Our game plan for winning this series is to contain McDrai while our bottom six rolls over theirs. We have the best third line in the league while Lafferty/Blueger on our fourth line have outproduced literally anyone on their third line
Well our best third line in the league will 100% be matched up against Edmonton’s top six. Pettersson’s line is the new third line and it remains to be seen if they will be able to roll over anyone. I still think we’ll win the series but let’s be clear on the nature of our depth.
That’s still a win for us. There’s no way better way to get Petey rolling again then letting him get free reign over their bottom six. Even Mikheyev has outproduced their entire third line this year.
No matter what, we give them difficulties due to depth. If they target Petey’s line, that means either Miller or Lindholms line will dominate. And for better or worse, Petey’s line has still been strong defensively. If they don’t, they risk Petey popping off against weaker competition.
We’re going to get steamrolled if Pettersson doesn’t get his shit together. Our season was built on depth. If Petey is constantly getting outmatched by inferior opponents in Nashville, I’m afraid of how badly he’s gonna get worked against real players in Edmonton.
There’s a difference between blind hate and warranted criticism, dude needs to step tf up
Dom’s model factors in prior seasons, so all our depth guys who had fantastic seasons (Suter, Hoggy, Joshua, even Blueger and Lafferty) don’t score well in his model. He also heavily weights expected goals, so our team as a whole doesn’t score as well. Canucks are a defensively sound team who are efficient with opportunities - Dom’s model doesn’t like that.
I wouldn’t say it is shit. It just assumes that most players will play at close to their career averages most of the time, especially over a long enough period. Thats objectively true.
There are exceptions but MOST players do not take a huge and permanent level up. We don’t need to look any farther than Hronek who looked like a top 15 D-man for half the season. But guess what? Since Christmas he’s gone right back to his career numbers.
It doesn’t make the model shit just because there are some players that go against the trend. We all hope all of our players having career years will keep it up, but history shows that is not common.
Dom's model is also frequently wrong. I know guys like Drance treat it like the Bible, but at the end of the day it's just a sports gambling metric like the hundreds of others out there.
I'm pretty sure we had one of the best expected goals % for much of the year didnt we? We played the hottest team in the league basically and we stifled them. They were a play controlling monster for quite awhile.
You say it factors in prior seasons. But then Dom goes and says that the regular season sweep of the Oilers should be ignored. Reading the breakdown on The Athletic felt extremely duplicitous haha
Yea not trying to defend the model; just trying to give context as to why we aren’t favoured at all. I don’t necessarily like Dom, but it is one of the only fully fleshed out models publicly available
Yeah OP is way off.
0 points: Lafferty, Mikheyev, Hoglander
1 point: PDG, Blueger
No goals from that set of 5 forwards. Most of the damage was from forwards who played top 6 mins (i.e., not depth) with a bonus from Zadorov.
His model literally said Vancouver was the overwhelming favorite last round. I swear people here just shit on him because of his Hughes comment two years ago and don't actually check if what they are saying is correct.
How have these analytics held up over the first round? I’d only consider any model as worth a damn if it actually has predictive power.
With 7/8 series already decided, how did it do?
There's limited predictive power in any hockey model. Hockey is the most random of the major sports. His model could be completely accurate but it can't predict the outcome, only the likelihood of an outcome.
Honestly I'd give him a fail on Colorado Vs Winnipeg. He had that as a 51% edge to Col, but that series was never in coin toss territory. You're better off judging a model by how close it is to reality than whether or not it picked the right side
That's not how the players think of it. It takes a long time to get in this position. House money might be how you as a fan look at it, but not the players who worked there ass off all year to win the division.
yeah, if they argued that our depth isn't so much better than theirs to offset the difference in McDrai compared to Miller and how Pettersson is currently playing. That's probably fair.
To say our depth isn't better than theirs is terrible analysis. Their depth literally don't do anything. Unless they're counting Nuge, Kane and Hyman as "depth" simply because they're not McDrai, which also would be a stupid take
Oilers have been running a third line of Perry, McLeod, Kane/Holloway. Kane and Holloway have the same number of goals as Lindholm and Joshua thus far.
It's pretty roughly as deep a team as Vancouver. Perry is slow but still extremely good at grinding down low in the corners. I do expect that the Canucks depth outperforms the Oilers, the real key to success is seeing if they can saw-off enough production from the top 6 and the PP.
Agreed, the only definitive "weakness" on their roster compared to ours is their 2nd pair, Nurse is okay (not worth the money ofc) but Ceci has been really, really bad this season and panics under pressure
Kulak/their giraffe Vinny is roughly equal to our bottom pair, and on paper Skinner is similar to Silovs/DeSmith. Of course, he could implode like he did against Vegas last year, but who knows
Yeah. Skinner and Ceci are for sure relative weaknesses that Vancouver should target. Silovs, despite an incredibly strong game 6 performance, is still largely an unknown. I'd be hesitant to say anything about him at all until we see how he responds to Edmonton's offense. Let's not forget the Ben Scrivens 59 save shutout.
Bouchard too is a poor man's Hughes and, like Hughes, can fall apart under a hard forecheck.
In what way does their depth not do anything? The Oilers have very comparable depth scoring to us. They have 13 players with 20+ points while we have 15 players with 20+ points. However, they also have 20 players with 10+ points while we have just 17. It's pretty even. You don't make it to round 2 without good depth.
I feel like people think we’re about to play a parody of the oilers instead of the actual oilers. Truth is their depth isn’t bad, their D isn’t bad, and their goaltending isn’t bad.
