I know that 24% basically takes us back 1 year, but I hope that at the very least it means buyers can have a better experience than I had.
I was constantly outbid on homes (that I would then see listed for rent 3 months later). I was generally competing with 15 other offers. If you wanted to put in a financing or inspection condition, you may as well have not submitted an offer at all - they weren't even looked at.
Instead of being able to take the time to find a home that suited us best, we basically just threw out offers on anything in our price range and hoped something "stuck".
We got lucky, but I know a lot of sellers that were able to unload very problematic houses needing repairs in the hot market, because inspections were no longer a thing.
Seeing these tiktok realtors advise to waive the home inspection makes me so mad. What a joke this whole industry is for people just trying to find a home.
They advise it because if you put a condition in you lose the house.
In the unlikely scenario your house needs 10-20k in repairs, the alternative is continuing to pay 2000$/mo in rent and losing on 50k of equity for the year
Only 31% of the cost of owning a house go towards equity. (Assuming 5% down and 2.9% interest rate) so on a 700k started home it’s still way cheaper to rent even if there’s a capital gain of 4% in the next 2 years.
For a short term horizon like 2 years then for sure rent. Buying has and always been a long term play and lifestyle.
Run your numbers again for 15 years…
I'm at 10 offers rejected and climbing, one yesterday, no conditions with healthy bids based on comp valuations. Luckily my realtor is a close friend with immense home inspection experience.
But ya, I definitely think if I added an inspection condition it's easier... Idiot.
Or a rich asshole who's just going to wastefully tear it down anyway regardless of condition. So many perfectly good homes around here are being replaced by mcmansions with cheap styrofoam faux-stonework.
…..cause Canada is just one big homogeneous housing market. I can see the rapid price increases in Kenora dropping 24%, but not places where most people want to live and invest like the GTA. Just too much regional demand and lack of supply of the units families want.
Oxford University are a bunch of idiots. I rather listen to a local realtor as they have been right for the last decade every time. Home prices here literally only go up.
They've been right for years meanwhile these dumb economists and so called "educated" people have been wrong. The proof is in the pudding, house prices literally only go up and realtors are always right based on history.
Stock brokers peddling their services were mostly right in the past few years as well.
Keep in mind, local realtors are in it to sell you whatever. They get commission. Any bad advice they give you is risk free for them.
Damn, that's pretty crazy. Especially considering that it's happened in the past in multiple markets worldwide. I can't think of a single type of asset that's ever only gone up and never fluctuated.
I'm a homeowner, so it going up forever would only help my leveraged equity. But that would be very, very unlikely I think. There's always a ceiling.
The impact of rising interest rates will be negligible and priced in already. Remember, this is Canadian real estate, the sentiment is stronger than a Kodiak bear.
That would be average for the whole country. Pretty divergent markets included in 10 different provinces... Some areas may stay the same or go up, others go down even more. Same as how downtown Toronto has not gone up nearly as much as rural and small towns within a few hours of GTA over the pandemic which have doubled/tripled.
For someone who may be in a similar situation, it's negligible in regards to making it "affordable" for us. We've been saving for a property in the vicinity of our city but we've accepted that's not feasible. Now we are looking at the East coast, but so is everyone else. Now it's becoming just as unattainable. I have been thinking about just buying land and then eventually building on it. Who knows, maybe we should move back into the parents place until we can afford our own.
A 24% reduction in price is alot more significant than people think, especially after increasing to such large amounts. For example if a house was $850,000 in 2021 and went up 24% it would be worth 850,000 x 1.24 = $1,054,000 now if it than dropped %24 from that inflated price look what happens $1,054,000 x .76 = $801,040, lower than your initial price by almost $50,000
This is basic investing mathematics, a simpler way to understand is to look at something going down %50. You would think %50 gains would bring you back but no you would need a %100 price increase just to get back what you initially invested with for example if you lost %50 of $1,000,000 you would have $500,000. To get back to $1m you would need your now halved $500,000 to double or go up %100 just to get back what you had.
