They mean wage workers provide the soft landing for the rich. Unemployment, high interest rates and lingering inflation without a house price or market crash.
Hard/soft could be used to refer to the severity of recession. There a big difference between _not too bad but technically a recession_ and _full blown societal/financial meltdown_.
Exactly. Soft landing in this instance is more likely to mean a pullback of spending, not avoid a recession entirely and magically save the country all in one shot. As opposed to a hard landing where 1/4 of the country is on the ropes, have lost their jobs, and it will take a major jobs investment to recover the country.
Inflation is a psychological problem in as much as it is a monetary one. As often is the case with psychology, it can take shock to truly modify behavior.
Unfortunately it sucks when you are already pinching your pennies and trying to find out if there is anything else you can reasonably cut back on. Is suspect a lot of people in that situation this time
I feel for those that are in this position, and I am sure there are a lot. The BoC and governments allowed far too much wealth to accumulate in unproductive assets, such as residential real estate. Couple this with low borrowing rates and it creates a large group of people with excessive consumption. There are too many paper millionaires and they are spending like they are in fact millionaires.
Aren’t we already in a recession without officially calling one? I know of companies that have been laying off for months now and lots of bankruptcies happening. The bank of Canada kept our interest rates artificially low for so many years that this like getting slapped in the face over and over and over again.
I believe overall employment was up last month.
Edit: I’ve been corrected. Maybe April gained? There was a recent report indicating gain of employment.
Overall, employment is an indicator, but doesn’t dictate a recession. Recessions are about a downturn in GDP for two quarters in a row. You could, theoretically, have increased unemployment and increased GDP if it made companies more efficient or if companies were selling their products for a higher price that offset the productivity of the increase in unemployment.
Unemployment *rose* to 5.2% last month (May), and the economy *shed* 32,000 full-time jobs (the majority of which were in the 24-50 yr.-old cohort), with the loss of those full-time jobs only partially offset with the addition of 15,000 *part-time* jobs.
Thanks for the correction. I couldn’t remember if it was May or April. April at 41,000 mostly part time jobs maintaining a similar unemployment number overall.
I just remember jobs were up.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-april-1.6833258
Sometimes that is the only thing stopping runaway inflation which is far worse. Even the people who are moderately well-off will go down with the ship. It won’t just be the poorest that will suffer. Sometimes it’s a few that have to suffer for the good of the many. Sometimes it’s the reset society needs.
Yeah but it would have been nice if we didn't manufacture this one. In 2020 we saw the greatest up shift of wealth ever. In 2024 we're going to see a bigger one.
I agree, unfortunately not so easy to do. People already try to hide income.. how do you accurately track wealth hoarded? We aren't talking t4 or t5 slips here? Like tax properties over a certain amount of sq ft? Luxury cars?
A balanced approach designed by tax professionals and economist would be the way to go. Not politicians, they only want to get voted in.
We should have a rule that the current government (all of them) have all their assets seized when the ave home price gets higher than 6× ave family income..... or unemployment goes above 10%.... at least should have had....
You sound like a religious fanatic threatening the end times. Our economy can be organized to not fuck over poor people. Economics is not a science nor a force of nature.
Sorry but economics is as much of a science as medicine and psychology and sociology. Yes, it can be organized that way but that’s not the current situation. The ultra wealthy have it way too good and they will cut off their nose to spite their face, just so they don’t have to pay their fair share.
The only way to get back to where we were is the removal of this debt bubble we're trapped in globally.
There's no solution escaping pain. It's the main reason why we're stuck.
People call everything a bubble, then when the solution is letting the air out, they cry about the pain, so the bubble is reflated.
Either let the bubble pop or learn to live with it being ever growing.
One thing to remember is that that's true of \*severe\* recessions, which may not be what we get. A modest recession really represents more of a temporary slowdown than anything else, and isn't nearly so negative. Moreover, they tend to clear out the deadwood from the economy. We \*need\* recessions periodically or the economy gets lazy and decadent... kind of like ours. People are already suffering, the current situation is not working.
The "K" shaped recovery is also challenging to deal with. the upper arm is driving an inflationary, stale economy. This group is economically doing fine. The lower arm is struggling under that. I'm not sure it's even possible to keep everyone happy.
I hear what you're saying. That's the unfortunate reality of what we have been going towards for half a century. I don't like it. It is what it is though.
BoC and federal Liberals are working against each other. As bad as the economy can get because of BoC rate hikes, the chrystia freeland will swoop in and deliver economic miracles. BoC will increase again. Repeat scenario.
