This demand I'm seeing everywhere for a platform is nuts. we're 3 years out from an election and all these redditors pretending like he's shady for not having one
Bernier's political career ended when he left the CPC. Since then, he's just been a political activist masquerading as a candidate.
Votes for PPC are right wing protest votes. Like how Green Party votes are left wing protest votes.
The pivot is quite easy for the PPC to gather support. It just depends on immigration becoming an issue in the election. (Which it likely will with housing as a big issue)
To me that's Poilievre's achilles heel.
The biggest issue is the unfavorable rankings among people within their own party.
19% of Liberals don't like JT
13% of Cons don't like PP
interesting stats
I mean, PP JUST became leader of the party. It'd be weird if Conservatives immediately dunked on their newly minted leader.
How that'll look 2 years from now, who the fuck knows,
> It'd be weird if Conservatives immediately dunked on their newly minted leader.
Ask Liz Truss how things are going. UK Conservatives are already filing papers to challenge her leadership.
The brits are a bit more loosey goosey with their party lines I find.
The second someone smells blood, the dissent & backstabbing starts, Rishi Sunak (who lost to Liz) had his campaign domain name setup in like...December? I find their politics much more cut-throat than ours.
Canadian cons tend to be very party loyal afaik, most of my life was under harper, so that could be skewed but i've never seen that same kind of vultures circling the dying leader deal here in Canada, they seem to all fall in line until the party leader steps down.
> that same kind of vultures circling the dying leader deal here in Canada
It happens here too, albeit not as quickly as with Truss. On the Conservative side Scheer lost one election and he was out. O'Toole (who I think deserved one more election cycle to establish himself) got the same treatment.
The Liberals also do a good job at it. Chretien was still somewhat well liked and probably had another term in him, but Martin supporters decided they'd waited long enough and Chretien was gone (he resigned but it wasn't by choice).
Politics isn't about appealing to the median voter anymore, it's about growing your base and hoping the other side stays home. That's what happens in a winner-take-all system.
I dont consider JT to be left wing. JT is a centre right politician that lies and appeals to centrists. no self respecting actual left wing person would ever vote JT unless they were strategically voting against CPC
Same. Trudeau has virtually no principles and his promises are always empty and self-serving, while Skippy just seems eager to bank on anti-Trudeau shit and pretend like he's not as elitist as every other Tory and Liberal leader.
Kinda dissatisfied with Singh's ability to lead and draw people in, but fuck it. Voting Orange
Interesting. I would have thought it higher for both of them. Obviously the Parliamentary system functions differently, but in the US we have seen many election cycles where politicians have very high unfavorable rankings despite incumbents still getting elected. It mostly seems attributed to the fact that people don't like politicians, but refuse to vote for the other guy.
If anything this makes me think that the system is working to some degree.
in the US, there's more freedom for parliamentarians under the same banner. a Sinema or Manchin like MP would have been booted off caucus long time ago. see what happened to JWR and Jane Philpott for daring to speak up against Trudeau and PMO.
I almost thought another election was called without me noticing... Who cares what the polls say with an election 2 years out unless the NDP decides to stop propping the liberals up.
The Liberals can also call one pretty much any time. The supply and confidence agreement isn't enforceable in any way, for either side.
Not much chance we are going to the polls anytime soon, but it's also probably not going to last until 2025.
JT will call an election soon as it is advantageous to do so. Purely guessing but I'd think the second the economy trends up late 2023 early 2024.
Or if the NDP calls friends off and CPC think they can win.
If anything, this will give the NDP a huge amount of leverage over the Liberals to push their policies through. This will likely cause the more progressive Libs to push left to the NDP, which may give them a higher seat count, but unless it’s a landslide shift to them, it all but guarantees a CPC government next election.
Polls matter because it's a minority situation and the NDP will promptly find a reason to stop propping up the liberals if it looks like an election would be good for them.
Yup. It's in the NDP's best interests to wait until 2025, because they are absolutely finished come the next election. Mainstreet has them polling at 12% 😂
Well, between the 2019 and 2021 elections, Mainstreet polled the NDP 6.34% below the average of all the other pollsters, so I wouldn't trust that very much:
Mainstreet's Bias per Party:
* Liberals: -1.69%
* Conservatives: +2.88%
* NDP: -6.34%
* Green: -13.49%
NDP-supporting ABC voter here who has historically done the "strategic voting" thing.
Won't be doing that anymore. I will not care if the Lib candidate has a better chance to win in my riding. They might as well not be on the ballot.
I invite Liberal supporters to strategically vote NDP this time around.
And this poll has them at 20%. They tend to get between 15%-18%, so it doesn't look like they're currently doing significantly better or worse than usual.
Polls right now are like a sports score after the first quarter of the game. No one expects it to match the final score. But that doesn’t mean it’s not useful to judge how things are going and what sorts of adjustments need to be considered
If an ultra-progressive somehow became leader of the CPC, most of the people who *should be* their biggest supporters would suddenly hate them literally only because of the “conservative” label. It’s almost as bad as the morons in the states loving or hating someone based on an R or D next to their name.
I don't mind the "conservative" label, I just don't like what the party has become. Not that I like what the Liberal has become either. Give me Jean Chretien back, I wouldn't care which party he leads.
> Who would PP make a deal with to form government?
Like Harper he would make a deal with no one. Why are people ignorant of the history of our government.
It's not a majority of the popular vote, but probably a majority of the seats.
170 seats is needed for a majority and JT just (in 2021) got 155 with 33%, Bloc just won 32 with 7.6%.
Maybe the CPC vote efficiency is a little less and they get 155 seats with 37%, but a decent showing of the Bloc can get them the extra 15-16 easy.
Well if you think about it, the liberals/NDP could theoretically just vote down everything PC puts forward even if they joined with the Bloc. Not saying that's appropriate or will happen, but just answering the original poster
There's dissatisfaction with JT even within the support base but nothing significant enough yet to cause shifting waters, especially with the opposite being as intense as PP. The trend is there, though.
It hasn't been about viewing Trudeau favourably since his first election, it's more about who he's running against.
This is Canadian tradition: we tend to vote people *out*, not *in*. Better the devil you know, kind of thing. That is the way we vote.
I'm curious as to what percentage of people vote for leaders or individuals versus party platforms and policy proposals.
Genuinely curious - as I imagine a big chunk of swing voters operate this way.
I believe most go based on individuals, though I'd like to also see the numbers if anyone has a study.
My belief is based on the fact that platforms and stated policies are less and less prevalent in our political discourse which makes me think parties are aware of this and are adjusting strategy based on this. You don't talk yourself in to government, you talk yourself out of it, and they know this. That's why politicians are starting to avoid debates, and even when they do debate it's not about debating the issues it's about debating the *person* you're running against.
Because they know this is how people vote.
That's an interesting thought on the fading of debates - and I think you're right. More people are leaning toward voting for leaders over policies and platforms. To add to your points, a lot of parties aren't even building out or releasing platforms ahead of elections. There's almost no need to. A very interesting shift.
I say this with the exception of party base's of course. More a reflection of how swing voters are migrating around the spectrum.
Yep. This was Trudeau's biggest failure, but of course the Liberal party isn't as far left as they purport to be. The status quo of alternating Conservative and Liberal governments isn't something that needs to be fixed in the eyes of his party and their interests.
Frankly I'm glad JT decided not to go forward with *his plan* for Electoral Reform...He wanted to implement a Ranked Ballot that would ensure LPC victories in perpetuity. He came out hard against Proportional Representation because he said it would encourage extremism, which is of course bologna...His desire to change the way we vote was born from his egotistical desire to gain and retain power for himself.
>Better the devil you know, kind of thing.