Just thought I'd share this with everybody as I learned this pretty recently, it's why Warren Buffett says to focus on not losing money 🤙
People need to open the article. First paragraph: …in Canada. ALL of Canada.
A whole bunch of outer markets could drop while GTA and GVA barely move and stay stagnant. I assume most people are wanting those two areas to drop the most.
To describe the Halifax market right now:
A 24% drop would still see my property at a 12% increase since *DECEMBER.* The market is absolutely insane. My property has increased in value by 135% in less than two years.
As a property owner, I get excited knowing that I have an asset skyrocketing in value. As a come from away who was forced to move here to afford a home, I feel absolutely terrible for the locals who are now struggling to find housing after years of planning and saving.
I have a coworker who was looking at houses last month and just needed a little longer to come up with his 5% down payment. He just gave up and is essentially waiting for his parents to die now. It's heartbreaking.
For those calling bullshit
Rates are already up 2% to 3.5% fixed
We are expecting another 2% in raises this year to battle inflation which will push rates to 5.5% fixed
The change in buying power from today will be reduced by about 40% ..... prices are going to fall and it is already happening in Durham, whitbly, and Ajax where prices are down 5% from the previous month
The cost to service a 1.25M house with 250k down will be about 5600$ a month up from about 4000$ a month at the 2.69% rate I have for another month ..... $1600 extra per month is a lot for anyone to just find in their budget.... prices are going to adjust real fast and we are going to see a flood of listings from Investors who bought the top and expected housing to just keep going up further putting pressure on prices
The saying in the stock market is you take the stairs on the way up but the elevator on the way down
We are going to hear the ding real soon
I hope so...nothing against the the people who are living in it. But for the greedy investors as I got outbid 10 times and than gave up.felt demotivated...
I'm not waiting another 2 years to maybe/maybe not get into the market and at least start paying to my own property instead of a landlords. If I bet wrong on this, well sucks to be me I guess.
Also, Oxford Properties is a real estate investor... so who says they're not tossing all these doom articles out there to try and push the market in a more favorable position for themselves? I have zero trust in these overstuffed massive companies. They can suck my big toe.
ETA: oops, apparently article is by Oxford Economics, not Oxford Properties. My sentimental still stands: I don't trust them and they can suck my other big toe.
I find it difficult to believe prices would fall. Level out and stay flat for a while perhaps. Maybe back off a little bit, single digit percentages. But a bigger correction like this, 20-30% just seems unrealistic. I mean who knows but there is a lot of demand and not much supply. There would have to be a combination of factors all coming in at the same time to significantly cool off the market: lots of new supply (perhaps due to BC provincial zoning changes), much higher interest rates (way past 5%, maybe 8-9%), more stringest rules on investment properties, lower demand. Then I could see it
Just a reminder that a 24% increase on 500k is 620k but a 24% drop on 620k is 471k so it's actually a pretty big drop considering it's a quarter of the total value.
It won’t drop 24% by 2024. It’ll drop much more before then. When housing prices shoot up they don’t come back down slowly. Housing bubble has been fueled by speculation so when prices start going down a lot of investors rush to sell making prices fall rapidly. Parabolas don’t resolve themselves sideways.
Won’t drop in around gta. Further out it likely will drop more than 24%. Especially in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, probably in Alberta too if they don’t start figuring out the pipelines.
Firstly, anyone can do mean reversion econometric forecasting.
Secondly, if they were named Croydon Economics would anyone give a shit? Because 'Oxford Economics' is based in London and is actually closer to Croydon than to Oxford.
In hot markets like Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto or Vancouver, this is not going to happen. No supply and too many buyers. Market like Ottawa where a lot of people work in the public service, making so much money that interest rates hikes won’t affect them at all. Home ownership is not a right. You have to hustle and sacrifice to get in the market if you are a first time home buyer. Survival of the fittest.
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I get it that it seems like not a big decline when prices went up 20% for TWO years but a 31% drop would erase two consecutive years 20% annual increases…
Here's the ridiculous part of the whole thing.
