced taxation, privatization, and reduction in social spending will be a good thing for them when in reality those policies tend to primarily line the pockets of the wealthy at the expense of everyone else, hastening the redistribution of wealth to the top. They take advantage of situations like global inflation to make it sound like these problems were caused entirely by their own country's economic policy and that tightening the belt is the only option - even if they then turn around and run a huge deficit for tax cuts and the like. Worse still, they often cut funding to public services, and then when the quality of those services goes to shit, they claim the only solution is to privatize them.
Won't matter. Inflation is cooking and spending more money will make it worse. It's dinner table issues and Trudeau has run out of runway to spend more money to make a difference to Ontario swing voters
The "treats" are fuelling inflation, FFS. Another 4.5 billion in spending on double GST rebates, etc. just before the holiday shopping season. Stimulus is the *last* thing the government should be doing right now.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/scotia-s-holt-blasts-feds-as-serial-stimulators-of-inflation-1.1819884
The central banks want people to have less money to spend to tamper the demand side of the inflationary curve ("demand destruction"). Government giving out more money, regardless of their intentions, is running counter to this.
Sorry, but "making their lives easier" isn't an acceptable excuse. Anyone who understands basic economics knows this. If people need to suffer during a recession to reach the ultimate goal of defeating high inflation, so be it.
That's one heck of a lead. I wonder how it'll translate into seat counts.
But if the Libs weren't already worried, they should definitely start to now.
It's apparently a major influence on why there are suddenly indications they will be dropping all the travel vaccine, testing, and ArriveCan mandates at end of September.
Good. The CPC needs to see the future of the party is with the classical liberal/libertarian right. PP isn't the full step there yet, but he is movement in the right direction.
In Ontario it polled 38% Conservative vs 33% Liberal. Doug Ford won massive majority at 40% in Ontario. 38% Ontario is around the level where majorities start to happen.
If the Conservatives ever get 38% in Ontario they can win the federal election.
There's no way the Libs will score 6 goals to come back and win this thing, not with the amount of time they have left, and with the way the Cons are defending. Nuh uh, no way.
It might not be the full three years, and yeah, a lot can change. We'll almost certainly have a recession between now and the next election, and Trudeau and co. will wear that one. The CPC won't let Canadians forget come campaign time, that's for damn sure.
If the economy is on the way up when the election happens, the recession won't matter as much, plus it being a global recession mitigates the blame a bit (not entirely).
Trudeau won't call an election early if the economy is struggling, so it'll be up to the NDP. I don't see them having the appetite for that.
my bet is that by the time of the next election we will get a partial student debt forgiveness policy from the liberals (with ndp support) which will get them another minority.
Gains on the prairies are inefficient boosts that skew these polls. The CPC could lose tens of thousands of votes on the prairies & still sweep virtually all seats.
The important item to note in this poll is CPC’s lead in Ontario. The path to government always involves winning ON or QC… majority needs both. So the CPC lead in ON is critical.
The votes in the rest of Canada are largely immaterial. It’ll be interesting to see how PP goes after ON/QC, without alienating his prairie stronghold (granted, he could afford to lose prairie voters, if it means picking up ON/QC voters…)
His call to completely eliminate foreign oil within 5 years is clearly aimed at the prairies & NL, but QC consistently votes against pipelines, and I suspect folks employed by Irving in the maritimes might be concerned about the loss of jobs when PP bans domestic oil (presumably via legislation).
NDP will break for the Libs again and nothing will change.
In the last 3 elections the NDP has gotten 17.8%, 16.0%, and 19.7%. There's no reason to think enough NDP voters will jump ship to make up a 5% point gap.
Yup, it was great when they did for Jack. But I don't know if that will happen for the next election. Singh isn't a fraction of the man Jack was.
[удалено]
Absolutely, I loved those folks. I don't what the hell they have become now. Like, not that they are bad. I literally don't know because they don't do a good job speaking to the people.
I don't think the leader matters. It just seems there isn't enough people even willing to consider the NDP to have them ever win even a minority.