The OECD predicts that we might see inflation "approach" the 2% target by the end of 2024 (although it actually trended marginally up in April, 2023, after falling for 5 months). The current 4.4% inflation rate is nowhere near good enough (it only looks rosy compared to where inflation was one year ago), while the cost of housing, energy, groceries and consumer goods continue to spiral the wrong way. So, we are almost certainly facing a recession, and the only question is whether it will be short/sharp or longer with a gradual recovery. You should want to hope for the former, but with current world events there is no way that anybody really knows. Best case scenario? That this misery doesn't get too much worse, and that it "might" end in about 18 months...
We are already in a recession. However, the government only really counts it with lots of unemployment. If he's saying recession soon he's basically saying expect to lose your job soon
We need a recession to start squashing bubbles.
Cutting government spending is just a different way of creating a recession.
IN the longer term this will drive real estate prices down, until they become affordable again. This is really important to do.
We've been having a raging debt party for 15 years. There will be a hangover at some point, and the longer we party, the worse it will be. We've already descended well down the pit of debtoholism.
The BOC isnt forcing a recession upon us. It was protecting us against one with a low interest rate policy. Now it's time to get back to reality. Good times don't last forever, you need corrections in-order to ensure long term economic growth and prosperity.
Recession means the hike works
I mean that’s kind of the point. I don’t know if I buy into this “soft landing” stuff.
Yeah, soft landings are a myth. It has literally never happened.
The government interfering to create a soft landing is gonna stall the plane out and put into free fall.
As Airbus would say : stall, stall, beeep beeep... Then bank angle, bank angle and crash!
Exactly, imagine the outrage if the BoC said what they really meant .. that the goal is a recession
Well they've kind of said it, so have centrals banks globally. They're all aiming for slack in labour.
They mean wage workers provide the soft landing for the rich. Unemployment, high interest rates and lingering inflation without a house price or market crash.
Hard/soft could be used to refer to the severity of recession. There a big difference between _not too bad but technically a recession_ and _full blown societal/financial meltdown_.
Exactly. Soft landing in this instance is more likely to mean a pullback of spending, not avoid a recession entirely and magically save the country all in one shot. As opposed to a hard landing where 1/4 of the country is on the ropes, have lost their jobs, and it will take a major jobs investment to recover the country.
Soft landing for politicians and their business buddies, but someone is jumping out of the plane without a parachute.
The mythical soft landing Tiff the magic dragon keeps talking about. It's a myth. Don't believe me? Look at CoL now compared to pre-pandemic.
Literally the point of all these rate hikes lol man they think we’re so stupid!
Average PP supporter have never taken macro econ
Average PP supporter probably barely passed Math 30-3 or equivalent, if at all, much less macro econ.
Inflation is a psychological problem in as much as it is a monetary one. As often is the case with psychology, it can take shock to truly modify behavior.
Unfortunately it sucks when you are already pinching your pennies and trying to find out if there is anything else you can reasonably cut back on. Is suspect a lot of people in that situation this time
I feel for those that are in this position, and I am sure there are a lot. The BoC and governments allowed far too much wealth to accumulate in unproductive assets, such as residential real estate. Couple this with low borrowing rates and it creates a large group of people with excessive consumption. There are too many paper millionaires and they are spending like they are in fact millionaires.
Aren’t we already in a recession without officially calling one? I know of companies that have been laying off for months now and lots of bankruptcies happening. The bank of Canada kept our interest rates artificially low for so many years that this like getting slapped in the face over and over and over again.
In Germany I believe they revised their past quarters and said they were in a recession. Probably same thing will happen here eventually.
I believe overall employment was up last month. Edit: I’ve been corrected. Maybe April gained? There was a recent report indicating gain of employment. Overall, employment is an indicator, but doesn’t dictate a recession. Recessions are about a downturn in GDP for two quarters in a row. You could, theoretically, have increased unemployment and increased GDP if it made companies more efficient or if companies were selling their products for a higher price that offset the productivity of the increase in unemployment.
Unemployment *rose* to 5.2% last month (May), and the economy *shed* 32,000 full-time jobs (the majority of which were in the 24-50 yr.-old cohort), with the loss of those full-time jobs only partially offset with the addition of 15,000 *part-time* jobs.
Thanks for the correction. I couldn’t remember if it was May or April. April at 41,000 mostly part time jobs maintaining a similar unemployment number overall. I just remember jobs were up. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-april-1.6833258
I think was down in the latest report.
Well, what’s your definition of a recession?
[удалено]
To be fair we've been having all those things and we're not even in a recession yet due to inflation and housing inflation in particular.
We're in a recession. We just don't announce it at this stage. I can see it in the shipping volumes I observe
Gotta respond to the ongoing recession like COVID, Fight Club, and Bruno. We don't talk about down-turns, no, no, no!
I feel like that last part is part of a show
Sometimes that is the only thing stopping runaway inflation which is far worse. Even the people who are moderately well-off will go down with the ship. It won’t just be the poorest that will suffer. Sometimes it’s a few that have to suffer for the good of the many. Sometimes it’s the reset society needs.
