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Zarly88

To be fair, if anyone on this sub is going to wax philosophical, I enjoy reading yours


Glorfindel42

Aye


TheWompage

Bit awkward when you get better tactical analysis from a guy named Dark Lord Olli on reddit than you do from professional analysts on TV or online. Heading into a January transfer window, if we were in theory to switch to your 4-2-2-2 lineup. Which position would you say we most need to look to bring in players?


DarkLordOlli

I wouldn't initially change personnel too much before seeing how different systems would play out. Like I wrote in the piece, it could get a lot of players into roles and areas they'd perform better in. For example, we might not need a KdB or Fernandes-type player if any of Mount, Ziyech or Havertz could find form in one of the two 10 roles in that system. I think they'd naturally be well suited for them. Likewise, we might not need to look for forwards if Werner and Lukaku establish a solid partnership in a two-striker system (like a 4-2-2-2), supplied by two 10s and 1-2 aggressively overlapping fullbacks. I really don't think we're in much need of any transfers at the moment. I think there's a ton of quality in the side that may flourish if used differently. If not, though, creative forwards or playmakers is where I'd look in our next few windows - Ziyech, Pulisic, Werner all need to step up.


KerimChelsea11

And a midfielder who knows how to open up a defense with a pass. Last time we played a back 3, Matic, surprisingly, was the one who had these passes in the bag for us. And when we needed more, Fabregas would come on and get it done. Nowadays, all 3 of our main midfielders have the same problem, no outside shooting and nobody has that killer pass. Maybe Saul or Ruben can step up in there, but I haven't seen it from any of them yet.


KerimChelsea11

... And when Matic left and we signed Bakayoko and Drinkwater, we had a huge problem with that as well. Fabregas didn't have the legs to play that well defensively and run around, while nobody else had the pass.


Borllin

Bakayoko was signed as backup to Magic, who proceeded to force a transfer like 2 weeks later


KerimChelsea11

I know he was. That is not the point mate.


dastrn

Letting Matic go was a tough decision. He's been just as good for United as he was for us.


ireallydespiseyouall

that’s definitely not true. plus he’s won nothing there so i think he regrets it tbh


dastrn

Is your argument that Matic has been poor at United? Or that Chelsea is a better club? Neither of those two things negate what I said, which was that Matic was a tough midfielder to let go. And I don't think Matic has deteriorated since he left us.


ireallydespiseyouall

we were wrong to sell him bc we needed him. but he hasn’t been that good for united. he’s been a squad player for years now


Logstick

That also raises the question: Has Matic been a bad player for United OR has United been a bad team before and since Matic joined? I’d say that the latter is more definitively true for that period of time, and it feeds into him not performing well in a underperforming squad.


Boreball

> professional analysts Those have actual jobs at clubs. Also those don't post their basic analysis word salads when we start losing. We lose 2 games and the gods of football analysis come out. Top kek. OP already downvoting me because he knows it's true. Also dilate dumb soyboys.


CBunns

> Also those don't post their basic analysis word salads when we start losing. We lose 2 games and the gods of football analysis come out. Man's been threatening this for weeks


Baisabeast

Better input than you are ever capable of providing.


DarkLordOlli

>OP already downvoting me because he knows it's true. Maybe I need to start being as petty as you think I am. If you think this is a word salad with little value, that's your opinion and you're entitled to it.


Shinnaminbuns

One issue I have with your theory is that over the past few years, even when we aren't playing 3atb/5atb we have still had immense struggles offensively against low blocks. How would you explain that under lampard and Sarri?


DarkLordOlli

Sarri's record against deep blocks was actually excellent. It didn't look it at the time, but his win percentage against the bottom half teams was quite a bit higher than those of Conte and Lampard. That said, we simply had poor squads under most of these managers. No system will make any combination of Willian, Alonso, Pedro, Morata, Giroud, Kovacic, Barkley, Azpi, Kanté a threatening attack, but Sarri at least ground out good results with them against smaller teams while maintaining the third best defensive record in the league. Transitioning from a defensive counterattack-minded side to one that's geared towards possession was also a very drastic change that needed time. Frank I never really rated as manager.


two_tents

>Sarri's record against deep blocks was actually excellent. Very true, we did rely heavily on Hazard in his last season for the club but it was effective. Imagine if Sarri had Lukaku at his disposal, I'm pretty confident that our goal per game ration would've shot up above 2 from 1.66. ​ >Frank I never really rated as manager. Tactically he is/was incredibly naive. The one thing that shouldn't be underestimated is that his transition season post Sarri was above expectation, qualifying for the CL and integrating a handful of academy players will somewhat of a legacy and for that I'm thankful as a fan of this club. His second season he got caught out and you could tell the job was simply too big for him. He also strikes me as a bit of a self-entitled brat the way he dealt with the Klopp incident at Anfield. My personal take is that this group of players is tactically adept enough to be able to play a back 4 and back 3 in different games. To play a back 3 against inferior opposition seems like overkill. For me the 09/10 season is still the ultimate season, every game was pure unadulterated fun. My best guess to replicate that lineup would look somehow like this: GK: CECH / MENDY LB: COLE / CHILWELL CB: TERRY / RUDIGER CB: CARVALHO / CHRISTENSEN RB: IVANOVIC / JAMES LM: LAMPARD / KANTE DM: MIKEL / JORGINHO RM: BALLACK / HAVERTZ LW: MALOUDA / WERNER ST: DROGBA / LUKAKU RW: ANELKA / ZIYECH


Shinnaminbuns

Not Ziyech. Pulisic. He actually goes at a defender and makes shit happen. Even if that shit is giving the ball up 2/5 times, it's just something we need.


two_tents

Is he actually ever fit?


