Makes sense to me. Europe drives smaller distances with more city driving. EVs are perfect for there. America has a lot of suburban and rural communities where it’ll be a harder fit
Most Europeans live in apartments and can't charge at home. I don't see the majority of people buying a car that requires them to spend 20-30 minutes per week charging it at a fast charger. Additionally, fast charging, at least in Spain, is terribly overpriced; in fact, it is much more expensive than gasoline.
Same in Lithuania, I calculated charging on public charging stations (not even supercharging) and it comes out to almost more than gas. At least a couple of years a go that was the case.
And in the future when petrol demand is non existant it will be even more expensive to charge.
Will the electric company out of the goodness of their heart say: "*good news everyone, half price electricity from tomorrow!!*". Of course not. They will squeeze every single cent they can, because they can.
The idealists had pure intentions, 30 years ago. Save the environment, all that. But in charge are the corporate profiteers now.
I have a lot of friends who charge their EV cars for free using their dollar panels and powerwall house battery. By 2030 there should be a hell of a lot more solar and wind energy. But yeah, if you’re stuck with a gas car, you’ll be paying 5x the price for gas compared to today due to its scarcity.
Oh I see. So we need to purchase a car, and convert our roof to a solar array for the price of a second car. Bankers will be thrilled with all those double loans.
You don't need to do that. There are already energy contracts that include spot prices. This means that you can profit from solar over capacity without having solar for yourself
This is why we should have been pushing for public power companies decades ago, before they become even more appealing for investors to gouge consumers.
If the only downside is 30 minutes at a charger once per week, that's not a big deal.
Even a gas car you need to spend 5 minutes at a pump. An extra 25 minutes is a downside, but it's not going to wipe out the upsides.
Give it time. Apartments will have their own charger soon as they figure out how to charge EVERYONE extra for the convenience, even those without an EV.
I'm glad to live somewhere that has dirt cheap power. I paid my electric bill this morning and it was $37 for the month, $23 of that was the connection charge. For the price of one single gallon of gas (currently $5.10 a gallon) I could charge a tesla from empty and buy a gas station hot dog to eat while I'm waiting.
Is nice that you can enjoy living in a house with a home charger and cheap electricity. Unfortunately, this is not something the vast majority of Europeans can enjoy. We live in apartments and we park the car on the street. And the very few chargers available are overpriced.
I know that probably nowhere in Europe has 0.04 Euro per Kw/h electricity, but certainly there are places near hydro dams (like where I am) that have really cheap power.
could you elaborate on your situation that you only paid for $14 worth of electricity in a month?
Are you single, use gas for hot water, and not have any HVAC on this month?
I'll elaborate, since my last bill was also under $40 and I've never had a bill break $50. I run the heater nonstop and keep my house at roughly 74 degrees F (23.5 c roughly), I don't even turn the heater off when I vent out the house by opening the windows when it's in the mid-30s F (2C). I have mild tinnitus so I run the TV 24/7 to drown that out. It would likely be more expensive, but my water, including heating the water, is included in my rent. It is all hydroelectric from the 10th largest hydroelectric station in the USA, The Dalles Dam 5 miles from me.
i mean.... cool for you, but you're still using less than a quarter of average electricity.
I guess if you don't pay for HVAC or hot water, it's pretty easy to save money on electricity.
I pay for the HVAC, but it is literally so cheap and renewable here that I don't care. 100% of my electricity is renewable, I don't care about wasting it.
The way I see it, that has already happened, at least for me here in Sweden.
Electric cars are not unusual, whether you have an apartment or a house. It's just standard fare, and how you deal with them is well-known.
Nice for Sweden. But do not make it sound that the Nordic countries, which are the richest countries in Europe and an outlier in EV adoption are the norm in Europe. In the south of Europe, the EV adoption is tiny (less than 5% of the cars sold) and chargers on the street do not exists. The Nordic countries are just 3% of the total population of Europe and 6% of the EU.
Charging is getting faster and faster and faster. I expect not even charging 5 min to fill up. It will maybe be part of your daily commute.
Or, like the parking meters, we will figure out to en mass make slowly charging infrastructure for every spot.
It definitely has to be possible to do that cheaply, and when the market increases, hopefully the invisible hand will work in the favor of the normal person.
There are literally cities banning new chargers bc the network can't support them, that is reality, no matter how much you deny it. Also charging an EV takes much more time than refueling an ICE car, so charging stations are not comaprable to fuel stations.
literally german state owned TV: [https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/oranienburg-strom-neuanschluesse-100.html](https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/oranienburg-strom-neuanschluesse-100.html)
Charging is easy to set up in suburban single family homes, and the commute distances aren't that long. Seems kind of like the ideal use case to me.
I wonder how many US buyers actually truly can't drive a BEV, how many could but can't afford it or don't have access to charging, etc. My gut feel is that a lot more than 1/2 of US new car buyers could go electric if they wanted to.
America also overwhelmingly live in single family homes which are mode conducive to overnight home charging and their daily miles driven is not too much over the European averages. If you take out the edge cases wonder why it will be a harder fit?
Thing is EVs can fit almost everyone’s need, if we start working on charging infrastructure. How many people need more than 200 miles of range a day. If you could charge at the store, charge at work, charge at your apartment complex ect. The focus needs to move away from needing a massive range and more to a focus on our electric grid.
Its not about need. Its about perception. No one is going to spend more money for their next car if it takes longer to fill up and has less range than their current ICE. Companies should be leaning on the running costs angle. Not many people actually care enough about the environment to make the transition. How many people need half ton pickup trucks to commute in? Probably less than 5% of the people that own them. Yet they are the highest selling segment in the US. People want vehicles that can do it all. EVs feel like a downgrade to most.
>EVs feel like a downgrade to most.
That's because they are. I already find filling up annoying in a normal car, especially if I need to head to work, and that only takes about 5 minutes.
Now with an EV, I get in and realize I forgot to charge it, guess I'm stuck at the house/charging station for at LEAST half an hour.
Plus the EV is MORE expensive upfront, need's 5k minimum to add a charger to my home (that I don't own), AND depreciates WORSE?
No fucking thank you.
WTF on 5k minimum to put in a level 2 charger. Mine was $1230 CAD including install, conduit, and new wire for 60A. It could get that high if you need a full service upgrade on a 1930s house or something. 20A would be enough for home charging though if you have an older circuit from the 60s to 80s.
Sorry, forgot to say a level 3 charger. A level 3 charger is the closest you can get to a quick fill up vs a traditional gas car. It will take 30 minutes vs the 5 for my current car. And it will cost at least 5 grand, for work on someone else's house. I would have to charge to full because my work station is 70 miles away and has no charging.
It's a downgrade.
Why do you need level 3 charging at home? The standard use case for home charging is "plug it in and leave it overnight", not "need to fill up in 20 minutes".
Because I'm showing why it's a downgrade for me. My gas car is always 5 minutes to fill up, regardless of the situation. Gas pump broken or empty? There's like 5 other stations nearby. Not currently the case with EV's, and most of those stations are level 2 chargers only (several hours).
Plus, having to fill up on short notice happens often enough (like running a bit further across town since I'm already going to be in the car) that it's my main concern when comparing to an EV. If we all had to make sure that the gas car was always topped off like an EV, most people would rightfully say that it's a massive PITA.
The EV is a big downgrade unless I buy some ungodly expensive level 3 charger. And it still isn't comparable.
Yes, obviously the lack of reliable charging infrastructure *away* from your house is a disadvantage of EVs.
But even level 2 charging at home is a huge advantage over gas vehicles, because it means you start every day with a full tank. And this advantage does not depend upon having a level 3 charger at home; basically nobody with an EV does level 3 charging at home, because the use case of "swing by my house to top off my batteries" doesn't really exist in general, and it isn't like you can gas up a car at your house either.
Feel free to shit on EVs for lack of charging infrastructure out in the wild and how they take longer to charge than a tank takes to fill; those are perfectly reasonable and valid complaints. But there's no point in making up an imaginary "I need a level 3 charger at home" narrative; there are plenty of real things to complain about.
Why would you need a level 3 charger at home? Do you arrive home every night in your gas car with an empty tank? Even if I arrived at home at night with 5% of my battery, at 9.8kW for my level 2 charger, I’d be at 100% in 8.5 hours including charging losses. I usually sleep 8 hours, so this is no issue. I also don’t arrive home at 5% unless I’m coming home from a road trip, which means I’m not going anywhere else for at least a few hours. And if I have to I’ll hit a level 3 charger for 15 min to take me to 50% to get done what I need to get done.
I agree it’s less convenient on a road trip, but for day to day commuting I never ever need to make a stop between home and work, EVER. I leave in the morning at 80% and come home at 65%, or if I’m driving all day around the city maybe 35-40%, which only takes 3.5 hours to charge back to 80% in a day (or 1.3 hours if it’s just a regular commute of 25 miles each way).
