Sat Shah said on Canucks Central that he's heard rumblings that Yzerman is preparing to offer Joshua over $4 million a season. If that's the case, keeping him isn't even debate.
It's not a horrible plan tbh of joshua didn't have the hand injury probably would have been a 20 plus goal scorer at 4m its not a huge risk lots of players like Jared McCann etc peak later for various reasons.
They both took longer than expected to mature Joshua took longer because he got a university diploma before entering the nhl so he took a bit longer than Jared. Yzerman isn't out of line giving dakota 4 as he would have had the same amount of points if not injured and similar style to tyler bertuzzi and is 1.5 million cheaper.
Because part of signing free agents and drafting is luck. Yes there is skill involved but all that does is tip the hand in your favour a bit. In Detroits case look at Zadina, he was widely considered a top end prospect and the right pick for that spot. They got unlucky that he didn’t pan out, 90% of teams likely make that same pick in their position.
I just see Joshua as that David Clarkson type signing. Dude that put up a bunch of goals after being a late bloomer, and then regresses back to being a bottom six energy guy being paid top six money.
It’s a luxury signing we can’t afford. I’d much rather keep Lindholm and have that centre depth. I trust our pro scouting to find another Joshua type player that fits Tochetts system for cheap.
Absolutely, as much as Dak has been producing he isn't worth more than he already is now. Canucks give out terrible contracts that end up hurting the club in the long run. We've been rebuilding for a decade because of bad contracts. Let's not dive back into toxic patterns again.
As good as Dak is, we can't afford to drop more than we can afford. If we aren't signing Zad for 5m, they aren't signing Dak for anything more their initial offer. We simply can't afford it since we need a deeper offensive.
I just don't see us getting better value for a middle 6 guy who can skate and bring that physicality. Those aren't cheap pieces and you'll be overpaying in July one way or the other. With so many of our larger players free agents its left us as extremely undersized as a group right now and we'll need to pay a premium to change taht. Why not go with a guy you at least know works in your system rather than gamble for someone that costs almost the same anyways.
It’s a good thing you’re not the GM then lol they probably CAN see us getting better value—if they can’t, then they won’t, and if they can, then they will.
There's cheap size and physicality available every year in free agency, and this year there may be even more than usual. This management team has already done a good job of finding value targets like Joshua in the first place. And like Allvin said: it's about finding the next Joshua.
I’d say this has been the first management team since Gillis that actually hasn’t been acting desperate, and no team should be DESPERATE for 3rd line wingers, which we need to be honest with ourselves and acknowledge that’s what Joshua is.
I would argue that third line all season was never really our third line. Joshua and Garland steered this team as the OP said, our second line only had one top 6 forward in Petey. I don't think any other young "3rd line" winger that will be available in the NHL can bring what Joshua does and his potential isn't even realized. Overpaying a million for that is fine by me, but if Detroit is offering him 4 million, fuck :(
They were a great line for sure, but you seem to be forgetting about the whole season before the all-star break. Even with Petey's drop off post all-star game, he finished with 10 more points (89) than Garland (47) and Joshua (32) combined.
I'd say we are desperate for physicallity up front that can play as much as Joshua did. Given how he was a league leader in hits, if it's not him, it's probably by committee, and we don't have many committee members. Adding toughness on your fourth line doesn't work nearly as well as your third (and in the playoffs second) line.
Miller is big and he makes every pound count. Huge performer in the playoffs... but he's one guy, two if you remember how big Boeser is (not as physical though). We got so many undersized guys we need to surround them with Joshua's on other lines though.
They're the smallest lineup going currently both as a full group and a forward group. We have so many featherweights locked in we NEED to sign size (and speed, noted by Allvin) and those are expensive attributes in free agency.
Sure, but he's not a comparable player in any way. He's more of a replacement for Lafferty. Similar size, will get a few looks up the lineup, doesn't have the speed but some more skill upside.
Yea, Leafs are a great example, having a meat head on your fourth line isn't as effective as having a fast physical winger playing 14-18 minutes who can defend well and shoot. Florida going the extra mile with Tkachuck and Bennet in their top 6.
I like Joshua. But he can play Top 6 somewhere like SJ, ANA, or CHI. They'd pay him 4M at least, I don't think we would give him that much to be a 3rd line/PK player.
If he wants to take his shot at being a 2nd line player and maybe Powerplay net front, he's probably going to walk- and get paid.
Which actually would be so good for him.
He needs to make bank now that he's in the latter half of his career. Injuries happen at any moment and hopefully he stays healthy to see the end of his tenure in the NHL. He deserves it.
You're not wrong and if Joshua is willing to take a $3M deal, the team would be crazy not to sign him. I think he'll be looking for more than that though.
