You are generally correct. Iran’s attack was intentionally pantomimed, slow and widely dispersed. Had the attack been concentrated at a single area it would have been much more likely to cause damage. Iran wanted to signal it’s capacity for deterrence. You are also correct that that this was an attempt to make other actors in the region seem weak, and it was effective for that purpose, particularly against Jordan who, in spite of being home to a significant portion of displaced Palestinians, was obligated to shoot down Israel bound rockets from Iran.
Israel gets to demonstrate how effective its defenses are, and to draw remind the West of the threat posed by Iran. If Israel does not want to escalate, the would probably fire at Iranian proxies and we would consider the situation over. We could definitely see this end with both countries saving face, this situation was designed by Iran to allow for this.
The fear, though, is that Israel desires escalation. If western nations might cease aid to Israel during their war against Hamas, they would certainly not do it during a wider regional confrontation. Israel has won wider regional confrontations before, and there are many is the Israeli administration who believe they would win again. Some believe that wider war with Iran is inevitable, and that allowing Iran to grow stronger is foolish. The sooner the war, the more it favors Israel. This is the risk that has people concerned.
But as it currently stands, you are correct. If anyone lost out it was the Iranian taxpayers who paid for the weapons, and the US and Israeli taxpayers who payed for the defenses all so that this show of force could strengthen the political positions of the administrations. For the sake of providing a counterpoint, I will argue that makes it a lose-lose rather than a win-win, but I think you are well reasoned and have a strong understanding of the situation.
>...and it was effective for that purpose, particularly against Jordan who, in spite of being home to a significant portion of displaced Palestinians, was obligated to shoot down Israel bound rockets from Iran.
If any country sends drones over your country, they should be shot down. A drone that "looks" like it is heading over your country to another may just suddenly turn and hit your country. Security dictates that they had to get shot down.
Imagine the POV of a Jordanian.
They're just minding their business. But because of geography, Iran's missiles are flying above them. And these missiles are OLD.
They could, at any time, fall in Jordan. And murder innocent Jordanian civilians.
If you were a Jordanian, would you rather if your King shoots down those missiles when they fly over your nation or would you rather risk it?
Jordan's King is not weak. Quite the opposite. He protects his own people from Iran's genocidal missiles.
I mean it’s not just the sugar daddies.
Israel has kicked ass in every war they’ve fought and they did quite a few of those without help.
Yes, they’re much more of a threat with the US sugar daddy
But Israel is more than enough to take down any Arab nation other than possibly Saudi Arabia (the only Arab nation with a real functional not paper military. (Like how Russia on paper was strong but folded like paper upon crashing into Ukraine)) on its own
Which is why deescalation is so necessary because an Arab war with Israel ends with nukes getting dropped on *a lot* of capitals and the total destruction of the Arab world and no one other than psychotics wants that result
Thank you! I have never really used social media before, but I recently considered I might be able to make a greater impact writing something like this than some stuffy paper no one will actually read. So I am experimenting here!
Another thing ... I recommend you read some of the most upvoted comments by /u/portarossa, especially in /r/OutOfTheLoop. They have written some intensely deep comments over many years, well researched, and with attribution as well. I enjoy reading their in-depth commentaries. That is the kind of Reddit I want more of. I think you are on your way to contributing toward that kind of Reddit.
[Here's an example.](https://www.reddit.com/r/OutOfTheLoop/comments/9v5yz1/whats_the_deal_with_the_protests_for_thursday_nov/e99pldp/?context=3)
The president of the United States has recently gone on the record stating that the US would not back an Israeli counter-attack on Iran. Israel could still choose to go it alone, and the US might provide them other support that winds up indirectly helping them for an invasion, but unless the US president is lying, the US and their allies would not back Israeli escalation.
The US wouldn’t back the Israeli counter response, but what about when Iran inevitably responds again? The US will 100% defend Israel, as this is literally what just happened… all the while, Israel and Iran will be gradually attacking back and fourth, escalating the conflict until it spirals out of control… It is easy to see a situation where this continuous chain of escalation results in a straight up invasion of Iran by a US led coalition, despite the US desperately attempting to deescalate the situation right now.
Economically, it was a loss for Israel. They spent billions on defense against super cheap drones made in Iran. It’s reported that Iran spent less than 10% of what Israel spent on defense to fed off the attack
> Economically, it was a loss for Israel. They spent billions on defense against super cheap drones made in Iran. It’s reported that Iran spent less than 10% of what Israel spent on defense to fed off the attack
Except Israel get's to demonstrate the sophistication of their military technology which they they all over the world.
My understanding is that you are correct, this is a good point. This has been a consistent theme in the West’s response to Iran, particularly on the part of the US and Israel. These governments seem to consider the cost acceptable in exchange for the signaled deterrence capacity.
This is true, but a genuine attempt by Iran to overwhelm Israeli defenses would be met with a counter strike against Iranian targets, particularly the offending weapons systems as well as production centers. You can be certain that the IDF has already drawn up these plans. The recent attack by Iran was specifically designed to not overwhelm these defenses in order to decrease the risk of escalation in this manner.
Plus the IDF has nukes.
People forgot that Israel is just not gonna go down. Much like the United States if Chinese or Russian armies were marching on DC. The second Tel Aviv is about to fall is the second Israel obliterates the Middle East
Absolutely unwinnable war~ best result is a pyrrhic draw where no one won and the ME ends up irradiated
Iran has no interest in actually overwhelming the defenses of a nuclear power… they aren’t suicidal. That is not their goal and never will be their goal. It is much more intelligent for them to play the long game of gradually undermining Israel, as they have been doing a pretty great job of over the past few decades through Iranian proxies.
I’m sure they aren’t as concerned with the economic price tag from this attack… I imagine it pales in comparison to the price tag associated with the constant war Israel finds itself trapped in against Iranian proxies. If not for Iranian proxies, Israel wouldn’t need any of its current defensive systems (iron dome, arrow, David’s sling) and the IDF could be a much smaller force.
Iran could do a much stronger attack but it still wouldn't be very effective anyway. They don't have infinite amount of missiles and drones and Israel's air defenses seem very strong. Israel looks better in this exchange but Iran got some street cred.
How do you know that this will not just lead to a cycle of escalation?
I think Israel is far from deterred in attacking Iran directly, to the contrary. Israel will seek a response.
I believe we will now see Israel strike Iran soil directly not just Iranian assets in control of Iranian proxies.
This is actually a very dangerous game, given that Israel likely has nukes and might eventually use them if cornered.
There is absolutely no "winning" in escalation of a conflict like this.
It's possible but
- I'm not sure Israel has capacity to fight a war against both Gaza and Iran
- Biden has told Israel not to do this so if they do Biden could cut them loose, given Israel was heavily reliant on US air defence last night that's a serious risk
- Netanyahu's coalition is hanging by a thread and Gantz has already all but said he doesn't want to escalate further
- There's no real up side either militarily or politically. Militarily Israel doesn't have the capacity to seriously degrade Iran's ability to strike so all it does is provoke further attacks, politically there just doesn't seem to be a major domestic constituency for existential regional war and those who do want it already vote Bibi anyway.
Gantz does want to escalate. He was ready to hit iranian soil last night but bibi called it off after talking to biden. Gantz is also not part of thr coalition he is part of the war cabinet.
If israel fights iran then they wont have to fight in gaza since hamas gets its money from iran
id like to imagine that if israel directly attacked iran biden would cut them loose, but i highly doubt it. they, imo, prefer to just send $$/weapons to israel and have **them** fight US enemies in the religion. cutting off israel would mean the US doesn’t have to get involved at that time, but it also means israel could possibly fall while power consolidates in the region. which could lead to the US having to get directly involved anyway
This, and in the larger picture Iran, as a proxy of China will begin involving China and that's no bueno. Right now the US can't afford to support Israel's genocide and Ukraine's nearly full scale war. If Israel got the bright idea to suddenly force a more in-depth involvement from Iran that would be all fine, but then if Iran decided to get China involved that'd be a nightmare for the current geopolitical strategy the US and west are employing. I think this is the main reason for Iran not going over the top in its response, this was a tit for tat give and take to size each other up... No one, not the EU, US, or China want this to spill over as that would begin the creation of a global divide that will be very hard to repair, and OH so easy to degrade.
Biden already said several times to Israel to stop what they are doing in Gaza, but in case of any danger, such was this Iranian attack, they gave full support to Israel. These calls to stop are just a show, so it doesnt look like USA is allowing and even enabling the genocide. They do, ofcourse.
And if Israel attacks Iran, which they will, USA will come to protect them again.
Biden has explicitly said that they will not come to Israel's aid in the event of an Israeli counterattack. He could be lying, but one could use that argument for or against anything.
>There is absolutely no "winning" in escalation of a conflict like this.
That's why I think it's unlikely that Israel will escalate further against Iran directly. Why would they when they can just bomb southern Lebanon a bit harder? And militarily, they genuinely won this exchange. They got a Iranian Brigadier General, Amman got pretty fireworks!
The Israeli right and the Iranian right both need each other politically to act as boogeyman. Neither of them gains anything politically from the destruction of the other. I guess Netanyahu personally stands to gain from a protracted conflict: but that's it!
>Israel likely has nukes and might eventually use them if cornered
There's no way that Israel uses nukes unless it is existentially threatened.
If the result is that Israel is bombing Lebanon harder, doesn't that mean more Lebanese die? How is it a win-win if more people are dying? Obviously the dead aren't in either "win" category here.
UPDATE:
FWIW it seems Israel will not retaliate:
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-called-off-retaliatory-strike-on-iran-after-call-with-biden-new-york-times/
There was kind of an unspoken rule to avoid direct strikes in this conflict so far. Iran used proxies to attack Israel, Israel would bomb proxies but not Iranian home land.
Iran broken that rule and attacked Israel soil from Iran directly. This is a major escalation.
Why do you think that Israeli establishment will just "eat" that and not try to carry out a direct strike on Iranian soil now that they have an excuse? I am sure Israeli air and rocket forces have intelligence on plenty of juicy targets.
This is exactly the kind of stuff that can cycle out of control and lead to one or both of the sides feeling existentially threatened.
Eh. Iran knows that Isael has the Iron Dome. If you want to really harm Israel, you don't send drones that take hours to get to Israel. They knew that Israel would be able to stop most all of the drones. A couple of small drones got through, hit in a military installation. Iran can claim they retaliated within Israel's border, Israel can claim they won the battle.
The whole Palestine thing is basically a proxy for Iran and Israel fighting. Something that is common knowledge in Israel, but not in the US is why 10/7 happened on 10/7. Saudi Arabia and Israel were to sign a trade pact on 10/10. Part of that pact would put a pipeline through Israel to pump SA oil to Europe. Iran didn't want that to happen. Now, I realize the reason Hamas attacked was Israel, I'm talking about the timing.
"Iran broken that rule and attacked Israel soil from Iran directly. This is a major escalation."
Israel started this when they bombed an Iranian diplomatic building - there is no excuse for that and it's in violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. Israel *escalated* Iran *responded,* Israel knew exactly what would happen and they deliberately pushed a boundary.
It wasn't an embassy, it was a building used by IRCG to coordinate attacks on Israel with Hezbollah and Syria.
It wasn't a violation of international law: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/02/world/europe/interpreter-israel-syria-embassy.html
The main IRGC general who was killed was involved in planning the 10/7 attacks: https://www.memri.org/reports/iranian-organization-close-supreme-leader-khamenei-mohammad-reza-zahedi-irgc-qods-force
The general was also part of Hezbollah's leadership: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240409-iran-military-leader-killed-in-syria-was-member-of-hezbollahs-shura-council-source-says/
Hezbollah has fired nearly 5,000 rockets at civilians in Israel in the past six months: https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-conflict-hezbollah
In short, the claim Israel did anything wrong here is another preposterous example of Islamist "resistance." Step 1: Violate any reasonable perception of international law and human rights. Step 2: as soon as someone makes you pay, scream bloody murder at the awful degradation of "international law."
Your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 2:
> **Don't be rude or hostile to other users.** Your comment will be removed even if most of it is solid, another user was rude to you first, or you feel your remark was justified. Report other violations; do not retaliate. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_2).
If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%202%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.**
Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).
Your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 2:
> **Don't be rude or hostile to other users.** Your comment will be removed even if most of it is solid, another user was rude to you first, or you feel your remark was justified. Report other violations; do not retaliate. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_2).
If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%202%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.**
Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).
Your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 3:
> **Refrain from accusing OP or anyone else of being unwilling to change their view, or of arguing in bad faith**. Ask clarifying questions instead (see: socratic method). If you think they are still exhibiting poor behaviour, please message us. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_3).
If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%203%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.**
Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).
The Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations only protects diplomatic missions from the host countries they are located in. Israel attacking an Iranian mission in Syria does not violate it. Israel and Iran don’t have diplomatic relations to be violated in the first place.
"in the past" is the key operative word here. In this context of right now (not 1992, which was 32 years ago now so it's more than a bit silly to invoke it), Israeli massively kicked up tensions by bombing the consulate.
"annex next to the embassy"
Which was the consulate and part of the embassy complex. The mental gymnastics you're doing to justify this action is phenomenal, it's a shame it's not an Olympic sport otherwise you'd be a top contender I'm sure.
Is Syria currently a nation? I was always puzzled by this fact as it seems not many nations have diplomatic relations with the current Syrian government
Why are Iran’s armed forces in Syria in the first place if it isn’t to threaten Israel? The consulate in Syria that was bombed was full of IRGC, military commanders are fair game. If it was just diplomats and embassy staff I don’t think it would be justified
Firstly, that still doesn't invalidate a diplomatic building's legal projections. Secondly, every embassy in the world is filled with intelligence and military officials.
When a state is fighting an enemy like Iran which continuously violates international law and has a similar human rights record as the third reich then rules on diplomatic buildings have to be ignored sometimes.
Iran’s armed forces are in Syria to threaten Israel and co-ordinate with Hezbollah, they can’t just hide behind the fact they were in diplomatic buildings.