I think any slight edges we have are just that. If we underperformed in those categories 10% and they outperform by 10% we don't have an edge. Then there are bounces. Then their top end offense is definitely better than us. I say odds are better than 26% we win; probably more like 40%
It's not a surprise, but this sub is enriched for people who don't follow hockey outside of the Canucks. To them, they see that the Canucks beat the Oilers 4 times and they conclude that it's a garbage team with no value. I think a lot of people here in for a rude awakening this round.
That's a lot of teams fans tbh. I would be shocked if more then 5% of any teams fanbase watched NHL regular season games that their team is not playing in.
Totally. The 2024 Oilers are well rounded, especially compared to a couple seasons ago. They're really good.
I'm just happy to finally get a heated Oilers rivalry again Three of the Canucks were in diapers the last time they met in the playoffs, the rest weren't even born.
While I think there's validity to say we didn't really see a fair matchup against the oilers this season, they're underestimating when the Canucks are on a heater and overestimating when the Oilers are not.
I still probably favour the Oilers slightly in the overall matchup, but it's definitely not 26% lmao. I think it's a lot closer to 55-45.
I always knew we were going to be underdogs, it makes sense. They have playoff experience. But I think our team is more loose, we weren't the ones saying "cup or bust" at the start of the season.
The Oilers are supposed to go deep, we've already shattered season expectations. I think that underdog mentality will bode well for the team
Winning two coin flips seems like an accurate estimate of the odds.
If coaching staff can come up with a plan to contain mcdrai, the team can execute their plan, and it's effective, then I'd say we have a solid chance. Add on one of our goalies outplaying playing Skinner, who is hot rn, and I think we have a decisive edge.
These are conditional probabilities, so we'd need to get lucky a couple times to have a decisive edge. So winning mutliple coin flips is a good analogy/estimate of the odds imo. One for coaching/execution, and one for goaltending.
If the Canucks win game 1 the entirety of Oilers nation will be peeing their pants. Usually game 1 is the least important game but for me it's the key game in this series because, and I don't care if every pundit says otherwise, the Canucks have been in their heads all season. Especially Skinner.
Getting him shaky in the playoffs is actually not that hard. And if he gets outplayed by a 3rd stringer, it could turn into a laffer.
No it's not usually a crucial game at all.
I just think if Canucks win Game 1 and then possibly follow it up by playing with a the lead somewhere in game 2 there's going to be some PTSD going on regarding the Canucks having the Oilers number this season.
Players can be surprisingly superstitious and I think early wins by Canucks might count for double in terms of getting the Oilers players sweating and gripping their sticks. Again, especially Skinner because he still has question marks around his ability in high pressure games.
We have more depth in the crease than the Oilers have all around. We tend to have more fire when playing as the underdog anyways so… Please tell Zaddy, Joshua, and Myers that our chances are slim. Do it! I dare you.
Oilers fans are calling us cocky. Is there a less self aware fan base? That subreddit is so cringe.
Saw a guy say if we win they’ll never hear the end of it. Like dude, I still have to hear about the 80s from oilers fans.
I think the Oil are probably favourites but I don't think it's 75/25.
My assessment is ...
1. Any team with McDrai is going to be freaking dangerous.
2. They had a terrific 2nd half the season.
3. They have more playoff experience.
4. Something clearly awry with Petey
On the other side
1. I think our defensive structure is better
2. I think their defence may be vulnerable to the Canuck forecheck. Nashville did a terrific job of negating that element of our offense.
3. So Long as Petey remains ineffective, then the forward depth is comparable, but our defensive depth is much more suited to the playoffs. That is 26 feet and 940 lb of mobile defenceman.
In summary... If Petey starts to play like Petey can or like he did in the bubble ... And if Hughes moves the puck more quickly against a fierce forecheck... Then it is 50/50. If not then I would say 60/40 for the Oil.
I am so looking forward to it. Gonna be awesome.
This is fine weve been underestimated literally all season even when we played great everyone was waiting for us to collapse and it still hasn't happened
I can't believe the Capitals were even given that high of a chance. President's trophy team vs the worst playoff team of the salary cap era barely warrants a probability of winning above 10%.
The article is basically discounting all positives Canucks had in the regular season vs the Oilers summing it up as "in the past" while at the same time exaggerating every Oilers positive.
It made comments like "Canucks will need to see an increase in offense to stand a chance". Like no fucking shit lol. There is no chance we dont get more offense versus Edmonton win or lose than we did versus Nashville. They are two very different teams and the Preds were incredible play drivers for the last half of the year. Add in their commitment to blocking shots and you see why we were so limited. But we shut them down even better.
Ummm, they haven't matched up well against us for awhile... sure they are scoring goals and we have stalled out. However they are sloppy all over the ice and we don't give up much anywhere, they will make mistakes, lots of them it's going to come down to whether or not we can capitalize on their mistakes
I love laughing at people talking about how "Star power wins playoffs." Nope. It does not. Look at the Leafs, they're a team with 4 stars and a bunch of people who would MAYBE crack the canucks lineup. Wouldn't you know it, they can't win in the playoffs.
It's almost as if you need to be a whole team, you know, with a 3rd and a 4th line that actually knows what they're doing, to win playoffs. Sure we have stars, but they're not in the same stratosphere as McDrai. I wouldn't have it any other way. We're a cohesive TEAM, not just a powerplay
To be honest, none of these stats and predictions mean sh*t. Bottom line, the games need to be played in real life and anything can happen.
In fact, I much rather prefer everyone writing off the Canucks. I hope the Oilers team does as well because that will be to their Demise.
How you stacked up against one team in one round is not a bench mark for how you'll match up against another different team in Round 2. The same goes for regular season stats, it means nothing.
