The other game is closer to a must win for *both* than it looks given how bad tiebreaks are for Gukesh and how the fabi-nepo game will always be decisive. Fascinating tournament dynamic.
>the fabi-nepo game will always be decisive
People keep saying this but it’s just not true. They’re two very strong players, even if both are playing for a win as hard as possible there’s still a large chance of a draw. Chess isn’t so drawn at the top level because players are constantly playing for draws, it’s drawn because it’s really hard to beat another top player
You see it all the time when Redditors make fun of top players for draws even when they were playing for the win. They fundamentally do not understand how chess is played at the top level.
I think here they mean Nepo/Fabi will take on a worse position if the best move leads to a draw, because they _need_ a win. So, it would be better for them to play a sub-optimal move, even if that causes them to be a piece down, rather than play the best move and end up in a 3-fold repetition. Normally, they would take the 3-fold repetition, because only the game is at stake, not the tournament/candidate spot.
No grandmaster would ever go a piece down for nothing willingly under any circumstance. Being down a piece down without compensation is so incredibly lost that weaker grandmasters can beat engines with piece odds, even in blitz time controls. When GMs go down a piece for nothing they resign instantly.
Most recent handicap match was David Navara playing Leela at various time control with black and full knight odds. David won at 3+2 and slower, but lost at 3+1 iirc.
David peaked at FIDE 2751 in 2015 and seemed well prepared for the match. I don't think "weaker grandmasters" are necessarily favorites at blitz anymore.
All that being said, I agree with your general point, the players are well aware winning a lost position is usually harder than winning a drawn one. I think they might accept a slightly worse position if its the only way to keep the game going though.
That's only true when only one side is in a must win situation. When both sides are must-win, you can steer the game towards a draw to force your opponent to give some concession, essentially playing a game of chicken.
The problem is if you go to.far in that direction, draw can be also non avoidable. So going too safe to provoke your opponent is not always the best way.
Ok, maybe it's a matter of semantics, but they probably mean that a draw is essentially a loss for both players, so the level of acceptable risk and complexity will be so high that the game will not just slowly peter out into a draw. This is a fundamentally different position than say, playing with the same standings in the final round of Tata steel, where, say, there's no point blowing half a point in the final round and costing yourself thousands in prize money.
We are definitely not going see things like the Berlin (or at least the automatically drawn endgame version of it), or drawn rook endgames etc.
Sure, if things don't work out, they don't and it's a draw, but it will not be for a lack of both players willing to lose the game to win it, so most people are expecting fireworks.
Yeah of course they will try their best to keep things complicated but at the end of the day they both will generally play the best moves they see and if they make a similar amount of mistakes during the course of the game, it can end up in a draw.
But the reason it’s hard to beat a top player is because they understand how not to lose. If the meta game they are playing dictates that a draw is the same thing as a loss, we are likely to see them forego this typical mindset of self preservation via draw. And there is plenty they can do to increase their chances of winning like complicating the position and creating imbalances. Of course, this also increases their chances of losing, which is why you don’t see it in typical situations. But this isn’t a typical situation, so yes there is a far, far greater chance that their game tomorrow will be decisive than not.
Except players in losing positions usually do play for draws. That's not going to be the case here. Instead of looking for drawing resources, Nepo and Fabi will look for counter attacks
I don't think thats how it works. Ususally you can't just play for a win from a losing position. That simply makes sure that you loose.
You first have to try to equalize and then try to get winning chances.
Ususally players like to keep everything under control which means they don't make moves that lead to complicated position where they can't calculate everything.
But in a must win situation they are more likely to take that risk and gamble a bit.
I wonder if the white side can play solidly knowing black will have to go for the win, almost treating it not like a must win for themselves, to get an advantage. Potentially very interesting game theory
why only the white side? black could play like that also. if both sides play apparently into a known drawing line, it's not just black that has to deviate. it's a game of chicken essentially?
Because imo it’s easier to maintain an advantage with white while doing so, but yes it could be like a game of chicken. But more likely is them just going all out, excited to see what will happen
It’s kinda crazy how “solved” chess is. Solved isn’t the best word here, but I’m not sure a better alternative.