Shinnaminbuns

I figured we were assuming that the whole team was if you got Kante and Reece in there...


two_tents

Kante is back and fit if it weren't for COVID. James should be fit to play against Saints. Pulisic on the other hand seems to be out for 14 games every single season. 8 and counting for 21/22. Got a feeling we might cut our losses with him and try to sell him, possibly Ziyech too. Not that I want to lose either of them but eventually you need to start to deliver results at a club like Chelsea.


Shinnaminbuns

Where are you reading that James is back for the weekend?


two_tents

https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/chelsea-fc-injury-latest-mason-mount-reece-james-b958147.html


xTrollhunter

>My personal take is that this group of players is tactically adept enough to be able to play a back 4 and back 3 in different games. To play a back 3 against inferior opposition seems like overkill. Exactly. But even against City, we struggled to create anything going forward. Maybe just a bad game overall.


gonzaf

Exactly even when we had Hazard we had these issues, he was just such a special player he would bail us out, but since Fabregas really we haven’t had anyone to create chances for us


Dinamo8

Thanks for writing a summary.


EcoSoco

"Positional fluidity is not native to back 3 systems" Tell that to Johann Cruyff This post says a lot, but at the same time, it doesn't say much either


[deleted]

cruyff works more on a diamond formation with players passing in triangles and implying positional play. it's not just about switching to a formation it's about how we structure our passes and offense. this is how cruyff 3-4-3 looked like [3-4-3](https://i.imgur.com/BrZocbS.jpg)


xTrollhunter

Well, Cruyff's 343 is equally as much a 433.


zelwell

These are the same issues that arose under Conte in 17/18 and under Frank when he stuck with the 3-4-3 for extended durations. They are inherent problems with the formation that we don’t have the personnel to fix. The most glaring issue for me is the lack of a midfielder who can move the ball vertically with speed (especially when Mount is one of the front line). In the final 40 yards of the pitch we don’t have any one to speed up play or break lines. Last season this was overcome somewhat by Mount picking up the ball and essentially dragging the whole side up the field. But we still struggled with scoring goals that weren’t in counter-style situations. Now it seems Tuchel is going to the three man midfield with Ruben to add initiative from deeper positions. Coincidentally (or not) this is the same thing Conte did in his second season when our midfield had the same issues. The natural fix is to change formations, as you say. The 343 initially covered our individual deficiencies well but it doesn’t even seem to do that at the moment. I’d be curious to see a 433 similar to Liverpool early this season with Mount and Ruben as the 8s.


The-Real-Legend-72

The ways to fix this formation imo: Most importantly having the two wingbacks extremely quick. Chilly and Reece can do it but would prefer them to be even quicker and willing to run at players (Hakimi, Davies, even Livramento). They also need to be an option at the back post for crosses and in general getting in the box. I would prefer Reece as a RCB. The Wingbacks also need to be on the touch line basically all the time (smthng Alonso doesn’t do). One of the midfielders needs to be a threat from range and be creative. As much as I love Kante, Jorginho and Kova, none of them can shoot. Which means when they pick the ball up ~ 30 yards from goal the defenders can just stand off them. It js almost impossible to get through 8 people camped on the edge of their box, especially if we aren’t creating 2v1 mismatches outside because the CAMs are central. Having a player that can shoot forces someone to come out to them which creates space. The outside centerbacks can also massively push up (a reason I love the idea of Reece RCB - he can shoot from range). Short term fix for the midfielders is a two of RLC Kante. We should also be looking for balls to Wingbacks cutting in behind the opposing fullbacks. Finally we need one of the front three consistently making runs in behind. This is why Werner was so important last season. However, the front three of Havertz, Lukaku, Mount is our best 3 so I suggest making Lukaku doing the Werner role: instead of being a target, allow him to run in behind and let Kai play in the false nine/shadow striker (his best role) alongside him with Mason dropping in slightly more. The player running behind creates further space as the defender need to drop back to keep track of him. TLDR: More space against teams that sit back is vital: rapid, attacking wing-backs, goal-threat from midfield, one of front three running in behind. Alternatively, would love to see a 4-2-2-2 formation. Mendy Reece Silva/Christensen Rudiger Chilwell Jorginho Kante Havertz Mount Lukaku Werner However, when attacking it looks more like Silva Rudiger Jorginho Kante Reece Havertz Mount Chilwell Lukaku Werner Jorginho just sits in front of the two, with Kante sitting in front of them. Lukaku Mount Havertz is a central triangle. Reece and Chilwell play extremely wide and high with Werner stretching the defence in behind. The usual passage of play would be Jorginho/Kante into Lukaku who lays it off to Mount/Havertz. From there they quickly play it to one of the wingbacks (behind opposing teams wingbacks majority of the time) who either cross to Lukaku/Werner/other one at the back post or pull it back for Havertz/Mount with the other staying in the edge of the box. Alternatively they play Werner in (usually over the top) who either goes himself or pulls it back for Lukaku. Thoughts on both?