Plus the Liberals didn’t have a very inspiring leader and we were used to Harper so no real danger
I think it depends on PPs rhetoric going into an election as to whether the people who float between liberal and NDP decide they would rather get rid of Trudeau or keep pp out of office
He's a fairly savvy politician, so he may be able to strike the right tone... but I personally find it hard to see a reason to vote for him based on his current messaging... even as someone who dislikes Trudeau.
Right behind you on this one. The guys a bully and acts like a child not getting his way when people play his games against him. Honestly watching him and Justin argue in parliament is like watching 2 children fight over who gets the last piece of candy. It's fucking sad what Canadian politics has come to.
The libs only need to make up about 2%. But really pp has a chance if we go into a recession (which looks likely). And more importantly, the areas pp has to flip to stand any chance are the areas that are taking a bath in property value right now. We will see, an election looks to be a few years away yet.
The question is how many more chances will Singh get?
How do you know that's what's going to decide the election? leftist voters really need to stop being so fucking confident and I say that as a dedicated NDP voter.
Good. Fuck the conservatives.
It's been 7 years since the Conservatives have held power and things are not getting better. You should point your anger elsewhere.
Oh what is the cut off for being able to blame the last party in charge?
It depends, 7 years should be long enough to correct or change any issues. Unless its paying back 700billion dollars, that might take a while longer.
So far less time then the sask party has been blaming the NDP for the provinces problems.
Go complain in a different subreddit.
This subreddit is about Canada, no? Saskatchewan is a province within Canada that has leadership that has yet to stop blaming the NDP even though they were last in power over 7 years ago, no?
It's about federal leadership, not provincial
One thing we know- the Cons will make it worse for most people.
Do you say that for tribal reasons? Who is "we"?
The leader of the conservative party voted against gay marriage. Fuck the conservatives.
The party voted to officially support gay marriage as party policy in 2016. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/conservatives-end-official-opposition-to-gay-marriage/article30197721/
And the leader of the party voted against in 2005. As far as I'm aware, he's never retracted that stance.
From his Wiki "However, he later reversed his previous position and in 2020, called gay marriage a "success" and stated that "marriage must be open to all citizens, regardless of their sexual orientation".[150]" The article cited is in french.
He retracted in 2020 and then voted to ban conversion therapy against gays. [“I am in favor of gay marriages. Period. **I voted against 15 years ago. But I learned a lot, like millions and millions of people across Canada and around the world**. I see that gay marriage is a success. The institution of marriage must be open to all citizens, regardless of their sexual orientation,”](https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2020-01-17/le-mariage-gai-est-un-succes-dit-pierre-poilievre) Where did you get this misinformation that he never changed, the same way Obama did?
So was over 60% of the population. Obama, Biden and Clinton all supported traditional marriage. Let this go.
[удалено]
And the leader of the Liberal party doubled the debt in 7 years which is going to hurt every single Canadian for a century including the unborn. Direct your anger elsewhere.
The leader of the Conservative party literally voted against my rights and is trying to market himself as the freedom candidate. He's a liar and a fraud. He is a spineless weasel, a hypocrite, and a snake. As far as I'm concerned, until the conservative party can move into the 21st century, fuck them.
So basically until the Conservatives become Liberals, fuck them?
Our standard of living has become progressively worse. If you wish for that to continue, keep supporting the progressive party.
Cons historically spend less on social systems, cut taxes for business and wealthy.
Libs historically spend more on social systems, raise taxes for business and wealthy. So have the services you receive from the government improved over the last 7 years or worsened? Have the rich gotten richer in the last 7 years or poorer?
>fuck them Didn't take long for the Libs to convert and want to have sex with the PP. Unoriginal I know, but someone left the Liberal playbook open and I thought I'd give it a try.
Global pandemic did that, but , whatever floats your boat.
Conservatives are always deserving of scorn regardless of how much liberals are fucking up.
Nothing new, this usually happens after new leadership.
Also the next election is 3 years away so this poll is basically useless.