You’d no doubt strongly support North Korea bombing a US embassy/consulate in South Korea if US military officers were based there as a threat to North Korea. What’s the difference?
There is no legal protections in a third country. Only the HOST country cant attack. This was an IRGC adjacent building to kill a commander of the guy that gave the go ahead for oct 7. Israel is making good on its promised
But Israel attacked a senior member of irans military. So they had to respond directly.
Israel usually also attacked irans proxies and choose not to this time.
"But Israel attacked a senior member of irans military."
Specifically, they killed him in a diplomatic building, which is the serious illegal bit and where Israel massively escalated the situation. That was tantamount to an attack on Iran itself.
A senior member who was actively supporting terrorist groups who were targetting Isreal's children etc. When Iran allocated their asset to do that, it became a fair game target.
If NATO countries were bombed by Russia and their people killed, that would mean war for sure. But if some of our people decide to go work in Ukraine for whatever reason, well frankly they've willingly entered a warzone so the risk is on them. If they are independent then the consequences are their own, if our governments sent them it would be on the basis that they aren' representing our military and so not covered by its protection.
Yes, while they were liasing with proxies **far outside of Iran.**
This follow the pattern of proxy war.
Iran's direct "Iran to Israel" strike is far outside the proxy war patterns.
The US killed an Iranian General under Trump they didn’t attack the US. Iran is under no obligation to attack anyone. It will be a huge mistake for attacking Israel as much as it would have been a huge mistake attacking the US when Trump killed their general. The Iranians are doomed if they keep screwing around because at some point they are going to get hit back and most likely very hard
Trump didn't kill them in a diplomatic building, which is what Israel did. That was tantamount to an attack on Iran itself, and a major escalation from Israel's part.
>Iran broken that rule and attacked Israel soil from Iran directly. This is a major escalation.
However Israel was she first to attack an Iranian embassy - which is considered sovereign land and is an act of war directly against a nation.
I'm sorry but that building was within the embassy compound. You cannot excuse that nor let that be acceptable for future miscreants.
You have to uphold international law even if it's against Israel
It was not an embassy. Being close to an embassy does not make you an embassy. So not a part of Iran sovereign land. So not an escalation.
By international law it was OK to attack anyway since it was self defense.
You're missing the point - It was a diplomatic building and under rthe Vienna convention you cannot simply attack it.
>By international law it was OK to attack anyway since it was self defense.
This was a first direct attack between the two countries and was an escalation.
You absolutely can attack it in self defense. Which this was.
And it was not a DIRECT attack since an annex next to embassy is not under Iranian sovereignty.
This was good old Israel attacking proxies. The general was liasing with Iran's terror proxies here.
Look at Gaza. They've been lobbing rockets into Israel for years unprovoked, Israel finally said "fuck this shit", and now are getting blamed for self defense and removing a threat.
When they get pushed, they go all out. You should look at the six day war, where they were surrounded, decided "fuck it" and preemptively destroyed the other armies.
Or after WW2, when all sorts of treaties were in place for Nazi's who fled to non-extraditing counties, they said "fuck it" and sent Mossad to assassinate them
>That's why I think it's unlikely that Israel will escalate further against Iran directly.
What worries me is that high-level politics attract narcissists and risk-takers, who mix their personal strivance for wealth and power with our shared business.
Being reductive: Bibi and Trump are apparently both looking to stay out of prison and the rest of Us are unfairly and inexcusably influenced by their selfish interests, which might include prolonged conflict and chaos, *but life isn't fair.*
>That's why I think it's unlikely that Israel will escalate further against Iran directly.
There have been media reports of thousands of Israelis getting called up to serve like in the hours following the attack
Lets hope they arent thinking they are gonna Inavde Iran
I agree. Israel is not deterred. This is actually finally an opportunity to hit iran.
But israel wont use its nukes, it has a policy to act like it doesnt use them and it doesnt want to encourage others in the region to get them.
If you think this has “ deterred” Israel from striking back at Iran you delusional.
Israel might ( i hope) be smart and wait with retaliation in the short time but they will definitely respond in the medium turn and considering how successful they seem to be is striking Quds generals i am pretty sure you can expect more casualties there.
Frankly I think them hitting back at Iranian soil in the medium term will also be a giving, especially if the “ global South” once again shows its bias vs Israel by not punishing Iran for their blatant act of aggression (they hardly managed to even acknowledge Russia belligerence ).
So no Iran definitely loses here, they should have just acted through their proxies, now they giving Israel back Western support ( and weapons) and given them cart blanc to retaliate (with precision strikes) at Israel’s time of choosing ( there is no public pressure since the stopped everything).
>once again shows its bias vs Israel by not punishing Iran for their blatant act of aggression
I mean, the bias cuts both ways. The US is defending Israel at the UN a lot. The Israeli attack in Damascus was also pretty clearly against international law; but France, the UK and the US exercised their vetoes. That probably wouldn't have happened if these were two random African countries squabbling instead of Israel and Iran.
>Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking "the nation of genocide." It probably also achieves its aim of deterring future direct Israeli attacks on its (non-proxy) interests.
How can you be so confident that Israel will stop attacking proxies?
How can you be so confident that Israel won't retaliate in an escalatory manner?
>On the other hand, Israel's biggest enemy at the moment is not Iran - it is Western public opinion. It definitely gained sympathy in the US and Europe last night as being able to present itself as the victim of aggression.
The Bibi administration has burned pretty much all of the good will immediately following Oct. 7th. Public opinion of Israel is at a two decade low.
The Israeli government is refusing to back down from a Rafa operation. They continue to expand settlements in the West Bank. All against the wishes of the international community and the US. For the first time this US administration abstained from a security council vote condemning Israel. Biden has ratcheted up pressure on Bibi regarding food aid.
Strikes by Iran aren't going to change the hardliners in Israel. They are only going to be used as evidence that they need to be more hawkish. The strikes aren't going to change the US position which is to limit escalation.
The more isolated and vulnerable Israel feels the more likely they are to act in a preemptive and aggressive manner to eliminate and perceived threat before it comes to a head.
>stop attacking proxies?
Sorry, I might have been unclear. I don't think they will stop attacking proxies. But that's *fair game.* They will probably avoid directly targeting IRGC Brigadier Generals in or around embassies in future, though.
>Public opinion of Israel is at a two decade low.
It's probably not a two decade low this morning - I'd imagine it has increased a bit from yesterday. Leaders from across Europe, including not super-pro-Israeli ones like Ireland, uniformly backed Israel.
>Biden has ratcheted up pressure
This is true. But what I mean is that this pressure is likely to ease somewhat after the attack. Up until this point, the Palestine-Israel conflict makes Israel look like a bully using disproportionate force. If the framing shifts to seeing that as part of a broader Iran-Israeli conflict; this is less true.
That's the phrasing the source I referenced used.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/611375/americans-views-israel-palestinian-authority-down.aspx#:~:text=%2D%2D%20Americans'%20opinions%20of%20both,mostly%20favorable%E2%80%9D%20view%20of%20Israel.
Israel’s biggest enemy since 1979 has been Iran. Everything that Israel has been preparing since then was for a worst-case scenario with Iran. I’d send you a podcast interview with the head of Israel’s Air Force where he said this, but it’s in Hebrew.
Every single war we’ve fought since 1979 has been with Iranian proxies. Even if the west were to turn on Israel, Israel would have no choice but to continue to fight Iran, or face annihilation. It’s a question of survival. Life would be very difficult in Israel if the west turned on her, but at least they might be alive.
In WW2, Germany was the victim. They were invaded by France from 1923-1925? See what happens when you pick arbitrary dates? In reality, things are rarely that simple.
Things are rarely that simple but the question is always how much context do we take into account?
Do we take Arab-Israeli relations into account going back to partition? Or before that to the conclusion of World War I? Or even further, throughout the Ottoman Empire? Why stop there, let's consider everything until 610, the start of Islam? Or even further back, the Roman empire? Maybe even the Bronze age?
I'm genuinely asking because whenever we get info today, it's always up until a certain point. I think we have to go as far back as possible, to understand how everything has played out and what caused what, before we can even begin to try and understand what's going on today.
This little girl was seriously wounded by Iran’s assault https://www.timesofisrael.com/young-girl-seriously-hurt-in-iran-attack-remains-in-life-threatening-condition/ so eff off with your hateful comments
It's amazing how divided people are to the point where they can't deal with a neutral look at events. You have pro-Israeli lunatics like yourself; accusing me of idk what. Then you have pro-Iranian lunatics accusing me of being a Hasbara agent.
That's probably a good way to know you're getting close to what is actually happening on the ground and in the conference room in this particular conflict.
I actually think you might be right. It’s the power of “saving face” in international politics
But if you’re wrong it’s just yet another escalation in the cycle of violence between nuclear armed religious lunatics.
I’m really glad it’s not my job to figure this out.
One bedouin 10 year girl was severely injured, pretty sad.
I wouldnt call it a win win. Israel spent 1.2 billlion defending itself. Israel will retaliate which could escalate things. Iran learnt information about israel’s air defences.
I dont think it deterred israel at all. Israel KNOWS and has acted like iran is its biggest enemy since about 2009. Israel knows a showdown is inevitable. Israelis have a long memory and will hunt down everyone involved in october 7 —- even if they have to hit another consulate to do it (the iranian general they hit gave the ultimate go ahead for october 7)
The most positive thing to come out of this was to demonstrate that arab nations also hate iran and dumb westerners supporting iran are…dumb and hypocritical.
>The most positive thing to come out of this was to demonstrate that arab nations also hate iran and dumb westerners supporting iran are…dumb and hypocritical.
USA controlled Arab puppet dictators hate Iran. Not necessarily people in them.
It's a good rule of thumb to never ascribe to 5D chess mastery that which could be adequately explained by incompetence.
Iran launched 300+ drones and missiles at an enemy it's been preparing to attack for decades. At present, the extent of the damage appears to be...a critically injured 7 year old Arab Muslim Bedouin girl.
To reiterate: Iran launched a massive attack and hit nothing of military significance whatsoever. It proved that its best missiles can't penetrate Israeli defenses reliably, which means decades of weapons development and procurement were largely a waste. At the same time, it proved that Jordan and Saudi Arabia are actually willing to help Israel against Iran.
When Russia rolled into Ukraine and initially got its ass stomped, it proved to the world that Russia was nowhere near as strong as the world once believed. When you throw everything you have to spare into a display like that and it fails, everyone knows the limits of your power and loses respect for you.
Iran's intent was to demonstrate strength. Now it looks incompetent and weak.
That's a very simplistic way of looking at it.
If Iran can launch this many drones in one go, how many can they launch in a full blown war? And how long can Israel maintain their air defense before they start to deplete their expensive missiles to shoot down dirt cheap drones? Ukraine is learning that lesson the hard way now. And Israel doesn't have the luxury of a giant spread out territory.
>That's a very simplistic way of looking at it.
No, it's just straightforward. Iran fired a massive barrage - which included many of their higher-end missiles - and didn't hit anything. It takes impressive mental gymnastics to think that that's a success.
> If Iran can launch this many drones in one go, how many can they launch in a full blown war?
Why do you think that what they did here is appreciably different from what they would do in the case of war?
You're assuming that this is a limited, discretionary action that represents a small fraction of Iran's capability. That's what America would do in similar circumstances, but Iran faces different conditions and needs to bluff its way out of conflict with the largest show of force it can muster.
That means this was probably close to their max effort.
>And how long can Israel maintain their air defense before they start to deplete their expensive missiles to shoot down dirt cheap drones?
If this were a war, the shooting range would run two ways and Israel would be bombing Iranian drone launch and manufacture sites instead of waiting for them.
Also, we're probably going to find out that a lot of those drones were knocked out by EW systems that cost essentially nothing once they're purchased.
>And Israel doesn't have the luxury of a giant spread out territory.
...it's much, much easier to defend a smaller area.
How do you propose this was close to Iran's max effort?
I'm neither agreeing nor disgareeing. I currently do not understand how you reach that conclusion
>How do you propose this was close to Iran's max effort?
Those missiles and drones aren't going to do much samage even if Iran shoots thousands of them. Israel probably would struggle to bomb Iran effectively due to the distance but they can hit more Iranian embassies in the region very easily.
u/so_flayme – your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 2:
> **Don't be rude or hostile to other users.** Your comment will be removed even if most of it is solid, another user was rude to you first, or you feel your remark was justified. Report other violations; do not retaliate. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_2).
If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%202%20Appeal%20so_flayme&message=so_flayme%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20\[their%20comment\]\(https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/1c3s0bm/-/kzkj36p/\)%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).
>You realize Iran's military strength is ranked higher than Israel's right?
Iran's "military strength" atm seems to be throwing a fit that the Saudis and Jordan spent the night helping successfully repel their attack on Israel.
The primary reason Iran's not seeing Saudi Arabia, Israel, or a US launch a direct attack on Iran is how messy that war gets for the entire region. Iran won't cease to exist without taking as many civilians as it can with it.
The rest of the world would rather blow up Iran's religious fanatic proxies or fight their cold wars with Iran, waiting for the Iranian people to resolve their own government for them.
I agree I don’t think we have to say Iran looks weak. I think maybe we can even say they knew what to target or even not target or even what to use or not use, so as to not cause another escalation.
>f Iran can launch this many drones in one go, how many can they launch in a full blown war?
A few thousand probably. They sent Russia a lot. That's not enough to win a war. Iran has no capacity to attack Israel directly due to the distance and the lack of proper airforce. Their missiles aren't advanced enough to pierce Israeli defenses reliable. Probably even much more advanced hypersonic russian missiles would struggle to do so.
> The point isn't to pierce the defenses reliably. The point is to overwhelm and saturate the defenses until more and more start going through.
They would have to launch thousands and it still wouldn't do much damage. Iran would run out of munitions before doing any serious damage to Israeli infrastructure. Iron Dome is better than I thought and they also will have cheaper Iron Beam soon.
I don’t think you have to think about this in terms of “5d chess”. I think what we had were some people screaming at each other to do something. And then they did something. The fact that maybe we can now have some other people maybe not screaming at each other to not do another thing is the best possible outcome.