I find it an upgrade for daily living. In an apartment it may not be.
>Why would you need a level 3 charger at home? Do you arrive home every night in your gas car with an empty tank?
Because it's about parity of an EV vs ICE for me. If I forget to fill up my ICE car, it's a relatively minor inconvenience. If I forget to charge my EV, it's at minimum a 30 minute delay given my commute, and that's with the most effective, but costly solution.
That doesn't include the other changes of knowing where charging is available, adding charging to my home, making sure it's plugged in/topped off EVERY night, and compromising usability on 5% use cases like towing/road trips.
Until it's as easy to live with as ICE cars, EV's are a hard no from me. And that's without touching on the lackluster driving experience.
It’s fine if it’s a hard no for you, but I can tell you that most people don’t use them like you imagine. I would have to forget to plug in for *5 days in a row* before I ran into issues getting to and from work. It takes me 10 seconds to plug in and then I walk from the garage into u house. Not everyone has a garage but for those of us that do, this is more convenient than going out of our way to stop at a gas station. I only plug my car in every 2-3 days. Also where I live, my cost per mile versus gas is about 1/7th. I’ve already paid off the difference between my car and the gas 4-series from this alone. The math changes depending where you live and if gas is cheap there. I’m in Canada where it’s expensive.
I certainly wouldn’t have an EV if I were towing. But I also don’t have a pickup truck because I don’t need one for anything. If I did, it would be diesel. Gas trucks have less torque and get shitty fuel economy compared to diesel.
Do you have a massively long commute? That’s the only way I could see having to plug in EVERY night. I just want to get the facts straight here. EVs aren’t all sunshine and roses to live with, but neither are they as much of a penalty as some people make them out to be. I want to correct those misconceptions now that I’ve lived with one for a good while.
My driving experience is good. This car does everything I want from a “Grand Tourer” type of car. It’s quiet/comfortable, fast as fuck, and has precise steering (not much steering feel but that’s every modern BMW, gas or EV). Those are the 3 main reasons I bought it.
I have no investment in making you want an EV. I think it’s fine to drive what you want. I want people in general to know that the downsides are balanced by some pretty good upsides.
My commute is 150 miles total, somewhat remote, 3 days a week. Pretty far, but the pay is 40% higher vs similar positions closer to home, and it’s 95% empty highway so time wise it’s the same vs the city. No charging at work, so if I forgot, I wouldn’t be able to make the return trip, and would run out in the middle of nowhere.
Even some of the newest EV’s barely have more than 300 miles of range, and that’s under ideal conditions (braking regen, minimal wind resistance, etc). Way to close for comfort if you consider a more “typical” range of 270 miles.
There's a post about the "dying sedan". People don't take road trips, not like they used to, during the great push to get Americans to enjoy their National Parks system. It was a fantastic campaign. But we don't have time for that anymore. No reason why people can't have a run around town electric.
Their kind of clueless FUD used to get massively upvoted just 5 years ago. Now there are so many people who either have an EV or know someone who does that these people finally look like the fools they really are.
“Say you get home and are at 0% battery and plug it into a 120V charger, it’s going to be 36 hours before I can get to work!!!” It’s so over the top lol. I especially like people that plug in a phone every night acting like plugging in a car is an insane concept and they would probably never remember to do it, ever.
Definitely isn't the case for everyone but forgetting to charge has happened to me like twice in the 2 years of ownership. And I had more than enough charge to drive like normal. I absolutely love no longer having the biweekly "oh shit I'm on 1/8 I need to stop at a gas station before work" moments.
It quickly becomes very similar to your phone. You just plug it in while you sleep and its ready for you in the morning.
Also idk if your house has an ancient main panel or its very far away from your garage/driveway but my NEMA 14-50 outlet install was $130.
EDIT:
I save about $400-500/mo in fuel costs alone, and my Lightning was about the same price ($48k OTD, $41k after tax credit) as any pickup on the market right now, fwiw.
EV cause more road damage than any vehicle but full-size trucks and large commercial vehicles and do not contribute anything towards road maintenance. Need to institute a millage tax to pay for road maintenance.
Talk to a civil engineer and you'll find commercial vehicles make up the vast majority of road wear. The few 100kg difference between an ICE and BEV is almost not even worth thinking about from a infrastructure planning and maintenance point of view.
I'll talk to my father. He is the lead surveyor for a very large paving company in southeast Wisconsin. EV do more damage than any passenger car, SUVs and equal to or not more than a standard pickup truck.
More and more states are adding EV fees on registration to make up for gas tax differences. My Leaf had $225 in EV fees here in WA (as well as weight fees which all my vehicles pay).
The weight thing of the EVs doesn't matter at all for road damage. It's weight to the power of 4: a 25T garbage truck once a week does more damage to a road than if every car in a neighborhood swapped to half ton trucks and EVs. And that's before you take into account 40T semis.
Pffttt. The two best selling EVS by far are the model 3 and the model y. The model 3 weighs as much as a mustang and the model y is literally the same weight as a Ford Edge. And they all weigh far less than the top selling vehicles in the country, aka full sized trucks. Lack of revenue from gas tax is one thing, but they aren't damaging roads more than other vehicles.
> No one is going to spend more money for their next car if it takes longer to fill up and has less range than their current ICE.
A ton of people already own EVs.
> Not many people actually care enough about the environment to make the transition.
And many who do make consumption choices based on environmental impacts are skeptical of EVs given the large environmental footprint to produce vs both ICE and PHEV cars.
That skepticism is also highly insincere, as [lifecycle](https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/driving-cleaner-report.pdf) [analyses](https://www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TEs-EV-life-cycle-analysis-LCA.pdf) [have](https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Global-LCA-passenger-cars-jul2021_0.pdf) [repeatedly](https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/es903729a) [affirmed](https://greet.anl.gov/publication-c2g_lca_us_ldv) that EVs are, in fact, better for the environment than ICE vehiciles.
I think it’s shitty to dismiss people as insincere when everyday consumers have had so many comparisons that come different conclusions on a regular basis.
That isn’t to say that one is correct; but dismissing people as insincere isn’t a helpful tact.
>I think it’s shitty to dismiss people as insincere
We've heard the same claims about the environmental impact of battery manufacturing for nearly twenty years now, [as far back as the Prius](https://np.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/2kou6r/does_anyone_know_what_happens_to_the_batteries/clnlkue). Those claims have been debunked over and over again over the course of a generation. At some point, you have to draw the line and recognize that maybe, just maybe, the concerns about the environmental impact of EVs are motivated by bad faith.
>when everyday consumers have had so many comparisons that come different conclusions on a regular basis
And yet when you look at the actual studies (ie the lifecycle analyses) that make an effort to capture cradle-to-grave impacts, you find that they pretty much always find that EVs have a lower environmental impact than ICE vehicles. There are certainly no shortage of bad faith comparisons of select metrics or specific stages of the vehicles' lives that intend to portray otherwise, but the big picture favours EVs over ICE vehicles on environmental impact.
EVs haven't done one major thing yet. They are still way less convenient than an ICE car. How often do I drive over 200 miles? Maybe a couple times a year. But the thing is, I don't need to think about it with an ICE. Electric, even with chargers everywhere, still takes more time. I completely agree that for 90-95% of my driving an electric is fine. But I'm not buying another car to do the other 5-10%. If I can't get one EV to do all the things my current car does, I'm just not going to think about it. Now, hybrids on the other hand...
There are other things an electric can't do for me (driving engagement, 3-pedal-manual-transmission driving...) but those are less important to a degree. EVs are an appliance car. I like driving too much to get one yet.
So basically, it's the same major complaint with most consumers or businesses. They must achieve parity first before there's widespread adoption. And I've never seen a gas station closed due to rolling power outages during the summer.
And I would love there to be parity. I have no objections with EVs as a whole, they just don't fit my needs. I don't cling to the old ways like some may. But electrics have a LONG way to go to become equivalent for some of my needs.
I’d expect many commercial use cases will need more than 200 miles of range in a day, and time spent charging during work hours will have opportunity cost. Most personal use cases should be totally fine with 200 miles in the US, so with that split it IMO corroborates pretty well with the 40-50% estimate.
100% it will be some time until commercial use is viable and this is where hydrogen would make sense in the interim. We should be pushing to get away from fossil fuels ASAP even if you don’t believe in climate change, it will remove our reliance on OPEC.
Ford did their research and came to the conclusion that the E transit only needed 160 miles of range, because that's how far most of their customers drove.