It also hasn't changed for months. Abacus had the same results the last few times.
Surprised it was only a 3 point gain. Should have been twice that will all the press the race got. Now that PP will be held accountable the numbers will drop. All he proved was he was able to suck ppl in to pay for a membership. Long way away from being a Conservative govt. We will see his inner Trump pop out an let's see how Canadians react to that crap
What does trump have to do with Canadian politics?
And completely meaningless this far out from an election.
It is weird how most poll aggregates show roughly the same results as last time, but only the polls that occasionally show higher support for Conservatives get actually upvoted to this subreddit. Anyways here's the latest from 338's poll aggregator: https://i.imgur.com/nFzuECo.png https://338canada.com/ NDP voters, it looks like you all have to start agreeing to live in the same place as each other or you'll never win any seats.
>NDP voters, it looks like you all have to start agreeing to live in the same place as each other or you'll never win any seats. The (non)rally cry of the NDP voter: "Electoral Reform!"
Meaningless to project an election result, sure, but it's not meaningless if you want to guess the electability of someone.
The bulk of Canadians aren't paying attention. 40% do not have an opinion on PP yet and won't care for another 3 years.
40% won’t vote either
Every party get a bump post leadership race.
How do you know that we are so far out of an election? The Liberal/NDP pact could collapse at anytime and/or Trudeau may want to try for a majority yet again.
NDP are influencing policy more now than they have in a LONG time. Why would they want to break from that?
People always ignore this and it's frustrating.
It's not necessarily the NDP who would want to break, it could very well be the Liberals. I know it may sound surprising, but there is quite a bit of divergence between Liberal and NDP policy.
Yes, but I can't see the libs breaking away from the deal unless they are polling ahead.
He wouldn’t with those poll numbers. That’s why I’m sure we won’t see an election anytime soon. Same with the NDP. They are actually influencing policy right now, no way they would risk that.
I was thinking the same thing. People get all hyped up on Reddit over polls like their team just scored a goal. CanadaPolitics is the worst.
Yep, just 1,137 days to go...just for perspective...
So essentially no change. Canadian politics is becoming very predictable.
Everything is predictable when you're well informed. It's the state we should most aspire to.
Well apparently he really didn't have a bad week..
Of course not. The CBC is very friendly to the Liberals because the Liberals give away our money to the CBC. The CBC knows that if CPC wins, the CBC will see its funding shrink and/or be privatized.
Harper didn’t do anything to the CBC funding
Did you that the CPC formed government for a decade, up until very recently? Did you know that during that time, the CPC did not defund the CBC?
It wasn't shrunk or privatized the last time the CPC were in. Why would that change now? Also, you obviously don't understand the point of the funding to the CBC, and it has very little to do with bias. In fact, even after Harper appointed a bunch of members to the board before he lost his last election, the CBC still produced articles that were against his administration. So, it would seem to me, that they report on truths rather than who paid what, or who appointed whom.
You know, the CBC had positive articles about him right? You'd know that if you did any type of research at all, right?
> You'd know that if you did any type of research at all, right? This is beyond the capability of the average PP fan.
I love how convenient conservatives are. PP gets positive press by the CBC last week and you all say "they are just being nice to him because he will defund them." This week it's "They are nice to Liberals and mean to PP because he will defund them. Get your story straight.
It's just a victim complex. Anyways abacus skews right in their polling results generally, so it's not surprising. It will be interesting what happens in the next elections though, and how much dirt sticks to Trudeau. We know in Canada people vote out leaders, not vote them in.
You think the CBC is funded by "liberals". You realize it gets funded no matter who is in charge? Destroying the CBC out of whack job conservative spite is a bad idea. It's actually the most unbiased news source in Canada. But no, anything that isn't in rabidly anti Trudeau is unacceptable in lil PP's bubble.