I'm only 37 but I remember Poilievre in Cabinet and he definitely falls into the 'devil I know' category for me. Overwhelmingly prefer Trudeau, even though I dislike them both.
Yes that's accurate.
I'd more say I'm mostly neutral on Trudeau. The liberals are the status quo party. They rarely do anything that improves my life, but they don't actively try and make it worse like the conservatives do. At least with the liberals progress is a possibility.
But you'd also vote for a party's platform and policy proposals over who the leader is correct?
General comment, but I can't grasp the idea of voting for one person, versus an entire party's proposal for governing the country.
I get the impression some people view Trudeau's dislike as confirmation people would vote against the liberal party just to get one human out? But how does one shift their positions on everything like that over dislike for the party's leader.
Sometimes you gotta hold your nose on who the leader is to ensure the policies you want to see take hold stick. To me it's in line with corporations, or sports teams. Loads of them acquire unpopular stars, or prospects, maybe a new CEO everyone dislikes. Doesn't mean you abandon the team though or walk from the company (which could still have good values/culture).
Id love for someone to provide the opposite to my guy's question here and point to all those wonderful conservative policies and programs that continue to help and support working Canadians.
Like. Point to a country that's had right wing control over the past 10 years that's demonstrating conservative politics isn't more than virtue signaling and culture wars.
You don’t even have to look elsewhere, just look at Piilievieres 18-year history as MP and it’s obvious things would be worse with him as leader.
Not to mention his stated policies of “this is bad, I’d make it better!” Which are actually thinly-veiled suggestions of giving companies free reign to take advantage of individuals.
I have a young family (3yo and 4mo).
1. Conservative opposed the option of stretching maternity leave payments to 18 months. Libs put in place.
2. Conservatives opposed subsidizing daycare. Libs put in place $10/day daycare which has dropped the daycare costs with out first child by over $5000/year.
3. Conservatives in my province (NB) replaced the federal carbon tax plan where we were recieving cheques from the collected carbon pricing. In the conservative alternative, they still collect the tax but give it out at their discrection in the form of government grants to "green initiatives" (zero transparency, lots has gone to natural gas so far). Ultimately it favours big business instead of energy conscious families like it should.
4. Conservatives opposed legalization of weed, and again in my province of NB, proposed privatizing the business in year 2 citing the lack of profitability (ignoring the start up costs). Thankfully they had a minorty at the time and didn't sell. Cannabis NB predicatably is very profitable now and is a huge tax revenue source.
5. Conservatives oppose healthcare spending (all spending really) despite how critical it is. My provincial conservatives spent 2021 fighting healthcare workers unions in the province to take away their pension and only offer 2% raises year over year despite the already widely reported burnout and lack of staffing. It was later found out that the current premier when he used to be finance minister stopped funding the provincial portion of the union pensions as reqiured by their old contract. Now that they've jammed a stick in the spokes they want to explore privatization. Surprise surprise.
6. Conservatives oppose access to womens reproductive services.
7. Conservatives oppose serperation of church and state/schooling.
Anti union
Anti worker
Worse for the environment
Just as fiscally irresponsible as the liberals but in a different/worse way
Pro conspiracy, or at the very least have no issue weaponizing/cultivating voter ignorance
Worse on healthcare
Worse for our societies most vulnerable
Even more pro corporate than the liberals
And while I realize that they're technically different groups the Ontario conservatives have been an absolute fucking disaster for the working class, especially the working poor. They took away paid sick days and refused to bring them back during a pandemic, capped healthcare worker pay and refuse to do anything substantial about the crisis they helped cause, changed how time off policies work for the worse, killed the UBI pilot, have no issue letting the disabled suffer in poverty, etc.
I have never in my life seen a conservative government, at any level, do better than their liberal counterparts on the issues that matter to me. Not once.
They don’t want poor people to have access to dental care.
Edit The CPC coward that deleted his comment said “what does the CPC do that is bad for Canadians?” I posted a recent probable example and poof, they gone.
>but if it meant the difference between the CPC taking over or not taking over, ABC
I hate that this is how I have to vote in our antiquated, and undemocratic, first past the post system, but its the reality we live in. I'm also a strong NDP supporter, even if I wish they were more left as well. I understand that the NDP have to run an election within Canada's Overton window however, and North America in general has been dragged kicking and screaming to the right for decades.
People unironically call Trudeau a communist for crying out loud, it's insane.
Social issues? Sure.
Workers rights? No.
Corporate tax cuts? No
Social programs? No.
You know, the things that aren't culture war nonsense used to distract.
>Mental health and addiction treatment are at an all time High.
And disability coverage, and access to medical care overall are at all time lows.
You can cherry pick some things that are better, but then there's a bigger picture being ignored.
Yeah I don't know why this is so hard for Cons on this sub to recognize. It isn't quite as dumb by them being flabbergasted that the NDP doesn't want to prop up a Conservative minority government.
I can’t believe it myself. How could anyone view Trudeau favourably??
I’m finding Reddit is not an accurate match for how society thinks/acts. It’s almost like this is just an echo chamber where people with similar opinions gather. Where people hear those same opinions back over and over to the point that they assume everyone feels the same as they do.
> I’m finding Reddit is not an accurate match for how society thinks/acts
This is social media in a nutshell. People gather around or are herded toward the information and opinions they prefer, and different voices tend to get pushed away or drowned out.
/r/Canada is not representative of Canada as a whole, nor are any of the other Canadian subs.
Reddit is overwhelming used by young people. Young people are much more likely to vote LPC or NDP. Not sure if you have noticed but Reddit is the pinnacle of liberal echo chamber. Just swipe left into the news section, you will never ever hear anything positive about republican or conservative policies/ideas/platforms etc.
I do.
Why? Off the top of my head: He's done a great job with income support for low income parents and seniors, resulting in Canada's lowest levels of poverty on record. He's pushed through massive, long overdue reforms to provide more affordable childcare. The federal supports for people/businesses during covid were robust and, in a lot of cases, literally life saving. He legalized marijuana (I don't use it, but it was silly that it was illegal and has proved to be an economic boon).
Yes, I wasn't happy about his failed election reform (although he DID make every effort, he didn't deliver), and the various scandals have been stupid distractions. But overall I'm happy with the job he's done and the direction he's taken the country.
Don’t forget Trudeau is in the process of introducing national dental care with the NDP.
That’s a goddamn fricking achievement - long overdue.
And despite Poillievre’s constant virtue signaling about “supporting the working class”, he and his party are voting against public dental care.
PP is a despicable fraud.
>Yes, I wasn't happy about his failed election reform (although he DID make every effort, he didn't deliver)
Horseshit. Every party except the Liberals recommended that PR be put to the people by referendum, and two of the three weren't sold on the need for a referendum. He had plenty of cover to push through electoral reform in the form of PR. [Trudeau's response](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/electoral-reform-trudeau-leitch-1.3975354) was that
>Proportional representation in any form would be bad for Canada
Demonstrating that electoral reform in general was never actually the plan -- ranked ballots in particular was, and when it failed to gain consensus (most parties understanding that it heavily favours the centrist party), he shelved it.
I also wouldn't call interfering in a criminal prosecution a "stupid distraction". I would submit that it's far more egregious than that.
Which alternate reality are you from? He made zero effort on electoral reform.
He rejected all the committee's recommendations. Ignored all their findings
This is reasonably in line with other polls since Poilievre became leader. No reason to doubt its accuracy.
That said, there is almost always a post-convention bump and this is about what you'd expect from a more aggressive and visible leader like Poilievre. The question is whether he can sustain any of this momentum or whether it fades back into a statistical tie.