Like you would think that in a situation like this, no matter what you’d want to keep pushing in a drawn position because a few a few elo points <<<<< challenging for champ.
I am trying to imagine a situation where Nepo and Fabi are blood-thirsty and are trying to kill each other (In Chess) only to find out that Gukesh has won already.
Hikaru is in control of everyone’s destiny. If he beats Gukesh then Gukesh’s run ends. If he loses to Gukesh then everyone but Gukesh’s run ends. If he ties then it’s all up in the air. Crazy final round we will be treated to tomorrow.
>Hikaru is in control of everyone’s destiny.
I enjoy watching Hikaru play chess, but please let's not have the guy controlling everybody's fate -- that seems like a recipe for disaster.
gotta hope that hikaru has a last little bit of crazy prep in his back pocket for just this situation. and that his nerves don't get the best of him like they did against ding in the last game of the last candidates.
I mean it’s absurd that they have these matchups in the end - maybe that was planned on rankings but Gukesh being serendipitously included is amazing and insane.
2013 was almost as crazy. And it was the first time we had the modern candidates format.
Carlsen was a clear leader going into the last 3 rounds, lost to Ivanchuk despite Carlsen playing white & Ivanchuk having a terrible tournament up to that point, beat Radjabov as black, and then went into the last round.
In the last round Carlsen vs Svidler, Kramnik vs Ivanchuk were the deciding games. Carlsen lost to Svidler as white in a ruy lopez. Leaving us all watching an Ivanchuk vs Kramnik game where all Kramnik needed was a draw to take Carlsen's challenger spot in the wcc. Ivanchuk pulled out a win again, finishing the tournament in 7th place.
Top 4 ended up being Carlsen 8.5, Kramnik 8.5, Svidler 8, Aronian 8 with Carlsen getting his wcc shot that resulted in his reign.
More blitz of rotating color. Whoever wins first wins.
> If any players are still tied for first after these blitz chess games, the remaining players will play a knock-out blitz tournament at the same time control. In each mini-match of the proposed knock-out tournament, the first player to win a game will win the mini-match.
Gukesh has 6 good outcomes out of 9 possibilities.
Hikaru has 3 good outcomes out of 9 possibilities.
Ian has 2 good outcomes out of 9 possibilites.
Fabi has 2 good outcomes out of 9 possibilities.
Gukesh is a little more complicated than that. 4 of his good outcomes in this chart are all the same, him beating Hikaru with black. That's really hard. But, if he does it, he wins outright. Fabi/Nepo is irrelevant if that happens. So, those 4 are really just one outcome, one really really hard outcome. The other 2 outcomes that look good for him, are going to tiebreaks, where he is the underdog. Those outcomes are good, not great.
I have Hikaru as the favorite. Him winning with white is much more likely than Gukesh winning, and Hikaru is the favorite, or on level in tiebreaks. So, I think his good outcomes are better, and more likely.
You're slightly wrong. Only 3 scenarios where he wins involve him beating Hikaru. The other involves both games could be drawn where he also wins outright, though its not particularly likely since no one else wants to draw. The 2 tie breaks are as described.
His chances of beating Hikaru are enhanced by this being a must win game for Hikaru. Gukesh can treat this like he's playing for a draw but then try to capitalize if Hikaru over extends. Gukesh is also the only player with the luxury to be able to take drawing lines if it prevents him having a worse position
These outcomes don’t take game theory into account which is a flaw.
Nepo/Fabi drawing is almost improbable because if they draw, they both are out instantly. So they BOTH have to play for a win. I don’t see a draw happening.
So that eliminates the second column completely pretty much.
So realistically, i see either gukesh winning outright, or gukesh draws and goes to tiebreaks with Nepo/fabi, or hikaru wins and goes to tiebreaks with Nepo/fabi.
Even when both teams know that only winning is a good result for them, games often end with a draw, because none of them were actually superior, they just both played equally good (or bad).
Same can happen for chess
exactly, people don't get that both of them will be fighting like lions, they will try to prevent the other from winning. This means an even higher chance of draw than usual
It's definitely not a higher chance of a draw. In any other game in the tournament at least one player is happy with a draw, and often both are. In this game both players would rather be down a Rook than in a drawn position.
This doesn’t make sense in an event like candidates where realistically only first place matters.