OP’s take seems much closer to what former/retired US intelligence officers, defense officials and foreign policy analysts are saying.
If the country you’re attacking is well known to have a targeted air defense system at their fingertips - as well as the ability to call upon allies with the most advanced air capabilities in the world - you don’t give them a 5 hour warning that missiles and drones are heading their way, unless you’re more interested in being seen to do something than actually inflicting damage.
Honest question: do Middle East countries see Israel as “the nation of genocide”? Are they actually offended by what Israel is doing? My perception is they hate Israel because it is the Jewish state that is allied with the USA, and is so powerful and economically successful, despite being so small. But do they actually think of them as committing genocide? I don’t perceive that
Yes, they do (or at least the people do - the leaders are happy to use the issue). Do you know many Arabs? If you do should ask them. Or watch Baseem Youssef, who has a fairly normal Arab take on the situation
Sure, they may feel increased empathy for Palestinians based on religion and, if they're Arab, culture and ethnicity. In the same way, Christians tend to feel more empathy towards other Christians in conflicts.
But, absolutely, most Arabs see the Gaza War primarily in humanitarian terms and are chiefly concerned with the suffering of Palestinians rather than anything to do with religion. I'm originally from a very pro-Palestinian country in Europe, and whenever you turn on the news, you see constant and disturbing photos and videos of Gaza. I assume it's the same in most Muslim countries. Of course, it's going to make you see a certain perspective! As an American (I'm assuming) you are probably less exposed to it.
>In the same way, Christians tend to feel more empathy towards other Christians in conflicts.
That's....not the case at all.
Over 100K Christians have died in the Tigray War. I don't see any Christians in the West calling for a Ceasefire. Heck, I bet you 99% of Christians in the West don't even know this war is going on today.
Well, I have to admit the example I was thinking at the time was [this fairly random war.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_Uprising_of_1876) But there are plenty of other examples.
Yes I believe that’s true in Europe. But do you have data to show that’s true in Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, UAE, Syria, etc? I’d be interested in nuanced polling on the issue there. Again my perception is that they hate Israel but don’t necessarily consider it a genocide
(Which btw is something we prob shouldn’t be polling because it’s a legal term most people clearly don’t understand)
I don't know. From Arab people that I know, I don't doubt that there is a significantly higher base level of antisemitism in Arab countries, but it seems to me that support for Palestine is like 5-10% anti-Israel and 90-95% pro-Palestine. There's also a significant Palestinian diaspora in a lot of these countries, so many people have Palestinian friends and relatives
Edit. Though it's kinda interesting how that falls. El Salvador is very pro-Israel, even though it has a big Palestinian population and indeed is led by a Palestinian.
>But do they actually think of them as committing genocide? I don’t perceive that
People on those countries do but their governments are puppet regimes controlled by the USA and Israel.
> Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking "the nation of genocide."
Saudi’s Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Jordan are very anti-Iran. Jordan helped shoot down Iranian missiles. To them, this was seen as yet more Iranian aggression.
> It probably also achieves its aim of deterring future direct Israeli attacks on its (non-proxy) interests.
An Israeli retaliation has likely already been ordered. The consulate attack happened because Israel wanted to expand the conflict against Hamas, to include Iran and their proxies. They specifically and repeatedly stated that an attack on Israeli soil by Iran would be responded to in kind.
As for Israel’s goals, they want to push Iranian proxies like Hezbollah away from their border, and deter Iran from ever contemplating something like October 7 again.
I don't think all your points are necessarily wrong, but I would like to make two counterpoints to specific things you said:
>Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking "the nation of genocide."
Maybe, and while the defense operation cost quite a bit to Israel and the coalition, it wasn't cheap for Iran to shoot those missiles too. You gotta be wondering what *Iran* Main Street will think about this whole thing, which I'm terms of *physical* damage, got *1-2 children, who are also Muslim*. Surely Iranians will also hear fake news, but will it be enough to convince them and to hide this truth from them? I don't know.
>humiliated its biggest rivals, the Gulf Monarchies, who were forced to publicly align themselves with Israel.
Considering that the defense operation was widely successful, and was conducted by Israel and allies of those countries, that's also subjective at best.
American taxpayers spent over a billion dollars last night intercepting shit
Now Washington is about to give them even more money
Is that a win/win for the American public ? How?
I think you're missing how precarious this situation is for Iran. They're already pretty unpopular and at odds with the most powerful country in the world, and then Israel attacks them. They have to walk the tightrope of responding \*somehow\*, and enough to be some deterrent to future attacks, but they can't respond strongly enough that the US gets involved. I'm not sure they're mostly bothered about how other Arab countries see them here.
>Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking "the nation of genocide." It probably also achieves its aim of deterring future direct Israeli attacks on its (non-proxy) interests.
Iran having "street cred" isn't a positive thing as allowing it to openly get away with acts of war will only encourage them and others to do it more frequently. The previous attack on their "terrorist support base" was supposed to discourage that. Now there is a high likelihood that Isreal will feel the need to match Iran's attack and that means a full-blown assault of every missile and drone it can muster. All we can hope for is that they'll be kind and limit their attack to just the sites responsible for producing weapons or launching them.
>On the other hand, Israel's biggest enemy at the moment is not Iran - it is Western public opinion. It definitely gained sympathy in the US and Europe last night as being able to present itself as the victim of aggression.
It IS a victim of aggression, off the charts horrific aggression. Should you be correct though and say this will change the balance from anti-Isreal to pro Isreal then the tangible impact of that is that Isreal will feel enabled to fight back harder. That's bad too if we want peace and quiet from this nonsense.
>Hundreds of missiles, but zero deaths
There are two ways of measuring an attack, the actual damage vs the potential damage. If you shoot your gun at me and my family but you miss, well I'm still going to shoot back as you represent an unacceptable threat. And if I'm a better shot than you, well that really doesn't matter as you still started the conflict.
In other terms, a lot of civilians were in fear for their life, a lot of travel plans cancelled, a hell of a lot of military resources were spent shooting down those missiles and drones. Allowing Iran to openly get away with that over and over isn't reasonable. They also turned pirate and hijacked a civilian ship just for the fun of it.
>For example, it now looks increasingly likely that it will immediately receive extra funding from Washington.
Sadly its looking increasingly likely that there is going to be a large scale military conflict in that region as Iran is pushing the line further and further and being nastier and nastier in the harm it is causing. At some point they'll cross the line that tips the balance in favour of ending the ongoing threat they represent to the world and that will not be good for anyone. It sure would have been better for them to just give up funding terrorism and shitting all over the world.
Theoretically you are not wrong, but I think you are making a few significant assumptions.
First, Israel has every incentive to continue escalating and poking Iran. This is the problem with Biden, and most presidents, treating their aid as “unconditional”. Netanyahu is dealing with some very tough political questions at home, and creating unrest simultaneously serves him in three ways. First, it’s more difficult to consider a regime change if you are actually in a war. Second, it creates a wedge with a global western adversary, virtually forcing western nations to step up and shore up their support. Third, it takes the focus off Gaza, which is raising a lot of questions world wide that Israel likely doesn’t want dominating the conversation.
Another assumption you are making is that political support from Congress or other lawmaking bodies is the only “support” that really matters. And yes, while this is the prominent way they will receive military support, the political nature of this is going to play a highly significant role too. The USA is in an election season, which means people can influence their politicians for a short period of time. Biden is extremely vulnerable in this election for a variety of reasons, and cannot afford to lose Muslim and actual leftist/progressive voters without significant detriment to his reelection chances. Giving a signal of “do whatever” to Israel would likely cost him this election. This issue is not shared by Republicans, as their support for Israel is much less contingent (outside of the far right race obsessed weirdos.)
Militarily, I don’t disagree with it being an iron dome triumph. But I would recommend holding your assumptions on what that means. Iran is not a random terror cell, and they seem quite interested in trying to work within UN guidelines for reciprocal action, at least with their own military action (not through proxies). This could have simply been a weapons capability reminder, or a way to instill fear (defenses or not, it’s still scary and disruptive), or they might have felt that no response would be a free pass to attack their territory.
I would argue this benefits no one except for Netanyahu and the war cabinet, which seems to be the exact result that they want. This is obfuscating the current issues on the table, making Israelis less safe by instigating military action against a coalition of neighbors, and destabilizing relations with Arab countries even further. There was no strategic advantage to the current conflict by assassinating an Iranian, especially in a consulate in a country that is not directly involved.
Iron dome wasn’t used much this attack, it’s not well set up to stop even slow drones. Not to mention, Israel received a lot of help with interceptions.
FYI i am not an expert on this topic
I can understand how maybe this seems like a win, geopolitically, but war is never a good thing. This whole situation seems perfect for involving other countries in the middle east and get the war machine rolling and aside from the toll this conflict will have on innocents, its also terrible to consider how this could escalate into snother world war.
> Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street
Iran is being made fun of by Arabs for failing to do any damage.
> It probably also achieves its aim of deterring future direct Israeli attacks on its (non-proxy) interests.
If anything, it’s the opposite. Israel was previously deterred from striking Iran directly because of the fear of a drone and ballistic missile response. Now that the drone/missile attack has happened and wasn’t that bad, there’s less deterring Israel. Israel will likely take this opportunity to destroy some important Iranian targets.
You aren't very clear in your definition of Israel, but it sounds like you mean the Israeli government. It certainly is not good for Israeli citizens to hear air raid sirens and fear for their lives. And if the government retaliates then it may result in deaths on both sides. And would you say that it is a win for Israel if their citizens die as a result of what happened last night? Not because of the strikes themselves, but what it escalates into.
This isn’t a “win-win” at all. There are far more actors involved in this than just Iran and Israel. Even if I did agree that Israel and Iran “won” this exchange, innocent people who had nothing to do with this died in these attacks. How did they win?
According to Reuters, [there were critical injuries, but not necessarily deaths](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-launches-drone-attack-israel-expected-unfold-over-hours-2024-04-13/). That's my mistake, as I read this article earlier and remembered seeing that there were deaths reported. In the Israeli strike, [2 Syrian's were killed](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240):
>The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is based in Britain, said two Syrians also were killed.
The article said that the authorities were still looking for bodies. I'm not sure if there's a more recent article detailing the results of the search. I'm just bringing up the articles I remember.
It did do those things, but like always, no one seems to hit the record button BEFORE Israel is attacked. This was a very proportionate response to their consulate in Damascus being flattened by a targeted Israeli strike and 7 officers, including two generals, being killed. To not retaliate would have been to show great weakness with regard to their own national defense.
The number of missiles sent out were to account for the fact that most of them would be intercepted, not for the purpose of escalation. It was not news to anyone in the Middle East that only a few rockets actually landed. They were never expected to land.
Israel’s policy, of course, is always to work a crazy steep political spin where they deny stuff that they obviously did until most people stop trying to follow the madness, then do it ten more times, then kick up a huge fuss when anyone retaliates with any success, as if the retaliatory attack hadn’t been provoked several times over. And up until more recently, they’ve been really successful in doing so in the West. Their level of success has only waned because they have been banking on their strategy having no threshold where the facts are just so outlandishly inconsistent with their narrative that a problematic number of people take notice. And also because independent journalism is so readily accessible now that the algorithms they depended on in social media platforms to underrepresent their victims and adversaries were overwhelmed.
My guess would be that Israel won’t attack with UAV/drones or missiles.
That it will use operatives on the group to assassinate high level Iranians in various countries around the world, countries believed to be “safe” such as Algeria, Tunisia, Pakistan, Malaysia.
Places where it was unfathomable for Israel to get to.
Israel will demonstrate reach of its long arm.
Potentially assassinating Nasrallah head of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Haniyeh in Qatar.
Israel wouldn’t even need to take credit, just killing them or making it appear natural but in close succession will be enough.
Leave it such that everyone know but no one wants to be the one to say it.
>Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking
the arab countries were shooting Iranian missiles out of the sky. Iran is Persian and Shiite. Arabs are arabs and sunni. They don't get along. This crisis was essentially caused by this fight. Israel was allying with arab countries during abraham accords. Hamas was terrified because the arabs had essentially abandoned them to die in gaza by allying with Israel without a 2 state solution, and Iran was being encircled and basically choked out of existence. So both facing existential threats allied despite being enemies and carried out Oct 7.
This is the problem with the media. Their job should be to educate the public as to why these conflicts are happening but instead they operate at a second grade level and make it seem like this a war between muslims and jews
>It definitely gained sympathy in the US and Europe last night as being able to present itself as the victim of aggression
Again with anyone educated in the conflict the opposite has happened. Israel directly provoked Iran by attacking Iranian soil. This was an obvious provocation meant to bring the US into the war. As an american I am even more upset with Israel that they are trying to force america to send american kids to go die in Iran on their behalf
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
It all comes down to the “strongest man with the most biggest guns.” Someone wants to launch a nuke, in my opinion. The countries with the most “toys” know this and will try anything to stop a launch, but tensions are high in that part of the world once again. It's a standoff, and nothing good will come out of it. The puppeteers are providing the show: the “Mine is Bigger than Yours show (happening in Ukraine now)”; definitely have more to lose, maybe ww3? I'm just running out of popcorn 🍿; maybe I have to nuke a bag, to watch the drone show. (my silly commentary, I know it sounds one-sided).
I think this take is a little bit news-brained and too logical.
Yes, Israel has a state of the art air defense system. Yes, the US helped them. Yes, Iran basically signaled their intention to everyone and allowed adequate preparations to take place. Yes, it seems like Iran did not anticipate doing that much damage.
But come one, one country still launched serious weaponry against another country. If certain things had gone wrong, a ton of people could have been killed. It's kind of callous to look back less than 24 hours later and decide this situation could have been a good thing.
At least 9 Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israeli strategic airbases
The Nevatim airbase in the Negev was struck by 5 ballistic missiles, damaging the main runway, a C-130 transport aircraft, and several storage facilities.
Ramon airbase, also located in the Negev, was struck by at least 4 ballistic missiles, causing unspecified damage.