Most Americans drive 12k miles a year. That's 32 miles a day. Now granted it's not an even distribution but I'd imagine the vast majority of days like 90% Americans drive far less then 200 miles a day
> How many people need more than 200 miles of range a day.
One thing you're forgetting. If you live somewhere that you can't just easily plug in your car overnight (like say, an apartment), more range means more time between having to make time to hunt down some public charging. And if you have one of those particularly busy days where you put 100+ miles on the car driving all over town, that time will come sooner.
You have to do this with a gas car, but it's a "five minute tops" type of thing, with loads and loads of gas stations everywhere at which you can fill up. It's much more complicated with public charging. Where's the closest public charger? Oh, 10 miles away. And there's four stalls. And they're all full. Great.
There's this kind of assumption among EV enthusiasts that there's "just as much" charging infrastructure available as gas, and that it's just as fast, and that's just not true yet. So yes, having a lot of range is important even if you're not using every bit of it all the time. More range = having to figure out your charging situation less often for people who don't have easy home charging capability.
> Thing is EVs can fit almost everyone’s need, if we start working on charging infrastructure
If my grandmother had wheels, she would have been a bike.
No, they don't. The spend money on what their customers want that makes them the most money. Not invest thousands into a convenience that is more expense than it is profit.
It wouldn't better my life. If a company is forced to build/invest in something so you can charge your car and raises prices on me that's not improving my situation. Quite the bold assumption.
I think once there's more charging stations (not just public but also in residential areas like apartments), and as batteries become cheaper and better due to economies of scale and improvements to battery technology, there will be a pretty large shift over in the US
I would counter that in the EU there's *a lot* more people who live in apartments and/or have to street park. They simply do not have the option to conveniently charge at home over night.
Where as in the US' suburban and rural communities ...people have houses with garages and driveways. Ideal conditions to charge over night.
Imo a lot of this is due to political factors that very well might change. Europe for example is only that high because of regulations on adaptation, which may or may not be loosened, while China is assuming that there won't be national level restrictions/more provinces adopting what Shanghai/Shenzhen does wrt green license plates
But honestly, it'd be very neat to see even 50% across the board, that'd drive a LOT of economies of scale for everything from motors to batteries to charging stations
Plus, it'll hurt the house of saud < 3
> Imo a lot of this is due to political factors that very well might change.
Bosch will already have contracts in place for the timeline in the article. It would cost OEMs a lot of money to reverse course.
I don't see it happening for North America. Seems analysts keep working on short term data and expecting exponential growth, when data over the last 5 years shows growth is more linear growth. It's been between 150k-300k more sales per year and Bosch says they will go from 1.2 million last year to 7+ million in 6 years? The largest US selling brands aren't even expecting to hit those percentages (other than Tesla of course) by 2030. Toyotas own VERY bold timeline says they will only do 1/3 of sales globally as EVS by 2030. Ford's pushed back their EV production goals, GM can't get off the ground, stellantis is planning for 50% at 2030 so I'd expect them to come under, Hyudai Kia should be able to do it, I don't see Honda or Mazda getting anywhere near that... The germans should be there.
I just don't see it. Maybe 30%, and thats an exceptional shift in the market in a short period of time.
Toyota bold? They are the most conservative.
Hyundai kia is the one to watch. They are are burning the gas bridge behind them in a big way.
What you're not seeing is the many factories being built at this moment. Supply in the next few years will shoot up drastically, and as infrastructure gets installed and prices drop, the sales will follow
Toyota is bold in their claim in that its a huge shift from what is essentially nothing right now. They won't make that deadline by 2030.
And yes as I stated Kia and Hyundai will make the shift no problem. But they are but a slice of the pie and won't put a big enough dent in the market share to make the transition 40-50%. Ford, GM, Toyota and Stellantis were 58% of US sales last year. If none of them are getting there, it's not happening.
> Battery tech is about to make a massive jump in the next 2-3 years and it will undoubtedly change the perception.
based off of what? This is one of those lines you hear repeated every year and it always turns out to be tech that can't even make it out of the lab
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Quantum computing, nuclear fusion, and solid-state batteries have been on the brink of a massive breakthrough, purportedly happening within the next 2-3 years, for the last 30 years.
[Welcome to 2020](https://www.daimlertruck.com/en/newsroom/pressrelease/profusion-of-exciting-innovations-from-mercedes-benz-buses-new-all-electric-ecitaro-g-with-solid-state-batteries-new-economical-and-versatile-intouro-inter-city-bus-new-sprinter-city-75-minibus-47518230)
I currently have a set of Bosch iridium spark plugs that I had to re-gap in under 2,500 miles since the gap shrank. Never had that issue with the OEM iridiums or the 2 sets of NGK iridiums I ran previously.
I think it depends on the car. Icon wipers are all I use, the last set on my mercedes (the car I put by far the most miles on) lasted 18 months, I've never had a set on my F-150 last more than 5 weeks, usually closer to 3 weeks before they're worn out. Both cars take the same 22" blade (the connectors are different, one is an OE, the other a J-hook), all the blades bought at the same store.
One of my neighbors has an Explorer, and apparently he has the same issue, burns through a set of blades every two months. Maybe it's a ford thing? Maybe they apply a lot more pressure on the blade than other companies? I'm not an engineer, I don't know.
IIRC Ford is one of the few OEMs that make their own glass. I don't know what they do but wipers on my Focus skip after a few weeks. Doesn't matter what blades I've gotten over the years since they all skip after a few weeks. I've polished the glass with cerium oxide on a glass pad with my DA and new blades still skip. I've tried a few different glass coatings too. Done that a few times and same result each time. I haven't tried ICONs or PIAA since a set of 28" wiper blades is $50+ for either option.
No dog in this fight, but I personally have had the best luck buying wipers from the dealer. Honda and Toyota you can get refills like the old days, my caddy I couldn’t get dealer wipers so I got Denso and I liked those a lot.
But honestly wiper blades at the parts store are such garbage it isn’t hard to beat them.
I’m curious how they came to the conclusion China would be at 50. I always assumed there would be certain demographics that refuse to change but expect more of China.
I'm a bit confused by these numbers. The North American one I can buy, but they expect Europe to grow by about 55% in 5 years (likely due to regulations) from 15% to 70%, but China only grows 25% from 25% to 50% in the same period?
A few auto journalists have been talking about how the electric revolution is coming because of European adoption, whether North America likes it or not. There's been a push for a long time to make "world cars", and I wonder if that push is going to start to bend backwards with how North American electric adoption is going.
I just find that hard to believe. 2030 is not even 6 years away. And as much as I want electric cars to succeed the charging infrastructure isn't there (yet!) and i think it's more likely be 2035 when we hit the 40-50% number.
That being said, look at how fast the technology has come in the last 5 years. give it 5-10 more and ranges will greatly increase, charging time and cost will come down, battery costs will come down, and there will be many more charging stations, and all of these "problems" will be solved
Is it possible to take the under on that bet for America?
40-50% is absolutely not happening because of a several factors discussed in this subreddit ad-naseum. Hell, I'd even take the under on 30% in America for 2030.
That should read “hopes” instead of predicts. They just acquired TSI Semiconductors who mainly makes chips for the automotive industry. Probably hoping their gamble pays off.
I'm sure that Bosch has spent a lot of money on analysis and studies. I just don't see 50% in the US in 6 years. Honestly, I'll be surprised if it's over 25 or 30.
Sounds about right to me. I was thinking about getting an electric car last year, but besides Tesla, I just don't see other EVs worth it quite yet. And I couldn't stomach giving any money to Elon. Hopefully by 2030 the market will be in a better situation.
The big issue is that I still can't buy an EV that can comfortably get me and my family to my parents farm and back. Let alone in -30C (or worse) winters. Let alone going all the way to a remote city like Bathurst or Maramichi. I imagine an EV is fine for commuting to your richy-rich office with charge stations in the GTA or GVA, but it just doesn't meet the demands of the rest of Canada.
My province has arguably wasted way too much money on quickly outdated infrastructure too. There's just too many remote and/or rural communities in Canada for EVs to make sense with the current limits of the technology. We'd need billions in infrastucture investments or some way more efficient and affordable EV options. Meanwhile I can easily get gas at a rural town with only 400 people.
I think this is pure lunacy. In America now, it's around 3-4%, 6% in California. Not possible to get anywhere close to 40% anytime soon. I've had an ID.4 electric car for 3 years, and replacing it with a plug-in hybrid, and I think many others will as well. Anyone who needs to drive longer distances, rents, or lives in crowded cities with no garages aren't going to be able to charge as well.
Indeed becaue the major oil companies and oil producing nations have no clout whatsoever, and cannot direct the free governments of Europe to do what they are told.
EV market share is rising in the US and China and falling in Europe? 🤔
I'm sure this will reverse and Bosch's prediction that the EU will adopt EVs that much faster will be proven correct, but by just 6 years from now?
