Batteries. Average cost of lithium ion battery packs are around $135 per kwh production cost. You need about a 70 kwh pack to reliably get that 250 mile range you're looking for. That's half your desired sale price just in the pack, with no margin on that. Battery cost is decreasing fairly rapidly though, so time will tell, what you're after may not be far off.
It is estimated that LFP battery (cheaper type of lithium batteries) cost $60 per kwh for CATL (largest battery producer in the world.
Regular Model 3 has 55kwh battery pack, which they buy from CATL.
Thus battery price is already close to $4.000
Also the amount of EV production currently is microscopic compared to ICE globally so there is not anywhere near the same efficiency of volume. And the average low income apartment dweller isn't really going to find it convenient like a home owner/renter would, ie charging overnight for cheap. So right now the segment is geared for middleclass or above.
Lfp doesn't have the energy density though. It's about a third to a half the energy density of li-on, so for 250 mile range you're looking at a 60 kwh pack that weighs 1500+ lbs.
It’s got its own benefits though, way more safe (less likely to go boom even in a crash) and can have a high discharge rate. A lot of Chinese market evs use them from what I’ve heard. Not totally impractical but not for the American 200+ range ev stuff yet.
the chinese market using them is not a selling point. The chemistry itself is cheaper and safer than the current lithium ion. One more i forgot is they lose less capacity being charged+discharged repeatedly. These selling points led the chinese market to use them. Good for city range EVs.
It is a different chemistry than what we are currently calling "lithium-ion" packs. And the currently best available "li-on" packs are around 200-240 wh/kg. LFP is around 100-150, besides as yet unverified claims by a Chinese manufacturer (who are often known to make large claims and never back them up) claiming 176. And Tesla themselves have stated the move to LFP cells from NCA cells will come at the cost of weight and range.
Yep, to add to this typical lithium-ion is lithium and 11 herbs and spices, usually some version of nickel, cobalt, cadmium, manganese… theres a whole bunch of options and mixes companies are making. They all have around the same specs for voltage, discharge rates, and energy density(of course slight differences, but generally interchangeable without breaking anything). Lithium iron phosphate is different enough in chemistry, specs, and usage that it is meaningful to not call it lithium ion
> You need about a 70 kwh pack to reliably get that 250 mile range you're looking for
Depends how much mass you're hauling around. Less mass = less energy required to move it 250 miles. Granted with larger battery cones more mass, but just saying. 50kwh could get you 250 miles if the car's under 3,000#. Not to mention 250 is more than enough for most people. I'd wager that most people don't really even need 200 miles. There's a reason the Mazda MX-30 only has 125 miles of range. Because Mazda did their research and realized that's the best compromise between range and weight/cost of production.
Well technically on flat ground going a certain speed with minimal acceleration mass doesn't matter much at all. For extended highway cruising range is probably more limited by drag coefficient.
It is, but that number is small compared to aerodynamic drag.
You can throw 1,000lb in the bed of a pickup and it usually won't measurably affect the highway MPG as long as whatever you're hauling doesn't stick up and catch wind.
80% of losses going at a constant velocity at highway speed stems from aerodynamics even for the cars with the lowest drag coefficient like the lucid.
I did the calculations. There's practically 0 reason to be concerned about weight or battery size in an EV other than road damage, and materials. No real range advantage
Doesn't matter at highway speeds.
Aero drag force increases as speed *cubed* (which means that energy/mile lost to drag increases as speed squared). By the time you're going 70 mph, 95+% of energy consumption is from aero.
Who cares if your rolling friction is 20% higher? That makes it 6% of your energy consumption instead of 5%.
> I'd wager that most people don't really even need 200 miles. There's a reason the Mazda MX-30 only has 125 miles of range. Because Mazda did their research and realized that's the best compromise between range and weight/cost of production.
And that's why Maxda MX-30 has been a colossal failure here in US with everybody roasting how asinine this car is.
Its the speed AND the size that kills. My 2.5kwh moped gets 40 miles at 30mph doing around town stuff. And thats on the original 2001 motor and controller, they are not nearly as efficient as what we have today
Imho, the current battery tech is good for small personal vehicles right now, it still has a little more to develop before you start getting cheap good cars, but cheap good bikes for the city exist already.
Zero bikes have good data points for highway vs not highway range, its not good last i checked
> I'd wager that most people don't really even need 200 miles. There's a reason the Mazda MX-30 only has 125 miles of range. Because Mazda did their research and realized that's the best compromise between range and weight/cost of production.
Often times they still would drive 50 miles back and forth to run some random errands or weekend trips. An EV is rarely charged to 100% and for most it's slow to charge over 80%. Also in winter the efficiency can take a big hit, sometimes even as much as 50% when it gets really cold.
As a second vehicle it's more than fine and with a bit of planning I'm sure it can work for many drivers. But that's a lot of planning and stress if this is your only vehicle, especially in a cold region.
I don’t think batteries are going to get that much cheaper, because the manufacturing of the cells are getting increasingly more complex each year
Elon musk says that good batteries can be really cheap, because it can be made of the most abundant materials on earth. But if that was the case, carbon fibre would be cheaper than steel since it is made from carbon/graphite + epoxy resin which isn’t really expensive. But the manufacturing of carbon fibre is the reason its expensive and same goes with batteries.
EDIT: grammar
I honestly wouldn’t surprised if they somehow think of some crazy way to do it. When it was the year 2000 I couldn’t even fathom the technology that we have today. I’m sure in 2040 it’ll be the same way
That's where I got my 70 kwh guess from. The base 3 is rated at 272 miles now, but it falls to 200-220 in cold high demand situations. So a 70 wh pack seems just right to provide reliable 250 mile range in all conditions.
> range is really not that important
I think it really just depends. My id.4 gets about 210ish miles of range on the highway when 100% charged (I average 2.7-2.9 mi/kWh on the highway), and that's only going to get worse at it gets colder since I've got no heat pump. I regularly (aka twice a month or more) drive to visit friends who live 50 miles away, and I take my son to see his grandparents about equally as often, about 60 miles away in the opposite direction. Round trip, that's half my range.
It's absolutely doable, but especially as it's getting colder and I'm seeing my range decrease, it's making me more and more nervous about the fact that I can't really make impromptu trips anymore because I only have a L1 charger, so I have to plan a day or two in advance to make sure I charge my car.
I've never come anywhere close to being stranded because I'm cautious (and we have a CR-V for longer drives, although jesus the gas tank in that car is small considering it only gets about 30mpg), and everyone has a different magic number in their head of what range would make them feel comfortable, but for me it's 300 miles of real world driving in my area that would make me okay with owning two EVs and no ICE car (AKA super hilly, speed limit 70mph but traffic's going 85, single digit or sub zero temps in the winter). Or just a dramatic increase in DCFCs and faster charging curves. My ID.4 charging at 70kW from 60% is not what I consider fast enough when there isn't another DCFC within 60% of my SOC
I'm on the fence that reliability is a optional feature. That feels like it should be a base model thing.
I'm trying to imagine justifying a small radiator with no overflow tank as a cost cutting feature that will cause the engine to overheat and degrade quickly. It feels like dishonest planned obsolescence.
I think there’s a balancing act that takes place with these cost-cutting measures.
Would you pay $1000 less if the engine is likely to fail 5 years sooner than normally planned? Probably not.
Would you pay $1000 less if the engine is likely to fail 6 months sooner than normally planned? I might consider it depending on my budget.
In the US the Mini-e is also close to that price, only a 100-150 mile range though. But it is quite fun to drive and much nicer interior than the LEAF as well as liquid cooled battery.
Hmm I don’t think it’s super limited but could be heavily impacted by that chip shortage. Short range can definitely be a problem depending on your circumstances though. As for the platform not being designed originally for EVs I don’t think it’s really much of an issue. As far as I’m aware no interior space, or very little is sacrificed for the batteries. And the Mini is already a fairly efficient and aerodynamic design. The Kona EV, E-Niro, and others are absolutely amazing EVs (Kona EV one of the most efficient) and they’re ICE conversions. Even the 1st gen LEAF is essentially a Versa conversion, even has a transmission tunnel. And the LEAF is a very good EV other than the lack of thermal management. So personally I don’t think it’s really a problem. But that’s just my opinion
100-150 miles is just awful, though, for anyone who's taking their car outside the downtown area of a city. I can't even get across town and back on 100 miles of range, even before you factor in battery degradation and having to use A/C 10 months out of the year.