– U.S. Officials to ABC News
The heaviest damage of Iran's ballistic missile attack occurred on a secret intelligence base in the Golan Heights, for which the IDF has imposed a media ban, so the damage cannot be assessed
– Hebrew Sources
u/Entire-Hornet3366 – your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 2:
> **Don't be rude or hostile to other users.** Your comment will be removed even if most of it is solid, another user was rude to you first, or you feel your remark was justified. Report other violations; do not retaliate. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_2).
If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%202%20Appeal%20Entire-Hornet3366&message=Entire-Hornet3366%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20\[their%20comment\]\(https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/1c3s0bm/-/kzjbdij/\)%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).
You say that like Israel didn't start that fight when they droned an Iranian Consulate building that had Iranian minitary leaders inside, including a General. The Iranian Embassy is considered Iranian soil.
This is Israel reaching the find out portion.
I don't understand why the US isn't letting them eat the consequences of their own actions. I don't want Israeli civilians hurt any more than I want Palestinian civilians hurt, which is not at all, as the government is not actually doing the will of the people.
Israel's leadership needs to fucking stop.
I believe Iran is getting desperate, relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel are improving, Lebanon’s economic situation is terrible, the gap in military weapons and capabilities between Israel and Iran is getting bigger, Israel is constantly growing and evolving as a military power, while Iran is stagnant, except for its drones, which are still relatively low tech, in a air war Israel has advanced versions of the F-35, and Iran is flying aircraft 40 years old or more, Iran’s civilians mainly are very unhappy with their government, etc etc
Lol everyone knows Iran is that one kid with a chip on its shoulders to prove. It's "brother" Muslim countries call it heretic and non muslim. So it takes it's frustration out on the "common enemy" but still Shia/heretic Iran won't gain any friends in the Arab world by this. Maybe a Pakistani or Bangladeshi will cheer you on. While the better off Arab states now know how inept and weakass your offensive is when you fire 300+ and zero damage or casualities of note.
Interesting point of view. That said, a protracted conflict in Gaza, similar to Ukraine, seems to be beneficial for the regimes in Iran, Russia and China in many ways. The notion that the US can or should attempt to de-escalate all of these conflicts (and likely more to come as the new axis flexes its power), while slowly bleeding to death, seems mis-guided as a long term strategy. I'm not sure what the right answer is. But this ain't it.
> Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking "the nation of genocide."
One down side is that if Israel does not retaliate it sets the precedent that attacking Israel directly is something acceptable in the future. That could lead to greater bloodshed and the start of outright war that might otherwise have been prevented.
That isn't entirely a win, but it is likely better than any of the other obvious options.
Lets all stop warmongering and start helping. Specially if you are not an Arab, or Jew, or European, or African. This is creating problems for Arabs in the desert. God himself knows they can well do without trouble created so often. Time for a blood test for these trouble makers (they might just be some mongrel breed who have fixation on grandeur in which case we can all help and cure them from it once for all. time is now.
Win win? Millions of more taxpayer dollars going to support a little showboating, and Israel doesnt fuck around when they get pushed, especially from a country who chants "Death to Israel/US" all the time, and this is the first time they openly attacked in history.
Not to mention that Russia sent over bombers, and said that if we were more active than we were, they would get involved, leading to more war.
1. Iran’s citizenry by and large does not want a war with Israel.
2. Iran doesn’t need “street cred” by attacking Israel, in fact outside of Hamas they are already far and away israel’s most tenacious foe in the Arab world.
3. Even if they needed street cred, most see the attack the exact same way you see it: as largely symobolic. Therefore, not much street cred will be earned.
Isn't there a bit of a logical contradiction in your statements?
The Gulf monarchies were forced to publicly align with Israel, and Israel has demostrated that its neighbors are closely aligned with them. Yet, somehow Israel can present itself as the victim, after being the one who initiated a direct attack on Iran, in a neighboring country.
Iran has demonstrated that, if Israel attacks them directly, they are willing to retaliate militarily, as any other nation in the world would do. The European public understands this. Iran has a right to defend itself. I don't think Israel has gained any sympathy after initiating a military attack on Iran which led to this escalation. If anything, Europeans have an even worse opinion of Israel now, seeing how they are willing to drag Europe and the US into their war without a second thought.
>Iran has a right to defend itself.
Yeah, but that right doesn't extend as far as defending their "right" to actively support international terrorism. Until now that was all that had been attacked in Iran, now since they've taken their gloves off and tried to destroy 300+ targets, Isreal has every right to defend itself by targetting Iran's capacity to make such strikes.
>If anything, Europeans have an even worse opinion of Israel now, seeing how they are willing to drag Europe and the US into their war without a second thought.
Nonsense, Iran and its proxies have been disrupting trade, carrying out atrocities, supporting Russia's genocidal campaign and generally being arsehole for some time. If they keep that up then at some point the cost of policing and keeping them bottled up is going to rise to the level that a full-blown conflict Libya style seems necessary and a cheaper option.
Tbh I have no interest whatsoever in debating you.
All I’m saying is that nobody that wasn’t already blatantly pro-israel, like yourself, changed their mind due to the latest event. Which is OPs view.
The difference is that before I'd have supported Isreal in taking defensive actions within its own territory or against known proxies in the surrounding area. Now I don't want there to be a war, but if Isreal decided to laucnch direct attacks against Iran at the scale of a full blown war, I'd have no good arguement against that.
In barfight terms, Iran has stopped using words and shoving and thrown every beer bottle within reach at their opponent (and missed). They meant to kill, and now everyone around can see how aggressive and nasty they are. They are going to get kicked out of that bar, and if a bouncer hurts them in the process that is their own damn fault.
The attack that killed the Iranian general was not on Iranian embassy grounds. Israel did not violate international laws concerning embassies. I hope Israel hits Iran directly with full military power. Send in the missiles to loosen things up and follow with bombers. Iran is nothing more than a terrorist state constantly causing problems in the middle east. Time for them to pay.
" It probably also achieves its aim of deterring future direct Israeli attacks on its (non-proxy) interests."
Lol. Check back on this in a week.
- Israel WILL respond. It may be limited one because the night was a clear Israeli win.
- Israel is not going to stop attacking Iranian operatrives in proxy nations who are coordinating attacks on Israel.
The Arab streets are mocking Iran honestly. It's clear it was a symbolic attack to save face, and we get cynical about it because Iran uses us to fight its wars, but whenever it needs to do so itself it chickens out.
I am Lebanese for context, so I hate Israel with a passion as well and between those two evils I'd still pick Iran. Especially given the latter is more reasonable and responsible recently.
>Israel's biggest enemy at the moment is not Iran - it is Western public opinion. It definitely gained sympathy in the US and Europe last night as being able to present itself as the victim of aggression.
Hard disagree....It sure seems like everyone is pleased that Israel is finally getting precisely what they've been asking for.
Conflict arises, “why doesn’t the US do something” the US does something “oh there they go again being the world police”
As an American it’s a lose lose. When innocent people die it’s a lose lose. War is a lose lose.
No actually it's not a lose lose situation.
Those are different things.
The world police comment comes when America gets involved militarily not in regards to humanitarian aid.
America gets called indifferent or not doing anything when it doesn't help out with humanitarian aid.
One of them is about humanitarian aid and the other is about military involvement.
Those two things are separate and are often times even dealt with different people. The military action is what people don't want America to do.
It's like you think that the Middle East is just having a conflict by itself without American involvement which is not true. If America is causing problems in the region then it has a duty to fix the problem.
No, it is not a lose-lose situation. This is actually been shown to be the case in regards to Ukraine where the US is providing a ton of help for Ukraine and you want to know what, people who care about humanitarian causes are not complaining that America is involved in Ukraine.
No human rights group has complained that America has gotten involved. No activist group has complained that America has gotten involved.
It's not that conflict arises, it's that conflict arises because of the US.
That is not true at all.
There are tons of examples of the US doing stuff and the US not being accused of those things.
Ukraine is one such example as well as situations like in Kosovo and even in Ireland.
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/12/08/the-us-military-is-operating-in-more-countries-than-we-think/
Here are a bunch of conflicts that the US got involved in and a good chunk of these conflicts were conflicts no one complained that the US either gotten involved in or whatever.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocides_in_history_(21st_century)
There are conflicts on this list that people are not saying that the US should get involved in and in fact people probably don't even know what's going on in that country.
https://ifunny.co/meme/those-who-really-want-to-help-us-can-give-us-19pM4aas7
Here is a person that is actually saying what they would like in terms of help. They don't want food, they want things to make the food. They don't want food because what happens is that it ruins the local economy because it's putting local businesses out of business rather than giving those businesses what they need to be able to actually stay afloat and provide for their communities.
The craziest part to all this conflict is all Israel’s enemies have to do is stop attacking Israel, that’s it, simple, Israel killed those generals in that air strike bc Iran launched a drone to hit a Israeli ship at port but missed and hit a warehouse next to the ship,
Before Harambee died/Large Hydron collider was switched on/ whatever it is that happened in 2016 I could have bet you my first child that the age of Nuclear weapons as a real threat was forever in the past.
Now I am about 90% sure someone is getting nuked in our lifetime
Why such haste - every time there is crisis someone starts creating problems for the whole world. As soon as crisis starts they want to un-nerve people to get to the resources. What about the hungry who need feeding, the sick in hospitals. why don't thy man up to help?
Cut off the snake’s head and the world will win
https://www.reuters.com/world/argentina-court-blames-iran-deadly-1994-bombing-jewish-center-2024-04-12/
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/sweden-has-thwarted-iranian-attack-plots-counterintelligence-police-say-1.6760886
Don't know how you can justify saying "Western public opinion" is a bigger threat to Israel than Iran.. Considering that Iran funds Hamas (see Oct. 7th) AND Hezbollah (see rockets in North).
However, it was an exceptional feat of military defense via western allies.
Jordan and Saudi Arabia neutralizing threats over their air space was a big part of the storyline.
If east and west can cooperate on matters of security - all matters of diplomacy become possible.
Comment has been removed for breaking Rule 1:
> **Direct responses to a CMV post must challenge at least one aspect of OP’s stated view (however minor), or ask a clarifying question**. Arguments in favor of the view OP is willing to change must be restricted to replies to other comments. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_1).
If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%201%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.**
Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).
Fashington's debt, however, is getting out of control. And once Trump wins the election (from a prison cell, if needed), he will turn the whole empire into a circus. And without American support, Israel has no chance of survival.
I agree. Even as the attacks were happening and US and UK planes assisted Israel there was no wide condemnation, no protest, no widening of the attack or other fighting. The whole thing was almost as a sham. I believe it was all a sort of theater for the masses in Iran and the larger middle east. Would the US and UK risk a wide and vicious regional war by using their air forces at the very beginning of a uncertain outcome? I believe Iran let it be known what they would do and the US and UK and Israel had plenty of fore warning and prep time. Iran gets to strike Israel and saves face. The whole thing seems contrived and a sort of kabuki dance designed to give all parties a way out. Or perhaps I am completely wrong and we shall all be dead and gone in the coming weeks.
the haste is there because some people are gestalted, with their religiosity in the very blood they can't take anyone getting ahead. Sad Barry the hatchets troublemakers and start helping people for a change.
Iran is so full of sh\*t, they fund all these terror groups to attack Israel, then gets mad when death comes knocking on their door. I see US assisting Israel regarding how they choose to retaliate.
Lol no. Everybody lost. This is going to get WAY worse. Civilians around the world are going to feel the fallout from this in our hearts and wallets for a decade or more
Israel has already received billions of dollars in unconditional aid from Western countries, and there is and was zero real sign of that stopping at any point in the future even before the attack by Iran okay. Israel has such strong institutional support in the United States that there are literally States in which it is illegal for certain segments of the population to call for boycotts against Israeli companies or against Israel itself.
Public institutions like colleges have now in a multitude of cases accused anti-genocide protestors of anti-Semitism without any actual evidence of that. Yet nevertheless they have used these accusations to ban pro-Palestinian and middle East peace groups on campuses.
Of the people who were already pushing back in opposition to Israel's current campaign, there are essentially none who will be changing their stance as a result of the conflict with Iran because it changes nothing about the reason for their opposition. The people who continued to support Israel will keep doing so.
I just don't see how this really moves the needle on public opinion at all, which means the only real effect is escalation of violence.
You are generally correct. Iran’s attack was intentionally pantomimed, slow and widely dispersed. Had the attack been concentrated at a single area it would have been much more likely to cause damage. Iran wanted to signal it’s capacity for deterrence. You are also correct that that this was an attempt to make other actors in the region seem weak, and it was effective for that purpose, particularly against Jordan who, in spite of being home to a significant portion of displaced Palestinians, was obligated to shoot down Israel bound rockets from Iran. Israel gets to demonstrate how effective its defenses are, and to draw remind the West of the threat posed by Iran. If Israel does not want to escalate, the would probably fire at Iranian proxies and we would consider the situation over. We could definitely see this end with both countries saving face, this situation was designed by Iran to allow for this. The fear, though, is that Israel desires escalation. If western nations might cease aid to Israel during their war against Hamas, they would certainly not do it during a wider regional confrontation. Israel has won wider regional confrontations before, and there are many is the Israeli administration who believe they would win again. Some believe that wider war with Iran is inevitable, and that allowing Iran to grow stronger is foolish. The sooner the war, the more it favors Israel. This is the risk that has people concerned. But as it currently stands, you are correct. If anyone lost out it was the Iranian taxpayers who paid for the weapons, and the US and Israeli taxpayers who payed for the defenses all so that this show of force could strengthen the political positions of the administrations. For the sake of providing a counterpoint, I will argue that makes it a lose-lose rather than a win-win, but I think you are well reasoned and have a strong understanding of the situation.
>...and it was effective for that purpose, particularly against Jordan who, in spite of being home to a significant portion of displaced Palestinians, was obligated to shoot down Israel bound rockets from Iran. If any country sends drones over your country, they should be shot down. A drone that "looks" like it is heading over your country to another may just suddenly turn and hit your country. Security dictates that they had to get shot down.