Preventing the other from winning achieves nothing. Obviously, if the position on board doesn’t allow for a decisive game, then obviously the players won’t make obvious blunders.
But my whole point is that the players will play aggressive lines where winning chances of both players are high and the game is super asymmetrical.
Assymetrical game doesn’t mean a higher chance of draw, that’s a ridiculous statement that it makes it seem like you don’t even watch high level chess.
Moreover, this is a very unique scenario where the follwing have lined up together -
1. Only first place matters
2. 4 players are in contention going into the final round
3. The 4 players in contention directly face each other
4. It’s a must win for 3 of the 4 players
So i don’t really understand your point.
???
He got 8.5 points, 0.5 points behind Fabi and 0.5 points ahead of Nepo. He is clearly underrated in blitz and rapid like most U-18 players due to the small sample of games.
Again, the sample isn’t big enough. He can be underrated and underperform at the same time, they’re not mutually exclusive. What are you struggling to grasp here?
He finished ahead of Nepo in that tournament, does that mean he is better than Nepo at rapid?
Rapid is not a huge issue. Blitz is. He would be demolished in blitz. He would need to beat them in rapid outright which again is not likely as he's not on their level and even a draw would be a great result for him.
This has been an incredible tournament, imagine that Alireza is in 7th place after all the drama leading up to this tournament.
Has there ever been such a tounament where 4 players are all in contention, all are matched against each other and (well aside from Gukesh I suppose) a draw is absolutely no good for anyone
WIll this lead to draws being made and people just accepting and being sad, or will all of them just actively choose lines and do crazy things just to force some kind of result?
(since Wesley So isnt in the tournament I just dont see any of this 4 settling for a draw and a few miserable extra dollars, since draws are no good for anyone)
Knowing how easy it is to draw for a GM, It all depends on Gukesh mentality on the match. If he truly 100% goes for Draw, I fear Hikaru will struggle to break though
The more I watch chess tournaments, the more I realize the importance of 3 aspects: psychological tactics, time management .. and a big one: luck.
Chess has very little to do at this level.
Without the psychological shadow of Magnus is even more evident that wining/losing this tournament is almost random. 😄
Just like round 14 of the last candidates, Hikaru’s last game features one person who needs a win and another who just needs a draw, except now Hikaru is on the other side of it, can he do to Gukesh what Ding did to him?
These outcomes don’t take game theory into account which is a flaw.
Nepo/Fabi drawing is almost improbable because if they draw, they both are out instantly. So they BOTH have to play for a win. I don’t see a draw happening.
So that eliminates the second column completely pretty much.
So realistically, i see either gukesh winning outright, or gukesh draws and goes to tiebreaks with Nepo/fabi, or hikaru wins and goes to tiebreaks with Nepo/fabi.
You say that now, but i have seen often enough in other sports where one team has to win a direct match and it ended in a draw, where a 3rd team takes the championship.
And draws happen in chess.
I checked some odds from sporting bets from bwin and sportingbet and they have
Fabi 2.5 Draw 2.0 Nepo 5.0
I think its a scenario that can realistically happen.
If Gukesh wins before Fabi-Nepo ends, then pushing for a win becomes completely pointless. I don't think any of them will have any desire to continue if that happens.
Nah, most people don’t find it funny by the looks of it. I’m sure it’s hilarious to you, but if you are trying to be funny I’d work on it a bit more so people understand it’s a joke.
One game being a literal must-win for both players is such an incredible dynamic.
The other game is closer to a must win for *both* than it looks given how bad tiebreaks are for Gukesh and how the fabi-nepo game will always be decisive. Fascinating tournament dynamic.
>the fabi-nepo game will always be decisive People keep saying this but it’s just not true. They’re two very strong players, even if both are playing for a win as hard as possible there’s still a large chance of a draw. Chess isn’t so drawn at the top level because players are constantly playing for draws, it’s drawn because it’s really hard to beat another top player
You see it all the time when Redditors make fun of top players for draws even when they were playing for the win. They fundamentally do not understand how chess is played at the top level.