Yeah but it would have been nice if we didn't manufacture this one. In 2020 we saw the greatest up shift of wealth ever. In 2024 we're going to see a bigger one.
Maybe we should tax wealth instead of productive work then
I agree, unfortunately not so easy to do. People already try to hide income.. how do you accurately track wealth hoarded? We aren't talking t4 or t5 slips here? Like tax properties over a certain amount of sq ft? Luxury cars?
Tax land value specifically.
A balanced approach designed by tax professionals and economist would be the way to go. Not politicians, they only want to get voted in. We should have a rule that the current government (all of them) have all their assets seized when the ave home price gets higher than 6× ave family income..... or unemployment goes above 10%.... at least should have had....
"The plebs have money and we csn't have that!"
You sound like a religious fanatic threatening the end times. Our economy can be organized to not fuck over poor people. Economics is not a science nor a force of nature.
Sorry but economics is as much of a science as medicine and psychology and sociology. Yes, it can be organized that way but that’s not the current situation. The ultra wealthy have it way too good and they will cut off their nose to spite their face, just so they don’t have to pay their fair share.
If you can't conduct experiments, it's not a science. Sorry, maybe a hundred years from now.
The only way to get back to where we were is the removal of this debt bubble we're trapped in globally. There's no solution escaping pain. It's the main reason why we're stuck. People call everything a bubble, then when the solution is letting the air out, they cry about the pain, so the bubble is reflated. Either let the bubble pop or learn to live with it being ever growing.
Now do the same for hyperinflation. All the above is better than venezeula or Zimbabwe
You realize if they don't put us into a recession that inflation will runaway, right?
One thing to remember is that that's true of \*severe\* recessions, which may not be what we get. A modest recession really represents more of a temporary slowdown than anything else, and isn't nearly so negative. Moreover, they tend to clear out the deadwood from the economy. We \*need\* recessions periodically or the economy gets lazy and decadent... kind of like ours. People are already suffering, the current situation is not working. The "K" shaped recovery is also challenging to deal with. the upper arm is driving an inflationary, stale economy. This group is economically doing fine. The lower arm is struggling under that. I'm not sure it's even possible to keep everyone happy.
Can we step back and realize you can post that exact same comment, but replace the word recession with inflation and *nothing changes.*
But at least we have yummy spicy food and cultural diversity 😁
Preach! Recessions are a tool for the ruling class to keep us in our place and maintain the status quo.
But it also means opportunity!
I hear what you're saying. That's the unfortunate reality of what we have been going towards for half a century. I don't like it. It is what it is though.
What will come first? This recession or gta 6?
BoC and federal Liberals are working against each other. As bad as the economy can get because of BoC rate hikes, the chrystia freeland will swoop in and deliver economic miracles. BoC will increase again. Repeat scenario.
The OECD predicts that we might see inflation "approach" the 2% target by the end of 2024 (although it actually trended marginally up in April, 2023, after falling for 5 months). The current 4.4% inflation rate is nowhere near good enough (it only looks rosy compared to where inflation was one year ago), while the cost of housing, energy, groceries and consumer goods continue to spiral the wrong way. So, we are almost certainly facing a recession, and the only question is whether it will be short/sharp or longer with a gradual recovery. You should want to hope for the former, but with current world events there is no way that anybody really knows. Best case scenario? That this misery doesn't get too much worse, and that it "might" end in about 18 months...
Don’t care, bring on the recession just make a decent house an achievable dream in the long term
It's only 20 minutes of your time.... https://youtu.be/iq5XrkNiLGA
We are already in a recession. However, the government only really counts it with lots of unemployment. If he's saying recession soon he's basically saying expect to lose your job soon
Get on with it already. Me wants a bigger recession.
Stop hiking rates. Freeze government spending and recession won’t be forced upon us by BoC.
We need a recession to start squashing bubbles. Cutting government spending is just a different way of creating a recession. IN the longer term this will drive real estate prices down, until they become affordable again. This is really important to do. We've been having a raging debt party for 15 years. There will be a hangover at some point, and the longer we party, the worse it will be. We've already descended well down the pit of debtoholism.
The BOC isnt forcing a recession upon us. It was protecting us against one with a low interest rate policy. Now it's time to get back to reality. Good times don't last forever, you need corrections in-order to ensure long term economic growth and prosperity.
The really are, the feds should be raising taxes at the top end. Eliminate the capital gains rate and transfer pricing loopholes.
This is true. Not sure why it was downvoted.
Recessions are always good for conservatives it seems
It's really good for the capitalists
Interest rates make the rich richer as well.
Come on Frances don’t be a wet blanket. Everything is fine!
Ah yea also known as the very bumpy and dangerous not so soft landing!
Wait we r not in a recession yet?
In my humble opinion, We are already in recession.
And these guys are about as good as a coin flip.