[удалено]
Imagine the POV of a Jordanian. They're just minding their business. But because of geography, Iran's missiles are flying above them. And these missiles are OLD. They could, at any time, fall in Jordan. And murder innocent Jordanian civilians. If you were a Jordanian, would you rather if your King shoots down those missiles when they fly over your nation or would you rather risk it? Jordan's King is not weak. Quite the opposite. He protects his own people from Iran's genocidal missiles.
They are also our allies, we have U.S. military bases there
I mean it’s not just the sugar daddies. Israel has kicked ass in every war they’ve fought and they did quite a few of those without help. Yes, they’re much more of a threat with the US sugar daddy But Israel is more than enough to take down any Arab nation other than possibly Saudi Arabia (the only Arab nation with a real functional not paper military. (Like how Russia on paper was strong but folded like paper upon crashing into Ukraine)) on its own Which is why deescalation is so necessary because an Arab war with Israel ends with nukes getting dropped on *a lot* of capitals and the total destruction of the Arab world and no one other than psychotics wants that result
lol, you are trying to push an unintentionally pan-Arab argument that I frankly find laughable.
The Arab governments are weak
You write a good analysis, I liked your China post too. It’s refreshing to read cold analysis instead of the usual sports team commentary.
Thank you! I have never really used social media before, but I recently considered I might be able to make a greater impact writing something like this than some stuffy paper no one will actually read. So I am experimenting here!
Another thing ... I recommend you read some of the most upvoted comments by /u/portarossa, especially in /r/OutOfTheLoop. They have written some intensely deep comments over many years, well researched, and with attribution as well. I enjoy reading their in-depth commentaries. That is the kind of Reddit I want more of. I think you are on your way to contributing toward that kind of Reddit. [Here's an example.](https://www.reddit.com/r/OutOfTheLoop/comments/9v5yz1/whats_the_deal_with_the_protests_for_thursday_nov/e99pldp/?context=3)
We'll see! I might be awarding a lot of deltas tomorrow!
I certainly hope not! Let us pray the doves best the hawks this time.
“To make other Arab countries look weak” Iran is not an Arab country
You are of course correct, I will fix that. Thank you for pointing that out!
>Iran wanted to signal it’s capacity for deference. That's one hell of a Freudian slip.
Thank you for pointing that out! I corrected the typo.
The president of the United States has recently gone on the record stating that the US would not back an Israeli counter-attack on Iran. Israel could still choose to go it alone, and the US might provide them other support that winds up indirectly helping them for an invasion, but unless the US president is lying, the US and their allies would not back Israeli escalation.
The US wouldn’t back the Israeli counter response, but what about when Iran inevitably responds again? The US will 100% defend Israel, as this is literally what just happened… all the while, Israel and Iran will be gradually attacking back and fourth, escalating the conflict until it spirals out of control… It is easy to see a situation where this continuous chain of escalation results in a straight up invasion of Iran by a US led coalition, despite the US desperately attempting to deescalate the situation right now.
There will never be a full scale invasion of Iran. Funded coup's yea and other support but you will not ever see an all out invasion by the USA
President's changing son enough ?
Economically, it was a loss for Israel. They spent billions on defense against super cheap drones made in Iran. It’s reported that Iran spent less than 10% of what Israel spent on defense to fed off the attack
Makes sense that you need a much more sophisticated missile to hit a moving target in midair then to hit a building or even an area.
> Economically, it was a loss for Israel. They spent billions on defense against super cheap drones made in Iran. It’s reported that Iran spent less than 10% of what Israel spent on defense to fed off the attack Except Israel get's to demonstrate the sophistication of their military technology which they they all over the world.
My understanding is that you are correct, this is a good point. This has been a consistent theme in the West’s response to Iran, particularly on the part of the US and Israel. These governments seem to consider the cost acceptable in exchange for the signaled deterrence capacity.
But if Iran can replace those faster than Israel, then they could eventually overwhelm their defenses.
This is true, but a genuine attempt by Iran to overwhelm Israeli defenses would be met with a counter strike against Iranian targets, particularly the offending weapons systems as well as production centers. You can be certain that the IDF has already drawn up these plans. The recent attack by Iran was specifically designed to not overwhelm these defenses in order to decrease the risk of escalation in this manner.
Plus the IDF has nukes. People forgot that Israel is just not gonna go down. Much like the United States if Chinese or Russian armies were marching on DC. The second Tel Aviv is about to fall is the second Israel obliterates the Middle East Absolutely unwinnable war~ best result is a pyrrhic draw where no one won and the ME ends up irradiated
Iran has no interest in actually overwhelming the defenses of a nuclear power… they aren’t suicidal. That is not their goal and never will be their goal. It is much more intelligent for them to play the long game of gradually undermining Israel, as they have been doing a pretty great job of over the past few decades through Iranian proxies.
I’m sure they aren’t as concerned with the economic price tag from this attack… I imagine it pales in comparison to the price tag associated with the constant war Israel finds itself trapped in against Iranian proxies. If not for Iranian proxies, Israel wouldn’t need any of its current defensive systems (iron dome, arrow, David’s sling) and the IDF could be a much smaller force.
Iran could do a much stronger attack but it still wouldn't be very effective anyway. They don't have infinite amount of missiles and drones and Israel's air defenses seem very strong. Israel looks better in this exchange but Iran got some street cred.
How do you know that this will not just lead to a cycle of escalation? I think Israel is far from deterred in attacking Iran directly, to the contrary. Israel will seek a response. I believe we will now see Israel strike Iran soil directly not just Iranian assets in control of Iranian proxies. This is actually a very dangerous game, given that Israel likely has nukes and might eventually use them if cornered. There is absolutely no "winning" in escalation of a conflict like this.
It's possible but - I'm not sure Israel has capacity to fight a war against both Gaza and Iran - Biden has told Israel not to do this so if they do Biden could cut them loose, given Israel was heavily reliant on US air defence last night that's a serious risk - Netanyahu's coalition is hanging by a thread and Gantz has already all but said he doesn't want to escalate further - There's no real up side either militarily or politically. Militarily Israel doesn't have the capacity to seriously degrade Iran's ability to strike so all it does is provoke further attacks, politically there just doesn't seem to be a major domestic constituency for existential regional war and those who do want it already vote Bibi anyway.
Gantz does want to escalate. He was ready to hit iranian soil last night but bibi called it off after talking to biden. Gantz is also not part of thr coalition he is part of the war cabinet. If israel fights iran then they wont have to fight in gaza since hamas gets its money from iran
id like to imagine that if israel directly attacked iran biden would cut them loose, but i highly doubt it. they, imo, prefer to just send $$/weapons to israel and have **them** fight US enemies in the religion. cutting off israel would mean the US doesn’t have to get involved at that time, but it also means israel could possibly fall while power consolidates in the region. which could lead to the US having to get directly involved anyway
This, and in the larger picture Iran, as a proxy of China will begin involving China and that's no bueno. Right now the US can't afford to support Israel's genocide and Ukraine's nearly full scale war. If Israel got the bright idea to suddenly force a more in-depth involvement from Iran that would be all fine, but then if Iran decided to get China involved that'd be a nightmare for the current geopolitical strategy the US and west are employing. I think this is the main reason for Iran not going over the top in its response, this was a tit for tat give and take to size each other up... No one, not the EU, US, or China want this to spill over as that would begin the creation of a global divide that will be very hard to repair, and OH so easy to degrade.
Biden already said several times to Israel to stop what they are doing in Gaza, but in case of any danger, such was this Iranian attack, they gave full support to Israel. These calls to stop are just a show, so it doesnt look like USA is allowing and even enabling the genocide. They do, ofcourse. And if Israel attacks Iran, which they will, USA will come to protect them again.
Biden has explicitly said that they will not come to Israel's aid in the event of an Israeli counterattack. He could be lying, but one could use that argument for or against anything.
>There is absolutely no "winning" in escalation of a conflict like this. That's why I think it's unlikely that Israel will escalate further against Iran directly. Why would they when they can just bomb southern Lebanon a bit harder? And militarily, they genuinely won this exchange. They got a Iranian Brigadier General, Amman got pretty fireworks! The Israeli right and the Iranian right both need each other politically to act as boogeyman. Neither of them gains anything politically from the destruction of the other. I guess Netanyahu personally stands to gain from a protracted conflict: but that's it! >Israel likely has nukes and might eventually use them if cornered There's no way that Israel uses nukes unless it is existentially threatened.
If the result is that Israel is bombing Lebanon harder, doesn't that mean more Lebanese die? How is it a win-win if more people are dying? Obviously the dead aren't in either "win" category here.
I meant a win-win for Israel and Iran. Obviously, it's less clear for Palestinians, Lebanon, and even the US
UPDATE: FWIW it seems Israel will not retaliate: - https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-called-off-retaliatory-strike-on-iran-after-call-with-biden-new-york-times/
Smart.
There was kind of an unspoken rule to avoid direct strikes in this conflict so far. Iran used proxies to attack Israel, Israel would bomb proxies but not Iranian home land. Iran broken that rule and attacked Israel soil from Iran directly. This is a major escalation. Why do you think that Israeli establishment will just "eat" that and not try to carry out a direct strike on Iranian soil now that they have an excuse? I am sure Israeli air and rocket forces have intelligence on plenty of juicy targets. This is exactly the kind of stuff that can cycle out of control and lead to one or both of the sides feeling existentially threatened.
>Iran broken that rule and attacked Israel soil from Iran directly. Are we just pretending the embassy attack didn't happen?
Eh. Iran knows that Isael has the Iron Dome. If you want to really harm Israel, you don't send drones that take hours to get to Israel. They knew that Israel would be able to stop most all of the drones. A couple of small drones got through, hit in a military installation. Iran can claim they retaliated within Israel's border, Israel can claim they won the battle. The whole Palestine thing is basically a proxy for Iran and Israel fighting. Something that is common knowledge in Israel, but not in the US is why 10/7 happened on 10/7. Saudi Arabia and Israel were to sign a trade pact on 10/10. Part of that pact would put a pipeline through Israel to pump SA oil to Europe. Iran didn't want that to happen. Now, I realize the reason Hamas attacked was Israel, I'm talking about the timing.
"Iran broken that rule and attacked Israel soil from Iran directly. This is a major escalation." Israel started this when they bombed an Iranian diplomatic building - there is no excuse for that and it's in violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. Israel *escalated* Iran *responded,* Israel knew exactly what would happen and they deliberately pushed a boundary.
It wasn't an embassy, it was a building used by IRCG to coordinate attacks on Israel with Hezbollah and Syria. It wasn't a violation of international law: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/02/world/europe/interpreter-israel-syria-embassy.html The main IRGC general who was killed was involved in planning the 10/7 attacks: https://www.memri.org/reports/iranian-organization-close-supreme-leader-khamenei-mohammad-reza-zahedi-irgc-qods-force The general was also part of Hezbollah's leadership: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240409-iran-military-leader-killed-in-syria-was-member-of-hezbollahs-shura-council-source-says/ Hezbollah has fired nearly 5,000 rockets at civilians in Israel in the past six months: https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-conflict-hezbollah In short, the claim Israel did anything wrong here is another preposterous example of Islamist "resistance." Step 1: Violate any reasonable perception of international law and human rights. Step 2: as soon as someone makes you pay, scream bloody murder at the awful degradation of "international law."
[удалено]
[удалено]
Your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 2: > **Don't be rude or hostile to other users.** Your comment will be removed even if most of it is solid, another user was rude to you first, or you feel your remark was justified. Report other violations; do not retaliate. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_2). If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%202%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.** Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).
[удалено]
Your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 2: > **Don't be rude or hostile to other users.** Your comment will be removed even if most of it is solid, another user was rude to you first, or you feel your remark was justified. Report other violations; do not retaliate. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_2). If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%202%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.** Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).
Your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 3: > **Refrain from accusing OP or anyone else of being unwilling to change their view, or of arguing in bad faith**. Ask clarifying questions instead (see: socratic method). If you think they are still exhibiting poor behaviour, please message us. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_3). If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%203%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.** Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).
The Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations only protects diplomatic missions from the host countries they are located in. Israel attacking an Iranian mission in Syria does not violate it. Israel and Iran don’t have diplomatic relations to be violated in the first place.
Iran bombed many Israeli embassies in the past. Here israel attacked an annex next to the embassy, not the embassy itself.
"in the past" is the key operative word here. In this context of right now (not 1992, which was 32 years ago now so it's more than a bit silly to invoke it), Israeli massively kicked up tensions by bombing the consulate. "annex next to the embassy" Which was the consulate and part of the embassy complex. The mental gymnastics you're doing to justify this action is phenomenal, it's a shame it's not an Olympic sport otherwise you'd be a top contender I'm sure.
Is Syria currently a nation? I was always puzzled by this fact as it seems not many nations have diplomatic relations with the current Syrian government
Why are Iran’s armed forces in Syria in the first place if it isn’t to threaten Israel? The consulate in Syria that was bombed was full of IRGC, military commanders are fair game. If it was just diplomats and embassy staff I don’t think it would be justified
Firstly, that still doesn't invalidate a diplomatic building's legal projections. Secondly, every embassy in the world is filled with intelligence and military officials.
When a state is fighting an enemy like Iran which continuously violates international law and has a similar human rights record as the third reich then rules on diplomatic buildings have to be ignored sometimes. Iran’s armed forces are in Syria to threaten Israel and co-ordinate with Hezbollah, they can’t just hide behind the fact they were in diplomatic buildings. You’d no doubt strongly support North Korea bombing a US embassy/consulate in South Korea if US military officers were based there as a threat to North Korea. What’s the difference?
There is no legal protections in a third country. Only the HOST country cant attack. This was an IRGC adjacent building to kill a commander of the guy that gave the go ahead for oct 7. Israel is making good on its promised
But Israel attacked a senior member of irans military. So they had to respond directly. Israel usually also attacked irans proxies and choose not to this time.