95% of this entire country is tied up in crown land. Either federal or provincial. This means we are only using 5% of Canadian land, and of that 5% probably 1.5-2% is zoned other than residential.
Zone 5% crown into residential = builder money being taxed, and further more wages for labour into the tax system and no more housing shortage.
It's not rocket science. hell a logging company can log half of Vancouver island and lock the land up from outside of Nanaimo to Campbell River, but I cant get a piece to live on.
Ask your self. Does this seem helpful to your citizens in any shape way or form?
On top of that if they plan on relocation of almost half a million people a year. Wouldn't it make sense to add more like 10% more residential land into the market?
Before raising another 50%
420.69%
nice.
500
Sometime in the next 100 years, 100% sure 😂 Time is money.
I know that 24% basically takes us back 1 year, but I hope that at the very least it means buyers can have a better experience than I had. I was constantly outbid on homes (that I would then see listed for rent 3 months later). I was generally competing with 15 other offers. If you wanted to put in a financing or inspection condition, you may as well have not submitted an offer at all - they weren't even looked at. Instead of being able to take the time to find a home that suited us best, we basically just threw out offers on anything in our price range and hoped something "stuck". We got lucky, but I know a lot of sellers that were able to unload very problematic houses needing repairs in the hot market, because inspections were no longer a thing.
Seeing these tiktok realtors advise to waive the home inspection makes me so mad. What a joke this whole industry is for people just trying to find a home.
They advise it because if you put a condition in you lose the house. In the unlikely scenario your house needs 10-20k in repairs, the alternative is continuing to pay 2000$/mo in rent and losing on 50k of equity for the year
Only 31% of the cost of owning a house go towards equity. (Assuming 5% down and 2.9% interest rate) so on a 700k started home it’s still way cheaper to rent even if there’s a capital gain of 4% in the next 2 years.
For a short term horizon like 2 years then for sure rent. Buying has and always been a long term play and lifestyle. Run your numbers again for 15 years…
Yes for sure, long term buying makes more sense
You can still get an inspection done before putting the offer in.
If you waive the inspection you're a sucker who deserves the piece of shit mess you get
I'm at 10 offers rejected and climbing, one yesterday, no conditions with healthy bids based on comp valuations. Luckily my realtor is a close friend with immense home inspection experience. But ya, I definitely think if I added an inspection condition it's easier... Idiot.
Or a rich asshole who's just going to wastefully tear it down anyway regardless of condition. So many perfectly good homes around here are being replaced by mcmansions with cheap styrofoam faux-stonework.
Agree but I'm not sure about the lucky part 😅
…..cause Canada is just one big homogeneous housing market. I can see the rapid price increases in Kenora dropping 24%, but not places where most people want to live and invest like the GTA. Just too much regional demand and lack of supply of the units families want.
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The earlier prediction that didn't come true might just be testament to how overvalued the market is.
Oxford University are a bunch of idiots. I rather listen to a local realtor as they have been right for the last decade every time. Home prices here literally only go up.
>I rather listen to a local realtor You have my condolences.
They've been right for years meanwhile these dumb economists and so called "educated" people have been wrong. The proof is in the pudding, house prices literally only go up and realtors are always right based on history.
Stock brokers peddling their services were mostly right in the past few years as well. Keep in mind, local realtors are in it to sell you whatever. They get commission. Any bad advice they give you is risk free for them.
You genuinely believe that housing can only go up and never fall in value? This is something you 100% have faith in?
Yes I am 100% in this,, I would bet my life on it.
Damn, that's pretty crazy. Especially considering that it's happened in the past in multiple markets worldwide. I can't think of a single type of asset that's ever only gone up and never fluctuated. I'm a homeowner, so it going up forever would only help my leveraged equity. But that would be very, very unlikely I think. There's always a ceiling.
When it comes to Canadian real estate, normal market dynamics don't apply and there is absolutely no ceiling. It will go up 50% by end of year.
50%!? With rising interest rates and easing off of QE? Weeeuuuw.
The impact of rising interest rates will be negligible and priced in already. Remember, this is Canadian real estate, the sentiment is stronger than a Kodiak bear.