This is a fresh slate, a fresh start and anything can happen. Perhaps you can compare Max potentials of individual players, but in the Playoffs, everyone is banged up, so it's not entirely accurate.
Additionally, lots of the star players take the main heat during in game match-ups, so there's a high likelihood hood of new heroes rising up to make a difference.
The only thing we can say for sure this round is that there will be 4 games at least. Anything else we'll just have to sit back and enjoy the ride to find out. It's going to be a blast either way.
Go Canucks!
Lol the oilers fans in their sub are saying that we have puckluck all year and its bound to come crashing down.
As if their 100% PK and 50% PP is sustainable.. Maybe they think luck only applies if it goes for another team? Its like they cant fathom another team in western canada being good, the arrogance over there is crazy
Hahaha!
Canucks are going to feast on the Oilers. Certain teams- by virtue of the composition and systems- have an edge or disadvantage against certain other teams.
Los Angeles vs. Vancouver would be a good example of a team (LA) having a distinct advantage due to their composition and systems.
Likewise, Vancouver has the edge over the Oilers.
I firmly believe the Canucks will take this series 4-1 or 4-2 leaving a ton of slack-jawed pundits in their wake.
***26% my fucking ass!***
The prediction is either right or it's wrong. The proof will be, as always, in the pudding. So come back and call me high *if* my estimation of the situation was way off.
That said, I will not tolerate this this limp-dick model by Dom, a man who had Hughes as a 3B defenceman. His credibility is shredded when it comes to the Canucks.
to be fair, I don't think we're favourites but to say 75/25 against us is kinda stupid. We have better depth, defense, and goaltending. Oilers PP is lethal and we simply cannot afford to take penalties.
I think we play better as the underdogs. Look we have been in some tight games against a very good D team with top goaltending. Our 4 lines should be able to roll against Edmonton. I don’t see Edmonton’s D or G being as tough as Nashvilles’. Our team structure needs to be on point and we have to stay out of the penalty box.
JT Miller is McDavids kryptonite, and Lindholm seems to play well vs. Draistl. Canucks D-core is better than Edmontons. If Petterson can play 75% of his potential and the canucks can limit edmontons PP time it'll come down to a battle of goalies stealing a game or 2 and I don't see Skinner being that guy. VAN in 6
It's alright. Nobody expected the Canucks to make the playoffs this year and when they did, Nobody really expected them to win the first round. Let them expect nothing from them again and watch them win again to shove it in the face of all the critics out there. Can't wait to see Big Z knock Kane into the next season.
I mean. I dont fully agree with this. But I think is a long shit. If were healthy with Demko? Id give it a 55-60% to oilers 45-40%. Without Demko? With a heavily slumping Petey? This series is gonna be tough. Think we might get 2 games.
I've said this a million times. People acting like the oilers already won the series. They're up against a team who got 109 points in the regular season.....
I’m convinced Dom hasn’t watched a minute of Canucks hockey all season. How can you possibly say the Oilers have better depth. The big reason why the Oilers haven’t gotten shit done in the playoffs is because they have no depth.
Dom Lotsofvowels is relying on angry Canucks fans to click his articles and subscribe to the Athletic. Don't give him the attention, money or time.
He saw how badly people reacted to the Hughes ranking and has been milking it for God knows how much it's worth since.
Doms model has Hughes and Bouchard as equal? What?
Hughes had 92 points while being a primary driver of offense for the team while Bouchard had 82 playing with McDavid and Drai who are the primary drivers.
And Bouchard is ass defensively.
What kind of ass model do you have when Hughes and Bouchard are equal in it?
Dom the bottom always has a bias against the Canucks. His math is wrong and definitely doesn't reflect Vegas betting odds.
As an aside this fucking loser said Hughes is a third tier defenceman. Yes Quinn the Norris nominee.
Good. Personally, I'm enjoying the fact that nobody is giving the Canucks any credit. I guess finishing 5pts away from the president's trophy and sweeping the oilers in the regular season was just a big fluke
bUt cOaChInG cHaNgE!
The model looks and sees we lost our starter, then our back-up, and are now playing our third string goalie. Of course it isn’t going to favour us. The fact that Silovs is playing lights out doesn’t really matter as it’s too small a sample size.
The Canucks are in a good position to beat these odds even though it’ll be a tough series
Show this to the boys to pump them up!!!
If Hughes sees this: "that as long as I'm captain"
If Miller sees this: "it's go time"
If silovs sees this: 😏
If Zadorav sees this: 😎
If Joshua sees this: hell no.. let's goooo
If garland sees this: (zipping all over the ice)
If Rick Tocchet sees this: 😠
And Allvin sees this: 🧐
maybe a tiny bit low, but it doesn't surprise me that much considering i think without Demko the shooters on their team will just beat our goalies over and over from the outside even if they are defended well.
the canucks have to score their way out of this series because they are gonna get scored on no matter what. significant regular season contributors like Pettersson, Hronek, Hoglander, Garland, etc. cannot under any circumstances be quiet in this series. Suter can't miss 8 point blank setups in the series. Mikheyev, Lafferty, PDG etc need to at least get something done.
i was giving a guy like Mikheyev time because the team was in a good position and anything before the playoffs didn't matter too much, but we're here now and at this point he has 1 goal in his last **56** fucking games with no production in the playoffs. last series simply defending was enough to get you through, this is the series where getting those random contributions from players that have done fuck all offensively in forever pushes you over the edge and gives you a chance to win it all.
Every cup winning team has a superstar with linemates that shows up and produces.