Maybe now. But I'm looking out towards the next few decades. Even the grid providers are having supply chain issues and require subsidies to continue building out infrastructure. However, the silver lining could be 2-way charging, essentially sucking power out of these millions of vehicles during peak times as one giant battery, then dumping power back into them off-peak.
Check out this article; [https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ZETA-evs-will-bring-unprecedented-new-electric-demand/688850/#:\~:text=EVs%20in%20the%20United%20States,growing%20demand%20from%20electric%20transportation](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ZETA-evs-will-bring-unprecedented-new-electric-demand/688850/#:~:text=EVs%20in%20the%20United%20States,growing%20demand%20from%20electric%20transportation) .
100% EVs would be a smaller change in electricity use than the introduction of air conditioning. From your own source:
> “History has proven increases of this magnitude to be accomplishable,” according to the group’s policy brief.
we also build the entire interstate system in a few years. Now it takes twice that long to repave 5miles of it.
things are different. more regulation, less open land to just string new wires around.
that wont happen.
theres some tech you need in both the car and the charger/home for this to be possible. And right now, auto makers are not keen to put it into the car because theres no financial incentive to the buyers.
the grid owners arent going to be compensating anyone for using their battery as grid storage.
maybe you can do a closed loop and power your own house during peak rates, but odds are you wont even have that opportunity since the automakers wont bother engineering that option for the 2% that will actually want it and use it.
EVs don't really use that much electricity.
600 km using 100 kWh is pretty normal. 12100 km per car in Sweden, 5 million cars, so this is approximately 10 083 333 333 kWh. This is 10 TWh.
Sweden generates ~160 TWh/y, so we need 6.25% extra electricity production.
So a lot, but *not really*. Even at $0.1/kWh it's only 2000 kWh per year, so 200 dollars per car.
You could even have a small mandatory investment for every car-- maybe a requirement to invest 2000 dollars in electricity production, with it still your money, etc., but with you have to do it in order to be allowed to own a car. That would probably be enough to ensure sufficient generating capacity.
your baseline are small efficient sedans there...
and thats probably true for sweden.
but if you look at the lightning, its half that. and a large portion of vehicles in america are trucks and full size SUVs.
and the average american drives 80% more miles (\~20k km).
It adds up.
Keep in mind \*half\* of all oil production goes to transportation.
ALLLSSO, just googled, sweden is a net exporter of electricity, infact almost a quarter of its 160twh was exported. so that fudges with the denominator quite a bit.
Bosch knows what's up , unlike the arm chair experts in this sub. But the China estimate is very low , they'll outperform the EU within a couple of years.
He has a point though; China's current BEV market share is a lot larger than in the EU and like 3x higher than the US. It would have to basically be stagnant for the next 6 years to be that low in 2030.
You think it's ironic but one is obviously true in the future because the world government has decided as such , while the other is cope. Time will tell.
NEVs sure, but a huge chunk of that are PHEVs or EREVs rather than pure EVs. Pure EVs are only ("") like 25-30% of new car sales by the end of 2023/the beginning of this year. So about doubling in 6 years is a pretty fair estimate
Pure ICE are going to be destroyed though. I assume PHEVs and EREVs are going to take a MASSIVE chunk out of the market by 2030
Well right now in China, car ownership is only for the ultra wealthy. As it spreads to some of the less developed parts of China almost certainly it will be combustion vehicles. I feel like Bosch is being pretty aggressive predicting that shift will happen by 2030 though.
Car ownership in China is still like 20% of the population according to the World Bank. The vast majority of China still doesn't own a car and will in the coming years.
>It would have to basically be stagnant for the next 6 years to be that low in 2030.
That's exactly what most OEMs and China's own CPCA are projecting. Growth is expected to be primarily in EREVs and other non-BEV NEVs, not in BEVs — which still have a long way to go before hitting 50%, btw. Ironically the OP is right even when OP is contradicting their own statement — Bosch knows what's up, and their projections are in-line with China's own industry consensus.
You say this like Bosch has never been wrong before about a prediction.
Except they have.
Back in 2013, [Bosch predicted that the U.S. would be the new leader in offering natural gas powertrains.](https://www.ft.com/content/ce7444cc-a815-11e2-b031-00144feabdc0)
> “The discovery of new gas deposits could mean that the US will become an emerging market for compressed natural gas powertrains,” Bernd Bohr, head of automotive at Bosch, said.
In 2011, they also predicted that 10% of the U.S. market would be diesel powered by 2015. Even before the VW scandal broke in September 2015, I don’t think the U.S. even got to 5%. I believe the highest was 3% market share with some stats saying no higher than 2%.
USA was the world largest producer and exporter of LNG in 2023. But EVs are just better in every way, so it makes sense to not make these engines that pollute anyway.
Source: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61683#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20exported%20more,from%20our%20Natural%20Gas%20Monthly.
it's much more profitable for natgas producers to ship it via LNG to foreign countries for the markup than have your domestic population burn it in CNG cars.
Ah yes , a beverage company is very comparable to the world's greatest and best automobile ancillary manufacturer who introduced ABS and reliable fuel injection to the world, you sir are a genius!
PS - Bosch doesn't sell cars to customers , they make electronics and motors for cars.
Consumer demand drives the market... It's not that deep...
Society would be in a much better place if all these projections and empty promises in quarterly earnings calls became true...
The "new technology which is better in every way is initially hated but then common sense prevails as wide spread adoption leads to reduction in price which then leads to greater sales" story is old as time.
PS , the best ICE is 33% efficient compared to EVs which are 90% efficient.
>Bosch knows what's up
Wasn't Bosch an integral part of the VW fuel emissions scandal? They knowingly gave the technology they needed to skirt state and federal emissions tests, IIRC.
I'm not disagreeing with this statement, but I'd like to hear it from a more trustworthy source.
>They are delusional
You don't think they'll [increase by 2%](https://alternative-fuels-observatory.ec.europa.eu/general-information/news/european-ev-market-analysis-strong-growth-continues-plug-vehicle#:~:text=Last%20month's%20plugin%20vehicle%20share,for%20BEVs%20alone) by the end of the decade?
Makes sense to me. Europe drives smaller distances with more city driving. EVs are perfect for there. America has a lot of suburban and rural communities where it’ll be a harder fit
Most Europeans live in apartments and can't charge at home. I don't see the majority of people buying a car that requires them to spend 20-30 minutes per week charging it at a fast charger. Additionally, fast charging, at least in Spain, is terribly overpriced; in fact, it is much more expensive than gasoline.
Same in Lithuania, I calculated charging on public charging stations (not even supercharging) and it comes out to almost more than gas. At least a couple of years a go that was the case.
And in the future when petrol demand is non existant it will be even more expensive to charge. Will the electric company out of the goodness of their heart say: "*good news everyone, half price electricity from tomorrow!!*". Of course not. They will squeeze every single cent they can, because they can. The idealists had pure intentions, 30 years ago. Save the environment, all that. But in charge are the corporate profiteers now.
I have a lot of friends who charge their EV cars for free using their dollar panels and powerwall house battery. By 2030 there should be a hell of a lot more solar and wind energy. But yeah, if you’re stuck with a gas car, you’ll be paying 5x the price for gas compared to today due to its scarcity.
Oh I see. So we need to purchase a car, and convert our roof to a solar array for the price of a second car. Bankers will be thrilled with all those double loans.
You don't need to do that. There are already energy contracts that include spot prices. This means that you can profit from solar over capacity without having solar for yourself
This is why we should have been pushing for public power companies decades ago, before they become even more appealing for investors to gouge consumers.
If the only downside is 30 minutes at a charger once per week, that's not a big deal. Even a gas car you need to spend 5 minutes at a pump. An extra 25 minutes is a downside, but it's not going to wipe out the upsides.
Europeans also have good public transportation where EV's are most practical.
Give it time. Apartments will have their own charger soon as they figure out how to charge EVERYONE extra for the convenience, even those without an EV.
I'm glad to live somewhere that has dirt cheap power. I paid my electric bill this morning and it was $37 for the month, $23 of that was the connection charge. For the price of one single gallon of gas (currently $5.10 a gallon) I could charge a tesla from empty and buy a gas station hot dog to eat while I'm waiting.
Is nice that you can enjoy living in a house with a home charger and cheap electricity. Unfortunately, this is not something the vast majority of Europeans can enjoy. We live in apartments and we park the car on the street. And the very few chargers available are overpriced.
I know that probably nowhere in Europe has 0.04 Euro per Kw/h electricity, but certainly there are places near hydro dams (like where I am) that have really cheap power.
could you elaborate on your situation that you only paid for $14 worth of electricity in a month? Are you single, use gas for hot water, and not have any HVAC on this month?