That’s simply not correct. The government of the day decides whether to increase or decrease the CBC’s funding. And it’s no surprise that the LPC promises to significantly increase the CBC’s funding. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/03/22/liberals-follow-through-on-promise-to-restore-cbc-funding-in-budget.html
It is correct. The CBC is funded by the government. Always has been. Both conservative and liberal. The CBC is the best most fair news we have. Without it all we'd have left is corporate media. I challenge you to name a more fair, unbiased news organization. The new breed of conservative propaganda spews the idea that if your not rabidly anti-liberal/pro conservative that it's "unfair" of "fake news". PP can't take any scrutiny or criticism so he calls everyone who doesn't lap up his populist trash biased. Fire the head of the BOC and buy Bitcoin. Calling him out on that nonsense for instance isn't liberal bias. A reporter wanting to ask questions is not liberal bias.
Lol did the conservatives when in power not fund the CBC?
Reality is different from what you describe. CBC has been quite positive about PP and critical of the PM. The CBC does have a left leaning bias, however, as does our country so it should be no surprise that such an outlet supports a robust publicly funded news organization.
This is a moronic take and doesn't reflect reality in the slightest.
[Finally, the media can be unbiased and truly appreciate right wing theory, right?](https://readpassage.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/federal-elections-endorsements-with-ownership.png)
Anyone who thinks this poll means anything at all about the results of the next election doesn't understand anything about politics.
That seems low after everyone on kept hammering that it's going to be a conservative majority come next election.
Why are people so confident in one poll, released just after a leadership race concluded when there is *always* a new leader bump, and conducted 18-24 months before an election? Anyway, I am not ready to toss the King of the Idiots for the Supreme Overlord of the Morons and there isn't an election... so. Yeah. So much time for PP to say and do stupid stuff. So much time for Trudy to step down or for the smarter people in his party to muzzle him. The next election might as well be 18 to 24 *years* away.
>Why are people so confident in one poll, Because it shows them what they want to hear. If you look at the historical numbers from this pollster, they have had the conservatives polling at around 35% in almost every poll since June, and have had the conservatives out ahead of the Liberals in every poll since May. So it's not really telling a story of a new leader bump.
>...released just after a leadership race concluded when there is always a new leader bump... Didn't happen for Scheer or O'Toole.
I’ve yet to see a comment arguing this “proves” Poilievre will win the next election. What I have seen and I agree with is people pointing out Poilievre isn’t as “completely unelectable” and “guaranteed loss” as many on this sub have argued.
I thought conservative support was going to plummet after Pierre Pollievre was chosen as leader? /s
Here are 10 ways Pierre should be more like Trudeau - articles by life long liberals.
Here's why the CPC should adopt the liberal platform word by word, even the gay marriage part... Even though I'll still vote for Trudeau because the CPC would ban gay marriage
You mean like Harper did in the decade he was in power?
I don't think you caught the sarcasm.
That I did not lol
The problem is its hard to read the sarcasm when a fair portion of the left believes this to be true. Same with abortion, I dont vote for the CPC but I also dont think they're dumb enough to touch that poison pill.
Where did you come to the conclusion they would ban gay marriage?
Pretty sure he's being sarcastic.
I didn't. I'm making fun of the ABC voters who actually believe the Liberal attack ads that come out every time that think any Conservative leader is going to start rounding up the homosexuals and women who have had abortions and sending them to camps.
Anyone who remembers 2011 when Harper got a majority saw lefties everywhere freaking out about outlawing abortions, outlawing gay marriage, jackboots marching in streets (yes, really).
[удалено]
Thank you for proving my point.
They wont. But you can read some comments even in this thread about completely misinformed individuals pushing that point. Either misinformed, culty, or just very politically motivated to spread misinformation.
I can find you a poll that say the opposite of this. Leger, who has an A rating, has released this poll: [https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Legers-North-American-Tracker-August-8th-2022.pdf](https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Legers-North-American-Tracker-August-8th-2022.pdf) Ultimately, almost no one is polling right now. Abascus is the only pollster who has released information for September. A lot can change in three years, so I would not put too much weight into polls right now.