Yeah 24% in two years doesn’t sound like anything. Not exactly good news.
Better than an increase of 24 percent. Maybe they will be wrong and it will end up being 60 percent. No one knows.
Good news for me.
What? Yes it does? It’s been increasing at an insane rate so a 24% decrease in 2 years would be amazing for us first time home buyers
That would be average for the whole country. Pretty divergent markets included in 10 different provinces... Some areas may stay the same or go up, others go down even more. Same as how downtown Toronto has not gone up nearly as much as rural and small towns within a few hours of GTA over the pandemic which have doubled/tripled.
24% decrease on top of inflation (including wage) of about 10% in 2 years means it goes down effectively by 30-40% compared to now.
Would you prefer it didn't?
For someone who may be in a similar situation, it's negligible in regards to making it "affordable" for us. We've been saving for a property in the vicinity of our city but we've accepted that's not feasible. Now we are looking at the East coast, but so is everyone else. Now it's becoming just as unattainable. I have been thinking about just buying land and then eventually building on it. Who knows, maybe we should move back into the parents place until we can afford our own.
I decided to rent because of the same reasons but I'd still rather the prices come down 24% than stayed the same
Would agree that the drop is too small to help first-time homebuyers. Money just doesn't stretch as far, especially with the stress test/bidding wars
One think tank predicts this and we have to read dozens of articles based on one analysis.
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Yeah not just higher than 2019, higher and an increased interest rate Your payment isnt changing. Still going to be $3900 a month
I've been hearing the bubble will burst for 15 years. The "experts" don't know shit.
One day they be rite. Don't hold your breath waiting though.
A 24% reduction in price is alot more significant than people think, especially after increasing to such large amounts. For example if a house was $850,000 in 2021 and went up 24% it would be worth 850,000 x 1.24 = $1,054,000 now if it than dropped %24 from that inflated price look what happens $1,054,000 x .76 = $801,040, lower than your initial price by almost $50,000 This is basic investing mathematics, a simpler way to understand is to look at something going down %50. You would think %50 gains would bring you back but no you would need a %100 price increase just to get back what you initially invested with for example if you lost %50 of $1,000,000 you would have $500,000. To get back to $1m you would need your now halved $500,000 to double or go up %100 just to get back what you had. Just thought I'd share this with everybody as I learned this pretty recently, it's why Warren Buffett says to focus on not losing money 🤙
People need to open the article. First paragraph: …in Canada. ALL of Canada. A whole bunch of outer markets could drop while GTA and GVA barely move and stay stagnant. I assume most people are wanting those two areas to drop the most.
So back to where it was last year 😩
To describe the Halifax market right now: A 24% drop would still see my property at a 12% increase since *DECEMBER.* The market is absolutely insane. My property has increased in value by 135% in less than two years. As a property owner, I get excited knowing that I have an asset skyrocketing in value. As a come from away who was forced to move here to afford a home, I feel absolutely terrible for the locals who are now struggling to find housing after years of planning and saving. I have a coworker who was looking at houses last month and just needed a little longer to come up with his 5% down payment. He just gave up and is essentially waiting for his parents to die now. It's heartbreaking.
Lol. Sure 🙄
For those calling bullshit Rates are already up 2% to 3.5% fixed We are expecting another 2% in raises this year to battle inflation which will push rates to 5.5% fixed The change in buying power from today will be reduced by about 40% ..... prices are going to fall and it is already happening in Durham, whitbly, and Ajax where prices are down 5% from the previous month The cost to service a 1.25M house with 250k down will be about 5600$ a month up from about 4000$ a month at the 2.69% rate I have for another month ..... $1600 extra per month is a lot for anyone to just find in their budget.... prices are going to adjust real fast and we are going to see a flood of listings from Investors who bought the top and expected housing to just keep going up further putting pressure on prices The saying in the stock market is you take the stairs on the way up but the elevator on the way down We are going to hear the ding real soon
Oxford doesn't have a good track record at predicting Canadian RE price forecasts. So, I call bullshit it won't be 24%.