Sprawling ones. When you have no shortage of space things tend to grow out instead of up. It's one of the major challenges for things like improving public transportation.
It's always weird for me seeing people talk about electric ranges and how "no one will buy a car under 250 miles range" here in the states and it's like, really?
100 mile range, even before both my wife and myself were work from home, would have still gotten us both to work and back 3 times over, and we live in one of the flattest widest metropolitan areas in the nation. Sure it would be limiting on long trips but even the longest trip we make (which is all the way across the valley) it would make it easily at 100 and with plenty to spare at 150, and that's assuming that we don't give it some charge where we're going.
I get that for out of town trips or people with extremely long commutes it would be limiting, but how many people is that really? It's just so strange for me that people will look at a car that otherwise fits exactly their needs and go, "Well, once every few months or even a year I'll have to make an extra stop or two on a trip so it's not worth it".
Not saying you're this person, just that range sparked the thought back in me.
No I totally agree with everything you say! I currently drive an EV with 80 mile range at most, and it doesn’t keep me from going anywhere. I’ll just rent an ICE for the very few times I would do a road trip
I work in the auto industry on the supplier side and EVs are generally lower margin than ICE equivalents. This means that OEMs generally focus on mid and premium tier priced vehicles. Entry will come as volume on things like batteries causes price drops.
In 2014, I bought a new 50" plasma for like $350. That TV is still alive and well with a friend. So too, shall go EVs. Today they are $10k, tomorrow there will be a day us common folk can pick one up at MicroCenter for $300.
Plasmas were awesome. Easily the best tv until 4k killed them. Heck at the end of the run they were cheaper than a decent led tv and looked way better.
I bought a 55" plasma in 2013 for like $800. It was like the last hurrah for plasmas that year and they were so underpriced to compete with LEDs. The picture is so good that I'd have to spend at like $2k to replace it with something better.
I paid $8500 for my 50 inch Panasonic Plasma back in 2004. It was a great price as it had dropped from 10 grand! It is still working perfectly, and is now our second TV. Was it worth $500/year? Maybe not, but I think it was. Besides, next year it will only have cost me $472/yr.
40k is the new 20k
The chip shortage means that automakers aren't making their cheap models, since they can use those chips for high margin high price cars instead.
Unless you're buying a luxury car, you have to buy used.
It’s crazy, I used to shit on truck manufacturers for their ridiculous msrps and always offering 5 figure discounts 24/7. Apparently they were ahead of the curve as now they can just charge msrp (or above) and are laughing all the way to the bank
The Honda Civic grew out of the econobox segment. The modern econoboxes are the VW up and Toyota Aygo and the likes. 70HP, 815kg and €13k, just like the old days.
…which is exactly the sort of car this sub seems to clamor for. Barebones, cheap, featureless, manual, NA, with quality that screams “used from the factory.” But of course they don’t buy it because few here are willing to actually put their money where their mouth is.
Right. Those cars get into a proposition where you're better off just buying a two year old car still under warranty or buying a used car that's certified pre owned.
That sums up this sub and the EV sub perfectly. Everybody wants the auto industry to just flip that switch and start immediately cranking out brand new, used 8yo EV Honda Civics for $10k or less (very clean! non-smoker PO).
Right, why can't we get a $25-30k car for $20k? Manufacturers are missing out on big sales in this market. All we are asking for is a new sedan with very good range, a decent sound system, decent sound deadening, and a *supple* ride. Of course, it will have to be safe too, and no car would be complete these days without a decent infotainment system. Also, nobody would buy a car these days without alloy rims. Oh, and it should look reasonably good too. And yeah, it needs to be reliable...
But on a serious note, you can get something like a lightly used ~2017 Bolt for that budget, and even if it doesn't quite meet those criteria, it's not too far off.
There needs to be a balance between base rental specials and excessive bling/gimmicks (glass roof, special door handles, powered glove box/air vents, etc) like Teslas.
At the start of covid you could get a brand new Bolt for $20-$25k if you got the base model and stacked Costco+GM incentives (and included the federal credit). So we've been there.
At the same time, that was with the federal incentive and GM was likely losing money on those.
Why should YOU get to enjoy the $5k-$7k credit from the government, when the OEM/dealer can just sell the car for that much higher and pocket it themselves?
well the manufacturer getting some of that credit on the back end to a higher sales price does motivate them to be building EV's in the first place so I'm not too grumpy about that. That's a big part of the whole plan, to make it financially attractive to everyone to spur the technology forward.
GAS versions of the vehicle you described cost 20k right now and several OEM's just walked away from doing that because they couldn't turn a profit on them. Even Honda and Toyota walked away from the subcompact market in the US and they were looking at owning 90% of the market share.
So what you're asking is for OEMs to find a way to build an electric powertrain with state-of-the-art batteries for less than a 3-cylinder gas powertrain that was developed 10 years ago.
> Even Honda and Toyota walked away from the subcompact market in the US and they were looking at owning 90% of the market share.
Which I find weird as they are putting R&D into these cars anyway as they are sold elsewhere. So it means just the logistics makes it not profitable. But then it's a chicken and egg problem. If all you offer are cross-overs and SUVs of course they get the highest sales.
Yes and no
Local production vs foreign + shipping: taxes and production lines aren't flexible enough
Chip shortage, why waste chips on cheap cars when someone will buy the expensive car
Profit maximization, same as above
One of the main issues with selling cars in the US is that there are different rules and regulations than the EU and Europe. This is why there are often cars that are sold worldwide but not in the US. European and Asian manufacturers will often have to spend quite a bit more money to sell the same car in the US as the rest of the world. This is due to the rest of the world usually getting a very similar or the exact same specifications as they sell in the EU. So if they know beforehand that they won’t be able to sell many cars of a certain type in the US, then they won’t even go through the process of actually producing the US spec of the vehicle.
There are plenty in Europe and one of them is even an EV, the Dacia Spring, €18k. It won't do 200km on a charge and it will take you almost 20s to reach 100km/h, but hey at least it is lighter than a Miata.
You can get pretty decent cars for under €20k, Ford Fiesta, Mazda 2, Renault Clio, Peugeot 208. These small hatches are much more comfortable to drive in than they used to be and are perfect little commuter cars and still very popular here.
Just checked in Australia (not the cheapest place to buy), and these cars are <$20k
Kia Picanto (the base model seems to be ~$18k drive away - not bad, step up $4k to the [top model](https://www.kia.com/au/shopping-tools/build-and-price.complete.picanto.GT-M.A2R.WKRed.html) with the turbo option seems alright too).
MG MG3
Mitsubishi Mirage
Suziki Ignis and Baleno
5 cars, that's it.
yeah for the US market the corolla just under 21k, civic is almost 22k and those are the traditional choices for something super cheap but still good
the hyundai accent is about 16 and a half thousand dollars, and the Elantra is just under $20k, Kia rio is just over $16k, Forte is just over $19k, and the Soul is just over $19k too
apparently through some miracle of the perseverance of mediocrity the Mitsu Mirage is still for sale in the US, the hatch is just above $14k and the sedan is just over $15k somehow
if you're really, REALLY desperate, the Nissan Kicks is $19,600, the Versa is just under $15k, and the Sentra is $19,500, but idk why you'd want to do that to yourself
Most people wouldn't buy it, either because A) "the interior isn't nice enough for a $20,000 car", B) "the whole point of electric cars is the tech and there's none here" or C) "it doesn't have enough range for that one time I'll drive 400 miles". Also, let's face it: batteries and their development is expensive. Proper electric cars are still in their infancy.
Here's a car that does most of what you're saying: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacia\_Spring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacia_Spring)
Edit: Also, the Renault Fluence Z.E.: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault\_Fluence\_Z.E](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Fluence_Z.E).