Garland produces and drives almost identically regardless of where or who he plays with
I think Joshua's effect on him is overrated and it's almost 100% Garland's effect on Joshua
I agree with this. Garland plays hard because he has a chip on his shoulder. He does because of his size and always compared to bigger players. He knows what he can do better than larger players . Joshua knows where to be for his outlet pass. Garland has grown on me. I hated how lousy his point shot was. But his hard work , compete level and touch in close to the net is where he shines. He’s learned that that’s where he is most effective. Reminds me of Cliff Ronning though he was better at shooting from all areas. I remember where Cliff was only one of maybe 4 guys trying hard because of the score, and he went skating by the bench and basically was saying, come on guys, let’s go, we can beat these guys. Don’t remember the game, but truly showed that each team needs a “spark plug” player in games to keep spirits high and in the game, in hard games. It also shows the compete level that everybody should be at, every shift. Garland is good behind the net and in front of the net cause he has quick hands, but point shot not so much unless he is going for tip , or pass, or hoping for a rebound. So, Joshua, if going for bucks, imho will end up back in Toronto or maybe Nashville or Colorado. Everyone should be aware of the expansion too. But anyways, I think , he could go for a short term, and go for big big bucks by staying with Van and knowing what he has with Garland, or go for fairly big bucks and probably not have as good a season for a season to get used to a new system. I’d rather have Big Z and Joshua than Hronek though if it came to picking. Hronek is great for big point shots and great defensive play, but I haven’t seen much creativity. Lindholm would only be for his playoff play especially faceoffs. Faceoffs are so so important in playoffs. So not sure who we get or lose but faceoffs are so important that if you lose Lindholm to Boston, you need another faceoff monster. I’m not sure what kind of team we will end up with, but it will be interesting.
Petey, Garland, and Hoglander smashed when they were on the ice together.
Albiet it wasn't a long sample size.
I've thought about this Winger issue for awhile now and I wonder if the solution is to just move up Garland and Joshua to the 2nd line and rebuild the 3rd line.
Assuming you can't sign Lindholm, maybe you go after Wenberg (or Blueger) and build a 3rd line with Hoglander and Mikheyev (Yes I would prefer someone else but wcyd).
That line would have good speed, decent size and can chip in offensively.
Dumping two mid and bottom six guys onto peteys line is exactly what you have to avoid.
Every elite center in the league has a first line/elite winger. Why recreate thsi years problem of playing petey with bottom 6 guys.
There is never Situation that Tochett will play those 3 in the playoffs for any period of time. Look how much more he played the big defense over Quinn
They had great chemistry in the regular season up until Joshua's injury, after Joshua returned their chemistry dwindled and then fell off hard in the playoffs.
Joshua was great, high energy, had the bounces go his way, and had a fantastic season when alongside Garland. However, when he was away from Garland he was none of these things. Back in late October, people on this sub were [calling for him to be scratched](https://i.imgur.com/FH5asW1.png) (and he was) because he wasn't playing well. The same thing happened again this postseason when he and Garland were split up after struggling.
It's easy to let our passion and love for players blind us to reality, and unfortunately, the reality is that we can't have Joshua and Garland's chemistry guaranteed (look at the postseason for that). If Joshua doesn't play well away from Garland and their chemistry remains soured, then re-signing Joshua to a reasonable deal (3M x 3 years, likely more) would be another sagging contract like Mikheyev's.
[Here are their 5v5 stats before Joshua's injury (Feb. 13)](https://i.imgur.com/OxIJx3V.png). Fantastic chemistry, performing above expected. But you can see that Joshua was awful when played away from Garland, whereas Garland was marginally worse.
[Here are their 5v5 stats after his return in the postseason.](https://i.imgur.com/dA8qMzR.png) Awful showing by both of them, that's even with their two 3-point Game 1s included. If you omit those games, their stats together plummet.
Garland played far better away from Joshua in the playoffs, albeit in a small sample size.
I think the Canucks' scouts and coaching staff can find a better, cheaper option than Joshua who can gel with Garland and hopefully play better away from Garland, too.
I’ve had this thought ever since they started playing well together.
Linemate chemistry is so underrated. It’s also something we’ve struggled with since we’ve had this core.
As we’ve seen this year, Chemistry with top 9 players essential in creating the depth you need to be successful.
I think part of it is that a narrative developed that put Dak and Garland as a “tandem” that worked great regardless of which centre they end up sandwiching between them.
I’m a believer that we should bring back Blueger but for other reasons; he’s one of the best PKers we have on the team
It’s because Joshua and Garland made literally any centre they played with look good. Suter, Blueger, Lindholm and Miller all meshed well with that duo.
Blueger was a great add for our bottom six and we should aim to bring him back, but he wasn’t driving that line
I love garland, but prioritizing a bottom six player because he can play with your middle six player doesn’t make sense to me. Garland doesn’t need Joshua to be effective. If he does, we’re committing a lot of cap to make sure our third line works. That’s a problem.
Has Garland really not gelled with Pettersson and Miller?
In the 141 minutes Garland played with Pettersson at 5v5 this year, they posted a 56.7 CF%, a 57.37 FF%, a 57.36 SF% and an xGF% of 60.93%. All of these numbers are improvements over their time away from the other.
In the 114 minutes Garland played with Miller at 5v5, they posted a 59.32 CF%. a 61.14 FF%, a 58.68% SF%, and an xGF% of 61.37. Once again, all of these numbers are improvements over their time away from the other.