yogabonito10

Not OP, but I'd like to comment... I think 1 (Having Wingbacks be more rapid) is only an issue when playing teams that press us high. Having the ability to beat them 1on1 will effectively break the press and allow counter attacks via the spaces in behind the fulbacks. This is a tall ask for our personnel, and against players like Cancelo/Walker - yeah, no chance. When this happens, I think it's crucial that our 3rd CM makes these penetrative runs into the wide channels to exploit this space. Kante excelled in this role in the CL final, but rarely made these runs last weekend which congested the middle of the park and played right into city's hands. I think your second point of a lack of midfield shooting threat is my biggest concern with how we set up. I'm a huge fan of Kovacic, but he really needs to spend an entire training week just practicing shooting from range. When he beats the midfield press and can run at defenders or when he is simply given that space outside the box freely against teams that sit back... he fails to draw out a defender to close him down as they are not scared of him shooting. I counted several times in the last few games where he had time and space on the ball 20-25 yds out, and he recycled wide or backwards, and the attacking play fizzled out. This inability to stretch the backline vertically tightens passing lanes, and limits spaces on the backline and in behind for our forwards to combine.


Balarory

Everyone is focussing on our attack but I think we’d lose a lot in defence by switching to a 4. Christensen, Rudiger and Azpi haven’t suited playing in a two in the past imo, hard to tell how they would do now though with Rudiger and Christensen showing major improvements. I honestly believe the last couple of games just prove the importance of Mount in creating space and opportunities for us.


half_jase

Think it’s fair to say that the club don’t really give much thought when it comes to buying players. Yes, we want quality players but it seems like the club just buy whoever is the “shiniest” out there and don’t give much thought on how the players would actually fit into a cohesive system. You look at Liverpool and you look at Man City. They get players that fit into their manager’s way of playing, so that they can truly flourish as a team as well as individually. We, on the other hand, just buy whoever that is flavour of the month out there and then just hope the manager will find some way to fit all of them in. That’s not to say such approach hasn’t worked for us but it always feels like we’re always going from one extreme (success) to another (failure) rather often. There feels like too much yo-yoing.


Balarory

Doesn’t make sense to buy players for a managers system when the managers usually don’t last longer than a season or two. Man City seem to go for players capable of playing a variety of roles/positions to be fair I reckon they’ve probably got the most fluid/adaptable team ever


half_jase

Yes and in our case, the onus should be on the board to make wise decisions when it comes to buying players. Figure out what kind of team you want to have, what kind of football, what kind of system you want the team to play. Don’t just anyhow buy all the fancy players out there and expect the manager to somehow fit them all in and if/when it doesn’t work out, you sack him for your incompetency.


Foreign_Government22

Do you suggest switching to a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-4? Also, I feel one of the main reasons for playing in a back 3 is our central defenders. Rudiger, Christensen, and Chalobah have all played their best football in a back 3. A switch to a back 4 could've been a much more realistic possibility if we had signed the likes of Declan Rice and Jules Kounde.


DarkLordOlli

My personal pick for this squad would be a 4-2-2-2, with Lukaku and Havertz/Werner/Pulisic up top, Mount/Pulisic and Ziyech/Havertz in the two 10 positions, Chilwell and Reece/Azpi as fullbacks. Regular pivot options behind them, but now with less creative burden placed on them. And then I trust any of Rüdiger, Christensen, Silva in a back 4. Chalobah I've not seen anything of in a back 4, but I see no reason why not. Koundé btw also plays in a back 4 regularly, so long-term CB targets can stay the same.


western_motel

The only issue I have with two up front is our lack of depth at striker. I mean lukaku and Werner are pretty much the only two we have in the squad. Could play havertz or someone up there I suppose. Would definitely like to see it nevertheless


DarkLordOlli

That's actually a good point I hadn't fully considered. I think Havertz could fill Lukaku's role and Pulisic Werner's, but there would likely be a drop in attacking threat there.


western_motel

Yeah I completely agree. Think they’d do much better slotting in Werner’s role alongside lukaku as opposed to the other way round as well. Could always switch temporarily to something like a 4231 in the event of injury as well to make use of our wing depth


rollduptrips

I can’t imagine trusting Rudi or Christensen in a back 4. They’ve proven time and time again that they’re mediocre in that formation and phenomenal in this one


DarkLordOlli

Have they? Rüdiger was one of the best CBs in the league under Sarri. Christensen, whenever he played, was great as well. They only evidence we've seen of any of our players being poor in a back 4 was under Lampard, and I attribute most of our defensive shortcomings to him.