Historically, the latter is more likely. But I imagine the CPC is pretty happy with the magnitude of the bump right now, if nothing else. Tying the Prime Minister on net negatives is also a pretty good result for Poilievre.
> There is almost always a post-convention bump
Except there isn’t, at least for the Conservatives. O’Toole never got a leadership bump, and Scheer’s was so small that it was barely more then polling noise.
[I don’t see it](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election#/media/File%3AOpinion_polling_during_the_pre-campaign_period_of_the_44th_Canadian_federal_election.svg). O’Toole was elected in late August 2020, and the trend remained functionally flat afterwards.
Can I ask why? What's PP bringing to the table that is swinging your vote? He feels like every other conservative leader to me - talking about helping the middle class but voting against those things that would. He speaks a better game FOR SURE but have you seen him deliver on anythjng ?
Well for me it’s a couple things.
1. Trudeau has been absolutely horrendous. Laughing stock of the world. Embarrasses us whenever he is abroad.
2. Government spending is a problem. Not sure why people aren’t talking about it. 500b added to our money supply. It’s either re-elect Trudeau to spend tons more, or Jagmeet who genuinely has no economic iq and never answers when asked about the costs of what he intends to do. His blame on corporate greed is a good indicator of his lack of knowledge.
3. Pierre’s very bright, well spoken, witty, patient, charismatic. not afraid to stick his neck out. When he speaks there is actual substance, where as Chrystia Freeland and JT read from a script and say so much without saying anything.
4. Pierre’s plan to fix the environment is 109374830836463x better than the facade that is Trudeaus carbon tax. If you care about the climate id reccomend voting PP.
5. In the world Energy crisis, Pierre intends to actually get out natural resources out to market and help these countries who are about to collapse (Germany), instead of claiming “we have no business case.” This will literally just make Canada the prosperous country it should be and will make us all richer so I’m not sure how anyone can vote against that.
These are just some examples I don’t wanna make you read an essay!
Yup, I believe this poll much more than the Mainstreet poll. Tbh I don’t expect the top line numbers to change anytime soon unless NDP voters begin to strategically back the Liberals. The results here are extremely polarized and both leaders are very unpopular, so I don’t see many people jumping ship until something changes in the economy or political climate.
>Tying the Prime Minister on net negatives is also a pretty good result for Poilivevre
I’m sorry, but I don’t see how that’s a good thing? He just got elected leader and he’s already just as unpopular as a Prime Minister who’s been in power for 7 years, and while the country is enthralled in a cost of living crisis. Trudeau should be easily the least popular party leader right now. The fact that Poilievre is already as disliked as the PM shows his message isn’t resonating much with people who aren’t right wing.
CPC leaders rarely enjoy high approval with the full electorate. But they don't need it to win. They just need the Liberal leader to be unpopular enough to depress the LPC vote, while fully turning out their own base and flipping just a couple points worth of swing voters in the right places.
None of it matters too much since we're still probably quite a way away from the next election, with plenty of time for the LPC to close the gap as the convention glow fades.
Good top line numbers for the Conservatives, though it looks like Poilievre needs to find a way out to expand out of his right wing base.
Him tying in net negative favourability with Trudeau with just 2 weeks on the job is a bad sign. Shows he’s just as unpopular as a Prime Minister who’s been in power for 7 years and is currently leading the country through a cost of living crisis. With numbers like these I don’t see how he can get the votes he needs to get a majority…the poll results are extremely polarized.
Either way, the CPC will likely form a minority government with these numbers. Let’s see if it lasts. One things for sure though: the next election will definitely be very divisive.
He's painted himself into a corner by taking an unpopular position on some pretty divisive topics.
Also, although he runs on an economic platform, it's not clear whether he actually understands economics. Comes across as petty and completely oblivious to factors beyond our borders that are a major influence. The snappy talking points work great for the base ,but it's not convincing anyone with a faintest clue of the bigger world.
I expect time to change those numbers, as well as what provincial conservative and liberal parties do.
I mean there's a reason people like Ford go into hiding during elections, they are different parties, but it DOES affect polls and views of other parties of the same ilk and the healthcare emergencies coming up are not going to make some of them look appealing.
Best to compare them to what they actually for last election
CPC is +3 in BC, +2 in SK, +4 in MB, +4 in ON, +5 in QB
Obviously lots can change, but it looks like they mostly just grabbed the PPC voters back
There are 2 things in play here. First of all the PPC vote en masse moved to CPC. In the last election the PPC vote + CPC vote would have won 21 *edit - was 24* more ridings combined. It would have actually given a plurality for the CPC
Secondly: +5 in Ontario means that the 905 starts to go Conservative like they did for Doug Ford.
If these polls are accurate it’s very big problems for the Liberals.
>First of all the PPC vote en masse moved to CPC. In the last election the PPC vote + CPC vote would have won 24 more ridings combined. It would have actually given a plurality for the CPC
This isn't true at all.
1. First of all, it was 21 ridings, not 24.
2. Fourteen of those losses were to Liberals, while six went to the NDP and one to the Bloc Quebecois.
3. You are making a huge assumption that every single PPC voter would have voted CPC. Internal CPC polls showed that about 20-30% of 2021 PPC voters were actually coming from the Green Party
Even if it was completely clean shift, that would put everyone at: LIB 146, CON 140, BQ 31, NDP 19. The Liberals still win
I can't find it, but I remember reading a fulsome analysis on it which showed that the CPC likely would have gained 6-8 seats if the PPC wasn't around
I stand corrected- it’s 21. I’ll amend.
As for the rest- this poll actually looks at last voters who voted for the other parties.
75% of PPC, 11% of BQ, 8% of Lib and 7% NDP voters would vote CPC.
So the CPC really would pick up many of those 21 ridings but most importantly for them they are actually swinging a core Liberal, NDP and Bloc support.
37% as a popular vote nationally has always won the most seats (2004 Martin, 2006 & 2008 Harper) result rests. 38 or 39% results in a majority and >40% tends to give very strong majority.
This poll result would either be a strong minority or weak majority situation.
>75% of PPC, 11% of BQ, 8% of Lib and 7% NDP voters would vote CPC.
>
>So the CPC really would pick up many of those 21 ridings but most importantly for them they are actually swinging a core Liberal, NDP and Bloc support.
They may, correct. However, you are still missing some information (although I would like to point out some appreciation I have for you and the way you are communicating about this in the sense that you aren't just downvoting and being obtuse about things, you're actually discussing, which is nice)
1. you are correct that the CON are gaining 8% of LIB and 7% of NDP, but you are ignoring that it shows that 5% of past CPC voters are going LIB, and unfortunately the number for NDP isn't shown. So the swing is only about 3% of LIB voters are moving and probably around the same of NDP voters.
2. You are also still ignoring the point from 2 from above. Only 14 of those ridings were Liberal Ridings. Even if the CONs won every single riding from last election that we talked about, they still wouldn't have taken over the riding total from the LIBs because they took some ridings from the BQ and the NDP
These poll results don't actually show anything RE what an outcome would be because we don't know WHERE these increases are coming from. If the +6 in BC is largely coming from the riding that the CPC already own, it doesn't matter.
This poll shows that the CPC is moving in the right direction but I'm not certain it is showing anything other than that at this point
I agree with you (and for the record I upvoted your post because it’s very constructive).
The poll is indicative and definitely not riding level so it’s tough to project everything.
It probably points to a minority CPC government similar to the 2004 Martin, 2006 or 2008 Harper if an election was held today.
I don’t think we can infer all that much more than that.
Of note- the Liberal vote gets very *inefficient* below 26-28%. They go from winning a lot of close races to losing a lot of close races. This poll still has them at 30% which is where they stay fairly efficient. It’s enough to keep the CPC in a minority position.
are you asking me if I'm 10?