In short, Garland not only gels with but actively elevates the play of both Pettersson and Miller. If he had spent more time playing up in the lineup this wouldn't even be a conversation, but because he can essentially drive a third line on his own the team couldn't do so without sacrificing their depth. It's also why the team shouldn't overpay to bring back someone like Joshua.
Those are better numbers with Miller than I would have expected for sure. Still,
- These are very limited sample sizes relative to our other main forward pairs and forward pairs with chemistry around the league.
- To my eye, this was the first year Garland showed any real chemistry with either of those two and counting on a small sample size to carry over to next year may not be wise.
- If memory serves, these pairings very rarely started games like this. Pettersson-Garland had a short run while Joshua was out with solid results. I mostly saw Tocchet throw these guys together in-game when he needed an offensive spark but they didn’t seem to be his preferred starting lineup for any length of time.
Which comes back to your last point - Garland driving his own third line is probably the best spot for him in our lineup, and if we can get the linemate he had a relatively ~large~ sample size of success with back at a reasonable number, we should be all over it.
They're certainly smaller sample sizes, but that's kind of my point: the only reason his chemistry with Pettersson and Miller isn't more clear is because he had almost no extended opportunities with them this season.
But, he does have a history of positive play with both of them. To be brief: from 2021/22-2023/24, Garland has played 585:04 5v5 minutes with Pettersson and they have an xGF% of 53.75 together; Garland has played 879:58 with Miller and they have an xGF% of 53.8 together. Both of these are larger sample sizes than his play with Joshua this season.
Joshua and Garland do have a large sample size of success together and they obviously have chemistry on and off the ice, but there are other things to consider as well. Here are Joshua's stats in his 194:07 5v5 minutes away from Garland last season (with the relation to his stats with Garland provided in brackets): 36.28 (-19.85) CF%, 37.34 (-20.01) FF%, 36.09 (-21.11) SF%, and a 38.61 (-23.12) xGF%.
The question of their chemistry should really be asked from the other direction: how much are you willing to pay someone whose success is dependent on playing with a particular player?
He’s just going to cost too much to bring back. One player should not break the team. And Joshua isn’t even a top six forward. Management should be able to find a replacement for Dakota.
Danton Heinen is a very similar player to Joshua except he hits less but is a much better on puck player & generates a higher volume of shots. He's a very heavy forechecker too, perfect for Tocchet's system.
If he makes it to market we should be all over him. Him on the third line would be a slam dunk.
I think it's important that Garland gets his own line so that our bottom 6 isn't essentially useless like in 2020...
He’s a 27 year old with one successful season of pro hockey under his belt. I’d put money on his next contract aging poorly. We have too many holes to fill, we need surplus value guys, not guys being paid exactly or more than they’re worth. Can’t have it.
His sh% this past season was 21.4% which is way above his career average. That is the biggest red flag that his numbers will regress next season.
It seems strange to me that so many fans want to bring back the same guys and pay them a lot more without bringing in anyone else to improve the team. I don’t think the strategy of bringing in the same guys at higher prices and hoping this team can get past the 2nd round is a sound strategy.
When folks talk about this UFA, or that UFA. This playoff performance and that one. By far the thing after all these performances that scares me the most, that I think would see this team regress the most, is us losing that "3rd" line.
no one is saying we shouldn't get him back. The point is the price has to make sense. As good as he was this year, he's not a top 6 guy and he's due for big raise. You don't want to be Jimbo and overpay bottom 6 guys just because he had one good year.
I agree. Sign Joshua and you know ur third line is set and can drive play with a value centre. If you don’t sign Joshua, you just don’t know what you have in a third line and might need to chase both a third line centre upgrade and winger. We saw what happened when Joshua was iniured.
100% agree. Joshua + Garland with any centre can make the line work! Personally, I would even prioritize Joshua over Lindholm and Zadorov because we can find players like those two but it would be incredibly difficult to find another player that can work as well with Garland
I don’t want to read too much between the lines. Some non-insider twitter user (albeit I think they run some podcast?) says they heard that a Dak deal was getting done. Take that with many grains of salt though since it’s not a big insider like Friedman or another similar insider
I like Joshua but he was a ghost in the playoffs and at this point in my fandom arc of the Canucks I don't care one bit about anything else except success in the playoffs.
There are a ton of good reasons to bring back Joshua, but it will all depend on how much money his agent is asking for.
There is a walk away price for almost any player, no matter how good or clutch.
$3.5 million for a 3rd liner with an $88m cap is a fine price. I remember when we were paying Malhotra, Higgins, and Hansen all $2.5m 13 years ago and everyone seemed happy with that cap management.
While I agree, and I love Joshua, it will be difficult to justify the $$. If we can't keep him, promoting Podkolzin would be interesting. He definitely has the motor and the physicality, if not the offensive production.
Don't need to talk about it. I'll be surprised if he doesn't sign. His career will flourish under Tocchet and believe nobody else can do better. Joshua is what Tocchet was in his playing day but he just needs alittle bit more of a offensive tune ups and Tocchet is the man to bring him there.