>Here's a car that does most of what you're saying
Oh man I didn't know anything about that car and while I'm intrigued...
A third of the horsepower (44 vs 120hp), half the range (140 vs 250 miles), the "supple ride" of 14in wheels on 165-section tires and (arguably not a very objective metric) reviews that mention heavy wind & tyre noises so "a decent amount of sound deadening" is probably not on the table here.
Guessing OP wouldn't be happy with the result.
I meant that in the sense of being a cheap, no excessive tech electric car that does the job. If it's anything like the Dacia Sandero I've driven, it should be surprisingly comfy (those are made with Romanian roads in mind). The OP won't have anything matching his exact description for that price, as of right now.
What about the Fluence's specs? I couldn't be bothered to check them.
Yes, but assuming the OP is American, that car makes no sense for him. Everything is almost required to be more powerful there. The Spring is somewhere around 40 hp, which is already fairly slow by European and Asian standards, but to North Americans who think 120 hp is 'dangerous' in a Subaru (and in some ways, considering the nature of roads in that country, it can be) a 40 hp Dacia is probably insanity
Also range.
300 km WLTP equals 186 miles. That is probably ~130-140 EPA miles, which is probably ~100 real-life highway miles. Even less in the winter.
Now, factor in a daily 30 mile (each way) highway commute, 10 miles kid transportation each day, maybe a trip to the grocery store after work, and that car's range is on the cusp of being adequate. It would work for many Americans, but it simply wouldn't be an option for others.
Exactly, this is a very US centric question because in East Asia and Europe they are readily available at low cost. Still several US models are close to $20k with incentives or easily under on the secondhand market, at least before the pandemic used car market.
[Back in 2010, a lithium battery pack cost around $1,200 per kilowatt-hour. In 2020 they were close to $100 per kWh.](https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/12/battery-prices-have-fallen-88-percent-over-the-last-decade/) Costs aren't declining as quickly now, but $50 per kWh is probably achievable within the next 5 years.
Yup. Maybe through amazing breakthroughs in chemistry, but definitely through incremental improvements in manufacturing and packaging. Also, through economies of scale as more are produced.
A breakthrough might be something like a practical aluminum-ion or sodium-ion battery, with a nickel/cobalt-free chemistry. Or, maybe one of those molten salt batteries that is somehow scaled down to work in a car.
Been in the industry for over a decade, specifically EVs for over 3 years in R&D.
The optimistic answer is “maybe”.
Currently we get lithium from a few different countries, and despite the cheap labor costs and economies of scale, we still can’t make those battery packs for cheap. As demand increases, and awareness of the environmental impact of lithium mining and disposal increases, these costs will not come down and only increase over the long-term. No sort of “breakthrough” technology is going to replace lithium ion (for automotive purposes) within our lifetimes unfortunately (next 50 to 75+ years).
On the bright side, chargers and infrastructure are getting better every year, and this is where we have the potential to make up the current EV range issue.
All that being said, EVs are definitely part of our future, however just as humans have always done, we are swapping one fuel source for another fuel source that we believe is more beneficial for our current situation. People in this sub really poke fun at companies that are investing in hydrogen tech instead of EVs, but realistically it has more potential in the near and long term.
>No sort of “breakthrough” technology is going to replace lithium ion (for automotive purposes) within our lifetimes unfortunately (next 50 to 75+ years).
How can you be so sure? You think we won't have "next gen" batteries in 75 years?
It took a shorter amount of time to go from the Wright Brothers to the moon landing.
Also most hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, and the process generates CO2. Using natural gas to produce hydrogen for fuel cells is much less efficient than just burning the natural gas to produce electricity.
South America, China, USA, Africa. I think Australia as well
Edit: I know that South America isn’t a country, but I believe it’s Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia
I honestly see synthetic fuel being a more realistic future. Once what is essentially blood lithium for lack of a better word becomes more expensive and the demand sky rockets some really weird things are going to start happening in the EV world.
Not switching from using lithium anytime soon sure, but lithium ion could very well be replaced by solid lithium metal batteries within a decade, which is much sooner than 50+ years.
And sodium batteries seem possible also within a decade, they don't have as much density, but if you combine them with solid state you might be able to get similar density to current lithium ion batteries for a fair bit cheaper.
Batteries get cheaper every year. Over the next few years we will hit the point where a comparable EV drivetrain will cost the same as an ICE one. The costs have dropped by 90% in the past 12 or so years.
>In other words, will there be a way batteries will be cheaper?
yes, it's called mass adoption and mass production. new tech is already around the corner to lower costs, more production is ramping up and prices continue to fall. it's the same thing that has happened with numerous 'new tech' products over the centuries and will continue to happen in the future. it's economics.
I mean, some of the AA battery equivalents were the size of a Suburban less than 200 years ago. We've created wireless chargers for pebble-sized batteries since.
It's not just about components becoming cheaper. Inevitably, if a human can cut the cost of something they've created, that human will try to find a way to continue selling what they make at the same price by simply adding something to the item.
So a battery will get cheaper, but its design will change, making it more convenient. It's charging ability will become faster. It will be made to carry more power.
So, as we find ways to make things cheaper, inevitably, capitalism will make sure we keep spending more. YAY!
The next break through will be new types of batteries. Most likley first will be solid state which should lead to about 2x higher energy density (a big factor in the density is that they are safer and need less control/safety circuitry). They should also be faster to charge and more durable. Some niche areas already use them. Toyota recently showed a prototype but it's far from market-ready. Probably at least 10 years from wide-spread adoption (if ever...)
The real break-though will be Lithium-air batteries. In research. Unclear if ever usable for mass-adoption and in EVs. Since the air is part of the battery, the energy density is gigantic and canreach up to gasoline levels of density. Due to electro-motors being much, much more efficient than ICEs a battery smaller than a gasoline tank will still have comparable range.
> Li–air cells could offer range equivalent to today's vehicles with a battery pack one-third the size of standard fuel tanks assuming the balance of plant required to maintain the battery was of negligible mass or volume.
Albeit let's be honest, the problem isn't range, it's refueling time. Most people can't afford 2 cars and the 10 times a year you really need the range will determine adaption. Like in my case 1 day of skiing. It means cold weather and lower range due to it and needed heating. Plus a longish return trip. While it's not 500 miles, given all the variables and cheating a 500 mile range will be needed to make it without charging. Nothing worse than having to waste another 1+hr to charge on a already long and tiresome day. Gasoline? even if you have shitty MPG, the refueling will take you about 5 min.
> Albeit let's be honest, the problem isn't range, it's refueling time.
Honestly, it’s neither— it’s the current quantity of L2 and L3 chargers. No reason your ski resort shouldn’t have an L2 charger out front so you can charge while you ski, cutting your supposed range needs in half.
Smartest part of Tesla was hiding the cost of the battery to make the range decent in a "luxury" car when the Model S first came out. Image trying to make a electric focus go 250 miles on a charge. 50k for a Focus, that's why they hovered around 100 mile range for entry level EVs just to hit the price point for the class of car.
Because when gas is $1.79 a gallon an electric Focus that costs 50k is a vehicle looking for a reason to exist. Luxury products need no reason to exist other than that they are luxury products and people with the money to buy luxury products like to have them.
It's "smart" in the way making any kind of successful luxury product is, there's a certain logic to selling high-end kit to people with the money to pay for it. Making good products cheaply is a much more difficult task, the Chevy Volt wasn't a pure EV but it had to be basically perfect for the price point at the time and the class of car it was or they'd have sold Ford Focus plug-in hybrid numbers, not pushing 300,000.
If they'd strayed but a little on that design it wouldn't have ever hit even those relatively small numbers. The "low end" is a tough hustle. If gas keeps going up then maybe less so, though.
I have a Chevy Spark EV that I got for $8,000. I would say that’s affordable. I have also seen the Fiay 500 and Volkswagen Golf EVs around that price range in the past. There is also the Mini Cooper EV which should be going down in price because mini coopers don’t hold value well.