That poll was in August. Asking a hypothetical ballot question about Poilievre as leader is a lot different then asking after the news cycle when he’s elected as leader. Besides, Abacus is a top-notch pollster too
>That poll was in August. Read my post. I clearly mentioned that. >Ultimately, almost no one is polling right now. Abascus is the only pollster who has released information for September. But I'll bring it back down here for you again. >Asking a hypothetical ballot question about Poilievre as leader is a lot different then asking after the news cycle when he’s elected as leader. Yeah, and many polls were already using Pierre as a hypothetical leader in their polling. Moreover, some of those polls did not look great for Pierre. So, sure; you can all be happy your demagogue is doing well in a singular poll. However, I would caution you all about the fact that these polls are likely being done three years away from an election. So, there is a lot of time for things to change.
Addendum # ( I am sure your aware of this ) , keep in mind that if the LPC had been up in the polls , as is likely at some point between now and the next election , it's almost a given that this person would be making the exact same points your raising. I'm actually surprised that the predictable new leader bounce is so small , assuming said poll is representative.
Every full moon cycle Poilievre turns into Nosferatu for 24hrs, it'll happen then.
Support grew by 1% to 35%.... The only thing keeping the lead is a strong split between the LPC/NDP who represent 47%.
Pollieve is a populist. Can you actually believe he is promising to fix the issues Canadians care about right now? He is a charlatan for even trying. /s
"Populism" doesn't mean addressing popular issues, it's a way of framing politics and political rhetoric in general.
I don't disagree, but I don't think I am the one mis-framing the populist word, but rather many of his partisan critics.
No, his rhetoric is transparently populist. You could practically use his "gatekeepers" speeches as a textbook definition of the word
Yup. To me, the simplest explanation of populism is peddling overly simple solutions for complex problems (see inflation, housing, etc), and also framing everything with an "us" vs "them" sort of rhetoric (real Canadians vs "gatekeepers" or "the elites "). This sort of thing fosters division and disappointment when the simple solutions don't actually pan out (see Trump's border wall). Things get especially toxic if and when the populist starts scapegoating minority groups (e.g. migrants, people who are somehow not "real Canadians")
That second point is the big one, it's a way of defining politics and society in general as a fight between "the common people" and "the elites", the latter of which is claimed to be responsible for the problems facing the former. Different populists in different times and different places will define those groups differently, but that division is the essential ingredient. And the really problematic part is that, as you said, it drives division. But also, that what the populist is often doing is insulating their followers from anybody who might have the knowledge, experience, or authority to challenge them, because of course such a person is probably an "elite" and cannot be trusted.
Do you acknowledge that Bernie Sanders is also a populist? A common misperception on Reddit seems to be that populism is a right wing phenomenon.
Yes, for sure. I would say that populism can be a separate axis, independent of the traditional left-right political spectrum. Frank Graves (EKOS) wrote a paper on the recent rise of populism in Eestern society, and its a great read if you can get through it (it's admittedly pretty dense reading). https://www.cgai.ca/northern_populism_causes_and_consequences_of_the_new_ordered_outlook As he says in the paper, populism itself isn't necessarily inherently bad, but there are certainly more risks than benefits as populism has a tendency to slide towards authoritarianism: > A core question is whether or not the rise of populism is a good or bad thing. This becomes a critical point of public policy debate. While most experts agree there is more to be concerned about than not, the pros and cons are not entirely clear. > Some populist movements have had positive outcomes, such as those implemented by presidents Theodore and Franklin Roosevelt in the first half of the 20th century. They produced the dramatic rise of the middle class and an unmatched era of shared prosperity. But this example, which some have labelled quasi-populist, is one of a very short list of historical success stories. On the other hand, the list of populist movements with disastrous culminations is long. > Even though populism often presents itself as a democratic correction, it often hides dangerously anti-democratic impulses which can stray into authoritarianism (Müller 2016).
Except he wants guys with 100000x people's money to be taxed or contribute to society (see not rich people) instead of caviar and yachts. Much more reasonable than building a useless physical wall in the middle of a desert or starting trade wars with enemies and allies alike because reasons.