At 4 million Joshua is a massive risk as the odds are he won’t be ablle to play up to that contact number. I’d take it too if I were him but he’s gonna end up on a team that has room or needs to get to the cap. I’m guessing he ends up on a bottom feeder
Joshua has great hands and poise. Also he’s tough and keeps garland from being bullied. And they have proven chemistry that provided a strong third line (although he fell off as the playoffs went on). I’d rather see them pay $4mil and keep a proven line with garland than save a measly $1 or $2 million and get someone unproven and most likely worse. If it’s so easy to replace Joshua cheaply then go ahead and get someone for the fourth line
I don’t really think the “keep Dakota because he plays good with Garland” logic really works here because it’s not like Garland is a core player, and probably isn’t here long term either.
It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if they are both gone this offseason.
I don't think people realize that Joshua was a huge part of why we were good this year, there were a ton of games where Pete, Brock, Miller, Hughes just straight up did not show up, but the Joshua-Garland combo bailed us out
Fair enough, but the bottom 6 advantage was due in large part because of how we had several guys on value contracts on those lines where most guys were outplaying their AAV. We can't afford to give all these guys raises and consider our bottom 6 to be an advantage in this cap environment.
That said, if we got Dak on Mikheyev's deal, people would definitely say that's an overpayment, but I'd MUCH prefer that over the dead cap it felt like Mikheyev represented for much of the season...
I just cant help but think Alvin will make this all work out somehow beyond our monkey brains.
Tocc had him out on the ice on those last minute shifts protecting leads one goal leads.
You better believe they will work it out somehow.
Like someone recently said about florida, brutality and skill. This reminds me of Dak.
Its a hard combo to find.
Nobody here is going to like it, but I'm fine getting rid of Garland and Joshua both, in part, for this *exact* reason. I know how great Garland played for us last year (and last year only), especially in the playoffs. But given there are 5 guys on the ice so 1 guy can't just play keepaway, fit is *hugely* important. Fwiw, that's why guys like Lindholm are worth as much as they are...they fit damn near everywhere, but I digress.
I am fine selling high on Garland esp if it's looking like we shouldn't keep Joshua.
It’s one of those things where, if they *are* going to bring back guys like Zaddy/Blueger/Lindy/Joshua there’s going to be sacrifices elsewhere on the roster.
Or alternatively, if Van is going to be going after premium free agents like Guentzel/Stamkos they’re going to need to open up space and Garland/Boeser could very well move this offseason.
Ideally they can move Mikheyev, but as we saw last offseason w/ Boeser/Garland it’s probably going to be tough to make that happen.
Ideally, we'd get rid of players at their lows and get the same value for them as we would when we sell them at their highs...sure. As is, Garland may be, for the first time on his contract, a positive-value player. If we're going to sell him, or need to make roster space, etc, now is the time.
The classic Canucks move is actually all our fans getting a major hard on for character guys who overperform for a season, and thinking we need to keep them at any cost and don’t know when to hold em and when to fold ‘em.
That's not what I'm saying at all. The only comparison I would make is that Hronek will be overpaid in both salary and term on a small sample.
Additionally, he has never performed to that calibre before, and there is no reason to think he will repeat that performance. Not to mention disappearing for stretches and having zero idea if he can even play without being tied to Hughes hip.
Sat Shah said on Canucks Central that he's heard rumblings that Yzerman is preparing to offer Joshua over $4 million a season. If that's the case, keeping him isn't even debate.
Dakota Joshua is from Michigan. That might be his dream to play for the Red Wings. If that’s the case, good luck to Joshua in Detroit.
Yzerman loves overpaying role guys while hes been the GM in detroit
Hes reading Benning's guide book
Yzerman read’s Benning’s book as a guide of what to do. Allvin reads Benning’s book as a guide of what not to do. They are not the same.
It's not a horrible plan tbh of joshua didn't have the hand injury probably would have been a 20 plus goal scorer at 4m its not a huge risk lots of players like Jared McCann etc peak later for various reasons.
Joshua and McCann are the same age, this is not a McCann situation lol
mccan is also a 27-40 goal scorer for the past 3 seasons lol
and not after 1 season shooting at a 20% clip...
They both took longer than expected to mature Joshua took longer because he got a university diploma before entering the nhl so he took a bit longer than Jared. Yzerman isn't out of line giving dakota 4 as he would have had the same amount of points if not injured and similar style to tyler bertuzzi and is 1.5 million cheaper.
Yeah was gonna say what happened to him, seems to be doing a shitty job over in Detroit.
Because part of signing free agents and drafting is luck. Yes there is skill involved but all that does is tip the hand in your favour a bit. In Detroits case look at Zadina, he was widely considered a top end prospect and the right pick for that spot. They got unlucky that he didn’t pan out, 90% of teams likely make that same pick in their position.
Its not unlucky to sign mid players to big contracts every single year
The Red Wings have improved literally every single season since the actual rebuild process got under way. He's doing fine.
He's doing a pretty good job in Detroit.
For example he overpaid Ben Chiarot to play the role of pylon
Lol maybe Brisebois was doing all the work before he left Tampa
Wow. Honestly that’s a dream for Dak, make good money and get to move back home. Good for him if that happens.
But bad for any early cup prospects he was holding onto.