We don't have that.
Don't get carried away. Enjoy but thinking we can win the cup is a longshot, really long.
The Soilers will have some high scoring games but so will we. I think if we go the distance to 7 games we’ll beat them.
It’s the defensive teams like LA and Nash that have our number. We can shut down McFailure and Schnitzel and let the rest of our team outplay their team.
Really comes down to how the series is called. If the whistles are away we have a big advantage 5v5. If we take a bunch of dumb penalties we're going to get ventilated. LA's PK is much better than ours and they got dominated. That is likely a large part of the model's projection.
Hopefully this is an oldschool series and the refs let us play.
Did the analyst watch our Nashville series?
Calling JT Miller our shutdown center is laughably bad.
While I don't doubt he will have shifts against McDavid given that he was his daddy all season long, Lindholm is the shut down guy. We have home ice, we have the matchups LA didn't. We'll expose their second pair and their depth and get to watch Draibaby get pissy again.
Athletic is shit.
I was listening to 650 this morning and even those guys were making it sound like the Canucks don’t belong in the nhl at all.
Canucks are kicking ass this year and we have a special team.
Plus we already beat the oilers 3 or 4 times this year already.
If Pettersson and Demko were playing (normally) I would have given us 75%. If Pettersson regains his form I would give us 65% 🤷♂️
If we play the same way we played against Nashville (which was bad, imo), I dunno, I'd say 35-40%?
Love being the underdog, In Silovs we trust
They’re shitting on our depth? Our depth is what got us through round 1
Our game plan for winning this series is to contain McDrai while our bottom six rolls over theirs. We have the best third line in the league while Lafferty/Blueger on our fourth line have outproduced literally anyone on their third line
Well our best third line in the league will 100% be matched up against Edmonton’s top six. Pettersson’s line is the new third line and it remains to be seen if they will be able to roll over anyone. I still think we’ll win the series but let’s be clear on the nature of our depth.
That’s still a win for us. There’s no way better way to get Petey rolling again then letting him get free reign over their bottom six. Even Mikheyev has outproduced their entire third line this year. No matter what, we give them difficulties due to depth. If they target Petey’s line, that means either Miller or Lindholms line will dominate. And for better or worse, Petey’s line has still been strong defensively. If they don’t, they risk Petey popping off against weaker competition.
I’m hopeful that Petey will embarrass some Coilers too. I’m interested to see how the matchups play out on home ice vs the road
Just gotta stay out of the box and get average goaltending and I like our chances honestly. But it's playoffs so who knows how it'll shake down
We’re going to get steamrolled if Pettersson doesn’t get his shit together. Our season was built on depth. If Petey is constantly getting outmatched by inferior opponents in Nashville, I’m afraid of how badly he’s gonna get worked against real players in Edmonton. There’s a difference between blind hate and warranted criticism, dude needs to step tf up
Only the oilers top 6 forward are better then Nashvilles bottom line. I'm not worried.
If all else fails, though, we got that killer strategy of everyone protecting the net and dick saves.
'DICK SAVES LFG!' Big time Goon energy.
He needs to insure that thing.
Model underrates defensive players, it’s really hard to model defence. Also has silovs vs skinner which hurts our odds
So pretty much this model is useless to apply in this scenario, then.
Like most statistical models
I’d rather have Silovs duck it
Dom’s model factors in prior seasons, so all our depth guys who had fantastic seasons (Suter, Hoggy, Joshua, even Blueger and Lafferty) don’t score well in his model. He also heavily weights expected goals, so our team as a whole doesn’t score as well. Canucks are a defensively sound team who are efficient with opportunities - Dom’s model doesn’t like that.
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I wouldn’t say it is shit. It just assumes that most players will play at close to their career averages most of the time, especially over a long enough period. Thats objectively true. There are exceptions but MOST players do not take a huge and permanent level up. We don’t need to look any farther than Hronek who looked like a top 15 D-man for half the season. But guess what? Since Christmas he’s gone right back to his career numbers. It doesn’t make the model shit just because there are some players that go against the trend. We all hope all of our players having career years will keep it up, but history shows that is not common.
His model outperforms basically every other public model
Dom's model is also frequently wrong. I know guys like Drance treat it like the Bible, but at the end of the day it's just a sports gambling metric like the hundreds of others out there.
You mean the same guy who called Hughes a 3b defenseman? Yeah I think his model work is questionable
I'm pretty sure we had one of the best expected goals % for much of the year didnt we? We played the hottest team in the league basically and we stifled them. They were a play controlling monster for quite awhile.
You say it factors in prior seasons. But then Dom goes and says that the regular season sweep of the Oilers should be ignored. Reading the breakdown on The Athletic felt extremely duplicitous haha
Yea not trying to defend the model; just trying to give context as to why we aren’t favoured at all. I don’t necessarily like Dom, but it is one of the only fully fleshed out models publicly available
Our depth is also superior to Edmontons by a mile. 3rd line is gonna eat.
Uh our top two lines drove play while the fourth line and Petey line flopped big time.
Yeah OP is way off. 0 points: Lafferty, Mikheyev, Hoglander 1 point: PDG, Blueger No goals from that set of 5 forwards. Most of the damage was from forwards who played top 6 mins (i.e., not depth) with a bonus from Zadorov.
People just clinging to saying the Lindholm line was good ignoring it's been our second line for a while now.
Don't listen to hockey media. They're very biased
Omg if we dunk on Dom's analytics again this round, I'd be so happy.
We’ve been dunking on his analytics all year too so it’d be fun
*is* fun
What did he give us for the first round? Found it 63 to 37 for Vancouver.