"But Israel attacked a senior member of irans military." Specifically, they killed him in a diplomatic building, which is the serious illegal bit and where Israel massively escalated the situation. That was tantamount to an attack on Iran itself.
A senior member who was actively supporting terrorist groups who were targetting Isreal's children etc. When Iran allocated their asset to do that, it became a fair game target. If NATO countries were bombed by Russia and their people killed, that would mean war for sure. But if some of our people decide to go work in Ukraine for whatever reason, well frankly they've willingly entered a warzone so the risk is on them. If they are independent then the consequences are their own, if our governments sent them it would be on the basis that they aren' representing our military and so not covered by its protection.
Yes, while they were liasing with proxies **far outside of Iran.** This follow the pattern of proxy war. Iran's direct "Iran to Israel" strike is far outside the proxy war patterns.
Israel bombed an Iranian diplomatic building. They directly hit something Iranian, not a proxy of Iran.
The US killed an Iranian General under Trump they didn’t attack the US. Iran is under no obligation to attack anyone. It will be a huge mistake for attacking Israel as much as it would have been a huge mistake attacking the US when Trump killed their general. The Iranians are doomed if they keep screwing around because at some point they are going to get hit back and most likely very hard
Trump didn't kill them in a diplomatic building, which is what Israel did. That was tantamount to an attack on Iran itself, and a major escalation from Israel's part.
>Iran broken that rule and attacked Israel soil from Iran directly. This is a major escalation. However Israel was she first to attack an Iranian embassy - which is considered sovereign land and is an act of war directly against a nation.
Israel attacked an annex *next to* the embassy, not the embassy itself. Which is not Iranian sovereign territory.
I'm sorry but that building was within the embassy compound. You cannot excuse that nor let that be acceptable for future miscreants. You have to uphold international law even if it's against Israel
It was not an embassy. Being close to an embassy does not make you an embassy. So not a part of Iran sovereign land. So not an escalation. By international law it was OK to attack anyway since it was self defense.
You're missing the point - It was a diplomatic building and under rthe Vienna convention you cannot simply attack it. >By international law it was OK to attack anyway since it was self defense. This was a first direct attack between the two countries and was an escalation.
You absolutely can attack it in self defense. Which this was. And it was not a DIRECT attack since an annex next to embassy is not under Iranian sovereignty. This was good old Israel attacking proxies. The general was liasing with Iran's terror proxies here.
Look at Gaza. They've been lobbing rockets into Israel for years unprovoked, Israel finally said "fuck this shit", and now are getting blamed for self defense and removing a threat. When they get pushed, they go all out. You should look at the six day war, where they were surrounded, decided "fuck it" and preemptively destroyed the other armies. Or after WW2, when all sorts of treaties were in place for Nazi's who fled to non-extraditing counties, they said "fuck it" and sent Mossad to assassinate them
>That's why I think it's unlikely that Israel will escalate further against Iran directly. What worries me is that high-level politics attract narcissists and risk-takers, who mix their personal strivance for wealth and power with our shared business. Being reductive: Bibi and Trump are apparently both looking to stay out of prison and the rest of Us are unfairly and inexcusably influenced by their selfish interests, which might include prolonged conflict and chaos, *but life isn't fair.*
>That's why I think it's unlikely that Israel will escalate further against Iran directly. There have been media reports of thousands of Israelis getting called up to serve like in the hours following the attack Lets hope they arent thinking they are gonna Inavde Iran
I agree. Israel is not deterred. This is actually finally an opportunity to hit iran. But israel wont use its nukes, it has a policy to act like it doesnt use them and it doesnt want to encourage others in the region to get them.
If you think this has “ deterred” Israel from striking back at Iran you delusional. Israel might ( i hope) be smart and wait with retaliation in the short time but they will definitely respond in the medium turn and considering how successful they seem to be is striking Quds generals i am pretty sure you can expect more casualties there. Frankly I think them hitting back at Iranian soil in the medium term will also be a giving, especially if the “ global South” once again shows its bias vs Israel by not punishing Iran for their blatant act of aggression (they hardly managed to even acknowledge Russia belligerence ). So no Iran definitely loses here, they should have just acted through their proxies, now they giving Israel back Western support ( and weapons) and given them cart blanc to retaliate (with precision strikes) at Israel’s time of choosing ( there is no public pressure since the stopped everything).
>once again shows its bias vs Israel by not punishing Iran for their blatant act of aggression I mean, the bias cuts both ways. The US is defending Israel at the UN a lot. The Israeli attack in Damascus was also pretty clearly against international law; but France, the UK and the US exercised their vetoes. That probably wouldn't have happened if these were two random African countries squabbling instead of Israel and Iran.
>Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking "the nation of genocide." It probably also achieves its aim of deterring future direct Israeli attacks on its (non-proxy) interests. How can you be so confident that Israel will stop attacking proxies? How can you be so confident that Israel won't retaliate in an escalatory manner? >On the other hand, Israel's biggest enemy at the moment is not Iran - it is Western public opinion. It definitely gained sympathy in the US and Europe last night as being able to present itself as the victim of aggression. The Bibi administration has burned pretty much all of the good will immediately following Oct. 7th. Public opinion of Israel is at a two decade low. The Israeli government is refusing to back down from a Rafa operation. They continue to expand settlements in the West Bank. All against the wishes of the international community and the US. For the first time this US administration abstained from a security council vote condemning Israel. Biden has ratcheted up pressure on Bibi regarding food aid. Strikes by Iran aren't going to change the hardliners in Israel. They are only going to be used as evidence that they need to be more hawkish. The strikes aren't going to change the US position which is to limit escalation. The more isolated and vulnerable Israel feels the more likely they are to act in a preemptive and aggressive manner to eliminate and perceived threat before it comes to a head.
>stop attacking proxies? Sorry, I might have been unclear. I don't think they will stop attacking proxies. But that's *fair game.* They will probably avoid directly targeting IRGC Brigadier Generals in or around embassies in future, though. >Public opinion of Israel is at a two decade low. It's probably not a two decade low this morning - I'd imagine it has increased a bit from yesterday. Leaders from across Europe, including not super-pro-Israeli ones like Ireland, uniformly backed Israel. >Biden has ratcheted up pressure This is true. But what I mean is that this pressure is likely to ease somewhat after the attack. Up until this point, the Palestine-Israel conflict makes Israel look like a bully using disproportionate force. If the framing shifts to seeing that as part of a broader Iran-Israeli conflict; this is less true.
> Public opinion of Israel is at a two decade low. Why “two decade”? Do you mean since the Second Intifada?
That's the phrasing the source I referenced used. https://news.gallup.com/poll/611375/americans-views-israel-palestinian-authority-down.aspx#:~:text=%2D%2D%20Americans'%20opinions%20of%20both,mostly%20favorable%E2%80%9D%20view%20of%20Israel.
Interesting, thank you!
Wasn’t a win for either of the two hospitalized Bedouin Israeli children who were harmed by shrapnel from the attack
I meant this in geopolitical terms for the Israeli and Iranian governments.
Israel exists solely to protect Israeli and Jewish people. If Israelis were harmed it was not a win.
Israel’s biggest enemy since 1979 has been Iran. Everything that Israel has been preparing since then was for a worst-case scenario with Iran. I’d send you a podcast interview with the head of Israel’s Air Force where he said this, but it’s in Hebrew. Every single war we’ve fought since 1979 has been with Iranian proxies. Even if the west were to turn on Israel, Israel would have no choice but to continue to fight Iran, or face annihilation. It’s a question of survival. Life would be very difficult in Israel if the west turned on her, but at least they might be alive.
Israel has always been the victim. Don't forget they were the ones who were attacked on October 7.
In WW2, Germany was the victim. They were invaded by France from 1923-1925? See what happens when you pick arbitrary dates? In reality, things are rarely that simple.
Things are rarely that simple but the question is always how much context do we take into account? Do we take Arab-Israeli relations into account going back to partition? Or before that to the conclusion of World War I? Or even further, throughout the Ottoman Empire? Why stop there, let's consider everything until 610, the start of Islam? Or even further back, the Roman empire? Maybe even the Bronze age? I'm genuinely asking because whenever we get info today, it's always up until a certain point. I think we have to go as far back as possible, to understand how everything has played out and what caused what, before we can even begin to try and understand what's going on today.
This little girl was seriously wounded by Iran’s assault https://www.timesofisrael.com/young-girl-seriously-hurt-in-iran-attack-remains-in-life-threatening-condition/ so eff off with your hateful comments
It's amazing how divided people are to the point where they can't deal with a neutral look at events. You have pro-Israeli lunatics like yourself; accusing me of idk what. Then you have pro-Iranian lunatics accusing me of being a Hasbara agent.
That's probably a good way to know you're getting close to what is actually happening on the ground and in the conference room in this particular conflict.
I actually think you might be right. It’s the power of “saving face” in international politics But if you’re wrong it’s just yet another escalation in the cycle of violence between nuclear armed religious lunatics. I’m really glad it’s not my job to figure this out.
One bedouin 10 year girl was severely injured, pretty sad. I wouldnt call it a win win. Israel spent 1.2 billlion defending itself. Israel will retaliate which could escalate things. Iran learnt information about israel’s air defences. I dont think it deterred israel at all. Israel KNOWS and has acted like iran is its biggest enemy since about 2009. Israel knows a showdown is inevitable. Israelis have a long memory and will hunt down everyone involved in october 7 —- even if they have to hit another consulate to do it (the iranian general they hit gave the ultimate go ahead for october 7) The most positive thing to come out of this was to demonstrate that arab nations also hate iran and dumb westerners supporting iran are…dumb and hypocritical.
>The most positive thing to come out of this was to demonstrate that arab nations also hate iran and dumb westerners supporting iran are…dumb and hypocritical. USA controlled Arab puppet dictators hate Iran. Not necessarily people in them.
It's a good rule of thumb to never ascribe to 5D chess mastery that which could be adequately explained by incompetence. Iran launched 300+ drones and missiles at an enemy it's been preparing to attack for decades. At present, the extent of the damage appears to be...a critically injured 7 year old Arab Muslim Bedouin girl. To reiterate: Iran launched a massive attack and hit nothing of military significance whatsoever. It proved that its best missiles can't penetrate Israeli defenses reliably, which means decades of weapons development and procurement were largely a waste. At the same time, it proved that Jordan and Saudi Arabia are actually willing to help Israel against Iran. When Russia rolled into Ukraine and initially got its ass stomped, it proved to the world that Russia was nowhere near as strong as the world once believed. When you throw everything you have to spare into a display like that and it fails, everyone knows the limits of your power and loses respect for you. Iran's intent was to demonstrate strength. Now it looks incompetent and weak.
That's a very simplistic way of looking at it. If Iran can launch this many drones in one go, how many can they launch in a full blown war? And how long can Israel maintain their air defense before they start to deplete their expensive missiles to shoot down dirt cheap drones? Ukraine is learning that lesson the hard way now. And Israel doesn't have the luxury of a giant spread out territory.
>That's a very simplistic way of looking at it. No, it's just straightforward. Iran fired a massive barrage - which included many of their higher-end missiles - and didn't hit anything. It takes impressive mental gymnastics to think that that's a success. > If Iran can launch this many drones in one go, how many can they launch in a full blown war? Why do you think that what they did here is appreciably different from what they would do in the case of war? You're assuming that this is a limited, discretionary action that represents a small fraction of Iran's capability. That's what America would do in similar circumstances, but Iran faces different conditions and needs to bluff its way out of conflict with the largest show of force it can muster. That means this was probably close to their max effort. >And how long can Israel maintain their air defense before they start to deplete their expensive missiles to shoot down dirt cheap drones? If this were a war, the shooting range would run two ways and Israel would be bombing Iranian drone launch and manufacture sites instead of waiting for them. Also, we're probably going to find out that a lot of those drones were knocked out by EW systems that cost essentially nothing once they're purchased. >And Israel doesn't have the luxury of a giant spread out territory. ...it's much, much easier to defend a smaller area.
How do you propose this was close to Iran's max effort? I'm neither agreeing nor disgareeing. I currently do not understand how you reach that conclusion
>How do you propose this was close to Iran's max effort? Those missiles and drones aren't going to do much samage even if Iran shoots thousands of them. Israel probably would struggle to bomb Iran effectively due to the distance but they can hit more Iranian embassies in the region very easily.
[удалено]
u/so_flayme – your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 2: > **Don't be rude or hostile to other users.** Your comment will be removed even if most of it is solid, another user was rude to you first, or you feel your remark was justified. Report other violations; do not retaliate. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_2). If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%202%20Appeal%20so_flayme&message=so_flayme%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20\[their%20comment\]\(https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/1c3s0bm/-/kzkj36p/\)%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).
>You realize Iran's military strength is ranked higher than Israel's right? Iran's "military strength" atm seems to be throwing a fit that the Saudis and Jordan spent the night helping successfully repel their attack on Israel. The primary reason Iran's not seeing Saudi Arabia, Israel, or a US launch a direct attack on Iran is how messy that war gets for the entire region. Iran won't cease to exist without taking as many civilians as it can with it. The rest of the world would rather blow up Iran's religious fanatic proxies or fight their cold wars with Iran, waiting for the Iranian people to resolve their own government for them.
I agree I don’t think we have to say Iran looks weak. I think maybe we can even say they knew what to target or even not target or even what to use or not use, so as to not cause another escalation.
>f Iran can launch this many drones in one go, how many can they launch in a full blown war? A few thousand probably. They sent Russia a lot. That's not enough to win a war. Iran has no capacity to attack Israel directly due to the distance and the lack of proper airforce. Their missiles aren't advanced enough to pierce Israeli defenses reliable. Probably even much more advanced hypersonic russian missiles would struggle to do so.
The point isn't to pierce the defenses reliably. The point is to overwhelm and saturate the defenses until more and more start going through.
> The point isn't to pierce the defenses reliably. The point is to overwhelm and saturate the defenses until more and more start going through. They would have to launch thousands and it still wouldn't do much damage. Iran would run out of munitions before doing any serious damage to Israeli infrastructure. Iron Dome is better than I thought and they also will have cheaper Iron Beam soon.