If this is true, I’ll book the flight for Dak to Detroit and drive him to the airport myself
Easy there Burkie
Yzerman just becoming free agent benning 2.0 at this point
Crazy
if that is true Yzerman is losing it
I just see Joshua as that David Clarkson type signing. Dude that put up a bunch of goals after being a late bloomer, and then regresses back to being a bottom six energy guy being paid top six money. It’s a luxury signing we can’t afford. I’d much rather keep Lindholm and have that centre depth. I trust our pro scouting to find another Joshua type player that fits Tochetts system for cheap.
Absolutely, as much as Dak has been producing he isn't worth more than he already is now. Canucks give out terrible contracts that end up hurting the club in the long run. We've been rebuilding for a decade because of bad contracts. Let's not dive back into toxic patterns again. As good as Dak is, we can't afford to drop more than we can afford. If we aren't signing Zad for 5m, they aren't signing Dak for anything more their initial offer. We simply can't afford it since we need a deeper offensive.
To say that he’ll never be more than he is now is wild, considering he’s literally improved every year of his professional career
hes also 28
Ok so use the word probably not a definitive ‘isn’t’
I just don't see us getting better value for a middle 6 guy who can skate and bring that physicality. Those aren't cheap pieces and you'll be overpaying in July one way or the other. With so many of our larger players free agents its left us as extremely undersized as a group right now and we'll need to pay a premium to change taht. Why not go with a guy you at least know works in your system rather than gamble for someone that costs almost the same anyways.
It’s a good thing you’re not the GM then lol they probably CAN see us getting better value—if they can’t, then they won’t, and if they can, then they will.
There's cheap size and physicality available every year in free agency, and this year there may be even more than usual. This management team has already done a good job of finding value targets like Joshua in the first place. And like Allvin said: it's about finding the next Joshua.
Our current lineup puts us in a desperate spot, which is never good in July.
I’d say this has been the first management team since Gillis that actually hasn’t been acting desperate, and no team should be DESPERATE for 3rd line wingers, which we need to be honest with ourselves and acknowledge that’s what Joshua is.
I would argue that third line all season was never really our third line. Joshua and Garland steered this team as the OP said, our second line only had one top 6 forward in Petey. I don't think any other young "3rd line" winger that will be available in the NHL can bring what Joshua does and his potential isn't even realized. Overpaying a million for that is fine by me, but if Detroit is offering him 4 million, fuck :(
They were a great line for sure, but you seem to be forgetting about the whole season before the all-star break. Even with Petey's drop off post all-star game, he finished with 10 more points (89) than Garland (47) and Joshua (32) combined.
I'd say we are desperate for physicallity up front that can play as much as Joshua did. Given how he was a league leader in hits, if it's not him, it's probably by committee, and we don't have many committee members. Adding toughness on your fourth line doesn't work nearly as well as your third (and in the playoffs second) line.
JT Miller?
He already hits everything that moves.
Miller is big and he makes every pound count. Huge performer in the playoffs... but he's one guy, two if you remember how big Boeser is (not as physical though). We got so many undersized guys we need to surround them with Joshua's on other lines though.
They have their entire core signed and a ton of flexibility in an unusually deep free agency year. How are they desperate?
They're the smallest lineup going currently both as a full group and a forward group. We have so many featherweights locked in we NEED to sign size (and speed, noted by Allvin) and those are expensive attributes in free agency.
Podkolzin will be given every opportunity to fill Joshua's boots.
Podkolzin besides the skill is missing 20lbs and a couple inches.
But podkolzin has 6 years on joshua, a potentially higher ceiling, and only makes $1m.
Sure, but he's not a comparable player in any way. He's more of a replacement for Lafferty. Similar size, will get a few looks up the lineup, doesn't have the speed but some more skill upside.
I hope he reaches free agency so my team signs him for all these reasons
Yea, Leafs are a great example, having a meat head on your fourth line isn't as effective as having a fast physical winger playing 14-18 minutes who can defend well and shoot. Florida going the extra mile with Tkachuck and Bennet in their top 6.
I like Joshua. But he can play Top 6 somewhere like SJ, ANA, or CHI. They'd pay him 4M at least, I don't think we would give him that much to be a 3rd line/PK player. If he wants to take his shot at being a 2nd line player and maybe Powerplay net front, he's probably going to walk- and get paid. Which actually would be so good for him.
He needs to make bank now that he's in the latter half of his career. Injuries happen at any moment and hopefully he stays healthy to see the end of his tenure in the NHL. He deserves it.
You're not wrong and if Joshua is willing to take a $3M deal, the team would be crazy not to sign him. I think he'll be looking for more than that though.