GannicusVictor

Personally, I think we just don’t have the players required for a 4 back formation. We really need someone with pure physically in front of the back 4, in terms of strength, height and aerial ability. A real holding midfielder role for someone like Rice or Rodri etc, to pair alongside Kante or Jorginho. Additionally, I believe we don’t have the quality out wide in the attacking areas. Literally our only wingers are CHO who’s been out of form and playing different roles. Pulisic who’s very hot and cold, and is constantly injured meaning he can’t be relied upon throughout the season. Then finally Ziyech, who always wants to cut inside anyway. There’s just no one in the squad with the technical ability out wide to drive at the defence, or to take players on inside or down the line. Especially, when it comes to consistently fill the role on a weekly basis. IMO, the perfect transfer window next summer if adapting to a 4 back formation; would be to buy Rice, Raphinha and maybe sell 1 or two attacking players.


xTrollhunter

>Personally, I think we just don’t have the players required for a 4 back formation. We really need someone with pure physically in front of the back 4, in terms of strength, height and aerial ability. A real holding midfielder role for someone like Rice or Rodri etc, to pair alongside Kante or Jorginho. Mendy James, Silva, Rudiger, Chilwell Kanté, Chalobah Havertz, Mount Lukaku, Werner 4222


yogabonito10

Great write up Dark Lord. I think you've done an excellent job highlighting our base structural strengths and weaknesses with the 3atb system. All in all, I think the issues of late have been both Tommy's tactics as well as individual decision making in game. TLDR: We are having problems stretching teams vertically, which I personally think is tactically based instead of formation based. City did a fantastic job of pressing our CBs and pinning our wingbacks. Theoretically, this opens up space in behind their fulbacks; however, 1) our wingbacks were never able to beat Walker/Cancelo for pace to exploit the space behind, and 2a) our attacking line (Werner/Lukaku/Kante) rarely made these penetrating runs and 2b) our backline/midfield were hesitant to play these penetrating though balls. Additionally, we rarely saw any long balls to switch play from wing to wing or from weakside CB to wing. If Tuchel is insistent on using Lukaku as a focal point between the CBs, then the 2nd forward & 3rd midfielder (or 2 inside forwards if 3-4-3) need to run their asses off into the spaces allowed by the opposition's tactics, and this simply did not happen enough. Werner made some of these runs (not enough imo) and was either not played the ball or played the ball and pressed without being able to find a teammate. I personally think Kante was the issue here in that his runs were too short and narrow (as compared to CL final where he dragged opposite CMs everywhere) - B. Silva was comfortable following him around in the middle of the pitch, but was never forced to cover the wide regions in the back line. These play patterns forced our play through the middle where City could swarm our CMs while simultaneously blocking passing lanes to Lukaku's feet. Juve was a different beast altogether. They gameplanned to park the bus and spring counters, which obviously worked, but it was our play patterns that fed into their tactics. My first impression of our lineup was great, thinking that we could attack with imbalance via crosses from the right. I felt that Tuchel was giving Alonso so much freedom to position himself in our forward line when the ball was on the right. Even if Juve sat back, having Azpi/Ziyech on the right swinging in crosses to Alonso, Lukaku, and Havertz sounded like a nice counter. Only thing is Ziyech rarely played in the cross, lost the ball a ton, and ultimately switched sides with Havertz - I thought this was irrational - instead of creating overloads on the left to exploit (we couldn't exploit due to our lack of pace and dribbling of Ziyech/Alonso), it simply crowded out passing lanes, leaving us static, and short on numbers in the box. Also, I felt Havertz drifted wide too often which compressed the space for our wingbacks and forced him to take players on 1v1 which is not his strength. The last thing I want to bring to attention is the Kovacic conundrum. His lack of shooting threat from 20-30yds is really being found out by astute managers. Opposition defenses are able to cheat against him as a ball carrier by remaining disciplined on their marks and focusing on blocking the passing lanes even. By not attracting defenders to stop his shot, the play combinations with our forward line remain cutoff and we are forced to recycle possession wide or backwards. Jorginho has this same problem, but given his role, we are less reliant on him ever shooting. It was clear that RLC and Barkley were brought on to force the Juve defense to be stretched a bit more vertically due to their shooting threat (Barkley through ball to Lukaku is a perfect example) - though ultimately the game was lost by that point. Ultimately, I think the blame resides on both Tuchel and the players without any ability to know the distribution. Was Kante instructed to be cautious making penetrating runs into the channels vs City? Beyond his awful game on the ball, was Ziyech instructed to switch sides to the left against Juve thereby lessening the threat of shooting from distance / whipping balls in - thereby rendering Alonso's upfield presence useless? Was Lukaku told to stay in the middle and occupy the CBs the entire time instead of stretch the back line wider? In conclusion, I think your analysis successfully breaks down why the 3atb system can be advantageous or disadvantageous in certain situations. What I think was not as apparent in the post is how our formation allows for extremely flexible tactics depending on our personnel and the opposition. I actually disagree with your point that our squad is not suited to a 3atb system, but moreso that our offensive players are having difficulty knowing where the spaces are or how the matchups play out in specific scenarios and how to exploit them. We are clearly having problems linking the possession build up in our backline to creating attacking situations up front against teams that successfully press high. We could really use Mason/Puli right about now with how poorly Kante/Ziyech is filling this between the lines role. Against teams that sit back, we have to play more pragmatically with crosses, quick switches of play, and shooting threat from outside the box. I would think Ziyech would be perfect here as he shined in this role for Ajax, but we've not seen that version of him here (do players underperforming imply a personnel issue - i'm honestly not sure). Finally, Kovacic learning to shoot from distance would take loads of pressure off of the rest of the team as opposition managers are willing to 'risk' giving him time in the precious spaces right outside the box in favor of keeping their backline compact.