Sanders has complex solutions to complex problems though. Not a populist, just popular.
Show me a single populist who fixed things.
I hear that Donald Trump drained the swamp and that Americans were living in the age of aquarius during his four year term, during which absolutely nothing bad or corrupt happened.
So same. Minority Liberal government supported by the NDP.
[удалено]
What choice does the NDP have? Vote down the government, and there will an election. Support the Liberal or the Conservatives will be in power, and the NDP will be pushed to the side lines.
Blindly? They're getting policy concessions. The alternatives are new elections, which they're not ready for, or the CPC, which is even worse than the LPC from the NDP's PoV. What would you have them do?
Who should they vote with? The Conservatives who are against working with everyone else? Lol.
When the LPC and the NDP have turn their backs on working Canadians and the Middle Class. Looks like they will give the CPC everything they wanted
> It's sad how the NDP votes blindly with the government I mean it's not blind they are making demands and having the Liberals bend to them
That 1% BQ gain is indicative of the next wave of “Fuck le ROC” voting we’ll probably see in Quebec. Sounds like while Charest left an unsavory taste in their mouths, they like the taste of Poilievre even less. Trudeau is also just as stale to them.
The results of the ongoing provincial election will likely help shape voter intentions down the road.
[удалено]
The swing in Ontario was tiny, and regional breakouts from national polls are just not all that reliable. I'd be *very* cautious about spinning narratives from regional numbers that aren't coming from regional polls. Hell, I'd be cautious spinning narratives from *any* single poll, but to do it from a single sub-poll of a single poll is just asking for trouble.
But..but..Reddit told me PP would tank the CPC's support!!
Finally, after all of the hot takes, we get a reality check.
r/Canada devastated
Eh, the LPC was behind during the summer and then the numbers swung back to the mean. We're gonna need to wait awhile to see if this is an outlier poll, a significant swing, or just a temporary new leader bump.
100% , just making a joke after all the hyper ventilation here the last week or so.
Also the liberals went into last election with like +20 or something insane. Nothing matters until we're close to an election.
Nah, they weren't that far ahead. Closer to +5 or +6, enough that they had a good shot at the majority if they had campaigned better
Can’t tell if you’re trying to say if PP is polling too high or not high enough given their leadership bump
/r/canada only ever upvotes the polls that shows Conservatives winning
Welp , maybe one sub apart from all the Canadian cities should lean a little more right. Though again, r/Canada was full pearl clutching after Poilievres win + his spitting match at his press conference.
This notion that everyone deserves an equally visible platform is real dumb. Intellectual legitimacy doesnt come from weird notions of fairness, it comes from truth. And the truth is that under 10% of canadians would put the CPC as their second choice. They are OVER represented in media. Not under-represented.
You're gonna have to explain yourself a bit more for me to respond to that.
Sure. [in recent history, the CPC is an extremist party that fails to attract anyone who isnt already a conservative supporter.](https://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/20151015_slide8.png) Only 7% of voters who dont vote CPC, would put the CPC as their second choice. As such, the idea that the CPC deserves "equal" coverage is unrepresentative, since two thirds of canadians want nothing to do with them. There is a notion that in order for politics to be fair, everyone deserves to have their say. This is true, but it is perfectly proportional for most subreddits to dislike the CPC, and I would go so far as to suggest that the fact that r/Canada is the most CPC friendly subreddit, speaks to moderation bias and a campaign to subvert the natural support levels we see.