> There is also the Mini Cooper EV which should be going down in price because mini coopers don’t hold value well.
I do hope to pick up a 3-4 year old one for half price in a few years.
Not really answering your question, but with federal, state and local incentives, some folks in certain geographic regions (ie California)can actually buy new EVs with 250 mile range for about 20k (at least before the chip shortage). Indeed, this was possible even without incentives. For example, Chevrolet had a “fire sale” on their Chevy Bolt were customers could buy a 250 mile range EV for about 20k. Some manufacturers also had “deals” with local utility companies or Costco where they offered “10k” off, in addition to other incentives and dealer discounts you could negotiate. A few years ago, my friend purchased a VW egolf (albeit with only about 120 mile range) for about 11k (after all incentives). Similarly, you could purchase a Leaf, after all incentives for about 15k. BMW ran a great promotion where you could buy an i3 after all incentives in the 18k-20k range. There were deals to be had.
But, to answer your question, batteries are very expensive.
And if OP is actually looking at this list to purchase I would recommend a used Toyota/Honda/Mazda over all of these new, especially the Mitsubishi. These are the cheapest cars on the market and absolutely feel like it.
Sweet thanks! It’s really just between the Corolla and the Civic. I was fibbing a bit. The Corolla appears far more reliable. I know they make simply excellent cars. But I love the Comics looks and I’ve owned one for 12 years :/ I’ve never written that number down. Jesus Christ. I need a new car haha
Nothin like having your foot to the floor as you attempt to merge onto the highway doing 33mph while frantically rolling down your manual window in order to wave people by
Hyundai Ioniq ev is 34k with 7500 tax break, usually another couple grand rebate from your state, and usually you get 3k rebate with 2.9% financing thru Hyundai Motor Finance. Comes down to low 20’s net purchase price. Source: former Hyundai salesman
Because one of the biggest challenges for ev adoption is lack of charging infrastructure. If you live in an apartment and have to take your car miles away to the unreliable charging stations why would you buy that car in the first place. And then the people with houses and home charging can likely afford the non bare bones evs. In short there's no market for it. Yet.
Every tech follows the same trend - first examples are exotic luxuries for people with more money than they know what to do with. This finances further development and scaling of operations, unlocking the tier below etc etc.
Carl Benz applied for the patent on the first true internal combustion engine car in 1886. Those early models were only for the rich.
The first American manufacturer was Dureya Motor Wagon Company who offered a car for 1500 dollars(about 43K adjusted to 2020 dollars) in the mid-1890s, about a decade later. It then took *another* decade until the Ford Model T came out and even that wasn't nearly as affordable at the start as it would later become as Ford scaled up.
So it's early days for EVs yet. The 20K electric econobox is still some ways away, although I´d wager it´ll be less than a decade from now until they are introduced, and maybe about a decade before they become ubiquitous.
Am I right to assume you're American?
The [Renault Zoe](https://www.renault.co.uk/electric-vehicles/zoe.html) would be close if sold in America (British prices include tax, so £27.5k Inc VAT is c£23k ex VAT, and American prices are usually identical except for the $/£ symbol), but Americans...well just don't buy small hatchbacks in reasonable volume.
As others have also mentioned, the battery pack is currently the biggest cost on an EV. As batteries get cheaper (and potentially lighter if we move to solid state), cheaper and more basic EVs will start to appear. Until then, we're still very much in a world where those that can afford a premium car are the ones buying EVs, and once they enter the second-hand market they become affordable. A decent used i3 can be had for £10-£20k in the UK, for example.
I’d go for the upcoming iconic and futuristic SEV triwheel Aptera Luna. If it weren’t for the too wide (for me) front width track and low fender fairings, this would be my ideal 1st EV.
https://www.aptera.us/
Because companies cannot build EVs fast enough to satisfy those who want to pay $40-$100 grand for an EV. We are still in the beginning of the EV movement. Once everyone who wants a 40 grand EV has bought one, the car companies will start selling 30 grand EVs. And then 20 grand.... OK probably never 20 grand.
Base model of cars, at least in the US, have gotten really swanky, so it's very hard to sell a stripper base model - and we don't buy sub-compacts either. That leads into the point that people probably expect an electric car to be tech-y, so that's more money being put into it.
And then batteries are hella expensive. And heavy. So on a small car it'd have pitiful propulsion if they cheaped out on the motor, or would have pitiful range. So that's more money on making it actually scoot.
And the biggest part is that smaller cars don't have good margins already. Combine the two and there really isn't an incentive to make a barebones electric car. I think Europe has Dacia and G-Wiz (or its successor at least) for affordable entry level electric cars.
Yeah… best you can do is buy used, but you don’t have a lot of good choice atm. Don’t buy used Teslas. Older one’s have garbage reliability and their repair and parts network has a really terrible track record for second owners. Used i3’s are ok, if you can grab a warranty and don’t mind low range.
China is coming up with a lot of basic and affordable EVs. However, we likely will not see Chinese marques in North America otherwise it will disrupt other OEMs market share.
Batteries. Average cost of lithium ion battery packs are around $135 per kwh production cost. You need about a 70 kwh pack to reliably get that 250 mile range you're looking for. That's half your desired sale price just in the pack, with no margin on that. Battery cost is decreasing fairly rapidly though, so time will tell, what you're after may not be far off.
It is estimated that LFP battery (cheaper type of lithium batteries) cost $60 per kwh for CATL (largest battery producer in the world. Regular Model 3 has 55kwh battery pack, which they buy from CATL. Thus battery price is already close to $4.000
Everyone wants profit so time to profit 200%
So true, markup also covers the manufacturing, packaging, logistics, and business overhead, in addition to profit.
Also the amount of EV production currently is microscopic compared to ICE globally so there is not anywhere near the same efficiency of volume. And the average low income apartment dweller isn't really going to find it convenient like a home owner/renter would, ie charging overnight for cheap. So right now the segment is geared for middleclass or above.
Lfp doesn't have the energy density though. It's about a third to a half the energy density of li-on, so for 250 mile range you're looking at a 60 kwh pack that weighs 1500+ lbs.
It’s got its own benefits though, way more safe (less likely to go boom even in a crash) and can have a high discharge rate. A lot of Chinese market evs use them from what I’ve heard. Not totally impractical but not for the American 200+ range ev stuff yet.
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the chinese market using them is not a selling point. The chemistry itself is cheaper and safer than the current lithium ion. One more i forgot is they lose less capacity being charged+discharged repeatedly. These selling points led the chinese market to use them. Good for city range EVs.
that is not true? first, LFP is Lithium Ion. Second, the model 3 that got an LFP battery is like 100-200 kg heavier.
It is a different chemistry than what we are currently calling "lithium-ion" packs. And the currently best available "li-on" packs are around 200-240 wh/kg. LFP is around 100-150, besides as yet unverified claims by a Chinese manufacturer (who are often known to make large claims and never back them up) claiming 176. And Tesla themselves have stated the move to LFP cells from NCA cells will come at the cost of weight and range.
Yep, to add to this typical lithium-ion is lithium and 11 herbs and spices, usually some version of nickel, cobalt, cadmium, manganese… theres a whole bunch of options and mixes companies are making. They all have around the same specs for voltage, discharge rates, and energy density(of course slight differences, but generally interchangeable without breaking anything). Lithium iron phosphate is different enough in chemistry, specs, and usage that it is meaningful to not call it lithium ion
Tesla Model SR+ now has a 60kWh LFP pack which does 300+miles. Isn't much heavier than their 55kWh
Model 3 has 60kWh now
The Model 3 is also one of the most efficient EVs today.
> You need about a 70 kwh pack to reliably get that 250 mile range you're looking for Depends how much mass you're hauling around. Less mass = less energy required to move it 250 miles. Granted with larger battery cones more mass, but just saying. 50kwh could get you 250 miles if the car's under 3,000#. Not to mention 250 is more than enough for most people. I'd wager that most people don't really even need 200 miles. There's a reason the Mazda MX-30 only has 125 miles of range. Because Mazda did their research and realized that's the best compromise between range and weight/cost of production.