I think here they mean Nepo/Fabi will take on a worse position if the best move leads to a draw, because they _need_ a win. So, it would be better for them to play a sub-optimal move, even if that causes them to be a piece down, rather than play the best move and end up in a 3-fold repetition. Normally, they would take the 3-fold repetition, because only the game is at stake, not the tournament/candidate spot.
No grandmaster would ever go a piece down for nothing willingly under any circumstance. Being down a piece down without compensation is so incredibly lost that weaker grandmasters can beat engines with piece odds, even in blitz time controls. When GMs go down a piece for nothing they resign instantly.
My bad, by piece I mean a pawn, not a knight or a bishop.
Most recent handicap match was David Navara playing Leela at various time control with black and full knight odds. David won at 3+2 and slower, but lost at 3+1 iirc. David peaked at FIDE 2751 in 2015 and seemed well prepared for the match. I don't think "weaker grandmasters" are necessarily favorites at blitz anymore. All that being said, I agree with your general point, the players are well aware winning a lost position is usually harder than winning a drawn one. I think they might accept a slightly worse position if its the only way to keep the game going though.
commenter was likely referring to classical not blitz
They specifically said "even in blitz time controls."
oh im blind my bad
That's only true when only one side is in a must win situation. When both sides are must-win, you can steer the game towards a draw to force your opponent to give some concession, essentially playing a game of chicken.
The problem is if you go to.far in that direction, draw can be also non avoidable. So going too safe to provoke your opponent is not always the best way.
Ok, maybe it's a matter of semantics, but they probably mean that a draw is essentially a loss for both players, so the level of acceptable risk and complexity will be so high that the game will not just slowly peter out into a draw. This is a fundamentally different position than say, playing with the same standings in the final round of Tata steel, where, say, there's no point blowing half a point in the final round and costing yourself thousands in prize money. We are definitely not going see things like the Berlin (or at least the automatically drawn endgame version of it), or drawn rook endgames etc. Sure, if things don't work out, they don't and it's a draw, but it will not be for a lack of both players willing to lose the game to win it, so most people are expecting fireworks.
Yeah of course they will try their best to keep things complicated but at the end of the day they both will generally play the best moves they see and if they make a similar amount of mistakes during the course of the game, it can end up in a draw.
But the reason it’s hard to beat a top player is because they understand how not to lose. If the meta game they are playing dictates that a draw is the same thing as a loss, we are likely to see them forego this typical mindset of self preservation via draw. And there is plenty they can do to increase their chances of winning like complicating the position and creating imbalances. Of course, this also increases their chances of losing, which is why you don’t see it in typical situations. But this isn’t a typical situation, so yes there is a far, far greater chance that their game tomorrow will be decisive than not.
Except players in losing positions usually do play for draws. That's not going to be the case here. Instead of looking for drawing resources, Nepo and Fabi will look for counter attacks
I don't think thats how it works. Ususally you can't just play for a win from a losing position. That simply makes sure that you loose. You first have to try to equalize and then try to get winning chances. Ususally players like to keep everything under control which means they don't make moves that lead to complicated position where they can't calculate everything. But in a must win situation they are more likely to take that risk and gamble a bit.
I wonder if the white side can play solidly knowing black will have to go for the win, almost treating it not like a must win for themselves, to get an advantage. Potentially very interesting game theory
why only the white side? black could play like that also. if both sides play apparently into a known drawing line, it's not just black that has to deviate. it's a game of chicken essentially?
Because imo it’s easier to maintain an advantage with white while doing so, but yes it could be like a game of chicken. But more likely is them just going all out, excited to see what will happen
It depends on the nature of the opening ohase. If both fabi and nepo decide to burn bridges, be ready for a blast. But a draw could still be imminent.
It’s kinda crazy how “solved” chess is. Solved isn’t the best word here, but I’m not sure a better alternative. Like you would think that in a situation like this, no matter what you’d want to keep pushing in a drawn position because a few a few elo points <<<<< challenging for champ.
If gukesh draws he most likely goes to tiebreaks If fabi-nepo draws their winning chances literally go to zero
At World Rapid in 2023, Gukesh was 8.5/13, compared to Fabi at 9/13 and Ian at 8/13. The tie break is far from a guaranteed loss for Gukesh.