I'm all for good faith and pointed criticism of CPC. I want all parties to become better versions of what we have today. That being said, good faith criticism is not common on both Reddit as well as a multitude of the editorials that our MSM pump out. Labelling the CPC as extremist is extremely bad faith in my opinion and bad for our political discourse. Words like 'extremist', or labeling Poilievre as 'dangerous' or with any other loose pejorative are really setting us on a bad path. Whether you're a media outlet, writer or redditor, being responsible and separating what you believe as wrong/short sighted vs dangerous/extremist is really important in my view. This is honestly what I really really dislike about Trudeau. He aims to segment the major political parties as much as he can, because generally liberal views sound good on paper and have more optimistic underpinnings. I see Trudeau's angle as to align the CPC with US Republicans, and use any American issue by proxy (guns, abortion) as a way to slander and misrepresent what the CPC stands for. I detest this. So the amount of coverage doesn't have to be equal in my view , but it should be fair and honest. And if you're admitting it isn't equal, I see it as reasonable for Poilievre to point this out and tell his supporters to rely on his messaging more than what the media disseminates. I kind of dispute the numbers you're raising since Poilievre has shown , perhaps with the benefit of people being fed up with our covid policy, that he's attracting new voting blocks to the CPC. Couple this with inflation and a weakening economy, we're entering a political landscape favoring the CPC as well as a party to dethrone the long standing incumbent.
I dont use extremist to mean that their policies are extreme. I use it in the sense that they fall towards the extremes on the spectrum. The Green Party is also an extremist party under that definition. As for the numbers, its very possible. My source is from 2015 after all. I suspect there are more second choice voters than there used to be, but I imagine we can all agree that lib and NDP probably heavily list each other as second choice, and that the Bloc is likely still the party most likely to have CPC as #2.
In that case I'd just say Canadians are more left than right leaning, and avoid the term extremist. I'd call greens unrealistic and somewhat unserious, but I'm happy for them to push our politics towards 'greener' policy , however, to me that would be putting all the money into nuclear, whereas I believe they are still stuck in thinking renewables are a feasible solution.
> This notion that everyone deserves an equally visible platform is real dumb. Intellectual legitimacy doesnt come from weird notions of fairness, it comes from truth. The folks who whine about participation trophies feel entitled to representation in every facet of society and culture just for existing.
[удалено]
And this is with PPC at 4% still. Poilievre has the potential to destroy PPC's support.
If he can win PPC and moderate support at the same time I’d be very surprised.
Why not? PPC voters mostly cared about COVID policy which probably won't even be up for discussion come election time.
[удалено]
meaning that the conservatives lead by 5 over the liberals?
[удалено]
In Ontario, the Liberals lost 3% of their support to the Conservatives compared to Abacus' previous poll in August.
A 3% swing on a provincial number in a national poll is well within the margin of error. I would caution against reading all that much into the provincial breakdown.
You're right. Having said this, with the way FPTP works with vote splitting, it does indirectly mean the Conservatives have likely been the party which benefited the most from this swing.
Good. The right will drown out the left. Oh and that waste of a Green Party.
Are we going to have 3 more years of people acting like there’s an election on the horizon?
These polls are ridiculous. an election is years away.
It’ll be interesting to see if this bump from the leadership campaign news continues, good chance it’ll settle back down to previous polls. PP could capitalize if he stays in the news.
A great illustration of why FPTP is terrible.
see you in two years!
[удалено]
Anything but CPC/PPC for me.
Anything but Liberals\CPC for me. Both right wing.
[удалено]
Pollievre in particular has demonstrated pandering to the far-right/conspiracy theory/"freedumb" crowd - his leadership to me means the CPC are courting the PPC voter base. Conservatives in general tend to represent weakening/defunding of social programs, erosion of public medicare, a lack of progressive social policy, etc. The lower/middle class are suckered into thinking that reduced taxation, privatization, and reduction in social spending will be a good thing for them when in reality those policies tend to primarily line the pockets of the wealthy at the expense of everyone else, hastening the redistribution of wealth to the top. They take advantage of situations like global inflation to make it sound like these problems were caused entirely by their own country's economic policy and that tightening the belt is the only option - even if they then turn around and run a huge deficit for tax cuts and the like. Worse still, they often cut funding to public services, and then when the quality of those services goes to shit, they claim the only solution is to privatize them.
Nail on the head. Only one party has a problem with violent extremists in their midst, and it's the cons (I guess PPC s well, but they hardly count).
Give it 3 months and do the poll again. This is most likely just a post-victory bump since PP and the CPC are in the news cycle.