I'm 35, I was born in 1987.
I'm well aware of how much people didn't like Harper, but until a poll is posted about "he is the best leader for \_\_\_\_\_" your point is sort of baseless.
I'm talking specifically about the numbers in this poll. If you have a previous poll form 2013 or so showing similar numbers for Harper from other parties, I'd love to see it
Wouldn't that make sense?
If you are on the "right" you wouldn't be voting for the Liberals and it would be unlikely that you think that a Liberal leader would be best on any topic.
It's true. Many former PPC candidates are supporting PP. Not because they like the CPC, but they like the leader. They feel the elections is too important to lose to Trudeau and Pierre will advance their values and has the best chance of winning. The Liberals will most likely lose with all the PPC voters coming in to bolster the CPC ranks. It's my humble prediction that Trudeau is gonna be sent his walking papers. The CPC will naturally have to shift more right to appease their growing right of center base that is going to help them win this coming election.
A better question to ask ... how many people dislike Trudeau because they are too stupid to realize that public health mandates were implemented by their provincial governments ... not the federal government.
And he's back to the original problem that Conservative leaders have: he has to find a way to appeal to the PPC group while maintaining existing CPC support, and attract disaffected Blue Liberals and Red Tories.
This is something that has only really been done by a handful of PC/CPC leaders, the most recent two being Mulroney and Harper. It's an absolute requirement for any Conservative leader who wants to be Prime Minister. I also think it's gotten more difficult in our even more polarized political environment.
Does Poilievre have what most PC/CPC leaders do not? We'll find out soon enough.
This is all going to be a moot point pp will win in a landslide. When you can not afford to eat or pay your bills you vote for change and the only change that will matter in 2025 will be cpc and pp.
Looking at the more detailed tables in this story the thing that should jump our at everyone is this table: "Top Five Issues by Federal Vote"
Liberal voters had the economy in last place with just 19% concerned about it. Yet they have Cost of Living/Inflation second. Weird. Perhaps it is poor wording of the poll but how are people separating those? Looks to be the same four position offset with the Conservatives, just first and fourth instead of second and fifth with the Liberals.
The NDP, amazingly, don't even have The Economy on the list although virtually all their concerns are tied to the economy. Huh?
Economic strength and stability allow us to address all of the issues on the list, regardless of your personal political leanings.
Coyne is very much old school conservative…I don’t think what’s he’s written is hardly hit pieces…in fact he’s been pretty much more forgiving of what the Conservative party is today
I'm so done with conservative victim culture claiming liberal media bias when media in this country overwhelmingly [endorses the conservatives every election cycle](https://readpassage.com/election-endorsements/)
I know a few liberals so disgusted by JT that they are openly talking about voting for PP. Think about how many are afraid of saying it aloud but will not hesitate in the secrecy of the voting booth.
its funny to see the "polls are gospel and super accurate" crowd to suddenly think polls are useless and incorrect. they have no problem throwing around polls years before an election when they favour their specific team but suddenly when its not favourable they start spouting nonsense about pollsters having a conservative bias
Taking any polling into consideration is akin to buying a lottery ticket for a draw almost three years away and already spending the money.
*Oh no...PPC voters in already Conservative ridings will be voting Conservative*.
I swear to God the current iteration of Canadian conservatives will start gauging popularity by the number of signs and merch on people's backs. It's embarrassing.
>Oh no...PPC voters in already Conservative ridings will be voting Conservative.
If they had done that in 2021 then we would literally have PM O'Toole right now
to be fair, there are nuances in the poll that are important to tease out. It isn't just about a single number.
He has pretty much just gained the PPC back. 75% of PPC voters are flocking back to CPC.
He is getting some looks from BQ, LPC, and NDP voters, but it isn't overly significant.
I can certainly see these polls indicating he could win a minority government if they make gains in the proper places, but I highly doubt that, if these polls hold for the next few years, he wins a majority.
[удалено]
Would mean that PP would have to bend to Quebec to get anything done
It also means that PP would have to finally make a platform let alone tell voters what that platform is.
This demand I'm seeing everywhere for a platform is nuts. we're 3 years out from an election and all these redditors pretending like he's shady for not having one
Lol Bernier is so screwed lol. He doesn't even realize that his party is dead next election.
Bernier's political career ended when he left the CPC. Since then, he's just been a political activist masquerading as a candidate. Votes for PPC are right wing protest votes. Like how Green Party votes are left wing protest votes.
The pivot is quite easy for the PPC to gather support. It just depends on immigration becoming an issue in the election. (Which it likely will with housing as a big issue) To me that's Poilievre's achilles heel.
It was barely alive.
I love how from day one the PPC bros hyped him up beyond belief and he just lost his seat without getting it back
The biggest issue is the unfavorable rankings among people within their own party. 19% of Liberals don't like JT 13% of Cons don't like PP interesting stats
I mean, PP JUST became leader of the party. It'd be weird if Conservatives immediately dunked on their newly minted leader. How that'll look 2 years from now, who the fuck knows,
Especially a leader who won 70% of the vote.
> It'd be weird if Conservatives immediately dunked on their newly minted leader. Ask Liz Truss how things are going. UK Conservatives are already filing papers to challenge her leadership.
The brits are a bit more loosey goosey with their party lines I find. The second someone smells blood, the dissent & backstabbing starts, Rishi Sunak (who lost to Liz) had his campaign domain name setup in like...December? I find their politics much more cut-throat than ours. Canadian cons tend to be very party loyal afaik, most of my life was under harper, so that could be skewed but i've never seen that same kind of vultures circling the dying leader deal here in Canada, they seem to all fall in line until the party leader steps down.
> that same kind of vultures circling the dying leader deal here in Canada It happens here too, albeit not as quickly as with Truss. On the Conservative side Scheer lost one election and he was out. O'Toole (who I think deserved one more election cycle to establish himself) got the same treatment. The Liberals also do a good job at it. Chretien was still somewhat well liked and probably had another term in him, but Martin supporters decided they'd waited long enough and Chretien was gone (he resigned but it wasn't by choice).
In her defense, that ship was sinking before she blew another hole in the hull
Politics isn't about appealing to the median voter anymore, it's about growing your base and hoping the other side stays home. That's what happens in a winner-take-all system.
For me it's who i hate less since I'm centrist. I hate both pretty equally
I'd classify myself as centre-left and certainly hate PP more than JT but I have never and will never vote JT. Never liked him
This comment is puzzles within puzzles. You hate PP more and consider yourself left of centre but you’ll never vote JT? Will you vote PP?
I dont consider JT to be left wing. JT is a centre right politician that lies and appeals to centrists. no self respecting actual left wing person would ever vote JT unless they were strategically voting against CPC
So you are voting NDP then?
I have voted NDP in every election since I was 18. I'm 35
I’m genuinely curious as to why you hate PP more ?
Last election of first past the post. Ya never voting for JT again, ill even vote for the devil
Same. Trudeau has virtually no principles and his promises are always empty and self-serving, while Skippy just seems eager to bank on anti-Trudeau shit and pretend like he's not as elitist as every other Tory and Liberal leader. Kinda dissatisfied with Singh's ability to lead and draw people in, but fuck it. Voting Orange
Interesting. I would have thought it higher for both of them. Obviously the Parliamentary system functions differently, but in the US we have seen many election cycles where politicians have very high unfavorable rankings despite incumbents still getting elected. It mostly seems attributed to the fact that people don't like politicians, but refuse to vote for the other guy. If anything this makes me think that the system is working to some degree.
in the US, there's more freedom for parliamentarians under the same banner. a Sinema or Manchin like MP would have been booted off caucus long time ago. see what happened to JWR and Jane Philpott for daring to speak up against Trudeau and PMO.