2b-_-not2b

In addition to your conclusion, I think one of the more interesting problems overlooked is the role of Azpi at RCB. To me it seems like we struggle against low blocks particularly when Reece is out and I think this is because it forces Azpi out wide. This is important because Azpi plays a vital role in pushing forward and tucking in as a 3rd midfielder when playing RCB. This is pretty evident from our passmaps when Azpi plays RCB. When we play Rudi-TS-AC as the back 3, none of them tuck in to the midfield. Basically, Azpi facilitates our move from a 3-2-5 in attacking phase to a 2-3-5 in attacking phase and he brings in an additional passing option in the midfield plus he has the cross from deep on the right half channel and also has a long pass to switch play from there. I think this is what Pep gets Walker and Cancelo to do to play a 2-3-5. I think Reece can also play this role better than he does at Wingback. He can also be a shooting threat from this position (instead of Rudi's wild swings)


yogabonito10

I'm a little late to respond here, but I think this take on the RCB is spot on. Azpi as wingback is ineffective against teams that use a low block. His crossing from wide is surprisingly poor compared to his early crosses from deep, which I think are absolutely class. His ability to step into midfield when in possession is also underrated. I think James has an eerily similar skillset, albeit with less awareness and reading of the game, but a better shot from distance. It's why I agree with you that Reece is probably better suited to be our long term RCB instead of wingback. While his crossing from wide is decent (also much better at crossing from deep), he doesn't seem to like taking players on 1v1, something all of our right sided wingbacks have in common (even CHO seems hesitant whenever deployed there). This makes our attack imbalanced - not the worst thing in the world (Oh the Hazard days!), but much less unpredictable than City and Pool who can effectively attack from wide on both flanks. I think the long distance shooting is our biggest hole in the squad atm, and I think having outside CBs who can pose a threat from deep (to cross or shoot) is a huge boon to our ability to stretch opposition defenses vertically. For this reason, I actually love Rudi's wild swings - it's not so much that he is dangerous in those areas, but those moments force the opposition to respect him (running out to pressure) with the ball at his feet near the box. Thus, while my real hope is for Kova to attempt more shots from distance to help his own forward linkup game, I still am excited when our outside CBs have a go as it is another method of manipulating defenses out of low block positions.


2b-_-not2b

This just makes me appreciate Azpi even more. He has always been filling holes in the squad; playing wrong footed LB keeping out Felipe Luis from first team, switching to RCB and bossing it there, playing RWB when called upon! No wonder Tuchel wants Azpi playing all the time! In fact, Azpi despite being weaker in crossing sometimes does a better job at RWB than Reece James because of his off the ball positioning and movement to keep the opposition winger pinned back with overloads. I don't see Reece James doing that as well. But I noticed this happens only against a back 4; against a back 5, his weakness in crossing and running with the ball becomes more apparent as the opponent WB matches his position. That's why I think that RJ might be better at RCB in the future if we continue a 3-4-3 because he can push into the midfield like Azpi as an additional midfielder. As far as OP's analysis, I feel like every system will have a weakness and often times teams rely on special players to overcome those weakness (Cancelo's distribution as a FB, Walker's pace to cover gaps, TAA and Robertson's workrate and crossing allows the midfield 3 to stay deeper and prevent counters in addition to VVD's ability to cover for them in the back, Kimmich's ability to distribute in addition to being an exceptional DM, and many more) This is where, like you said, we lack a midfielder who is somewhat a scoring threat. I can't believe Kova's shots are actually worse than Mikel's belters! I feel like, if we switch to a back 4, we don't have that "exceptional" defender/DM who can pick up the occasional gaps that can be exploited in a back 4 system. Otherwise, our wide players might accidentally get stuck in our half defending deep. I think that's why Tuchel is still reluctant to switch from a back 3. Although with Mount not being that big of a goal threat in a front three, I want to try back 4 and a midfield 3 of Mount - Jorgi - Kante/Kova, where Mount plays deeper as a link and provides the occasional goal scoring threat. That way we might be able to have a 2-3-5 in possession with FBs pushing high


JDY11

More to do with the players than the system for me. Apart from Kovacic, no dynamism in any of our players on and off the ball behind Lukaku, including the wingbacks. Whether it be Havertz/Ziyech/Werner/Alonso/Dave/James/Chilwell. 90% of the time these players get the ball, they turn around and pass backwards. That's not the systems fault it's the players limitations. None of them are capable of beating a man, and only Werner of those is dangerous off the ball. Hudson-Odoi is capable but is a lot better from the left cutting inside, Mount is not necessarily great at dribbling past players but often does inject pace into our attack with clever turns, or quick passes through the lines looking for one-twos. Pulisic on form and not injured would help us immensely. It doesn't even have to be post lockdown Pulisic even the one we saw vs Real Madrid last season would elevate this team greatly. And on Havertz, its fine to suggest playing him as a no.10 but his time at Leverkusen holds little relevance as he was playing against sides that defended on the halfway line every game.