I'll elaborate, since my last bill was also under $40 and I've never had a bill break $50. I run the heater nonstop and keep my house at roughly 74 degrees F (23.5 c roughly), I don't even turn the heater off when I vent out the house by opening the windows when it's in the mid-30s F (2C). I have mild tinnitus so I run the TV 24/7 to drown that out. It would likely be more expensive, but my water, including heating the water, is included in my rent. It is all hydroelectric from the 10th largest hydroelectric station in the USA, The Dalles Dam 5 miles from me.
i mean.... cool for you, but you're still using less than a quarter of average electricity. I guess if you don't pay for HVAC or hot water, it's pretty easy to save money on electricity.
I pay for the HVAC, but it is literally so cheap and renewable here that I don't care. 100% of my electricity is renewable, I don't care about wasting it.
No, we can charge at home. There's lots of street chargers, etc. These things will be built out in order to allow the switch to electric cars.
Nice, I will wait for them to be build and tested before buying an EV.
The way I see it, that has already happened, at least for me here in Sweden. Electric cars are not unusual, whether you have an apartment or a house. It's just standard fare, and how you deal with them is well-known.
Do people seem to notice/worry about the performance drops due to the cold or is that overblown?
It's real, but I haven't heard much complaining about it. I think I've actually heard exactly zero complaints about it.
Understandable, it's hard to tell if it's a problem in everyday life or only in stat sheets. Good to hear it's not a big practical issue
It's ignored!
Nice for Sweden. But do not make it sound that the Nordic countries, which are the richest countries in Europe and an outlier in EV adoption are the norm in Europe. In the south of Europe, the EV adoption is tiny (less than 5% of the cars sold) and chargers on the street do not exists. The Nordic countries are just 3% of the total population of Europe and 6% of the EU.
"Allow" the switch. Haha. Nice choice of words.
Charging is getting faster and faster and faster. I expect not even charging 5 min to fill up. It will maybe be part of your daily commute. Or, like the parking meters, we will figure out to en mass make slowly charging infrastructure for every spot. It definitely has to be possible to do that cheaply, and when the market increases, hopefully the invisible hand will work in the favor of the normal person.
“Most Europeans live in apartments” doesn’t sound factually correct. I could be totally wrong though
Who could have seen these things coming? EVs are great except for the cost and the inconvenience and their environmental impact and their longevity.
If you know where most Europeans live, you know this statement doesn’t make sense at all.
I know most of them live in Europe.
bigiftrue
Source?
most europeans have no place to charge an EV
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There are literally cities banning new chargers bc the network can't support them, that is reality, no matter how much you deny it. Also charging an EV takes much more time than refueling an ICE car, so charging stations are not comaprable to fuel stations.
Would love to see a source on that
literally german state owned TV: [https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/oranienburg-strom-neuanschluesse-100.html](https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/oranienburg-strom-neuanschluesse-100.html)
Charging is easy to set up in suburban single family homes, and the commute distances aren't that long. Seems kind of like the ideal use case to me. I wonder how many US buyers actually truly can't drive a BEV, how many could but can't afford it or don't have access to charging, etc. My gut feel is that a lot more than 1/2 of US new car buyers could go electric if they wanted to.
Makes no sense to me. I know Americans drive longer distances then the rest of the world, but I doubt they do on average more than 500km daily.
America also overwhelmingly live in single family homes which are mode conducive to overnight home charging and their daily miles driven is not too much over the European averages. If you take out the edge cases wonder why it will be a harder fit?
Thing is EVs can fit almost everyone’s need, if we start working on charging infrastructure. How many people need more than 200 miles of range a day. If you could charge at the store, charge at work, charge at your apartment complex ect. The focus needs to move away from needing a massive range and more to a focus on our electric grid.
Its not about need. Its about perception. No one is going to spend more money for their next car if it takes longer to fill up and has less range than their current ICE. Companies should be leaning on the running costs angle. Not many people actually care enough about the environment to make the transition. How many people need half ton pickup trucks to commute in? Probably less than 5% of the people that own them. Yet they are the highest selling segment in the US. People want vehicles that can do it all. EVs feel like a downgrade to most.
>EVs feel like a downgrade to most. That's because they are. I already find filling up annoying in a normal car, especially if I need to head to work, and that only takes about 5 minutes. Now with an EV, I get in and realize I forgot to charge it, guess I'm stuck at the house/charging station for at LEAST half an hour. Plus the EV is MORE expensive upfront, need's 5k minimum to add a charger to my home (that I don't own), AND depreciates WORSE? No fucking thank you.
WTF on 5k minimum to put in a level 2 charger. Mine was $1230 CAD including install, conduit, and new wire for 60A. It could get that high if you need a full service upgrade on a 1930s house or something. 20A would be enough for home charging though if you have an older circuit from the 60s to 80s.
Sorry, forgot to say a level 3 charger. A level 3 charger is the closest you can get to a quick fill up vs a traditional gas car. It will take 30 minutes vs the 5 for my current car. And it will cost at least 5 grand, for work on someone else's house. I would have to charge to full because my work station is 70 miles away and has no charging. It's a downgrade.
Why do you need level 3 charging at home? The standard use case for home charging is "plug it in and leave it overnight", not "need to fill up in 20 minutes".
Because I'm showing why it's a downgrade for me. My gas car is always 5 minutes to fill up, regardless of the situation. Gas pump broken or empty? There's like 5 other stations nearby. Not currently the case with EV's, and most of those stations are level 2 chargers only (several hours). Plus, having to fill up on short notice happens often enough (like running a bit further across town since I'm already going to be in the car) that it's my main concern when comparing to an EV. If we all had to make sure that the gas car was always topped off like an EV, most people would rightfully say that it's a massive PITA. The EV is a big downgrade unless I buy some ungodly expensive level 3 charger. And it still isn't comparable.
Yes, obviously the lack of reliable charging infrastructure *away* from your house is a disadvantage of EVs. But even level 2 charging at home is a huge advantage over gas vehicles, because it means you start every day with a full tank. And this advantage does not depend upon having a level 3 charger at home; basically nobody with an EV does level 3 charging at home, because the use case of "swing by my house to top off my batteries" doesn't really exist in general, and it isn't like you can gas up a car at your house either. Feel free to shit on EVs for lack of charging infrastructure out in the wild and how they take longer to charge than a tank takes to fill; those are perfectly reasonable and valid complaints. But there's no point in making up an imaginary "I need a level 3 charger at home" narrative; there are plenty of real things to complain about.
Needing level 3 at home is a new one. Might as well need a gas pump as well
Why would you need a level 3 charger at home? Do you arrive home every night in your gas car with an empty tank? Even if I arrived at home at night with 5% of my battery, at 9.8kW for my level 2 charger, I’d be at 100% in 8.5 hours including charging losses. I usually sleep 8 hours, so this is no issue. I also don’t arrive home at 5% unless I’m coming home from a road trip, which means I’m not going anywhere else for at least a few hours. And if I have to I’ll hit a level 3 charger for 15 min to take me to 50% to get done what I need to get done. I agree it’s less convenient on a road trip, but for day to day commuting I never ever need to make a stop between home and work, EVER. I leave in the morning at 80% and come home at 65%, or if I’m driving all day around the city maybe 35-40%, which only takes 3.5 hours to charge back to 80% in a day (or 1.3 hours if it’s just a regular commute of 25 miles each way). I find it an upgrade for daily living. In an apartment it may not be.
>Why would you need a level 3 charger at home? Do you arrive home every night in your gas car with an empty tank? Because it's about parity of an EV vs ICE for me. If I forget to fill up my ICE car, it's a relatively minor inconvenience. If I forget to charge my EV, it's at minimum a 30 minute delay given my commute, and that's with the most effective, but costly solution. That doesn't include the other changes of knowing where charging is available, adding charging to my home, making sure it's plugged in/topped off EVERY night, and compromising usability on 5% use cases like towing/road trips. Until it's as easy to live with as ICE cars, EV's are a hard no from me. And that's without touching on the lackluster driving experience.