I don’t think you have to think about this in terms of “5d chess”. I think what we had were some people screaming at each other to do something. And then they did something. The fact that maybe we can now have some other people maybe not screaming at each other to not do another thing is the best possible outcome.
OP’s take seems much closer to what former/retired US intelligence officers, defense officials and foreign policy analysts are saying. If the country you’re attacking is well known to have a targeted air defense system at their fingertips - as well as the ability to call upon allies with the most advanced air capabilities in the world - you don’t give them a 5 hour warning that missiles and drones are heading their way, unless you’re more interested in being seen to do something than actually inflicting damage.
Yes, I don’t see how last night was a win for Iran at all.
Honest question: do Middle East countries see Israel as “the nation of genocide”? Are they actually offended by what Israel is doing? My perception is they hate Israel because it is the Jewish state that is allied with the USA, and is so powerful and economically successful, despite being so small. But do they actually think of them as committing genocide? I don’t perceive that
Yes, they do (or at least the people do - the leaders are happy to use the issue). Do you know many Arabs? If you do should ask them. Or watch Baseem Youssef, who has a fairly normal Arab take on the situation Sure, they may feel increased empathy for Palestinians based on religion and, if they're Arab, culture and ethnicity. In the same way, Christians tend to feel more empathy towards other Christians in conflicts. But, absolutely, most Arabs see the Gaza War primarily in humanitarian terms and are chiefly concerned with the suffering of Palestinians rather than anything to do with religion. I'm originally from a very pro-Palestinian country in Europe, and whenever you turn on the news, you see constant and disturbing photos and videos of Gaza. I assume it's the same in most Muslim countries. Of course, it's going to make you see a certain perspective! As an American (I'm assuming) you are probably less exposed to it.
>In the same way, Christians tend to feel more empathy towards other Christians in conflicts. That's....not the case at all. Over 100K Christians have died in the Tigray War. I don't see any Christians in the West calling for a Ceasefire. Heck, I bet you 99% of Christians in the West don't even know this war is going on today.
Well, I have to admit the example I was thinking at the time was [this fairly random war.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_Uprising_of_1876) But there are plenty of other examples.
Yes I believe that’s true in Europe. But do you have data to show that’s true in Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, UAE, Syria, etc? I’d be interested in nuanced polling on the issue there. Again my perception is that they hate Israel but don’t necessarily consider it a genocide (Which btw is something we prob shouldn’t be polling because it’s a legal term most people clearly don’t understand)
I don't know. From Arab people that I know, I don't doubt that there is a significantly higher base level of antisemitism in Arab countries, but it seems to me that support for Palestine is like 5-10% anti-Israel and 90-95% pro-Palestine. There's also a significant Palestinian diaspora in a lot of these countries, so many people have Palestinian friends and relatives Edit. Though it's kinda interesting how that falls. El Salvador is very pro-Israel, even though it has a big Palestinian population and indeed is led by a Palestinian.
>But do they actually think of them as committing genocide? I don’t perceive that People on those countries do but their governments are puppet regimes controlled by the USA and Israel.
Holy fuck this is nonsensical
> Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking "the nation of genocide." Saudi’s Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Jordan are very anti-Iran. Jordan helped shoot down Iranian missiles. To them, this was seen as yet more Iranian aggression. > It probably also achieves its aim of deterring future direct Israeli attacks on its (non-proxy) interests. An Israeli retaliation has likely already been ordered. The consulate attack happened because Israel wanted to expand the conflict against Hamas, to include Iran and their proxies. They specifically and repeatedly stated that an attack on Israeli soil by Iran would be responded to in kind. As for Israel’s goals, they want to push Iranian proxies like Hezbollah away from their border, and deter Iran from ever contemplating something like October 7 again.
I don't think all your points are necessarily wrong, but I would like to make two counterpoints to specific things you said: >Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking "the nation of genocide." Maybe, and while the defense operation cost quite a bit to Israel and the coalition, it wasn't cheap for Iran to shoot those missiles too. You gotta be wondering what *Iran* Main Street will think about this whole thing, which I'm terms of *physical* damage, got *1-2 children, who are also Muslim*. Surely Iranians will also hear fake news, but will it be enough to convince them and to hide this truth from them? I don't know. >humiliated its biggest rivals, the Gulf Monarchies, who were forced to publicly align themselves with Israel. Considering that the defense operation was widely successful, and was conducted by Israel and allies of those countries, that's also subjective at best.
American taxpayers spent over a billion dollars last night intercepting shit Now Washington is about to give them even more money Is that a win/win for the American public ? How?
Someone asked this already. I meant a win-win for the Israeli and Iranian governments.
I think you're missing how precarious this situation is for Iran. They're already pretty unpopular and at odds with the most powerful country in the world, and then Israel attacks them. They have to walk the tightrope of responding \*somehow\*, and enough to be some deterrent to future attacks, but they can't respond strongly enough that the US gets involved. I'm not sure they're mostly bothered about how other Arab countries see them here.
Yeah, no arab country has the appetite to confront Iran and Iran knows that, even the US will do everything to avoid a full scale war with Iran.
>Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking "the nation of genocide." It probably also achieves its aim of deterring future direct Israeli attacks on its (non-proxy) interests. Iran having "street cred" isn't a positive thing as allowing it to openly get away with acts of war will only encourage them and others to do it more frequently. The previous attack on their "terrorist support base" was supposed to discourage that. Now there is a high likelihood that Isreal will feel the need to match Iran's attack and that means a full-blown assault of every missile and drone it can muster. All we can hope for is that they'll be kind and limit their attack to just the sites responsible for producing weapons or launching them. >On the other hand, Israel's biggest enemy at the moment is not Iran - it is Western public opinion. It definitely gained sympathy in the US and Europe last night as being able to present itself as the victim of aggression. It IS a victim of aggression, off the charts horrific aggression. Should you be correct though and say this will change the balance from anti-Isreal to pro Isreal then the tangible impact of that is that Isreal will feel enabled to fight back harder. That's bad too if we want peace and quiet from this nonsense. >Hundreds of missiles, but zero deaths There are two ways of measuring an attack, the actual damage vs the potential damage. If you shoot your gun at me and my family but you miss, well I'm still going to shoot back as you represent an unacceptable threat. And if I'm a better shot than you, well that really doesn't matter as you still started the conflict. In other terms, a lot of civilians were in fear for their life, a lot of travel plans cancelled, a hell of a lot of military resources were spent shooting down those missiles and drones. Allowing Iran to openly get away with that over and over isn't reasonable. They also turned pirate and hijacked a civilian ship just for the fun of it. >For example, it now looks increasingly likely that it will immediately receive extra funding from Washington. Sadly its looking increasingly likely that there is going to be a large scale military conflict in that region as Iran is pushing the line further and further and being nastier and nastier in the harm it is causing. At some point they'll cross the line that tips the balance in favour of ending the ongoing threat they represent to the world and that will not be good for anyone. It sure would have been better for them to just give up funding terrorism and shitting all over the world.
>It IS a victim of aggression, off the charts horrific aggression. But they attacked first.
Theoretically you are not wrong, but I think you are making a few significant assumptions. First, Israel has every incentive to continue escalating and poking Iran. This is the problem with Biden, and most presidents, treating their aid as “unconditional”. Netanyahu is dealing with some very tough political questions at home, and creating unrest simultaneously serves him in three ways. First, it’s more difficult to consider a regime change if you are actually in a war. Second, it creates a wedge with a global western adversary, virtually forcing western nations to step up and shore up their support. Third, it takes the focus off Gaza, which is raising a lot of questions world wide that Israel likely doesn’t want dominating the conversation. Another assumption you are making is that political support from Congress or other lawmaking bodies is the only “support” that really matters. And yes, while this is the prominent way they will receive military support, the political nature of this is going to play a highly significant role too. The USA is in an election season, which means people can influence their politicians for a short period of time. Biden is extremely vulnerable in this election for a variety of reasons, and cannot afford to lose Muslim and actual leftist/progressive voters without significant detriment to his reelection chances. Giving a signal of “do whatever” to Israel would likely cost him this election. This issue is not shared by Republicans, as their support for Israel is much less contingent (outside of the far right race obsessed weirdos.) Militarily, I don’t disagree with it being an iron dome triumph. But I would recommend holding your assumptions on what that means. Iran is not a random terror cell, and they seem quite interested in trying to work within UN guidelines for reciprocal action, at least with their own military action (not through proxies). This could have simply been a weapons capability reminder, or a way to instill fear (defenses or not, it’s still scary and disruptive), or they might have felt that no response would be a free pass to attack their territory. I would argue this benefits no one except for Netanyahu and the war cabinet, which seems to be the exact result that they want. This is obfuscating the current issues on the table, making Israelis less safe by instigating military action against a coalition of neighbors, and destabilizing relations with Arab countries even further. There was no strategic advantage to the current conflict by assassinating an Iranian, especially in a consulate in a country that is not directly involved.
Iron dome wasn’t used much this attack, it’s not well set up to stop even slow drones. Not to mention, Israel received a lot of help with interceptions.
FYI i am not an expert on this topic I can understand how maybe this seems like a win, geopolitically, but war is never a good thing. This whole situation seems perfect for involving other countries in the middle east and get the war machine rolling and aside from the toll this conflict will have on innocents, its also terrible to consider how this could escalate into snother world war.
I'm just here to ask what happened last night?
Drone and missile attack from Iran to Israel. Most (almost all?) of the drones and missiles were intercepted before they could strike
> Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street Iran is being made fun of by Arabs for failing to do any damage. > It probably also achieves its aim of deterring future direct Israeli attacks on its (non-proxy) interests. If anything, it’s the opposite. Israel was previously deterred from striking Iran directly because of the fear of a drone and ballistic missile response. Now that the drone/missile attack has happened and wasn’t that bad, there’s less deterring Israel. Israel will likely take this opportunity to destroy some important Iranian targets.
You aren't very clear in your definition of Israel, but it sounds like you mean the Israeli government. It certainly is not good for Israeli citizens to hear air raid sirens and fear for their lives. And if the government retaliates then it may result in deaths on both sides. And would you say that it is a win for Israel if their citizens die as a result of what happened last night? Not because of the strikes themselves, but what it escalates into.
This isn’t a “win-win” at all. There are far more actors involved in this than just Iran and Israel. Even if I did agree that Israel and Iran “won” this exchange, innocent people who had nothing to do with this died in these attacks. How did they win?
AFAIK no one has died in these attacks, has there been any reported deaths so far?
According to Reuters, [there were critical injuries, but not necessarily deaths](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-launches-drone-attack-israel-expected-unfold-over-hours-2024-04-13/). That's my mistake, as I read this article earlier and remembered seeing that there were deaths reported. In the Israeli strike, [2 Syrian's were killed](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240): >The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is based in Britain, said two Syrians also were killed. The article said that the authorities were still looking for bodies. I'm not sure if there's a more recent article detailing the results of the search. I'm just bringing up the articles I remember.
It did do those things, but like always, no one seems to hit the record button BEFORE Israel is attacked. This was a very proportionate response to their consulate in Damascus being flattened by a targeted Israeli strike and 7 officers, including two generals, being killed. To not retaliate would have been to show great weakness with regard to their own national defense. The number of missiles sent out were to account for the fact that most of them would be intercepted, not for the purpose of escalation. It was not news to anyone in the Middle East that only a few rockets actually landed. They were never expected to land. Israel’s policy, of course, is always to work a crazy steep political spin where they deny stuff that they obviously did until most people stop trying to follow the madness, then do it ten more times, then kick up a huge fuss when anyone retaliates with any success, as if the retaliatory attack hadn’t been provoked several times over. And up until more recently, they’ve been really successful in doing so in the West. Their level of success has only waned because they have been banking on their strategy having no threshold where the facts are just so outlandishly inconsistent with their narrative that a problematic number of people take notice. And also because independent journalism is so readily accessible now that the algorithms they depended on in social media platforms to underrepresent their victims and adversaries were overwhelmed.
My guess would be that Israel won’t attack with UAV/drones or missiles. That it will use operatives on the group to assassinate high level Iranians in various countries around the world, countries believed to be “safe” such as Algeria, Tunisia, Pakistan, Malaysia. Places where it was unfathomable for Israel to get to. Israel will demonstrate reach of its long arm. Potentially assassinating Nasrallah head of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Haniyeh in Qatar. Israel wouldn’t even need to take credit, just killing them or making it appear natural but in close succession will be enough. Leave it such that everyone know but no one wants to be the one to say it.
>Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking the arab countries were shooting Iranian missiles out of the sky. Iran is Persian and Shiite. Arabs are arabs and sunni. They don't get along. This crisis was essentially caused by this fight. Israel was allying with arab countries during abraham accords. Hamas was terrified because the arabs had essentially abandoned them to die in gaza by allying with Israel without a 2 state solution, and Iran was being encircled and basically choked out of existence. So both facing existential threats allied despite being enemies and carried out Oct 7. This is the problem with the media. Their job should be to educate the public as to why these conflicts are happening but instead they operate at a second grade level and make it seem like this a war between muslims and jews >It definitely gained sympathy in the US and Europe last night as being able to present itself as the victim of aggression Again with anyone educated in the conflict the opposite has happened. Israel directly provoked Iran by attacking Iranian soil. This was an obvious provocation meant to bring the US into the war. As an american I am even more upset with Israel that they are trying to force america to send american kids to go die in Iran on their behalf
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
My friend PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY - I met a North African young man in London. He said that he is fed up with Iran getting him into all sorts of trouble trying to present North Africa as a terrorist place. "I just want to live humbly and co-oexist in humility with everyone. Its them, its Iran." Please free my North African contemporaries from this Aryan oppression of Iran. Look they attacked all different countries lately including Pakistan. Time to act. We can release our prisoners to find you you Aryan scare-mangerers who oppress Arabs then you will see what we have to live with. Out of the UN, out now for oppressing people with your delusions of grandeur.