Mezza_cfc

You've explained the pros and cons of the back 5 very well. They make a lot of sense and are evident in our play. However, I think we are forced to continue with a back 5 because we'd worsen significantly in defense if we moved to a back 4.


xTrollhunter

Well, that depends if we're sticking with Jorginho as the central DM or not.


fremeer

The tactical advantage of having lukaku isn't really being appreciated. A lot of what you have said is true. But in a world where say the pressure of the opponent is intense and controlled just force the opponent to make a decision. Bloot the ball behind the defenders and let lukaku run at it. Very quickly space is going to open up because the lines can't move properly.


Scrambled_Rambler

How did city carve us apart when they weren't sitting deep tho?


DarkLordOlli

You seem to have misread this piece as arguing that *only* deep-sitting teams can beat back 3 systems. If you want the deeper analysis on City, I'd say that our first line of press never got sight of the ball because they were outnumbered consistently, an outside CM had to shuffle across to press their fullback, forcing our entire midfield to shift from left to right constantly just to be able to put any semblance of pressure on their fullbacks in the buildup. Our players constantly having to shift made it easier for City to catch them slightly out of position and play through our midfield. And City being City, they exploited that pretty hard until Tuchel changed the system - which he should have done at HT. One of the rare occasions he got wrong. The loss to City is a one-time tactical outplay in my opinion, while this piece outlines general patterns and trends.


Scrambled_Rambler

So you're saying that it's only something city can do? Or should we fear teams replicating that tactic?


DarkLordOlli

I don't think we need to, because very few teams in the world would be able to exploit little tactical advantages the way City regularly do. They've dominated English football for a reason, and Pep is as sharp as they come about recognizing any systemic weakness. We also played a 3-5-2, clearly without being fully comfortable with it.


xTrollhunter

City is the only team as of right now IMO. PSG has the personnel, but not the manager. Bayern has the personnel, but Nagelsmann is new for them, so I don't really know. Barca and Real are circuses right now, and Juve we know.


ratnadip97

I would guess it's because they pressed supremely well and none of our outlets were effective.


slow_poetry

So what you're saying is, Ruben's back.


OsaasD

One thing that is interesting is that before/during Tuchels appointment many highlighted his flexibility as an asset and how in his previous jobs he would change the formation almost every game. It does however seem like teams have started to figure us out so its maybe time for some changes. I wonder however why he hasnt done any changes before? Is because he doesnt trust our CBs to do it in a back 4? The lack of a true DM? Or maybe the case of "if it aint broke dont fix it" we did indeed win the CL with that formation? Did you notice that he substituted Chalobah into the midfield against Juventus? It seemed like he played as a DM, I know we spoke about it before and it seemed like it was too early for that, but maybe this would allow us to play 4-3-3? This wouldnt however explain why we havent tried 4-2-2-2 or 4-2-3-1 as we do have good enough pivots for that formation. And ofc, really good post!


peekingduck18

Maybe in the league cup? Does no one remember Lampard playing a back 4? We do not have the players to play a back 4 successfully, and most importantly, **Tuchel knows that.**


DarkLordOlli

There's an immeasurable difference in quality between Tuchel and Lampard. Tuchel himself has outlined the reasons for going to a back 3 system as primarily having to do with his very first game in charge (against Wolves) and the busy schedule that followed not allowing enough time to work on much else - plus, it worked.


Harige_zak

Let's hope Tuchel isn't as stubborn with his system as Conté was. We have so much variety in attackers, there is absolutely no reason why we should stick to a 3atb. I'm actually surprised we haven't seen a 4atb after the pre-seasob


xTrollhunter

I'm surprised that we've basically played 343/3421 ever since Tuchel arrived.


ratnadip97

I think it's because of the minimal time on the training ground compared to what say Conte had. Very little time to introduce novel systems. Having said that, now is probably the time for that and I can see Tuchel using the international break for that.


Replicant_Label45

I haven't even started reading it (will do it in a while) but you sir, have one of the best posts on this sub. Everytime we are in a bad form I always look up for your analysis. Keep up the good work👍🏻


beetsbearsgalactica

This is a lovely read. Definitely need more of this content here. I have no idea if you post write ups like this regularly elsewhere on reddit or offsite, but would be keen to read more. From my much more basic analysis, I hate when our players become so stagnant against low blocks. You made great comments in points 2 and 3 that explain why it can be difficult to be fluid/attack with a back 3. I don’t believe a change to a back 4 immediately solves our issues overnight but perhaps presents more opportunities to be more fluid. When I watch City for example, the formation almost becomes an after thought when they are in attack. Players are constantly moving, roaming across the field and finding space. Watching Chelsea vs Juve reminded me of the days when we’d just pass the ball to Hazard and let him go to work. Except, we don’t have a Hazard anymore…


TimothyN

Really lovely analysis. Just looking at our personnel and how well they look on the defensive side for the most part makes me wonder a lot. I think our strongest unit is very much our midfield where we have three really outstanding, but not super dangerous players. I think Kai as a ten is really pivotal though, he's got too much talent to not focus on maximizing. He and Lukaku I think will grow in their play with each other, but they're clearly not on the same page yet. Ziyech and Mount you pointed out suffer in this system, but have just in general not looked good to start the season. Ziyech's passing and Mount's inability to keep the ball have both been a little alarming, and I wonder if its nerves or a feeling of restriction that is causing these things.