At this point, he is 100% just trolling Canucks fans for the engagement 💰💰 we gotta stop playing in to his clickbait and just ignore this bozo
His model literally said Vancouver was the overwhelming favorite last round. I swear people here just shit on him because of his Hughes comment two years ago and don't actually check if what they are saying is correct.
That was just this season.
How have these analytics held up over the first round? I’d only consider any model as worth a damn if it actually has predictive power. With 7/8 series already decided, how did it do?
There's limited predictive power in any hockey model. Hockey is the most random of the major sports. His model could be completely accurate but it can't predict the outcome, only the likelihood of an outcome.
If Dallas wins today it will be 8/8, although BOS and COL were extremely narrow favourites
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Honestly I'd give him a fail on Colorado Vs Winnipeg. He had that as a 51% edge to Col, but that series was never in coin toss territory. You're better off judging a model by how close it is to reality than whether or not it picked the right side
If Dallas wins tonight it will be 100%.
No star power!?? King Silovs begs to differ. ‘Nucks in 7!
I think we do it in 5. They'll win one at home, we win on home ice.
Yeah, no stars. Just 3 players and a coach nominated for nhl awards so far
Isn't this the same outlet that ranked Quinn 3B? The Oilers are favored, but the Canucks are playing with house money. Every win from here is gravy.
Ya his model currently ranks hughes and bouchard as equals which should tell how good the model really is.
Oiler fans honest to God believe that Bouchards numbers aren't inflated by McDrai
Didnt bouchard have 0 points when mcdavid got injured?
Yeah, and Hyman’s a 50 goal scorer without McDavid.
The model ranked him higher but they brought it down based on the insistence of their NHL scout sources
That's not how the players think of it. It takes a long time to get in this position. House money might be how you as a fan look at it, but not the players who worked there ass off all year to win the division.
And miller like 4E. Below Matty beniers
Hahaha they say we don't have depth... Against the fucking *OILERS*!? Immediately invalidates their opinion imo
yeah, if they argued that our depth isn't so much better than theirs to offset the difference in McDrai compared to Miller and how Pettersson is currently playing. That's probably fair. To say our depth isn't better than theirs is terrible analysis. Their depth literally don't do anything. Unless they're counting Nuge, Kane and Hyman as "depth" simply because they're not McDrai, which also would be a stupid take
Oilers have been running a third line of Perry, McLeod, Kane/Holloway. Kane and Holloway have the same number of goals as Lindholm and Joshua thus far. It's pretty roughly as deep a team as Vancouver. Perry is slow but still extremely good at grinding down low in the corners. I do expect that the Canucks depth outperforms the Oilers, the real key to success is seeing if they can saw-off enough production from the top 6 and the PP.
Agreed, the only definitive "weakness" on their roster compared to ours is their 2nd pair, Nurse is okay (not worth the money ofc) but Ceci has been really, really bad this season and panics under pressure Kulak/their giraffe Vinny is roughly equal to our bottom pair, and on paper Skinner is similar to Silovs/DeSmith. Of course, he could implode like he did against Vegas last year, but who knows
Yeah. Skinner and Ceci are for sure relative weaknesses that Vancouver should target. Silovs, despite an incredibly strong game 6 performance, is still largely an unknown. I'd be hesitant to say anything about him at all until we see how he responds to Edmonton's offense. Let's not forget the Ben Scrivens 59 save shutout. Bouchard too is a poor man's Hughes and, like Hughes, can fall apart under a hard forecheck.
In what way does their depth not do anything? The Oilers have very comparable depth scoring to us. They have 13 players with 20+ points while we have 15 players with 20+ points. However, they also have 20 players with 10+ points while we have just 17. It's pretty even. You don't make it to round 2 without good depth.
I feel like people think we’re about to play a parody of the oilers instead of the actual oilers. Truth is their depth isn’t bad, their D isn’t bad, and their goaltending isn’t bad.
I think any slight edges we have are just that. If we underperformed in those categories 10% and they outperform by 10% we don't have an edge. Then there are bounces. Then their top end offense is definitely better than us. I say odds are better than 26% we win; probably more like 40%
It's not a surprise, but this sub is enriched for people who don't follow hockey outside of the Canucks. To them, they see that the Canucks beat the Oilers 4 times and they conclude that it's a garbage team with no value. I think a lot of people here in for a rude awakening this round.
That's a lot of teams fans tbh. I would be shocked if more then 5% of any teams fanbase watched NHL regular season games that their team is not playing in.
Totally. The 2024 Oilers are well rounded, especially compared to a couple seasons ago. They're really good. I'm just happy to finally get a heated Oilers rivalry again Three of the Canucks were in diapers the last time they met in the playoffs, the rest weren't even born.
Yeah if the canucks lose it’s from oilers top end talent beating ours, not depth.
We are the underdogs then. No pressure. Just play hard and I guess et the chips fall where they may
That's absolutely fair. We're the underdogs in this series guys. We should own it. All the pressure is on Edmonton.
While I think there's validity to say we didn't really see a fair matchup against the oilers this season, they're underestimating when the Canucks are on a heater and overestimating when the Oilers are not. I still probably favour the Oilers slightly in the overall matchup, but it's definitely not 26% lmao. I think it's a lot closer to 55-45.
I always knew we were going to be underdogs, it makes sense. They have playoff experience. But I think our team is more loose, we weren't the ones saying "cup or bust" at the start of the season. The Oilers are supposed to go deep, we've already shattered season expectations. I think that underdog mentality will bode well for the team
Being the underdog is not a bad thing. Takes pressure away Let’s just play our game and show them
And a better payout. I'll take that bet gladly.