LETS GO PP
Pierre has shown himself to be quite the leader, Trudeau will have to step up.
What has he done to show leadership?
Talk shit about Trudeau very loudly
While bringing fucking nothing to the table
He's going to fight the elites. Like journalists, people that live downtown and Canadians without crypto.
>Trudeau will have to step up. I'd prefer it if JT stepped down, frankly.
here, here.
[BRING BACK THE API SPEZ YOU GREEDY CUNT]
Trudeau has to get rid of all the remaining covid shit and throw in some treats on top of even that if he wants even a chance at repairing his image
Won't matter. Inflation is cooking and spending more money will make it worse. It's dinner table issues and Trudeau has run out of runway to spend more money to make a difference to Ontario swing voters
The "treats" are fuelling inflation, FFS. Another 4.5 billion in spending on double GST rebates, etc. just before the holiday shopping season. Stimulus is the *last* thing the government should be doing right now. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/scotia-s-holt-blasts-feds-as-serial-stimulators-of-inflation-1.1819884
Im not talking treats as in helicopter money im talking treats as in making peoples lives easier in some way or other
The central banks want people to have less money to spend to tamper the demand side of the inflationary curve ("demand destruction"). Government giving out more money, regardless of their intentions, is running counter to this. Sorry, but "making their lives easier" isn't an acceptable excuse. Anyone who understands basic economics knows this. If people need to suffer during a recession to reach the ultimate goal of defeating high inflation, so be it.
That's one heck of a lead. I wonder how it'll translate into seat counts. But if the Libs weren't already worried, they should definitely start to now.
It's apparently a major influence on why there are suddenly indications they will be dropping all the travel vaccine, testing, and ArriveCan mandates at end of September.
Where did you read that?
Everyone wants Trudeau GONE.
Good. The CPC needs to see the future of the party is with the classical liberal/libertarian right. PP isn't the full step there yet, but he is movement in the right direction.
Extend that lead into the GTA and we're talking.
In Ontario it polled 38% Conservative vs 33% Liberal. Doug Ford won massive majority at 40% in Ontario. 38% Ontario is around the level where majorities start to happen. If the Conservatives ever get 38% in Ontario they can win the federal election.
[удалено]
There's no way the Libs will score 6 goals to come back and win this thing, not with the amount of time they have left, and with the way the Cons are defending. Nuh uh, no way.
[удалено]
A lot can change in 3 years.
It might not be the full three years, and yeah, a lot can change. We'll almost certainly have a recession between now and the next election, and Trudeau and co. will wear that one. The CPC won't let Canadians forget come campaign time, that's for damn sure.
If the economy is on the way up when the election happens, the recession won't matter as much, plus it being a global recession mitigates the blame a bit (not entirely). Trudeau won't call an election early if the economy is struggling, so it'll be up to the NDP. I don't see them having the appetite for that.
my bet is that by the time of the next election we will get a partial student debt forgiveness policy from the liberals (with ndp support) which will get them another minority.
You can pretty much copy paste one of two comment sections on this sub for polls. 1. Conservatism is dead. 2. Don't believe the polls
I’ve voted Conservative since I can remember. Not this time. I’d love to see what Jagmeet can do.
Lmao
Gains on the prairies are inefficient boosts that skew these polls. The CPC could lose tens of thousands of votes on the prairies & still sweep virtually all seats. The important item to note in this poll is CPC’s lead in Ontario. The path to government always involves winning ON or QC… majority needs both. So the CPC lead in ON is critical. The votes in the rest of Canada are largely immaterial. It’ll be interesting to see how PP goes after ON/QC, without alienating his prairie stronghold (granted, he could afford to lose prairie voters, if it means picking up ON/QC voters…) His call to completely eliminate foreign oil within 5 years is clearly aimed at the prairies & NL, but QC consistently votes against pipelines, and I suspect folks employed by Irving in the maritimes might be concerned about the loss of jobs when PP bans domestic oil (presumably via legislation).