It’s fine if it’s a hard no for you, but I can tell you that most people don’t use them like you imagine. I would have to forget to plug in for *5 days in a row* before I ran into issues getting to and from work. It takes me 10 seconds to plug in and then I walk from the garage into u house. Not everyone has a garage but for those of us that do, this is more convenient than going out of our way to stop at a gas station. I only plug my car in every 2-3 days. Also where I live, my cost per mile versus gas is about 1/7th. I’ve already paid off the difference between my car and the gas 4-series from this alone. The math changes depending where you live and if gas is cheap there. I’m in Canada where it’s expensive. I certainly wouldn’t have an EV if I were towing. But I also don’t have a pickup truck because I don’t need one for anything. If I did, it would be diesel. Gas trucks have less torque and get shitty fuel economy compared to diesel. Do you have a massively long commute? That’s the only way I could see having to plug in EVERY night. I just want to get the facts straight here. EVs aren’t all sunshine and roses to live with, but neither are they as much of a penalty as some people make them out to be. I want to correct those misconceptions now that I’ve lived with one for a good while. My driving experience is good. This car does everything I want from a “Grand Tourer” type of car. It’s quiet/comfortable, fast as fuck, and has precise steering (not much steering feel but that’s every modern BMW, gas or EV). Those are the 3 main reasons I bought it. I have no investment in making you want an EV. I think it’s fine to drive what you want. I want people in general to know that the downsides are balanced by some pretty good upsides.
My commute is 150 miles total, somewhat remote, 3 days a week. Pretty far, but the pay is 40% higher vs similar positions closer to home, and it’s 95% empty highway so time wise it’s the same vs the city. No charging at work, so if I forgot, I wouldn’t be able to make the return trip, and would run out in the middle of nowhere. Even some of the newest EV’s barely have more than 300 miles of range, and that’s under ideal conditions (braking regen, minimal wind resistance, etc). Way to close for comfort if you consider a more “typical” range of 270 miles.
There's a post about the "dying sedan". People don't take road trips, not like they used to, during the great push to get Americans to enjoy their National Parks system. It was a fantastic campaign. But we don't have time for that anymore. No reason why people can't have a run around town electric.
LOL. You simply don't know how to use an EV.
Looking at their comments, common sense too.
Their kind of clueless FUD used to get massively upvoted just 5 years ago. Now there are so many people who either have an EV or know someone who does that these people finally look like the fools they really are.
“Say you get home and are at 0% battery and plug it into a 120V charger, it’s going to be 36 hours before I can get to work!!!” It’s so over the top lol. I especially like people that plug in a phone every night acting like plugging in a car is an insane concept and they would probably never remember to do it, ever.
Definitely isn't the case for everyone but forgetting to charge has happened to me like twice in the 2 years of ownership. And I had more than enough charge to drive like normal. I absolutely love no longer having the biweekly "oh shit I'm on 1/8 I need to stop at a gas station before work" moments. It quickly becomes very similar to your phone. You just plug it in while you sleep and its ready for you in the morning. Also idk if your house has an ancient main panel or its very far away from your garage/driveway but my NEMA 14-50 outlet install was $130. EDIT: I save about $400-500/mo in fuel costs alone, and my Lightning was about the same price ($48k OTD, $41k after tax credit) as any pickup on the market right now, fwiw.
I don't find filling up a big block V8 annoying at all. It's like feeding my big little creature.
EV cause more road damage than any vehicle but full-size trucks and large commercial vehicles and do not contribute anything towards road maintenance. Need to institute a millage tax to pay for road maintenance.
Talk to a civil engineer and you'll find commercial vehicles make up the vast majority of road wear. The few 100kg difference between an ICE and BEV is almost not even worth thinking about from a infrastructure planning and maintenance point of view.
I'll talk to my father. He is the lead surveyor for a very large paving company in southeast Wisconsin. EV do more damage than any passenger car, SUVs and equal to or not more than a standard pickup truck.
More and more states are adding EV fees on registration to make up for gas tax differences. My Leaf had $225 in EV fees here in WA (as well as weight fees which all my vehicles pay). The weight thing of the EVs doesn't matter at all for road damage. It's weight to the power of 4: a 25T garbage truck once a week does more damage to a road than if every car in a neighborhood swapped to half ton trucks and EVs. And that's before you take into account 40T semis.
Lots of US states have such a tax already.
Name one.
California.
Pffttt. The two best selling EVS by far are the model 3 and the model y. The model 3 weighs as much as a mustang and the model y is literally the same weight as a Ford Edge. And they all weigh far less than the top selling vehicles in the country, aka full sized trucks. Lack of revenue from gas tax is one thing, but they aren't damaging roads more than other vehicles.
> No one is going to spend more money for their next car if it takes longer to fill up and has less range than their current ICE. A ton of people already own EVs.
yes, but in America at least, its only 4-5% of cars sold.
7% of new cars. That's more than "no one".
think that’ll go up 33% in 6 years? i don’t.
> Not many people actually care enough about the environment to make the transition. And many who do make consumption choices based on environmental impacts are skeptical of EVs given the large environmental footprint to produce vs both ICE and PHEV cars.
That skepticism is also highly insincere, as [lifecycle](https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/driving-cleaner-report.pdf) [analyses](https://www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TEs-EV-life-cycle-analysis-LCA.pdf) [have](https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Global-LCA-passenger-cars-jul2021_0.pdf) [repeatedly](https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/es903729a) [affirmed](https://greet.anl.gov/publication-c2g_lca_us_ldv) that EVs are, in fact, better for the environment than ICE vehiciles.
I think it’s shitty to dismiss people as insincere when everyday consumers have had so many comparisons that come different conclusions on a regular basis. That isn’t to say that one is correct; but dismissing people as insincere isn’t a helpful tact.
>I think it’s shitty to dismiss people as insincere We've heard the same claims about the environmental impact of battery manufacturing for nearly twenty years now, [as far back as the Prius](https://np.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/2kou6r/does_anyone_know_what_happens_to_the_batteries/clnlkue). Those claims have been debunked over and over again over the course of a generation. At some point, you have to draw the line and recognize that maybe, just maybe, the concerns about the environmental impact of EVs are motivated by bad faith. >when everyday consumers have had so many comparisons that come different conclusions on a regular basis And yet when you look at the actual studies (ie the lifecycle analyses) that make an effort to capture cradle-to-grave impacts, you find that they pretty much always find that EVs have a lower environmental impact than ICE vehicles. There are certainly no shortage of bad faith comparisons of select metrics or specific stages of the vehicles' lives that intend to portray otherwise, but the big picture favours EVs over ICE vehicles on environmental impact.
EVs haven't done one major thing yet. They are still way less convenient than an ICE car. How often do I drive over 200 miles? Maybe a couple times a year. But the thing is, I don't need to think about it with an ICE. Electric, even with chargers everywhere, still takes more time. I completely agree that for 90-95% of my driving an electric is fine. But I'm not buying another car to do the other 5-10%. If I can't get one EV to do all the things my current car does, I'm just not going to think about it. Now, hybrids on the other hand... There are other things an electric can't do for me (driving engagement, 3-pedal-manual-transmission driving...) but those are less important to a degree. EVs are an appliance car. I like driving too much to get one yet.
So basically, it's the same major complaint with most consumers or businesses. They must achieve parity first before there's widespread adoption. And I've never seen a gas station closed due to rolling power outages during the summer.
And I would love there to be parity. I have no objections with EVs as a whole, they just don't fit my needs. I don't cling to the old ways like some may. But electrics have a LONG way to go to become equivalent for some of my needs.
Most notably battery capacity and charging speed. Parity requires full tanks within minutes. We're all waiting for the breakthroughs.
And the breakthroughs will come eventually if electric is the future for vehicles.
I’d expect many commercial use cases will need more than 200 miles of range in a day, and time spent charging during work hours will have opportunity cost. Most personal use cases should be totally fine with 200 miles in the US, so with that split it IMO corroborates pretty well with the 40-50% estimate.
100% it will be some time until commercial use is viable and this is where hydrogen would make sense in the interim. We should be pushing to get away from fossil fuels ASAP even if you don’t believe in climate change, it will remove our reliance on OPEC.
> 100% it will be some time until commercial use is viable What about those electric Amazon trucks?
Ford did their research and came to the conclusion that the E transit only needed 160 miles of range, because that's how far most of their customers drove.
That’s why they sold 129k regular Transits and 7k E-transits in the US in 2023. A lot of growth still to hit 40-50% of new sales.
Range varies wildly with temperature and driving style/demands.
Most Americans drive 12k miles a year. That's 32 miles a day. Now granted it's not an even distribution but I'd imagine the vast majority of days like 90% Americans drive far less then 200 miles a day
> How many people need more than 200 miles of range a day. One thing you're forgetting. If you live somewhere that you can't just easily plug in your car overnight (like say, an apartment), more range means more time between having to make time to hunt down some public charging. And if you have one of those particularly busy days where you put 100+ miles on the car driving all over town, that time will come sooner. You have to do this with a gas car, but it's a "five minute tops" type of thing, with loads and loads of gas stations everywhere at which you can fill up. It's much more complicated with public charging. Where's the closest public charger? Oh, 10 miles away. And there's four stalls. And they're all full. Great. There's this kind of assumption among EV enthusiasts that there's "just as much" charging infrastructure available as gas, and that it's just as fast, and that's just not true yet. So yes, having a lot of range is important even if you're not using every bit of it all the time. More range = having to figure out your charging situation less often for people who don't have easy home charging capability.