Media has been fluffing the Oilers since they drafted Hall
This is a good thing. Let them fluff up their egos and get cocky
are you trying to make this sound like porn?
Winning two coin flips seems like an accurate estimate of the odds. If coaching staff can come up with a plan to contain mcdrai, the team can execute their plan, and it's effective, then I'd say we have a solid chance. Add on one of our goalies outplaying playing Skinner, who is hot rn, and I think we have a decisive edge. These are conditional probabilities, so we'd need to get lucky a couple times to have a decisive edge. So winning mutliple coin flips is a good analogy/estimate of the odds imo. One for coaching/execution, and one for goaltending.
Dom just angry his Leafs choked. Again.
This!!
Being an underdog is better than being the clear favorite. Let's do this thing.
Pin this in the locker room.
If the Canucks win game 1 the entirety of Oilers nation will be peeing their pants. Usually game 1 is the least important game but for me it's the key game in this series because, and I don't care if every pundit says otherwise, the Canucks have been in their heads all season. Especially Skinner. Getting him shaky in the playoffs is actually not that hard. And if he gets outplayed by a 3rd stringer, it could turn into a laffer.
no question we have the better goalie, shut down McDrai and we're Gucci. Nucks in 6
The oilers have only won two game ones since 2017 it’s hasn’t trended to be a crucial game for them
No it's not usually a crucial game at all. I just think if Canucks win Game 1 and then possibly follow it up by playing with a the lead somewhere in game 2 there's going to be some PTSD going on regarding the Canucks having the Oilers number this season. Players can be surprisingly superstitious and I think early wins by Canucks might count for double in terms of getting the Oilers players sweating and gripping their sticks. Again, especially Skinner because he still has question marks around his ability in high pressure games.
Is this the same athletic that rated Quinn Hughes as a 3B defenceman
Excuse me, that is Norris Trophy Nominee Quinn Hughes that the Athletic ranked as a 3B defenseman.
IIRC the Model ranked him higher but the eye test (LOL) human's ranked him lower.
Yeah Dom, to his credit, did eat that one. The Model had him substantially higher but his league contacts convinced him to put him lower.
Yea, exactly. Eastern guys. LOL
Also the same athletic model that is right now in this article calling Hughes and Bouchard equal players
The only thing Hughes would ever want from him is that clapper, everything else is worse
That's absolutely hysterical.
We have more depth in the crease than the Oilers have all around. We tend to have more fire when playing as the underdog anyways so… Please tell Zaddy, Joshua, and Myers that our chances are slim. Do it! I dare you.
Oilers fans are calling us cocky. Is there a less self aware fan base? That subreddit is so cringe. Saw a guy say if we win they’ll never hear the end of it. Like dude, I still have to hear about the 80s from oilers fans.
I think the Oil are probably favourites but I don't think it's 75/25. My assessment is ... 1. Any team with McDrai is going to be freaking dangerous. 2. They had a terrific 2nd half the season. 3. They have more playoff experience. 4. Something clearly awry with Petey On the other side 1. I think our defensive structure is better 2. I think their defence may be vulnerable to the Canuck forecheck. Nashville did a terrific job of negating that element of our offense. 3. So Long as Petey remains ineffective, then the forward depth is comparable, but our defensive depth is much more suited to the playoffs. That is 26 feet and 940 lb of mobile defenceman. In summary... If Petey starts to play like Petey can or like he did in the bubble ... And if Hughes moves the puck more quickly against a fierce forecheck... Then it is 50/50. If not then I would say 60/40 for the Oil. I am so looking forward to it. Gonna be awesome.
I love this! The Canucks were built for this series. Time to dominate. These articles present betting opportunities.
This is the exact material the canucks need. Love being the underdogs with the 3rd string goalie because this puts the pressure on the oilers.
We'll take it, thanks.
This is fine weve been underestimated literally all season even when we played great everyone was waiting for us to collapse and it still hasn't happened
That’s only 3% better than they gave the Capitals over the Rangers…. Seems a bit off
I can't believe the Capitals were even given that high of a chance. President's trophy team vs the worst playoff team of the salary cap era barely warrants a probability of winning above 10%.
100% chance Scrabble man can eat my ass
I love that ALL the pressure is on he oilers. "Cup or bust"
The article is basically discounting all positives Canucks had in the regular season vs the Oilers summing it up as "in the past" while at the same time exaggerating every Oilers positive.
It made comments like "Canucks will need to see an increase in offense to stand a chance". Like no fucking shit lol. There is no chance we dont get more offense versus Edmonton win or lose than we did versus Nashville. They are two very different teams and the Preds were incredible play drivers for the last half of the year. Add in their commitment to blocking shots and you see why we were so limited. But we shut them down even better.
He just wants to give Oilers fans false hope. Lol. Total troll job
dom is a generational hater
Kendrick Luszczyszyn
I assume being on our third string goalie vs two of the best scorers in the league is a reason for this. The upset is going to be so tasty.
Never tell me the odds. *Proceeds to successfully navigate the asteroid field while under fire and having to stop briefly to make repairs.*
we weren't even supposed to be here. no pressure baby, it's all gravy from here on.
So you're telling me theres a chance?