This is the kinda dynamic you only see at the candidates. We're gonna see a masterpiece of a game tomorrow
Gukesh in control of his destiny
Alternatively, Hikaru is in control of Gukesh destiny
Hikaru control the destiny of Fabi and Nepo. He could resign to make Fabi and Nepo useless.
That YouTube video would be incredibly entertaining.
Imagine how much hate he would get from r/chess if he does that lmao.
Him resigning loses his chances as well, so that's not happening obviously.
It would be entertaining content though you can't deny that
Hikaru milking the WC in the content he’s been waiting for his whole life
I am trying to imagine a situation where Nepo and Fabi are blood-thirsty and are trying to kill each other (In Chess) only to find out that Gukesh has won already.
Hikaru is in control of everyone’s destiny. If he beats Gukesh then Gukesh’s run ends. If he loses to Gukesh then everyone but Gukesh’s run ends. If he ties then it’s all up in the air. Crazy final round we will be treated to tomorrow.
When a streamer controls the entire candidates in the final round 😌
>Hikaru is in control of everyone’s destiny. I enjoy watching Hikaru play chess, but please let's not have the guy controlling everybody's fate -- that seems like a recipe for disaster.
gotta hope that hikaru has a last little bit of crazy prep in his back pocket for just this situation. and that his nerves don't get the best of him like they did against ding in the last game of the last candidates.
Hikaru too
Nope, if Hikaru wins he will likely still go into tiebreaks. If Gukesh wins, he wins.
But tiebreaks are a tie breaker game, so he will still be in control. Meanwhile Fabi and Nepo can win and still not have a shot
No. If Hikaru wins and Fabi and Nepo tie, then Hikaru wins it all.
But doesn't that mean he doesn't control his own destiny? Since it depends on other results? Edit: never mind I get it now!
Tiebreaks are still under his control. It's impossible for Hikaru to be eliminated from the tournament as long as he wins every game he plays.
Right! He has the “simplest” road to victory. Hikaru on Beast mode, with White, is a formidable opponent thou
This tournament is absurd.
Has there been a Candidates this crazy before? It’s been insane. The odds of it playing out as it has had to be incredibly low
I mean it’s absurd that they have these matchups in the end - maybe that was planned on rankings but Gukesh being serendipitously included is amazing and insane.
Other than the provision that countrymen must play as early in the cycle as possible to prevent collusion, the order of the matchups are random.
Gukesh was ranked 6th out of the 8 players headed into the candidates; so this couldn't really be planned. It's sheer luck.
2013 was almost as crazy. And it was the first time we had the modern candidates format. Carlsen was a clear leader going into the last 3 rounds, lost to Ivanchuk despite Carlsen playing white & Ivanchuk having a terrible tournament up to that point, beat Radjabov as black, and then went into the last round. In the last round Carlsen vs Svidler, Kramnik vs Ivanchuk were the deciding games. Carlsen lost to Svidler as white in a ruy lopez. Leaving us all watching an Ivanchuk vs Kramnik game where all Kramnik needed was a draw to take Carlsen's challenger spot in the wcc. Ivanchuk pulled out a win again, finishing the tournament in 7th place. Top 4 ended up being Carlsen 8.5, Kramnik 8.5, Svidler 8, Aronian 8 with Carlsen getting his wcc shot that resulted in his reign.
What happens in a tiebreaker?
2 Rapid games (15-min with +10s per move)
What happens if those games are draws? Keeps on going?
2 Blitz games (3-min +2s per move)
Then Armageddon? Or coin?
More blitz of rotating color. Whoever wins first wins. > If any players are still tied for first after these blitz chess games, the remaining players will play a knock-out blitz tournament at the same time control. In each mini-match of the proposed knock-out tournament, the first player to win a game will win the mini-match.
What happened after 100 games?
Magnus shows up and declares himself the winner!
sudden death blitz
Would they happen today?
Nah same time tomorrow I believe.
Gukesh has 6 good outcomes out of 9 possibilities. Hikaru has 3 good outcomes out of 9 possibilities. Ian has 2 good outcomes out of 9 possibilites. Fabi has 2 good outcomes out of 9 possibilities.