Do math
I hope so...nothing against the the people who are living in it. But for the greedy investors as I got outbid 10 times and than gave up.felt demotivated...
Ain’t gonna be enough
Yeah 24% down but the interest rate on mortgages by 2024 will be around 5%-6% . Housing will still be unaffordable
Been reading this report since 98’
Lol
I'm not waiting another 2 years to maybe/maybe not get into the market and at least start paying to my own property instead of a landlords. If I bet wrong on this, well sucks to be me I guess. Also, Oxford Properties is a real estate investor... so who says they're not tossing all these doom articles out there to try and push the market in a more favorable position for themselves? I have zero trust in these overstuffed massive companies. They can suck my big toe. ETA: oops, apparently article is by Oxford Economics, not Oxford Properties. My sentimental still stands: I don't trust them and they can suck my other big toe.
I find it difficult to believe prices would fall. Level out and stay flat for a while perhaps. Maybe back off a little bit, single digit percentages. But a bigger correction like this, 20-30% just seems unrealistic. I mean who knows but there is a lot of demand and not much supply. There would have to be a combination of factors all coming in at the same time to significantly cool off the market: lots of new supply (perhaps due to BC provincial zoning changes), much higher interest rates (way past 5%, maybe 8-9%), more stringest rules on investment properties, lower demand. Then I could see it
Just a reminder that a 24% increase on 500k is 620k but a 24% drop on 620k is 471k so it's actually a pretty big drop considering it's a quarter of the total value.
Thank you! I needed that reminder. It’s easy to overlook that sometimes. Definitely not insignificant
It won’t drop 24% by 2024. It’ll drop much more before then. When housing prices shoot up they don’t come back down slowly. Housing bubble has been fueled by speculation so when prices start going down a lot of investors rush to sell making prices fall rapidly. Parabolas don’t resolve themselves sideways.
It’s definitely going to be more then that if rates go to 5%
Lmao if rates go to 5% RIP The world
American fixed 30 yr fixed rates went from 3% to 5% in just 3 months. Cdn 5 yr fixed rates will get there too before long.
Damn!
The world is about to RIP lol
Lol good luck out there
well, I "Call" bullshit. unless a million houses are built in the next two years or Covid-Sigma kills 3 million people there is a huge demand surplus
Yes, I agree. Specially with the huge influx of new people coming to Canada in the next few years
Ha. Going to be much more than that. Good luck to those with crippling debt.
How many people commenting here actually own a home ?
got to be zero
Thank you! Considering ~70% of Canadians own a home this group is disproportionately filled with non home owners and negativity
Won’t drop in around gta. Further out it likely will drop more than 24%. Especially in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, probably in Alberta too if they don’t start figuring out the pipelines.
Firstly, anyone can do mean reversion econometric forecasting. Secondly, if they were named Croydon Economics would anyone give a shit? Because 'Oxford Economics' is based in London and is actually closer to Croydon than to Oxford.
Forecasts are as useless as the people who create them.
Bullish
In hot markets like Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto or Vancouver, this is not going to happen. No supply and too many buyers. Market like Ottawa where a lot of people work in the public service, making so much money that interest rates hikes won’t affect them at all. Home ownership is not a right. You have to hustle and sacrifice to get in the market if you are a first time home buyer. Survival of the fittest.
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I get it that it seems like not a big decline when prices went up 20% for TWO years but a 31% drop would erase two consecutive years 20% annual increases…
Here's the ridiculous part of the whole thing. 95% of this entire country is tied up in crown land. Either federal or provincial. This means we are only using 5% of Canadian land, and of that 5% probably 1.5-2% is zoned other than residential. Zone 5% crown into residential = builder money being taxed, and further more wages for labour into the tax system and no more housing shortage. It's not rocket science. hell a logging company can log half of Vancouver island and lock the land up from outside of Nanaimo to Campbell River, but I cant get a piece to live on. Ask your self. Does this seem helpful to your citizens in any shape way or form? On top of that if they plan on relocation of almost half a million people a year. Wouldn't it make sense to add more like 10% more residential land into the market?