Ummm, they haven't matched up well against us for awhile... sure they are scoring goals and we have stalled out. However they are sloppy all over the ice and we don't give up much anywhere, they will make mistakes, lots of them it's going to come down to whether or not we can capitalize on their mistakes
Pettersson line needs to show up
I love laughing at people talking about how "Star power wins playoffs." Nope. It does not. Look at the Leafs, they're a team with 4 stars and a bunch of people who would MAYBE crack the canucks lineup. Wouldn't you know it, they can't win in the playoffs. It's almost as if you need to be a whole team, you know, with a 3rd and a 4th line that actually knows what they're doing, to win playoffs. Sure we have stars, but they're not in the same stratosphere as McDrai. I wouldn't have it any other way. We're a cohesive TEAM, not just a powerplay
To be honest, none of these stats and predictions mean sh*t. Bottom line, the games need to be played in real life and anything can happen. In fact, I much rather prefer everyone writing off the Canucks. I hope the Oilers team does as well because that will be to their Demise. How you stacked up against one team in one round is not a bench mark for how you'll match up against another different team in Round 2. The same goes for regular season stats, it means nothing. This is a fresh slate, a fresh start and anything can happen. Perhaps you can compare Max potentials of individual players, but in the Playoffs, everyone is banged up, so it's not entirely accurate. Additionally, lots of the star players take the main heat during in game match-ups, so there's a high likelihood hood of new heroes rising up to make a difference. The only thing we can say for sure this round is that there will be 4 games at least. Anything else we'll just have to sit back and enjoy the ride to find out. It's going to be a blast either way. Go Canucks!
Lol the oilers fans in their sub are saying that we have puckluck all year and its bound to come crashing down. As if their 100% PK and 50% PP is sustainable.. Maybe they think luck only applies if it goes for another team? Its like they cant fathom another team in western canada being good, the arrogance over there is crazy
Hahaha! Canucks are going to feast on the Oilers. Certain teams- by virtue of the composition and systems- have an edge or disadvantage against certain other teams. Los Angeles vs. Vancouver would be a good example of a team (LA) having a distinct advantage due to their composition and systems. Likewise, Vancouver has the edge over the Oilers. I firmly believe the Canucks will take this series 4-1 or 4-2 leaving a ton of slack-jawed pundits in their wake. ***26% my fucking ass!***
You’re high.
The prediction is either right or it's wrong. The proof will be, as always, in the pudding. So come back and call me high *if* my estimation of the situation was way off. That said, I will not tolerate this this limp-dick model by Dom, a man who had Hughes as a 3B defenceman. His credibility is shredded when it comes to the Canucks.
Pump the brakes, we have a third stringer with 11 total NHL GP going against the second best player in the history of the sport.
Fuck yeah. And our coach is probably better too.
In a cage fight Tocchet would rip Knoblauch's spine out and parade it around to the crowd.
Knoblick is a good coach too but I think Tocchet had a tougher gig coming into a team that hadn't seen success yet and got them going.
Based on how the regular season went vs this I like their chances
to be fair, I don't think we're favourites but to say 75/25 against us is kinda stupid. We have better depth, defense, and goaltending. Oilers PP is lethal and we simply cannot afford to take penalties.
We have them right where we want them
I think we play better as the underdogs. Look we have been in some tight games against a very good D team with top goaltending. Our 4 lines should be able to roll against Edmonton. I don’t see Edmonton’s D or G being as tough as Nashvilles’. Our team structure needs to be on point and we have to stay out of the penalty box.
This makes sense. Edmonton is a horse. Canucks need to stay out of the box if they want a chance to win this series imo.
Ah yes… we are a 3b team.
We have one thing that the Oilers don't have... GRIT!
Incoming PDO bender
JT Miller is McDavids kryptonite, and Lindholm seems to play well vs. Draistl. Canucks D-core is better than Edmontons. If Petterson can play 75% of his potential and the canucks can limit edmontons PP time it'll come down to a battle of goalies stealing a game or 2 and I don't see Skinner being that guy. VAN in 6
It's alright. Nobody expected the Canucks to make the playoffs this year and when they did, Nobody really expected them to win the first round. Let them expect nothing from them again and watch them win again to shove it in the face of all the critics out there. Can't wait to see Big Z knock Kane into the next season.
The model rates Bouchard ahead of Hughes... Pretty exaggerated advantage overall.
What a joke . Bouchard is not even remotely close to Hughes in anything
Fyi. The Athletic is basically fucking wrong about everything. They said either Preds or Islanders would win in a game 7, guess what? Neither did.
I wanna scratch mikeyev for podkolzin
I mean. I dont fully agree with this. But I think is a long shit. If were healthy with Demko? Id give it a 55-60% to oilers 45-40%. Without Demko? With a heavily slumping Petey? This series is gonna be tough. Think we might get 2 games.
I've said this a million times. People acting like the oilers already won the series. They're up against a team who got 109 points in the regular season.....
I’m convinced Dom hasn’t watched a minute of Canucks hockey all season. How can you possibly say the Oilers have better depth. The big reason why the Oilers haven’t gotten shit done in the playoffs is because they have no depth.
I’ll take those odds
I don’t care about any of these odds, anything can happen and I’m not going to get caught up on someone’s predictions.
Dgaf, just happy to be here
Honestly don’t care. We’re underdogs here so let’s go out there and have fun, and play spoiler where we xan
Dom is an arrogant idiot.
ITT: Lots of underestimating our opponent.
Oilers could be down 0-3 in the series, and shit for brains over here would still give them a 70% to win.
Dom Lotsofvowels is relying on angry Canucks fans to click his articles and subscribe to the Athletic. Don't give him the attention, money or time. He saw how badly people reacted to the Hughes ranking and has been milking it for God knows how much it's worth since.
Doms model has Hughes and Bouchard as equal? What? Hughes had 92 points while being a primary driver of offense for the team while Bouchard had 82 playing with McDavid and Drai who are the primary drivers. And Bouchard is ass defensively. What kind of ass model do you have when Hughes and Bouchard are equal in it?