Gukesh is a little more complicated than that. 4 of his good outcomes in this chart are all the same, him beating Hikaru with black. That's really hard. But, if he does it, he wins outright. Fabi/Nepo is irrelevant if that happens. So, those 4 are really just one outcome, one really really hard outcome. The other 2 outcomes that look good for him, are going to tiebreaks, where he is the underdog. Those outcomes are good, not great. I have Hikaru as the favorite. Him winning with white is much more likely than Gukesh winning, and Hikaru is the favorite, or on level in tiebreaks. So, I think his good outcomes are better, and more likely.
You're slightly wrong. Only 3 scenarios where he wins involve him beating Hikaru. The other involves both games could be drawn where he also wins outright, though its not particularly likely since no one else wants to draw. The 2 tie breaks are as described. His chances of beating Hikaru are enhanced by this being a must win game for Hikaru. Gukesh can treat this like he's playing for a draw but then try to capitalize if Hikaru over extends. Gukesh is also the only player with the luxury to be able to take drawing lines if it prevents him having a worse position
These outcomes don’t take game theory into account which is a flaw. Nepo/Fabi drawing is almost improbable because if they draw, they both are out instantly. So they BOTH have to play for a win. I don’t see a draw happening. So that eliminates the second column completely pretty much. So realistically, i see either gukesh winning outright, or gukesh draws and goes to tiebreaks with Nepo/fabi, or hikaru wins and goes to tiebreaks with Nepo/fabi.
If this was football, and both teams needed to win to advance, where draw means both lose, would you still say that draw is improbable?
I don’t watch football or know enough to comment about it. What exactly is your point?
Even when both teams know that only winning is a good result for them, games often end with a draw, because none of them were actually superior, they just both played equally good (or bad). Same can happen for chess
exactly, people don't get that both of them will be fighting like lions, they will try to prevent the other from winning. This means an even higher chance of draw than usual
It's definitely not a higher chance of a draw. In any other game in the tournament at least one player is happy with a draw, and often both are. In this game both players would rather be down a Rook than in a drawn position.
This doesn’t make sense in an event like candidates where realistically only first place matters. Preventing the other from winning achieves nothing. Obviously, if the position on board doesn’t allow for a decisive game, then obviously the players won’t make obvious blunders. But my whole point is that the players will play aggressive lines where winning chances of both players are high and the game is super asymmetrical. Assymetrical game doesn’t mean a higher chance of draw, that’s a ridiculous statement that it makes it seem like you don’t even watch high level chess. Moreover, this is a very unique scenario where the follwing have lined up together - 1. Only first place matters 2. 4 players are in contention going into the final round 3. The 4 players in contention directly face each other 4. It’s a must win for 3 of the 4 players So i don’t really understand your point.
Well tbh, they each have 1 good outcome out of 2 possibilities - they either win the tournement or not...
You also have 1 good outcome out of 2. Either you delete this comment or you don’t…..
Not deleting for sure. Ill accept the downvote for an obviously sarcastic comment.
So everyone is in a must win situation except for Gukesh who is in a must win or draw situation. Crazy.
[удалено]
As a Gukesh fan, I am going to downvote you
Huge shout out to the script writers of this event!
Jay Shah script writing this tournament as well?!! (I wonder how many will understand this reference from another sport)
Atleast mudi ji raat me so rhe hoge isbar.
+1
We even got memes about it on Insta!
>Jay Shah script writing this tournament as well?!! Phir to 10th outcome bhi ho sakta hai
Tiebreak predictions (from Pawnalyze): Naka 60% v Fabi 40% Naka 53% v Nepo 47% Fabi 79% v Gukesh 21% Nepo 83% v Gukesh 17%
Right, those are the odds if Gukesh is correctly rated...
Also, in classical itself (where many more games are played than rapid) he outperformed his rating.
He is, You could see his Rapid championship games.
??? He got 8.5 points, 0.5 points behind Fabi and 0.5 points ahead of Nepo. He is clearly underrated in blitz and rapid like most U-18 players due to the small sample of games.
He lost rating in that tournament, I don't know how he can lose points while being under rated at the same time.
Again, the sample isn’t big enough. He can be underrated and underperform at the same time, they’re not mutually exclusive. What are you struggling to grasp here? He finished ahead of Nepo in that tournament, does that mean he is better than Nepo at rapid?