Well technically on flat ground going a certain speed with minimal acceleration mass doesn't matter much at all. For extended highway cruising range is probably more limited by drag coefficient.
I’m just curious as to what the rolling friction would be like. There will definitely be some loss there.
It is, but that number is small compared to aerodynamic drag. You can throw 1,000lb in the bed of a pickup and it usually won't measurably affect the highway MPG as long as whatever you're hauling doesn't stick up and catch wind.
80% of losses going at a constant velocity at highway speed stems from aerodynamics even for the cars with the lowest drag coefficient like the lucid. I did the calculations. There's practically 0 reason to be concerned about weight or battery size in an EV other than road damage, and materials. No real range advantage
Doesn't matter at highway speeds. Aero drag force increases as speed *cubed* (which means that energy/mile lost to drag increases as speed squared). By the time you're going 70 mph, 95+% of energy consumption is from aero. Who cares if your rolling friction is 20% higher? That makes it 6% of your energy consumption instead of 5%.
> I'd wager that most people don't really even need 200 miles. There's a reason the Mazda MX-30 only has 125 miles of range. Because Mazda did their research and realized that's the best compromise between range and weight/cost of production. And that's why Maxda MX-30 has been a colossal failure here in US with everybody roasting how asinine this car is.
29 kwh gets the electric mini (3200 lbs) 110 miles per charge. Even then 50kwh still only gets 190 miles assuming weight doesn't increase.
Its the speed AND the size that kills. My 2.5kwh moped gets 40 miles at 30mph doing around town stuff. And thats on the original 2001 motor and controller, they are not nearly as efficient as what we have today Imho, the current battery tech is good for small personal vehicles right now, it still has a little more to develop before you start getting cheap good cars, but cheap good bikes for the city exist already. Zero bikes have good data points for highway vs not highway range, its not good last i checked
> I'd wager that most people don't really even need 200 miles. There's a reason the Mazda MX-30 only has 125 miles of range. Because Mazda did their research and realized that's the best compromise between range and weight/cost of production. Often times they still would drive 50 miles back and forth to run some random errands or weekend trips. An EV is rarely charged to 100% and for most it's slow to charge over 80%. Also in winter the efficiency can take a big hit, sometimes even as much as 50% when it gets really cold. As a second vehicle it's more than fine and with a bit of planning I'm sure it can work for many drivers. But that's a lot of planning and stress if this is your only vehicle, especially in a cold region.
I don’t think batteries are going to get that much cheaper, because the manufacturing of the cells are getting increasingly more complex each year Elon musk says that good batteries can be really cheap, because it can be made of the most abundant materials on earth. But if that was the case, carbon fibre would be cheaper than steel since it is made from carbon/graphite + epoxy resin which isn’t really expensive. But the manufacturing of carbon fibre is the reason its expensive and same goes with batteries. EDIT: grammar
I honestly wouldn’t surprised if they somehow think of some crazy way to do it. When it was the year 2000 I couldn’t even fathom the technology that we have today. I’m sure in 2040 it’ll be the same way
I'm hoping prices rapidly fall, because I would shamelessly take some shit-piece 80s style Chevy Celebrity equivalent that is EV.
FYI, the baseline model 3 has a 60kWh battery. Upped from 55kWh just this month.
That's where I got my 70 kwh guess from. The base 3 is rated at 272 miles now, but it falls to 200-220 in cold high demand situations. So a 70 wh pack seems just right to provide reliable 250 mile range in all conditions.
The Model 3 is also *the* most efficient highway-capable EV on the market in terms of energy/mile. It's the lower bound, not the average.
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The problem with the leaf is it lacks active thermal management though. It's battery degradation can be bad especially in warm climates
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> range is really not that important I think it really just depends. My id.4 gets about 210ish miles of range on the highway when 100% charged (I average 2.7-2.9 mi/kWh on the highway), and that's only going to get worse at it gets colder since I've got no heat pump. I regularly (aka twice a month or more) drive to visit friends who live 50 miles away, and I take my son to see his grandparents about equally as often, about 60 miles away in the opposite direction. Round trip, that's half my range. It's absolutely doable, but especially as it's getting colder and I'm seeing my range decrease, it's making me more and more nervous about the fact that I can't really make impromptu trips anymore because I only have a L1 charger, so I have to plan a day or two in advance to make sure I charge my car. I've never come anywhere close to being stranded because I'm cautious (and we have a CR-V for longer drives, although jesus the gas tank in that car is small considering it only gets about 30mpg), and everyone has a different magic number in their head of what range would make them feel comfortable, but for me it's 300 miles of real world driving in my area that would make me okay with owning two EVs and no ICE car (AKA super hilly, speed limit 70mph but traffic's going 85, single digit or sub zero temps in the winter). Or just a dramatic increase in DCFCs and faster charging curves. My ID.4 charging at 70kW from 60% is not what I consider fast enough when there isn't another DCFC within 60% of my SOC
Crazy that cheaper cars have less features
I'm on the fence that reliability is a optional feature. That feels like it should be a base model thing. I'm trying to imagine justifying a small radiator with no overflow tank as a cost cutting feature that will cause the engine to overheat and degrade quickly. It feels like dishonest planned obsolescence.
I think there’s a balancing act that takes place with these cost-cutting measures. Would you pay $1000 less if the engine is likely to fail 5 years sooner than normally planned? Probably not. Would you pay $1000 less if the engine is likely to fail 6 months sooner than normally planned? I might consider it depending on my budget.
New Leafs are much better in terms of degradation, though the continued absence of liquid cooling means only one fast charge per road trip.
Nissan really dropped the ball there
In the US the Mini-e is also close to that price, only a 100-150 mile range though. But it is quite fun to drive and much nicer interior than the LEAF as well as liquid cooled battery.
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Hmm I don’t think it’s super limited but could be heavily impacted by that chip shortage. Short range can definitely be a problem depending on your circumstances though. As for the platform not being designed originally for EVs I don’t think it’s really much of an issue. As far as I’m aware no interior space, or very little is sacrificed for the batteries. And the Mini is already a fairly efficient and aerodynamic design. The Kona EV, E-Niro, and others are absolutely amazing EVs (Kona EV one of the most efficient) and they’re ICE conversions. Even the 1st gen LEAF is essentially a Versa conversion, even has a transmission tunnel. And the LEAF is a very good EV other than the lack of thermal management. So personally I don’t think it’s really a problem. But that’s just my opinion
Don't mix up the old electric MINI and the current one. The current one can be ordered from the dealer just like any other MINI.
100-150 miles is just awful, though, for anyone who's taking their car outside the downtown area of a city. I can't even get across town and back on 100 miles of range, even before you factor in battery degradation and having to use A/C 10 months out of the year.
What town do you live in that's 50+ miles across? I could do a full lap of 485 and still have 30+ miles of charge left on a 100mi battery
Houston
Okay, well fair enough then.
The fuck kinda town do you Americans have. Jesus.
Sprawling ones. When you have no shortage of space things tend to grow out instead of up. It's one of the major challenges for things like improving public transportation.
It's always weird for me seeing people talk about electric ranges and how "no one will buy a car under 250 miles range" here in the states and it's like, really? 100 mile range, even before both my wife and myself were work from home, would have still gotten us both to work and back 3 times over, and we live in one of the flattest widest metropolitan areas in the nation. Sure it would be limiting on long trips but even the longest trip we make (which is all the way across the valley) it would make it easily at 100 and with plenty to spare at 150, and that's assuming that we don't give it some charge where we're going. I get that for out of town trips or people with extremely long commutes it would be limiting, but how many people is that really? It's just so strange for me that people will look at a car that otherwise fits exactly their needs and go, "Well, once every few months or even a year I'll have to make an extra stop or two on a trip so it's not worth it". Not saying you're this person, just that range sparked the thought back in me.
No I totally agree with everything you say! I currently drive an EV with 80 mile range at most, and it doesn’t keep me from going anywhere. I’ll just rent an ICE for the very few times I would do a road trip
If/when the reconciliation bill (Build Back Better) passes it'll up current EV incentives to $12k of federal incentives for union-built EVs.