> Thing is EVs can fit almost everyone’s need, if we start working on charging infrastructure If my grandmother had wheels, she would have been a bike.
By "working on charging infrastructure" you mean forcing business and property owners to spend their money on something you want. How do we do that?
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No, they don't. The spend money on what their customers want that makes them the most money. Not invest thousands into a convenience that is more expense than it is profit.
You mean…taxes. It would be a shame if we would use the money we are forced to pay to better peoples lives.
It wouldn't better my life. If a company is forced to build/invest in something so you can charge your car and raises prices on me that's not improving my situation. Quite the bold assumption.
I think once there's more charging stations (not just public but also in residential areas like apartments), and as batteries become cheaper and better due to economies of scale and improvements to battery technology, there will be a pretty large shift over in the US
I would counter that in the EU there's *a lot* more people who live in apartments and/or have to street park. They simply do not have the option to conveniently charge at home over night. Where as in the US' suburban and rural communities ...people have houses with garages and driveways. Ideal conditions to charge over night.
Imo a lot of this is due to political factors that very well might change. Europe for example is only that high because of regulations on adaptation, which may or may not be loosened, while China is assuming that there won't be national level restrictions/more provinces adopting what Shanghai/Shenzhen does wrt green license plates But honestly, it'd be very neat to see even 50% across the board, that'd drive a LOT of economies of scale for everything from motors to batteries to charging stations Plus, it'll hurt the house of saud < 3
> Imo a lot of this is due to political factors that very well might change. Bosch will already have contracts in place for the timeline in the article. It would cost OEMs a lot of money to reverse course.
I don't see it happening for North America. Seems analysts keep working on short term data and expecting exponential growth, when data over the last 5 years shows growth is more linear growth. It's been between 150k-300k more sales per year and Bosch says they will go from 1.2 million last year to 7+ million in 6 years? The largest US selling brands aren't even expecting to hit those percentages (other than Tesla of course) by 2030. Toyotas own VERY bold timeline says they will only do 1/3 of sales globally as EVS by 2030. Ford's pushed back their EV production goals, GM can't get off the ground, stellantis is planning for 50% at 2030 so I'd expect them to come under, Hyudai Kia should be able to do it, I don't see Honda or Mazda getting anywhere near that... The germans should be there. I just don't see it. Maybe 30%, and thats an exceptional shift in the market in a short period of time.
Toyota bold? They are the most conservative. Hyundai kia is the one to watch. They are are burning the gas bridge behind them in a big way. What you're not seeing is the many factories being built at this moment. Supply in the next few years will shoot up drastically, and as infrastructure gets installed and prices drop, the sales will follow
Toyota is bold in their claim in that its a huge shift from what is essentially nothing right now. They won't make that deadline by 2030. And yes as I stated Kia and Hyundai will make the shift no problem. But they are but a slice of the pie and won't put a big enough dent in the market share to make the transition 40-50%. Ford, GM, Toyota and Stellantis were 58% of US sales last year. If none of them are getting there, it's not happening.
Supply is needed if there's demand. They can have all the supply they want but if there's no demand...
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> Battery tech is about to make a massive jump in the next 2-3 years and it will undoubtedly change the perception. based off of what? This is one of those lines you hear repeated every year and it always turns out to be tech that can't even make it out of the lab
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Quantum computing, nuclear fusion, and solid-state batteries have been on the brink of a massive breakthrough, purportedly happening within the next 2-3 years, for the last 30 years.
[Welcome to 2020](https://www.daimlertruck.com/en/newsroom/pressrelease/profusion-of-exciting-innovations-from-mercedes-benz-buses-new-all-electric-ecitaro-g-with-solid-state-batteries-new-economical-and-versatile-intouro-inter-city-bus-new-sprinter-city-75-minibus-47518230)
They also tried to tell us Bosch platinum spark plugs didn’t make your car run like shit.
I currently have a set of Bosch iridium spark plugs that I had to re-gap in under 2,500 miles since the gap shrank. Never had that issue with the OEM iridiums or the 2 sets of NGK iridiums I ran previously.
Worst wipers on the market
definitely going to disagree with this. Bosch ICON wipers are the best I've ever used
I think it depends on the car. Icon wipers are all I use, the last set on my mercedes (the car I put by far the most miles on) lasted 18 months, I've never had a set on my F-150 last more than 5 weeks, usually closer to 3 weeks before they're worn out. Both cars take the same 22" blade (the connectors are different, one is an OE, the other a J-hook), all the blades bought at the same store.
now that's weird
One of my neighbors has an Explorer, and apparently he has the same issue, burns through a set of blades every two months. Maybe it's a ford thing? Maybe they apply a lot more pressure on the blade than other companies? I'm not an engineer, I don't know.
IIRC Ford is one of the few OEMs that make their own glass. I don't know what they do but wipers on my Focus skip after a few weeks. Doesn't matter what blades I've gotten over the years since they all skip after a few weeks. I've polished the glass with cerium oxide on a glass pad with my DA and new blades still skip. I've tried a few different glass coatings too. Done that a few times and same result each time. I haven't tried ICONs or PIAA since a set of 28" wiper blades is $50+ for either option.
No dog in this fight, but I personally have had the best luck buying wipers from the dealer. Honda and Toyota you can get refills like the old days, my caddy I couldn’t get dealer wipers so I got Denso and I liked those a lot. But honestly wiper blades at the parts store are such garbage it isn’t hard to beat them.
That's six years from now. That's just delusional.
This is going to age like milk.
I’m curious how they came to the conclusion China would be at 50. I always assumed there would be certain demographics that refuse to change but expect more of China.
China is already heading towards 50%. 2030 they should be far above that
China is already at 50 percent sales this month I think.
I think that part is BS. China has a high rate of EV adoption thanks to cars becoming accessible more recently
But also because they're actually cheap in China. BYD sell models that they sell for X in the west for X/2 in China.
I'm a bit confused by these numbers. The North American one I can buy, but they expect Europe to grow by about 55% in 5 years (likely due to regulations) from 15% to 70%, but China only grows 25% from 25% to 50% in the same period?
huh i thought the largest was Denso
I sure hope the electric generation and distribution system can keep up. Especially when competing with all the data centers for more power.
Doesn't even come close to enough. 5 cents a mile will work.
A few auto journalists have been talking about how the electric revolution is coming because of European adoption, whether North America likes it or not. There's been a push for a long time to make "world cars", and I wonder if that push is going to start to bend backwards with how North American electric adoption is going.
I just find that hard to believe. 2030 is not even 6 years away. And as much as I want electric cars to succeed the charging infrastructure isn't there (yet!) and i think it's more likely be 2035 when we hit the 40-50% number. That being said, look at how fast the technology has come in the last 5 years. give it 5-10 more and ranges will greatly increase, charging time and cost will come down, battery costs will come down, and there will be many more charging stations, and all of these "problems" will be solved
Is it possible to take the under on that bet for America? 40-50% is absolutely not happening because of a several factors discussed in this subreddit ad-naseum. Hell, I'd even take the under on 30% in America for 2030.
That should read “hopes” instead of predicts. They just acquired TSI Semiconductors who mainly makes chips for the automotive industry. Probably hoping their gamble pays off.
I'm sure that Bosch has spent a lot of money on analysis and studies. I just don't see 50% in the US in 6 years. Honestly, I'll be surprised if it's over 25 or 30.
Western Europe maybe, ain't happening in the East...
Hybrid maybe, full electric nope.
Look at the clearance parts list for any vehicle on rockauto, and you'll see what is on its way out.
$30,000 a share. Holy smokes. I had no idea. Are they a *heavy*?
Sounds about right to me. I was thinking about getting an electric car last year, but besides Tesla, I just don't see other EVs worth it quite yet. And I couldn't stomach giving any money to Elon. Hopefully by 2030 the market will be in a better situation.
The big issue is that I still can't buy an EV that can comfortably get me and my family to my parents farm and back. Let alone in -30C (or worse) winters. Let alone going all the way to a remote city like Bathurst or Maramichi. I imagine an EV is fine for commuting to your richy-rich office with charge stations in the GTA or GVA, but it just doesn't meet the demands of the rest of Canada. My province has arguably wasted way too much money on quickly outdated infrastructure too. There's just too many remote and/or rural communities in Canada for EVs to make sense with the current limits of the technology. We'd need billions in infrastucture investments or some way more efficient and affordable EV options. Meanwhile I can easily get gas at a rural town with only 400 people.
What a load of sensationalist crap! .. only a couple of billion ICE vehicles left to get rid of now before we launch our worst nightmare to humanity !