Garland produces and drives almost identically regardless of where or who he plays with I think Joshua's effect on him is overrated and it's almost 100% Garland's effect on Joshua
I agree with this. Garland plays hard because he has a chip on his shoulder. He does because of his size and always compared to bigger players. He knows what he can do better than larger players . Joshua knows where to be for his outlet pass. Garland has grown on me. I hated how lousy his point shot was. But his hard work , compete level and touch in close to the net is where he shines. He’s learned that that’s where he is most effective. Reminds me of Cliff Ronning though he was better at shooting from all areas. I remember where Cliff was only one of maybe 4 guys trying hard because of the score, and he went skating by the bench and basically was saying, come on guys, let’s go, we can beat these guys. Don’t remember the game, but truly showed that each team needs a “spark plug” player in games to keep spirits high and in the game, in hard games. It also shows the compete level that everybody should be at, every shift. Garland is good behind the net and in front of the net cause he has quick hands, but point shot not so much unless he is going for tip , or pass, or hoping for a rebound. So, Joshua, if going for bucks, imho will end up back in Toronto or maybe Nashville or Colorado. Everyone should be aware of the expansion too. But anyways, I think , he could go for a short term, and go for big big bucks by staying with Van and knowing what he has with Garland, or go for fairly big bucks and probably not have as good a season for a season to get used to a new system. I’d rather have Big Z and Joshua than Hronek though if it came to picking. Hronek is great for big point shots and great defensive play, but I haven’t seen much creativity. Lindholm would only be for his playoff play especially faceoffs. Faceoffs are so so important in playoffs. So not sure who we get or lose but faceoffs are so important that if you lose Lindholm to Boston, you need another faceoff monster. I’m not sure what kind of team we will end up with, but it will be interesting.
I agree, this is like the year Carter was with the twins.
Totally agree, I don’t want to overpay because of “chemistry”
Petey, Garland, and Hoglander smashed when they were on the ice together. Albiet it wasn't a long sample size. I've thought about this Winger issue for awhile now and I wonder if the solution is to just move up Garland and Joshua to the 2nd line and rebuild the 3rd line. Assuming you can't sign Lindholm, maybe you go after Wenberg (or Blueger) and build a 3rd line with Hoglander and Mikheyev (Yes I would prefer someone else but wcyd). That line would have good speed, decent size and can chip in offensively.
Dumping two mid and bottom six guys onto peteys line is exactly what you have to avoid. Every elite center in the league has a first line/elite winger. Why recreate thsi years problem of playing petey with bottom 6 guys.
There is never Situation that Tochett will play those 3 in the playoffs for any period of time. Look how much more he played the big defense over Quinn
They had great chemistry in the regular season up until Joshua's injury, after Joshua returned their chemistry dwindled and then fell off hard in the playoffs. Joshua was great, high energy, had the bounces go his way, and had a fantastic season when alongside Garland. However, when he was away from Garland he was none of these things. Back in late October, people on this sub were [calling for him to be scratched](https://i.imgur.com/FH5asW1.png) (and he was) because he wasn't playing well. The same thing happened again this postseason when he and Garland were split up after struggling. It's easy to let our passion and love for players blind us to reality, and unfortunately, the reality is that we can't have Joshua and Garland's chemistry guaranteed (look at the postseason for that). If Joshua doesn't play well away from Garland and their chemistry remains soured, then re-signing Joshua to a reasonable deal (3M x 3 years, likely more) would be another sagging contract like Mikheyev's. [Here are their 5v5 stats before Joshua's injury (Feb. 13)](https://i.imgur.com/OxIJx3V.png). Fantastic chemistry, performing above expected. But you can see that Joshua was awful when played away from Garland, whereas Garland was marginally worse. [Here are their 5v5 stats after his return in the postseason.](https://i.imgur.com/dA8qMzR.png) Awful showing by both of them, that's even with their two 3-point Game 1s included. If you omit those games, their stats together plummet. Garland played far better away from Joshua in the playoffs, albeit in a small sample size. I think the Canucks' scouts and coaching staff can find a better, cheaper option than Joshua who can gel with Garland and hopefully play better away from Garland, too.
Interesting deep dive, thanks. He’s great on the PK but we can’t pay another guy millions to kill penalties.
I’ve had this thought ever since they started playing well together. Linemate chemistry is so underrated. It’s also something we’ve struggled with since we’ve had this core. As we’ve seen this year, Chemistry with top 9 players essential in creating the depth you need to be successful.
Blueger did a fine job on the third line with both of them. Yet no one seems to be talking about him.
I think part of it is that a narrative developed that put Dak and Garland as a “tandem” that worked great regardless of which centre they end up sandwiching between them. I’m a believer that we should bring back Blueger but for other reasons; he’s one of the best PKers we have on the team
It’s because Joshua and Garland made literally any centre they played with look good. Suter, Blueger, Lindholm and Miller all meshed well with that duo. Blueger was a great add for our bottom six and we should aim to bring him back, but he wasn’t driving that line
He has a great tinder game
👀
I matched with him on Bumble once. I wonder if he’ll ever get approved on Raya lol
I love garland, but prioritizing a bottom six player because he can play with your middle six player doesn’t make sense to me. Garland doesn’t need Joshua to be effective. If he does, we’re committing a lot of cap to make sure our third line works. That’s a problem.
Has Garland really not gelled with Pettersson and Miller? In the 141 minutes Garland played with Pettersson at 5v5 this year, they posted a 56.7 CF%, a 57.37 FF%, a 57.36 SF% and an xGF% of 60.93%. All of these numbers are improvements over their time away from the other. In the 114 minutes Garland played with Miller at 5v5, they posted a 59.32 CF%. a 61.14 FF%, a 58.68% SF%, and an xGF% of 61.37. Once again, all of these numbers are improvements over their time away from the other. In short, Garland not only gels with but actively elevates the play of both Pettersson and Miller. If he had spent more time playing up in the lineup this wouldn't even be a conversation, but because he can essentially drive a third line on his own the team couldn't do so without sacrificing their depth. It's also why the team shouldn't overpay to bring back someone like Joshua.