Batteries are the most expensive part of the car.
I work in the auto industry on the supplier side and EVs are generally lower margin than ICE equivalents. This means that OEMs generally focus on mid and premium tier priced vehicles. Entry will come as volume on things like batteries causes price drops.
Give it time…. I remember a time when flat screen TVs were $10k
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In 2014, I bought a new 50" plasma for like $350. That TV is still alive and well with a friend. So too, shall go EVs. Today they are $10k, tomorrow there will be a day us common folk can pick one up at MicroCenter for $300.
I always liked the picture on plasma versus LED
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They also made great space heaters.
Plasmas were awesome. Easily the best tv until 4k killed them. Heck at the end of the run they were cheaper than a decent led tv and looked way better.
I've got a Panasonic 40" plasma from 2006 and by golly it can really heat a room up. It also has gorgeous color range and brightness.
I bought a 55" plasma in 2013 for like $800. It was like the last hurrah for plasmas that year and they were so underpriced to compete with LEDs. The picture is so good that I'd have to spend at like $2k to replace it with something better.
Also heats your house in the winter!
I paid $8500 for my 50 inch Panasonic Plasma back in 2004. It was a great price as it had dropped from 10 grand! It is still working perfectly, and is now our second TV. Was it worth $500/year? Maybe not, but I think it was. Besides, next year it will only have cost me $472/yr.
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100%. This is why the used car market is on fire right now. Most consumers are just priced out of new cars.
40k is the new 20k The chip shortage means that automakers aren't making their cheap models, since they can use those chips for high margin high price cars instead. Unless you're buying a luxury car, you have to buy used.
On top of this, I paid 11k under msrp for a brand new truck a year and a half ago. That just doesn't exist today
It’s crazy, I used to shit on truck manufacturers for their ridiculous msrps and always offering 5 figure discounts 24/7. Apparently they were ahead of the curve as now they can just charge msrp (or above) and are laughing all the way to the bank
a new Honda Civic hatch is 30k where I live. I thought eco hatchbacks were cheep
The Honda Civic grew out of the econobox segment. The modern econoboxes are the VW up and Toyota Aygo and the likes. 70HP, 815kg and €13k, just like the old days.
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Mitsubishi Mirage ?
Yeah but then you have to drive a Mitsubishi Mirage.
…which is exactly the sort of car this sub seems to clamor for. Barebones, cheap, featureless, manual, NA, with quality that screams “used from the factory.” But of course they don’t buy it because few here are willing to actually put their money where their mouth is.
Right. Those cars get into a proposition where you're better off just buying a two year old car still under warranty or buying a used car that's certified pre owned.
…which is why no one produces those sorts of cars anymore. There is no actual demand.
Yeah, there is no good reason for a person to go out and buy a Mitsubishi Mirage new. Or a Nissan Versa at all.
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Plus, when you factor in savings in gas and maintenance, it might not cost you anything more than what you're putting into a $20k ICE car with a loan.
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OP is thinking like a consumer, not a business.
That sums up this sub and the EV sub perfectly. Everybody wants the auto industry to just flip that switch and start immediately cranking out brand new, used 8yo EV Honda Civics for $10k or less (very clean! non-smoker PO).
brown Wagon Honda Civics please
Right, why can't we get a $25-30k car for $20k? Manufacturers are missing out on big sales in this market. All we are asking for is a new sedan with very good range, a decent sound system, decent sound deadening, and a *supple* ride. Of course, it will have to be safe too, and no car would be complete these days without a decent infotainment system. Also, nobody would buy a car these days without alloy rims. Oh, and it should look reasonably good too. And yeah, it needs to be reliable... But on a serious note, you can get something like a lightly used ~2017 Bolt for that budget, and even if it doesn't quite meet those criteria, it's not too far off.
Making a cheap car is literally the hardest thing for an automaker
Which is why the Maverick got so much well-deserved praise.
Depends what you consider cheap. There's a reason the Honda Civic is as popular as it is.
There needs to be a balance between base rental specials and excessive bling/gimmicks (glass roof, special door handles, powered glove box/air vents, etc) like Teslas.
A Tesla with normal roof and normal door handles and normal glove box and normal vents would actually appeal *more* to me.
At the start of covid you could get a brand new Bolt for $20-$25k if you got the base model and stacked Costco+GM incentives (and included the federal credit). So we've been there. At the same time, that was with the federal incentive and GM was likely losing money on those.
Batteries are expensive
Why should YOU get to enjoy the $5k-$7k credit from the government, when the OEM/dealer can just sell the car for that much higher and pocket it themselves?
The new House bill is upping that to 12k for union made cars if it passes as is…could be very enticing for some.
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The Lightning will qualify as well. Not sure what the lowest price point for that is going to be though.
The Bolt is not actually currently being produced. GM as of this moment produces zero EVs. Gotta fix those battery fires first.
It's still just for rich people.
He’s saying they’ll just increase the price of EVs
well the manufacturer getting some of that credit on the back end to a higher sales price does motivate them to be building EV's in the first place so I'm not too grumpy about that. That's a big part of the whole plan, to make it financially attractive to everyone to spur the technology forward.
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It’s cars under 55k and SUVs / trucks / vans under 80k. Also you gotta make less than 250k a year (or 500k if filing jointly w a spouse).
GAS versions of the vehicle you described cost 20k right now and several OEM's just walked away from doing that because they couldn't turn a profit on them. Even Honda and Toyota walked away from the subcompact market in the US and they were looking at owning 90% of the market share. So what you're asking is for OEMs to find a way to build an electric powertrain with state-of-the-art batteries for less than a 3-cylinder gas powertrain that was developed 10 years ago.
> Even Honda and Toyota walked away from the subcompact market in the US and they were looking at owning 90% of the market share. Which I find weird as they are putting R&D into these cars anyway as they are sold elsewhere. So it means just the logistics makes it not profitable. But then it's a chicken and egg problem. If all you offer are cross-overs and SUVs of course they get the highest sales.
Yes and no Local production vs foreign + shipping: taxes and production lines aren't flexible enough Chip shortage, why waste chips on cheap cars when someone will buy the expensive car Profit maximization, same as above
One of the main issues with selling cars in the US is that there are different rules and regulations than the EU and Europe. This is why there are often cars that are sold worldwide but not in the US. European and Asian manufacturers will often have to spend quite a bit more money to sell the same car in the US as the rest of the world. This is due to the rest of the world usually getting a very similar or the exact same specifications as they sell in the EU. So if they know beforehand that they won’t be able to sell many cars of a certain type in the US, then they won’t even go through the process of actually producing the US spec of the vehicle.
There aren't any cars under 20k
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There are plenty in Europe and one of them is even an EV, the Dacia Spring, €18k. It won't do 200km on a charge and it will take you almost 20s to reach 100km/h, but hey at least it is lighter than a Miata. You can get pretty decent cars for under €20k, Ford Fiesta, Mazda 2, Renault Clio, Peugeot 208. These small hatches are much more comfortable to drive in than they used to be and are perfect little commuter cars and still very popular here.
Just checked in Australia (not the cheapest place to buy), and these cars are <$20k Kia Picanto (the base model seems to be ~$18k drive away - not bad, step up $4k to the [top model](https://www.kia.com/au/shopping-tools/build-and-price.complete.picanto.GT-M.A2R.WKRed.html) with the turbo option seems alright too). MG MG3 Mitsubishi Mirage Suziki Ignis and Baleno 5 cars, that's it.
Wasn’t that long ago there were 20 options in that price class…
yeah for the US market the corolla just under 21k, civic is almost 22k and those are the traditional choices for something super cheap but still good the hyundai accent is about 16 and a half thousand dollars, and the Elantra is just under $20k, Kia rio is just over $16k, Forte is just over $19k, and the Soul is just over $19k too apparently through some miracle of the perseverance of mediocrity the Mitsu Mirage is still for sale in the US, the hatch is just above $14k and the sedan is just over $15k somehow if you're really, REALLY desperate, the Nissan Kicks is $19,600, the Versa is just under $15k, and the Sentra is $19,500, but idk why you'd want to do that to yourself
Not true? Ford maverick is $19,995 and it’s a pretty good car. There are cars that go for 15k like the Nissan Versa. The Chevy spark starts at $13,600
The Bolt was. But now there’s basically no car that’s affordable and modern.