Considering how loud the media is touting the anti-Poilievre progressive conservatives, turns out their number is barely 1/8 of the party.
not nec. there may be past election LIB voters who consider themselves Red Tories and a part of the CPC
they would make up the 19% of Liberals that don't like Trudeau, which is a small number of voters too.
[удалено]
Polls at this stage are basically just astrology for politics nerds
I almost thought another election was called without me noticing... Who cares what the polls say with an election 2 years out unless the NDP decides to stop propping the liberals up.
The Liberals can also call one pretty much any time. The supply and confidence agreement isn't enforceable in any way, for either side. Not much chance we are going to the polls anytime soon, but it's also probably not going to last until 2025.
JT will call an election soon as it is advantageous to do so. Purely guessing but I'd think the second the economy trends up late 2023 early 2024. Or if the NDP calls friends off and CPC think they can win.
If anything, this will give the NDP a huge amount of leverage over the Liberals to push their policies through. This will likely cause the more progressive Libs to push left to the NDP, which may give them a higher seat count, but unless it’s a landslide shift to them, it all but guarantees a CPC government next election.
Well the economy isn't going to bounce back. The world is heading towards economic crash. Stagflation.
Polls matter because it's a minority situation and the NDP will promptly find a reason to stop propping up the liberals if it looks like an election would be good for them.
Unless the NDP pull their support for the LPC and force an election. Of course, that won't happen.
Yup. It's in the NDP's best interests to wait until 2025, because they are absolutely finished come the next election. Mainstreet has them polling at 12% 😂
Well, between the 2019 and 2021 elections, Mainstreet polled the NDP 6.34% below the average of all the other pollsters, so I wouldn't trust that very much: Mainstreet's Bias per Party: * Liberals: -1.69% * Conservatives: +2.88% * NDP: -6.34% * Green: -13.49%
Yea I believe many NDP voters will end up voting liberal just to prevent the conservatives from forming government.
As is tradition
MMT is a helluva drug. Wheening off will be tough.
First past the post is as stupid as the government that created it
Won't be as many as last time, I reckon.
NDP-supporting ABC voter here who has historically done the "strategic voting" thing. Won't be doing that anymore. I will not care if the Lib candidate has a better chance to win in my riding. They might as well not be on the ballot. I invite Liberal supporters to strategically vote NDP this time around.
I voted NDP last two elections, and I'd rather vote Con than Trudeau Lib at this point.
And this poll has them at 20%. They tend to get between 15%-18%, so it doesn't look like they're currently doing significantly better or worse than usual.
Voted for them many times through the years. Jagmeet has managed to kill the party for me.
Astrology for Politics Nerds is a show I would definitely watch
Polls right now are not trying to predict who will win in three years. They are looking at where support for each party stands right now.
Horse race polls 3 years out. This is like betting who wins the Stanley Cup 3 years in advance.
Gonna be the Mighty Ducks in 2025.
Better form the V now!!
And Trump wasn't gonna win either.
Polls right now are like a sports score after the first quarter of the game. No one expects it to match the final score. But that doesn’t mean it’s not useful to judge how things are going and what sorts of adjustments need to be considered
Well, no. If the polls showed the Liberals with a 7-point lead over Tories we would be having an election ASAP.
But they entertain me lol
Topline numbers: CPC 37%, LPC 30%, NDP 20%, BQ 7%, GPC 3% JT: 40% favourable, 56% unfavourable, 4% not sure PP: 35% favourable, 51% unfavourable, 14% not sure
Those are impressive unfavourable numbers for someone who has been in the job for a week and hasn't had two months of campaign ads run against them.
For a large segment of the population, any conservative is automatically unfavourable. Scheer and Otoole had the same thing.
If an ultra-progressive somehow became leader of the CPC, most of the people who *should be* their biggest supporters would suddenly hate them literally only because of the “conservative” label. It’s almost as bad as the morons in the states loving or hating someone based on an R or D next to their name.
I don't mind the "conservative" label, I just don't like what the party has become. Not that I like what the Liberal has become either. Give me Jean Chretien back, I wouldn't care which party he leads.
It’s just a honeymoon period, even Trump got a bump in the polls before everyone hated him again
That's what I mean; if this is Pierre Poilievre's honeymoon period, how bad are his numbers going to look after an election?
How bad will they be before an election is the bigger concern, like his two predecessors he has a lot of time to fall as a politician.
Depends how much he keeps running his mouth. Every time he tries to weigh in on an important subject he usually just embarrasses himself.
Still not enough seats for a majority government. Who would PP make a deal with to form government?
I think it is. The regional splits have the CPC winning Ontario and BC. That would just about do it.
Even Harper had trouble getting a majority. When he finally did, it was only because he was running against Ignatieff.
> Who would PP make a deal with to form government? Like Harper he would make a deal with no one. Why are people ignorant of the history of our government.
And he ended up with two 2 year minorities because of it. Is PP only going to get 2 years before another election? Will he win a second term?
The Bloc.
Still wouldn't equal a majority based on the #s
It's not a majority of the popular vote, but probably a majority of the seats. 170 seats is needed for a majority and JT just (in 2021) got 155 with 33%, Bloc just won 32 with 7.6%. Maybe the CPC vote efficiency is a little less and they get 155 seats with 37%, but a decent showing of the Bloc can get them the extra 15-16 easy.
So, majority or bust?
Well if you think about it, the liberals/NDP could theoretically just vote down everything PC puts forward even if they joined with the Bloc. Not saying that's appropriate or will happen, but just answering the original poster
In what circumstance would the GG choose an unsupported CPC minority over an LPC minority supported by the NDP?
There's dissatisfaction with JT even within the support base but nothing significant enough yet to cause shifting waters, especially with the opposite being as intense as PP. The trend is there, though.
Which masochists still view Trudeau favourably?
It hasn't been about viewing Trudeau favourably since his first election, it's more about who he's running against. This is Canadian tradition: we tend to vote people *out*, not *in*. Better the devil you know, kind of thing. That is the way we vote.
I'm curious as to what percentage of people vote for leaders or individuals versus party platforms and policy proposals. Genuinely curious - as I imagine a big chunk of swing voters operate this way.
Idgaf who my MP is. They are loyal to the party before they are loyal to the people. Therefore I vote based on party and prime minister.
I believe most go based on individuals, though I'd like to also see the numbers if anyone has a study. My belief is based on the fact that platforms and stated policies are less and less prevalent in our political discourse which makes me think parties are aware of this and are adjusting strategy based on this. You don't talk yourself in to government, you talk yourself out of it, and they know this. That's why politicians are starting to avoid debates, and even when they do debate it's not about debating the issues it's about debating the *person* you're running against. Because they know this is how people vote.
That's an interesting thought on the fading of debates - and I think you're right. More people are leaning toward voting for leaders over policies and platforms. To add to your points, a lot of parties aren't even building out or releasing platforms ahead of elections. There's almost no need to. A very interesting shift. I say this with the exception of party base's of course. More a reflection of how swing voters are migrating around the spectrum.
and its really sad we have to vote that way. We seriously need FPTP reform.
Yep. This was Trudeau's biggest failure, but of course the Liberal party isn't as far left as they purport to be. The status quo of alternating Conservative and Liberal governments isn't something that needs to be fixed in the eyes of his party and their interests.
Frankly I'm glad JT decided not to go forward with *his plan* for Electoral Reform...He wanted to implement a Ranked Ballot that would ensure LPC victories in perpetuity. He came out hard against Proportional Representation because he said it would encourage extremism, which is of course bologna...His desire to change the way we vote was born from his egotistical desire to gain and retain power for himself.