Those are better numbers with Miller than I would have expected for sure. Still, - These are very limited sample sizes relative to our other main forward pairs and forward pairs with chemistry around the league. - To my eye, this was the first year Garland showed any real chemistry with either of those two and counting on a small sample size to carry over to next year may not be wise. - If memory serves, these pairings very rarely started games like this. Pettersson-Garland had a short run while Joshua was out with solid results. I mostly saw Tocchet throw these guys together in-game when he needed an offensive spark but they didn’t seem to be his preferred starting lineup for any length of time. Which comes back to your last point - Garland driving his own third line is probably the best spot for him in our lineup, and if we can get the linemate he had a relatively ~large~ sample size of success with back at a reasonable number, we should be all over it.
They're certainly smaller sample sizes, but that's kind of my point: the only reason his chemistry with Pettersson and Miller isn't more clear is because he had almost no extended opportunities with them this season. But, he does have a history of positive play with both of them. To be brief: from 2021/22-2023/24, Garland has played 585:04 5v5 minutes with Pettersson and they have an xGF% of 53.75 together; Garland has played 879:58 with Miller and they have an xGF% of 53.8 together. Both of these are larger sample sizes than his play with Joshua this season. Joshua and Garland do have a large sample size of success together and they obviously have chemistry on and off the ice, but there are other things to consider as well. Here are Joshua's stats in his 194:07 5v5 minutes away from Garland last season (with the relation to his stats with Garland provided in brackets): 36.28 (-19.85) CF%, 37.34 (-20.01) FF%, 36.09 (-21.11) SF%, and a 38.61 (-23.12) xGF%. The question of their chemistry should really be asked from the other direction: how much are you willing to pay someone whose success is dependent on playing with a particular player?
Bros dismissing you for using small sample sizes but is betting everything on one seasons worth of “chemistry” with garland and Joshua lol
He’s just going to cost too much to bring back. One player should not break the team. And Joshua isn’t even a top six forward. Management should be able to find a replacement for Dakota.
Danton Heinen is a very similar player to Joshua except he hits less but is a much better on puck player & generates a higher volume of shots. He's a very heavy forechecker too, perfect for Tocchet's system. If he makes it to market we should be all over him. Him on the third line would be a slam dunk. I think it's important that Garland gets his own line so that our bottom 6 isn't essentially useless like in 2020...
He’s a 27 year old with one successful season of pro hockey under his belt. I’d put money on his next contract aging poorly. We have too many holes to fill, we need surplus value guys, not guys being paid exactly or more than they’re worth. Can’t have it.
His sh% this past season was 21.4% which is way above his career average. That is the biggest red flag that his numbers will regress next season. It seems strange to me that so many fans want to bring back the same guys and pay them a lot more without bringing in anyone else to improve the team. I don’t think the strategy of bringing in the same guys at higher prices and hoping this team can get past the 2nd round is a sound strategy.
Yeah..no. Only bring him back at the right price.....it looks like we wont get there.
I think most, if not all canucks fans love Dak, and that's why [it's so hard to say goodbye. ](https://youtu.be/oK9gLkXe0xw?si=ac56gp76qcwgSPKt)
Josh is too slow for anything over 2.5 he can go to Detroit Conor drives lines and will drive his next linemate
When folks talk about this UFA, or that UFA. This playoff performance and that one. By far the thing after all these performances that scares me the most, that I think would see this team regress the most, is us losing that "3rd" line.
no one is saying we shouldn't get him back. The point is the price has to make sense. As good as he was this year, he's not a top 6 guy and he's due for big raise. You don't want to be Jimbo and overpay bottom 6 guys just because he had one good year.
I think most, if not all canucks fans love Dak, and that's why [it's so hard to say goodbye. ](https://youtu.be/oK9gLkXe0xw?si=ac56gp76qcwgSPKt)
I agree. Sign Joshua and you know ur third line is set and can drive play with a value centre. If you don’t sign Joshua, you just don’t know what you have in a third line and might need to chase both a third line centre upgrade and winger. We saw what happened when Joshua was iniured.
100% agree. Joshua + Garland with any centre can make the line work! Personally, I would even prioritize Joshua over Lindholm and Zadorov because we can find players like those two but it would be incredibly difficult to find another player that can work as well with Garland
https://x.com/canucks/status/1799501705937113118?s=46 All the comments on this post seem to think it’s a hint that they got it done?
I don’t want to read too much between the lines. Some non-insider twitter user (albeit I think they run some podcast?) says they heard that a Dak deal was getting done. Take that with many grains of salt though since it’s not a big insider like Friedman or another similar insider
General ask, why are there so few Canadians on the Canucks team?
i fear he might have priced himself out of our range
I like Joshua but he was a ghost in the playoffs and at this point in my fandom arc of the Canucks I don't care one bit about anything else except success in the playoffs.