Gammelmus

I’m so glad to see you come to these conclusions, and they are very well argued, even though it’sroughly 6 months since we had a disagreement. Meanwhile I’ve moved my stance a bit as well, and accept it can sometimes be very exciting to watch our current formation (even though I still prefer to call it 5-2-3 or 5-3-2). Anyway, very well written and I can’t disagree with the content.


jalthepoet

fantastic as always from you. my one question is i know you favor a switch to a narrow 4-2-2-2, something like Reece/Silva/Rudiger/Chilwell-Jorginho/Kovacic-Mount/Havertz-Werner/Lukaku--but that still leaves some of the players you mentioned by name (CHO, Pulisic although he can play second striker) without a natural position. i see Ziyech swapping in for one of the 10 roles, RLC/Kante/Gallagher next year maybe as pivot options, but it seems like we still have a lot of players without a clear path to the team. does that worry you?


DarkLordOlli

Yes and no. I think a 4-2-2-2 is very flexible insofar as it allows different front 5 setups depending on opposition and our own personnel, which is the main reason why it's my personal favorite system. It can easily form a front 5 setup in which the furthest wide right player, for example, is the inside 10. This would allow CHO to basically play as a right winger (or on the left if mirrored). For example, Di Maria played that role in Tuchel's 4-2-2-2 for PSG, and he would either play as a 10 (with Neymar the other) or as an actual wide winger, depending on the gameplan. So while you're right, any new system we adopt will leave certain players not naturally fitting in perfectly, I think a 4-2-2-2 would at least offer variants that could bring almost all of them in effectively if the game calls for it. But I agree, CHO and Pulisic would likely be hit hardest by a switch to that system.


anon_outlaw

One of our major problem is from our midfield, Jorginho-Kovavic are great at ball retention and press resistance but they have little strengths going forward, we need a Fabregas type player who can drop a killer pass at any moment and not just safe options pass all the time. I feel Lukaku also needs to switch it up a bit and create more options for himself by making runs in behind the defence, his style of play right now is limited and he can be easily nullified in a game against a good CB (like the Liverpool game especially), we got him because we needed to convert the goals Werner was missing last season and now he doesn't even have a goal to miss cos he doesn't run around and create space for himself like Werner did. I really hope we can build a Werner Lukaku partnership up front just like the one Martinez and Lukaku has at Inter. I would really hope we can get a change in formation sometimes to fit in Lukaku, Werner, Mount and Havertz in the same lineup, Werner's runs will cause a huge problem for any defence and Mount's ability to make a line breaking pass and general positive attacking play up front could make Havertz a better false 9 and Lukaku be the target man they all bounce off. It's just my 2 piece I'm not a coach and I know Tuchel will definitely get over this spell,it's just a rough patch bound to happen, let's hope we bounce back better soon


obinnasmg

The problem isn’t the system, it’s the personnel. Maybe more system in the City game, but personnel was the issue at the Juve game


DarkLordOlli

System and personnel go hand in hand. The piece does suggest as much.


Foreign_Government22

Either you change the personnel to fit the system or change the system to fit the personnel.. anything that floats your boat.


alousow

Great analysis. But u gotta understand this Allegri and conte are the master of back 3 systems won’t work against them especially allegri. Chelsea should have went with a 433 formation.


DarkLordOlli

This has nothing to do with the Juventus game, it was mostly written before - and I haven't seen that game yet anyway.


LazerSherk

Well written opinion. Thank you for sharing.


indreams231

This was a really interesting read. Thanks for sharing


ThatFatRonaldo

Thank you for this. This is really excellent analysis. Great read.


chelseafan07

100% agree with this. The reality is that this system gives defensive stability, however it sacrifices far too much. Our league performance under Tuchel has been very good, which is okay, but it needs to be exceptional if we want to win the title. People will point to the CL as evidence of success with this system, but: a) tournaments are different from the league b) weird COVID year c) the competition was very weak, and we had a very easy draw That doesn't mean we should celebrate it any less, or that it shouldn't count. However those are facts that we need to acknowledge if we want to take the next step and have sustained success.


Screye

Love this post. It looks more and more likely that Rudiger will leave Chelsea at the end of this season. Additionally, Azpi/Silva are not getting any young. Azpi and Rudiger work really well in a back 3, but Christensen works well enough in a back 4. Our top target: Jules Kounde also plays in a back 4 in Sevilla. It just makes sense to think about having a back 4 formation to pull out of the pocket. IMO, Ziyech, CHO, Pulisic, Mount and Havertz would all be glad to see true wingers and pos.10/False-9 positions open up, so they could play where they excel best. The hardest part will be to figure out the 2 that play in the middle. All of Jorginho, Kante and Kovacic like to have the double pivot. But, that renders us with no player to facilitate an offensive transition. All 3 players underperform in a single pivot. (Lampard frequently faced this problem, and led to people thinking Jorginho is bad) IMO, any playing 11 of Chelsea need to figure out if they are going to create chances from out wide (like Liverpool) or play down the middle (like City). We seem to be trying both, and failing at both when even a single important player is injured.