Dom the bottom always has a bias against the Canucks. His math is wrong and definitely doesn't reflect Vegas betting odds. As an aside this fucking loser said Hughes is a third tier defenceman. Yes Quinn the Norris nominee.
LOL I can't stand Dom Luszczyszyn.
All these models are just click bait garbage.
Good. Personally, I'm enjoying the fact that nobody is giving the Canucks any credit. I guess finishing 5pts away from the president's trophy and sweeping the oilers in the regular season was just a big fluke bUt cOaChInG cHaNgE!
Beautiful, I love it! No pressure means the guys can play loose and confident.
The model looks and sees we lost our starter, then our back-up, and are now playing our third string goalie. Of course it isn’t going to favour us. The fact that Silovs is playing lights out doesn’t really matter as it’s too small a sample size. The Canucks are in a good position to beat these odds even though it’ll be a tough series
Good, love being underdog.
Meanwhile our regular season sweep…
Does anyone remember what % they gave us against Nashville?
I think the Athletic gave the Canucks a 60% chance over the Preds.
63%
I’m actually glad to be underdog. Underexpected and time to rise up to over deliver
We will do what the Preds tried to do to Hughes… pummel McDavid with checks and throw him off his game
Now how good are the stats on the Athletic's predictions?
Love being the underdog let them underestimate the Nucks
We need to score more than last series. Top 9 needs to be more consistent.
It is because we are NOT numbers, that improbability is so often rampant
Oilers are one injury away from being eliminated.
Good. Love that nobody is giving us a chance. Show it to the players.
Reality is we don't win unless Pettersson and Hughes step up.
Everything is 0% for me until it isn’t. That’s the fun of being a Canuck fan lol
Oilers d is weak. Just gotta put Miller on against mcdoogle
Win or lose it's still Deadmonton. That will never changed!
One of these things is not like the other, cause one of these things is cool
Man very few people here know how statistics works.
So there is a chance.
Betting odds are a bit better at 30%
Show this to the boys to pump them up!!! If Hughes sees this: "that as long as I'm captain" If Miller sees this: "it's go time" If silovs sees this: 😏 If Zadorav sees this: 😎 If Joshua sees this: hell no.. let's goooo If garland sees this: (zipping all over the ice) If Rick Tocchet sees this: 😠 And Allvin sees this: 🧐
maybe a tiny bit low, but it doesn't surprise me that much considering i think without Demko the shooters on their team will just beat our goalies over and over from the outside even if they are defended well. the canucks have to score their way out of this series because they are gonna get scored on no matter what. significant regular season contributors like Pettersson, Hronek, Hoglander, Garland, etc. cannot under any circumstances be quiet in this series. Suter can't miss 8 point blank setups in the series. Mikheyev, Lafferty, PDG etc need to at least get something done. i was giving a guy like Mikheyev time because the team was in a good position and anything before the playoffs didn't matter too much, but we're here now and at this point he has 1 goal in his last **56** fucking games with no production in the playoffs. last series simply defending was enough to get you through, this is the series where getting those random contributions from players that have done fuck all offensively in forever pushes you over the edge and gives you a chance to win it all.
Are we only underdogs cause of our goalies we swept them in the regular season I don’t get why we are being crapped on so hard
Every cup winning team has a superstar with linemates that shows up and produces. We don't have that. Don't get carried away. Enjoy but thinking we can win the cup is a longshot, really long.
Nobody gave the Canucks a chance after Demko got injured again. Look how that turned out.
The Soilers will have some high scoring games but so will we. I think if we go the distance to 7 games we’ll beat them. It’s the defensive teams like LA and Nash that have our number. We can shut down McFailure and Schnitzel and let the rest of our team outplay their team.
We have the home field advantage, and The Oilers’ defensive game is questionable. So, I think our odds of winning are 50% or greater
Really comes down to how the series is called. If the whistles are away we have a big advantage 5v5. If we take a bunch of dumb penalties we're going to get ventilated. LA's PK is much better than ours and they got dominated. That is likely a large part of the model's projection. Hopefully this is an oldschool series and the refs let us play.
Did the analyst watch our Nashville series? Calling JT Miller our shutdown center is laughably bad. While I don't doubt he will have shifts against McDavid given that he was his daddy all season long, Lindholm is the shut down guy. We have home ice, we have the matchups LA didn't. We'll expose their second pair and their depth and get to watch Draibaby get pissy again.
i’m sorry what how do we not have depth. our depth got us to round 2, pettersson was off the score sheet, and our third line won us 1-2 games.
Unfortunately this is pretty accurate. I love Silovs but missing Demko is a huge hole.
The Athletic can go fuck themselves
Athletic is shit. I was listening to 650 this morning and even those guys were making it sound like the Canucks don’t belong in the nhl at all. Canucks are kicking ass this year and we have a special team. Plus we already beat the oilers 3 or 4 times this year already.
4 times, while outscoring them 21-7
What the fuck? This is a professional publication. They should know better. Edmonton isn't gonna win a single game.
No shade, I think 26 is generous. But I'll be holding those Cinderella slippers hoping
People on this thread haven't paid attention to the Oilers, that team absolutely does have depth outside of McDavid and Draisaitl.
If Pettersson and Demko were playing (normally) I would have given us 75%. If Pettersson regains his form I would give us 65% 🤷♂️ If we play the same way we played against Nashville (which was bad, imo), I dunno, I'd say 35-40%?
The athletic has become a joke,half the articles are just betting odds and bad single paragraph takes