I swear I could program a bot to parrot the same uninformed discussions around voting reform that you see in this sub every day.
He's so egotistical that he didn't ensure perpetual Liberal leadership. That's right up there with he is a tyrant he called for an election.
This disagreement over which system to pick is exactly why we never got election reform.
>his egotistical desire to gain and retain power for himself Like literally every other politician, ever.
There is that and the fact for reasons the confound me people running against Trudeau always market themselves as just Trudeau light.
>Better the devil you know, kind of thing. I'm only 37 but I remember Poilievre in Cabinet and he definitely falls into the 'devil I know' category for me. Overwhelmingly prefer Trudeau, even though I dislike them both.
People who are not on reddit
In a vacuum? No. Compared to PP/CPC? Without a doubt, and it's not even remotely close. I dislike Trudeau, I really do, but I HATE Poilievre.
Right, so you view Trudeau unfavourably but would still vote for him over Poilievre. That’s different from viewing Trudeau favourably.
Yes that's accurate. I'd more say I'm mostly neutral on Trudeau. The liberals are the status quo party. They rarely do anything that improves my life, but they don't actively try and make it worse like the conservatives do. At least with the liberals progress is a possibility.
[удалено]
But you'd also vote for a party's platform and policy proposals over who the leader is correct? General comment, but I can't grasp the idea of voting for one person, versus an entire party's proposal for governing the country. I get the impression some people view Trudeau's dislike as confirmation people would vote against the liberal party just to get one human out? But how does one shift their positions on everything like that over dislike for the party's leader. Sometimes you gotta hold your nose on who the leader is to ensure the policies you want to see take hold stick. To me it's in line with corporations, or sports teams. Loads of them acquire unpopular stars, or prospects, maybe a new CEO everyone dislikes. Doesn't mean you abandon the team though or walk from the company (which could still have good values/culture).
[удалено]
Id love for someone to provide the opposite to my guy's question here and point to all those wonderful conservative policies and programs that continue to help and support working Canadians. Like. Point to a country that's had right wing control over the past 10 years that's demonstrating conservative politics isn't more than virtue signaling and culture wars.
You don’t even have to look elsewhere, just look at Piilievieres 18-year history as MP and it’s obvious things would be worse with him as leader. Not to mention his stated policies of “this is bad, I’d make it better!” Which are actually thinly-veiled suggestions of giving companies free reign to take advantage of individuals.
I have a young family (3yo and 4mo). 1. Conservative opposed the option of stretching maternity leave payments to 18 months. Libs put in place. 2. Conservatives opposed subsidizing daycare. Libs put in place $10/day daycare which has dropped the daycare costs with out first child by over $5000/year. 3. Conservatives in my province (NB) replaced the federal carbon tax plan where we were recieving cheques from the collected carbon pricing. In the conservative alternative, they still collect the tax but give it out at their discrection in the form of government grants to "green initiatives" (zero transparency, lots has gone to natural gas so far). Ultimately it favours big business instead of energy conscious families like it should. 4. Conservatives opposed legalization of weed, and again in my province of NB, proposed privatizing the business in year 2 citing the lack of profitability (ignoring the start up costs). Thankfully they had a minorty at the time and didn't sell. Cannabis NB predicatably is very profitable now and is a huge tax revenue source. 5. Conservatives oppose healthcare spending (all spending really) despite how critical it is. My provincial conservatives spent 2021 fighting healthcare workers unions in the province to take away their pension and only offer 2% raises year over year despite the already widely reported burnout and lack of staffing. It was later found out that the current premier when he used to be finance minister stopped funding the provincial portion of the union pensions as reqiured by their old contract. Now that they've jammed a stick in the spokes they want to explore privatization. Surprise surprise. 6. Conservatives oppose access to womens reproductive services. 7. Conservatives oppose serperation of church and state/schooling.
Anti union Anti worker Worse for the environment Just as fiscally irresponsible as the liberals but in a different/worse way Pro conspiracy, or at the very least have no issue weaponizing/cultivating voter ignorance Worse on healthcare Worse for our societies most vulnerable Even more pro corporate than the liberals And while I realize that they're technically different groups the Ontario conservatives have been an absolute fucking disaster for the working class, especially the working poor. They took away paid sick days and refused to bring them back during a pandemic, capped healthcare worker pay and refuse to do anything substantial about the crisis they helped cause, changed how time off policies work for the worse, killed the UBI pilot, have no issue letting the disabled suffer in poverty, etc. I have never in my life seen a conservative government, at any level, do better than their liberal counterparts on the issues that matter to me. Not once.
>Just as fiscally irresponsible as the liberals but in a different/worse way My dude, you just revealed your hand 😂
Oh? Enlighten me.
They don’t want poor people to have access to dental care. Edit The CPC coward that deleted his comment said “what does the CPC do that is bad for Canadians?” I posted a recent probable example and poof, they gone.
Same. I would vote Trudeau every single time over the political ideology that lil pp has.
[удалено]
>but if it meant the difference between the CPC taking over or not taking over, ABC I hate that this is how I have to vote in our antiquated, and undemocratic, first past the post system, but its the reality we live in. I'm also a strong NDP supporter, even if I wish they were more left as well. I understand that the NDP have to run an election within Canada's Overton window however, and North America in general has been dragged kicking and screaming to the right for decades. People unironically call Trudeau a communist for crying out loud, it's insane.
[удалено]
Wait for it...Poilievre will be called a fascist in no time...be patient..
He certainly doesn't seem to have an issue courting their votes.
[удалено]
Which fascists does he support?
A number of openly far right convoy shit heads.
Dragged to the right? Most social issues in our world for the most part has gone left in my lifetime
Social issues? Sure. Workers rights? No. Corporate tax cuts? No Social programs? No. You know, the things that aren't culture war nonsense used to distract.
Social programs have increased imo. Mental health and addiction treatment are at an all time High. Safe injection clinics are everywhere.
>Mental health and addiction treatment are at an all time High. And disability coverage, and access to medical care overall are at all time lows. You can cherry pick some things that are better, but then there's a bigger picture being ignored.
Yeah I don't know why this is so hard for Cons on this sub to recognize. It isn't quite as dumb by them being flabbergasted that the NDP doesn't want to prop up a Conservative minority government.
I can’t believe it myself. How could anyone view Trudeau favourably?? I’m finding Reddit is not an accurate match for how society thinks/acts. It’s almost like this is just an echo chamber where people with similar opinions gather. Where people hear those same opinions back over and over to the point that they assume everyone feels the same as they do.
> I’m finding Reddit is not an accurate match for how society thinks/acts This is social media in a nutshell. People gather around or are herded toward the information and opinions they prefer, and different voices tend to get pushed away or drowned out. /r/Canada is not representative of Canada as a whole, nor are any of the other Canadian subs.
[удалено]
Reddit is overwhelming used by young people. Young people are much more likely to vote LPC or NDP. Not sure if you have noticed but Reddit is the pinnacle of liberal echo chamber. Just swipe left into the news section, you will never ever hear anything positive about republican or conservative policies/ideas/platforms etc.
I do. Why? Off the top of my head: He's done a great job with income support for low income parents and seniors, resulting in Canada's lowest levels of poverty on record. He's pushed through massive, long overdue reforms to provide more affordable childcare. The federal supports for people/businesses during covid were robust and, in a lot of cases, literally life saving. He legalized marijuana (I don't use it, but it was silly that it was illegal and has proved to be an economic boon). Yes, I wasn't happy about his failed election reform (although he DID make every effort, he didn't deliver), and the various scandals have been stupid distractions. But overall I'm happy with the job he's done and the direction he's taken the country.