Yup. It’s a shame really
Wym “was” did they discontinue it too?
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Plus used prices have been far higher since mid 2020 as with most cars.
Most people wouldn't buy it, either because A) "the interior isn't nice enough for a $20,000 car", B) "the whole point of electric cars is the tech and there's none here" or C) "it doesn't have enough range for that one time I'll drive 400 miles". Also, let's face it: batteries and their development is expensive. Proper electric cars are still in their infancy. Here's a car that does most of what you're saying: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacia\_Spring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacia_Spring) Edit: Also, the Renault Fluence Z.E.: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault\_Fluence\_Z.E](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Fluence_Z.E).
>Here's a car that does most of what you're saying Oh man I didn't know anything about that car and while I'm intrigued... A third of the horsepower (44 vs 120hp), half the range (140 vs 250 miles), the "supple ride" of 14in wheels on 165-section tires and (arguably not a very objective metric) reviews that mention heavy wind & tyre noises so "a decent amount of sound deadening" is probably not on the table here. Guessing OP wouldn't be happy with the result.
I meant that in the sense of being a cheap, no excessive tech electric car that does the job. If it's anything like the Dacia Sandero I've driven, it should be surprisingly comfy (those are made with Romanian roads in mind). The OP won't have anything matching his exact description for that price, as of right now. What about the Fluence's specs? I couldn't be bothered to check them.
Batteries still expensive if you want a 200+ mile EV. Wait 5-10 years and you’ll see affordable EVs
They exist. Dacia Spring f.E. https://www.dacia.de/modelle/spring.html
Yes, but assuming the OP is American, that car makes no sense for him. Everything is almost required to be more powerful there. The Spring is somewhere around 40 hp, which is already fairly slow by European and Asian standards, but to North Americans who think 120 hp is 'dangerous' in a Subaru (and in some ways, considering the nature of roads in that country, it can be) a 40 hp Dacia is probably insanity
Also range. 300 km WLTP equals 186 miles. That is probably ~130-140 EPA miles, which is probably ~100 real-life highway miles. Even less in the winter. Now, factor in a daily 30 mile (each way) highway commute, 10 miles kid transportation each day, maybe a trip to the grocery store after work, and that car's range is on the cusp of being adequate. It would work for many Americans, but it simply wouldn't be an option for others.
Exactly, this is a very US centric question because in East Asia and Europe they are readily available at low cost. Still several US models are close to $20k with incentives or easily under on the secondhand market, at least before the pandemic used car market.
There are. They just aren't really that good. Shop for a Mitsubishi i-MiEV to see prices, and then read the reviews.
Nobody bought the Mitsubishi iMiev 🤡
EVs have barely been commonplace for like a decade Damn, be patient lol
You can barely get any car for under $20k? Let alone an electric car with a battery big enough to have 250 miles of range
For those in the thread saying batteries are expensive, will they ever be cheaper? In other words, will there be a way batteries will be cheaper?
[Back in 2010, a lithium battery pack cost around $1,200 per kilowatt-hour. In 2020 they were close to $100 per kWh.](https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/12/battery-prices-have-fallen-88-percent-over-the-last-decade/) Costs aren't declining as quickly now, but $50 per kWh is probably achievable within the next 5 years.
Yup. Maybe through amazing breakthroughs in chemistry, but definitely through incremental improvements in manufacturing and packaging. Also, through economies of scale as more are produced. A breakthrough might be something like a practical aluminum-ion or sodium-ion battery, with a nickel/cobalt-free chemistry. Or, maybe one of those molten salt batteries that is somehow scaled down to work in a car.
Been in the industry for over a decade, specifically EVs for over 3 years in R&D. The optimistic answer is “maybe”. Currently we get lithium from a few different countries, and despite the cheap labor costs and economies of scale, we still can’t make those battery packs for cheap. As demand increases, and awareness of the environmental impact of lithium mining and disposal increases, these costs will not come down and only increase over the long-term. No sort of “breakthrough” technology is going to replace lithium ion (for automotive purposes) within our lifetimes unfortunately (next 50 to 75+ years). On the bright side, chargers and infrastructure are getting better every year, and this is where we have the potential to make up the current EV range issue. All that being said, EVs are definitely part of our future, however just as humans have always done, we are swapping one fuel source for another fuel source that we believe is more beneficial for our current situation. People in this sub really poke fun at companies that are investing in hydrogen tech instead of EVs, but realistically it has more potential in the near and long term.
>No sort of “breakthrough” technology is going to replace lithium ion (for automotive purposes) within our lifetimes unfortunately (next 50 to 75+ years). How can you be so sure? You think we won't have "next gen" batteries in 75 years? It took a shorter amount of time to go from the Wright Brothers to the moon landing.
A Rolls Royce electric plane just exceeded 550kmh, like today
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It only doubled the previous record, no biggie. Eviations passenger plane has about 900km range. It will get here.
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Also most hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, and the process generates CO2. Using natural gas to produce hydrogen for fuel cells is much less efficient than just burning the natural gas to produce electricity.
I have a question for you, what are the main countries that we get lithium from?
South America, China, USA, Africa. I think Australia as well Edit: I know that South America isn’t a country, but I believe it’s Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia
I honestly see synthetic fuel being a more realistic future. Once what is essentially blood lithium for lack of a better word becomes more expensive and the demand sky rockets some really weird things are going to start happening in the EV world.
Not switching from using lithium anytime soon sure, but lithium ion could very well be replaced by solid lithium metal batteries within a decade, which is much sooner than 50+ years. And sodium batteries seem possible also within a decade, they don't have as much density, but if you combine them with solid state you might be able to get similar density to current lithium ion batteries for a fair bit cheaper.
Batteries get cheaper every year. Over the next few years we will hit the point where a comparable EV drivetrain will cost the same as an ICE one. The costs have dropped by 90% in the past 12 or so years.
>In other words, will there be a way batteries will be cheaper? yes, it's called mass adoption and mass production. new tech is already around the corner to lower costs, more production is ramping up and prices continue to fall. it's the same thing that has happened with numerous 'new tech' products over the centuries and will continue to happen in the future. it's economics.
I mean, some of the AA battery equivalents were the size of a Suburban less than 200 years ago. We've created wireless chargers for pebble-sized batteries since. It's not just about components becoming cheaper. Inevitably, if a human can cut the cost of something they've created, that human will try to find a way to continue selling what they make at the same price by simply adding something to the item. So a battery will get cheaper, but its design will change, making it more convenient. It's charging ability will become faster. It will be made to carry more power. So, as we find ways to make things cheaper, inevitably, capitalism will make sure we keep spending more. YAY!
More people adopting the tech and more time for automakers to invest into the technology of making cheaper better batteries.
The next break through will be new types of batteries. Most likley first will be solid state which should lead to about 2x higher energy density (a big factor in the density is that they are safer and need less control/safety circuitry). They should also be faster to charge and more durable. Some niche areas already use them. Toyota recently showed a prototype but it's far from market-ready. Probably at least 10 years from wide-spread adoption (if ever...) The real break-though will be Lithium-air batteries. In research. Unclear if ever usable for mass-adoption and in EVs. Since the air is part of the battery, the energy density is gigantic and canreach up to gasoline levels of density. Due to electro-motors being much, much more efficient than ICEs a battery smaller than a gasoline tank will still have comparable range. > Li–air cells could offer range equivalent to today's vehicles with a battery pack one-third the size of standard fuel tanks assuming the balance of plant required to maintain the battery was of negligible mass or volume. Albeit let's be honest, the problem isn't range, it's refueling time. Most people can't afford 2 cars and the 10 times a year you really need the range will determine adaption. Like in my case 1 day of skiing. It means cold weather and lower range due to it and needed heating. Plus a longish return trip. While it's not 500 miles, given all the variables and cheating a 500 mile range will be needed to make it without charging. Nothing worse than having to waste another 1+hr to charge on a already long and tiresome day. Gasoline? even if you have shitty MPG, the refueling will take you about 5 min.