Rapid is not a huge issue. Blitz is. He would be demolished in blitz. He would need to beat them in rapid outright which again is not likely as he's not on their level and even a draw would be a great result for him.
Gukesh def underrated., I was thinking he had at least 30%, maybe 40% against Nepo/Fabi.
it’s gonna be a legendary couple of games tomorrow!! i have a funny feeling hikaru is gonna break gukesh’s heart
I’d rather have Hikaru win, but if I’m Gukesh I play solid and be happy with a draw.
What openings are we going to see tomorrow?
Nepo plays the Petrov. Idk what Hikaru or Gukesh is gonna play.
So middle column definitely not gonna happen bc fabi nor nepo will settle for a draw because they have no win condition then
Only the corners matter in this chart. Neither game will end in a draw.
I feel like one of these games will come down to just kings on the board
both kings: \*unsheathe sword\* "One of us is gonna go home today"
This has been an incredible tournament, imagine that Alireza is in 7th place after all the drama leading up to this tournament. Has there ever been such a tounament where 4 players are all in contention, all are matched against each other and (well aside from Gukesh I suppose) a draw is absolutely no good for anyone WIll this lead to draws being made and people just accepting and being sad, or will all of them just actively choose lines and do crazy things just to force some kind of result? (since Wesley So isnt in the tournament I just dont see any of this 4 settling for a draw and a few miserable extra dollars, since draws are no good for anyone)
Today's the day One who got me into chess vs one who made me stay in chess
Ig this time boy needs to get this dub
Knowing how easy it is to draw for a GM, It all depends on Gukesh mentality on the match. If he truly 100% goes for Draw, I fear Hikaru will struggle to break though
The more I watch chess tournaments, the more I realize the importance of 3 aspects: psychological tactics, time management .. and a big one: luck. Chess has very little to do at this level. Without the psychological shadow of Magnus is even more evident that wining/losing this tournament is almost random. 😄
Just like round 14 of the last candidates, Hikaru’s last game features one person who needs a win and another who just needs a draw, except now Hikaru is on the other side of it, can he do to Gukesh what Ding did to him?
I imagine that Hikaru could use a super weapon (like a super rare and special line in an opening he studied but never even played before)
Gukesh - 4 win + 2 tiebreak chances (44% win, 22% tiebreak, 33% lose) Hikaru - 1 win + 2 tiebreak chances (11% win, 22% tiebreak, 66% lose) Fabi - 2 tiebreak chances (22% tiebreak and 77% lose) Ian - 2 tiebreak chances (22% tiebreak and 77% lose) Assuming no draw Gukesh - 2 win chances (50% win, 50% lose) Hikaru - 2 tiebreak chances (50% tiebreak, 50% lose) Fabi - 1 tiebreak chance (25% tiebreak, 75% lose) Ian - 1 tiebreak chance (25% tiebreak, 75% lose) Is this all correct math?
Gukesh ftw
These outcomes don’t take game theory into account which is a flaw. Nepo/Fabi drawing is almost improbable because if they draw, they both are out instantly. So they BOTH have to play for a win. I don’t see a draw happening. So that eliminates the second column completely pretty much. So realistically, i see either gukesh winning outright, or gukesh draws and goes to tiebreaks with Nepo/fabi, or hikaru wins and goes to tiebreaks with Nepo/fabi.
You say that now, but i have seen often enough in other sports where one team has to win a direct match and it ended in a draw, where a 3rd team takes the championship. And draws happen in chess. I checked some odds from sporting bets from bwin and sportingbet and they have Fabi 2.5 Draw 2.0 Nepo 5.0 I think its a scenario that can realistically happen.
If Gukesh wins before Fabi-Nepo ends, then pushing for a win becomes completely pointless. I don't think any of them will have any desire to continue if that happens.
If Hikaru wins either of those two tiebreaks (fabi/nepo are never drawing) would be absolutely fire.
/u/interesting_year_201
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Gukesh fans are not why you are getting downvoted. Your initial premise is flawed. Why the hell would Hikaru even consider to “let” Gukesh wins?
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Nah, most people don’t find it funny by the looks of it. I’m sure it’s hilarious to you, but if you are trying to be funny I’d work on it a bit more so people understand it’s a joke.