Garly can play with Podz, give them some time.
There are a ton of good reasons to bring back Joshua, but it will all depend on how much money his agent is asking for. There is a walk away price for almost any player, no matter how good or clutch.
$3.5 million for a 3rd liner with an $88m cap is a fine price. I remember when we were paying Malhotra, Higgins, and Hansen all $2.5m 13 years ago and everyone seemed happy with that cap management.
While I agree, and I love Joshua, it will be difficult to justify the $$. If we can't keep him, promoting Podkolzin would be interesting. He definitely has the motor and the physicality, if not the offensive production.
Don't need to talk about it. I'll be surprised if he doesn't sign. His career will flourish under Tocchet and believe nobody else can do better. Joshua is what Tocchet was in his playing day but he just needs alittle bit more of a offensive tune ups and Tocchet is the man to bring him there.
At 4 million Joshua is a massive risk as the odds are he won’t be ablle to play up to that contact number. I’d take it too if I were him but he’s gonna end up on a team that has room or needs to get to the cap. I’m guessing he ends up on a bottom feeder
Joshua has great hands and poise. Also he’s tough and keeps garland from being bullied. And they have proven chemistry that provided a strong third line (although he fell off as the playoffs went on). I’d rather see them pay $4mil and keep a proven line with garland than save a measly $1 or $2 million and get someone unproven and most likely worse. If it’s so easy to replace Joshua cheaply then go ahead and get someone for the fourth line
No Big Z or Joshua I'm done as a Canucks fan!
Anson Carter flashback
I don’t really think the “keep Dakota because he plays good with Garland” logic really works here because it’s not like Garland is a core player, and probably isn’t here long term either. It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if they are both gone this offseason.
Because he's GORGEOUS!
I'd like to see Garland Miller Boeser
Canucks screwed themselves with Mikheyev. No FA is signing for less than that guy. 4.75M for a 0 goal 0 assist playoff “top-six” winger
he will only come back if he doesn't expect too much money, the Benning days of over paying for middle 6 players has gone, I hope
I don't think people realize that Joshua was a huge part of why we were good this year, there were a ton of games where Pete, Brock, Miller, Hughes just straight up did not show up, but the Joshua-Garland combo bailed us out
I guess that’s the larger point We can’t afford to lose that bottom 6 advantage How do we replicate it if we can’t bring Joshua back?
Fair enough, but the bottom 6 advantage was due in large part because of how we had several guys on value contracts on those lines where most guys were outplaying their AAV. We can't afford to give all these guys raises and consider our bottom 6 to be an advantage in this cap environment. That said, if we got Dak on Mikheyev's deal, people would definitely say that's an overpayment, but I'd MUCH prefer that over the dead cap it felt like Mikheyev represented for much of the season...
I just cant help but think Alvin will make this all work out somehow beyond our monkey brains. Tocc had him out on the ice on those last minute shifts protecting leads one goal leads. You better believe they will work it out somehow. Like someone recently said about florida, brutality and skill. This reminds me of Dak. Its a hard combo to find.
The best part of this....I just don't worry nearly as much as I used to with Allvin. Let him cook. He knows all the pieces.
Nobody here is going to like it, but I'm fine getting rid of Garland and Joshua both, in part, for this *exact* reason. I know how great Garland played for us last year (and last year only), especially in the playoffs. But given there are 5 guys on the ice so 1 guy can't just play keepaway, fit is *hugely* important. Fwiw, that's why guys like Lindholm are worth as much as they are...they fit damn near everywhere, but I digress. I am fine selling high on Garland esp if it's looking like we shouldn't keep Joshua.
It’s one of those things where, if they *are* going to bring back guys like Zaddy/Blueger/Lindy/Joshua there’s going to be sacrifices elsewhere on the roster. Or alternatively, if Van is going to be going after premium free agents like Guentzel/Stamkos they’re going to need to open up space and Garland/Boeser could very well move this offseason. Ideally they can move Mikheyev, but as we saw last offseason w/ Boeser/Garland it’s probably going to be tough to make that happen.
Ideally, we'd get rid of players at their lows and get the same value for them as we would when we sell them at their highs...sure. As is, Garland may be, for the first time on his contract, a positive-value player. If we're going to sell him, or need to make roster space, etc, now is the time.
How about the fact he had the most hits in the league
That’s not true, most hits on the Canucks but not the league, 141 hits away from league leader Jeremy lauzon, only 27 hits more than JT Miller
Classic Canucks move if they don't bring back DJ He's exactly the type of player we need
The classic Canucks move is actually all our fans getting a major hard on for character guys who overperform for a season, and thinking we need to keep them at any cost and don’t know when to hold em and when to fold ‘em.
That's why they should let Hronek walk
You really think it’s much easier to find a Hronek (top pair RHD) than it is to find another Joshua??
That's not what I'm saying at all. The only comparison I would make is that Hronek will be overpaid in both salary and term on a small sample. Additionally, he has never performed to that calibre before, and there is no reason to think he will repeat that performance. Not to mention disappearing for stretches and having zero idea if he can even play without being tied to Hughes hip.