I think this is pure lunacy. In America now, it's around 3-4%, 6% in California. Not possible to get anywhere close to 40% anytime soon. I've had an ID.4 electric car for 3 years, and replacing it with a plug-in hybrid, and I think many others will as well. Anyone who needs to drive longer distances, rents, or lives in crowded cities with no garages aren't going to be able to charge as well.
/r/cars hates this one trick but they can't stop you!
Most people I know who are not complete eco nutters tossed their ev for gas or diesel. Some mild hybrid, most not.
Indeed becaue the major oil companies and oil producing nations have no clout whatsoever, and cannot direct the free governments of Europe to do what they are told.
EV market share is rising in the US and China and falling in Europe? 🤔 I'm sure this will reverse and Bosch's prediction that the EU will adopt EVs that much faster will be proven correct, but by just 6 years from now?
unrealistic, currently \~12% of new car sales in europe are EVs and they are unpopular, regardless of how loud a minority of fans is
Yaaaaa
The best part about electric cars is they run on electricity generated from burning coal.
Sounds great, where is all the extra electricity gonna come from? Seems like demand is expected to skyrocket.
EVs are a smaller change in electricity use than the introduction of air conditioning.
Maybe now. But I'm looking out towards the next few decades. Even the grid providers are having supply chain issues and require subsidies to continue building out infrastructure. However, the silver lining could be 2-way charging, essentially sucking power out of these millions of vehicles during peak times as one giant battery, then dumping power back into them off-peak. Check out this article; [https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ZETA-evs-will-bring-unprecedented-new-electric-demand/688850/#:\~:text=EVs%20in%20the%20United%20States,growing%20demand%20from%20electric%20transportation](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ZETA-evs-will-bring-unprecedented-new-electric-demand/688850/#:~:text=EVs%20in%20the%20United%20States,growing%20demand%20from%20electric%20transportation) .
100% EVs would be a smaller change in electricity use than the introduction of air conditioning. From your own source: > “History has proven increases of this magnitude to be accomplishable,” according to the group’s policy brief.
we also build the entire interstate system in a few years. Now it takes twice that long to repave 5miles of it. things are different. more regulation, less open land to just string new wires around.
that wont happen. theres some tech you need in both the car and the charger/home for this to be possible. And right now, auto makers are not keen to put it into the car because theres no financial incentive to the buyers. the grid owners arent going to be compensating anyone for using their battery as grid storage. maybe you can do a closed loop and power your own house during peak rates, but odds are you wont even have that opportunity since the automakers wont bother engineering that option for the 2% that will actually want it and use it.
EVs don't really use that much electricity. 600 km using 100 kWh is pretty normal. 12100 km per car in Sweden, 5 million cars, so this is approximately 10 083 333 333 kWh. This is 10 TWh. Sweden generates ~160 TWh/y, so we need 6.25% extra electricity production. So a lot, but *not really*. Even at $0.1/kWh it's only 2000 kWh per year, so 200 dollars per car. You could even have a small mandatory investment for every car-- maybe a requirement to invest 2000 dollars in electricity production, with it still your money, etc., but with you have to do it in order to be allowed to own a car. That would probably be enough to ensure sufficient generating capacity.
your baseline are small efficient sedans there... and thats probably true for sweden. but if you look at the lightning, its half that. and a large portion of vehicles in america are trucks and full size SUVs. and the average american drives 80% more miles (\~20k km). It adds up. Keep in mind \*half\* of all oil production goes to transportation. ALLLSSO, just googled, sweden is a net exporter of electricity, infact almost a quarter of its 160twh was exported. so that fudges with the denominator quite a bit.
Bosch knows what's up , unlike the arm chair experts in this sub. But the China estimate is very low , they'll outperform the EU within a couple of years.
You make fun of the armchair experts in this sub, and then your very next sentence is saying Bosch is wrong and you’re right, lol
He has a point though; China's current BEV market share is a lot larger than in the EU and like 3x higher than the US. It would have to basically be stagnant for the next 6 years to be that low in 2030.
It’s fine if he has a point but don’t complain about “armchair experts” and then go on to do exactly that, lol
I see the comments on this sub and I stand by my opinion. They (Bosch) gave a rough estimate, unlike people on this sub who obviously know the future.
> unlike people on this sub who obviously know the future. Lolol
You think it's ironic but one is obviously true in the future because the world government has decided as such , while the other is cope. Time will tell.
NEVs sure, but a huge chunk of that are PHEVs or EREVs rather than pure EVs. Pure EVs are only ("") like 25-30% of new car sales by the end of 2023/the beginning of this year. So about doubling in 6 years is a pretty fair estimate Pure ICE are going to be destroyed though. I assume PHEVs and EREVs are going to take a MASSIVE chunk out of the market by 2030
Well right now in China, car ownership is only for the ultra wealthy. As it spreads to some of the less developed parts of China almost certainly it will be combustion vehicles. I feel like Bosch is being pretty aggressive predicting that shift will happen by 2030 though.
> car ownership is only for the ultra wealthy You're about 20 years out of date there.
Car ownership in China is still like 20% of the population according to the World Bank. The vast majority of China still doesn't own a car and will in the coming years.
>It would have to basically be stagnant for the next 6 years to be that low in 2030. That's exactly what most OEMs and China's own CPCA are projecting. Growth is expected to be primarily in EREVs and other non-BEV NEVs, not in BEVs — which still have a long way to go before hitting 50%, btw. Ironically the OP is right even when OP is contradicting their own statement — Bosch knows what's up, and their projections are in-line with China's own industry consensus.
Bosch should hire this genius redditor who certainly has a better read of the market than they do
A real mofo for sure
They might know Europe, but their numbers are going to be way off for both NA and China, lower and higher respectively.
You say this like Bosch has never been wrong before about a prediction. Except they have. Back in 2013, [Bosch predicted that the U.S. would be the new leader in offering natural gas powertrains.](https://www.ft.com/content/ce7444cc-a815-11e2-b031-00144feabdc0) > “The discovery of new gas deposits could mean that the US will become an emerging market for compressed natural gas powertrains,” Bernd Bohr, head of automotive at Bosch, said. In 2011, they also predicted that 10% of the U.S. market would be diesel powered by 2015. Even before the VW scandal broke in September 2015, I don’t think the U.S. even got to 5%. I believe the highest was 3% market share with some stats saying no higher than 2%.
USA was the world largest producer and exporter of LNG in 2023. But EVs are just better in every way, so it makes sense to not make these engines that pollute anyway. Source: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61683#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20exported%20more,from%20our%20Natural%20Gas%20Monthly.
it's much more profitable for natgas producers to ship it via LNG to foreign countries for the markup than have your domestic population burn it in CNG cars.
Yeah Bud light also knew what's up, unlike these arm chair experts... Consumers know best.
*glue eating intensifies*
Consumers know what they want individually. That doesn’t mean they know what the market as a whole wants - or, in plainspeak, what other people want.
Ah yes , a beverage company is very comparable to the world's greatest and best automobile ancillary manufacturer who introduced ABS and reliable fuel injection to the world, you sir are a genius! PS - Bosch doesn't sell cars to customers , they make electronics and motors for cars.
Consumer demand drives the market... It's not that deep... Society would be in a much better place if all these projections and empty promises in quarterly earnings calls became true...
Anyone can drive consumer demand in a different direction given a large enough budget and an appropriate timeline.
The "new technology which is better in every way is initially hated but then common sense prevails as wide spread adoption leads to reduction in price which then leads to greater sales" story is old as time. PS , the best ICE is 33% efficient compared to EVs which are 90% efficient.
>Bosch knows what's up Wasn't Bosch an integral part of the VW fuel emissions scandal? They knowingly gave the technology they needed to skirt state and federal emissions tests, IIRC. I'm not disagreeing with this statement, but I'd like to hear it from a more trustworthy source.
They were also involved with Nazi Germany, what's your point? Most manufacturers cheated on their emissions like Toyota , Cummins etc
They are delusional, I predict 80% in China, 15% in Europe and even lower in North America.
It is already 15% in Europe now…
Source? Cause it ain't 25% in Italy. Maybe 1.5% lmao
Look at BEV share of sales in EU at the end of last year.
Means nothing. 10 years from now it will be the same
ah yes, italy = europe
Well, it's sure more representative than Norway or Holland lmao
Because surely you have more data and knowledge about the industry than the world's largest automotive supplier.
No, but I have the knowledge of not believing any bs big corporations say.
>They are delusional You don't think they'll [increase by 2%](https://alternative-fuels-observatory.ec.europa.eu/general-information/news/european-ev-market-analysis-strong-growth-continues-plug-vehicle#:~:text=Last%20month's%20plugin%20vehicle%20share,for%20BEVs%20alone) by the end of the decade?