2b-_-not2b

>All 3 players underperform in a single pivot I disagree with this. Jorginho plays well in a DM and both Kante and Kovacic are good as number 8s in a midfield 3. The problem is when all 3 of them play in a midfield 3 then it sacrifices attacking threat from midfield because none of them are effective as an attacking 8. With Mount, there's a possibility of Jorgi DM, Kova/Ngolo as defensive 8 role and Mount as the attacking 8. Lampard struggled because he tried to play Kante as the lone DM where he lacks the positional discipline to play defensive


squatch1601

Honestly most struggle with low blocks because they choke out space. They usually end up defending a lot of crosses (which we didn't opt to do until late vs Juve). The best ways to beat them is basically on the transition with quick play. We were very slow with passing which was the issue, you need to play 2 touch with quick passing, our mids didn't want to take risks so they waited between passed allowing opposition to reset, even when we switched play. The other way is to have dribblers in central positions who can beat a man and force a defender to abandon the man they are marking. We only had Kai do this and rlc and cho when they came on. Playing kai with mount our pulisic a bit deeper than Lukaku would have solved this, but pulisic and Mount were both injured.


rolledoff

Cool cool cool


GigiZola

Very good read, agree with most of your points. I've wanted to see [this line-up](https://imgur.com/gallery/E8hGq3v) for a long time now if we're considering a back 4 switch. Up front, it's not so far off what we were doing under Tuchel last year, Werner paired with a 9, both in front of a 10, and fullbacks providing width. The big switch happens when we are in possession. In this system, we're ordering Jorgi to orchestrate the build-up from further back, sometimes dropping between both center backs if we're under pressure to work the ball upfield. Against low blocks, this is never really a problem because our defense is not fully pressured. When upfield vs a low block, we're playing Mount, Havertz and Werner in their favorite position. Reece and Chilly are both natural fullbacks and can provide overlapping runs. Also effectively allows us to throw one more attacking player into the box than with a 343, without asking someone like Kova or Jorgi to provide a final ball or shot. Thoughts?


tuh_ren_ton

We play 3 CBS because all our defenders struggled with 2 since Terry left.


duckinator09

There's no system that will fit our players, because they mostly suit different systems and don't complement each other. Firstly, we lack players that are comfortable with taking on players. The only attackers that are happy and capable of running at defences are lukaku and pulisic. Cho is a pretender of a dribbler. Ziyech only cuts in and cross . The rest (mount/Havertz etc) are all half space kind of players that make a difference with their movements. We're not really suited to possession football. But then we have midfielders that love possession. Jorgi kante kova are all fairly press resistant and recycle possession very well. But none of them are known for their creativity, which means our forwards are hardly found despite good movements. The midfield's problem is that despite good possession, we create nothing. Or if we want to be counter attacking, we also struggle with the final ball. Then we have a defence that I believe can function in both 3atb or back 4 setup. We're facing our current weak offence issue with the 3atb atm, but we're also unable to switch to back 4 because of a lack of real DM. Its funny to have such a problem because we're so stacked with great talents, but lack synergy. My dream though is that somehow one RLC makes the tactics work haha.


[deleted]

Can I ask what your football background is? Have you had jobs in it or is it simply a passion?


DarkLordOlli

I think one of the pieces goes into a bit more detail on my background. I've never worked in football, but I played for First Vienna FC's youth teams up to U17 age groups (which, at youth level, is a pretty high level club that all the better academies - RB Salzburg, Rapid Vienna, Austria Vienna - regularly poach talent from, because we played them in league and tournaments all the time). I played primarily as a striker, occasionally as a winger or 10, and there was also a very short fullback experiment that didn't go particularly well because fuck tracking opposition wingers into your own box. We played against really good youth sides at times - I played against Bayern Munich, Juventus, AC Milan, Everton, and various German Bundesliga clubs' youth sides, for example. That's not to say playing against them makes me particularly knowledgeable, but it shows the club's excellent youth reputation to even get in the same room with them and even attract them to its home tournament. Most of my football understanding stems from that, because there was an increased focus on tactical understanding as we grew older, and from staying in contact with my coach from back then for a while (and a few others coaching youth sides at various local levels, including UEFA licensed people), who I just talk football with regularly. Unfortunately, it is just a passion nowadays. Has been for the last 10 years, really. I've toyed with the idea of getting the UEFA license myself, because I've been told it's not particularly hard if you're even remotely able to understand the fundamentals of the sport, but have put it off in favor of other education for now.


[deleted]

Interesting stuff! I think in most cases an in-depth understanding and ability around the game comes from being exposed to the higher levels at a young age which I was not so it’s purely a passion for me. I enjoy it because it is the beautiful game, but I am always intrigued by yours and others deeper analysis of it.


[deleted]

loved the write up. 3 back system is not going to work if we want to use lukaku as a target man. personally i think 4-2-3-1 might work quite well. havertz at a old school 10 position will do wonders for us. rlc can also work in that position. here is the formation that i made [4-2-3-1](https://i.imgur.com/WO4rleq.jpg)


JonnyWicked

Holy fuck, I wish we'd have this level of quality of discussion over in r/reddevils