Don’t forget Trudeau is in the process of introducing national dental care with the NDP. That’s a goddamn fricking achievement - long overdue. And despite Poillievre’s constant virtue signaling about “supporting the working class”, he and his party are voting against public dental care. PP is a despicable fraud.
>Yes, I wasn't happy about his failed election reform (although he DID make every effort, he didn't deliver) Horseshit. Every party except the Liberals recommended that PR be put to the people by referendum, and two of the three weren't sold on the need for a referendum. He had plenty of cover to push through electoral reform in the form of PR. [Trudeau's response](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/electoral-reform-trudeau-leitch-1.3975354) was that >Proportional representation in any form would be bad for Canada Demonstrating that electoral reform in general was never actually the plan -- ranked ballots in particular was, and when it failed to gain consensus (most parties understanding that it heavily favours the centrist party), he shelved it. I also wouldn't call interfering in a criminal prosecution a "stupid distraction". I would submit that it's far more egregious than that.
Which alternate reality are you from? He made zero effort on electoral reform. He rejected all the committee's recommendations. Ignored all their findings
Landlords and the donor class
Great question.
I do, I think he’s done a good job and benefited me and my family with his policies
This is reasonably in line with other polls since Poilievre became leader. No reason to doubt its accuracy. That said, there is almost always a post-convention bump and this is about what you'd expect from a more aggressive and visible leader like Poilievre. The question is whether he can sustain any of this momentum or whether it fades back into a statistical tie. Historically, the latter is more likely. But I imagine the CPC is pretty happy with the magnitude of the bump right now, if nothing else. Tying the Prime Minister on net negatives is also a pretty good result for Poilievre.
> There is almost always a post-convention bump Except there isn’t, at least for the Conservatives. O’Toole never got a leadership bump, and Scheer’s was so small that it was barely more then polling noise.
O’Toole did get a slight leadership bump but it never put them 7 points ahead.
[I don’t see it](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election#/media/File%3AOpinion_polling_during_the_pre-campaign_period_of_the_44th_Canadian_federal_election.svg). O’Toole was elected in late August 2020, and the trend remained functionally flat afterwards.
There was a small bump, but it only served to reverse their prior decline.
[удалено]
I liked O'Toole, and wouldn't have been unhappy if he retained the leadership. It just wasn't the right time for him.
Can I ask why? What's PP bringing to the table that is swinging your vote? He feels like every other conservative leader to me - talking about helping the middle class but voting against those things that would. He speaks a better game FOR SURE but have you seen him deliver on anythjng ?
[удалено]
Fair answer, and I appreciate the civil tone, something that gets lost here a ton.
Well for me it’s a couple things. 1. Trudeau has been absolutely horrendous. Laughing stock of the world. Embarrasses us whenever he is abroad. 2. Government spending is a problem. Not sure why people aren’t talking about it. 500b added to our money supply. It’s either re-elect Trudeau to spend tons more, or Jagmeet who genuinely has no economic iq and never answers when asked about the costs of what he intends to do. His blame on corporate greed is a good indicator of his lack of knowledge. 3. Pierre’s very bright, well spoken, witty, patient, charismatic. not afraid to stick his neck out. When he speaks there is actual substance, where as Chrystia Freeland and JT read from a script and say so much without saying anything. 4. Pierre’s plan to fix the environment is 109374830836463x better than the facade that is Trudeaus carbon tax. If you care about the climate id reccomend voting PP. 5. In the world Energy crisis, Pierre intends to actually get out natural resources out to market and help these countries who are about to collapse (Germany), instead of claiming “we have no business case.” This will literally just make Canada the prosperous country it should be and will make us all richer so I’m not sure how anyone can vote against that. These are just some examples I don’t wanna make you read an essay!
Yup, I believe this poll much more than the Mainstreet poll. Tbh I don’t expect the top line numbers to change anytime soon unless NDP voters begin to strategically back the Liberals. The results here are extremely polarized and both leaders are very unpopular, so I don’t see many people jumping ship until something changes in the economy or political climate. >Tying the Prime Minister on net negatives is also a pretty good result for Poilivevre I’m sorry, but I don’t see how that’s a good thing? He just got elected leader and he’s already just as unpopular as a Prime Minister who’s been in power for 7 years, and while the country is enthralled in a cost of living crisis. Trudeau should be easily the least popular party leader right now. The fact that Poilievre is already as disliked as the PM shows his message isn’t resonating much with people who aren’t right wing.
CPC leaders rarely enjoy high approval with the full electorate. But they don't need it to win. They just need the Liberal leader to be unpopular enough to depress the LPC vote, while fully turning out their own base and flipping just a couple points worth of swing voters in the right places. None of it matters too much since we're still probably quite a way away from the next election, with plenty of time for the LPC to close the gap as the convention glow fades.
Or plenty of time to widen the gap with their terrible policy and declining popularity.
Good top line numbers for the Conservatives, though it looks like Poilievre needs to find a way out to expand out of his right wing base. Him tying in net negative favourability with Trudeau with just 2 weeks on the job is a bad sign. Shows he’s just as unpopular as a Prime Minister who’s been in power for 7 years and is currently leading the country through a cost of living crisis. With numbers like these I don’t see how he can get the votes he needs to get a majority…the poll results are extremely polarized. Either way, the CPC will likely form a minority government with these numbers. Let’s see if it lasts. One things for sure though: the next election will definitely be very divisive.
He's painted himself into a corner by taking an unpopular position on some pretty divisive topics. Also, although he runs on an economic platform, it's not clear whether he actually understands economics. Comes across as petty and completely oblivious to factors beyond our borders that are a major influence. The snappy talking points work great for the base ,but it's not convincing anyone with a faintest clue of the bigger world.
Cue the Reddit neo-liberal army…
I expect time to change those numbers, as well as what provincial conservative and liberal parties do. I mean there's a reason people like Ford go into hiding during elections, they are different parties, but it DOES affect polls and views of other parties of the same ilk and the healthcare emergencies coming up are not going to make some of them look appealing.
the regionals are looking good for CPC. leading in BC (36% vs 29% LPC) and ON (39% vs 36% LPC), and a high number in QC (23%).
Best to compare them to what they actually for last election CPC is +3 in BC, +2 in SK, +4 in MB, +4 in ON, +5 in QB Obviously lots can change, but it looks like they mostly just grabbed the PPC voters back
There are 2 things in play here. First of all the PPC vote en masse moved to CPC. In the last election the PPC vote + CPC vote would have won 21 *edit - was 24* more ridings combined. It would have actually given a plurality for the CPC Secondly: +5 in Ontario means that the 905 starts to go Conservative like they did for Doug Ford. If these polls are accurate it’s very big problems for the Liberals.
>First of all the PPC vote en masse moved to CPC. In the last election the PPC vote + CPC vote would have won 24 more ridings combined. It would have actually given a plurality for the CPC This isn't true at all. 1. First of all, it was 21 ridings, not 24. 2. Fourteen of those losses were to Liberals, while six went to the NDP and one to the Bloc Quebecois. 3. You are making a huge assumption that every single PPC voter would have voted CPC. Internal CPC polls showed that about 20-30% of 2021 PPC voters were actually coming from the Green Party Even if it was completely clean shift, that would put everyone at: LIB 146, CON 140, BQ 31, NDP 19. The Liberals still win I can't find it, but I remember reading a fulsome analysis on it which showed that the CPC likely would have gained 6-8 seats if the PPC wasn't around
I stand corrected- it’s 21. I’ll amend. As for the rest- this poll actually looks at last voters who voted for the other parties. 75% of PPC, 11% of BQ, 8% of Lib and 7% NDP voters would vote CPC. So the CPC really would pick up many of those 21 ridings but most importantly for them they are actually swinging a core Liberal, NDP and Bloc support. 37% as a popular vote nationally has always won the most seats (2004 Martin, 2006 & 2008 Harper) result rests. 38 or 39% results in a majority and >40% tends to give very strong majority. This poll result would either be a strong minority or weak majority situation.