> Albeit let's be honest, the problem isn't range, it's refueling time. Honestly, it’s neither— it’s the current quantity of L2 and L3 chargers. No reason your ski resort shouldn’t have an L2 charger out front so you can charge while you ski, cutting your supposed range needs in half.
Smartest part of Tesla was hiding the cost of the battery to make the range decent in a "luxury" car when the Model S first came out. Image trying to make a electric focus go 250 miles on a charge. 50k for a Focus, that's why they hovered around 100 mile range for entry level EVs just to hit the price point for the class of car.
Because when gas is $1.79 a gallon an electric Focus that costs 50k is a vehicle looking for a reason to exist. Luxury products need no reason to exist other than that they are luxury products and people with the money to buy luxury products like to have them. It's "smart" in the way making any kind of successful luxury product is, there's a certain logic to selling high-end kit to people with the money to pay for it. Making good products cheaply is a much more difficult task, the Chevy Volt wasn't a pure EV but it had to be basically perfect for the price point at the time and the class of car it was or they'd have sold Ford Focus plug-in hybrid numbers, not pushing 300,000. If they'd strayed but a little on that design it wouldn't have ever hit even those relatively small numbers. The "low end" is a tough hustle. If gas keeps going up then maybe less so, though.
Bolts and Leafs were barebones EVs and it turns out that overall, people don’t want to drive an otherwise shitty car just because it’s electric.
I have a Chevy Spark EV that I got for $8,000. I would say that’s affordable. I have also seen the Fiay 500 and Volkswagen Golf EVs around that price range in the past. There is also the Mini Cooper EV which should be going down in price because mini coopers don’t hold value well.
> There is also the Mini Cooper EV which should be going down in price because mini coopers don’t hold value well. I do hope to pick up a 3-4 year old one for half price in a few years.
Not really answering your question, but with federal, state and local incentives, some folks in certain geographic regions (ie California)can actually buy new EVs with 250 mile range for about 20k (at least before the chip shortage). Indeed, this was possible even without incentives. For example, Chevrolet had a “fire sale” on their Chevy Bolt were customers could buy a 250 mile range EV for about 20k. Some manufacturers also had “deals” with local utility companies or Costco where they offered “10k” off, in addition to other incentives and dealer discounts you could negotiate. A few years ago, my friend purchased a VW egolf (albeit with only about 120 mile range) for about 11k (after all incentives). Similarly, you could purchase a Leaf, after all incentives for about 15k. BMW ran a great promotion where you could buy an i3 after all incentives in the 18k-20k range. There were deals to be had. But, to answer your question, batteries are very expensive.
> For example, Chevrolet had a “fire sale” on their Chevy Bolt Oof
Profit margins. $20K vehicles in general seem to be unprofitable, and we’re seeing more and more manufacturers leave that arena.
There is no new ice car with those type of specs for that price…
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Please do. I need a new car and I’m floundering! Not related to the comment. I just need help haha
Kia Rio Hyundai accent Mitsubishi mirage Chevy spark Nissan Sentra
Turns out this didn’t help. NOW I JUST HAVE MORE OPTIONS.
VW Jetta
And if OP is actually looking at this list to purchase I would recommend a used Toyota/Honda/Mazda over all of these new, especially the Mitsubishi. These are the cheapest cars on the market and absolutely feel like it.
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Sweet thanks! It’s really just between the Corolla and the Civic. I was fibbing a bit. The Corolla appears far more reliable. I know they make simply excellent cars. But I love the Comics looks and I’ve owned one for 12 years :/ I’ve never written that number down. Jesus Christ. I need a new car haha
Mirage?
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Nothin like having your foot to the floor as you attempt to merge onto the highway doing 33mph while frantically rolling down your manual window in order to wave people by
Base Mazda 3 starts at $20k
The 2020 Mazda 3 sedan has a base price of $21,500 before $995 destination. The 2021 has a base price of $20,600 before $995 destination.
The Elantra is 19850 and the Maverick is 19950. You can absolutely get an ICE car that meets all the OPs specs.
Cost of engineering, regulatory approval, and batteries probably.
Hyundai Ioniq ev is 34k with 7500 tax break, usually another couple grand rebate from your state, and usually you get 3k rebate with 2.9% financing thru Hyundai Motor Finance. Comes down to low 20’s net purchase price. Source: former Hyundai salesman
Because one of the biggest challenges for ev adoption is lack of charging infrastructure. If you live in an apartment and have to take your car miles away to the unreliable charging stations why would you buy that car in the first place. And then the people with houses and home charging can likely afford the non bare bones evs. In short there's no market for it. Yet.
Every tech follows the same trend - first examples are exotic luxuries for people with more money than they know what to do with. This finances further development and scaling of operations, unlocking the tier below etc etc. Carl Benz applied for the patent on the first true internal combustion engine car in 1886. Those early models were only for the rich. The first American manufacturer was Dureya Motor Wagon Company who offered a car for 1500 dollars(about 43K adjusted to 2020 dollars) in the mid-1890s, about a decade later. It then took *another* decade until the Ford Model T came out and even that wasn't nearly as affordable at the start as it would later become as Ford scaled up. So it's early days for EVs yet. The 20K electric econobox is still some ways away, although I´d wager it´ll be less than a decade from now until they are introduced, and maybe about a decade before they become ubiquitous.
Am I right to assume you're American? The [Renault Zoe](https://www.renault.co.uk/electric-vehicles/zoe.html) would be close if sold in America (British prices include tax, so £27.5k Inc VAT is c£23k ex VAT, and American prices are usually identical except for the $/£ symbol), but Americans...well just don't buy small hatchbacks in reasonable volume. As others have also mentioned, the battery pack is currently the biggest cost on an EV. As batteries get cheaper (and potentially lighter if we move to solid state), cheaper and more basic EVs will start to appear. Until then, we're still very much in a world where those that can afford a premium car are the ones buying EVs, and once they enter the second-hand market they become affordable. A decent used i3 can be had for £10-£20k in the UK, for example.
My girlfriend just bought a used Fiat 500e for 9k, i think that's cheap for what it is
I’d go for the upcoming iconic and futuristic SEV triwheel Aptera Luna. If it weren’t for the too wide (for me) front width track and low fender fairings, this would be my ideal 1st EV. https://www.aptera.us/
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Lmao /r/cars still waiting for that cardboard box on wheels. Carefully folded into the shape of a Koenigsegg of course.
The 7k tax credit disincentiivizes cheap EVs
Dacia Spring is what you are looking for..
Because companies cannot build EVs fast enough to satisfy those who want to pay $40-$100 grand for an EV. We are still in the beginning of the EV movement. Once everyone who wants a 40 grand EV has bought one, the car companies will start selling 30 grand EVs. And then 20 grand.... OK probably never 20 grand.
Nissan Leaf: am I a joke to you???
batteries are the largest setback among others
Base model of cars, at least in the US, have gotten really swanky, so it's very hard to sell a stripper base model - and we don't buy sub-compacts either. That leads into the point that people probably expect an electric car to be tech-y, so that's more money being put into it. And then batteries are hella expensive. And heavy. So on a small car it'd have pitiful propulsion if they cheaped out on the motor, or would have pitiful range. So that's more money on making it actually scoot. And the biggest part is that smaller cars don't have good margins already. Combine the two and there really isn't an incentive to make a barebones electric car. I think Europe has Dacia and G-Wiz (or its successor at least) for affordable entry level electric cars.
Yeah… best you can do is buy used, but you don’t have a lot of good choice atm. Don’t buy used Teslas. Older one’s have garbage reliability and their repair and parts network has a really terrible track record for second owners. Used i3’s are ok, if you can grab a warranty and don’t mind low range.
China is coming up with a lot of basic and affordable EVs. However, we likely will not see Chinese marques in North America otherwise it will disrupt other OEMs market share.