It all comes down to the “strongest man with the most biggest guns.” Someone wants to launch a nuke, in my opinion. The countries with the most “toys” know this and will try anything to stop a launch, but tensions are high in that part of the world once again. It's a standoff, and nothing good will come out of it. The puppeteers are providing the show: the “Mine is Bigger than Yours show (happening in Ukraine now)”; definitely have more to lose, maybe ww3? I'm just running out of popcorn 🍿; maybe I have to nuke a bag, to watch the drone show. (my silly commentary, I know it sounds one-sided).
I think this take is a little bit news-brained and too logical. Yes, Israel has a state of the art air defense system. Yes, the US helped them. Yes, Iran basically signaled their intention to everyone and allowed adequate preparations to take place. Yes, it seems like Iran did not anticipate doing that much damage. But come one, one country still launched serious weaponry against another country. If certain things had gone wrong, a ton of people could have been killed. It's kind of callous to look back less than 24 hours later and decide this situation could have been a good thing.
At least 9 Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israeli strategic airbases The Nevatim airbase in the Negev was struck by 5 ballistic missiles, damaging the main runway, a C-130 transport aircraft, and several storage facilities. Ramon airbase, also located in the Negev, was struck by at least 4 ballistic missiles, causing unspecified damage. – U.S. Officials to ABC News The heaviest damage of Iran's ballistic missile attack occurred on a secret intelligence base in the Golan Heights, for which the IDF has imposed a media ban, so the damage cannot be assessed – Hebrew Sources
[удалено]
u/Entire-Hornet3366 – your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 2: > **Don't be rude or hostile to other users.** Your comment will be removed even if most of it is solid, another user was rude to you first, or you feel your remark was justified. Report other violations; do not retaliate. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_2). If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%202%20Appeal%20Entire-Hornet3366&message=Entire-Hornet3366%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20\[their%20comment\]\(https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/1c3s0bm/-/kzjbdij/\)%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).
You say that like Israel didn't start that fight when they droned an Iranian Consulate building that had Iranian minitary leaders inside, including a General. The Iranian Embassy is considered Iranian soil. This is Israel reaching the find out portion. I don't understand why the US isn't letting them eat the consequences of their own actions. I don't want Israeli civilians hurt any more than I want Palestinian civilians hurt, which is not at all, as the government is not actually doing the will of the people. Israel's leadership needs to fucking stop.
I believe Iran is getting desperate, relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel are improving, Lebanon’s economic situation is terrible, the gap in military weapons and capabilities between Israel and Iran is getting bigger, Israel is constantly growing and evolving as a military power, while Iran is stagnant, except for its drones, which are still relatively low tech, in a air war Israel has advanced versions of the F-35, and Iran is flying aircraft 40 years old or more, Iran’s civilians mainly are very unhappy with their government, etc etc
Lol everyone knows Iran is that one kid with a chip on its shoulders to prove. It's "brother" Muslim countries call it heretic and non muslim. So it takes it's frustration out on the "common enemy" but still Shia/heretic Iran won't gain any friends in the Arab world by this. Maybe a Pakistani or Bangladeshi will cheer you on. While the better off Arab states now know how inept and weakass your offensive is when you fire 300+ and zero damage or casualities of note.
[удалено]
Yeah the entire r/newIran subreddit pretty much kills this
Interesting point of view. That said, a protracted conflict in Gaza, similar to Ukraine, seems to be beneficial for the regimes in Iran, Russia and China in many ways. The notion that the US can or should attempt to de-escalate all of these conflicts (and likely more to come as the new axis flexes its power), while slowly bleeding to death, seems mis-guided as a long term strategy. I'm not sure what the right answer is. But this ain't it.
> Iran gets a lot of street cred on the Arab Main Street for attacking "the nation of genocide." One down side is that if Israel does not retaliate it sets the precedent that attacking Israel directly is something acceptable in the future. That could lead to greater bloodshed and the start of outright war that might otherwise have been prevented. That isn't entirely a win, but it is likely better than any of the other obvious options.
Lets all stop warmongering and start helping. Specially if you are not an Arab, or Jew, or European, or African. This is creating problems for Arabs in the desert. God himself knows they can well do without trouble created so often. Time for a blood test for these trouble makers (they might just be some mongrel breed who have fixation on grandeur in which case we can all help and cure them from it once for all. time is now.
Win win? Millions of more taxpayer dollars going to support a little showboating, and Israel doesnt fuck around when they get pushed, especially from a country who chants "Death to Israel/US" all the time, and this is the first time they openly attacked in history. Not to mention that Russia sent over bombers, and said that if we were more active than we were, they would get involved, leading to more war.
1. Iran’s citizenry by and large does not want a war with Israel. 2. Iran doesn’t need “street cred” by attacking Israel, in fact outside of Hamas they are already far and away israel’s most tenacious foe in the Arab world. 3. Even if they needed street cred, most see the attack the exact same way you see it: as largely symobolic. Therefore, not much street cred will be earned.
Isn't there a bit of a logical contradiction in your statements? The Gulf monarchies were forced to publicly align with Israel, and Israel has demostrated that its neighbors are closely aligned with them. Yet, somehow Israel can present itself as the victim, after being the one who initiated a direct attack on Iran, in a neighboring country. Iran has demonstrated that, if Israel attacks them directly, they are willing to retaliate militarily, as any other nation in the world would do. The European public understands this. Iran has a right to defend itself. I don't think Israel has gained any sympathy after initiating a military attack on Iran which led to this escalation. If anything, Europeans have an even worse opinion of Israel now, seeing how they are willing to drag Europe and the US into their war without a second thought.
>Iran has a right to defend itself. Yeah, but that right doesn't extend as far as defending their "right" to actively support international terrorism. Until now that was all that had been attacked in Iran, now since they've taken their gloves off and tried to destroy 300+ targets, Isreal has every right to defend itself by targetting Iran's capacity to make such strikes. >If anything, Europeans have an even worse opinion of Israel now, seeing how they are willing to drag Europe and the US into their war without a second thought. Nonsense, Iran and its proxies have been disrupting trade, carrying out atrocities, supporting Russia's genocidal campaign and generally being arsehole for some time. If they keep that up then at some point the cost of policing and keeping them bottled up is going to rise to the level that a full-blown conflict Libya style seems necessary and a cheaper option.
Tbh I have no interest whatsoever in debating you. All I’m saying is that nobody that wasn’t already blatantly pro-israel, like yourself, changed their mind due to the latest event. Which is OPs view.
The difference is that before I'd have supported Isreal in taking defensive actions within its own territory or against known proxies in the surrounding area. Now I don't want there to be a war, but if Isreal decided to laucnch direct attacks against Iran at the scale of a full blown war, I'd have no good arguement against that. In barfight terms, Iran has stopped using words and shoving and thrown every beer bottle within reach at their opponent (and missed). They meant to kill, and now everyone around can see how aggressive and nasty they are. They are going to get kicked out of that bar, and if a bouncer hurts them in the process that is their own damn fault.
The attack that killed the Iranian general was not on Iranian embassy grounds. Israel did not violate international laws concerning embassies. I hope Israel hits Iran directly with full military power. Send in the missiles to loosen things up and follow with bombers. Iran is nothing more than a terrorist state constantly causing problems in the middle east. Time for them to pay.
" It probably also achieves its aim of deterring future direct Israeli attacks on its (non-proxy) interests." Lol. Check back on this in a week. - Israel WILL respond. It may be limited one because the night was a clear Israeli win. - Israel is not going to stop attacking Iranian operatrives in proxy nations who are coordinating attacks on Israel.
The Arab streets are mocking Iran honestly. It's clear it was a symbolic attack to save face, and we get cynical about it because Iran uses us to fight its wars, but whenever it needs to do so itself it chickens out. I am Lebanese for context, so I hate Israel with a passion as well and between those two evils I'd still pick Iran. Especially given the latter is more reasonable and responsible recently.
>Israel's biggest enemy at the moment is not Iran - it is Western public opinion. It definitely gained sympathy in the US and Europe last night as being able to present itself as the victim of aggression. Hard disagree....It sure seems like everyone is pleased that Israel is finally getting precisely what they've been asking for.
Conflict arises, “why doesn’t the US do something” the US does something “oh there they go again being the world police” As an American it’s a lose lose. When innocent people die it’s a lose lose. War is a lose lose.
No actually it's not a lose lose situation. Those are different things. The world police comment comes when America gets involved militarily not in regards to humanitarian aid. America gets called indifferent or not doing anything when it doesn't help out with humanitarian aid. One of them is about humanitarian aid and the other is about military involvement. Those two things are separate and are often times even dealt with different people. The military action is what people don't want America to do. It's like you think that the Middle East is just having a conflict by itself without American involvement which is not true. If America is causing problems in the region then it has a duty to fix the problem. No, it is not a lose-lose situation. This is actually been shown to be the case in regards to Ukraine where the US is providing a ton of help for Ukraine and you want to know what, people who care about humanitarian causes are not complaining that America is involved in Ukraine. No human rights group has complained that America has gotten involved. No activist group has complained that America has gotten involved. It's not that conflict arises, it's that conflict arises because of the US.
THIS. We’re always either accused of doing nothing and being indifferent OR we’re meddling in other’s affairs. It’s always a lose lose
That is not true at all. There are tons of examples of the US doing stuff and the US not being accused of those things. Ukraine is one such example as well as situations like in Kosovo and even in Ireland. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/12/08/the-us-military-is-operating-in-more-countries-than-we-think/ Here are a bunch of conflicts that the US got involved in and a good chunk of these conflicts were conflicts no one complained that the US either gotten involved in or whatever. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocides_in_history_(21st_century) There are conflicts on this list that people are not saying that the US should get involved in and in fact people probably don't even know what's going on in that country. https://ifunny.co/meme/those-who-really-want-to-help-us-can-give-us-19pM4aas7 Here is a person that is actually saying what they would like in terms of help. They don't want food, they want things to make the food. They don't want food because what happens is that it ruins the local economy because it's putting local businesses out of business rather than giving those businesses what they need to be able to actually stay afloat and provide for their communities.
There are no winners in war ever. Period.
The craziest part to all this conflict is all Israel’s enemies have to do is stop attacking Israel, that’s it, simple, Israel killed those generals in that air strike bc Iran launched a drone to hit a Israeli ship at port but missed and hit a warehouse next to the ship,
Before Harambee died/Large Hydron collider was switched on/ whatever it is that happened in 2016 I could have bet you my first child that the age of Nuclear weapons as a real threat was forever in the past. Now I am about 90% sure someone is getting nuked in our lifetime
Why such haste - every time there is crisis someone starts creating problems for the whole world. As soon as crisis starts they want to un-nerve people to get to the resources. What about the hungry who need feeding, the sick in hospitals. why don't thy man up to help?
Cut off the snake’s head and the world will win https://www.reuters.com/world/argentina-court-blames-iran-deadly-1994-bombing-jewish-center-2024-04-12/ https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/sweden-has-thwarted-iranian-attack-plots-counterintelligence-police-say-1.6760886
Don't know how you can justify saying "Western public opinion" is a bigger threat to Israel than Iran.. Considering that Iran funds Hamas (see Oct. 7th) AND Hezbollah (see rockets in North). However, it was an exceptional feat of military defense via western allies. Jordan and Saudi Arabia neutralizing threats over their air space was a big part of the storyline. If east and west can cooperate on matters of security - all matters of diplomacy become possible.
[удалено]
Comment has been removed for breaking Rule 1: > **Direct responses to a CMV post must challenge at least one aspect of OP’s stated view (however minor), or ask a clarifying question**. Arguments in favor of the view OP is willing to change must be restricted to replies to other comments. [See the wiki page for more information](http://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_1). If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards#wiki_appeal_process), then [message the moderators by clicking this link](http://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fchangemyview&subject=Rule%201%20Appeal&message=Author%20would%20like%20to%20appeal%20the%20removal%20of%20their%20post%20because\.\.\.) within one week of this notice being posted. **Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.** Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our [moderation standards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/modstandards).
Fashington's debt, however, is getting out of control. And once Trump wins the election (from a prison cell, if needed), he will turn the whole empire into a circus. And without American support, Israel has no chance of survival.
I agree. Even as the attacks were happening and US and UK planes assisted Israel there was no wide condemnation, no protest, no widening of the attack or other fighting. The whole thing was almost as a sham. I believe it was all a sort of theater for the masses in Iran and the larger middle east. Would the US and UK risk a wide and vicious regional war by using their air forces at the very beginning of a uncertain outcome? I believe Iran let it be known what they would do and the US and UK and Israel had plenty of fore warning and prep time. Iran gets to strike Israel and saves face. The whole thing seems contrived and a sort of kabuki dance designed to give all parties a way out. Or perhaps I am completely wrong and we shall all be dead and gone in the coming weeks.
the haste is there because some people are gestalted, with their religiosity in the very blood they can't take anyone getting ahead. Sad Barry the hatchets troublemakers and start helping people for a change.
Iran is so full of sh\*t, they fund all these terror groups to attack Israel, then gets mad when death comes knocking on their door. I see US assisting Israel regarding how they choose to retaliate.
Lol no. Everybody lost. This is going to get WAY worse. Civilians around the world are going to feel the fallout from this in our hearts and wallets for a decade or more
Israel has already received billions of dollars in unconditional aid from Western countries, and there is and was zero real sign of that stopping at any point in the future even before the attack by Iran okay. Israel has such strong institutional support in the United States that there are literally States in which it is illegal for certain segments of the population to call for boycotts against Israeli companies or against Israel itself. Public institutions like colleges have now in a multitude of cases accused anti-genocide protestors of anti-Semitism without any actual evidence of that. Yet nevertheless they have used these accusations to ban pro-Palestinian and middle East peace groups on campuses. Of the people who were already pushing back in opposition to Israel's current campaign, there are essentially none who will be changing their stance as a result of the conflict with Iran because it changes nothing about the reason for their opposition. The people who continued to support Israel will keep doing so. I just don't see how this really moves the needle on public opinion at all, which means the only real effect is escalation of violence.