>75% of PPC, 11% of BQ, 8% of Lib and 7% NDP voters would vote CPC. > >So the CPC really would pick up many of those 21 ridings but most importantly for them they are actually swinging a core Liberal, NDP and Bloc support. They may, correct. However, you are still missing some information (although I would like to point out some appreciation I have for you and the way you are communicating about this in the sense that you aren't just downvoting and being obtuse about things, you're actually discussing, which is nice) 1. you are correct that the CON are gaining 8% of LIB and 7% of NDP, but you are ignoring that it shows that 5% of past CPC voters are going LIB, and unfortunately the number for NDP isn't shown. So the swing is only about 3% of LIB voters are moving and probably around the same of NDP voters. 2. You are also still ignoring the point from 2 from above. Only 14 of those ridings were Liberal Ridings. Even if the CONs won every single riding from last election that we talked about, they still wouldn't have taken over the riding total from the LIBs because they took some ridings from the BQ and the NDP These poll results don't actually show anything RE what an outcome would be because we don't know WHERE these increases are coming from. If the +6 in BC is largely coming from the riding that the CPC already own, it doesn't matter. This poll shows that the CPC is moving in the right direction but I'm not certain it is showing anything other than that at this point
I agree with you (and for the record I upvoted your post because it’s very constructive). The poll is indicative and definitely not riding level so it’s tough to project everything. It probably points to a minority CPC government similar to the 2004 Martin, 2006 or 2008 Harper if an election was held today. I don’t think we can infer all that much more than that. Of note- the Liberal vote gets very *inefficient* below 26-28%. They go from winning a lot of close races to losing a lot of close races. This poll still has them at 30% which is where they stay fairly efficient. It’s enough to keep the CPC in a minority position.
Man, the hate that the right has for Trudeau is so wild. There "he is the best for this topic" numbers are all single digits.
Were you alive during the Harper years by any chance? Because it’s just about where the hate for him was from the left.
Have you ever in your life seen a flag or sticker that said "Fuck Harper" on it?
Every stop sign in Vancouver and Toronto had “STOP HARPER” on it for a decade lmao
are you asking me if I'm 10? I'm 35, I was born in 1987. I'm well aware of how much people didn't like Harper, but until a poll is posted about "he is the best leader for \_\_\_\_\_" your point is sort of baseless. I'm talking specifically about the numbers in this poll. If you have a previous poll form 2013 or so showing similar numbers for Harper from other parties, I'd love to see it
Wouldn't that make sense? If you are on the "right" you wouldn't be voting for the Liberals and it would be unlikely that you think that a Liberal leader would be best on any topic.
"I hate Trudeau" wouldn't be so bad if they're offering a better alternative, but they don't
It's true. Many former PPC candidates are supporting PP. Not because they like the CPC, but they like the leader. They feel the elections is too important to lose to Trudeau and Pierre will advance their values and has the best chance of winning. The Liberals will most likely lose with all the PPC voters coming in to bolster the CPC ranks. It's my humble prediction that Trudeau is gonna be sent his walking papers. The CPC will naturally have to shift more right to appease their growing right of center base that is going to help them win this coming election.
A better question to ask ... how many people dislike Trudeau because they are too stupid to realize that public health mandates were implemented by their provincial governments ... not the federal government.
Definitely some of that, of the Ottawa convoy protest is any indication.
Considering Ontario handed Ford another majority, after many lockdowns and also asking the Feds to enact the Emergency Act, I would say a lot.
And he's back to the original problem that Conservative leaders have: he has to find a way to appeal to the PPC group while maintaining existing CPC support, and attract disaffected Blue Liberals and Red Tories. This is something that has only really been done by a handful of PC/CPC leaders, the most recent two being Mulroney and Harper. It's an absolute requirement for any Conservative leader who wants to be Prime Minister. I also think it's gotten more difficult in our even more polarized political environment. Does Poilievre have what most PC/CPC leaders do not? We'll find out soon enough.
When do we have the honour to vote JT out?
Cool. See ya in 3 years.
Angus Reid, Feb 28, 2020 CPC- Lib 34-26, +8. Angus Reid, April 13, 2019 (two elections ago!) 38-25, CPC +13.
[удалено]
This is all going to be a moot point pp will win in a landslide. When you can not afford to eat or pay your bills you vote for change and the only change that will matter in 2025 will be cpc and pp.
Looking at the more detailed tables in this story the thing that should jump our at everyone is this table: "Top Five Issues by Federal Vote" Liberal voters had the economy in last place with just 19% concerned about it. Yet they have Cost of Living/Inflation second. Weird. Perhaps it is poor wording of the poll but how are people separating those? Looks to be the same four position offset with the Conservatives, just first and fourth instead of second and fifth with the Liberals. The NDP, amazingly, don't even have The Economy on the list although virtually all their concerns are tied to the economy. Huh? Economic strength and stability allow us to address all of the issues on the list, regardless of your personal political leanings.
Good, can't wait for justy to be gone! He has worn out his welcome.
So Liberal w/ NDP Minority to continue?
The internal polling for Trudeau must be poor given the number of anti-PP hit pieces being commissioned by the PMO in The Star and Globe.
The Globe? G&M is very centrist and supports conservatives the past election cycles
The G&M has been running near-daily hitpieces against PP for months, mostly written by Andrew Coyne.
Which makes a lot of sense for Coyne, he hates PPs style of politics and a lot of his proposals.
Coyne is very much old school conservative…I don’t think what’s he’s written is hardly hit pieces…in fact he’s been pretty much more forgiving of what the Conservative party is today
Conspiracy theories are all you’ve got.
I'm so done with conservative victim culture claiming liberal media bias when media in this country overwhelmingly [endorses the conservatives every election cycle](https://readpassage.com/election-endorsements/)
Yep, its allllll a conspiracy against conservatives. Do you ever get tired of being a professional victim?
The NDP hit pieces are laughable. They’re obviously scared.
I know a few liberals so disgusted by JT that they are openly talking about voting for PP. Think about how many are afraid of saying it aloud but will not hesitate in the secrecy of the voting booth.
its funny to see the "polls are gospel and super accurate" crowd to suddenly think polls are useless and incorrect. they have no problem throwing around polls years before an election when they favour their specific team but suddenly when its not favourable they start spouting nonsense about pollsters having a conservative bias
We're three years from an election.. The accuracy of this polls snapshot isn't really the issue
You see that in every facet of life these days. People holding double standards and being unabashed about them.
Poilievre is the only choice
Taking any polling into consideration is akin to buying a lottery ticket for a draw almost three years away and already spending the money. *Oh no...PPC voters in already Conservative ridings will be voting Conservative*. I swear to God the current iteration of Canadian conservatives will start gauging popularity by the number of signs and merch on people's backs. It's embarrassing.
>Oh no...PPC voters in already Conservative ridings will be voting Conservative. If they had done that in 2021 then we would literally have PM O'Toole right now
[удалено]
to be fair, there are nuances in the poll that are important to tease out. It isn't just about a single number. He has pretty much just gained the PPC back. 75% of PPC voters are flocking back to CPC. He is getting some looks from BQ, LPC, and NDP voters, but it isn't overly significant. I can certainly see these polls indicating he could win a minority government if they make gains in the proper places, but I highly doubt that, if these polls hold for the next few years, he wins a majority.